Be Prepared for Tesla’s Earnings Report (Q2-23)

Hey everybody Rob Maurer here and today we are going to be going through Tesla's Q2 earnings report. What to expect for Tesla's Q2 earnings report rather. We'll go through the actual report tomorrow. For audio listeners probably better on YouTube since we'll have some numbers up here and we just have a couple other quick items to start with. So looking at the stock today, Tesla up 1% to close at $293.34 heading into earnings tomorrow. The NASDAQ up 3.0% on the day today.

大家好，我是Rob Maurer。今天我们将浏览特斯拉的第二季度财报，或者说我们将预测特斯拉的第二季度财报。明天我们将仔细分析真实财报。至于声音收听者，最好去YouTube，因为我们会提供一些数字，并且我们还有一些其他快讯要先说。所以今天看特斯拉的股票，上涨了1%，收盘价是293.34美元。纳斯达克指数今天上涨了3.0%。

Alright, the quick news before we get into earnings discussion. This is the Giga Berlin expansion plans. The permits for these which will be published tomorrow. A little bit of this has leaked out already. So to buy us land on Twitter here sharing a little bit of what we should expect tomorrow. Which is a permit for a brand new building here to the north of the factory. It looks like this is going to be a square 700 by 700 meter building apparently. So we don't know a whole lot yet. Well, I guess we do. We don't know a whole lot new from this information here. We'll learn more tomorrow, but interesting to see some of the site plans that should bring Giga Berlin to a production capacity eventually of 1 million vehicles per year. So I did want to point that out quick.

好的，在我们讨论收益之前，先简单介绍一下最新快讯。这是关于Giga Berlin扩建计划的消息。这些许可证将在明天发布。有少量信息已经泄露出来。因此，通过Twitter购买土地的这里，分享了一些我们明天应该期待的内容。即在工厂的北部建设一座全新的建筑物。据说这座建筑物的面积将为700x700米。所以我们还不太了解。嗯，我猜我们确实还不太了解。我们明天会了解更多，但有意思的是，这些场地规划将最终使Giga Berlin的产能达到每年100万辆车。所以我想快速指出这一点。

And then before we even talk about any of the earnings numbers, as I say each quarter, the purpose of doing this is to help us contextualize things when we go into earnings. And I think the biggest context that we can provide is that this is just one quarter like we talked about after Q1 earnings last time. This is when Tesla reports earnings, the reason that people care about Tesla's earnings reports at those periods of time is because of how they extrapolate into the future, which causes people to tend to overreact a little bit to how margins look. We really have to remember that right now Tesla is building two new factories ramping up two new factories with Giga Berlin and Giga Texas. And they're also ramping up battery cell production for the first time. So these are things that are going to be impacting and are currently impacting Tesla's margins that are dragging them down and probably not fully considered when people are extrapolating from sort of the level that Tesla is at today. So whether Tesla makes $4 billion, $3 billion this quarter, whatever it is, it really doesn't matter for a $900 billion company.

然后，在我们谈论任何收益数字之前，正如我每个季度所说的，做这个的目的是为了帮助我们在进入财报时提供一些背景信息。我认为我们能提供的最重要的背景是，正如上次Q1财报后我们讨论过的，这只是一个季度而已。当特斯拉报告财报时，人们之所以关心特斯拉的财报，是因为它们对未来的推演，这导致人们对利润率的看法往往过于反应。我们必须记住，特斯拉目前正在建设两个新工厂，Giga Berlin和Giga Texas，并且首次加大电池产量。所以这些因素将影响并且目前正在影响特斯拉的利润率，这些因素在人们从特斯拉当前的水平进行推演时可能未被充分考虑。所以无论特斯拉本季度赚得是40亿还是30亿，都不重要对于一个市值9000亿美元的公司来说。

The only reason it matters is because of that extrapolation into the future. So I would recommend going back and listening to the episode that I published right after earnings last time around because I think that's going to give good context as we head into this earnings report as well. So just wanted to kind of start there, but we'll hop into expectations in terms of the financials here as well. Give me one second to flip over. As we normally do, we've got the trailing 12 months of actuals on the left. And then I've got my forecast and analyst consensus forecast here on the right. You can see the year over year change for what my forecast would end up being. And then what my estimates are versus the analyst consensus. So we're just going to kind of go through and then highlight any key points to keep an eye on as we approach the earnings report tomorrow.

唯一重要的原因在于对未来的推断。所以我建议回顾一下我在上次财报发布后发布的那一期节目，因为我认为这将为我们进入这个财报提供良好的背景。所以我只是想从这里开始，但我们将在这里讨论财务方面的预期。给我一秒钟转到下一页。正如我们通常做的那样，左侧是过去12个月的实际数据。然后右侧是我对未来数据的预测和分析师的共识预测。您可以看到我预测的同比变化以及我预测与分析师共识的差异。所以我们将逐步进行，并强调明天发布财报时需要关注的重点。

Alright. So top line, obviously deliveries, we already know 466,140 in the past. This used to change a little bit, but Tesla seems to have locked that in where it just actualizes now the same as the PND report. The analyst consensus. This is the average analyst consensus. So it's a compilation, just an average of about 20 plus different estimates. For some reasons, 465,000. The only reason I'm showing that is because it shows that maybe the other numbers haven't quite been updated for all analysts that are included in this consensus or just not updated to match the actual delivery result that we got from Tesla. So could be suppressing these numbers when we look at the average a little bit. So nevertheless, I'm slightly above, I guess, analyst consensus on that. We'll see how those come in.

好的。首先，当然是交付量，我们已经知道之前是466,140台。这个数字过去会有些变动，但是特斯拉似乎已经将其锁定，现在的交付结果与PND报告相同。这是分析师共识。这是平均分析师共识。所以这只是大约20多个不同估计的平均值。出于某些原因，估计为465,000。我之所以展示这个数字，是因为它显示出其他数字可能没有完全更新，以适应包括在共识中的所有分析师的实际交付结果。因此，当我们看平均值时，可能会对这些数字进行一些扼制。尽管如此，我对此略高于分析师共识。我们将看看实际情况如何。

And then for energy storage, I'm at about 4.7 gigawatt hours or about 4,600 megawatt hours. The analyst consensus is about 3.7 gigawatt hours. So I am 27% higher than the analyst consensus here, which for some reason they're expecting a decline quarter over quarter. It's possible we have seen that in the past. Remember, energy storage recognition depends on when projects are completed. So Tesla could have a quarter where a lot of projects kind of bump up together and are completed at the same time, causing us to see what maybe appears to be a bigger ramp than what happens in reality.

然后，关于能源储存方面，我目前拥有大约4.7吉瓦时或4600兆瓦时的储能容量。分析师共识为3.7吉瓦时。因此在这方面我比分析师共识高27%，可能是因为他们预期季度环比会有所下降。过去也有可能出现过这种情况。记住，能源储存的确认要取决于项目完成的时间。所以特斯拉有可能在一个季度内有很多项目同时完成，导致我们看到的增长似乎比实际情况要大。

So it takes us a couple of quarters to get those things smoothed out. So it's possible. But nevertheless, I am expecting continued growth from Tesla at about 20% quarter over quarter rate in my forecast. But it's a difficult one to forecast because of that dependence upon recognition of each project. So for energy generation, obviously, this is a pretty small part of business. Tesla's business these days. I'm expecting around 100 megawatts. analyst consensus is pretty similar there. It dropped a little bit in Q1 down to 67 megawatts from 100, basically the last three quarters. So hopefully we see that return to the more normal baseline for Tesla over the last few.

因此，我们需要几个季度来平稳发展。所以这是有可能的。但是无论如何，根据我的预测，我预计特斯拉的增长会持续以每个季度约20%的速度。但由于项目的依赖性，这是一个难以预测的问题。所以对于能源发电而言，显然这是特斯拉业务中相对较小的一部分。我预计大约会有100兆瓦的发电量，分析师的共识也是差不多的。在过去的三个季度中，发电量从100兆瓦降至67兆瓦，愿望能看到特斯拉在过去几个季度中恢复到更正常的基准水平。

All right, so those are kind of the top line numbers that will drive the revenue. And then obviously Tesla's operational controls will determine margins. So for automotive sales, I'm at just below $21 billion. That's pretty much in line with analyst consensus. As a reminder here, I always do my forecast before I look at the analyst consensus so that I avoid any bias that that might interject into my own forecast, trying to, you know, move around based on what analysts think. So I just do it clean before looking and ironically, both last couple of quarters we've ended up very similar spots.

好的，所以这些大致上是会推动收入增长的一线数字。而且显然，特斯拉的运营控制将决定利润率。所以对于汽车销售，我的预测差不多会在210亿美元以下。这与分析师一致意见基本相符。提醒一下，在看分析师意见之前，我总是先进行预测，以避免受到他们意见的影响，试图根据他们的意见进行调整。所以我只是在看之前做好预测，有趣的是，最近几个季度我们的预测非常相似。

So automotive sales, $21 billion. Unfortunately, Tesla has stopped distributing the regulatory credit estimate consensus. So I can't tell how much of the automotive revenue from analysts expectations is driven by regulatory credits, which makes it a little bit trickier to compare. But for me, I'm at about $400 million. That's pretty close to the average over the last four quarters. If we look at that, that would be $405 million. So it's a volatile category, as you can see just from these last few quarters. But that's kind of what I'm just going with the average there. I've tended to get these under the last few quarters. So I'm trying to break that habit a little bit since I'm usually pretty conservative with this bucket.

根据销售数据，汽车销售额达210亿美元。不幸的是，特斯拉已停止提供有关监管信贷的估算一致性数据。因此，我无法确认分析师对于汽车收入中有多少来自监管信贷，这使得比较变得稍微复杂一些。但对于我个人来说，大约是4亿美元。这与过去四个季度的平均值非常接近。如果我们看一下，这将是4.05亿美元。正如你可以从最近几个季度的数据中看出，这是一个波动较大的类别。但这是我要使用的平均值。在过去的几个季度中，我倾向于低估这个数据。因此，我正在努力改变这个习惯，因为在这个领域我通常持保守态度。

So again, can't tell the analyst consensus there. Energy sales because I do have an extra gigawatt hour here. I'm at about $1.8 billion. They're at about $1.7. So if we look at the bottom line for total sales, really the difference is coming from me expecting higher revenue and energy sales and services and others. So what's most important within these revenue buckets outside of, I would say, energy revenue and how that grows, which will get a better understanding of from really the deployments. Probably the most important thing with the revenue lines would be automotive revenue X credits as we talk about, which will be influenced heavily by average selling prices.

所以，再说一次，我不能告诉分析师们的共识在哪里。能源销售因为我这里有额外的一千兆瓦时。我的销售额大约是18亿美元。他们的销售额大约是17亿美元。所以，如果我们看总销售额的底线，真正的区别是因为我预计能源销售和服务以及其他方面的收入会更高。所以在这些收入篮子中最重要的是什么，我会说是除了能源收入以外的那些，从中我们将更好地了解到它是如何增长的，这将更好地理解部署情况。在收入线上，最重要的可能是汽车收入减去税优惠，因为这将受到平均售价的较大影响。

And if we look at the last 12 months, there's been a lot of swings here, which makes sense given the pricing volatility that Tesla has had. So Q2 last year, Tesla's average selling price was about $56,000, a little bit below that, excluding regulatory credits and excluding leasing. So these are all, you know, that same metric. Right now my forecast is for a $10,000 drop year over year. So it just shows how the pricing impacts. Obviously, there's mixed impacts and things like that too. But it shows, you know, the drop that we've seen an average selling price from that period of time.

如果我们观察过去的12个月，会发现这里有很多波动，这是有道理的，考虑到特斯拉的定价波动性。所以去年第二季度，特斯拉的平均售价约为56,000美元，略低于这个数字，不包括监管认证和租赁。这些都是同一指标。而现在，我的预测是年度下降1万美元。这只是显示了定价对影响的程度。显然，也有其他混合影响等因素。但它显示了我们在这段时间内平均售价的下降。

Now quarter over quarter, it's less significant. Last quarter, we saw, you know, $4,000 drop, $4,000 drop in ASPs quarter over quarter from 51,000 in Q4 to 47,000 in Q1. I'm expecting that to continue to decline. I'm at about 45,000 here for Q2, 2023. So about a $2,000 drop quarter over quarter, about half of what we saw last quarter. Now the primary reason for this is we did see pretty significant price cuts on both Model 3 and Model Y in the United States to pretty much begin the quarter. It was just fixing my camera here a little bit. It was in April, right before Tesla's earnings report actually, they cut prices significantly. So factoring in for that.

现在季度对比不那么重要了。上个季度，我们看到，你知道的，产品平均售价（ASPs）相比上一季度下降了4,000美元，从第四季度的51,000美元降到了第一季度的47,000美元。我预计这种下降趋势将继续。我预计2023年第二季度的ASPs大约会在45,000美元左右。因此，季度对比将下降大约2,000美元，大约是上个季度的一半。这主要原因是我们确实看到了Model 3和Model Y在美国的大幅降价，几乎是在季度开始之前。我的摄像头有点问题，我在修理一下。这是在四月份，正好是特斯拉发布财报之前，他们大幅降价。因此，考虑到这一点。

And then in addition, which makes things really tricky to forecast from an average selling price perspective, there were a lot of discounts that we saw Tesla do throughout the quarter on inventory. So even though we can kind of track the, you know, design studio prices and get a rough gauge for how much those might decline sequentially, when there are things like discounts at the end of quarter, like what we saw in Q4 or Tesla gave those $7,500 discounts, or when we see discounts on inventory, which kind of vary by model and vary by, you know, even within trims sometimes. When those discounts arrive on the inventory, it's very difficult for us to kind of know how that will affect the mix between, you know, where Tesla is selling cars, if that's coming from the design studio, if it's more coming from those inventory pages that do include the discount.

然后此外，这使得从平均销售价格角度来预测变得非常棘手，因为我们在整个季度看到特斯拉对存货进行了许多折扣。所以即使我们可以追踪设计工作室的价格并大致估计它们可能如何递减，但是当季末出现折扣时（就像我们在Q4中看到的特斯拉给出的7500美元折扣，或者当我们看到存货有折扣（有时根据型号和修饰款式而变化）。当这些折扣出现在存货上时，我们很难知道这将如何影响特斯拉的车辆销售组合，是从设计工作室来的，还是更多来自包含折扣的存货页面。

So long way of saying there's uncertainty on this category, no one really knows. We can put our forecasts out here. And ultimately, this is going to be a huge driver for the rest of the results. But it's, you know, based on every, all the information that I have, this gets kind of where my forecast is.

这种说法暗示了在这个类别中存在不确定性，没有人真正知道。我们可以提出我们的预测。最终，这将成为其他结果的重要驱动因素。但是，基于我拥有的所有信息，这是我的预测。

Now, obviously, the other thing that's going into Tesla's results from an earnings perspective would be the cost of goods sold. So as we have seen average selling prices decline, cost of goods sold have declined as well. So $41,000 last year down to $38,500 in Q1, I'm projecting that to continue to decline and in this forecast showing about a $1,200 decline month or quarter over quarter. Now the reason for that would be we do have higher volume, about 10% higher volume, quarter over quarter. So there's economies of scale that Tesla generates from that. And then as we, as I mentioned, going into this, a big drag on Tesla's entire business right now is Gigabrelin and Gigataxis, getting those factories ramped up, particularly Texas because of the 4680 cell production there, that's been a cost drain for Tesla. And that is hitting their average cost of goods sold. So each quarter that goes by, we should see that become less impactful, which means that there's going to be less of an increase to average selling prices caused, or average cost of goods sold per vehicle caused by the additional costs from those factories.

显然，从盈利角度来看，影响特斯拉业绩的另一项因素就是销售成本。因此，当销售价格下降时，销售成本也会下降。去年为41,000美元，第一季度为38,500美元，我预计这一趋势将继续下降，预测每个月或每个季度将减少约1,200美元。其原因是我们的销售量有所增加，较上一季度增长了约10%，这给特斯拉带来了经济规模的效益。另外，正如我之前提到的，当前特斯拉整个业务的一个重大拖累是Gigabrelin和Gigataxis，它们的工厂正在逐步转产，特别是德克萨斯工厂因为4680电池的生产，这给特斯拉带来了成本负担。这对他们的平均销售成本产生了影响。随着时间的推移，这种影响应该会减少，这意味着由于这些工厂的额外成本导致的每辆车的平均销售成本增加将减少。

So if you kind of just diminish those over time, this will return to a more natural level for Tesla kind of excluding those, not necessarily one time, but more temporary type of items as Tesla completes those ramps. And that's what I don't think a lot of people have really appreciated about where the business kind of was a year ago versus where the business is today. So it's been a big drain. That drain is going to continue. Zach mentioned that on the call last time. It's just a matter of the diminishing over time, which hopefully we see.

所以，如果你在逐渐减少这些因素，特斯拉将恢复到一个更自然的水平，不包括那些一次性的、更短暂的项目，因为特斯拉完成了这些步枪。这就是我认为很多人在一年前和今天的企业状况之间并没有真正体会到的地方。所以这是一个巨大的负担。这种负担将会继续下去。扎克上次在电话会议上提到了这一点。只是随着时间的推移逐渐减少，希望我们能看到。

So basically what I'm saying here is, you know, economies of scale, driving costs down, hopefully Tesla's logistics are improving as well. Zach mentioned there might be some materials, particularly lithium that could provide some cost savings for Tesla, but said that that would probably be more in the second half of this year. So not a whole lot this quarter. So predominantly here, my expectation would be from scale and just, you know, improve cost structures at Berlin and Texas.

所以基本上我的意思是，你知道的，规模经济，降低成本，希望Tesla的物流也在改善中。Zach提到可能有一些材料，特别是锂，可以为Tesla提供一些成本节约，但他说这可能更多地发生在今年下半年。所以这个季度不会有太多变化。因此，我的期望主要是通过柏林和德克萨斯的规模和改善成本结构来实现。

All right. So with those two things, those are probably, you know, two of the main buckets keep an eye on. But with this all shaking out, I have automotive profit at $4.1 billion. Again, $400 million of that would be regulatory credits. So that would be, you know, down $100 million quarter over quarter. But in my forecast, you can see that that is all driven by regulatory credits. So otherwise pretty similar, which again, might be a little bit disappointing given the 10% increase in deliveries roughly. But you know, you've got to offset the average selling prices that we see decline. Energy profit, I have at about $231 million. So that's up significantly from the 168 last quarter. And then I have $149 million for services and others getting me to about $4.5 billion in total gross profit, which again, slightly down quarter over quarter. But again, driven by regulatory credits and up 6% year over year.

好的。所以就这两项来说，那可能是我们需要特别关注的主要领域。但是考虑到这些方面的综合情况，我预计汽车利润为41亿美元。其中，4亿美元是来自监管信用额度。所以相比上个季度，那将减少1亿美元。但是从我的预测来看，这一切都是由监管信用额度决定的。其他方面差不多，可能会有点令人失望，因为我们的交付量大约增长了10%。但是你要考虑到我们所见的平均售价下降所带来的影响。能源利润方面，我预计大约为2.31亿美元，较上个季度的1.68亿美元增长了很多。然后我预计服务和其他方面的利润为1.49亿美元，从而将总毛利润达到约45亿美元，与上个季度相比略有下降，但是同比增长了6%，这主要还是取决于监管信用额度。

So again, going back to the 83% increase in deliveries year over year where, you know, there were constraints last year in Q2 for COVID with an 83% delivery increase, obviously you'd hope for a little bit more of an increase on the operating, you know, gross profit line. So it's a little bit disappointing from that perspective. But again, we're just in a different place in the business right now than we were in Q2 last year. So you over year comparison maybe doesn't look that great, but we got to, you know, just kind of remember some of the context behind it, which is again, kind of why we go through these types of things.

所以，再回到今年年度交付量增长了83%这个话题上来，你知道，去年Q2受到COVID的限制，交付量增长了83%，显然你会希望在运营，你知道，毛利润线上有更多的增长。所以从这个角度来说，有点令人失望。但是再一次，我们现在的业务情况与去年的Q2不同。所以与去年相比可能看起来不是很好，但是我们必须记住背后的一些背景，这也是我们做这些事情的原因所在。

All right. So automotive gross margin, I've got a 19.5% again, sequential decline. X credits at about 17.9% energy gross margin, always tough to predict, but I have a small increase there as Tesla hopefully gets more scale.

好的。所以汽车毛利率，我再次达到19.5%，环比下降。能源方面的毛利率约为17.9%，很难预测，但随着特斯拉希望获得更多规模，我预计会有小幅增长。

And then services and others, we have seen pretty consistent improvement. So I'm continuing to project that. Now if we look at the total gross margin here, I'm at 18.1%, I know it's consensus 18.2%. You can see total gross profit pretty much the exact same forecast. Again, just by happenstance, I would say that analysts have been doing a much better job of forecasting Tesla, at least from a specific quarter level, not so much for the long term forecast, but on a quarterly basis in recent quarters, it's just become a little bit more straightforward. And they've kind of figured out Tesla's business a little bit better than we used to see in years past.

然后，就服务和其他方面而言，我们看到了相当稳定的改善。所以我继续预测着这一点。现在如果我们看总毛利率，我是18.1%，我知道市场共识是18.2%。你可以看到总毛利基本上是完全相同的预测。再次强调，我会说分析师在预测特斯拉方面做得更好一些，至少从特定季度的水平上而言，不太适用于长期预测，但在最近几个季度的季度基础上，变得更加直观。他们对特斯拉的业务有了更好的理解，比过去几年我们所见到的更为透彻。

That's particularly true on the operating expenses line. This has become a lot more predictable, especially with Elon Musk's compensation plan now being fully recognized. So we tend to see some relatively linear growth in R&D, actually kind of a surprise decline in that last quarter. I do have that returning to growth this quarter. And then I have SG&A slightly growing as well, selling general and administrative expenses. No Bitcoin impairment this quarter.

这一点在运营费用方面尤为明显。现在，特别是考虑到埃隆·马斯克的补偿计划已完全得到认可，这一点变得更加可预测。因此，我们倾向于看到研发方面相对线性增长，实际上上个季度出现了意外下降，这让人有些惊讶。我认为在本季度研发费用将再度增长。此外，销售总务费用也会略微增长。本季度没有比特币减值损失。

So total operating expenses at about $1.9 billion, which actually again here. To the exact dollar, or at least to the exact million dollars in line with analyst consensus. So pretty similar operating income forecast of $2.5 billion, 10%, 10.3% operating margin for me, 10.4 for the analyst consensus. So I'm pretty much in line.

所以总运营费用约为19亿美元，与分析师的共识基本一致，准确到每一美元，或至少到每一百万美元。我的运营收入预测为25亿美元，利润率为10%，分析师的共识为10.4%。所以我的预测基本与分析师的一致。

The bottom line's a little bit different. So even done at $4.3 billion, non-gap net income at $2.9 billion versus analysts are just below $2.8. So it's a little bit confusing because we've got the same operating income. Why are these numbers then ending up so significantly different? The main driver there is differences in income interest expectations and other expenses basically.

底线有一点不同。即使以43亿美元的价格进行交易，非仗义净收入也达到29亿美元，而分析师的预期略低于28亿美元。这有点令人困惑，因为我们拥有相同的营业收入。为什么这些数字最终差异如此显著呢？主要原因在于收入利息预期和其他支出的差异。

So I'm expecting a little bit more interest income with the interest rates that we have seen recently. Tesla's been actually earning some pretty good money there. There's been some other expenses, which we never really know what's in that bucket, but those have dragged interest income net down a little bit. I'm not expecting that necessarily to continue. So we could see a nice little surprise from the interest income perspective and then taxes as the other thing that kind of affects this line. So they, I think analysts have like a slightly higher tax forecast than I do. And really that's driving the net results to be a little bit different. But when you're in this range, I mean, it's just sort of splitting hairs.

所以，我预计最近的利率将带来更多的利息收入。特斯拉在那方面实际上赚了一些不错的钱。还有一些其他费用，我们从来不知道那个桶里装的是什么，但这些费用稍微拖低了利息收入净额。我并不指望这种情况会继续下去。因此，从利息收入的角度来看，我们可能会有一个不错的惊喜，税收是另一个影响这一项的因素。所以，分析师对税收的预测可能比我稍微高一些。但是当你处于这个范围时，这只是琐碎的差别而已。

So I'm at 83 cents non-gap earnings per share. I mean, I was consensus at 80 gap earnings per share. I'm at 71 cents analysts are at 68 cents free cash flow. I still need to work on and get better at forecasting. So I don't do a forecast for that right now. Analysts are at 2.3 billion. I would expect it to be a little bit lower than that because Tesla probably added inventory this quarter. We know that production was about 480,000 vehicles versus the deliveries of 466,000 vehicles. So you've got 14,000 additional vehicles, obviously work in process inventory. So could have dragged that down and that could help free cash flow. But generally when you're building more inventory than you're selling, your free cash flow is going to be a little bit worse. If you're selling more than you're building, your free cash flow is going to be a little bit better. So those can happen flow over time. But because this was an increase in inventory quarter, it puts a little bit of pressure on that free cash flow line.

所以我每股非通胀盈利为83美分。我的共识预期是每股80美分的通胀盈利。我每股的盈利为71美分，分析师预估为68美分的自由现金流。我仍然需要在预测方面继续努力和提高能力。所以我暂时不会进行对此的预测。分析师预估为23亿美元。我预计会略微低于这个数字，因为特斯拉可能在本季度增加了库存。我们知道生产量约为48万辆车，而交付量为46.6万辆车。所以你有额外的1.4万辆车，显然是工作在制品库存。因此可能对自由现金流造成一定的拖累，但一般来说，如果你建立的库存多于销售量，你的自由现金流就会稍差一些。如果你销售量多于建设量，你的自由现金流就会稍好一些。这些情况可能随着时间而变化。但因为这是一个增加库存的季度，它对自由现金流线有一定的压力。

So those are the main things. Again, just contextualizing. This is one quarter, two and a half billion dollars, whether Tesla makes two and a half billion dollars here or three billion dollars in gap net income. Obviously it matters because of what it means for really these numbers and what Tesla's cost controls are. But if we zoom out and we think about Tesla's next generation products, we think about the Cybertruck, we think about FSD and the margins that Tesla can generate from that over time, it's not super consequential. So the reason it matters is because they know we'll take this and they'll extrapolate from it, but Tesla's business is not going to be that simple to forecast. I can promise you that over the next five years, there are going to be plenty of surprises that come in these numbers, which will cause volatility at those periods of time.

那就是主要的事情了。再次重申，这只是一个背景说明。这是一个季度，25亿美元，无论特斯拉在这里赚了25亿美元，还是在gap净收入上赚了30亿美元。显然这很重要，因为它对于这些数字的意义以及特斯拉的成本控制很重要。但是，如果我们放大视野，想一想特斯拉的下一代产品，想一想Cybertruck，想一想全自动驾驶和特斯拉可以从中获得的利润，那么这并不是太重要的。所以之所以重要是因为他们知道我们会以此来推断，但是特斯拉的业务不会那么简单预测。我可以向你保证，在接下来的五年里，这些数字中会出现很多令人惊讶的事情，这将导致这些时期的波动。

So just a reminder to kind of zoom out and take things in stride over the last four quarters now, Tesla's going to have generated about 12 billion dollars and that's helping them finance their growth plans without having to go to the capital markets without having to dilute the stock. And ultimately that's what's most important is being able to continue driving towards those growth plans.

所以，这只是一个提醒，要放下身心，从整体的角度来看待过去四个季度，特斯拉将会创造大约120亿美元的收入，而这将有助于他们在不需要向资本市场融资，也不需要稀释股票的情况下，实现他们的增长计划。而最重要的是能够继续朝着这些增长计划前进。

So I'll see here, you know, if there's any questions, just quickly in the chat as we head into tomorrow, I will be doing the normal, you know, earnings day episodes, I guess, two episodes. So we'll do the live stream as the numbers come out, which will be shortly after market close. We'll kick that off right around market close. And then I believe probably 5.30 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow is the earnings call. We'll double check on that, but when the earnings call happens, we'll do the live stream of that. I'll have my notes up so as to not interrupt. And then we'll be reactions after the call as well.

所以，我会在这里查看，如果有任何问题，明天快速在聊天中提问，我将按照正常的方式进行盈利日节目，我猜会有两个节目。所以我们会在公司公布财报之后进行直播，时间应该是市场收盘后不久。那时我们会启动直播。然后，我认为明天东部时间下午5点30分会有财报电话会议。我们会再次确认一下，但当财报电话会议开始时，我们将进行直播。我会准备好笔记，以防干扰。之后，我们将进行电话会议后的反应解读。

Alright. So did see a super chat here? Let's see. It's a little bit small there, but would it be a better business decision to only allow future hardware Teslas to be allowed to be robots actually enabled to boost vehicle demand? Wow. Future hardware Teslas to be allowed. So I think the essence of this question is basically saying like pick a point in time and only vehicles from that point forward can be robo taxis is my understanding of this question. Sure. I mean, that would help drive some demand for vehicles right now because then there's going to be people that want to be on the other side of that line. I don't see any reason that Tesla would want to do that. It seems a little bit unfair for the purposes of just driving some additional sales in the short term. I would hope that they want to do something like that. But yeah, I guess it would probably help with demand a little bit.

好的。那么这里有没有发生超级聊天呢？我们看看。那儿很小，但是是不是允许未来的硬件特斯拉实际上成为机器人来提高车辆需求的更好的商业决策呢？哇。允许未来的硬件特斯拉。所以我认为这个问题的本质基本上是选择一个时间点，只有从那个时间点开始的车辆才能成为机器人出租车，这是我对这个问题的理解。当然。我是说，这会帮助推动现在的车辆需求，因为那么就会有人想要成为那条线的另一边。我不认为特斯拉会希望这样做。仅仅为了在短期内推动一些额外销售而这样做似乎有点不公平。希望他们想要这样做。但是，我想这可能会在一定程度上帮助需求。

Okay. Just want to quickly check. So here's one. I'll just put this on on screen here. So Robin the analysts are way too low increase in production 10% lower cost will produce $1 non gap. Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, I do publish my model on ShareLoft and kind of the purpose of that is to let people go in there and put in their own assumptions. But depending on what your interpretation of the average selling price increases or decreases and various mixed elements and foreign exchange certainly can impact these numbers significantly. And foreign exchange isn't something that I model yet, but has had significant impact on the last couple of quarters. There's a lot of reasons that these numbers can change. I always think it's kind of funny because people will basically just isolate on these two earnings per share and kind of compare those and use those to figure out how good a forecast is. It's really not about that because you could be 10% off on one line and then 10% off in the other direction on another line, which is a really terrible forecast and it nets out to be right on. But it's really more about what's going into it. And that's why we do these sort of preview episodes is so that we understand what is driving the results when we get them because these numbers are important to Tesla's business. But we just have to put that importance in context of all the other things that Tesla is doing. And again, probably the most important part of it is just making sure that Tesla stays on track to be able to fund their growth plans. So yeah, I would love a dollar. That would be great. It would mean that probably Tesla's costs are coming in a lot better than I expect here, which would obviously be really good news for the next few quarters.

好的。只是想快速核实一下。所以这是一个例子。我将把这个放在屏幕上。所以分析师罗宾表示，产量增加的幅度要低得多，成本降低10%将带来1美元的非盈利增长。是的，这当然有可能。我的模型已经发布在Shareloft上了，这样做的目的是让人们可以输入他们自己的假设。但是，取决于你对平均售价的涨跌和各种各样的混合因素以及外汇的解读不同，肯定会对这些数字产生重大影响。外汇目前还没有纳入我的模型中，但在过去几个季度中已经对这些数字产生了重大影响。有很多原因可以导致这些数字发生变化。我一直认为这很有趣，因为人们通常只关注每股收益，将其与其他数值进行比较，以确定一个预测有多准确。但实际上并不是这样，因为你可能在一个指标上高估10%，然后在另一个指标上低估10%，这样的预测很糟糕，但最终平衡了起来。真正重要的是其中包含了什么因素。这就是我们做这些预测的目的，以便于在获得结果时了解是什么因素推动了这些结果，因为这些数字对特斯拉的业务来说很重要。但我们必须将这种重要性放在特斯拉所做的其他所有事情的背景下加以考虑。而且，其中可能最重要的部分就是确保特斯拉能够按计划筹集资金来支持他们的增长计划。所以，是的，我希望能有1美元。那将是很好的消息。这意味着特斯拉的成本可能比我在这里预期的要好很多，这对接下来的几个季度来说显然是个好消息。

All right. So I think we'd probably wrap it up there. Maybe just a couple of quick things that I'm looking out for on the call. Obviously cyber truck, there's been a lot going on. I'm sure we'll see some pictures of that. Hopefully Tesla announces that they've really officially started production and reiterate that they're expecting to have that delivery event this quarter, which would be really exciting. And then just anything that they say on the continued ramp up of really 4680s, I know there's a couple of questions in the say questions about that. So those are probably major items right now outside of FSD that I think are really worth paying attention to. So sure, we'll get that and just always interested in the other general updates from Tesla.

好的。所以我想我们可能就到这里吧。也许只有一些我在通话中注意的事情。显然，Cybertruck方面有很多动态。我敢肯定我们会看到一些照片。希望特斯拉宣布他们已经正式开始生产，并重申他们预计将在本季度举行交付活动，这将非常令人兴奋。然后还有他们在持续扩产4680电池方面的任何信息，我知道有一些问题涉及到了这个。所以除了FSD之外，我认为这些是现在非常值得关注的主要事项。当然，我们会得到这些消息，我总是对特斯拉的其他一般更新感兴趣。

All right. That is it for today, then. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for earnings for the Wednesday, July 19th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天就到这里吧。如往常一样，谢谢你的倾听。记得订阅并开启通知。你也可以在Twitter上找到我，账号是Tesla podcast。明天我们将会见面，到时会为你带来7月19日星期三的特斯拉每日新闻。谢谢。