Tesla Production Resumes? + Fuel Economy Proposal, Demo Drives
发布时间 2023-07-29 02:52:09 来源
摘要
➤ Tesla appears to resume production at Fremont after short downtime
➤ PCE comes in below expectations
➤ Safety response at Giga Texas
➤ Cybertruck line video
➤ NHTSA outlines fuel economy standards proposal
➤ Tesla reportedly continues talks with India
➤ V4 Supercharger installations continue
➤ Tesla updates website, adds demo drives to referral program
➤ Ford talks hybrids
➤ SpaceX to attempt Falcon Heavy launch: https://www.youtube.com/live/5ixbPMe6684
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Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody Rob Mauer here and today we are going to be talking about an update on Tesla's production status at Fremont. We've also got some news at Giga Texas, some new emission standard proposals from NHTSA and a few other items as well.
大家好，我是Rob Mauer。今天我们将讨论特斯拉在弗里蒙特的生产状态更新。此外，我们还有一些关于德克萨斯超级工厂的新闻，以及美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）提出的新排放标准建议，以及其他一些内容。
Alright, looking at the stock, nice day for Tesla today, nice day for the markets but Tesla finishing up 4.20% to close at $266.44. Well then Aztec up 1.9% on the day. So I think a lot of it was Tesla riding the success of the markets. Not a whole lot of Tesla specific news today driving the beta that we may have seen today. But I think the markets overall probably reacting to pretty good news from the PCE report as we can see here.
好的，看看股市，今天对特斯拉来说是个不错的日子，市场也不错，但是特斯拉收盘上涨4.20%，收于266.44美元。此外，今天亚兹特克上涨1.9%。所以我认为特斯拉的成功是受到市场的推动。今天没有太多特斯拉特定的新闻来推动可能出现的贝塔。但我认为整体市场对PCE报告的积极反应可能是原因，我们可以在这里看到。
So personal consumption expenditures, dropping, continuing to drop from where we have seen it over the last 12 months. Now down to just below 3% year over year increase in PCE on the headline number. So nice to see that drop that came in probably 10 basis points or so below expectations. And then if we look at core PCE, we can see not as nice of a trend but actually a pretty big drop from last month's number dropping from about 4.6% from the what have been May report into 4.1% for the June numbers.
个人消费支出持续下降，与过去12个月相比又出现了下降。现在，核心数字上的个人消费支出年同比增长率仅略低于3%，对于这种低于预期的降幅来说真是好消息。如果我们看核心个人消费支出，趋势就不太好了，从上个月的数据来看下降了相当多，从5月的4.6%降到了6月的4.1%。
Now obviously these are coming out quite a bit after CPI so we already had some pretty good CPI numbers for June and this kind of builds on that. Nevertheless didn't really change interest rate expectations for the September meeting. Obviously we're quite a ways out from those. As Powell said, we're going to get a lot of economic data between now and then still a couple of CPI reports. But with the FOMC meeting this week with the PCE report now out expectations on interest rates really not changed for the September meeting. 83% chance of them being between 5.5 and a quarter 5.5% now dropped to 80% through all the economic reporting that we've had this week. So relatively stable even though a lot going on. Not as much economic news next week.
显然，这些数据是在CPI公布之后相当晚发布的，因此我们已经在6月份获得了一些相当不错的CPI数据，并且这些数据对此起到了一定的推动作用。尽管如此，这并没有真正改变人们对于9月会议利率预期的看法。显然我们离那个时间段还有相当长的一段时间。正如鲍威尔所说，我们将在现在和那时之间得到大量的经济数据，其中还包括几个CPI报告。但是随着本周的FOMC会议和PCE报告的发布，人们对于9月会议的利率预期并没有发生变化。目前有83%的概率认为利率将在5.5%到5.25%之间，但经过本周所有的经济报道后，这一概率下降到了80%。所以即使有很多事情正在发生，但整体上仍然相对稳定。下周经济新闻不会那么多。
Alright, getting into Tesla stuff. So it looks like there has been a resumption of production at Fremont. So this was reported on the YouTube channel, Matt God and the wilderness. They have been doing some drone flyovers of Fremont and previously it reported that it looked like production had been paused and now we're reporting that it looked like production has been resumed at Fremont. Said I don't know what to tell you. I can only tell you what I see Tesla resume production today after just a short pause. It's slow but resumed with just two days. I don't think they can do a line upgrade, maybe just maintenance. So we'll continue to keep an eye on this. I think this person plans on following it pretty closely since we do have the rumors of production shutdowns during this month or not even rumors kind of confirmed by Tesla on the conference call for the YouTube report. But we'll keep an eye on this, maybe they're doing this in sort of segments or maybe the production is half-resuming, maybe model-wise continuing model three shutdown, for example, something like that. So I'm sure we'll get a little bit more clarity as time goes on. But kind of interesting to see that brief stoppage and now seemingly another restart for production at Fremont.
好了，我们来谈谈特斯拉的事情。看起来弗里蒙特的生产已经恢复了。这在YouTube频道“马特·戈德和荒野”上有报道。他们一直在用无人机对弗里蒙特进行飞行监视，之前报道说看起来生产已经暂停，现在我们报道说生产已经恢复了。他说我不知道该告诉你什么，我只能告诉你我所见到的，特斯拉在短暂的停工后今天恢复了生产。虽然缓慢，但仅用了两天就恢复了。我不认为他们可以进行产线升级，可能只是维护工作。所以我们将继续密切关注。我认为这个人计划密切关注，因为我们对本月的停工传闻有一些，甚至特斯拉在YouTube报告的电话会议上也得到了证实。但我们将继续关注，也许他们是在分段进行，或者生产正在半恢复，也许是针对特定型号，比如Model 3的停工，等等。所以我相信随着时间的推移，我们将会有更多的清晰度。但看到弗里蒙特生产短暂停工，然后似乎又重新开始生产，还是挺有趣的。
All right, and then we do have some news from Giga Texas today. Apparently there was some safety concerns happening. There was a report of a shooter at Giga Texas. Police went out and they weren't able to find any evidence that that was actually going on. They said they found nothing out of the ordinary, no casualties, no sounds of gunfire, nothing to substantiate the presence of a shooter at all. So good news on the results of that, but probably a little bit of a disconcerting situation at Giga Texas. Glad to hear that there was nothing out of the ordinary from what they were able to find from the investigation. But probably caused a little bit of a delay in terms of progress today at Giga Texas. And again, glad to see that nothing else came of that.
好的，然后今天我们从Giga Texas那里得到了一些消息。显然发生了一些安全问题。有一份关于Giga Texas的枪手报告。警方出动了，但他们无法找到任何证据证明实际上发生了这样的事件。他们表示没有发现任何异常，没有伤亡，没有枪声，没有任何东西能够证实有枪手的存在。所以关于这一结果是好消息，但在Giga Texas可能会引起一些不安的局面。很高兴听到他们在调查中没有发现任何异常。但可能会对Giga Texas的进展造成一点延迟。再次，很高兴看到没有其他事情发生。
And then other news on Giga Texas, Gregor Chuck on Twitter sharing a video, I think that was originally shared on Facebook, of inside Giga Texas. And actually a cyber truck on the line, we can kind of see it. It's not the best quality video, obviously. But you can see continuing to work on those release candidate vehicles. But obviously there's not a big run of these. They're kind of just focused on this one right here. So maybe more in other parts of the factory. But interesting to get some insight into kind of how things are looking on the cyber truck line right now.
然后关于Giga Texas的其他新闻，格雷戈尔·查克在推特上分享了一个视频，我认为这个视频最初是在Facebook上分享的，视频是关于Giga Texas内部的情况。实际上，在生产线上有一辆Cybertruck，我们可以稍微看到它。显然，视频的质量不是很好。但你可以看到他们正在继续改进这些发售候选车辆。但显然这些车辆的数量不是很多，他们只是专注于这一辆车。所以可能在工厂的其他部分可能有更多车辆。但了解目前Cybertruck生产线的情况还是很有趣的。
All right, next today we do have an updated proposal from NHTSA outlining fuel economy standards for the 2027 through 2032 model year time period. And this is always a little bit confusing because in the US, both the EPA and NHTSA have proposals and standards for these and they don't necessarily have to coordinate. So it feels like we get some news on this pretty often. And there's actually a third party weighing in as well.
好的，接下来我们有一份来自美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的更新提案，概述了2027年至2032年车型的燃油经济标准。这总是有点令人困惑，因为在美国，环境保护局（EPA）和NHTSA对此都有提议和标准，并且它们不一定需要协调。所以我们似乎经常会收到一些关于此事的新闻。实际上，还有第三方参与其中。
But this is the NHTSA version. They are proposing that fuel economy standards rise to an average for each fleet, each OEM fleet of 58 miles per gallon by the 2032 model year. Of course, that depends on how things are calculated, which we'll come back to in a second. But this relatively in terms of the increase from previous proposals or from, I guess, the most recent finalized proposal, which runs through the 2026 model year, that would put the average fleet target at 49 miles per gallon. So it's a bit of an increase.
但这是美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的版本。他们提议，到2032年模型年，平均每个生产商车队的燃油经济标准提高至每加仑58英里。当然，这取决于如何计算，我们马上会讨论这个问题。但从之前的提议或者最近通过的最终提案来看，根据2026年模型年的标准，这将使得平均车队目标达到每加仑49英里。所以这是一个相当大的增长。
Obviously that's a six, seven year time period to be able to go from 49 to 58. Whether that's significant or not, I think kind of depends on your perspective. But interesting to see this proposal. And they do say that this, you know, relatively aligns with, scroll down a little bit further here, relatively aligns with the EPA in terms of what the EPA has proposed for those years. They said that they try to coordinate that so that it's relatively easy for automakers if they're able to meet EPA standards to then also meet NHTSA standards.
显然，从49到58是一个要花费六七年的时间。是否这个变化具有重要意义，我觉得要看你的观点。但是看到这项提议还是挺有意思的。他们说这个提议与环保署的提议相对一致，下滑一点儿可以看到。他们表示他们努力协调这两者，以便如果汽车制造商能够达到环保署的标准，也能够达到国家公路交通安全管理局的标准。
Now the Alliance for Automotive Innovation did comment on this. They called the draft a de facto battery electric vehicle mandate that is neither reasonable nor achievable in the timeframe provided. But again, going from 2026 to 2032, only increasing by, you know, nine miles per gallon, less than 20%. I guess it's presented wise a pretty decent increase over that period of time. But if automakers are really making the switches to EVs like they say they are going to do, then this should be something that is pretty achievable.
现在汽车创新联盟对此发表了评论。他们称这个草案实际上是对电池电动汽车的强制要求，既不合理也无法在规定时间内实现。不过，从2026年到2032年，只增加了每加仑九英里，不到20%。我猜这在那段时间里算是相当可观的增加了。但如果汽车制造商真的像他们所说的那样转向电动汽车，那么这应该是相当可行的事情。
So interesting to hear those comments nevertheless. But in terms of the actual impact this will have, I think this might be a little bit less important than something else that's going on in relation to how these things are actually calculated. The Department of Energy has commented on this and we've previously talked about this. Right now, the calculation for electric vehicles on this average is pretty favorable.
尽管如此，听到这些评论真是太有趣了。但就实际影响而言，我认为这件事情可能比其他与这些事情的实际计算相关的事情稍微不那么重要。能源部对此发表了评论，我们之前也提到过这一点。目前，对于电动汽车在这个平均值中的计算还是相当有利的。
And that doesn't necessarily, you would think that maybe that helps Tesla, but because Tesla is 100% EVs, it doesn't make any difference for them. But for example, for Ford, one F-150 Lightning, sorry about the sirens, one F-150 Lightning right now would basically bring the average up because it is currently rated at about 238 miles per gallon, equivalent. So obviously pulls the average way up, but that's probably not very realistic. And the rating in reality should probably be a little bit closer to like 67 miles per gallon, which the Department of Energy has proposed to adjust in terms of how those calculations are done. So obviously that would have a much more significant impact. I think on what ends up happening with these standards than, you know, whether it's 56 or 58 miles per gallon targets in 2032. So we'll keep an eye on this, but I think probably the most important thing to watch is, is that a ruling from the Department of Energy.
这并不一定如你所想，或许你会认为这对特斯拉有帮助，但由于特斯拉百分之百采用电动汽车，对他们来说没有任何区别。但以福特为例，一辆F-150 Lightning（闪电版）现在基本上会提高平均续航里程，因为目前它的续航里程约为每加仑238英里。显然这会大幅拉高平均数，但这可能并不是很现实的情况。实际上，根据能源部的建议，实际续航里程可能接近每加仑67英里，这应该是更符合实际情况的评估方式。所以显然这会有更显著的影响，对这些标准的最终结果产生影响，而不仅仅是2032年的目标为每加仑56或58英里。我们将继续关注此事，但我认为最重要的是观察能源部的决定。
All right.
好的。
Next, we've got a couple of, we've got a couple of items on India.
So basically the same story we continue to hear to Tesla senior executives meeting with two officials in the investment promotion arm in New Delhi and India, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
So we've had previous reports that these meetings were going to continue through this month.
So probably no surprise on that.
But paired with that, there is a report on BYD and their conversations with India with Reuters also reporting that BYD now plans to pause or shelve its investment plans in India.
They say that this has, this decision has arisen because of security concerns about the investment probably stemming from India's side from a Chinese company that are, you know, putting up some blocks in terms of their plans for this possible billion dollar investment in India.
It sounds like they're, you know, at least for now dropping the pursuit of this.
Obviously that can change and could be negotiating and things like that.
But that probably would affect the conversations that happen with Tesla.
Whether that's, you know, good or bad, I think probably if BYD dropped out, it maybe puts a little bit more pressure on India to give Tesla good terms to make sure that they're securing, you know, one of those two, the two leading EV manufacturers to that.
So interesting.
I'm sure we'll continue to talk more about India in the coming months, but pretty relevant update there for BYD today.
接着，我们有几个关于印度的项目。根据两位知情人士透露的消息，特斯拉高层与新德里和印度投资促进部门的两名官员会面，听起来这与以往的报道一致，这些会议将会在本月继续进行。这并不令人意外。但与此同时，路透社还报道了比亚迪在与印度的谈判中的情况，他们计划暂停或搁置在印度的投资计划。报道称，这个决定是因为印度方面对来自中国公司的投资提出了安全担忧，阻碍了比亚迪对印度进行可能达到十亿美元的投资计划。从目前来看，他们似乎暂时放弃了这一计划。当然，情况可能会改变，双方可能还在进行谈判等。但这可能会影响与特斯拉进行的谈判。无论是好是坏，我认为如果比亚迪退出，可能会对印度施加更大的压力，以确保他们能够获得有利的条件，确保他们能够获得这两个领先的电动汽车制造商之一。这很有趣。我相信在接下来的几个月里我们会继续谈论印度，但对比亚迪来说，这是一个相当相关的更新。
All right.
好吧。
Next, V4 Superchargers.
We've been talking a little bit about these over the last couple of weeks and the installation process for V4 Superchargers does continue.
So Tesla owners club France noticing that another 20 stall V4 Supercharger has opened.
I'm not sure exactly where in France this is or even if it is in France, I guess, which I think it is.
Sorry.
I think we have maybe some music going.
Hopefully not.
We'll get to that in a second.
SpaceX is doing another launch.
But V4 Supercharger. Nice to see these continue.
I think this is the fourth one if I recall correctly.
So the fourth V4, but nice to see those continue in a pretty significant number of stalls with this location.
There was also some posts today about the power capacity of V4 Superchargers and on the pedestal at least.
Those do 1000 volts and 1000 amps, which technically would make these capable of 1 megawatt.
However, obviously they might not draw the maximum voltage and amperage from both at the same time.
And even the current V3 Superchargers are more capable, or at least on the pedestal side or more capable of drawing higher than 250 kilowatts.
So it doesn't necessarily mean much in terms of what those rates would be.
And then obviously it's dependent on the vehicles as well.
But I think having that, it obviously gives Tesla a little bit more flexibility to potentially increase those over time.
接下来，V4 Superchargers。在过去几周里，我们已经谈了一点关于这个，V4 Supercharger的安装进程还在继续。所以法国的特斯拉车主俱乐部注意到又开设了一个20个充电桩的V4 Supercharger。我不确定这个具体是在法国的哪个地方，甚至不确定是不是在法国，我猜是的。抱歉。我想我们可能正在播放一些音乐。希望不是。再过一会儿我们会谈到这个。SpaceX正在进行另一次发射。但是V4 Supercharger很不错，很高兴能看到它们继续安装。如果我没记错的话，这应该是第四个了。所以这是第四个V4，但很高兴看到这个地点拥有相当多的充电桩。今天还有一些关于V4 Supercharger功率容量的帖子，至少看得出在基座上。它们的电压和电流都是1000伏特和1000安培，从技术上讲这意味着它们能够提供1兆瓦的功率。然而，显然它们可能不会同时从两者都完全使用最大电压和电流。而且现在的V3 Supercharger在功率方面更高一些，至少从基座一侧来看，能够提供高于250千瓦的充电功率。所以从这个意义上说，这并不意味着这些速率有多大。而且显然也取决于车辆本身。但我认为，这样做显然给特斯拉提供了更多的灵活性，以便随着时间的推移可能增加这些充电速率。
All right,
没问题，好的，可以的。
这个短语通常表示同意、保持积极态度或表示对某件事情的同意或答应。
Tesla has redesigned their website.
特斯拉重新设计了他们的网站。
这句话的意思是特斯拉公司对他们的网站进行了重新设计。
Maybe not a redesign, but updated their website and they've reconfigured sort of the navigation.
或许不是重新设计，而是更新了他们的网站，并重新配置了导航。
Previously, you had Model 3, Model Y, et cetera, up on top.
以前，你在顶部放置了Model 3、Model Y等等产品。
We had a navigation bar over here.
我们这里有一个导航栏。
Now they've divided this into categories.
现在他们把这分成了不同的类别。表达的意思是，现在他们将这个东西分门别类。
So vehicles, energy products, charging products, discover.
车辆、能源产品、充电产品，尽览一览。
So basically other navigation stuff and then the shop.
基本上就是其他的导航内容，然后是商店。
So kind of interesting to see that.
很有意思看到这个。
But similar feel and look to what we have seen from Tesla's website now for a while.
但与我们在特斯拉网站上一段时间看到的感觉和外观相似。
They are emphasizing now demo drives a little bit more.
他们现在更加注重演示试驾。
So that's kind of the primary link here outside of navigation is highlighting demo drives.
所以在导航之外，重点是展示演示驾驶。
And Tesla has also added demo drives into the referral program.
特斯拉还将试驾活动添加到了推荐计划中。翻译成易读的中文：而且，特斯拉还将试驾活动添加到了推荐计划中。
So if somebody uses your referral link and they sign up for a demo drive through that, you'll earn 100 referral award credits in the loot box.
如果有人使用您的推荐链接并通过该链接注册试驾，您将获得100个推荐奖励积分放入战利品箱。
So kind of interesting to see that.
真是有趣的事情看到这个。
And in the sense of that I don't recall Tesla having implemented in the referral program previously.
翻译成中文：从我记忆中来看，我不记得特斯拉以前在推荐计划中实施过这一点。
表达意思：这句话的意思是说，在我记忆中，我不记得特斯拉过去有在推荐计划中实施过这个功能。
So this is what it would look like if you follow a referral link into the demo drive.
所以，如果你通过推荐链接进入演示驾驶界面，它会是这个样子。
You just go in and pick what vehicle you want.
你只需要进去然后选择你想要的车辆。
It'll give you an option to go and find a location and schedule that demo drive.
它会为你提供一个选项，让你去找到一个地点并安排试驾的时间。
So interesting to see that, Tesla continuing to do a little bit more in terms of promotion like we've seen in recent weeks.
很有趣的是，特斯拉继续在推广方面做了更多的努力，正如我们在最近几周所看到的。
Tesla also sent out an email to current owners with FSD beta today highlighting that offer to FSD transferability before the end of the quarter.
特斯拉今天还向现有车主发送了一封电子邮件，强调在本季度结束之前可以转让全自动驾驶（FSD）功能的优惠。
All right.
好的。
And then last couple of things, just quick updates on Ford.
接下来是关于福特的最后几件事情的快速更新。
So more takeaways from their earnings call yesterday.
还有一些昨天他们的财报电话会议中的重点。
We talked a little bit about their EV plan shifting back, but they also talked more about hybrids and said that you're going to see a lot more hybrid systems from us.
我们谈到了他们的EV计划的调整，但他们还谈到了混合动力，并表示我们将会看到更多我们的混合动力系统。
So interesting to see that comment hand in hand with the delay of some of their EV targets and some of the comments that Farley had about demand being maybe a little bit slower for EVs.
看到这个评论与他们电动汽车目标的延迟以及法利对电动汽车需求可能会稍微慢一些的评论如此相关，真是太有趣了。
Now more of an emphasis on hybrids and it's also interesting given the context that we talked about with the inflation reduction act where there are some pretty significant incentives for hybrid vehicles. They can pretty much qualify for the full credits in a very similar way to a fully battery electric vehicle.
现在更加重视混合动力车，并且与我们讨论的通胀减少法案的背景相比，这也是很有意思的，因为对于混合动力汽车来说有相当大的激励措施。它们几乎可以以与纯电动汽车非常相似的方式获得全部信用。
So talked about how this may lead to problems down the road based on how that was written.
我们讨论了一下，根据那样的写法，这可能会导致今后出现问题。
And that could definitely be having an influence here in terms of what Ford is planning for their business.
这个可能会对福特的业务计划产生影响。
So not something that I am super thrilled to see.
这并不是我非常激动想看到的事情。
And I have been, I don't know, Ford kind of got to take on two sides.
而且，我一直在犹豫不决。我不知道，福特有点被左右两边的观点所影响。
I think they're making a really good effort, but I also think that there's things that they're doing that are a little bit lacking.
我认为他们正在付出真正的努力，但我也认为他们做的事情有些不足之处。
So it's tough.
所以这很困难。
And when they make comments like this, it gets a little bit tougher to be positive about where their business is heading.
当他们发表这样的评论时，对于他们的业务前景感到乐观变得困难了一些。
Certainly, I think Farley is making a great effort and hopefully they can get on the right track.
当然，我认为Farley正在做出巨大努力，希望他们能够走上正确的轨道。
But this seems to be a little bit of a deviation from what appeared to have been them being a little bit more on the right track.
但这似乎有点偏离他们似乎更朝着正确方向的走向。
So again, that goes hand in hand with some of their comments on EVs.
所以，这与他们对电动汽车的一些评论密切相关。
We talked about how the 600,000 production target that got pushed to sometime in 2024.
我们谈到了原计划为2024年的60万产能目标被推迟的事情。
So it could be a year or more delay on their previous target.
因此，他们之前的目标可能会延迟一年甚至更长时间。
And then they'd also said that they were going to be targeting 2 million per year by the end of 2026.
然后他们还表示，他们计划到2026年底每年将目标定在200万。
But now they have just removed that target.
但现在他们刚刚取消了那个目标。
And they say that they don't know when they'll achieve that volume.
他们说他们不知道什么时候能达到那个数量。
So again, not super inspiring in terms of their confidence on their production run rates for EVs.
再次，就他们对电动车生产速率的自信程度而言，这并不令人非常鼓舞。
And then lastly for today, you can see we're about 15 minutes out now from another attempt.
然后最后, 你可以看到我们离下一次尝试还有大约15分钟的时间。
We had this on the live stream earlier this week, another attempt at the Falcon Heavy launch for the largest commercial satellite put in orbit in history.
本周早些时候我们在直播中就此进行了报道，这是为了使史上最大的商业卫星成功进入轨道的猎鹰重型火箭发射的另一次尝试。
So hopefully this one goes off.
希望这次一切顺利。
It seems like I think SpaceX tweeted they have a 90% probability of favorable weather. So I did put a link to the description to that live stream. If you want to jump over there after we wrap this up, which will be right now.
看起来SpaceX发推特说他们有90%的有利天气概率。所以我已经在描述中放了一个链接到那个直播。如果我们结束后你想转去看的话，就现在吧。
So hope everybody has a great weekend. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast.
希望大家有个愉快的周末。一如既往，感谢大家的聆听。别忘了订阅并打开通知。你也可以在Twitter上找到我，账号是Tesla podcast。
And we'll see you on Monday for the July 31st episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
我们会在周一的7月31日的《特斯拉日报》节目中见到你。谢谢。