Toyota’s Baffling Plans Continue, Tesla Electric Progressing, China Numbers

Hey everybody Rob Bauer here and today we are going to be talking about some news on Tesla's energy plans in the UK. We've also got updated China insured vehicle numbers, more confounding updates from Toyota those never seem to end, and a few other items as well.

大家好，我是罗布·鲍尔，今天我们将讨论特斯拉在英国的能源计划的一些新闻。我们还有最新的中国投保车辆数量、来自丰田令人费解的更新（似乎永远不停止），以及其他一些内容。

Quickly looking at the stock, Tesla today rallying into close to barely finishing the green up less than a tenth of a percent closing at $269.79 while the NASDAQ was up just over half a percent. Still an underperformance seemed to be less of an impact today from the rebalancing concerns amongst the top stocks in the NASDAQ 100 like we had talked about yesterday, but six of the top seven stocks finishing positive today.

快速观察一下股票情况，特斯拉今天一直上涨，最终收盘时仅涨0.1%，收于269.79美元，而纳斯达克指数上涨了0.5%。尽管我们昨天谈到纳斯达克100中排名靠前的股票进行再平衡引发了一些担忧，但今天的表现似乎不太受影响，其中六只股票中有七只收盘上涨。

Alright, getting into the news, we'll start off with an update on Tesla Electric which of course we know Tesla has started in Texas, but has said they plan to expand over time. From a job listing noticed by the telegraph, it looks like those plans in the immediate future likely include the UK. The title of the open position according to the job listing is head of operations for Tesla Electric in retail energy based in London, England, and the tasks of the job according to the description will include the responsibility to quote scope and manage build out of all required resources, systems and processes to prepare for commercial launch of a retail electricity product in the UK.

好的，我们首先来看一下特斯拉电动汽车的最新消息，我们知道特斯拉已经在德克萨斯州开始了业务，并表示他们计划逐步扩大规模。根据《每日电讯报》注意到的一份招聘启事，从目前来看，这些计划很可能包括英国。根据招聘启事显示的职位头衔，这个开放职位是特斯拉电动汽车在伦敦设立的零售能源业务的运营负责人，根据职位描述所列任务，包括负责报价、范围和管理所有所需资源、系统和流程的建设，为在英国推出零售电力产品做好商业发布的准备。

Now of course outside of Texas, this still might seem a little bit familiar for the UK because back in 2020, Tesla had partnered with a company called Octopus Energy for a Tesla specific electric plan that integrated Tesla energy products. So perhaps not too surprising to see Tesla working towards expanding Tesla Electric in the UK where they've got some experience from this past partnership, which did end a few months ago. The update on Octopus Energy's site about Tesla Energy does say that because of current market conditions, Tesla have decided to retire the Tesla energy plan from the UK, which I think makes it pretty clear that was Tesla's decision and was very much a precursor to what we will now see from Tesla on their own.

现在当然在德克萨斯州之外，对于英国人来说，这可能还有点熟悉，因为在2020年，特斯拉与一家叫做八爪鱼能源的公司合作推出了一种特斯拉专属的电力计划，该计划整合了特斯拉能源产品。因此，看到特斯拉在英国努力推广特斯拉电力并不太令人惊讶，毕竟他们在过去的合作中已经积累了一些经验，尽管那个合作在几个月前结束了。八爪鱼能源网站上关于特斯拉能源的更新确实提到，由于目前的市场状况，特斯拉决定在英国停止特斯拉能源计划，我认为这清楚地表明这是特斯拉自己的决定，也是我们现在要看到的特斯拉的前兆。

Alright, next week got another week of data for China insured vehicle numbers, this being the first week in the third quarter, and although I briefly mentioned it yesterday, let's take a quick look as well at the last week of Q2, which was June 26th through July 2nd. Tesla did 17,400 vehicles insured which helped lead to that record quarter in China and overall, but we also talked about how the export number was a little bit lower at around 19,000 vs. 30 to 35,000 from the first couple of months of Q2. So that being said, it gives us a little bit of context for the number that we're seeing here in the first week of July, which was just 3,200 units, the fourth lowest week in the last 3 quarters, and down 82% week over week.

好的，下周会有中国保险车辆数量的另一个数据周。这是第三季度的第一周，昨天我简要提到了这个情况，那么我们也来快速看一下第二季度的最后一周，也就是6月26日至7月2日。特斯拉在那周里保险了17,400辆车，这有助于创造中国和整体上的季度销售记录，不过我们刚才也提到过出口数量有一些下降，大约只有19,000辆，相比于第二季度前几个月的30,000到35,000辆。所以说，这给我们提供了一点背景信息，可以解释为什么7月第一周的数据只有3,200辆，是过去三个季度中第四低的周数，较上周下降了82%。

So despite all the talk of unwinding the wave, this looks very much like an artifact of that wave that we've seen so many times, especially on the heels of that lower export number. So maybe still a little bit of a push from Tesla to try to maximize that quarterly number and still unwind the wave, balancing those priorities, or maybe even something as simple as this is when Tesla wanted to schedule ships for for pricing reasons or whatever else, making this in particular a heavier export week. So obviously just one week we'll continue to keep an eye on it as things come in.

尽管大家一直在谈论解决这波浪潮的问题，但这看起来非常像那个波浪潮的自然延展，我们已经多次见证过，特别是在出口数字下降之后。可能特斯拉仍然在努力推动以最大化季度数字，同时解决波浪潮的问题，平衡这些优先事项；或者甚至可能很简单，特斯拉为了定价原因或其他任何原因，想要在这周安排更多的出口船只。显然，这只是一个星期，我们会继续密切关注随着事态的发展。

Alright, we do have a couple of other quick Tesla updates, but I do want to shift to Toyota for a second because we've got some more interesting news from them. Reuters today with a headline of Toyota targets Europe, China, and Hydrogen Sales Pivot. Now, I have to admit my first reaction to reading this headline was that they were going to focus more on hydrogen in these markets than on battery electric vehicles, but that isn't what this headline is saying. It's not quite that bad.

好的，我们确实有一些关于特斯拉的其他快速更新，但是我想转到丰田那边，因为我们有一些更有趣的消息。路透社今天的标题是 "丰田瞄准欧洲、中国和氢燃料销售转型"。一开始看到这个标题时，我承认我的第一反应是他们将在这些市场更加关注氢燃料而非电池电动汽车，但标题并没有说得那样糟糕。

What they were saying is that for their hydrogen vehicle production efforts, they're going to focus more on distributing those in Europe and China versus North America. In isolation, reasonable enough, and it doesn't sound like this includes any changes to their hydrogen vehicle production plans, which are for 200,000 vehicles by 2030. Their chief technology officer saying, quote, this may be a strange way of putting it, but 200,000 is not a big number. We believe this number and more can be achieved, end quote, but that is still many, many multiples from where they are at today with about 4,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold in 2022.

他们的意思是，为了水氢车的生产，他们将更多地将重点放在在欧洲和中国分销，而不是北美。这个观点孤立来看还算合理，而且听起来并不包括对他们水氢车生产计划的任何变更，这个计划是到2030年生产20万辆车。他们的首席技术官说：引用一句话，这可能是一种奇怪的表达方式，但20万并不是一个大数字。我们相信这个数字可以实现，甚至更多，结束引述。但与2022年售出的大约4000辆氢燃料电池车相比，这仍然是一个相当大的倍数。

So sure, sell those in Europe, China, wherever I think they said something about it being better infrastructure wise, but if we brought in and out and look at it more holistically across their entire business plan, it very quickly seems to start to conflict and not make a lot of sense with the updates that we have had on their supposed battery breakthroughs within even just the last couple of weeks. We've talked a few times now about Toyota's claims of breakthroughs on solid state batteries. You release similar to claims they made five plus years ago, but even just a few days ago, the president of the Research and Development Center for Carp and Neutrality said that they believe that they can now make a solid state battery with a range of 745 miles that could charge in 10 minutes or less.

当然了，把它们卖到欧洲、中国，无论在哪里吧。我想他们说过这样的基础设施更好，但是如果我们更全面地审视他们整个商业计划，很快就会发现它开始与我们在短短几周内得到的关于他们所谓的电池突破的更新信息发生冲突，而且变得毫无意义。我们现在已经多次谈论了丰田宣称取得了固态电池突破的说法。他们发布了类似于五年前的声明，但就在几天前，负责氢能与中性研究开发中心的总经理表示，他们相信现在可以制造一种续航里程为745英里的固态电池，可以在10分钟内充电完成。

And this isn't the only such claim that they've made recently. The question is, if you could actually do that, why would you pursue hydrogen even a little bit for the light vehicle segment when the two main advantages are supposed to be and it's a little bit debatable, but supposed to be refueling time and potentially energy density. So, Toyota actually believed that these breakthroughs that they themselves are talking about, they would have no reason to continue to pursue, continue to put resources into hydrogen, which is already at best extremely questionable against today's battery technology.

最近，他们不止一次提出了这样的主张。问题是，如果你真的能做到这一点，为什么还要在轻型车领域继续推进氢燃料呢？因为氢燃料的两个主要优势被认为是加油时间和潜在能量密度，尽管这还有待商榷。所以，丰田公司实际上相信他们自己所谈论到的这些突破，他们就没有理由继续追求、投入资源进入氢燃料领域，尤其是考虑到如今的电池技术已经是最好的选择了，而氢燃料则至多是一个极具争议的选项。

To me, it seems very similar to saying that you've got a battery that's going to be able to charge in five minutes in all circumstances, and although you say that, you continue to invest heavily in battery swapping. Like if you actually had that battery, there would be no reason for battery swapping. That seems to be almost exactly what Toyota is doing here. It's just going to be more expensive, less infrastructure, lower economies of scale, probably lower safety, only for a benefit that Toyota is saying that they have already figured out with another technology. So you don't even need my skepticism or anybody else's skepticism on these battery breakthrough announcements from Toyota because you can just look at the company and what they are saying, it shows their own skepticism about their own announcements.

对我来说，这似乎很类似于说你拥有一种能在任何情况下在五分钟内充满的电池，虽然你这样说，但你仍在大量投资于电池更换。如果你真的拥有那种电池，就不会有电池更换的必要了。这似乎几乎正是丰田在这里所做的。它只会更加昂贵，基础设施更少，规模经济更低，可能安全性更低，只为了一个丰田声称已经通过另一种技术解决的好处。所以你甚至不需要我对丰田的这些电池突破声明持怀疑态度，因为你可以看看这家公司及其所说的话，这显示了他们对自己声明的怀疑。

At the beginning, I said this is another confounding update from Toyota, but maybe that's mislabeled because now it's starting to become consistent, and at this point can we say it's in any way surprising? Probably not really. The only real counter argument I can think of here is just to try to continue to develop that technology in hopes that it becomes valuable in other ways, or I guess just kind of as a hedge in case you're wrong about battery progress, which is maybe a little bit more reasonable, but if Toyota was big on hedging when they'd be a little bit further along with battery electric vehicles, which have very obviously been the single biggest risk to their entire business for a decade plus now.

起初，我说这是丰田又一个令人困惑的更新，但也许这个称呼是错误的，因为现在情况开始变得一致，这一点是否让人惊讶呢？可能并不是真的。我在这里能想到的唯一真正的反对意见就是继续开发那项技术，希望它在其他方面变得有价值，或者只是作为一种保险措施，以防你在电池进展上错误，这也许更加合理一些。但是，如果丰田真的非常看重保险的话，那么他们在电池电动汽车领域应该已经走得更远了，因为明显地，电池电动汽车已经是他们整个业务面临的最大风险十多年了。

Alright, anyway, let's move on from Toyota and back over to Tesla, and we've got a nice supercharger project to talk about here, Drive Tesla Canada reporting on a new project in Arizona that is going up with 88 superchargers. This will be the biggest supercharger station in the US outside of California and is essentially just across the road from another 36 stall supercharger location. I always think it's impressive to see these supercharging locations and just because we were just talking about hydrogen, this location is probably bigger than any hydrogen fueling station that we'll see in a long time, maybe ever, probably not a completely fair comparison given the difference in turnover time, but even factoring that in you would need what 1520 pumps or something like that at a hydrogen station, and it's kind of tough to imagine that there would be that much demand really at any point, but if I'm wrong on that, let me know.

好的，总之，让我们从丰田转回特斯拉，并且我们有一个很有意思的超级充电站项目要谈论，加拿大特斯拉驱动网报道了亚利桑那州一个正在建设的拥有88个超级充电器的新项目。这将是美国除了加州之外最大的超级充电站，而且距离另一个36个充电位的超级充电站只是隔着一条马路。我总是觉得看到这些超级充电站很令人印象深刻，刚刚我们才谈到氢燃料，这个充电站可能比我们在很长一段时间内甚至永远看到的任何一个氢燃料加油站都要大，考虑到周转时间的差异，这可能并不是一个完全公平的比较，但即使考虑到这一点，你需要大约1520个氢燃料泵，这有点难以想象会有这么大的需求，但如果我在这一点上错了，请告诉我。

Alright, last couple of quick things here, we've got some new photos of the Cybertruck testing out in California, so nothing new there, we've seen it plenty of times now, but testing continues, and Elon today tweeting an older photo of the camouflage version as well, so we'll just continue to see more excitement about the Cybertruck and hopefully this is the quarter.

好的，最后还有几件事情要说一下，我们有一些新照片展示了在加利福尼亚进行的Cybertruck测试，所以并没有什么新消息，我们已经看过很多次了，但测试还在继续，今天Elon也在推特上发布了一张该车辆的伪装版本的旧照片，所以我们将会继续看到更多关于Cybertruck的激动人心的内容，希望这是一个令人兴奋的季度。

And then today there was also a Wall Street Journal report about some investigations within Tesla about use of glass which had come up as a Bloomberg story maybe, I don't know, nine months ago. It was pretty vague at the time, but there were some questions about a specific glass purchase and the intended use case for it, the Wall Street Journal is saying that maybe it was going to be used for a house for Elon, maybe not, maybe it was like a museum, and they say the intent changed over time, so I don't really think there's many new details in here, but a headline that's getting some attention today, so I don't want to omit it, but at least with the details that we have right now, probably not something that's particularly noteworthy.

今天还有一篇华尔街日报的报道，关于特斯拉内部对玻璃使用进行的调查，这可能是九个月前彭博社的报道内容。当时报道非常模糊，但有一些关于特定玻璃采购及其预期用途的问题。据华尔街日报说，也许这些玻璃原本是为了给埃隆建房子，或者是用于博物馆，不过意图似乎随着时间改变了。我觉得这篇报道并没有提供多少新的细节，但今天却引起了一些关注，所以我不想忽略它。但目前我们所了解的细节来看，可能并不是特别值得注意的事情。

And then lastly for today, just a quick look at the calendar, we do have the CPI Consumer Price Index report tomorrow morning before market open, and then the following day we'll have the Producer Price Index or PPI report. Those can always interject some volatility in the markets, but that'll wrap it up for today, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, you can also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, July 12 episode of Tesla Daily.

最后提一下今天的事情，我们来快速看一下日历。明天市场开盘之前会发布CPI（消费者物价指数）报告，然后第二天我们会有PPI（生产者物价指数）报告。这些报告可能会给市场带来一些波动，但今天就到这儿了，感谢大家的倾听，记得订阅并设置通知，你也可以在Twitter上找到我，账号是Tesla Podcast，明天再见，下期的时间是7月12日星期三的特斯拉日报。

Thank you.

谢谢你。

bell so.

响铃一个人。