The Signal This Tesla Customer Just Sent / RJ Scaringe Interview / Chinese EV Market Disruption ⚡️
发布时间 2023-07-29 06:16:38 来源
摘要
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00:00 - EV Demand
00:30 - Tesla Customer Signal
4:12 - Demo Drive Credits
4:53 - My Wife Drops In (Flexispot)
6:36 - Project Highland
6:51 - Tesla India
7:30 - EV Charger Dilemma
8:42 - Purpose Built Facility Opens
9:09 - Another V4 Station Opens
9:24 - False Alarm Giga Texas
9:44 - Porsche Charging Lounges
10:37 - RJ Scaringe Interview
11:45 - Vinfast Factory
12:23 - China EV Disruption
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Full RJ Interview: https://heatmap.news/electric-vehicles/rivian-ceo-rj-scaringe-r2
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#TeslaNews #RJScaringe #EVNews
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中英文字稿 
And the market share of EVs is about 7%, which is about double what it was last year. The problem is that demand for EVs is not keeping up with production, right? You have, you know, all the automakers introducing these new products this year, there's a lot more coming next year. And, you know, when you look at some of the barriers, like price, range, and charging infrastructures, you know, getting early adopters to buy your product is one thing. Let's see, getting mass adoption is a whole lot harder.
现在电动汽车的市场份额约为7%，比去年增长了一倍左右。问题是，电动汽车的需求无法跟上生产速度，对吗？你知道，今年所有汽车制造商都在推出这些新产品，而明年还会有更多。而且，当我们考虑到一些障碍，比如价格、续航里程和充电基础设施，引进早期采用者购买产品是一回事。但是要实现大规模普及则更加困难。
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Loomis. One of Tesla's customers just signaled to the world that Tesla's megapacks are going to help boost its profits dramatically here in the coming years. It should go without saying, but in this renewable transition, many companies that are looking to rethink their business model, they're all asking one question, what do the financials or the economics look like?
欢迎来到Electrified，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。特斯拉的一个客户刚刚向世界宣示，特斯拉的超级电池组将在接下来的几年大大提升其利润。毋庸置疑，在可再生能源转型中，许多公司都在重新思考其商业模式，他们都在问一个问题，即财务或经济状况如何？
In case you forgot about the actual project when we first talked about it, Neilin is looking to build a massive four-hour battery in Western Australia, near the town of Cauley, initially the first phase 877 megawatt hours, divided by roughly 4 megawatt hours per Tesla megapack, and that's about 220 Tesla megapacks. But let's say this project does scale to the expected 4 gigawatt hour number, that's 4.5 times bigger than phase 1.
如果你忘记了我们刚开始讨论时的实际项目，尼林公司计划在澳大利亚西部，靠近考利镇建造一个大规模的四小时电池。最初的第一阶段是877兆瓦时，大约相当于220个特斯拉超级电池组（每个容量为4兆瓦时）。但假设该项目能够扩大到预期的4吉瓦时规模，那将是第一阶段容量的4.5倍。
So if this entire project were to use Tesla megapacks, which is certainly an option, you would take the number of megapacks for phase 1, multiply that by 4.5, this project in total could be pushing 1000 Tesla megapacks. Times about 2 million dollars per megapack, this project alone could bring Tesla almost 2 billion dollars. Throw on a 25% margin and that would generate Tesla almost a half a billion dollars. In an announcement from Neilin, they lifted their forecast for operating earnings in 2025 by about 160 million dollars per year. And while Neilin said not all of that profit derives from the battery deal, given the short time frame, it suggests it accounts for a large part.
所以，如果整个项目采用特斯拉的超级电池组（megapacks），这当然是一个选择，你将把一期的超级电池组数量乘以4.5，整个项目可能使用约1000个特斯拉超级电池组。以每个超级电池组大约2百万美元的价格计算，仅这个项目就能给特斯拉带来接近20亿美元的收入。再加上25%的利润率，这将为特斯拉创造将近5亿美元的利润。Neilin（一家公司）在一份声明中表示，他们预计2025年的运营收益将增加大约1.6亿美元。虽然Neilin表示并非所有利润都来自于电池交易，但考虑到短期时间框架，这表明电池交易占据了很大一部分。
Without getting into specifics, if you hear about one of the bigger challenges in the shift to renewables being a solar duck curve, it's really just the fall of minimum demand levels during a certain time of the day, that this project specifically is supposed to help smooth out and essentially elevate. This was a super helpful infographic, so just think if the system load in terms of megawatts drops below roughly 600 megawatts at a certain time of the day, it leads to a potential for grid instability. So this project with Tesla is expected to help boost these minimal demand levels during the middle of the day.
不去深入细节， 如果你听说在转型可再生能源中面临的一个较大挑战是太阳能鸭曲线，实际上只是指一天中某一特定时间最低需求水平的下降，而这个项目具体旨在平衡并提高这种水平。这个信息图非常有帮助，可以简单地将系统负荷以兆瓦计算，如果在一天的某个特定时间，系统负荷下降到大约600兆瓦以下，这就可能导致电网不稳定。因此，预计特斯拉的这个项目将有助于提高这些中午时段的最低需求水平。
This project between Tesla and Neilin is set to come online in 2025 and is likely to be one of the most profitable assets in the Owens portfolio. The neo and CEO just said batteries usually deliver higher returns than wind and solar farms and the Owen is looking at a target IRR for this project at the higher end of its range around 8.5% getting as close as possible to 10% and these batteries are meant to deliver better IRRs than the wind and solar projects.
这个特斯拉和尼林之间的项目计划于2025年启动，并有可能成为欧文斯投资组合中最有利可图的资产之一。尼尔和首席执行官刚刚表示，相比风力和太阳能电厂，电池通常能提供更高的回报率，欧文斯希望此项目的目标内部收益率（IRR）能达到其范围内较高的水平，约为8.5%，尽可能接近10%。这些电池旨在提供比风能和太阳能项目更好的IRR。
This is a slow moving industry, projects take years to develop and go through discussions. However, as more and more companies look to the Owen as kind of a leader in the renewable transition and they look at their portfolio and say one of their most profitable projects is a battery energy storage system using Tesla megapacks. What do you think is going to happen and perhaps equally as important, this isn't just selling some products at a great profit, it's also going to be solving real problems. Just think of the duck.
这是一个进展缓慢的行业，项目开发和讨论需要数年的时间。然而，随着越来越多的公司把Owen视为可再生能源转型的领导者，并且审视他们的项目组合，发现其中最有利可图的项目是使用特斯拉巨型电池组的电池储能系统。你认为会发生什么，也许同样重要的是，这不仅仅是以巨大利润销售一些产品，它还将解决真实的问题。想想那只“鸭子”。
Last thing I'll say, this one project, if it does hit 4 gigawatt hours using all Tesla megapacks and using our very rough napkin math, it would translate to about 15 cents per share in earnings for Tesla from one project. I wanted to spend some time on this because plenty of people in the Tesla space still do not appreciate Tesla energy nor do they really get excited by it. I understand it's not as consumer facing. However, from an investor standpoint, the future looks incredibly bright.
最后一件事，关于这个项目，如果它能够利用所有的特斯拉超级电池组和我们粗略的草稿计算，实现4千兆瓦时的电量，那么这将为特斯拉带来每股大约15美分的收益。我想花点时间谈谈这个问题，因为特斯拉领域仍然有很多人不重视特斯拉能源，也不太对其感到兴奋。我知道这与消费者关系不大。然而，从投资者的角度来看，未来看起来非常光明。
You can now earn referral credits through offering up demo drives to other people, you're not going to earn very many credits however, I really like this one because like we always talk about good things happen when you get new butts into Tesla seats. We can explain things and talk about Tesla until we're blue in the face, but oftentimes the best thing we can do is get somebody into a Tesla, let them experience it for themselves. You'll only earn 100 credits, but if the demo drive is a success, you'll automatically earn referral credits when they buy their new Tesla. One more tool in our support the movement kit. When you click on someone's demo drive link, you choose the vehicle you're interested in, plug in your nearest location and you're off.
现在你可以通过向其他人提供试驾来获得推荐积分，尽管你不会赚很多积分，但我非常喜欢这个功能，因为我们经常说当你让新的人坐进特斯拉座位时，好事情就会发生。我们可以解释和谈论特斯拉到我们嗓子发疼，但通常我们能做的最好的事情就是让别人亲自体验一下。你只能赚取100积分，但如果试驾成功，当他们购买新特斯拉时，你将自动获得推荐积分。这是我们“支持这一运动”的又一个工具。当你点击某人的试驾链接时，你可以选择你感兴趣的车辆，输入你最近的位置，然后出发。
Speaking of butts in seats, you guys haven't seen Ashley in a while so I figured it was time for her to make an appearance. We got her an adjustable standing desk from FlexiSpot that she's been loving and fast forward to now, you guessed it, FlexiSpot is sponsoring this video. True story, I remember I was going to record some footage of her putting the desk together for her channel but she assembled the entire desk in about 15 minutes and I miss the entire thing so my bad.
说到坐在位子上，你们已经有一段时间没有见到Ashley了，所以我觉得是时候让她露个面了。我们给她买了一张来自FlexiSpot的可调节站立桌，她非常喜欢。现在快进到现在，你猜对了，FlexiSpot正在赞助这个视频。真实的故事，我记得当时我本来想给她的频道录一些她组装桌子的片段，但她仅用了大约15分钟就将整个桌子装好了，我错过了整个过程，抱歉。
But clearly it's a breeze to assemble, I literally did not help her do it at all. Ashley wanted an affordable standing desk after watching me stand to edit videos the past few years while I myofascial release my feet. The desk we chose is the FlexiSpot com-har standing desk with a glass top but you can of course customize your desk finishes, setup, and accessories. Ashley's for example has a drawer that her old desk did not have as well as three USB ports conveniently built in right on the front and out of the way. This one has memory presets for the height adjustment or you can just use the arrows to set it exactly where you want it each time. It's quiet and smooth, exactly how you'd want it. I did go ahead and put it through some intense unnecessary testing as well and it passed with flying colors.
但是很明显，组装非常简单，我实际上没有给她提供任何帮助。几年来，阿什利看我站着剪辑视频，并进行足部肌筋膜释放后，她也想要一张价格合理的升降桌。我们选择了一个具有玻璃面板的FlexiSpot com-har升降桌，但是你当然可以根据自己的喜好自定义桌子的装饰、设置和配件。阿什利的桌子比她以前的桌子还多配备了一个抽屉，还有三个方便地内置在桌子前部但又不占位置的USB端口。这款升降桌有高度调节的记忆预设功能，或者你也可以使用箭头键将它每次都调整到你想要的位置。它的运行声音平稳而安静，正如你所期望的那样。此外，我还给它进行了一些强大但不必要的测试，结果表现出色。
Ashley loves the flexibility of sitting or standing and she's been pleased with the durability and stability even when the desk is raised. We're big on value in the Loomis household and for the money we both agreed this is a great value. Even if you're not ready for a desk now, save this video and the link below and when the time comes you can get 10% off a purchase over $300 with my code electrified, the link will be below. Enjoy.
Ashley喜欢坐立自如的灵活性，她对这张桌子在升高时的耐用性和稳定性感到非常满意。在卢米斯家庭中，我们非常重视物超所值，就钱而言，我们都同意这个产品是非常超值的。即使你现在还没有准备好购买一张桌子，也请保存这个视频和下方的链接，当时机成熟时，你可以使用我的代码"electrified"在购买超过300美元的产品时享受9折优惠，链接将会在下方提供。祝愉快！
Here we have a few shots of Project Hyland sightings. These ones are from Neil. Let me know if you guys want to keep seeing these. I know at some point it's like all right we've seen this enough already, especially when it's tough to point out anything new. But for now, there you have it.
这里有一些《海兰德项目》目击的照片。这些是尼尔拍摄的。如果你们还想继续看的话，请告诉我。我知道到某个点为止可能已经足够了，尤其是当很难找出新的东西时。但暂时就是这样。
The Tesla negotiations with India are still underway. Two senior Tesla execs discuss the company's plans to enter India with officials from the country's investment promotion arm. Tesla's business development executive Rohan Patel and vice president for the supply chain, Roshan Thomas are currently in New Delhi and Met officials from the Invest India Agency. They both met with Invest India's CEO, Nivru Ti Rai and they held talks yesterday on Thursday. Per the usual, this is just a report on that. It's happening not what exactly is happening, but we know the conversations are most likely centered around the EV factory and setting up a supply chain for Tesla in the area. This is one I'd be very curious to get your thoughts on because I can definitely see both sides.
特斯拉与印度的谈判仍在进行中。两位高级特斯拉高管与印度投资促进机构的官员讨论公司进入印度的计划。特斯拉的业务发展执行官Rohan Patel和供应链副总裁Roshan Thomas目前在新德里，并与印度投资机构“投资印度”（Invest India Agency）的官员会面。他们与“投资印度”的首席执行官Nivru Ti Rai会晤，并于上周四进行了讨论。通常情况下，这只是一份报告。我们并不知道具体发生了什么，但我们知道这些谈话很可能集中在建立电动汽车工厂和为特斯拉在该地区建立供应链方面。我非常想知道你们的看法，因为我确实能够理解双方的立场。
Four Republican senators are seeking to reverse a Biden administration decision to waive the by America requirements for government funded EV charging stations. The law to get the federal money, these EV charging companies must obtain at least 55% of construction materials like iron and steel from domestic sources and be totally made in the United States. The sourcing requirements go into effect summer of 2024. However, on the other side of the coin, you have some EV charging companies saying it's difficult if not impossible to meet these made in America standards to expedite the construction of new chargers, saying wait times for some electrical components ranged from 60 to 80 weeks without considering the increased demand created by new federal funding. Almost a two year delay for some of these electrical components, so which side would you lean toward allowing people to buy the components now from elsewhere to get these chargers up and running faster or enforce those stricter requirements from sourcing from the US and maybe actually delay the rollout of these charging stations.
四名共和党参议员正寻求撤销拜登政府关于政府资助的电动车充电站豁免“美国制造”的决定。根据法律，这些电动车充电公司必须至少从国内来源获取55%的建筑材料（如铁和钢材），并且全部在美国制造，才能获得联邦资金。这些采购要求将于2024年夏季生效。然而，另一方面，一些电动车充电公司表示很难，如果不是不可能，满足美国制造的标准，以促进新充电器的建设，称某些电子元件的等待时间为60至80周，而不考虑新联邦资金创造的需求增加。对于这些电子元件来说，几乎要延迟两年时间，那么你倾向于哪一方呢？允许人们现在从其他地方购买这些组件以更快地建设这些充电站，还是强制执行从美国采购的更严格要求，可能实际上延迟充电站的推出？
We've touched on this location a few times the past few weeks, but they had their grand opening ceremony so now officially open. Tesla's first purpose built facility in Canada. It's a 35,000 square foot facility, 31,000 of which will be for a service area. Given this location should be able to handle any type of service, the few of you on Vancouver Island who have been traveling for service, hopefully those travel days are over. Esther again sharing some pictures of the fifth V4 supercharging station in the world. This one in Ren, France. That's three V4 stations open this week. Still no word on boosting the speeds up past 250 kilowatts.
我们在过去几个星期已经提到过这个地点几次，但是现在他们举行了盛大的开幕典礼，现在正式开业。这是特斯拉在加拿大的第一个专门建造的设施。这是一个35,000平方英尺的设施，其中31,000平方英尺将用于服务区。考虑到这个位置应该能够处理任何类型的服务，对于那些过去为了服务而旅行的温哥华岛的几个人来说，希望现在他们的旅行日子过去了。Esther再次分享了法国雷恩市世界上第五个V4超级充电站的照片。这是本周内开放的三个V4充电站。至今为止还没有关于将速度提升到250千瓦以上的消息。
I'm only sharing this one because I know some of you are near the Austin area and there was a lot of commotion and traffic around Giga, Texas this morning. It was a false alarm for an active shooter. It's a weird story, but the short take away they found nothing out of the ordinary, no casualties, no sounds gunfire, nothing to substantiate the presence of a shooter at all.
我只是分享这件事是因为我知道你们中的一些人在奥斯汀地区附近，今天早上在特斯拉吉加超级工厂附近发生了很多骚动和交通拥堵。这是一个关于活动射击事件的虚假警报。这是一个很奇怪的故事，但简而言之，他们没有发现任何异常的情况，没有伤亡，没有枪声，没有任何证据证实存在一名射击者。
To put it on your radar, Porsche has been rolling out these lounges or charging hubs in the European market and the question becomes, will they roll this out in the States? Maybe when they have more EVs actually available. This lounge in particular has six 300 kilowatt DC fast charging stalls, but more on that in a second. These lounges are open 24 seven offering spacious and luxurious interiors stocked with snacks and soft drinks. They do have some neat features for entry into the lounge, not just anybody can walk in. One example being automatic license plate recognition systems that let the cars in. This lounge actually has one of those smart workout mirrors for anybody looking for a quick pump. Porsche is rolling these out in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland so far. And when it comes to these lounges, now Porsche is talking about by the start of next year 2024 400 kilowatts should be possible.
为了让你了解，保时捷已开始在欧洲市场推出这些休息室或充电站，问题是，他们是否会在美国推出？可能要等到他们有更多电动车实际上可用时。这个休息室特别设有六个300千瓦的直流快速充电桩，但稍后再详细介绍。这些休息室全天24小时开放，提供宽敞豪华的内部环境，并备有零食和软饮料。他们为进入休息室设有一些独特的功能，不是每个人都能进去。一个例子是自动车牌识别系统，可以让车辆进入。这个休息室实际上还有一个智能健身镜，方便任何人进行快速锻炼。保时捷目前在德国、奥地利和瑞士推出这些休息室。至于这些休息室，保时捷现在正在讨论到2024年年初可能达到400千瓦的充电功率。
I want to highlight a few things from a recent RJ Scuringe interview with Heatmap. RJ was talking about how buying an ice powered vehicle is sort of like building a horse barn in 1910, just buying a product that really has no future in our society. And he said, I think we're one product cycle away from that really driving consumer demand. The thought process of I don't want to buy something that's going to be a relic of the past. RJ is guessing this shift in consumer sentiment could happen toward the end of this decade, thinking about standing out like the weird person still driving an ice vehicle, it's just going to swing really fast. RJ's answer to the biggest hurdle to electrification right now consumer choice not enough EVs available in different price points. Obvious answer RJ confirmed with the R2 program, they're still tracking 440 to $45,000 in that neighborhood. The latest timing for the R2 platform coming to the market beginning of 2026. On the R2 platform RJ said there's been a dramatic focus on part simplification, joint simplification and manufacturability. So it's a very, very different architecture than what we did on the R1.
我想强调一下最近RJ Scuringe在Heatmap的一次采访中说的几件事情。RJ谈到购买一辆动力车辆有点像1910年修建一个马厩，只是购买一个在我们社会没有未来的产品。他说，我认为我们离真正推动消费需求只有一个产品周期的距离。这是一种思维过程，我不想购买将成为过去的遗迹。RJ猜测这种消费者情绪的转变可能会在本十年末发生，考虑到像一个奇怪的人仍然驾驶一辆动力车辆那样与众不同，它会转变得非常迅速。RJ对电气化面临的最大障碍的答案是现在消费者选择不够，不同价格段的电动车辆不足。显然，RJ证实了R2计划，他们仍然在追踪440到$45,000左右的价格范围。R2平台最新上市时间为2026年初。关于R2平台，RJ表示在零部件简化、连接简化和可制造性方面有着显著的关注。因此，它是一个非常非常不同的框架，与我们在R1上所做的不同。
Vin fast has not been deterred by a questionable North American rollout. They're officially starting construction on their first manufacturing facility outside of Vietnam. This one 30 miles southwest of Raleigh. The plan is to open in 2025 with an initial production capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year. Honestly, I wasn't sure this one was going to happen, but now it'll definitely be something to watch.
VinFast并没有被北美市场的不确定性所打击。他们正式开始在越南国外的第一座制造工厂的建设。这个工厂位于罗利市西南30英里处。计划于2025年开放，并初期产能为每年15万辆车。老实说，我之前对这个计划的实现还不确定，但现在将成为值得关注的一件事情。
Just a quick fun fact in the last year alone, most likely due to the introduction of the IRA, there have been $72 billion of new announcements for battery factories and EV manufacturing plants. We won't get into the detail of this one, we've talked over the past few weeks about the resetting going on in the Chinese EV market, new partnerships, companies pulling back, others doubling down, there's a lot changing. But I had to share, Tesla was the only foreign brand to take share in the first half of this year, topping BMW in popularity. And just as a reminder, the conversation point still needs to be said, many of these Chinese automakers that may be seeing increases in share or market share, many remain unprofitable, but they have the ability to play the long game, being funded in some part by the government.
仅仅在过去的一年里，很可能是由于引入了工业互联网（IRA），新宣布的电池工厂和电动汽车制造厂投资达到了720亿美元。这次我们不详细讨论，过去几周我们已经谈论了中国电动汽车市场的重启，新的合作伙伴关系，公司的撤退和其他公司的加倍投入，有很多变化。但我不得不分享一下，特斯拉是今年上半年唯一一家在中国市场中占据份额的外国品牌，超过宝马成为最受欢迎的品牌。并且我们还需要提醒一下，许多获得份额或市场份额增长的中国汽车制造商仍然没有盈利，但它们有能力进行长期布局，并在一定程度上由政府提供资金支持。
The COO of Kia China said, we allow our enemies to fight first and we will come back with bags of money and technologies to take them. And the Germans who are being squeezed on both sides by the Chinese competition and Tesla, the three luxury brands managed to hold share flat in China in the first half of this year, after some dealer discounts that topped 25%.
起亚汽车中国首席运营官表示，我们允许我们的竞争对手先行出击，而我们将带着满载的金钱和技术回来击败他们。而德国汽车品牌则在中国市场上遭受到来自中国竞争对手和特斯拉的夹击，不过这三个豪华品牌在今年上半年设定了超过25%的经销商折扣后，成功地保持了市场份额稳定。
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