TSLA Recovers, Excellent China Sales, NHTSA’s Special Request

Hey everybody Rob Merr here and today we've got some really nice numbers for Tesla in China, updates on hardware 4 project Highland, a letter from NHTSA 2 Tesla, and a couple other items as well. Great day for Tesla stock today, finishing up 7.7% closing at $257.18 while the NASDAQ was up 1 3.4% on the day today.

大家好，我是Rob Merr。今天我们有来自中国的一些关于特斯拉的好消息，以及对硬件4项目高原的更新，还有一封NHTSA给特斯拉的信和其他一些内容。今天是特斯拉股票的好日子，收盘上涨了7.7%，收于257.18美元，而纳斯达克当天上涨了1 3.4%。

Overall the market is seemingly reacting to some job news out in pre-market. In short, job openings came in lower than expected and declined more quickly than expected. And although that might seem like bad economic data, of course there's always the counterbalance that affects the market right now, of poor economic data making it less likely for further interest rate increases to occur. We are about 3 weeks out from the next FOMC meeting where that next decision will be made. The CME Group FedWatch tool today showing an increase in expectations for a rate pause at this meeting. That was the favored outcome before but that's now increased from a 78% expectation up to about 86% expectation. That's about where it sat a week ago so nothing too crazy but I guess enough for the markets today on top of a similar report coming out for consumer confidence.

总体来说，市场似乎正在对盘前发布的一些就业消息做出反应。简而言之，职位空缺比预期低，并且下降速度比预期更快。虽然这可能看起来像是糟糕的经济数据，但当然总有一种对冲因素在影响着目前的市场，那就是糟糕的经济数据使得进一步的利率上调变得不太可能。离下一次FOMC会议还有大约3周的时间，在那次决定会有一个决定。今天CME集团的FedWatch工具显示出人们对此次会议暂停加息的期望增加了。这之前就是最受青睐的结果，但现在从78%的期望增加到了约86%的期望。这与一周前的情况差不多，所以也没什么太疯狂的事情，但我猜这对于今天的市场来说足够了，加上类似的消费者信心报告也发布了。

So as we mentioned PCE later this week on Thursday that will be something to keep an eye on as well. If that comes in lower than expected that should continue to drive the expectation for no increase at the next meeting, even higher the markets could like that as well.

正如我们在本周四稍后提到的个人消费支出指数（PCE），这也是需要密切关注的事项。如果该指数低于预期，这将进一步推动市场对下次会议不加息的预期，这对于市场也可能非常受欢迎。

In addition to the overall markets rising today off of those macro reports we did have a positive report for Tesla in China. This is insured vehicle numbers for the week. This jumped this week to 17,000. As we can see from the chart that's basically tied for the third best week so far this year.

除了宏观报告带动整体市场上涨之外，我们在中国拥有一份针对特斯拉的正面报告。这是关于本周被保险的特斯拉车辆数量的报告。这一数字本周达到了17,000辆。从图表上可以看出，这基本上与今年迄今为止表现最好的第三周相当。

From a quarter to date perspective this now moves Tesla to 89,200 vehicles insured in the first 8 weeks of the quarter and this number again improves the quarter to date trend. This is up 11% over the 80,200 vehicles through the first 8 weeks of Q2. For Q1 through this point it was 57,800 for Q4 72,900. Now remember Q2 did go on to set the record of about 160,000 for the quarter. There are now 5 weeks left in Q3 so for Tesla to set another record it's going to need to average about 14,000 here per week over the next 5 weeks. So still plenty of work to be done that's because Q2 closed so strongly averaging about 16,000 over those last 5 weeks of the quarter. But as the weeks go by it's looking more and more attainable. So I'm really happy with this 17,000 number it's ahead of my expectations.

从迄今为止的季度角度来看，特斯拉在本季度的前8周保险车辆已经增加到89,200辆，这一数字再次改善了迄今为止的趋势。相比于Q2的前8周80,200辆车辆，这个数字增长了11%。而对于Q1，这个数字为57,800辆，对于Q4，这个数字为72,900辆。现在记住Q2确实在整个季度中创下了大约160,000辆的记录。现在Q3还剩下5周，所以为了再创记录，特斯拉在接下来的5周每周需要平均销售大约14,000辆。所以还有很多工作要做，因为Q2在季度的最后5周平均销售了大约16,000辆。但随着时间的推移，看起来越来越有可能实现。所以我对这个17,000的数字感到非常满意，它超出了我的预期。

Production and Model 3 and whatever's going on with Project Highland. This could put some pressure on these numbers as we move forward. But we should get a better idea of how that's looking if we don't hear something before this with the production numbers that come out in hopefully a little bit less than 2 weeks from now.

生产和Model 3以及与Project Highland有关的任何进展情况。这可能会对这些数字造成一些压力，随着时间的推移，我们应该会对情况有更清楚的了解，如果在接下来的不到两周内没有听到有关生产数字的消息的话。

Speaking of Project Highland from Esther Kockmans on X, it looks like we've got two different sightings of based on the front rear coverings like we have seen before. Vehicles that are presumably Project Highland Model 3's in Europe. One of these sightings was in Germany, the other in France and it's one of the first times we've seen sightings like this in Europe. There was a report a couple weeks ago about a similar sighting in Spain. Hopefully a sign that things are getting closer but obviously we'll just wait and see what comes to be here over the next few weeks.

提到Esther Kockmans在X上关于“高地计划”的发言，看起来我们已经有了两次不同的目击，基于前后覆盖物，就像我们之前所见到的一样。这些车辆在欧洲很可能是“高地计划3型号”的。其中一个目击事件发生在德国，另一个在法国，这是我们在欧洲首次见到这样的目击。几周前有一份关于在西班牙类似目击的报告。希望这是事情正在逼近的一个迹象，但显然我们只能等待并看看接下来几周会发生什么。

Alright next up today we've got an update on Hardware 4. Of course yesterday we talked about Elon's comments on X that Hardware 4 would lag behind Hardware 3 by about 6 months. But right after that comment, it looks like FSD beta is now rolling out to Hardware 4 vehicles. A number of different reports on this. I'm not sure if it's all Hardware 4 vehicles or if this is going in waves. But definitely interesting to see after Elon's comments I think a lot of surprise for a lot of people. Although a very welcome surprise. If we look back at Elon's comment now, it seems more likely that he would have been talking about the performance of FSD beta rather than the release of FSD beta. And or just talking more specifically about FSD beta version 12. We haven't seen that released to Hardware 3 yet so he may be talking about version 12 that making its way to Hardware 4. Maybe that takes a little bit longer than when we see it introduced on Hardware 3. Glad to see this starting to roll out though to Hardware 4 especially with a likely higher concentration of FSD take rate this quarter because of the FSD transfer option. More of those Hardware 4 vehicles are going to be FSD beta cars because of that. Therefore more customers affected by not having it so happy to see it.

好的，接下来我们今天有关于硬件4的更新。当然，昨天我们谈论了埃隆关于X的评论，他说Hardware 4将比Hardware 3滞后大约6个月。但是在那个评论之后，看起来FSD beta现在正在向Hardware 4车辆推出。有很多不同的报告。我不确定是否所有的Hardware 4车辆都能使用，或者这是分批进行的。但是肯定是很有趣的，看到埃隆的评论之后，我认为许多人都感到非常惊讶。虽然这是一个非常受欢迎的惊喜。现在回顾埃隆的评论，他说得更可能是指FSD beta的性能，而不是发布FSD beta。或者更具体地说，他在谈论FSD beta的第12个版本。我们还没有看到它发布到Hardware 3上，所以他可能在谈论第12个版本会在Hardware 4上推出，可能比在Hardware 3上推出需要更长的时间。不过很高兴看到这一功能开始在Hardware 4上推出，特别是考虑到本季度FSD转让选项可能会有更高的接受率。由于这个原因，会有更多的Hardware 4车辆成为FSD beta车辆。因此，更多的客户会受到没有这个功能的影响，所以很高兴看到它的推出。

Alright, some more news on FSD today. There is a new letter from NHTSA to Tesla. This is a special request from NHTSA involving their investigation that's been ongoing in autopilot for a long time. In the letter, they say that recently NHTSA became aware that Tesla has introduced an autopilot configuration that when enabled allows drivers using autopilot to operate their vehicles for extended periods without autopilot prompting the driver to apply to work to the steering wheel. So we had talked back in June about a post from Green the Only on X that there was an Elon mode that was hidden in the software, not inableable but still in the software that would disable the nags for the wheel. So that was mid June. This letter from NHTSA is dated July 26th to Tesla. They allow Tesla to respond by August 25th. We don't know for sure if that's what NHTSA is referring to specifically or maybe just videos of FSD beta out there. Who knows, but the timing does kind of line up and again this is not a feature that any customer can just go in and enable. You'd have to have pretty decent technical knowledge to be able to even know that that exists or be able to do anything with it. So I don't think this is too big of a deal, but nevertheless NHTSA asking Tesla for a lot more information on it. You can see the number of different requests here they have about this. Doesn't mention Elon mode specifically, but asks about what vehicles may have any feature that reduces or eliminates nags. Now I'm not sure that that inherently would even be an issue in and of itself. I mean we've all seen I think advertisements for I think I don't know super cruises or blue cruises whichever one they've advertised ends free for their ADAS systems which of course then use I monitoring. FSD beta is now using I monitoring. So I'm sure NHTSA would prefer more monitoring, but there are others that have done no hand nagging requirements. So again, Tesla had until the 25th of August to reply. We don't have any information on whether or not Tesla has replied, but either way I don't think this specifically is likely to be very material, but we'll keep an eye out for any other updates on it.

今天关于FSD的更多消息。NHTSA给特斯拉写了一封新信。这是NHTSA对他们长期进行的关于自动驾驶的调查的特殊要求。信中提到，最近NHTSA获悉特斯拉引入了一种自动驾驶配置，启用后允许使用自动驾驶的驾驶员在长时间内不需要转动方向盘。我们在6月份曾经讨论过Green the Only在X上的一篇帖子中提到，软件中隐藏有一个Elon模式，无法启用，但仍然存在于软件中，可以禁用对方向盘的提醒。那是在6月中旬。这封NHTSA致特斯拉的信件日期是7月26日。他们要求特斯拉在8月25日前做出回应。我们不能确定NHTSA具体指的是什么，也许是有关FSD beta的视频，谁知道呢，但时间上是相符的。再次强调，这不是一个任何客户都可以进入并启用的功能。你必须要有相当不错的技术知识才能知道它的存在并对其进行操作。所以我认为这并不是一个太大的问题，但不管怎样，NHTSA要求特斯拉提供更多关于此事的信息。你可以看到他们对此的各种不同请求。信中没有具体提到Elon模式，但问及哪些车辆可能具有减少或取消提醒的功能。现在我不确定这本身是否会成为问题。我们都见过关于其他ADAS系统（当然还包括使用眼动检测的系统）的广告，如supercruise或blue cruise。FSD beta现在也开始使用眼动检测。所以我相信NHTSA可能更希望有更多的监控，但也有其他厂商不要求手握方向盘的要求。再次强调，特斯拉在8月25日前必须做出回应。我们没有任何关于特斯拉是否已作出回应的信息，但无论如何，我并不认为这个问题本身会对特斯拉产生太大影响，但我们将继续关注相关的更新。

Alright, handful of other quick things here. Elon has commented on X that they will soon be making an app to allow you to see the latest from X on Tesla car screens. Pretty obvious that that would be happening at some point, so we'll see what Tesla's got in mind for that implementation. And then we've got a report from Bloomberg that Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg among others are going to be invited to participate in a panel that is led by Senator Chuck Schumer sometime in September to discuss AI and presumably AI regulation. So I'm glad to see that Elon will have a seat at that table. I think Schumer has interacted a little bit with Elon before on this, so we'll see if we get any more reporting on that as that meeting occurs.

好的，还有几个其他的事情。埃隆已经评论过，他们将很快制作一个应用程序，让您可以在特斯拉车载屏幕上获取X的最新消息。很明显，这种情况迟早会发生，所以我们将看看特斯拉对此实施有什么打算。此外，彭博社报道，埃隆·马斯克和马克·扎克伯格等人将被邀请参加由参议员查克·舒默主持的一个小组讨论会，时间在九月份，讨论人工智能，估计还包括人工智能的监管。所以我很高兴看到埃隆会参与其中。我认为舒默之前在这个问题上已经和埃隆有过一些互动，所以我们会看到会议进行时是否会有更多的报道。

I did also want to briefly touch on a topic that we talked about yesterday and that was the changes in megapack pricing. I had talked about how it might be able to be premature to judge how those price changes might impact Tesla's financial results for megapack and a commenter brought up a really great point that I thought bared repeating today on that topic. And that was that last year Tesla did actually significantly increase prices on megapack. And of course at that time the backlog was already pretty long for megapack judge based on that estimated delivery date in the design studio that likely stretched into 2023 at that time. So I think it's pretty likely that orders that have been being fulfilled were probably made prior to that price increase. Which would be basically exactly what we saw Tesla do with car pricing. They add these lower prices long backlog and then they raise prices to very high levels, but they were likely delivering very few of those higher price cars, which although obviously didn't completely mitigate the effects of the price decreases that we then saw this year, but it did reduce that impact versus what you would strictly see on the design studio. And that was something that Zach had specifically talked about on the earnings calls during those price changes. So good to remember that that's probably something that's also happening right now with megapack and just like with cars, maybe that doesn't cover the entirety of the price change, but maybe it's less significant than it would appear just based off of the design studio.

我也想简要谈谈我们昨天讨论过的话题，即Megapack价格的变化。我曾谈到过，判断这些价格变动对特斯拉的财务结果可能还为时过早，而一位评论者提出了一个非常有建设性的观点，我认为有必要在今天再次重复一下。即去年特斯拉实际上已经大幅提高了Megapack的价格。当然，当时Megapack的订单积压已经相当长，根据设计工作室的交付日期预估，可能一直延伸到2023年。因此，我认为目前正在交付的订单很可能是在价格上调之前就已经下单了。这与特斯拉对汽车定价所采取的做法非常相似。他们会以更低的价格摊薄积压订单，然后将价格提高到非常高的水平，但他们可能只交付了很少的那些较高价格的车辆，尽管显然没有完全抵消今年看到的价格下降的影响，但它确实减少了与在设计工作室上严格看到的影响相比会有的影响。这是扎克在财报电话会议上具体谈到的事情。所以要记住，这可能也是目前在Megapack上发生的情况，就像汽车一样，也许这并不能完全解释价格的变化，但可能比设计工作室上看到的影响要小。

Alright, and then last item for today, just an interesting report from Bloomberg. They have noticed that Sinopec has started to guide that they are expecting gasoline demand to have peaked in China this year. That's two years earlier than their previous forecast. Obviously, that's a huge milestone for electric vehicles and the impact that they are having on that gasoline market.

好的，然后今天最后一个项目，是来自彭博社的一份有趣的报告。他们注意到中国石化已经开始引导，他们预计今年中国汽油需求已经达到了峰值。这比他们之前的预测提前了两年。显然，这对电动汽车及其对汽油市场的影响是一个重大里程碑。

So pretty cool to see that and wanted to pass that along as well. But that'll wrap it up for today.

很酷的是看到这个，也希望把这个消息传递出去。但今天就到这里。

So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, August 30th episode of Tesla viewing.

感谢一如既往地收听。请确保您已订阅并开启了通知功能。您也可以在X平台上找到我，那里有特斯拉播客。我们明天再见，在特斯拉观赛8月30日星期三的一集中见。

Thank you. benPhane for helping me talk out. YounChSab.

谢谢您，benPhane，帮助我畅所欲言。YounChSab。