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Meta 2023 Q2 Earnings Call

发布时间 2023-07-28 08:56:41    来源

中英文字稿  

Good afternoon. My name is Dave and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Meta Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
下午好。我的名字是戴夫,我将是今天的电话会议操作员。此时,我想欢迎大家参加Meta第二季度收益电话会议。为了防止任何背景噪音,所有线路已被设置为静音状态。

After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1, then the number 4 on your telephone keypad. This call will be recorded. Thank you very much.
在发言人发表讲话之后,将进行问答环节。如果您想提问,请按下您电话键盘上的数字1,然后再按下数字4。此次通话将被记录下来。非常感谢。

Kendarell, Meta Director and Investor Relations, you may begin.
肯德雷尔,元总监和投资者关系的负责人,你可以开始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to Meta Platform's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Mark Zuckerberg, CEO and Susan Lee, CFO.
谢谢大家。下午好,欢迎参加Meta平台2023年第二季度收益电话会议。今天与我一同讨论我们的业绩的有首席执行官马克·扎克伯格和首席财务官苏珊·李。

Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in today's press release and in our quarterly report on Form 10Q, filed with the SEC.
在我们开始之前,我想借此机会提醒您,我们今天的发言将包含前瞻性陈述。实际结果可能与这些前瞻性陈述所拟构思的有所不同。可能导致结果出现重大差异的因素已在今天的新闻稿和我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的季度10Q表中阐明。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
我们在此通话中所作的任何前瞻性声明都是基于今天的假设,并且我们没有责任根据新信息或未来事件更新这些声明。

During this call, we will present both GAP and certain non-GAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAP to non-GAP measures is included in today's earnings press release. The press release and an accompanying investor presentation are available on our website at investor.fb.com.
在这个电话会议上,我们将介绍GAP和某些非GAP的财务指标。GAP和非GAP指标之间的调整在今天的盈利新闻发布中有提供。新闻稿和附带的投资者演示文稿可在我们的网站investor.fb.com上获得。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Mark.
现在我愿意把话筒转给马克。

Thanks, Ken. Thanks, everyone, for joining. This was a good quarter for our business. We're seeing strong engagement trends across our apps. There are now more than 3.8 billion people who use at least one of our apps every month. This book now has more than 3 billion monthly active with daily active continuing to grow around the world, including in the US and Canada.
谢谢,肯恩。谢谢大家加入。对我们的业务来说,这是一个不错的季度。我们的应用程序正在经历强劲的用户参与趋势。每个月使用我们至少一款应用程序的人数已超过38亿。这本书每月活跃用户已达30亿,并且每日活跃用户在全球范围内不断增长,包括在美国和加拿大。

In addition to our core products performing well, I think we have the most exciting roadmap ahead that I've seen in a while. We've got continued progress on threads, reels, llama2, and some groundbreaking AI products in the pipeline as well as the Quest 3 launch coming up this fall. We're heads down executing on all this right now. And it's really good to see the decisions and investments we've made start to play out.
除了我们的核心产品表现良好之外,我认为我们的路线图是我近期见过最令人兴奋的。除了我们正在进行的thread,reels,llama2以及一些突破性的AI产品外,我们还有即将在今年秋季发布的Quest 3。我们正在全力以赴地推进所有这些工作。真的很高兴看到我们所做决策和投资开始发挥作用。

On threads, briefly, I'm quite optimistic about our trajectory here. We saw unprecedented growth out of the gate. And more importantly, we're seeing more people coming back daily than I'd expected. And now we're focused on retention and improving the basics. And then after that, we'll focus on growing the community to the scale that we think is going to be possible. Only after that, are we going to focus on monetization. We've run this playbook many times before with Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, stories, reels, and more. And this is as good of a start as we can have hoped for. So I'm really happy with the path that we're on here.
关于帖子,简而言之,我对我们在这里的轨迹非常乐观。我们在刚开始时就见证了前所未有的增长。更重要的是,我们看到比我预期的更多的人每天都回来了。现在我们的重点是留住这些用户并改善基本功能。然后,在这之后,我们会专注于将社区发展到我们认为可能的规模。只有在这之后,我们才会关注盈利。我们之前在Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp、stories、reels等方面已经多次实践过这个策略。而现在我们的起步已经是非常好的了,所以我对我们目前的发展道路感到非常开心。

One note I want to mention about the Thread's launch related to our year of efficiency is that the product was built by a relatively small team on a tight timeline. We've already seen a number of examples of how our users or a leaner organization and some of the cultural changes that we've made can build higher quality products faster. And this is probably the biggest example so far.
关于与我们的效率之年相关的产品发布,我想提及的一点是,这款产品是由一个相对较小的团队在紧迫的时间表下建立的。我们已经看到了许多例子,说明我们的用户或更精简的组织以及我们所做的一些文化变革可以更快地构建出更高质量的产品。而这可能是迄今为止最大的一个例子。

The year of efficiency was always about two different goals, becoming an even stronger technology company and improving our financial results so we can invest aggressively in our ambitious long-term roadmap. Now that we've gotten through the major layoffs, the rest of 2023 will be about creating stability for employees, removing barriers that slow us down, introducing new AI-powered tools to speed us up, and so on.
效率之年始终关注两个不同的目标,成为一家更强大的技术公司并改善我们的财务业绩,以便能够大胆投资于我们雄心勃勃的长期计划。如今我们已经度过了重大裁员,接下来的2023年将致力于为员工创造稳定,消除阻碍我们发展的障碍,引入新的基于人工智能的工具来提高我们的速度等等。

Over the next few months, we're going to start planning for 2024. And I'm going to be focused on continuing to run the company as lean as possible for these cultural reasons, even though our financial results have improved. I expect that we're still going to hire in key areas, but newly budgeted headcount growth is going to be relatively low. That said, as part of this year's layoffs, many teams chose to let people go in order to hire different people with different skills that they need, so much of that hiring is going to spill into 2024.
在接下来的几个月里,我们将开始为2024年的计划。尽管我们的财务业绩有所提高,但出于文化原因,我将专注于尽可能地使公司运营更加精简。我预计我们仍然会在关键领域进行招聘,但新预算的员工增长率将相对较低。话虽如此,在今年的裁员中,许多团队选择让人们离职,以便雇佣具有不同所需技能的新员工,因此这些招聘将延续到2024年。

The other major budget point that we're working through is what the right level of AI CapEx is to support our roadmap. Since we don't know how quickly our new AI products will grow, we may not have a clear handle on this until later in the year.
我们正在处理的另一个重要预算点是确定支持我们路线图的人工智能(AI)资本支出的适当水平。由于我们不知道我们的新AI产品将以何种速度增长,可能要到年底才能清楚掌握这个情况。

Now moving on to our product roadmap, I've said on a number of these calls that the two technological waves that we're riding are AI in the near term and the metaverse over the longer term.
现在让我们来谈谈我们的产品路线图,我在一些电话会议中多次提到我们正在追随的两个技术浪潮,一个是短期内的人工智能(AI),另一个则是更长期的元宇宙(Metaverse)。

Investments that we've made over the years in AI, including the billions of dollars we've spent on AI infrastructure, are clearly paying off across our ranking and recommendation systems and improving engagement and monetization.
多年来,我们在人工智能领域的投资已经取得了明显的回报,包括在人工智能基础设施上花费了数十亿美元。这些投资明显地体现在我们的排名和推荐系统以及用户参与度和盈利能力的提升上。

AI-recommended content from accounts you don't follow is now the fastest growing category of content on Facebook's feed. Since introducing these recommendations, they've driven a 7% increase in overall time spent on the platform. This improves the experience because you can now discover things that you might not have otherwise followed or come across.
AI推荐的来自你未关注账户的内容现在是Facebook新鲜推送中增长最快的类别之一。自从引入这些推荐以来,它们带来了平台上总时间使用的7%增长。这一改进提升了使用体验,因为现在你可以发现一些本来可能没有关注或接触到的事物。

Reels is a key part of this discovery engine and Reels plays exceed 200 billion per day across Facebook and Instagram. We're seeing good progress on Reels monetization as well with the annual revenue run rate across our apps now exceeding $10 billion up from $3 billion last fall.
"Reels是这个发现引擎的关键组成部分,每天在Facebook和Instagram上的Reels播放次数超过2000亿。我们在Reels的货币化方面也取得了良好的进展,我们应用程序的年收入运营速度已经超过了100亿美元,相比去年秋季的30亿美元有了显著增长。"

Beyond Reels, AI is driving results across our monetization tools. There are automated ads products, which we call meta advantage. Almost all our advertisers are using at least one of our AI-driven products. We've also deployed MetaLattice, a new model architecture that learns to predict an ad's performance across a variety of data sets and optimization goals. We introduced AI Sandbox, a testing playground for generative AI powered tools like automatic text variation, background generation, and image outcropping.
除了传统电影,人工智能还在我们的盈利工具中推动结果。我们有自动化广告产品,我们称之为元优势。几乎所有的广告商都在使用我们至少一种基于人工智能的产品。我们还推出了MetaLattice,这是一个新的模型架构,可以通过各种数据集和优化目标学习预测广告的效果。我们还推出了AI沙盒,这是一个测试环境,用于生成式人工智能工具,如自动文本变体、背景生成和图像裁剪。

Business messaging is another key piece of our monetization strategy. We recently announced that the 200 million users of our WhatsApp business app will now be able to create click-to-WhatsApp ads for Facebook and Instagram without needing a Facebook account. This is a pretty big unlock, particularly in countries where WhatsApp is often the first step to bring a business online.
商业消息传递是我们盈利策略的又一个重要组成部分。我们最近宣布,WhatsApp商业应用的2亿用户现在可以在Facebook和Instagram上创建“点击WhatsApp”广告,而无需拥有Facebook账号。这是一个相当重要的突破,尤其对于那些WhatsApp常常是企业开始在线经营的第一步的国家来说。

Paid messaging is a bit earlier, but it's also showing good adoption. The number of businesses using our paid messaging products has doubled year over year. While we're on messaging, I'll mention that we started rolling out channels on WhatsApp last month. It's a simple, reliable and private way to receive important updates from people and organizations. I'm quite excited for more people to try it as we bring the product to more countries through the rest of this year.
付费短信的普及稍早一些,但也取得了良好的用户接受度。使用我们付费短信产品的企业数量同比增长了一倍。另外,在说到短信方面,我想提一下,我们上个月开始在WhatsApp上推出了渠道服务。这是一个简单、可靠且私密的接收来自个人和组织的重要更新的方式。我非常期待更多人在今年剩下的时间里试用这个产品时,我们将在更多国家推广它。

Beyond the recommendations and ranking systems across our products, we're also building meeting foundation models to support a new generation of AI products. We partnered with Microsoft to open source llama2, the latest version of our large language model and to make it available for both research and commercial use.
除了我们产品中的推荐和排名系统之外,我们还正在构建会议基础模型,以支持新一代的人工智能产品。我们与微软合作,开源了我们的最新版大型语言模型llama2,并使其可供研究和商业使用。

We have a long history of open sourcing our infrastructure and AI work from PyTorch, which is the leading machine learning framework to models like segment anything, image bind and Dino to basic infrastructure as part of the open compute project. We found that open sourcing our work allows the industry, including us, to benefit from innovations that come from everywhere. These are often improvements in safety and security since open source software is more scrutinized and more people can find and identify fixes for issues. The improvements also often come in the form of efficiency gains, which should hopefully allow us and others to run these models with less infrastructure investment going forward.
我们有着长期开源我们的基础设施和人工智能工作的历史,从领先的机器学习框架PyTorch到诸如segment anything、image bind和Dino等模型,以及作为开放计算项目的一部分的基础设施。我们发现,开源我们的工作能让整个行业,包括我们自己,从各个方面的创新中受益。这些创新通常体现在安全性和保密性方面的改进,因为开源软件更加受到审视,更多的人可以发现和修复问题。这些改进也通常以效率提升的形式出现,希望这将使我们和其他人在未来的运行这些模型时少投入一些基础设施投资。

So I'm really looking forward to seeing the improvements that the community makes to llama2. We were also building a number of new products ourselves using llama that will work across our services. I'm going to share more details on that later this year, but you can imagine lots of ways that AI can help people connect and express themselves in our apps. Creative tools that make it easier and more fun to share content. Agents that act as assistants, coaches, or that can help you interact with businesses and creators and more. These new products will improve everything that we do across both mobile apps and the metaverse, helping people create worlds and the avatars and objects that inhabit them as well.
所以,我非常期待看到社区对llama2所做的改进。我们也正在利用llama自己构建许多新产品,这些产品将在我们的服务中使用。今年晚些时候,我将分享更多细节,但是你可以想象到AI在我们的应用程序中可以帮助人们建立联系和表达自己的方式有很多。创造性工具可以使分享内容变得更加容易和有趣。代理人可以充当助手、教练,或者帮助您与企业和创作者进行互动等。这些新产品将改进我们在移动应用程序和元宇宙中所做的所有工作,帮助人们创建世界、居住其中的化身和物体。

Our investments in AI continue. We remain fully committed to the metaverse vision as well. We've been working on both of these two major priorities for many years in parallel now. In many ways, the two areas are overlapping and complementary.
我们对人工智能的投资还在继续。我们对元宇宙愿景也一直保持着充分的承诺。我们已经多年来同时在这两个主要优先领域进行工作。在很多方面,这两个领域是重叠和互补的。

The next big thing on the reality lab side is the launch of our Quest 3 mixed reality headset at Connect. It's our most powerful headset yet with better displays and resolution and next-gen Qualcomm chipset with twice the graphics performance. It will also have the best immersive content library out there and it's 40% thinner than Quest 2. It's mixed reality seamlessly blends your physical world and the virtual one by intelligently understanding the physical space around you. We pioneered mixed reality with our Quest Pro headset and Quest 3 takes that to the next level.
现实实验室方面的下一个重大突破是我们将在Connect发布的Quest 3混合现实头盔。这是我们迄今为止最强大的头盔,拥有更好的显示和分辨率,以及下一代高通芯片组,图形性能是上一代的两倍。它还将拥有最好的沉浸式内容库,并且比Quest 2薄40%。通过智能地理解您周围的物理空间,它将混合现实无缝地融合您的现实世界和虚拟世界。我们曾以Quest Pro头盔开创了混合现实领域,而Quest 3将把这一领域推向更高水平。

Others in the industry are of course working on bringing mixed reality to the market too but Quest 3 is going to be the first mainstream accessible device that we expect many millions of people will get to experience this technology with.
当然,该行业中的其他人也在努力将混合现实技术引入市场,但是Quest 3将成为首款主流可用设备,我们预计将有数百万人可以通过它来体验这项技术。

The metaverse content and software vision continues coming together as well. We recently announced that Roblox is coming to Quest with an open beta on app lab.
元宇宙的内容和软件愿景也在不断融合。我们最近宣布,Roblox将通过app lab在Quest上开展公测。

For Horizon, the team is focused on retention right now and we're making good progress on that. We made big improvements on avatars as well and that's going to be a bridge between our mobile apps and our VR and mixed reality experiences.
对于Horizon,目前团队专注于留存,并且在这方面取得了良好的进展。我们也在头像方面进行了重大改进,这将成为连接我们的移动应用和虚拟现实以及混合现实体验之间的桥梁。

We have a lot more to share on both our metaverse and AI work coming up at our Connect conference which we're going to be hosting in Hacker Square at our headquarters on September 27th. It's going to be a good one so I hope you tune in.
我们将在9月27日在我们总部的Hacker Square举办的Connect大会上分享关于我们元宇宙和人工智能工作的更多信息。这将是一个非常有趣的活动,希望你能够关注。

All right to wrap up I just want to say that I'm really proud of our teams for everything that we've accomplished so far this year. It's been a tough year in a lot of ways but it's also been an impactful one. I'm quite optimistic about the road ahead and I'm grateful to all of you for being on this journey with us and now I'm going to head over to Susan.
好的,总括一下,我只想说我为我们的团队在今年取得的一切感到非常自豪。这一年在很多方面都很艰难,但也意义深远。我对未来的道路非常乐观,感激大家一路相伴,现在我要将话题转给苏珊了。

Thanks Mark and good afternoon everyone. Let's begin with our consolidated results. All comparisons are on a year over year basis unless otherwise noted. Q2 total revenue was $32 billion up 11% or 12% on a constant currency basis. Q2 total expenses were $22.6 billion up 10% compared to last year.
谢谢马克(Mark),大家下午好。让我们从我们的合并业绩开始。除非另有说明,所有比较都是按年度进行。二季度总收入为320亿美元,同比增长11%或在恒定汇率基础上增长12%。二季度总费用为226亿美元,比去年增长10%。

In terms of the specific line items cost a revenue increased 15% driven primarily by infrastructure related costs. R&D increased 8% driven mainly by headcount related costs from our reality labs and family of app segments as well as restructuring costs. Marketing and sales decreased 12% due mostly to lower marketing spend and payroll related costs and G&A increased 39% due primarily to an increase in legal accruals which was partially offset by lower payroll related costs.
就特定项目的成本而言,收入增长了15%,主要是由基础设施相关成本推动的。研发费用增长了8%,主要是由我们的实验室和应用部门的人力成本以及重组费用推动的。市场营销和销售费用减少了12%,主要是由于较低的市场营销支出和薪酬相关成本的减少。一般行政和管理费用增加了39%,主要是由于法务应计增加,但这部分增加部分被薪酬相关成本的减少抵消。

We ended the second quarter with over 71,400 employees down 7% from the first quarter. Our second quarter headcount still included roughly half of the approximately 10,000 employees impacted by the 2023 layoffs. We expect that our third quarter headcount will no longer include the vast majority of impacted employees.
我们第二季度的员工总数为71,400人,比第一季度减少了7%。我们第二季度的员工总数仍然包括约一半受2023年裁员影响的约10,000名员工。我们预计我们的第三季度员工总数将不再包括绝大多数受影响的员工。

Second quarter operating income was $9.4 billion representing a 29% operating margin. Our tax rate for the quarter was 16%. This is lower than our previous full year outlook as our higher share price provided a higher tax deduction and lower our taxes. Net income was $7.8 billion or $2.98 per share. Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases were $6.4 billion driven by investments in data centers, servers and network infrastructure.
第二季度运营收入为94亿美元,运营利润率为29%。本季度的税率为16%。由于我们股价较高,提供了更高的税务扣除额,降低了我们的税收,所以这一税率低于我们之前的年度预期。净收入为78亿美元,每股收益为2.98美元。资本支出(包括财务租赁本金支付)达到64亿美元,主要用于数据中心、服务器和网络基础设施的投资。

Free cash flow was $11 billion significantly benefiting from a deferral of income taxes that we expect will be paid in the fourth quarter. We repurchased $793 million of our class A common stock in the second quarter and ended the quarter with $53.4 billion in cash and marketable securities. Moving now to our segment results.
自由现金流为110亿美元,其中很大程度受益于所得税的推迟缴纳,我们预计将在第四季度支付。我们在第二季度回购了价值7.93亿美元的A类普通股,并以534亿美元的现金和可变现证券结束了本季度。现在转向我们的业务细分结果。

I'll begin with our family of app segment. Our community across the family of apps continues to grow. We estimate that approximately 3.07 billion people used at least one of our family of apps on a daily basis in June and that approximately 3.88 billion people used at least one on a monthly basis. Facebook continues to grow globally and engagement remains strong.
我将从我们的应用系列开始。我们的应用系列社区不断增长。我们估计,每天约有30.7亿人使用我们的应用系列中至少一个应用,每月约有38.8亿人使用至少一个应用。Facebook在全球范围内不断增长,并且用户的参与度依然强劲。

For the first time we crossed 3 billion monthly active users with Facebook MAU ending at 3.03 billion in June up 3% or 96 million compared to last year. Facebook daily active users were 2.06 billion up 5% or 96 million. DAUs represented approximately 68% of MAUs.
我们首次达到了30亿月活跃用户的里程碑,截至6月份,Facebook的月活跃用户(MAU)达到了30.3亿,同比增长3%,即9600万人。Facebook的日活跃用户(DAU)达到20.6亿,同比增长5%,即9600万人。DAU占MAU的比例约为68%。

Q2 total family of apps revenue was $31.7 billion up 12% year over year. Q2 family of apps ad revenue was $31.5 billion up 12% or 13% on a constant currency basis. Within ad revenue the online commerce vertical was the largest contributor to year over year growth followed by entertainment and media and CPG.
Q2全家族应用的收入为317亿美元,同比增长12%。Q2全家族应用的广告收入为315亿美元,同比增长12%或按恒定货币基础上增长13%。在广告收入中,网络商务垂直是同比增长的最大贡献者,其次是娱乐和媒体行业以及消费品行业。

Online commerce benefited from strong spend among advertisers in China reaching customers in other markets. On a user geography basis ad revenue growth was strongest in rest of world at 16% followed by Europe North America and Asia Pacific at 14% 11% and 10% respectively. Foreign currency was a headwind to advertising revenue growth in all international regions.
在线商业受益于中国广告商在其他市场中接触到的客户的强劲支出。根据用户地理位置的考量,广告收入增长在其他地区最强,达到16%,欧洲、北美和亚太地区分别为14%、11%和10%。外币汇率对所有国际地区的广告收入增长构成了一种阻力。

In Q2 the total number of ad impressions served across our services increased 34% and the average price per ad decreased 16%. Impression growth was primarily driven by Asia Pacific and rest of world. The year over year decline in pricing was driven by strong impression growth especially from lower monetizing surfaces and regions.
在第二季度,我们服务上提供的广告印象总数增长了34%,每个广告的平均价格下降了16%。印象增长主要受到亚太地区和其它地区的推动。年度价格下降是由于特别是较低收益的地区和平台的印象增长引起的。

While overall pricing remains under pressure from these factors we believe our ongoing improvements to ad targeting and measurement are continuing to drive improved results for advertisers.
虽然总体定价仍受到这些因素的压力,但我们相信我们对广告定位和衡量的持续改进仍在推动广告商获得更好的成果。

Family of apps other revenue was $225 million in Q2, up 3%. As strong business messaging revenue growth from our WhatsApp business platform was partially offset by a decline in other line items. We continue to direct the majority of our investments toward the development and operation of our family of apps. In Q2, family of apps expenses were $18.6 billion, representing approximately 82% of our overall expenses. FOA expenses were up 8% due primarily to legal-related expenses and restructuring charges, partially offset by a decrease in non-headcount related operating expenses, including marketing. Family of apps operating income was $13.1 billion, representing a 41% operating margin.
在第二季度,我们的应用程序系列其他收入为2.25亿美元,同比增长3%。尽管我们的WhatsApp商务平台的强劲业务消息收入增长部分抵消了其他项目的下降,但我们仍然将大部分投资用于我们应用程序系列的开发和运营。在第二季度,我们的应用程序系列支出为186亿美元,占我们总支出的约82%。由于法律相关费用和重组成本的增加,我们的应用程序系列支出增长了8%,但非员工相关的运营费用(包括市场营销费用)有所减少,部分抵消了增长。我们的应用程序系列运营收入为131亿美元,运营利润率为41%。

Within our reality lab segment, Q2 revenue was $276 million, down 39% due to lower Quest 2 sales. Reality Labs expenses were $4 billion, up 23% due to lapping a reduction in reality labs lost reserves in Q2 of last year, as well as growth in employee-related costs. Reality Labs operating loss was $3.7 billion.
在我们的实境实验室部门中,第二季度收入为2.76亿美元,下降了39%,这是因为Quest 2销售减少造成的。实境实验室的支出为40亿美元,上涨了23%,这是因为与去年第二季度相比,实境实验室丧失准备金的减少停止,并且员工相关成本增长。实境实验室的运营亏损为37亿美元。

Turning now to the business outlook, there are two primary factors that drive our revenue performance. Our ability to deliver engaging experiences for our community and our effectiveness at monetizing that engagement over time. On the first, overall engagement within Facebook and Instagram remains strong. Reels continues to grow and drive incremental engagement. On Facebook feed, in particular, recommended content from accounts you don't follow has increased significantly over the past year while also becoming more incremental to engagement, demonstrating that people are getting added value from discovering content from unconnected accounts. Looking forward, we're optimistic about our ability to increase that value even further by leveraging advanced AI techniques to improve recommendations.
现在转向商业前景,有两个主要因素推动我们的收入表现。我们能否为我们的社区提供引人入胜的体验以及我们在一段时间内有效地利用这种参与度赚钱的能力。就第一个因素而言,在Facebook和Instagram上的整体参与度保持强劲。Reels功能继续增长并推动了额外的参与度。在Facebook上的信息流中,尤其是来自您不关注的帐户的推荐内容在过去一年中显著增加,同时对参与度的增量性也更大,这表明人们从发现与自己无关的内容中获得了附加价值。展望未来,我们对通过利用先进的AI技术改进推荐的能力更加乐观。

In addition to improving the value people get within our family of apps today, we're also investing in entirely new experiences for the future. We're standing up infrastructure to support new AI-powered products across our services, which will give people more tools to express themselves and connect. And we've been pleased with the initial reception of our new standalone app Threads since its launch earlier this month. Our focus now is on further developing this into a product that will be valuable for a large set of people over time.
除了改善我们今天在自己的应用系列中提供的价值之外,我们还在投资为未来打造全新的体验。我们正在搭建支持新的人工智能产品的基础设施,这将为人们提供更多自我表达和连接的工具。自从上个月初推出我们的全新独立应用Threads以来,我们对其初始接受反馈感到满意。我们目前的重点是进一步发展它,使其成为长期对很多人有价值的产品。

Moving to the other driver of revenue, improving monetization. Here we're focused on improving monetization efficiency of products that monetize at lower rates today, like Reels and our messaging services, and more broadly driving measurable performance and returns for our advertisers. On Reels, we are making good progress on monetization, with more than three quarters of our advertisers now using Reels ads. We remain focused on further reducing the Reels revenue headwind and narrowing the monetization efficiency gap with our more mature services. However, we continue to expect time on Reels will monetize at a lower rate than stories and feed for the foreseeable future since people scroll more slowly through video content.
转向另一项收入驱动力,改善货币化。在这里,我们专注于改善如今货币化率较低的产品(如Reels和我们的消息服务)的货币化效率,并更广泛地为广告客户带来可衡量的表现和回报。在Reels方面,我们在货币化方面取得了良好的进展,现在有超过四分之三的广告客户正在使用Reels广告。我们继续致力于进一步减少Reels的营收阻力,并缩小与我们更成熟服务的货币化效率差距。然而,由于人们在视频内容上浏览速度较慢,我们仍然预计在可预见的未来,Reels上的时间将以较低的比例货币化,相比于故事和推送。

Within messaging, billions of people and millions of businesses use our messaging services every day to connect. We see a significant opportunity to build tools and functionality for businesses to help facilitate those interactions and are seeing early but promising progress with WhatsApp's paid messaging solution today.
在消息传递领域,每天都有数十亿人和数百万家企业使用我们的消息服务进行连接。我们认为构建工具和功能来帮助企业促进这些互动是一个重要的机会,而WhatsApp的付费消息解决方案在早期阶段已经取得了很有前景的进展。

In terms of our work to drive measurable performance for advertisers, it's concentrated in two primary areas: AI and on-site conversions. We're leveraging AI to move our systems towards using fewer larger models that enable us to leverage learnings across product surfaces and deploy improvements more quickly, broadly, and efficiently. We're also leveraging AI to power advanced ads products like Advantage Plus Shopping, which continues to gain adoption. We're seeing this work translate into results for advertisers as conversion growth remains strong in Q2.
就我们为广告商带来可衡量的业绩方面而言,我们的工作主要集中在两个主要领域:AI和站内转化。我们正在利用AI使我们的系统向更少的更大的模型转变,从而能够在产品表面上利用所学到的知识,并更快、更广泛、更高效地部署改进措施。我们还利用AI支持先进的广告产品,如Advantage Plus Shopping,该产品的采用率持续增长。我们看到这项工作正在为广告商带来成果,转化增长在第二季度仍然强劲。

In terms of driving on-site conversions, we continue to see strong results with click to messaging ads and our well positioned given our suite of messaging applications. Daily click to WhatsApp ads revenue continues to grow very quickly at over 80% year over year. We also recently started testing the ability to buy click to WhatsApp ads directly from the WhatsApp Business app, which now has more than 200 million monthly users. Looking ahead, we're focused on enabling businesses to optimize for conversions further down the funnel in our messaging applications. We're also investing in scaling other on-site objectives like lead generation and shop ads.
在推动现场转化方面,我们继续看到点击到消息广告的强劲业绩,并且我们的消息应用套件的定位非常好。每日的点击到WhatsApp广告收入同比增长超过80%,增长非常迅速。我们最近还开始测试能够直接从WhatsApp商业应用程序购买点击到WhatsApp广告的功能,这个应用程序现在拥有超过2亿每月活跃用户。展望未来,我们的重点在于使企业能够通过我们的消息应用进一步优化转化漏斗。我们还在投资扩大其他现场目标,如潜在客户生成和购物广告。

Before turning to our revenue outlook, I'd also like to talk about our investment philosophy. We expect to bring the discipline and habits that we built during this year of efficiency with us as we plan for the future. At the same time, we remain focused on investing in the significant opportunities ahead.
在谈到我们的收入展望之前,我还想谈谈我们的投资理念。我们预计在未来的计划中,会带上我们在这一年高效运作中培养起来的纪律和习惯。同时,我们仍然专注于投资未来的重大机遇。

Part of supporting these initiatives will come from prioritizing them against other areas of work and shifting resources. However in some cases they will require incremental investment. This is particularly true in the areas we see the most significant opportunity which include AI and the metaverse.
支持这些倡议的一部分将来自于将它们与其他工作领域进行优先排序并进行资源的调整。然而,在某些情况下,它们需要额外的投资。尤其是在我们看到最有机会的领域,包括人工智能和元宇宙,这一点尤为真实。

As I mentioned last quarter we also remain focused on modestly evolving our capital structure over time. We were pleased to execute our second bond offering in May and expect a measured pace of future debt raises as we work toward improving our overall cost of capital while maintaining a positive or neutral net cash balance.
正如上一季度我提到的,我们也继续专注于逐渐发展我们的资本结构。我们很高兴在五月份成功执行了第二次债券发行,并预计未来的债务筹资将保持适度的节奏,以期在改善我们的资本成本的同时,保持正面或中性的净现金余额。

In addition we continue to monitor the active regulatory landscape. With respect to EU US data transfers we saw a positive development with the European Commission's adoption of a final adequacy decision which allows us to continue to provide our services in Europe. This is good news though broadly speaking we continue to see increasing legal and regulatory headwinds in the EU and the US that could significantly impact our business and our financial results.
此外,我们会继续密切关注当前的监管环境。关于欧盟与美国数据传输方面,欧洲委员会最终通过了一个充分适用性决定,使我们能够继续在欧洲提供服务。这是一个好消息,尽管总体而言,我们仍然看到欧盟和美国不断增加的法律和监管压力,可能对我们的业务和财务结果产生重大影响。

Turning now to the revenue outlook we expect third quarter 2023 total revenue to be in the range of 32 to 34 and a half billion dollars. Our guidance assumes a foreign currency tailwind of approximately 3 percent to year over year total revenue growth in the third quarter based on current exchange rates.
现在,让我们来谈谈收入展望。我们预计2023年第三季度总收入将在320到345亿美元之间。根据当前汇率,我们的指导假设第三季度外汇带动约3%的年度总收入增长。

Turning now to the expense outlook we anticipate that our full year 2023 total expenses will be in the range of 88 to 91 billion dollars increased from our prior range of 86 to 90 billion dollars due to legal related expenses recorded in Q2. This outlook includes approximately four billion dollars of restructuring costs related to facilities consolidation charges and severance and other personnel costs.
现在转向费用预测,我们预计2023年全年的总费用将在880至910亿美元之间,较之前的860至900亿美元的范围有所增加,这是由于在第二季度记录的与法律相关的费用。此预测包括约40亿美元的设施合并费用、遣散费用和其他人员费用等重组成本。

We expect reality labs operating losses to increase year over year in 2023.
我们预计现实实验室的营运亏损在2023年将会同比增加。

While we are not providing a quantitative outlook beyond 2023 at this point we expect a few factors to be drivers of total expense growth in 2024 as we continue to invest in our most compelling opportunities including AI and the metaverse. First we expect higher infrastructure related costs next year. Given our increased capital investments in recent years we expect depreciation expenses in 2024 to increase by a larger amount than in 2023. We also expect to incur higher operating costs from running a larger infrastructure footprint.
虽然我们目前没有提供2023年以后的量化前景,但我们预计在2024年,一些因素将推动总支出的增长,因为我们将继续投资于最具吸引力的机会,包括人工智能和元宇宙。首先,我们预计明年基础设施相关成本将增加。考虑到我们近年来增加的资本投资,我们预计2024年的折旧费用将比2023年增加更多。我们还预计由于扩大基础设施规模,我们将承担更高的运营成本。

Second we anticipate growth and payroll expenses as we evolve our workforce composition toward higher cost technical roles. Finally for reality labs we expect operating losses to increase meaningfully year over year due to our ongoing product development efforts in AR, VR and our investments to further scale our ecosystem.
其次,我们预计随着我们的人力资源结构朝着高成本的技术角色发展,将会出现增长和薪资开支。最后,对于现实实验室部门,由于我们在增强现实、虚拟现实方面的持续产品开发工作及扩大生态系统的投资,我们预计运营亏损将会逐年明显增加。

Turning now to the CAPEX outlook. We expect capital expenditures to be in the range of 27 to 30 billion dollars lowered from our prior estimate of 30 to 33 billion dollars. The reduced forecast is due to both cost savings particularly on non-AI servers as well as shifts in CAPEX into 2024 from delays in projects and equipment deliveries rather than a reduction in overall investment plans.
现在转向CAPEX展望。我们预计资本支出将在270亿到300亿美元之间,较此前预估的300亿到330亿美元有所降低。降低的预测是由于成本节省,特别是在非人工智能服务器上的节省,以及由于项目延迟和设备交付延迟而导致的CAPEX转移到2024年,而不是整体投资计划的减少。

Looking ahead while we continue to refine our plans as we progress throughout the year we currently expect total capital expenditures to grow in 2024 driven by our investments across both data centers and servers particularly in support of our AI work.
展望未来,随着我们在今年的进展,我们将继续完善我们的计划。当前,我们预计2024年的总资本支出将增长,主要得益于我们在数据中心和服务器方面的投资,特别是为了支持我们的人工智能工作。

Onto tax. Abs in any changes to US tax law we expect the tax rate for the rest of the year to be similar to Q2 2023.
关于税收方面,在美国税法的任何变动中,我们预计今年剩余时间的税率将与2023年第二季度类似。

In closing Q2 was a good quarter for our business. We're executing well across our core priorities and are continuing to make progress on delivering exciting new experiences for our community.
总结来说,第二季度对我们的业务来说是一个不错的季度。我们在核心优先事项方面表现出色,并在为我们的社区提供令人兴奋的新体验方面继续取得进展。

With that Dave let's open up the call for questions.
随着这个,戴夫,我们现在开始接受问题了。

Certainly and thank you very much. We will now open the lines for a question and answer session. To ask a question press 1 followed by the number 4 on your touch tone phone. Please pick up your handset before asking your question to ensure clarity. If you're streaming today's call please mute your computer speakers.
当然,非常感谢大家。现在我们将开放问题和答案环节。如果您有问题,请按下数字键盘上的1和4键。在提问之前,请拿起您的电话听筒以保证清晰度。如果您正在通过计算机收听今天的电话会议,请关闭电脑扬声器。

Your first question comes from the line of Brian Novak with Morgan Stanley your line is open.
你第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Brian Novak,请问你有什么问题吗?

Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a two-parter for Mark. Mark you spoke in a few times over the last few months on AI agents that are building different types of assistance through llama. I guess the two-par question is can you sort of talk to us a little bit about some of the use cases or consumer appetizer offerings you're most excited about enabling for some of these AI agents.
感谢你回答我的问题。或许有两个问题是关于马克的。马克,你在过去几个月中多次提到通过llama建立不同类型助手的人工智能代理。我想问的是,你能否谈谈其中一些使用案例或你最期待为这些人工智能代理提供的消费者服务吗?

And then the second one just sort of level set on timing a bit. Can you just help us understand some of the larger technological barriers in your mind the teams will need to overcome to really scale these types of agent products across the ecosystems.
然后第二个问题在时间上稍作调整。您能帮我们理解一下您认为团队需要克服哪些更大的技术障碍才能真正将这些代理产品扩展到生态系统?

Thanks. Sure so I think the main thing that I'll say on this for now is tune in to connect coming up in September. We're going to have a lot more to talk about on the roadmap and products that we're launching. We wanted to get the llama 2 model out now that's going to be that's going to underpin a lot of the new things that we're building. And now we're nailing down a bunch of these additional products and this is going to be stuff that we're working on for years but I think a lot of the journey will kind of start later this year when we start rolling out some of these things.
谢谢。没问题,我现在想先提一下的主要事情是,在九月份时要关注我们的连接活动。我们将有更多关于路线图和即将推出的产品的讨论。我们希望现在能够推出Llama 2模型,这将支持我们正在构建的许多新事物。现在我们正在确定一系列额外的产品,这些将是我们数年来一直在努力的项目,但我认为很多旅程将在今年晚些时候开始,当我们开始推出其中一些产品时。

But overall I think that there are three basic categories of products or technologies that we're planning on building with generative AI. One are around different kinds of agents which I'll talk about in a second. Two are just kind of generative AI powered features. So some of the canonical examples of that are things like in advertising, helping advertisers basically run ads without needing to supply as much creative or if they have an image but it doesn't fit the format be able to fill in the image for them. So I talked about that a little bit upfront in my comments but there's stuff like that across every app. And then the third category of things I'd say are broadly focused on productivity and efficiency internally. You know, so everything from helping engineers write code faster to helping people internally understand the overall knowledge base at the company and things like that. So there's there's a lot to do on each of those zones.
总体而言,我认为我们计划使用生成式人工智能构建三个基本类别的产品或技术。第一类是围绕不同种类的代理程序,我稍后会谈到。第二类是通过生成式人工智能增强的功能。例如在广告领域,帮助广告商在不需要提供太多创意的情况下运营广告,或者为他们填补不符合格式要求的图像。我在一开始的评论中简要谈到了这些,但是在每个应用中都有类似的功能。第三类产品主要关注的是内部的生产力和效率。从帮助工程师更快地编写代码,到帮助内部员工理解公司的总体知识库等等。因此,每个领域都有很多工作要做。

For AI agents specifically I guess what I'd say is one of the things that's different about how we think about this compared to some others in the industry is we don't think that there's going to be one single AI that people interact with. Just because there are all these different entities on a day to day basis that people come across whether they're different creators or different businesses or different apps or things that you use. So I think that there are going to be a handful of things that are just sort of focused on helping people connect around expression and creativity and facilitating connections. I think there are going to be a handful of experiences around helping people connect with the creators who they care about and helping creators foster their communities. And then the one that I think is going to have the fastest direct business loop is going to be around helping people interact with businesses.
对于人工智能代理,我想说的是,和行业中其他人思考这个问题的方式不同的是,我们不认为会有一个人们与之互动的单一人工智能。因为每天人们会遇到许多不同的实体,无论是不同的创作者、不同的企业、不同的应用程序或者其他你使用的东西。所以我觉得会有一些事情致力于帮助人们在表达和创造力方面建立联系,并促成人与人之间的联系。我认为会有一些体验,帮助人们与自己关心的创作者建立联系,并帮助创作者培养他们的社群。而我认为最快带来直接商业循环的则是帮助人们与企业进行互动的部分。

And you can imagine a world on this where over time every business has an AI agent that basically people can message and interact with. And it's going to take some time to get there. This is going to be a long road to build that out. But I think that's going to improve a lot of the interactions that people have with businesses as well as if that does work. It should alleviate one of the biggest issues that we're currently having around messaging monetization is that in order for a person to interact with a business it's quite human labor intensive for a person to be on the other side of that interaction. Which is one of the reasons why we've seen this take off in some countries where the cost of labor is relatively low. But you can imagine in a world where every business has an AI agent that we can see the kind of success that we're seeing in Thailand or Vietnam with business messaging could kind of spread everywhere and I think that's quite exciting.
你可以想象一个情景:随着时间推移,每个企业都拥有一个人们可以与之发送信息并进行互动的AI代理。实现这一点需要一些时间,这将是一条漫长的道路。但我认为,这将改善人们与企业之间的许多互动。如果这种方式奏效,它应该能够缓解我们当前在消息传递货币化方面遇到的最大问题之一,即为了与企业互动,需要大量的人力劳动才能确保对方能立即回复。这也是我们看到这种方式在劳动力成本相对较低的一些国家取得成功的原因之一。但是你可以想象,在每个企业都拥有一个AI代理的世界里,我们可以看到像泰国或越南在企业通讯上取得的成功在全球范围内普及,我认为这非常令人兴奋。

But overall I think we're going to follow a playbook that's similar to what we normally do on products. In terms of how quickly some of these new products scale that's one of the big unknowns for the business. And one of the things that we're debating heavily when thinking through the amount of AI CapEx to bring online because the reality is we just don't know how quickly these will scale and we want to have the capacity in place in case they scale very quickly. But because they're kind of brand new things there aren't that many precedents for things like this it's actually quite hard to forecast. So I don't know if Susan if there's anything on that last point that you want to jump in on. But I think that's probably all I'll say on this for now.
总的来说,我认为我们将遵循与我们在产品上通常采取的类似的计划。就这些新产品快速扩展的速度而言,这对于业务来说是一个很大的未知数。当我们考虑将多少AI资本支出引入线上时,这是我们正在激烈辩论的一个问题,因为实际情况是,我们不知道这些产品会有多快的扩展速度,我们希望有足够的能力来照顾这种可能的高速扩展。但是,由于它们是全新的东西,这方面没有太多先例,所以很难做出准确的预测。所以,Susan,我不知道你是否有关于最后一点的想法要加入。但是,我想现在这些就是我要说的全部内容。

But I'm really excited about this. I think that this is just going to be you know it fits into all the different products that we're building really well. I think that this is going to both complement and touch and transform every single thing that we're doing. And I'm really excited for it. So tune in to connect. Here next question comes from line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Thanks so much for taking the questions. Maybe one for Mark one for Susan.
但我对此非常兴奋。我认为它与我们正在构建的所有不同产品非常相匹配。我认为这将既补充又触及并改变我们所做的每一件事。我对此感到非常兴奋。所以请继续关注。下一个问题来自高盛的Eric Sheridan。你可以提问了。非常感谢您回答问题。也许有一个问题是给Mark,一个问题给Susan。

Mark just following up on Brian's question. I do want to ask just to draw that out a little bit more how you think about the extensions of the developer community sort of growing up around a platform like llama too. And we were intrigued by the Microsoft announcement. You know you traditionally have been more of a consumer facing company with product could provide you an avenue to be more of an enterprise facing company over the long term. And is there a strategy there? Maybe we haven't seen from you in the past. I'd love to flesh that out a little bit.
马克只是在追踪布莱恩的问题。我想再多问一点,你是如何看待像llama这样的平台周围的开发者社区的扩展。我们对微软的宣布很感兴趣。你知道,你过去一直是消费者导向的公司,但这个产品可能为你提供了更多以企业为导向的机会。在长期来看,你是否有战略在这方面?也许我们以前没有见过这样的策略。我很想进一步了解一下。

And Susan just one for you. The VRL losses just continue to build. And I think we continue to struggle a little bit of what the drivers of those losses are. And how should we think about some of the components driving the losses versus elements of earning a return on those losses over the medium to long term as Mark sort of frame the timeframe around metaverse. So any color they are about sort of rate of change or components of the losses in VRL I think would be super helpful. Thanks so much to you both. Yeah sure I'll take a cut at both of those and Susan can jump into the second one if there's any if there's anything that she wants to add there as well.
嗨Susan,还有一个问题是关于VRL的损失问题。我们似乎对这些损失的原因仍然有些困惑。而且,我们应该如何考虑驱动这些损失的因素与中长期收益的组成,这与Mark提到的元宇宙的时间框架有关。因此,如果能提供有关VRL损失的变化速度或组成部分的任何信息,将非常有帮助。非常感谢你们两位。是的,我会试着回答这两个问题,如果Susan还有任何需要补充的地方,她也可以介入。

All right so llama is an open source project which is a little bit different from building out a developer platform although there will be an ecosystem around this. You know what we've seen around open source work that we've done which we've done a lot of in our core infrastructure work you know design of servers and data centers and basic infrastructure as well as an AI. And I point out some of these in my remarks up front like PyTorch and just a bunch of other models that we've released recently.
好的,Llama是一个开源项目,与构建开发者平台略有不同,尽管在这个项目周围也会有一个生态系统。我们在核心基础设施工作中做了很多开源工作,比如服务器和数据中心的设计,以及基础架构和人工智能方面的工作。我在开头的讲话中指出了其中一些,比如PyTorch和我们最近发布的其他一些模型。

One of the things that we've seen is that when you release these projects publicly and open source there tend to be a few categories of innovations that the community makes. So on the one hand it's I think it's just good to get the community standardized on the work that we're doing that helps with recruiting because a lot of the best people want to come and work at the place that is building the things that everyone else uses. It makes it that people are used to these tools from wherever else they're working that can come here and build here.
我们观察到,当你公开发布这些项目并开源时,社区往往会有几类创新。一方面,我认为让社区以我们正在进行的工作为标准是有益的,因为很多优秀的人才都希望来到正在构建其他人使用的东西的地方工作。这使得人们习惯了来自其他地方工作的工具,可以来这里继续构建。

But in terms of improvements that we expect to see from the community there were really a few different types. One is specifically around safety and security. It's a very important issue in AI. In open source software overall we've just seen through the history here that open source software gets scrutinized more and therefore ends up being more secure and safer. And we think that there's a very good chance that's the likely outcome here and whatever improvements that people make to harden it in the community we'll be able to roll that in to our work both for the first party products that we'll launch as well as making it easy to propagate that across the industry and make the AI that everyone uses safer.
但是就我们希望从社区中看到的改进而言,有几种不同类型。其中之一是关于安全性和防护的。这在人工智能领域是一个非常重要的问题。就整个开源软件而言,我们可以看到在历史上,开源软件受到了更多的审查,因此更安全、更可靠。我们认为,在这里也很有可能出现这样的结果,社区内的改进将能够成为我们工作的一部分,不仅适用于我们首发的产品,还能容易地推广到整个行业,使每个人使用的人工智能变得更加安全。

I would also hope to see efficiency improvements. I mean even from the initial llama that was just released as a research project some of the improvements were around things like quantization and being able to run the model way more efficiently. Now we're spending so much on AI CapEx that all the help that we can get from the community to make this stuff more efficient to run will be helpful not just for individuals to be able to run powerful models on their laptop or locally or without a huge amount of compute so individuals can afford it but that should hopefully translate over time into just a more efficient infrastructure for us which hopefully could be quite a big savings. So that's more what we're seeing there.
我也希望看到效率的提高。我的意思是,即使从最初的“Llama”项目开始,一些改进也是关于量化和能够更高效运行模型的。现在我们在AI资本支出上花费了如此之多,从社区中获得的所有帮助,以使这些东西更高效地运行,这对个人来说将是有益的,他们可以在笔记本电脑或本地运行强大的模型,而无需大量计算以使个人负担得起,但这希望随着时间的推移能够转化为对我们而言更高效的基础设施,这有可能带来相当大的节省。所以这更多地是我们在那方面所看到的。

We partnered with Microsoft specifically because we don't have a public cloud offering so this isn't about us getting into that it's actually the opposite. We wanted to work with them because they have that and others have that and that was the thing that we aren't planning on building out but one of the things that you might have noticed is in addition to making this open through the open source license we did include a term that for the largest companies specifically ones that are going to have public cloud offerings that they don't just get a free license to use this they'll need to come and make a business arrangement with us and our intent there is we want everyone to be using this we want this to be open but if you're someone like Microsoft or Amazon or Google and you're going to basically be reselling these services that's something that we think we should get some portion of the revenue for so those are the deals that we intend to be making and we've started doing that a little bit. I don't think that that's going to be a large amount of revenue in the near term but over the long term hopefully that can be something. Not sure if there's anything else to add on that but Susan you can jump in if you want.
我们特意与微软合作,因为我们没有公共云服务,所以这并不意味着我们进入这个领域,实际上正好相反。我们想与他们合作是因为他们有这个,并且其他公司也有这个,而我们并不打算建立这个。但你可能已经注意到的是,除了通过开源许可证开放之外,我们还包含了一个条款,特别适用于那些拥有公共云服务的大公司,他们不能只是拿到一个免费许可证来使用这个,他们需要与我们达成一个商务协议,我们的意图是,我们希望每个人都能使用这个,我们希望它是开放的,但如果你是像微软、亚马逊或谷歌这样的公司,你将基本上是在转售这些服务,那么我们认为我们应该获得其中一部分收入,因此这些是我们想要达成的交易,我们已经开始做了一点这样的交易。我不认为这会在短期内带来很大的收入,但希望在长期内能成为一项收入来源。不确定是否还有其他需要补充的,但若你愿意,苏珊可以加入讨论。

On RL let me just jump over to that for a second. I don't think we're going to break out numbers right now but I'll defer to Susan on that. I mean one big thing for the next year is the launch three right and basically you know this is going to be the biggest headset that we've released since 2020 when we came out with Quest 2 and there are just a lot of expenses related to bring that to market and I think that's at least in the near term going to be one of the major drivers of this. So I think that's probably the main thing that I would point to there.
在讨论RL之前,让我简单说一下。我认为目前我们不会公布具体数字,不过关于这个问题我会听取苏珊的意见。我指的是明年的一个重要项目,即推出三代产品。从2020年Quest 2发布以来,这将是我们发布的最大规模的头戴设备,与此相关,有许多费用需要投入市场。至少在短期内,我认为这将是主要的推动因素之一。所以这大概是我在这方面要指出的主要事情。

You know we're continuing to I continue to think you know looking at the VR work that we're doing and the AR work some of the neural interfaces work I think we're leading in these areas. You know it's been good to see what others in the industry have done because to some degree it gives us more confidence that we're on the right track and you know even though you know I know from an investor standpoint most people aren't investing on quite as long of a time horizon as we are here so I kind of get that a lot of investors might want to see us spending less here in the near term. My view is that we're leading in these areas I believe that they're going to be big over time you know where I think we've shown that we can deliver good business results in the near term while investing ambitiously in the long term so I'm planning on continuing to do that and I do continue to believe that over time we will be happy that we did that. So I don't know if Susan if there's anything you want to add there.
你知道我们正在继续思考我们所做的虚拟现实工作、增强现实工作以及一些神经接口工作,我认为在这些领域我们处于领先地位。看到行业中其他公司所做的事情,确实增强了我们对自己道路正确性的信心。虽然从投资者的角度来看,大多数人的投资时间跨度可能没有我们这么长,所以我能理解很多投资者希望我们在短期内花费更少。但我认为在这些领域,我们处于领先地位,我相信它们在未来会取得巨大的成功。我们已经证明,我们可以在短期内取得良好的业务成果的同时,雄心勃勃地进行长期投资。所以我计划继续这样做,并且坚信长远来看,我们会对此感到满意。Susan,不知道你有没有什么要补充的。

Sure let me just add a couple things very quickly on the first question I just want to clarify that we don't expect that llama is going to result in a separate top line enterprise revenue line so just making sure we're totally clear. On the second question about the growth in reality labs operating losses in 2024 you know Mark alluded to the fact that you know this is an ambitious long-term horizon multifaceted roadmap there are lots of components to the reality labs portfolio across VR AR metaverse social platforms neural interfaces and we really have a long-term time horizon for evaluating the return on our investments here. So in the near term we're focused on growing adoption of the existing products and we're constantly learning more about demand and use cases that inform our future plans but a lot of the investment that's driving the growth here is around conducting the fundamental R&D to solve hard technology problems that are going to enable our vision here. A lot of it is around clearing technical hurdles that will make you know make subsequent devices smaller, cost less, way less, etc. So that's really on the reality website you know again as we said we expect operating losses to increase meaningfully year-over-year in 2024. In 2024 specifically I think that will be driven by a combination of both headcount related and operating costs but again our ambitions in reality labs you know haven't changed and it continues to be a significant long-term opportunity for us.
当然,让我迅速在第一个问题上补充一些内容,我只是想澄清一下,我们并不指望llama能够带来单独的企业营收线,所以只是确保我们完全清楚。关于第二个问题,关于2024年Reality Labs经营亏损的增长,马克提到了一个事实,即这是一个雄心勃勃的长期展望的多方面计划路线图,在VR AR元宇宙社交平台、神经接口等领域,Reality Labs投资组合有很多组成部分。对于评估我们在这里的投资回报,我们有一个长期的时间视角。所以在短期内,我们专注于推广现有产品的采用,并且我们不断了解需求和使用案例,以指导我们的未来计划,但是推动这里增长的投资很大程度上是围绕进行基础研究和解决艰难的技术问题,这将使后续设备更小、成本更低、更加轻便等。所以,在Reality Labs领域,我们预计在2024年的经营亏损将有显著增长,这主要是由于与员工人数和经营成本相关的因素,但是我们在Reality Labs的抱负并未改变,它仍然是一个巨大的长期机遇。

Your next question comes from line of Mark Schmülick with Bernstein. Your line is open. Great thanks for taking the question. Mark things quickly like a month ago we weren't talking about real quarter ago we weren't talking about llama and start of the year we were barely talking about AI. You know if you think back to kind of just how you were prioritizing your time at the start of the year to kind of where you are today and how that's kind of changed well let's just get some color on kind of the changing priorities and you know really where you're spending your time.
下一个问题来自伯恩斯坦的马克·舒米尔克。您可以提问了。非常感谢您回答问题。马克说,就像一个月前我们还没有讨论到实际季度,四分之一前我们还没有讨论骆驼,年初我们几乎没有讨论人工智能。如果你回想一下,你在一年初如何安排时间,与现在的情况进行对比,以及这些优先事项的变化,我们可以对您花费时间的领域有一些了解吗?

And then the second question you know really impressive obviously acceleration and growth and kind of the core ad business. Well let's just get some color you know kind of beyond the vertical contribution. You know what are you seeing in terms of kind of adoption of advantage plus products really driving some of that you know improved growth especially what we've seen relative to the rest of the sector. Thank you.
然后第二个问题,你知道,显然令人印象深刻的是加速和增长,以及核心广告业务。嗯,让我们来了解一些情况,除了垂直贡献之外,你知道,你在优势增值产品的采用方面看到了什么,特别是我们相对于其他行业部门所见到的增长改善。谢谢。

Yeah I can I can start with the first and then Susan can take the second. And you know I actually think our priorities have been pretty consistent for a few years now. I think the way that people hear them might be different but you know for example last year I think we were getting quite a bit of critique for the volume of AI capex spending that we were doing and now you know obviously people want to understand where that's going and where we think that trajectory is going and want to make it as efficient as possible. But I think at this point it's more well understood that that you know I think that was a good investment and it's driving results in the near term and enabling us to build some of the new experiences that I think we all think are are pretty fundamental.
是的,我可以开始讲第一个,然后苏珊可以讲第二个。而且我觉得我们的优先事项其实已经保持相当一致好几年了。我认为人们听到的方式可能有所不同,但是去年的例子来说,我们因为人工智能资本支出的规模而受到了很多批评,而现在人们想要了解我们正在朝着哪个方向发展,以及我们认为那个轨迹将去向何方,同时希望我们能尽可能高效地进行。但是我觉得现在人们更加理解,我认为那是一笔不错的投资,并且正在在短期内带来成果,使我们能够构建一些我们都认为相当基础的新体验。

I don't think Reels is new although maybe you meant threads when you said that. Threads I would say it's not that threads is like it's not a massive project it was you know I've thought for a while that that the opportunity around public conversations and kind of a text-based product was bigger than what you know had been executed yet in the market so we we had a relatively small team work on that and you know this year I think there have been two things that have been that have just vastly exceeded my expectations. One was llama you know the the initial model you know we thought it was interesting but the scale of adoption even just for the research version really spurred us to go do llama too and that was vastly more than we expected and the second is threads has been dramatically more than than we expect in terms of the adoption and the rate of that you know we thought this was going to be kind of a project that we just you know we had a small team working on for a while but it really kind of blew up and created a big opportunity immediately.
我不认为Reels是个新的概念,尽管当你说到它时,你可能是指线程。线程,我会说,不是一个大型的项目,你懂的,我一直以来都觉得公开对话和基于文本的产品的机会比市场上的执行要大得多,所以我们有一个相对较小的团队来完成这个项目,你知道的,今年有两件事情超出了我的预期。一方面是llama,你知道我们最初觉得这个模型很有趣,但是即使是仅仅研究版的用户规模也远远超出了我们的预期,这促使我们开展了llama2的工作,结果远远超出了我们的预期;另一方面,线程的采纳率和增长速度也远远超出了我们的预期,我们认为这只是一个小团队长时间开展的项目,但它真的爆发了出来,立即创造了一个巨大的机会。

But no I mean I think over time you should expect that we're going to focus on AI and the metaverse. AI includes both all of the ranking and recommendation systems that power the core apps so you know all the content that you're seeing in Facebook and Instagram all the ads content that you're seeing it's also underpins all the safety systems that that we that we build increasingly it's it's all the generative AI stuff so all the agents all the generative features that we're going to be rolling out and a lot of the other work that's going to underlie some of the efficiency stuff they were doing internally and then the metaverse stuff I think we've talked about for a while so I don't think that there's much change there except that you know I'd say the signals that we're getting from the market are you know it's certainly not getting adopted a lot faster than we expected so that's that's sort of the somewhat sobering signal but on the other side I think a lot of companies that otherwise are doing you know we respect and do great work we don't necessarily view is building things that are ahead of where we are which which gives us confidence that and we think that the long-term thesis still will hold there we think that we're going to be the leaders in it and nothing that we're seeing from the market makes us you know rethink that in a fundamental way so I think we're going to we're going to continue focusing on AI in the metaverse is the two big thrusts of what we're doing and all the other things you know or kind of fall out of that.
但是我的意思是,我认为随着时间的推移,你应该预计我们会将重点放在人工智能和元宇宙上。人工智能包括所有支持核心应用的排名和推荐系统,所以你知道在Facebook和Instagram上看到的所有内容,以及所有广告内容,都是以此为基础;它还支撑着我们构建的所有安全系统,而且越来越多地涉及生成式人工智能技术,也就是我们将要推出的所有代理人和生成式功能,以及一些内部进行的提升效率的工作的基础。至于元宇宙的事情,我认为我们已经讨论了一段时间,所以我不认为有太多变化,只是我们从市场上获取的信号是,它的普及速度确实比我们预期的要快,所以这是一个有些令人警醒的信号,但另一方面,我们认为还有很多其他公司在做我们尊重并且做得很好的工作,但我们并不认为它们正在构建超越我们的东西,这让我们相信长期的论点仍然成立,我们认为我们将成为其中的领导者,市场上我们看到的一切也没有让我们对此产生根本性的反思,所以我认为我们将继续把重点放在人工智能和元宇宙上,这是我们所做的两个主要努力,并且其他的事情都将随之而来。

And Mark I'll take the second question that you asked around the Q2 revenue acceleration so I think there were a couple parts one was around the acceleration in the core ads business the second was on the advantage plus products in terms of the Q2 revenue acceleration I'd highlight there are a few factors driving that the first is frankly we're lapping a weaker demand period including the first full quarter of the war in Ukraine and the suspension of our services in Russia second you know we saw increased supply and improvements to add performance including improved reels monetization as we continue. to work down the reels revenue headwind and third there were lower fx headwinds for us this quarter so those were all three you know things that that helps drive the revenue acceleration in Q2 in terms of the question about advantage plus advantage plus specifically you know advantage plus is one of multiple AI powered ad products that we have right now in the market with advantage plus specifically we're seeing strong adoption in particular success with the e-commerce and retail verticals and then we've seen good traction with other verticals like cpg especially dtc brands and we're continuing to launch features to unlock use cases for advertisers and make it easier for them to adopt advantage plus campaigns and measure their performance gains so we've got a lot in the pipeline there that we're excited about for both the advantage plus shopping campaigns specifically which were our first sort of foray into this this area but then the advantage plus portfolio more broadly that basically enables us to take that same playbook of helping advertisers iterate and test very quickly and imply it to many different steps of the end-to-end ad buying experience so the feedback and results that we've seen from advertisers is good and you know we think it's a really promising area that we're continuing to invest in but it's one of many ways that we're using AI to continue to sort of help make our ads systems and recommendations and ranking engines more performant to deliver better measurement and results advertisers
马克,我会回答你刚刚关于Q2收入增长的第二个问题。我认为其中包含了几个部分,一是核心广告业务的加速,二是优势增值产品方面。就Q2收入加速而言,我要强调几个驱动因素。首先,我们正在赶超一个需求较弱的时期,包括乌克兰战争的第一个完整季度以及我们在俄罗斯服务的暂停。其次,我们看到供应量增加和广告性能的改善,包括逐步消除广告收益的不利因素。第三,本季度外汇汇率不利的影响较小。这三个因素都有助于推动Q2收入的加速增长。至于关于优势增值产品的问题,具体来说,优势增值产品是我们目前市场上多款基于人工智能的广告产品之一。我们发现优势增值产品在电子商务和零售行业特别成功,并且在其他行业,如消费品和直销品牌方面,也取得了良好的进展。我们将继续推出新功能,以实现广告主的多种应用场景,并为其采用优势增值广告活动和衡量其绩效提供便利。在这方面,我们有很多值得期待的新项目,包括特定的优势增值购物活动,这是我们在这一领域的首次尝试,以及优势增值产品组合的更广泛应用。这将使我们能够采用相同的策略,帮助广告主快速迭代和测试,并在广告购买全过程的许多不同环节中应用。我们收到的广告主的反馈和结果都很好,我们认为这是一个非常有前景的领域,我们将继续在其中进行投资。然而,这只是我们利用人工智能继续改进广告系统、推荐和排名引擎以实现更高表现、提供更好度量和效果给广告主的众多方式之一。

Your next question comes from a line of Justin Post with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Justin, your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自银行美银美林的贾斯汀·波斯特(Justin Post)。贾斯汀,你可以发言了。

Great, thank you for taking my question.
太好了,谢谢您回答我的问题。

I guess I want to follow up on Reality Labs, passing $40 billion in losses and increasing annually next year. Just think about maybe help us understand how the ROI on the business, how you're thinking about that investment either on a standalone basis or as a complement to the family of apps.
我想我想要继续讨论Reality Labs,他们的损失已经达到了400亿美元,并且明年还会继续增加。请试着帮助我们了解这项业务的投资回报率,以及你是如何考虑这项投资,无论是作为独立业务还是作为其他应用的补充。

You know, if you're thinking about it from an investor perspective. Thank you. Well, I think it's both over time. Um, you know, the primary way that I think about this is that, you know, we've been able to show that we can, we've, I think, been quite successful at building, you know, large-scale social experiences. Um, within the constraints of platforms that, you know, often our competitors are defining.
你知道的,如果你从投资者的角度来考虑的话。谢谢。嗯,我认为这两者都是随着时间的推移。你知道的,我主要的思考方式是,我们已经能够展示出我们可以,在通常由我们竞争对手定义的平台限制下,成功构建大规模的社交体验。

Um, you know, I think we're going to be able to do even better work and there's a lot of things that I would like to see us build that we just can't because we're of the ways that we're constrained by the competitors who who build these platforms and um in over time the main way that i think about this is from a product and mission perspective is you know we're here to build awesome experiences that help people connect i think helping to shape the next platform is going to unlock that and in a profound way for decades to come and you know that's what what i'm here to do and i think what a lot of people are here to do um so so that's kind of the the first principles part of this
嗯,你知道,我认为我们能够做得更好,并且有很多我想让我们构建的东西,但因为竞争对手所构建的平台的限制,我们无法实现。随着时间的推移,我认为这主要从产品和使命的角度来考虑,就是我们的目标是构建帮助人们连接的令人赞叹的体验。我认为参与塑造下一个平台将在未来几十年内以一种深刻的方式实现这一目标,这也是我在这里的目的,我认为其他很多人也是如此。所以这就是这个问题的基本原则部分。

from a business perspective i think that there's going to end up being a large business component of this that is reality lab specific um directly you know the products that we're that we're building there and and and having that be a good business um but i also think that a lot of this is going to be that it unlocks a lot of value for the other experiences the current apps that we have what you think of is the family of apps um where we uh you know currently just a lot of the potential value whether it's just engagement that could be created features that we would love to build that we're not allowed to because apple or others just don't allow us to build those things um and and you know i i think that that's really unfortunate for the the industry um you know i think that there's a lot of lost engagement that would have happened um a lot of the monetization and value that gets created i mean just look at what happened with that app tracking transparency the massive value destruction for small businesses um because of the rules that were set by by another platform
从商业角度来看,我认为这将最终成为现实实验室的一个重要商业组成部分,直接涉及我们正在构建的产品。这也意味着可以构建一个良好的商业模式。但我也认为,其中很大一部分是为我们目前的应用程序提供更多的价值,我们称之为应用程序家族。目前,我们能够实现的潜在价值很大程度上受到限制,无论是用户参与度还是我们所想构建的功能,因为苹果和其他平台不允许我们构建那些东西。我想说,这对整个行业来说真的很不幸,因为有很多本应该发生的用户参与度丧失了,小型企业因为另一个平台制定的规则而造成了巨大的价值损失,比如应用跟踪透明度所引发的情况。

Paragraph 1: and that's not um you know that's not you know in a future version of the world it's not um that would be recognized not by device sales or some new like the experience that we're building in reality labs you would you would basically see that accrue through um more efficient monetization of the the apps and experiences that were that were we're building other places so um i think it's going to be both but i think this is just a very fundamental thing this is a very long-term bet i i you know at a deep level i understand the discomfort that a lot of investors have with it because it's just outside of the model of um of i think you know even most long-term investors how you would think about this um and and look i mean i can't guarantee you that i'm going to be right about about about this bet um you know i i do think that this is the direction that the world is going in um you know there are you know billion or two billion people have glasses today i think in the future they're all going to be smart glasses and and like and um you know all the the the time that we spend on on tv's and computers i think that's going to get a more more immersive and and look something more like vr in the future um and and i think that you know what we're seeing is richer ways for people to communicate across even the mobile apps that we have going from tech to photos to videos just continual trend towards being more immersive so you know i like all of these trends line up to make me think that this is the right thing um i i think we're going to be happy that we did this um so that that's kind of how i think about it both from kind of a mission and product perspective a business perspective an investment um time frame perspective um but i i also you know understand the uh the the discomfort that that some folks have with with something that i can't put exact numbers on
这不是未来世界的版本,不会通过设备销售或我们在现实实验室中构建的全新体验来获得认可。相反,通过更高效的应用和其他领域的体验的货币化,我们将看到它积累起来。我认为这将是两全其美的,但我也认为这是一个非常基础的事情,是一个非常长期的赌注。我深刻理解很多投资者对此感到不安,因为它不符合大多数长期投资者甚至思考这个问题的模式。我不能保证自己对这个赌注是正确的,但我确信这是世界发展的方向。现在已经有数十亿人佩戴眼镜,我认为未来所有人都会使用智能眼镜,并且我们在电视和电脑上花费的时间也会更加沉浸,更像是虚拟现实。我们正在看到人们在各种移动应用程序上进行更加丰富的沟通方式的趋势持续发展,从文字到照片再到视频,这种趋势使我相信这是正确的选择。我认为我们会对此感到满意,这是我从使命、产品、商业和投资时间角度思考这个问题的方式,但我也理解一些人对于我无法给出确切数字的事情感到不安。

Paragraph 1: a in your turn time horizon around your next question comes from line of Doug Anmias with JP Morgan your line is open thanks for taking questions um one for mark one for Susan um mark you touched on it a bit but can you just talk a little bit more about what you've learned from threads early on not just for that product specifically but also as you look to leverage the family of apps platform to launch additional products over time and then Susan you lowered the capex outlook this year by three billion dollars you just provide more color on the delays and projects and equipment in 23 and is there any way to frame how meaningful the capex increase could be in 24 thank you
第一段: 你的问题来自JP摩根的Doug Anmias线路,在你的回合时间范围内,你的线路已经打开,感谢您回答问题。马克,我有一个问题是关于你早期学到了什么,不仅仅是针对具体的产品,而且作为你考虑利用应用程序平台推出更多产品的时候,你能再谈谈吗?然后,苏珊,你今年将资本支出展望下调了30亿美元,你能详细说明延迟和项目设备情况吗?在2024年,资本支出增加可能有多重要?谢谢。

Paragraph 2: yeah on threads um it's maybe too early to to do this kind of analysis i mean um you know on the one hand you know we've tried a bunch of standalone experiences over time and in general we haven't had a lot of success with building kind of standalone apps um you know the biggest exception to that of course is messenger but that started off as functionality inside facebook and was spun out um so you know pardon me wonders if this is just a kind of classic you know venture capital portfolio question where you try a bunch of things and a bunch of them don't work and um and then you know every once in a while one hits and is a much bigger success um it could be that um or it could just be that this is such an idiosyncratic case because of all the factors that are happening around twitter um or um x i guess it's called now um so it's it's hard it's hard to say i mean but i think when when something works or doesn't you can often you know point to the reason why it did or didn't and there i think is a an interesting intellectual question of whether you could have known that uh priori that that was actually going to be the case um but so i'm not sure but but also rather than than trying to kind of analyze that i'd say we have a lot of work to do to really make threads reach its full potential um that's not a a foregone conclusion yet even though i think we're we're off to you know a great start and i'm optimistic that over time this could be a you know fifth you know great great app and the family of apps but um um but we have a lot of we have a lot of basic work to do you know and we have a basic playbook here which is you know build an experience it's got to be something that people like um so it has to have product market fit once you get that um it's not always for tentative so a lot of people might might um you know like an experience but you need to kind of tune it so that way the numbers works that people who use it are are continuing we feel like we're we're getting to a good place on that with threads there's still a lot of basic functionality to build once we feel like we're we're in a very good place on that then i i'm highly confident that we're going to be able to pour um you know enough gasoline on this to help it grow once we get to the point where um where we feel good that that everyone who's using it is going to continue using it at a at a high rate um and then you know a few years once we get to the point where it's at hundreds of millions of people if assuming we can get there then we'll worry about monetization but i mean that's basically the playbook that that i'm that we're focused on and you know so rather than thinking about right now like what does this mean for other things like it that we can build that say we're really just focused on taking this opportunity which is um an awesome one that we didn't expect to this this scale um and making sure we make the most of this and and execute it but i i do think it has been sort of this weird anomalous thing in the tech industry that um there hasn't been an app for public discussions like this that has reached a billion people when i look at you know all the different social experiences it just seems like there should be one like this um i think there are a lot of reasons that you can point to why why that might have not been the case historically but um i it's awesome that we get a chance to to work on this and i'm really optimistic about where we are but it's going to be a long road ahead
是的,在聊天线程上,现在进行这种分析可能还为时过早。我是说,一方面,我们在很长一段时间里尝试过许多独立体验,但总的来说,我们并没有在构建独立应用方面取得很大成功。当然,最大的例外是Messenger,但它最初是Facebook内部的功能,后来被分割出来。所以我不禁想,这可能只是一个典型的风险投资投资组合问题,你尝试很多事情,其中很多都不奏效,然后偶尔会有一个大获成功的案例。可能是这样,也可能只是因为Twitter周围发生的各种因素而导致了这种特殊情况。很难说。不过,我认为当某件事情奏效或者不奏效时,通常你可以找到原因。在这里,有一个有趣的思维问题,即你能否在先验上知道这实际上会发生,但我不确定。不过,与其试图分析这个,我认为我们需要付出很多努力,真正发挥线索的全部潜力。尽管我认为我们已经有了一个很好的开局,并且对未来持乐观态度,但这并不是一个必然的结论。我乐观地认为,随着时间的推移,这可能成为旗下第五个伟大的应用程序,但我们还有很多基础工作要做。我们有一个基本的策略,即构建一种用户喜欢的体验,所以它必须具备产品市场适应性。一旦达到这个目标,它并不总是稳定的,因为很多人可能喜欢这种体验,但你需要对其进行调整,确保使用它的人继续下去。在这方面,我们在线索方面已经取得了很好的进展,但仍有许多基础功能要构建。一旦我们认为在这方面已经达到很好的水平,我非常有信心我们能够为其提供足够的推动力来促使其增长。一旦我们确信每个使用它的人都会以很高的比率继续使用它,那么在几年内,当它的用户达到数亿级别时,我们会考虑盈利问题。但基本上,这是我们专注的策略。所以,与其现在考虑这对其他我们可以建立的事物意味着什么,我们真正专注的是抓住这个机会,这是一个出乎意料的巨大机会,确保我们充分利用它并执行好。但我确实认为,在科技行业中,像这样的面向公众讨论的应用程序还没有达到10亿用户的情况是一种奇怪的异常现象。当我看到各种不同的社交体验时,似乎应该有一个像这样的应用。我认为有很多原因可以解释为什么历史上没有出现这种情况,但我们能有机会致力于解决这个问题,我对我们目前的情况感到非常乐观,但前路仍然漫长。

Paragraph 1: and Doug on your second question about our 2023 cat pecs forecast and the impact on 24 so i'll start with 2023 the reduced forecast that we gave for 23 i mentioned on the call is driven both by some cost savings uh particularly on non-a.i. servers where we're you know we previously had some under underutilized capacity and we've been identifying ways to be more efficient in the way that we allocate that capacity towards all of our various needs um as well as shifts in cat pecs uh into 2024 that's coming from delays and data center projects and server deliveries and that'll just push that associated cat pecs which we were planning for in 23 into 24 we're still working on our 24 cat pecs plans we haven't yet finalized that and we'll be working on that through the course of this year but i mentioned that we expect that cat pecs in 24 will be higher than in 23 we expect both data centers spend to grow in 24 as we ramp up construction on sites with the new data center architecture that we announced late last year and then we certainly also expect to invest more in servers in 2024 for both AI workloads to support all of the AI work that we've talked about across the core AI ranking recommendation work along with the next gen AI efforts um and then of course also our non-a.i workloads as we refresh some of our servers and add capacity just to support continued growth across the site.
关于你的第二个问题,关于我们2023年的资本支出预测以及对2024年的影响,我将从2023年开始解释。我们在通话中提到的减少的预测是由于一些成本节省,特别是在非AI服务器方面,我们之前有一些未充分利用的容量,我们一直在寻找更高效的分配方法来满足我们各种需求,以及资本支出的转移到2024年。这是由于数据中心项目和服务器交付的延迟引起的,这将使我们原本计划在2023年进行的相关资本支出推迟到2024年。我们还在制定我们2024年的资本支出计划,目前还没有最终确定,我们将在今年的过程中进行制定。但是我提到过,我们预计2024年的资本支出将超过2023年。我们预计,在新的数据中心架构的支持下,2024年的数据中心支出都会增长,这是因为我们在去年年底宣布新的数据中心架构,我们将加大建设力度。当然,我们还预计在2024年会增加对服务器的投资,既支持核心AI排名建议工作,又支持新一代AI的努力,同时也包括我们非AI工作负载的更新和增加容量以支持网站持续增长。

Paragraph 2: Your next question comes from line of use of squally with truest your line is open. Great thank you very much for taking questions one for mark and one for Susan may be mark you touched on this a little earlier but there's this open floor this is close to what's the debate going on with mera as one of the companies on one side of it with mama and llama two um how do you see this market evolving over time do you see one approach as being potentially superior to the other and their form would be likely to garner greater adoption or is this really a win-win situation just considering how early we are in this process and how large the potential time is
你的下一个问题是关于暴雨与真理的使用的。你的线路已经开启。非常感谢您提供这些问题,有一个是给马克的,一个是给苏珊的。也许马克,你在之前已经触及了一点,但在这个问题上还有一个开放的论点,这与一家公司包括西蒙妈妈和莱拉的公司背道而驰。您认为这个市场会随着时间的推移发展成什么样?您是否认为其中一种方法有可能优于另一种方法,并且该形式可能更受欢迎?或者这只是一个双赢的局面,考虑到我们现在处于这个过程的早期阶段,潜力很大。

and then soon your guidance for two three um implies at the midpoint about a 20% growth which is a pretty steep acceleration from q two at 11 or 12 percent could you maybe just help us understand the drivers of that acceleration and as we look into q4 the comps remain pretty easy is that sustainable and 2drn thank you yeah i can speak briefly to the to the first one i do think that there will continue to be both open and closed ai models um i think there were a bunch of reasons for this um um there are obviously a lot of companies that their business model is to build a model and then sell access to it so for them making it open would undermine their business model that is not our business model we want to have the like we view the model that we're building as sort of the foundation for building product so if by sharing it we can improve the quality of the model and improve the quality of the team that we have uh that that is working on that that's a win for for our business um of basically building building better products um so i i think that you'll you'll see both of those models there are also some important safety questions that i think we'll need to continue thinking about over time um you know there are there are a number of people who are out there saying um that you know once the ai models get past a certain level of capability it can become dangerous for them to become just in the hands of everyone openly um i think it you know what i think is pretty clear is that we're not at that point today
然后很快你对二到三季的指导增长约20%,这是一个相当大的加速,相比之下Q2只有11%或12%,您可以帮助我们理解这种加速的推动因素吗?而且,从Q4的对比来看,增长仍然相当轻松,这是可持续的吗?感谢您。是的,我可以简要地谈谈第一个问题。我认为将继续存在开放和封闭的AI模型。有很多原因可以解释这种现象。显然,有很多公司的商业模式是构建模型,然后销售访问权限。因此,对他们来说,开放模型将破坏他们的商业模式。而这不是我们的商业模式。我们希望将我们正在构建的模型视为构建产品的基础。因此,通过分享它,我们可以提高模型的质量,提高我们团队的质量,这对我们的业务来说是一个胜利,也就是构建更好的产品。因此,我认为您将看到这两种模式。随着时间的推移,还有一些重要的安全问题需要我们继续思考。有一些人说,一旦AI模型达到一定的能力水平,如果它们完全公开使用,可能会变得危险。我认为很明显的是,我们今天还没有到达那个点。

I think that there's consensus uh generally among you know people are working on this in the industry and policy folks that were not at that point today and it's it's not exactly clear at what point you be you you reach that so i think you know there are people who are who are kind of making that argument in good faith that who are actually concerned about the safety risks i think that there are probably some um you know businesses that are out there making that argument because they want it to be more closed because that's their business so i think we need to be wary of that um but i i think for for both of those reasons the business reasons and the safety reasons i think there will be continued to be a mix of um of open and closed models and it's not just going to be that like one thing um is is whatever one uses i think different businesses will use different things for different reasons um and you know by by open sourcing llama now we're we're not you know on the second question around safety we're you know we we intentionally did not go out there and say we're going to open source every single thing in the future because you know we do want to have the space to be able to look at that how the safety landscape evolves and you know if we we think that you know we do cross some some kind of critical threshold in the future um it may not be the right thing to open source it in the future but for our business model at least um you know since we're not selling access to this stuff it's a lot easier for us to to share this with the community because it just makes our products better and and other people's nuts that that i think is a really healthy dynamic for the industry um and thanks you saph for your second question which i'll take you asked about our q3 revenue outlook and maybe also what that implies uh looking forward into q4 so on the further acceleration you know that we've um that we've guided to in q3 first of all i you know just uh point out that q3 22 revenue declined four and a half percent year over year so we're really lapping a much weaker demand period a year ago you know and we've certainly seen demand this year stabilized and so it's really a much easier compare we also are expecting that currency is going to flip to a three-point tailwind from a one-point headwind uh last quarter and finally you know as i've mentioned um earlier on this call we've been investing for a long time and i think executing really well uh across our core monetization work and continuing to grow engagement um and i think we're going to benefit from all of the investments that we've made in those historical and key priorities for us in terms of what this means for q4 we're not sharing a q4 revenue outlook yet there are obviously some tailwinds to your your growth in q4 again the same point about a weaker compare applies and at current rates fx would be a larger tailwind in q4 than we're expecting it to be in q3 um but we've had sizable fluctuations in advertiser demand over the last year you know it's been a pretty volatile period so while we're seeing strong advertiser demand now and that's certainly informing our outlook you know it's harder to predict as we look further forward and there are a wide range of possible outcomes in q4.
我认为,在业内从业人员和政策人士中,普遍存在一种共识,即我们今天还没有达到那个点,目前还不清楚我们什么时候会达到那个点。因此,我认为有些人在真诚地提出这个论点,他们实际上对安全风险感到担忧。我认为可能有一些企业提出这个论点是因为他们希望更加封闭,因为这符合他们的业务需求。但是,出于商业原因和安全原因,我认为会继续存在开放和封闭模式的混合。不同的企业将基于不同的原因采用不同的模式。通过现在开放源代码,我们的意思并不是要在安全方面开源所有东西,因为我们希望有空间来观察安全情况的变化,如果我们认为将来遇到某种关键阈值,开源可能并不是正确的选择。但至少对于我们的商业模式来说,由于我们不出售这些东西的访问权限,对于我们与社区共享这些东西更加容易,因为这样能够改善我们的产品,对其他人也有好处。我认为这对于整个行业来说是一种健康的动态。谢谢您对第二个问题的提问,我将回答。您问及我们第三季度收入的展望以及这对第四季度的意味着什么。首先,关于我们在第三季度加速增长的问题,我要指出我们同比收入下降了4.5%,所以我们正在与一年前更弱的需求时期作对比,今年的需求情况明显稳定,所以对比更容易。我们还预计,货币汇率上个季度的负面影响将翻转为正面影响,由1个百分点的抗力转为3个百分点的推力。最后,正如我在刚才的通话中提到的,我们一直在进行投资,并且在我们的核心盈利工作方面表现非常出色,持续增长参与度。我认为我们将从过去对这些历史和重要优先事项的投资中获益。至于对于第四季度的意味着什么,我们目前尚未公布第四季度的收入展望。在第四季度,显然会有一些尾巴风对我们的增长产生影响,同样,较弱的对比点同样适用。按照当前汇率,外汇将成为第四季度比第三季度更大的推动力。但在过去的一年中,广告主需求出现了相当大的波动,这是一个相当不稳定的时期,所以尽管我们现在看到广告主需求强劲,这当然会影响我们的展望,但对于我们更远的展望来说更难预测,因为存在着各种可能的结果。

Dave, we have time for one last question. Thank you, Ken. That will come from the line of Brad Erickson with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Yeah, thanks. Just had a follow-up, I guess, on the capx, just in that planning process you keep alluding to for the 24 capx outlook. I think you know, a lot of your commentary here implies that new products that sound like are going to be really central to instructing that number. Just curious how dependent it also is based on just views of revenue growth in '24 and the relationship there. Thanks. Yeah, um, thank you Brad. I can go ahead and take that one. So, you know, our growth in AI investments is really the thing that is driving the growth in our 2024 capx outlook. And I think there are a couple components to that. You know, there is both the core AI work, you know, which powers our ranking and recommendation systems, which underpins both a lot of our content ranking and engagement growth, as well as the monetization work. And that's an area, you know, where we're able to measure the ROI of our investments there, and we feel good about the ROI of those investments, and we want to continue investing appropriately to drive revenue growth, at the same time being mindful of our desire to over the long term, you know, decrease capital intensity. There's also another component, which is the next generation AI efforts that we've talked about around advanced research and gen AI. And that's a place where we're already standing up training clusters and inference capacity, but we don't know exactly what we'll need in 2024 since we don't have any at scale deployments yet of consumer or business facing features, and the scale of the adoption of those products is ultimately going to inform how much capacity we need. We think these are both going to be compelling investment opportunities, and some of the AI capacity is fungible. So, if we don't end up needing some of the capacity for our gen AI work, we'll be able to allocate it to our core AI work supporting ads and engagement. But we're really still working on our 24 plans. You know, we will have clearer and more quantitative outlook as those plans shape up, but we are mindful of our intention to reduce the capital intensity of these investments over time. Great, thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your time, and we look forward to speaking against him. And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.
戴夫,我们还有时间讨论最后一个问题。谢谢你,肯。现在我们问一下Brad Erickson在RBC Capital Markets的问题。请发言。是的,谢谢。我有一个跟进问题,关于24年资本支出的规划过程。我认为你在这里的讲话意味着新产品对于这个数字的构成非常关键。我想知道它与24年收入增长的观点和关系的依存程度。谢谢。是的,谢谢你,Brad。我可以回答这个问题。我们在人工智能投资方面的增长确实是驱动我们2024年资本支出展望的主要因素。我认为其中有几个组成部分。首先是核心的人工智能工作,它支持我们的排名和推荐系统,为我们的内容排名和用户增长提供基础,也为我们的变现工作提供支持。这是一个领域,我们能够衡量投资回报率,并且我们对我们的投资回报率感到满意。我们希望继续适当地投资以推动收入增长,同时也要意识到我们长期来说希望降低资本密集度。另外还有一个组成部分,就是我们谈论过的下一代人工智能项目,如高级研究和基因人工智能。我们已经开始建立培训集群和推理能力,但由于我们尚未在消费者或商业面向特性上进行大规模部署,我们还无法确定2024年需要多少容量。这些产品的采用规模最终会决定我们需要多少容量。我们认为这两个领域都将是具有吸引力的投资机会,并且一些人工智能能力是可以相互转换的。因此,如果我们最终不需要一部分用于基因人工智能项目的容量,我们可以将其重新分配给支持广告和用户参与度的核心人工智能项目。但目前我们仍在制定2024年的计划。随着计划的进展,我们将会有更清晰和更具量化的展望,但我们也意识到长期来说我们希望降低这些投资的资本密集度。非常感谢你们今天的参与。我们感谢你的时间,期待以后的交流。本次电话会议到此结束。谢谢你们的参与。请挂断电话。