首页  >>  来自播客: User Upload Audio 更新   反馈

Bank of America 2023 Q2 Earnings Call

发布时间 2023-07-19 11:12:49    来源

中英文字稿  

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America earnings announcement. It is now my pleasure to turn the program over to Lee McIntyre. Please go ahead, sir.
大家好,欢迎来到美国银行的财报发布会。现在,我非常荣幸地把节目交给李·麦金塔尔先生。请开始吧,先生。

Thank you, Katherine. Good morning. Welcome and thank you for joining the call to review our second quarter results. I trust everyone has had a chance to review our earnings release documents. They're available on the investor relations section of the Bank of America dot com website and include the earnings presentation that we'll be referring to during the call. I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments before Alistair Barquich, our CFO, discusses the details of the quarter.
谢谢你,凯瑟琳。早上好。欢迎并感谢大家参加这次评估我们第二季度业绩的电话会议。我相信每个人都有机会阅读我们的财务业绩发布文件。它们可以在美国银行官方网站的投资者关系部分找到,并包括我们在电话会议中将参考的财务报告。首先,我将把电话交给我们的首席执行官布莱恩·莫尼汉,他将发表一些开场的评论,之后我们的首席财务官阿利斯泰尔·巴奎奇将详细讨论这个季度的细节。

Before I do that, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAP financial measures during the call. The forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risk and uncertainties. Factors that may cause the actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials and SEC filings that are available on the website. Information about our non-GAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are available on the website.
在我这样做之前,请允许我提醒您,我们可能会在电话会议中进行前瞻性陈述并参考非盈利核算标准的财务指标。这些前瞻性陈述基于管理层目前的预期和假设,可能面临风险和不确定性。导致实际结果与预期大幅不同的因素已在我们的盈利材料和美国证券交易委员会文件中详细说明,并可在网站上获得。关于我们的非盈利核算标准财务指标的信息,包括与美国盈利会计准则之间的调和,在我们的盈利材料中也可以找到。

So with that, my pleasure to turn the call over to you, Brian. Thanks.
所以,我很荣幸将电话转给你,Brian。谢谢。

Thanks, Lee, and good morning to all of you. And thank you for joining us. I'm starting on slide two of the earnings presentation. This Morning Bank of America reported one of the best quarters and one of the best first tasks that net income the company's history. Our results this quarter, once again, include solid performance on things we control by delivering organic growth and operating leverage. We did that in the economy that remains healthy and had a slowing rate of growth. It was also a quarter that included volatility from the debate about the debt ceiling, continuation in the central bank monetary tightening action, and a slowing in consumer spending and a slowing in inflation.
谢谢Lee,早上好,感谢大家的加入。我将从财务报告的第二张幻灯片开始。今天早上美国银行公布了一个最好的季度和最好的第一季度净收入,这是公司历史上的一次。我们本季度的业绩再次包括我们可以控制的因素的良好表现,通过提供有机增长和运营杠杆。我们在一直保持健康的经济中取得了这样的成绩,尽管增长速度有所放缓。这个季度还伴随着关于债务上限的辩论和中央银行货币收紧措施的持续不断,以及消费支出和通胀的放缓。

As you look at it now, our customer spending pattern is now more consistent with the pre-pandemic lower growth, lower inflation economy. Before Alster takes due details, let me summarize Bank America's quarter two performance. On slide two, you can see the highlights. We earned $7.4 billion after tax and grew earnings per share 21% over the second quarter of 2022. All business segments perform well, and I want to thank all my teammates for doing so.
从现在的情况来看,我们的客户消费模式现在更符合疫情前较低的增长和通货膨胀水平的经济。在奥斯特细节报告之前,让我先总结一下美国银行第二季度的表现。在第二页的幻灯片上,您可以看到一些亮点。我们经过税后盈利74亿美元,每股收益同比增长21%。所有业务部门表现良好,我要感谢所有的团队成员。

We grew clients and accounts organically and at a strong pace. We delivered an eighth straight quarter of operating leverage, led by 11% year over year of revenue growth. We further strengthened our balance sheet, improving our common equity tier one ratio was 110 basis points year over year at 11.6%. And we have $867 billion in global liquidity sources. We also produced strong returns for our shareholders with a return on change of a common equity of 15.5% continuing a streak of many quarters at that level or above.
我们以有机和强劲的速度增加了客户和账户。我们实现了第八个季度的运营杠杆效应,并以11%的年同比收入增长率领先。我们进一步加强了资产负债表,改善了我们的普通股一级资本比率,年同比增长了110个基点至11.6%。我们拥有8670亿美元的全球流动性来源。我们也为股东带来了强劲的回报,普通股变动回报率为15.5%,继续保持了连续多个季度达到或超过该水平的趋势。

While our business has performed well this quarter, I would particularly highlight our global markets and sales and trading team and our investment banking teams. Both have appeared outperformed their industry peers. Investment made over the past couple of years in global markets capabilities under Jimmy DeMarra's leadership, as well as Matthew Coder's leadership in the global corporate investment banking area, allowed us to prove our market shares for both of these peoples. I'd also note the strong contribution by our middle market clients to that in our teammates there, led by Wendy Stewart.
尽管我们公司在这个季度表现良好,但我想特别提到我们的全球市场、销售和交易团队以及投资银行团队。两者在行业中表现出色,超过了同行业竞争对手。在过去几年中,由吉米·德玛拉领导的全球市场能力投资以及由马修·科德领导的全球企业投资银行领域的投资,使我们能够证明我们在这两个领域的市场份额。我还要提到我们的中型市场客户以及他们在其中所做出的巨大贡献,由温迪·斯图尔特带领。

I'd also like to touch a few additional points before turning the call over to Alistair. These points will help illustrate continuing investment in the franchise and work we do to drive growth. Let's start with the organic growth slide on page three. On that page, we highlight some of the important elements of organic growth. You can see evidence in every business segment as you look at the page. In consumer, in quarter two, we opened 157,000 new checking accounts. Consumers now had 18 straight quarters of positive net new checking account growth. These are core primary checking accounts across the board, allowing our tremendous deposit franchise to continue to prosper and take market share.
在把电话转给艾尔斯泰之前,我还想提及几个额外的观点。这些观点将有助于说明我们对该特许经营品牌的持续投资和推动增长所做的工作。让我们从第三页的有机增长部分开始。在该页上,我们突出了有机增长的一些重要因素。您可以从该页上看到每个业务领域的证据。在消费者方面,在第二季度,我们开设了157,000个新的支票账户。消费者的净新支票账户增长已连续增长了18个季度。这些是全面核心的主要支票账户,允许我们的巨大存款特许经营继续繁荣并占据市场份额。

While the progress here may appear inchmeal over the last three years, we've grown our core customers and consumer checking account customers from 33 million to 36 million. We opened another 1 million plus credit card accounts this quarter and have 10% more investment accounts this year than we did last year in the consumer business. Consumer investment business balances reached a new high of $387 billion, aided by a 30% increase in new fund consumer investment accounts you every year and frankly, moving our money from our depositors into the market as they've done so.
虽然在过去三年中,我们在这里取得的进展可能看起来很缓慢,但我们的核心客户和消费者支票账户客户数量已从3300万增长到3600万。本季度我们还新增了100多万个信用卡账户,今年我们的消费者业务投资账户比去年增加了10%。消费者投资业务余额达到了3870亿美元的新高,这得益于每年新开设的消费者投资账户数量增长了30%,同时,我们将存款人的钱投入市场,这也是他们所做的。

In global wealth, we added 12,000 net new relationships in Maryland. the private bank. Our advisors opened more than 36,000 new banking relationships in the quarter, sharing a strong differentiation in our model of fulfilling both investment and banking. In the past 90 days, we added 190 experienced advisors to our sales force in addition to the digital capabilities to help us deliver at scale.
在全球财富方面,我们在马里兰州的私人银行增加了12,000个净新客户关系。我们的顾问在这个季度开设了超过36,000个新的银行关系,展示了我们兼具投资和银行业务的模式的强大差异化。在过去的90天里,除了数字化能力以协助我们规模化交付之外,我们还增加了190名经验丰富的顾问加入我们的销售团队。

In global banking, we added clients to increase the number of solutions per relationship. Over the past three years, we've added net new relationship managers and increased our client facing headcount by nearly 10%. We've also improved our tools for prospect colleagues for investments in technology and its benefiting our ability to add customers to improve our solutions per existing client. Year to date, we've added about 1,000 new commercial and business banking clients across the United States, which is the same number we added in the full year of last year. Again, the operationalizing that ability to do this at scale increases our speed on boarding these clients.
在全球银行业中,我们增加了客户,以提高每个客户关系的解决方案数量。在过去的三年中,我们新增了净增长的客户关系经理,并将我们面向客户的员工数量增加了近10%。我们还改进了我们为投资技术的新同事提供的工具,这些改进有助于我们增加客户以提高现有客户的解决方案。迄今为止,我们已经在美国新增了约1,000个新的商业银行客户,这与去年整年新增的客户数量相同。再次强调,将这种能力运用到规模上增加了我们吸纳这些客户的速度。

In our global markets area, we saw one of the highest second quarters for sales and trading in our history. It's another quarter of good organic growth. The key that growth will manage in our expansion trajectory, which Alistair is going to cover, requires an inherent efficiency progress from digital and other applied technology across all our units. Digital superiority is key to our operating dynamics. First, it produces a great customer experience, resolving strong customer retention and strong customer scores. It ensures our position as lead transactional bank for our customers, whether they're consumers, companies or investors. Third, it preserves its strong deposit balance, is a good price and do the core nature of transactional deposits. And last but importantly, it leads to efficiency.
在我们的全球市场领域,我们看到了我们历史上销售和交易业务最高的第二季度之一。这是又一个良好有机增长的季度。实现增长的关键在于我们的扩张轨迹的管理,这需要从数字化和其他应用技术中获得内在效率进步,涵盖我们所有的单位。数字优势是我们运营动力的关键。首先,它为客户提供出色的体验,促进客户的强大保留和高分评价。它确保我们作为客户的首选交易银行——无论他们是消费者、公司还是投资者的位置。第三,它保持了强大的存款平衡,以良好的价格进行交易性存款的核心性质。最后但同样重要的是,它带来了效率。

So how we're doing on digital progress, you can see that on slide four, first with the consumer. In consumer, we now have 46 million active users that are digital engaged with our digital platform and are logging over 1 billion times a month, and even with this scale, the stage of maturity logins is up to double digits from last year. Customer uses of ERCA continues to be the expectations. This was an early application of natural language processing and artificial intelligence that we built in our company and it continues to learn about it with additional use. Interactions with ERCA rose 35% in just the past year and now it's crossed over 1.5 billion kind of interactions in the first five years of introduction. There's a lot of questions about artificial intelligence out there, but one can't clue together a series of systems. We have to build a system that is highly regulated, highly customer focused business. In ERCA is one such application, you can see its impact. Likewise, Zell has a slowdown either. The number of people using Zell grew 19% this past year.
关于数字进展,你可以在第四张幻灯片上看到,首先是消费者方面。在消费者方面,我们现在有4600万活跃用户与我们的数字平台互动,并且每月登录超过10亿次,即使在这个规模下,登录数相较去年已经增长了两位数。顾客对ERCA的使用仍然符合预期。这是我们公司早期应用的自然语言处理和人工智能技术,随着使用的增加,它继续学习。与ERCA的互动在过去一年中增长了35%,并且在引入的前五年里已经超过了15亿次互动。人们对人工智能有很多疑问,但我们不能简单地将一系列系统组合起来,我们必须构建一个受到高度监管、专注于客户的业务体系。ERCA就是这样一个应用,你可以看到它的影响。同样,Zell的增长也没有放缓。过去一年,使用Zell的人数增长了19%。

Remember, these aren't new functionalities at this point. They've been around for years, but they continue to grow a very strong growth rate showing customer desire and acceptance of the activities. You can see the digital sales continue to grow. We continue to have both great high tech and high touch options. As part of that, we've added 310 new financial centers since 2019. By the end of this year, we have refurbished every one of our existing centers in our company. We plan on hoping 50 more centers a year for the next few years, which include expansion in nine new markets we announced a few weeks ago. The branches to these markets is enhanced by digital and leads to strong low success. Just to give you a point of reference, for all the expansion markets of the last several years, for branches open a year or more in those expansion markets, our average deposit balance per those branches are $160 million in each branch.
请记住,这些并不是新的功能。它们存在已有很多年了,但它们不断以非常强劲的增长速率增长,显示出顾客对这些活动的需求和接受程度。你可以看到数字销售不断增长。我们继续拥有技术先进的高科技和高贴身服务选项。作为其中的一部分,我们自2019年以来已经增加了310个新的金融中心。到今年年底,我们将为公司中的每一个现有中心进行翻新。在接下来的几年里,我们计划每年增加50个中心,其中包括我们几周前宣布的九个新市场的扩展。通过数字化增强了对这些市场的银行网点,并取得了强劲的低成本成功。只为给你个参考,在过去几年的所有扩展市场中,对于那些在这些扩展市场开设已有一年或更长时间的银行网点,我们每个银行网点的平均存款余额为1.6亿美元。

You go to the wealth management digital on slide five. You can see that they continue to be the most digitally engaged clients in our company. Our advisors have led the way in driving a personal driven advice model supplemented by our digital tools. You can see the client adoption rate of 82% in Maryland and 92% in the private bank. 78% of embraced digital delivery as a tool of service, providing more convenience for them and our advisors. Eric and Zell also continue expanding these clients' sets. A new program announced just a few. quarters ago has generated 20,000 digital leads to 7,000 advisors. It's called Advisor Match matching our clients with advisors of their choice.
在第五张幻灯片上,你可以查看财富管理数字化的情况。可以看到他们是我们公司中最积极参与数字化的客户。我们的顾问在推动个性化驱动的咨询模式方面引领了道路,辅以我们的数字工具。在马里兰州,客户采用率达到了82%,而在私人银行则达到92%。78%的人接受了数字化递送作为一种服务工具,为他们和我们的顾问提供了更多便利。埃里克和泽尔还继续扩大这些客户群体。几个季度前推出的一个新项目为7000名顾问带来了20000个数字化商机。这个项目被称为顾问匹配,将我们的客户与他们所选择的顾问进行匹配。

On slide six, you can see the digital engagement in the global banking area. Corporate Treasures. Corporate Treasury teams and our clients appreciate these doing business with us digitally. Cash Pro app sign-ins are up nearly 60% from last year, where the value of payments through cash pro app are up 20%. As you can see, every line of business is delivering strong organic growth. The investments made in technology have enabled us to grow industry-link positions and digital tools while enabling our clients to do great things and making us more efficient. This provides her a very satisfied, stable customer and client base with Bank of America's primary provider. And by doing it with a digital application, that also produces operating leverage.
在第六张幻灯片上,您可以看到全球银行业的数字参与情况。企业财宝。企业财务团队和我们的客户喜欢通过数字方式与我们开展业务。去年以来,Cash Pro应用程序的登录次数增长了近60%,而通过Cash Pro应用程序的支付金额增长了20%。正如您所见,每个业务线都在实现强劲的有机增长。在技术投资方面做出的努力使我们能够发展行业联系职位和数字工具,同时使我们的客户能够做出伟大的事情,并提高了我们的效率。这为她提供了一个非常满意、稳定的客户和客户群体,成为美国银行的主要供应商。通过数字应用程序完成这一切,还产生了运营杠杆效应。

On slide seven, you can see our streak of operating leverage continued in the second quarter of 2023. We're now back in eight quarters in a row. The chart on slide seven covers eight and a half years of 34 quarters. And all but eight of those quarters, and you can see those identified, six of which were in the heart of the pandemic. We've achieved operating leverage. Operating leverage is that simple task of growing revenue at a better growth rate than expense. As I said, Alistair's going to discuss with you our good and declining expansion trajectory, which sets us up to continue to provide operating leverage even with a shifting economy.
在第七张幻灯片上,您可以看到我们的经营杠杆在2023年第二季度继续增长。我们已经连续八个季度都取得了好成绩。第七张幻灯片上的图表涵盖了34个季度的8年半时间。除了其中8个季度(在图中标出的),我们都实现了经营杠杆,其中6个季度正值疫情高峰期。我们取得了经营杠杆的成果。经营杠杆就是以比费用更高的增长率来增加收入的简单任务。正如我所说,阿利斯泰尔将与您讨论我们良好和逐渐下降的扩张轨迹,这使我们能够在经济形势变化的情况下继续提供经营杠杆。

In sum, in the quarter we deliver earnings at a 19 percent higher than a 15 percent return on table common equity. That was driven by continued storing organic growth and operating leverage in a volatile economic environment. Alistair's going to talk to you about a bit more strength we see ahead in our netherage income for the balance of the year. That provides a better start as we think about 2024. You're going to hear our expectations for the quarterly declined expenses in the following quarters for the rest of 23, even as we keep investing. And you hear about the resilience of credit and strong trajectory capital. This all positions as well to continue both our streets of organic growth and operating leverage. With that, let me turn over to Alistair.
总之,在本季度,我们的收益率比表格共同股权的15%回报率高出19%。这是由于持续的有机增长和在不稳定的经济环境中的运营杠杆驱动的。艾利斯泰尔将会对我们在今年余下时间内看到的净息收入的更强劲增长说一些更多的话。这为我们考虑2024年提供了一个更好的开端。在接下来的23年里,尽管我们将继续投资,你将会听到我们对季度支出的预期下降。你还将了解到信用和资本的弹性和强劲发展轨迹。这一切都使我们能够继续实现有机增长和运营杠杆。现在,我将转给艾利斯泰尔。

Thank you, Brian. And on slide eight, we list the more detailed highlights of the quarter, and then slide nine presents assembly income statements. I'm going to refer to both of those. For the quarter, we generated 7.4 billion in net income, and that resulted in 88 cents per diluted share. Our year over year revenue growth of 11 percent was led by a 14 percent improvement in net interest income, coupled with a strong 10 percent increase in sales and trading results, X, DVA. Revenue is strong, and it included a few headwinds, and I thought I'd go through those headwinds first. We had lower service charges from both higher earnings credit rates on deposits for commercial clients, and the policy changes we announced in late 2021 to lower our insufficient funding overdraft fees for our consumer customers.
谢谢,布莱恩。在第八张幻灯片上,我们列出了本季度更详细的亮点,第九张幻灯片展示了总装收入报表。我打算参考这两份报告。本季度我们实现了74亿美元的净收入,每股摊薄收益为88美分。我们的年同比收入增长11%,其中净利息收入提高了14%,销售和交易结果X、DVA也增长了10%。收入仍然强劲,但也面临一些不利因素,我打算先讲一下这些不利因素。我们从商业客户存款的较高收益信贷利率以及2021年底宣布的为降低我们的消费者客户不足资金透支费用而进行的政策调整中减少了服务费用。

The good news on the consumer piece is year over year comparisons get a bit easier starting next quarter as the third quarter of 22 reflects the full first quarter of these changes. Second, we had lower asset management and brokerage fees as a result of the lower equity and fixed income market levels and market uncertainty that impacted transactional volumes compared to a year ago quarter. Third, we had a net DVA loss of 102 million in this quarter compared to a gain in DVA of 158 million in the second quarter a year ago. We also recorded roughly 200 million securities losses as we closed out some available for sale security positions and their related hedges and we put the proceeds in cash. Lastly, and just as a reminder, our tax rate benefits from ESG investments, and those are somewhat offset by operating losses on the ESG investments which show up in other income. So this quarter, our tax rate is a little bit lower, and the operating losses are a little bit higher from volume of these deals. So you have to be careful in analyzing the lower tax rate without considering the operating losses and that in turn often offsets what would have been higher revenue elsewhere. Our tax rate for the full year is expected to benefit by 15% as a result of the ESG investment tax credit deals. And absent these credits, our effective
消费者部门的好消息是,从下个季度开始,与去年同期相比会更容易进行年度比较,因为2022年第三季度反映了这些变化的整个第一季度。其次,由于股权和固定收益市场水平较低以及市场不确定性影响的交易量相比去年同期下降,我们的资产管理和经纪费用也有所降低。第三,本季度我们在DVA方面亏损了1.02亿美元,而去年同期第二季度我们的DVA盈利是1.58亿美元。我们还记录了大约2亿美元的证券损失,因为我们清算了一些可供出售的证券头寸及其相关对冲,并将收益转为现金。最后,需要提醒的是,我们的税率受到ESG投资的税收优惠,但这些优惠在其他收入中会被经营亏损所抵消。因此,这一季度我们的税率略低,而这些交易的规模导致了经营亏损的增加。因此,在分析较低的税率时,必须谨慎考虑经营亏损,这通常会抵消其他地方可能出现的更高收入。预计今年全年我们的税率将受到ESG投资税收优惠交易的15%的影响。除了这些优惠,我们的有效税率将会是什么样的,我们

End. tax rate would still be roughly 25% and we continue to expect a tax rate of 10 to 11% for the rest of 2023. Expense for the quarter of 16 billion included roughly 276 million in litigation expense which was pushed higher this quarter by the agreements announced last week with the OCC and the CFPB on consumer matters.
最终,税率仍将大约为25%,我们预计在2023年剩余时间内的税率将保持在10%至11%之间。该季度的支出为160亿美元,其中大约包括2.76亿美元的诉讼费用,这一费用在本季度因上周与OCC和CFPB在消费者事务上达成的协议而增加。

Asset quality remains solid and provision expense for the quarter was 1.1 billion consisting of 869 million in net chargeoffs and 256 million in reserve built. The provision expense reflects the continued trend in chargeoffs toward pre-pandemic levels and it's still below historical levels. The charge off rate was 33 basis points and that's only one basis point higher than the first quarter and still remains well below the 39 basis points that we last saw in Q4 2019 when remember 2019 was a multi-decade low.
质量资产依然稳固,本季度拨备费用为11亿美元,其中包括净核销额达8.69亿美元以及建立储备额达2.56亿美元。这一拨备费用反映了核销金额持续朝着疫情前水平回归的趋势,并且仍然低于历史水平。核销率为33个基点,仅比第一季度高1个基点,并且仍然远低于我们在2019年第四季度看到的39个基点,记住2019年是一个持续数十年低点。

I'd also use slide 9 just to highlight returns and you can see we generated 15.5% return on tangible common equity and 94 basis points return on assets.
我也会使用第9张幻灯片来突出强调回报率,你可以看到我们创造了15.5%的有形普通股权回报率和94基点的资产回报率。

Let's turn to the balance sheet starting with slide 10 and you can see our balance sheet ended the quarter at 3.1 trillion declining 72 billion from the first quarter. A 33 billion or 1.7% reduction in deposits closely matched a 41 billion dollar decline in securities balances through paydowns from the whole to maturity and sales of available for sale securities. Securities are now down 177 billion from a quarter to 22. Cash levels remained high at 374 billion and loans grew 5 billion. As Brian noted our liquidity remains strong with 867 billion of liquidity up modestly from the first quarter of 23 and still remains nearly 300 billion above our pre-pandemic fourth quarter 19 level.
让我们转到资产负债表,从第十页开始,您可以看到我们的资产负债表在本季度末达到了3.1万亿美元,比第一季度下降了720亿美元。存款减少了330亿美元,相当于出售到到期的证券和可供出售证券的410亿美元的减少。证券余额已从上一季度下降了1770亿美元至220亿美元。现金水平保持在3740亿美元,贷款增长了50亿美元。正如布莱恩所指出的,我们的流动性依然强劲,达到8670亿美元,略高于第一季度(2300亿美元),并仍然比疫情前的2019年第四季度高出近3000亿美元。

Shareholders equity increased 3 billion from the first quarter as earnings were only partially offset by capital distributed to shareholders. AOCI decreased by 2 billion driven by derivatives valuation and AFS securities values were little changed. So there's little change in the AOCI component that impacts regulatory capital. Tangible book value is up 10% per share year over year. During the quarter we also paid out 1.8 billion in common dividends and we bought back 550 million in shares to offset our employee awards and last week we announced the intent to increase our dividend by 9% beginning in the third quarter.
股东权益从第一季度增加了30亿美元,因为收入仅部分被分配给股东的资本所抵消。净未实现收益权下降了20亿美元,这是由于衍生工具估值和可供出售证券价值几乎没有变化。因此,影响监管资本的净未实现利润组成几乎没有变化。每股有形净资产相比去年同期增长了10%。在本季度,我们还支付了18亿美元的普通股股息,并回购了5.5亿美元的股份来抵消员工奖励。上周,我们宣布打算从第三季度开始将股息提高9%。

To regulatory capital our CET1 level improved to 190 billion from March 31st and the ratio of CET1 improved more than 20 basis points to 11.6% once again adding to the buffer over our 10.4% current requirement while our risk-weighted assets increased modestly in the quarter. Also noteworthy on July 3rd we initiated dialogue with the Fed to better understand our CCAR exam results and the remaining discussions today with no news to update as of now. In the past 12 months we've improved our CET1 ratio by more than 110 basis points and we've done that while supporting clients for loan demand and returned 11.3 billion in dividends and share with purchases to shareholders.
在监管资本方面,我们的CET1水平从3月31日起提高到了1900亿美元,并且CET1比例也提高了超过20个基点,达到11.6%,再次超出我们目前10.4%的要求,而我们的风险加权资产在这个季度中略有增加。值得注意的是,7月3日,我们与联储局展开对话,以更好地了解我们的CCAR考试结果,至今为止,还没有更新的消息。在过去的12个月里,我们提高了超过110个基点的CET1比率,同时支持客户的贷款需求,并向股东回报了113亿美元的股息和股份购买。

A supplemental leverage ratio was 6% versus our minimum requirement at 5% and that leaves us plenty of capacity for balance sheet growth. Finally the TLAQ ratio remains comfortably above our requirements.
辅助杠杆比率为6%,而我们的最低要求为5%,这为我们的资产负债表增长提供了充足的空间。最后,TLAQ比率仍然远远超出我们的要求。

So let's now focus on loans by looking at average balances. You can see those on slide 11 and there you can see average loans grew 3% year over year. The drivers of loan growth are much the same. Consumer credit card growth is strong and then commercial loans grew 4%. The credit card growth reflects increased marketing enhanced offers and higher levels of account openings over time. And commercial we saw a little bit of a slowdown in this quarter driven by higher paydowns from borrowers and weaker customer demand as opposed to any credit availability from us. We are still open for business for loans. While loan growth has slowed it's generally remained still ahead of GDP and commercial client conversations remain solid as our clients seem to be waiting for some of the economic uncertainty to lift before borrowing further.
现在让我们来关注贷款,看看平均余额。您可以在第11张幻灯片上看到这些内容,平均贷款余额同比增长3%。贷款增长的驱动因素大致相同。消费者信用卡增长强劲,商业贷款增长4%。信用卡增长反映了营销增强方案和随着时间推移账户开设水平的提高。商业部门在这个季度出现了一些放缓,这是由借款人较高的偿还以及较弱的客户需求所致,而不是我们提供的信贷可用性。我们仍然为贷款业务开放。尽管贷款增长有所放缓,但它仍普遍超过国内生产总值,商业客户的谈话仍然稳固,因为我们的客户似乎在借贷进一步之前正在等待经济不确定性的消除。

Slide 12 shows the breakout of deposit trends. That's on a weekly ending basis across the last two quarters and it's the same chart that we provided last quarter.
第12张幻灯片显示了存款趋势的分解情况。这是在过去两个季度每周末的基础上的数据,与上一季度我们提供的相同图表。

In the upper left you see the trend of total deposits. We ended the second quarter at 1.88 trillion down 1.7% with several elements of our deposits seeming to find stability. Given the normal tax seasonality impacts on deposit balances in Q2 and the monetary policy actions we believe this is a good result.
在左上角的图表中显示了总存款趋势。我们在第二季度以1.88万亿的存款结束,较上一季度下降了1.7%,而我们的存款似乎在一些方面已经稳定下来。考虑到第二季度正常的税收季节性对存款余额的影响以及货币政策的行动,我们认为这是个不错的结果。

I want to use the other three charts on the page to illustrate the different trends across the last quarter and more specifically in each line of business.
我想使用页面上的另外三个图表来说明上个季度各个业务线的不同趋势,特别是每个业务线。

In consumer looking at the top right chart you see the difference in the movement through the quarter between the balances of low to no interest checking accounts and the higher yielding non-checking accounts. Here you can also see the low levels of our more rate sensitive balances in consumer investments and CD balances and they're both broken out here. In total we've got still more than 1 trillion in high quality consumer deposits which remains 274 billion above pre-pandemic levels.
消费者在观察右侧图表时会发现,在本季度,低利率或无利率支票账户和高收益非支票账户的余额变动之间存在差异。在这里,您还可以看到消费者投资和定期存款余额的利率敏感性较低的水平,它们都在这里有详细说明。总体而言,我们仍然拥有超过1万亿的高质量消费者存款,仍比疫情前水平高出2740亿。

In the second quarter that decline in consumer deposits was driven by higher debt payments, higher spend and seasonal tax activity and some non-checking balances that rotated from deposits into brokerage accounts. We did see some competitive pressure this quarter within about roughly 40 billion of CDs as some of the financial institutions' post-price is higher and at this point with deposits far exceeding our loans we've not yet felt the need to chase deposits with rate.
在第二季度,消费者存款的下降是由于较高的债务偿还、较高的支出和季节性税收活动以及部分非支票余额从存款转入经纪账户所致。本季度我们确实感受到了一些竞争压力,大约有400亿美元的存单因为一些金融机构的定价提高而有所下降。然而,考虑到存款远远超过贷款,我们目前还没有感到必须以高利率来争夺存款的需求。

Broadly speaking average deposit balances of our consumers remain at multiples of their pre-pandemic level especially in the lower end of our customer base. Total rate paid on consumer deposits in the quarter rose to 22 basis points and remains low relative to fed funds driven by the high mix of quality transactional accounts. Most of this quarter's 10 basis point rate increase remains concentrated in those CDs and consumer investment deposits and together those represent only 11% of our consumer deposits. According to wealth management this business is also impacted by tax payments and normally shows the most relative rate movement because these clients tend to have the most excess cash.
总体而言,我们消费者的平均存款余额仍然是其疫情前水平的几倍,尤其是在我们的客户基础中较低端的部分。本季度消费者存款的总利率上升至基准点的22个百分点,相对于联邦资金利率来说仍然偏低,这是由于高质量交易账户占比较高。本季度10个基本点利率上升的大部分集中在那些存款证书和消费者投资存款上,而这两者仅占我们消费者存款的11%。根据财富管理部门的说法,这个业务也受到税收支付的影响,通常表现出相对较大的利率波动,因为这些客户往往拥有最多的闲置资金。

The previous quarter's trend of clients moving money from lower yielding sweep accounts into higher yielding preferred deposits and moving off balance sheet onto other parts of the platform seemed to stabilize this quarter and our sweep balances were more modestly down at 72 billion.
上个季度客户将资金从低收益扫描账户转移到高收益的首选存款账户,并将其从资产负债表转移到平台的其他部分的趋势,在本季度似乎已经稳定下来,我们的结余较为适度地减少到了720亿。

At the bottom right note the global banking deposit stability we ended the second quarter at 493 billion down 3 billion from the first quarter. We've now been in this 490 to 500 billion range for the past several quarters and these are generally the transactional deposits of our commercial customers that they use to manage their cash flows. And while the overall balances are being stable we've continued to see shift towards interest-bearing as the Fed raised rates one more time during the quarter before pausing in June. Non-interest-bearing deposits were 40% of their deposits at the end of the quarter.
在右下角注意到我们在第二季度结束时的全球银行存款稳定性,金额为4930亿美元,比第一季度减少了30亿美元。在过去几个季度,我们的存款一直在4900亿至5000亿美元之间波动,这些一般是我们商业客户用来管理现金流的交易性存款。尽管总体余额保持稳定,但在本季度联邦储备局在六月暂停之前再次提高了利率,我们仍然看到存款向计息存款转移的趋势。在本季度末,不计利息的存款占总存款的40%。

Focusing for a moment on average deposits using slide 13 I really only have one additional point to make. While you've seen the modest down tick in deposits for the past several quarters as the Fed has remained some accommodation we just want to note that deposits remain 33% above the fourth quarter of 2019 pre-pandemic period. And as you look at the page every segment relative to pre-pandemic is up at least 15%. Consumers up 40% consumer checking is up more than 50% and as noted global banking is being right around 500 billion for the past five quarters and it remains 31% above pre-pandemic.
暂且把我们的注意力放在使用第13页来讨论平均存款上,我只有一个额外的观点要提出。尽管在过去几个季度,由于美联储一直提供某种的支持,你们已经看到存款出现了适度的下滑,但我们只是想指出,存款仍然比2019年第四季度疫情前时期高出33%。而且,从疫情前的角度来看,每个部门的情况都至少增长了15%。消费者增长了40%,消费者支票账户增长超过50%,如前所述,全球银行的存款额在过去的五个季度一直维持在约5000亿美元,比疫情前高出31%。

So let's move to slide 14 and we'll continue the conversation that we began last quarter around management of excess deposits above loans.
所以我们转到第14页,我们将继续上个季度开始的关于管理超过贷款额的过剩存款的讨论。

In the top left note the balances in the second quarter of each year since the pandemic began. The excess of deposits needed to fund loans increased from 500 billion pre-pandemic to a peak of 1.1 trillion in the fall of 2021. And as you can see it remains high at the end of June at 826 billion.
请注意左上角的注释,显示自疫情开始以来每年第二季度的余额。在疫情之前,用于贷款的存款过剩从5000亿增加到2021年秋季的高峰——达到了1.1万亿。正如您所见,到6月底,这个余额仍然很高,达到了8260亿。

In the top right note that the amount of cash and securities held has increased across time in line with the excess deposit trend. And you'll also note the mix shift over time. This excess of deposits over loans has been held in a balanced manner across the period shown with roughly 50% fixed, longer-dated held to maturity securities. And the rest has been held in shorter dated available for sale securities in cash. Cash and the shorter-dated AFS securities combined was 516 billion at the end of the quarter and cash at 375 billion is more than twice what we held pre-pandemic and you should expect to see that come down over time.
请注意右上角的注释,金额表明现金和证券持有量随着过去的时间而增加,与存款过剩的趋势保持一致。您还会注意到随着时间的推移,组合也在发生变化。存款超过贷款的差额已经在所示期间内以平衡的方式保持,大约50%的固定、较长期限的到期持有证券。剩下的资金则以较短期限的可供出售证券和现金的形式进行持有。季末的现金和较短期限的可供出售证券合计为5160亿美元,而现金为3750亿美元,是疫情前的两倍多,您应该预计这个数字会随着时间的推移而下降。

We made these investments given the mix and transactional nature of our customers' deposits, particularly given the excess deposits built. But also in the bottom left chart the combined cash and securities yields continued to expand this quarter and remain meaningfully wider than the overall deposit rate paid. That's a result of two things. Securities book has seen a steady decline since the fall of 2021 when we stopped adding to it. With less loan funding needs proceeds from security paydowns have been deployed into higher yield in cash and through this action and the increased cash rates the combined cash and security yield has risen further and faster than deposit rates.
鉴于我们客户存款的结构和交易性质,尤其是考虑到多余的存款积累,我们进行了这些投资。但是在左下方的图表中,现金和证券投资的收益率在本季度持续扩大,并且仍然显著高于整体存款利率。这是由于两个原因。自2021年秋季停止增加证券投资以来,证券账面价值持续下降。由于贷款资金需求减少,证券赎回的资金被投入到更高收益的现金中,通过这种操作和增加的现金利率,现金和证券的综合收益率已经比存款利率进一步提高且速度更快。

Deposits at the end of the quarter were paying 124 basis points while our blend of cash and security says increased to 319 basis points. So over the past year the deposit cost has risen by 118 basis points and the cash and securities yield has improved by 164 basis points. And as a reminder this slide focuses on the banking book because our global markets balance sheet has remained largely market funded.
季度末的存款收益率为124个基点,而我们的现金和证券组合的收益率增至319个基点。因此,在过去一年中,存款成本上升了118个基点,而现金和证券的收益率提高了164个基点。提醒一下,这张幻灯片主要关注银行业务,因为我们的全球市场资产负债表主要由市场资金支持。

Finally one very last one last very important point that I want to make is on the improved NII of our banking book. The NII excluding global markets which we disclose each quarter, trough in the third quarter of 2020 at 9.1 billion and that compares to 14 billion in the second quarter of 2023. So almost 5 billion higher on a quarter basis 20 billion per year. That's led to a stronger capital position even as we returned capital to shareholders and supplied capital to our customers in the form of loans and other financing capital.
最后,我想要强调的一个非常重要的观点是关于我们银行业务账面利息净收入的改善。除全球市场外,我们每个季度披露的账面利息净收入,在2020年第三季度达到了91亿美元,而在2023年第二季度则达到了140亿美元。因此,季度基础上几乎增加了50亿美元,年度增加了200亿美元。这导致我们的资本状况更加强劲,即使我们向股东返还资本并向客户提供贷款和其他融资资本。

And then more specifically on the whole maturity book the balance of that portfolio declined again 10 billion from the first quarter. It's done 69 billion since we stopped adding to the book in the third quarter of 21. The market valuation on our whole to maturity book which is in a negative position worsened 7 billion since March 31st, 2023 driven by a 54 basis point increase in mortgage rates. The OCI impact from the valuation of our hedged AFS book modestly improved this quarter.
然后更具体地说,在整个到期日成本簿上,该投资组合的余额在第一季度再次减少了100亿美元。自2021年第三季度停止增加该簿时,已经减少了690亿美元。我们的整体到期日成本簿的市场估值处于负面位置,自2023年3月31日以来恶化了70亿美元,这是由于按揭利率上涨了54个基点所致。我们对套期保值可供出售金融资产簿估值的其他综合收益在本季度略有改善。

Let's turn to slide 15 and we can focus on net interest income on a gap or non FTE basis. NII in the second quarter was 14.2 billion and the fully tax equivalent NII number was 14.3 billion. So I'm going to focus on that fully tax equivalent. Here NII increased 1.7 billion from the second quarter of 22 or 14 percent. While our net interest yield improved 20 basis points to 2.06 percent. This improvement has been driven by rates which includes securities premium amortization, partially offset by global markets activity and 137 billion of lower average deposit balances. Large loan growth during the period of 32 billion also aided the year over year NII improvement.
让我们来看一下第15页,重点关注按照GAP或非全职职等基础来计算的净利息收入。第二季度的净利息收入是142亿,全面税官方计算净利息收入是143亿。所以我将重点关注全面税官方计算的净利息收入。在这里,相比于22年第二季度,净利息收入增加了17亿美元,增长了14%。与此同时,我们的净利息收益率提高了20个基点,达到2.06%。这一改善主要受到利率的推动,其中包括证券溢价摊销,部分被全球市场活动和1370亿美元的平均存款余额下降所抵消。期间的大规模贷款增长至320亿美元,也有助于净利息收入的同比改善。

Turning to a link quarter discussion NII of 14.3 billion is down 289 million or 2 percent from the first quarter and that's driven primarily by the continued impact of lower deposit balances and mixed shift into interest bearing partially offset by one additional day of interest in the period global markets NII increased during the quarter. The net interest yield fell 14 basis points in the quarter driven by a larger average balance sheet due to the cash positioning we chose and some higher funding costs. This quarter's compression we believe was just a little anomalous driven by our decision late first quarter to position the balance sheet around higher cash levels.
在转向链式讨论季度负息收入中,143亿美元的NII比第一季度减少了2.89亿美元,下降了2%,主要原因是存款余额持续减少和利息收益转变不利部分抵消,另外在该季度全球市场NII有所增长。由于我们选择了更高的现金配备,并且一些资金成本上升,季度净利息收益率下降了14个基点。我们相信,这个季度的压缩只是稍微异常,是由于我们在第一季度末决定以较高的现金水平来定位资产负债表。

Turning to asset sensitivity and focusing on a forward yield curve basis the plus 100 basis point parallel shift at June 30th was unchanged from March 31st 23 at 3.3 billion of expected NII over the next 12 months from our banking book and that assumes no expected change in balance sheet levels or mixed relative to our baseline forecast and 95 percent of the sensitivity remains driven by short rates. The 100 basis point down rate scenario was unchanged at negative 3.6 billion.
转向资产敏感性,并以前瞻收益曲线为基础,6月30日的加息100个基点的平行移动与3月31日的情况相同,预计未来12个月来自我们银行账面的利息净收入为33亿美元,并假设相对于我们基准预测预期资产负债表水平或混合不会发生变化,其中95%的敏感性仍然受到短期利率的驱动。下行100个基点的利率情景仍然保持在亏损36亿美元的水平上不变。

Let me give you a few thoughts on NII as we look forward. We still believe NII for the full year will be a little above 57 billion which would be up more than 8 percent from full year 2022 and this could include third quarter at approximately the same level as second quarter so think 14 to 14.3 and then fourth quarter somewhere around 14 billion that's a slightly better viewpoint than we had last quarter for the third and fourth quarter with a little more stability closer to the second quarter level and therefore provides a better start point for 2024.
让我就未来的费用趁我们多谈几点意见。我们仍然相信全年的费用会在570亿以上,比2022年的全年增长超过8%。这个数字可能包括第三季度的费用,大约与第二季度的水平相当,也就是14至14.3亿左右。然后第四季度的费用可能会在140亿左右,这个视角比上一季度对第三季度和第四季度的看法更为乐观,更接近第二季度的稳定水平,因此为2024年提供了一个更好的开始基础。

So let's talk through the caveats around our NII comments. First it assumes that interest rates in the forward curve materialize and an expectation of modest loan growth driven by credit card. In deposits we're expecting modestly lower balances led by consumer and we expect continued modest deposit mix shifts from global banking deposits into intersparing. The past few months have provided us a little more positive outlook around NII given the apparent stabilization of some elements of deposits. as well as better pricing and now we'll see how the rest of the year plays out.
那么,让我们先谈谈关于我们净利息收入(NII)评论的一些限制条件。首先,它假设利率在未来走势中得到实现,并期望通过信用卡驱动的适度贷款增长。在存款方面,我们预计消费者领域将带来适度下降的余额,并且我们预计全球银行存款将继续适度转向国际结汇存款。过去几个月对于NII,给我们提供了更加积极的展望,因为存款的某些要素显然已经稳定下来。此外,更好的定价方式也起到了积极作用,现在我们将看看今年的其余部分将如何发展。

Okay, let's turn to expense and we'll use slide 16 for that discussion. Second quarter expenses were 16 billion that was down 200 million from the first quarter and as I mentioned the second quarter included 276 million of litigation expense. In addition we also saw a little higher revenue related expense driven by ourselves and trading results. Those higher costs were more than offset by the absence of the first quarter seasonal elevation of payroll taxes and savings from a reduction in overall full-time headcount. Now excluding the 2500 or so summer interns that we welcomed into our offices over the summer months our full-time headcount was down roughly 4000 from the first quarter start point to 213,000. That's some good work after peaking at 218,000 in January.
好的,让我们转到费用方面,并使用第16张幻灯片进行讨论。第二季度的费用为160亿,比第一季度减少了2亿,正如我提到的,第二季度还包括2.76亿的诉讼费用。此外,我们还看到了一些与收入相关的费用增加,这是由我们自身和交易结果推动的。但是,这些较高的成本被第一季度季节性的支付税的减少以及全职员工数的减少所抵消。现在,除了夏季几个月我们欢迎的大约2500名暑期实习生外,我们的全职员工数从第一季度的起始点下降了大约4000人,到达了213,000人。这是自一月份达到218,000人以来的一些良好的成果。

Our summer interns will leave us in the third quarter and hopefully many will return as full-time associates next summer and at the same time in Q3 we welcome back about 2600 new full-time hires as college grads many of whom interned with us last summer and that's a very diverse class of associates who are excited to join the company.
我们的暑期实习生将在第三季度离开我们,希望其中很多人能够在明年夏天回归成为全职员工。与此同时,在第三季度我们也欢迎约2600名新的全职员工加入我们,他们是去年与我们进行实习的大学毕业生,而且这是一批非常多元化且兴奋加入公司的员工。

As we look forward to next quarter we would expect the third quarter expense to more fully benefit from the second quarter headcount reduction even as we remain in a mode of modest hiring for client facing positions. Additionally the proposed notice of special assessment from the FDIC to recover losses from the failures of Silicon Valley and signature banks could add 1.9 billion expense for us 1.5 billion after tax and we just remain unsure at this point of timing to record that expense.
展望下一个季度,我们预计第三季度支出将更充分地受益于第二季度的人员减少,即使我们仍处于对客户面向职位进行适度招聘的状态。此外,联邦储备局提议的特别评估通知,用以弥补硅谷和签名银行的损失,可能会为我们增加19亿美元的支出,税后为15亿美元,但我们目前仍不确定时间记录这笔费用的时机。

Let's now move to credit and we'll turn to slide 17. Net charge-offs of 869 million increased 62 million from the first quarter and the increase was driven by credit card losses as higher late stage delinquencies flowed through to charge-offs. For context the credit card net charge-off rate was 2.6% in Q2 and remains well below the 3.03% pre-pandemic rate in the fourth quarter of 19. Provision expense was 1.1 billion in Q2 and that included a 256 million further reserve built. That's driven by one growth particularly in credit card and it reflects a macroeconomic outlook that on a weighted basis continues to include an unemployment rate that rises to north of 5% in 2024.
我们现在转向信贷方面,幻灯片将跳转至17页。净核销金额为8.69亿美元,比第一季度增加了6,200万美元,这一增长主要是由于信用卡损失,由于逾期率升高,逾期阶段后的未偿还款项转化为核销。为了更好理解,二季度信用卡净核销率为2.6%,仍远低于2019年第四季度的3.03%疫情前的水平。预备费用在二季度为11亿美元,其中包括2.56亿美元的进一步准备金建立。这主要是由于信用卡等领域的增长,并反映了宏观经济展望,按权重计算,2024年的失业率将上升至5%以上。

On slide 18 we highlight the credit quality metrics for both our consumer and commercial portfolios. On consumer we note we continue to see asset quality metrics come off the bottom and they remain below historical averages. Overall commercial net charge-offs were flat from the first quarter and within commercial we saw a decrease in C&I losses that was offset by an increase in charge-offs related to commercial real estate office exposures. As a reminder commercial real estate office credit exposure represents less than 2% of our total loans and this is an area where we've been quite intentional around our client selection, portfolio concentration and deal structure over many years. As a result we've seen NPLs and realized losses that are quite low for this portfolio. In the second quarter we experienced 70 million in charge-offs on office exposure to write down a handful of properties where the LTV has deteriorated. Our charge-offs on office exposures were 15 million in the first quarter. We pulled forward some of the office portfolio stats provided last quarter in a slide in our appendix for you. We continue to believe that the portfolio is well positioned and adequately reserved against the current conditions.
在第18页上,我们强调了我们的消费者和商业投资组合的信用质量指标。在消费者投资组合中,我们注意到资产质量指标仍然低于历史平均水平,但正在逐渐好转。总体而言,商业投资组合的净核销保持与第一季度相当,但我们在商业部分中看到了商业与工商业损失的减少,但也因商业地产办公室风险敞口的核销增加而抵消了这一减少。需要提醒的是,商业地产办公室信贷风险占我们总贷款的比例不到2%,多年来我们在客户选择、投资组合集中度和交易结构方面保持了高度的慎重。因此,我们发现这个投资组合的不良贷款和实际损失非常低。第二季度,我们在办公室风险暴露方面核销了7000万美元,以清理数个贷款抵押率下降的物业。我们在第一季度的办公室风险核销为1500万美元。为您提供了上一季度附录中一张关于办公室投资组合统计数据的幻灯片。我们仍然相信我们的投资组合处于良好的位置,并充分准备好应对当前的情况。

Moving to the various lines of business and their results starting on slide 19 with consumer banking for the quarter consumer earned 2.9 billion on good organic revenue growth and delivered its ninth consecutive quarter of strong operating leverage while we continue to invest in our future. Note that top line revenue grew 15% while expense rose 10%. These segment results include the bulk of the impact of the costs of the regulator agreements from last week. Our reported earnings were strong in both periods at 2.9 billion. It understates the success of the business because the prior year included reserve releases while we built reserves this quarter for card growth. EPNR grew 21% year over year even with the added cost of the agreements. The revenue growth overcame a decline in service charges that I noted earlier. Much of this success is driven by the pace of organic growth, of checking and cardigans as well as investment accounts and balances as Brian noted earlier. In addition to the litigation noted expense reflects the continued business investments for growth. And as you think about this business remember much of the company's minimum wage hikes and the mid-year increase salary and wage moves in 2022 impact consumer banking the most and that therefore impacts the year over year comparisons.
从幻灯片19开始,介绍不同业务线及其业绩。在本季度的消费银行部门,由于良好的有机收入增长,我们赚取了29亿美元,并实现了连续第九个季度的强劲运营杠杆效应,同时我们继续对我们的未来进行投资。需要注意的是,收入增长了15%,而支出上升了10%。这些业务板块的结果包括上周监管协议的成本。我们的报告盈利在两个时期都非常强劲,达到29亿美元。但这并不准确反映了业务的成功,因为去年包括了储备金的释放,而本季度我们为信用卡增长而建立了储备金。即使考虑到协议的额外成本,收入增长也同比增长了21%。收入增长弥补了服务费用的下降,这点我之前提到过。这种成功很大程度上是由于支票和信用卡的有机增长,以及投资账户和余额的增加,正如Brian之前所说的。除了诉讼费用外,支出还反映了持续的业务投资以促进增长。当你考虑这个业务时,请记住,公司大部分的最低工资提升和2022年中期薪资增加对消费银行业务影响最大,因此会对同比增长进行影响。

According to wealth management on slide 20 we produced good results earning a little less than a billion dollars. These results were down from last year as asset management and brokerage fees felt the negative impact of lower equity, lower fixed income markets and some market uncertainty impacting transactional volume. Those fees were complemented by the revenue from a sizable banking business and that remains an advantage for us. As Brian noted earlier both Merrill and the private bank continue to see strong organic growth and produce solid client flows of 83 billion since the third, since the second quarter 22. Our assets under management flows of 14 billion reflected good mix of new client money as well as existing clients putting money to work. Expenses reflect lower revenue related incentives and also reflect continued investments in the business as we add financial advisors.
根据幻灯片20上的财富管理报告,我们取得了良好的业绩,收入接近10亿美元。与去年相比,由于较低的股权、固定收益市场以及一些市场不确定性对资产管理和经纪费用产生了负面影响,我们的业绩有所下降。这些费用得到了庞大银行业务的收入的补充,这仍然是我们的优势。正如Brian之前提到的,梅里尔和私人银行持续稳健增长,自第二季度以来客户资金流入达830亿美元。我们管理的资产净流入为140亿美元,体现了新客户资金和现有客户加大投资的良好结合。费用反映了较低的与收入相关的激励措施,并体现了我们在业务上持续投资,增加理财顾问的努力。

In slide 21 you see the global banking results and this business produced very strong results with earnings of 2.7 billion driven by 29 percent growth in revenue to 6.5 billion. Couple with good expense management this business produced strong operating leverage. Our global transaction services business has been robust. We've also seen a higher volume of solar and wind investment projects this quarter and our investment banking business is performing well in a sluggish environment. Year over year revenue growth also benefited from the absence of marks taken on leverage loans in the prior year period. We saw modest loan growth on average year over year and link quarter. The utilization rates declined and more generally we saw lower levels of demand. As we noted earlier the deposit flows have stabilized in the 490 to 500 billion dollar range over the past several quarters reflecting the benefits of our strong client relationships. The company's overall investment banking fees were 1.2 billion in the second quarter, growing 7 percent over the prior year and 4 percent link quarter. A good performance in a sluggish environment that softy pools down 20 percent year over year. Provision expense declined year over year as we built more reserve in the prior year. This was held relatively flat year over year even as we drove strategic investments in the business including relationship management hiring and technology costs. And additionally comparisons benefit from the absence of elevated expense for some regulatory matters in the second quarter of 22.
在第21张幻灯片上,您可以看到全球银行业务的结果,这个业务取得了非常强劲的业绩,收益达到27亿美元,收入增长29%,达到65亿美元。加上良好的费用管理,这个业务实现了强大的运营杠杆效应。我们的全球交易服务业务一直表现强劲。这个季度我们还看到太阳能和风能投资项目增加,而我们的投资银行业务在低迷的环境中运行良好。与去年同期相比,收入增长也受益于前一年期间没有采取杠杆贷款。我们看到贷款在年均和环比上都有适度增长。利用率下降,总体来看需求水平较低。正如我们前面所提到的,存款流量在过去几个季度中保持在4900到5000亿美元的范围内,反映了我们强大的客户关系的好处。公司整体投资银行费用在第二季度为12亿美元,同比增长7%,环比增长4%。在低迷的环境下表现不错,年同比下降了20%。提供费用年同比下降,因为去年我们在之前建立了更多准备金。尽管我们在业务中进行了战略性投资,包括关系管理雇佣和技术成本,但提供费用相对稳定。此外,与2022年第二季度相比,比较还受益于某些监管事项的费用不再高企。

Switching to global markets on slide 22. You had another strong quarter with earnings growing to 1.2 billion driven by revenue growth of 14 percent and I'm referring to results excluding DVAs we normally do. The continued themes of inflation, geopolitical tensions and central banks changing monetary policies around the globe along with this quarter's debt ceiling concerns continue to impact both the bond and equity markets. And as a result it was a quarter where we saw strong performance in both our macro and micro trading businesses. The investments made in the business over the past two years continue to produce favorable results. Year over year revenue growth benefited from strong sales and trading results and the absence of marks on leverage finance positions last year. Focusing on sales and trading, XDVA revenue improved 10 percent year over year to 4.4 billion. Thick improved 18 percent while equities was down 2 percent compared to the second quarter of 22. Year over year expense increased 8 percent, primarily driven by investments in the business and revenue related costs partially offset by the absence of regulatory matters in the second quarter of 22.
在第22页转向全球市场。你在另一个强劲季度中取得了不错的业绩,净利润增至12亿美元,收入增长了14%,这里所指的是我们通常排除掉信用相关准备金的结果。通胀、地缘政治紧张局势以及全球央行改变货币政策等持续存在的主题,再加上本季度的债务上限问题,继续对债券和股票市场产生影响。因此,这是一个我们在宏观和微观交易业务方面表现强劲的季度,过去两年对业务进行的投资继续产生了有利的结果。年度收入增长受益于强劲的销售和交易业绩,以及去年杠杆财务仓位上的不计提减值。重点放在销售和交易业务上,XDVA收入同比提高了10%,达到44亿美元。利息收入增长了18%,而股票交易则下降了2%,与22年第二季度相比。整体开支同比增长了8%,主要是由于对业务的投资和与收入相关的成本,部分抵消了22年第二季度监管事项的缺失。

Finally on slide 23 all other shows a loss of 182 million. New included 197 million of losses on security sales and increased volume of solar and wind investment operating losses that create the tax credits for the company. As a result of the increased solar and wind tax deal volume and their associated related operating losses, the effective tax rate in the quarter was lower 8 percent. But excluding ESG and any other discrete tax benefits our tax rate would have been 26 percent. So with that let's stop there and we'll open it up for Q and A. If you would like to ask a question please press star and one on your touch tone phone. You can remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing the pound key.
最后,在第23张幻灯片上,其他所有部分显示了1.82亿的亏损。这其中包括1.97亿的证券销售亏损和太阳能和风能投资运营亏损的增加,这为公司创造了税收减免。由于太阳能和风能税收交易量的增加及其相关运营损失,季度实际税率降低了8%。但是如果不考虑ESG和其他离散的税收减免,我们的税率将为26%。就到这里,我们将开放问题和回答环节。如果您想提问,请按下您的电话键盘上的星号和数字1键。您可以通过按下井号键随时从队列中移出。

We'll take our first question today from Gerard Cassidy with RBC. Your line is open. Thank you. Good morning Brian. Good morning Alistair. Brian can you give us a view from your standpoint of the new proposal the nation say new but the speech by vice chair bar about the likelihood of capitol ratios going up for large banks like your own. And then second there was a report today on Bloomberg that the capitol requirements for holding residential mortgages may go up meaningfully any thoughts on that as well.
我们今天将从RBC的Gerard Cassidy先生开始提问。您可以发言了。谢谢。早上好,布莱恩。早上好,阿利斯泰尔。布莱恩,你能从你的角度给我们一点关于副主席巴尔提出的新提案以及像你们这样的大银行资本充足率可能会上升的看法吗?其次,今天有一份彭博报告称,持有住宅抵押贷款的资本要求可能会显著增加,对此你有什么看法呢?

I think you're broadly stating I think as was said by many people that have held the position of the year as a capital industry is sufficient and I think there's been a desire to finish up the Basel III. Those rules will come out we think in a few weeks and you know like anything else will deal with them we have 11.6 percent CET1 ratio our requirements currently are 10.4 and so we got plenty of capitol and it's built up. So you know I think from a global competitiveness standpoint we've got to be careful here because the US industry is the best industry in the world and actually does a lot of good for all the countries will including the US and we and frankly the rules of the flight tend to be more favorable to those outside our country and so we got to be careful to maintain the competitive parity. But at the end of the day Gerard you need to finish this and get this behind us and then the industry will adopt and move forward and but they've got to think through the downside of some of these rules and that they could push stuff outside the industry to non-banks to half the asset classes across the board and non-banks including mortgage lending which you referenced half of a goes through non-banks and those resilience those institutions is interesting to watch through cycles and then the second thing they have to worry about is competitiveness overall but and then also just slowing down the economy a 10 percent increase in our capital levels would disable us from making about a hundred fifty billion dollars of loans at the margin and you want our banks to support the economy like we do so I think all this has to be balanced out as they go to adopt these rules.
我认为你在广泛陈述,正如许多曾担任年度资本产业职位的人所说,我们认为资本行业是足够的,我认为人们一直有一个完成巴塞尔III的愿望。我们认为那些规则将在几周内出台,你知道,就像其他任何事情一样,我们会处理它们,我们现在有11.6%的CET1比率,目前要求是10.4%,所以我们有足够的资本积累。因此,我认为从全球竞争力的角度来看,我们必须小心,因为美国行业是世界上最好的行业,实际上为包括美国在内的所有国家做了很多好事,而且坦率地说,这些规则倾向于对我们国家以外的地方更有利,所以我们必须小心保持竞争平衡。但是在最后,杰拉德,你需要完成这个任务,把它放在我们身后,然后行业会采纳并向前发展,但他们必须深思熟虑这些规则的不利之处,它们可能会迫使一些资产类别移出行业,进入非银行部门,包括你提到的按揭贷款,其中一半由非银行机构进行,这些机构在周期中的弹性很有趣,第二件需要担心的事情是整体竞争力,同时也要关注经济放缓,10%的资本水平增长将使我们无法提供大约1500亿美元的贷款,而你希望我们的银行像我们一样支持经济,因此我认为在他们采纳这些规则时必须平衡好所有这些事情。

Very good and then as a follow-up Alistair you talked about the balance sheet I think you said a hundred basis point increase would lead to over three billion and then interest revenue growth over the next 12 months and a hundred basis point decrease would lead to a decline of just over three billion dollars of revenue. Can you share with us when do you think you might change well what would make you change that position to be liability sensitive would you rely on the forward curve or what's the outlook for the balance sheet management that you're looking at now?
非常好,接着来讨论一下,艾利斯泰尔,你刚才谈到了资产负债表,我记得你说每个基点的增加会导致超过30亿的利息收入增长,在接下来的12个月里,而每个基点的降低会导致超过30亿美元的收入下降。请问你能否告诉我们,什么情况下你会改变你的责任敏感性,你会依靠前瞻曲线还是你现在对资产负债表管理的展望是什么?

Well Gerard I don't think much has changed for us we've talked about the fact that for us it's this idea of balance that's key and if you look at our disclosures around interest rate risk over the course of the past couple years you'll see it's more balanced both upside and downside and it's a narrower corridor over time so that we're trying to sustain NII at a higher level for longer that's what we're trying to engineer so I think going forward there won't be a lot of change to our philosophy in that regard we feel like we're in a pretty good position in terms of balance we'll be tweaking at the margin but what will largely drive things from here is just normalization of deposits and good old fashion longer.
嗯,杰拉德,我认为对我们来说,并没有太多改变。我们已经讨论过对我们来说,平衡是关键,如果你看看我们在过去几年对利率风险的披露,你会发现它更加平衡,上行和下行均衡,并且随着时间的推移,走廊变得更窄,这样我们就可以尝试长期维持更高水平的净利息收入,这就是我们试图实现的。因此,我认为未来在这方面我们的理念不会有太多改变,我们觉得目前在平衡方面处于相当不错的位置,我们只会在边际上进行微调,而从现在开始主要推动事情发展的只是存款的正常化和老式延长。

Very good thank you. We'll go next to Glenn Shor with Evercore your line is open. Glenn Glenn. Good morning. So no one could take issue with 600 base points of operating leverage but I just always like doing a little gut check expenses up 5% I heard all the reasons why a lot of investment that the IC charge is coming but I just want to make sure did anything change over the last like decade or so you've been basically flat for life is expenses more of a relative gain relative revenues or do you think you can keep expenses in and around the same area as you continue to invest. Thanks.
非常好,谢谢。下面请 Glenn Shor 进行提问,他是 Evercore 的代表,请发言。Glenn,早上好。所以,没有人会对 600 个基点的运营杠杆有意见,但是我总是喜欢进行一次简单的核对。支出增加了 5%,我听到了很多投资的原因,也知道了内部费用会增加,但是我只是想确保过去的十年左右时间里有没有什么变化。在你们基本持平的费用方面,是相对增益的相对收入还是您认为在继续投资的同时,可以保持费用在同一水平上?谢谢。

Glenn, I think if Alistair gave you a trajectory which if you look at it from fourth quarter last year the fourth quarter this year gets your relatively flat year over year and as your revenues flatten out because it industry movements flatten out you know you'll see that as we decline in the quarters that'll be strong so as we think about it as we think about the forward you know we think about the ability control head count and have expenses continue to come down but they're going to stay you know a level that's relatively consistent where we are now over time and the goal is then to grow revenue faster and expensive.
格伦,我认为如果艾利斯泰尔给你一个轨迹,在这个轨迹上,如果你从去年第四季度看到今年第四季度,你会发现你的年度相对平稳,因为你的收入也相对平稳,因为行业动态平稳,你会发现在我们衰退的季度里,这将是强劲的。所以当我们思考未来时,我们考虑到能够控制人员数量并且继续降低开支,但这些开支将保持相对稳定,在我们现在的水平上随着时间的推移。目标是加快收入和开支的增长速度。

We've been doing it for many decades you can see that in our data and you know and but the way we do it differs you know from five years ago to ten years ago to last year and that the ability to move the branch configuration around when we had 6,000 branches down to 4,000 or 3,900, 3,800,000 is different from 3,800 to where it might end up and so you should expect us to continue to engineer by applying massive amounts of technology. You know Erica saves a lot of transactional activity. Deposes by mobile phones save a lot of activity. All that goes on and then what we're offsetting with that is from the decade you talk about we probably went from two and a half billion of technology initiatives a year to 3.8 billion and we went we have a lot more revenue it's compensated for thinking about the wealth management business and that's those are things we fight all the time so we expect to manage expenses in line with the revenue as we got to 19 we told you that we're going to have to start growing expenses at a modest growth rate relative to the revenue growth rate we got the economy on revenue expensive growth up on a basis points lower kind of going to be back in that mode frankly it just with inflation they kicked up and now we flatten the back out then we'll get back in sync as we move to 24 and beyond.
我们已经这样做了很多年,你可以从我们的数据中看出来,但是我们进行的方式不同,你知道的,从五年前到十年前再到去年,我们能够在拥有6,000个分行的情况下,将分行配置调整到4,000个或3,900个,3,800,000个,与3,800个相比,我们可能会达到的结果是不同的,因此你应该指望我们会继续通过应用大量的技术来进行工程设计。你知道的,埃里卡(指某种技术)能够节省很多交易活动,通过手机存款也能够节省很多活动。所有这些进行下去,我们之前从十年前讲到的那个时期,我们的技术计划可能从每年25亿美元增加到38亿美元,而我们的收入也增加了很多,这是为了弥补财富管理业务所考虑的事情,我们一直在努力对抗这些问题,所以我们预计要根据收入来管理开支,当我们到了19年的时候,我们告诉过你们我们将不得不以适度的增长速度来增加开支,相对于收入增长速度,我们将经济发展与收入增长的开支增长率相匹配,从某种程度上说,我们会回到那种模式,只是受到通胀的影响,我们暂时停滞了,然后在24年及以后我们将重新步调一致。

And Glenn look the only thing I would just add to what Brian just said you know we put up 16-2 in the first quarter we were 16-ish this quarter obviously you know we kind of feel like next quarter just with all the work that we've done around headcount and getting the firm in the place that we want now we feel like we're well positioned to deliver 15-8 this quarter if we if and when we keep going we think we're going to be somewhere around 15-6 or so in Q4 so to Brian's point number one we like the trajectory now we've shaped the headcount over time to get to the place where we want to be and that would compare bigger than Q4 last year was 15-5 so you know when you talk about that sort of flattish idea in an inflationary environment we feel like that's a pretty good way to end this year and a pretty good way to set up for next year.
而且格伦,我只是想在布赖恩刚才说的基础上补充,你知道,在第一季度我们增加了16-2个头寸,而本季度我们大约增加了16个头寸。显然,由于我们在员工编制和公司定位方面做了大量工作,我们觉得下一季度我们有很好的机会实现15-8个头寸,继续发展我们认为在第四季度我们可能达到15-6个头寸左右。所以,回到布赖恩的观点,首先,我们对前景非常满意,我们经过一段时间来调整员工编制,已经达到了我们想要的位置,与去年第四季度的15-5个头寸相比,这是一个比较大的增长。所以,在通胀环境中讨论这种相对稳定的想法时,我们觉得这是一个结束今年的不错方式,也是为明年做好准备的不错方式。

Totally great thanks for all that I appreciate it. We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo your line is open. Hi Mike. Good morning so I don't think consensus has you the positive option of the third quarter and I do for make sure I heard you correctly Brian your opening remark is you expect that eight quarter of consecutive positive offering of which to continue so you expect nine quarters or ten quarters or as long as you can and on the you know the one reason is just the NII headwinds you said it should be kind of flyish in the third quarter which and then down some in the fourth quarter and you said the commercial loan demand is a little bit less and utilization is less on the other hand you did this give some specific expense numbers and maybe I guess so the specific question is how long do you expect their eight quarter slots are we done with that you expect that to go and then to what degree to your digital efforts you know your first three slides by four five and six play a part in sustaining this positive offering leverage say through 2024 and 2025 is that a goal is that an expectation.
非常感谢你的一切,我非常欣赏。我们接下来请Wells Fargo的Mike Mayo提问。你好,Mike。早上好。我认为大家对第三季度的看法并不乐观,但是我听到你刚才的开场白中提到你预计连续第八个季度保持积极态势,并期望这种态势会继续下去,所以你是预计持续9个季度还是10个季度,或者尽可能长,对吗?另外,你提到一个原因是因为净利润的不利因素,你说在第三季度这种不利因素应该会逐渐减小,然后在第四季度会下降一些,你还说商业贷款需求有所减少,利用率也有所降低,但与此同时,你提到了一些具体的费用数字,我猜我想问的是你预计这八个季度还能持续多久?然后你们的数字化努力在维持这种积极态势上,特别是在2024年和2025年方面,扮演了什么样的角色?这是一个目标还是期望呢?

Our goal is always to maintain it and Mike you point out that you know the toughest time was when you have sort of a twist in the interest rate environment and you could see that again in the 19 and then we got right back into it right after the environment stabilized but you know I think about the question you asked me a few years ago Mike was you know when NII is coming in you're going to let it fall the bottom line you're going to spend it in about 80 plus percent of it is fall on the bottom line which shows you how we position the franchise from you know the second quarter 21 till now as we went through the interest rate rate you know the fast interest rate raising so we gave it specific as you said the specific expense guides by quarter we expect that should produce operating leverage it'll be it gets tougher and then it will get easier as we start to see the stabilization of deposits and loans and loan growth you'll sort of routinely come through an economy frankly shaking through whether we're going to have a recession or not and so we feel good about what we've done that's why I try to give that longer period of time so people have the context that it's very different environments how we've achieved it sometimes revenue fell and expense fell faster sometimes revenue grew and expense grew but slower and you know all the different ways so we'll keep working at it.
我们的目标始终是维持下去,迈克,你提到过,你知道最困难的时候是在利率环境发生变化时,并且你可以在19年再次看到这种情况,而在环境稳定之后,我们立即重新进入这种状态。但你知道,几年前你问我的问题是,当NII进来时,你会让它下降到底线,你打算将80%以上花在底线上,这表明了我们如何从2021年第二季度开始定位特许经营权,因为我们经历了快速的利率提升,所以我们提供了具体的每个季度的费用指南,我们希望这能产生经营杠杆效应。随着存款和贷款以及贷款增长的稳定,它会变得更加困难,然后会变得更加容易,你会经常经历这样的经济震荡,无论我们是否会陷入衰退。因此,我们对我们所做的感到满意,这就是为什么我试图给出那更长的时间段,让人们了解到背景是非常不同的环境,我们的实现方式有时候收入下降得更快,而费用下降得更快,有时候收入增长得更慢,费用增长得更慢,我在各种不同的方式上努力。我们会继续努力。

McKee leading the cater we like is we've been able to manage the headcount down as Alster said earlier and frankly that is in the face of a turnover rate year over year which is dropped in half which is good because then we're not training and hiring as many people and that then sets us up for the second half of the year because that headcount benefit it's not really comes through the P&L and we'll offset some of the other inflation. And then as it relates to NI specifically you said that the last few months you're a moment more confident given stabilization and pricing I guess we're not seeing that every bank right some bank getting worse some banks getting better so what is it that gives you more confidence on the NI I front and the deposit stabilization price. Well I can't look I can't speak to other banks Mike but obviously we know we're in a privileged and advantaged position relative to our plant base. I just think it's interesting you look at that global banking set of results over the course of the past year and a half in particular that's extraordinary resilience and look Q2 is tax season so you look at the wealth management business for example deposits for down 9 billion but we know they paid tax payments of 14 15 16 billion last quarter so there's beginning to be a little more stability and obviously our focus has always been on transactional primary operating and we may be seeing the benefit of that in some degree but we'll continue we show you on slide I think it was page 12 of the earnings deck that's where it is and we showed that last quarter we showed again next quarter but it's just you know the feds engineering this across the board and we're just reacting to what we see from our customer base.
麦基领导的我们喜欢的部门能够管理员工数量,正如阿尔斯特先前所说的那样,实际上,这是在年复一年的离职率减少一半的情况下。这很好,因为我们不需要培训和招聘那么多的人,这将为下半年做好准备,因为员工数量的减少将在利润和损失表上产生效益,并抵消一些通胀压力。关于NI(净利润)方面,你说过在过去几个月你更加有信心,这是因为我们看到了定价的稳定,我想并非每家银行都有这样的情况,有些银行变得更糟,有些银行变得更好。那么是什么给你更多信心来应对NI方面的问题和存款稳定价格呢?嗯,我不能评论其他银行,迈克,但显然我们相对于我们的竞争对手具有特权和优势。我觉得有趣的是,你看看过去一年半特别是全球银行的业绩,表现出了非凡的韧性,再看看二季度是税收季,所以以财富管理业务为例,存款下降了90亿美元,但我们知道上个季度他们支付了140、150、160亿美元的税款,所以开始出现了一些稳定,显然我们的重点一直是在交易主营业务上,并且可能在某种程度上从中受益,但我们将继续向您展示,在财报的幻灯片上,我想是第12页,上个季度我们展示了,下个季度我们将再次展示,但关键是联邦银行局正在全面推动这个过程,我们只是根据客户群体的需求做出反应。

Okay thank you.
好的,谢谢你。

We'll take our next question from Jim Mitchell with C port global your line is open. Hey good morning maybe just a follow up on deposit behavior I appreciate the comment that you have very low loan to deposit ratio you don't have to chase rates so it feels like betas can stay low but how do you think about how are you thinking about the mix going forward we are seeing and you know NIBs come down CD demand is picking up so how are you thinking of what are you seeing in your deposit base with respect to mix.
我们将从C port global的Jim Mitchell那里提出下一个问题,你可以开始发问了。嗨,早上好,也许只是关于存款行为的后续问题,我很感激你对低贷款存款比率的评论,你不必追逐利率,所以感觉贝塔系数可以保持在低位,但你是如何思考未来的组合及其变化的?我们看到NIBs降低了,CD需求正在增加,那么就存款结构而言,你是如何思考的,你又看到了什么?

I think Jim one of the things that as we think about deposits we think about across each of the customer bases and that's what your page 12 shows you we think about what do they have cashless for that cash to transact and they have cash that's an excess of that and what happens is depending on the customer segment that cash moves to the market that excess cash moves the market but the transactional cash is all with us that transaction cash far exceeds for us our loan balances so we have excess transactional cash and a lot of it is low interest checking no interest checking you know even if it's a money market that's sort of cushion that you know consumers and wealthy people wealthy consumers and average consumers maintain you know to pay their bills and unexpected expenses so that's what you've seen and that produces the cost of deposits of you know 1.24 which is far different than we see other people have and that you can't you know that's just happens another question is how much moves and as Alistair said earlier we're after tax time now where we have a big wealth manager payout to the to the to the you know to taxes we also pass the point where you know people have way past the point of last time there's payments where people will have to that money's been an accounts and still is in their accounts to a large. degree as we as we look at them and they're paying that down slowly to the average balance in our checking accounts has gone from a high of 11,000 to 10,000 you know 600 or 500 or something like that so all that dynamic but you got to go back and say it's the mix of interest bearing and non-trust bearing is actually a little bit of a misnomer because it's really what the customer uses the cash for and if they use it to transact and run their household that's a very stable base and that's what this data shows across time and it's fundamentally a lot higher than pre pandemic so consumers 700 billion pre pandemic a trillion now checking of that if you look on the on the pages in the deposit descriptions you'll see those numbers are page 13 I think it is you know those numbers will show you how much is stayed in checking that's because maybe have more customers but more importantly the average consumer you know through inflation if that has more money around and that provides great risk for the mill. Right so do you feel like that mix shift is starting to slow and stabilize? Well that's what the data on page 12 shows you that's why we show you this level of detail in our customer bases or lines of business that many don't show you to demonstrate that that difference is there for us and you know other people maybe there too I just can't find it in their data but if you look at that's why we show you page 12 CACCC during the second quarter year of the week by week average balance movement and it's as Alistair said earlier you know it's very stable in GWIM it's very stable in Gold Bank and even in non-interest bearing piece half of that is excess balance half of it is earnings credit rate to the GTS process and so you got to be careful that and then you look at the consumer and it's bouncing around the high 900 you know 80 to a trillion dollars depending on the thing and then it is a trillion and you know that happens when payrolls happen all step but that's hugely hugely advantage price 20 odd basis points in total for the consumer business and you ask about CDs we only have 40 billion of CDs so we we are you know we're when our customers are asking for CD rates we give them to it's just not the core business and then we have the investment side we push you know those wealth management flows and the consumer investment flows are part of our deposits moving over to the market when this excess cash right all very helpful thanks a lot.
我觉得吉姆,有一件事情,就是我们考虑到存款的时候,我们会考虑到每个客户群体,你的第12页展示了这一点。我们会思考他们有多少现金可以进行交易,以及超出这个交易现金的多少现金。根据客户群体的不同,这些多余的现金会流向市场,但交易现金全部都与我们有关。对我们来说,交易现金远远超过我们的贷款余额,所以我们存在着多余的交易现金,其中很大一部分是低利息的支票账户或无利息的支票账户,甚至可能是货币市场基金。这是一种消费者和富人以及普通消费者维持的保障,用于支付账单和意外开支。这就是你看到的情况,并且这会导致存款成本为1.24%,这与其他人相比有很大的不同。你无法控制这种情况,另一个问题是有多少资金在流动。正如Alistair早些时候所说,现在我们已经过了纳税时间,我们要支付给财富管理师很多钱,而且大家已经超过了上次支付账单的时间点,这些钱一直存在于他们的账户中。随着时间的推移,他们慢慢地还这些款项,所以我们的支票账户的平均余额从最高的11,000美元下降到了10,600或者10,500美元。所有这些动态都要回到一个关键点,即有息和无息的混合实际上有一点误导,因为真正的关键是客户用这些现金做什么,如果他们用于交易和家庭开支,那就是一个非常稳定的基础,这就是这份数据所显示的,而且基础明显高于疫情前。消费者在疫情前是7000亿美元,现在是1万亿美元,如果你在存款描述的页面上看,你会看到这些数字,第13页,你会看到仍然存在于支票账户中的资金数量,这可能是因为我们有更多的客户,但更重要的是,通过通货膨胀,普通消费者的资金周围更多了,这给费用产生了巨大的风险。那么你觉得这种混合转变是否开始减缓和稳定了呢?嗯,第12页的数据就是在告诉你这一点,这也是我们为什么在我们的客户基础或业务线中展示这么详细的数据,而其他公司可能没有展示出来的原因,这是向你证明我们之间的差异存在,并且其他人也可能存在,只是我在他们的数据中找不到。如果你看看我们在第二季度每周平均余额的变动,正如Alistair之前所说,你会发现在GWIM方面非常稳定,在Gold Bank方面也非常稳定,甚至在无息部分,一半是多余的余额,另一半是利息信用率给GTS流程,所以你必须小心,然后再看看消费者,它在高达990亿到1万亿美元之间反弹,这取决于情况。那时候的工资支付的情况,这在消费者业务中非常有利,总计有20多个基点,至于你问CDs方面的情况,我们只有400亿美元的CDs,所以当我们的客户要求CD利率时,我们会给予,但这不是核心业务,另外我们还有投资方面的资金流动,我们推动着财富管理流入和消费者投资流入,这些都是我们存款转移到市场上的一部分的多余现金,非常有帮助,非常感谢。

We'll go next to Chris Katowski with Oppenheimer your line is open. Yeah good morning and thanks for taking the question in in the press release for last week's settlement would be a CFDB director Chopra alleged that you among other things open customer accounts without consent and I'm just wondering how is such a thing possible in the post Wells Fargo era and and can you compare and contrast you know what what happened with at your firm with what happened at Wells.
接下来我们将转去Oppenheimer的Chris Katowski。你可以开口了。早上好,感谢您回答我的问题。上周解决方案的新闻稿中,CFDB的主管Chopra指控您等人在未经同意的情况下开设客户账户,我想知道在维尔斯·法戈事件后,这样的事情怎么可能发生?您能否比较和对比一下您公司所发生的情况和维尔斯·法戈事件发生的情况?

Quite frankly Chris it when we went all through the horizontal review by the OCC and all the practices and everything were changed then and these these the small number accounts that are part of this are from that time period it just did not the other agencies you did anything and then the consumer bureau had to sit it sitting around me kind of cleaned it up this quarter so that was that was that was the time period of reflects which time period it reflects up to the current time but the accounts were from you know 60 16 and before 17 back when remember the control occurred the curry did the three phase review of all their firms and they didn't find you know they can go look at the data and then all the way up the next controller testified in Congress and you know started to bomb administration after Wells and then led into the early part of the Trump administration without a controller hiding and you can go look at that was cleared up and we made the changes in those processes at that time.
坦率地说,克里斯,在我们经历了监管部门(OCC)的全面横评以及所有的规定和一切都发生了变化后,这些账户的数量只是从那个时期而已,并没有其他机构来处理这些问题,只有消费者局在这个季度处理了它,所以这个时间段反映到现在,但这些账户是在2016年之前,17年之后的时间,当时控制层出现问题,库里对所有公司进行了三个阶段的审查,没有发现任何问题,并且在下一任控制层在国会作证后,你可以去看看特朗普政府早期发生的事情,没有人在掩盖,我们在那个时间做出了这些改变。

Okay thank you that's it for me. We'll go next to Erica Najarian with UBS your line is open. Hi Erica you let me unmute. Dr. Maybe we can come back to Erica. Absolutely we'll go next to Betsy Gracek with Morgan Stanley your line is open. Hi good morning. One Betsy. A couple questions one on operating leverage that I know you discussed earlier I mean in the past when you had the record number of consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage it seemed like it was being driven primarily a lot of inputs but one of the big drivers was consolidation of branches and now it's an investment spend environment in branches so I'm just wondering if there is if you would agree with that and if there's a different way that you're going to be delivering this positive operating leverage as you're increasing investment spend in one of the you know core platforms of the company.
好的,谢谢你,我就此结束了。接下来我们请UBS的Erica Najarian发言。嗨,Erica,请问可以解除我的静音吗?也许我们稍后可以回到Erica那里。当然,接下来请Morgan Stanley的Betsy Gracek发言。嗨,早上好。有几个问题想问,关于经营杠杆,我知道你之前提到过,在之前连续几个季度实现正面的经营杠杆时,主要是受到很多投入因素的推动,但其中一个重要因素是分支机构的整合,而现在是一个投资支出的环境,所以我想知道你是否同意这一点,以及在公司核心平台的投资支出增加时,你将如何实现这种正面的经营杠杆。

Betsy, that's kind of what I said earlier. It's been gotten by different ways, different periods of time. But even in the last year, the numbers of branches I dropped over from thirty-nine hundred to thirty-eight hundred and change. And so even as we deployed new ones and so your consulting branches in markets you've been in a long time with lots of branches. You know the ATM count continues to drift down, but importantly if you go to the digital pages and look at the activity levels by customers, and you're speaking mostly to consumer business but affects all customer basis. And you see things like you know Zell transactions far exceeding checks. Remember that what that means is we don't have to process a check on the back end of that and so and then you process it push it through so all that continues to grow very quickly and continues to change the overall operating costs in our consumer business. Your cost of operating it plus the cost of pays and deposits is still 130 odd basis points or whatever it's very strong if you go where the big moves are coming is what we’re doing in the markets business. For example, in terms of deeper digitization, there was always you know equitrating was always digitized but the operational process behind that, the throughput of the amount of stuff that's going straight through, and then what's behind that also in the wealth management's customers getting their statements. You know, in statements not being delivered to customers home but delivered at Conne's a half million dollars in you know benefit that's accumulated over time. And so, if there were some magic you think you could pull you know you pull it, but these are a whole bunch of operational access ideas it seems inchmeal to the general public but it just is constant improvement. The platform allows this constantly managed people down as a percent, you know as a percentage of work done by people always comes down. And then how with artificial intelligence and all enthusiasm leave aside that's in the future the way we've applied it so far has enabled us to do things like our business bankers are more efficient at calling because we use artificial intelligence and programs to tell them which prospects to go to not to tell that they have no other clients and they run it but which prospects they should approach first so they're more efficient or the advisor match which you know has an intelligence based bill into to match the client to an advisor that's you know you saw the statistics about the numbers of leads twenty thousand leads you know all this is adding efficiency so yes the brand system it got you know if you come it's come down a slope and that slope is starting to flatten out but in that slope is a massive reinvestment in rehabs and a massive opening and then more and more deposits over top of that which keeps that efficiency going so your point on enthusiasm for AI but in your in your comments it sounds like there's more like to that that you're anticipating going forward as well as that there yeah it Erica. We started working on probably eight years ago now it's a natural language processing capability that could answer questions that we can make sure the answer was what we wanted it to be in every. And on our proprietary systems and so it's an algorithmic you know that it anticipates the answer the question but it comes from our data and then looks in your account but those 165 million interactions in the last quarter all of them would have been an email a text a phone call and they were all done you know through the customer entering it into Erica and getting an answer and then going on and and you know started. But that will just keep expanding to become a higher and higher functionality. It is a you know start at a methodology which you know these new programs are far in excess of that but they're not tested on data they hallucinate and all these wonderful things that you hear the experts talk about that have to be carefully controlled before you apply. But Erica is using some of the same principles that apply in a very controlled environment and by the way when we do it with our drafting a CEO credit offer memoranda or we do it with a business of targeting that we talked about. You know all those are ways that we apply but it's a very controlled setting so it's a lot more out there frankly as it gets understood better and how it works better and how it can be at attribution accountability those types of things have to build on but Erica that was built in from the start.
贝兹,这与我之前所说的有些类似。银行的发展路径各不相同,时间也不同,但即使在过去一年里,我们的分行数量也从3900多家下降到3800多家。所以即使我们在新市场和拥有大量分行的市场开设新的分行,你会发现自动取款机数量继续下降,但更重要的是,如果你去了解数字业务页面并关注客户的活跃水平,尤其是针对消费者业务,但对所有客户群体都有影响。你会发现Zell交易远远超过支票交易。记住这意味着我们无需在后台处理支票,而是直接进行处理,所有这些都在快速增长,并不断改变我们消费者业务的运营成本。你运营它的成本,加上支付成本和存款成本,仍然是非常强劲的,如果你看大趋势,那就是我们在市场业务中所做的。例如,在更深度数字化方面,建立Equitrating模型时,数字化是一直存在的,但是背后的业务流程,以及通过这种模型进行的处理量,以及为财富管理客户提供报表的背后的操作都得到了改善。这意味着我们不再将报表送至客户家中,而是在Conne递送报表,这样可以节约很多成本。所以,如果有一些你认为可以改进的魔法,你可以推动它,但这些都是一系列的操作性改进,对大众来说可能看起来渐进,但这只是不断的提高。我们的平台允许不断地在人员比例上进行调整,工作由人员完成的比例始终在下降。而且,目前我们已经运用人工智能等技术,使得我们的业务银行家拨打电话更加高效,因为我们使用人工智能和程序告诉他们应该先联系哪些潜在客户,而不是告诉他们他们没有其他客户。还有顾问匹配,可以根据情报智能匹配客户和顾问,你知道,关于潜在客户数量的统计数据也表明,这些措施都在提高效率。因此,是的,分行系统发展速度放缓了,但在这个过程中,我们相当大程度上进行了重新投资和装修,并且不断有更多的存款进入,这使得效率保持稳定。你在人工智能方面谈到的热情,以及你之后提到的一些预期,确实意味着你认为未来会有更多的发展,是这样吗?是的,埃里卡。我们大约八年前开始研究这一领域,我们开发了一种可以回答问题的自然语言处理功能,以确保我们得到的答案符合我们的期望,并且这一功能是建立在我们自己的系统上的。所以它是基于算法的,可以预测问题的答案,但答案来自于我们的数据,然后查看你的账户。在上个季度有1.65亿次互动中,所有的互动都是通过客户输入问题,从埃里卡得到答案,然后继续进行的,无论是电子邮件、短信还是电话。但这种功能将会不断扩展,提供更高级的功能。它开始时只是一种方法论,这些新程序的功能要远远超出它,但它们没有依赖数据进行测试,而是产生幻觉,就像你听到专家们谈论的那些美好事物,必须在应用之前进行仔细控制。但埃里卡使用了一些相同的原则,它是在一个非常受控制的环境中构建的。顺便说一下,当我们用它来起草CEO信贷报告书或者进行商业定向时,我们都是在控制的环境中使用的,所以在它被更好地理解、工作方式更好地掌握、以及在属性归因和责任问题上建立之前,它还有很多要发展和改进的地方,但埃里卡从一开始就有这些功能。

Paragraph 1: Okay thanks and then just one follow up on the capital question. I know that you are you know reviewing the SCB with the fed but I'm just you know trying to understand what kind of expectations you have for buybacks as we look forward here realizing that you know there's some puts and takes with battle three but you know there's some benefits here with the SCB thanks. Yeah so we got the final stress capital buffer along with the rest of the industry in August. so we'll wait for that obviously and then that's I think we'll likely have to wait for Basel 3 final clarity that's still you know moving it said we don't have to propose rule yet then we have to wait for the comment period then we got to wait for the final rule so there's a lot that needs one before we get full perspective but I think Brian said it well I mean we've got plenty of capital we've been buying back enough shares to offset the share dilution and we got flexibility to do a little bit more so the other thing that you see over the course of the past year is obviously stress capital buffer last year and we had to add 90 basis points well we've added 110 over the course of the past year and kept return intentional coming equity around 15.5% while buying back shares so we've got the flexibility to do a little bit of everything but I think we want to see what the final rules look like before we make too many decisions.
好的,谢谢。然后关于资本问题,我知道你正在与美联储进行SCB的审查,但我只是想了解在展望未来时你对回购的期望是什么,因为我们都知道关于巴塞尔三有一些利弊,但SCB也有一些好处,谢谢。是的,我们在8月份与整个行业一起获得了最终的压力测试资本缓冲要求。所以我们显然要等一等,然后我认为我们可能还需要等待巴塞尔三的最终明确,那个还在移动,我们还没有提出规则草案,然后我们需要等待评论期,再等待最终规则的出台,所以在我们获得全面的视角之前还需要很多工作,但我认为布莱恩说得很好,我们有足够的资本,我们一直在回购足够的股份以抵消股份稀释,并且我们有灵活性进行更多回购。过去一年中,我们还故意增加了90个基点的压力测试资本缓冲要求,而在回购股份的同时保持了大约15.5%的股权回报率。所以我们有灵活性可以做一些其他事情,但在我们做出太多决定之前,我认为我们还是要等待最终的规则出台。

Paragraph 2: Yeah all right thank you. We'll go next to Ken Houston with Jeffries your line is open. Good morning Ken. Good morning just one question on credit to follow up your comments so it looks like the card normalization is progressing very gradually 90 day past years but only kind of marginally. Just your points about the consumer having still plenty of cash the economy holding up well just your view on just ongoing normalization of card losses specifically and just anything else that we should be mindful of when we think about credit normalization thank you. Ken I think you nailed it that's sort of been you just you watch our you know if you look at our charge offs for example that's mainly about loan growth and a little bit about the rate picking up just a little bit but it's still well below pandemic you can see that and fourth quarter 19 was a great quarter for asset quality and cards so it gets back to this idea that the consumer still in a pretty healthy place you can see that in unemployment statistics and you can see it in the way that they're just continuing to spend a little bit more money year over year so you know I feel like they've been pretty consistent the consumers pretty resilient that remains the case and we're benefiting it from right now and the card experience.
是的,好的,谢谢你。我们接下来找Ken Houston与Jeffries,你可以讲了。早上好,Ken。早上好,只有一个问题关于信用卡正常化的跟进,看起来逐渐过去90天的逾期贷款仅有一点点。你提到消费者仍然有很多现金,经济表现良好,你对信用卡亏损的持续正常化以及我们在考虑信用卡正常化时需要注意的其他方面有何看法,谢谢。Ken,我认为你说得很对,你刚才观察到的是事实。如果你看看我们的坏账率,主要是与贷款增长有关,还有一点点与利率有关,但仍然远低于疫情爆发前的水平,你可以看到这一点。2019年第四季度是信用卡资产质量的一个很好的季度,所以可以得出结论,消费者的财务状况仍然相当良好,你可以从失业统计数据中看出这一点,也可以从他们年复一年继续增加的消费金额中看出。所以,我认为消费者一直相当持久,这种情况仍然存在,我们目前从中受益,这也表现在信用卡使用体验中。

Paragraph 3: And thanks and so just one more follow up on the B side can you help us understand you know the card that's the positive service charges asset management kind of all been stable to slightly lower have the effects that you put through in terms of all the service charges changes and new rewards type of card benefits and all that are we close to getting that run rated any signals of stability in some of those areas. So as Alistair mentioned earlier there's been a 10 year change in how we worked in the overdraft area and the biggest in another set of changes were made and fully implemented in the third quarter of last year so you're in the current run rate it's just a year of year comparisons this quarter picks up a little bit of pre-final changes to post so if you look at the FDIC data I think we're down to $30 million a quarter or something like that and overdraft fees compared to others there are multiples of that but we've it's all through the system it's all done and all the changes required of under the recent announcements and stuff that have been made for a couple years so that it's in the run rate so to speak.
第三段:所以,关于B方面的问题,你能帮我们解释一下吗?就是那个涉及正面服务费用、资产管理的卡片,效果一直保持稳定或略有下降。在服务费用的变动、新的奖励类型的卡片福利等方面,您对这些变化产生的影响有所了解吗?我们是否接近达到预期的稳定信号?正如阿利斯泰尔之前提到的,我们在透支领域的工作方式发生了10年的变化,而在去年第三季度还进行了一系列增补的变化,并且已经全面实施。所以在当前的经营水平上,只是进行了年度比较,本季度稍微引入了一些前期与后期的变化。如果你查看FDIC的数据,我想我们每个季度的透支费用已经下降到3000万美元左右,与其他银行相比还要高出几倍,但我们已经将其全部融入到系统中,并根据最近的公告和一些年内所作出的变化进行了一些必要的调整,所以可以说已经达到了预期的经营水平。

Paragraph 4: Great thanks a lot got it. As a reminder that is star and one for your questions we'll go next to Charles Peabody with Portalis your line is open. Good morning. A question about your interest in bearing deposits with the fed and I'm looking at page 8 your average balance sheet and those balances were quite considerably quarter over quarter and yet your deposit base was relatively flat so I'm just curious what the thinking behind that was was it a desire to build liquidity was there an arbitrage opportunity for NII what was why build the balances so aggressively. So if you go back to we talked about this at the end of last quarter Charles at the end of last quarter was an interesting time for the industry and we felt like it was prudent to just build cash during a period like that and so that's what we did and it said it was obviously an extraordinary period since then as the environment is normalizing I had anticipated and I talked about that earlier you'll see our cash levels just continue to come back down and so that's all that's happening was a choice on our part to position with cash and you'll begin to see that drift lower now.
非常感谢,我知道了。作为一个提醒,星星代表提问,我接下来请Charles Peabody上台,你可以发言了。早上好。我有一个关于你们在联邦储备银行存款方面兴趣的问题,我看到在第8页上,你们的平均资产负债表的余额季度间出现了相当大的变化,然而你们的存款基础相对平稳,所以我很好奇的是背后的思考是什么,是想要增加流动性,还是有NII套汇的机会,为什么会如此积极地增加余额。所以如果回顾上个季度的情况,Charles,我们在上个季度末谈到过这个问题,那个时候是整个行业一个有趣的时刻,我们认为在这样的时期建立现金是很谨慎的选择,所以我们就这么做了。当然,那是一个非常特殊的时期,随着环境的正常化,我之前已经预料到并谈到过,你将会看到我们的现金水平继续下降,所以那就是正在发生的事情,我们选择了利用现金,现在你将会看到它逐渐减少。

Paragraph 1: Okay and the follow up and would that imply that the average balance sheet or more importantly our WA's will start to shrink and that would help your capital and just understand the capital. No it shouldn't really impact our WA's because most of that is sort of low or zero RWA what it should impact is if you look at our net interest yield that's always a question of numerator and denominator and when we increased the cash balances that inflates the denominator for a period of time. So that doesn't hurt NII but it does inflate your balance sheet just a little bit so I think as you look forward to what you should expect is we just get back to work on both parts of that numerator and denominator will grind away at the NII side and then on the denominator side we'll have a smaller more efficient balance sheet as the environment normalizes and in the meantime it hasn't hurt NII in any way.
好的,跟进一下,这是否意味着平均资产负债表或者更重要的是我们的平均权重资产(WA)会开始收缩,这对您的资本有所帮助,并且希望理解一下资本状况。不会对 WA 产生太大影响,因为其中大部分是低风险资产或者零风险资产。它所带来的影响应该是在净利差率方面,这始终是分子和分母的问题,当我们增加现金余额时,会暂时膨胀分母。因此,这不会对净利差率造成伤害,但会略微增加您的资产负债表,所以我认为,如果您展望未来,我们将会在分子和分母两个方面努力,不断推动净利差率的发展,并且在分母方面,随着环境的正常化,我们将拥有一个更小、更高效的资产负债表,而在此期间,这并不会对净利差率造成任何伤害。

Paragraph 2: Thank you. Welcome to Erica Najarian with UBS your line is open. Hi good morning I'm sorry I missed the earlier call. On the net interest income trajectory Alistair clearly a big focus for your shareholders you mentioned when you were responding to Gerard's first question is that you narrowed the volatility of net interest income and I think that you know investors are I'm sure I'm going to start asking you guys and us about the starting point of 14 billion for NII next year. I guess we're wondering you know if the Fed stays higher for longer doesn't move you know how does that impact that 14 billion run rate. But does that 14 billion capture you know a cumulative deposit beta that would sort of fully reflect what you would expect experience through the cycle and then I have a follow up question from there.
谢谢。欢迎来到瑞银UBS,Erica Najarian,您可以发言了。早上好,非常抱歉我错过了之前的通话。关于净利息收入轨迹,艾利斯泰尔,明显是股东的一个重要关注点,你在回答乔治的第一个问题时提到的是你已经减少了净利息收入的波动性,我想投资者们肯定会开始询问你们和我们明年净利息收入起始点140亿美元的情况。我猜想我们想知道的是,如果美联储维持较长时间的高利率政策,不调整利率,那么这将对这个140亿美元的运营速度产生何种影响。但这个140亿美元是否包含了累积存款费率,能够完全反映出整个周期您所预计的经验经历,然后我还有一个问题需要追问。

Paragraph 3: Well all of our asset disclosures reflect the betas that we believe at the time so that part's always in the disclosures. It's too early for me to say on 2024 we're giving guidance for the rest of the year so you have a pretty good sense of what we're pretty confident around but last time I looked at the forward curve we had one possibly two hikes this year and then as many as five declines next year so there's a lot between here and there and I think we'll just as just as soon take the next three to six months to figure out Erica exactly how we feel about 24.
第三段:我们所有的资产披露都反映了我们当时相信的贝塔值,这部分总是在披露中。对于2024年的情况,现在我还不能做出判断,因为我们只对今年剩下的时间给出了指导,所以你可以对我们相当有信心,但我上次看到的前瞻曲线显示,今年可能会有一到两次加息,明年可能会有多达五次下调,所以在那个时候和现在之间有很多的变数,我认为我们会花三到六个月的时间来确切地确定我们对2024年的感觉。

Paragraph 4: Totally understand so going back to the down 100 you know down 100 basis point disclosure that would yield to down three billion for a full year basis how much of that you know given that you you have exposure to the shape of the curve not just a short end of the curve because of your securities book how much of that is short rates versus long rates in terms of that drop. I guess what I'm trying to figure out is if I you know simply divide divide you know three billion by four right that would get me a run rate of you know 13.25 billion on a quarterly basis and you mentioned that there are about five cuts in next year but if it's not all the short end right and if it's half half then I could get to a run rate of 13.75 billion so just you know I know there's a lot in there so it wouldn't just love your thoughts on everything I just said.
第四段:我完全理解所以回到前100个基点的降息,那将导致全年基础下滑30亿,考虑到你们对曲线形状的敞口,而不仅仅是曲线的短端,因为你们的证券账户,这种下滑中有多少是短期利率和长期利率的比例?我想弄清楚的是,如果我将30亿除以四,就能得到每季度132.5亿的增长率,而你提到明年将有大约5次降息,但如果不仅仅是短期利率,并且比例是五五开,那么增长率可能达到137.5亿,这只是我的一些想法,我想知道你对我刚才说的一切的想法。

Paragraph 5: You lost me a little but I'll say this we've got it's actually down 3.6 billion it's not done for you doing it so that's number one. Number two you should think about the short end being the vast majority of that and number three part of the reason that I think we feel like we've narrowed this corridor and we've got a little more stability around it is A the securities book and B just as importantly there's been a large rotation into interest bearing and so as rates you know in a disclosure like this as rates come down one would one would expect that will be somewhat insulated from that in a different way than we might have two years ago when we didn't have as much interest bearing.
第五段:你的话有点难懂,但我想说的是我们实际上资产减少了36亿美元,这并不是你的错,这是第一点。第二点是,你应该考虑到大部分资产是短期的,第三点,我认为我们感觉狭窄的走廊已经变窄了,我们在其中获得了更多的稳定性,原因在于A证券账簿和B同样重要的是,大量资产已经转到了利息收入上,所以随着利率的下降,与两年前相比,我们在某种程度上能更好地抵御利率下降带来的影响,因为我们拥有更多的利息收入。

Paragraph 6: Understood thank you. We'll take a follow up from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo please go ahead your line is open. Hey I just keep staring at slides four five and six for the digital progress that you're making and trying to connect that to your expenses and operating leverage and I guess where I get to is certainly you're signaling that trend should be good for revenue versus expense or at least you're trying to have that but I still look at the efficiency ratio of expenses for revenues of 64% or 62% and then you compare that to the levels from 2018 and 2019 when it was 57 and 58% so I guess the question is do you guys with all these digital initiatives and progress and again I appreciate the disclosure on these slides that and it'd be great to have more of your peers disclose that. It's all that progress why can't you get back to levels from 18 and 19 or at least below 60% and so how long would it take. Mike the link of Joe the digital activity to produce the many quarters of operating leverage at the last eight and a half years etc. is an absolute tie in and that's about the branch count and all the things that we've done.
明白了,非常感谢。接下来我们听取来自富国银行的迈克·梅约的追问,请说,您可以发言了。嘿,我一直在盯着你们在数字化进展方面在第四、五、六张幻灯片上的内容,试图将其与你们的开支和运营杠杆相连接,我猜到的结果是,你们肯定在暗示这种趋势对于收入与开支来说应该是有利的,或者至少你们在努力实现这一点,但我仍然看到费用与收入的效率比率为64%或62%,而与2018年和2019年的水平相比,当时的比率分别为57%和58%,所以我的问题是,你们通过所有这些数字化计划和进展,为什么不能回到18年和19年的水平,或者至少降至60%以下,需要多久才能实现。迈克,乔的数字活动与过去八年半的运营杠杆的长短存在着绝对的联系,这与分支机构数量和我们所做的一切有关。

Paragraph 1: The efficiency ratio for us is has a plain element which is the wealth management business is a big part of our revenue base and has a different operating dynamic because of how it's reported as you well know that the revenue has a cost of compensation percent of revenue is high and we basically make 50 cents on the dollar for every dollar pass the revenue take out which the advisor compensation level and we'll continue to try to improve that and make the advisor more efficient and things like that but that's a major change.
我们的效率比率有一个明显的因素,那就是财富管理业务是我们收入基础的重要组成部分,并且由于报告方式不同,其运营动态也有所不同。你很清楚,由于报酬占收入的比例很高,我们基本上每赚到一美元,就要支付给顾问一半的报酬,我们将继续努力改善这种情况,提高顾问的效率等方面的事情,但这是一个重大的改变。

Paragraph 2: We'll improve year over year and frankly we're still cleaning out some dynamic related costs and things like that so we'll continue to drive that down and as net interest income has come up and be a more important part of the business that helps push that efficiency ratio back down and that's the goal. I mean you're describing what we go to work and do every day and the way we do it is the application of technology across the board and then removing work from the system and bringing that out and bringing it to the bottom line and then making the investments we did to make it happen again so we'll continue to do that but the efficiency ratio member for us to go line of business line of business is best in class it's just we have a bigger mix towards the wealth management business than most other people.
我们会逐年改进,坦白说,我们仍在清理一些与业务动态相关的成本和其他方面,因此我们将继续降低成本。随着净利息收入的增加,它成为业务中更重要的部分,有助于推动效率比率下降,这就是我们的目标。我的意思是,你正在描述我们每天工作的方式,我们所做的是在全局范围内应用技术,然后从系统中剥离工作并使其转化为收益,并再次进行投资,以实现这一目标。因此,我们将继续这样做,但对于我们不同业务线的效率比率来说,我们是最佳的,只是我们对财富管理业务的组合比大多数其他人更大。

Paragraph 3: Let me just try one more time on the Erica and you know it's going to be Bank America AI maybe you've spent out your Erica business but you guys highlight a number of hours it saves in manual labor and do you have a connection of that to what that saves in expenses or what that could save or should save over the next few years? It'll continue to allow us to do more with the same amount so if you think about from 19 and out Mike remember the number of customers who do their core checklists is up 10 percent you know so it's not up and that is a lot of people it's 3 million more customers doing the 2030 transactions a month and all that's going through on a relatively flat expense base and we've been you know we've had the inflation and wages and things we've absorbed all that as part of the thing and that's that's that's that's what it costs to change but you know the route is we flat map back out and then we'll keep driving it back down and if you look at the cost of the positives which is the cost of running all that as a percentage of posits you know you can see that on a consumer page it still maintains a nice break against the rate they would receive for their deposit balances so we're working at you know simply put we had a hundred thousand people in the consumer business a decade plus ago we now have you know 60 and going and it comes down a little bit every quarter even though we're putting you know new branches with an average of five to ten people and depending on the location and things like that going on and so that just keeps going in the right direction now if you take that across other things you know in our operations group the team there continues to have flathead count the downhead count and we've invested back in the technology side for more developers you know twenty-odd thousand on our payroll plus another ten or fifteen or third parties that go through frankly the top lines and so we keep trying to drive it in to make us more efficient so all the principles you're saying is right and we expect it to continue to have a benefit.
让我再试一次,关于爱瑞卡,你知道它将成为美国银行的人工智能,也许你们已经开展了爱瑞卡的业务,但你们强调了它在节省手工劳动方面所带来的时间,你们是否能将它与节省的费用联系起来,或者在未来几年内应该节省的费用?它将继续让我们以同样的工作量做更多的事情,所以如果你们回想起从2019年开始,Mike记得那时核对核心日常事务的客户数量增加了10%。这不仅仅是相当大的人数,而是多了300万客户每月进行的2030项交易,而所有这些都在相对稳定的费用基础上进行,我们已经吸收了通胀和工资等因素,这是成本变化的代价,但你知道我们的路线是平铺直叙然后继续压低成本,如果你观察成本增加对于存款的比率,你会看到在消费者方面它仍然保持着与他们存款余额的利率之间的良好差距,所以我们在努力简单来说,十几年前我们的消费者业务有十万人,现在只有60万人,并且每个季度都在减少,即使我们正在开设新的分支机构,每个分支平均有五到十名员工,根据地点的不同而有所变化,所以这个趋势一直朝着正确的方向发展。现在如果你将这种情况扩展到其他方面,我们的运营团队仍然保持着稳定的员工数量,而我们在技术方面投资了更多的开发人员,我们有二万多名员工,再加上其他十到十五名第三方,实际上这些是我们的主要收入来源,所以我们持续努力使自己更加高效,所以你说的原则都是正确的,并且我们预计它将继续带来好处。

Paragraph 4: All right thank you. There are no further questions and Q at this time I'd like to turn the program back over to Brian Moynihan for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you and for joining us all. Number as you think about the quarter you know strong profitability strong at fifteen percent return on tangible common equity or better continue to drive organic growth continue to drive operating leverage and you know we gave you clarity on the future path of expenses in NII but above all else in the quarter where we've had a strong capra market performance and a strong investment bank in performance I think along with our other usual great performance is business and we feel good about the company as a position going forward.
好的,谢谢你。目前没有更多问题和疑问了,现在我想把节目交回给布莱恩·莫耐汉,他可以进行任何额外的总结和结束语。感谢你的加入和陪伴。当你考虑这个季度时,我们的盈利能力很强,有15%以上的有形共同股权回报率,我们继续推动有机增长和运营杠杆增长,我们已经为你明确了未来的费用和利息净额的路径,但是最重要的是,在这个季度,我们在资本市场和投资银行方面取得了强劲的成绩,除此之外,我们的其他业务也一如既往地表现出色,我们对公司的前景感到乐观。

Paragraph 5: Thank you. This has concluded a program thank you for your participation you may disconnect at any time.
谢谢。这个节目已经结束了,感谢您的参与,您可以随时断开连接。