The Taylor Swift Boost - The Transcript Podcast

Welcome everyone to a new episode of the transcript podcast. You've got me, Scott Chrisloff. I'm editor of the transcript along with Eric Mokayo. So we set out a new issue of the newsletter yesterday. What we saw was an uptick for the US economy. Maybe not too surprising because as equity indexes have risen, I think optimism is just generally growing that we are at the end of the Fed hike cycle and that inflation is on the way down. And the economy has normalized. And so I think people are starting to get excited that we might be at the start of a renewed upturn in the economic cycle.

欢迎大家来到新一期的文字转录播客。我是斯科特·克里斯洛夫，副编辑是埃里克·莫卡约。昨天我们发布了一期新的通讯。我们发现美国经济出现了回暖的迹象，这并不太令人意外，因为随着股票指数的上涨，人们普遍开始对未来感到乐观，他们相信我们已经接近美联储加息周期的尾声，通胀正在下降，经济正在趋于正常。因此，我认为人们开始对经济周期的复苏开始感到兴奋。

Eric, what are your thoughts on this? I can't remember last year. You said the capital market kind of tend to bottom before the commission kind of itself bottoms and then goes on a trade competition. It's like we're on that part of the cycle where people are a big Bob, the mystic. People feel like we're past the tough times. You remember last year the major, I think, symbol was the hurricane. But this time it's like, okay, we're past the hurricane. We're not happy. And after all, things are looking good. I'm looking forward and that's translating lots to the consumers also.

艾瑞克，你对这个有什么想法？我记不清去年的情况了。你说资本市场似乎会在委员会本身触底前触底，然后开始竞争交易。就好像我们正处在周期中的那个阶段，人们在失望和迷惘中。人们感觉我们已经度过了艰难时期。你还记得去年，我想，主要的象征是飓风。但这次好像，好吧，我们度过了飓风。我们很开心。毕竟，事情正在好转。我对未来充满期待，而这也在很大程度上转化为对消费者的影响。

So I think the key word I think for many earnings calls last week or stabilization. If it's AWS, the cloud growth has stabilized. So it's going down. Freed recession is ending. Inflation areas are beating. So I think like all around kind of positive sentiments. So I don't know how long this will last. It depends a lot on what the Fed does in September. And then Johnson Hall is coming up. So then I don't know what any other pickings that you have in terms of the outlook, especially for the economy going into the second half of the year now.

我认为上周许多财报电话会议的关键词是稳定。如果是AWS，云增长已经稳定下来了，所以它在下降。美国经济衰退正在结束，通胀领域表现不错。所以我认为整体来说都有一种积极的情绪。所以我不知道这种情况会持续多久，很大程度上取决于美联储在九月份的行动，以及约翰逊大厅即将到来。所以我不知道你对下半年经济前景有没有其他的看法。

Yeah. Well, I mean, I think we've been picking up a long time now that inflation is peaked. And this week felt very definitive in the way that people were talking about it. I think it was like almost like, and of course, inflation has peaked. Or of course, inflation is coming down now. I think there was a question over the last 12 months of yes, inflation has come down, but we're still in an inflationary environment today. It's more like, yeah, inflation seems to be, it seems to have peaked and seems to be coming down quite a bit. So that should make the Fed really happy, I think, as they are, as they're looking forward in terms of what policy they should maintain. Still, though, it doesn't seem like they're ready to signal a decline in interest rates, but at least maybe the hike cycle seems to be almost at the end, if not over.

是的，嗯，我是说，我认为我们已经很久以来一直在意识到通胀已经达到峰值了。而这周的言论感觉非常明确。就像几乎是这样的，当然，通胀已经达到峰值了。或者当然，通胀正在降低。我认为过去12个月还存在一个问题，那就是是的，通胀已经下降，但我们今天仍然处于通胀环境中。现在更像是，是的，通胀似乎已经达到峰值并且似乎正在大幅下降。所以我认为这应该让联储非常高兴，因为他们在考虑应该保持什么样的政策。不过，他们似乎还没有准备好信号一个降息，但至少加息周期似乎已经接近尾声，如果不是已经结束的话。

I mean, I keep picking in regards to inflation picking and being past that there's a port there about we're starting to becoming more difficult for companies to pass through the increased costs to the consumers. It feels like we're hitting that point where the consumer can not allow to take any more increases in price increases and companies are to rethink their strategies beyond just increases in pricing. And that feels like that can call the end of a price increase hike cycle. And then now it's about, okay, what else can we do in terms of maybe cutting costs and also like to preserve margins at the end of the day? I think this is a key thing that I've been looking at for a couple of months where companies, because early this year, what was happening is that we can see increased prices now, consumers are like, we can't allow and actually do price increases without heating our volumes a bit too much. So I think that's a key peaking.

我是说，就通胀而言，我一直在寻找迹象，而当这一点过去后，对于公司而言，增加成本成为越来越困难，以向消费者增加费用。现在感觉我们已经到了消费者无法再承受更多价格上涨的地步，公司需要思考超越仅仅提高价格的策略。这感觉像是价格上涨周期的终结。现在的问题是，我们还能在哪些方面节约成本，最终保持利润率？我认为这是我几个月来一直关注的关键点，在今年年初，我们看到了增加的价格，而消费者表示不能再接受价格的增加，否则会对销量产生不良影响。我认为这是一个关键的峰值。

And beyond, I think the US, I think one key peaking I've also been checking out the past couple of weeks is about how China is traveling to actually, I mean, coming into this year, most people are very optimistic about China growth, lots of companies are betting on the picking up growth in China to boost their growth this year. But it feels like that doesn't materialize and going into second half of the year, it feels like China now needs an economic stimulus package. There is almost equal to what the US had. What are your pickings around China and what companies are seeing around it?

并且，我认为美国，我认为一个我在过去几周一直在关注的重要问题是中国的情况。进入今年，大多数人对中国的增长非常乐观，许多公司押注于中国今年的增长来推动他们的增长。但是感觉好像这并没有实现，在进入年底的时候，感觉中国现在需要一个经济刺激计划，几乎相当于美国的那个。你对中国的看法如何？你看到了哪些与之相关的公司？

Yeah, it's been a bit surprising to me, I guess, that the Chinese economy had so sluggish, has continued to be sluggish. I would have expected more of a rebound from the COVID opening. And so my own view of that is that the geopolitics of China makes it such that I think companies are trying to turn away from China more and nearshore manufacturing, for instance. And so that provides probably a pretty strong headwind for the Chinese economy on top of everything else.

是的，对我而言，中国经济的不景气持续下去确实有些让我感到意外。我本来预期COVID疫情后会有更多的经济复苏。因此，我个人的观点是，中国的地缘政治使得许多公司试图转向其他地区，例如近岸制造业。因此，这对于中国经济来说可能会带来相当大的阻力，加剧了现有问题。

But big take at least like Apple, really growing in emerging markets, it feels like Apple is betting a lot of growth, especially in India. And it was one of the boosts that came this quarter. I don't know how much further that growth has, because it mostly focuses on high-end consumers, I don't know how many of those they have to tap into.

但像苹果这样的大公司至少在新兴市场上有很大的进展，感觉苹果正在大胆地押注增长，尤其是在印度。这是本季度推动增长的其中一个因素。我不知道这种增长还能持续多久，因为它主要关注高端消费者，我也不知道他们还能触及多少这样的消费者。

But something else that we noted also, capital markets are healing in terms of that's been the theme in the past two or three weeks. It feels like we're part of the bottom of the capital market issues that they've been having for a while. But then something you noted was about the implications of iron, long-term interest rates. For many of us, we've not reached through these very high interest rates that we have, correctly. When I talk to my father-in-law, he tells me about 15% interest rates in the 80s in Scandinavia. I think that's surprising and shocking for me, because there's been an environment where we have 6% is so high, 7% is very high for us.

但我们还注意到，资本市场也正在恢复，这已经是过去两三周以来的主题。感觉我们是资本市场问题的底部一部分，这个问题已经存在了一段时间。但你还注意到铁矿石对长期利率的影响。对我们许多人来说，我们还没有真正经历过这种非常高的利率。我和我的岳父聊过，他告诉我80年代斯堪的纳维亚地区有15%的利率。我觉得这对我来说很让人惊讶和震惊，因为我们周围的环境中，6%的利率已经很高，7%对我们来说也是很高的。

I don't know. What's your thoughts on the long-term implications in terms of the market processing the fact that we have high interest rates that we need to cooperate even as we borrow and lend to companies? I think this is the biggest thing for capital markets is that ultimately, equity prices are passed through of the cost of capital. The cost of capital is primarily set by the Fed in the short term. Then you extend direction as you go asset classes. Equities are the longest-duration asset class. To the extent that long-term interest rates stay higher and that equity price is actually starts at discount. Those long-term interest rates, you can have very significant multiple compression in equity prices.

我不知道。你对于市场处理我们需要合作的事实——即我们拥有高利率的同时需要借贷给公司——所产生的长期影响有什么想法？我认为这对于资本市场来说是最重要的事情，因为最终，股权价格会受到资本成本的影响。短期内，资本成本主要由美联储确定，而随后你会扩展至不同的资产类别。股权是持续时间最长的资产类别。如果长期利率保持较高，那么股权价格实际上会打折。在这种情况下，你会看到股权价格出现很大幅度的多重压缩。

Does that then imply we'll be having bear market in the stock market? Potentially, yeah. It reminds me when I was early in my career and analyst, it was 2008. We had just gone zero interest rate policy in 2009. I remember doing DCFs for portfolio managers and plugging in at 2.5% 10-year, wherever we were at the time. It would show that the price of the stock should be five times higher. I would show it to our senior portfolio managers and they would be like, yeah, but you can't do that. That's not actually going to stay there. That's not what the discount rate is. Lo and behold, after 10 years, we basically pressed that interest rate into every asset in the world. You actually do have these pretty significant lags potentially between where long-term interest rates get priced into our long-duration assets, most importantly equity.

这是否意味着我们股市将进入熊市呢？有可能。这让我想起我早年作为分析师工作时，那是2008年。我们刚刚在2009年实行了零利率政策。我记得为投资组合经理制作贴现现金流量表，在当时以10年期2.5%的利率进行计算。结果显示，股票的价格应该是现在的五倍。我向我们的高级投资组合经理展示了这个结果，他们会说：“是的，但你不能这样做。这不是实际的利率水平，贴现率不是这样算的。”然后，我们真的将这个利率推给了世界上的每一项资产。实际上，长期利率从定价到我们的长期资产（尤其是股权）之间可能存在相当大的滞后。

If we're in a world where really this zero interest rate policy is over, there's still a lot that needs to be priced into capital markets around that. It could provide a major headwind, maybe not over the next three months, but over the next three years. So something really to think about there in terms of multiple compression and date, but the long-term interest rates have a lot.

如果我们处于一个零利率政策结束的世界中，仍然有许多需要在资本市场中定价的事情。这可能会成为一个重要的阻力，也许不会在接下来的三个月内，但会在接下来的三年内。所以在多重压缩和日期方面有一些需要考虑的事情，但是长期利率的影响很大。

It could. The other thing I've been thinking a lot about in this, it seems like we're ready to get an up cycle here just based on where the Fed's policy is. But the last up cycle is that we've gotten over the last 15 years have usually been the tailwind of very low interest rates behind them. So even if we have an up cycle here, how much does the fact interest rates are still higher in packed economic activity? I don't know.

这可能是可以的。在这方面，我一直在思考的另一件事是，根据美联储的政策，我们似乎已经准备好迎来一个上升周期。但过去15年我们经历的上升周期通常是以非常低的利率做为推动力。所以，即使我们在这里出现一个上升周期，利率仍然较高会对经济活动产生多大影响？我不知道。

Could just mean that we have more of a dampened upturn than what we've been used to in the last 10 to 15 years. And hopefully that's not disappointing to people. What if the Fed then gets to cut interest rates? They're not going to cut this year. Probably next year will be under the lookout for that. So maybe that would be being a boost to the upturn that most people are expecting, or it's just being implied by many of the companies that you're injecting out. Who knows? Maybe.

这可能意味着我们在过去10到15年所经历的繁荣增长不会像以往那样强劲。希望这对人们不会带来失望。如果联邦储备委员会降低利率会怎样呢？他们今年不会降息，可能明年才会考虑。所以也许那对大多数人期望的增长会有所促进，或者许多公司正在暗示。谁知道呢？也许吧。

Yeah, but something that I picked up, which I wanted, maybe you can say a few comments from you on, is that the weak IT span that is continuing, I think zoom in for the big negative for the second half of the year, we don't see a big gap, especially in IT spend. And then you have companies like Amazon saying, what do we see is stabilizing in terms of growth in AWS cloud and all that. What do you make of that kind of like the weak IT spend going into second half of the year?

是的，但我想谈谈我注意到的一点，也希望你能对此发表一些评论，那就是持续的IT支出疲软，我认为这将成为下半年的一个主要负面因素，我们并不看好存在较大的差距，尤其是在IT支出方面。同时像亚马逊这样的公司表示，我们看到AWS云和其他方面的增长正在趋于稳定。你对下半年IT支出疲软这一情况有何看法？

I mean, I think AWS is the market leader. So if they're seeing a normalization, then there's probably normalization happening in that industry.

我的意思是，我认为AWS是市场领导者。所以，如果他们正在经历一种正常化的现象，那么在这个行业里可能也正在发生正常化。

I mean, it seems like especially in the consumer electronics markets, this from our perspective seems to be a bit still weak, but they seem to be getting a lot of growth from emerging markets, so that's boosting their growth forward.

我的意思是，从我们的角度来看，尤其是在消费电子市场，这似乎还有些薄弱，但是它们似乎正在从新兴市场获得大量增长，因此这推动了它们的增长前景。

But the most interesting aspect, though, also this summer, was there's still a lot of travel happening and leisure travel, especially, it's very strong. And I talked about a friend in the airlines industry, they've high prices significantly, but there's still a lot of demand that is still going on in this market.

然而，尽管如此，今年夏天最有趣的方面是旅行和休闲旅行仍然非常活跃。我曾与一位从事航空业的朋友交流，他们的票价飙升了很多，但市场上仍然存在很大的需求。

I don't get it. Especially people to stop at least traveling for a while in fashion, having hit the pockets, but people really want to travel. Consumers are resilient, but the economy has been reluctant. People want to spend things on the things they want to spend money on. And travel is top of the list. Yeah, experiences.

我没明白。尤其是人们在流行时停止旅行一段时间后，虽然花销受到了打击，但人们真的很想旅行。消费者是有弹性的，但经济一直不太好。人们希望把钱花在他们想花钱的事物上。而旅行是首选。是的，是体验。

We still live in a time and age of experiential consumers, and the pandemic interrupted that for a bit, but not for long. We still want our experiences and we want them now. Yeah, I got to go see Taylor Swift in concert. Whatever it is.

我们仍然生活在一个追求体验的消费时代，尽管疫情稍微中断了一段时间，但并没有持续太久。我们仍然渴望体验，并且希望立即得到。不管是什么体验，比如我去看了泰勒·斯威夫特的演唱会。

I was surprised to see Taylor Swift being measured in the Fed press conference as a question in terms of boosting economic growth. It's a Taylor Swift world. We are living in all Swifties. We live in quite a world. I'm the real live. Taylor Swift is a boost economic growth now. That's it. Yep.

我很惊讶地看到泰勒·斯威夫特在联邦储备会议上被当做一个问题，被用来提高经济增长。这是一个属于泰勒·斯威夫特的世界。我们都是斯威夫特的忠实粉丝。我们生活在一个相当奇特的世界。我是真实存在的。泰勒·斯威夫特现在成了促进经济增长的一种方式。就是这样。是的。

All right. That's a good place to close out this week. Thank you so much for joining us. See you again next week. The earnings call, continue giving you good quotes for mining calls. Check out our newsletter and our podcasting. Bye for this week. And see you next week.

好的，这是一个结束本周的好地方。非常感谢你的加入。下周再见。我们的财报电话会继续为你提供挖掘行业的好口碑。请查看我们的新闻稿和播客。这周就先告一段落，下周再见。