Some Tesla Things Never Change ⚡️
发布时间 2023-07-20 21:52:10 来源
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#TeslaQ2 #TeslaEarnings #TeslaStock
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There have been 52 quarterly earnings reports in Tesla's history since its IPO in June 2010. How many of those can you point to and remember today? Probably not many and this quarter will be no different. Don't misunderstand me, I love the quarterly reports, getting a peek behind the curtain of the business, getting an update on how things are trending, getting to hear the team talk about the business.
自2010年6月特斯拉首次公开募股（IPO）以来，其历史上已经有52份季度盈利报告。你能够指出并记得其中有多少份吗？可能不会很多，而本季度也不例外。不要误会我的意思，我喜欢这些季度报告，可以窥探企业的内幕，了解企业走势的最新动向，还能听到团队对企业的讨论。
But I feel like I need to be a voice toning down the importance of quarterly results, especially when it comes to metrics like margins, operating cash flow, ASPs and the like. As a long term investor, these numbers are going to fluctuate and taking a screenshot in time of the business and projecting that into the future for a company like Tesla is a fool's errand.
但是我觉得我需要发出一个声音，降低季度业绩的重要性，特别是当涉及到利润率、经营现金流、ASP等指标时。作为一位长期投资者，这些数字将会波动不定，将企业的当前情况截屏并将其未来投射到像特斯拉这样的公司上，是愚蠢的行为。
With that disclaimer out there, I do have a few thoughts I'd like to share. First, I have to say it, the questions that are asked, mostly by Wall Street, are flat out painful and a waste of time most of the time. How many times do we need to ask about Tesla's pricing and margin strategy? Hint hint, fellas, it's the same it's been now for years. Adjust the pricing as needed to continually grow production and delivery numbers, so whatever interest rates and consumer demand dictates, that's what it will be. And yes, Tesla is willing to let margins go lower if need be.
在这里，我想先声明一下，我确实有一些想要分享的想法。首先，不得不说，大部分由华尔街提出的问题真的令人痛苦，而且很多时候是浪费时间。我们需要多少次询问特斯拉的定价和利润策略？嗯，提示一下，伙计们，它们多年来一直都是一样的。根据需要调整定价以持续增加产量和交付量，所以无论利率和消费者需求如何，公司都会根据情况进行调整。是的，特斯拉愿意降低利润率，如果需要的话。
On the flip side, how about the questions that were not asked? Nothing about Project Thailand, the Gigabrelin expansion, 4680 production in Berlin, no update on Gigamexico, etc. After a number of years of going through this, it's just frustrating and I'm sure a lot of you would agree.
相比之下，那些没有被提出的问题呢？关于泰国项目、Gigabrelin扩张、柏林的4680生产以及Gigamexico的最新动态都没有被问到。经过这么多年的经历，这让人感到沮丧，我相信很多人都会同意。
Elon also seemed to be in a great mood, he was willing to share and explain things, he was joking around a lot and laughing on a majority of his responses. I know some people may perceive the team's demeanor as being arrogant, but personally I view it more as a shorty of proper execution in controlling the controllable. Tesla understands certain things that cause those metrics we talked about to fluctuate are out of their hands. Interest rates, consumer sentiment, disposable income, competition, or lack thereof. But Elon and co understand their position of strength from a decade plus of innovation and execution and they're now at a point where the business is not in jeopardy. Now the question is not if Tesla will grow, it's just how fast. Hearing Elon laugh and joke to me is a good sign he's pleased with how things are progressing across the business.
伊隆似乎心情非常好，他乐于分享和解释事情，经常开玩笑并在大多数回答中笑得很开心。我知道有些人可能认为团队的态度傲慢，但我个人更倾向于将其视为在控制可控因素方面的执行不当。特斯拉明白，导致我们谈论的那些指标波动的某些因素是他们无法控制的。利率、消费者情绪、可支配收入、竞争或缺乏竞争。但是，伊隆和他的团队了解他们的实力来自十多年的创新和执行，并且现在他们的业务并不处于危险之中。现在问题不是特斯拉是否会增长，而是增长的速度有多快。听到伊隆笑和开玩笑，对我来说意味着他对业务的进展感到满意。
There's also a point I hear many people make all the time, it goes something like this. XYZ is a drag on Tesla's margins right now. That thing could be Cybertruck production, Berlin and Austin ramping, 4680 production, Dojo, Optimus, etc. Listen, this is going to be the case for the next decade plus. These drags or margin headwinds are going to be a permanent part of Tesla's business for as long as they're trying to grow 50% per year. New factories, new car models, new ramp schedules, new battery factories, new neural net training hardware. This is part of why I say the focus on quarterly snapshots is silly. The spending before any revenue is recognized is going to be a part of Tesla's business going forward. Some people talk like it's going away soon and really that could not be further from the truth.
还有一个观点我听到很多人总是提起，大致意思是这样的。目前XYZ对特斯拉的利润率造成了拉低的影响。这可能是指Cybertruck的生产、柏林和奥斯汀的扩建、4680电池的生产、Dojo项目、Optimus项目等等。听着，这种情况将持续十年以上。这些对利润率产生负面影响的因素将是特斯拉业务中的永久部分，只要他们试图每年增长50%。新工厂、新车型、新的扩产计划、新电池工厂、新的神经网络训练硬件。这正是我说对季度业绩的关注是愚蠢的原因之一。在任何收入确认之前的支出将是特斯拉未来业务的一部分。有些人说它很快就会消失，但事实并非如此。
So as new opportunities and global incentives arise, Tesla will speed up or maybe other times decelerate its growth spending, but this is a normal business operation. And to the crowd out there that may have come away from the call disappointed, I'll grant you, there are times when Elon could answer questions more directly like the Cybertruck question. The question was about the specs, pricing and delivery timelines, but instead Elon went on a rant about demand being off the hook, then he talked about the production ram going as fast as the slowest part of the supply chain. At this point, it's like please, just give us a date when you'll announce the pricing and specs of the truck. That's what people want. So I understand your frustration. In fairness, an earnings call is not the place to talk about pricing and specs and new products. But given that fact, how about we have the moderator remove those questions that will not be directly answered.
所以，随着新机会和全球激励的出现，特斯拉将加快或者有时减缓其增长支出，但这是正常的商业运营。对于可能对电话会议感到失望的众人，我可以理解，在某些时候，埃隆可能会更直接地回答问题，比如关于Cybertruck的问题。问题是关于规格、定价和交付时间表的，但是埃隆并没有直接回答，而是大谈需求暴增，然后谈到生产速度受供应链中最慢的部分的限制。此时，我们只想知道您何时能公布卡车的定价和规格。这就是人们想要的。所以我理解你的失望。公平地说，财报电话会议不适合讨论定价、规格和新产品。但考虑到这一事实，我们能否请主持人删除那些无法直接回答的问题呢？
I find it simultaneously comical and sad that the analysts and mainstream media reaction yet again is super bearish and no one at all seems to be talking about the 4680 progress at Gigataxis.
我发现分析师和主流媒体的反应令人啼笑皆非、可悲不已，因为他们再一次表现出极度悲观的态度，却没有人讨论过Gigataxis在4680电池进展方面的情况。
80% production increase quarter over quarter and a 25% reduction in cogs due to improved cell yields. That's huge alone. And then we learned that the cyber cell is 10% higher energy density making it comparable to a 2170 cell. If Wall Street wants higher margins for Tesla in the future, it's investments like this right now that need to happen but it takes time to play out.
季度产量增长80%，由于细胞产量提高导致成本下降25%。单这一点就已经是巨大的进步。而且我们还了解到，新型细胞的能量密度比起2170型细胞高出10%，达到可与其媲美的水平。如果华尔街希望未来特斯拉的利润率更高，现在就需要进行像这样的投资，但这需要时间来验证。
A car company has made over 10 million battery cells completely in house at one factory. That's not too bad. Tesla always talks about the importance of data and speaking of that data. Do you guys remember a time when being a private citizen was still a thing? What changed the internet? Think about everything you've ever searched for every video you've ever watched every tweet you've ever composed. All of that data being collected, scraped, aggregated, and compiled into a public record that these data brokers then go ahead and sell.
一家汽车公司在一家工厂内自主生产了超过1000万个电池单元，这还不错。特斯拉一直强调数据的重要性，说到数据，你们还记得一个私人公民的时代吗？互联网是怎样变化的呢？想想你曾经搜索过的每一个内容，看过的每一个视频，写过的每一条推文。所有这些数据都被收集、抓取、聚合并编制成一份公共记录，然后由这些数据经纪商出售。
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One point I really want to drive home is about Tesla energy. I've scoured the web and most of the analyst and media reactions today don't mention Tesla energy at all. The energy division is now up to 18.4% gross margin up from 11% in quarter one on lower revenues and lower megawatt hour deployments quarter over quarter. This is incredible news. This also means that in a future quarter, whether it's quarter three, four or one next year, there's going to be a big volume spike in deployments, which will most likely send Tesla energy margins over 20% higher than the car business right now on lower megawatt hour volume deployments this quarter, Tesla made $278 million in profit from Tesla energy and utilize that's $1.1 billion in profit.
我想强调的一点是关于特斯拉能源（Tesla energy）。我查看了网络上的大部分分析师和媒体反应，今天没有提到特斯拉能源。能源部门的毛利率已经上升到了18.4％，而第一季度只有11％，尽管营收和每季度的兆瓦时部署量下降。这是令人难以置信的消息。这也意味着在未来的季度中，无论是第三季度、第四季度还是明年的第一季度，企业将有大规模的部署量增长，很可能会使特斯拉能源的利润率超过20％，高于现在的汽车业务。在本季度的低兆瓦时部署量中，特斯拉从特斯拉能源中获得了2.78亿美元的利润，并利用这些利润达到了11亿美元。
Tesla's storage deployed on a down quarter due to timing of contracts was still up 222% year over year. Five times the growth of Tesla's auto business, yet not a single headline about it. And this isn't just a few hundred megawatt hours we're talking about coming from some super small base. We're talking now around three to four gigawatt hours per quarter being deployed this year. I've said it before, I'll say it again, Tesla energy should not be an afterthought anymore. And if analysts come out with reactions and don't even mention Tesla energy, you have to wonder what are they really doing on the FSD licensing. My guess is Ford, it's great news, but most of us have seen it coming for a while. The bigger story is what this will signify to the markets when it actually happens. Not only is Tesla superior with the charging infrastructure, but next it's going to be a sentiment shift that Tesla is far superior with autonomous capability. And this will be tangible evidence of that having the competition come to Tesla is an admission that they cannot compete a waving of the white flag. And eventually the markets will pick up on this so it'll just be later than it should be as always.
特斯拉的存储产品在上个季度由于合同时间的延迟导致营收下降，但同比上涨了222%。这个增长是特斯拉汽车业务的5倍，然而却没有一个标题报道。而且这不仅仅是几百兆瓦时的电量，我们现在每个季度部署的电量大约是3到4吉瓦时。我以前说过，我再说一遍，特斯拉能源现在不应该再被忽视了。如果分析师发表评论却连提特斯拉能源都没有，你要怀疑他们真的在FSD许可上做了什么。我猜想是福特，这是个好消息，但我们中的大多数人早就预见到了。更重要的是，当这个实际发生时，它将对市场产生什么影响。特斯拉不仅在充电基础设施方面卓越，而且下一步它将在自动驾驶能力上远远领先。这将是明显的证据，竞争对手来找特斯拉意味着他们无法竞争，这是举白旗的表明。最终市场将会意识到这一点，只是比应该意识到的时间晚了些，这一直都是这样。
And to everyone who's been begging for that FSD transfer, here are the new terms and conditions.
对于一直在苦苦请求FSD转让的所有人，这是新的条款和条件。
Quarter three is your time, one time only so make your plans to upgrade now. This should result in an influx of used Tesla vehicles. So if you're in that market, stay ready.
第三季度是你的时机，只有一次，所以要现在开始制定你的升级计划。这应该会导致特斯拉二手车市场的涌入。所以如果你正处于这个市场中，请做好准备。
And to everyone that just traded in your car with FSD before this announcement, I'm sorry that is very unfortunate. I feel for you. I did love to see Tesla's free cash flow reverse positive this quarter. Simply put, after all expenses to grow the business, Tesla still generated over a billion dollars this quarter that increased the war chest to over $23 billion, with only $44 million of debt. That's really, really good.
对于刚在发布这一消息前卖掉开有全自动驾驶（FSD）功能的汽车的所有人，我感到非常遗憾。我对你们深表同情。我很高兴看到特斯拉本季度的自由现金流转为正数。简单来说，在扣除所有经营开支之后，特斯拉本季度仍然创造了超过十亿美元的收入，使储备金增加到230亿美元，仅有4400万美元的债务。这非常、非常好。
And just think for a moment, all of the money Tesla is spending right now on future growth projects, they're earning no money from now. Optimist Dojo, Cybertruck, NextGen platform, products we don't yet know about.
想一想吧，特斯拉目前为未来的增长项目所花费的所有资金，现在它们并没有带来任何利润。乐观的是，有乐自学馆、Cybertruck、下一代平台以及我们目前尚不知晓的产品。
And on Tesla's inventory, I loved what they said to clarify. It's vehicles and transit, test drive vehicles, and display vehicles that account for the majority of total days of supply. Drill this one into your memory bank the next time an article starts trending about Tesla's inventory being a problem. That argument is laughable.
在特斯拉的库存问题上，我喜欢他们对此做出的澄清。大多数存货天数主要是由车辆和运输、试乘车辆和展示车辆所造成的。下次看到关于特斯拉库存成问题的文章时，请把这个观点牢记在心。那样的论点是可笑的。
When people spew out the Tesla is producing more cars each quarter than they deliver as a bear argument, just know that person respectfully is clueless. Speaking of deliveries, Tesla did say they're working on better vehicle finance options. So whether this is more captive financing from Tesla, or working in partnership with the big banks, this is a great lever for making Tesla vehicles more affordable, especially in this interest rate environment.
当人们以特斯拉每个季度生产车辆的数量超过交付数量来质疑特斯拉时，请知道这些人是对此一无所知的。谈到交付问题，特斯拉确实表示他们正在努力改进汽车金融选项。所以无论是特斯拉提供更多的金融选择，还是与大型银行合作，这将极大地降低特斯拉车辆的售价，特别是在当前利率环境下。
Oh, and Tesla's listed production capacity now totals 2.02 million vehicles per year. This one won't be a big deal for Tesla financially, but can we touch on the optimist parts pairing with Neuralink for amputees? I mean, my goodness, how can we not be excited about things like this? Life-changing technology, potentially, for millions of people could be right around the corner, but people would rather harp on Tesla potentially cutting prices in turbulent times. Give me a break.
哦，特斯拉现在上市的生产能力总计每年为2.02百万辆汽车。对特斯拉来说，这对其财务上来说不是什么大问题，但我们能谈谈与神经链接（Neuralink）合作为截肢者提供乐观的部分吗？我的意思是，天哪，我们怎么能对这样的事情不兴奋呢？对数百万人来说，这可能是改变生活的技术，可能就在不远的将来，但人们更愿意对特斯拉在动荡时期潜在的降价进行吹毛求疵。给我一个休息的机会吧。
Another overlooked data point, Tesla's services and other line item has now had positive margins for five quarters in a row. This is notable because it's historically been a drag on margins for basically Tesla's entire history. At 7.7% margin this quarter, up from 3.8% in quarter two last year, this is just another business line for Tesla now making money instead of losing it.
另一个被忽视的数据点是，特斯拉的服务和其他项目连续五个季度拥有正面盈利能力。这一点很显著，因为在特斯拉的整个历史中，服务项目一直是盈利的负担。本季度的利润率为7.7%，较去年第二季度的3.8%有所提高，这意味着特斯拉的另一项业务线现在开始赚钱而不是亏损。
This category is Tesla's used vehicle business supercharging and non-woranty work plus some others. There have been some fair questions out there about the repairability of Teslas with Gigacas. I know you've already heard it, but since repetition is the mother of learning, here it is. And Martin, that's simply not true. There's a misconception that traditional bodies are easy to repair, but they are made of multiple materials and multiple joining methods. Spot wells and rivets have to be drilled out, panels and structural adhesive have to be chiseled out, tried adhesive has to be removed, stampede, cut, blah, blah, blah. It's a crazy patch, real quote. Yeah. And so putting that back together means time and money. Using an example of replacing a rear cast rail on a Model Y to do that versus what we replaced it with from the Model 3, it's 10 times cheaper and three times faster to do it with a cast rail.
这个类别是特斯拉的二手车业务、超级充电和非保修工作，还有一些其他内容。有些人对特斯拉与吉加车的可修复性提出了一些公正的问题。我知道你已经听过了，但是重复是学习的母亲，所以我再说一遍。马丁，那不是真的。有一种误解认为传统车身容易修复，但它们由多种材料和多种连接方法组成。需要钻出点焊和铆钉，需要切割面板和结构胶粘剂，需要去除试验粘剂，摸索、切割，等等。这是一个疯狂的补丁，真的。是的，所以重新组装起来需要时间和金钱。以更换一辆Model Y的后部铸铁轨为例，用铸铁轨做这个工作比用Model 3的零部件更便宜十倍，速度更快三倍。
My design team works with our collision repair team since we're closed loop on this with insurance and we design specific parts that are making it easier and faster to repair. And we have an incentive to do that because we have our own insurance and our own body shops. We expect that we'll continue to do this and collision repair will continue to become cheaper and faster over time. And we already made this available to all body shops through our Tesla approved body shop training. Yeah, closing loop on collision repair, I'm factoring that into design is a big deal. It's crucial. I don't think anyone else can do it with that ecosystem that we have. Yeah. And we are actually able to change the details of the casting with inserts. And we actually do that all the time. So because the answer is actually we're out and need to be replaced anyway. So we can actually make design changes to the inserts and tweak the castings. But the cast, basically cast a rear body or front body is lighter, cheaper, better for noise vibration, or harshness, much easier to manufacture. And it's better in every way. And that's why so many other car companies are copying us.
我的设计团队与我们的碰撞修复团队合作，因为我们与保险公司形成了闭环，我们设计了一些特定的零部件，使得修复变得更加简便快捷。我们有动力这样做，因为我们拥有自己的保险和修车厂。我们预计这种合作会持续下去，随着时间推移，碰撞修复将变得更便宜、更快捷。而且我们已经通过特斯拉认可的修车厂培训向所有修车厂开放了这项技术。是的，在碰撞修复方面形成闭环，并将其纳入到设计中，这非常重要，关键是我认为没有其他公司能够做到我们拥有的生态系统。是的，我们实际上可以通过插入件来改变铸件的细节。这是我们一直在做的事情。因为答案实际上是我们需要替换掉的。因此我们可以对插入件进行设计修改并且微调铸件。而铸造出来的后部或前部身体更轻、更便宜、更有利于降噪振动或硬度，更容易制造。它在各个方面都更好。这也是为什么有这么多其他汽车公司在效仿我们的原因。
I could of course go on, but to land the plane, what did we learn? Tesla is aggressively investing in future growth. The key unlock for Tesla 4680 production and autonomy are both making great progress. Tesla is still finding ways to drive costs down in tandem with commodity prices coming down, resulting in a greater cogs decrease than the average selling price decline from price cuts. And even after all of the spending on growth on all of the startups inside Tesla, they still generated over a billion dollars in free cash flow in a very challenging macro environment.
我当然还可以继续说下去，但为了总结一下，我们学到了什么呢？特斯拉正在积极投资未来的增长。特斯拉的4680电池生产和自动驾驶技术都取得了巨大进展。特斯拉仍在寻找降低成本的方法，与商品价格下降相辅相成，使成本的下降幅度超过了由于价格下降所带来的平均销售价格的下降。即使在特斯拉内部的所有初创公司的增长支出之后，在一个非常具有挑战性的宏观环境中，他们仍然产生了超过10亿美元的自由现金流。
Yet some things never change. JP Morgan's reaction is to put out a $120 Tesla stock brace target. Why is Tesla stock down? Who knows? But what I do know is this. It's like those manic depressive folks standing outside of a house shouting out different values every second, while nothing at all is changing with the house, like Elon said.
然而，有些事情永远不会改变。JP摩根的反应是设立了一项每股120美元的特斯拉股票支撑目标。特斯拉股票为何下跌？谁知道呢？但我知道的是这样的。就像那些躁郁症患者站在房子外面，每一秒钟都喊出不同的价值，而房子本身并没有发生任何变化，就像埃隆说的那样。
But in the case of Tesla, the house is actually continually improving and laying the groundwork for profitable, accelerated growth for years to come. Just like the last 52 quarterly earnings reports for Tesla, this one will fade into the background and the history books and be forgotten. But every quarter, without fail, we get to watch analysts and the media overreact with unbelievable shortsightedness. As I like to say, the longer they underestimate the more we can actually make.
然而，在特斯拉的情况下，公司实际上正在不断改善，并为未来几年的可盈利、快速增长打下基础。就像特斯拉过去52个季度的盈利报告一样，这一次也将渐渐被人遗忘在历史书籍中。然而，每个季度都可以看到分析师和媒体对此反应过度而短视。正如我喜欢说的那样，他们越低估，我们就能赚得更多。
Some things never change and with the right perspective, that's okay.
有些事永远不会改变，但如果有正确的观点，那也没关系。