JP Morgan 2023 Q2 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-07-15 07:13:29 来源
中英文字稿 
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, welcome to JB Morgan Chase's second quarter 2023 earnings call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go to the live presentation. Please stand by.
早上好，女士们先生们，欢迎参加JP摩根大通2023年第二季度收益电话会议。本次会议将被录音。在会议期间，您的线路将被静音。现在我们将开始直播演示，请稍作等候。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JB Morgan Chase's chairman and CEO Jamie Diamond and chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.
在此刻，我想将致电交给摩根大通银行的董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙以及首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆。巴纳姆先生，请开始。
Thanks operator. Good morning everyone. Presentation is available on our website and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.
谢谢操作员。大家早上好。演示文稿已经在我们的网站上提供，请参阅背后的免责声明。
Starting on page one, the farmer reported net income of $14.5 billion, EPS of $4.75 on revenue of $42.4 billion and delivered an ROTCE of 25%. These results included the federal government's budget for the public, where I can purchase a gain of $2.7 billion, a credit reserve bill for the first public lending portfolio of $1.2 billion, as well as $900 billion of net investment securities losses in corporate.
从第一页开始，该农民报告了净收入145亿美元，每股收益4.75美元，收入为424亿美元，并实现了25%的ROTC（回报率资本雄厚）。这些结果包括了公众购买收益为27亿美元的联邦政府预算、首次公开借贷投资组合借贷储备法案额度为12亿美元，以及公司净投资证券损失为900亿美元。
Touching on a few highlights, TCB client investment assets were up 18% year on year. We had a record long-term $1.5 billion in the financials. Before we give you a brief update on the status of the first public integration on page two.
简要提及几个重点，TCB客户的投资资产年度增长了18%。我们在财务方面创下了创纪录的长期15亿美元。在给您在第二页上对首次公开整合的状态进行简要更新之前。
The settlement process of the FDIC is on schedule, the number of key milestones being recently completed. The system's integration is also proceeding at pace and we are targeting being substantially complete by mid-2024. First Republic employees have formally joined us as of July 2nd and we are pleased to have a very high acceptance race on our offers. And although it's still early days, as we get the sales force back in the market, we are happy to see that client retention is strong with about $6 billion of net deposit imposed since the acquisition.
美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的清算进程正在按计划进行，最近已经完成了许多关键里程碑。系统的整合工作也在加快进行中，我们的目标是在2024年中期之前实质性地完成整合。第一共和银行的员工自7月2日起正式加入我们，我们对员工对我们的提议非常满意。虽然现在还很早，但是随着销售团队重新进入市场，我们很高兴看到客户保留率较高，自收购以来净存款增加约60亿美元。
Now, turning back to this quarter of results on page three. You'll see that in various parts of the presentation, we have specifically called out the impact of first republic, where relevant. To make things easier, I'm going to start by discussing the overall impact of first republic on this quarter's results at the firm-wide level. Then, for the rest of the presentation, I will generally exclude the impact of first republic in order to improve comparability with prior periods.
现在，让我们回到第三页关于本季度的结果。在演示的不同部分，我们专门提到了第一共和国的影响，只有在相关的情况下。为了方便起见，我首先将讨论第一共和国对公司整体水平本季度结果的整体影响。然后，在接下来的演示中，我将一般不包括第一共和国的影响，以便提高与之前时期的可比性。
With that in mind, in this quarter, first republic contributed $4 billion of revenue, $599 million of expense, and $2.4 billion of net income. As noted on the first page, this includes $2.7 billion of bargain purchase gain, which is reflected in NIR in the corporate segment, as well as $1.2 billion of allowance bill. And remember that the deal happened on May 1st, so the first republic numbers only represent two months of results.
考虑到这一点，在本季度，第一共和银行贡献了40亿美元的收入、5.99亿美元的费用和24亿美元的净收入。正如第一页所提到的，其中包括27亿美元的廉价购买收益，这反映在公司部门的净投资回报中，以及12亿美元的容忍账单。还要记住，交易发生在5月1日，因此第一共和银行的数字仅代表两个月的结果。
You'll see in the line of business results that we are showing first republic revenue and allowance in CCB, CV, and AWM. And for the purposes of this quarter's results, all of the deposits are in CCB, and substantially all of the expenses are in corporate. As the integration continues, some of those items will get allocated across the segments.
您将在业务成果中看到，我们在CCB、CV和AWM中首次展示了第一共和国的收入和拨备金。而在本季度的成果中，所有存款都属于CCB，几乎所有的开支都归属于公司。随着整合的继续进行，其中的一些项目将会被分配到各个业务领域中。
Now, turning back to firm-wide results, excluding first republic, revenue of $38.4 billion was up $6.7 billion for 21% a year on year. And AI X markets was up $7.8 billion or 57% driven by higher rates. And IR X markets was down $293 million, largely driven by the net investment security losses I mentioned earlier, largely offset by a number of less notable items primarily in the prior year. And markets revenue was down $772 million or 10% a year on year.
现在，回到整个公司的业绩方面，不包括First Republic的收入为384亿美元，同比增长67亿美元，增长率为21%。而AI X市场的收入增长了78亿美元，增长率为57%，主要受到较高的利率的推动。而IR X市场的收入下降了2.93亿美元，主要是受到我之前提到的净投资证券损失的影响，但同时也得到了去年一些较不显著的因素的部分抵消。而市场收入同比下降了7.72亿美元，下降率为10%。
Expenses of $20.2 billion were up $1.5 billion or 8% a year on year, primarily driven by higher compensation expense, including wage inflation and higher legal expense. And credit costs of $1.7 billion included net charge-offs of $1.4 billion predominantly in card. The net reserve bill included a $389 million bill in the commercial bank, a $200 million building card, and a $243 million release in corporate, all of which I will cover in more detail later.
去年的开支为202亿美元，同比增长15亿美元或8%，主要推动因素是较高的补偿支出，包括工资膨胀和较高的法律费用。信用成本为17亿美元，其中包括主要在信用卡领域的14亿美元净核销。净准备金账单中包括了商业银行的3.89亿美元账单、信用卡的2亿美元账单以及公司的2.43亿美元释放，我稍后将对此进行更详细的解释。
On to balance sheet and capital on page four. We ended the quarter with the C-21 ratio of 13.8% black versus the prior quarter. As the benefit of net income less distributions was offset by the impact of first republic. And as you can see in the two charts on the page, we've given you some information about the impact of the transaction on both RWA and C-21 ratio.
在第四页上，关于资产负债表和资本的内容。我们本季度结束时的C-21比率为13.8%，相比上一季度有所下降。由于净收入减去分配收益的好处被第一共和银行的影响所抵消。如您在页面上的两个图表中所看到的，我们向您提供了有关该交易对风险加权资产和C-21比率的影响的一些信息。
And as you know, we completed a C-car a couple of weeks ago. Our new indicative SCB is 2.9% versus our current requirements of 4%. And it goes into effect in fourth year 23. The new SCB also reflects the board's intention to increase the dividend to $1.05 per share in the third quarter.
正如您所知，我们在几周前完成了一辆C型车。我们的新指示性小额资本缓冲率（SCB）为2.9%，而我们当前的要求为4%。该缓冲率将在2023年第四季度生效。新的SCB还反映了董事会有意在第三季度将股息增加至每股1.05美元。
On liquidity, our bank LCR for the second quarter ended at 129% in line with what we anticipated an investor day. About half of the reduction is associated with the first republic transaction.
在流动性方面，我们银行第二季度的流动性覆盖率（LCR）为129％，与我们在投资者日所预期的一致。其中约一半的减少与第一共和国交易有关。
And while we're on the balance sheet, as we previewed in the 10K, we will be updating our earnings at risk model to incorporate the impact of deposit reprising lags. So when we release this quarter's 10K, you will see the up 100 basis point parallel shift scenario will be about positive two and a half billion. Whereas in the absence of the change, it would have been about negative one and a half.
而且在我们谈到资产负债表时，正如我们在10K中预览的那样，我们将更新我们的风险收益模型，以纳入存款重新定价滞后的影响。因此，当我们发布本季度的10K时，您将看到在100个基点平行转移的情况下，预计为正25亿美元，而在没有这个变化的情况下，预计为负15亿美元。
Now, let's go to our businesses starting with C-C-B on page five. Both US consumers and small businesses remain resilient. And we haven't observed any meaningful changes to the trends in our data we discussed at investor day. Turning now to the financial results which I will speak to excluding the impact of first republic for C-C-B, C-B, and A-W-L.
现在，让我们来看看我们的业务，从第五页开始，那是关于C-C-B的。美国消费者和小型企业仍然具有韧性。我们在投资者日讨论过的数据趋势方面没有观察到任何有意义的变化。现在转向财务结果，我将在谈到C-C-B、C-B和A-W-L的第一共和国影响之外进行说明。
C-C-B reported net income of $5 billion on revenue of $16.4 billion goes out 31% year on year. In banking and wealth management, revenue was out 59% year on year driven by higher NII on higher rates. End of period deposits were down 4% quarter on quarter as customers continue to spend down their cash buffers including for seasonal tax payments and seek higher yielding products. Line investment assets were up 18% year on year, driven by market performance and strong net inflows across our advisor and digital channels. In home lending, revenue was down 23% year on year, driven by lower NII from tighter loan spreads and lower servicing and production revenue. Originations were up for run quarter driven by seasonality although still down 54% year on year. Moving to card services and auto, revenue was up 5% largely driven by higher card services and I-I on higher revolving balances partially offset by lower auto leasing costs. Card out standings were up 18% year on year which was the result of a fall normalization and long new account growth. And then auto, originations were up 12 billion, up 71% year on year as competitors pulled back and inventories continue to slowly recover. Expenses of 8.3 billion were up 8% year on year driven by compensation predominantly due to wage inflation and headcount growth as we continue to invest in our firm office and technology staffing as well as operating.
C-C-B 报告了净收入达50亿美元，营收为164亿美元，同比增长了31%。在银行和财富管理方面，营收同比增长了59%，主要受益于利率上涨带来的利息净收入增加。期末存款同比下降了4%，因为客户继续使用他们的现金储备，包括为季度税款支付，并寻找高回报产品。投资资产同比增长了18%，受益于市场表现良好以及顾问和数字渠道的净流入增加。在房屋贷款方面，营收同比下降了23%，主要是由于较低的贷款利差和较低的服务和生产收入所致。虽然同比下降了54%，但贷款起始量在本季度得到了增加，受季节性因素的影响。在信用卡和汽车方面，营收增长了5%，主要是由于信用卡服务和利息收入增加，部分抵消了汽车租赁成本的下降。信用卡未偿余额同比增长了18%，这是因为新账户增长和既有账户逐渐正常化所致。而汽车方面，起始量同比增加了120亿美元，增长了71%，因竞争对手撤退以及库存逐渐恢复。支出达83亿美元，同比增长了8%，主要是由于薪资膨胀和员工数量增加所致，因为我们继续投资于公司办公室和技术人员，并进行运营。
In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were 1.5 billion reflecting a reserve bill, 203 million driven by loan growth and card services. Net charge offs were 1.3 billion, up 640 million year on year, predominantly driven by card as 30 day plus delinquencies have returned to pre-pandemic levels in line with our expectations.
就信贷表现而言，本季度信贷成本为15亿美元，其中有20.3亿美元是由贷款增长和卡片服务所推动的差额准备。净核销额为13亿美元，比去年同期增加了6.4亿美元，主要是由于卡片业务引起的。与我们的预期一致，因为逾期30天以上的拖欠已经回到了疫情前的水平。
Next, the CIB on page 6. CIB reported net income of 4.1 billion on revenue of 12.5 billion. The cost of banking revenue of 1.5 billion was up 11% year on year or down 7% excluding bridge book markdowns in the prior year. I-B fees were down 6% year on year and we ranked number one with a year to date wallet share of 8.4%. And advisory fees were down 6% for debt and up 30% for equity with more positive momentum in the last month of the quarter. In terms of the second half outlook we have seen encouraging signs of activity and capital markets and July should be a good indicator for the remainder of the year. However, year to date announced M&A is down significantly which will be a headland. Moving to markets, total revenue was 7 billion down 10% year on year. Big thing almost down 3% as expected the macro franchise substantially normalized from last year's elevated levels of volatility and climb flows. This was largely offset by improved performance in the secured as products group and credit. Equity markets was down 20% against a very strong prior year quarter particularly in derivatives. Payments revenue was 2.5 billion up 61% year on year. Excluding equity investments it was up 32% were not only driven by higher rates partially offset by lower deposit balances. Security services revenue from 1.2 billion was up 6% year on year driven by higher rates partially offset by lower fees. Expenses of 6.9 billion were up 1% year on year driven by higher non-compensation expense as well as wage inflation and head count growth largely offset by lower revenue related compensation.
接下来，在第6页，CIB报告了净收入为41亿美元，收入为125亿美元。银行收入成本为15亿美元，同比增长11%，去除去年桥梁账本的减值后下降了7%。对投资银行费用（I-B fees）同比下降了6%，我们的钱包份额达到了8.4%，在今年截至目前的表现中位居第一。咨询费用中，债务方面下降了6%，股权方面增长了30%，本季度最后一个月的增势更强。在下半年的展望方面，我们已经看到了活动和资本市场的令人鼓舞的迹象，7月份应该是今年剩余时间的一个很好的指标。然而，截至目前，宣布的并购交易大幅下降，这将是一个挑战。转向市场方面，总收入为70亿美元，同比下降10%。主要原因是宏观领域的团队业务从去年高涨的波动性水平和资金流出中大幅恢复正常。这在很大程度上被债券和信贷产品组表现的提升所抵消。股权市场同比下降了20%，尤其是衍生品市场，去年同期非常强劲。支付收入为25亿美元，同比增长61%。排除股权投资后，同比增长32%，主要受到较高的利率部分抵消了存款减少的影响。证券服务收入为12亿美元，同比增长6%，主要原因是较高的利率部分抵消了费用的减少。费用方面，为69亿美元，同比增长1%，主要因为非薪酬支出的增加、工资通胀和员工数量的增长，这些部分被较低的与收入相关的薪酬所抵消。
Moving to the commercial bank on page 7. Commercial banking reported that income of 1.5 billion dollars. Revenue of 3.8 billion was up 42% year on year driven by higher deposit margins. Payments revenue of 2.2 billion was up 79% year on year driven by higher rates. Gross investment banking and markets revenue of 767 million was down 3% year on year primarily driven by fewer large M&A deals. Expenses of 1.3 billion were up 12% year on year predominantly driven by higher compensation expense including front office hiring and technology investments as well as higher volume related expense. Average deposits were up 3% quarter on quarter driven by employees related to new client acquisition partially offset by continued attrition and non operating deposits.
移至第7页的商业银行。商业银行报告了1.5亿美元的收入。收入达到了38亿美元，同比增长了42%，这是由于存款利差较高所推动的。支付收入为22亿美元，同比增长了79%，这是由于利率较高所推动的。总体而言，投行和市场部门的毛收入为7.67亿美元，同比下降了3%，这主要是由于较少的大型并购交易所致。支出为13亿美元，同比增长了12%，主要是由于高额的薪酬支出，包括前台招聘和技术投资，以及与业务量相关的支出。平均存款环比增长了3%，这主要是因为与新客户收购有关的员工增加，部分抵消了持续减少的存款和非营运存款。
Loans were up 2% quarter on quarter. C&I loans were up 2% reflecting stabilization and new loan demand and revolver utilization in the current economic environment as well as pockets of growth in areas where we are investing. C&I loans were also 1% reflecting funding on prior year originations for construction loans in real estate banking as well as increased affordable housing activity. Finally, credit costs were 400 and maybe 9 million. Med charge-offs were 100 million including 82 million in the office real estate portfolio and the net reserve build of 389 million was driven by updates to certain assumptions related to the office real estate market as well as net downgrade activity in middle market banking.
贷款按季度上涨2%。公司和工商业贷款上涨2%，反映了当前经济环境中稳定和新贷款需求的增长以及我们投资的领域出现的增长机会。公司和工商业贷款也上涨1%，这反映了房地产银行在前一年度放贷建筑贷款上增加的资金，并且还增加了经济适用房活动。最后，信贷成本为400万，可能是900万。中等损失为1亿，其中包括8100万在办公房地产组合中，3890万的净准备金建设是由于对办公房地产市场相关假设的更新以及中等市场银行的净降级活动所致。
Then to complete our lines of business AWM on page 8. Asset and wealth management reported net income of 1.1 billion with pre-tax margin of 32%. Revenue of 4.6 billion was up 8% year on year driven by higher deposit margins on lower balances and higher management fees on strong net inflows. Expenses of 3.2 billion, growth 8% year on year driven by higher compensation including growth in our private banking advisor teams, higher revenue related compensation and the impact of global shares in JB Morgan asset management and the demand both of which closed within the last year. For the quarter record net long-term inflows were 61 billion positive across all channels, regions and asset classes led by fixed income inequities and in liquidity we saw net inflows of 60 billion. AWM of 3.2 trillion was up 16% year on year and overall net income assets of 4.6 trillion were up 20% year on year driven by continued net inflows higher market levels and the impact of the acquisition of global shares. Finally loans were down 1% quarter driven by lower securities based lending and deposits were down 6%.
然后在我们的业务线AWM上，资产和财富管理报告了净收入达到了11亿美元，税前利润率为32%。收入为46亿美元，同比增长了8%，主要是因为存款利差较高，管理费用也因为净流入较强而增加。支出为32亿美元，同比增长了8%，主要是因为薪酬增加，包括我们的私人银行顾问团队的增长、与收入相关的薪酬增加，以及过去一年中JB摩根资产管理业务和需求的全球份额的影响，这两者均已关闭。本季度，净长期流入创下了纪录，净流入为610亿美元，覆盖了所有渠道、地区和资产类别，其中固定收益和股票类资产引领了增长，流动性资产净流入为600亿美元。资产和财富管理总额为3.2万亿美元，同比增长了16%，总净收入资产为4.6万亿美元，同比增长了20%，这是由于持续的净流入、市场水平较高以及全球份额收购的影响。最后，贷款下降了1%，主要是因为证券质押贷款减少，而存款下降了6%。
Turning to corporate on page 9. As I noted up front we are reporting the first republic Oregon purchase gain and substantially all of the expenses in corporate. Excluding those items corporate reported net income of 339 million. Revenue was 985 million up 905 million compared to last year. NI was 1.8 billion up 1.4 billion year on year due to the impact of higher rates. NI was a net loss of 782 million and included the net investment security losses I mentioned up front. Expenses of 590 million or up 384 million year on year largely driven by higher legal expense. In credit costs were net benefit 243 million reflecting reserve release of the deposit place with first republic in the first quarter was eliminated.
在第9页转向公司。正如我在前面提到的，我们报告了第一共和国俄勒冈州的收购收益，并将几乎所有的费用都计入了公司开支。除去这些项目，公司报告的净收入为3.39亿。收入为9.85亿，比去年增加了9.05亿。净收入为18亿，同比增长了14亿，这是由于更高的利率影响。净收入为负7.82亿，其中包括我前面提到的净投资证券损失。费用为5.9亿，同比增长了3.84亿，主要是由于法律费用的增加驱动。信贷成本净受益为2.43亿，反映了在第一季度与第一共和国存放的储备释放。
Next the outlook on page 10. We now expect 2023 NIi and NIi X markets to be approximately 87 billion. The increase driven by higher rates coupled with slower deposit repriced and previously assumed across both consumer and wholesale. And I should take the opportunity to remind you once again that significant sources of uncertainty remain and we do expect the NIi run rate to be substantially below this quarter run rate at some point in the future. Competition for deposits plays out. Our expense outlook for 2023 remains approximately 84.5 billion and on credit we continue to expect the 2023 charge off rate to be approximately 2.6%.
下一页是关于2023年NIi和NIi X市场的展望。我们预计市场规模将达到约870亿美元。推动增长的因素包括更高的利率以及消费者和批发业务之间较慢的存款重新定价以及先前的假设。我应该再次提醒您，目前仍存在重大不确定性，并且我们预计将来的NIi增长率在竞争存款方面会大幅下降。我们对2023年的费用展望仍然保持在约845亿美元左右，而在信贷方面，我们继续预计2023年的坏账率约为2.6%。
So to wrap up we are proud of the exceptionally strong operating results this quarter. As we look forward we remain focused on the significant uncertainties relating to the economic outlook, competition for deposits and the impact on capital from the pending finalization of the Basel III rules. Nonetheless despite the likely headwinds ahead we remain optimistic about the company's ability to continue delivering excellent performance through a range of scenarios. With that operator please open the line for Q&A. Please stand by.
总结一下，本季度我们为出色的运营业绩感到自豪。展望未来，我们仍然关注经济前景的重大不确定性、存款竞争以及巴塞尔三号规则的最终确定对资本的影响。尽管未来可能面临一些不利因素，但我们对公司在各种情况下继续提供出色表现的能力保持乐观。请主持人打开Q&A的线路。请稍候。
The first question is coming from the line of Jim Mitchell from C-Port Global Securities. You may proceed. Thanks. Good morning. You talked about NIi guidance clearly fed funds futures are up. So maybe I guess first could you discuss comment on deposit behavior broadly around betas and mix and what you are seeing there so far seems to be coming in a little better expected.
第一个问题来自C-Port全球证券的吉姆·米切尔。您可以继续。谢谢。早上好。您刚才谈到NIi指引，联邦基金期货明显上涨。所以我猜首先您能否讨论一下存款行为，广义上的贝塔和混合，以及您目前观察到的状况是否比预期略好一些。
Secondly and probably more importantly can you help us think about the implications of higher for longer rates on the outlook for NI next year and beyond. I guess the intermediate term outlook that you guys have talked about. Yeah sure thanks Jim. So when we talk about the drivers of the upper provision as I said it's higher rates coupled with lower deposit reprice, hard to untangle the two drivers and specifically I think when you look at the consumer the combination of the passage of time and the positive feedback we are getting on the field and the CD offerings in particular has meant that it's quite a stable environment from that perspective and similarly in wholesale we are just seeing slower internal migrations. You asked about mix. I think that obviously we are seeing the CD mix increase and we would continue to expect we would expect that to continue to take place probably even past the peak of the rate cycle into next year as we continue to capture money in motion. But as you say the most important point is the fact that as I said earlier we don't consider this level of an ion generation to be sustainable and we talked previously about a sort of medium term run rate in the mid 70s that was before for the public and argue that maybe that number should be a little higher but whatever it is it's a lot lower than the current number. We don't know when that's going to happen. We're not going to predict the exact moment that's going to be a function of competitive dynamics in the marketplace but we want to be clear that we do expect it at some point.
其次，也许更重要的是，你能帮助我们思考长期利率对明年及以后北爱尔兰经济前景的影响吗？我想你们已经谈到了中期前景。是的，谢谢Jim。当我们谈到影响资本准备金的因素时，我说过是利率上升和存款再定价下降所致，这两个因素难以分开解析。具体来说，我认为当我们看待消费者时，时间的推移以及消费者对理财和定期存款产品的积极反馈意味着从这个角度来看，现在环境相当稳定。同样，在批发业务方面，我们只看到内部迁移较慢。你问到了产品组合。我认为我们显然看到定期存款产品组合在增加，而且我们预计在明年乃至利率周期高点之后，这种趋势可能会持续下去，因为我们会继续吸收资金流动。但正如你所说，最重要的一点是，正如我之前所说，我们不认为这种盈利水平是可持续的，我们之前曾谈到过中期运行水平大约是70%左右，尽管有人认为这个数字可能会更高，但无论如何，它都远低于目前的水平。我们不知道具体时间，我们不会预测什么时候会发生，这将取决于市场竞争动态，但我们要明确表示，我们确实预期会在某个时刻出现。
Okay but I guess just one follow up on that just if we don't get rate cuts sorry until middle of next year or later does that sort of give some confidence to the outlook for next year or are you still worried about significant reprise? I wouldn't necessarily assume that the evolution from the current run rate into that mid 70s number is that sensitive to the rate outlook in particular. When we put that number out there we looked at a range of different types of rate environments and the reprise that we think would be associated with that. It was really meant to capture more of what we consider to be able to the cycle sustainable number so I wouldn't think of it as being particularly rate dependent. Okay great thanks.
好的，但是我猜只有一个对此进行跟进的问题，就是如果我们在明年年中或之后没有降息，那么这是否给明年的前景带来一些信心，或者你仍然担心有重大调整？我不会特别认为从当前增长率过渡到70年代中期的数字对于利率前景特别敏感。当我们提出这个数字时，我们考虑了一系列不同类型的利率环境和与之相关的调整。这个数字实际上更多地意味着我们认为可以维持周期的数字，所以我不会认为它特别依赖于利率。好的，谢谢。
Next we'll go to the line of Erica Nazarian from UBS. You may proceed.
接下来我们将进入瑞银UBS的Erica Nazarian的发言环节。请继续。
Hi good morning Jeremy and I'm just laughing to myself because I said to you and I said to you any more NII rabbits to pull out of the hat and I guess you do. So I guess I want to ask a broader question really here and maybe Jamie I'd like to get your thoughts so you know you earned 23% ROTCE on 13.8% CT1 and you know we hear you loud and clear that your more normalized NII generation is not 87 billion. You know not being said and you know fully taking into account you know the potential you know haircut from BOGL 3 end game you know is it possible that your natural ROTCE is maybe above that 17% through the cycle rate you know when rates aren't zero because when you first introduced that ROTCE target you know we were in a different role from a rate scenario and everybody's talking about even if the fed cuts the natural sort of bottom in fed funds is not going to be zero so you know any input on that would be would be great.
嗨早上好，Jeremy，我刚才在自己笑，因为我对你说过这话了，我说你还会再有什么“小把戏”，但我猜你确实有。所以我想问一个更广泛的问题，也许Jamie，我想听听你的想法，你知道你的13.8% CT1获得了23%的ROTCE，我们很清楚地听到了你的声音，你更加正常的利息净收益(NII)并不是870亿。考虑到BOGL 3终局带来的潜在影响，你认为你的自然ROTCE在整个周期中可能高于17%吗？因为当你首次提出ROTCE目标时，我们正处在一个不同的利率情景下，而现在大家都在讨论即使联储会降息，联邦基金的自然最低点也不会降到零，所以如果你对此有任何看法，我会很欢迎。
Yeah thanks our gummy answer a good question as well and obviously I guess I would start by saying that you know when we've talked about the 17% through the cycle ROTCE even though we may have introduced that in a moment where we were at the lower zero bound it was always premised on a sort of normalized rate environment and at some level that remains true today. Furthermore you know you didn't ask this explicitly but in the context of the proposed BOGL 3 end game you know one relevant question might be if you have a lot more capital in the denominator what happens to that target so I think as I said I might refer to it more if you feel very confident about the company's ability to produce excellent returns to the cycle there's a lot of moving parts right now on that some of them could be good some of them could be bad.
是的，谢谢我们的较果冻回答了一个好问题，显然我想我会开始说，你知道当我们谈论17%的循环ROTCE时，即使我们可能是在较低的零界点时引入它，但它始终是基于一种标准化的利率环境，并且在某种程度上，这个情况如今仍然是真实的。此外，虽然您没有明确提问，但在提出BOGL 3最终目标的情境下，可能有一个相关的问题，即如果分母中有更多的资本，那么这个目标会发生什么变化，所以我认为，如果你对公司能够在周期内产生出色回报的能力非常有信心，那么我可能会更多地提到它，目前有很多变动因素，其中一些可能是好的，一些可能是坏的。
Narrowly on the capital one the one thing to point out is that the straight-up math simply diluting down the ROTCE by expanding the denominator misses the possibility of re-price you know re-pricing of products and services which of course goes back to our point that these capital increases do have impacts on the real economy so we're not suggesting that we can price our way out of it but we obviously need to get you know the right returns on products and services and where we have pricing power we will we will adjust to the higher capital so a lot of moving parts in there but I think the important point is that through our range of scenarios we feel good about our ability to deliver good results and we'll see how the mix of all the various factors plays out especially when we see the bus will be proposed all and it goes through the common period.
在关于资本一方面，需要指出的是，仅仅通过扩大分母来简单地削弱ROTCE（股本回报率），忽视了产品和服务重新定价的可能性。当然，这也回到了我们的观点，即这些资本增加确实对实际经济产生影响，所以我们并不是在暗示我们可以通过定价方式解决问题，但显然我们需要在产品和服务上获得合适的回报，并且在我们具备定价能力的地方，我们会相应地调整更高的资本。其中有很多因素需要考虑，但我认为重要的是，通过我们的一系列情景，我们对自己能够产生良好的成果感到满意，尤其是当我们看到公众期间提出的所有问题的混合物时，我们将会看到各种因素的组合如何发挥作用。
And Eric I just did one thing first we have a mix of businesses that earn from like 0% ROTCE to 100 we have so much are very capital and tensile so we look at kind of all of them and I think that is a good number and a good target there's even over early on is credit you know we've been over in credit for a substantial amount of time now and I'm quite conscious about it we know that's going to kick off just as normalize it'll be more than now like you know we would consider credit card normalized to be close to three and a half percent.
嗯，Eric，我首先做了一件事情，我们的业务组合从0%的ROTC到100%都有。我们有很多资本密集型和丰厚回报的业务。所以我们审视了所有这些业务，我觉得这个数字是一个很好的目标。我们早期就意识到信贷的重要性。我们已经在信贷领域有相当长的时间了，我对此非常清楚。我们知道一旦信贷正常化，它将有新的增长，远超过现在的水平。我们认为信用卡的正常化利润率会接近3.5%。
And so my follow-up question there maybe Jeremy could you remind us what unemployment rate is embedded in your ACL ratio as of the second quarter?
所以，我的跟进问题是，也许杰里米能够提醒一下我们，截至二季度，你的ACL比率中嵌入了什么失业率？
Yeah still 5.8.
是的，仍然是5.8。
Next we'll go to the line of John McDonald from Autonomous Research. You may proceed.
接下来我们将转到独立研究公司的约翰·麦克唐纳德的发言环节。请继续。
Hi good morning Jeremy wanted to ask about capital in the wake of the bar speech we don't have the details yet but just kind of want to ask about options that you have and strategies for mitigation both on RWA and potentially on the G-SIB front as well as you contemplate what you heard recently.
嗨，早上好，Jeremy想在发布酒吧演讲之后询问关于资本方面的问题。我们还没有具体的细节，只是希望了解一下你现在拥有的选择和减灾策略，无论是在RWA方面还是在G-SIB方面，以及你在思考最近听到的内容时的考虑。
Yeah thanks John so obviously we're thinking about that a lot on the other hand as much as there have been a lot of very detailed rumors out there that might need you to start to try to do some planning it does seem like this time it's real and we are actually going to get a proposal generally sometime this month or something. So soon enough we'll get to see something actually on paper and we can stop kind of the guess word. Having said that indulging in a little bit of guess work it does seem like the biggest single driver of the increase that people are talking about including you know chair pals 20% number or vice chair bar but vice chair bars 2% of our UIA which winds up being roughly the same is just the way operational risk is getting introduced into the standardized pillar and that is a little bit of a straight up across the board tax on everything it's kind of hard to optimize your way out of that with the exception obviously the fact that you can simply increase price assuming you have pricing power but that's obviously not what we want and that's what we sort of mean by impacts on the real economy.
是的，约翰，非常感谢。很明显，我们对此问题考虑得很多。另一方面，虽然有很多非常详细的传言，可能需要你开始做一些规划，但看起来这次情况是真实的，我们确实会在这个月或某个时间得到一个提案。所以很快我们就能看到一些实质性的文件，我们可以停止猜测了。话虽如此，稍微猜测一下，似乎人们所说的增加最大的原因，包括你提到的Chair Pals的20%数字或Bar副主席的2%数字，与操作风险在标准化支柱中的引入有关。这对任何事情都是纯粹的普遍性税收，很难通过优化摆脱这个问题，除非你有定价能力并能够简单地提高价格，但显然这不是我们想要的，这就是我们所说的对实体经济的影响。
So there are details there's a lot of the FRTV stuff you know we can get way into the market we there within the markets business and we do have a good track record of adjusting and optimizing but this time around it may be a more fundamental set of questions around business mix as opposed to you know the ability to sort of optimize or create technical way. Okay that's helpful and with a number of years for this to phase in and you are generating capital at a high level even if the ROTC comes down a bit.
所以细节上有很多FRTV相关的内容，我们可以深入市场，在市场内做生意，并且我们在调整和优化方面也有良好的纪录，但这一次可能是与业务结构相关的一系列更为根本的问题，而不仅仅是优化或创建技术的能力。好的，这很有帮助，并且你们还有几年的时间来逐步实施，并且即使ROTCL下降一点，你们仍然以很高的水平产生资本。
How should we think about your pace of you know building capital for these new changes versus doing your everyday course of investing and buybacks and things like that in you know the next couple years. Yeah I mean I guess I'm sort of tempted to give you our standard capital hierarchy here I mean we're not going to start investments right if you that won't come as a surprise to you. Generally speaking we're always going to try to comply with new requirements early so when we know the requirements and when we have visibility obviously given how much we're going to capital we're generating right now whatever the answer winds up being it'll be pretty easy to comply narrowly speaking but that's not the same as saying that there won't be consequences to returns or to pricing and you know if for whatever reason things aren't exactly as we're anticipating I don't see us sacrificing investments that we see us strategically critical in order to you know comply with with higher capital requirements ahead of ahead of the formal timing or whatever.
在未来几年中，你们在建立资本以应对新变化的速度和日常投资、回购等行为应该如何考虑呢？嗯，我想我可以给你们介绍一下我们的资本层级结构，我想你们不会对此感到意外。一般而言，我们总是尽早遵守新要求，当我们知道这些要求并且有了可见性时，显然，鉴于我们正在创造多少资本，不管最终结果是什么，遵守要求应该是相当容易的，但这并不意味着这不会对回报或定价产生后果，如果由于某种原因事情不如我们预期，我认为我们不会牺牲战略性关键性的投资，以便在正式时间之前或者提前遵守更高的资本要求。
Okay and there's some room for buyback. That would be an unlikely outcome. Okay thank you. Sorry Sean go ahead. Do buybacks play a role you know in the next couple years strategically just episodically buybacks. I mean you know capital hierarchy again right in the end you know when we have nothing else to do with the money we'll do buybacks and you know we talked about the twelve billion dollars for this year. Obviously a lot of new moving parts there although all of the people given what we've done so far that's still probably a reasonable number off of the full year. But yeah that's always going to be at the end of the list but yeah. Got it. Okay thank you.
好的，还有一些空间可以进行回购。这将是一个不太可能的结果。好的，谢谢。对不起，肖恩你继续。未来几年中，回购会在战略上起到一定作用，只是偶尔回购。我的意思是，在资本层次结构中，当我们没有其他能做的事情时，我们会进行回购。我们已经提到了今年的120亿美元。显然，有很多新的变数，尽管根据我们到目前为止所做的一切，那仍然可能是一个合理的数目。但是，是的，这总是排在最后。知道了，好的，谢谢你。
Next we'll go to the line of Ken Oostin from Jeffries. You may proceed. Thanks good morning I just wanted to ask a little bit about how you're feeling about the trade off between like the commercial economy and what might come through in terms of future loan growth versus the kind of green shoots that people are talking about in the investment banking pipeline and just how it feels in terms of like reopening of markets and the trade up between you know getting some over those fees in and versus what's happening on the loan demand side. Thanks. Sure good question Ken so I think in terms of investment banking and markets. Yeah so you know it's better than expected last month. A lot of talk about green shoots especially in capital markets generally still definitely some headwinds and M&A you know lower amounts activity some regulatory headwinds there so we'll see I think it's a little too early to call a trend there based on recent results but we'll see.
下一位发言者是来自杰富瑞的Ken Oostin。请继续。早上好。我想问一下，您对商业经济与未来贷款增长之间的权衡感觉如何？相比之下，人们谈论的投资银行业务线上的良好迹象以及市场重启之间的平衡如何？感谢。好的，很好的问题，Ken。就投资银行和市场而言，上个月情况比预期好。关于绿色新芽的讨论很多，特别是在资本市场方面，但仍然存在一些阻力，尤其在并购交易中，活动水平较低，还有一些监管方面的阻力。因此，我认为现在判断趋势还为时过早，要根据最近的结果来看。我们拭目以待。
In terms of the broader economy and loan growth expectations generally we do still expect reasonably robust card loan growth but away from that for a variety of different reasons and different products whether it be mortgage or C&I after revolving normalization you know and especially if we see a little bit of a cooling off of the economy I would expect loan demand to be relatively modest there so we're not really expecting meaningful growth away from card but of course you know we're there for the right deals right products right terms you know we lens with the cycle so I see that as more of a demand driven narrative which will be a function of the economy rather than a many tightening on our side. That makes sense and as a follow up to that you know on the consumer side you mentioned that consumers continues to spend albeit a little more slowly and you mentioned that consumers are also using their excess deposits a little bit more as well can you just elaborate a little bit more on just your feeling about the state of the consumer and is that is that card growth you know continue to be driven by people needing to revolve as opposed to you know wanting to have more in their deposits just kind of what the tradeoff on that side too. Yeah I mean to us I think we still see this as a normalization not deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit actually revolve per account has still not gotten to pre-pandemic levels actually so I would definitely say there's a wanting rather than needing at least for our portfolio at this point and yeah you know I think that consumer continues to surprise on the upside here. Got it okay thank you.
就整体经济和贷款增长预期来看，我们确实预计信用卡贷款增长还是相当强劲的，但是由于各种不同原因和不同产品的影响，比如按揭贷款或者C＆I贷款，在经济出现一定冷却的情况下，贷款需求可能相对较低，所以我们对信用卡以外的领域并不预期有实质性的增长。当然，对于合适的交易、合适的产品和合适的条款，我们会参考整个经济周期。在我看来，这更多是需求驱动的叙述，这将取决于经济而非我们方面的严格限制。这是有道理的，对于消费者方面，您提到消费者继续购物，尽管速度放缓了一些，并且还提到消费者正在更多地使用他们的存款，可以再详细说明一下您对消费者状况的感觉吗？这个信用卡增长是否继续受到人们需要循环使用信用卡的驱动，而不仅仅是他们希望在存款中有更多余额的驱动，这方面有什么权衡吗？嗯，对我们来说，我认为我们仍然把这视为正常化而非恶化的故事，当涉及到消费者信用的时候，实际上每个账户的信用卡使用率仍未达到疫情前的水平，所以我可以确定地说，至少对于我们的投资组合来说，消费者更多是想要而非需要。是的，在这方面，我认为消费者继续给人们带来意外的积极影响。好的，谢谢您。
Next we'll go to the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets please go ahead.
接下来我们将听取来自RBC资本市场的Gerard Cassidy的发言，请开始。
Good morning Jeremy good morning Jamie. Jeremy can you give us your view on how you're measuring the treasury functions and the asset liability of your balance sheet as we go forward versus the way you guys were positioning and managing it a year ago in view of the fact that it looks like maybe we're approaching the terminal rate on fed funds rates.
早上好，杰里米，早上好，杰米。杰里米，你能告诉我们你如何评估国库职能和资产负债表中的资产负债状况，以及与一年前相比，你们如何进行定位和管理，考虑到我们可能接近联邦基金利率的终端利率这一事实？
Yeah Gerard I would say honestly not much change there actually you know we've been pretty consistently concerned about the risk of higher rates of course we always start to position things to produce reasonable outcomes across a broad range of scenarios but at the margin we've been biased towards higher rates and that may be a little less true at these levels than it was before although a lot of that is just the consequence of positive convexity playing out in the modeling but in any case you know all else equal I think we are going to continue to focus on making sure we're fine in a higher rate scenario while staying balanced across a range of scenarios so not really a lot of change in our positioning and that's obviously including the fact that we took on first republic which you know even net of some of the liabilities had a long structural industry position we did not actually want to get longer as part of the deal and so as a result we took actions to ensure that we are still about the same as we were last quarter.
嗯，杰拉德，实话实说，实际上并没有太多变化。我们一直对利率上升的风险保持一致的关注，当然我们始终致力于在多种情况下取得合理的结果。但是在边际上，我们更倾向于高利率，尽管这很大程度上仅是正凸度在建模中的结果导致的。无论如何，其他方面都相等，我认为我们将继续专注于确保在高利率情景下依然处于平衡状态，这样我们的配置不会有太大变化。显然，这还包括我们接管第一共和银行这件事，尽管我们在考虑了一些债务后，该行在行业结构上拥有很长的位置。实际上，我们并不希望在交易中变得更加长期，因此我们采取了一些措施，以确保我们在上个季度与现在基本相同。
Very good and then as a follow up you mentioned in giving us the read through on the commercial banking segment of the business that you had some reserve building tied to some office real estate and also some downgrades in the middle market area can you go a little deeper what are you guys seeing in this area of both commercial real estate but also the sea and islands what's happening in that segment as well.
非常好，接着你在给我们关于商业银行业务的介绍中提到了与办公地产有关的储备构建以及中型市场领域的降级。能否再深入一些，你们在这个商业地产领域以及海洋和岛屿领域看到了什么情况。
Yeah so I would caution you from drawing too broad a conclusion from this I mean I think that when we talk about office for example you know our portfolio as you know is quite small and our exposure just sort of so-called urban dense office is even smaller the vast majority of our overall portfolio is multi-family lending. So as a result like our sample size of observed valuations on office properties is quite small but you know we'd like to be sort of ahead of the cycle and based on everything that we saw this quarter it's felt reasonable to build a little bit there to get to what felt like a comfortable covered ratio. You know across the last of the year in the middle market segment we saw downgrades and excessive upgrades but I don't see that as sort of necessarily indicative of anything terribly significant in the broader read-a-cross.
嗯，所以我建议你不要从中得出过于广泛的结论。我的意思是，当我们谈论办公室时，我们的投资组合规模相当小，而我们在所谓的城市密集办公楼方面的投资规模更小。我们整体投资组合中绝大多数是多家庭贷款。因此，我们对办公楼物业的观察样本数量相当小，但根据我们本季度所见，觉得在这方面稍微投入一点是合理的，以达到一个舒适的覆盖率。从去年市场中部市场细分来看，我们看到了降级和过度升级，但我不认为这对整体情况有什么特别重要的示意。
Thank you. Next we'll go to the line of Steve Chubach from Wolf Research please go ahead.
谢谢。接下来我们将转到来自沃尔夫研究的Steve Chubach的线路，请开始。
Steve you there. It looks like his line dropped. So next we'll go to the line of Ibrahim Punawala from Bank of America. You may proceed.
史蒂夫，你还在吗？看起来他的线断了。接下来我们将转到美国银行的易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉的线路上。你可以继续进行。
Good morning. I guess just first question following up on the outlook for the economy like we've all been worried about a recession for a year and there's a debate about the lag defects of the Fed rate hike cycle. When you think about Jeremy I think you mentioned you are an unemployment outlook relatively similar today versus a quarter ago. How worried should we be in terms of the credit cycle six to 12 months from now or are you leaning towards concluding that maybe US businesses, consumers have absorbed the rate cycle a lot better than we expected a year ago?
早上好。我想首先问一下关于经济展望的问题，我们都担心经济衰退已经有一年了，并且有关美联储加息周期滞后效应的辩论。当你考虑到杰里米时，他说到你对失业状况的看法与一个季度前相比差别不大。从现在开始的6到12个月内，我们应该对信用周期有多担忧？或者你更倾向于得出结论，也许与我们一年前的预期相比，美国企业和消费者更好地吸收了利率变化周期？
Yeah so I'm sure Jamie has some views here but in my view I would just caution against jumping to too many super positive conclusions based on a couple of recent prints. I think generally our point is less about trying to predict a particular outcome and more about trying to make sure that we don't get to much euphoria that over concentrates people on one particular prediction when we know that there's a range of outcomes out there. So obviously people are talking a lot about the potential for soft landing right now. No landing, immaculate to simplition or whatever and whether our own views on that have changed meaningfully I don't know but the broader point is that we continue to be quite focused on Jamie's prior comments that loss rates still have time to have room to normalize even post pandemics or probably over earning on credit a little bit. Obviously we've talked about the expectation that the NII is going to come down quite a bit so even forgetting about whether you get some surprisingly negative outcomes on the economy from what we've done today even in the central case you just need to recognize that there should be some significant normalization.
是的，我确定Jamie在这方面有一些观点，但在我看来，我只是警告不要根据最近的几次成果就跳出太多极其积极的结论。我认为我们的观点主要不是试图预测特定的结果，而是要确保我们不会因为过度关注某个特定的预测而陷入过度喜悦的状态，因为我们知道实际情况有很多不同的结果。所以显然现在人们对于软着陆的潜力谈论很多。没有着陆，完美地简化或其他任何形式，我们对此是否有了新的看法我不清楚，但更重要的是，我们继续关注Jamie之前的评论，即亏损率在疫情后仍有时间恢复正常，甚至可能在信贷上实现超额收益。显然，我们已经谈到了净利息收入会大幅下降的预期，所以即使不考虑从今天开始是否会对经济产生一些令人惊讶的负面结果，即使是在中心案例中，你必须认识到应该会有一些显著的恢复正常。
Yeah and I would just add the 5.8% is not our prediction that is the average of the unemployment under multiple scenarios that we have to use which are hypothetical to see so. If you have to predict it if you're looking with something different and we don't know the outcome we're trying to be really clear here the consumers in good shape are spending down their excess cash that's all tailwinds.
是的，我想补充一点，5.8％并不是我们的预测，而是我们必须使用的不同情景下失业率的平均值，这些情景都是假设性的。如果你要预测它，假设你所看到的情况有所不同，我们并不知道结果，我们试图在这里非常清楚地表达：消费者状况良好，他们正在消耗过剩的现金，这是所有的有利因素。
If people are going to recession they're going with rather good conditions low borrowings and how the price value is still but the headwinds are substantial and somewhat unprecedented. The smaller Ukraine oil gas, climate tightening, unprecedented fiscal needs of governments, huge teams we've never experienced before. I just think people should take a deep breath in that. We don't know what those things could put us as soap landing in mild recession or a hard recession and obviously we should all hope for the best.
如果人们陷入经济衰退，他们将面临相当不错的条件，低借贷以及价格稳定，但是困难和前所未有的挑战也是相当巨大的。像乌克兰的石油和天然气、气候变化限制、政府前所未有的财政需求、以及我们从未经历过的庞大团队。我认为人们应该冷静下来。我们不知道这些事情会把我们带往轻微的经济衰退还是严重的经济衰退，当然我们都希望能够得到最好的结果。
And just to follow up on the upcoming Basel reforms, two questions you've talked about the impact to the US economy like others have said the same. At this point if that's falling on deaf ears and secondly maybe Jeremy if you can touch upon just structural changes that you expect to make in the capital markets business because of FRTB. Thank you.
关于即将到来的巴塞尔改革，我想补充提两个问题。你已经谈到了巴塞尔改革对美国经济的影响，正如其他人所说的一样。现在这种影响是否被忽视了？其次，也许杰里米你可以谈一下由于FRTB而预期在资本市场业务中会做出的结构性变化。谢谢。
Yeah so on your first point I mean you know I think you can just read Vice Chair Barr's speech right he addressed that point fairly directly. He clearly doesn't agree as this is right. So we'll see what happens. We continue to feel that all else equal higher capital requirements definitely are going to increase the cost of credit which is bad for the economy. So we'll see what happens on that.
嗯，关于你提到的第一点，我的意思是你可以直接阅读Barr副主席的讲话，他已经明确回答了这个问题。显然，他并不赞同这一点。所以我们将等待看看接下来会发生什么。我们仍然认为，其他因素相同的情况下，更高的资本要求肯定会增加信贷成本，对经济不利。所以我们将拭目以待。
On FRTB it's really very nuanced. It's probably like two months of detail for this call to be honest but just to give you like one immaterial and insignificant but useful example you know one product under FRTB is yield curves right options and you know if the FRTB proposal goes through as currently written that product is becomes not viable. So obviously if we need to stop doing that product no one really cares but it's just one example of the way sometimes when you're really disciplined about allocating capital thoroughly all the way down to products and responding accordingly you can wind up having to change your business mix.
在金融委员会对银行风险交易标准（FRTB）的讨论非常微妙。说实话，为了详细解释这个问题可能需要大概两个月的时间，但只是举一个不相关但有用的例子吧。你知道，在FRTB下有一个产品叫做收益曲线期权，如果按照目前的拟议通过FRTB，这个产品将变得不可行。所以，显然如果我们需要停止该产品，没人会真的在意，但这只是一个示例，说明当你在资本分配方面非常严格，并相应做出调整时，你可能不得不改变你的业务组合。
There are obviously more significant products that matter much more for the real economy like mortgage where you know the layering on the operational risk and the way it's being proposed especially if some of the other beneficial elements of the proposal don't come through you know you're once again making the product even harder to offer the homeowner. So we'll see we'll see what happens. I would just say that so the product you can go product doesn't make money you might do it for clients who are great clients. You're going to manage by product by client and by effectively business mix and those adjustments roughly loans don't make sense for you balance as a whole almost any loan and you know we that's it's just people have to recognize that and you know some of the matters of all the various complications here and you're going to know what the other do. Thank you.
显然，对于真实经济来说，还有更为重要的产品，比如抵押贷款，你知道操作风险的层层叠加以及提出的方式，尤其是如果方案中的其他有益因素都不能实现，就会使产品变得更难为房主提供。所以我们将拭目以待，看看会发生什么。我只想说，如果产品无法赚钱，你可能会为一些优质客户做，你将按产品、按客户和有效的业务组合进行管理，并进行相应的调整，大致来说，大多数贷款对你的整个平衡来说都没有意义，我们必须认识到这一点，还有其他各种复杂情况，你会知道其他人会怎么做。谢谢。
Next we'll go to the line of bike mail from Wells Fargo securities you may proceed.
接下来我们将介绍富国银行证券的自行车邮件业务，请继续。
Hi I had another question on vice chair bars speech from this week. To the extent the capillaries do go up 20% for you and perhaps others to what degree would you think about changing your business model in terms of remixing where you do business re-pricing or simply you know removing activities that you used to do it's kind of ironic or maybe it's not ironic that Apollo hits an all-time stock price high the same week as the speech so does that how much business leaves Jake Morgan or the industry if capillaries to go up as much as potentially proposed.
嗨，我对副主席巴尔本周的演讲还有一个问题。如果Capillaries股价上涨20%，你和其他人是否会考虑调整你的业务模式，重新规划做生意的地点、重新定价或者简单地去除你过去所做的一些活动。阿波罗（Apollo）股价在同一周达到历史最高点，这或许有点讽刺，或者说并不讽刺。如果Capillaries股价上涨得如此之多，这会导致多少业务流失给摩根大通（Jake Morgan）或整个行业呢？
Yeah. Before Jeremy answer question I thought this is great use for hedge funds, private equity, private credit, Apollo, Blackstone and you know and there's a lot of people who are going to get the chance in the streets.
是的，在杰里米回答问题之前，我认为对于避险基金、私人股本、私人信贷、阿波罗、黑石等等，这是一个很好的利用方式，而且街上会有很多人有机会参与。
Yeah. Exactly and I was going to say my yes to everything so meaning re-pricing yes definitely to the extent that we have pricing power and the higher capill requirements mean that we're not generating the right returns for shareholders we will try to re-price and we'll see how that sticks and how that flows into the economy and how that affects demand for products and if the re-pricing is not successful then in some cases we will have to remix and that is getting out of certain products and services and as Jamie points out that probably means that those products and services leave the regulated perimeter and go into you know elsewhere and that's fine as Jamie points out those people are clients and I think that point was addressed also in vice-chair bar speech so but you know traditionally having risky activities leave the regulated perimeter has had some negative consequences so these are all things to consider.
是的，完全正确，我本来打算对一切都说“是”，这意味着我们会重新定价，当然前提是我们具备定价权，并且更高的资本要求意味着我们没有为股东创造合适的回报。我们将尽力重新定价，看看能否起到作用，对经济产生什么样的影响，以及对产品需求产生何种影响。如果重新定价不成功，在某些情况下，我们将不得不剔除特定产品和服务，正如杰米所指出的，这可能意味着这些产品和服务离开监管范围，并转移到其他地方，根据杰米的观点，这些人是客户，我认为这个观点在副主席巴尔的讲话中也已经得到了回应，但传统上，将风险活动移出监管范围会产生一些负面后果，所以这些都是需要考虑的因素。
All right and separate question yeah I'm I appreciate the investor today gives a little bit more color on the degree that your investment may or may not pan out and you know we we are still all watching that closely having said that you just increased revenue guidance by 10 billion for NI I between this quarter and the first quarter without changing expense guidance by even one dollar aren't you tempted to spend a little bit more why not spend more if you're gaining share and I I'm not saying you should I'm just wondering like aren't you tempted to do so you have 10 billion dollars more revenues you're not spending one dollar more of expenses like why not. Mike let me get this right you're actually complaining that our expenses aren't high enough is that right? Wait just just be clear I'm just a flip side of the question I asked for two years you know going back to that I appreciate the balance now I know seriousness we've always been pretty clear right that our spending is through the cycle spending based on through the cycle investment through the cycle spending based on our through the cycle view of the earnings generating power of the company and the gold to produce the labor term so broadly speaking NI tends to flow straight through to the bottom line both when it's going up and by the way when it's going down to and we've been through those moments as you all remember so whether or not there are opportunities to deploy some more dollars into you know marketing and stuff like that we have actually looked at that recently I don't see that being a meaningful item this year which is part of why we have not revised the expense guidance so far but you know this is about investing through the cycle and being honest and disciplined about which which revenue items flow you know carry expense loading and which of them don't. And that's my quick follow up.
好的，另外一个问题，对了，我很感激投资者今天在你的投资可能成功或失败的程度上提供了更多的信息，我们仍然密切关注这个问题。话虽如此，你刚刚把NI I的收入指引增加了100亿美元，区别于上一季度，而没有改变任何费用指引，难道你不想多花一点吗？如果你正在获得份额，为什么不多花一点呢？我并不是说你应该这样做，只是好奇为什么你不这样做。你有100亿美元的额外收入，你没有增加一美元的开支，为什么不呢？麦克，我理解你真的在抱怨我们的开支不够多，是这样吗？等一下，只是为了澄清，我只是提出了另一个问题的反面。两年来，我一直很认真地问这个问题，现在我知道了，我们一直非常清楚，我们的开支是根据周期性投资的，根据我们对公司盈利能力的整个周期的看法来进行的，目标是实现长期的利润。广泛来讲，NI的收入倾向于直接影响底线，无论是上升还是下降，我们都经历过那些时刻，正如大家都记得的那样。所以，无论是否有机会将更多的资金投入到市场营销等方面，我们最近确实考虑过这个问题，但今年我不认为这是一个重要的项目，这也是我们到目前为止没有修订费用指引的原因之一。但是，投资是长期的，我们必须诚实和有纪律，区分哪些收入项目会带来成本负担，哪些不会。这就是我快速的追加问题。
I think we're kind of running this best we came so you actually sat down with the risk we were credit compliant oil and marketing bankers recruited trainers the same but this is it you know that we're full effort right now and we want to make sure we get things right we get things thoughtful and careful so it's not such as the money is the people and how many things can you change all the ones to answer all the ones.
我觉得我们正在尽力经营得最好，所以你实际上与我们一起坐下来处理这个风险，我们是按照信贷合规的方式招募了石油和市场银行家以及培训师。不过这就是现状，你知道我们现在全力以赴，希望确保我们做事正确，考虑周全，所以不仅仅是金钱的问题，更关乎人们和有多少事情可以改变，有多少问题需要回答。
And then one quick follow up to that your efficiency ratio this quarter is you know the lowest we've seen in a long long time I guess you're saying don't extrapolate this efficiency ratio because NI will come down at some point but when you just simply look at you know you benchmark yourself against the low cost providers where do you think you're there now and where can you still go because you extrapolate this quarter you're getting closer. Yeah I mean you started yourself right you definitely can extrapolate the current numbers but I think more broadly on benchmarking ourselves to low cost providers it sort of speaks to an area that you've been interested in for a long time which is all of the investment that we're doing in technology to improve generally scalability and get more of our cost base to be you know variable versus fixed in terms of how we respond to volumes that's a big part of the reason that we're doing the investments that we're doing and modernization and cloud and AI and all the type of stuff that we talked about so I think we feel really good about our efficiency as a company but there definitely is room for improvement.
然后对此有一个快速的后续问题，本季度您的效率比率是我们很长时间以来看到的最低水平，我猜您的意思是不要将这个效率比率外推，因为净收入将会降低，但是，当您简单地看到自身与低成本提供商的对标时，您认为您现在达到了什么水平？还有哪些方面您可以进一步提高？如果您将本季度的情况外推，您会更接近目标。是的，我是指您自己开始的，您肯定可以外推当前数据，但我认为更广泛地说，与低成本提供商进行对标，这是您长时间以来一直感兴趣的领域，也是我们在技术方面进行的所有投资的一部分，以提高可扩展性、将更多的成本转变为可变成本，以更好地应对交易量，这正是我们进行投资的主要原因，也是我们进行现代化、云计算和人工智能等方面讨论的内容，因此，我们对我们公司的效率感到非常满意，但肯定还有改进的空间。
Alright thank you. Next we'll go to the line of Stephen Chewbuck from Wolf Research. You may proceed. Thanks for taking the question and apologies for the technical issues earlier. I wanted to ask on the deposit outlook just with signs that recent liquidity drawdown has come predominantly out of our RRP versus industry deposits. I just wanted to get your thoughts on what expectations you have for deposit growth in the second half both for you and even the broader industry especially as treasury issuance really begins to ramp in earnest.
好的，谢谢。接下来我们将转到Wolf研究公司的Stephen Chewbuck的问题。你可以开始了。感谢你解答问题，并对之前的技术问题表示道歉。我想就存款前景向你请教一下，最近的流动性消耗主要源自我们的RRP（逆回购协议），而不是行业存款。我想知道你对下半年存款增长有什么预期，无论是对你们自己还是整个行业，特别是随着国库发行开始真正加速。
Yeah good question Steve. So let me take a couple of things about this. So obviously our deposit numbers have bounced around a little bit as a function of some of the turmoil that we saw in regional banks as well as obviously the first public transaction but now if you look at our kind of period deposits this quarter and you project forward our core view is that we would expect a sort of modest downward trend to reassert itself from this higher starting point broadly as a function of QT blanked with the system but noting that we do have some hope for offsets by taking shares to get a couple of examples like in consumer. You know we've got some of our branch expansion markets seasoning and so their share over increase there and then wholesale we've obviously invested a lot in products and services and so we think we have compelling offerings that are helping us with mandates and so they're potentially some share offsets there but broadly we are core view remains modest deposit declines across the franchise within that you know the same thing we've noted that you know as we got through the debt ceiling and the TTA build it build has come into effect and you've seen a lot of bill issuance you know big question in the market about whether that was going to come out of reserves or come out of RFP and so far with most of the TTA build I guess the targeting 600 and they're up for 50 or something so they're almost done you know more of it than some people feared has come out of RFP so as you say I think that's a relatively good sign and highlight so the system works better when you've got you know ample supply of short data collateral you know in the front of the yield curve so that whole RFP TGA bank you know reserve dynamic is going to continue to be significant but it is good to see RFP coming down a little bit.
是的，史蒂夫，这是个很好的问题。让我来解释一下这个情况。显然，由于地区银行的一些动荡以及首次公开交易，我们的存款数量有所波动。但现在，如果你看一下我们本季度的定期存款，并向前推算，我们的核心观点是，从这个较高的起点开始，我们预计会出现一种逐渐下降的趋势，主要受到量化收缩导致的，但我们同时注意到我们有一些希望通过取得一些份额来对冲，例如在消费者领域。你知道，在我们扩张分支的市场上，我们的份额在增加。而在批发领域，我们显然在产品和服务方面投资了很多，因此我们认为我们有具有吸引力的产品和服务，帮助我们获得合同，因此在那里也可能有一些份额对冲，但总的来说，我们的核心观点是，在整个业务中存款将逐渐下降。另外，我们注意到，当我们通过了债务上限和TGA建设时，债券发行量大增，市场上有一个很大的问题，即这些债券是否会从储备金中脱出，或者会从RFP（reverse repo operations）中脱出。到目前为止，大部分TGA建设已经完成了，我想他们的目标是600亿，已经完成了450亿左右，所以比一些人担心的情况更好一些，已经从RFP中解救出来。所以，正如你所说的，这是一个相对好的迹象，突显出当你在收益曲线前端有充足的短期担保品供应时，整个系统运作更好。所以这种RFP（reverse repo operations）和TGA建设以及储备金的动态将继续发挥重要作用，但看到RFP有所下降是个好兆头。
I hope I'll call her and just follow up on card income you know revenues were muted in the quarter I was hoping you could unpack just the sources of pressure maybe more specifically how much of the drag is associated with that's 91 versus some other factors.
我希望我能给她打电话，并就卡片收入进行跟进。你知道，这个季度的收益受到了一定的压抑，我希望你能详细说明压力来源，具体来说，其中有多少是与那个91有关，还有其他因素。
Yeah so actually that card income number Steve is a little bit of a one off thing so we had a reward liability adjustment this quarter kind of a technical thing so that's just a temporary headwind and also the sequential comparison is also getting hurt by a small positive one on a item in the prior period so and obviously you know I know you guys like that a card income isn't sort of a thing that we look at that much ourselves. Can you size the reward liability impact? Why don't you get Michael to give that to you it's not that significant but it's enough to just make the sequential number look a little bit longer.
是的，实际上，Steve提到的卡片收入数字有点特殊，这是我们本季度的奖励负债调整，属于一种技术性的问题，所以这只是暂时的阻碍。此外，本期的环比对比也受到了前期某一项小的正面影响。当然，我知道你们更关注的不是卡片收入本身。你能估计奖励负债的影响吗？为什么不让Michael来告诉你，它并不是很显著，但足以使环比数字看起来稍长一点。
Great thanks for taking my questions. Next we'll go to the line of Glenn shore from Evercore ISI you may proceed. Thank you. I just want to follow up on this pricing power conversation because you've been consistent over time that you have a limited ability to sustain pricing power due to competitive landscape. But I guess my question is if not now when meaning a lot has changed on the initial side European bank side, the regional bank side. And I would think that there'd be certain businesses that you have a greater ability and willingness to push price on. And then maybe you could tie that to your comments in the press release on. What are the material what are the real world consequences for markets and then users that you're referring to when talking about material regulatory changes.
非常感谢您回答我的问题。接下来我们将转到Evercore ISI的Glenn Shore，请继续。谢谢您。我想继续之前有关定价能力的对话，因为您多次强调由于竞争环境，您的定价能力有限。但我想知道，如果不是现在，那么何时是可以推动价格的时机？意思是最初的欧洲银行和地区银行方面已经发生了很多变化。我认为在某些业务领域，您可能有更大的能力和意愿提高价格。同时，您能否解释一下在新闻稿中提到的市场和用户所指的实质性监管变化的实际后果是什么？
Sure so I'm pricing power you're right it really depends on the product and it depends on the competitive landscape across different banks. And so it's very granular it's very product specific. And you know in some cases we'll have more pricing power than in other cases. I think the overall point that we're trying to make in connection with. The end game is just that you know like we think we think the capital increases are excessive. It puts pressure on returns all of the people that obviously puts pressure on us to increase price where we can. That is generally a bad thing for the real economy and how all that plays out in detail across different products and services remains to be seen. And importantly, since we don't actually have the proposal yet so. So we need those details and sorry I forgot the second half of your question what was it.
当然，我是在定价权方面同意你的观点，这确实取决于产品以及不同银行之间的竞争情况。因此，这是非常详细和具体的，与产品相关。在某些情况下，我们可能拥有更多的定价权，而在其他情况下则没有。我认为我们想要表达的整体观点是，我们认为资本增加过多。这将对回报率施加压力，而回报率的压力显然也会对我们增加定价压力。这通常对实体经济不利，不同产品和服务的具体情况有待观察。重要的是，由于我们目前实际上还没有提案，所以我们需要了解这些细节，抱歉我忘记了你问题的后半部分，请再问一次。
Actually, I think you hit on it, so I'll just do a follow-up on a related topic. The notion of private credit doing large traditional investment grade lending activity may be part of the competitive landscape that limits the ability to push Christ. In Jamie's letter, you talked about the downside, or my question is, what's the downside if more of the mortgage credit asset-backed into mediation business is pushed out of the banking system? I mean, I guess it depends on what you mean by downside, but I just think, you know, societally speaking, I think we've seen in recent history that when home lending is happening outside the regulated perimeter, and things get bad, you know, you have economic downturns, it produces bad outcomes for individuals and homeowners and society as a whole. So, I mean, Jamie's written about this extensively. Beyond that, you know, financially, we've talked about how mortgage lending, I mean, you know, the profitability swings obviously is recently cyclical, and in the recent past, it's actually been profitable, and it was less so like the correspondent channel. Right now, it's actually picking up a little bit, but it's a thin margin business, it's challenging, and when you increase the capital requirements, it makes it even harder. So, that just becomes one of the areas where you're in that tension between remixing versus pricing power that we talked about a second ago. And it might, in fact, mean that we do less, you know, less credit available for homeowners and more regulatory risk as the activity moves outside the perimeter. Appreciate that.
实际上，我认为你说得对，所以我接下来会谈一下相关话题。私人信贷进行大规模的传统投资级信贷活动可能是竞争环境的一部分，这限制了推动发展。在杰米的信中，你谈到了负面影响，或者我的问题是，如果更多的按揭信贷资产支持中介业务被推出银行体系，会有什么不利因素？我的意思是，我猜这取决于你对不利因素的理解，但我只是觉得，从社会角度来看，我认为我们最近的历史中已经看到，当房屋贷款发生在监管外时，当情况恶化时，即经济衰退时，会给个人、房主和整个社会带来糟糕的结果。所以，我是说，杰米关于这个问题有很多论述。除此之外，从财务角度来看，我们已经讨论过按揭贷款的盈利能力，我是说，就最近的周期性来看，它实际上是有利可图的，而包括信函渠道在内的利润率较低。目前情况稍微好转了一些，但这是一个利润薄弱的业务，具有挑战性，当你增加资本要求时，它变得更加困难。所以，这只是我们在之前讨论过的重新调整与定价能力之间的紧张区域之一。事实上，这可能意味着我们提供的住房贷款更少，而活动转移到监管外会增加更多的监管风险。对此表示感谢。
Next, we'll go to the line of Betsy Graphic from Morgan Stanley, you may proceed.
接下来，我们将进入摩根士丹利银行贝琪图形的领域，请您开始。
Hi, good morning. I just wanted to unpack a little bit more the drivers of the change you outline that's coming in the 10 to Jeremy regarding the asset sensitivity going from liability sensitive to asset-sensitive. At least that's the way I read it, I just wanted to understand what the drivers that is. Yeah, sure, no problem. I mean, as you know, that's always been a challenging number, you know, it's meant as a risk management measure of source, although it's also somewhat limited in that respect. And it has been an uneven usefulness in terms of. The way that we've come to the conclusion that would improve the usefulness of the disclosure if we included in the modeling the effect of deposit re-pricing lives. And so we've done that and that just has the effect that I talked about, increases the number by about 4 billion from, you know, minus one and a half which is roughly what it was last order and would have been this quarter without the change. There's something more like two and a half. All the usual caveats apply, right? I mean, it's never the answer is going to always for any given change in rates the change in our eyes always going to be for one reason or another different from what that disclosure shows but we do our best to make the.
嗨，早上好。我只是想更详细地解释一下你提到的关于资产敏感度从长期负债敏感变成资产敏感的变化的驱动因素。至少我这样理解，我只是想了解一下这个驱动因素是什么。是的，当然，没问题。我是说，你知道的，这一直是个具有挑战性的数字，它被用作风险管理的一个指标，尽管在这方面它也有一定的局限性。在实际使用中，它的有用性是不平衡的。我们得出的结论是，如果我们在建模中考虑存款重新定价的影响，这将提高披露的有用性。所以我们做到了，这就产生了我所说的影响，将数字从大约-1.5增加了约40亿，这大致是上次的订单，在没有这个变化的情况下，本季度大约为2.5。所有通常的警告都适用，对吧？我的意思是，对于任何给定的利率变化，根据我们的眼光，答案总是会因为某种原因与披露所显示的不同，但我们会尽力做到最好。
Okay, and so is it fair for me to think about that change as a mark to market to where we are today and when I think about your forward guide here longer term you're saying look deposit betas are accelerating. So as I go through the 10 cues over the next, you know, four or five quarters I should expect that 2.5 should come down because deposit betas you're anticipating are going to be accelerating from here just trying to put those two things together. Yeah, it's a good question, it's quite a technical issue so I think in the past the way this number was constructed was to assume through the cycle betas on all the deposits. And so your notion that like the number would include deposit beta acceleration would not have been the case because it would have been using essentially terminal deposit betas or the scenario based on the forward curve and then based on a 100% shock to the forward curve. The nuance that we've introduced now is to recognize that given the shock, the re-priced beta will not be instantaneous. And so you get sort of mathematical consequences of that but I think translating that into a statement about our expectation for beta, you know, for the next 12 months relative to an AI guide might be a bridge too far, I'm not sure you can actually go looking.
好的，那对我来说，是否公平认为这种变化是对我们今天市场的标记，当我考虑你在这里的长期指南时，你说存款贝塔正在加速。所以当我在接下来的10个季度内观察时，可以预计2.5会下降，因为你预计存款贝塔会从这里加速，只是试图将这两个方面联系起来。是的，这是一个很好的问题，这是一个相当技术性的问题，所以我认为过去构建这个数字的方式是假设所有存款的周期性贝塔。因此，你认为这个数字将包括存款贝塔的加速是不正确的，因为它将使用基本上是终端的存款贝塔或根据前瞻曲线的情景来计算，并且基于对前瞻曲线的100%冲击。我们现在引入的细微差别是承认在冲击之后，重新定价的贝塔不会是瞬间发生的。所以你会得到这种数学上的结果，但我认为把它翻译成关于我们对贝塔的预期的说法，相对于AI指南的下一个12个月，可能有些困难，我不确定你能不能真的找到这方面的线索。
Right, but the but you were saying earlier deposit betas you do anticipate are going to be accelerating from here and that's part of the outlook for NII longer term to normalize in the mid 70s, is that right?
对，但是你之前提到的存款贝塔值，你预计会从现在开始加速增长，这是长期内净利息收入（NII）趋于正常化并达到70%以上的一部分，是这样吗？
Yes, but let me ask. Yes, I mean basically, yes, if the next round is going to be the beta will 30 to 40 to 50 and whatever the product is yeah that's the latter. And the 2.5 will go down over time as that actually happens if rates actually go up. The great don't have to go up to 45, maybe exactly 2.5 again. Yeah, and what I was going to say, that's just that you know that the projection of the 87 coming down to a significantly lower number contains both the element of internal migration as well as the potential which is by no means guaranteed a product level of re-price and furthermore than obviously the dynamics are a little bit different. The different business segments as you move from large corporate wholesale to consumer.
是的，但让我来问一下。是的，我的意思是基本上是的，如果下一轮是beta测试，那么产品可能会以30到40或50的价格销售，是的，就是这样。而2.5可能会随着时间的推移而下降，如果实际上利率真的上涨的话。利率不一定要达到45，可能仍然是2.5。是的，我要说的是，要知道，将87的预测降低到一个显著较低的数字，既包含了内部迁移的因素，也包含了可能但绝不是保证的产品重新定价的因素，而且显然不同的业务领域的动态也有所不同，从大型企业批发到消费者。
Okay. All right. Thank you. I appreciate it. Yep. Next we'll go to the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank. You may proceed. Good morning. So I mean your camp that eventually consumers will want more deposit rate. Sensitivity here. But I guess what would make you change your rates meaningfully so you know the top 2 banks have about 50% consumer market share loan to deposit ratios are low. Your outlook for loan growth and I think others, you know, it's fairly sluggish at least outside of card. So I get that it's common sense and that's what we've seen historically but that there really is this kind of big divergence among big banks and everybody else where you know the big banks just don't need to pay that much for deposits for you know for a reason. So what would make you change that.
好的。没问题。谢谢。我很感激。是的。接下来我们将转到德意志银行的Matt O'Connor的线上。你可以开始了。早上好。我的意思是，你们阵营认为消费者最终会希望有更高的存款利率。但我想知道是什么会让你们显著改变利率，因为你们知道前两家银行占据了约50%的消费者市场份额，贷款存款比率较低。你们对贷款增长的展望以及其他人的观点，至少在信用卡之外，都相当低迷。所以我知道这是常识，这也是我们历史上看到的情况，但在大银行和其他所有银行之间确实存在着很大的差异，也就是说大银行并不需要为存款支付那么高的利息，这是有原因的。那么是什么会让你们改变这一点呢？
Yeah, in the end, Matt, it's just feedback from the field. It's composition and feedback from the field. You know, we. I think I think every bank is in a different position about what they need. And so you have a whole range of outcomes. But remember we do the social by city. So you have different competition Arizona Phoenix and they have in Chicago, Illinois. And when you do have high interest rate products, so it's a combination of all those things. I wouldn't call it big banks for small banks and you're going to see whenever reports. Who kind of paid up a more thing than who didn't and things like that. So I look, I guys, I would take it to give them. I think it's going to say there is very little pricing power most of our business and things are going to go off. Take it to give. There's no service stand that we've ever seen in the history of banking where race didn't get to a certain point that you had to have competing products and race go through migration or direct rates or or move into CDs or money market funds. We're going to have to compete for that. You already see it in parts of our business and not in other forms.
是的，最后，马特，这只是来自实地的反馈。这是来自实地的构成和反馈。你知道，我们。我认为每家银行在他们所需的方面都处于不同的位置。所以你会得到一整套结果。但是请记住，我们按城市进行社会服务。所以在亚利桑那州菲尼克斯竞争会与伊利诺伊州芝加哥的竞争是不同的。而且当你推出高利率产品时，它是所有这些因素的结合。我不会说是大银行对小银行，你会看到报告时，会知道是谁比较支付、谁没有等等。所以我认为，我会给他们提供一个建议。我认为它会说我们的业务中几乎没有定价权，事情将会发生改变。接受建议。我们在银行业历史上从来没有见过这样的服务标准，即在利率没有达到一定程度之前，你必须提供竞争产品并进行利率迁移，或者转投定期存款或货币市场基金。我们将不得不为此进行竞争。你已经在我们的业务的某些方面看到了，而在其他方面则没有。
Okay. I don't want to 100% of matters just that it's really just about primary bank relationships. And that's the core of the strategy.
好的。我并不是要100%解决所有问题，只是关注主要的银行关系。这是战略的核心。
Yeah. I mean, again, I 100% agree, but we've never seen kind of loans deposit ratios for banks like yours this low. So you could just let the positive run off, you know, to modest amount for quite some time and make the decision not not to pay up. I know I've seen us the trade off it eventually. That's a little more complicated because that really allows that low value ratio is lower because of regulatory stuff LCR capital ratio, etc.
是的，我的意思是，再一次，我完全同意，但我们从未见过像你们这样的银行存款贷款比率如此之低。所以你可以让盈余透支一段时间，然后决定不支付。我知道最后我们就要做这个取舍。这有点复杂，因为这种低价值比率是因为监管事项LCR资本比率等。
Got it. Okay. All right. Thank you. Thanks.
明白了。好的。没问题。谢谢。谢谢。
And for our final question, we'll go to Charles Peabody from Portalese Partners. You may proceed.
对于我们的最后一个问题，我们将请来来自Portalese Partners的Charles Peabody。请开始。
Morning. Turn me on page four of your presentation. You show some liquidity metrics and there's been a, you know, meaningful deterioration or or I shouldn't say deterioration depletion of some of that excess liquidity, obviously for first republic primarily. So my question is how quickly do you want to rebuild that liquidity? Because as I look out towards 24, there's probably a half dozen variables that are going to make liquidity a premium event to have access liquidity.
早上好。翻到你演示文稿的第四页。你展示了一些流动性指标，并且明显存在一些多余流动性的恶化或者不足，显然主要是对第一共和银行而言。所以我的问题是，你希望多快重新建立起流动性？因为当我展望2024年的时候，可能有半打变量会使得流动性成为一种宝贵的资产。
So that's my first question is what's your plans for replenishing that liquidity?
那么，这是我的第一个问题：你们有什么计划来补充这个流动性呢？
Yeah, so I know we talked about this a little bit about it. And then it was yesterday, right? So, instead of my paper marks, yeah, we think about about half of the change in the bank all CR number is a consequence of her Republic and the rest of it is just the expected, you know, decrease in, in to some wide deposit is falling through into our HLA balances in the bank will see our ratio. So that's all entirely as expected. And therefore, I think that the replenishing notion is not correct.
是的，所以我知道我们稍微提到过这个话题。然后是昨天吧？所以，我想不是我的论文成绩，约一半的变化是因为她的共和党党员身份，其余的只是我们预计的，你懂的，存款减少导致ATM余额下降，这在银行的比例中是可以理解的。所以这完全是符合预期的。因此，我认为补充的观点是不正确的。
In fact, obviously we still have ample liquidity. Now, if you want to project trends forward, that's a different story, but, you know, that's sort of the business of banking will adjust accordingly in terms of our asset and liability mix across different products and to ensure, you know, compliance and the ratios and then for transparency principles, I see what it's like for us. I think we have access liquidity and the liquidity rates is slightly different. I think there's this funny recording system that we do multiple things to change this overnight. Right.
实际上，显然我们仍然有充足的流动性。现在，如果你想要将趋势向前推进，那就是另外一回事了，不过，你知道，银行业会相应地调整我们在不同产品上的资产和负债组合，以确保我们遵守合规性和比率，以及透明原则。对于我们来说，我认为我们有流动性可用，而流动性利率稍有不同。我认为有这样一个有趣的记录系统，我们需要做很多事情来改变这个情况。
So sort of wrapped into that as a follow up. If you take your 87 billion forecast for NII this year and, you know, that implies at least a quarter of maybe 22 billion of NII and you take your eventual forecast of mid 70, you know, billion of NII at some point in the future, that would imply at least one quarter of 18 billion of NII. So that's about an 18% drop. And if you hold the balance sheet steady, you're talking about, you know, a 30 basis point drop in your margin, your NIM, you know, to get to that from 22 billion to 18 billion.
所以，这个问题其实是对之前的话题进行了一种延伸。如果你把你们对今年NII的870亿美元的预测拿出来，那就至少意味着其中约有220亿美元的NII，而且你们对未来某个时间点的NII的预期是700亿美元左右，那就至少意味着有180亿美元的NII。所以这实际上是一个约18%的下降。如果保持资产负债表不变，你们可能会面临净利差下降30个基点的压力，从220亿美元降到180亿美元。
I mean, what is driving is it really the deposit or are you thinking in terms of interest reversals as credit deteriorates or is it rebuilding of liquidity and just trying to get a better sense of what the big impact is. And I would think of that as being really entirely a deposit story. It's just not that complicated. Right.
我的意思是，驱动力是什么？是存款还是你在考虑信贷恶化时的利息逆转，或者是流动性的重建，只是试图更好地了解其重大影响。而我认为这完全是一个存款故事，没有那么复杂。对吧？
I think we did this. I think it was either in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, but we put a little chart on the page. Just very simple terms. It shows like what the dollar consequences are of whatever like 10 basis point change and deposit rate paid in terms of NII run rate. So, whether it's as a consequence of migration from lower yielding to higher yielding, you know, going from 0% to a 4% CD is obviously a big impact on margin, or whether it's because, you know, savings, re prices, relatively small changes in rate there are a lot of money when you've got, you know, a couple trillion dollars of deposits. So it's really not only more complicated than that. That's why we're being so forceful about reminding people about what we expect us to take.
我认为我们做过这个。我认为它可能是在第四季度和第一季度，但我们在页面上加了一个小图表。非常简单明了。它显示了无论是利率变化的10个基点对净利润的影响，还是存款利率支付方面的美元后果。所以，无论是由于从低收益到高收益的迁移，从0%到4%的存单显然对利差有很大影响，还是由于储蓄重新定价，利率微小变化对于你拥有的数万亿美元存款来说是很大一笔钱。所以，它实际上并不仅仅是那么简单。这就是为什么我们坚决提醒人们我们对于接下来的预期是什么。
Thank you. And we have no further questions at this time. Thank you very much. Thank you all for. Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.
非常感谢你们。此时我们没有进一步的问题了。非常感谢你们。非常感谢大家。感谢大家参与今天的会议。现在你们可以断开连接并度过愉快的一天。