Cybertruck Changes Coming / Wild Megapack Stats / China Fears Growing ⚡️
发布时间 2023-08-19 06:08:14 来源
摘要
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00:00 - Elon's Moves
00:17 - Tesla Gigacasts
1:40 - Cybertruck Changes Coming
4:06 - Wild Megapack Stats
4:53 - Tesla Advertising
5:00 - HW3 vs. HW4
5:14 - Highland Anecdote
5:40 - Solar Roof Lawsuit
6:02 - Hmmmm...
6:37 - FSD Transfer
7:20 - Tesla Charger Feature
8:15 - Lamborghini EV
8:54 - Chinese Concerns Growing
11:30 - IRA Impact and LFP
14:11 - Evergrande BK
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#TeslaCybertruck #TeslaGigacast #CybertruckUpdate
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First up today we have some pretty cool pictures from a community member of ours, shout out to Mark of the rear giga cast in a Model Y and you'll note this green line. I think this is really important because there's that narrative out there that Teslas with giga casts are going to be nearly impossible to repair, but that may not be the case. Essentially there are multiple different points on these giga casts where you can actually have these lines again in multiple locations that are actually cut with a jig that costs around $40,000.
今天首先我们有一位社区成员的一些很酷的图片，向我们的马克喊话，他在Model Y的后部巨型铸件上留下了这条绿线。我认为这非常重要，因为有一种说法是，带有巨型铸件的特斯拉几乎无法修复，但事实可能并非如此。实际上，在这些巨型铸件上有多个不同的点，你可以在多个位置再次看到这些线条，而这些线条实际上是用一种价值约4万美元的夹具切割出来的。
But then certain parts of this giga cast can actually be replaced with one of these black rails as they call it. So in a sense this can actually make these giga casts somewhat modular because you can cut them in certain locations and replace certain pieces or parts, the ones of course that have been damaged. So you can actually cut the giga cast at different locations, then you take these replacement rails, slide it into place, weld it back together and then put the car back together. And here's a picture of one of those replacement rails. And why this is such a big deal because that whole narrative that well if even part of the giga cast gets damaged then you have to throw out the whole thing. It's really not true because they are modular in this sense. So there you have it. I thought this was pretty awesome and worth passing along again. Thank you Mark.
然而，这些巨型铸件的某些部分实际上可以用他们所称的这些黑色导轨之一来替换。从某种意义上说，这使得这些巨型铸件在某种程度上变得模块化，因为你可以在特定的位置切割它们并替换某些已经损坏的部件或零件。所以你实际上可以在不同的位置切割巨型铸件，然后将这些替代导轨放到位，再将它们焊接在一起，最后重新组装车辆。这是其中一种替代导轨的图片。为什么这很重要呢？因为整个说法是，即使巨型铸件的一部分被损坏，你也必须扔掉整个铸件，但实际情况并非如此，因为从这个角度来看它们是模块化的。所以就是这样。我觉得这非常棒，值得再次分享。谢谢你，Mark。
We have some really good work here from autopilot that gives us insight into potentially when we might see some Cybertruck initial deliveries. You can pause if you really want to dive into this. I just want to highlight these two columns, the initial time when Tesla submits the Vin Dakotas to NHTSA and then when they actually have those first deliveries, which oftentimes go to employees first and Tesla does that. So that first batch of deliveries is with employees and if something goes wrong, they can keep it in house and then fix what needs to be adjusted. But the takeaway, the shortest timeframe that we've seen from Tesla so far has been 80 days between when they submit those Vin Dakotas to NHTSA and when those deliveries start. So let me be clear, this guarantees absolutely nothing but there's a world where we don't actually get a delivery event sometime into November. Just thought it was worth mentioning because I think a lot of people are now starting to expect it in the next few weeks and that's also not a guarantee.
我们这里有来自自动驾驶的一些非常好的工作成果，可以让我们对Cybertruck的初步交付时间有一些了解。如果你真的想深入了解，可以先停下来。我只想强调这两列，特斯拉向NHTSA提交VIN的初始时间，以及他们实际进行首批交付的时间，这些首批交付往往首先给员工，特斯拉会这样做。因此，首批交付是给员工的，如果出现问题，他们可以解决，并进行必要的调整。但是需要说明的是，我们到目前为止看到的从特斯拉提交VIN到NHTSA，再到交付开始的最短时间是80天。所以，让我明确一点，这并不能保证任何事情，但有一种可能情况是我们实际上直到11月份都无法得到交付。只是觉得值得一提，因为我觉得很多人现在开始期望在接下来的几周内得到交付，但这也不能保证。
And with this one, let's be careful but definitely think it's worth passing along and it confirms some of the things I've been thinking about. User on Reddit says from 10 to 20 feet away, cyber trucks look good but up close, all of the exterior plastics are ungrained and some on the interior surfaces too. The software and firmware really are not ready to be seen by the public either. I say this as someone directly involved with cyber truck production. There are still some changes for it slated to come before production units as well. So I definitely could be wrong but I'm still guessing that all of these trucks we're seeing across the country are not destined for customers and they're not even destined for employees yet. They're really just pre production variants and it makes sense right? They would still want to be testing these vehicles whether it's crash testing or their own internal testing which they do a lot of because the actual production line at Gigat Texas has only been up and running and producing these vehicles for a very short amount of time. So they would want to have weeks under their belt before starting to give these vehicles to customers.
对于这辆车，我们要小心一点，但肯定认为它值得传递下去，并且证实了我一直在思考的一些事情。Reddit上的用户说，从10到20英尺的距离看，Cybertruck看起来还不错，但近距离看，所有外部塑料都没有纹理，并且一些内部表面也是如此。软件和固件真的还没有准备好向公众展示。我是作为Cybertruck生产中直接参与其中的人说的。在生产单位之前，还有一些变化计划要进行。所以我可能错了，但我仍然猜想我们在全国范围内看到的这些卡车都不是为了顾客而设计的，它们甚至还没有为员工准备好。它们只是预生产版本，这是有道理的，对吧？无论是碰撞测试还是他们自己的内部测试，他们仍然希望测试这些车辆，因为Gigat Texas的实际生产线只是在短时间内开始投产并生产这些车辆。所以他们希望在开始交车给客户之前先经过几个星期的运行。
I mean this was just awesome shared by Sawyer. I don't know where he found it but it was a police department that said while on patrol this morning one of our units spotted a few car haulers loaded with some strange trucks traveling north bound on the I-5. The takeaway though they say I wonder what they are so do they really not know that these are cyber trucks? A good reminder, we're all so clued in but most of the general public is still clueless about what's coming.
我是说，这真是太棒了，Sawyer分享了这个。我不知道他是在哪里找到的，但是有一个警察局说，今天早上我们的一辆巡逻车发现了几辆装满了奇怪卡车的汽车运输车，沿着I-5高速向北行驶。不过他们说不知道这些是什么，这真是令人惊讶，他们难道真的不知道这些是电动卡车吗？这真是一个很好的提醒，我们都对这些事情很了解，但是大部分公众对即将到来的事情却一无所知。
This is just too good. Matt Smith highlighted something that was pretty awesome he highlighted electricity prices from Urquat where around $2,000 per megawatt hour in most locations. Up from the typical $20 to $50. But for as long as prices are in that range, discharging one Tesla megapack is equivalent to about $7,800 or about 0.3% of the total capital cost of a megapack. Now of course we shouldn't extrapolate these electricity rates but if things were to stay the same that's only about 256 discharge cycles to basically pay off the cost of one of these megapacks assuming a $2 million cost. And these megapacks especially using LFP sales should be capable of cycles well exceeding 10,000 plus.
这简直太好了。马特·史密斯突出了一些很棒的东西，他强调了乌拉夸特的电力价格，大多数地区每兆瓦时约为2,000美元。 这比通常的20到50美元高出很多。 但只要价格在这个范围内，释放一台特斯拉超级电池组等于大约7,800美元，即大约占总成本的0.3％。 当然，我们不应该推断这些电力价格会一直保持不变，但如果情况继续下去，这只需要大约256个放电周期就能基本上偿还一台这样的超级电池组的成本，假设成本为200万美元。 使用这些超级电池组（尤其是使用LFP销售）应该能够超过10,000个以上的循环。
Tesla economics posted about Tesla's HEPA filters and Elon responded saying yeah we should probably advertise that more. If you missed it dirty Tesla showed us hardware 3 vs hardware 4 cameras at night and it's a stark difference. Here we have hardware 3 at night and here's the same scene on hardware 4. Hardware 3? Hardware 4. Awesome.
特斯拉经济学（Tesla economics）发布了有关特斯拉的HEPA过滤器的内容，埃隆则回应说是的，我们可能应该更多地进行宣传。如果你错过了，Dirty Tesla展示了硬件3与硬件4相机在夜晚的对比，差别明显。这是硬件3在夜晚的画面，这是硬件4在同一场景下的画面。硬件3？硬件4。太棒了。
This afternoon moneyball and account who we've now used as a source for years has said the Model 3 older new version the pre-order is valid for 60 days. If OEM does not make delivery in 60 days due to the revamped highland Model 3 entering the market the client can take the deposit back or take the new version based on a new arrangement. This all coming from a Tesla salesperson in China so just one more anecdote to keep in mind. You may recall a few months back we talked about the Tesla solar roof lawsuit that was finally going to be put to bed well apparently it looks like a judge has rejected that settlement deal. Both Tesla and the homeowners involved in this lawsuit must provide more information about that $6 million class settlement. That's all we have for now but I'm sure we'll hear more in the weeks ahead.
今天下午，我们多年来一直作为消息来源使用的moneyball和account表示，Model 3的预购有效期为60天。如果由于新版本高地版Model 3的推出，原始设备制造商在60天内无法交付，客户可以选择退回定金或根据新的安排选择新版本。这一切都来自中国特斯拉的销售人员，所以请记住这只是一个个人经历。你可能还记得几个月前我们谈到的特斯拉太阳能屋顶诉讼案，看起来法官似乎拒绝了那项和解协议。特斯拉和参与此诉讼的房主必须提供关于这600万美元集体和解协议的更多信息。暂时就这些，但我相信在接下来的几周里我们会听到更多消息。
A German source published this article talking about the top 10 water consumers in Brandenburg and Tesla is not on the list despite what many of the environmentalists have been arguing over the past few years. It sounds like a coal company is actually using the most water in the region at 44.8 million cubic meters just last year and scrolling all the way down we'll find Gigabrelin may consume a maximum of 1.8 million cubic meters per year. Maybe I missed it but I didn't see any of those environmentalists attacking that coal company for water use.
一家德国媒体发布了一篇文章，讲述勃兰登堡州水消耗最大的前十家企业，而特斯拉并没有出现在这个名单上，尽管在过去几年中，许多环保人士一直在争论这个问题。听起来，实际上是一家煤炭公司在该地区使用的水最多，仅去年就达到了4480万立方米，继续往下滚动，我们会发现吉卡布雷林公司每年最多可能消耗180万立方米。也许是我漏看了，但我没看到任何环保人士因为煤炭公司的水资源使用而攻击过它。
A Reddit user shared their experience completing the FSD transfer for this quarter, wanted to pass it along pause if you like but some people were saying that Tesla has been taking away FSD a week before you take delivery of your new vehicle and this one anecdote said that is not true. They said they had FSD on their Model 3 up until the moment they pressed accept delivery on their new Model Y and you have ample time to expect the vehicle interior and exterior before accepting delivery. Then once you press accept delivery and get in your new car it will take a few minutes but the new car will restart itself and then FSD hardware will be enabled in the new car and removed from the old car. But you must have both cars in your Tesla app for the FSD to transfer.
一位Reddit用户分享了他们完成本季度FSD（全自动驾驶）转移的经历，希望将其传递出去。但一些人说特斯拉会在您购车前一周拿走FSD，这个例子表明这不是真的。他们表示，在他们按下新Model Y车上交付按钮之前，他们的Model 3一直拥有FSD，并且您有足够的时间检查车辆的内外部情况。然后，一旦您按下交付按钮并进入新车，新车将重新启动一小段时间，然后新车就会启用FSD硬件，并从旧车中删除。但是，您必须把这两辆车都添加到您的特斯拉应用程序中才能进行FSD转移。
And here's a subtle but still very nice feature on Tesla's new universal charger. And for the first time I'm going to see if this magic dock universal wall connector releases because I was all concerned when the unit came and I couldn't remove it from the body of the unit but I assumed that it needed to be powered up that the locking mechanism was in the closed position so you couldn't take it out. So let's say I should be able to push this tab in and release it. And as soon as I pushed the tab and I heard the locking mechanism release. So here you go. Here is the AC version of Tesla's magic dock. The tab here. Let's see if I can remove it. I can't. Nope. It's locked to the Tesla connector to the NACS connector which is how you would want it to be. You wouldn't want somebody to be able to steal this in public.
这里还有Tesla新款通用充电器上一个微妙却非常好的功能。这是我第一次看到这个神奇的充电座通用墙壁连接器能否解除连接，因为当这个装置送来的时候，我很担心无法将其从装置上取下来，但我认为它需要供电，因为锁定机制处于关闭状态，所以无法取出。所以让我们说，我应该能够按下这个标签并解除连接。当我按下标签时，我听到了锁定机制的释放声。所以这里是Tesla魔法充电座的交流版本。这里的标签。让我们看看我能否取下它。我不能。不行。它锁定在Tesla连接器和NACS连接器上，这就是你想要的。你不希望有人能够在公共场合偷走它。
We have Lamborghini announcing its first full electric vehicle but not entering production until 2028 and I would add if it does because they're labeling this a concept vehicle. We don't get much in the way of specs other than it should have over 1300 horsepower and that they're saying this should be a two door but a four seat vehicle. The glaring challenge for a company like Lambo will be convincing its core customer base that EVs are worthy of their investment. From a styling perspective, what do you guys think? It's definitely different and I kind of like it. But again, not until 2028 and if that, that's not great.
我们有兰博基尼宣布推出其首款全电动汽车，但要等到2028年才进入生产阶段，我想要补充一点，如果真的能进入生产，因为他们将这款车标注为概念车。我们并没有得到太多规格方面的信息，只知道它应该拥有超过1300马力的动力，并且他们声称这款车应该是两门四座的。对于像兰博基尼这样的公司来说，最大的挑战将是说服其核心客户群认为电动车是值得投资的。从造型的角度来看，你们觉得如何？它的确与众不同，我有点喜欢。但再次强调，要等到2028年，而且还不确定是否真的会推出，这并不理想。
We got a new Tesla stock note from Morgan Stanley. One takeaway, it's not just Tesla that's pulling different demand levers for EVs. There are many other EV makers that are also pulling different subsidy levers. But the point I want to drive home next has to do with all of this overcapacity in China.
我们收到了摩根士丹利发来的一份关于特斯拉股票的最新研究报告。其中一个观点是，推动电动车需求增长的不仅是特斯拉，还有许多其他电动车制造商在运用不同的补贴政策。不过，我想要强调的重点是中国市场上存在的产能过剩问题。
Everybody and their brother right now are talking about investor concerns over China's post-pandemic recovery, specifically in the auto market. We've also talked about industry consolidation and how many of the legacy OEM players are facing steep discounts in their Chinese auto sales and now they're partnering up with local Chinese players to try to write the ship. But they note Ford brand sales excluding Lincoln in China are down 82% since 2016.
现在所有人都在谈论投资者对中国疫后复苏的担忧，特别是汽车市场方面。我们也谈到了行业整合以及许多传统汽车制造商在中国汽车销售中面临的巨额折扣，现在它们正在与中国本土企业合作，试图改善局势。但他们指出，除林肯品牌外，福特在中国的销售额自2016年以来下降了82%。
Not only do legacy OEMs have to face tough EV competition in China from Tesla and BYD who are vertically integrated, they also have to reverse the trend of decreasing sales volume, profit and share in a decelerating domestic market. And the chart's tough to see but the takeaway is not Tesla and BYD alone represent about 40% of the Chinese EV market.
不仅传统汽车制造商在中国面临来自特斯拉和比亚迪这两家垂直一体化企业的激烈电动汽车竞争，他们还必须扭转萎缩中的销量、利润和市场份额下降趋势。尽管图表难以分辨，但重要的是特斯拉和比亚迪两家企业合计占据了中国电动汽车市场的约40%。
And what have we been talking about on the channel now for a year? As the largest most saturated EV market in the world, a deceleration of the Chinese domestic EV market has increased investor questions about a potential release of Chinese supply into the export market, potentially years ahead of expectations. Bloomberg also just put out a piece on these EV graveyards over in China that we've been talking about, just highlighting their mostly from failed rideshare companies and all of this oversupply and overcapacity from explosive growth the past three years in the Chinese market.
我们现在已经在频道上讨论了一年的时间，关于什么呢？作为世界上最大、最饱和的电动汽车市场，中国国内电动汽车市场的放缓增加了投资者对中国供应释放可能提前数年进入出口市场的问题。彭博社还刚刚发布了一篇关于中国的这些电动汽车坟场的文章，突出了它们多数来自于失败的共乘公司，并且过去三年在中国市场爆发性增长导致了这种过剩和产能过剩的情况。
Listen to this, over the last four years, 400 different EV startups in the Chinese market have gone out of business. We went from 529 down to 100 today. And most likely, there will be even more consolidation in the years to come.
听着，过去四年中，中国市场上有400家不同的电动汽车初创企业已经倒闭。我们从529家减少到今天的100家。而且很可能在未来的几年中还会有更多的合并。
From benchmark mineral intelligence in July, Chinese EV sales fell 5.6% month over month as the country's economy tipped into deflation. Again what Kathy Wood has been talking about. Lower demand growth means some Chinese producers now face a worsening overcapacity issue. And this is greatest among the midstream players but it's also affecting tier 2 and 3 cell cathode and car makers who cannot yet export to western markets.
根据Benchmark Mineral Intelligence在七月的数据显示，由于中国经济陷入通缩，中国的电动汽车销量环比下降了5.6%。这正是凯西·伍德一直在谈论的。需求增长的下降意味着一些中国生产商正面临严重的产能过剩问题。这主要影响到下游生产商，但也影响到二、三级电池正极材料和汽车制造商，他们尚不能出口到西方市场。
Pretty simple, if the biggest EV market in the world does experience a huge slowdown driven by macro factors, well Tesla's not going to be immune to those fears as a lot of the market does trade in a basket whether it's right or wrong. Some more data from benchmark, the IRA has already led to over $110 billion of capital investments announced for clean energy manufacturing projects including over $70 billion towards EV and battery supply chains across the US.
非常简单，如果全球最大的电动汽车市场因宏观因素而出现巨大放缓，特斯拉也不会对这些担忧免疫，因为很多市场都会集中在一个篮子里进行交易，无论是正确与否。根据基准的一些数据，IRA已经导致了超过1100亿美元的投资，用于宣布的清洁能源制造项目，其中包括超过700亿美元用于美国的电动汽车和电池供应链。
And we know LFP is going to be a huge part of our EV future and the North American capacity for cheaper LFP cell production is expected to grow significantly across the decade with 155.9 gigawatt hours of pipeline capacity out to 2030. And with the IRA, Tesla and Panasonic are set to be some of the main beneficiaries in line to receive $41 billion in tax credits by the end of 2032.
我们知道LFP将成为我们电动车未来的重要组成部分，并预计北美廉价LFP电池生产能力将在未来十年内显著增长，到2030年预计将有1559亿千瓦时的生产能力。同时，通过IRA，特斯拉和松下将成为主要受益方，到2032年底将获得410亿美元的税收抵免额度。
So probably one of the good examples of that would be like Tesla so in their mega pack and power products they are essentially using the same NCM cells that they were using in their EVs. And then what we saw happen 2021 I'd say was the real kind of turning point where we started to see this almost shift around what's actually kind of important for stationary storage and the kind of the key things being safety and being cost. We saw a number of battery fires that happened throughout the early 2020s. Quite a few in Korea.
所以，可能一个很好的例子就是特斯拉，在他们的超级电池包和电力产品中，他们基本上使用的是和他们的电动车中一样的NCM电池。然后我们在2021年看到的是真正的转折点，开始看到了对于静态储能来说到底是什么真正重要的方向的转变，主要是安全和成本。我们在2020年初期看到了一些电池起火的事件，韩国就发生了相当多的此类事件。
We saw a famous one happen in Australia and on the back of that we started to see an increased number of players really kind of announced their shift towards LFP that came both from the system integrated side of things but also from being pushed by the developers in some cases where they made announcements around okay we're only going to use LFP cells or we're only going to purchase LFP cells and systems from now on. So things resched to take a kind of shift from 2021 onwards. And now this market is really kind of heavily swinging towards LFP.
我们在澳大利亚看到了一个著名的例子，基于此，我们开始看到越来越多的参与者宣布他们转向LFP。这一转变既来自系统集成的角度，也来自开发者的推动，其中一些开发者宣布只使用LFP电池或从现在开始只购买LFP电池和系统。所以，从2021年开始，这个市场开始发生变化。现在这个市场已经明显地向LFP靠拢。
So year to date we're looking about 75% LFP market share with the remainder being kind of a mix between some NCM particularly on the kind of behind the meter applications. Some of the Korean manufacturers still have relatively good market share there and then also a little bit of lead assets that are still being used in a number of different regions particularly for applications such as telecoms and data centers. Lead assets are still a popular choice there.
到目前为止，我们大约占据了75%的锂铁磷酸（LFP）市场份额，剩下的市场份额主要是一些非晶硅太阳能电池（NCM），尤其是用于电表后端应用。一些韩国制造商在这方面仍占有相当大的市场份额，同时还有一些使用铅电池的资产在多个地区广泛应用，特别是用于电信和数据中心等应用。在那里，铅电池仍然是一种受欢迎的选择。
And for Tesla when we think about cost of goods sold and different export hubs always keep in mind the price of lithium battery cells in China right now could be as much as 15% cheaper than those in North America.
对于特斯拉而言，当我们考虑销售成本和不同的出口枢纽时，我们要始终记住目前中国的锂电池单元价格可能比北美便宜多达15%。
And Tesla potentially adding India as a future export hub with low cost of labor could be a really nice addition.
特斯拉未来有可能将印度作为出口中心，利用低成本劳动力，这将是一个非常好的补充。
Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend.
希望你们度过一个美好而安全的周末。
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你可以在下方链接的X和Instagram上找到我。
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