Tesla Quietly Leading Underrated Market + Solar, China Updates

Hey everybody Rob Merritt here and today we've got a couple updates on Tesla Energy and Solar, news on Tesla in China and Canada and a few other items as well.

大家好，这里是Rob Merritt。今天我们有关于特斯拉能源和太阳能的一些更新，还有关于特斯拉在中国和加拿大的新闻，以及一些其他的事项。

Quickly looking at the stock a little bit quieter today but still a nice day, up 8-10% to close at $233.19, although it did fall throughout the day alongside the markets, the NASDAQ finishing up a little bit less than a 10th of a percent on the day.

今天股市稍微冷静了一些，但仍然是一个不错的日子，收盘上涨了8-10%，报233.19美元。尽管在交易日中随着市场的下跌而下降，纳斯达克指数收盘略低于百分之十。

Quick reminder that tomorrow after market close, Nvidia will be reporting their earnings which could affect the markets overall.

友情提醒，明天收盘后，Nvidia将公布其收益报告，可能对整个市场产生影响。

Alright we're going to start off today with a couple of updates on energy storage. The first is an exciting report from Shanghai metals market. They have been tracking worldwide energy storage deployments in the first half of 2023 which they estimate at just over 72 gigawatt hours for that six month period. They then break that total down by company and their estimates put Tesla as the number one seller of energy storage in the world in the first half of this year. They've got Tesla at just over 7 gigawatt hours deployed which tracks what Tesla's quarterly reports which have indicated 7.5 gigawatt hours so far this year so at least a good start for the accuracy of the overall report here. Historically data like this has been difficult to find so it's nice to see some more efforts to track this as this becomes a much bigger industry worldwide. So these figures would suggest that Tesla's got a little bit more than 10% of worldwide energy storage market share which in the context of Tesla's EV market share might be a little bit lower but in context of overall automotive market share energy storage would actually be quite a bit higher. So hopefully Tesla can continue to set the pace here obviously big plans in the works at both Lathrop and then soon in China for Tesla's second mega factory and no surprise here Shanghai metals market points out that of these top 10 global companies six of them are Chinese companies and they say that China was responsible for shipping 47 gigawatt hours of that roughly 72 total so about 65% of the total. That should be pretty eye-opening for the rest of the world and I think that's definitely been a factor in some of the decisions made with the inflation reduction act and battery incentives. It's such an obvious growth industry and so many different facets that getting to scale is very important. Anyway good to see Tesla at the top of the list there and hopefully Shanghai metals market will continue to aggregate and report on this.

好的，我们今天首先要谈一下能源储存的最新进展。首先是来自上海金属市场的令人兴奋的报告。他们追踪了2023年上半年全球能源储存的部署情况，预计在这个六个月的时间内总量超过72千兆瓦时。然后他们按公司对这个总量进行了分析，他们估计特斯拉在今年上半年全球能源储存销售额排名第一。他们认为特斯拉的能源储存部署量超过7千兆瓦时，这与特斯拉季度报告中今年迄今为止的7.5千兆瓦时一致，所以至少对于整体报告的准确性来说是个良好的开端。过去这样的数据很难找到，所以很高兴看到有更多的努力来追踪这个日渐庞大的全球产业。这些数据表明特斯拉在全球能源储存市场份额占比略高于10％，与特斯拉在电动汽车市场份额相比可能略低，但在整体汽车市场份额背景下，能源储存实际上要高得多。希望特斯拉能继续在这方面保持领先地位，显然在Lathrop和中国的第二个超级工厂也有很大的计划，上海金属市场指出了这一点，并指出在全球前十大公司中有六家是中国公司，他们表示中国负责出口了大约72总量的47千兆瓦时，约占总量的65％。对于世界其他地区来说，这应该是一个很引人注目的数据，我认为这肯定是一些决策中考虑的因素，包括通胀减少法案和电池激励措施。这是一个明显的增长产业，在很多不同的方面都很重要。总之，在榜单上看到特斯拉排名第一真是令人高兴，希望上海金属市场会继续整合和报道这些数据。

Next we've got a quick report on Tesla's solar from Electric they are saying that they have learned from sources familiar with the matter that Tesla has been laying off staff at its energy offices across the United States and that included in these layoffs have been several solar roof installation crews in North Carolina and Maryland they say the sources say that more layoffs are expected across the energy division. Electric's report on this I'm not sure if that's also coming from the sources or their opinion is that Tesla is revising their strategy to focus less on installation and focus more on providing supplies for certified installers. So if that is the case it'd be a little bit different than what we typically see where Tesla gets more vertically integrated over time but solar has always been a little bit of an outlier we've seen strategies shift there a number of different times with this being the latest shift. I think it's difficult to interpret exactly what this means for the business obviously with solar it's tough to be too optimistic based on what we have seen so far but you could look at it a couple different ways you could say that Tesla's making their product a little bit better easier for third party installers to do that's obviously a goal for Tesla and if they can achieve that then that's great but you could also look at it and say okay Tesla is dialing back their own team here which could be an indication that maybe the growth aspirations aren't high enough to support those teams which would also be a reasonable interpretation based on what we have seen so far and between those two or multiple other interpretations we obviously don't have enough information to determine which is more likely but I think my expectations personally for the solar business are quite low until we see some evidence of a new direction or some substantial progress obviously it's a bit disappointing because solar roof I think is an exciting product and does have a lot of potential and hopefully over time Tesla will be able to unlock that it just hasn't seemed to quite happen yet.

下面是关于特斯拉太阳能的一个快报，来自Electric，他们称他们从熟悉情况的消息源那里得知，特斯拉一直在裁员其在美国各地的能源办公室，并且其中包括北卡罗来纳州和马里兰州的几支太阳能屋顶安装队伍。消息源称，预计能源部门将会有更多的裁员。Electric的报道称我不确定这是否也是从消息源那里得知的，或者是他们的观点，就是特斯拉正在调整他们的策略，将更少地专注于安装工作，更多地提供给认证安装商。所以，如果真是这样，那将有点不同于我们通常看到的特斯拉在不断垂直整合的过程中。但太阳能一直都是一个例外的领域，在这个领域中，我们已经看到了多次策略的转变，而这是最新的转变。我认为很难确切解释这对业务意味着什么，显然根据我们目前所见，对太阳能的展望不会太乐观，但你可以用几种不同的方式来看待这个问题，你可以说特斯拉正在改进产品，使其更容易由第三方安装商安装，这显然是特斯拉的目标，如果他们能够实现这一点，那就太好了。但你也可以看待这个问题，认为特斯拉正在缩减自己的团队，这可能意味着成长的愿景不足以支持这些团队，基于我们目前所见，这也是一个合情合理的解释，在这两种或其他多种解释之间，显然我们没有足够的信息来确定哪种解释更有可能发生。但我个人对太阳能业务的期望非常低，除非我们看到一些新的方向或一些实质性的进展，显然这有点令人失望，因为我认为太阳能屋顶是一个令人兴奋并且具有很大潜力的产品，希望特斯拉能够在未来能够实现这一点，只是目前似乎还没有完全实现。

All right, next we'll move over to China for a few updates and of course start with Project Highland. Thinker Car on X has posted a shot of what appears to be three Model 3s on a road in China. They are covered in a very similar way to the sort of purported Project Highland test vehicles that we've seen in California with the front fascia covered, the rear covered, headlights etc. In this case, there does also seem to be some tape on the side/roof area, but difficult to tell what the purpose of that might be or what it may be helping to cover. Anyway, Thinker Car says this is Tesla's new Model 3 undergoing road testing in China.

好的，接下来我们将转到中国进行一些更新，当然首先是关于高地项目的。Thinker Car发布了一张照片，上面似乎是三辆中国的Model 3汽车在一条路上。它们被覆盖得非常类似于我们在加利福尼亚看到的所谓高地项目测试车辆，前部包括前脸被覆盖，后部被覆盖，大灯等也被覆盖。在这种情况下，侧面/车顶区域似乎也有一些胶带，但很难看出其目的或它可能帮助覆盖什么。不管怎样，Thinker Car表示这是特斯拉在中国进行道路测试的全新Model 3。

Also on Highland, we've got a report from 36 Kr saying that they have learned from a number of people familiar with the matter that Tesla's new Model 3 will be delivered centrally at the end of September. Obviously tough to keep track of all the different reports and rumors that we have on Highland, but all coalescing around the same sort of time period roughly. And we, of course, have to watch out for reports that are just repeating other reports that aren't actually new, but they do have a little bit of unique information in here in this report at least that I haven't seen yet. They are saying that Tesla is going to be restarting production in the first phase of the battery production line, which is not battery cells to be clear. But we had previously talked about Tesla having done some layoffs and reassignments while reportedly pausing production on that production line in early July. At the time, the speculation was that Tesla was going to be doing some upgrading, maybe adding some further automation, and potentially eliminating some roles. So looks like that is now going to be reopened in September, which 36 Kr then ties to Project Highland and the battery needs that Tesla would have for it, which kind of makes sense, I guess. If you got a little bit of downtime for a retool for Project Highland, that could temporarily reduce your need for battery packs and therefore be a good time to implement any upgrades to the battery production line as well. But the article kind of makes it sound like it's because of some sort of unprecedented demand for Project Highland, so Tesla just kind of has to restart this. I don't personally view that as a likely scenario, especially when there hasn't even been an official announcement yet.

另外，在Highland上，我们得到了36氪的一份报告，称他们从多位知情人士那里获悉，特斯拉新款Model 3将在九月底进行集中交付。很显然，要追踪所有有关Highland的不同报告和传言是非常困难的，但它们大致都围绕同一时间段。当然，我们必须注意那些只是重复其他报道而并非真正新闻的报告，但至少这篇报道中有一些我还没有看到的独特信息。他们称特斯拉将在电池生产线的第一阶段重新启动生产，这里要明确一下，并不是电池单元。但我们之前已经谈到特斯拉在七月初暂停生产该生产线期间进行了一些裁员和岗位调整。当时有猜测说特斯拉可能会进行一些升级，可能会增加一些自动化，并且可能会消除一些岗位。所以看起来现在九月这个时间将重新开放生产线，36氪将其与Highland项目以及特斯拉对其的电池需求联系在一起，这在某种程度上是有道理的。如果你在做Highland项目的调整期间有一些停工时间，这就可以暂时降低你对电池包的需求，从而是一个进行电池生产线升级的好时机。但这篇文章似乎将其描述为Highland项目需求的一种前所未有的情况，因此特斯拉只好重新启动生产线。我个人并不认为这是一个可能的情况，尤其是在还没有官方公告的情况下。

All right, last update on China. We do have another week of insured vehicle numbers here for the week of August 14th through the 20th. 13,900 vehicles were insured from Tesla in China, 14,000 last week. So basically flat week over week and another pretty solid week. Remember, Tesla has to average about 14,500 for the rest of the quarter to get a record, but this actually does improve the quarter-to-date trend compared to Q2, the previous record. In the first seven weeks of Q3, this puts Tesla at just over 72,000 compared to Q2 seven weeks through at 67 and a half thousand. So Tesla, through the first seven weeks of this quarter, trending up seven percent quarter-to-date. There was a little bit of downtime in that Q2 number to be fair, and Tesla will have a lot of work left to do the rest of the quarter, especially considering the Model 3 impact. But after a little bit slower of a start to the quarter, it is nice to see things trending in a much nicer direction.

好的，关于中国的最新更新。这里有我们在8月14日至20日这一周的中国保险车辆数量的另一个更新。Tesla在中国保险了13,900辆车，上周为14,000辆。所以基本上是连续两周持平，再次是一个相当不错的周。请记住，为了创造纪录，特斯拉在本季度剩余时间里需要平均每周达到大约14,500辆，但实际上这比第二季度的当期趋势有所提升。在第三季度的前七周里，特斯拉的保险车辆数量超过了72,000辆，而第二季度在同样的时间段里为67,500辆。因此，特斯拉在本季度的前七周中实际上比上一季度同期增长了7%。诚然，第二季度的数据中有一些停机时间，特斯拉在本季度剩余时间还有很多工作要做，尤其是考虑到Model 3的影响。但经过本季度初步有点慢的开局，很高兴看到情况正在向更好的方向发展。

All right, next we've got some new customer satisfaction survey results. This is the ACSI Automobile Study or the American Customer Satisfaction Index Automobile Study. These results were collected from just under 9,000 customers between July 2022 and June 2023. And the headline for Tesla is that their score has improved by four percentage points, up to an 83 customer satisfaction score, which is tied with Lexus for the top spot in what the ACSI study considers to be the luxury segment. So nice to see Tesla at the top. I think we've gotten kind of accustomed to those sorts of results, but also nice to see the four percentage point improvement from the prior score. Now, Tesla wasn't quite the overall leader, Toyota held that slot with an 84 customer satisfaction score. All of these being so close together seemed a little bit unusual to me, and if we look at the overall average, that was 79 percent. So there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of volatility, and however they're measuring this, I would have trouble saying that there's a really material difference between an 84 and an 83, even with the 79. It's not clear how material that would be. But if nothing else, a nice headline for Tesla and I suppose for Toyota as well.

好的，接下来我们有一些新的客户满意度调查结果。这是ACSI汽车研究，或者说是美国客户满意度指数汽车研究。这些结果是从2022年7月到2023年6月期间收集的，总共不到9000名顾客参与了调查。而且，特斯拉的分数提高了四个百分点，达到了83的客户满意度分数，与雷克萨斯并列在ACSI研究认为的豪华汽车领域的首位。看到特斯拉位居榜首真是太好了。我认为我们已经对这类结果习以为常了，但也很高兴看到相比之前的分数提高了四个百分点。然而，特斯拉并不是整体领跑者，丰田以84的客户满意度分数占据了那个位置。对我来说，所有这些数字都非常接近，有点不太寻常，而且如果我们看看总体平均水平，那就是79%。所以似乎没有太大的波动，然而无论他们是如何测量的，我很难说84和83之间有真正的实质性差别，甚至和79之间也不清楚有多大差异。但至少对特斯拉和丰田来说，这是一个好的头条新闻。

All right, next we've got a couple updates on Texas. The first is from the Austin Business Journal via Drive Tesla Canada, which is reporting that Tesla has signed a pretty massive lease for some additional warehousing space about 40 minutes south of Gigatexis in Hays County, Texas. It's for a group of multiple warehouses where Tesla will initially occupy one million square feet with the potential to scale that to 1.4 million over time, according to the mayor. we use this space for storage and potentially some light assembly we've had a number of reports like this this year so always good to see more of those and this one in particular is quite a large space for tesla

好的，接下来，我们对德克萨斯州有一些更新。首先，来自奥斯汀商务杂志通过Drive Tesla Canada的报告称，特斯拉已经签订了一个相当大的租约，用于额外的仓储空间，位于德克萨斯州海斯县的Gigatexis南部约40分钟的地方。根据市长的说法，这是一个由多个仓库组成的地方，特斯拉最初将占用一百万平方英尺，未来有可能扩展到一百四十万平方英尺。我们将利用这个空间进行储存，可能还会进行一些轻装组装。今年我们收到了许多类似的报告，看到更多这样的消息总是好事，特别是这个特斯拉的空间相当大。

the other item on texas which i've seen get some attention today is that texas is going to be introducing on september 1st an additional $200 per year fee for registration for evs this was passed earlier this year so we have actually already talked about this but maybe just getting more attention this week since it is going to be implemented soon obviously a little bit disappointing to see especially in this early stage long term something like this could definitely make sense depending on the magnitude that is of for debate but obviously a little bit of a bummer for an industry that we're trying to support the growth of and this runs in a bit of contradiction to that

今天在德克萨斯州引起一些关注的另一件事是，德克萨斯州将于9月1日开始对电动汽车的注册收取每年额外200美元的费用。这个提议今年早些时候就已经通过了，所以我们已经讨论过了，但或许这周会吸引更多注意力，因为它即将开始实施。显然，看到这样的事情有点令人失望，特别是在这个早期阶段，这样的费用在长期来看可能是有道理的，具体数额的大小仍有待讨论，但对于我们试图支持行业增长的一个行业来说，这确实有点打击和矛盾。

for example texas has an incentive that could offset some costs they say there's a rebate of up to $2,500 for up to 2,000 new hydrogen electric or hybrid vehicles every two years which is just about the smallest incentive you could probably add if you're texas and it seems a little bit purposeless to have a rebate and then increase other fees but obviously could shift around the time balance of the money anyway again we've already talked about this so we'll move on but just in case you did happen to see that wanted to touch on it

例如，得克萨斯州有一项激励措施，可以抵消一些成本。据说每两年，得克萨斯州最多可以给2000辆新的氢燃料电动或混合动力车提供高达2500美元的退款，这可能是你作为得克萨斯州可以增加的最小激励。然而，看起来有点毫无意义，因为除了提供退款之外，还增加了其他费用，但很明显这可以在资金的时间平衡方面进行调整。再次强调，我们已经谈论过这个问题，所以我们会继续进行，但只是以防你碰巧看到了这个，我还是想提一下。

the next report today that we also have talked a little bit about is some news on tesla's conversations with kanda particularly onterio about future investments electric autonomy dot ca has been reporting on this various times throughout this year and they got a little bit more information from a freedom of information request that they had filed which shows that tesla and officials in ontario including the minister of economic development the minister of energy have had conversations over the last three years about possible future investments from tesla which really shouldn't be too surprising obviously tesla's gonna be having conversations like this with a lot of different locales

今天我们要谈的下一个报告是关于特斯拉与加拿大（尤其是安大略省）关于未来投资进行的一些谈话的一些新闻。electricautonomy.ca今年已经多次报道了这一情况，并从他们提出的信息自由请求中获得了一些更多信息。这些信息显示，特斯拉和安大略省的官员（包括经济发展部长和能源部长）在过去三年中就特斯拉可能的未来投资进行了交谈。这并不令人太惊讶，显然特斯拉会与很多不同地方进行此类对话。

i think the most insight that we get from this is that ontario was very receptive and trying to show tesla the benefits and interest that ontario had in working with tesla there's a lot of redacted information and only parts of conversations were shared so beyond that i don't think it gives us a lot of insight on what future investments could be made but nevertheless still kind of interesting

我认为我们从中得到的最有见地的是安大略非常愿意并试图向特斯拉展示合作的好处和兴趣安大略在与特斯拉合作方面有很多被删除的信息，只分享了部分对话因此除此之外，我认为这并没有给我们提供很多关于未来投资可能的见解，但仍然有些有趣

all right last couple of things i know i'll get questions on it there was a new yorker article that's getting a decent amount of attention covering some things like spacex and starlink in ukraine and tesla autopilot and regulators and things like this all stuff that we've talked about all stuff that we've given way more context on than possibly could fit into this article i don't have much interest in going back and just rehashing all of that so if you have any questions on it let me know i guess i can try to answer but honestly i just don't really think it's worth the time for one example here that got some attention it was a business insider article about this new yorker article which of course tries to paint tesla in a bad light saying that they requested nica to redact information about autopilot being on in the case of certain crashes presenting it as some unreasonable thing to do but when we look at how the media portrays tesla and covers tesla obviously that seems very reasonable for tesla to do since the quality and accuracy of the reporting on those types of things is close to zero yeah if i were tesla i want to reduce the noise on that too seems very reasonable to me so i don't know i just think it's kind of a a bunch of stuff like that

好，还有最后几件事我知道会有人问。最近，《纽约客》的一篇文章引起了相当大的关注，涉及到了一些关于SpaceX和星链在乌克兰的内容，还有特斯拉的自动驾驶和监管机构等等，这些都是我们之前谈论过的，也都是我们所提供的更多背景信息。我对于回顾所有这些内容并不太感兴趣，所以如果你有什么问题，尽管问吧，我会尽力回答，但老实说，我觉得这根本不值得花时间。举个例子，有一篇引起了关注的《商业内幕》的文章，它针对这篇《纽约客》的文章试图将特斯拉描绘成一个坏形象，指责他们要求《车载新闻》撤回关于某些事故中自动驾驶开启的信息，并将其描绘成一种不合理的做法，但是当我们看待媒体报道特斯拉的方式时，很明显这种做法对特斯拉来说是非常合理的，因为这些报道的质量和准确性几乎为零。是的，如果我是特斯拉，我也想尽量减少这方面的噪音，对我来说这是非常合理的。所以我不知道，我只是觉得这些都是类似的东西。

and then the last item for today northfold has announced that they have closed financing for an additional 1.2 billion dollars of convertibles which they say will be used to finance for their european and north american expansion plans all right that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you'll also find me on x at tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the wednesday august 23rd episode on tesla daily thank you

然后，北方银行宣布已经获得了额外12亿美元可转换债的融资，他们表示这将用于资助他们的欧洲和北美扩张计划。好的，今天就到这里吧，感谢您的收听，确保您已经订阅并开启了通知，您还可以在Tesla播客节目中找到我，我们明天见，在8月23日星期三的特斯拉每日新闻中，谢谢。