Live: Tesla Q2 Earnings Report Coverage & Analysis (Q2-23)
发布时间 2023-07-19 20:52:27 来源
摘要
➤ Join Rob Maurer for live coverage of the release of Tesla's Q2 2023 earnings report and shareholder letter
➤ Continue following along with the earnings call livestream: https://youtube.com/live/brFnJqIkwO0
0:00 Pre-earnings discussion
7:17 Earnings report & shareholder letter
23:58 Financials
36:22 Summary and questions
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
Executive producer Richard Del Maestro
Executive producer John Beans
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody Rob Manward here and today we are going to be reviewing Tesla's Q2 earnings report that's going to come out here in a few minutes after market close. If you are joining this later, of course you can look at the timestamps down below. That will jump you ahead to the point in time where earnings actually come out.
大家好，我是罗布·曼华德（Rob Manward）。今天我们将对特斯拉的第二季度收益报告进行回顾，该报告将在市场收盘后的几分钟内发布。如果您稍后加入，请查看下方的时间戳。这将带您直接转到收益实际公布的时段。
Before that obviously we still got a little bit of waiting to do so we're just going to kind of hang out for a bit and await market close and then the earnings report shortly thereafter. It could be, it looked like it was going to be a photo finish here, whether or not Tesla would finish positive for the day or not. But now it looks like we've got about a half a percent to make up in the last couple of minutes so we'll continue to watch the stock for the last couple of minutes before close. See if we get a green finish but otherwise we're just going to kind of be refreshing in IR page. I've got a link here that hopefully leads to the Q2 report as well. And then obviously we can check on Twitter and see, you know, sometimes the link gets posted there first before it actually shows up on my end. So we'll see. But happy to have you guys here. Happy to be looking forward to another earnings report.
在那之前，显然我们还需要等待一小段时间，所以我们只是稍微等待一下，等市场收盘后再等待财报。看起来可能会赛车决胜，特斯拉能否在今天收盘时取得正收益。但现在看来，在最后几分钟我们还需要补涨大约0.5%，所以我们会继续关注股票在收盘前的最后几分钟。看是否会以涨势收盘，否则我们将刷新公司的投资者关系页面。我这里有一个链接，希望能够直接导航到第二季度报告。然后显然我们可以去推特上查看，有时候链接会在我这里之前发布到推特上。所以我们拭目以待。很高兴有你们在这里，期待着另一份财报。
Let's flip over to Excel just very quickly and kind of run through some of the stuff that we talked about in the preview episode yesterday. Give me one second. I think I've got everything all set up correctly. A lot of other stuff going on today too. Busy time but looking forward to this.
让我们很快地切换到Excel，并快速浏览一下我们昨天在预览节目中谈到的一些内容。给我一秒钟。我想我已经把一切都正确设置好了。今天还有很多其他的事情要忙，但期待这个。
So when we do get the actual numbers, of course we'll read through the letter, look at everything that Tesla provides us first, then we'll go through the financials and update our summary sheet here with some of Tesla's actual financial results. You can compare that to my forecast, compare that to analyst consensus, see how my forecast comes in versus it and then also the consensus versus the actual. So that'll be what we're looking at in a few minutes. Yeah, we'll see how Tesla does.
所以，当我们得到实际数值时，当然我们会先阅读信件，仔细查看特斯拉提供的一切，然后我们将浏览财务报表，将特斯拉的实际财务结果更新到这里的总结表中。您可以将其与我的预测进行比较，与分析师共识进行比较，并观察我的预测与实际结果以及共识的差异。所以这将是我们几分钟后的重点关注。是的，我们将看看特斯拉的表现如何。
So a couple things that I'm keeping an eye on. Interesting, you know, what I'll be probably most interesting is average selling price. So I'm projecting that to decline by a couple thousand dollars, quarter over quarter. Last quarter was a steep drop, four thousand dollars, quarter over quarter. Hopefully we see some average costs of goods sold, decline as well. So we've got both of those factored in and then got a little calculator down here. If you remember the Q1 earnings report had a little bit of trouble with getting that calculated correctly right off the bat. So hopefully we've got everything that we need there to do that quickly once we get the results.
所以有几件事情我在关注。有趣的是，我认为最令人感兴趣的可能是平均售价。我预计季度内平均售价会下降几千美元。上一季度的下降幅度很大，四千美元，季度对比。希望平均销售成本也会下降一些。所以我们将这两个因素都考虑进去，然后这里有一个小计算器。如果你还记得第一季度的财报有些问题，一开始计算得不准确。所以希望我们在得到结果后能迅速做出计算所需的一切。
Thank you, Winston. Wow. That's a Tesla share. Perfect. I really appreciate that and I will put it directly there as you as you intend. You have my you have my promise on that one. So Winston always very supportive. Really appreciate that.
谢谢你，温斯顿。哇，这是特斯拉的股份。太完美了！我真的很感谢，我会按照你的意愿直接放在那里。我向你保证会这样做。温斯顿一直非常支持我，我真的很感激。
Alright. So we've got about a minute left here. Let's flip back to the browser, see where things are at. I should have mentioned this earlier, but after we get the earnings report, we'll get the earnings call about an hour and a half after market close. There is a link down in the description to the earnings call where we'll watch it together or listen to it together. I'll take notes as Tesla is having the call and then stick around after and we'll do a little bit of a recap and some thoughts on on that after that call.
好的。所以我们在这里还有大约一分钟的时间。让我们切换回浏览器，看一下进展如何。我应该早点提到这一点，但是在我们获得盈利报告之后，市场关闭后大约一个半小时，我们将会得到盈利电话。在描述中有一个链接，我们将一起观看或一起听盈利电话。当特斯拉进行电话的时候，我会记笔记，然后在电话结束后继续留下来，我们会对那个电话进行一点点的总结和想法。
Alright. So we'll flip back here. And unfortunately, head in the other way, but obviously it doesn't mean too much in terms of where things close right now as most of the most of the action for today is going to come from the earnings report. And it looks like we did indeed closing the red. So it's a down 7 tenths of a percent on the day closing at 291 26 NASDAQ up 0.03%. So barely in the green, the Tesla not quite there. So we'll see if the weight begins. Hopefully not too long. Tesla's been getting us out within five minutes or so of market close. So we'll just kind of hang out until then and F five or command R depending on your choice of computer. And we'll just see if we get anything posted here soon. If you guys have any questions while we're waiting, feel free to throw those in the chat right now.
好的。所以我们会再回顾一下。不幸的是，走势朝相反的方向，但显然这对目前股市的收盘位置并没有太大的意义，因为今天的大部分行动将来自收益报告。看起来我们确实以红盘收盘。所以当天下跌了百分之0.7，收于291.26点，纳斯达克指数上涨了0.03%。因此，特斯拉没有完全赶上。所以我们将看看这是否开始影响市场。希望不要太久。特斯拉市场收盘之后大约五分钟左右就会发布数据，所以我们将在那之前稍微等待一下，或者根据您的电脑选择按下F5或Command+R键进行刷新。如果在等待期间你们有任何问题，请随时在聊天窗口中提出。
And I'll keep an eye on that. This is the second best part of the day, the second most action filled part of the day trailing only when we flip to Excel. And I've you guys can watch me fill out numbers on a spreadsheet. I don't know which one is more exciting. The refreshing or the number filling, but both peak entertainment points during the day today. So it doesn't look like anything yet.
我会继续密切关注这个。这是一天中第二好的部分，也是一天中最充满活力的部分，仅次于我们切换到Excel时。你们可以看着我在电子表格上填写数字。我不知道哪个更令人兴奋，是刷新还是填写数字，但两者都是今天白天的娱乐高潮。所以目前还没有什么变化。
Usually our first indication ends up being the sort of algorithm reactions to whatever the EPS number or maybe the revenue number is depending on how those those algorithms are set up. So sometimes we see something jump in the after hour session one way or the other. And that kind of indicates that the report might be out. But we have seen little, I guess, head fakes of that before where it jumps and then thurnings are not actually out. So I don't know what kind of games are going on there, but a couple minutes after close doesn't look like we've got anything yet.
通常，我们的第一个指示往往取决于算法对EPS数字或者收入数字的反应方式，这取决于这些算法的设置。因此，有时我们会在盘后交易中看到某种反应，这表明报告可能已经发布。但我们之前有过几次虚张声势的经历，也就是说它会跳动，但实际上报告并没有出来。所以我不知道那里是不是有什么花招，但在收盘后的几分钟内似乎还没有任何结果。
Avatrode LLC, thank you. Really appreciate that. Thank you for your sustained excellence in Tesla commentary. Very kind of words. Thank you. I do apologize for the sirens guys. I know that it's not ideal. It's just part of living in a city, unfortunately.
Avatrode LLC，感谢您。非常感激。感谢您对特斯拉评论的持续优秀。非常友善的话语。谢谢。对于警报声我向大家道歉。我知道这不是理想的情况，但不幸的是这是城市生活的一部分。
Very limited control on that. Alright, I'm keeping an eye on comments here. We'll see. You know, hopefully everyone kind of trolls me every quarter and says things are released when they're not released. But I do appreciate any help when you guys see it. Sometimes that happens first. So I don't necessarily want to flip back to Excel, but if anyone did not see my preview episode, I don't really like focusing on earnings per share, but since that's whatever it looks at analysts are expecting on average 80 cents non gap earnings per share, which would be slightly down quarter over quarter. I'm expecting 83 cents again, very slightly down quarter over quarter. But otherwise our revenue numbers were pretty similar. Operating expense forecast or pretty similar. So I'm relatively close to consensus, but we'll see.
在这方面的控制非常有限。好的，我会在评论区留意一下。我们会看到的。你知道，希望每个季度大家都像在我身上捉弄一样，说东西发布了其实并没有发布。但是当你们看到有关的任何帮助时，我真的很感激。有时候这样的事情会先发生。所以我不一定想要回到Excel，但是如果有人没有看到我的预告片，我并不是特别关注每股收益，但由于分析师平均预计的每股收益为80美分，相比上个季度略有下降。我预计每股收益为83美分，相比上个季度略微下降。但其他方面，我们的收入数据相当相似。运营费用预测也相当相似。所以我跟市场共识相对接近，但我们还是要拭目以待。
I know there's some people on Twitter with higher forecasts and if Tesla has a good average selling price, depending on how heavy inventory discounts came in that will probably shape this quarter the most. And of course, Tesla's progress on cost of goods sold. All right, let's see how many people we got. We got watching 5,400. All right. I don't really know how that compares to prior quarters, but it's always nice to see everyone here. Super chat from K. Appreciate that. All right, still hovering just around even after hours. There we go. It looks like it's out.
我知道Twitter上有一些人对特斯拉的预测更高一些，如果特斯拉有一个良好的平均售价，那么取决于库存折扣的力度，这很可能会对本季度产生最大的影响。当然，特斯拉的成本也会对这一季度产生影响。好的，让我们看看有多少人在观看。我们有5,400人观看。好的。我不太清楚与之前的季度相比如何，但能看到大家都在这里总是很好。感谢K的超级聊天支持。好的，在盘后交易中，股价仍然在持平附近徘徊。看起来已经发布出来了。
All right, Q2 2023 update. We're going to go through this as you know, as Tesla states and we'll see, we'll see what happens. I do just want to quickly glance at the EPS number. 91 cents. All right. So excellent. Looks like that is a beat on expectations from the bottom line perspective. I'm just going to really quickly flip back to the stock, see how that's reacting, still flat, weird. Okay. But here we go. Let's read through the letter.
好的，Q2 2023更新。我们将按照特斯拉官方公告的方式进行，我们会看看会发生什么。我只是想快速看一下每股收益（EPS）的数字。91美分。好的。看起来从盈利角度来看，超过了预期。我现在要迅速翻回股票，看看市场的反应，仍然很平稳，有点奇怪。好了，现在我们开始读这封信。
Looks like operating margin a little bit lower than expected. So looks like maybe there's some things driving the earnings up that maybe we didn't have in our forecast. But let's read through the summary. So Q2 was a record quarter on many levels. Our best ever production and deliveries revenue approaching $25 billion in a single quarter. We're excited that we were able to achieve such results given the macroeconomic environment that we are currently in. Margin remained healthy at approximately 10% even with price reductions in Q1 and Q2. This reflects our ongoing cost reduction efforts, continued production ramp success in Berlin and Texas and the strong performance of our energy and services and others business, service and other business.
看起来运营利润率略低于预期。所以看起来可能有一些因素推动了收益增长，可能是我们在预测中没有考虑到的。但是让我们仔细阅读一下摘要。Q2是许多方面的最佳季度记录。我们有史以来最高的生产和交付量，单个季度的收入接近250亿美元。我们非常高兴能够在当前的宏观经济环境下取得这样的成绩。尽管在Q1和Q2降价，利润率仍保持健康，大约为10%。这反映了我们持续的成本削减努力，柏林和德克萨斯工厂的生产加速成功以及我们能源和服务以及其他业务的强劲表现。
Our commitments being at the forefront of AI development entered a new chapter with the start of production of dojo training computers. We are hopeful that our immense neural net training needs will be satisfied using our in-house designed dojo hardware, the better the neural net training capacity, the greater the opportunity for our autopilot team to iterate on new solutions. In conclusion, we're focusing on cost reduction, new product development that will enable future growth, investments in R&D, better vehicle financing options, continuous product improvement and generation of free cash flow. The challenges of these uncertain times are not over, but we believe that we have the right ingredients for the long term success of the business through a variety of high potential projects.
我们承诺在人工智能开发的前沿不断努力，现在我们迈入一个新的篇章——推出道场训练计算机的生产。我们对能够满足庞大的神经网络训练需求抱有期望，通过我们内部设计的道场硬件，神经网络训练能力越强，我们的自动驾驶团队就能更好地开发新的解决方案。总之，我们将集中精力于成本降低、新产品开发以促进未来增长、研发投资、更好的车辆融资选择、持续产品改进和现金流的产生。这个不确定时期的挑战尚未结束，但我们相信通过各种潜力巨大的项目，我们拥有实现长期业务成功的正确要素。
So just again, the context that we talked about yesterday, focusing on the long term, obviously the operating margin remains healthy, maybe slightly below where it was forecast to come in, maybe slightly below where Tesla would have expected it earlier this year, but still a healthy number, still providing cash that Tesla can invest in the business.
所以就再次强调昨天我们谈论的背景，着眼于长期发展，显然运营利润率保持健康，可能略低于预计，可能略低于特斯拉今年早些时候的预期，但仍然是一个健康的数字，仍为特斯拉提供现金以投资业务。
Looks like cash did increase by $700 million for cash flow of a billion dollars, operating cash flow of $3.1 billion. So all that cash, you know, that's after Tesla is already investing in R&D in SG&A scaling. Ahead of future growth and still cash falling to the bottom line to support for the developments in the future.
看起来现金流增加了7亿美元，达到了10亿美元的现金流，运营现金流为31亿美元。所以所有这笔现金，你知道，那是在特斯拉已经在研发和一般行政及销售费用扩展方面进行投资之后。为未来的增长提前做准备，并且现金仍然为未来的发展提供支持。
The start of production of Dojo. So Tesla had talked about this with, you know, showing that graph of where they expect Dojo capacity to go over the next couple of years. So for them to confirm this is very exciting and hopefully we'll hear more on that.
Dojo的生产开始了。所以特斯拉已经谈到过这个问题，并展示了他们预计未来几年Dojo产能增长的图表。因此，他们确认这一点非常令人兴奋，希望我们能听到更多相关的消息。
Then I see over here a little cyber truck mentioned. So cyber truck factory tooling on track, producing, release candidate builds, Model Y became the best selling vehicle globally in Q1. Alright, so we'll come back to the numbers again a little bit later and we'll just kind of look at those all at once.
然后我在这里看到提到了一辆小型的狂热卡车。所以狂热卡车工厂的装备工作正在顺利进行，正在生产发布候选版本，Model Y在第一季度成为全球最畅销的车型。好的，我们稍后会再次回顾这些数据，并一次性地查看它们。
Again, looks like a beat on the bottom line, gap growth margin. I'm not sure. I think there's probably a bigger jump in operating expenses. I know I'm covering some of that. Sorry, try to do my best to be aware of that. But from just these initial numbers, I'm feeling like we're seeing definitely a lower energy number than what I expected by a few hundred million dollars, a little bit higher services and others. I think automotive revenue probably outpaced my forecast, which could be good news for ASPs and then operating expenses increasing, you know, 300 million dollars or so, which I believe would have exceeded my forecast. I think I was at 19.25. So a couple hundred million dollars extra in operating expenses, which if that's the case and if that's coming from R&D, then this is actually, I think, a really strong result. But you know, I'll try to refrain from comment too much. I just get excited about it before we can look at that holistically.
再说一遍，从底线看起来好像有所打击，增长率有所缩小。我不确定。我觉得运营费用可能会有较大的增加。我知道我正在应付其中的一部分。很抱歉，尽我最大努力意识到这一点。但就仅有这些初步数据来看，我感觉到我们实际上看到的能源数字比我预期的要低几亿美元，服务和其他方面可能稍微高一些。我认为汽车营收可能超过了我的预测，这对平均售价可能是个好消息，然后运营费用增加了大约3亿美元，这个数字应该超过了我的预测。我记得我是说19.25。所以运营费用增加了几亿美元，如果是这样的话，如果这是因为研发而增加的，那实际上，我认为这是一个非常强劲的结果。但你知道的，我会尽量不发表太多评论。在我们能全面看待之前，我只是对此感到兴奋。
Alright, and then we talked about the free cash flow. So Tesla's sitting on $23 billion in cash. So let's just take a quick pause, see what the reaction is here. Stock market sleep, I guess. No reaction yet, which is probably a good result for a Tesla earnings report. I don't mind that.
好的，然后我们谈论了自由现金流。所以特斯拉现金储备为230亿美元。所以让我们暂时停下来，看看市场的反应。我猜股市没有什么动静。目前还没有反应，这对于特斯拉的财报可能是个好结果。我不介意这样。
Alright, so revenue grew 47% year to 24.9 billion dollars. So almost a 100 billion dollar annualized rate there. Growth and vehicle deliveries, helping drive that growth in other parts of the business reduced average selling price year over year excluding foreign exchange impact, negative foreign exchange impact of 0.6 billion dollars. But remember this is year over year. So I think, you know, when we compare sequentially, it's probably not a huge driver of fluctuation from a quarter over quarter perspective. We'll have to spend a little bit more time thinking about that though.
好的，所以收入在一年内增长了47%，达到249亿美元。因此，年化率几乎达到了1000亿美元。增长和车辆交付有助于推动业务其他部分的增长，减少了平均售价，除去外汇影响，年度外汇影响减少了0.6亿美元。但请记住，这是同比增长。所以我认为，从季度的角度来看，与上一季度相比，这可能不是一个很大的波动因素。我们需要花更多时间去考虑这个问题。
Profitability, operating income decreased slightly year over year to 2.4 billion resulting in a 9.6% operating margin. Year over year, operating income was primarily impacted by the following items. So reduced ASP due to mix in pricing, cost in production ramp of 4680 sales and other related charges. That's one that I focused us on yesterday. Release in operating expenses driven by Cybertruck, AI and other large projects. So that's probably what we talked about here where this is. Taking a big step forward, you can see these increases, you know, Tesla for the last four quarters in a row hovering around 1.7 1.8 billion dollars, now jumping up to 2.1. So it looks like some of that's Cybertruck expenses are starting to hit, you know, Tesla's income statement.
盈利能力和运营收入同比略有下降，降至24亿美元，导致运营利润率为9.6%。运营收入同比主要受以下因素影响：由于定价策略变化导致平均售价下降，产能扩展、4680电池等销售和其他相关费用。这就是昨天我所关注的一个事项。运营费用的增加主要是由于Cybertruck、人工智能和其他大型项目的推行。因此,这可能是我们在这里讨论的内容。可以看到，在过去四个季度，特斯拉的收入一直在1.7-1.8亿美元左右波动，现在跃升至2.1亿美元。因此，似乎是Cybertruck的费用开始对特斯拉的损益表产生影响。
Negative foreign exchange impact as we mentioned. Set a bit by growth in vehicle deliveries despite margin headwind from under utilization of new factories for London, Texas. Lower cost per vehicle, which includes lower raw materials, cost and IRA credits and no surprise there. Again, the IRA credit that does lower cost of goods sold. Tesla gets battery credits there. So outside of the $7,500 credit, that's also still benefiting directly the income statement. And then gross profit growth and energy business as well as services and other other income below operating income line was positively impacted by foreign exchange movements on certain intercompany balances.
负面的外汇影响就像我们之前提到的那样。尽管伦敦和德克萨斯新工厂的利用率不佳给利润率带来了不利影响，但车辆交付量的增长有所补充。每辆车的成本降低，包括低原材料成本和IRA抵免，这一点并不令人意外。再次强调，IRA抵免有助于降低销售成本。特斯拉在电池抵免方面也有所收益。所以除了7500美元的抵免金额，其他直接受益于收入报表。此外，能源业务以及服务和其他收入等毛利增长也在运营利润线以下的某些内部公司结算的外汇波动的积极影响下得到了提升。
All right. Cash we talked about. So a few cash flow of a billion dollars, increasing cash by 0.7 billion. So maybe Tesla did some debt repayments there.
好的。现在我们来谈谈现金。所以现金流入约为10亿美元，现金增加了0.7亿美元。所以可能特斯拉在那方面做了一些债务偿还。
Production matches what the P&D report said. Deliveries the same lease accounting. We'll come back to that because that'll help us with ASPs.
生产与P&D报告所说的相符。交付相同的租赁会计。关于这一点我们将会再回来，因为这将有助于我们的ASP（平均销售价格）。
Global days of inventory up to 16. So no surprise on that. That's what we had calculated after the P&D report.
全球库存达到16天。所以这一点不足为奇。这是在产品销售与交付报告之后我们计算得出的结果。
Solar deployed 66. So unfortunate result there. You can see down 38% year over year. Just not a business that Tesla has really been able to grow for quite some time. So hopefully they'll give some commentary on solar, but it's such a small piece now at this point.
太阳能部门部署了66个项目。真是个不幸的结果。你可以看到，与去年相比，销量下降了38%。对于特斯拉来说，太阳能业务在相当长的一段时间内都无法实现增长。希望他们能对太阳能部门进行一些评论，但目前来说，这只是一个非常小的部分了。
And then storage deployed. So a little bit of a client quarter over quarter. Remember this is lumpy. It's volatile because it depends on when projects are recognized. So Tesla could complete a bunch of projects in this quarter. They're still maybe producing and delivering more in the second quarter. But if those projects aren't flipped on, then it's going to not reflect. So my fingers would be crossed that we'd see a big jump in Q3 on that number. But obviously over the last two quarters, Tesla doing over 7 gigawatt hours combined, which is really exciting locations. So continued to increase about 25% year over year for locations and service. And then superchargers and supercharger connectors, both increasing at 33% year over year, which always fun to see.
然后存储部署。因此，客户在季度之间会有一些波动。请记住这是不稳定的，因为它取决于项目何时被确认。所以特斯拉可能在这个季度完成了一些项目，而在第二个季度可能还在生产和交付更多项目。但如果这些项目没有启动，那么这个数据就不会体现出来。所以我希望在第三季度能看到这个数字有一个很大的跃升。但在过去的两个季度里，特斯拉的累计产量已经超过了7千兆瓦小时，这些地点真的令人兴奋。所以商业和服务地点每年持续增加约25％。超级充电器和超级充电器连接器每年增长33％，这总是令人愉快的看到。
All right. So this chart or this table, I was curious to see what they'd say for Cybertruck. So they do still say tooling. So Tesla not considering Cybertruck yet in production. I'll have to go back and update my title on the YouTube video for that. Not quite in official production. Still release candidate versions that Tesla's working on right now. But obviously they're getting quite close and I'd imagine there's probably some comments in here on that.
好的。所以这份表格或这个表格，我很好奇想知道他们对Cybertruck的说法。所以他们仍然表示需要工具。因此，特斯拉目前并未考虑在生产中生产Cybertruck。我需要回去更新我在YouTube视频上的标题。目前还没有正式生产。特斯拉正在进行发布候选版本。但显然他们已经非常接近了，我想这里可能有一些相关的评论。
So in Q2, we produced a record number of vehicles thanks to ongoing ramps of our new factories, as well as strong performance in Shanghai and Fremont. We remain committed to smoothing deliveries throughout the quarter by reducing the percentage of vehicles delivered in the third month. So unwinding the wave, vehicles in transit, test drive and display vehicles account for a substantive majority of our total days of supply.
在第二季度，由于新工厂的持续扩建以及上海和弗里蒙特工厂的强劲表现，我们生产了创纪录数量的汽车。我们致力于通过减少第三个月交付的车辆比例来平稳交付整个季度。因此，解决交付潮、在途车辆、试乘试驾车辆和展示车辆是我们总供应天数的绝大多数。
In the US, at Texas, in addition to the continued success of the Model Y ramp, we are also working on equipment installation for Cybertruck production, which remains on track for initial deliveries this year. Doesn't say this quarter, but this year. We'll see on the call on that.
在美国的德克萨斯州，除了Model Y生产持续取得成功之外，我们还在进行Cybertruck生产设备的安装工作，目前仍按计划计划在今年初进行交付。并没有具体说这个季度，而是今年内。我们在电话会议上将进一步了解这个情况。
We have made notable progress on yield improvement for our 4680 production lines. We continue building capacity for cathode production and lithium refining in the US.
我们在我们的4680生产线的产量改进方面取得了显著进展。我们继续在美国增加正极材料和锂精炼的生产能力。
For Shanghai, Shanghai has been successfully running near full capacity for several months. We do not expect a meaningful increase in weekly production run rate. Shanghai remains our main export hub. So Tesla basically says they're going to stay around that 240,000 or so per quarter from Shanghai, or at least not increase beyond that significantly at this point.
对于上海市来说，几个月来，上海一直成功地以接近满产能的状态运行。我们不预计每周生产率会有显著增加。上海仍然是我们的主要出口中心。因此，特斯拉基本上表示他们将继续维持每季度从上海出口约24万辆左右的产量，或者至少在这一点上不会有显著增加。
Berlin, our Gigafactory in Germany, produced standard range Model Y vehicles in Q2 for the first time, building off momentum from a success in Q1. Model Y was the best selling vehicle of any kind in Europe year to date based on the latest available data as of May. So market share, Tesla continuing to climb the ladder here in all regions after maybe a little bit of stalling out there in late in 2022. Now price cuts, Tesla starting to continue to increase. And some of that probably driven by COVID shutdowns too.
我们位于德国的柏林超级工厂在第二季度首次生产了标准续航版Model Y车型，积极推动了第一季度的成功势头。根据截至五月最新可获得的数据，Model Y是截至目前为止欧洲市场上各类车辆销量最好的车型。因此，在各个地区，特斯拉的市场份额仍在不断攀升，尽管在2022年末可能稍有停滞。现在，特斯拉的价格也开始继续降低，其中一部分原因可能是受到COVID疫情停工的影响。
All right. Technology, AI and software, AI software and hardware. Four main technology pillars are needed to solve vehicle autonomy at scale, extremely large real world data set, neural net training, vehicle hardware and vehicle software. We're developing each of these pillars in house. This month we are taking a step towards faster and cheaper neural net training with the start of production of our dojo training computer. And then of course we get the nice cumulative FSD beta miles driven. So looks like Tesla has crossed over 300 million miles driven on FSD beta as of this quarter. This chart we already talked about, so we went pretty in depth on that. But go back and watch that dojo video if you want to see a little bit more on their progress there.
好的。技术，人工智能和软件，人工智能软件和硬件。要解决大规模车辆自主性问题，需要四个主要技术支柱：极大的现实世界数据集、神经网络训练、车辆硬件和车辆软件。我们正在内部开发这些支柱。本月，我们将开始生产我们的道场训练计算机，以实现更快、更便宜的神经网络训练。当然，我们还有累积的完全自动驾驶测试版本里程。截至本季度，特斯拉已经超过3亿英里的完全自动驾驶测试版本里程。我们已经详细讨论过这张图表，所以如果你想更多地了解他们的进展，请回头观看那个道场视频。
And then for other software, Tesla is saying for customers getting a Model 3 or Y for the first time, we launched get to know your Tesla experience where users can adjust settings in the vehicle to help customers discover ongoing improvements, now highlight features directly in the UI, encourage users to try features that may have missed and add ability to search control. So trying to make things a little bit easier for new people to the vehicles, which I think is great.
然后对于其他软件，特斯拉宣布针对首次购买Model 3或Y的客户推出“了解您的特斯拉”体验，用户可以在车辆中调整设置，帮助客户发现持续的改进，现在还可以在用户界面中直接突出显示特色功能，鼓励用户尝试可能错过的功能，并增加了搜索控制的功能。因此，我们致力于让新用户更容易上手这些车辆，我认为这是很棒的。
Battery and powertrain manufacturing, we are now testing Cybertruck vehicles around the world for final certification and validation. This might be the most unique vehicle product in decades, with that comes trialing and testing new technologies, i.e. Please be patient.
电池和动力系统制造，我们正在全球范围内对Cybertruck车辆进行最终认证和验证测试。这可能是数十年来最独特的车辆产品，随之而来的是对新技术的试验和测试，所以请耐心等待。
As far as we know, Cybertruck will be the first sub-19 foot truck fitting into a garage that has both four doors and a six plus foot bed. Both technologically and architecturally, this vehicle will break a lot of boundaries, very much in line with how we think about vehicle engineering and manufacturing. So lots to get excited about there for Cybertruck.
据我们所知，Cybertruck将是第一辆适合停入车库的低于19英尺的卡车，它不仅拥有四个车门，还有一个超过六英尺的货箱。无论从技术上还是从建筑上来看，这辆车将打破许多界限，非常符合我们对车辆工程和制造的思考方式。因此，对于Cybertruck来说，有很多令人兴奋的地方。
Alright, energy storage deployments increased 222% year over year to 3.7 gigawatt hours, another strong quarter, due to the ongoing ramp of the Lathrop factory, the ramp of this to 40 gigawatt hours. The ramp of this 40 gigawatt hour mega factory, the first of many, has been successful with still more room to reach full capacity, while energy storage deployment rate can be volatile due to project timing, production rate improved further sequentially in Q2. So exactly what I mentioned there earlier, volatile in terms of recognition, but production continuing to ramp.
好的，能源储存部署增加了222%，达到3.7千兆瓦时，这是又一个强劲的季度，这要归功于拉索普工厂的持续发展以及提升到40千兆瓦时的增长。这个40千兆瓦时的巨型工厂的发展进展顺利，是众多工厂中的第一个，目前仍有更大的空间来达到全产能。尽管能源储存部署率可能会因项目计时而波动，但在第二季度，生产率仍然有所提高。所以我之前的提到的波动主要指的是认可度方面，但生产仍在继续提升。
Solar deployments remain roughly flat sequentially at 66 megawatt hours declining year over year, predominantly due to a high interest rate environment that is causing postponement of solar purchasing industry wide. So that does kind of make sense. Still would like to see a little bit better of a result there, but it's understandable.
光伏部署在季度上基本保持不变，为每年的66兆瓦时，与去年同期相比有所下降，主要是由于高利率环境导致整个光伏行业推迟购买光伏设备。所以这种情况有一定道理。尽管希望能看到更好的结果，但这也可以理解。
Services and other business, the second quarter of 2023 has been the quarter of supercharging. A significant number of companies, including Ford, GM or Sadie's Nissan Polestar, Nissan today by the way, Polestar, Rivian, Volvo and Electrify America have announced the adoption of NACS, a charging standard developed by Tesla over a decade ago, further North American products. Opening our charging network in 2024 will enable both faster market conversion from combustion engine, combustion vehicles to EVs, as well as faster growth of our charging network through a larger addressable fleet.
服务和其他商业领域，2023年第二季度成为了推动势头的季度。包括福特、通用汽车、颂美尼桑极星、尼桑当然，颂美、Rivian、沃尔沃和电动美洲在内的许多公司宣布采用了NACS，这是特斯拉十多年前开发的充电标准，进一步拓展了北美产品。我们预计在2024年开放我们的充电网，这将促使市场迅速从内燃机车辆转向电动车，并通过庞大的可寻址车队实现充电网络的快速增长，使得转型更快速。
So services and other gross margin looks like pretty similar to last quarter, but still at a very nice rate relative to historicals at least.
目前为止，服务和其他毛利率与上个季度相比看起来相当相似，但相对于历史来说仍然保持着非常不错的速度。
And then for Outlook, we're planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with a 50% compound annual growth rate target. We began building, we began guiding to in early 2021, some years may grow faster, some slower. We expect to remain ahead in 2023 of the long term 50% kegger with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year. All right, so sort of reiterating, but reiterating toward the lower end of the official guidance of 1.8 million and then Elon's stretch guidance of maybe 2 million for the year.
然后对于Outlook，我们计划与50%的复合年增长率目标保持一致，尽快增加产量。我们开始着手2021年初建设，并在此之后进行了指导。有些年份增长可能更快，有些年份可能较慢。我们预计到2023年将超过长期50%的复合年增长率，达到约180万辆的年销量。好的，因此再次强调，但是偏向于官方指导的较低端，即约180万辆，而埃隆提到的可能达到200万辆的年销量则属于扩张指导。
Cash, ample cash. It's great. Furthermore, we will manage the business to maintain a strong balance sheet. So maybe a little bit of a nod to not doing a buyback at the moment.
现金，充足的现金。太好了。此外，我们将会管理业务，以保持强劲的资产负债表。因此，也许暂时不会考虑回购的可能性。
Profit continue to execute on innovations to reduce the cost of manufacturing and operations over time. We expect our hardware-related profit to be accompanied by an acceleration of AI software and fleet based profits. I don't think anything new there.
利润将继续推动创新，以降低制造和运营成本。我们预计我们与硬件相关的利润将伴随着AI软件和基于车队的利润的加速增长。我觉得这并没有什么新的东西。
And then Cybertruck remains on track to begin initial production later this year at K to factory Texas. In addition, we continue to make progress on our next generation platform. So no real update there on Cybertruck timeline, but let's soundtrack this year. All right, photos. I'm just going to take a quick drink of water here. That was a lot to read through because I know we've got some Cybertruck photos coming here.
然后，Cybertruck计划今年晚些时候在得克萨斯的K工厂开始初步生产。此外，我们在下一代平台上也取得了进展。所以关于Cybertruck的时间表没有实质性的更新，但是让我们对今年的进展有所期待。好了，接下来是照片。我先喝口水，刚刚读了很多内容，因为我知道我们会有一些Cybertruck的照片。
There we go. Cybertruck testing. Cybertruck built to do real work. You can see the wiper there. The bottom of the wiper working a little bit better. Production line. Tesla covering it like we haven't seen photos of that leak yet. Production line again. Not sure why it's covered in that one and not this one. And the tweeted photo that we had previously seen, thank you for that super chat. Appreciate that from invest answers.
我们开始吧。进行Cybertruck测试。Cybertruck的设计目的是真实的工作。你可以看到那儿的雨刷器。雨刷器的底部工作得更好一些。生产线。特斯拉对此进行了遮盖，似乎我们还没有看到泄露的照片。再来是生产线。不确定为什么这个被遮盖了，而那个没有。还有之前我们看到的那张推文照片，感谢投资答案的超级聊天。非常感谢。
And then our key metrics quarterly. So I think we'll, I'll show these charts, but I do want to go and put those in our spreadsheet. But I mean, you can see, so I mean, this is, these are margin and year over year growth numbers. So most of the time we like to see Tesla charts like this, but are really nice accumulations of progress in the business. These rate charts, they're never going to look exactly like that. You can't continue to increase your revenue growth rate as you scale that significantly. That would be pretty impossible. Operating margin, obviously we've talked a lot about that. Hopefully that rebounds after Tesla, you know, makes progress on, on gigatexas, 4680s and Berlin.
然后我们的关键指标是按季度报告的。因此，我认为我们会展示这些图表，但我希望将它们放入我们的电子表格中。但是，你可以看到，这些是边际和同比增长数字。大部分时间，我们喜欢看到特斯拉的图表是业务进展的集大成。而这些比率图表永远不会完全像那样。随着规模的显著扩大，你不可能持续增加收入增长率。那将是相当不可能的。营业利润率，显然我们已经讨论了很多。希望在特斯拉在吉格泰克斯、4680电池和柏林取得进展之后，营业利润率会反弹。
All right, so the rest of the things there, financials, let's hop back into Excel. Let's just see what kind of what the stocks doing right now.
好的，那么剩下的那些东西，财务数据，我们回到Excel中来看一下。我们看看股票现在的情况怎样。
All right, up percent. So definitely, definitely good with that. Another super chat there. Thank you. I'm a little bit behind on the chat here, but Greg, awesome. That's nice to see. Greg and John, thank you for those. Appreciate that. I'm sure I've missed some others.
好的，增长百分之（未给具体数字）。所以肯定地，肯定地满意。这里还有一条超级聊天。谢谢。我在聊天上有一点落后，但Greg，太棒了。很高兴见到你们Greg和John，谢谢你们。非常感谢。我相信我可能错过了其他一些人的信息。
Alright, let's hop to Excel. One second, and we'll fill in some numbers, the potentially most exciting part of the episode. All right, so I'm just going to throw that in there and see if I remember that correctly. It's probably slightly off. So although you'll see Excel, what I'm doing is flipping back to the browser and just going through and finding the numbers that I need. And we'll update those.
好的，让我们来用Excel做一下。等一下，我们要填入一些数字，可能是这集中最令人兴奋的部分。好了，我就随便写点进去，看看我是否记得正确。可能有点差错。所以虽然你会看到Excel，但我实际上是在回到浏览器，查找并更新我所需的数字。
Alright. Kudos to the analysts on the Energy forecast. Only off by 1%. I was off by 28%, a little bit higher. Energy generation, so that I know was 66. So we were both quite high on that.
好的。对于能源预测，向分析师致以赞赏。只有1%的误差。我的误差高了28%，稍微偏高一点。能源产量，我知道是66。所以我们对此都预测得相当高。
All right, automotive sales. So this will be one of the most interesting buckets, and then we'll count ASP as well. I won't keep you guys waiting too long on that. So total automotive revenue was 21.268. So I was 1% low, analysts 1% low, which is good news for ASPs or average selling prices.
好的，我们来谈谈汽车销售。这将是其中一个最有趣的领域，我们将一同计算平均销售价格。我不会让大家等太久。总的汽车收入为21,268万美元。我比预期低了1%，分析师也低了1%，这对于平均销售价格来说是好消息。
But let's see, I guess we need to figure out regulatory credits. Did that get removed? Nah, I thought that last time too. Let's just see. Okay, it's in here. Oh, 282. Awesome. That's great. The one time I start to get less conservative with this, of course, it drops. So I was 42% too high there. I expected around 400 million. That was about the average over the last 12 months. But bigger number, last quarter, probably not too surprising to see a little bit of a drop this quarter then to 282. But what that means, as we know, is that the underlying business, the non-regulatory credit portion of the business, which really is more important going forward, what that means is that that business was healthier leading to, or at least the average selling prices were healthier leading to higher revenues, which is very exciting. If we exclude this, I'm $112 million too high plus $272, $74 low on revenue. So between the two of those, that's almost a $400 million difference in automotive revenue, which obviously is going to be attributed to higher average selling prices. So the level of average selling price that Tesla is able to maintain quarter over quarter, a lot better than expected, a lot better than the drop that we saw from Q2.
但是让我们来看看，我想我们需要弄清楚监管积分。它被取消了吗？不，上次我也以为是这样。我们来看看吧。好的，它在这里。哦，282。真棒。我开始对此变得不那么保守，当然就下降了。所以我高了42%。我预计大约4亿左右，这是过去12个月的平均水平。但上一季度数字大一些，这一季度稍微下降一点也不奇怪。但这意味着，正如我们所知道的，基础业务，即非监管积分的业务，在未来更为重要。这意味着该业务更健康，或者至少平均售价更健康，从而导致更高的收入，这非常令人兴奋。如果我们排除这些，我的收入预测高了1.12亿，销售额预测低了2.72亿。因此，这两者之间在汽车业务收入上造成了将近4亿的差额，显然这归因于更高的平均售价。所以特斯拉能够维持的平均售价比预期要好得多，比我们在Q2看到的下降好得多。
All right. Energy sales, let's see where that ended up being 1509. So you could call that a disappointment. But again, it's just a matter of recognition, as Tesla said, that grew quarter or quarter. And then services and other is 2,150. So a huge jump, definitely offsetting the little bit there from energy below my forecast. We're $200 million, not entirely offsetting it, but $300 million high on energy, $200 million low on services. So overall, 1% to low on revenue.
好的。能源销售，让我们看一下最终达到了1509。所以可以说这是令人失望的。但是再次强调，这只是一个认可的问题，正如特斯拉所说，它从一季度到另一季度增长了。然后服务和其他项目是2150。所以有了巨大的增长，明显抵消了能源销售低于我的预测。能源销售多了2亿美元，服务销售少了2亿美元。所以总体上来说，收入低了1%。
All right. We'll save the ASP for a second. We'll come back to that. Let's get down to automotive profit. So that's going to be minus 16, 841. That minus 16, 841. Of which regulatory credits, that's going to be 282. Energy profit.
好的。我们暂时不谈ASP。我们会回头再讲。现在让我们来谈谈汽车利润。所以汽车利润将是负16,841。其中规定的信用额度是282美元。能源利润。
See how that came in. 1231, so a little bit of a decline, month over month. And of course, I mean quarter over quarter. Sorry, energy costs. I'm getting tripped up here, guys. Energy costs came down slightly quarter over quarter.
看看这是怎么回事。1231，所以有一点点下降，从一个月到另一个月。当然，我是指一个季度到另一个季度。对不起，能源成本。这里有点困扰，伙计们。能源成本在一个季度内略微下降。
Let's see. Yeah, so 1231 were the costs of energy. Again, very exciting stuff here. All right. I think energy had an 18% margin. We're going to have to go back and confirm that. But if that's the case, that's awesome. And then services and other 1984 costs. which would be this. When is that? We did it wrong because that's the wrong box. All right. Make sure this gross profit number ties correctly. Seems to not. So I think I did something wrong here. Bear with me. Sometimes I have a little bit better of a setup than this. I'm definitely missing something here.
让我看看。嗯，所以1231 是能源的成本。再次，非常令人兴奋的内容。好的。我认为能源有18%的利润率。我们需要回去确认一下。但如果是这样的话，那太棒了。然后服务和其他1984年的成本。就是这个。那是什么时候？我们搞错了，因为这个是错误的框。好的。确保这个毛利数字正确。似乎不对。所以我觉得我在这里做错了什么。请稍等。有时候我有一个比这个好一点的设置。我肯定是漏掉了什么。
Alright. So automotive sales to a lot of revenues, 2168, 1509, 2150. OK, that's all right. So I don't have the leasing cogs in there. That's what it was. 17, 179, classic. It's how they get you every time, that leasing stuff.
好的。所以汽车销售额很高，2168、1509、2150。好的，没问题。所以我没有包括租赁方面的成本。就是这样。17、179，经典。租赁费用总是让人无法拒绝。
All right. So this is now correct, which means that energy profit is also correct, which means that Tesla delivered an 18% energy gross margin. That's super exciting. Even with slightly lower revenue, huge, huge improvement in energy gross margins, quarter over quarter, up 720 basis points year over year. So that's awesome. Very exciting news on that front, because as we always talk about what we're trying to learn here is context for things going forward. And this means Tesla is able to actually sell energy at the margin that's higher than the total company gross margin, higher than automotive gross margin X credits. So now a more profitable business, at least for this specific quarter than the auto side, which is pretty insane. And as we talked about, hopefully a lot of this from an operational perspective is not like gravy. But the leverage that Tesla gets from the scale of the auto business is also supporting the energy business, which means that an 18% gross margin business by itself might not be that awesome. But when you can stack a couple of sizable 18% gross margin businesses on the same cost infrastructure, it really drives operating leverage, which is exciting to see. All right. So I'm pumped about that. That might be the biggest takeaway so far alongside the ASP stuff.
好的，现在一切都正确了，这意味着能源利润也正确，这意味着特斯拉实现了18%的能源毛利润。这真是令人兴奋。尽管收入稍微下降，但能源毛利润却有巨大的改善，季度同比增长了720个基点。这太棒了。这是非常令人兴奋的消息，因为我们一直在谈论的是我们想要了解未来发展的背景。这意味着特斯拉能够以比整体公司毛利率更高的边际销售能源，甚至高于汽车毛利率（不含信用）。所以现在至少在这个特定季度，能源业务比汽车业务更具盈利能力，这真的太疯狂了。正如我们所讨论的，希望这一切从运营角度来看并不只是胶水效应。特斯拉从汽车业务规模上获得的杠杆作用也在支持能源业务，这意味着一个单独的18%毛利润业务可能并不那么出色。但是当你能够在相同的成本基础设施上积累一些规模可观的18%毛利润业务时，它真的会驱动经营杠杆效应，这让人兴奋。好吧，所以我对此感到兴奋。这可能是迄今为止最重要的收获，与平均售价相关的东西一起。
All right. So R&D, let's go back here. And yeah, if you guys can just spotlight me and throw a dollar super chat from getting something super wrong. But R&D, 943. So there we go. That's the big increase. So $130 million more than I expected, which is driving the operating gross margins down. SG&A. A couple of super chats, thank you with no issues pointed out. Yeah, so that's good. OK. SG&A. That's 1191. So a little bit higher there, which probably due to hiring for Cyberchuck and maybe some AI stuff, I would imagine. No other expenses. Just make sure. Yeah. So that's zero. So operating expenses, 2134, operating income, $23.99, which is what we got. All right. So 9.6%. All right. Yeah. So again, confirmation that this energy number is flowing through correctly and the sheet, which is great. Take off your cloth. No, thank you. All right. EBITDA. Let's see where that came in at. Just at EBITDA, 4653, head of expectations. Great. That income non-GAP. 2703. Interesting. Oh, that's GAP. It's like that doesn't make a lot of sense. 9-YAP income 3148, stock-based compensation was 445. So it's a little bit low on that, but not too bad. No CEO comp. GAP net income then should be 2703. And then we've got our EPS here of 78 and 0.91.
好的。所以研发部门，我们回到这里。如果你们能把我放在聚光灯下，并且从我弄错了什么地方捐赠一美元，那就太好了。但是研发部门，943。所以这就是大幅度增长。比我预期多了1.3亿美元，这导致了营业毛利率下降。销售和一般管理费用。有几个捐赠，感谢你们没有指出任何问题。那就太好了。好的。销售和一般管理费用是1191。所以这里有一点高，可能是因为为Cyberchuck和一些人工智能方面的招聘。没有其他费用。只是确保。是的。所以营业费用是2134，营业收入是2399，就是我们得到的结果。所以9.6%。是的。所以再次确认这个能源数字在表格中正确流动，这很好。脱下你的衣服。不，谢谢。好的。看看EBITDA是在哪里。EBITDA是4653，超过预期。很棒。非GAAP收入2703。有趣。哦，那是GAAP。这听起来不太合理。9-YAP收入3148，股权补偿445。所以在这方面有一点低，但还好。没有CEO报酬。那么GAAP净收入应该是2703。然后我们在这里有我们的EPS是78和0.91。
All right. Let's just quickly calculate the trailing 12-month GAP EPS. So that's going to be 353. So right now, let's say we're at 295-ish and 353. So we're at an 83 times price-starnings ratio right now. Not bad. And then free cash flow. So we'll just put that in here like that. We'll get the right number. It's close. Jesse, thank you. Good to see you on here.
好的。让我们快速计算过去12个月的GAP EPS（每股收益）。所以那将是353。现在假设我们在295左右和353之间。所以我们当前的市盈率大约为83倍，还不错。然后是自由现金流。我们将把它放在这里，像这样。我们将得到正确的数字。Jesse，谢谢你。很高兴在这里见到你。
All right. Let's do ASP. Looking forward to seeing that. Well, how do the auto gross margins come in here? All right. So a little bit higher than I expected to 20 basis points. So pretty close, but a little bit better, which probably driven by the better ASP, which means costs are going to be a little bit higher than I expected most likely. But offset.
好的。让我们来做ASP（平均销售价格）。期待见到那个。嗯，自动汽车的毛利率怎么样？好的。所以比我预期的高了一点，达到了20个基点。所以非常接近，但稍微好一点，这可能是由于更好的ASP，这意味着成本很可能会比我预期的要高一点。但会有抵消的因素。
So we're going to need leasing. The amount of leasing was 567. Believe that's the revenue. And then cost of leasing was 338. And then deliveries. Thank you, Dan. Deliveries, we had 21,883. All right. So I think these should be correct then. Just make sure all the information's in there. And again, please spot check if I'm getting something wrong here. Mess this up on the last one. But I think we're right there. So my cost forecast, correct. And then the ASP came in 2% higher than I expected about $800, which means that quarter over quarter, ASP is declined by only $1,200. And again, there could be some foreign exchange impact, quarter over quarter. It really depends.
所以我们需要租赁。租赁金额为567。相信这是收入。然后租赁费用是338。然后是交货。谢谢，丹。交货量为21,883。好的。所以我认为这些应该是正确的了。只要确保所有的信息都在里面。而且，如果我这里弄错了，请再次检查。上次把它搞砸了。但是我认为我们在这方面是正确的。所以我的成本预测是正确的。然后，平均销售价格比我预期的高了2%，约为800美元，这意味着季度对季度销售价格下降了仅1200美元。而且，可能存在一些季度对季度的外汇影响，这取决于情况。
Joel, thank you. Says looking good. Appreciate that, Joel. Joel's been since, I think Joel was my first gold supporter in Patreon, which is insane, like six years ago. Anyway, $1,200 decline in ASP quarter over quarter. So maybe some foreign exchange impact on that. But again, I think that was probably pretty consistent with the last quarter in terms of how that affects the numbers here. So hopefully that's good news where Tesla can kind of, they've done a lot of this inventory discounting. They've done a lot of additional sort of promotions with the referral program. They lower prices, particularly in the US, very early in the quarter. And despite all those things, only dropping ASPs $1,200, while cost drops almost, I think, the same amount. Cost actually dropped more. So that's exciting, which should mean, well, it didn't increase the margins, quarter over quarter, but at least more of a cost decline than the average selling price decline is definitely positive. It compresses because the basis changed, but still good. So thank you, David.
乔尔，谢谢你。说了看起来不错。对此表示赞赏，乔尔。我想乔尔是我在Patreon上的第一个金牌支持者，这很疯狂，大概是六年前。无论如何，季度的ASP下降了1200美元。可能有一些外汇影响。但是再次说，我认为这与上一季度对数字的影响可能非常一致。希望这是好消息，特斯拉可以在这方面做得更好。他们降低了很多库存的价格。他们在推荐计划中做了很多额外的促销。他们在季度初期降低了价格，特别是在美国。尽管有所有这些事情，ASP仅下降了1200美元，而成本下降了几乎相同的金额，甚至更多。所以这是激动人心的，这意味着，虽然季度间利润率没有增长，但成本下降的幅度超过了平均售价的下降幅度，这肯定是积极的。虽然基数发生了变化，但仍然很不错。所以谢谢你，大卫。
All right, I think we got through the numbers here. I think that's everything. So overall, I would say really good quarter. I'm pretty happy with this. Obviously, the operating margin coming in a little bit lower, but we can probably just quickly even calculate this. If I'd maybe if I just paste this here, we might be able to get that number. Yeah, so if my operating expense forecast had been correct, then Tesla's operating margin would have beat my expectations. And the only reason that this is higher is because of some additional cost for things like Cybertruck and things like that, which is, and then this would have also increased on the bottom line. So definitely ahead of my expectations, which is really exciting. And again, this is with less regulatory credit revenue than I expected. So that's another $118 million there that is temporarily in my forecast, boosting my forecast, that isn't boosting Tesla's actual results here, which means that X credits, things are even better than what I thought. Obviously, the operating expenses are real, so you have to consider that. And that's going to probably go to a new level going forward. But it's still very exciting, I think, to see these numbers. And then obviously beating on the bottom line, both analyst and my expectations pretty significantly, analysts were 12% below. I was 9% below. Full self-driving in Seattle, awesome. Thank you. Really appreciate that. You guys are awesome today. Awesome every day, but particularly today.
好的，我认为我们已经通过这些数字了解清楚了。我认为这就是全部。所以总体来说，我认为这是一个非常好的季度。我对此感到非常满意。显然，营业边际稍微低了一点，但我们可能可以很快计算出这个数字。如果我把这个粘贴到这里，我们或许可以得到这个数字。是的，如果我的营业费用预测是正确的，那么特斯拉的营业边际将超过我的预期。之所以较高，只是因为一些额外的费用，比如Cybertruck等，这也会增加底线。所以综上所述，这超出了我的预期，这真的很令人兴奋。而且，这还是在预期之外的，因为比我预期的监管信用收入要少。这里暂时多出了1.18亿美元，提升了我的预测，但没有提升特斯拉的实际业绩，这意味着除了信用之外，情况比我想象的要好。显然，经营费用是真实存在的，所以你必须考虑到这一点。而且这可能会在今后达到一个新的水平。但是看到这些数字还是非常令人兴奋的。而且显然，在底线上打败了分析师和我的预期，分析师低了12%。而我低了9%。西雅图的全自动驾驶真是太棒了。谢谢你们。我非常感激。你们今天非常棒。当然，每天都很棒，但特别是今天。
All right, whoa. Dragonfly engineering. I really appreciate that. I will put that towards Tesla shares as well. Thank you guys, but that's awesome.
好的，哇。蜻蜓工程。我真的很感激。我也会将这些用于购买特斯拉股票。谢谢大家，太棒了。
All right, so we'll talk a little bit more about things here. I'll read through the chat. We've got a few minutes here before we're going to start setting up for the earnings call, which, again, there's going to be a link for that live stream in the description below. So hopefully you guys all follow me over there. We've got 11,000 people watching right now. That might be a record. It seems to be popping today for some reason, which is great.
好的，我们会在这里多讲一点事情。我会阅读聊天记录。在我们开始准备财报电话会议之前，我们还有几分钟的时间。另外，下方的描述中将提供直播链接。所以希望你们都能跟着我过去。现在有11,000人正在观看，可能是一个记录。不知为何今天好像比以往更受欢迎，这很好。
All right, so 11,000 people watching, we fumble around Excel, so fun. All right. I was trying to think if there's anything else in the numbers that I want to go through quickly. Again, let me know questions, comments. But yeah, I think these numbers are really solid. I want to let's flip back and see what the stocks doing. I was a little bit surprised that it wasn't doing better based on that's a pretty significant beat and a beat for the right reasons. That's why I said yesterday, just looking at people like to compare these bottom line numbers. Thank you, Douglas. These bottom line numbers to, oh, how did analysts do you want their forecast? How did retail people do on their forecast? It's really not a great gauge because I could have forecast $700 million of regulatory credits and ended up in the same spot, but it would have been a horrible forecast because everything else would have been way off.
好的，所以有11,000人观看，我们在Excel里胡乱搞，太有趣了。好的。我在努力思考是否还有其他数字需要快速浏览一下。再次，请告诉我问题和评论。但是，我认为这些数字非常可靠。让我们翻回去看看股票的情况。我有点惊讶，根据这个相当显著的超越和正确的原因，它的表现并不好。这就是为什么我昨天说，人们喜欢将这些最终结果的数据与分析师的预测、零售人员的预测进行比较，但这真的不是一个很好的判断指标，因为我本可以预测700万美元的监管凭证，并最终得到同样的结果，但那将是一个糟糕的预测，因为其他方面都将大大偏离。
So for this to be a beat and a beat for really good reasons, number one, less regulatory credits recognized, which just boosts margin. And obviously Tesla gets that money. It's all great, but it just is going to be a smaller percent of the business going forward. So the more of Tesla's results, the more of their earnings that are driven by non-regulatory type of items, the better. Obviously, there's still some IRA impact on the costs and things like that that are helping Tesla's numbers right now, too. And the consumer credit, that's huge for Tesla as well. But we kind of know those things going in. We don't know regulatory credits. So for it to be lower means that these fundamentally are stronger results. So that's very exciting.
为了达到一个节拍，以及一个有很好理由的节拍，首先是要减少认可的监管信用，这将增加利润空间。显然，特斯拉会得到这笔钱。这一切都很不错，但是未来这将只占其业务的较小比例。因此，特斯拉的结果和收益更多地受到非监管类项目的推动，那就更好了。显然，目前特斯拉的成本仍然受到一些IRA影响，帮助其实现业绩。对特斯拉来说，消费者信用也非常重要。但我们对这些事情有所了解。我们不知道监管信用。所以，如果这些信用较低，意味着这些业绩在基础上更加强劲。因此，这非常令人兴奋。
The other thing that's really exciting is the synergy margin, 18.4%. That's a huge step. This is pro. I would be shocked if this is not. I don't know how many quarters of data I have here. I don't think I have a ton in this one. But I've got more in my actual full model. But yeah, I would be shocked if this is not an all-time high energy gross margin for Tesla. So we'll see going forward. If that can be repeated on a previous earnings call, Elon said that they kind of hoped to get energy gross margin into the 20%, 25ish percent range by the end of this year. He said that was not a promise, but more of an aspiration, which this looks like Tesla very much could be on track for that type of a result.
另外一件令人兴奋的事情是协同效应边际为18.4%。这是一大进步。这是专业水平。如果不是的话，我会感到震惊。我不知道这里有多少个季度的数据。我觉得这个可能不多。但是我在我的实际全模型中有更多数据。但是，如果这不是特斯拉有史以来最高的能源毛利率，我会感到震惊。所以我们以后会看到。在之前的财报电话中，埃隆说他们希望能够在今年年底将能源毛利率提高到20%到25%的水平。他说这不是一个承诺，而是希望，而根据目前的情况，特斯拉非常可能能够实现这样的结果。
And then I would also probably point out that there's probably some IRA impact with these energy margins too, as Tesla's still getting those battery credits. Maybe a portion of those probably split with Panasonic a bit too. But Tesla's probably still benefiting in some way from those battery production credits on the energy side of business as well. So that's going to be helping that margin out, but still very exciting to see.
然后我可能也会指出，这些能源边际可能也受到一些IRA影响，因为特斯拉仍然获得那些电池积分。其中一部分可能也与松下分成。但特斯拉在能源业务方面可能仍然从这些电池生产积分中获益。所以这将有助于提高利润率，但仍然非常令人兴奋。
And then services and others as that, services and other as that increases, there as that gross margin increases, it's less of a drag on the overall business. Like last year, all this revenue coming in at 0%, that's going to pull, although the total gross margin was obviously very strong, that has a negative effect. And the negative effect diminishes over time. And we saw a pretty big jump in this quarter over quarter, which I don't think a lot of that's driven by supercharger revenue yet. But hopefully over time, this can become a nice healthy business for Tesla. Maybe they're probably not going to grow this to 20% gross margin business. But if this can be 10%, 15%, and grow with the rate that it has, that's a really strong, healthy business line for Tesla as well.
然后，就像服务和其他方面一样，随着服务和其他项目的增加，毛利率的增加会减少对整个业务的拖累。比如去年，所有这些收入以0%的利润率进入，这会对总体毛利率造成负面影响，虽然总体毛利率明显很强，但这对业务有负面影响。随着时间的推移，这种负面影响逐渐减小。在这个季度，我们看到了相对较大的环比增长，我认为其中很大一部分并不是由于超级充电站的收入驱动。但是希望随着时间的推移，这可以成为特斯拉一个不错的可持续发展的业务。也许他们可能不会将其发展为20%的毛利率业务，但如果这可以达到10%、15%，并以它目前的速度持续增长，那将是特斯拉一个非常强大、健康的业务线。
OK, let's see. Yeah, so someone mentioned that S and X helped. Carlo, awesome. Thank you. Appreciate that. Long time listener as well.
好的，让我看看。嗯，有人提到S和X有所帮助。Carlo，太棒了。谢谢你。非常感谢。我也是长期听众。
OK. So now I lost my train of thought on that. The, what was I saying? Oh, S and X, yeah. So this helped. S and X obviously helped this average selling price. But that's a part of my forecast, right? Like I already knew the delivery numbers. You can make a rough guess at the average selling price for those Model S and X. Maybe I was a little bit low on that. But should have pretty much fully captured the impact of the S and the X mix, which that increased 88% quarter over quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a quarter correctly. So for S and X, it's already factored in, which means that three and Y were better than I thought, which is nice to see.
好的，现在我对此的思路有些丢失了。我在说什么来着？哦，S和X，对。所以这对提升了平均销售价格起了帮助作用。但这是我预测的一部分，对吧？我已经知道交付数量了。你可以对S和X这些车型的平均销售价格做一个粗略的猜测。也许我对此有点低估了。但应该已经基本上完全考虑到了S和X车型的影响，这个比例季度盈利按季度的比例增长了88%。所以，对于S和X，这已经在因素之中了，这意味着3和Y的表现比我预期的要好，这很好看到。
Let's see. Operating margin, anything to say about that? So I think I commented on that a couple times. Let me get my view back here correctly how it was before. Yeah, so operating margin, I did discuss this earlier, but just again to touch on it quickly, I don't mind it being lower than my forecast because it being lower was driven by two things. One, regulatory credits coming in lower than I expected. Two, the increase in R&D and SG&A, which as Tesla noted in the shareholder letter, were primarily driven by legitimate growth funding activities with Cybertruck, with AI, with Dojo. So for that to be an increase is not something that I mind at all.
让我们看看。运营利润率，对此有什么要说的吗？我想我之前已经谈论过这个问题了。让我正确回想一下这个问题之前我的观点是怎样的。是的，所以运营利润率，我之前确实谈过，但再次简要说明一下，我不介意它低于我的预测，因为低于预测是由两个原因驱动的。一是监管信用低于我的预期。二是研发和销售总务的增加，正如特斯拉在股东信中指出的，这些增加主要是由于Cybertruck、人工智能和Dojo等合法增长资金活动引起的。所以对于这个增加，我一点儿都不介意。
I would take those increases every quarter, which means if you kind of strip those things out, that's on a sort of sustained basis where Tesla's business, where I thought Tesla's business would be, they would have even beat this more significantly. So Tesla bears or whatever would say I'm hand waving away at legitimate expenses and that's fine. I don't really care. It's my opinion that these are good expenses and for those to drive down the operating margin is not something that I mind at all. Now would I prefer a 17% operating margin like we had portions of time last year? I sure would, that would be awesome.
我会每个季度都接受这些增长，这意味着如果你排除这些因素，那就是以一种持续的方式，我认为特斯拉的业务应该达到的水平，他们甚至会更显著地击败这一点。因此，特斯拉的熊或者其他人可能会说我对合理开支视而不见，这也没关系。我并不在乎。我认为这些都是好的开支，对于这些开支导致运营利润率下降，我并没有意见。现在，我是否更希望像去年某些时候那样有一个17%的运营利润率？当然，那会很棒。
But again, there's interest rate impacts right now. I do think a lot of that's probably offset by the tax credit stuff, but as we talked about, Tesla's scaling a lot and that's gonna continue, but really they're trying to get to a new level for the business and that's gonna take time and it's gonna cost money and, you know, we're, again, Tesla right now, the Model 3 and the Model Y, their purpose is to get Tesla to the next generation vehicle and to full self-driving. Like that is the purpose of these vehicles and it's silly to say or it sounds silly to say because literally you're talking about the best selling car in the world, but that's how Tesla's thinking about it, right? These are the bridge to the next generation. So for them to be able to provide the funding for that and still grow the cash of the business, that's what we wanna see from Tesla and that's what we are seeing and we, with these numbers, seem to continue to be on track for that to be the case. And all the while, Tesla growing scale, growing market share, which is awesome.
但是现在又有利率的影响。我确实认为其中很多都可以通过税收减免来抵消，但正如我们所谈论的，特斯拉正在大规模扩张，并将继续扩张，但他们确实在努力将业务提升到一个新的水平，这需要时间和金钱。现在，特斯拉的Model 3和Model Y的目的是将特斯拉推向下一代汽车和完全自动驾驶。这就是这些车的目的，说出来可能显得愚蠢，因为它们实际上是全球最畅销的车型，但这是特斯拉的思考方式。这些车是通往下一代的桥梁。所以他们要能够为此提供资金并同时增加公司的现金流，这是我们希望从特斯拉看到的，而且事实上我们正在观察到这一点，并且看起来将继续保持这种情况。与此同时，特斯拉不断扩大规模，扩大市场份额，这真是太棒了。
So margin's all return, it's gonna take time, you know? Tesla's path here is not one of margin growth, but eventually it'll come and we've seen that before and it'll be back someday. All right, man, I really appreciate these super chats guys. That's really exciting.
利润率已经恢复，这需要时间，你明白吗？特斯拉在这里的道路不是利润率增长，但最终它会恢复，我们以前看到过这种情况，它总会回来的。好了，伙计们，我非常感激这些超级聊天。这真的很令人兴奋。
All right, I think we might wrap it up here. I'm just kinda scrolling through. Seeing what stuff we got. We got about 45 minutes from the call.
好的，我觉得我们可能要在这里结束了。我现在只是在浏览一下，看看我们得到了什么东西。我们从这通电话中得到了大约45分钟的内容。
All right, so Dan, good question here. Impact of that, 735, well, he put billion here about million dollar settlement, so that's the board that we had talked about a day or two ago, two days ago, I think. And I don't really know how that settlement is impacting things. I do wanna, that's a good point. That is a good point though, because let's hop back to the results here and let's just take a look at the share count. To see if maybe there's a decrease in the outstanding shares somewhere, which maybe could give us a hint at what's going on with that sort of a settlement. I doubt that's resolved yet, but my thinking would be that that would maybe reduce the outstanding share count.
好的，Dan，这里是个很好的问题。那就是735亿美元的解决方案，这个数目我们前两天讨论过，我不太清楚这个解决方案对情况有什么影响。我想，那是一个很好的问题。确实是个很好的问题，因为让我们回到这里的结果，看看股份数量。看看是否有减少的未流通股份，也许可以给我们一些关于这类解决方案的线索。我怀疑这个问题还没有解决，但我认为这可能会减少未流通股份的数量。
All right, so shares used in EPS calculation diluted. They did increase 10 million, or whatever that number ends up being quarter over quarter. So we're not seeing some huge deduction in an outstanding share count. So my guess is that that's not really impacting these numbers. I doubt Tesla would talk about that on the call. Maybe we can get some information on how that's gonna work a little bit later on. But yeah, it's a really good question. I'd be surprised if that's impacting these numbers though.
好的，所以在计算每股收益时考虑了稀释股份。他们季度比季度增加了1,000万股，或者不管那个数字最后是多少。所以我们没有看到股份总数大幅减少。所以我猜想这个并没有真正影响这些数字。我怀疑特斯拉在通话中会谈论这个。也许我们以后可以获得一些关于如何运作的信息。但是是的，这是一个很好的问题。不过，如果这个影响这些数字，我会感到惊讶。
Before we wrap it up, I will just, I don't do this often, but I'll just, I guess, solicit for a quick like. Appreciate those. Jack, thank you, appreciate that. Sustainable energy for tomorrow. Awesome, appreciate that. William, thank you.
在我们结束之前，我只是想向大家简单地提出一个请求，虽然我不经常这样做。我猜我只是想向大家征求一下快速的支持。非常感谢你们的支持，杰克，谢谢你，真的很感谢。关于可持续能源的未来，太棒了，非常感谢你们，威廉，谢谢你。
Tesla, what is your expectation for the earnings call? Yeah, it's a good question. Hopefully they talk about Cybertruck. I'm sure they'll talk about AI, about Dojo. We'll talk about ASPs and costs. Talk about the say questions, which, you know, not my favorite group of questions this time around. Hold my tongue on that one, but. I think it should be a good call. Like, I really think these results are pretty, pretty excellent. And I guess maybe expectations were high coming into the earnings report here, but yeah, I'm not sure, not really sure what else I'd be asking for. Maybe instead of saying Cybertruck starting this year, if they had said this quarter, that would have been exciting. If, you know, the average selling price and cost, difference between those two numbers was bigger, better profit, that would have been more exciting. But again, these are, you know, across the board, I think pretty in line with my expectations, or above, I think, almost in all cases, which, you know, that's kind of as good as you can hope for, I guess the Cybertruck maybe not withstanding on that comment. But it looks like that's pretty much on track, so all good stuff.
特斯拉，你对盈利电话会议有何期待？是的，这是一个很好的问题。希望他们谈论Cybertruck。我确信他们会谈论人工智能，以及Dojo。我们将会讨论ASP（平均售价）和成本。也会谈谈一些有趣的问题，尽管这个问题并不是我最喜欢的。对于这个问题，我会保持沉默。但我认为这次的电话会议应该会很好。我真的认为这些业绩相当优秀。或许在财报发布之前，人们对它有很高的期望，但是除此以外，我不太确定还能要求什么。也许如果他们说的是从本季度开始，而不是从今年开始推出Cybertruck，那会更令人兴奋。如果平均售价和成本之间的差异更大，利润更好，那将更加令人兴奋。但是总的来说，我认为这些业绩几乎都符合我的预期，甚至在所有方面都超过了我的预期。这是令人满意的，我想这可能是我们能期待的最好的结果了，也许Cybertruck除外。但看起来它的进展还是在计划之内的，所以一切都很顺利。
Just make sure, I do apologize if I missed any super chats from you all. Carlton, thank you. Shane, thank you, appreciate that. Feeling the love today. It's nice. That's very nice. We gotta do some meetups or something. Hopefully there's a Cybertruck event this quarter. Maybe we'll get some more information on that on the call. But yeah, it's always super fun. So if anyone can make those, you know, it is highly recommended, even if you can't make it to the actual event, invitation-wise, I would still recommend going. There's always a ton of fun stuff going on and tassel people out and about and stuff like that. I know there's a tassel takeover event pretty soon, so here I'm asking for a meetup. That's probably a great one to go to. I'm not gonna know that one unfortunately, schedule-wise, but I think that's on the 29th.
请务必确保，如果我错过了你们的任何超级留言，我向你们道歉。卡尔顿，谢谢你。谢恩，谢谢你，感激不尽。今天感受到了爱意，真好。这非常好。我们得办个聚会什么的。希望这个季度有个Cybertruck活动，也许在通话中我们会得到更多信息。但是，这总是非常有趣的。所以如果有人能参加，强烈推荐，即使不能真正去到活动现场，也建议去邀请。总是有很多有趣的事情和热情的人在那里。我知道很快就会有一个系带接管的活动，所以我在这里请求一个聚会。那可能是一个很棒的选择。不幸的是，时间安排不允许我参加那个。但我想那是在29号。
Cybertruck is still entwilling how much longer do you think it would take for reservations to be allowed to finalize orders before delivery? How much longer do you think it would take for reservations to be allowed to finalize orders before delivery? I'm not sure exactly what the question is here, but I think it will probably be, you know. I think the essence of the question is like, when the design studio might open fully for the Cybertruck? I would guess that that would happen post any delivery event. Tesla will deliver those to insiders, you know, early investors, employees, things like that. And I think there's, you know, usually when Tesla does that, that's probably when the design studio would come live, and maybe even after that point. So I'd still expect it to probably be, you know, be a couple of months out from now. Thomas, thank you. Heisenberg, thank you.
Cybertruck目前仍未确定还需要多久才能接受预订并最终交付订单？你认为还需要多久才能接受预订并在交付前最终确认订单？这个问题的具体意思我不太确定，但我认为可能是关于Cybertruck设计工作室何时完全开放的问题。我猜想，这可能会在任何交付活动之后进行。特斯拉会将车辆先交付给内部人员，如早期投资者和员工等。通常情况下，特斯拉这样做的时候，设计工作室可能会上线，甚至可能在此之后。所以我仍然预计可能还需要几个月的时间。感谢Thomas和Heisenberg的提问。
All right, we're gonna wrap it up, but again, down in the description, that is where the earnings call will be. We'll, you know, hopefully follow you guys over there, and I guess you follow me over there, either way. And we'll continue the conversation after the earnings call. All right, we'll see you soon, thank you.
好的，我们要结束了，但是在下方的描述中，就是财报发布的地方。我们会希望你们去那里找我们，而且我想你们也可以在那里找到我。在财报发布后，我们会继续对话。好了，我们很快就会见面，谢谢。