Markets Weeky August 26, 2023

Hello my friends, today is August 26th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. Now before we begin, I have to point out that this channel now has 10,000 subscribers. I want to thank you sincerely for all that your love and support. Watching this channel grow is really encouraging to me and it makes me want to produce the best content that I can for you. So thank you very much.

大家好，今天是8月26日，我叫Joseph，欢迎来到《本周市场》。在我们开始之前，我必须指出，这个频道现在有了1万个订阅者。我要由衷地感谢你们所有的关爱和支持。看到这个频道的发展对我来说真的很鼓舞人心，让我更想为你们制作出最好的内容。所以非常感谢你们。

Okay, now let's start with our regular programming. So this week, we're going to talk about three things. First, we have to go over what Chirpahl talked about at his Jackson Hole keynote speech and why I think it was a hawkish speech. Secondly, we'll talk about the big BRICS conference this past week and what it might mean for the US dollar. And lastly, I want to give an update on the housing market based upon what I hear from the home builders at their earnings conference calls and why I think housing is going to remain strong even as mortgage rates trend higher.

好的，现在让我们开始正常的节目。所以这周，我们要谈论三个事情。首先，我们要回顾一下奇尔帕尔在他的杰克逊霍尔主题演讲中谈到的内容，以及我为什么认为这是一次鹰派演讲。第二，我们会谈论上周的大型金砖国家峰会，以及它可能对美元意味着什么。最后，我想根据我从房地产开发商的盈利电话会议上听到的内容给大家更新一下房地产市场，以及我为什么认为即使按揭利率上升，房地产市场仍将保持强劲。

Okay, starting with the Fed. So this past week, we had our big annual Jackson Hole conference. What the Jackson Hole conference is is that central bankers around the world fly into Jackson Hole, Wyoming and basically have a big party. They go and they chat with each other and sometimes they also give market moving speeches. Now, if you've ever been to Jackson Hole, then you can see at least from the TV images that it's a really nice place, highly recommended.

好的，从美联储开始说起。所以上个星期，我们举行了一年一度的杰克逊霍尔会议。杰克逊霍尔会议是全球央行家飞往怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔，基本上是举办一场盛大的聚会。他们会互相交流，有时也会发表会影响市场的讲话。如果你去过杰克逊霍尔的话，你可以从电视画面中看到这个地方真的很美，强烈推荐。

So Jay Powell was there and he gave a speech that sounded very much like the things that he was talking about in the past. First off, he looked at inflation and he noted that there was progress being made, but the job is not yet done. He broke inflation down into three segments, goods inflation, housing inflation and non-housing services. And he noted that goods inflation has come down. He's pretty sure that housing inflation is going to come down now that non-housing services, that looks pretty sticky, but it's largely a reflection of wages. And he's looking at wages, wage growth is trending lower, and he's thinking that that is going to trend lower as well. So all in all, he's noting that a lot of progress has been made on the inflation front, but things aren't yet done.

所以杰伊·鲍威尔在那里，并发表了一篇听起来非常像他过去讲过的事情的演讲。首先，他关注通货膨胀，并指出已经取得了一些进展，但工作还没有完成。他将通货膨胀分为三个部分：商品通胀、房屋通胀和非住房服务。他指出商品通胀已经下降。他相当确定房屋通胀也将下降，现在非住房服务看起来相当棘手，但这主要是工资的反映。他正在观察工资，工资增长正在趋低，他认为未来也将趋低。总而言之，他指出在通胀方面已经取得了很多进展，但事情还没有完全完成。

Now, what really caught my eye in this speech was his comments on the real economy. So he noted that if the economy continues to grow above trend, and if basically economic data continues to be strong, then there's a risk and inflation might re-accelerate, so he'll have to keep hiking again. Now, for context, the Fed thinks that the economy trend growth for the economy is about 1.8%. In the first quarter of this year, we grew at 2%. Second quarter, we grew at 2.4%. And this quarter, we're looking like we're even growing even faster. At the same time, last week, we got consumer spending data that's strong, and we see that housing, which we want to talk about later, appears to re-accelerate. So the Fed hydrates a lot, thinking that the economy would slow, and thus drag inflation down. But the economy hasn't really been slowing. In fact, it looks like it's re-accelerating. And so if that continues, then the Fed is probably going to have to hydrates again.

现在，这篇演讲中真正引起我的注意的是他对实体经济的评论。他指出，如果经济继续高于趋势增长，并且基本经济数据继续强劲，那么存在通胀可能重新加速的风险，因此他将不得不再次加息。现在，为了背景信息，美联储认为经济的趋势增长约为1.8%。今年第一季度，我们增长了2%。第二季度，我们增长了2.4%。而这个季度，看起来我们甚至增长得更快。与此同时，上周我们获得了强劲的消费支出数据，我们看到住房市场，我们稍后会谈一下，似乎重新加速。因此，美联储计划大量加息，认为经济会放缓，从而拉低通胀。但实际上，经济并没有放缓。事实上，看起来它正在重新加速。因此，如果这种情况继续下去，美联储可能会再次加息。

So let's rewind a bit and recall what happened at their June Fed meeting. At the June Fed meeting, Fed officials, based upon their projections of the economy at that time, guided towards two-way hikes this year. Now, data has been coming in stronger than expected, so from my perspective, it still makes sense to hike one more time this year. And that's what the market priced into after Chair Powell's speech. The market priced in a slightly higher probability of rate hikes later in the year. So maybe in December, we'll see. But I think that's the right interpretation.

让我们稍微回顾一下6月份的美联储会议上发生了什么。在6月份的美联储会议上，基于当时对经济的预测，美联储官员指出今年还会进行两次加息。现在，经济数据表现比预期更强劲，所以从我的观点来看，今年再加息一次仍然是有道理的。这也是在鲍威尔主席演讲后市场定价的结果。市场在稍微提高今年晚些时候加息概率的基础上进行了定价。所以也许在12月份我们会看到。但我认为这是正确的解释。

Now, the other thing that struck me in this speech was Chair Powell categorically affirmed that the Fed has a 2% inflation target. Now, this is likely in response to a lot of discussion this past week about the potential of the Fed changing their inflation target to maybe 3%.

现在，在这篇演讲中，另一件让我印象深刻的事情是鲍威尔主席明确表示美联储将保持2%的通胀目标。这可能是作为对过去一周有关美联储可能将其通胀目标上调至3%的讨论做出的回应。

Now, Jason Furman, who was a very influential and smart economist, penned an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, noting that, hey, maybe 3% inflation is not so bad. And from my perspective, no, he's totally reasonable. But the Fed obviously can't say that because the Fed would risk from their perspective, destabilizing inflation expectations. The Fed looks at the world through the lens of inflation expectations. And they think that if the Fed clearly commits to a target, then inflation expectations will be stable. And if everyone expects inflation to be stable, then inflation actually will be stable. That's not necessarily how the world works, but that's how the Fed thinks about it. And so the Fed is never going to wave on their inflation target. But what you want to keep in mind is that the Fed is independent within the government, but not of the government. So if the popular culture, if the politicians, if the public is agitating for a higher inflation target, because they'd rather accept higher inflation than losing their job, if that's the popular choice, then the Fed is going to accept that, because the Fed obviously serves the public. So I don't think that this is going to happen immediately. But in the future, I'm guessing that culturally speaking, I think the American public would rather have higher inflation than to lose their jobs. And so I think that's a real possibility in the coming years to have a higher inflation target than the 2% we have now.

现在，非常有影响力和聪明的经济学家贾森·弗曼在《华尔街日报》上发表了一篇评论文章，指出可能3%的通货膨胀并不那么糟糕。就我个人而言，我完全同意他的观点。但是美联储显然不能这么说，因为从他们的角度来看，这可能会破坏通货膨胀预期的稳定。美联储通过通货膨胀预期来看待世界。他们认为，如果美联储明确承诺一个目标，那么通货膨胀预期就会保持稳定。如果每个人都预期通货膨胀稳定，那么实际上通货膨胀也会稳定。这并不一定是世界运作的方式，但这是美联储的思考方式。所以美联储永远不会放弃他们的通货膨胀目标。但你要记住的是，美联储在政府内部是独立的，但并不独立于政府。因此，如果大众文化、政治家和公众呼吁提高通货膨胀目标，因为他们宁愿接受较高的通货膨胀也不愿失业，如果这是大众的选择，那么美联储将接受这一点，因为美联储显然是为公众服务的。所以我不认为这会立即发生。但是在未来，我猜测在文化层面上，我认为美国公众宁愿有较高的通货膨胀也不愿失业是一种真实的可能性。因此，未来几年内我们的通货膨胀目标可能会高于目前的2%。

Okay, now let's talk about the next topic, BRICS. So this past week, the BRICS would BRICS stands Brazil, India, Russia, China, and South Africa, which is a group of developing countries who have historically had large or high growth rates. They had their big conference. And the big news was that they are seeking to enlarge BRICS. They're inviting other countries like Saudi Arabia and Argentina to join. And it looks like those countries will join. So what this seems to be is a geopolitical play where countries who are not as happy with the US-led Western order want to have their own counterbalanced to the Western world order.

好的，现在让我们来谈谈下一个话题，金砖国家。上周金砖国家（由巴西、印度、俄罗斯、中国和南非组成的发展中国家集团）举行了一次重要的会议。重大消息是他们正在寻求扩大金砖国家的范围。他们邀请沙特阿拉伯和阿根廷等其他国家加入，而这些国家似乎也将加入。所以这似乎是一个地缘政治的行动，不那么满意由美国主导的西方秩序的国家想要拥有自己的对抗西方世界秩序的力量。

Now, this has a whole bunch of implications for trade and politics, but let's talk about one aspect of it. And that is the role of the dollar. Now, one of the things that these guys talk about is having at their own BRICS currency, or at the very least, being able to make payments to each other, not with a dollar, but with their own currencies. So to be perfectly clear, the dollar right now is in a very strong position by any statistics that you can see that the world, international trade, for example, is largely conducted in dollars. If you look at other measures, let's say ethics trading or the issuance of international data, the dollar is very dominant. So the dollar is in no threat of being displaced at the moment. But let's look at this from a longer term perspective. No currency is a dominant currency forever.

现在，这对贸易和政治有很多影响，但让我们谈谈其中一个方面，那就是美元的角色。现在，这些人讨论的其中一件事是拥有自己的金砖国家货币，或者至少可以用自己的货币相互支付，而不是用美元。所以请明确，就目前而言，无论从任何统计数据来看，美元都处于非常强势的地位，世界的国际贸易大部分以美元进行。如果你看其他指标，比如伦敦金融市场的道德交易或者国际数据的发布，美元也是非常占主导地位的。所以眼下美元并没有被取代的威胁。但让我们从长期的角度来看这个问题。没有任何一种货币会永远占主导地位。

So how might this little BRICS experiment evolve? So first off, I would be, I would just completely dismiss the idea of having a BRICS currency. Now, we have something, an experiment like that. It's the Euro, right? You have all these different countries and they use the same currency. And that led to some problems before you had Germany, for example, which had a strong economy. It was arguing for tighter monetary policy in New York countries like Italy and Spain and Portugal who had weaker economies arguing for a looser monetary policy. So there's a lot of friction involved. Now, a BRICS currency would be a complete disaster. You'd have these countries are not just share a different cultural heritage, but they're also very far apart. I mean, can you imagine China being happy with Argentina having an influence on their monetary policy? I don't think so. But what I do think this could evolve into is greater use of their own currencies when it comes to trade.

这个小型金砖国家实验未来可能会如何发展呢？首先，我会完全否认拥有一个金砖国家的货币的想法。现在，我们有了一个像这样的实验。这就是欧元，对吧？你有所有这些不同的国家，它们使用同一种货币。这导致了一些问题，比如德国拥有强劲的经济，它提出了应对经济较弱的意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙等国家更为紧缩的货币政策。所以这其中存在很多摩擦。而金砖国家的货币将是一场彻底的灾难。这些国家不仅拥有不同的文化传统，而且彼此之间相距遥远。你能想象中国对阿根廷在其货币政策上产生影响感到满意吗？我不这么认为。但我认为这个实验可能会发展成在贸易方面更多地使用他们自己的货币。

So right now, the dollar is about 50% of international trade is invoicing the dollars. So for example, if you are a company in India wanting to buy something in Argentina, chances are that you're going to be paying in dollars. And part of this is simply because there's this very strong international dollar network. Now, if you are a bank in India, you probably don't have a Argentine peso business. And if you are a bank in Argentina, you probably don't have an Indian-Rupia business. But what you will have though is a dollar business. So there's this huge dollar network where payments basically are in dollars and go through this huge banking network that is at the end of the day centered around the Fed.

现在，大约有50%的国际贸易以美元计价。所以举个例子，如果你是一家位于印度的公司想要购买阿根廷的产品，很有可能你会选择用美元支付。而其中一个原因就是存在一个非常强大的国际美元网络。现在，如果你是一家印度的银行，很可能没有阿根廷比索的业务。而如果你是一家阿根廷的银行，很可能没有印度卢比的业务。但是你们都会有美元业务。因此，存在着这个庞大的美元网络，其中的支付基本上都是用美元进行，并通过这个以美联储为中心的巨大银行网络进行。

Now, this works, but in the past few years, it's also been a source of tension because the US has been more and more willing to use their control over this dollar payments network to enforce their political will. For example, a big thing the US does is something called money laundering and all sorts of sanctions. So for example, when the US doesn't like Iran, for example. And when it found out that one of the big French banks was actually processing payments on behalf of Iran, they got really mad and find this French bank a tremendous amount of money.

现在，这样做是可行的，但在过去几年里，这也成为了一种紧张的源头，因为美国越来越愿意利用他们对美元支付网络的控制来强制实施他们的政治意愿。例如，美国经常从事一种叫做洗钱的活动，还有各种制裁措施。因此，例如，当美国不喜欢伊朗时。当他们发现一家法国大银行实际上代表伊朗进行支付处理时，他们非常生气并对这家法国银行罚款了一大笔钱。

Now, if you're a bank in France, you should be like, hey, man, this is my business. Why are you stepping in? But because you use a dollar, you use a dollar payment network. And so you basically are under the control of the US. And many countries don't like this. They also saw what happened to Russia during the Russia-Ukraine war where Russia basically got cut out of the international payments infrastructure. There's a real risk there that other countries don't like.

现在，如果你是法国的一家银行，你可能会说：“嘿，这是我的事情，你为什么要干涉？”但是因为你使用美元，使用美元支付网络，所以你基本上是受美国控制的。许多国家都不喜欢这种情况。他们也看到了俄罗斯在俄乌战争中被剥离出国际支付基础设施的情况。其他国家对此存在真正的风险和不满。

So, so far, it's been really hard to circumvent this structure simply because the dollar network is so well established. Now, there are new technological developments that make it easier for countries like the BRICS to circumvent this system. For example, the Bank of International Settlements is developing something interesting called the project M-Bridge. And what that is, it's basically a huge ledger technology where foreign central banks are all on the same ledger and make payments on that ledger.

到目前为止，很难绕过这种体系，因为美元网络非常完善。然而，现在有了新的技术发展，使得像金砖国家这样的国家更容易绕过这个系统。例如，国际清算银行正在开发一项有趣的项目，名为M-Bridge。这个项目基本上是一种庞大的账本技术，外国央行都位于同一个账本上进行支付。

So, for example, through project M-Bridge, let's say, the central bank of India and the central bank of China would be on the same, let's say, same ledger. And because you're on the same ledger, they can process payments on behalf of their banks, who in turn can process payments on behalf of their clients. And so, they wouldn't really need the dollar as a common payment infrastructure as a common ledger. They could actually rely on this new technology.

举个例子，通过M-Bridge项目，假设印度央行和中国央行将使用同一个账本。因为他们在同一个账本上，他们可以代表各自的银行进行支付处理，而这些银行又可以代表他们的客户进行支付处理。因此，他们实际上并不需要美元作为常见支付基础设施或常见账本。他们可以依靠这种新技术进行支付处理。

It's always hard to build new payment networks. For example, let's say that you are trying to come up with a new credit card company. Well, how are you going to compete with MasterCard or Visa? They're already accepted everywhere. If you go and you start with your new payments networks, no one's going to want to use it because it's not accepted everywhere. But if you have the official sector involved, though, I think that's a whole another story. You can easily see a world where bricks sign on to some kind of technology like this, and then mandate all their companies and banks to also use the same technology. And so, in that sense, you could actually have this network effect be recreated right pretty quickly. And it wouldn't involve a new currency, of course. It'd just be Indian companies paying with Rupee to the Argentine sellers. But because of this new payments technology, the Indian company pays their rupees, then their bank in India goes to the Indian Central Bank, who then goes to this common ledger, passes out payments with the Central Bank of Argentina. And Central Bank of Argentina goes to their local bank, who then goes to the Argentine seller's account. So, you could have this new infrastructure that could potentially accelerate a move away from the dollar. No, totally, totally, to be clear, this is in its early stages, and these things happen slowly. But one thing to keep in mind is that because of these technological developments, and because of the strong political will, it could happen faster than you expect. So, let's keep an eye out on this development.

建立新的支付网络始终是困难的。例如，假设你试图创建一家新的信用卡公司。那么，你要如何与MasterCard或Visa竞争呢？它们已经被各处接受。如果你开始创建自己的支付网络，没有人会想使用它，因为它还没有被广泛接受。但是，如果涉及到官方部门，那就是另一回事了。你可以很容易地看到一个世界，砖石公司都加入一种类似的技术，然后要求所有的公司和银行也使用同样的技术。因此，在这种情况下，你实际上可以迅速重建这种网络效应。当然，这并不涉及新的货币。只是印度公司用卢比支付给阿根廷卖家。但是由于这种新的支付技术，印度公司支付他们的卢比，然后他们在印度的银行去找印度央行，央行再去这个共同的账本，通过阿根廷央行进行支付。阿根廷央行再去他们的本地银行，然后去阿根廷卖家的账户。因此，你可以有这种新的基础设施，有可能加速远离美元的转移。不，完全没有错，这个还处于早期阶段，这些事情进展很慢。但是要记住一件事，由于这些技术的发展和强大的政治意愿，它可能比你预期的要快。所以，让我们密切关注这一发展。

Now, the last thing that I want to talk about is housing. Now, a year ago, we saw mortgage rates rise, everyone was expecting the housing market to crash, and it didn't happen. Now, to be totally clear, the housing market is strong. Now, let's look at some data. Let's look at, for example, construction jobs. Now, you would expect, let's say, if you were a traditional cycles guy to say, oh, well, mortgage rates up, construction down, layoffs, recession.

现在，我想讨论的最后一件事是房屋问题。一年前，我们看到房贷利率上升，每个人都预计房地产市场会崩溃，但事实并非如此。现在，要明确一点，房地产市场很强劲。现在，我们来看一些数据。例如，我们来看看建筑工作。假如你是一个传统周期理论人士，你会预计说，噢，房贷利率上升，建筑工作会下降，裁员，衰退。

But look here, there's really no layoffs in the construction sector, and it actually appears to continue to grow. Home prices, if you look at the case, still a national price index, continue to rise. So, housing is doing fine, and of course, you can look at the stocks and hold the major publicly traded builders, and you also see that they are doing wells as well.

但是你看，建筑行业中实际上没有裁员，而且似乎还在继续增长。如果你看看房价，仍然是按国家价格指数计算的，它们持续上涨。所以，房地产行业情况良好，当然，你可以看看那些主要的公开交易的建筑公司的股票，你也会发现它们表现良好。

So, why is housing so strong, and is it going to remain strong? So, I'm going to, I think, go a little bit more in depth in this, to try to help you guys understand what's happening. Now, a very common story, and one that is totally legitimate, is that because there's a whole bunch of people locked into low mortgage rates, they don't want to sell, there's not a lot of inventory. And so, because there's not a lot of inventory, there's not a lot of supply, and so, house prices remain supported. That's definitely true.

那么，为什么房地产市场如此强劲，它会继续保持强劲吗？所以，我打算稍微深入一点，试图帮助你们理解正在发生的事情。一种非常常见的说法，也是完全合理的，就是因为有很多人被困在低利率抵押贷款中，他们不想卖房，供应量很少。因此，由于供应量不多，房价得到了支撑。这是绝对正确的。

But there's a couple other things to note as well. So, when you're thinking about housing, I think it's important to realize that housing has, so just looking at new construction, has a few segments. You have the first time home buyers, let's say someone who was just getting their first home, got married, has a family, and they want a house, okay?

此外还有几件事情需要注意。因此，当你考虑住房问题时，我认为重要的是要意识到住房市场在新建领域有几个不同的细分部分。第一类是首次置业者，比如刚刚购置首套房的人，他们可能刚刚结婚，有了家庭，想要一所属于自己的房子，明白吗？

You have the move-up buyer, so someone, maybe it's in the middle of their career, maybe want some more space, maybe it is trying to get into their luxury segment or something like that. And you have the active adult segment, so you have the boomers who have these, you know, their children moved out, they're going to downsize, maybe they're going to buy a house somewhere else, closer to where their adult children are.

你有那些想升级的买家，可能是事业中期的人，可能是想要更多空间的人，也可能是想要进入豪华市场的人等等。还有那些活跃的成年人群体，即我们所说的婴儿潮一代，他们的孩子已经独立出去了，他们想要减小房子规模，可能会在其他地方购买一套房子，离他们的成年子女更近一些。

Now, among these three segments, now they all have different dynamics. Boomers, obviously, they rode the home price appreciation wave up during the past few decades, they have tremendous amounts of equity into their home. When they buy things, they don't need a mortgage, they would just sell their house and they'll buy another one. So, when you're looking at high mortgage rates, they don't really care about that. So, that's one reason why you can still have strong home sales.

现在，在这三个部分中，它们都有不同的动力。显然，婴儿潮一代在过去几十年中享受到了房价上涨的好处，他们在房子上积累了巨额资产。当他们购买东西时，他们不需要贷款，他们只需要卖掉自己的房子，然后买另一栋房子。所以，当你看到高利率贷款时，他们其实并不太在意。这也是为什么房屋销售仍然保持强劲的一个原因。

Let's look at the move-up home buyers. The move-up home buyers, well, you know, they have some wealth, now they're going to, they're not going to be able to afford as much as they could when mortgage rates were high, but you know, they do have some wealth built up over time. And, you know, if they're middle age, they also have boomer parents that are in the process of retirement. So, they're going to have some inheritance as well. So, these guys are somewhat affected by mortgage rates, but also, keep in mind that the soft market has gone up a lot, they're in the middle of their career, higher income earning potential. So, that helps a bit as well.

让我们来看一下那些想要升级房屋的购房者。这些购房者，你知道，他们有一些财富，但现在他们购买能力较之前的高利率时期要低。不过，他们多年来积累了一些财富。而且，如果他们是中年人，他们还有正在退休的婴儿潮一代父母。所以，他们也会有一些遗产。因此，这些人受到贷款利率的影响，但也要记住，房地产市场已经大幅上涨，他们正处于事业的中期，有更高的收入潜力。所以，这也有所帮助。

Now, the first time home buyer segment is obviously the segment that's going to be impacted the most by higher mortgage rates. So, what I would say to this is that a lot of these first time home buyers have been buffered by from these high mortgage rates because the home builders have been offering rate buy downs. So, when you go and buy in a house, usually the home builder will offer you all sorts of incentives. They could give you closing costs or maybe give you some free upgrades. So, they have these, you know, they have this incentive money that they can spend. Right now, they're spending it on buying down mortgage rates. So, for example, let's see mortgage rates of 7%, maybe the builder offers the buyer a 6% mortgage rate and the buyer is able to accept that.

现在，首次购房者群体显然是最受高利率影响的群体。因此，对此我想说的是，许多这些首次购房者之所以没有受到高利率的太大影响，是因为房屋建筑商一直在提供利率减免。因此，当你买房的时候，通常房屋建筑商会给你各种各样的优惠。他们可以支付你的全部房屋交易费用，或者给你一些免费升级。所以他们有这些奖励金可以花费。目前，他们正在用来降低抵押贷款利率。例如，假设抵押贷款利率为7%，建筑商可能会给购房者提供6%的利率，而购房者则可以接受这个利率。

Now, home builders are reporting very wide profit margins higher than they were, not as high as they were at the peak, but still higher than pre-pandemic. And so, they can easily afford to buy, do these rate buy downs and also keep in mind that material costs have come down, number prices, for example, have declined and so that's helping them on their margins. So, this is actually something that looks like it can continue, right? High mortgage rates don't necessarily mean housing collapse because many people are insulated from it and don't care about it.

现在，房建商报告的利润率非常高，比之前高，虽然没有达到巅峰时的高点，但仍然高于疫情前。因此，他们可以轻松承担购买成本，进行利率减免，并且要记住物价已经下降，例如建筑材料价格已经有所下降，这有助于提高他们的利润率。因此，基本上可以认为这种情况可以持续下去，对吧？高利率并不一定意味着房市崩盘，因为有很多人并不受其影响，也不在意这个问题。

Now, the second thing that I would note about housing is something that many people have talked about and I think I'll use the words of toll brothers, CEO, toll brothers, as a major home builder to explain it. Buying a house for people besides Marty Connor or CFO is not a direct financial decision. It's a family decision. It's emotional. It's moving all of your life. It's getting the kids in the better school. It's moving down as an empty nester. It's buying the second home and all of that wins. It trumps the strength financial calculation on a back of a napkin and where do they go? They may start on a resale market. They can't find anything.

现在，关于住房的第二件事我想提到的是许多人已经谈论过的，并且我想借用Toll Brothers的首席执行官的话来解释。对于除了首席财务官Marty Connor之外的人来说，购买房屋不是一项直接的财务决策。这是一项家庭决策。它是情感上的决策。它涉及你整个生活的变动。它是为了让孩子上更好的学校而搬家。它是作为空巢老人而搬家。它是购买第二套房以及所有的收获。这胜过了在餐巾纸背面进行的强大的财务计算，他们会选择什么？他们可能会从二手市场开始寻找，但却找不到合适的房屋。

So, as we see, buying a home is a life that is not really purely a financial decision. Sometimes, you're just at a point in life where you need a home. If let's say prices are high, mortgage rates are high, maybe you don't buy as big a home as you wanted. Maybe you don't buy in the neighborhood that you dreamed of, but you still do it. And so, if you have this huge demographic shift where millennials are finally coming of age, whether you want to buy homes, then that's going to continue to be supportive of home markets.

所以，正如我们所看到的，买房不仅仅是一个纯粹的财务决策。有时候，你只是在生活中需要一个家。如果假设房价高涨，按揭利率也高，可能你就不会买到你想要的那么大的房子。也许你也不能在梦想中的街区购买房子，但你仍然会去购买。因此，如果有一个巨大的人口转变，千禧一代终于步入购房年龄，无论他们是否想要购买房屋，这将继续支持住房市场。

So, I think if you weren't expecting a crash in single-family homes, I don't think that's going to materialize. Okay, so that's all I prepared for this week. If you like what I'm producing, remember to like and subscribe. And if you're interested in learning more about the financial markets, check out my blog, saidgri.com, and free, some free macro courses at centralbanking101.com. Thanks so much and talk to you next week.

所以，我认为如果你并没有预料到独立住宅市场的崩盘，我认为这种情况不会出现。好的，这就是我本周为准备的全部内容。如果你喜欢我的制作，请记得点赞和订阅。如果你对了解金融市场更感兴趣，请查看我的博客saidgri.com，并免费参加一些关于宏观经济的课程，网址是centralbanking101.com。非常感谢，我们下周再聊。