Rivian Earnings Recap, Tesla China Sales, Third Party Apps

Hey everybody RobMower here and today we've got some new numbers for Tesla out of China, we'll also take a look at Rivians earnings always interesting to see their progress, we've got an update on Tesla energy and a couple other items as well.

大家好，RobMower在这里。今天我们关注一些有关特斯拉在中国的最新数字，同时也会关注Rivian的收益情况，看看他们的进展。我们还会给大家带来特斯拉能源的最新进展，以及其他几个项目的更新。

Starting off with the stock, Tesla continuing to hold up okay after the Kirk Corn resignation, finishing down 7 tenths of a percent on the day to day to close at $249.70, while the NASDAQ was down a little bit more, 8 tenths of a percent on the day. After yesterday's episode we did get just a little bit more information from Elon on the Xach stepping down, Holmars saying that sounds like he got a job off for somewhere else that couldn't say no to, Elon replying to that saying quote 13 years is a long tour of duty, Zach will spend time with friends and family, then do something else, end quote. So despite what seemed to be a somewhat sudden announcement still signs here of things being amicable.

开始说股票方面，特斯拉在柯克·科恩辞职后依然表现良好，当天收盘下跌了0.7%，收于249.70美元；而纳斯达克指数当天下跌了0.8%。在昨天的节目中，埃隆·马斯克对扎克辞职提供了更多信息，霍尔玛斯表示这听起来像是他在别处得到了一份无法拒绝的工作机会，马斯克回应道：“13年是一段漫长的工作期，扎克将会与家人和朋友相聚一段时间，然后做一些别的事情。”因此，尽管这个辞职似乎有些突然，但仍然可以看出双方仍然友好相处的迹象。

Alright let's move into the China numbers, we've got new insured vehicle numbers and then we also have monthly numbers for domestic and export sales for July, we'll look at the weekly insured numbers first, so from July 31st to August 6th, 12,800 Tesla's were insured in China, this represents an improvement in the quarter over quarter pace, now through 5 weeks about 44,000 vehicles have been insured in China, which would be an increase from Q4 and Q1, about 28,000 and 34,000 respectively for those quarters, still a bit behind Q2, which was at 47,000 at this point.

好的，让我们转向中国的数据。我们有新的车辆保险数量，以及7月份国内和出口销售的每月数量。我们先来看一下每周的保险数量。从7月31日到8月6日，在中国有12800辆特斯拉投保了保险，这表明季度比季度的增速有所改善。到目前为止的5个星期，中国已有大约44000辆车投保了保险，相比第四季度和第一季度的分别28000辆和34000辆，这是一个增长。不过，这个数字仍然稍微落后于第二季度，那时的数字达到了47000辆。

So last week Tesla was pacing down about 10,000 vehicles down about 25% for the quarter over quarter trend, that now improves to down just 3000, and less than 10% for that quarter to date quarter over quarter comparison. So this looks like a really strong number and it is a good number but we do have to add some context for the 5th week of Q2, remember that was in early May and there was a holiday in China during that week, that was then actually the lowest week of the quarter, so no surprise to see Tesla gain some ground when that gets added into the comparison. Alright let's move on to the July numbers, remember we previously had the total wholesale sales for the month, that's the combination of retail and export sales, and the Model 3 and Model Y breakdown for the total figure. So domestic sales came in at 31,400 exports at 32,800, more than a 5050 split towards exports, which is a little bit higher than we tend to see for an average quarter, but not unusual for the first month of quarter, even with the unwinding of the delivery wave. More interestingly I think is that split between Model 3 and Model Y, we don't have it for retail or exports yet that I've seen, we should get that very soon, but for total wholesale sales about 20,000 Model 3's, about 44,000 Model Y's, and this ratio isn't really any different than what we have seen over the last few months, so 32% of wholesale sales in July, Model 3, it's only 1% lower than June and 2% lower than the average so far this year. So no significant drop off yet in Model 3 sales as we continue to watch for more evidence of Project Highland, most of the reports had been for downtime in June which obviously didn't seem to come to fruition, there hadn't been as much discussion in July so, not too surprising to not see Model 3 drop off yet, we'll get a much better understanding of that though when we do get the production numbers for July, which really should be any time now and then of course we have seen these rumors about downtime or shutdowns or switching over production really increase now for August which, you know, we're gonna have to wait more time to figure that out, but between June, August and July I think July probably had the least talk of that sort of a transition happening, but the production numbers when we do get those will give us even more insight.

所以上周，特斯拉公司的销售额下降了约10,000辆，相比上一季度下降了25%。而现在，这个数字已经改进为下降了仅3000辆，相比季度同比下降了不到10%。所以从表面上看，这是一个非常强劲的数字，也是一个好数字，但我们必须为第二季度第五周添加一些背景信息。请记住，那是在五月初，中国那周有一个假期，那周实际上是本季度的最低销量周，所以不足为奇看到特斯拉在这个比较中取得了一些进展。 好的，让我们继续讨论七月份的销售数字。请记住，我们之前已经有了该月份的总批发销售额，即零售和出口销售的结合，以及Model 3和Model Y的总销售额的细分。国内销售额为31,400辆，出口销售额为32,800辆，出口销售占比超过50%，这比我们通常在一个季度中看到的比例稍高，但对于一个季度的第一个月来说并不意外，即使有交付高峰的回落。更有趣的是Model 3和Model Y之间的销售比例，尽管我还没有看到零售或出口方面的数据，但我们很快会得到的。总的批发销售额约为20,000辆Model 3和44,000辆Model Y，这个比例与过去几个月的情况并没有太大不同，所以7月份销售的汽车中，32%是Model 3，这比六月份少了1%，比今年迄今为止的平均值低了2%。所以目前Model 3的销量还没有显著下降，我们将继续观察更多关于高地计划的证据，大部分报道都是关于六月份的停产，显然没有实现，而七月份的讨论没有那么多，因此看不到Model 3销量的下降也并不令人意外，不过当我们得到七月份的生产数字时，我们将能更好地理解这一点，而这些谣言关于八月份的停产、关闭或转产现在也越来越多，我们将不得不再等待一段时间才能弄清楚，但从六月、八月和七月来看，七月份可能是最少讨论这种过渡发生的月份，但当我们得到这些生产数字时，我们将能获得更多的了解。

Alright, next up we've got some interesting reporting on Tesla and API access for developers, of course whenever this topic comes up, it spawns conversations about Tesla possibly building an app store and things like that, could be related but maybe a little bit premature so what the news is today is that standard fleet which is a fleet data aggregator and management software that connects with the Tesla API to collect a lot of that data similar to services like Tesla Fi, but each of these types of things has their own use case.

好的，接下来我们有一些关于特斯拉和开发者API访问的有趣报道。当然，每当谈到这个话题时，就会涉及到特斯拉可能建立一个应用商店等事情，可能是相关的，但可能有点过早。今天的新闻是，Standard Fleet是一个与特斯拉API连接的车队数据聚合和管理软件，类似于Tesla Fi这样的服务，用于收集大量的数据，但是每个这些类型的东西都有自己的用途。

So the news here with standard fleet is that they seem to be the first third party app that offers official integration with Tesla and a single sign on authorization with Tesla, which as shown here in some images from Tesla, or allow users to log in with their Tesla account and then grant various permissions to standard fleet, they can then get access to the data without ever needing a Tesla account password or anything like that, and these permissions can be controlled directly on Tesla's website.

关于标准车队的最新消息是，他们似乎是第一个与特斯拉进行官方集成并实现单一登录授权的第三方应用程序。正如特斯拉在一些图片中展示的那样，用户可以使用他们的特斯拉账户登录并授予标准车队各种权限，而无需使用特斯拉账户密码或其他信息，这些权限可以直接在特斯拉官方网站上进行控制。

So really what this is is a more official, better security way of doing things that have been being done, API access for third parties, which is definitely a great step forward and can be a building block for more of those things in the future, but a lot of people see headlines about Tesla and third party apps and think that that immediately means that they can go out and just build an app that's going to be downloadable in some Tesla store on Tesla vehicles, which although would be cool and maybe will come someday and there's plenty to talk about with that, that's not really what this is, at least as of yet. So just wanted to add some context around that not to diminish that this is a nice step forward, but hopefully that helps with some understanding.

所以，实际上，这是一种更正规、更安全的方式来进行已经在进行的事情，也就是为第三方提供API访问权限。这无疑是一个很大的进步，未来还可以构建更多这样的功能。但是，很多人看到特斯拉和第三方应用程序的标题，立刻认为他们可以自己开发一款可以在特斯拉车辆上下载的应用程序，这虽然很酷，也可能会在未来实现，并且关于这方面还有很多可以讨论的，但至少目前还不是这样的情况。所以，我只是想为此添加一些背景信息，不是为了贬低这个进展，但希望这能有助于一些理解。

Next we've got a quick update on Tesla Energy, Energy Hub today announcing that they and Tesla are partnering to allow Tesla energy customers to directly within the Tesla app enroll in Energy Hub's connected solutions program, which is a VPP or virtual powerpoint program that is offered in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Now obviously we have seen Tesla offer VPP programs in other states, so to me without having all the information, it would seem that Tesla in these markets is favoring a partnership instead of operating the VPP themselves.

接下来，我们迎来了关于特斯拉能源的一个快速更新，今天Energy Hub宣布他们与特斯拉合作，允许特斯拉能源的客户直接通过特斯拉应用程序参加Energy Hub的连接解决方案计划。该计划是一个在马萨诸塞州、康涅狄格州和罗得岛提供的虚拟电源计划（VPP）。显然，我们已经看到特斯拉在其他州提供了VPP计划，所以在我看来，没有得到所有信息的情况下，似乎特斯拉更倾向于在这些市场与合作伙伴合作，而不是自己运营VPP计划。

This will still allow powerwall owners to be rewarded for any excess energy that they have stored that can be drawn during periods of high need. So the customers will benefit, presumably Energy Hub will benefit, not clear exactly if Tesla will share in those profits, but obviously it does make the powerwall as a product more compelling. If you are a Tesla Energy customer in those markets, definitely feel free to share your thoughts in the comments today.

这将仍能保证Powerwall用户在需要量大的时段能从他们保存的多余能源中受益。所以，顾客将会受益，预计Energy Hub也会受益，虽然不清楚特斯拉是否会与其分享这些利润，但显然这会使Powerwall成为更具吸引力的产品。如果你是这些市场上的特斯拉能源客户，欢迎在评论中分享你的想法。

Alright, let's move on to Rivian Earnings, they reported their Q2 earnings aftermarket closed today, relatively muted stock reaction, so far although they did seem to beat on most metrics, and they did announce that they are increasing their production guidance for 2023 from 50,000 before, now up to 52,000, so not a huge bump, but adding that significant digit which definitely makes it seem like they are a little bit more confident in where that figure is going to come in at.

好的，让我们继续讨论Rivian的盈利情况。他们在今天盘后公布了第二季度的盈利报告，虽然股价的反应相对较低调，但从目前情况看，他们似乎在大多数指标上超过了预期。此外，他们还宣布将2023年的生产指引从之前的5万辆增加到5.2万辆，虽然增幅不是很大，但这个显著数字的添加无疑表明他们对于产量的预期更加自信。

They also announced some significant improvements on their gross margin, obviously these are still challenging, significantly negative, but from the first quarter to the second quarter, they improved their gross margin per vehicle by about $35,000, and year over year, much more significant improvement than that, so if you look at the numbers on the far right you can see this quarter, their gross profit, mind you not net profit, gross profit was negative $412 million, so across 12,640 deliveries, that's a negative gross profit per vehicle of about $32,500, but last quarter, that was negative $67,000, last year, it was negative $157,000, so still losing a whole bunch of money before even considering operating costs, but moving in the right direction and moving relatively quickly if they could do another quarter with that kind of improvement, that would obviously push them into positive gross profitability, but still a long ways to go from there, because again you gotta cover the operating costs, Tesla probably had positive gross profit for basically its entire history for like a decade before actually net profit started to materialize, and although this was a dramatic improvement, it's coming from a really low bar, losing $67,000 on every vehicle you sell, that's a big loss, and most of the progress is from amortizing it out over a greater delivery number, they lost $500 million in gross profit last quarter, now they lost $400 million in gross profit this quarter, so if you look at it a little bit differently and say that this quarter they improved their gross loss by about $100 million, then they need to do that for 3-4 more quarters to get to gross profitability, that type of progress is more in line with what RIVIIN is guiding for, they're saying that they expect to reach positive gross margin sometime in 2024, so that alone shows that they don't expect to be making these $30,000 improvements every quarter, it gets a little bit harder as they approach positive gross profit, then of course you gotta make enough gross profit eventually to cover your operating expenses, that for RIVIIN this quarter was $873 million, for context that's about 45% of Tesla's operating expenses, even though RIVIIN sold less than 3% as many cars as Tesla did this quarter, that was however down from about $1 billion in this period last year, so making improvement but still a long ways to go, so you've got the negative $400 million in gross profit, add that to the negative $900 million roughly in operating expenses, RIVIIN showed an operating loss this quarter of nearly $1.3 billion, but again, unimprovement over last year's $1.7 billion loss from operations, as for cash, net cash from operations was negative $1.3 1.4 billion, negative free cash flow $1.6 billion, with RIVIIN ending the quarter with just over $10 billion in cash and just over $11 billion in total liquidity, so still sitting on a decent chunk of cash, they did also improve their forecast for EBITDA, now they expect to lose $4.2 billion this year in EBITDA from 4.3 previously, and they lowered their capex forecast from $2 billion previously down to $1.7 billion for the year now.

他们还宣布了一些对毛利率的重大改善，显然这些仍然具有挑战性，并且显著为负，但从第一季度到第二季度，他们的每辆车毛利率提高了约35,000美元，而且相比去年同期的改善更为显著，因此如果您查看最右边的数字，您可以看到该季度的总毛利润（请注意这并非净利润），为负412亿美元，所以在12,640辆交付车辆中，每辆车的总毛利为约32,500美元，但上季度为负67,000美元，去年为负157,000美元，因此即使在考虑运营成本之前，他们仍然在亏损大量资金，但朝着正确的方向迅速发展，如果他们能在下一个季度保持那样的改善，那显然会将他们推向毛利盈利，但距离那里还有很长的路要走，因为您还需要覆盖运营成本，特斯拉在实现净利润之前，净毛利润基本上在过去的十年间都是正的，在这个季度损失了67,000美元，这是一个巨大的亏损，而大部分进展是通过交付量的增加而进行的分期摊销，上个季度他们损失了5亿美元的毛利润，而这个季度则降至4亿美元，所以如果您稍微换个角度，可以说本季度他们将毛亏损减少了约1亿美元，然后他们还需要再经历3-4个季度才能实现毛利盈利，这种进展更符合RIVIIN的指导，他们表示他们预计在2024年某个时候实现正毛利率，因此可以看出，他们并不希望每个季度都获得这种3万美元的改善，随着接近实现正毛利润，进展会变得更加困难，当然，您最终还需要获得足够的毛利润来支付您的运营费用，RIVIIN本季度的运营费用为8.73亿美元，这约占特斯拉运营费用的45％，尽管RIVIIN本季度的销售量不到特斯拉的3％，但与去年同期的约10亿美元相比有所改善，但仍有很长的路要走，所以负4亿美元的总毛利要加上约9亿美元的运营费用亏损，RIVIIN本季度的营业亏损约为13亿美元，但相比于去年17亿美元的营业亏损还是有所改善的，至于现金方面，经营活动的净现金流为负13.14亿美元，自由现金流为负16亿美元，RIVIIN季末的现金余额略超过100亿美元，总流动性略超过110亿美元，仍然持有相当可观的现金，他们还提高了对EBITDA的预测，现在他们预计今年的EBITDA亏损为42亿美元，而之前为43亿美元，并将他们的资本支出预测从之前的20亿美元下调为今年的17亿美元。

So those are the financial takeaways, progress, still a long ways to go, but they've got a lot of cash left, and then we'll see if they have anything interesting to say on the call, I haven't had a chance to listen to that as of this recording.

这些就是财务要点了，进展还有很长的路要走，但他们还剩下很多现金，我们将在电话招呼中看看他们是否有什么有趣的话要说，我在录音时还没有机会听过那个电话。

One other interesting detail from their shareholder letter, they did talk about their charging efforts, they talked about the adoption of Tesla's NACS, but they do mention that they continue to plan to expand the RIVIIN adventure charging network, and add NACS to those expansions. As we talked about at the time of those announcements, I think it'll be interesting to see what RIVIIN does because as they are a little bit more sort of adventure-focused brand, it could make more sense for them marketing-wise to have these charging stations in more remote locations that maybe Tesla isn't as eager to service, whereas the RIVIIN might not make a lot of sense, but it might be worth it from a brand-building perspective, at least in their eyes, to fill those spots. And that would be good news for Tesla owners, especially if those are then NACS connectors.

他们的股东信中还提到了一个有趣的细节，他们谈到了他们的充电努力，谈到了采用特斯拉的NACS，但他们也提到他们继续计划扩展RIVIIN冒险充电网络，并在这些扩展中增加NACS。正如我们在那些公告时讨论过的，我认为观察RIVIIN的行动会很有趣，因为他们更注重冒险的品牌形象，对于他们的市场营销而言，在更偏远的地方建立这些充电站可能更有意义，而特斯拉可能不太愿意提供服务，而对于RIVIIN而言可能没有多大意义，但从品牌建设的角度来看，至少在他们眼中，填补这些空白位置可能是值得的。这对特斯拉车主来说将是个好消息，尤其是如果这些充电站支持NACS连接器。

Alright, last thing before we wrap it up today, just a quick look at the calendar since we didn't have a chance to do that yesterday, but we do have the Consumer Price Index, CPI, and Producer Price Index, PPI reports coming up later this week. Those will be before market open on Thursday and Friday respectively, so definitely something to keep an eye on for later this week.

好的，今天结束之前，我们快速看一下日历，因为昨天我们没有机会做这个。不过这周后面我们有消费者物价指数（CPI）和生产者物价指数（PPI）报告即将发布。这两个报告将分别在周四和周五的开市前发布，所以这绝对是本周稍后需要关注的事情。

Alright, that'll wrap it up for today, as always, thank you for listening, make sure you subscribe to ANSI and our notifications, also find me on X at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, August 9th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里，一如既往地感谢你的收听。请确保订阅 ANSI 并开启我们的通知，还可以在 X 上找到我参与的特斯拉播客节目。明天我们将在8月9日星期三继续播放特斯拉日报节目，再次感谢你。