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Are Global Lithium Supply Forecasts Accurate? // Part 2

发布时间 2023-07-18 14:25:55    来源

摘要

There appears to be plenty of lithium in the ground, yet supply forecasts say lithium will come up short. So, are global lithium supply forecasts accurate or is it a case of understanding the assumptions so we can form our own conclusions? Use my referral link to purchase a Tesla product and get free credits you can redeem for awards like Supercharging miles, merchandise and accessories. https://ts.la/jordan72005 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thelimitingfactor Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/limitingfactor42069 Teespring: https://teespring.com/stores/the-limiting-factor Twitter: https://twitter.com/LimitingThe Venmo: @thelimitingfactor *Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:31 Thanks, Credits, and Sources 05:03 Is there Enough Lithium in the Ground? 07:56 Let’s Evaluate Three Lithium Forecasts… 15:07 Benchmark’s Forecast // Revisions Explained 17:34 Lithium Supply in 2030 // Bull and Bear Cases Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said

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Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. At Tesla's 2023 annual meeting, Elon Musk said that lithium refining is the bottleneck for lithium-ion battery production and he doesn't expect there to be a bottleneck with lithium mining. In other words, he disagrees with lithium industry experts, which are all saying that mining will be the bottleneck. But he also said that he could be wrong, so is Elon wrong or is the lithium industry wrong?
大家欢迎回来，我是乔丹·盖西傻，这里是《限制因素》节目。在特斯拉2023年的年度会议上，埃隆·马斯克表示，锂精炼是锂离子电池生产的瓶颈，他并不认为锂矿开采会成为瓶颈。换句话说，他与锂行业的专家们意见不合，这些专家都认为开采是瓶颈。但他也表示可能会错，所以埃隆是错的还是锂行业错了呢？

Answering that question actually requires a full walkthrough of the global lithium supply chain and so this video is an excerpt from a larger video that covers the topic in full. The full video is already available for Patreon supporters, Twitter subscribers and YouTube members. I'll be releasing one section of the video every two weeks before releasing the full video at the end of the series.
回答这个问题实际上需要对全球锂供应链进行全面的介绍，所以这个视频只是其中的一小部分，完整的视频已经提供给Patreon支持者、Twitter订阅者和YouTube会员。我将每两周发布视频的一个部分，最终将在系列结束时发布完整的视频。

In this video, we'll explore Elon's statement from Investor Day that there's enough lithium in the ground to transition the world to sustainable energy. Then, we'll look at forecasts for global lithium supply that show that despite there being enough lithium in the ground, the supply of mined lithium isn't expected to keep up with demand. That obviously raises the question of whether lithium forecasts are accurate, so we'll look at the assumptions that go into lithium forecasts. From there, I'll put forward a provisional bear and bull case for lithium supply that will build on in the upcoming videos.
在这个视频中，我们将探讨埃隆在投资者日中的声明，即地下储存的锂足以实现全球向可持续能源的转变。然后，我们将看一下全球锂供应的预测，这些预测显示虽然地下储存的锂足够，但开采的锂供应预计无法满足需求。这显然引发了关于锂预测是否准确的问题，因此我们将考虑进入锂预测的假设。从那里开始，我将提出一个临时的看跌和看涨情景，以后续的视频中加以完善。

Before we begin, a raft of credits and thanks are in order. Feel free to skip this part of the video and move to the next time stamp if you watched the previous video. I'm including the thanks and credits on each video in the series for the people who haven't seen the other videos. That's because it's not just a thanks, it lets viewers know the quality of my sources and peer review.
在我们开始之前，先要致谢和感谢一大堆人。如果你观看了之前的视频，可以随时跳过这部分视频并继续到下一个时间戳。我在系列视频的每个视频中都会包含致谢和感谢，目的是让那些还没有看过其他视频的人了解我的信息来源和同行评审的质量，这不仅是对他们的感谢，也是让观众了解我信息的来源的一种方式。

First, Vivos Kumar reviewed the draft script. Vivos was directly involved with Tesla's battery supply chain for nearly three years, where he negotiated billions of dollars of material spend and also did strategic analysis and forecasting for battery materials. After that, he worked for benchmark mineral intelligence for nearly three years. He's now co-founder and CEO of Mitra Kim. If you'd like to know more about that, check out my interview with Vivos Anchiro.
首先，维沃斯·库马尔对草稿剧本进行了审核。维沃斯在特斯拉的电池供应链中直接参与了将近三年的时间，在那里，他为电池材料进行了数十亿美元的材料采购，并进行了战略分析和预测。在那之后，他在Benchmark Mineral Intelligence工作了将近三年。他现在是Mitra Kim的联合创始人兼CEO。如果你想了解更多信息，请查看我与维沃斯·安奇罗的访谈。

Next my sources. Rodney and Howard of ArcAequity, a Lithium Analysis and Advisory firm, spent several hours and long email threads answering detailed questions about mine development. If you're interested in their work, you can connect with them on Twitter with the details on screen or follow the Rockstock channel on YouTube. Cameron Perks of benchmark mineral intelligence walk me through how lithium supply and demand is evolving over time. I recommend following benchmark mineral intelligence and their CEO Simon Moore's on Twitter to keep up to date with the Lithium industry. Lars Lee's doll provided key data for this video around lithium refining capacity versus production. And beyond that, I've used a number of graphs from Ristat Energy over the years. You can also follow Lars on Twitter. Austin Devaney helped me put a finer point on a few topics around hard rock lithium mining. Ristat Energy was an executive at Alba Morrow and Rockwood Lithium for nearly 10 years, which is one of Tesla's largest lithium suppliers and now has been at Piedmont Lithium for the past three years, which has an agreement for future supply to Tesla.
接下来是我的信息来源。Rodney和Howard是来自ArcAequity的锂分析和咨询公司的专家，他们花了几个小时和长时间的邮件讨论来回答关于采矿开发的详细问题。如果你对他们的工作感兴趣，可以在屏幕上的详细资料上关注他们的Twitter账号，或者关注Rockstock频道的YouTube。Cameron Perks来自benchmark mineral intelligence，他向我介绍了锂供需的演变过程。我建议关注benchmark mineral intelligence和他们的首席执行官Simon Moore的Twitter账号，以了解锂产业的最新动态。Lars Lee's doll为这个视频提供了关于锂精炼能力与产量的关键数据。此外，我多年来使用了Ristat Energy的一些图表。你也可以在Twitter上关注Lars。Austin Devaney在硬岩锂矿开采的几个主题上帮助我更加准确地表达观点。Ristat Energy曾在Alba Morrow和Rockwood Lithium担任高级职位近10年，在其中担任了特斯拉最大的锂供应商，现在已经在Piedmont Lithium担任了过去三年的职位，并与特斯拉签订了未来供应协议。

Bradford Ferguson and Matt Smith of Rebellionair.com reviewed the final release candidate of the video from an investor lens. Rebellionair specializes in helping investors manage concentrated positions. They can help with covered calls, risk management and creating a financial master plan from your first principles. Bear in mind, this video is not investment advice and always do your own research.
布拉德福德·弗格森和马特·史密斯来自Rebellionair.com，在投资者的角度上对视频的最终发布候选版本进行了审查。Rebellionair专注于帮助投资者管理集中头寸，他们可以协助处理认购期权、风险管理，并根据你的初衷创建一个财务规划。请记住，这个视频并非投资建议，一定要进行自己的研究。

Finally, despite all the input I received from some of the leading experts and information sources in the Lithium industry, all the opinions in this video are my own. There are differing views and forecasts within the Lithium industry that I had to reconcile and combine with my own insights and expectations. With regards to the peer review, it was for factual accuracy and a sanity check rather than for crafting the tone and conclusions of the video.
最后，尽管我从锂行业的一些领先专家和信息来源那里得到了许多建议，但这个视频中的所有观点都是我自己的。在锂行业内存在着不同的观点和预测，我必须将它们与我自己的洞察力和期望结合起来。至于同行评审，它主要用于核实事实准确性和进行理性检查，而不是为了塑造视频的语气和结论。

Overall, my goal was to create the most comprehensive resource out there on how global lithium supply and battery supply will evolve this decade and how that relates to Tesla. So if you feel like I've hit the mark and get value from the video or my content in general, toss a coin to your witcher.
总的来说，我的目标是创建一个有关全球锂供应和电池供应在本十年内如何发展以及与特斯拉的关系的最全面的资源。所以，如果你觉得我已经达到了目标，并从视频或我的内容中获得了价值，请向你的巫师投币。

Taking a video like this takes months and generally, analysis like this would be packaged up by an analyst house and put in a report that costs thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars. Generally, I make about $200 to $600 per video in YouTube ad revenues. That is, it's the direct support that I get from less than 1% of subscribers through Patreon, YouTube and Twitter that makes the channel possible. The details for support are in the description. Let's get into it.
拍摄这样的视频需要数月的时间，通常这样的分析都会由专业的分析机构整合，并制作成价值数千甚至数万美元的报告。一般来说，我在Youtube广告收入上一个视频可以赚到200到600美元。也就是说，我通过Patreon、Youtube和Twitter这少于1%的订阅者直接的支持，才使得这个频道得以存在。支持的详细信息可以在描述中找到。我们开始吧。

First, it's worth reviewing Tesla's claim from Investor Day that there's enough lithium in the ground to transition the world to sustainable energy. For those who watch the Investor Day presentation, this will be a brief recap, but I'll be adding some context and specific numbers to put some meat on the bones of Tesla's claim. The image on screen indicates that it'll take less than 30% of the world's lithium resources to transition the world to sustainable energy.
首先，值得回顾一下特斯拉在投资者日活动中提出的主张，即地球上有足够的锂资源可以让世界实现可持续能源过渡。对于那些参加过投资者日演讲的人来说，这将是一个简短的回顾，但我将为特斯拉的主张添加一些背景和具体数据，以更加详细地解释。屏幕上的图像显示，实现世界可持续能源过渡所需要的锂资源量不到全球总量的30%。

However, a resource is an estimate of how much of an element might be in the ground. That is, the work hasn't been done to define how much of the element is actually there, and whether it can be extracted profitably. For example, the ocean contains enormous amounts of lithium, but it's at such low concentration that currently it can't be extracted profitably. That's where this graph on lithium reserves comes in.
然而，资源是对地下某种元素含量的估计。也就是说，尚未确定该元素的实际存在量以及是否能够盈利性地提取。例如，海洋含有大量的锂，但其浓度如此之低，目前无法盈利性地提取。这就是锂储量图的重要性所在。

Reserves are resources that are well defined. We know how much material they contain and generally whether the material can be extracted profitably. I say generally because profitability depends on both market price, which fluctuates, and extraction efficiency, which improves over time as technology improves.
储量是指已被清晰定义的资源。我们知道它们所含有的物质数量，通常也能判断这些物质是否能够被有利可图地开采出来。我之所以说通常，是因为盈利能力既取决于市场价格的波动，又受到开采效率的影响，而随着技术的进步，开采效率也在不断提高。

Although Tesla's graph on reserves is illustrative, it's normalized to the year 2000, meaning that it doesn't tell us how much material is in the ground. But rather, how much reserves have grown over the past two decades? Because the eight times growth in lithium reserves are enough to transition the world to sustainable energy.
虽然特斯拉的储量图形具有说明性，但它已经标准化到2000年，这意味着它并没有告诉我们地下有多少材料。相反，它告诉我们过去两个十年内储量增长了多少。因为锂储量增长了八倍，已足以推动世界向可持续能源过渡。

Let's look at US Geological Survey data for global lithium production and reserves. As of 2022, global lithium reserves were nearly 25 million tons of elemental lithium. That's enough for roughly 178 terawatt-hours of batteries. I'd like to emphasize that's a back-of-the-napkin estimate, and it could be off by plus or minus 25%, depending on what type of battery cell is used.
让我们来看看美国地质调查局关于全球锂生产和储量的数据。截至2022年，全球锂储量接近2500万吨元素锂。这足够用于大约178太瓦时的电池。我想强调这只是一个粗略估算，加减误差可能在25%左右，具体取决于所使用的电池电池类型。

When Tesla's master plan part three, they call for about 198 terawatt-hours of battery cells, so the reserves come up a bit short. However, lithium reserves have grown by about 80% in the past five years, and I have no doubt that within the next three to five years, even taking into account that some of those reserves may be off limits due to political challenges will have all the lithium reserves we need to transition the world to sustainable energy.
特斯拉的第三个总体规划中，他们呼吁约198太瓦时的电池电力储备，因此储备有些不足。然而，在过去五年中，锂储备增长了约80％，我毫不怀疑在未来三到五年内，即使考虑到部分储备可能因政治挑战而无法利用，我们将拥有足够的锂储备来推动世界向可持续能源转变。

So if most of the work is done to find and to find lithium reserves, why do lithium forecasts show that lithium supply will come up increasingly short as the decade progresses? If all that's needed here is mining, and mining is just digging things up, what's the issue? In short, mining's a lot more complicated than just digging things up. And just like it'll take Tesla years to build enough factories to hit their goal of 20 million vehicles per year, it's going to take years to build the mines to supply those factories. However, the mines have to jump through more regulatory and technical hoops before they can even break ground.
那么，如果大部分工作都是用来寻找和储备锂，为什么锂供应的预测显示，在接下来的十年里，锂供应将越来越短缺？如果所需的只是开采，而开采只是挖掘东西，那问题出在哪里呢？简单来说，开采远比仅仅挖掘东西要复杂得多。就像特斯拉需要多年时间建立足够的工厂以实现年产2000万辆汽车的目标一样，建设供应这些工厂的矿场也需要多年时间。然而，在开工之前，这些矿场必须克服更多的监管和技术难题。

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. To fully understand why mining will likely be the bottleneck for lithium production, we first need to look at forecasts for lithium supply and demand. That's for three reasons. First, lithium supply tends to be the focus of most discussions I've seen about lithium, but despite being half the equation, lithium demand is often neglected. Second, we need to understand the assumptions behind the forecasts and what makes a good forecast. Along the way, we'll get a feel for some high and low-end boundaries for lithium supply and demand. Third, that in turn is a good springboard to take a detailed look at where all the units of supply and demand will come from and why. And therefore, where the forecasts could be wrong. From there, we can build our own forecast.
但我们在操之过急。要充分理解为何采矿可能成为锂生产的瓶颈，我们首先需要看一下对锂供求的预测。这有三个原因。首先，锂供应往往是我见过关于锂讨论的重点，但尽管锂需求是方程的一半，但它往往被忽视。其次，我们需要了解预测背后的假设以及一个好的预测应具备的条件。在此过程中，我们将对锂供求的高低边界有所了解。第三，由此我们可以详细了解供应和需求的单位将来自哪里以及为什么。从而找出预测可能出现错误的地方。从那里，我们可以建立自己的预测。

With that in mind, let's start by looking at three forecasts, from low to high quality.
考虑到这一点，让我们首先看一下三个预测，从低质量到高质量。

This graph from LYNTOWN resources is based on data from Wood Mackenzie. The first thing I'd note about the graph is that it contains the wrong units. It should be in megatons rather than kilotons. That would be an easy mistake for most people to make, but it's a big mistake if you work in the industry. The next thing worth noting is that, in my opinion, the demand is below what's reasonable. They project 1.9 million tons of LCE demand by 2030. LCE stands for Lithium Carbonate equivalent, which just tells you that they weren't referring to pure lithium, but rather a commonly traded lithium chemical. Five LCE units are equivalent to about one unit of pure lithium, because lithium carbonate is about 80% carbonate by weight. However, 1.9 million tons LCE is fairly abstract. What does that mean in terms of battery production? It's roughly 2.7 TWh.
这张来自LYNTOWN资源公司的图表基于来自Wood Mackenzie的数据。关于这个图表，我首先要注意到的是，它使用的是错误的单位。应该使用兆吨而不是千吨作为单位。对于大多数人来说，这是一个容易犯的错误，但如果你在这个行业工作，这就是一个大错误。接下来值得注意的是，在我看来，这个需求低于合理水平。他们预测到2030年将有190万吨锂碳酸盐当量的需求。LCE代表锂碳酸盐当量，这告诉我们他们指的不是纯锂，而是一种常见的锂化学品。五个LCE单位大约等于一个纯锂单位，因为碳酸锂约占80%的重量。然而，190万吨LCE相对来说还是比较抽象的。以电池产量来说，大约是2.7太瓦时。

For perspective, this year in 2023, there will likely be over one TWh of actual lithium demand. That means the graph is forecasting an average annual growth rate of only 15%. That's as compared to the actual average demand growth for lithium over the past six years, which was 40% per year. Furthermore, Tesla stated that just from their demand alone, they're targeting three TWh by 2030. That is, Tesla expects their own in-house usage to be more than wood-mikensy is forecasting for the entire world.
以角度来看，在2023年，实际锂需求可能会超过1 TWh。这意味着该图表预测的平均年增长率仅为15%。与过去六年间锂需求的实际平均增长率相比，这个增长率只有40%每年。此外，特斯拉表示，仅凭他们自身的需求，他们的目标是到2030年达到3 TWh。也就是说，特斯拉预计他们自己的内部使用量将超过伍德-迈肯西预测的全球总量。

This graph from Lithium Americas, which is based on data from benchmark mineral intelligence from 2021, is a little better in a few ways. First, the LCE units are at the correct magnitude, megatons. Second, the 2030 demand forecast is for 2.4 megatons, which is enough for about 3.4 TWh of battery cells. That's getting a bit more realistic. But in my view, it's still too low, and doesn't specify whether that's a bull, bear, or base case. Third, the supply data actually includes a rough split between increases in supply from mines that are already operating, brownfields mining projects, and greenfields mining projects that are probable or highly probable. Brownfields projects are expansions near existing mines that have already been surveyed, and greenfields projects are completely new mines.
这张来自Lithium Americas的图表基于2021年Benchmark Mineral Intelligence的数据，在几个方面有所改进。首先，LCE（锂碳酸盐当量）的单位是以正确的数量级表示的，即百万吨。其次，2030年的需求预测为2.4百万吨，足够生产约3.4兆瓦时的电池。这更加接近现实。但在我看来，这个预测仍然偏低，并且没有明确指定是看涨、看跌还是基准情况。第三，供应数据实际上包括了已经运营的矿山、已经进行勘探的扩建项目以及可能或高度可能的全新矿山之间的粗略分割。扩建项目是在现有矿山附近进行的扩展工程，而全新矿山则是完全全新的开采项目。

Overall, it appears that Lithium Americas used a simplified version of benchmark minerals data to good effect. However, let's look at a more up-to-date forecast directly from benchmark minerals that provides a greater level of detail. First, the 2030 demand forecast shows two primary pathways, a base case at 2.9 megatons LCE, and a high case at 5.4 megatons LCE, which equate to roughly 4 TWh and 7.6 TWh. Could the demand in 2030 be up to 7.6 TWh? Absolutely. 7.6 TWh would be an average growth rate of 34% per year, which is less than the average growth rate over the last 6 years, so it's fairly reasonable. Furthermore, it's not just reasonable historically, but also backed up by the 8.5 TWh of Gigafactory capacity that's already been announced for 2030. 7.6 TWh of demand from 8.5 TWh of capacity would mean a fairly high utilization rate for those factories of 89%. That is, it doesn't accommodate much for things like downtime, yield loss, and production ramps.
总的来说，看起来Lithium Americas利用了简化版的benchmark minerals数据，取得了良好的效果。然而，让我们来看一下benchmark minerals最新的预测，提供更详细的信息。首先，2030年的需求预测显示了两个主要路径，一个基础情景为2.9兆吨锂碳酸盐当量(LCE)，一个高情景为5.4兆吨LCE，大约相当于4 TWh和7.6 TWh。2030年的需求是否可能达到7.6 TWh？当然可能。7.6 TWh的需求将平均年增长率为34%，低于过去6年的平均增长率，因此相当合理。此外，这不仅从历史上看合理，还得到了已宣布的8.5 TWh Gigafactory产能的支持。8.5 TWh的产能中需求7.6 TWh将意味着这些工厂的利用率相当高达89%。也就是说，这并没有考虑停机时间、产量损失和生产上升的因素。

As said, more Gigafactories are being announced each year. Last year, rather than 8.5 TWh of Gigafactory announcements, there was only about 6.7 TWh. That is, the desire and or need is there for a huge amount of battery cells later this decade, and it's growing every year.
正如所说，每年都会有更多的超级工厂被宣布。去年，与其它8.5太瓦时的超级工厂宣布相比，仅有大约6.7太瓦时。也就是说，这个十年后需要大量电池电芯的愿望和需求是存在的，而且每年都在增长。

The question is, will there be enough lithium, other materials, capital, and talent to get those factories off the ground? More on that later in the video.
问题是，将会有足够的锂、其他材料、资本和人才来使这些工厂真正运作起来吗？在视频的后面会有更多相关内容。

Next, let's look at supply. Benchmark tracks every lithium mine in the world along with the plans of each mine, and then they assign a probability on the likelihood that each mine will go into production for a given year. There's seven categories of supply. Operating supply is production supply expansions at mines that are currently operating. Secondary supply is actually recycled material, which is often neglected in supply forecasts. Karen maintenance supply results from improvements to existing supply sources, and so it's so minimal that it doesn't really show on the graph. Brownfield supply expansion, which I mentioned briefly earlier, is expansion near existing mines. Beyond that, there's highly probable, probable, and possible expansions in supply from greenfields mining projects, which are new mines.
接下来，让我们来看一下供应情况。Benchmark追踪全世界所有的锂矿以及每个矿的计划，并为每个矿石进入生产的可能性分配概率。供应可分为七个类别。运营供应是当前正在运营的矿山的产量扩展。次级供应实际上是回收材料，这在供应预测中经常被忽视。卡伦维护供应是从现有供应源的改进中产生的，但它非常少，实际上在图表上几乎看不到。前文简要提到的棕地供应扩展是指在现有矿山附近的扩展。此外，还有来自绿地矿山项目的供应可能会有高度可能、可能性和可能性扩展。这些是指新的矿山。

Now that we have a basic understanding of the two primary demand scenarios and the basic elements that make up supply, let's look at how the data is evolving over time.
现在我们对两种主要的需求情景以及构成供应的基本要素有了基本了解，让我们来看看数据随着时间的推移是如何变化的。

For the dashed gray line, I asked Cameron Perks at Benchmark to overlay their demand forecast from three years ago to get a feel for how the landscape has shifted over time. As you can see, the base case demand scenario has shifted upwards, and if my thinking is correct and demand is close to the high case demand scenario, then a manned curve is starting to look more like an S-curve. And that's exactly what we should expect from the key component of a new technology like EVs, the same adoption curve that many other technologies have followed. The question is, will this adoption curve be hampered by the supply of raw materials? More on that later.
对于虚线灰线，我请Benchmark公司的Cameron Perks将他们三年前的需求预测与其叠加，以了解市场格局如何随时间变化。正如您所见，基本需求案例的情景发生了上移，如果我的想法是正确的，需求接近高需求案例，那么人员曲线将开始更像是一个"S"形曲线。这正是我们应该从新技术如电动汽车的关键组成部分期待的，与许多其他技术遵循的采用曲线相同。问题是，这种采用曲线是否会受到原材料供应的阻碍？稍后再谈。

So if Benchmark's demand line has shifted upwards, has their supply forecast also shifted upwards? Yes. This graph from about three years ago shows that supply and demand are roughly aligned until about 2027, and then demand breaks away from supply around 2028 when supply is at around 1.4 megatons. The new graph with up-to-date data also shows supply and demand roughly aligned until about 2027, and demand also breaks away from supply around 2028. But it happens when demand is at about 2.2 megatons rather than 1.4 megatons. That is, the shapes of the graphs are nearly identical, but over the past three years supply and demand have drifted upwards by over 50%, which is a pretty huge variance. What's going on here? Why did the lithium forecast change so much between 2020 and 2023? In my view, there's three primary factors. Let's take a look.
所以，如果Benchmark的需求曲线向上偏移，他们的供应预测是否也向上偏移了？是的。大约三年前的这张图显示，供应和需求大致在2027年之前保持平衡，然后在2028年左右需求突然超过供应，当时供应约为1.4兆吨。根据最新的数据，新图表也显示供应和需求在2027年左右大致保持平衡，然后需求再次超过供应。但这次发生在需求约为2.2兆吨时，而不是1.4兆吨。也就是说，图表的形状几乎相同，但在过去三年中，供应和需求增加了50%以上，这是一个相当大的差异。这里发生了什么？为什么在2020年和2023年之间锂预测发生了如此大的变化？在我看来，有三个主要因素。我们来看一下。

First, as I'll explain later in the video, between 2018 and 2020 there was a demand crash for lithium, which caused surplus lithium supply to the point where some lithium miners idled some of their production capacity. When demand started returning in 2021, it was just a matter of cranking the dial to increase supply. That is, benchmark minerals 2020 supply forecast was hiding latent supply due to weak demand. Supply usually doesn't exceed demand because selling when demand is weak can mean selling at break-even or at a loss. That in turn means supply and demand tend to move in unison and only diverge when lithium supply comes up short. Other than vice versa.
首先，在视频中，我将在稍后解释的内容中提到，在2018年到2020年期间，锂的需求大幅下滑，导致锂供应过剩，以至于一些锂矿工停用了部分生产能力。当需求在2021年开始回升时，只需要简单地转动控制开关来增加供应。也就是说，基准矿物公司2020年的供应预测掩盖了由于需求疲软而存在的潜在供应。由于在需求疲软时销售可能会导致无利可图甚至亏损，供应通常不会超过需求。这意味着供应和需求往往会同步变化，只有在锂供应不足时才会有所偏离。而反过来也是一样。

The second factor that caused benchmark minerals forecast to be revised upwards is that the high lithium prices of the past two years have driven the development of new mining projects. As we'll see, a lot of that new supply contains fish hooks and includes caveats, but the market is responding. What all this means is the circumstances have changed for both supply and demand and the forecasts have had to adapt.
导致Benchmark Minerals预测上调的第二个因素是过去两年高锂价格推动了新采矿项目的发展。如我们所看到的，很多新供应存在一些问题并附带一些警示条件，但市场做出了回应。所有这些意味着供应和需求的情况发生了变化，预测不得不做出调整。

The third factor that caused benchmark minerals forecast to be revised upwards was the forecasting methodology itself. As I said earlier, benchmark minerals tracks every lithium mine in the world along with the plans of each mine as well as Gigafactory announcements. Their data set is robust. However, they don't build factors into their forecast that can't be predicted. Like the effect of high prices on supply growth, how many new Gigafactories will be announced or the impact of rapidly emerging supply in regions like China and Africa that have shorter lead times. That means that so long as we're in a supply constrained environment, both supply and demand forecasts for lithium are likely to continue to undershoot actual supply and demand.
导致Benchmark Minerals预测上调的第三个因素是预测方法本身。如我之前所说，Benchmark Minerals追踪全球每个锂矿以及每个矿山的计划，还有Gigafactory的公告。他们的数据集非常可靠。然而，他们的预测中不会考虑那些无法预测的因素，比如高价对供应增长的影响、有多少新的Gigafactory将会宣布建设，以及像中国和非洲这样供应迅速增长但交货时间短的地区的影响。这意味着只要我们处在供应紧缺的环境中，锂的供应和需求预测很可能继续低估实际的供应和需求。

If that's the case, what's the point of forecast for lithium supply and demand? If you're a player in the lithium industry, it tells you what the future looks like based on all the information currently available. That is, it's a benchmark. It's a starting point for understanding an analysis, not the end game. For example, the forecasting data can be combined with pricing data and cost of production data to develop growth, production and pricing strategies.
如果是这样的话，预测锂供需有什么意义呢？如果你是锂行业的参与者，它告诉你基于目前所有可获得信息未来的情况。也就是说，它是一个基准。它是理解和分析的起点，而不是终点。例如，可以将预测数据与定价数据和生产成本数据相结合，以制定增长、生产和定价策略。

What if you're a Tesla investor? We can use the forecast to frame up high and low end boundaries for lithium supply and then take a closer look at potential lithium supply from all sources to see where actual lithium supply might fall within that range. From there we can factor in Tesla's plans and see where Tesla's plans start colliding with potential supply issues.
如果你是特斯拉的投资者，我们可以利用预测结果，确定锂供应的上限和下限，并进一步审视各个来源可能提供的锂供应，以确定实际的锂供应可能处于哪个范围内。然后，我们可以考虑特斯拉的计划，看看特斯拉的计划何时开始与潜在的供应问题产生冲突。

For the low end boundary, I've set global lithium supply in 2030 at 3.5 TWh, which is the current upper lithium supply target for benchmark minerals. I'm setting that as the bear case number because lithium supply forecasts have been creeping upward as lithium supply responds to demand. If the 3.5 TWh bear case came to pass, it would make life difficult for Tesla because their 3 TWh target for battery consumption in 2030 would be about 86% of the global market, which isn't realistic.
对于最低边界，我将2030年全球锂供应设置为3.5 TWh，这是基准矿物公司当前对锂供应的上限目标。我将这个数字视为悲观情况，因为随着锂供应对需求的响应，锂供应预测一直在逐渐增加。如果3.5 TWh的悲观情况成为现实，这将给特斯拉带来困难，因为他们在2030年对电池消耗的目标为3 TWh，相当于全球市场的86%，这是不现实的。

For the high end boundary, I've set global lithium supply in 2030 at 7.6 TWh, which is benchmark minerals high demand case forecast. I'm setting that as the bull case number because it's higher than any bull case I've seen, but still a reasonable 34% average annual growth rate.
对于高端边界，我将2030年全球锂供应设定为7.6太瓦时，这是Benchmark Minerals的高需求案例预测。我将这个数字设定为乐观案例，因为它高于我所见过的任何乐观案例，但仍然是一个合理的34%的平均年增长率。

If the bull case came to pass, Tesla's 3 TWh target for battery consumption would be about 39% of the market, which would make Tesla's life a lot easier. In the next video, we'll do a deep dive into every potential major source of mined lithium for the rest of the decade, how each source could affect the lithium supply, and therefore get a better feel for where lithium supply could fall within the bull to bear range.
如果股票看涨的情况成真，特斯拉的电池消耗目标3太瓦时将占据市场的约39%，这将使特斯拉的生活变得轻松许多。在接下来的视频中，我们将深入探讨本十年剩下的每一个潜在的主要锂矿源，每个源头如何影响锂供应，从而更好地了解锂供应可能在看涨到看跌范围内的位置。

That's all for today, but before I close out the video, as I said at the beginning of the video, if you can, toss a coin to your witcher. The information I've provided today is, to my knowledge, the most comprehensive video on lithium supply out there. Other reports that are available on the market can cost thousands of dollars, and by comparison, if this video does well, I expect it to make less than a thousand dollars from YouTube ad revenues.
今天就到这里，但在结束视频之前，跟我在视频开始时说的一样，如果你能的话，给你的维奇猎人投个硬币。据我所知，我今天提供的信息是关于锂供应最全面的视频。市场上其他可获取的报告可能要花费数千美元，而相比之下，如果这个视频表现良好，我预计从YouTube广告收入中只能赚不到一千美元。

It's the supporters who contribute directly that make the channel possible. On that note, a special thanks to Lucius, George Geese, Jeff Raymer, Jim Higgins, and Bill for your generous support of the channel, my YouTube members, Twitter subscribers, and all the patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all your support, and thanks for tuning in.
正是那些直接做出贡献的支持者们使得这个频道得以存在。在这一点上，我要特别感谢Lucius、George Geese、Jeff Raymer、Jim Higgins和Bill对频道的慷慨支持，以及我的YouTube会员、Twitter订阅者和所有出现在制作名单中的资助者。我非常感谢大家的支持，并感谢大家的收看。