Tesla Earnings Worse Than We Thought?

Hey everybody Rob Bauer here and today we are of course going to continue to talk about Tesla's earnings report, not the nicest reaction in the markets today, a couple of items that have come up that I think weren't further review. And we've got a couple other pieces of news as well, including details on FSD transfer ability.

大家好，我是罗伯·鲍尔，今天我们当然要继续谈论特斯拉的盈利报告，在市场上并没有得到很好的反应，有几个问题被提了出来，我认为需要进一步审视。另外，我们还有几条其他的新闻，包括有关全自动驾驶（FSD）转让能力的细节。

Alright, so looking at the stock Tesla today down just below 10% after the earnings report yesterday, 9.75% to close at $262.90, the NASDAQ on the day today down over 2%. So definitely not helping out there any other day you might expect Tesla to be down in the 3.5% or 4% range or so in the absence of other news with that kind of a macro performance. Plus we are of course heading into the NASDAQ 100 rebalancing like we have previously talked about. That goes into effect on Monday, so there is probably some influence of that right now. If we look at the top weighted stocks in the NASDAQ 100 that are going to be negatively affected by this rebalancing, all of them underperformed the NASDAQ overall, except for Apple. It doesn't mean that Tesla's earnings didn't contribute to the results today, obviously that had an influence, but I think there are other things that are pretty clearly creating a bit of a piling on effect today.

好的，所以今天看了一下特斯拉的股票，昨天发布了财报后下跌近10%，收盘时跌至262.90美元，纳斯达克指数今天下跌超过2%。所以在没有其他消息的情况下，特斯拉一般会下跌3.5%或4%，这与宏观表现有关。而且我们当然还要考虑到纳斯达克100指数的再平衡，我们之前已经讨论过了。该调整将于周一生效，现在肯定有一些影响。如果我们看一下纳斯达克100中市值权重较高的那些股票，它们都表现不如整个纳斯达克指数，除了苹果公司。这并不意味着特斯拉的盈利不影响今天的结果，显然它产生了影响，但我认为还有其他明显的因素导致了今天的压力增加。

Nevertheless it definitely creates the question of were these earnings worse than what we might have thought when we reviewed it yesterday, is there something that I missed? And we'll talk about that in just a second. Now we're not going to go through all of the analyst reactions, but from what I can tell it seems like they've been pretty positive, which isn't maybe all that surprising given that the numbers did come in ahead of analyst consensus. So despite the stocks reaction, I think a little bit more favorable from analysts.

然而，它确实引发了一个问题，就是这些收益是否比我们昨天审查时所认为的更糟糕，我是否错过了什么？我们马上会谈论这个问题。现在我们不会详细讨论所有分析师的反应，但从我所了解的情况来看，他们的反应似乎相当积极，这或许并不令人惊讶，因为数字确实超出了分析师共识。所以尽管股票的反应不太好，我认为分析师对它的评价更加有利。

Dan Ives, for example, increased his price target to what may be a street high at least close to a street high of $350 per share, up from 300 previously, saying quote, in a nutshell, we view Tesla where Apple was in the 2008 slash 2009 period as Cupertino was just starting to monetize its services and golden ecosystem with the street not seeing the broader golden vision at the time. So I think plenty of examples of that throughout Tesla's business, but unfortunately people just want to focus on oh my gosh, there's going to be maybe some downtime next quarter and poor financial results because of it, even though that's making fundamental improvements to the business in the future. But oftentimes the mentality seems to be well, I'll just buy something else for this quarter and then come back in a quarter once that stuff is behind us. So I think there's a fair amount of that at play, but let's talk a little bit more about earnings.

举个例子，丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）将他的股价目标提高到可能是街头最高值，至少接近于街头最高值的每股350美元，之前为每股300美元。他说：“简而言之，我们认为特斯拉就像苹果在2008年至2009年期间一样，当时苹果刚刚开始盈利其服务和黄金生态系统，而当时街市并未看到更广阔的黄金愿景。”所以我认为有很多类似的例子贯穿于特斯拉的业务，但不幸的是，人们只想关注哦天哪，可能在下个季度会有一些停机时间和糟糕的财务结果，尽管这些举措会为未来的业务带来根本性的改善。但常常的心态似乎是，嗯，我只是在本季度买点其他东西，然后等到那些问题解决后再回来。所以我认为在这方面有相当多的因素在起作用，但我们来稍微多谈谈收益。

Obviously yesterday I felt pretty positive about it. I think there's a lot of things a whole list of things to feel good about from the earnings report. Despite the share price reaction today, that very much remains my opinion. The one thing that I think has kind of come up that we didn't really talk a whole lot about yesterday that is a little bit of a fair criticism of Tesla's earnings results is this little line between operating income and that income called other income. So Tesla did call this out in the shareholder deck in the profitability section. We had talked about that they say that other income increased significantly due to some foreign exchange movements on certain intercompany balances. So things like that are what we would categorize as maybe a special item or a one time item, things that aren't going to repeat or even grow in terms of their benefit to the business, like gross profits from selling products might do. So it's completely reasonable to point that out and understand the impact that that is having.

显然，昨天我对此感到非常积极。我认为从收益报告中有很多事情可以让人感到满意。尽管今天股价的反应如此，我仍然坚持这样的观点。我认为一件我们昨天没有过多讨论的事情突然出现了，这是对特斯拉收益的一个有些公允的批评，即营业利润和其他收入之间的小差额。特斯拉在股东报告书的盈利部分中提到了这点。我们曾经讨论过他们说其他收入因某些子公司间的外汇变动而大幅增加。像这样的事情是我们可能将其归类为特殊项目或一次性项目的东西，这些东西不会重复出现，甚至不会像销售产品的毛利润那样增长对企业的好处。因此，指出并了解其影响是完全合理的。

So let's do a little bit better job of that today because in the second quarter, this line added $328 million of net income to Tesla. So that is significant, definitely worth understanding. If we pull in my forecast, this is my more detailed forecast, but we've got trailing 12 month actuals on the left and then my forecast and then the actuals for this quarter on the far right.

所以今天让我们在这方面做得更好一些，因为在第二季度，这一产品线为特斯拉贡献了3.28亿美元的净利润。这是非常重要的，绝对值得理解。如果我们看一下我的预测，这是我更详细的预测，但左边是过去12个月的实际数据，然后是我的预测，最右边是这个季度的实际数据。

You can see that my forecast for this line was a positive $10 million benefit. So huge difference here. That's definitely driving an increase in earnings per share that I was not expecting. That analysts wouldn't have been expecting. And most importantly, is very unlikely to be something that will be recurring in the future.

你可以看到，我对于这条线的预测是正面的，有1000万美元的利益。所以这里的差距非常大。这肯定会推动每股收益的增长，这是我没有预料到的，也是分析师没有预料到的。而且最重要的是，这种情况在未来很可能不会再次出现。

So knowing that line item, which we'll come back to, if we go and look at the actual results compared to analyst consensus, non gap net income was about $3.15 billion versus analyst consensus of about $2.78 billion. That's essentially a beat by $369 million.

那么，了解了这个项目之后，我们稍后会回来讨论，如果我们去看实际结果与分析师共识的比较，非通用会计准则下的净收入约为31.5亿美元，而分析师共识为27.8亿美元。基本上超出了3.69亿美元。

But if the analyst average consensus for this line item was zero, which we don't know what it was, but if it were zero, then a simplistic way of looking at this would be that, oh, almost 90% of the beat was driven by this other income. So fair enough, I guess, but I also didn't really hear anyone talking about this line when it was a negative $175 million impact over the last three quarters in aggregate.

但是，如果分析师对这个项目的平均共识为零（我们不知道具体数字），但如果是零的话，那么一种简单的观点是，噢，几乎90%的超额收益都是由其他收入带来的。我想也可以理解，不过我在过去的三个季度中并没有听到有人谈论这个项目，当时它给总体上造成了1.75亿美元的负面影响。

If you're going to remove special items from one quarter, you better have been doing that in the past as well. And as I previously mentioned, this is an overly simplistic way of looking at things because all line items matter. They all go into the bottom line shockingly. So it doesn't make a lot of sense to overly focus on this one volatile line item when there are multiple such line items in Tesla's business, one of which, of course, is regulatory credits.

如果你打算从一个季度中删除特殊项目，最好过去也一直这样做。正如我之前提到的，这种简单化的看法太过简单，因为所有项目都很重要，它们都对最终结果产生巨大影响。因此，在特斯拉业务中过度关注这个波动较大的项目并没有太多意义，因为有多个类似的项目，其中之一当然是监管信贷。

So if we add that to the view we were just looking at that's got the trailing 12 month actuals, my forecasts and then this quarter's actuals, of course, even though we saw a big jump in other income, we saw a big decline quarter over quarter in regulatory credits. The net of those two lines in Q2 was 610 million versus my forecast of 410 million.

所以，如果我们将这个加入我们刚刚查看的视图中，该视图包括过去12个月的实际数据、我的预测数据以及本季度的实际数据，当然，尽管我们看到其他收入出现了大幅增长，但我们在监管信用方面却看到了季度环比大幅下降。而在第二季度，这两个项目的净额为6.1亿美元，而我的预测为4.1亿美元。

So definitely helping out earnings, but pretty significantly less than just that line item alone would imply and same thing quarter over quarter, although there was about a $400 million shift in that other expense line, which sounds like, whoa, oh my gosh, that is driving a huge difference. If you aggregate these two, it was $473 million last quarter, 610 million this quarter. So only a difference of about 140 million.

所以肯定会有所帮助的收入，但实际上比仅有这个项目所表明的要少得多，而且季度之间也是如此。虽然在其他费用方面有约4亿美元的变动，听起来好像是个巨大的差异。如果你把这两者合起来看，上个季度是4.73亿美元，这个季度是6.1亿美元。所以只有大约1.4亿美元的差异。

So yeah, it's a significant benefit this quarter. It's probably not going to continue to be that big of a benefit going forward, but we have to understand that in context of all the other numbers and their volatility quarter quarter, but even if we choose to not do any of that as a reminder, even if you just drop this line down to zero, Tesla still beat expectations. So definitely good to understand, but not something that's necessarily worthy of nitpicking.

是的，这是本季度的显著好处。未来可能不会继续带来这么大的好处，但我们必须将其放在其他所有数字和它们季度季度的波动的背景下来理解。但即使我们选择不去考虑这一切，提醒一下，即使你把这项利润降至零，特斯拉仍然超过了预期。所以这确实是好的要理解，但不是值得挑剔的事情。

The final point that I'll make on this one, I know it's a lot to spend on one line item, but as I mentioned previously, this falls below operating income. So it does not affect operating income only net income. So if we go back to our conversation yesterday, I would say 95 plus percent of that was focused on things operating income and above. So it doesn't change really anything that I would have been excited about, which for me was that although operating income came in a little bit below my expectations, it was entirely driven by regulatory credits and then added to due to increases in operating expenses, which came from R&D, which has nothing to do with this quarter. I'm happy to take expenses there. An SGNA, which has a little bit to do with this quarter, but I would definitely wager that the increases there are more to benefit future quarters than having anything to do with this quarter in particular. So again, it's all about the context and I think we did a good job of considering that context yesterday when forming an opinion and after a day now to review, none of my opinions have changed.

最后一点，我要说的是，我知道这一项花费很大，但正如我之前提到的，这个数值低于经营收入。所以它只影响净收入而不影响经营收入。所以如果回顾昨天的对话，我会说其中95%以上的内容都是关于经营收入及以上的事项。它并没有改变我之前对某些事情的兴奋程度，对我来说，尽管经营收入略低于我的预期，但完全是由于监管凭证推动，而后又因经营费用的增加而加剧，这些费用来自研发领域，与本季度无关。我很乐意承担这些费用。而销售、一般及行政费用则与本季度有点关系，但我敢肯定，增加的费用更多地是为了未来几个季度的利益而不是特定地与本季度有关。所以，再次强调，一切要看背景，我认为昨天在形成观点时我们做得很好，而经过一天的回顾，我的观点没有发生任何改变。

Now of course, the other common criticism is the earnings call because oh, the stock was doing fine, then they had the earnings call, now the stock is not doing fine. Now, obviously there's macro influences driving that. There's time for people to digest the numbers and understand impacts like we just talked about. And yes, the earnings call. Oh, why didn't Elon Musk focus more on short term margins versus this long term vision for Tesla? Elon does this every quarter. I mean, is it helping the stock trade the next day? Maybe not. I don't care.

当然，另一个常见的批评是盈利电话会议，因为哦，股票情况本来还好，然后开了电话会议之后，股票的情况变差了。当然，这其中显然存在宏观因素的驱动。人们需要时间来消化数据并理解，就像我们刚刚讨论过的那样。还有，盈利电话会议。哦，为什么埃隆·马斯克没有更多关注短期利润率而是拥有了特斯拉的长期愿景呢？埃隆每个季度都这么做。我是说，这对股票第二天的交易有帮助吗？也许并不会。但我不在意。

I mean, I agree with the things that Elon says. I agree with how they're managing and operating the business. Could there be things that improved things a little bit more short term or could be phrased better? Certainly. But if you're an actual investor between the two things, optimizing for short term, getting great on earnings calls, making Wall Street happy, or building businesses like Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, Neural Link, etc. Which would you choose? I'm definitely taking the latter and I'm going to keep investing in that versus a management team that caters to Wall Street, which will maybe not inevitably, but probably contribute to killing a culture of innovation. So if you don't like the things that Elon says on the call, if you don't like how Tesla is operating the business, then you should consider selling the stock. But oftentimes what people don't like is how Wall Street is reacting. But that is noise. It washes out over time. Don't worry too much about the noise and certainly don't cater to it.

我的意思是，我同意Elon说的话。我同意他们如何管理和运作业务。短期内可以有一些改进的地方，或者可以措辞更好吗？当然可以。但如果你是真正的投资者，在优化短期利益、在财报电话会议上表现出色、让华尔街满意与建设像特斯拉、SpaceX、无聊公司、神经纽带等业务之间，你会选择哪一个？我绝对选择后者，并打算继续投资，而不是选择迎合华尔街的管理团队，这可能不会不可避免地，但很可能会破坏创新文化。所以，如果你不喜欢Elon在电话会议上说的话，如果你不喜欢特斯拉经营业务的方式，那你应该考虑抛售股票。但通常人们不喜欢的是华尔街的反应。但这只是噪音，随着时间的推移会消失。不要过多担心噪音，当然也不要迎合它。

Alright, we'll move on from earnings, but definitely let me know any other thoughts you have in the comments.

好的，我们会结束关于收益的讨论，但如果你有其他的想法，请一定在评论中告诉我。

Next up, a hot topic for many. We seem to have details on how FSD transferability will work this quarter. Keith Donberg on Twitter sharing what seems to be Tesla's terms and conditions for this program.

接下来是一个备受关注的热门话题。本季度我们似乎掌握了关于FSD转让的详细信息。Keith Donberg在Twitter上分享了似乎是特斯拉为这个项目设定的条款和条件。

The gist of how this will work is if you currently have FSD and if you take delivery of a new vehicle, so not a used vehicle, but a new vehicle before September 30th, 2023, you can then forfeit FSD on your current vehicle and transfer that to the new vehicle. You don't need to do a trade-in with Tesla to do that. So you could keep that current car, you could sell that current car, but it will no longer have FSD. This is non-reversible. It doesn't sound like it can be transferred from one person to another person. But in general, this seems like a pretty flexible allowance from Tesla. You could trade up from a Model 3 to a Model S or something like that, go from a hardware 3 vehicle to a hardware 4 vehicle. It's a pretty significant value, especially if you were already considering upgrading. So although the pool of FSD beta buyers relative to Tesla's annual production is pretty small when it is isolated, so specifically on a quarter like this, it does become a pretty decent demand lever, which is interesting because Tesla is going to have some downtime this quarter, so they should have fewer vehicles available. They have a strange time to pull that lever, but of course if there are going to be upgrades, which Tesla mentioned for the factories on the call, but could also mean for the products as well, obviously Model 3 Highland in question, then maybe doing it before that is the right time. So it'll be interesting to see, but I think this is going to cause a lot of people that maybe wouldn't have otherwise considered an upgrade at this point to say, hey, I'm going to take advantage of this, get a new car for maybe a similar payment that they're making today and transfer FSD over.

这项政策的要点是，如果你目前拥有全自动驾驶系统（FSD），并且在2023年9月30日之前提车一辆全新的车辆（不包括二手车），你就可以放弃将FSD安装在你当前的车辆上，而是将其转移到新车上。你不需要通过特斯拉进行交易来实现这一点。所以你可以保留你当前的车辆，也可以出售它，但它将不再具备FSD功能。这是不可逆转的。听起来好像它不能从一个人转移到另一个人身上。但总的来说，这似乎是特斯拉提供的一个相当灵活的优惠。你可以从Model 3升级到Model S等，从硬件3的车辆升级到硬件4的车辆。这是一个相当大的价值，特别是如果你已经考虑过升级的话。所以，尽管与特斯拉的年产量相比，FSD测试人群的数量在孤立状态下相对较小，尤其是在像这样的一个季度中，但这确实成为了一个相当可观的需求杠杆，这很有趣，因为特斯拉在本季度将会有一些停工时间，因此可供选择的车辆会更少。特斯拉选择在这个时候推出这个政策有点奇怪，但当然，如果有关于工厂的升级（像Call中提到的那样），也可能意味着产品的升级（显然《Model 3 Highland》是一个问题），那么在那之前这样做可能是正确的时机。所以这将是一个有趣的观察点，我认为这将引起很多人（也许在此之前并不打算升级的人）的关注，他们会说：“嘿，我要利用这个机会，以与现在的支付方式类似的付款购买一辆新车并转移到FSD上。”

Alright, last couple of items for today, we do have a report out of New York that Tesla is going to be opening a nearly 1 million square foot facility, which will act as a parts distribution center, probably service as well, in Newburg, New York. So we've had a number of stories like this throughout the US, throughout this year, which I think from a service perspective is exciting to see that Tesla is obviously continuing to invest pretty heavily in this, with a number of these types of facilities, which are really pretty big facilities to help improve service. This is going to be somewhere between 100 and 300 jobs, and it sounds like it may be open, wait for this here.

好的，今天最后几个项目，我们有一份来自纽约的报道，特斯拉将在纽约纽堡开设一个将近100万平方英尺的设施，将作为零部件配送中心，可能还有售后服务。所以今年在美国我们已经有了很多这样的故事，从服务的角度来看，这是令人兴奋的，特斯拉显然在大力投资，建设了许多这样的设施，这些设施真的是相当大的，有助于提升服务。这将创造大约100至300个工作岗位，听起来它可能会开放，等等看看。

And then lastly, as we had talked about a few days ago, Senator Elizabeth Warren had requested investigation by the SEC of Tesla relating to Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Now Twitter is making a request of Elizabeth Warren via the courts, with Twitter requesting a subpoena for records of Warren's communication regarding Twitter or Elon Musk between her office and the SEC, her office, and the Federal Trade Commission or FTC. Now I'm not sure on the status of the subpoena if this will be granted, or to what extent, but an interesting little turn of the tables, which might be a little bit insightful later on. So we'll keep an eye out for that.

最后，正如我们几天前讨论的那样，参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦要求美国证券交易委员会（SEC）调查特斯拉与埃隆·马斯克收购Twitter的相关事宜。现在Twitter通过法院向伊丽莎白·沃伦提出请求，要求传唤她办公室与SEC、联邦贸易委员会（FTC）之间关于Twitter或埃隆·马斯克的通信记录。我不确定传唤的情况，是否会被批准，以及在何种程度上，但这是一个有趣的转折，可能在以后有所启示。所以我们将继续关注。

But that will wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, July 21 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you. Thanks a lot.

但这次的节目就到这里。一如既往，感谢你的收听。请确保已订阅并开启通知。你还可以在Twitter上找到我，用户名是Tesla Podcast。我们明天将在7月21日，星期五为您播出下一期的特斯拉每日快报。谢谢你，非常感谢。