Automotive media gatekeepers, Carvana avoiding bankruptcy, CDG’s announcement for 2024 | Cliff Banks
发布时间 2023-08-11 16:05:09 来源
摘要
In this episode, I'm speaking with Cliff Banks, Founder of The Banks Report.
00:00 - Intro
01:38 - Cliff’s background
08:30 - The Fate of Carvana
16:40 - What’s next for the used car dealer?
34:10 - Are new car prices sustainable?
39:36 - Talking public auto stocks
44:25 - How automotive media is changing
56:30 - Wrapping up
Follow Cliff:
Twitter - https://twitter.com/cliff_banks
Website - https://thebanksreport.com
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This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
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中英文字稿 
I look at it as a hurricane offshore. We're seeing all the potential pads. We just don't know where it's going to hit. Well, now we're starting to feel the wind much stronger. What are the winds? Well, EV sales. What about them? The big question is, will the customers buy? That's the big question.
我把它比作一场远离海岸的飓风。我们看到了所有潜在的发展机会，只是不知道它将会袭击哪里。现在我们开始感到更强烈的风力。这些风力是什么呢？是电动车销量。那又怎样？最大的问题是，消费者会购买吗？这是一个非常重要的问题。
What's up, everyone? This is car dealership guy. You're listening to the car dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Let's get into today's episode.
大家好，这里是汽车经销商。你正在听汽车经销商的播客，这是我努力为你提供对汽车市场最客观和透明的见解的努力。让我们进入今天的节目吧。
Cliff Banks is an automotive analyst, journalist, and founder of the Banks report. In this conversation, we discussed whether a carvana bankruptcy is off the table. We'll use car valuations, actually crash at any point, how AI will get integrated into your car, where public auto group stock price is declined from here, and how automotive media is evolving faster than ever. But before we get into the show, this episode is brought to you by Full Path. Wasted data is a serious issue in automotive, but data is the key to driving revenues, which means some dealers out there are just ignoring a goldmine that is staring them in the face. Let's face it, most dealerships are completely overrun with data silos. None of the data sources are integrated with each other, leaving the data as a jumbled mess instead of a clean set that could be turning into cash. Full Path solves this by gathering, cleaning, and sorting your data into one platform so you can use it to speak to your customers' needs with killer AI-powered marketing campaigns. My friends over at Full Path are breaking barriers and I'm really excited to have them as a partner of the podcast. I believe in their product and more importantly, intermission to help dealers grow. Full Path can help you turn your data into dollars, find them at fullpath.com.
克利夫·班克斯（Cliff Banks）是一位汽车分析师、记者和银行报创始人。在这次对话中，我们讨论了Carvana（卡瓦纳）是否会破产的问题。我们将使用汽车估值，实际的崩溃点，人工智能如何融入您的汽车，公共汽车集团股价从这里下跌，以及汽车媒体如何发展得比以往更快。
但在我们进入节目之前，本集由Full Path（全路径）赞助。在汽车行业，浪费的数据是一个严重的问题，但数据是推动收入的关键，这意味着一些经销商就是忽视了一个盈利机会。面对现实吧，大多数经销商完全被分散的数据孤岛所淹没。这些数据源之间没有集成，导致数据成堆，而不是一个可以转化为现金的干净数据集。Full Path通过收集、清理和整理您的数据到一个平台上，解决了这个问题，让您可以通过强大的人工智能营销活动满足客户的需求。我在Full Path的朋友们在打破界限，我很高兴能够把他们作为播客的合作伙伴。我相信他们的产品，更重要的是，他们致力于帮助经销商成长。Full Path可以帮助您将数据变现，您可以在fullpath.com找到他们。
All views of car dealership die and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
本播客的所有汽车经销商和嘉宾的观点都只是他们个人的意见。不应将其中任何观点视为财务建议。本播客仅供信息目的使用。
All right, Cliff Banks on the CBG podcast. Cliff, how's it going? It is great to be here, Mr. car dealership guy. This is awesome. Thanks for having me. Thanks for joining. I'm excited about this. I don't think there's, and I don't say this slightly, but many people that have been around the block in this industry have seen as much as you have. And I'm also just excited to chat about your media background, which is very up my alley nowadays. So before we kick that off, can you just give us your background? Tell us a little bit about how you got to this point in your career?
好了，克利夫·班克斯在CBG播客中。克利夫，你好吗？很高兴能在这里，汽车经销商先生。太棒了。感谢邀请我。谢谢加入。我对此感到兴奋。我认为，我不是轻易这么说，但在这个行业里很少有人像你一样经历过这么多。而且，我很兴奋地聊一聊你的媒体背景，因为现在这正是我感兴趣的。在我们开始之前，你能告诉我们一下你的背景吗？可以告诉我们一些关于你职业生涯的情况吗？
Well, like you said, I've been around for a while. As you can tell from my gray hairs, my wife consistently points out to me. But it's 33 years now in the industry at some level. 23 years ago, I joined Ward's Auto. And I ended up over a 10 year period morphing from a journalist to editorial director. Did I stay? What even was Ward's Auto 30 years ago?
嗯，正如你所说的，我已经在这个行业待了很久。就像你可以从我的白发看出来一样，我的妻子经常指出给我看。但是，我已经在这个行业有着33年的经验了。23年前，我加入了沃德汽车公司。在接下来的十年里，我从一名记者逐渐转变为编辑总监。我是否一直呆在这里？那么，30年前的沃德汽车公司又是什么样子呢？
OK, so Ward's Auto.com, which is still there. If you got to, I mean, it's one of the oldest automotive media publishing companies in the world. It's gone through some iterations of Ward's Auto World Awards dealer business, Ward's engine vehicle technology updates were some of the print publications that they had for years. I was the editorial director of all the retail publications and events that we did. The first article I ever wrote for them was an EV related article. Ward's engine vehicle technology update was the newsletter. And it was printed in Ward's Auto World. But it was about the Ford's Thinkmobile, which they were doing in partnership with the company out of Ward.
好的，所以还有Ward's Auto.com。如果你们去过的话，我的意思是，它是世界上最古老的汽车媒体出版公司之一。它经历了一些变革，包括Ward's Auto World Awards的经销商业务，以及多年来持续发行的Ward's engine vehicle technology updates等印刷刊物。我是我们所做的所有零售出版物和活动的编辑总监。我为他们写的第一篇文章是与电动汽车相关的文章。Ward's engine vehicle technology update 是他们的通讯杂志。它是印刷在Ward's Auto World上的。但它是关于与Ward的一家公司合作的福特Thinkmobile的。
Thinkmobile. What does that tell us about that?
Thinkmobile（思迈动力）这个名字告诉我们什么呢？
It's a glorified golf cart, essentially. But we went back to 2000. That was the first story ever I ever was published with.
本质上它只是一辆被吹嘘的高尔夫车。但我们回到了2000年。那是我发表的第一个故事。
So how did you transition from there to the banks report?
你是如何从那个话题过渡到银行报告的呢？
Well, they had Ward's Auto World Report, which was a weekly newsletter. And I always, I think as I started growing in my career awards, I started seeing the influence of capital and investment to the investor community on the automotive space. I think the how moment came when I broke his story that Michael Dell was trying to buy the Asbury Automotive Group at the time, trying to put a deal together. And there's a whole story involved with that. But I really started paying attention and obviously the Bill Gates and Eddie Lambert that were involved with AutoNation. So I started thinking along those lines and realizing that the industry didn't have anything that was focused on covering the retail space from that perspective. So I kind of had this concept of the banks report or something along those lines.
嗯，他们有《沃德汽车世界报告》，那是一份每周的通讯。随着我职业生涯的发展，我开始意识到资本和投资对投资者群体在汽车业领域的影响。当我爆出迈克尔·戴尔当时试图收购阿斯伯里汽车集团的消息，试图达成一项交易时，我觉得这种影响达到了顶峰。这其中涉及了一个完整的故事。但是我开始关注比尔·盖茨和埃迪·兰伯特与AutoNation公司的关系。于是我开始思考，意识到该行业没有针对零售方面的报道。所以我想到了类似"银行报告"之类的概念。
And what was the purpose behind the banks report?
银行报告背后的目的是什么？
Well, the banks report was to really, look, it was like I'm car dealership guy in like magazine format. Yeah. Well, it was, yeah, it was a B2B analysis newsletter, subscription base that we charge money, providing analysis. I started covering the dealer by sell market. So I was the first one, I actually started accumulating all that buy sell data. Now you're seeing it. Oh, interesting. News is doing it. You have the broker. So Alan Hagg has his report. That's the needs he carried. Aaron Credid has hers, which those are phenomenal reports. But I was the first one, I think Indian industry to start compiling that data and aggregating and then starting to put some analysis behind it, started doing the same thing on the M&A tech side. So that was the purpose of that.
嗯，这个银行的报告确实很像我在汽车经销商杂志上的人。是的。嗯，它属于B2B分析通讯，我们向订阅者收费，提供分析报告。我开始关注买卖市场。所以我是第一个开始收集买卖数据的人。现在你看到了。噢，有趣。新闻也在做这个。你还有经纪人。艾伦·哈格有他的报告。那是他所需的。埃伦·克雷迪有她的报告，那些都是非常好的报告。但是我是业内最早开始汇编并加以分析的人，我也在科技并购方面做同样的事情。所以那就是这个报告的目的。
And listen, I had no clue what I was doing, none. I mean, it was, I was a media guy, and I was an editorial director, but I just, I knew my analysis was sound and I thought there was a market would be a market for that. And there was, and it leveraged my, you know, log type in the industry. You basically, you started aggregating all this like buy sell data, pretty much all the M&A transactions. And then you package that up and you sold that as information to other dealers, I'm assuming, right?
听着，我当时完全不知道自己在做什么，一点儿也不知道。我的意思是，我是一个媒体人，也是一名编辑总监，但我只是知道我的分析是正确的，我认为市场上可能会有需求。果然如此，我利用了自己在这个行业的关系。你基本上开始整合所有的买卖数据，几乎所有的并购交易。然后你将这些打包出售给其他交易商，我猜是这样没错吧？
No, no, no, anyone that wanted to subscribe to the, or I didn't want to subscribe. So they paid, yeah, they paid, paid to smart subscriptions. So a lot of investment firms, OEMs, dealer principals, vendors, wanted to get their hands on that data because there was no place where they could see or find, you know, in terms of their sales teams who was buying or selling. Yeah, and also like price discovery, people want to know like what's going on out there, it makes no sense.
不，不，不，任何想要订阅的人，或者我自己不想订阅。所以他们付费了，是的，他们付费了，付费购买了智能订阅服务。所以很多投资公司、原始设备制造商、经销商负责人和供应商都想要获取那些数据，因为他们无法在销售团队中找到一个可以查看或找到购买或销售情况的地方。还有，人们也想要了解价格走势，他们希望知道现在的市场情况，这才有意义。
By the way, it seems like it's a very similar audience to mine. I have a pretty diversified audience, but it's comprised of dealers, vendors, consumers, investors. I would say those are like the four biggest buckets. Right. And that's why you'll see, I'm very deliberately like to talk about, you know, sometimes I'll talk about B2B topics, sometimes I'll talk about consumer topics. Sometimes I'll tell you what's the best deal. Sometimes I'll talk about, you know, what's happening in the car business. It's also like a very diversified format like that. Yeah, you're much more diverse than even what I am or want to be actually, I don't have that kind of bandwidth team.
顺便说一句，听起来这个观众很像我的观众。我的观众相当多样化，分为经销商、供应商、消费者和投资者。我会说这些是最重要的四个类别。对的。这也是为什么你会看到，我非常有意地谈论一些内容，有时我会谈论B2B话题，有时我会谈论消费者话题。有时我会告诉你最好的交易，有时我会谈论汽车行业的发展。这也是一种非常多样化的形式。是的，你比我更多样化，实际上我没有那样的团队能力和资源。
Well, it's funny you say that because like, there's a thing, right? On one hand, in order to grow your reach, meaningfully, and when I say meaningfully, I mean, by the hundreds of thousands, if not the millions, you have to appeal to consumers as well. You have to. Yes. Right. But there's no doubt about it that the richer content that's also tougher to find elsewhere is what's going to appeal B2B dealers, vendors, investors. Right. Because anyone, you know, at the end of the day, like, anyone could try to agree consumer-focused content. I mean, if you Google like, car buying tips, like there's a million people that have tried to do that. I don't even think that's interesting. And that's why I don't really talk about that. It just doesn't interest me, you know? You'll see me talk about like best deals because that's super actionable and practical. But like, car buying tips on that, I'm just, you know, I say go find like the other 50,000 people on Google that do that. But I think that like, you bring a different perspective to that whole conversation. And I think you've done an incredible job. I've watched you from the beginning. You've done an incredible job at growing that audience in talking to that diverse audience.
嗯，你这么说真的很有趣，因为有这么一件事，对吧？从一方面来说，为了增加你的影响力，真正地，我是说，以数十万甚至数百万的规模，你也必须吸引消费者。你必须这么做。是的。对。但毫无疑问，更加丰富并且在其他地方难以找到的内容才会吸引到B2B经销商、供应商和投资者。对。因为不管怎样，你知道，在一天结束的时候，任何人都可以努力创造面向消费者的内容。我的意思是，如果你谷歌搜索“购车小贴士”，会发现有数百万人试图这样做。我甚至觉得那并不有趣。所以我不太会谈论那个。你会看到我会谈论最优惠的交易，因为那是非常具体和实用的。但是，关于购车小贴士，我会说你去谷歌寻找其他五万人来做。但我认为你对整个对话带来了不同的观点。我认为你在吸引多样化的受众上做得非常棒。我从一开始就一直在关注你。
I'll be honest with you, I just never, I don't know if that I have that capability. I mean, I prefer to be behind the scenes a little more, which is weird because I have a conference, a podcast to be honest. I've got to, she had no just newsletter, but, you know, I spent, I'll tell you. I like to be the troublemaker. Yeah. Yes. I spend more time, I think much of my time reading SEC filings and court documents and obscure reports, trying to figure out where, you know, what's really going on behind the scenes, you know. So I did, I spent a lot of that time researching.
坦白说，我得告诉你，我可能并没有那样的能力。我更喜欢在幕后工作，这有点奇怪，因为我有自己的会议、播客。我也有简讯，毕竟，你知道的，我花了很多时间。我喜欢搞事情。是的，没错。我觉得我大部分时间都在阅读证券交易委员会的文件、法庭文件和不太常见的报告，试图弄清楚幕后到底发生了什么。所以，我花了很多时间在研究上。
I want to jump into something that you mentioned SEC filings. Yes. Sort of breaking my flow over here, but I'm really curious to know, you put out a very thoughtful analysis on Carvana the other day. I think a lot of people, I think there's a lot of noise, EVs, Carvada, like there's so much noise, it's hard to really understand like what is going on from someone that's sober, that is not trying to buy a someone that's not talking to your book, right? So what is the deal with Carvana right now? Can you like give us an explanation of just like, how do they get to the point they're at today? And specifically, there's all this restructuring talk internally, right?
我想深入了解你提到的《美国证券交易委员会备案》，是的。虽然这有些打断了我的思路，但我真的很好奇，你前几天对Carvana进行了一份非常深入的分析。我认为很多人在关注的时候会受到很多噪音的干扰，比如电动汽车、Carvana等等，有太多噪音，很难真正理解从一个清醒客观的角度来看到底发生了什么，而不是一个试图买股票或者与你目标不一致的人在说话，对吗？那么，Carvana现在到底怎么样了？你能简单解释一下，他们是如何达到今天的这个阶段的吗？特别是，内部存在着各种重组的讨论，对吗？
Stock shot up like, I don't know, like 50% in one day. What's the deal with the company nowadays? Well, first of all, it's run by incredibly smart people. I mean, that Ernie Garcia, a junior, and his son, the third. I mean, hey, look, Ernie, the elder is a long history. Some have checkered admittedly, I think going back several years, but nevertheless, an incredibly intelligent financial whiz. One of the giants in the whole used car space, they have some smart people on their board also. They grew quickly. I'll be honest with you, I don't know that anyone knows exactly what the end game is gonna be for Carvana. You can see it going any number of ways. What are those ways? I mean, look, at some point, would there be an acquisition? Maybe if it made sense, it's hard. Who could acquire them? Who could acquire them? Any private equity firm, any public, you know, publicly traded, anyone like that could make a play. You know, you would think it would have happened by now, but maybe there's been conversations along those lines. But again, it's an evolving story. You're dealing with people who are incredibly smart, even the folks that they've gotten involved with, such as Palo and the others, the other investors, debtors, I guess, or bondholders. They know how to play this game. And it's, you know, I think we've underestimated it. But are they playing you at the expense of like the public, the retail, or are they just great at what they do? It seems like the aisle is divided between some of the.
股票在一天之内涨了50%，这家公司最近怎么了？首先，这个公司由非常聪明的人经营。我是说，那个小厄尼·加西亚和他的儿子，第三代。我是说，看啊，大厄尼有很长的历史。有些是不光彩的，我想几年前就开始了，但无论如何，他是个非常聪明的金融奇才。在整个二手车领域都是巨人之一，他们的董事会也有一些聪明人。他们发展迅速。老实说，我不知道谁能确切地知道Carvana的最终目标会是什么。你可以看到它可以朝任何方向发展。那些方向是什么呢？我的意思是，某一时刻，可能会有收购吗？如果有意义的话，这很难说。谁能收购他们？任何私募股权公司、任何上市公司或其他类似的人都可以发起一场收购行动。你会认为应该早就发生了吧，但也许已经有过相关的对话。但无论如何，这是个不断发展的故事。你要面对的是一群非常聪明的人，甚至包括像帕洛和其他投资者、债权人这样的人。他们知道如何玩这个游戏。我认为我们低估了他们。但他们是以公众或零售为代价在玩弄你，还是他们只是在他们所擅长的领域非常优秀呢？似乎舆论对此存在分歧。
Yeah, like anytime you're a public company, you come in with new technology, you're going to be polarizing, right? Look at Elon Musk with us. Look at any, I mean, any tech companies, it has its investors who are short, you know, who are playing the short game, you have the true blue believers in the technology. I think it's a mixture. I think it's financial. Look, they're clearly a very astute of financial engineering. And they're going to make it work for them. And there's going to be investors that get hurt in the process. I think is there bankruptcy pending at some point? It won't be for a couple of years, more likely. I don't see anything along those lines happening for a while. Now, they clearly bought themselves time. Did they buy themselves time, or did they buy themselves, are they immortal? Obviously, no company is immortal, but what actually happened here with the latest, I see your account shaking your head.
是啊，像你们成为上市公司之后，引入新技术，肯定会引发争议，对吧？看看埃隆·马斯克，就像我们这样。看看任何科技公司，它都有一些投资者持有空头，他们在进行短线交易，而还有那些真正坚信该技术的人。我认为这是一种混合。我认为这与财务有关。看，他们显然非常精明地进行了财务工程。他们会让它为自己工作。在这个过程中会有一些投资者会受到损害。我想，它是否会面临破产风险？可能还需要几年的时间才会发生。我暂时没有看到任何相关情况。现在，他们显然给自己争取到了时间。他们是争取到了时间，还是他们是不朽的？显然，没有公司是不朽的，但这最新的一切背后到底发生了什么，我看到你的账户在摇头。
Well, they bought themselves time. They've taken more than a billion. I mean, between one and a half, like $1 billion out of their cost structure over the last year. You know, I mean, the question is, can they get those costs down enough to where they're selling cars profitably? And they've not shown any ability yet to do that. There's more cuts to be made. I think they have to get things allied. But again, they're also dealing with operating within an environment that has been completely whacked from COVID to all of the chip shortage playing havoc with new car values. So I think, you know, it's going to take time for some of the stuff to clear up. But listen, Carvana's not going away any types in there. They're going to be part of landscape. They're going to be a significant player in the independent use car space and for the foreseeable future.
嗯，他们给自己争取了时间。在过去一年里，他们削减了超过十亿美元的成本。我的意思是，他们能不能把成本降到足够低的水平以盈利销售汽车呢？至今为止，他们还没有展示出这样的能力。还有更多的削减将会进行。我认为他们必须使事务联合起来。但同时，他们还要在一个被COVID以及芯片短缺对新车价值造成严重影响的环境中运营。因此，我认为一些问题的解决需要时间。但是请注意，Carvana并不会消失。他们将成为行业的一部分，在未来可预见的时间内将在独立二手车市场上扮演重要角色。
So what's the bulk case and what's the bear case here, right? Like in five years, I'm not even going too far, but just five years. What's the bulk case? They're not able to get their cost structures, their cost down to a point where they can sell cars profit. We that's the bear. What happens, right? Like what happens then? Then you either get sold or they end up declaring bank, or they go private. Yeah, I think there's, and again, it's hard. Let me be even more, I want to go even deeper. Like, yeah, there's a world where they are on like, however, even say, like unvertically integrate, right? Like where they start shutting off business units and suddenly they don't own their own inventory or they don't do their own reconditioning or they don't do their own logistics or do you think there's a world where that happens in order for them to right size their cost structure? Or like, do they become like a listing site? I don't know. Again, it just, it depends.
那么，这里的主要情况是什么，悲观情况又是什么，对吧？比如说五年后，我甚至不想说得太远，只是五年后。主要情况是什么呢？他们无法将成本结构降低到能盈利销售汽车的程度。那就是悲观情况。那么会发生什么呢？要么他们被卖掉，要么他们宣布破产，或者他们私有化。是的，我想还有一种情况。虽然很难。我想更深入地探讨一下。比如说，有一种情况是他们基本上取消垂直整合，对吧？比如说他们开始关闭业务部门，突然间他们不再拥有自己的库存，不再进行自己的再调整，不再进行自己的物流，你觉得有这样一种情况出现，他们可以通过此来调整成本结构吗？或者他们会变成一个列表网站？我不知道。再次强调，这取决于情况。
The big question here is whether they can get their expenses aligned to the point where they can start selling cars profitably. That's the big question. If they can do that, it's going to be, it's going to be a fine company, sound company. If they can't then, but again, they're going to have some time here because they've been able to offset offload some of those huge interest payments over the next two years. Their first debt maturity is until 2028. Now, so you moved that from 2025 to, I think, 2028. So like I said, they've got some time in this. And I'm sure they're looking at it closer. I would imagine that at some point there's an acquisition.
在这里最重要的问题是他们是否能够将费用调整到一个能够盈利销售汽车的程度上。这是一个非常重要的问题。如果他们能做到这一点，那么它会成为一个非常好的、稳健的公司。如果他们不能做到，但再次，他们会有一些时间，因为他们能够在未来两年内摆脱掉一些巨额利息支付。他们的第一笔债务到期时间是在2028年之后。现在，所以你将那从2025年推迟到了，我想，2028年。所以就像我说的，他们在这方面还有一些时间。我相信他们正在更仔细地考虑这个问题。我想在某个时候会有一次收购。
Well, but, you know, I, again, it's, I mean, I don't know. I don't like making predictions on things like this because these stories evolve so quickly or, you know, in over time. I don't think it's just predictions necessarily. I think it's more so really playing out all the different probabilities and scenarios for the future. Well, I think we can take bankruptcy off the table for the foreseeable future. Got it. I don't think that's, yeah. I don't, I don't think that's going to be part of the two months ago that would not have been the case. Is that right? It was certainly an open question. And it seemed like, and frankly, you know, we had this conversation in December in June, you know, we had it at any day. I had it with a couple of people who were insiders. They knew the carbona story intimately. And it was really the conventional wisdom among those of us that watch it closely is that it was really just, it was a race against the clocks, so to speak.
嗯，但是你知道的，我又是说的是，我是说，我不知道。我不喜欢对这种事情作出预测，因为这些故事发展得非常快，或者说随着时间的推移会有所变化。我认为这不仅仅是预测的问题，更是真正展示了未来各种可能性和情景的问题。好吧，我认为在可预见的未来破产不会是一个选择。明白了。我不认为那是可能的，是的。我认为在两个月前，情况可能不是这样的。是这样吗？当时确实存在疑问。坦率地说，我们在去年12月和今年6月都谈到过这个问题，我和一些内部人士进行了讨论，他们对carbona故事非常熟悉。对我们这些密切关注此事的人来说，普遍认为那只是一场与时间赛跑的比赛，可以这么说。
And then, you know, in March, it started coming out that they were looking at restructuring the debt. So became a, a South thesis that they were going to be able to do that at some point. It was beneficial to everyone. And that's what we saw happen. He created a win-win. I think the parties that that bondholders and the executives aboard at Carbona came together and created a win-win. I think it, you know, at some level, the shareholders were hurt in terms of with the stock price. Obviously, stock price went up, but I think over time, I mean, I think it's better for shareholders if you have a company that's still in play. And I'm seeing the stock price probably hovering at 30 to 40 ranges, probably a good spot for it.
然后，在三月份，有消息传出他们正在考虑重组债务的事宜。于是，一个南方的议题出现了，那就是他们将能够在某个时候实现这一点。这对每个人都有好处。而且，我们所见证的正是这样的事情发生了。他创造了一个双赢局面。我认为债券持有者和Carbona的董事们达成了一个双赢局面。我认为在某种程度上，股东受到了损失，股价受到了影响。当然，股价上涨了，但我认为从长远来看，如果有一个仍在运作中的公司，对股东来说更好。我认为股价在30到40的范围内徘徊可能是一个不错的位置。
You speak with a lot of dealers. What's the sentiment around Carbona right now? It was in the dealer community. Yeah, I mean, listen, dealers are no fans. No fans of the company. I mean, one, it's advertising messaging. Anytime a company comes out and starts advertising, make dealers look like folks are competent. I think the reaction is pretty predictable there. But I think there's a lot of skepticism, too, about the model. I mean, Carbona was in a high growth position for the few years before COVID. I think once COVID hit and we got deeper into the ramifications of that black swan event, then you start seeing that Carbona's business model had a lot of question marks.
你跟很多经销商有接触。目前Carbona的市场反应如何？经销商界有所聆听。没错，我是说，经销商对这家公司可不怎么喜欢。他们对该公司的广告宣传态度非常冷淡。每当一家公司开始推广，并嘲讽经销商无能，我想大家对此的反应可以预见。但是，我觉得人们对这个模式也持有很多怀疑态度。在COVID疫情爆发前的几年，Carbona一直处于快速增长的状态。我认为一旦COVID疫情爆发，并深入研究其对经济影响的研究之后，人们开始对Carbona的商业模式抱有疑问。
I mean, I do think they've sort of cleaned up their act with advertising, though, from at least what I'd see at whatever. Sure, yeah, sure to have. But once you go down that path, you're going to have dealers have long memories. Yeah. So forget. Yeah, I do. I do agree with that. And, you know, listen, I think there's things that dealers can learn from Carbona. But I'll tell you what, there were things I think Carbona and I said, this is that Corona would learn from the franchise dealers and even this established independent use car dealers. So look, they're part of the landscape and they're going to be there. And listen, it's an online model. It's not unlike car, I mean, car racks is an online way they are now, but it just, Corona is another independent use car. Yeah, stick into the view of used cars right now.
我的意思是，我确实认为他们在广告方面有所改进，至少从我在哪里看到的情况来看是这样。当然，是的，肯定会有。但一旦你走上那条路，经销商们会记住很久。是的。所以忘掉吧。是的，我同意。你知道，我觉得经销商可以向Carbona学习一些东西。但我告诉你，有一些事情我认为Carbona和我说，这是Corona应该从连锁经销商甚至是这些成熟的独立二手车经销商那里学到的。所以看吧，他们是这个行业的一部分，他们会一直存在。而且，听着，这是一个在线模式。这与汽车托架不同，尽管它们现在也是在线的，但Corona只是另一家独立二手车经销商，专注于二手车市场。
There's a ton that's been happening there lately. You know, I tweeted about American car center. I tweeted about US auto sales, both, you know, relatively large independent dealer groups with dozens of stores that have just you know, gone under and like the span of hours or days. I mean, at least from what we know, I mean, I'm sure there's other stuff that happened behind the scenes.
最近那里发生了很多事情。你知道，我在推特上发了有关美国汽车中心的推文。我还发了关于美国汽车销售的推文，这两个都是相对大型的独立经销商集团，拥有几十家店铺，但突然之间倒闭了，可能只是在几小时或几天的时间内。至少从我们所知，可能还有其他在幕后发生的事情。
Of course, Sonic Echo Park publicly traded company. They shut down a couple stores here in like the Northeast. Yeah, I think 14 total is it's 14 total. Yeah. Yeah.
当然，索尼克回声公共交易公司。他们关闭了一些店铺，位于类似东北部的地区。是的，我想总共有14个。是的。是的。
What's next for the used car dealer? Like, why is this happening right now? What's your take on this?
二手车销售商接下来会面临什么？就是说，为什么这种情况现在会发生？你对此有什么看法？
Well, try to keep it somewhat at a high level here. But yeah, it's just everyone's trying to adjust. I mean, it certainly interest rates have gone up significantly. I think that hurts the buy here. Pay here, dealers. You have significantly more competition for inventory and a declining inventory, especially in that sweet spot of that zero to five or six year old vehicles. I mean, I think that 16.1 million in 2022 or 2021. And it's going to be we're looking by 2026 being down to, I think, 12. So you're looking at a four million unit drop in supply.
嗯，尽量保持在一个较高水平上。但是是的，每个人都在努力适应。我的意思是，肯定会有利率显著上升。我认为这对于这里的购买付款经销商是有害的。您在库存方面有更多的竞争，而且库存在那些零到五六岁的车辆这个黄金年龄段尤为减少。我认为到2022年或2021年，销量可能会达到1610万。而到了2026年，我们预计这个数字会下降到1200万左右。所以，您可以预计供给会减少400万辆。
Oh, is that used cars here? First use cars use cars zero to five year old category, which is the prime, you know, category for used cars, right? So and what that number you provided, what is that? Is that on dealer lots? What were one of these cars?
哦，这里有二手车吗？首先是二手车零到五年的范畴，这是二手车的黄金范畴，你知道的，对吧？那么你提供的那个数字是什么意思呢？这是指经销商的库存吗？其中一辆车是什么样的呢？
Yeah, yeah. That's that's that will be the available inventory that's out there. Got it. That everyone's going to be fighting for. Yeah. Yeah.
是的，是的。这就是可供选择的存货。明白了。每个人都会为此而奋斗。是的。是的。
So that's why you're saying that that segment, like the five to six year old is going to keep declining.
所以你的意思是，这就是为什么你说那个五到六岁的群体会继续下降的原因。
Yes. Roughly by another like 20 plus percent over the next couple of years. Yeah. And that's going to be, you know, in that data, I think both SMP global and wards and JD power, Cox all have similar data to that. So, you know, what that means, I think we're not going to see a crash of used car valuations in that category. You know, you're going to see some fluctuating, you know, in terms of the levels, wholesale levels, but I don't think there's going to be any massive decline there. Heart of that is going to be determined by what happens, you know, what use car or we do cars. I frankly think we'll start seeing more incentives.
是的。大约在接下来的几年中，预计会增长约20%。是的。在这方面，我认为SMP Global、Wards和JD Power Cox都有类似的数据。所以，我认为这意味着我们不会在这个类别中看到二手车估值的崩溃。你会看到一些波动，主要是批发价的波动，但我认为不会有任何大幅度的下降。这主要取决于二手车或新车的供应情况。我真的认为我们会开始看到更多的激励措施。
Coming on the new car side on new car side. And depending on the brand, I mean, Toyota is still pretty lean, but everyone else seems to be getting pretty fat. And it just, it cracks me up because, you know, a couple of years ago, everyone was talking about product discipline, production discipline. And we're not going back to the incentive era. You know, we're going to keep a lid on our production. Those of us who have been around a while left at those. Why do you want to offer that? You just, it's, you can't give up that work. You can't. You can't, so I don't care how much profit you're making. And you got to keep your list. You have to single the UAW. You got to keep your plants running. They have to be running at a certain level to maintain profitability. You know, and you're talking 88, 90% probably capacity. You know, you have investors, you know, Wall Street that hammers you if you start losing share. And, and all it takes is one to, to go down that route and everyone else is going to start to follow. And I think Koreans are incredibly opportunistic in their mindset in finding ways that you can create or gain market shares. So they're definitely going to play a game and, and die.
在新车方面登场. 而且根据品牌来看，我的意思是，丰田仍然相当紧凑，但其他公司似乎变得相当庞大。这真的让我开怀大笑，因为，你知道的，几年前，每个人都在谈论产品纪律，生产纪律。我们不会回到激励时代。你知道的，我们会控制好生产。我们这些年长一点的人一直坚持这一点。为什么你要提供那个?你知道的，你不能放弃那份工作。你不能。所以我不在乎你赚多少钱。你必须保持你的市场份额。你必须对工会保持单一态度。你必须保持你的工厂运转。它们必须以一定水平运转来保持盈利能力。你知道的，你谈论的可能是88到90%的产能率。你有投资者，你知道的，华尔街会狠狠地打击你，如果你开始失去市场份额。只需要一个人采取这样的路线，其他人就会开始效仿。而我认为韩国人的思维方式非常机敏，在寻找可以创造或获得市场份额的方法上。所以他们一定会玩这个游戏，而且玩得很好。
So you're pretty much in the camp of we're going to see more incentives. New car prices will come down.
所以你基本上持有“我们将会看到更多的激励措施”的观点。新车价格将会下降。
Yes. Yeah.
是的。嗯。
Wow. Yeah.
哇。对啊。
Well, we've seen on the eV side already, right?
好的，我们已经在电动车一侧看到过了，对吧？
Yeah. Tell us about that.
是的，请告诉我们这件事的情况。
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Ford just knocked what $10,000 off the lightning. You know, Tesla's been playing a game. Obviously he's playing pressure. Tesla is applying pressure to the other manufacturers on the eV side. But what we're going to see, I think is it's going to be brand by brand. I think it's going to be more market based, focused, targeted as opposed to national. We're going to see an ebb of flow. And I think we're going to see a world in which cutting and raising prices on vehicles is going to be a part of the landscape.
是的。是的。我的意思是，福特刚刚在闪电上减价了10,000美元。你知道，特斯拉一直在玩游戏。显然，他正在对其他电动车制造商施加压力。但我认为我们将会看到的是品牌与品牌之间的差异。我认为它将更加市场导向，目标明确，而不是全国范围。我们将会看到一个起伏的潮流。我认为我们将会看到一个价格上下调整是汽车市场的一部分的世界。
Yeah. So if we're going to see more incentives, which I think makes sense, I'm not in the camp of like, hey, we're not going to see more incentives because OEMs, I mean, car manufacturers have learned that they should keep supply low and profits remain high. I just don't think again, I'm I'm a free market doesn't work that way. I don't see it. To your point, like someone is going to, you know, someone is going to, they're going to jump to gun and start lowering prices or whatever. And then everyone has to follow just how a free market works.
是的。所以如果我们要看到更多的激励措施，我认为这是有道理的，我不是那种认为我们不会看到更多的激励措施的人，因为原始设备制造商，也就是汽车制造商已经学到了他们应该保持供应低，利润保持高的道理。我只是不认为自由市场是这样运作的。我不认为会像你说的那样，有人会跳出来降低价格，然后其他人都得跟着降价，这就是自由市场的运作方式。
But how is that going to impact than the use car side, right? Like obviously new cars compute with use cars to a certain extent. And so what do you think the outlook looks like for the use car business? Because you mentioned that valuations likely will crash because there's such a shortage, but will this then actually reduce demand for the use cars?
但是这对二手车市场的影响会如何呢？新车显然会在某种程度上与二手车竞争。那么你对二手车行业的前景有何看法？因为你提到估值可能会下跌，因为供应紧缺，但这是否会实际上减少对二手车的需求？
Yeah, sure. But again, I think when you're looking at the number, the inventory levels getting to the level, but we're talking about 12 million or so, they're still going to be a healthy demand.
是的，当然。但是我认为当你看过那个数字后，存货水平会达到一定程度，但我们还是在谈论约1,200万吨的规模，仍然会有一个强劲的需求。
I will say this. We are entering a period and I wrote in 2018 column talking about the uncertainty that the auto industry was going to encounter over the next several years and we're why wouldn't you see back then? Well, just in and I think it's an uncertainty that we've never seen before in this space and it was being brought on by things such as the collective vehicle. And I'm not talking necessarily right self driving or autonomous. We're talking about software defined vehicles as determines now becoming and in electric view. And we're starting to see the big program. Now, this was before COVID when I wrote this, but now we are right. I think I look at it as a hurricane. Yeah, we're seeing a hurricane offshore and we're seeing all the potential pads that that the hurricane can take. We just don't know where it's going to hit. So we're staying here in South Florida and we're watching.
我会这样说。我们正在进入一个时期，我在2018年的专栏中谈到了未来几年汽车行业将面临的不确定性，而我们当时为什么没有看到？现在，我们正站在不确定性前所未有的空间中，这是由一些事情带来的，比如共享汽车。我并不是指自动驾驶或自主驾驶，而是指软件定义的汽车正在日益普及。我们开始看到大型计划的出现。当我写这篇文章时，COVID尚未到来，但现在我们是对的。我认为这就像一场飓风。是的，我们看到离岸有一场飓风，我们看到飓风可能采取的所有潜在路径。我们只是不知道它会袭击哪里。所以我们待在这里的南佛罗里达，并且在观察。
You know, I know it's exactly where it's going to hit. Well, now we're starting to feel the winds much stronger. What are the winds? Well, EV sales. What about them? The big question is, will the customers buy? Are the customers going to get on board? That's the big question. You're saying you're like without like government incentives and whatnot? Well, I go, well, even with government incentives, even with the IRA, the inflation reduction act, I think that the the and I don't think anyone has an answer yet or knows fully how it's going to play out. I mean, there's some scary possibilities here. Like what? Well, when I say scary, all right. So let's look at different scenarios. Let's say EV sales take off. Let's say GM is incredibly successful with its launch of the Equinox, which is going to happen.
你知道，我知道它会准确地命中目标。现在我们开始感受到更强烈的风了。这些风是什么意思？是指电动车销售。关于它们呢？最重要的问题是，顾客会购买吗？顾客会上车吗？这是一个重要的问题。你是说没有政府的激励措施等等吗？我回答说，即使有政府的激励措施，即使有 IRA（通胀削减法案），我认为人们还没有完全了解其结果或如何发展。我的意思是，这里有一些可怕的可能性。比如什么？当我说可怕时，好吧。那么我们来看看不同的情景。假设电动车销售开始起飞。假设通用汽车公司在推出Equinox车型时非常成功，这是肯定会发生的。
Now, I mean, just now this week started rolling out the EV blazer, trailblazer off the line and going into dealership lots. Let's say Ford figures out some of their challenges. Volkswagen, I mean, some of these players and let's say EV sales become the, become the dominant vehicle of choice for the market over the next five years. All right. Wow. What, I mean, what does that do across the board? I it's going to have a significant impact on dealers on the retail market. Now, we can get it. We can get into that later. I don't think the dealers are going away by any stretch of the imagination. But I think there is going to impact that market significantly. I think the whole how will it impact the market out?
现在，我的意思是，就在这一周开始，EV Blazer和Trailblazer从生产线上下线并进入经销商的展厅。假设福特解决了一些挑战。大众，我的意思是，有些参与者，假设在未来五年里，EV销售成为市场的主导选择。好吧。哇，我是说，这将在各个领域产生什么影响呢？它将对经销商和零售市场产生重大影响。现在我们可以稍后讨论这个问题。我不认为经销商会消失，但我认为市场会受到显著影响。整个市场将如何受到影响呢？
You're going to, I think you could see, we know there's going to be an impact on service operations. Now, do I think it's going to happen over in five years? No, I don't because you have right now 283 almost 300 vehicles, usually vehicles that aren't even that are on the road today. There's there's enough market out there on the service side for dealers to capture if they got serious. But again, it's going to impact. Here's what I think some of the impact is going to be. Let's first of all, EVs. I think it's changed some of the way we own our concepts of ownership. There's a lot of you written about this. And you've talked a lot about the vehicle subscription. You had Scott painter on a while ago. I'm not a I love the concept. I'm skeptical of it because we had a first round of it at one point.
在我看来，你将会看到，我们知道服务运营将会受到影响。现在，我认为这不会在五年内发生，因为你们现在拥有近300辆车辆，通常不会有这么多车辆在路上。服务领域市场足够大，如果经销商认真对待的话，就会有机会抓住。但是，这肯定会有影响。以下是我认为会带来的一些影响。首先，是电动车。它改变了我们对所有权的概念。这方面有很多关于它的文章和讨论。你之前采访过斯科特·佩恩特。我对这个概念很喜欢，但对它表示怀疑，因为我们曾经有过一轮类似的尝试。
You know, a few years ago that failed flanged out miserably, including one of Scott's earlier company's fair. Our nation just now launched its micro leasing our nation mobility in two states this year last week. But when you have an EV, it's really going to become a question of the evaluations and trying to paint a picture here. If EVs become the dominant vehicle, it's going to up and everything we know about vehicle valuations that whole that whole world's going to be up. I know banks and lenders are looking very hard at it, trying to figure out how that happens, what that's going to look like a few years out. But but is that really an issue? Like, isn't that already the case? I mean, we're already selling, you know, tons of EVs. Now we're not.
你知道的，几年前的那次失败慘不忍睹，包括斯科特早期公司的慘敗。我们国家刚刚在上周启动了国家移动的小型租赁项目，并在两个州进行了试点。但是，如果你拥有电动车，这真的会成为评估的问题，我们要试图描绘一幅图景。如果电动车成为主导车辆，那么所有有关车辆估值的知识将会被颠覆。我知道银行和贷款机构正在密切关注并努力弄清楚它是如何发生的，未来几年会呈现怎样的形势。但是，这真的是一个问题吗？我是说，这不已经是现状了吗？我是说，我们已经在销售大量的电动车了，现在我们不是吗？
No, we're we're wet. I mean, there's there's yeah, you have the tassels out there. There's not a ton of others. It's Tesla and, you know, everyone else combined right now. We don't have enough yet to determine to see where we're still so very early in on this whole EV dynamic number one. Number two, there's a lot going on on the battery side in terms of development. It could be all the batteries that are on the road today, obsolete. You know, that's a big question mark. I think you could see a world in which battery that, you know, it's separate to the devaluation of the battery is separate from the actual vehicle. I don't know. I mean, there's there's a lot of different scenarios being kicked around, but I do think it's up and I think that's an interesting one. I've heard that one for.
不，我们是湿的。我的意思是，确实，有托边带出去。除了特斯拉和其他一些公司外，没有太多其他选项。我们还没有足够的数据来确定我们现在处于电动汽车领域的哪个阶段。此外，在电池方面有很多发展正在进行。今天上路的电池可能会过时。这是一个很大的问号。我认为您可能会看到一个世界，其中电池不同于实际车辆的折旧。我不确定。有很多不同的情景被提出来，但我认为这是个有趣的问题。我听说过这个问题。
Yeah, I mean, while the battery is going to become the battery helps and we don't have enough data on on that. And I think it's going to be manufactured by manufacturer. And then let's say the EVs don't play out. Let's say it becomes it's where it is today and no more. Well, these oh, yeah, I have made huge investments. They're going to eat a lot of those costs and it's going to be painful for a little bit. I mean, they'll don't manage because I think. I mean, one could say they're already eating tons of costs like on the four side. They are right now, but let's say that none of this plays out. It pans out. Let's say that all that money that they've invested goes to waste because the customer doesn't want to buy. You know, what happens to their value in terms of Wall Street and putting, I would say, other than EVs, I mean, you mentioned these hurricanes.
是的，我的意思是，尽管电池将成为电池助力器，但我们对此并没有足够的数据。我认为它将由制造商生产。假设电动汽车发展不如预期，假设它仍停留在今天的水平上，不再有更多发展。好吧，这些，是的，我已经做出了巨额投资。他们将承担大量成本，这将是一段痛苦的时期。我的意思是，他们会应对得不错，因为我这么认为。我是说，可以说他们已经在“四大”方面吃了很多成本，但假设这一切都不成功。我说的是他们已经投资的所有资金都白白浪费，因为消费者不愿购买。你知道的，从华尔街的角度来看，他们的价值会发生什么变化，除了电动汽车之外，我是说，你提到了这些飓风。
Like you think what else is on the horizon from what you're seeing? Like what other big things are out there? Well, you have the software defined vehicle, which if manufacturers are able to get their data structures in place. And when I say that most of the manufacturers are, you know, their data structures are silent, incredibly siloed. It's just very hard to merge all that together. But hey, let's take a connected vehicle. And I've talked about this at conferences numerous times, but you know, down the road, you could have, let's say the connected vehicle is all of the systems are able to talk to each other. And that data is able to be aggregated into a cloud-based connected vehicle platform.
你以为未来还有什么其他值得期待的东西？比如说还有什么其他重大的事情？嗯，有一种被定义为软件驱动的汽车，如果制造商能够建立起他们的数据结构。当我说制造商的数据结构时，大多数制造商的数据结构都是相对封闭的，非常难以整合在一起。但是，嘿，让我们来看一下互联汽车。我在多次会议上都谈到过这个问题，但是你知道，在未来，你可以拥有一辆互联汽车，所有系统都能够相互通信，并且这些数据能够聚合到基于云的互联汽车平台上。
So take forward, for example, they could have, they could be grabbing data from all of the vehicles that they have on the road, from all the various systems, the braking systems, the engine systems, you know, whatever, tell them, whatever. And it's being fed into a, you know, a platform, a data platform. So they have all that. They'll have all the customer data, they'll have all the vehicle data. And what do they do with that? And what does that do? You know, to dealership level today, the dealers have that data, control that data. Well, at some point, I see the manufacturers controlling that data, because they'll have access at the, and have data that they've never had before. How does that change the game a little bit? You know, I think, you know, if Polly Annis for you would be, you know, manufacturer has, has figured out a way to take that data.
那么举个例子来说，他们可以从他们在道路上所有的车辆中获取数据，可以从各种系统中获取数据，例如制动系统、发动机系统，总之就是他们要什么数据就有什么数据。这些数据会被输入到一个平台，也就是一个数据平台上。所以他们拥有了这一切。他们会拥有所有的客户数据，也会拥有所有的车辆数据。那么他们会怎么处理这些数据呢？这会产生什么影响呢？就目前来说，经销商掌握并控制着这些数据。但在某一点上，我认为制造商会掌控这些数据，因为他们将获得以前从未拥有过的数据和访问权限。这会稍微改变游戏规则。如果我对你太过乐观的话，就是制造商已经找到了一种方式来利用这些数据。
The vehicle is able to talk to the customer. I said, I'm in my Ford F1 15. It says, you know, I get in one day and this is a cliff verbally. It's using, you know, whatever the AI, large language model, whatever it is. And it says cliff, we're going to need new fraud breaks in the bottom up to the half. ABC Motors has a slot open on Wednesday at 5 30, which like said, an appointment. By the way, you know, it knows that I prefer a loaner vehicle. So it'll have the loaner vehicle and the type of loaner vehicle that I want. They're waiting for me. Or depending on the pay, you could sell any kind of VIP, platinum package. And you know, the dealer comes out and gets the vehicle for, you know, for me and drops it back off or comes out to my office and fixes it. You know, I mean, there's, there's all kinds of scenarios there. But the point is, if, if that connected vehicle platform is able to tie it all together, the retailers, the vehicle, the manufacturer, the supplier, the shipper, all of that. And it's able to leverage AI and predictive models and tell me that those were my breaks are going to go or when I'm going to need you breaks. What, I mean, that's a wild customer experience. That's incredible. That's what I would.
该车辆能够与客户对话。我说，我在开我的福特F1 15。它说，你知道的，有一天我上车，这是个语言上的悬崖。它使用了人工智能、大型语言模型等。它说，悬崖，我们需要更换底盘上半部分的新刹车。ABC汽车在周三的5点30有一个空位，像我说的那样，预约了一个时间。顺便说一句，它知道我更喜欢临时车辆。所以它会有我想要的临时车辆和型号等待我。或者根据支付情况，你可以销售任何一种VIP、白金包。你知道，这个经销商会把车开出来，为我修好后再送回来，或者到我的办公室来修理。我的意思是，有各种各样的情景。但重点是，如果这个连网车载平台能够把它们全部联系在一起，包括零售商、车辆、制造商、供应商和承运商，它能够利用人工智能和预测模型告诉我什么时候我需要更换刹车。那我怎么说，这是一种非常棒的客户体验。太不可思议了。这就是我想要的。
So who captures the value there? Like, is there a world for start? I don't know. That's the, that's the kind of, so I mean, you know, I mean, do the, exactly. Do the OEMs, the car manufacturers capture the value or can start up, so you know, build these types of things and, you know, they get acquired or they build into it. Well, look, yeah, we're seeing, you know, we've seen a startup tech behind, which is a DMS startup out of California. And they're making a play to be the one that ties all of this together for the, especially on the dealership side. You know, CDK has, you know, a platform that they've been building and counting. I think the manufacturer stands to gain the most here. Really? But again, it has to, but yeah, I mean, because I'll have the data and they'll be able to communicate with the customers in a way that no one is able to communicate and is via through the vehicle. Look, we're seeing elements of this already, but I'm talking now whole perspective that I just painted. I mean, I think that's still a ways out because you have to, there's a lot that has to be done. But we're getting there in steps. But what does that world look like? Ultimately, I don't know.
那么谁能获得价值呢？比如说，有没有一个起点呢？我不知道。这就是，这就是我说的，我是说，原厂汽车制造商能否获得价值，或者初创公司能通过构建这些东西并被收购或融资来获得价值。嗯，看吧，是的，我们看到了一个科技初创公司，总部在加利福尼亚州，名为DMS，他们正在努力将所有这些联系在一起，特别是在经销商方面。你知道，CDK也有一个他们一直在构建和计算的平台。我想汽车制造商在这里可能获益最多。真的吗？但是再说一次，这取决于，是的，因为他们将拥有数据，并且能够以一种无人能及的方式与客户进行通信，通过车辆。看吧，我们已经看到了一些这方面的迹象，但是现在我所讲的是我描绘的整体视角。我认为这还有一段时间，因为还有很多工作要做。但我们正在逐步实现。但那个世界会是什么样子呢？最终，我不知道。
I mean, but that does change the whole tech landscape, I think, at the dealership level. It changes how dealerships communicate, what communicate with their customers. It's going to require a much more collaborative approach between dealers and manufacturers. And again, I don't know that we get there because of the, you know, 100 years of history of dealer-manufactured relationships that are, you know, that have been fraught with distrust and, you know, I think well-earned animosity, you know, even from both sides. So I feel like there's an opportunity here.
我的意思是，但这确实改变了整个科技景观，我认为，在经销商层面上。它改变了经销商如何沟通，以及他们与客户的沟通方式。这将需要经销商和制造商之间更加协作的方法。而且，由于经销商和制造商之间100年的历史充满了争议和相互猜疑，我不知道我们能否达到这个目标，即使两方都对此感到不满。因此，我觉得这里有一个机会。
I just had someone in the pod recently, a guy named John Hayes, he's building a company called Ghost Autonomy, and they're sort of looking to create this almost like self-driving that can be equipped to any manufacturer or, you know, licensed to any manufacturer. So it makes me think that like there's an opportunity, like every manufacturer is going to try to do what you're saying for their own vehicle, for their own line. But it makes me think that, you know, is there an opportunity to build this like one universal platform that you can hook on to any car and get that level of personalization and integration? I know that, you know, I also had a full-path CEO, our own on the pod. Yes. And he spoke about, you know, AI and working on do that for the sales process. But this seems like this falls more on the ownership side of things.
我最近在节目中有一个人，名叫约翰·海斯，他正在创办一家名为Ghost Autonomy的公司，他们试图创建一种几乎可以装备在任何制造商的车辆上的自动驾驶系统，或者说可以向任何制造商获得授权。这让我想到，每个制造商都将尝试为他们自己的车辆、自己的产品线做你所说的事情，所以是否有机会构建一种通用平台，可以连接到任何车辆上，实现那种个性化和整合水平的智能化？我知道，我也在节目中采访过一位全路径公司的首席执行官。是的，他谈到了人工智能和致力于使销售流程变得智能化，但这个似乎更多地涉及到车辆拥有权的方面。
Yeah. Yeah. I think it changes the whole ownership. And this is maybe at some point you have these, you know, the Scott Painters of the world, which end up being correct in a few years that the whole idea of ownership changes and becomes less of a, you know, my vehicle versus, you know, short term lease or a, you know, share. How we listen to do you think that is? Do you think that's not a goal? I don't think it's real. No, I don't think it's viable at all because the psyche of the American consumer. The psyche of the American.
是的。是的。我认为这改变了整个所有权的概念。也许在某个时候，你会发现像斯科特·佩恩特这样的人在几年后证明了整个所有权观念的改变，变得不再是像我的车这样的，而是短期租赁或者共享。你认为这种观念的接受程度如何？你觉得这不是一个目标吗？我觉得这不是真实的。不，我认为这完全不可行，因为美国消费者的心理观念不同。美国人的心理观念不同。
That's the American consumer. Well, think about this. You know, you got a car in your garage, right? Yeah. And I mean, you're in my state of life, I mean, I don't have car seats anymore, but do I want to keep changing car seats out? You know, I'd love these analysts that would, and a future is that we talk about the vehicle being used only for 5% of the time and being parked the rest of the time. Why do you want that? My argument is, vehicles in my garage, that vehicle's in use, even if it's not, even if the wheels are loose. It's got my golf clubs, lawn chairs in the back. It's got the car seat. It's holding my trash today. It was too lazy to take out of, you know, the vehicle last night. It's in use. Now, if I'm having to share a vehicle, you know, in rely on autonomous coming to pick me up all the time and I'm giving up ownership, we don't have that. The American consumer.
这就是美国消费者。想想看，你的车车停在车库里，是吧？是的。我的意思是，在我这个生活阶段，我不再需要汽车座椅，但难道我想一直不停地更换汽车座椅吗？我喜欢这些所谓的分析师，他们说未来的趋势是汽车仅使用时间的5%，其余时间都被停放着。为什么要这样呢？我的观点是，我车库里的车，即使不开，即使车轮松动，它还是在使用中。它装着我的高尔夫球包，折叠椅子，还有汽车座椅。今天它在帮我装垃圾，因为我昨晚懒得把垃圾带出去。它一直在使用。现在，如果我得公共共享车辆，依赖自动驾驶来接送我，而且要放弃车辆的所有权，我们美国消费者是无法接受这样的。
Well, it seems like it's a convenience and luxury thing. And the reason I even use that word luxury for car ownership is because I spoke about the average new average payment on a new car nowadays is a close to $750. And you know, add insurance on top of that, you know, you're over $1,000 a month. Is that sustainable though, right? Like, are people are going to have, like, what everything you're saying is definitely ideal. Like, I love that as well, right? Car seats are in the car. I'm not going to, you know, it takes me 20 minutes to install those damn car seats. But I can't imagine you to move it down and let alone getting some other car seat that some other, you know, kid used that's probably dirty. My wife is not going to want to put a baby in that. So I can only, I can only imagine these like five, 10 steps. But with that said, it's not going to turn into a luxury. Like, will people have no choice where it's just like, hey, new cars are just so unaffordable. Like, I have to subscribe. And it's the more affordable option. And then boom, 30% of the population is subscribing. Right.
嗯，看起来这是一种便利和奢华的事情。我之所以用"奢华"这个词来形容拥有汽车是因为我谈到了现在新车的平均月供接近750美元。你知道，再加上保险，你每个月就得付1000美元以上。然而，这种情况可持续吗？就像你说的，所有你提到的都是理想的。我也喜欢这样的想法，车座就在车里。我不想要费二十分钟的时间安装那些该死的车座。更别提给孩子弄一个曾经被其他孩子用过且可能脏的车座了。我妻子是不会愿意把孩子放进去的。所以我只能想象这是一个非常复杂的过程。但是，这种情况不会变成一种奢侈品。人们会没有选择，因为新车太贵了，只能选择订阅。这是一种更经济实惠的选择，然后一下子就有30%的人口选择订阅了，对吗？
Look, I'll go back to what I was living in Philadelphia. And the lady eating in the house, a teen late, you know, late teenager, late 80s, early 90s, and through 1990. And I didn't, I took public transportation. I jumped on stuff that I jumped on the subway, a broad street line. Every night, it's like 26 bus down rising Sunday Avenue. You know, so I was, you know, I, I was living that life in 1987, 88, 89, 90. So I didn't need a car. And once, and I was 20, I think just turned 20 when I bought my first car.
听着，我会回到我在费城的生活。那时候我住在一个房子里，一个十几岁的女孩那样的年纪，晚八九十年代，一直到1990年。我并没有买车，我坐公共交通。我乘地铁，坐着广街线。每天晚上，我会坐26路公交车经过Sunday大道。所以1987年到1990年期间，我过着那种生活。所以我并不需要一辆车。直到我20岁的时候，才买了我的第一辆车。
Listen, I think historically, five years ago, we'll go back five years and cars are what 35. But if you went back 20, 30 years, it would have been unsathomable that we would have been paying 35,000, 40,000 car. Right. Right. So society has a way of adjusting to costs.
听着，我觉得从历史的角度来看，五年前的汽车是35,000美元。但是如果回到20、30年前，我们难以想象我们会花费35,000到40,000美元去买一辆车。对吧，对吧。所以社会有一种适应成本的方式。
Well, wages have risen as well. Yeah. You know, not necessarily at the same pace, but, you know, correct. But I think that that we would likely see a similar dynamic. People are going to hold on to their old cars. We're seeing that. I mean, you use car ages, you know, significantly older than what it was even 10 years ago.
嗯，工资也有上涨。是的，你知道的，虽然不一定以同样的速度，但是没错。但我认为我们可能会看到类似的情况。人们会继续使用旧车，我们正在看到这一点。我的意思是，你知道，现在使用的二手车的年龄比10年前显著增长。
So we're seeing, like, I've got it, you know, in my driveway right now, I got a 2007 for fusion with 212,000 miles. You know, it's one of our vehicles. We got, you know, a few, but that's one of the one of our vehicles. And I just become a joke, a running joke with me now that I'm trying to, I'm going to try and keep that going as long as I get. So I'll put money to it just as a see how far I keep that going. But, you know, I, you know, so I go, you know, I can make a case. It's already pretty impressive. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, I see, you may see more that, but we were still up until the pandemic. We were selling 55 about 65 million vehicles a year at the dealership. Both for each eyes and independent use. That's new and use cars. 55. That was the typical year. I think we'll get back to that at some point.
所以我们看到，就像我现在就停在我的车道上一样，我有一辆2007年的Fusion，里程为21.2万英里。你知道，这是我们的一辆车之一。我们有几辆，但这是其中之一。现在它只是成了一个笑话，对我来说就像一个笑话，我会尽量让它继续下去。所以我会把钱投进去，只是为了看看它能走多远。但你知道，我可以说它已经相当耐用了。是的。是的。所以，你知道，我看到你可能会看到更多的这种情况，但在疫情之前，我们每年在车行销售的新车和二手车达到了5500到6500万辆。那是典型的年销量。我认为我们最终会恢复到那个水平。
What are we at now? Boy, what are we going to hit? 15 million this year? I'm getting old, so my memory's off. I think we're all pasted 15 million new cars. New only. Yeah. New only, new only. And I said, I think I wrote on one of your tweet, Twitter threads. I think I wrote that, uh, we'll get 16, well, it's 16 million and 24. And, you know, maybe 17 million back by 25. I don't know. I mean, I'm, I was being somewhat tongue-in-cheeked there, but I think it's, it's entirely possible.
我们现在是什么情况？伙计，我们要达到什么水平？今年达到1500万辆？我年纪大了，记性不好。我记得我们都已经超过了1500万辆新车。只有新车。对，只有新车，只有新车。而且我记得我在你的推特对话中写过，我想我写了，我们会在2024年达到1600万，也许到2025年会回到1700万。我不知道，我当时有点夹带讽刺的意思，但我认为这完全有可能。
And what about used? What do we on track for used right now? Boy, that's a, I haven't looked at the numbers as lately, but, uh, but, you know, given, like I said, in the giving year, you know, you're looking at, uh, 15, 16, I think on the maybe 14 to 15 on the new car franchise side, in terms of being sold out of new car dealerships, the rest being sold out of used car, independent use car dealerships. So that's a lot of vehicles. And they're still so penned, there's still a lot of pen of demand. But we're not seeing that demand dissipate right now on the new car site. I mean, you had Johnson's smoke on a few weeks ago, uh, from Cox to Cox, uh, economist. Um, I don't know.
关于二手车呢？目前对于二手车市场，我们的情况如何？嗯，我最近没有看过具体的数据，但是，你知道，在过去的一年里，新车特许经销商的销售量大约在14到15万辆左右，剩下的销售量则来自独立的二手车经销商。所以这是很多车辆。而且它们仍然有很高的需求。但是我们现在没有看到新车市场的需求减弱。我的意思是，你们几周前采访了考克斯的经济学家约翰逊·斯莫克。我不清楚。
I think, uh, I, you know, I'll tell you, I, I, some of it is colored by, you know, when we came out of the recession in 2009, 2010, 2011, and we thought it's going to take forever to get back to that 16 million unit level. And it, in no time we were hitting 17 million new car sales. So we were granted different dynamics today, but, uh, am I more Pollyanna or Rosie in my forecast? I, yeah, maybe, but some of that is because we've seen this a lot of this before. None of this is new. Maybe the increased, you know, the explosion in new car prices, but I would say some of that is based on, you know, it's out of whack because the electric vehicles and we've had so many of these new car vehicles, you know, priced above MSRP because of that, because there hasn't been the supply supply is going to come back to a rather normal level. And then we're already seeing these prices come down. So I think someone is going to write itself in.
我想，呃，我，你知道，我告诉你，我，我，其中一部分受到，你知道的，当我们在2009年、2010年、2011年的经济衰退后复苏的影响，我们觉得要恢复到每年1600万辆的水平会需要很长时间。但是，我们很快就达到了每年1700万辆的新车销量。所以我们今天所面临的情况是不同的动力，但是，我的预测是乐观还是悲观呢？也许是乐观吧，但其中一部分原因是因为我们之前见过这种情况很多次。这些都不是新鲜事。也许新车价格上涨得更多了吧，但我想说的是，其中一部分原因是由于电动汽车的出现，以及有很多新车售价高于建议零售价的情况，因为供应不足。供应将恢复到相对正常的水平，我们已经看到这些价格开始下降。所以我认为局势将会好转。
You mentioned supply, you know, publicly traded autogrut are near all time highs or stocks. Yeah. What do you think happens here next with these groups? Well, I can tell you over the last 10 years, it's been in ebb and flow up and down. Okay. However, the ups always end up being greater than the downs, which is why we are seeing consistently them hitting their highest prices. You know, the share prices are hitting their highest levels for the most part. I mean, does that trend continue? Certainly appears. I mean, it, you know, that income is coming down. I think the what we've seen in the last of most recent earnings are out for second quarter. The net income has has decreased across the board, but correct revenues are up. I think sales are up. They've hit record record quarters and they keep seeing records on that level. So, you know, even if even with that income coming down, it's still way above pre-pandemic levels. So can they maintain that? Probably not. But, you know, stock prices, one, only one metric to look at. I mean, you have to look at the total return.
你提到了供应，你知道，公开交易的汽车供应商的股票价格接近历史高点。是的。你认为接下来这些公司会发生什么？嗯，我可以告诉你，在过去的10年里，它一直在波动之中，时而上涨时而下跌。不过，上涨总是比下跌更大，这就是为什么我们看到它们的股价不断创新高。你知道，股价大部分时间都达到了最高水平。这种趋势会继续吗？看起来是这样。我是说，收入正在下降。我认为最近季度财报已经公布了。所有公司的净收入都减少了，但是正确的收入增长了。我认为销售额也增长了。他们连续刷新季度纪录，并且在这个层面上不断突破记录。所以，即使收入下降，它仍然远高于疫情前的水平。他们能维持这种状况吗？可能不能。但是，股票价格只是衡量的一个指标。你必须看整体回报率。
What do you look at? When you look through these SEC reports, what do you really focus on? What the trend levels are? And I try to not look at it so much recorded a quarter, but more year over year. You know, you look for any massive red flags. And it's interesting. We talked to you mentioned Sonic with the Echo part. There were some, there were some red flags going back over a year just in terms of the profitability and the fact that they weren't the Echo part stores weren't exactly profitable. And you're wondering how much longer to connect to one. And weren't the Echo part stores at Sonic? Were they doing like front end on the, the profit on the car was like $500 or something? That 300 bucks. Yeah, it was pretty small.
你看什么？当你浏览这些SEC报告时，你真正关注什么？趋势水平是什么？我尽量不太关注每个季度的具体记录，而是更注重年度的比较。你知道的，你会寻找任何重大的红旗。有趣的是，我们刚才谈到了Echo部分的Sonic。在过去一年中，盈利能力和Echo部分门店的盈利情况存在一些潜在问题。你可能会想知道还要多久才能持续连接到其中一个。而Sonic的Echo部分门店，他们在汽车的前端利润可能只有500美元左右，或者更少一些吗？是的，利润很微薄。
Yeah. And I don't think they were. I mean, I looked at it prior to the second or I, you know, it was, we're going back three, four weeks and I wish I'd written down or head in front of me, actually. But you just go back to the car. I just remember thinking, as I listened to those earnings calls each year, each quarter, you know, look, they're going to have to do something with that apart. And I think Sonic's done a great job. But boy, I'll tell you this, it's, it's funny watching, tracking these companies. And you just see some of the differences in mindset and strategy. You know, AutoNation has reduced its share, value, number of shares by almost a harp, I mean, you know, they've been very aggressive at buying back shares. Lithy on the other hand has been very aggressive on the on the acquisition side. So two different, completely two different strategies, both, you know, we're trying to do different things, go outside the typical free H.I. Stiehler model and start adding things, you know, AutoNation bought repair power, they bought bank, even once AutoNation super stores, which again is a resurrection of what they were doing prior to the late 90s when my jack-sales named CEO. And he were a group of used car super stores and he immediately got rid of them. Well, now they come back and restarted that. We'll see how long that stays in play. Certainly, if you're looking at Echo Park, you're thinking, yeah, maybe this massive use car play that these dealers try occasionally are not just, they just don't end up not penciling because they they've never seem to be sustainable. We've seen this time and time again.
是的。我不认为他们真的成功了。我的意思是，我在第二次或者在之前就看过了，我们回顾了三四个星期，我真希望我当时能记下来或者现在能够把它放在眼前。但是你可以回到车上去。我只记得当我听每年每季度的财报电话时，我就在想，他们必须有所作为。我认为索尼克做得很出色。但是，我告诉你，这真的很有趣，追踪这些公司。你只会看到一些思维和策略上的差异。汽车国际已经通过回购股份大幅减少了股份数量，我是说，你知道的，他们一直非常积极地回购股份。而丽岗则在收购方面非常积极。所以两种完全不同的策略，都试图超出典型的自由经纪人模式，开始增加一些东西，汽车国际购买了修理电源，他们还购买了银行，甚至还购买了汽车超级商店，这实际上是个在90年代末由我的前任CEO经营的二手车超级商店，然后他立即将其关闭。现在他们又重新开办了。我们会看看这个能维持多久。当然，如果你看看Echo Park，你会想，也许这些经销商偶尔尝试的大规模二手车交易实际上是行不通的，它们似乎从来都没有可持续性。我们已经一次又一次地见识到了这一点。
So, but and then you take a group one, which is fascinating to me because as a group, because they are solely focused on selling and servicing vehicles in their local market areas. They are not at all interested in shipping vehicles across the country nationally at a different market. That's part of super profitable. Exactly. It's a phenomenal, I mean, and it's just a nuts and bolts. It's just a basic boring business model, but you look at their profitability, you look at them as a company and it's it's hard to argue with, right? You know, and then obviously Lithius had the stock price that's been as high as 400 at what point now it's back down there. Group one, ironically, passed it earlier this year for maybe a week or two. Yeah. And Lithius regained the crap, but that was the first time in years that that someone other than Lithius held that crown. I'm bullish. I'm bullish on, I think they all bring something to the table. So, before we wrap up, I want to ask you, I want to talk about a bit of a different topic, which is just automotive media.
所以，你来看一下一个集团，这对我来说很有吸引力，因为作为一个集团，他们完全专注于在他们的本地市场销售和维修汽车。他们对于在不同的国家市场上运送汽车没有丝毫兴趣。这也是他们的巨额利润的一部分。完全正确。这是一个了不起的现象，我指的是，它只是一个基本的、无聊的商业模式，但是你看看他们的盈利能力，看看他们作为一个公司的情况，很难争辩不过去，对吧？你知道的，显而易见地Lithius的股价曾经一度高达400，现在又回到了那个水平。Group one在今年早些时候反而超过他们了，或许只持续了一两个星期。是的。然后Lithius重新恢复了领先地位，但那是多年以来第一次有人超过Lithius。我看好它们。我对它们都持乐观态度，我认为它们都有自己的优势。所以，在我们结束之前，我想问你一个有点不同的话题，那就是汽车媒体。
Yes. How do you think automotive media is going to continue evolving? It just seems like, and I'll say my opinion is first, I want to hear from you. Yeah. But it seems like, we're sort of ushering in this new generation of automotive leaders, whether it be new management, you know, Gen Z, you know, getting into the industry, whatever it may be, it just seems like media is being consumed differently. I'm really curious to hear from you though, automotive media, you've been in for decades. How do you think it's going to change and evolve over the next five to 10 years? Well, I've lived through some of those changes, so I'm painful, so I'm not.
是的。您认为汽车媒体将如何继续发展？我想先说一下我的观点，但我更想听听您的意见。没错，但似乎我们正在迎来一代新的汽车领导者，无论是新的管理层，还是属于Z世代的人们进入这个行业，无论是什么原因，媒体的消费方式似乎正在发生改变。但我非常好奇听听您对汽车媒体的看法，毕竟您在这个行业已经有几十年了。您认为在未来的五到十年里，它会如何变化和发展呢？我经历过其中的一些变化，所以深有体会。
That's a great question. That is a great question. Look, I live, I don't live in the world of the consumer media. So, I don't really put the consumer aside. Don't even worry about that. Yeah. So, automotive is fascinating. When you look at the landscape of media properties, he has a big one, it's automotive news. Word says a different audience somewhat, but he's still our competitive with automotive news. It's a different model today. Then we have all of these that you've got all the dealer publications that are still out there, auto remarketing, dealer success, dealer marketing, auto dealer today. It's hard to, and much of that is focused on best practices, helping dealers manage their businesses and managers and executives manage their businesses. So, you have that whole element, and I don't play it all in that world. I just, I don't have the knowledge to talk about best practices in the dealership world. I leave that to people that are in the dealership and the vendors who are helping dealers in the two.
这是个很棒的问题。这是个很棒的问题。看，我生活在一个不参与消费媒体世界的圈子里。所以，我并不是把用户放在一边的。你不需要担心这个。 是的。所以，汽车行业非常有趣。当你看到媒体机构的格局时，他拥有一家大公司，那就是汽车新闻。我听说他们的受众略有不同，但他们与汽车新闻仍然是竞争对手。这是一个不同的模式。然后我们还有很多其他的出版物，比如汽车再营销、经销商成功、经销商营销、汽车经销商今天等等。很难，大部分都是关注最佳实践，帮助经销商管理他们的业务，帮助经理和高管管理他们的业务。所以，你有了这一整个范围，而我并不在这个世界里。我没有足够的知识来谈论经销商世界的最佳实践。我把这些都留给在经销商中工作的人以及帮助他们的供应商。
So, I tend to be more, now, more big picture focus than even under the radar focused. But, so, I think, you know, in, look, I have a conference, I think that's part of the whole media set. You have multiple numerous conferences out there, and everyone's allowed some little complaint about the number of conferences. And my response is, look, as many as the market can bear, if you don't want to go to a car, you don't go to a conference, don't know why I complain about it, just don't go. I mean, you know, as long as the sponsors are willing to step up and help put that bill of people willing to buy their plane ticket and show up, you know, and I think it's everyone's trying to find where that sweet spot is. I think I've carved a niche, and which works and we may see a car dealership backcon for 2020. I'm sure we will. I'd be shocked if we didn't. If you're listening to the pod and you have a conference experience, you know, to contact. I'm waiting for your DM. Yeah, we, you know, we have ours in December in Scottsdale, and it's not, you know, seamless plug here, I guess. But, you know, we're just, we're very, I'm not intent on growing those numbers exponentially. You know, we're at 200. This will be our seventh year, and it's been the hundred and fifty that, you know, we had our record attendance last year, and probably hit the 250 to 300 mark this year. But I don't want it. I, it's a very exclusive, spent a lot of money, spent a lot of money on that event, a lot of money. So it's a different, it's a little bit different than some of the other events in terms of what the focus is. It's not best practice focus. It's more investor in the investment focus, I think.
所以，我倾向于更加着眼于大局，比以往更少关注底层细节。但是，我认为，在我看来，这是整个媒体圈子的一部分。市场上有许多会议，每个人都可以对会议数量提出一些抱怨。我的回应是，只要市场上能接受，你不想去参加就不要去，我不知道为什么还要抱怨。只要赞助商愿意提供支持，帮助支付人们的机票费用并出席会议，我认为每个人都在努力找到那个合适的平衡点。我认为我已经找到了一个适合我的独特领域，并且我们可能会在2020年看到汽车经销商协会的回归。如果你正在听这个播客并且有会议经验，请与我联系，我在等待您的私信。是的，我们的会议在12月份在斯科茨代尔举行，这里可能有一点宣传的嫌疑。但是，我们并不追求大幅度增长参与人数的目标。我们目前有200人参加，今年是第七年，去年参会人数达到了150人的峰值，今年可能会达到250到300人。但我不希望它变得无所不包，我们在这个活动上投入了很多钱，真的是很多钱。所以它与其他一些活动有所不同，着重点不在于最佳实践，而更多的是投资者和投资方向。
But in terms of where the media, where media is going, well, why this conversation with our people recently? You know, we're talking about social media channels, and I have no interest whatsoever in TikTok, Instagram. I found out I had an Instagram account. I had no idea how I have an Instagram account. I had never set it up. Someone told me it was through Facebook. That's how ignorant I am. I'm on LinkedIn and Twitter. I have a Facebook account, but I've done much. I use it just for Intel. But, but I know there's a huge number of, you're the all, all steak and those little, but right, right. Yeah, I've been accused of having very little sizzle. No, I'm saying that. I'm saying that like jokingly because you just keep it real. Yeah. Yeah. I try. Well, look, I get a different issue myself. So I can keep up with guys like you. Honestly, I can't. You come into this and have grown exponentially. You've exploded onto the sea and your content is your content is sound. Your content is you have a knack for generating responses and getting people engaged. And that is phenomenal. I mean, it's been fun to watch.
但是就媒体的发展方向而言，我最近和我们的人谈了这个话题，你知道，我们在谈论社交媒体渠道，而我对TikTok和Instagram完全没有兴趣。我刚刚发现我有一个Instagram账号，我完全不知道我是怎么有这个账号的。我从来没有设置过它。有人告诉我是通过Facebook的。这就是我对此的无知。我在LinkedIn和Twitter上有账号，我也有一个Facebook账号，但我用得不多，只是用来获取一些情报。但是，我知道有很多人，你们是那些有才华又有创意的人，而我就像那块没有什么特色的牛排。不是这个意思，我是开玩笑的，因为你一直很真实。是的。是的，我尽力了。看，我自己也有不同的问题，所以我跟你们这样的大牛们保持联系很困难。坦率地说，我跟不上你们的发展速度。你进入这个行业后取得了指数级的增长。你的内容很不错。你擅长引起回应并让人们参与其中。这太棒了。我很享受观察你的成长过程。
Yeah. Look, you know, I think a couple of things. Number one, it took about a year of yeah, daily, daily tweeting before I started like, you know, growing. Well, anyway, it took me like a year before it was around December, January of 20, what are you, what are we not 23 years? Yeah, I was around the end of 22 when I say it's really started rising. What people don't know is it's it's nonstop. Like it's it's a type of thing where, you know, I'm in the bathroom, I'm eating on my phone. It's it's so accessible, but you're always trying to fill in those like dead five minutes because it's a full time job. Yes. Just takes a lot of work.
是的。看，你知道的，我想有几件事情。第一，大约花了一年的时间，每天每天的推特之后，我开始有所成长。嗯，无论如何，在大约2020年12月或者2023年1月的时候，我开始真正崛起。人们不知道的是，这是一个不间断的过程。就像无论何时，我在厕所里，或者在吃饭的时候都会拿起手机。它是如此方便，但你总是在试图填补那些最后的五分钟，因为这是一份全职工作。是的，这需要很多工作。
Now that said, I'm definitely a student of the media, media space, meaning I love to just, you know, try new things, new formats, new writing styles, and just to see how people react. I try to keep things super, super balanced. It's really tough though, because you're always upsetting someone. You say one thing the consumers get upset at you. Oh, you did. You say one of the dealers are upset at you. I'm not perfect either. You know, people people realize, you know, it's sometimes you're tweeting. I don't think I've scheduled a tweet in a while. Like, I don't even remember the last time I scheduled a tweet. I do have drafts. Like I do I will have a draft and I'll just like, you know, go in and post it. But pre scheduling, I stopped doing that a couple months ago, just because I enjoy more like raw organic, you know, kind of, Hey, like what's interesting to me right now? So yeah, it's it's definitely, you know, it's very, very intense. I think that's also a big part of what separates, you know, the the accounts that grow from those that don't. But also, you guys have to keep a well diversified, you know, a well diversified content. And to try to bring stuff that's actually interesting to people. And it's hard, you know, you're constantly looking for for interesting things. And you don't always have them. So I you see some days I go and I don't tweet or maybe I tweet once other days I'll tweet five times. But it's definitely fun and fulfilling. The podcast has taken it on your level and I really enjoy this to kind of sum all that up.
现在说了，我肯定是媒体的学生，媒体空间的学生，意味着我喜欢尝试新事物，新格式，新写作风格，并观察人们的反应。我尽量保持事情的平衡，但实际上很困难，因为你总会惹怒某些人。你说一句话，消费者就会对你生气。哦，你肯定会招来某些经销商的不满。我也不完美。人们意识到有时你在发推特时。我想已经有一段时间我没有预定一个推特了。我有草稿。我会有一个草稿，然后去发布。但是事先安排，我几个月前停止这样做，只是因为我更喜欢像原始的有机的，你懂的，嘿，现在对我来说有趣的东西。所以，是的，肯定有的，你知道，这是非常非常紧张的。我认为这也是区分那些成长的账户和不成长的账户的一个重要因素。而且，你们也必须保持多样化的内容，并尝试带来真正有趣的东西给人们。这很困难，你不总是有这样的东西。所以有些日子我不发推特，或者也许我只发一次，其他日子我会发五次。但是肯定是有趣而充实的。播客使它更上一个台阶，我非常喜欢这一切来总结。
I just think that it's a constant evolution of transparency. I think the level of transparency we're at now is, you know, first we had to transparency of like, you know, websites said prices and true car came. Right. And I just feel like now we're at a level of transparency where it's sharing the ins and outs of the industry. And frankly, you see the dealers that embrace it are doing well, especially the ones that follow me that are, you know, engaging with the audience that, you know, maybe I'll talk, maybe I'll speak about something interest rates, prices monthly, whatever inventory. And a dealer will come in and chime in and say, Oh, by the way, we just, you know, we just sold this or that or they'll just share an ad addict though from their experience. And then people in the comments like, Oh, hey, by the way, I'm looking for this type of car, right, I contact you. So you see real business happening. Yes. I mean, the comments, which is pretty remarkable. So I just think that we're, you know, I think things are going to continue getting more transparent. But I think it's going to benefit everyone because it's not, I just don't, I don't view it as a harmful transparency, meaning it's not, it's not about like, you know, I got you as or, you know, putting consumers down, putting dealers down. It's about just, Hey, let's keep it real. This is what the landscape looks like. This is how the business works. This is the reality of the current automotive landscape. And now you have the information go make your choices, go make your own decisions. Right.
我认为这是透明度的不断演进。我认为我们现在所处的透明度水平是，你知道，最初我们有了网站上标明的价格和TrueCar。对了。我只是觉得现在我们达到了一个透明度的水平，它分享了行业内幕。坦率地说，你会看到那些接受这种透明度的经销商表现得很好，尤其是那些关注我并与观众互动的经销商，也许我会谈论一些利率、价格、月供或库存方面的问题，然后经销商会加入讨论，说，“哦，顺便说一下，我们刚刚卖出了这个或那个”，或者他们会分享他们的经验故事。然后评论区的人会说，“哦，顺便说一下，我正在找这种类型的车，我联系你”。所以你会看到真正的业务正在发生。是的，评论区，这相当了不起。所以我只是认为我们，你知道，我觉得事情将继续变得更加透明。但我认为这将让每个人受益，因为这不是一种有害的透明度，意思是不是说你被骗了，也不是贬低消费者或经销商。这只是说，“嘿，让我们保持真实。这就是现实情况，这就是行业运作的方式，这就是当前汽车市场的现实。现在你有了信息，去做出你的选择，做出你自己的决定。”
Well, I think similarly, I mean, what you've done too, has been the even able to shine a light and provide use that word transparency. What I've noticed for you, on how the business actually works, in what's going on at the dealership level and what drives you know, some of what, you know, some of the behavior at the dealership level too. And I think that's great for the consumer to be able to see, to be able to see and understand, have a better understanding there. You know, I'll tell you, I lived through 2000s awards and we were gatekeepers. Our motor news, wards and then there were a couple of other magazines that popped up. I came out, but we were gatekeepers of the information. And that's been completely obliterated in terms of, you know, I think now social media is to my, completely democratized. I think that's been great. I think, but it's also been rough and challenging too, because there's a lot of people that don't really understand what they're out there talking about or saying.
嗯，我也这样认为，我的意思是，你所做的事情也能够照亮并提供透明度。我注意到你对业务的理解，对经销商层面的情况以及驱动一些行为的了解。我觉得这对于消费者来说是很好的，他们能够看到并理解更多。你知道，我告诉你，我经历过2000年的奖项，我们是信息的守门人。我们的汽车新闻奖以及还有一些其他的杂志出现了，但我们是信息的守门人。而现在这完全被摧毁了，我认为现在社交媒体是完全民主的。我认为这很棒。但同时也很艰难和具有挑战性，因为有很多人并不真正了解他们所说的。
You know, it's funny. I, you know, I'm on seeking alpha quite a bit. And it's just amazing. Some of the things that I see there then are, I think you, you bring up a good point about gatekeeping, because I feel like at this point, I, I can do in a day, it really depends on the day, but I can do like three million views per day impressions right now. And I think about that, like, it's just, it's incredible that this is all, you know, free, right? Like I build the audience. The audience is mine. Yeah or, you know, to sort of say it's the platforms, of course, but you know, I'm renting it for free. And the idea that you're right, like there's no gatekeeping with social media. If you're able to build a proper audience, you know, I think the other thing to note is just that the responsibility that comes with that. And I definitely, you know, as time is gone by, you know, you think more and more, like how everything you say actually impacts people.
你知道，有趣的是，我在seeking alpha上经常逛。而令人惊讶的是，我在那里看到的一些事情，我觉得你说得对，关于门户控制的问题，因为我感觉到现在我每天可以做到不同的程度，具体视每天而定，但我目前每天可以产生三百万的浏览量。当我想到这一点，我觉得这一切都是免费的，实在是太惊人了，你知道，我建立了受众群体。听起来像是自己的，对吧，或者说是平台的，但你知道，我免费租用了它们。你说得对，社交媒体没有门槛。如果你能够建立一个合适的观众群体，你要注意的另一件事就是你要承担的责任。随着时间的推移，我确实越来越多地意识到，你说的每一句话都会对人们产生影响。
And you realize the guy, people following up with me after months, like, Hey, I just bought a Buick because of your tweet. And like, I started laughing because, you know, I'm, you know, I'm sitting with a crying baby on one arm, drinking, drinking a soda on the other arm. And I'm like, Oh, by the way, let me talk about, you know, Buick, this is interesting. And you know, months later, I have people telling me that their family just got a great deal on a Buick because of my tweet. And it's just so crazy, the impact of social media nowadays. You know, you've evolved to you've grown significantly from when you first start, I think in terms of, I just in terms of being respond.
然后你意识到有人在几个月后跟进我，说，“嘿，因为你的推特，我刚买了一辆别克车。”我开始笑了，因为你知道，我一只手抱着哭闹的婴儿，另一只手拿着一杯苏打水。我就觉得，“哦，顺便说一下，我来谈谈，你知道，别克车，这很有趣。”几个月后，有人告诉我，因为我的推特，他们家人刚刚买到一辆性价比很高的别克车。社交媒体的影响力现在真是太疯狂了。你会发现，你在一开始时，你在回应方面已经有了很大的进步和成长。
And I say this with just admiration and as a compliment, I mean, you have really, I think, from where you were when you started to where you are today, in terms of understanding that responsibility of being, you know, someone that's a voice in the industry and trying to make sure you get it right and understand things that you don't understand. You're trying, you know, you ask great questions and you, like I said, I mean, the level of engagement you get is, you know, I think if I was, if I was a year age now, I'm significantly older. I mean, I, you know, you would be a model I would follow on that. I think it turns out media media, media, media, yeah, it's a console learning process. And I like you said, yeah, 100%. I was, you know, more rough round edges. I've definitely cleaned up that.
我以钦佩的口吻并且给予称赞地说这句话，我的意思是，从你开始的时候到现在，你真的从一个理解责任的角度，成为了业界的声音，并且努力确保你做到正确并且了解你不了解的事情。你试图去学习，你提出了很好的问题，并且，就像我说的，你获得了很高的参与度，如果我现在还年轻一点，我会以你为榜样。我认为，媒体媒体，媒体媒体，是一个不断学习的过程。就像你说的，没错。我曾经有点粗糙，但是现在我肯定改进了。
You know, I think the, the guests that you have on it, so it's just, it shows that you are a student of the industry. And I think today, people are student, true students of the industry and are willing to be to understand that with the responsibility that they have if they become a voice. I think they, they, and there's few, there's not many. I mean, I think there's too many that are willing to be a voice without being a true student. They're, you know, I'm the, I think those of us that are students end up probably wielding the most influence over time. So, you know, now, I like to say, I just, I'm just a guy who's been around a long time and there's seen a lot and, you know, had a little bit of a knack for writing. And you're keeping humble. You know, I, well, you know, I understand Mark. Yeah, where I've been.
你知道，我认为你所邀请的嘉宾，这显示了你是这个行业的学生。我认为如今的人们都是这个行业的学生，如果他们成为声音的话，他们愿意承担相应的责任。我认为他们，他们，但是他们很少，没有太多。我的意思是，我认为有太多人愿意成为一个声音，却不是真正的学生。要在时间的推移中产生最大影响力，那些像我们一样的学生可能会最终占据主导地位。现在，我想说的是，我只是一个经历了很长时间的人，见过很多事情，而且还对写作有点天赋。你保持谦逊。我明白，马克。是的，我知道我经历了什么。
So, well, Cliff, this has been super fun, very insightful. Wear a kid, if someone wants to learn more about you, thanks for working. Yeah, the vangshipport.com, AutoVate.org or the website, you follow me, I linked in on Twitter, you know, I love it. You know, and those are the really Twitter and LinkedIn, only two social media places for me. Yeah, but we, we've got a newsletter and a podcast now, which we've launched, I've launched somewhat begrudgingly over the last couple months. So, I'm learning a movie.
嗯，好的，克利夫，这真的非常有趣，很有深度。如果有人想要了解更多关于你的事情，可以通过vangshipport.com、AutoVate.org网站或我的链接，关注我的推特和领英页面。你知道，我非常喜欢它们。这两个社交媒体平台对我来说已经足够了。但是我们现在也有了一份新闻通讯和一个播客，在过去几个月里，我有些勉强地推出了它们。所以，我正在学习一门新的技能。
You know, I have a certain idea of how the podcast, how I want the podcast to be, you know, so we'll see it's a I'm content to learn. We're all figuring it out as we go. We are, we are. I started this after our phone call with the body just for fun, used to Rajband. And, you know, I was talking about some consumer topics and then I got to a point and say, I need more content. And then I, you know, started bringing on guests and it just got interesting. And here we are today. So, it's just a constant evolution. And so, we'll see where, you know, we'll see what happens in one, two, three years. Well, keep it up. This has been from the watch. Appreciate it, Cliff.
你知道吗，我对播客有着自己的想法，我希望它能变成什么样子，所以我们会看到的，我对学习感到满意。我们都是边学边摸索。是的，我们都是。在和那家公司的电话后，我开始这个播客只是为了好玩，当时用的是Rajband。然后，我谈论了一些消费者话题，发现需要更多的内容。然后，我开始请来嘉宾，事情就变得有趣起来了。如今，我们就在这里。所以，这只是一个不断发展的过程。所以，我们将看到在一、两、三年后会发生什么。继续加油吧！感谢你的支持，Cliff。
Well, Cliff, thanks for coming on. This has been awesome. And we'll talk to great. Thanks. All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating. Consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you guys next time.
好的，克利夫，谢谢你的到来。这段时间非常棒。我们将会保持联系。谢谢。好的，希望你们喜欢这一集。请为我们的播客评分。考虑订阅节目并查看节目备注中提到的链接。感谢收听。下次见！