Charles Payne Show August 25, 2023

But I think it says that the hodge are not in yet for treasury yields. I'm gonna bring a monetary macro dot com ci o joseph weighing joe joseph. The does this mean that the fed it's also continues to high-grade and I think that's what happened. I believe so that's actually what I took from power speech today as danielle demargino but mention it. The speech sounded really much like you with what he was saying before but what really struck out to me was that he mentioned commenting on the economy is that the if the economy continues to stay strong and it looks like growth is above trend looks like it's accelerating what's a second-seamers spending is strong that they might have to hike rates again. So I think the fed isn't on yet and you can see that being priced in the markets today as well.

但我认为这意思是尚未就国库收益率达成共识。我将带来一位名叫乔瑟夫·韦恩的货币宏观专家，他是monetary macro dot com的首席信息官。这是否意味着美联储也将继续高利率政策呢？我认为是这样的，这正是我从帕尔的讲话中得出的结论，虽然丹尼尔·德马尔吉诺也提到了相同的观点。这次讲话听起来很像以前你所说的，但让我印象深刻的是他谈到了经济的评论，如果经济继续保持强劲，并且增长趋势似乎超过预期，同时消费支出也很强劲，那么可能需要再次加息。所以我认为美联储还没有完全决定加息，而且你也可以从今天市场的定价中看到这一点。

So if you look at what the fed is looking at, the fed thinks GDP growth is 1.8 percent as trend growth in the first quarter we grew a two percent. Second quarter two point four percent and the third quarter the land of fennel GDP nalcast which is going to be revised is showing it bonkers five percent right so it looks like growth is accelerating. So if that's the case the fed has the high growth like charpe all mentioned today inflation might come back. I think bonkers might be the right word for that. So pal pal is also pretty firm on this two percent uh. inflation target pushing back against these rumblings you know a lot of folks are saying three percent some saying even higher if they're going to be higher for longer uh. it means that does it does it is in a move point anyway. Well I think pal did the right thing by firmly pushing back against inflation target but what you have to keep in mind is that the fed is independent within the federal government but not so all these influential voices that we're seeing of people like Jason vermin was a very respected economist and also others they they are trying to push dialogue towards socializing a higher inflation target so that might eventually feed into into into uh. into the fed not immediately and maybe not with this that chair uh. but maybe in in the coming years so if you're a bond investor that's something that you might want to keep in mind before you buy something like a ten year or thirty-year treasury you know that's a great great great point.

如果你看一下联邦储备委员会正在关注的内容，联邦认为第一季度的GDP增长是1.8％，作为趋势增长，而我们实际增长了2％。第二季度增长了2.4％，第三季度，国土统计局的GDP初步估计为疯狂的5％，尽管这个数字可能会被修正，但看起来经济增长正在加速。因此，如果情况是这样的，联邦储备委员会对高增长如前所述的通胀提出了警示。我认为“bonkers”（疯狂）可能是一个恰当的形容词。Powell也对2％的通胀目标非常坚定，反对一些人声称通胀率可能会达到3％或更高。如果通胀长期保持较高水平，那么其意义可能会变得无关紧要。储备委员会对抗通胀目标的坚决态度是正确的，但需要记住的是，联邦储备委员会在联邦政府内是独立的，但其他有影响力的声音，如尊敬的经济学家杰森·弗米恩等人，正试图推动对更高通胀目标进行社会化的对话，这可能会在未来几年内影响到储备委员会决策，尽管可能不会在这位主席的任期内。所以，如果你是债券投资者，在购买10年或30年国债之前，这是你需要记住的一点。这是一个非常好的观点。

I look at the um. the political makeup the of the folks at the fed and i you know because i'm depending on who wins the white house next and who the next fed for a chair to be uh. there gonna be some things that happen that we never thought could happen before you just kinda alluded to that so uh. a lot of smart people i know uh. for the last couple weeks of come on this show and said i'm loading up on bonds they actually tell me it's a foolproof play is it so you're exactly right from my way that the data of the asset management community is definitely very bullish on bonds and if you think the future looks like the past it's a good bet right so we have a recession that cuts rates bonds go up in price you make out like a bandit but i actually and not looking at it that way i think that the future it will not look like the past and so i think these people will be wrong footed i think the bond market bull market is over and we have a decade of rising rates there's two ways i look at this one is just looking at the supply of bonds if you look at what the treasure is forecasting we're going to have one point five to two trillion dollars in issuance every year basically forever now if you like bonds that's great because you're going to have more than you ever want but i also be in fact how bond prices are going to have to come down and secondly like we were discussing the politics is changing in our culture i think if we have to choose between higher inflation or higher unemployment people are going to be willing to tolerate higher inflation in order to keep their job i think that's where the culture is going and so if you are uh if you are you know by your bond i'll be worried because maybe maybe the inflation target does change because of politics and the culture change.

我看一下呃，在美联储的人们的政治构成。我知道，因为我取决于下一届能赢得白宫的人以及下一任美联储主席，会发生一些我们以前从未想过的事情，你刚刚暗示了这一点。所以，我认识的很多聪明人，在过去几周都上过这个节目，他们告诉我说他们要大量买进债券。他们告诉我这是一个百分之百安全的投资。所以，从我这个角度看，我觉得资产管理界的数据绝对看多债券。如果你认为未来会像过去一样，这是一个很好的赌注。所以，我们有了一次降息的衰退，债券价格上涨，你就像一个大财团一样发财。但是，我觉得未来不会像过去那样，我觉得这些人会走错方向，我认为债券市场的牛市已经结束了，我们将面临十年的升息。我有两种看法，一种是只看发行的债券量，如果你看一下国库的预测，每年我们将有一万五千亿到两万亿的发行量，基本上是永远的。现在如果你喜欢债券，那很好，因为你会拥有超过你需要的数量，但是债券价格也不得不下跌。其次，像我们之前讨论过的，政治正在改变我们的文化，我认为如果我们必须在通胀率和失业率之间做出选择，人们会愿意容忍更高的通胀率来保住自己的工作，我认为文化正在朝着这个方向发展。所以，如果你持有债券，我会担心，也许因为政治和文化的变化，通胀率目标会改变。

You're making some amazing points here joe i've got 30 seconds in just uh. Having said all of that no one's talking recession anymore have we taken our eye off the ball there. So i actually think so i was not thinking we'd have a recession this year but i'm beginning to think we'll have one next year the reason is because these longer deals they're finally going up so when the Fed is hiking rates they're hiking the overnight rate but really that doesn't matter nobody borrows at the overnight tenure where people borrow at it say let's say the tenure yield right and that was ranged out for most of this year but now it's breaking up breaking out to the upside so i think that's going to tighten financial conditions enough such that we can have a recession next year maybe in the second half next year but but not this year and right now things look pretty strong to me. All right you know that feeds into my last segment uh. Live it live life while you can bread and circuits this for everyone while while we while it lasts great stuff Joe appreciate it.

你在这里提出了一些很棒的观点，Joe。我只有30秒的时间，所以就说吧。话虽如此，现在已经没有人再讨论经济衰退了，我们是不是把目光从重点上移开了？所以我认为，我一开始并不认为今年会发生经济衰退，但我开始觉得明年会发生。原因是这些较长的交易正在升值，所以当美联储加息时，他们加息的是隔夜利率，但实际上这并不重要，没有人会在隔夜期限借款，人们会在例如十年期债券收益率上借款。在今年大部分时间里，这个利率一直在范围内，但现在它突破上限，我认为这将足以导致金融条件收紧，可能导致明年出现经济衰退，也许是明年下半年，但不会在今年，目前的情况对我来说看起来相当强劲。好，你知道，这和我最后一部分的主题相呼应。尽情享受生活，Joe，感谢你的宝贵建议。