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Secrets of buying/selling dealerships, Best/worst auto franchises, Have profits peaked? | Alan Haig

发布时间 2023-08-04 21:55:37    来源

摘要

In this episode, I'm speaking with Alan Haig, President & Founder of Haig Partners, LLC. 00:00 - Intro 01:51 - Alan's background 10:07 - The journey to founding Haig Partners 20:21 - The state of dealership M&A 50:11 - Best & worst brands for consumer experience 59:36 - Will this hot market continue throughout the decade? 1:03:54 - The independent dealer market of the future 1:20:57 - Wrapping up Follow Alan: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alan-haig Haig Partners - https://www.haigpartners.com Please take a moment to visit this episode's sponsor: ⁠Fullpath (https://fullpath.com)⁠ – Discover Automotive's Leading Customer Data and Experience Platform. Turn your first-party data into customers for life with ⁠Fullpath⁠. Check out ⁠⁠⁠the website⁠⁠⁠ for more and follow me on Twitter ⁠@GuyDealership⁠! Interested in advertising with CarDealershipGuy? Join the sponsor waitlist ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.

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It's crazy how everything's changed, but yeah, that makes sense, right? The rage went up and we all made more money. I don't know about the independence side, but the franchise dealers. Definitely not on the independence side. You usually push you down your profits. Oh, yeah, yeah. So. What's up, everyone? This is Car dealership guy. You're listening to the Car dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Let's get into today's episode.
太疯狂了，一切都变了，但没错，这是有道理的，对吧？愤怒情绪上升，我们都赚了更多的钱。关于独立方面我不太清楚，但对于连锁经销商来说，绝对不适用于独立方面。通常他们会削减你的利润。哦，是的，是的。那么，大家好，我是汽车经销商先生。你正在收听的是《汽车经销商先生》播客，我努力为你提供最客观透明的对汽车市场的见解。让我们进入今天的节目。

Alan Haig is founder of Haig Advisors, one of the top dealership buy sell advisors in the country. He's been involved in the purchaser sale of over 380 dealerships valued at over $5.5 billion. In this conversation, we discussed how dealerships get bought and sold, the best and worst auto franchises, prices people are paying to acquire dealerships, whether dealership values will continue rising, and many less since from leading $5.5 billion in dealership buy sell transactions.
Alan Haig是Haig Advisors的创始人，该公司是全国顶尖的车行买卖顾问之一。他参与了超过380家车行的买卖交易，总价值超过55亿美元。在本次对话中，我们讨论了车行的买卖方式、最好和最差的汽车特许经销权、人们为收购车行所支付的价格、车行价值是否将继续上涨，以及从这550亿美元的车行交易中获得的许多经验教训。

There are so many gems in this episode and I think you'll find it fascinating. But before we get into the show, this episode is brought to you by Full Path. Wasted data is a serious issue in automotive, but data is the key to driving revenues, which means some dealers out there are just ignoring a goldmine that is staring them in the face. Let's face it, most dealerships are completely overrun with data silos. None of the data sources are integrated with each other, leaving the data as a jumbled mess instead of a clean set that could be turning into cash. Full Path solves this by gathering, cleaning and sorting your data into one platform so you can use it to speak to your customers' needs with killer AI-powered marketing campaigns. My friends over at Full Path are breaking barriers and I'm really excited to have them as a partner of the podcast. I believe in their product and more importantly, intermission to help dealers grow. Full Path can help you turn your data into dollars, find them at fullpath.com.
本集节目中有很多精华内容，我相信你会觉得很有趣。但在进入节目之前，本集由Full Path赞助。在汽车行业，浪费数据是一个严重的问题，但数据是推动收入增长的关键，这意味着一些汽车经销商正在忽视一个潜在的摇钱树。让我们面对现实，大多数经销商完全被数据孤岛所困扰。没有将数据源与彼此集成，导致数据杂乱无章，而不是整洁有序的，可以转化为现金的数据集。Full Path通过将您的数据收集、清理和整理到一个平台上来解决这个问题，这样您就可以利用它来满足您客户的需求，通过强大的人工智能营销活动与他们进行沟通。我的Full Path朋友们正在打破壁垒，我非常高兴他们成为本播客的合作伙伴。我相信他们的产品，更重要的是，他们的工具可以帮助经销商实现增长。Full Path可以帮助您将数据转化为利润，请访问fullpath.com了解更多信息。

All views of car dealership guy and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
这个播客中汽车经销商以及嘉宾的所有观点都仅代表他们个人的意见。这些观点不应被视为财务建议。该播客仅供信息参考。

Alan Hague, welcome to the CDG podcast. How are you Alan? Well, thanks for having me. Thanks for joining SuperPumped about this. Haven't had a good conversation about the state of the automotive M&A market, dealership acquisitions and there's tons to ask. So I'm just going to jump right in.
艾伦·海格，欢迎来到CDG播客。你好吗，艾伦？嗯，谢谢你邀请我来。很高兴能参与讨论汽车并购市场、经销商收购以及有很多问题要问。所以我就直接开始吧。

First things first, Alan, give us your background. How did you get to automotive advisory, dealership advisory, M&A? Give us a story. I started in investment banking, three out of college. I took a job with a firm called Drexel Burnham, which was one of the leading M&A shops at that time. I spent three years there learning about M&A and corporate finance. I went to business school and I graduated. I didn't want to go back into banking initially. I wanted to actually work at a company.
首先，Alan，请向我们介绍一下你的背景。你是怎样进入汽车咨询、经销商咨询和并购领域的呢？给我们讲个故事吧。我大学毕业后进入了投资银行业务，先后在Drexel Burnham 和一家当时颇具影响力的并购公司工作了三年。在那里，我学到了关于并购和企业金融的知识。之后我进入了商学院，并顺利毕业。起初我并不想回到银行业工作，我想要在一家公司里实际工作。

So I joined the Heisenberg family of companies after business school. He was running on a block cluster at that time and we were trying to evolve it from being a store-based company to a screen-based company. The block cluster had the opportunity to acquire Netflix for $50 million in past, one of the biggest misses or whiffs in corporate development history, I think. We sold Blockbuster to Viacom and then Wayne started AutoNation.
所以我在商学院毕业后加入了海森堡的公司集团。当时他正在经营一个以实体店为基础的商业群，我们试图将其发展成为一个以屏幕为基础的公司。过去，这个商业群有机会以5000万美元收购Netflix，这是公司发展史上最大的错失机会之一，我想。我们将Blockbuster卖给了维亚康姆，然后韦恩开始了AutoNation。

I was hired to write a business plan for AutoNation to enter the new vehicle business, the franchise business. They had a group of about 100 people working on the use-course Superstore side. So I put on my little NBA hat and I banged out a business plan for how to acquire dealerships, how to take the lessons that Blockbuster learned about national brands, scale, best practices, etc. The plan was to consolidate the new vehicle business the way that Blockbuster had in videos and waste management had in trash.
我被聘用来为AutoNation撰写一份商业计划，以进入新车业务、特许经营业务。他们有一个大约100人的团队负责使用Superstore开展业务。所以我戴上我的小NBA帽子，为如何收购经销商、如何应用像Blockbuster在国家品牌、规模和最佳实践方面所学到的经验等方面，撰写了一份商业计划。计划是通过模仿Blockbuster在视频和废物管理行业的做法，整合新车业务。

I didn't expect this because the first thing that comes to mind, I didn't know this Blockbuster story with respect to AutoNation, but the first thing that comes to mind is Circuit City, CarMax, Blockbuster AutoNation. It seems to be a trend here in the auto business, at least in the late 90s or early 2000s. It's interesting. Circuit City started CarMax and Circuit City has no more and the Blockbuster boys started AutoNation and Blockbuster has no more, so that's the creative destruction maybe.
我没想到会这样，因为我一开始想到的是，关于AutoNation，我不知道有这样一个大起大落的故事，但我一开始联想到的是Circuit City、CarMax以及Blockbuster AutoNation。在汽车行业，至少在90年代末或2000年代初，这似乎成了一种趋势。这非常有趣。Circuit City创立了CarMax，而Circuit City本身已经不存在了；而Blockbuster的创始人创立了AutoNation，而Blockbuster也已经不复存在了，这或许就是创造性的毁灭。

But I thought we had this great business plan, we were all proud of it and the board approved it and they said, great, I don't go by it, some car dealerships and I didn't know a single car dealer. So they teamed up with some people from Southeast Toyota and then we ended up acquiring the Maroonie organization and they teamed Mike and me up and we went on the road and met with almost all of Mike's friends that would talk with us and we acquired a lot of stores. We went from zero to $12 billion in franchise revenue in about three years. It was an incredible period of growth and we bought some of the best businesses in the country and we broke a lot of them.
但是我以为我们有一个很棒的商业计划，我们都为此感到自豪，董事会也批准了，他们说，“太好了，我不需要亲自参与，找些汽车经销商即可”。所以他们与东南丰田的一些人合作，然后我们最终收购了马鲁尼组织，他们将迈克和我组合在一起，我们开始在全国巡回访问，与迈克的几乎所有愿意和我们交流的朋友见面，我们收购了许多商店。我们在大约三年的时间里，从零发展到了120亿美元的特许经营收入。这是一个令人难以置信的增长时期，我们收购了一些全国最好的企业，但我们也破坏了很多企业。

That's another story there too where we took really talented entrepreneurs that believed in the story of the use car superstores and the consolidation would initially take share from the mom and pops and they would suffer. And what I learned and I think a lot of AutoNation shareholders learned was that the skill of the entrepreneur is greater than the scale of a consolidator. And that's something I think we're still seeing to this day although we're beginning to see glimpses where scale is going to outweigh talent.
那还有另一个故事，我们在那里遇到了一些非常有才华的企业家，他们相信二手汽车超市的故事，认为整合初期会从小店中获得份额，他们会遭受损失。而我学到的经验，也是很多AutoNation股东学到的，就是企业家的技能比整合者的规模更重要。我认为这仍然是我们今天看到的情况，尽管我们开始看到规模将超过才能的迹象。

So explain that in more depth. You're saying that doesn't matter how big you are at the end of the day running a dealership, running a business, you need to have that talented entrepreneur to make sure that that ship stays afloat and thrives. Is that more or less what you're saying?
请详细解释一下。你的意思是无论一天结束时经营一家经销店，经营一家企业有多大，都需要拥有一位有才华的企业家，以确保这艘船能够继续前行并繁荣发展。这大致是你的意思吗？

Yes. I mean, I've never been a general manager but the ones that I've met and the role that they described to me is really being the orchestrator of a symphony. I mean, you've got five apartments in the franchise dealership, new cars, use cars, parts, service and body. And if you want to sell a lot of new cars, you have to be able to trade for use cars. So your use car manager has to be able to put a fair number on the trade. And for the use car, got to make money, he's got to be able to have vehicles that are frontline, ready, reconditioned at a good price. So he's got to be able to work with parts and service folks to get those vehicles' permission properly. And the parts of service guys have their own set of criteria to work with new and used folks. That's the general manager that sets the tone to retain the right people, motivate the people, do the marketing and then deal with the customers. They come in hating to negotiate but often demanding to negotiate. So it's a very challenging job.
是的。我的意思是，虽然我从未担任过总经理，但我遇到的那些人和他们向我描述的角色实际上就像一个交响乐团的指挥者。我的意思是，你在特许经销商里有五个部门，新车、二手车、零部件、维修和车身。如果你想要卖出很多新车，你必须能够用二手车进行交易。所以你的二手车经理必须能够为二手车定出一个公允的价值。而对于二手车，要想盈利，他必须能够以一个好价格准备出现场销售的车辆。所以他必须能够与零部件和维修人员合作，确保这些车辆被适当地整修。而零部件和维修人员则有他们自己的一套标准来与新车和二手车部门合作。这就是总经理设定的氛围，留住合适的人才、激励员工、做市场营销并与客户打交道。他们来的时候厌恶谈判，但经常要求谈判。所以这是一份非常具有挑战性的工作。

And I think what some consolidators have tried to do over the years is to try to add the benefits of economy is to say, well, let us try to remove some of the functions of a general manager, whether it's ordering inventory, whether it's doing the advertising, whether it's coming up with the pay plans, whether it's doing the accounting, remove some of those requirements from the general manager, and then maybe you can reduce some of the compensation that goes to the general manager. Maybe you can save some additional funds that are going. And also make it easier to hire in theory. You can simplify the role in theory. It's a bit easier to hire.
我认为多年来，一些整合商尝试的做法是试图将经济效益增加到企业中，也就是说，让我们试图减少一些总经理的职能，无论是订购库存，还是进行广告宣传，制定薪资计划，进行会计工作，减少对总经理的一些要求，然后也许就可以减少给予总经理的一些报酬。也许你可以节省一些额外的资金开支。同时，在理论上也更容易招聘。你可以简化这个角色，理论上来说更容易聘请人员。

I know AutoNation had an investor named Betty Lambert for a long time. And I think when Eddie came into the company and he looked under the hood and he realized that the general managers of a Ford store in Texas were making more than he was paying the CFO of Sears or the president of AutoZone, he was horrified and thought that we were grossly overcompensated as an industry. And I think that when you remove that talent and you try to replace it with lesser skilled people that have less authority in their business, less autonomy, the result can sometimes suffer. Where talent bleeds away from an organization, it's replaced with lesser talented people and you get a drop in new vehicle sales and that leads drop to use vehicle sales and that leads to a drop in fixed operations sometimes and the factors are not happy.
我知道AutoNation有一个叫贝蒂·兰伯特的投资者很久了。当埃迪进入公司后，他查看内部情况后发现德克萨斯州一家福特门店的总经理的薪水比他支付给西尔斯的首席财务官或AutoZone的总裁还要高，他感到非常震惊，并认为我们在行业中被过度赔偿。我认为，当你剥夺了那些才华横溢的人，并试图用技能较低、在业务中权限较少、自主权较少的人来取而代之时，结果有时会受到影响。当一家组织失去了人才，用较低的才能人员来替代，新车销量就会下降，随之而来的是二手车销量的下降，有时还会导致固定运营的下降，这些因素都不会让人满意。

You can get a, you mentioned something about a flywheel perpetuating flywheel, what was the term that used? Cardiosis ship guy? Yeah, flywheel. But what was the term used? Reinforcing flywheel. Reinforcing flywheel. You can get the opposite if you begin to lose talent out of the orchard. That's spiral. That's spiral. Okay. Where as new vehicle sales drop, the reaction is well, we got to cut advertising. We have to cut inventory. Yeah. Sales to that spiral. There's something out there that go across the street and work somewhere else.
你曾提到过一个持续推动的飞轮，用的是什么术语？卡迪奥西斯？是的，飞轮。但具体用的是什么术语？加强型飞轮。加强型飞轮。如果你开始失去人才，情况就会相反。那就是一个螺旋。螺旋。当新车销量下降时，反应就是我们必须削减广告和库存。是的，销售就陷入了一个螺旋。有些人可能会到对面街上的其他地方工作。

But anyway, I think the important part of there is there's always the discussions, you know, like, oh, is it should be cut marketing and, you know, every dealer throughout different points of the year, especially when it's slow. I think that the key there is to not think so short term. At least that's how we've done it. We've always thought of longer term, you know, you properly budget, you know, you just don't shoot from the hip. And so that way regardless if it's slow or not, you're not shutting off your brand advertising. People are going to think of you in three months when they're in the market again. And to your point, you avoid that death spiral, which a lot of dealers can fall into.
但是无论如何，我认为其中重要的部分是总有讨论的余地，你知道的，比如，哦，是应该削减营销，你知道的，不同时间点的每个经销商都会讨论这个问题，特别是在销售不景气的时候。我认为关键在于不要思考得太短期。至少我们是这样做的。我们一直考虑更长远的情况，你知道的，适当地预算，而不是凭空去决策。这样无论销售是否低迷，您都不会停止品牌广告。当顾客在三个月后再次入市时，人们会想起您的品牌。而且，正如您所说，您可以避免许多经销商可能陷入的恶性循环。

And there were some really good elements I think automation was trying to bring to the market in terms of providing customers with a higher level of transparency because they wanted people to be customers for life. I mean, when automation first started, I remember I still have it somewhere as a little credit card that's at automation passport. And it was intended for people to keep in their wallets and I use for railcar. Which is for parts, service purchasing vehicles, leasing vehicles. And it was going to create this loyalty program. The inspections that they had, the money back guarantees, those are innovations that started at car max and automation. And now our common throughout our industry is customers begin to demand those services and benefits from other retailers as well. So we'll compel you to start high partners and to get it to dealership buy sell advisory.
在尝试提供客户更高透明度方面，我认为自动化在市场上引入了一些非常好的元素，因为他们希望人们成为终身客户。我是说，当自动化刚开始时，我还记得我还把它当作一个小信用卡，叫做自动化通行证，打算让人们放在钱包里，用于购买零件、服务和租赁车辆。它将创建这个忠诚度计划。那些检查、退款保证等创新始于卡玛克斯和自动化。现在随着客户开始要求其他零售商提供这些服务和福利，这些创新已经成为我们行业普遍存在的。所以我们将强迫你开始寻找高级合作伙伴，并为获得经销店的购买和销售咨询服务。

How do we get here? So I was at automation twice in my career. Early in the 90s when we first got going and then I left because I could see it was going to be a bit of a challenge with the meltdown on the use car, superstore side. And I went back into banking and then from 04 to 08, Mike Mernie called and invited you back to head up corporate development. And I realized really corporate development for the public trade companies, corporate development, buying and selling stores is a small component of what that organization does. The biggest component are operations. They've got 200 stores they're operating in. They might buy 10 or 20 stores a year. So sometimes my efforts were challenging to bring to fruition.
我们是怎么到这里的？所以在我的职业生涯中，我曾经两次参与自动化。早在90年代初，当我们刚开始的时候，我离开了，因为我意识到二手车超市这一方面的危机将会带来一些挑战。然后我回到了银行业，从2004年到2008年，Mike Mernie打电话邀请你回来负责企业发展。我意识到对于上市公司来说，企业发展，购买和出售商店只是其组织的一小部分。最大的部分是运营。他们在经营200家商店，每年可能购买10到20家商店。所以有时候我努力的成果很难实现。

So there was a slowdown and during the great recession and I left and joined, went back to the most in banking. And I'd seen that a lot of dealers that were calling AutoNation to sell their business really didn't understand how to present it. They might be great retailers of automobiles, but they didn't know how to retail their dealership. They didn't know how to describe it. They couldn't identify the opportunities for us as a buyer. They were sometimes awkward in terms of their interactions. They were only talking to me sometimes as opposed to offering it to multiple parties at the same time. So I thought, well, maybe I can combine the best elements of what I learned in investment banking in terms of M&A with the knowledge that I have of what a dealership looks like and how it operates and what some of the opportunities and challenges are because I've been buying those stores for AutoNation. So I could use that knowledge of what meeting buyers do when they analyze an opportunity for the benefit of sellers. So I could say to sellers, let us create a package that looks just like what I used to create an AutoNation for the board of directors there. We were going to buy a dealership. So the history of the store, the adjustments to earnings, the opportunities, whether a new used fixed F&I on the expense side for us to add value, meaning the buyer could buy it and prove something, talk about the market, talk about the facility.
所以在经历了经济大衰退期间，我离开了并重新加入了银行业。我发现很多汽车经销商打电话给AutoNation想要出售他们的生意，却并不真正了解如何呈现出来。他们可能是出色的汽车零售商，但不知道如何零售他们的经销商。他们不知道如何描述它。他们无法识别我们作为买方的机会。他们在互动方面有时显得尴尬。有时他们只与我交流，而不是同时向多个买家提供。因此，我想，也许我可以将我在投资银行的合并与收购方面学到的最佳要素与我对经销商的了解以及它的运营方式以及一些机会和挑战相结合，因为我一直在为AutoNation购买这些店铺。所以我可以利用我了解买家在分析机会时所做的事情的知识，为卖家带来好处。所以我可以对卖家说，让我们创建一个和我在AutoNation为董事会所创建的东西非常相似的方案，因为我们要购买一个经销商。所以，店铺的历史，利润的调整，机会，无论是新车还是二手车还是固定费用和投资，用于增加价值的方面，意味着买家可以购买并改进某些东西，讨论市场，讨论设施。

But add to that book the secret sauce, if you will, to create competition in the sale process between a handful of the most obvious buyers. And I know when I was at AutoNation, I was the only person talking to a potential seller, I was the market. I was setting a price. And my offer was the one that they had to accept or reject. They didn't have competing offers if they were dealing exclusively with me. So when we're now representing sellers, in some cases, we'll go to just a one best buyer if our clients are really concerned about confidentiality. But typically, we're going out to 8, 10, maybe 12 of the most likely buyers, the ones that we think are most motivated. And we try to create a competitive option process that yields our clients the best value. I mean, that's kind of our tagline is maximizing the value of your life's work. So the combination of being an M&A and the combination of water retail, it seems like a natural and so forth, but having a lot of fun with it.
但是除了那本书，加上一些秘密的要素，可以说是创造了在销售过程中一些最明显的买家之间的竞争。当我在AutoNation的时候，我是唯一与潜在卖家谈判的人，我就是市场。我设定了价格。我的报价是他们必须接受或拒绝的。如果他们只跟我单独交易，他们就没有竞争的报价。所以当我们现在代表卖家时，在某些情况下，如果我们的客户非常关注保密性，我们会选择仅与一个最佳的买家进行交易。但通常情况下，我们会对最有可能的8、10甚至12个买家进行招标，这些是我们认为最有动力的人。我们试图创造一个竞争性的选择过程，以获得对我们客户最有价值的利益。我的意思是，这有点是我们的口号，即最大限度地发挥您一生工作的价值。所以合并与收购以及水产品零售的结合似乎很自然，也可带来很多乐趣。

What's typically the timeline from, you know, from listing to closing a deal, roughly speaking? It's about six months. About half of that is the manufacturer improvement process. Really?
从列举到成交的一般时间大概是多久? 大约六个月左右。其中大约有一半时间用于制造商进行改进。真的吗？

But it takes us about a month to create the offer materials to get real estate appraisals. And then it takes about a month to run a sale process, maybe a little bit less. It takes about a month to negotiate the alternative agreements and do some due diligence. And then it goes for the application and the approval process. And the factors can take a long time reviewing these documents. But it's around six months on average.
但是我们需要大约一个月的时间来创建报价材料，以获取房地产评估。然后，进行销售过程大约需要一个月的时间，可能稍微短一些。谈判替代协议和进行一些尽职调查大约需要一个月的时间。然后进行申请和批准流程。这些因素可能需要很长时间来审查这些文件。但平均而言，这需要大约六个月的时间。

Got it. Tell us about your scale. You know, I tweeted some basic stuff about, you know, you've been involved in purchase itself, 380 plus dealerships. Just give us a little bit more in depth on that. So that dates back to when I started at Audination. That time an expensive dealership might be $20 million. You know, now an expensive dealership is over 200. That's an example of the changes that I've had the pleasure of being involved in in my career. But a lot of the experience came from days at Audination when we were buying a lot of stores and I mentioned I was there twice in my career. The second time I was there, we bought, we bought 14 stores and we sold 56. And that was kind of painful because some of the stores that we were selling were the ones that I had acquired the first go around at Audination.
知道了。告诉我们一些关于你的规模的情况吧。你知道，我在推特上发布了一些基本的信息，你涉足了购买领域，拥有380多家经销商。请详细介绍一下。这追溯到我在Audination开始工作的那个时候。那时一个昂贵的经销商可能价值2000万美元。现在一个昂贵的经销商的价值超过了2亿。这就是我在职业生涯中参与的变化的一个例子。但是很多经验都来自在Audination时购买商店的日子里，我提到过我在那里工作过两次。第二次我在那里的时候，我们买了14家商店，卖掉了56家商店。这有点痛苦，因为其中一些出售的商店是我在第一次在Audination时购买的商店。

But through that experience of buying and selling a lot of stores and also all the transactions that don't close, you know, you look at a lot more than you actually will buy as a buyer. It's given me and my partner's a glimpse of how the market works. California, Texas, Florida, up in the Northeast and the Midwest, Midwest, etc. Having been involved in those transactions allows you to kind of identify quickly how a buyer will view an opportunity. Are they going to be excited? So how excited is there a challenge involved in the business and how will you explain or overcome that challenge? And then dealing with all the different types of buyers. There's a wide range of personalities out there that some people that are really quick and really linear and there's some people who take a while to get there. So you have to start with them first in a process.
通过买卖很多店铺并且所有未能成交的交易的经历，作为买家，你会看到比实际购买的更多。这给了我和我的合作伙伴一个洞悉市场运作的机会。加利福尼亚、得克萨斯、佛罗里达、东北和中西部等地。参与这些交易让你能够快速判断买家如何看待一个机会。他们会有多么兴奋？业务中有什么挑战，如何解释或克服这个挑战？还有，要与不同类型的买家打交道。市场上有各种各样的个性，有些人非常迅捷、直线思维，还有些人需要一段时间才能跟上。因此在流程中你必须先从他们开始。

What do you look for in a buyer? And what I say, what do you look for? Obviously, you know, they need to have the money and whatnot or financing teed up. But is there anything specific that's like, hey, this is, you know, a good buyer or someone I'd like to work with? Good buyers will have a strategy that defines what types of opportunities they're interested in. And they can clearly communicate that to us. So if they say, hey, I'm interested in stores in Florida and Texas, we won't show them one in Ohio. I mean, our clients care about price and they care about confidentiality and they care about speed. There's probably the three highest objectives they have. So we don't want to show a client opportunity to a buyer that's interested in a different type of asset, different geography, different price, different franchise. So if they can clearly communicate to us what they're looking for, what's, what is in their buy bucket, that's helpful for us.
你在寻找一个买家时看重什么？而且我说的，你在寻找什么？显然，你知道，他们需要有钱或者财务计划好。但是有没有什么具体的东西，比如说，嗨，这是一个好买家或者我愿意与之合作的人？好的买家会有一个明确的战略，定义了他们感兴趣的机会类型。他们能够清楚地向我们传达这一点。因此，如果他们说，嘿，我对佛罗里达和德克萨斯州的店铺有兴趣，我们就不会向他们展示俄亥俄州的店铺。我的意思是，我们的客户关心价格、保密性和速度。这可能是他们最重要的三个目标。因此，我们不希望向对不同类型的资产、不同地理位置、不同价格、不同特许经营权感兴趣的买家展示客户的机会。因此，如果他们能清楚地向我们传达他们寻找的内容，了解他们的购买范围，这对我们是有帮助的。

I think that being reliable, you know, if you say you're interested and you follow through, don't make an offer and then disappear. That's hard for us to trust you in a process. But you know, certainty of closing, certainty of capital, that's important because you, when you sign a contract with a buyer, whether it's a letter of intent or definitive agreement, you really become dependent upon them a bit to perform based on what they promised to do. And fortunately, we've, we've been able to interact with a lot of great buyers over the years and not had difficulties, but that is important to the client just feeling like they got a solid buyer.
我认为可靠性很重要，你知道，如果你说你有兴趣并且跟随行动，不要许诺后就消失。这很难让我们对你在一个过程中产生信任。但你知道，能够确认交易完成和提供资金是很重要的，因为当你与买方签订合同，无论是意向书还是最终协议，你会在一定程度上依赖于他们能够履行他们承诺的能力。幸运的是，多年来我们已经能够与很多优秀的买方进行互动，并没有遇到困难，但对于客户来说，能感到他们得到了一个可靠的买方非常重要。

What are the hottest markets right now that you have requests coming in for? What are people looking for? Florida, Texas, those states have enjoyed lots of growth. They also have zero income taxes for at the state level. So you get to keep all the proceeds from your profits there. They're also pro, pro business. There's not as much litigation in those states. The land costs are lower. Just about every metric people are, you know, the, the demogr- the growth is higher. So on every metric, just about the dealers care about those states are leading. But I would say we also see a lot of growth in the southeast, a lot of interest in the Carolina's, Georgia, Tennessee, et cetera.
目前最热门的市场是哪些？人们在寻找什么？佛罗里达、德克萨斯等州正在经历着巨大的增长，同时这些州的州级收入税为零。因此，在这些州，你能够将利润全部保留。这些州还非常支持商业发展，诉讼案件也较少。土地成本较低，以各项指标来看，这些州的增长情况非常出色。所以，几乎每个汽车经销商都关注这些州。但是我要说的是，我们也看到了东南地区的快速增长，特别是对北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、乔治亚州和田纳西州等州的兴趣很大。

The mountain states got a big lift, I think, during the COVID years, people moved out of the cities and they moved to Idaho and Colorado. So those have been desirable markets as well. You know, California is the one we talk a lot about because it's the biggest state by population. It's a challenge, right, to operate their effort stories. I have a friend and clients who's bought a lot of stores out there and his friends warned him not to buy stores in California. But he went in with his eyes open. He's got really good compliance. He's got really good HR. He's got good lawyers and he just takes that as a part of the cost of doing business. But that's the hardest thing. I think California. Yeah.
在COVID年里，我认为山区的经济有了很大的提振，人们从城市搬出去，搬到了爱达荷州和科罗拉多州。所以这些地区也成为了理想的市场。你知道，加利福尼亚是我们经常谈到的一个州，因为它人口最多。经营商业实体在那里面临挑战。我有一个朋友和客户，在那里购买了很多商店，他的朋友们告诫他不要在加利福尼亚购买商店。但他以明智的眼光进入了市场。他的合规性非常好，他有很好的人力资源管理，他有好的律师团队，他把这些当作经商成本的一部分。但我认为加利福尼亚是最困难的地方。

It's just, I mean, I'm not an appoint lawyer, but what? I hear the sigh. I just feel bad sometimes from my dealer clients out there because I feel like they're just looking for what, who's going to, when they hire somebody, they're wondering, okay, if I let you go, what are you going to sue me for? Is it going to be age? Is it going to be sex? Is it going to be weight? Yeah. They're just wondering what the claim is going to come from, not if there's going to be a claim, but what the claims be. Yeah. So other than California, I mean, are you seeing any other states where, you know, valuations are dropping for dealerships or there's just, you know, lower demand? Are you seeing that anywhere else?
这只是我的意见，我是个普通人，不是律师，但是你知道吗？我听到了叹息声。有时我会为我的经销商客户感到难过，因为我感觉他们只是在寻找，当他们雇佣某人时，他们想知道，如果我辞退你，你会以什么来起诉我？是年龄吗？是性别吗？是体重吗？是的，他们只是想知道起诉的理由是什么，而不是是否会被起诉。除了加州以外，你还看到其他任何州的经销商价格下降，或者需求减少吗？你在其他地方看到这种情况吗？

Uh huh, I think, I think it's, we've had the good fortune that COVID lifted all boats. So if I had changed orders that we had allowed all dealers around the country to earn significantly more money the last few years. And I think when I go back to what I mentioned at the beginning about the entrepreneur, the strength of the entrepreneur is that if I'm sitting in a store every day, whether I'm in California or Texas or Florida, and I see conditions starting to change, I can adapt. I can say, Hey, we're not going to run that kind of ad again, because I got sued for it or I'm not going to move forward without a training policy for new hires because I got sued for that. So they can adapt pretty quickly. And so profits that stores in California, for instance, went up significantly during the pandemic, just like they did in other places. So it's not a bad place to do business. It's still a great place to do business because of the size of the population and how much people drive. They're just greater challenges in California. And so you in some ways have to become a better dealer to thrive there.
嗯，我认为，我认为，我们很幸运的是，新冠疫情使所有经销商都得到了好处。所以，如果我更改了我们允许全国各地经销商在过去几年中大幅增加收入的订单。而且我认为，当我回到我在开始提到的创业者的力量时，创业者的优势在于，无论我是在加州、德克萨斯还是佛罗里达的店里每天坐着，当我看到情况开始变化时，我能够适应。我可以说，嘿，我们不会再做那种广告了，因为我因此被起诉，或者我不会在没有新员工培训政策的情况下进一步推进，因为我因此被起诉。所以他们能够相当快速地适应。因此，像加州的商店的利润在疫情期间显著增加，就像其他地方一样。所以做生意在那里并不是坏事。因为人口规模大，人们的驾车需求也很高。只是加州有更大的挑战。所以在某种程度上，你必须成为一个更好的经销商才能在那里茁壮成长。

You know, if I had a Toyota store and anywhere in Florida, even I could run a store like that and do pretty well, I wouldn't need the skills of 20 years of retailing. I think I could show up and still sell cars and make money. It feels like we're hitting records with dealership buy cells every single year. It just gotten hotter and hotter. And I think there was a period you can correct me from wrong here, but I think there was a period at the end of like around 2021 where people were saying, okay, well, maybe now it's going to start cooling down. Then you saw a couple more quarters of record numbers of transactions, no slowdown.
你知道吗，如果我在佛罗里达州有一家丰田门店，即使我没有二十年的零售经验，我也可以很好地经营一家门店，并赚到钱。我们似乎每年都创下新的经销商销售记录，越来越热火朝天。我认为在2021年底左右似乎有段时间人们说，好吧，也许现在会开始降温了。然后你看到又有几个季度创下了交易记录，没有放缓的迹象。

What's driving this madness? Like, is it just consolidation and the need in this technological transformation of cars to have more scale? What is it? Is it profits? Like what do you see as driving the dealership demand per M&A? I think you hit on several of them right there. It's a factor of a function of when COVID hit, initially it was a shock and it hurt dealership values because people thought, oh my goodness, we're not going to have any cars to sell. And we're going to have a hard time surviving.
是什么推动这种疯狂？就像是合并和在汽车技术转型中需要更大规模这样的因素吗？是利润吗？你认为是什么推动合并与收购对经销商需求的增长？我认为你刚刚提到了几个原因。这是一个功能的因素，当COVID-19爆发时，一开始它是个冲击，它打击了经销商的价值，因为人们认为，天哪，我们将没有任何车可以销售。而我们将难以生存下去。

And then there was all that stimulus that went out to the consumer and demand sort of exploded at the same time that supply disappeared. So Dior so last two or three years have been making a tremendous amount of profit. And that profit after taxes far exceeded whatever they could spend personally. And so looking around, I said, what are we going to do with this cash? I can't leave it at the bank because I'm getting at that time less than 1% yield on it. I don't want to buy a real estate because I don't know what the future of commercial real estate is going to be and residential real estate is already pretty expensive. So what do I want to invest in? And then people invest in what they do. They invested in dealerships. I think so that's the supply of cash is part of the demand. There were also a lot of risks that consumer or dealers were thinking about and concerned about whether it was autonomous vehicles or Tesla or subscription model. And they looked around and they said, you know what? Those risks all still exist, but they're pretty modest compared to the opportunity. So they just sort of brush those risks aside and continue to invest.
然后大量的刺激措施传达给消费者，需求迅速爆发，同时供应减少。所以迪奥在过去的两三年里取得了巨额利润。税后利润远远超过他们个人所能花费的。所以我看了看周围，问自己这些现金该怎么办？我不能把它放在银行，因为当时的收益不到1%。我也不想购买房地产，因为我不知道商业地产的未来会怎样，而住宅房地产已经相当昂贵。所以我想要投资什么呢？人们往往会投资自己所熟悉的领域。他们投资于经销商。我认为这种现金供应是需求的一部分。消费者或经销商也存在很多风险和担忧，比如自动驾驶汽车、特斯拉或订阅模式。他们环顾四周后说：你知道吗？这些风险仍然存在，但相比机遇来说，它们相当有限。于是他们选择忽略这些风险并继续投资。

That's what I saw from a lot of the private cap viewers. As for the public companies, I mentioned before that there were very few economies of scale that really helped to offset all the extra expenses that large organizations have. But I think the pandemic also advanced digital resaling, right? Where people would be comfortable buying a car for $40,000 site on C. Carvana demonstrated people who wanted to do that. And at the same time, Carvana was kind of ramping up the pandemic hit and dealers were told, you can't sell a car in a showroom. You have to sell it at the customer's house or outside the showroom. So a lot of developers, dealers quickly developed digital retailing capabilities. A lot of them off the shelf. They themselves, however they handle it. So now we have websites where customers are going and actually transacting. And so the number of units of inventory you have in your website matters. Lithio, we did an interview with Ryan DeBore last year. And I looked before the interview. I think he's got 48,000, 50,000 units on driveway deck. You should go to the local worship group in town. They might have 2,000. That would be a lot. If you go to A store, they might have 150. So all of a sudden, I think the larger dealers began to realize this shift, and it is slow, it's not going to be exploding.
这是我从很多私人资本的观察中得出的结论。至于公共公司，我之前提到过很少有规模经济能够真正帮助弥补大型组织的额外开支。但我认为，疫情也推动了数字零售的发展，对吗？人们会愿意在C网站上花费4万美元购买汽车。Carvana展示了那些想要这样做的人。与此同时，Carvana在疫情爆发时正处于扩张阶段，车商被告知不能在展厅销售汽车。你必须将它卖到客户的家里或展厅外面。因此，很多车商迅速开发了数字零售能力。很多车商使用现成的解决方案。无论他们如何处理，现在我们拥有了顾客可以访问和实际交易的网站。因此，您网站上拥有的库存单位数量很重要。Lithio，我们去年采访了Ryan DeBore。我在采访之前查看了一下，我认为他在驱动车道上拥有48,000到50,000辆车。您应该去当地的汽车经销商，他们可能只有2,000辆车。这已经很多了。如果您去A店，他们可能只有150辆车。所以突然间，我认为更大的车商开始意识到这种转变，它很缓慢，不会迅速爆发。

This shift has got to benefit from hours finally. We finally have something that the mom pops up. We end up have the local entrepreneurs, but we've got a giant website. We've got the ability to advertise maybe better, more effectively than smaller dealers can. And that over time is going to allow us to steadily take share from our competing dealers and take volume and share profitably. I want to give away the products. I think that was part of the demand that perhaps the larger groups saw, or if we're increasing their demands like, hey, this would be a challenge to be favoring larger organizations versus smaller ones. So let's get out there and grow instead of just buying back our stock or something like that.
这个转变最终终于能受益于工作时间。我们终于有了一些让妈妈们感兴趣的东西。虽然我们也有地方企业家，但我们有一个巨大的网站。我们可以更好地进行广告宣传，比较小的经销商无法做到的事情。随着时间的推移，这将使我们能够稳步地从竞争对手那里获得市场份额和利润。我想赠送产品。我认为这是大型团体所看到的需求的一部分，或者他们正在增加自己的需求，比如说，这可能是对大型组织更有利的挑战。所以让我们走出去，成长，而不仅仅是回购我们的股票之类的事情。

Who are you finding to be most of your sellers? I say over the past two years. Is it single points, single point dealerships, mom and pop organizations? What are you seeing? Well, certainly there are some smaller guys or women who say, hey, I inherited this business. You know, and it's made it great living from my family, but it's increasingly challenging. The factories are more involved than my business. They ever had them before. The cost of renovate facilities is growing and significant. And I may be at a disadvantage now because my website, my lot, and I've got 200, 300 vehicles in inventory versus 48,000. It's a driveway.com.
你找到的大部分卖家是谁？我说的是过去两年。是单点销售，单点经销商，还是小型机构？你看到了什么？嗯，当然还有一些小家族企业，他们会说，“嘿，我继承了这个生意。你知道的，它给我的家庭带来了不错的收入，但现在越来越具有挑战性了。厂商比以前更多地介入了我的生意。装修工厂的成本在不断增长，而且相当昂贵。而且现在我可能处于不利地位，因为我的网站、我的场地，以及我库存的200、300辆车比起driveway.com的48000辆车来说，差距很大。

And the values have gone up so much that they're saying, hey, I could sell this business now for enough money. I can live comfortably for the rest of my life with proceeds that have been sale today. So those are some of the folks that are exiting.
价值已经上涨了那么多，以至于有人说，嘿，我现在可以卖掉这家生意赚到足够的钱。有了今天的销售收益，我能舒舒服服地度过余生。因此，这些人中有一些人正在退出。

But on the other side of the scale, you know, we have some clients that have 10, 20 dealerships that maybe they're retirement age, maybe they're not, but their families, they're having conversations and saying, hey, we can sell this business for a billion dollars and never have to worry about what the impact of electrification or Tesla is going to be on our lives or grandchildren's lives. Right? It's this is multi generational. This is forever money. So they're saying, why take the risk in remaining in this business? Like it's sell it, form a family office, have diversified assets, have professional management, running these investment companies.
然而，在另一方面，我们还有一些客户拥有10、20家经销商，也许他们已经退休了，也许没有，但他们的家庭正在进行讨论，他们说：“嘿，我们可以出售这个企业以10亿美元的价格，永远不必担心电气化或特斯拉对我们的生活或孙辈的生活带来的影响。”对吧？这是传承百世的资金。因此，他们在问，为什么要冒险继续留在这个行业呢？还不如卖掉，创建一个家族办公室，拥有多元化资产，由专业经理人管理这些投资公司。

So we're seeing both ends of the scale. The people who are the mom and pop that a little bit worried about the future. And then the groups that, you know, we're 10, 20 stores and size that have all the capabilities of larger groups. They've got a brand, they've got inventory, they've got talent. But even some of them are saying the values are so high right now. Why not exit also? And now I am forever set financially.
所以我们正在看到两个极端。一方面，有些小开店的夫妻担心未来。另一方面，有些拥有10、20家门店的团队，他们拥有更强大的能力，拥有品牌、库存和人才。但即使其中一些人也表示，目前价值如此之高，何不退出呢？这样我就永远可以财务自由了。

It's really, do you think we've reached both sides? Do you think valuations have peaked? Like will we, will we ever have valuations? And I know this is a very, you know, no one knows the answer, but there's no doubt about it that profits in 2021. And you know, plus mine is couple of years. I mean, they've been just crazy. So like have valuations peaked. What do you think about that?
这真的太难说了，你觉得我们已经达到了双赢的局面吗? 你觉得估值已经触顶了吗？就像我们会不会再出现类似的估值呢？虽然没有人知道答案，但毫无疑问的是，2021年的利润是相当可观的。而且你知道，再过几年，利润还会更高。我是说，它们已经疯狂了。所以，你觉得估值已经触顶了吗？你对此有什么看法？

I think they peaked probably the second half of last year, but we're still seeing sales for all time record levels for certain franchises. How do you reconcile that? Well, let's say that like for instance, we represented a Toyota store, our hundreds in Toyota store in South Florida, sale of that business in June of this year. And the previous record, according to all the research we can do was was Toyota store acquired in Austin, Texas for about $206 million by one of the publicly traded companies. That was in last year in 2022. This business sold for a good bit more. It was a larger business. It was a more profitable store. What did it sell for? That's private, but it was more than the 206 million that they got it. Yeah, I tweeted about it. I thought I tweeted the amount, but I guess it was just over the 206 million. But we're going to have Mr. Brett Morgan on the pod in a couple of weeks. So maybe he'll give us more details.
我认为它们可能在去年的下半年达到了巅峰，但我们仍然看到某些特定特许经营品牌的销售创下了历史记录水平。你怎么解释这个呢？ 嗯，假设我们以托尼斯塔(Toyota)店为例，我们在南佛罗里达州有数百家托尼斯塔店，今年6月该店的销售额。根据我们所做的所有研究，前一项记录是得克萨斯州奥斯汀的托尼斯塔店，以约2.06亿美元的价格被一家上市公司收购。那是在去年2022年。这家企业售价更高，它是一家更大的企业，也是一家利润更高的店铺。它以多少的价格售出呢？这是私人的，但是价钱超过了2.06亿美元。是的，我在推特上提到了它。我记得我推过金额，但我想那只是超过了2.06亿美元。但我们将在几周后邀请布雷特·摩根先生参加我们的节目，也许他会给我们更多细节。

Yes. And honestly, they're going to have a very good return on investment on that acquisition. The business was extremely profitable.
是的。而且说实话，他们对此次收购将会有非常好的投资回报。这家企业利润非常可观。

Well, I think it was it was it was the second highest sale store for Toyota store anywhere in the country. It was right behind Longba Toyota. But the owners, they're really focused a lot on the new side. And I think the Morgan folks probably will try to sell more used and do more fixed operations. They're going to invest in the facility. So I think there's a good chance that they're going to have one of the top stores in the country for that investment. So paying a lot doesn't mean it's I want to just dig a little bit deeper into that. What are the key opportunities?
嗯，我觉得它是全国丰田店中排名第二高的销售店铺。它紧随龙巴丰田之后。但是老板们非常注重新车销售。我认为摩根公司可能会更多地销售二手车并进行更多的维修业务。他们将会对设施进行投资。所以我认为他们有很大机会成为全国顶级店铺之一。因此，高价并不意味着我想深入探讨一下。有哪些关键机会呢？

The store I tweeted about it was like a record store or a record amount paid for a Toyota store. But walk us through that business opportunity, how you view it. Where were the opportunities to bring value? How do you think about that? So we look at a lot of dealerships every year. And of course, Toyota is one of the best OEM partners. They provide their dealers with a door report, which shows how your store is doing relative to your peers. NCM also provides that data for their members and other organizations too. NCM is a dealership consulting firm. They do 20 groups. And when we were looking at that dealership, we said, wow, this is incredible and the new. But it looks to us based upon standard industry metrics that their opportunities given this amount of volume for even more sales of used vehicles, even greater fixed operations and perhaps on the F and I side as well.
我推文提到的商店就像一家唱片店或支付给丰田店的金额一样。但让我们详细了解一下这个商机，你是如何看待它的？有哪些机会可以创造价值？你是怎么考虑的？我们每年都会考察很多经销商。当然，丰田是最好的原始设备制造商之一。他们为经销商提供门店报告，显示你的店铺在同行中的业绩如何。NCM也为他们的会员和其他组织提供这些数据。NCM是一家经销商咨询公司。他们进行20个小组。当我们考察那家经销商时，我们说，哇，这太不可思议了。但从标准行业指标来看，根据他们的销售量，他们的机会似乎还有更多销售二手车、更大的固定运营，甚至可能还有理财业务。

So in the process that we ran of both we put together, we pointed those out to the handful of potential buyers that we approached with this opportunity. And you'll have to talk with the organs. When we met with them, we reviewed our projections and asked their opinions of them. And we seem to be on the same page with respect to our outlook versus their outlook, but they don't show all their cards. And maybe they think they're going to double use vehicle sales. Maybe they think they'll sell fewer cars and hire more thans. They have to reveal to you their own projections. But I think that almost any business that we see by the time we're selling it, there are some opportunities because often we're selling a business where the duo can be older and maybe he's shifted into the, I don't need to get every penny out of this business, but I don't want problems out of this business. They begin to get a little bit defensive in their operations as opposed to aggressive.
在我们运营的整个过程中，我们将两者融合在一起，并向我们接触的一小部分潜在买家介绍了这个机会，并请他们与我们交流。你必须和相关机构进行对话。当我们与他们会面时，我们回顾了我们的预测，并询问了他们对此的看法。在我们的前景和他们的前景方面，我们似乎意见一致，但他们没有展示所有的底牌。或许他们认为他们将会翻倍利用二手车销售。或许他们认为他们将销售更少的汽车并雇佣更多员工。他们必须向你透露他们自己的预测。但我认为几乎任何我们在出售时看到的企业都存在一些机会，因为通常情况下，我们正在出售的企业可能是由年纪较大的伙伴组成的，他们转变了想法，不再追求从企业中获得每一分钱，但也不想在经营中遇到问题。他们开始在运营中采取一种稍微防御性的态度，而不是积极进取。

So we're selling the business now where there are 10 rooftop roughly and the average sales effectiveness is in the 60s. So we're projecting a significant increase in sales at that dealership group for the future buyer. So a couple more questions for clarity here, right? So the north of 200 million or record sale, that's strictly referring to loose sky value, correct? Yes, that's right. That does not include the real estate. Got it. So we're talking for the audience. We're not talking about, this is for the brand. We're not talking about the real estate. We're not talking about the inventory, nothing else.
所以我们正在出售现在有大约10栋楼顶的业务，平均销售有效性在60几。所以我们预计未来买家在该经销商集团的销售将大幅增长。所以还有几个问题需要澄清，对吗？200百万以上或者创纪录的销售额，严格来说，是指屋顶的价值，对吗？是的，没错。那不包括房地产。明白了。我们在和观众讨论，我们不谈论这个品牌的房地产，也不谈论库存或其他任何东西。

So I mean, just my boggling numbers, like to your point, when you think about this, how all this has just exploded over the last two decades. Yeah, the real estate was an addition as well as the other assets. So it's back to your question. Will we ever get back here again? Is this the peak value? I suspect that we may have hit the peak. On the other hand, I'm learning about this thing called a strike in the UAW and the possibility that might be striking all shalea of the domestic at the same time. If that happens, we're going to have another inventory shortage. So these margins may not be going anywhere. We'll see. But I think this combination of circumstances we had, maybe a once in a lifetime event, for me at least. I think you're a little younger than I am. But the massive government stimulus at the same time as the supply chain shortage where profits at Cardioships tripled, I'm not sure that we'll see that again any time soon that I can predict.
所以我的意思是，仅仅是我那令人困惑的数字，就像你说的，当你考虑到这一点时，过去两十年里所有这些都是如何爆炸性增长的。是的，房地产也是增加了其他资产。所以回到你的问题。我们会再次回到这里吗？这是最高值吗？我怀疑我们可能已经达到了巅峰。另一方面，我正在了解关于UAW的罢工以及可能同时罢工所有国内页岩工人的可能性。如果发生这种情况，我们将再次面临库存短缺。所以这些利润可能不会去任何地方。我们会看到的。但我认为这些情况的结合，对我来说可能是一生中仅有的一次事件。我猜你比我年轻一点。但是在政府巨额刺激的同时，供应链短缺导致Cardioships的利润翻了两番，我不能确定我们会很快再次看到这样的情况。

But I also think that it's a perception of belief that dealership owners have today, that the profits are going to land at a higher level than they were in 2019. So we're not going to go back to where we were. It's interesting. Why do you think that's a belief or is that like a consensus based on the way you're saying that? Let's have a little debate about this interesting thing. I talked once I was representing a dealership group, the layman group in South Florida, this was about two years ago, and I was talking to one of the buyers. And the layman group had several Hyundai key stores that were profitable before the pandemic. But they were making maybe 800 hours a car in front end gross. And now they were making $3,500,000 to car. And the dealership buyer was saying, hey Alan, how long can these profits stay here? Aren't they going to go back to where we were? And I said, oh no, every manufacturer realizes better to have less supply in the market. And we're going to have higher grosses forever. And the dealership buyer said pardon me, phrase, but bullshit. He didn't really divide that at all. He thought grosses would go right back to where they were and that the profits would go right back to where they were. Now that person didn't end up making the best offer with the end of acquiring that group. But that's one perspective, that the factors will over produce. Viewers will have to cut the prices to sell the inventory, clear their logs. Our costs should go back to where they were. And we make the same amount of money before. I think that is a minority opinion now. I think people are believing that the factories have learned that they do better with fewer units. I think also the factories are having a hard time producing units as they shift towards EVs. Art of magic, we're going to have an oversupply EV's when the factories are losing money on every one.
但我也认为这是经销商业主目前持有的信念，即利润将达到比2019年更高的水平。所以我们不会回到过去的地方。这很有趣。你认为这是一种信念还是根据你的说法形成的共识？让我们就这个有趣的事情进行一点辩论。我曾经代表佛罗里达南部的Layman集团进行过一次讲话，这是大约两年前的事情，我当时正在和其中一位买家交谈。在疫情之前，Layman集团有几家盈利的现代汽车经销店。但是他们可能每辆车只能赚800美元，而现在他们每辆车能赚到350万美元。经销店的买家问我：“Alan，这些利润能维持多久？它们不会回到过去的水平吗？”我说：“哦不，每个制造商都意识到在市场上供应少一点更好。我们将永远有更高的利润。”经销店的买家说：“打扰一下，但这是胡说八道。”他完全不相信。他认为利润会恢复到之前的水平。最后，这个人没有最终提出最好的收购报价。但这是一种观点，认为工厂会过度生产。经销商将不得不降价销售库存，清理物流。我们的成本应该会回到之前的水平，我们能赚到同样多的钱。我认为这是少数派的观点。我认为人们相信工厂已经学会了少生产单位更好。我还认为工厂在转向电动汽车时生产单位会遇到困难。这样一来，我们将在工厂在每一辆电动汽车上亏损的情况下面临电动汽车供过于求的问题。

And I think also, I'm going to have a client or most recent client, it's a gentleman in his 70s. And he has wisdom that sometimes I'm in my 50s, I haven't yet gained. But he said something that people have been accustomed to making so much money in this business now. I say people, salespeople, sales managers, general managers, dealers, they're not going to be willing to go back to making the same profits they were before. They're going to find ways to keep more profits high or cost low to have a permanently higher base level of profits at these dealerships.
我也认为，我可能会有一个客户或最近的客户，他是一个70多岁的绅士。他拥有的智慧有时我这个50多岁的人还没有获得。但他说了一些人们已经习惯了在这个行业赚很多钱。我指的是销售人员、销售经理、总经理、经销商，他们不会愿意回到之前的利润水平。他们将会找到新的方法，保持利润高或成本低，以在这些经销商处保持更高的利润水平。

And I don't know what the feature is going to be anymore, maybe than you do, cardio or show guy. But when I listen to my elders talk about human nature and how people react, and again, I think about the entrepreneurial nature of this business, I see so many little levers that people are able to pull that help the franchise model to be successful year in and year out. For instance, like what? Well, thank you for a good set way.
我不再知道这一特点将是什么了，可能比你们“心血来潮”、“秀”这些家伙还要懂。但是当我听我的长辈们谈论人性以及人们的反应时，再次思考这个企业的创业性质，我看到了人们能够操纵的许多小杠杆，这些小杠杆帮助特许经营模式年复一年地取得成功。例如，像什么呢？好吧，谢谢你给了一个好的过渡方式。

So we as an organization are trying to find ways to give back to our industry. And one of the ways that I've been trying to give back personally is by providing money to Broward College to help them build out their automotive training program. Broward College is one of the largest community colleges in the country, and they have an Automotive Training Center. And I know how much money people can make at the end of the car business.
所以我们作为一个组织正在努力寻找回馈自己所在行业的方式。而我个人在尽力回馈的方式之一就是向布罗沃德学院提供资金，帮助他们扩展汽车培训项目。布罗沃德学院是全国最大的社区大学之一，他们设有一家汽车培训中心。我知道在汽车行业中人们最终能够赚到很多钱。

But the car business doesn't do a very good job attracting or advertising its career opportunities to young people, in my opinion. Nobody in my college ever thought about going to work for cardio or ship. But so we've been trying to find ways to increase the number of technicians entering the business. And what the dealers have done is saying, oh, we have a shortage of technicians. What are we going to do? We're going to do less service work. But they're going to they just raise the labor rates. So we have we have some clients in South Florida, labor rates of over $300 an hour. So fewer ROs, more value per RO, you know, that's the beauty of the carbon of this auto retail model is you can adjust based upon supply and demand.
但在我看来，汽车业对年轻人吸引或宣传其职业机会的工作并不好。在我的大学里，没有人想过去汽修店或船上工作。因此，我们一直在努力寻找增加进入这个行业的技术人员的方法。而经销商们所做的是，说我们的技术人员短缺，我们该怎么办？我们要减少服务工作量。但他们只会提高人工费率。所以我们在南佛罗里达州的一些客户，人工费率超过300美元/小时。所以就少了一些维修订单，但每个订单的价值更大了，这就是这种汽车零售模式美妙之处，可以根据供求进行调整。

Now is that sustainable forever? I'm not sure why not. That's the magic question. Yeah. Yeah. And so the question, well, if you use, you're going to replace all that service business. I'm not so sure the studies that I've seen so far, maybe in the short term, two, three year period, there may be fewer dollars spent on EVs than ice vehicles. But the data I've seen is over the long term. It's right now much different. And there's still plenty of components that EVs that break and then what happened when the battery goes bad.
现在能永续下去吗？我不确定为什么不行。这就是一个神奇的问题。是的，是的。所以问题是，如果你使用电动汽车，你会取代所有那些服务业务。对于我所见到的研究来说，我不确定在短期内，也许在两三年的时间里，对电动汽车的支出可能会比内燃机车辆少。但从我看到的数据来看，从长远来看，情况就完全不同了。电动汽车仍然有很多部件会出故障，那么当电池坏掉时会发生什么呢？

So we've not seen demand for these dealerships dissipate and the advent of all these risks. You've seen demand for dealerships increase. Partly because of the flexibility of the business model, the confirmation that people have that I think there's certain parts I disagree. But the main one where I do agree is that dealers are very creative and entrepreneurial. And I think that where that margin preservation is going to continue coming from, in my opinion, is from just streamlining the business, cutting out, quote, unquote, middlemen, I just tweeted out about, I think Dale Pollack actually put a blog post about this, about the increase in buying cars from the street.
因此，我们还没有看到这些经销商的需求减少以及所有这些风险的出现。相反，我们看到了对经销商的需求增加。部分原因是由于经营模式的灵活性，人们对此有所确认，我认为有些部分我并不同意。但是我同意的主要观点是经销商非常有创意和有企业家精神。我认为，在我看来，这种利润保护将继续通过简化业务流程，削减所谓的中间商来实现，我刚刚在推特上发了一篇关于这个问题的推文，我认为戴尔·波拉克实际上发表了一篇关于从街头购买汽车增加的博客文章。

Just dealers advertising, we will buy your car. It's increased roughly three X over the last couple of years. And I think it's these types of acts that help dealers preserve margin and improve margin ultimately, because now you're cutting out transportation to and from auction, you're cutting out auction fees, and you're arguably getting a more desirable vehicle that you can't even get an auction period. So I think that that's where a lot of creativity has come from. And we'll continue coming from.
只有经销商做广告，我们将购买你的车。它在过去几年里大约增长了三倍。而我认为正是这些行动帮助经销商保持并最终提高利润，因为现在你省去了往返拍卖的交通费用，省去了拍卖费用，而且你可能得到一辆更有吸引力的车，甚至在拍卖中都无法获得。所以我认为这是很多创意的来源，而且还将继续产生创意。

I think that the other point that you made or that a friend of yours made about getting used to certain income range and then dropping, I'm less of a, I don't buy that as much because I just think at the end of the day, it's a free market. And you know, if you have to get adjusted to making 20% less, you will if that's what the market is offering. But I do hear your point that the industry, especially throughout 2021, when all these record profits and pay plans were already set prior to the year, you have GMs running, you know, one store, two stores making $500,000, a million a year.
我认为你或者你的朋友提到的适应某个收入范围并随后减少的观点，我对此并不太认同，因为我认为归根结底，市场是自由的。如果市场给出的是比原先少20%的收入，那么你就必须适应。但我理解你的观点，尤其是在2021年，整个行业的利润和薪酬计划已在年初确定，让GM运营一个或两个店铺每年能赚50万到100万美元。

You know, I personally know some of these people, just crazy numbers. It's definitely been a crazy market to experience witness and have people that I know that, you know, have told me about, you know, their stores as well.
你知道的，我个人认识其中一些人，数字真是疯狂。这绝对是一个疯狂的市场，我经历过，亲眼所见，并且认识一些人，你知道的，他们也告诉过我关于他们的经历。

Well, and Cardio, we didn't really talk that much about technology and AI and, you know, products that don't even exist today and how they're going to increase efficiencies. I mean, it's still incredible to me, all the wholesale stuff that we see at our clients, you know, and one guy makes $600 a car, one guy loses $600 a car, you know, bought this car because they were convinced it would sell and it didn't sell, so they sell for a loss. So it feels like an opportunity way to be fixed.
嗯，有关技术和人工智能的话题我们并没有太多讨论，也没有涉及到今天尚不存在的产品以及如何提高效率的方面。对于我们在客户那里看到的所有批发商品，我仍然觉得难以置信。你知道，有的人每辆车赚600美元，而有的人每辆车亏损600美元。他们购买这辆车是因为相信能卖掉，结果没有卖掉，所以亏本出售。因此，我感觉这是一个可以解决的机会。

I think I listened to Alex Vetter on your podcast not too long ago and I think he, they bought a product that has to do with the wholesale side to help dealers understand how to mitigate those. That's one little example. The wholesale people don't talk about that much, but if you're using $600 wholesale on 1000 vehicles, not that hard to do the math right there, I figure I should avoid that wholesale loss to pick up 600 grand.
我想我不久前在你的播客上听到了Alex Vetter的讲话，他们购买了一个与批发业务有关的产品，帮助经销商了解如何减少这些损失。这只是一个小例子。批发行业人员很少谈论这个问题，但如果你在1000辆车上使用了600美元的批发价格，那么很容易就能算出，我认为我应该避免批发损失并赚取60万美元。

So I think technology has not yet had as big an impact on auto retailers as going to in the next 10 years. I think that as, as all these inventories go online, especially as vehicle supply comes back, this is going to be where I think the competition is going to start again in the business for, for auto retailing up to be a retailer, supposed to an order taker. This is where I think some of the larger guys are going to be going to take share from smaller guys because of their needs technology. They're going to brace it faster and use it more effectively. And that's my fear. If I have a fear for, for auto retail, it's the smaller dealers that don't embrace that technology and don't grow. They're going to suffer the value of their stores could go down. But the folks that have braces, the folks who grow, the folks that have great options for customers, I'm not sure that their stores are going to go down and back. We might go sideways. Maybe you won't go up. But I don't see them, you know, declining significantly.
我认为在接下来的10年里，技术对汽车零售商的影响还不如将要产生的大。我认为，随着所有这些库存上线，特别是随着车辆供应的恢复，竞争将重新开始，汽车零售业将转型为零售商而不再只是订单接收者。我认为一些大公司会利用他们对技术的需求更快地采纳技术并更有效地使用技术，从而从小公司那里夺取市场份额，这是我担心的事情。如果我对汽车零售业有一个担心的话，那就是不愿接纳技术和不愿增长的小经销商将会遭受他们的店铺价值下降的打击。但那些接纳技术、增长并为客户提供出色选择的人，我不确定他们的店铺会下降甚至回落。也许会平稳发展，也许不会上升，但我不认为它们会显著下降。

What are the most common areas of opportunity or just opportunities that buyers are looking for like is technology that number one or is it other things right now? What are you seeing?
买家最常关注的机会领域是什么？是技术相关领域吗，或者还有其他方面？请问你们有何发现？

Oh, the consolidators are constantly talking with the tech suppliers, right? The tech stack to figure out, you know, do you have a better CRM or what's the most effective way to advertise myself and my products? I'm not the expert in that world. So I won't comment.
啊，那些整合商是在与技术供应商不断交流，对吧？他们要搞清楚的是，有没有更好的客户关系管理系统(CRM)，或者最有效的方式来进行产品推广？我不是那个领域的专家，所以我不会发表评论。

I would say in terms of people requiring dealerships, what they're looking for is it depends upon the buyer. For some folks, they're looking for turnaround opportunities, right? And they want to have a delicious performing. So I mentioned this dealership group that's got sales on the 60% range. We're going to get a higher multiple for that business than we would for somebody who's at 120% sales effectiveness because they can add more value.
就人们购买汽车经销商的需求而言，我认为取决于买家的要求。对于某些人来说，他们寻求的是投资回报机会，并且希望实现良好的业绩。所以我提到的那些销售额在60%范围内的经销商群体，我们将为此类企业获得更高的倍数，而对于销售效率达到120%的经销商，我们将给予更多的价值。

Define sales effectiveness. That's a measurement that the factory's put out that say, hey, we expect you to sell 1000 cars in your ARR, your area of responsibility based upon registration data and how we perform in other markets, but you're only selling 600. So you're not selling as many cars as we would expect. It's not always a correct measurement. Maybe there's some nuances about the geography where the area is not measured properly. But in general, it's a way for a factory to give a report card to a dealer. You're not selling enough cars. Another one is on customer satisfaction with the ratings that get back to customer. So that's one thing.
销售效果是指一个工厂提出的一个衡量标准，告诉销售员，我们希望你能够根据注册数据和其他市场表现，在你负责的区域内销售1000辆汽车，但你只卖出了600辆。所以你的销量没有达到我们的期望。这并不总是一个正确的衡量标准。也许在地理方面有一些细微差异，导致区域没有被正确地测量。但总体而言，这是工厂给经销商一个成绩单的方式，告诉他们你的销量不足。另一个衡量标准是顾客满意度，根据得到的评级来评估顾客对产品的满意程度。以上就是这个问题的意思。

Some people want to have growth opportunities. Some people want to have a well-run store because they don't have a lot of new management or energy to bring in to fix something. They want to have something that's already running well. I would say that's a lot of the public companies. They want to buy something that's running well and then plug in their own technology.
有些人想要有成长机会。有些人想要一个运作良好的商店，因为他们没有太多新的管理经验或精力去解决问题。他们想要拥有一个已经运营良好的东西。我觉得这就是很多上市公司的想法。他们想要购买一个运营良好的企业，然后投入自己的技术。

Some people, it's brand that matters. Toyota has been just so well-run the last few years during the pandemic. Almost every dealer is looking to add a Toyota business to their portfolio if they can afford it. So we see the demand for franchises like Toyota, Lexus, and some of the other Subaru delivery stores like Mercedes and PMVib still very high. But also brands that used to be, I'll call them a discount brand, like a Hyundai or Kia before the pandemic hit, they had started to bring in some of the nice product.
有些人注重的是品牌。在疫情期间，丰田一直管理得很好。几乎每个经销商都希望能够加入丰田的业务，只要他们负担得起。因此，我们看到像丰田、雷克萨斯以及一些其他斯巴鲁经销商（如梅赛德斯和PMVib）的加盟需求仍然非常高。但是还有一些过去被称为折扣品牌的品牌，比如疫情爆发之前的现代或起亚，它们开始引入了一些好的产品。

Unbelievable how they've grown. What's that? I said it's unbelievable how they've grown. Incredible. They've done a fantastic job on the product side, on the marketing side. The value of a Kia store today or Hyundai store today is probably at least five times what it used to be. If average list guy value is almost tripled, Hyundai Kia has probably gone up five times, maybe more. So what are these selling for nowadays? Hyundai Kia? Well, we have them in our latest report. We're about to fit out our second quarter report, but we've moved Hyundai Kia twice in the last six months. They still trade below Honda and Toyota in terms of the multiple of earnings, but not by much.
真不可思议他们的发展如此迅猛。那是什么？我说不可思议他们的发展如此迅猛。太不可思议了。在产品和营销方面，他们做得非常棒。如今，起亚和现代汽车的店铺价值可能至少是以前的五倍。如果平均列出的价格已经增长了近三倍，那么现代汽车和起亚汽车可能已经增长了五倍，甚至更多。那么如今这些车型卖多少钱呢？现代汽车和起亚汽车呢？好吧，我们在最近的报告中有相关数据。我们正准备发布我们的第二季度报告，但在过去的六个月里，我们已经两次调整了现代汽车和起亚汽车的价格。虽然在收益倍数方面仍然低于本田和丰田，但差距不大。

Wow. Part of the challenge with Hyundai and Kia is they do have facility programs. Hyundai has been pretty tough on their dealers and demanding to building Kia as well. But if we have Honda trading on average at 67 times, Kia, we have one and a half to five and a half, Hyundai about the same. So still a discount to the larger brands, but maybe not for long. With Subaru is built up really being the same as Honda in the highs of buyers, in our opinion. And for the audience listening, you're saying the multiple is your listing. It's on net income, right? Well, we'll call it pre-tax income, but it's a pre-tax income.
哇。与现代和起亚的挑战之一就是它们确实拥有设施计划。现代对其经销商要求很高，并且对起亚有着同等的严苛要求。但是如果我们看到本田的平均交易次数为67倍，那么起亚的交易次数是1.5倍至5.5倍，而现代相差不大。因此，它们仍然比规模更大的品牌打折销售，但这种情况可能不会持续太久。根据我们的观点，在买家的高点上，斯巴鲁的表现与本田基本相当。听众朋友们，您所说的倍数是指净利润吗？我们可以称之为税前收入，但实际上是税前收入。

And of course, the second question is like, well, what year income are we talking about during that? That's what I wanted to get to. Let's talk about that.
当然，第二个问题就是，我们谈论的是哪一年的收入呢？这是我想要探讨的。让我们谈论一下这个。

How are we valuing these dealerships? So I'll give you a little history, Cardio or show guy. We went back in time about a month ago, a couple months ago, we said, Hey, it's been tricky valuing stores. We go back to how we value the businesses that we sold in 2019. They hired us to do evaluation. We gave them evaluation. They sold us business. How do we do? And we usually give folks a range. We think blue sky offers are going to come between 20 and 25 money, for instance. So we'll way back at the stores that we sold in 2019. The offers that our clients accepted were at 90% 98% of the midpoint of the range we gave them. So we were really good in 2019 in late 2018, in value of stores, the pandemic hit and it scrambled things. The first six months of the year, people were scared and then things started to pick up really strongly in the last part of the year.
我们如何评估这些经销商的价值？所以我来给你一点历史，有关心脏病作家或秀场人士。大约一个月前，几个月前，我们说，嘿，估值一直很棘手。我们回头看看我们如何评估2019年所卖的企业。他们雇我们来做评估。我们给了他们评估。他们卖给了我们业务。我们做得怎么样？通常情况下，我们给人们一个范围。我们认为天空蓝的报价大概在20到25万之间。所以我们又回顾了一下2019年销售的商店。我们的客户接受的报价达到了我们给出范围中点的90%至98%。所以2019年我们在商店价值方面做得非常好，在2018年末，疫情爆发，事情变得一团糟。今年的前六个月，人们都很害怕，然后后半年情况开始迅速好转。

So in that year, the clients accepted offers over 86% of the midpoint of the range that we've given them. Now remember, a lot of the evaluations we've done were pre-COVID. So there were before people got scared. In 2020, the offers people accepted were 22% above the midpoint of our range. So probably above the top of our range. In 2022, there were 26% higher than the midpoint of our range. 2023 were still running the math. But the reason why I share that data is to show that before the pandemic, we were really good at predicting value. It's been a lot more challenging since then.
所以在那一年，客户接受了我们给予的范围中点的86%以上的报价。请记住，我们做出的许多评估都是在COVID疫情之前进行的。所以那些评估都是在人们感到恐慌之前完成的。在2020年，人们接受的报价超过了我们范围的中点22%。所以可能是超过了我们范围的上限。在2022年，这一比例上升到了26%。2023年我们还在计算中。但我分享这些数据的原因是为了展示在疫情之前，我们对于价值的预测非常准确。自那时以来，这变得更加具有挑战性。

So now when we reverse engineer how the offers are coming, people are looking at how they are not averaging more than one period of earnings. So not just taking the last 12 months and putting a seven multiple on and paying typically. They're probably trying to take an average of maybe 2020 in the last 12 months, maybe an average of three or four periods. I think as we go further away from pandemic times, 2019 might come back into the average as well. We can't give away all our secret sauce at this point on this call, Audio Ship Guy, but I'll make a deal with you. If you'll reveal your true identity, we'll give up the secret sauce.
现在，当我们逆向工程这些报价的方式时，人们正在关注它们不仅仅是在最近的12个月内进行平均，并按通常情况下进行7倍的支付。他们可能试图计算2020年和最近12个月的平均值，可能还有三到四个期间的平均值。我认为随着我们远离疫情时期，2019年也可能成为平均数的一部分。在这次通话中，我们不能透露所有的秘密配方，音频装船先生，但我可以与您做个交易。如果您透露真实身份，我们就会放弃秘密配方。

Oh, look at that. What's in it for me? The secret sauce to share with your audience.
哦，看看那个。对我有什么好处呢？这是与你的观众分享的秘密酱汁。

Yeah, right. But so what are you seeing like for the majority of deals right now? What is the rough average or what periods are they using last two years, last three years, last 12 months? What are you really seeing out there as the consensus, would you say? I know it's not all the same, but yeah.
是的，没错。但现在对于大部分交易，你看到的情况怎样呢？大致平均数是多少，或者它们使用了最近两年、三年或十二个月的哪个时期进行评估？你可以说一下在业界你真正看到的共识吗？我知道不同的情况不尽相同，但是嗯。

Well, earnings are coming down significantly. I think the publics are reporting on the last week and they'll be reporting this week too. So far, I think we've seen between zero and a 30% decline in their profits for the year compared to the same period last year. But that hasn't scared buyers. I think profits tripled. Blue Sky values doubled. They doubled versus tripled because buyers knew that they wouldn't remain elevated forever. They would have to come back down. Yet we're seeing the publics. The publics are all trading near all time highs, if not all time highs. Yeah. So their goodwill is high. So therefore, why wouldn't the private dealership value remain? In fact, I think that's it.
嗯，收益大幅下降。我认为公众会报道上周的情况，而且他们也会报道本周的情况。到目前为止，我认为与去年同期相比，他们的利润已经下降了0%到30%。但这并没有吓跑买家。我认为利润翻了一番。蓝天价值翻了一倍。它们翻了一倍而不是翻了三倍，因为买家知道它们不会永远保持上升状态。它们必须回落。但我们正在看到公众们。公众们的交易价格接近历史最高水平，如果不是历史最高水平的话。是的，他们的声誉很高。因此，为什么私人经销商的价值不会保持呢？事实上，我认为就是这样。

To be clear, when I say the publics, again, for audience listening, I'm just talking about the publicly traded auto dealer groups. You have the auto nations, Penske's, Lithia's, Asbury Group 1, Yada Yada Yada. They're all trading just exorbitant market caps relative to 2019. You look at, I think one follower left a comment that auto nation is up roughly 300% from its COVID low, bear that S&P 500 is up 55%. I'm sure someone who's listening could fact check this, but still pretty remarkable. I mean, 6X difference.
请明确，当我提到公众时，我是指公开上市的汽车经销商集团。比如，你有Auto Nations、Penske、Lithia、Asbury Group 1等等。相对于2019年，它们的市值都飞涨了不少。有一位跟随者留言说，Auto Nations从新冠低点上涨了大约300%，而标普500指数只上涨了55%。听众们可以事实核对一下，但仍然非常引人注目。我指的是，这相当于涨了6倍之多。

So the board of auto nation and their latest earnings call, I think they share that the board has said, stop buying back stock. It's been your cap on doing something else, which in their business is, I think, going to mean acquisitions. So that cap, it used to go back to purchasing shares during the pandemic when they thought maybe their share price was depressed. It's going to go into the market for M&A to acquire dealerships. So just taking people with their word, I would expect they would be buying more stores than the future than they have in the past.
所以，根据Auto Nation公司董事会和最新的盈利电话会议，我认为他们表明董事会决定停止回购股票。这就意味着他们将有机会做其他事情，而在他们的业务中，我认为这将意味着进行收购。在过去，他们曾打算购买股票，因为他们认为股价可能被低估了，但现在这个限制将被用于市场上进行并购以收购经销商。所以，根据他们的承诺，我预计他们将在未来购买更多的商店。

So going back to the supply demand, a balance in the market, even as earnings come down, at the dealerships, we're not seeing reduction in demand for the stores. And so we expect dealership values will continue to be elevated. Certainly this year, I mean, the offers, I mentioned the Al-Hudgerton store that we sold in June, that was the record price ever for any dealership, any franchise. In January of this year, we sold a Stylantis dealership for the highest value for that franchise. I think later on this year, we'll be announcing another record sale for a different franchise. So we're still seeing really strong prices being paid for these stores because the profits are still-
回到供需方面的问题，即使销售额下降了，但我们并没有看到对实体店的需求减少，市场上依然达到了平衡。因此，我们预计实体店的价值将继续上升。特别是今年，由于盈利依然可观，我们卖出的Al-Hudgerton店在六月创下了任何实体店、特许经营权的历史最高价。今年一月，我们以最高价格出售了一家Stylantis实体店的特许经营权。我认为今年晚些时候，我们将会公布另一家不同特许经营权的创纪录销售。因为利润依然稳定，所以我们仍然看到这些店铺被以非常高的价格出售。

Give us a hint, where's this potential record sale? I think it'll be in the Southeast and it'll be on the luxury side until it has. So I don't want to jinx it. But I would expect we'd see this with other franchises as well. Subaru, for instance, has a brand that's been growing very strongly. I would expect we'd see it on the Hyundai side, on the Kia side, where the cash flows have grown significantly in those brands in the last three, four years. And somebody's going to really step out and say, okay, I got a store, Hyundai store, it's making $39 a year, $49 a year. I'm going to sell it for hundreds of millions of dollars. And that'll happen.
给我们一点提示，这个潜在的销售记录在哪里？我认为它会在东南部，而且会属于奢侈品类，直到目前为止一直是这样。所以我不想给它带来厄运。但我预计我们也会在其他特许经营机构看到这种情况。例如，斯巴鲁已经建立起一个非常强劲的品牌。我认为我们还会在现代和起亚两个品牌上看到类似情况，这些品牌的现金流在过去的三四年里增长了很多。某人将会真正跳出来说，好吧，我有家现代店，每年赚39亿美元，49亿美元。我要以数亿美元的价格出售它。然后这种情况就会发生。

What brands or brands are dealers staying away from? I mean, what do you just bearish on? Talk to me. I mean, there's some brands. You have clients across all brands, but I think I definitely have my suspicions here.
经销商们避之不及的是哪些品牌或者品牌？我的意思是，你对哪些品牌感到看淡？和我聊聊吧。我的意思是，有一些品牌。你客户遍布各大品牌，但我确实对某些品牌持怀疑态度。

Well, I think that four is then frustrating for its dealer base. If you've been a Ford dealer, might have had the store for generations. And you have, I think for some dealers, I feel like Mr. Farley's trying to become Elon Musk. We're just going to throw away the old business model and adopt EVs and split in the company to three parts and have decided to run the EV side. You know, okay, if you're a guy that makes 100% of your income selling nice vehicles, I'm not sure that makes you feel great. And when they said, hey, you're going to have to invest 1.0 million seven per store to qualify to even get EVs shipped to your store, that's a significant burden for almost every Ford dealer because the average Ford store is pretty small. So maybe 500 new units a year. So they invest a million seven. How many EVs will you get? Well, what a margin get, the payback period is terrible. And yet still a lot of dealers are trying to do it.
嗯，我认为对于福特的经销商基础来说，这四两是令人沮丧的。如果你是一名福特经销商，可能已经有几代人经营这家店。而对于某些经销商来说，我觉得法利先生想要成为埃隆·马斯克。我们将摒弃旧的商业模式，采纳电动汽车，并将公司分为三个部分，并决定经营电动车领域。你知道，如果你是一个靠销售高档汽车赚取100%收入的人，我不确定这会让你感到很好。当他们说，嘿，你需要投资1.07百万美元才能有资格将电动汽车运送到你的店铺，对于几乎每一家福特经销商来说，这是一个重大负担，因为平均福特店铺规模相当小，可能一年只卖500辆新汽车。那么他们投资1.07百万美元能得到多少电动汽车？利润率又如何？回本期非常糟糕。然而仍然有很多经销商试图去做这件事。

And then the math on this sometimes, it gets a little comical. For instance, we had a client in the upper Midwest that called the city and said, hey, I want to put in these EV charge stations. Can you have enough capacity? I said, no, you don't have enough capacity. And we can't bring you any capacity for just more, more electricity. It couldn't bring it to a store. So he bought the chargers from the Ford supplier. He installed them. He built a wall, a six foot wall on two sides. And then behind the wall, he installed a diesel generator that powered the EV charger.
然后这其中的数学有时候变得有点滑稽。例如，我们有一个来自美国中西部的客户给城市打电话说，嘿，我想安装这些电动车充电桩，你们有足够的容量吗？我说，不，你们没有足够的容量。而且我们也无法给你们带来更多的电力容量。我们不能为一个商店增加电力容量。所以他从福特供应商那里购买了充电器。他安装了充电器并在两边建了一面六英尺高的墙。然后在墙后面，他安装了一台柴油发电机来为充电器供电。

Fish, fish, not just saying, like, I don't think this is the plan to have diesel power fueling these green vehicles. But he had to do that in order to be a come out dealer for EVs. I was in the live Twitter space, it's like a live podcast on Twitter. And Elon brought me up to speak. And it was Elon, Jim Farley, and myself, and another gentleman named Farzad. And I asked Jim straight up, I said, Jim, the reality is you're talking about being a good partner to your dealers. I get questions all the time about your strategy. And I'm not here to comment on whether it's the right strategy, the wrong strategy. I think I have some opinions on how I would navigate any science project within a company, especially a public company, probably makes sense to outsource as much of it as possible. We could talk about that later. But the point is, I asked him, I said, Jim, you're making all these statements, but the valuations for Ford's stores have just continued declining. And I mentioned some specific stats. And he kind of dodged a question. It's all my Twitter. I mean, you could listen to this, but it was interesting. He's just sort of dodged a question.
鱼鱼，不仅仅是在说，我不认为使用柴油动力来为这些绿色车辆加油是计划中的。但为了成为电动汽车经销商，他不得不这么做。我当时在直播的Twitter空间里，类似于Twitter上的直播播客。埃隆把我请上来发言。参与对话的有埃隆、吉姆·法利和我自己，还有一个名叫法扎德的先生。我直截了当地问吉姆，我说，吉姆，事实是你谈论成为经销商的良好合作伙伴，我经常收到有关你的战略的问题。我不在这里评论它是正确的还是错误的战略。我对如何在公司内部进行任何科学项目的导航有一些看法，尤其是对于一家上市公司，尽可能地外包可能是有意义的。我们可以以后再谈论这个。但重点是，我问他，我说，吉姆，你说了这么多声明，但是福特汽车店的估值却一直在下降。我提到了一些具体的统计数据。他有点回避了这个问题。我分享了这一切在我的Twitter上。你可以去听听，很有趣的。他有点回避这个问题。

But anyways, it seems like dealers are definitely sharing that sentiment that their transition to EVs, the way it's being done, it feels like they're kind of, you know, the dealer who's their core customer is they're just not doing it the right way. That's been hard. And I think still, Annas has also been a challenge the last year or so. The profits of those stores were really strong. Was an excellent franchise. Their sales were growing. They were one of the few domestic, the only domestic, they really had good supply. They did great jobs on their dealers.
然而，无论如何，看起来经销商绝对在分享一种观点，即他们转型到电动车的方式，感觉他们有点没有做对核心客户——经销商。这是困难的。而且，我认为在过去的一年左右，安娜斯也是一个挑战。这些商店的利润非常强劲。它是一个出色的特许经营。他们的销售额正在增长。他们是为数不多的国内企业，也是唯一一家真正拥有充足供应的国内企业。他们在经销商方面做得非常出色。

But I think they just, the words of one deal, they got too greedy. They raised their wholesale prices significantly to dealers, made them very hard to sell. They overproduced. And so the profits at Solanus dealers started to slow down the second half of last year. And I don't know if they really fixed the problem the first half of this year. And then they also made that announcement where if you're in a car state, they're not going to shift you. I think the E-Geeps, the Wranglers like to have the EV, the Iberids. And if you're in non-carved states, they're not going to ship you the EV-Geeps. So I don't know how they're going to compete with other factories that have ice and EVs on the lots. So that, that's got to get fixed.
但是我认为，他们只是一个协议的言辞，他们变得太贪婪了。他们将批发价格大幅提高给经销商，使他们很难销售。他们产量过剩。所以去年下半年，Solanus 经销商的利润开始放缓。我不知道他们在今年上半年是否真正解决了问题。然后他们还宣布，如果你在一个汽车州，他们不会给你转运。我认为 E-Geeps、Wranglers 喜欢有电动汽车、混合动力的车型。如果你不在汽车州，他们也不会给你运送电动汽车。所以我不知道他们要如何与其他有内燃机汽车和电动汽车库存的工厂竞争。这个问题必须解决。

That could really impair. What do you think when it comes to electrification EVs Tesla, what do you think are going to be the biggest losers long term? What brands? I have a feeling that the government will have to retract the requirements for EV penetration in California and every other state. And just other people have done a great job showing that there's just not the capacity to generate electricity. There's not the capacity to distribute it. And consumers can't afford these vehicles very easily either. So I'm not sure there's going to be as significant a shift as maybe you'd expect otherwise.
这可能会造成严重损害。当涉及到电气化、电动车和特斯拉时，你认为长期来看会有哪些主要的输家？哪些品牌会受到影响？我有一种感觉，加利福尼亚州和其他州政府将不得不撤回对电动车普及的要求。而且其他人已经表明，发电能力不足，配电能力也不足。消费者也很难负担得起这些车辆。所以我不确定会有像你预期的那样显著的转变。

Another quote I heard from Alex Vetter on your, on that podcast was that he can see, he can predict the market based upon what the search is. I think the EV sales are at 6%, 7% in this country. EV search is at 3%. Recessively the people are buying EVs, maybe because there's not much else to buy and not really, you know, demanding that product in the same level as people and the factories are hoping.
我在你们的那个播客中听到了亚历克斯·维特尔的另一句话，他说他可以根据搜索情况来预测市场。我认为这个国家的电动汽车销售占据6％到7％的比例，而电动汽车的搜索占比只有3％。可能是因为人们购买电动汽车的需求并不像人们和工厂所希望的那样高，或许也是因为其他可购买的产品并不多。

So the laws are to get the subsidies in the US, you have to build the batteries here, right? So Tesla's going to continue to win, right? They're going to take share. They're not that many other battery plants that exist in the US. So I think everybody will just share a Tesla for a while until the battery capacity comes up or they change the rules.
所以，为了获得美国的补贴，你必须在这里建造电池，对吗？所以特斯拉将继续胜出，对吗？美国几乎没有其他电池工厂存在。所以我认为在电池产能增加或规则改变之前，大家都只能共用一辆特斯拉。

Do you have any dealers that are specifically very bullish on the EV segment, any specific brands, because it seems like the opinion you're shared there and just no shit is, I do hear it pretty often, but I'm curious to know if there's any specific brands or dealers that are giving you like a different opinion like, hey, I'm very bullish on this. Here's how I think we're going to benefit from electrification.
您是否有任何特别看好电动车领域的经销商或特定品牌？因为您分享的观点听起来很确定，我经常听到类似的观点，但我想知道是否有哪些特定品牌或经销商给您带来了不同的观点，例如：“嘿，我对此非常看好。这是我认为我们将从电动化中获益的方式。”

So I would encourage you to maybe talk to Jeff Pohanka from he's currently chair of NADA and has one of the largest dealership groups located in Virginia and Maryland area. He is a big proponent for understanding EVs and making sure that their group can sell EVs, explain them to customer service them. I think he's on his third or fourth EV and self- ola resulting in a fixed price step down onto a Chain. The pump will still get more fees. It's a safety thing too.
所以我建议你可能与杰夫·波汉卡（Jeff Pohanka）交谈，他是目前NADA的主席，拥有位于弗吉尼亚和马里兰地区的最大汽车经销商集团之一。他非常支持理解电动汽车并确保他们的集团能够销售电动汽车，向顾客解释并为他们提供售后服务。我想他已经使用了第三或第四辆电动汽车并在自己的车库里安装了一个固定价格的充电桩。这也是为了安全考虑。

Like this dealer, another dealer, I signed out the Ford, the same Ford dealer, built the charging system with a diesel generator. Yeah. Yeah. He said he'd gotten in five Ford lighting, he'd sold five and they'd all come back. And he said, you know, customers in his area, they want to, they want to take the snow and be able to the lake. And they got it there, but they couldn't get back. Didn't have the range to do a round trip. Wow. And so they had, they said, now we've learned that we don't sell these as pickups. We sell these as a family sport utility bit. It's for local use only. It's not for towing vehicles. It might have 10,000 pounds of pulling. You can all up, you can't haul it very far. And he said, they will not take a Ford lightning and trade. They're afraid, what is the resell bag of this truck? Is Ford going to cut the wholesale price? Is that going to gut the value of my inventory? So the launch of the EV pickup trucks so far has been limited, but I've not heard positive experiences from the consumers in general. So if that continues, I don't see how Ford, Chevrolet, GMC, Stylanus really get harmed that much. If EVs are just not a good fit for pickups.
就像这家销售商一样，我在另一家销售商那里签了一份购买福特车的合同，同样是福特的销售商，他们用柴油发电机建造了充电系统。是的，是的，他说他收到了五辆福特闪电车，他卖掉了五辆，所有的车都退回了。他说，你知道的，在他所在地区，客户们想要在雪地和湖边自由穿行。他们可以到那里，但回不来。它们的续航里程不够，无法来回行驶。哇哦。所以他们说，我们现在明白了，我们不把这些当作皮卡销售。我们把它们当作家庭运动型多功能车销售。只适合在本地使用，不能用于拖车。尽管它们可能拖曳10,000磅，但不能拉得太远。他说，他们不会接受福特闪电车进行置换。他们担心，这辆卡车的二手交易价格会如何？福特会降低批发价吗？这会严重影响我的库存价值吗？目前，电动皮卡的推出受到了很大的限制，但我并没有听到消费者普遍有积极的使用体验。所以如果这种情况继续下去，我看不出福特、雪佛兰、GMC和斯泰雷拉尼斯会受到多大的损害，如果电动车不适合用于皮卡的话。

So you mentioned experience just for consumers listening. I mean, you see a lot of dealerships changing hands. Which brands do you think offer the best experience for consumers? Best brands for consumers. I mean, the brands that are taking share, you have to say they have a good experience. Although I do hear complaints about Tesla, Tesla's taken a tremendous amount of share, particularly from, I would say luxury brands. But when the vehicles break, it's a tough experience, right? Toyota and Maxis are legendary for their customer service, particularly Lexus. That's not change. They still do an excellent job taking care of customers, providing owners. The German luxury brands are the same way. Those brands simply have a little higher loyalty than others. I would say from residual value, the Hyundai's and the Kia world Subaru, obviously to a great job with their customers. Well, it's Subaru is off the charts from a marketing standpoint with Tom Dall and his staff did there to create kind of a hard-warming, lovable brand out of Subaru products, which are, they're not the sexiest cars out there, right? But they somehow created the affection of love around Subaru. So that's brilliance. So I would say some of the brands that I'd set my hat to, I'd do a great job on the mindset of consumers.
所以你提到了仅针对消费者的体验。我的意思是，你可以看到很多经销商更迭。你认为哪些品牌为消费者提供了最好的体验？最适合消费者的品牌。我的意思是，那些正在占据市场份额的品牌，你必须承认他们的体验很好。虽然我听到了关于特斯拉的抱怨，但特斯拉却占据了大量的市场份额，特别是从豪华品牌的市场份额中。但是当汽车出故障时，这将是一次艰难的体验，对吗？丰田和马自达以其客户服务而闻名，尤其是雷克萨斯。这一点没有改变。他们仍然在很好地照顾顾客，提供服务给车主。德国的豪华品牌也是如此。这些品牌相对于其他品牌而言，忠诚度稍高一些。从残值的角度来看，现代和起亚以及斯巴鲁在对待客户方面都做得非常好。呃，斯巴鲁在市场营销上的表现非常出色，汤姆·戴尔和他的团队创造了一种让人温暖、可爱的斯巴鲁品牌形象，尽管斯巴鲁并不是最吸引人的汽车品牌，但他们成功地围绕斯巴鲁创造了深厚的情感。这是非常出色的。所以我可以说，我对一些品牌对消费者心理状态的把握非常赞赏。

Zooming out, do you think that the next, let's say the next decade, do you think that we're going to continue seeing an active and just a hot deal shit buy, sell market like we've seen over the past decade? Yes, I think we will because in the past, it might have been 300 stores that traded every year. I think we'll probably land in the 400s going forward. So that's roughly a third more stores per year trading hands. And I think it's because the stores have become so valuable in some ways, they're harder transition to the next generation.
放大视角来看，你认为在接下来的十年里，我们会继续看到一个活跃而热门的交易市场，就像过去十年我们所见到的那样吗？是的，我认为会，因为过去可能每年有300家店铺交易。我认为未来可能会增加到400家左右。所以每年将多出大约三分之一的店铺交易。我认为这是因为这些店铺在某种程度上变得非常有价值，对于下一代来说更难转移。

Let's say if- What do you mean? Well, let's say there's a dad to do it almost all men, for some reason. But let's say there's a dad that has a dealership to Toyota store and it's worth 50 million, 100 million, 200 million dollars. And he has a son and a daughter. And let's say the daughter wants to be the dealer and the son doesn't. How is he going to transition that asset to his daughter? Is he going to give a 200 million dollar loan to the daughter? Is she going to be willing to take on that kind of a loan? You know, the business might not be good forever. Maybe there's a competitor that comes and maybe who knows what could happen, right?
假设这样说吧——你是什么意思？好吧，假设几乎所有男性都想做的是成为一个爸爸，出于某种原因。但假设有一个爸爸拥有一家丰田汽车店，价值5000万、1亿或2亿美元。他有一个儿子和一个女儿。假设女儿想要接手这家经销商，而儿子不想。那么他该如何转让这个资产给女儿呢？他会给女儿提供2亿美元的贷款吗？她愿意承担这样的贷款吗？毕竟生意未必永远好做。也许会出现竞争对手，谁知道会发生什么事呢，对吗？

So I think in a case like that where the business gets to be so valuable, the family might just decide, let's just get a silo of cash, sell this asset and get cash and then we can figure out how to divide the cash more easily going forward. I'd ever thought about it like that, but I think it makes a ton of sense. I mean, we're not talking about a couple million anymore. We're talking about tens, hundreds in some cases to your point. I think if you do the math, you say, hey, if I can sell my business for 100, 200, 300 million dollars, a billion dollars, put that on the market at 5%, 7%, $1.5 million. Whatever the market's going to yield and let that compound for 20 years, your family's going to be a billionaire even at the bottom end of that. So you could do that or you could say in a car business. So I think for a lot of people that have one store and multiple family members, it's hard to transition that business to more valuable it gets.
所以我认为在像这样的情况下，当企业变得如此有价值时，家族可能会决定，让我们只拿现金，卖掉这个资产，然后我们可以更容易地分配现金以后再做打算。我以前从没有这样想过，但是我觉得这样做有很多道理。我的意思是，我们不再只谈论几百万了。我们在谈论数十亿，甚至可能达到数百亿。我觉得如果你算一下，你会说：嘿，如果我能以1亿、2亿、3亿、甚至10亿美元的价格出售我的企业，在市场上以5%、7%甚至1.5万美元的价格出售，然后让它在20年内复利，你的家族最低也会成为亿万富翁。所以你可以这样做，或者你可以考虑一下汽车业务。所以我认为对于很多只有一个店铺和多个家庭成员的人来说，将企业转型成价值更高是困难的。

And I think also a lot of like we had a client, not everyone loves to be the car business. We had a client, we had seven stores, dad was in his 90s, the kids run their 50s. They weren't so all the dad didn't. Kids prevailed, sold the business. I talked to one of the kids, one of my clients, a couple months later. And I'd seen them, a photograph of him and when I saw him as a card, he was wearing a blue shirt and a blue blazer and hair cut short. He looked like he would be going out on the lawn and deal with customers. And his look had totally changed. He had kind of slicked back here, he was wearing a black leather jacket. He just looked happy and youthful and I said, what are you doing? He goes, well, you know, I started a business now. We're now booking jazz bands into all these clubs in the Midwest. And I realized like his whole life, he really wanted to be in the music. But because dad was a cardier, he went into the car business. So by the sale of the family business, he gave him and his sister nine figures worth of money to go and be their true selves. Right?
而且我觉得很多人都不喜欢做汽车生意。我们曾经有一个客户，他们有七家店，父亲快九十了，孩子们都五十多岁了。他们并不喜欢汽车生意，但父亲坚持。最后孩子们占了上风，他们卖掉了生意。几个月后，我和其中一个孩子的客户聊天。我给他看了他的照片，照片里他穿着一件蓝色衬衫和一件蓝色西装，短发整齐。他看起来像是要出去与客户打交道的样子。他的形象完全改变了。他的头发梳得很顺，穿着黑色皮夹克。他看起来很快乐和年轻。我问他在做什么，他说，你知道吗，我现在开始经营一家业务了。我们现在在中西部的各个俱乐部预定爵士乐队。我意识到，他一直想从事音乐事业。但因为父亲是汽车商人，他进入了汽车行业。通过出售家族生意，他和他妹妹得到了数亿美元的资金，可以做真正的自己了，对吧？

We have another client, the Salzman family. They owned two Stalana stores in Charlotte. I mentioned we'd had a record sale for one of their stores in Lake Mormon area. They sold their business. She started Chirrible Foundation, put in a significant amount of their after-tax proceeds in this Chirrible Foundation. Every day, she's working about how to make the lives better in this area around where the store was, right? He took some of the money he got, a bar near plane, and he's investing in multiple businesses. They're using that plane to fly around and see the grandkids, this boarding event, how the grandkids come to see them, see their kids, etc. So they've sold this business rather than transition to their kids. He has her chance to do what she wants to do in the charity side, gives him a chance to move from being a dealer to an investor and have a better family life. So he still likes the car business and investing in the car business, a technology company and retail business. But it made sense for them to divest this asset because they didn't grow on value so much. They couldn't afford not to, so to speak.
我们有另一个客户，萨尔兹曼家族。他们在夏洛特拥有两家斯塔拉纳商店。我提到我们在莱克莫门地区的一家店创下了纪录的销售额。他们出售了他们的生意。她创办了“奇瑞布尔基金会”，将他们税后收入的一大部分投入到这个基金会中。她每天都在思考如何改善这个商店周围地区的生活，对吗？他用他得到的一些钱，在飞机附近开了一家酒吧，并投资于多个企业。他们利用这架飞机四处飞行，看望孙子孙女，参加各种活动，看他们的孩子等等。所以他们卖掉了这个生意，而不是将其交给子女。这为她有机会做她想做的慈善工作，也为他有机会从销售员转为投资者，并拥有更好的家庭生活。所以他仍然喜欢汽车业务并投资于汽车业务、科技公司和零售业务。但是对他们来说，剥离这个资产是有道理的，因为它们的价值增长不多。可以说，他们无法负担得起不剥离它们。

Well, there you have it, folks. Sell your dealership, move to the Bahamas, and go lay on the beach and call it a day. I like it. Hey, I do have another question before we wrap up. Independent dealers. Independent dealer, non-franchise, right? No Toyota shingles above my head. Will we ever see an active independent dealer market? Will that ever happen? And the second follow up to that is how do you even price independence? It's a good question.
好吧，各位听着。把你的经销店卖掉，搬到巴哈马，去海滩上躺一天。我喜欢这个主意。嘿，在我们结束之前我还有一个问题。独立的经销商。独立的经销商，非特许经销商，对吧？我头上不会有丰田的标识。我们会不会看到一个活跃的独立经销商市场？那会不会发生？然后，对这个问题的第二个跟进问题是，你怎么定价独立性？这是一个好问题。

Over the years, we've been contacted by many independent dealers asking for assistance and selling their companies. And I feel like the independent dealers may be the best dealers out there because they have almost no one helping them. They're still able to thrive and make good living for themselves and their families. When I say almost no one helping them, if you consider their franchise dealer, they've got a global manufacturer that's providing to them an exclusive area product that they can sell. They finance those products to the customer. They finance those products to the dealer. When the products break, they pay the dealer to repair them. They do billions of dollars of advertising every year. And customers too, they're retailers. They're all kinds of advantages that franchise dealers have that independence do not. Four plane credits, four plane credits, marketing. Yes, four plane credits, marketing, all that stuff you're saying. So franchise dealers have got a significant head start every month to making money over the independent dealer that really has one department that they're working with, right? Use cars.
多年来，我们接到了许多独立经销商的求助和出售公司的请求。我觉得独立经销商可能是最好的经销商，因为他们几乎没有人来帮助他们。他们仍然能够发展壮大，为自己和家人过上好生活。当我说几乎没有人帮助他们时，如果考虑到他们的特许经销商，他们有一个全球制造商为他们提供独家的产品销售区域。他们为顾客提供产品融资，也为经销商提供产品融资。产品损坏时，他们付给经销商维修费用。他们每年投入数十亿美元进行广告。而独立经销商没有这些特权。申请信贷、营销等方面都是特许经销商的优势。所以，特许经销商每个月在赚钱方面比只经营一种车型的独立经销商取得了显著的先机。

So the challenge I think in creating a market for independent dealers is you mentioned floor plan. That is no guarantee for independence. When times get tough, the firms that provide four plan to independent dealers sometimes pull back. They're worried about exposure to some prime credit. So they might reduce the floor plan. They might require dealers to put down more equity. They might pull it all together. So if I'm a buyer and I'm thinking about buying a franchise business or independent business, there's no guarantee of financing for an independent dealer. There is guarantee of financing with a franchise dealer. If I'm thinking about making it. Is that really? Let's assume for a second that you're putting up some more capital as a buyer and the floor plan and maybe you don't need as much of a floor plan or you only need 50%. Putting financing aside, is that in your opinion the biggest gating item to an asset? Is that active independent dealer M&A market?
我认为在为独立经销商创建市场方面的挑战是你提到的库存贷款。这并不能保证他们的独立性。当经济情况困难时，为独立经销商提供库存贷款的公司有时会收缩。他们担心给予一些优质信用风险。因此他们可能会减少库存贷款，要求经销商提供更多的股本，或者干脆取消库存贷款。所以，如果我是一个买家，正在考虑购买特许经营或独立经营的生意，没有为独立经销商提供融资的保证。而特许经销商是有融资保证的。如果我在考虑这一点，假设你作为买家投入了更多的资本，或者库存贷款需要的更少，或者只需要50%。把融资放在一边，依你的意见，这是对资产而言最大的限制因素吗？这是否是一个活跃的独立经销商并购市场的主要限制因素？

Well, so you're a successful independent dealer. Banks have seen your track record. They want to loan you money. I'm going to come buy your business. I want to take the same terms. Does the bank give me the same credit they give you? I bet they wouldn't. I wouldn't. I was a lender. We've done so we've done some transitions, you know, speak vaguely and I can tell you that it depends. For example, right? Like if you're making a transition internally, it's a very case by case. Is this someone that's been with the dealership? How affiliated have they been? Is there a relationship? Are they the GM? I would say it's not black and white from my experience as an indie on that end. It's still a question, right? And I had a friend that I worked with an automation. There's no certainty. There's no certainty for sure. This is a guy who I started with at Audination. We bought stores together. He left Audination and became independent dealer. And then in the Great Recession, they pulled his floor plan. Both the stores went dark. He's now a financial planner. He had to get out of the business.
嗯，所以你是一位成功的独立经销商。银行看到了你的业绩记录。他们想要借钱给你。我打算来收购你的业务。我想要以同样的条件。银行会给我和你一样的信贷吗？我敢打赌他们不会。我也不会这样做。我曾经是一个放贷人。我们做过一些交易，你懂的，说得模糊一些，我可以告诉你这取决于情况。比如，对于内部转让而言，这非常因人而异。这是一个一直与经销商在一起的人吗？他们有多么有关系？他们是经理吗？据我作为一个独立经销商的经验来看，这并不是非黑即白的问题。这仍然是一个问题，对吧？我有一个朋友，我们曾一起在Audination工作过。我们一起购买过店铺。他离开了Audination成为了独立经销商。然后在大萧条时期，他的库存贷款被收回了，两家店都关门了。现在他是个理财师，他不得不退出这个行业。

Think the other question too, if I have him an investor is you are making, let's say you're making a million dollars at a location and you bought three million dollars for it. I'm like, yeah, but there's an empty lot right across the street where I could buy some cars and I could hire your salespeople, your manager to come over and sell those for me and couldn't I be in business? A lot less than paying you multiple earnings for your business. Couldn't I just go do that myself versus on the franchise side? You can't just go and set up the Toyota store, right? You have to buy them. And then I have less diversification. The used car market decline. I lose money at my inventory versus I've got parts, franchise business, you got parts and service, warranty work. The new, you have more levers that you can pull or flexibility is a business than on the independent side.
考虑另一个问题，如果我有一个投资者，你正在经营一个项目，比方说你在某个地方赚了一百万美元，但你为此投入了三百万美元。我在想，如果街对面有个空地，我可以在那里买些车辆，雇佣你的销售人员和经理来帮我销售，这样我就可以开展业务了。我不需要支付你的多倍收益作为加盟费，我可以自己去做，不是吗？相比之下，你不能仅仅建立一个丰田店对吧？你必须购买它们。而且我会缺少多样化。二手车市场下滑时，我的库存会亏损。而在加盟企业中，我拥有更多的杠杆和灵活性。有售后零件、加盟商务、保修工作。开展业务时，你拥有比独立端更多的操作杠杆和灵活性。

So I feel there have been some groups that have grown large enough to sell, I mean, Penske bought two groups up in the Northeast. I think it was right before the pandemic. But what I've seen so much of the value of even groups that have five, six locations, the entrepreneur is such a core part of how that business evolved over time. They know where to source the vehicles. They know who to hire. They know how to get them financed with retail level or the wholesale level. They're just excellent business people. They've slowly crafted this organization over decades. They want to retire. They have so much knowledge that can somebody step up and sustain what they've created, much less try to scale it and to a different area.
所以我觉得已经有一些组织达到了足够大的规模，可以出售。比如，Penske在东北买了两个团队，我想是在疫情爆发前。但我所见过的，甚至那些有五六个分店的团队，企业家在业务发展过程中起着核心作用。他们知道从何处获得车辆的供应，知道该雇用谁，知道如何在零售或批发级别上获得资金支持。他们是优秀的商人。他们在几十年的时间里慢慢打造了这个组织。他们想要退休了。他们拥有很多知识，但能否有人接手并维持他们创造的成果，更不用说把它扩展到不同的地区了。

So if you look at all the used cars, store chains that are out there, I mean, Echo Park has been a great challenge for sonic. Audubon's trying again with their super stores, but they're a long list of failures, you know, for the just the used only dealership.
所以，如果你看看市场上所有的二手车和连锁店，我是说，对于 Sonic 来说，Echo Park一直是一个巨大的挑战。奥德本正在尝试用他们的超级商店再次进入市场，但他们只专注于二手车销售的记录已经有很长的失败名单了。

Somebody I meant to remind because we're talking about the used car business, he had a phrase that sticks on my head. He goes, you know, I know a lot of really rich new car dealers. I don't know a lot of really rich used car dealers. It's just a much harder business than being on the franchise. And so back to your question.
有个人我本来想提醒一下，因为我们在谈论二手车业务，他说了一句让我印象深刻的话。他说，你知道，我认识很多非常富有的新车经销商，但是我不认识很多富有的二手车经销商。这个行业比起加盟店要难得多。所以回答你的问题。

We'll ever see a market for this. I think if there's a technology angle, there reduces the demand for superhuman level entrepreneurial abilities and independent dealership. If there's some technology, they can simplify the operations. If there is a lender because comfortable with that technology and will provide guaranteed flooring so that I could step in as an investor or buyer and say, I'm going to buy this business and it's bulletproof, right? Because they're always going to be used car sales. There are more used car sales and there are new car sales every year by a factor of what three, something like that. So in some ways, I could get bigger than being a franchise dealer.
我们将永远看到这个市场。我认为如果有一种技术角度，那么对于超人类级别的创业能力和独立经销权的需求就会减少。如果有一些技术，它们可以简化操作。如果有一个贷方对这种技术感到舒适，并提供担保的设备，那么作为投资者或购买者，我可以说，我将购买这个企业，它是无敌的，对吧？因为总会有二手车销售。每年二手车销售量比新车销售量多大约三倍这样。所以在某种程度上，我可以比成为一个特许经销商更大。

But until you can remove the risk of losing the flooring, say you can add enough technology to make sure that your business model is way better than what I could do if I set up business across the street from you. I think it's going to be hard to have goodwill value in an active market for independent dealerships. What do you think?
但是直到你能够消除失去地板的风险之前，假设你可以增加足够的技术来确保你的商业模式比我在你对面开设的企业要好得多。我认为在一个活跃的独立经销商市场中要获得商誉价值可能会很困难。你怎么看？

I think two things. I think number one, I think the entrepreneur is extremely key. Fully agree with that. And I think that was you when you mentioned that, I definitely echo that. I think the second thing is we've just invested tremendous amount in brand value. Again, very, there's no playbook for this type of stuff, right? How do you build brand takes years, takes a lot of work, a lot of good experiences, forging relationships with great influencers and other forms of unique marketing that is not just like, hey, let me go turn on a Google ad, but it builds great marketing.
我有两个想法。首先，我认为创业者非常关键。完全同意这一点。当你提到这一点时，我肯定对此表示赞同。我认为第二个想法是我们刚刚在品牌价值上进行了巨大的投资。同样的，这种事情没有固定的指南，对吧？如何建立品牌需要花费多年时间，需要大量的努力，良好的经验，与优秀影响者建立关系以及其他形式的独特营销，而不仅仅是简单地投放谷歌广告，而是构建出色的营销策略。

I've also the most successful used car dealerships I've seen as well as what we've done in the past is I've focused on specific niches within the market, not just like, hey, let me sell any car to anyone. You can do that. I think people just try to supply everything to the market. But I think that the used car dealerships seem to be the most successful, have really focused whether it be I'm focusing on challenged credit and being a financing provider. Financing is my key value proposition. Or maybe I'm focusing on, call it, higher mileage, five plus year old cars, whatever maybe those have been the ones that I've seen sustained the longest or at least have really brand themselves in the way to have consistent business and a state of flow.
我也看到了最成功的二手车经销商以及我们过去所做的事情，我专注于市场中的具体细分领域，而不只是随便卖给任何人。你可以这样做。我认为人们只是试图向市场提供一切。但我觉得二手车经销商似乎是最成功的，他们真正专注于某些方面，不论是专注于信用贷款困难的人并成为金融提供商，金融是我的核心价值主张。或者我专注于行驶里程较高、五年以上的车辆，无论是哪种类型的车，这些似乎是我见过的持久生存或至少在品牌推广方面非常成功，保持了持续的业务和稳定的现金流。

And I think to your point, I think the biggest challenge I see is lots of used car dealers are not well capitalized. They're just whether it be they're overextending floor plans or whatnot. That's always an issue.
我认为，就像你所说的，我认为我目前看到的最大挑战是许多二手车经销商没有资金充裕。他们不管是通过过度扩张库存计划还是其他方式，都存在这个问题。这一直是一个困扰。

I do see that the use car dealers that are well capitalized and maybe don't even have a floor plan. Obviously they're they typically, you know, last longest and do the best. I also see lending. That's a huge one, consumer lending, right? Getting your customer's finance. Remember, you don't have the franchise benefit of having that captive plus, you know, all these lenders in the market that don't even want to work with an independent dealer because they're independent. They don't have a franchise attached.
我确实看到那些资本雄厚，甚至可能没有库存计划的二手车经销商。显然，他们通常持续时间最长，表现最好。我也看到贷款方面的问题。这是一个非常重要的问题，消费者贷款，对吧？获得客户的融资。请记住，您没有特许经销商特有的好处，即有忠实顾客，而且市场上的许多贷款提供方甚至不愿意与独立经销商合作，因为他们是独立的，没有附加特许经销商。

And so I see that the indies that in the penance that can get those lenders to partner with them again, always been a huge opportunity in the space to remains till today. There are many lenders that will work with you as an independent, but it's takes over a decade to get the right ones to put you on the right programs, even when they let you in, doesn't mean that your own that franchise program, so to say. So I think there's a lot that comes into consideration.
所以我看到, 对那些能够使债权人再次与他们合作的自主企业来说，始终存在着巨大的机会。在这个领域里，有许多债权人愿意与你作为独立经营者合作，但是要花费十多年的时间去找到适合你的债权人并为你提供合适的计划，即使他们让你进入，也并不意味着你拥有自己的特许经营权。所以我认为有很多因素需要考虑进去。

And I do think once you unlock those separate, the captives, the floor planning, I think if you unlock that as a dealer, I think you're in very good shape and you could do very, very well as an independent dealer. And I think that's when you make it to be one of those independent dealers that do very well off of themselves.
我认为一旦你解锁了这些独立事物，比如囚徒、楼层规划，作为一个经销商，如果你解开了这些，那么你的形势就非常好，你可以作为一个独立的经销商非常成功。我认为那是你成为那些能够独立获得更好收益的经销商之一的时候。

Well, so let me ask you a opinion about this. Let's say you've got several locations and locations. You're well capitalized, you're successful, you're confident, your ability as a retailer. Would you go out and acquire a new vehicle franchise? I mean, there's H. Gregg that I think has been pretty successful buying Nissan dealerships. And then they still sell a tremendous amount of used units, but they have the added strength of a franchise or I think a system in building their business. It helps them acquire the real estate, etc.
好吧，让我问你个意见。假设你有几个地点和分店，你的资金充足，你的零售能力很强，还很有信心。那你会去收购一家新的汽车特许经销店吗？我是说，H. Gregg这家公司在购买日产经销店方面取得了相当大的成功。虽然他们还在销售大量的二手车，但他们通过特许经销店系统在业务发展方面增加了力量。这有助于他们获得房地产等资源。

By underperforming new vehicle franchise somewhere and bring your expertise, don't leave behind and really light up a sleepy dealership with used vehicle entrepreneurial talent to some more new and used cars. Is that something that you would recommend to your friends in the independent space? So I think the short answer is yes. Let me give you my thinking here.
通过将您的专业知识应用于低业绩的新车特许经营权所在地，不要放弃，用事实证明您对二手车业务的创业才能，为一家沉睡的经销商注入新的和二手车辆的活力。这是您会推荐给独立经营者朋友们做的事吗？我想简短回答是肯定的。让我给您解释一下我的思路。

Right. So I think the only disagree with me, I think like Easterns who was on Joe was on the pod recently, they haven't gone into the franchise space. I think they did once maybe like a decade ago, then they got out of it. You know, now he said they may be looking at a franchise. But I think the way I think about it is like just being very black and white. You enter the franchise space, especially in today's market with all this volatility. You just de-risking your business. That's the way I see it.
对，所以我认为唯一不同意我的人，我认为像最近在朱尔的节目上的东方人，他们还没有进入特许经营领域。我想可能在十年前他们曾经进入过，然后退出了。你知道，现在他说他们可能在考虑开展特许经营。但我对此的看法是非常明确的。你进入特许经营领域，特别是在今天这样波动不定的市场中。你只是将你的业务降低风险。这就是我对此的看法。

In the sense that you have five different departments, more profit centers as opposed to one. You have all the other benefits we discussed, get a captive lender, right? You have like get a lending from your manufacturer, from your OEM. You have those floor plane credits, marketing, everything else we discussed. But you also have lease returns, right? You have this like quote, quote, quote proprietary supply inventory, which I think is huge as a dealer, especially used for dealers, you're relying 90 plus percent on auction typically for your purchases. Really the most inefficient acquisition channel or most expensive, you could say.
从你拥有五个不同部门的意义来说，更多的利润中心相对于一个。你拥有我们讨论过的所有其他好处，可以获得一个固定贷方，对吧？你可以从你的制造商那里得到贷款，从你的OEM那里得到贷款。你还有那些楼面信贷、市场营销以及我们讨论的其他一切。但你也有租赁回收车辆，对吧？你有这种所谓的专有供应库存，我觉得这对一个经销商来说非常重要，尤其是对于二手车销售商来说，你通常在买车时90%以上依赖拍卖会。实际上，这是最低效的采购渠道，也可以说是最昂贵的。

I think the biggest hurdle I've seen from having conversations with other dealers about franchise is execution risk. I think that is a different business somewhat. You are entering, you have more departments that you need to manage. You likely need a bigger team, right? With a used car dealership, as the sole proprietor, as the dealer principal, you could run the used car dealership, everything could roll up to you in a way. You could be making all those decisions. You're going to be running like a chicken without its head on. I mean, you're going to be just going nuts, but you could do it.
我认为与其他经销商谈论特许经营的最大障碍是执行风险。我觉得这是一个有所不同的业务。加盟经营意味着你需要管理更多的部门。很可能需要一个更庞大的团队，对吗？作为一家二手车经销商，作为唯一的业主、经销商负责人，你可以经营二手车经销店，所有事情都可以归属于你。你可以做出所有决策。你会像无头苍蝇一样忙个不停。我的意思是，你会疯狂地工作，但你可以做到。

With a new car dealership, again, depending on the scale, you're going to need to start really being better at delegating, have some more documented processes, more compliance, financial reporting for the manufacturer. I just think that it does require someone of a different skill set. If you're very unsophisticated, I don't think it's the right move because I just think you'll fail from an execution perspective. I think that's my take. If you can manage the execution and you can get through it and you can scale as an operator and have the right people and surround yourself with the right people, I think you could do a very good job.
随着新汽车经销商的出现，根据规模的不同，你需要开始更好地委派任务，拥有更多的文件化流程，更高的合规性，以及为制造商提供财务报告。我认为这需要一些不同技能背景的人来完成。如果你很不成熟，我不认为这是正确的选择，因为从执行角度来看，我认为你会失败。这就是我的看法。如果你能够管理好执行，并且能够应对困难，具备扩展经营能力，并与合适的人保持接触，我认为你可以做得很出色。

You would absolutely go into the franchise space, of course, with the right brand. I agree with your saying. It's definitely more complicated. The good news is if you buy a business, you're not buying a shell, right? It has a general manager there. It has any county department, et cetera. They already know how to do those things. Often they've been owned by somebody who maybe has become an absentee owner, not really leaning into it, as I mentioned before. I don't know anybody's craftier than independent dealer. I think in some ways, if you put an independent dealer in the house with a franchise business, that's rocket fuel for that dealership.
当然，只要选择合适的品牌，你绝对会进入特许经营领域。我同意你的说法，这确实更加复杂。好消息是，如果你购买一家企业，你不是在买一个空壳，对吧？那里已经有一个总经理，有相关的县市部门，等等。他们已经知道如何做这些事情。通常情况下，这些企业可能已经被某个人拥有，但此人可能已经成为了一个缺席的业主，没有真正投入其中，就像之前提到的那样。我不认为有人比独立经销商更精明。我觉得，从某种程度上讲，如果把一个独立经销商放到一个特许经营企业的内部，对于那个经销商来说，这就像是给加了“火箭燃料”。

We're all about being friends with a dealer. We're not providing services to the factory or to tech companies. We're all about serving a dealer. We want to be perceived as a giver in our industry. If I could give any advice to the end of the end of the end, if you spend your whole life and you build up a group of six or eight or 10 and in locations and you call them and say, Alan, I want to exit, can you help me? I'm going to say, I don't know.
我们的目标是与经销商建立友谊关系。我们并不提供给工厂或科技公司的服务。我们致力于为经销商提供服务。我们希望在行业中被看作是一个给予者。如果我能给出任何建议的话，那就是，如果你一生都在建立一个由六个、八个或十个人组成的团队，并在各个地点联系他们并说：“艾伦，我想退出，你能帮我吗？”我会说：“我不知道。”

If you call me and say, Alan, I took my proceeds to my independent stores and I bought three new car franchises. We have a three-to-one use and new ratio at these brands. We've got four or five independent, separate lots. Can you help me? I would say, yes, we can. We'll be able to sell that business. We'll be able to monetize multiple of your earnings for your life's work.
如果你给我打电话说，Alan，我把我的收入拿去我的独立商店购买了三个新的汽车特许经营权。在这些品牌中，我们有三比一的新旧车比例。我们有四五个独立的停车场。你能帮助我吗？我会说，是的，我们可以。我们能够出售这家公司。我们能够将你多年来的辛勤工作变现。

That's where, again, you know that business that I do, but if people can take their proceeds and invest in a franchise business, you mentioned de-risking. It's not just de-risking. I think it's also creating enduring value for your family because if you build six or eight stores and there's no one to transition to, maybe you sell it to your gentleman as yourself, you finance that acquisition, maybe that'll work. But is that the same as if you could sell a franchise business that had a supercharged used car department? I don't know.
这就是，再次强调你知道我做的那种生意，但如果人们能够用他们的收益投资于一家特许经营的企业，你提到了减少风险。这不仅仅是减少风险。我认为这也是为你的家族创造持久价值，因为如果你建立了六到八家门店，却没有人来接管，也许你可以将其卖给诸如你这样的绅士，又或者你为此收购提供融资，也许那个方案会奏效。但这能与销售带有超强二手车部门的特许经营企业相媲美吗？我不知道。

But how practical is it for a used car dealer to get into the franchise space nowadays? And I say that, I mean, there's all these sharks around the table paying tens of millions for franchises. How practical is it really nowadays? I would say you would probably start small. There are so many domestic stores out there. Many of them are selling just a couple hundred new cars a year. There are not a lot of people looking to buy those stores because as a new car dealer saying, hey, in normal times, that business might make a half million dollars a year. I don't really want to buy it. That's just buying myself a job.
然而，如今二手车经销商进军特许经营领域真的切实可行吗？我是这样说的，我的意思是，周围都是一些为特许经营付出数千万的鲨鱼。现在真的切实可行吗？我认为你可能会从小做起。市场上有那么多国内店铺。其中许多店铺每年只销售几百辆新车。并不是有很多人想要购买这些店铺，因为作为一家新车经销商，正常情况下，这个行业可能每年能赚50万美元。我真的不想购买它。那只等于给自己找份工作。

So the consolidators are not looking at smaller stores. They really want stores that are making, gabled making a couple million dollars or more a year. If I'm an independent dealer and I'm buying a smaller Ford store somewhere and I can take their used car department and double or triple it, now it's on a half million dollar store. I'm creating value there. I'm not just taking their franchise model and leaving it as is.
因此，整合公司并不考虑规模较小的店铺。他们真正需要的是年营收达到几百万美元或更多的店铺。如果我是一家独立经销商，正在购买某处规模较小的福特专卖店，并且我能将其二手车部门扩大一倍或三倍，那么现在它就是一家年营收达到50万美元的店铺了。我在这里创造了价值。我并不仅仅接手他们的特许经营模式，维持原状。

So I think if you start small, you buy a domestic store or a Nissan store and take a page out of what is your greatest time. That's a franchise that's been beaten up the last five years. It's not yet returned to the level of profits that it used to be. It still has good products. It still has a demand for that car. Nissan brand is kind of similar to what an independent brand might be building in terms of a value. But now you can bolt them all the other departments you just mentioned. Now you got four other departments. You can take a trade-in. You can take the off-lease. You can do your warranty work for all your Nissan's that you sell at your independent stores at the picture-owned store versus sending it to a third party.
所以我认为，如果你从小处开始，购买一个国内店铺或一家尼桑经销店，并借鉴你最辉煌的时期的经验。这是一个在过去五年遭受打击的特许经营机构。它的利润水平还没有恢复到过去的水平。它仍然有着优质产品，对该款汽车仍然有需求。尼桑品牌在价值方面与独立品牌有些相似。但是现在你可以将其与你所提到的其他部门结合起来。现在你有了四个其他部门。你可以接受置换车辆，可以接收租赁到期车辆。您可以为您在独立店铺中销售的尼桑车辆提供保修服务，而不是将其发送给第三方。

So I think if you start on the franchises that are less than demand but you bring your used vehicle expertise, that could be a path where you might have in a market a Ford store, a Chevy store, a Nissan store, maybe you pick up a hundred-tier store that's in a different part of town where the consolidators want to be. And over a period of time you've got five, six grandchild businesses that do great use cars. That's a sellable asset. There'll be people that will pay for that versus if I had five or six independent stores in an area, I just don't know. You talk, I mean, you know that this is what I do. How many exits have you seen people make where they just get cash and walk away for their life's work? I think it's rare.
所以我认为，如果你从需求较少的特许经营开始，并且利用你的二手车专业知识，这可能是一条道路，在市场上你可能会有一家福特店、一家雪佛兰店、一家尼桑店，也许你还可以接手一家位于城市不同区域、整合者想要进入的百级店。随着时间的推移，你会拥有五六个很强的二手车分店。这是一项可以销售的资产。相比于我在该地区拥有五六家独立店铺，我并不确定是否存在愿意为此支付费用并放弃他们毕生努力的人。你知道，这是我的专业领域，你看过有多少人在他们的一生工作后只是拿到现金然后离开？我认为这是罕见的。

Yeah, I mean, I think under independent size specifically, you know, used car king comes to mind. That was a bit of a bit different. I was, you know, sonic, but yeah, it's, it is rare. Yeah. And I think if you have sonic but they do that deal today, it was a yes. I'd say it's 2020 my friend. Well, who would have thought who would have thought, you know, how things would, you know, five and a half points increase in, you know, like what, like a year and a half or something with REITs, just it's crazy. How everything's changed. But yeah, that makes sense, right? The REITs went up and we all made more money. I don't know about the independent side, but the franchise dealers. Definitely not. Definitely not on the independent side. And usually pushing you down your profits. Oh, yeah. Yeah.
是啊，我的意思是，在独立规模下，我想到了二手车王。那有点不一样。我是说，我是索尼克，但是是的，这很少见。是的，如果你今天和他们达成交易，那当然是个绝对肯定。我得说这是2020年，我的朋友。谁能想到呢，谁能想到，你知道，事情会如何发展，房地产信托基金的增长率增长了5.5个百分点，大约是一年半左右吧，真是疯狂。一切都变了。但是是的，这讲得通，对吧？房地产信托基金上涨，我们都赚了更多的钱。至于独立经销商，我不清楚，但是加盟经销商肯定不会。绝对不会在独立方面。而且通常会削减你的利润。是的，是的。

So, Alan, this was, this has been awesome. Any, any closing statements, any closing thoughts?
那么，艾伦，这真的太棒了。有什么最后的陈述或思考吗？

I think if I have a personal message it would descend is, you know, I started this business about less than 10 years ago. And I probably worked for another 10 years. And I have a couple of kids that are in their early mid 20s now and they raise their hands and wanted to join the company about six months ago.
我想，如果我有一个个人的信息要传达，那就是，你知道的，我大约在10年前开始创业。我可能还要再工作十年。我的几个孩子现在已经二十来岁了，他们大约六个月前高举手臂想加入我的公司。

And I wasn't sure that I wanted that for them. You know, are we selling buggy whips? Are these products that are going to be obsolete in a decade or two decades or three decades when those guys are in their prime of their careers? Would it be asking them to step in and take a risk that is risk, is too great a risk for the reward?
我不确定我是否希望他们这样。你知道的，我们是在卖过时的产品吗？这些产品在十年、二十年或三十年后的他们事业巅峰时期可能会过时吗？要求他们冒险，风险是否过大，得不偿失？

And after I saw how these dealerships formed the pandemic, certainly there's risk in every industry. But I would, and now I'm excited because they have joined our company. And you know, they're starting out at the bottom. And we are going to try to have the best we can of having some family members, but also some really talented executives that are not named a to build our company.
在我看到这些经销商是如何在大流行期间崛起的后，我意识到每个行业都存在风险。但是我会，而且现在我很兴奋，因为他们已经加入了我们的公司。你知道，他们从底层开始。我们将努力拥有一些家庭成员，同时也会有一些非常有才华的高管，他们的名字不以A字母开头，来构建我们的公司。

And that, if I look out at the groups that are, they were thinking about growing, it makes me, I'm doing that because I'm confident in the future of auto retail. I wouldn't have asked them to join if I thought this was going to go away.
如果我看着那些正在考虑增长的群体，这让我相信汽车零售的未来。如果我认为这个行业会消失，我就不会邀请他们加入。

But along with that is there has to be growth. You have to get bigger as a retailer, in my opinion. If you stay at one or two stores, I think that you're going to gradually lose share imperceptibly to other, other larger brands that have capabilities that you don't.
但是与此同时，必须有增长。在我看来，作为零售商，你必须变得更大。如果你只停留在一个或两个店铺，我认为你会逐渐无法察觉地失去市场份额，被其他规模更大、具有你无法比拟的能力的品牌所取代。

So that term, you know, grow or get out, I think is one that I would emphasize to people, I don't want to scare people and say, you got to grow right now, or you're going to go out of business, because that's not the case. But over the long term, the advent of this technology is going to be into favor larger dealers versus smaller ones.
所以这个术语，你知道的，成长或者退出，我认为是我要向人们强调的一个观点，我不想吓唬人们，告诉他们必须立即成长，否则就会破产，因为情况并非如此。但是从长远来看，这种技术的出现将更有利于大型经销商，而不利于小型经销商。

There are a couple caveats. If you're the only Toyota dealer in town, you're likely going to be fine. If you're the only Porsche dealer in town, you're likely going to be fine. Those brands are so strong. I don't think that you need to have a giant company around them to sell those vehicles.
这里有一些限制条件。如果你是镇上唯一的丰田汽车经销商，你很可能会成功。如果你是镇上唯一的保时捷汽车经销商，你也很可能会成功。这些品牌非常有实力。我认为你并不需要一个巨大的公司来销售这些汽车。

So I think long term, our industry is still bright. We're going to have challenges. But I'm certainly investing personally and professionally in this industry. And I'm glad there are folks like you out there that are sharing the news about our industry with people who are maybe not working in it now to consider a career.
所以我认为从长远角度来看，我们的行业依然光明。我们将面临挑战，但我个人和职业上都正在投资于这个行业。我很高兴在这里有像你这样的人，将我们行业的新闻与那些可能目前尚未考虑从事这个行业的人分享。

I mean, hard to worship guy. You have some friends that are general management stores that are making a million dollars a year, right? Where can you make that in corporate America? Almost nowhere. It's definitely a long, a long road. And it would likely be in the finance sector.
我的意思是，很难崇拜这样的人。你有一些朋友在经营店铺方面，在每年挣一百万美元，对吧？在美国的企业界，你在哪里才能达到这个水平呢？几乎没有地方。这绝对是一条漫长的道路。而且很可能是在金融领域。

So these are people that are in every community in this country that are making several hundred thousand to several million dollars a year running enterprises. They're significant players in their communities. They're giving money to charities. They're employing people. They're providing services to folks. It's a career that no one really thinks about when they're getting in high school or college.
所以，这些人是该国每个社区中的人，他们每年通过经营企业赚取几十万到几百万美元。他们在自己所在社区中扮演着重要角色。他们向慈善机构捐赠资金，雇佣员工，为人们提供服务。这是一个在人们上高中或上大学时根本没人考虑过的职业。

But in my opinion, arguably one of the better careers you can have as a business person. I love it.
在我看来，作为一名商人，可能是你可以拥有的更好的职业之一。我喜欢它。

Alan, this has been great. Thanks for coming on, sharing all your knowledge. Dude, this has been the longest podcast I've done this far. So congrats on that. We had a new record. That's a good thing. I mean, I'm the most talkative guy. No, it's just tons, tons to discuss.
艾伦，这太棒了。感谢你参加并分享你所有的知识。哥们，这是我到目前为止做过的最长的播客了。所以恭喜你。我们创造了一个新纪录，这是个好事。我的意思是，我是最健谈的人。不，只是有太多太多的话题可以讨论。

And lastly, where can people learn more about, hey, yourself, where can people get in contact with you?
最后，人们想要了解更多关于你的信息，嘿，你在哪里可以联系到？

Well, we have a website, hagepartners.com, where we have all of the reports. We issue these HAG reports, each quarter trends out of retail and how they impact dealership values. You can certainly call me at 954-646-8921 or email me at Alan at hagepartners. Alan is A-L-A-N.
嗯，我们有一个网站，hagepartners.com，在这里我们拥有所有的报告。我们发布这些HAG报告，每个季度跟踪零售行业的趋势以及它们对经销店价值的影响。你可以随时致电给我，电话号码是954-646-8921，或者通过电子邮件联系我，我的邮件地址是Alan at hagepartners。Alan的拼写是A-L-A-N。

And again, thank you for these podcasts and all the good information you spread to folks. I think it's wonderful what you're doing.
再次感谢你的播客和你提供给大家的所有有用信息。我觉得你所做的工作非常棒。

Appreciate it, Alan. This has been great. Thanks for coming on. All right. Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating, consider subscribing to the show, and check the show notes for links to what we talked about. Thanks for tuning in. See you guys next time.
谢了，Alan。这真是太棒了。感谢你的加入。好的，希望你享受这一集。请给这个播客评分，考虑订阅节目，并查看节目说明中我们讨论的链接。感谢你收听。下次见！