Competition: Worse Than We Thought / Giga Mexico Update / Chinese Takeover ⚡️
发布时间 2023-07-10 23:13:22 来源
摘要
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00:00 - MP Materials
1:19 - Backstory to Munro Vid
2:50 - Giga Mexico Update
3:51 - Carvana Top 10 Used EV Sales
4:10 - Cramer Parody?
4:37 - Weird Deal Reversed
5:09 - French Minister on Tesla
5:27 - Tesla Facility in Victoria, BC
5:40 - Tesla in Ireland
6:05 - Tesla China Exports
6:37 - Tesla Malaysia
7:09 - Project Highland Prototypes
7:40 - Worse Than We Thought
8:44 - China Takeover
10:04 - RJ Scaringe on R2
11:09 - Blazer SS EV Delayed
11:41 - Rolls Royce Reselling
11:53 - UAW Negotiations
13:01 - Chinese Storm Looming
13:55 - Freight Costs
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#TeslaNews #GigaMexico #Tesla
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patron, Adam V. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到《电动化之旅》，我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯(Dylan Loomis)。快速感谢一下我的最新赞助人，亚当·V。感谢您选择支持本频道。
There's a company in Southern California, MP Materials that I think belongs on all of our radars. Their mission is to restore the full rare earth supply chain to the United States of America. And right now you're probably thinking, well, Tesla's getting rid of rare earths in their next gen drive unit, so this doesn't really matter. I would push back on that by saying Tesla's still going to be making plenty of Model 3 Y SNX that may not get that new drive unit soon, if ever. And they're not just used in permanent magnet motors, but they're used in other things like cell phones, computers, screens, cameras, etc.
在南加州有一家公司，名为MP Materials，我认为它值得我们所有人的关注。他们的使命是恢复稀土供应链到美国。现在你可能在想，特斯拉在他们的下一代驱动单元中摒弃了稀土，所以这并不重要。我想反驳一下，特斯拉仍然会生产大量可能永远不会获得新驱动单元的Model 3 Y SNX。而且稀土不仅仅用于永磁电机，还用于手机、电脑、屏幕、相机等其他设备。
It's really not that these elements themselves are rare, but rather the extraction, refining, and separation of them can be quite challenging. Most importantly, and sadly no surprise, last year China accounted for an estimated 70% of rare earth output. And just six years ago, there was zero output coming from the United States. But fast forward to last year, and this one company, MP Materials, now accounts for 14% of the world rare earth output. That's all of it still coming from the US.
实际上，这些元素本身并不罕见，而是它们的提取、精炼和分离过程可能非常具有挑战性。最重要的是，令人遗憾但并不意外的是，去年中国占据了全球稀土产量的估计70%。而仅仅六年前，美国的产量还是零。但快进到去年，一家名为MP Materials的公司现在占全球稀土产量的14%。这些产量全部来自美国。
You may have seen Sandy Monroe on Twitter talking about a new discovery in Norway. Well, here's the backstory. For years now, scientists have been warning of a global phosphogetin, and this is mostly discussed when talking about fertilizers and the food industry. But if you think about phosphate and lithium iron phosphate or LFP battery technology. Basically, traditional rock phosphate reserves are relatively rare and have become depleted in line with their extraction for fertilizer production. Simultaneously, in the EV space, we're well aware of the importance of a lithium iron phosphate, and it's going to be the predominant battery cathode going forward. You can pause here to understand the difference better if you like, but the simple takeaway, phosphate is a derivative of phosphorus.
你可能在Twitter上看到过Sandy Monroe谈论挪威的一个新发现。那么，这是个背后的故事。多年来，科学家们一直在警告全球磷素短缺的问题，这主要是在讨论化肥和食品行业时被讨论到的。但是如果你考虑磷酸盐和锂铁磷酸盐（LFP）电池技术。基本上，传统的磷酸盐储备相对稀缺，并且随着提取用于化肥生产而逐渐枯竭。与此同时，在电动车领域，我们非常清楚锂铁磷酸盐的重要性，并且它将成为未来主要的电池正极材料。如果你想了解更多差异的话，你可以在这里暂停来更好地理解，但是简单来说，磷酸盐是磷的一种衍生物。
So the news now is that in Scandinavia, in Norway, about 70 billion tons of phosphorus has been discovered, and they're saying could be large enough to supply EVs, solar panels, and fertilizer for up to 100 years. Again, for years, there have been warnings of phosphate shortages. Russia controls one of the biggest deposits, some other big known deposits in Morocco, China, Iran, and Syria. Then we have a UK professor who said, we need to be a lot smarter in the way we use phosphorus. If we don't, we face a calamity.
现在的新闻是，在斯堪的纳维亚地区的挪威发现了大约700亿吨的磷，有人表示这个数量足够供应电动车、太阳能板和肥料使用100年。多年来，一直有关于磷酸盐短缺的警告。俄罗斯控制着最大的矿床之一，摩洛哥、中国、伊朗和叙利亚也有其他大型已知矿床。然后，我们还有一位英国教授表示，我们在使用磷方面需要更加聪明。如果我们不这样做，我们将面临一场灾难。
To contextualize the discovery of 70 billion tons, the global economy goes through 45 million metric tons per year.
为了将发现的700亿吨与之相联系，全球经济每年消耗4500万公吨。
The governor of Nuevo Leone gave us an update on Gigamexico saying, we don't yet have a date for when, but the good news is all permits for the environment, energy, water. Everything is already checked, it's advancing. So at any moment, we are going to give them the news that the first stone is being laid, the ground breaking we've now all been waiting for. He also added the information they have is that Tesla is in the final stage of design of the next gen vehicle, the Model 2, more affordable, whatever you want to call it. Saying, so now yes, with the design finished, what we know is that they're already finishing the production lines, the software, and everything that must be ready to start the plant. This is clearly political speak, those of us that follow Tesla closely know they're never really done or get to a final design, they're constantly iterating and making changes. So we'll take it as good news, but reading all of the tea leaves right now, I would be hoping for ground breaking sometime in Q3 of this year, and then first production starting sometime Q1 of 2025, that would be my guess right now.
Nuevo Leone州长向我们更新了Gigamexico项目的情况，他表示，我们还没有确切的日期，但好消息是环境、能源、水务等所有许可证已经全部审批通过，进展顺利。因此，随时都有可能宣布奠基仪式即将举行，这是我们一直以来期待的开工仪式。他还补充说，他们所知道的是，特斯拉的下一代车型Model 2已经进入了最后的设计阶段，这款更实惠的车型不管你怎么称呼它。他表示，现在，设计工作已经完成，我们所了解的是他们已经在进行生产线和软件的完善，以及开工所需的一切准备工作。这显然是政治说辞，那些密切关注特斯拉的人都知道，他们永远不会真正完成或达到最终设计，他们一直在不断地迭代和改进。所以我们会将这视为好消息，但现在看来，我希望在今年第三季度举行奠基仪式，并且第一批产品将在2025年第一季度开始生产，这是我现在的猜测。
Carvana released its top 10 used electric vehicles sold for the first half of this year, and the Model 3 is the most sold used EV, which really is no surprise because for 2021 and 2022, full years, the Model 3 also took the number one spot in terms of unit sold.
Carvana发布了今年上半年销售最多的10款二手电动车，而Model 3是最畅销的二手电动车，这并不奇怪，因为2021年和2022年，Model 3在销量方面也获得了第一名的位置。
Can somebody just tell me if Jim Kramer's account has gone full on parody because sometimes it's hard to tell? And am I missing some sort of joke here with him spelling lightning? Either way though, just wanted to share the reminder that our guide Jeff Lutz pointed out, Ford's ad spend on CNBC and VC Universal last year was $108 million, or over 5.5% of Ford's total advertising spend in the US in 2021.
有人能告诉我吗，吉姆·克雷默的账号是不是已经变成了全面的模仿，因为有时候很难分辨？而且他拼写“lightning”是有什么笑话在里面吗？不管怎样，我只是想分享一下我们的指南杰夫·卢茨指出的提醒，即福特去年在CNBC和VC Universal的广告支出为1.08亿美元，超过了福特2021年在美国的总广告支出的5.5%。
You may recall that weird deal we talked about last week that Tesla signed basically agreeing to stop the price war? Well, a few days later, and now that apparently has been nixed. Apparently, China also has some antitrust laws as well. The pricing pledge had violated China's antitrust law and said it would delete it from a list of commitments the automakers had signed. So now, those same 16 companies are being forced to strictly comply with the antitrust law and compete fairly with independent pricing.
你可能还记得上周我们谈到的那笔奇怪的交易，特斯拉基本上同意停止价格战的交易。然而，几天后，这个交易显然被取消了。中国也有一些反垄断法规。定价承诺违反了中国的反垄断法，中国表示会从汽车制造商签署的承诺列表中删除它。所以现在，这些16家公司被迫严格遵守反垄断法，并与独立定价进行公平竞争。
The French finance minister just said he's very hopeful Tesla and Elon will pick France for an investment linked to EVs in Europe. When asked whether the deal could be for battery sales or other parts of Tesla's business, he said several options are on the table.
法国财政部长刚刚表示，他对特斯拉和埃隆会选择法国作为与欧洲电动车投资相关的地方感到非常乐观。当被问及这项交易可能是关于电池销售还是特斯拉业务的其他方面时，他表示多种选择都在考虑之中。
That's it. That's the article.
就这么简单。这就是文章。
The new freshly built from the ground up Tesla Center in Victoria, BC is now done. For what it's worth, the word on the street is that yes, the destination chargers at this site are up and running.
在加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省投资新建的特斯拉中心已经完工了。据说，这个地点的目的地充电站已经开始运营了。
Some encouraging data in Ireland in the first half of this year, there were 13,700 EVs sold that compared to last year 8,300, meaning EV sales are up this year 65%, now making up about 20% of all new car sales. A further 12.2,000 hybrids were registered during the first half, along with 5.9,000 plug-in hybrids.
今年上半年，爱尔兰的一些鼓舞人心的数据显示，共售出了13,700辆电动汽车，相比去年的8,300辆，电动汽车销量同比增长了65%，现如今占新车销售总量的约20%。除此之外，上半年还有12.2万辆混合动力车和5.9万辆插电式混合动力车进行了注册。
We got the export number for Tesla China in June. That was 19,468, meaning domestically 74.2,000 were sold in June. And yes, right now the Q1 plus Q2 compared to Q1 and Q2 last year, that comparison looks great. It's up over 60%. Just remember that the factory was shut down for a few weeks last year in Q1. We already touched on the wholesale figures last week, but the short takeaway, everything looks right on schedule.
我们获得了特斯拉中国在6月份的出口数量。总计为19,468辆，说明国内在6月份售出了74,200辆。而且，现在与去年同期相比，第一季度加上第二季度的销量非常出色，增长超过60%。请记住，去年第一季度的几周时间里，工厂曾经关闭。上周我们已经谈到了批发数据，总体来看，一切都按计划进行。
Over the weekend, it was reported that the Malaysian Prime Minister was set to meet with Elon this week to discuss the possibility of Elon increasing his investments in Malaysia. He said Tesla will establish a head office in Malaysia, introduce Tesla's experienced centers, service centers, and establish the Supercharger network. In case you forgot, Tesla's entry into Malaysia is scheduled for July 20th following Singapore and Thailand for Southeast Asia. Looking at the Tesla careers page for Malaysia, you will find 16 different job postings in Kuala Lumpur.
上周末有报道称，马来西亚首相计划在本周与埃隆会面，讨论埃隆增加在马来西亚投资的可能性。他表示特斯拉将在马来西亚设立总部，引入特斯拉的体验中心、服务中心，并建立超级充电网络。如果你忘了的话，特斯拉计划于7月20日进入马来西亚市场，该市场是继新加坡和泰国之后特斯拉进入东南亚的第三个目的地。如果你浏览特斯拉在马来西亚的招聘页面，你会发现吉隆坡有16个不同的职位空缺。
For whatever it's worth, we have a Chinese source quoting a worker from one of Tesla's suppliers in Shanghai, saying Model 3 production workshop is at a high level of confidentiality, and the production line debugging has basically been done. We're now testing the modified Model 3 prototypes, Project Thailand, on the factory road on weekends, and the production line is also doing follow-up improvement work. This would of course track to that expected September production for Project Thailand out of Tesla China. At the very least, I think this is something for all of us to keep in the back of our minds.
就算价值有限，我们有一个中国消息来源引述一位特斯拉供应商上海的工人的话，他说Model 3的生产车间保密程度很高，生产线调试基本已经完成。我们现在正在周末在工厂道路上测试改进后的Model 3原型车，这个项目被称为泰国计划，生产线也在进行后续改进工作。这当然与特斯拉中国计划中预期的9月份开始生产泰国计划有关。至少，我认为这对我们所有人来说是一件应该放在心头的事情。
Data from Cox Automotive is telling us the nationwide supply of EVs in stock on dealer lots has swelled 350% this year to over 92,000 units. That's a 92-day supply, about three months worth of EVs, nearly twice the industry average. For comparison, dealers have about 54 days worth of ice-powered vehicles on their lots, and we know Tesla is sitting all the way down at 16 days of supply. Tesla is not included in this data because they sell direct to consumer. We're all closely watching Tesla's competition sales numbers to see who's going to emerge for that second-place spot, but are those sales going more to the dealer or to the end consumer? Something to remember.
来自Cox Automotive的数据告诉我们，全国经销商库存中的电动车数量今年已经增长了350%，超过了92,000辆。这相当于92天的供应量，大约是三个月的电动车供应。这个数字几乎是行业平均水平的两倍。作为对比，经销商手中约有54天的汽油车库存量，而我们知道特斯拉的库存只有16天。特斯拉不包含在这个数据中，因为他们直接向消费者销售。我们都在密切关注特斯拉竞争对手的销售数字，看看谁能脱颖而出成为第二位，但这些销售更多地流向了经销商还是最终消费者？这是需要记住的一点。
Genesis being hurt by the lack of IRA credits being manufactured in South Korea, and a similar story with cars like the EV6, the IONIQ 5, and the ARIA. And because I know you all were wondering, the Toyota BZ4X has a 101-day supply.
创世纪遭受了南韩缺乏IRA积分的打击，而对于像EV6、IONIQ 5和ARIA等汽车来说，情况也类似。顺便提一句，丰田BZ4X有101天的库存供应。
The EV transition in Thailand is roughly at the same percentage market share as the United States, sitting at around 6% through the first four months of this year for full BEVs in Thailand. However, we know how we talk a lot about watching the Chinese EV manufacturer take over of the European market. Well, now we need to add Thailand to that mix as well. This chart is BEV registrations only in Thailand, and the tan portion of the bar chart is for the first four months of this year. The takeaway, Chinese brands are in the midst of the takeover. Historically, this market has been dominated by the Japanese automakers.
泰国的电动车（EV）转型市场份额大致与美国相当，今年前四个月泰国纯电动汽车（BEV）的市场份额约为6%。然而，我们知道我们常常谈论中国电动车制造商在占领欧洲市场方面的表现。现在，我们还需要将泰国也加入到这一行列中。这张图表只显示了泰国的BEV注册情况，图表中棕色的部分是今年前四个月的数据。总的来说，中国品牌正在接管该市场。历史上，这个市场一直由日本汽车制造商主导。
Speaking of the Chinese takeover, it's not just overseas for them, but how about what's going on at home? Local brands captured 54% of China's wholesale car market through the first half of 2023 from 48% one year ago. And just a fun fact, because I like to zoom out, see the bigger pictures in 2022, sales of ICE vehicles in China were about 8 million lower than at the 2017 peak. We've already reported on companies like Ford, NGM, and some of the Europeans slowly getting squeezed out of the Chinese car market by the domestic, mostly EV brands. And then there's Tesla, the unicorn with no joint partnership in China, which is a one of one.
说起中国接管（市场），对他们来说并不仅仅是海外，那么国内呢？本土品牌通过2023年上半年占据了中国汽车批发市场的54%，而一年前这个比例为48%。再来说一个有趣的事实，因为我喜欢放大视野，看到更大的画面，在2022年，中国的传统内燃机汽车销量比2017年的峰值低了约800万辆。我们已经报道了像福特、努比亚汽车等一些欧洲企业，它们在中国汽车市场逐渐被本土主要是电动汽车品牌挤压出局。然后还有特斯拉，这个没有与中国合作伙伴关系的独角兽，是独一无二的。
RJ Scoringe did a new interview with Bloomberg. We didn't really get much new, but he did say the R2 platform is sized to fit the US, Europe, and China very nicely, so confirming a global platform. And on the R2, the entirety of the program has been set up to make sure it's IRA compliant, so we should expect all of the vehicles on the R2 lineup to get the $7,500.
RJ Scoringe在彭博社接受了一次新的采访。我们并没有得到太多新的信息，但他表示R2平台的尺寸非常适合美国、欧洲和中国，确认了这是一种全球性的平台。至于R2平台，整个项目都已经设置好了，以确保符合IRA标准，所以我们应该期待R2系列车型都能获得7500美元的补贴。
And reconfirming the price points between 40 and $60,000. And because RIVIEN is not breaking out its production by vehicle, RJ told us to expect about 20% of the production to be for commercial purposes, the EDV, and 80% plus for passenger cars. With of course that latter percentage growing more quickly once they get to the R2 platform.
并再次确认价格在40至60,000美元之间。由于RIVIEN不会根据车型详细分解其生产，RJ告诉我们预计约20%的生产用于商业目的，即EDV，而80%以上用于乘用车。当然，一旦他们达到R2平台，后者百分比会更快增长。
And probably most importantly, RJ seemed very optimistic and upbeat when it came to the status of the supply chain. They have a lot more certainty of getting parts at certain times, which gives them more confidence in production guidelines. And this could be a good barometer of what's going on for the EDV industry supply chain at scale.
而且可能最重要的是，在供应链的状态问题上，RJ似乎非常乐观和积极。他们对于在特定时期获得零部件有了更多的确定性，这给他们在生产指导方针方面增加了更多的信心。而这可能是电动汽车产业供应链规模问题的一个良好指标。
The Chevy Blazer SS or Super Sport variant has been delayed until quarter one 2024 when it was supposed to be later this year. So the question now becomes, does that mean the lower variants will also be delayed that are set for deliveries in a few months. It will be in the upcoming Barbie movie however, so if you need your fill, you can check that out on the 21st. No reason was given for the delay. This of course, a very important vehicle for Chevy and GM should start around $50,000, not for the SS trim, just the entry.
雪佛兰Blazer SS或Super Sport的车型推迟到2024年第一季度，原计划是在今年晚些时候推出。所以现在问题是，这是否意味着预定在几个月内交付的较低级别车型也会延迟。然而，它将会在即将上映的芭比电影中出现，所以如果你想要了解更多信息，可以在21日去看。延迟的原因没有给出。这当然是雪佛兰和通用汽车非常重要的车型，起价应该在5万美元左右，这还不包括SS的改款，只是基础款的价格。
Remember that season of Tesla retail vehicle flippers? Well, now Rolls Royce is getting that treatment with their new EV Spectre. Anyone caught reselling this vehicle for profit will be banned for life.
还记得特斯拉零售汽车翻车的那个季节吗？现在劳斯莱斯的新型纯电动车Spectre也将面临同样的待遇。任何被发现以牟利为目的进行该车二次销售的人将被终身禁止。
This week, the big UAW negotiations get underway. The UAW is criticizing the relatively low pay workers are earning at one new battery factory, Hintint, its GM's Altium Factory, one of, and they're blasting the closure of older gasoline vehicle factories. If things don't go well, we could see strikes as soon as September. And somewhat of an eyebrow razor, the UAW has withheld their endorsement for Biden's re-election campaign, saying first they expect help to ensure that workers win strong pay and job security in the EV era. Encouragingly, the UAW says it isn't opposed to EVs, it just wants the jobs to pay well. And that GM Altium Factory does not yet have a UAW negotiated contract. They're saying those Altium workers are only getting 1650 an hour or half of what GM workers used to get at a gasoline plant in that area. Gasoline plant meaning ice factory. Additionally, the UAW is upset with all of these billion dollar loans for EV manufacturing, while there's been no consideration for wages, working conditions, union rights, or retirement security.
本周，UAW（美国汽车工人联合会）的重要谈判即将开始。UAW批评在新建的Hintint电池工厂（也是GM的Altium工厂之一）工人的工资相对较低，并谴责了老旧汽油车工厂的关闭。如果情况不顺利，我们可能会在九月看到罢工。而且令人吃惊的是，UAW已经暂停了对拜登连任竞选的支持，称他们首先期待帮助确保工人在电动汽车时代获得高薪和工作保障。令人鼓舞的是，UAW表示他们并不反对电动汽车，只是希望工作得到很好的报酬。GM的Altium工厂目前还没有UAW协商的合约。他们表示，Altium工厂的工人每小时只拿到1650美元，相当于当地汽油工厂GM工人以前获得薪水的一半。此外，UAW对于电动汽车制造的亿美元贷款感到不满，因为这些贷款没有考虑工资、工作条件、工会权益或退休保障。
To wrap up that combo from earlier, a Renault exec is saying there's a Chinese storm looming over Europe's EV sector. This during a critical juncture for the EU when they're realizing how over-reliant they are on China for the supply chain. The chairman of Renault said when I talk about a Chinese storm, I'm talking about the strong pressure today related to the Chinese EV imports into Europe. We're capable of making EVs, but we're fighting to ensure the safety of our supplies. If you've been around the channel for a few months, you will have heard me say this is one of the bigger storylines in the auto industry. And the chair said, as any careful manufacturer would do, we're looking for alternatives to avoid paralyzing the country. If for example, we run out of batteries, that gets into the whole e-fuel synthetic fuel conversation. But this Chinese auto takeover could change the game and eventually those ripple effects could hit the United States.
总结一下之前提到的组合，雷诺的高管表示，中国的电动汽车（EV）行业正在对欧洲形成一股威胁。这正值欧盟认识到自己对中国供应链过于依赖的关键时刻。雷诺的董事长说，当我说到中国风暴时，我指的是与中国电动汽车进口到欧洲相关的强大压力。我们有能力生产电动汽车，但我们正努力确保供应的安全。如果你在本频道待了几个月，你可能听我说过这是汽车行业中较为重要的故事情节之一。董事长说，像任何谨慎的制造商一样，我们正在寻找替代方案，以避免让国家瘫痪。例如，如果我们用光了电池，将涉及到整个电动燃料合成燃料的讨论。而这次中国汽车接管可能会改变局面，最终会对美国产生连锁反应。
You can find me on Twitter at Dylan Loomis22. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
你可以在Twitter上找到我，我的账号是Dylan Loomis22。希望你们都度过愉快的一天。如果你们喜欢这个视频，请给它点赞，同时要特别感谢我的Patreon支持者们。