New Details From Tesla Earnings + India, Cybertruck, X

Hey everybody Rob and we're here and today we're going to go through Tesla's 10Q quarterly filing. We get some more interesting details on Tesla's earnings report and I know it's a 10Q but we'll keep it interesting. We've also got some updates on the Cybertruck and a busy calendar week this week and a couple other items as well.

大家好，我是Rob，今天我们将一起浏览特斯拉的10Q季度报告。我们将了解到一些关于特斯拉收益报告的有趣细节，虽然这是一份10Q报告，但我们会保持有趣。此外，我们还将得到一些关于Cybertruck的更新，以及本周繁忙的日程安排和其他几个项目。

Alright, turned into a pretty nice day for Tesla stock to start the week off after a rougher reaction to earnings at the end of last week. Tesla today up about 3.5% closing at $269.6. The NASDAQ today only up 2.5% also trailing the Dow and the S&P. That NASDAQ 100 rebalance that reduced the weight of the top market cap stocks in the NASDAQ 100 including Tesla. That took effect today so any benchmarking or front running of that adjustment was probably completed on Friday and this was probably our first day without that impact in quite some time. Tough to know exactly how impactful that was but definitely glad that we are now through that period.

好的，对于特斯拉股票来说，这是一个不错的开局，与上周末盈利的反应相比要好一些。特斯拉今天上涨约3.5%，收于269.6美元。纳斯达克今天仅上涨2.5%，也落后于道琼斯和标准普尔指数。纳斯达克100指数的重新平衡导致了纳斯达克100中市值排名靠前的股票，包括特斯拉的权重减少。这个调整从今天开始生效，所以相关的基准和收益无疑在上周五完成，而我们很可能是在很长一段时间内第一次没有受到这一影响的日子。很难确定这一影响到底有多大，但我们肯定很高兴现在已经度过了这个时期。

As we look ahead to the rest of this week it should be a busy one. Of course we have the FOMC meeting and interest rate decision on Wednesday. We've got PCE, personal consumption expenditures on Friday. And although Tesla has already reported there are a ton of earnings reports this week which could cause some volatility in the markets. So lots going on that will affect things in addition to Tesla news.

当我们展望这周剩下的日子时，应该会很忙碌。当然，周三我们有FOMC会议和利率决定。周五我们还有个人消费支出（PCE）。虽然特斯拉已经发布了财报，但本周还有大量的财报将可能引发市场的波动。所以除了特斯拉的新闻外，还有很多其他事情会影响行情。

We did also have an analyst downgrade for Tesla today that was from UBS. They downgraded from an outperform rating to neutral based on the growth and the share price that we have seen recently. So they did actually up their price target from $220 to $270 but downgrading to neutral saying that we think the recent strong share performance fully reflects the strong demand response seen after the price cuts as well as a solid execution into 2024. And adding that Tesla remains the undisputed truly global technology scale and cost leader in the EV space with unparalleled software capabilities. However for the next 12 months we think upside risk to consensus earnings is very limited with significant volumes from new product for Cybertruck and affordable model. Back kicking in before the second half of 2024 and with some initial margin dilutive impact. So kind of a similar perspective to what we talked about after the second quarter report especially relating to factory upgrades happening in Q3. Why wouldn't an investor just wait until those are complete and then buy. This seems to be an expanded view on that same sort of logic or opinion. And there's some validity to that but a lot of times stocks react positively to things that we just don't know about or don't foresee. But the reaction that we saw in the stock after Ford's announcement of adopting NACS being a perfect example of that. That was the longest run of positive days in Tesla's history being contributed to by something that you couldn't look at it in calendar and point out when it would happen. Anyway, we'll move on from that but we do have another quick update on Tesla and India. It's a report from Reuters that says Tesla representatives are set to meet India's Commerce Minister this month to discuss plans to build a factory to produce what the company has described as an all new $24,000 car, a person with direct knowledge of the matter, sold Reuters.

今天我们还有来自瑞银的特斯拉分析师下调评级的消息。他们将评级从“强于大市”下调为“中性”，原因是近期我们所见的增长和股价。尽管他们将目标股价从220美元上调至270美元，但他们认为近期强劲的股价表现已充分反映了降价后的强劲需求反应以及2024年的良好执行能力。他们还补充说，特斯拉仍然是电动汽车领域无可争议的全球技术规模和成本领导者，并具有无与伦比的软件能力。然而，在接下来的12个月里，对盈利的上行风险受到新产品Cybertruck和经济型车型的销量影响，这可能会导致一定程度的利润率下降。因此，这与我们在二季度报告后讨论的观点相似，尤其与第三季度进行的工厂升级相关。为什么投资者不等到这些升级完成然后再购买呢？这似乎是对同样逻辑或观点的扩展性观点。虽然这种观点是有道理的，但很多时候股票对我们所不知道或无法预料的事情有积极的反应。例如，福特公司宣布采用NACS的信息引发的对特斯拉股票价格的连续上涨就是一个很好的例子。那是特斯拉历史上连续上涨天数最长的一次，而这是一件之前无法预知的事情。总之，我们会从这个话题上转移，但现在我们有关于特斯拉在印度的另一个快速更新。路透社的报道称，特斯拉代表将在本月与印度商务部长会面，商讨建厂生产该公司所描述的全新24,000美元汽车的计划。消息人士告诉路透社。

Alright, so a couple things out of that. First Tesla talks seem to be progressing, more meetings with other government officials, and then also that $24,000 number is interesting since that was used so precisely in the headline here and is a little bit more specific than what we had previously heard which was a report of somewhere around or under $25,000. But if we look at the report closely, Reuters goes on to say that the $2 million rupee, $24,000 EV Tesla representatives were said to have described in discussions about a potential Indian plant would be 25% cheaper than its current lowest price offering the Model 3 sedan, which sells for the equivalent of just over $32,200 in China.

好的，从这中间得出了几个要点。首先，特斯拉的谈判似乎正在进展，与其他政府官员的会议越来越多；而且那个2.4万美元的数字很有趣，因为它在标题中被使用得十分精确，比我们之前听说的大致不到2.5万美元要具体一些。然而，如果我们仔细看报道，路透社继续表示，在关于潜在印度工厂的讨论中，特斯拉代表所描述的那辆价值约200万卢比（折合2.4万美元）的电动车将比其目前最低价的Model 3轿车便宜25％。而Model 3在中国售价刚刚超过3.22万美元。

Alright, so the $24,000 number sounds very specific sounds like oh maybe it's progressed a little bit more, Tesla's got that specific price target but it's really just based off of $2 million rupees, obviously we have a significant digit issue here so if we put this in a conversion calculator, yeah it's $24,400 but it's obviously just in that same $25,000 ballpark that we've heard about for a while so nothing new in terms of that price point or the level of specificity that Reuters is using here which is a little bit annoying considering that they are not only ignoring significant digits but then also rounding down off of that.

好的，所以24000美元的数字听起来很具体，好像进展了一点，特斯拉有了这个具体的价格目标，但实际上它只是基于200万卢比，显然在这里我们有一个有效数字的问题，因此如果我们将其放入转换计算器中，嗯，那就是24400美元，但显然它仍然在我们之前听到的25000美元左右的范围内，所以在价格点或路透社在这里使用的具体级别方面没有什么新意，这有点让人烦恼，因为他们不仅忽略了有效数字，还将其四舍五入。

Alright, let's move into the 10Q, these are filed after each quarterly earnings provide a little bit more insight on what Tesla had previously published and occasionally some additional disclosures so I went through and will recap the highlights here. One thing I always like to look at is how revenue is coming in by region, we don't get that prior to the 10Q but we can see here how it breaks down between US, China and other international regions and I think here one thing that immediately jumps out is for other international revenue was about $7.9 billion in the second quarter up from $3.5 billion last year but we have to remember that there were significant shutdowns in China relating to COVID last year in Q2 so because of those shutdowns Tesla likely prioritized the very limited Gikushang high production more domestically in China last year at this point so China deliveries would have been hurt and also other international deliveries would have been impacted by that as well so that's why we're seeing the doubling here at least primarily why we're seeing the doubling if you shift over to that six month aggregate so the first half of this year it's up 69% year over year so you can see obviously the growth in the first quarter this year which we'll look at in a second would have been much less significant than the 100% plus that we're seeing in Q2.

好的，我们来看一下10Q报告，这些报告是在每个季度收益公布后提交的，提供了一些关于特斯拉此前公布的信息的更多见解，有时还包含一些额外披露的内容，所以我浏览了一遍，并在这里对要点进行了总结。我一直喜欢查看的一点是收入按地区的分布情况，我们在10Q报告之前无法获得这些数据，但在这里我们可以看到它是如何在美国、中国和其他国际地区之间分配的，我认为这里一个立即引人注目的事实是其他国际地区的收入在第二季度为79亿美元，较去年的35亿美元增加了约两倍，但我们必须记住，去年Q2时中国由于COVID而出现了重大停工，所以由于这些停工，特斯拉很可能在去年的这个时候更多地将生产优先权放在了中国国内市场上，因此中国市场的交付会受到影响，而其他国际市场的交付也会受到影响，这就是为什么我们看到销售翻倍的原因，至少主要原因如此。如果我们转向这半年的总计数据，今年上半年的销售同比增长了69%，所以可以看出，今年第一季度的增长显然要比我们在Q2中看到的100%以上的增长要小得多，我们稍后会详细讨论第一季度的情况。

Because of those factors on the second quarter last year I think the quarter over quarter number is a little bit more informative so I've broken those out here as we of course already knew from the Q2 report total revenue was up almost 7% to about $25 billion but by region the United States was up 1% China up 17% quarter over quarter and other international markets up 9% quarter over quarter. Obviously China sticks out and we've talked a number of times about how this was a record quarter in China but we also have to remember that Q1 did have Chinese New Year which probably had a decent impact on the Q1 China revenue.

由于去年第二季度的这些因素，我认为季度环比数据更具说明性，所以我将其分开列出。当然，根据第二季度报告，总收入增长了近7%，达到约250亿美元，但按地区划分，美国季度环比增长了1%，中国季度环比增长了17%，其他国际市场季度环比增长了9%。显然，中国的增长很引人注目，我们已经多次谈到这是中国的最佳季度，但我们也必须记住，第一季度有中国新年，这可能在第一季度的中国收入上产生了一定的影响。

Next I would normally take a look specifically at automotive revenue and margins Tesla gives explanations for why margins changed but we already know all those we've talked about them. Selling prices have come down costs have come down but not enough to maintain margins so that was pretty much the whole explanation there. So moving into energy I was curious what Tesla would have to say on margins because we did see such a big jump from Q1 in a Q2 from about 11% up to 18% which quarter over quarter just so happens to be about the same increase as the margins year over year.

接下来，我通常会重点关注汽车收入和利润率，特斯拉解释了为什么利润率发生了变化，但我们已经知道了所有这些，我们已经讨论过了。销售价格下降，成本也下降了，但不足以维持利润率，这就是整个解释的主要内容。所以我对能源方面的情况很感兴趣，因为我们看到从第一季度到第二季度的利润率大幅上升，从大约11%上升到18%，这个季度同比增长的幅度正好与年度利润率的增长幅度相同。

We don't get a whole lot from Tesla here but they say those year over year margin increases were driven by changes in megapack revenue and cost per megawatt hour which Tesla says were driven down due to production increases. So definitely what we want to see in the business I think here a simple explanation is a positive because there isn't really anything that Tesla is pointing to and saying hey this was more of a one time item or a unique circumstance really it was just saying production improved costs improved and therefore margins increased so hopefully this is something that can be sustainable or even continue to grow for Tesla through the rest of the year.

我们这里没有从特斯拉那里得到很多信息，但他们说，同比利润率的增长是由于超级电池组收入和每兆瓦时成本的变化驱动的，特斯拉表示这是由于生产增加而导致的成本下降。所以我认为，对于业务来说，一个简单的解释是积极的，因为特斯拉并没有指出这更多是一次性项目或者特殊情况，实际上它只是说生产改善，成本改善，因此利润率提高，所以希望这是特斯拉在今年余下时间内可持续甚至继续增长的一件事。

Also on energy as we have talked about there is a significant portion of revenue that ends up deferred so Tesla gets paid but they don't recognize it yet because the project isn't finished. They say this deferred revenue at the end of the quarter was $1.1 billion.

关于能源部分，正如我们之前讨论的，有相当大一部分的收入会被延后支付，因此特斯拉会收到款项，但由于项目尚未完成，他们还未确认收入。据他们称，本季末的延后收入达到了11亿美元。

Looking back to the 10Q from the first quarter that figure was $770 million so their deferred revenue balance on energy grew by $340 million which makes sense in conjunction with energy storage deployed at being down quarter over quarter but the unrecognized or deferred revenue growing by $330 million or 40% quarter over quarter.

回顾第一季度的10Q文件，该数字为7.7亿美元，因此他们在能源方面的递延收入增加了3.4亿美元，与季度间能量存储的部署下降相吻合，但未被认可的或递延收入却增加了3.3亿美元，同比增长了40%。

So overall I would say the 10Q a continuance of the good news from the earnings report for energy.

总的来说，我认为这份10Q报告延续了能源收益报告中的好消息。

Since we're on deferred revenue I always like to take a look at FSD deferred revenue. Tesla says that deferred revenue related to FSD and ongoing maintenance, internet connectivity, free supercharging programs over their software updates, the grouping of all of these things though predominantly most likely FSD revenue amounted to $3.17 billion at the end of the quarter. That's up from $3.04 billion at the end of last quarter so a little bit of an increase but that increase was actually paired with a drawdown on the prior quarter's deferred revenue balance. Tesla says that in the first six months of the year they have recognized $256 million of the year and deferred revenue balance whereas last quarter that number was only $134 million so by my read, it looks like they recognized $122 million from this balance this quarter. Now it's not necessarily FSD related it could be from those other items mentioned especially because Tesla didn't specifically call this out so we don't necessarily know what margin this would be at which makes the impact a little bit tough to assess but definitely important to know that this was recognized.

既然我们正在谈论递延收益，我想先看一下特斯拉关于全自动驾驶(FSD)的递延收益。特斯拉表示，递延收益与FSD、持续维护、互联网连接以及免费超级充电计划的软件更新有关，总体上主要是FSD收益。截至本季度末，递延收益总额为31.7亿美元，而上一季度末则为30.4亿美元，增加了一点点，不过这个增长实际上是与上一季度的递延收益余额下降有关的。特斯拉表示，今年上半年他们已经确认了2.56亿美元的全年递延收益余额，而上个季度仅为1.34亿美元，所以根据我的理解，本季度从这个余额中确认了1.22亿美元的收入。现在这并不一定与FSD有关，可能是来自其他提到的项目，特斯拉并没有特别指出，所以我们不完全了解这将产生的利润率，这就使得影响有点难以评估，但肯定要知道这一点已经确认了。

Tesla says that of the current deferred revenue balance they expect to recognize $747 million of revenue in the next 12 months that would be an average of $185 million a quarter so a little bit higher than where they have been in the first two quarters this year. As of last quarter, they said that they expected to recognize $679 million so that is increased a bit.

特斯拉表示，根据目前的递延收入余额，他们预计在接下来的12个月内将认可7.47亿美元的收入，这将平均为每个季度1.85亿美元，略高于今年前两个季度的水平。根据上个季度的数据，他们曾表示预计将认可6.79亿美元的收入，因此这个数字有所增加。

Next, a quick note on inventory. Inventory overall for Tesla, we're not talking about just finished vehicles here we're talking about all of their inventory it's added about $14.4 billion that's actually pretty much identical to where it was in Q1 some moving around between buckets higher finished goods inventory for Tesla this quarter but offset by reductions in raw materials and work in process inventory. So primarily pointing that out because the reductions in those buckets those help with Tesla's free cash flow for this individual quarter.

接下来，简单说说库存情况。对于特斯拉来说，库存不仅仅指已完成的车辆，而是包括其所有库存。总体而言，库存增加了约144亿美元，在第一季度基本上与出现差不多。这个季度特斯拉的成品库存有所增加，但原材料和在制品库存有所减少，这要特别提到。因为这些减少有助于特斯拉在本季度的自由现金流。

A couple things on expenses so we talked about the big increase in R&D driving operating margin down Tesla again reiterating in this 10Q that that year over year increase in D was primarily driven by additional costs related to the pre-production phase for Cybertruck, AI and other programs so definitely not an increase that I mind and then for capital expenditures Tesla continues to guide to $7 to $9 billion in 2023 and the following two fiscal years so no change on that guidance.

关于费用方面有几个要点，我们谈到了研发支出的大幅增加，导致特斯拉的运营利润率下降；在这份10Q报告中，特斯拉再次重申，D（预算）的同比增长主要是由Cybertruck、人工智能和其他项目的预生产阶段带来的额外成本所驱动，所以这并不是一个我在意的增长；至于投资支出，特斯拉仍然指导2023年及随后两个财政年度的金额为70至90亿美元，这一指导没有变化。

Finally, a couple of additional disclosures there is a disclosure in here about that handlesblad article that there had been some leaked data about Tesla's safety and autopilot and things like that Tesla said that they are investigating this and working with certain law enforcement and other authorities on unfavorable ruling could develop but again this is a risk disclosure so not anything that people shouldn't have already realized but I guess confirmation that there are discussions there with law enforcement.

最后，还有一些额外的披露，其中提到了关于那篇Handlesblad文章的披露，提到关于特斯拉的安全性、自动驾驶等方面的一些泄露数据。特斯拉表示他们正在对此进行调查，并且与某些执法机构和其他有关机构合作。可能会出现不利的裁决，但这只是一项风险披露，不是什么人们不应该已经意识到的事情，但我猜想这是对与执法机构开展讨论存在的确认。

And then lastly this is noted in the 10Q but Tesla also filed an 8k late last week on the proposed settlement agreement regarding the return of some compensation from the board of directors for the time period between 2017 and 2020 like we had talked about. I wasn't sure exactly how that would be handled in the financials. I don't think that has been fully disclosed but part of this 8k does note that the settlement hearing would be on October 13th so nothing would be reflected on Tesla's financials until after that date presumably so we'll keep an eye on that.

然后最后，《10Q》中指出，特斯拉上周晚些时候还提交了一份8K文件，涉及有关董事会2017年至2020年期间返回部分薪酬的拟议和解协议，正如我们之前所讨论的。我不确定这将如何在财务报表中处理。我认为这尚未完全披露，但是该8K文件中提到，解决听证会将于10月13日进行，因此在该日期之前，特斯拉的财务报表不会反映任何信息，所以我们将继续关注。

Alright we're through all of that if any of that was boring well we've got some new Cybertruck photos here an interesting new wrap from Tesla I think John Anderson the first one to share these photos it looks like Tesla put an F-150 style wrap on the Cybertruck. Looks pretty funny there's even a short video of it driving around the test track you can't see too much from either of these but glad to see Tesla continuing to have some fun with these various Cybertruck wraps and maybe some not so subtle foreshadowing on the truck industry.

好的，我们已经完成了所有这些内容，如果其中有任何无聊的地方，那么我们在这里有一些新的Cybertruck照片，还有特斯拉的一个有趣的新包装。我认为约翰·安德森是第一个分享这些照片的人，看起来特斯拉给Cybertruck上贴了一层F-150风格的包装。看起来很滑稽，甚至还有一段它在测试赛道上行驶的短视频。从这些图片和视频中看不到太多，但很高兴看到特斯拉继续以各种Cybertruck包装带来一些乐趣，或许对卡车行业有一些不那么明显的预示。

Outside of the wraps, we do also see the front trunk area it does look relatively small in these photos and pretty heavily populated with other equipment so we might have to temper our expectations a bit on the size of the front but as always with photos like this it can be a little bit difficult to get the true sense of scale.

除了包装之外，我们还可以看到前行李箱区域，从这些照片来看，它看起来相对较小，并且用其他设备密集地占据着空间，所以我们可能需要稍微调整一下对前行李箱尺寸的期望，但是像这样的照片总是有些难以真正感受到比例的真实感。

Outside of the F-150 wrapped Cybertruck there was also a video of the camouflage version from up pretty close shared on twitter by Jan Masoch I don't think there's anything too new here just kind of a quick walk around.

除了被F-150包裹的Cybertruck外，还有一段由Jan Masoch在Twitter上分享的近距离拍摄的迷彩版本的视频。我觉得这里没有什么新鲜的东西，只是一个快速的漫游。

Alright and then last item for today sounds like I'm not going to be saying shared on twitter too much longer as Elon has now started the process of rebranding it to X they have swapped the logo out and Elon's domain of X.com now points to twitter which is pretty cool because if you've got a twitter account your twitter page is now X.com slash whatever it is so X.com slash Tesla podcast that now points to my page and that will be even more interesting as twitter becomes a broader platform over time.

好的，今天最后一件事听起来好像我在推特上不再说分享很长时间了，因为埃隆现在已经开始将其重新品牌为X。他们已经用新标志替换了旧标志，埃隆的X.com域名现在指向推特，这很酷，因为如果你有一个推特账号，你的推特页面现在将是X.com/任何内容，比如X.com/Tesla podcast，这将在推特随着时间变得更广泛的平台上变得更加有趣。

Alright that'll wrap it up for today then as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on twitter or X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday July 25th episode on Tesla daily thank you.

好的，那就算是今天的节目到此结束了，一如既往地感谢你的聆听，确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，你也可以在twitter或者X上找到我，我的节目叫做“特斯拉播客”，明天我们会再见面，在7月25日星期二的特斯拉日报节目中再次感谢你。