Tesla Crushes Expectations with Record Delivery Report!

Hey everybody Rob Marr here and today we are going to be talking about Tesla's Q2 delivery and production report. I know normally we'd go through these live so we'll talk a little bit about scheduling stuff a little bit later on but I do want to just jump right into the numbers here.

大家好，我是Rob Marr。今天我们要讨论特斯拉第二季度的交付和生产报告。我知道通常我们会实时浏览这些报告，稍后我们会谈一些关于日程安排的事情，但我现在想直接谈谈这些数字。

Tesla delivering a record 466,000 vehicles this quarter well above most estimates well above analyst consensus so a really strong number there on deliveries and production equally strong almost 480,000 vehicles produced this quarter. So we'll talk a little bit about again versus consensus and quarter over quarter year over year numbers like that but first just want to take a quick look at the S and the X versus the three and the Y split.

特斯拉本季度交付了创纪录的46.6万辆车，远远超出了大多数预测和分析师的共识，这个交付量非常强劲。产量同样强劲，本季度生产了接近48万辆车。所以我们将简要讨论与共识和季度对比、年度对比等方面的情况，但首先我们先快速看一下S和X与3和Y之间的分割情况。

So S production S and X production was about 19,500 deliveries about 19,200. That's really exciting to me because this is significant quarter over quarter growth. I think last quarter was about 11,000 in the deliveries bucket. So to see Tesla pick that up so dramatically quarter over quarter is really exciting and shows strength in that line which we hadn't really seen so far or hadn't really seen developed quite yet and with the cancellation of the right hand drive I'd kind of been wondering if maybe Tesla was going to be reducing production here but that doesn't seem to be the case at least so far here in the second quarter.

S公司的生产量是19,500辆，而X公司的生产量约为19,200辆。对我来说，这真是令人激动，因为这意味着季度间的增长是显著的。我想上一季度交付的数量大约为11,000辆。所以看到特斯拉如此大幅度地季度间增长是非常令人激动的，并显示了该产品线上的实力，这是我们迄今为止还没有看到的，也还没有完全发展起来。而且由于取消右驾驶车型，我曾经有些担心特斯拉会减少这里的生产，但至少到目前为止在第二季度似乎并非如此。

So right off the bat really happy with that S and the X number and then three in the Y of course you're seeing 445, 447,000 deliveries here 460,000 produced just continuing to be extremely strong and of course there's a couple of items there that we need to talk about like some delivery downtime things with Model 3 Highland potentially affecting these numbers as well which we'll talk about. So I do want to look at some of the comparisons like I noted. First analyst consensus 447,000 essentially this is a 4% beat versus that consensus it seemed like most estimates were kind of in that ballpark so this is probably the biggest beat that Tesla has had versus consensus for quite some time which is really exciting.

一开始就非常高兴看到S和X车型的交付量以及Y车型的数字，当然您也看到了这里有445, 447,000辆交付，460,000辆生产，继续保持极强劲的势头。当然，我们还需要谈谈一些问题，比如Model 3 Highland的交付停机时间可能会对这些数字产生影响，我们稍后会谈论。所以我确实想要看一些比较，就像我之前提到的。首先，分析师一致预期为447,000辆，这基本上比预期高出4％，看起来大多数估计都略高于这个数，所以这可能是特斯拉相对于共识的最大超预期，真是令人兴奋。

We'll see you know what the stock does in reaction to this news it's always a little bit tough to guess but looks like a pretty strong number right off the bat and again I think I mentioned this but records for both deliveries and production. So for production this was up 9% quarter over quarter deliveries similarly up 10% quarter over quarter the year over year numbers here looks super super strong up 86% for production 83% for deliveries we do have to keep in mind which you know hopefully people add this context when we're talking about these numbers. There was some downtime last year in Q2 for covid related things so not necessarily the fairest comparison when we're looking at these year over year numbers but still it does show you know the progress that Tesla has made from where we were at in Q2 last year as we head into the earnings report obviously that's going to have impacted the earnings report last year as well so we should be seeing a nice boost here in Q2 in the year over year numbers.

我们会看一下股票对这个消息的反应，很难猜测，但初步看来是一个相当强劲的数字，正如我之前提到的，创下了交付和生产两个方面的纪录。因此，生产环比增长了9%，交付环比增长了10%。从年度数据来看，生产增长了86%，交付增长了83%，当考虑到去年Q2因为COVID-19相关原因而有一段停工时间时，我们需要记住这一点，希望人们在谈论这些数字时能够加入这个背景。但仍然可以看出特斯拉相比去年Q2取得了进展，随着我们进入财报发布季节，显然去年的财报也受到了影响，因此我们应该在年度数据中看到一个不错的增长。

Alright and then looking at the year to date so far so I think we had around you know 420,000 or so delivered in the first quarter and a little bit higher than that on production. So year to date Tesla has now produced 920,000 vehicles compared to their goal of deliveries of about 1.8 million their production is right on track this annualizes now over the first half of the year to 1.84 million obviously and then on the delivery side looking at 889,000 vehicles delivered in these first two quarters so just below that 1.78 million annualized right now versus that sort of official target of 1.8 million but Elon did have to say that internally they're targeting more like 2 million so I think that raised the bar a little bit but tracking really nicely towards that official guidance.

好的，然后来看一下到目前为止的年度情况，我认为在第一季度我们交付了大约42万辆左右的车辆，而生产量稍微高一些。所以到目前为止，特斯拉已经生产了92万辆车辆，目标交付量约为180万辆，生产量完全按计划进行中。如果按年化计算，这表明上半年的生产量将达到184万辆。在交付方面，这前两个季度交付了88.9万辆车辆，目前的年化交付量稍低于178万辆，但埃隆表示在内部他们的目标更接近200万辆，所以这提高了一些门槛，但目前的进展非常符合官方的指引。

So to hit 1.8 million for the year in terms of deliveries they need to average 455,000 over the next two quarters to hit 2,555,000 which would be you know pretty significant increase from the 465,000 or so that we see here in Q2 but this 1.8 million definitely looks on track they'll probably end up somewhere in this range which I think would be a great result for this year.

为了在交付方面达到180万辆的年目标，他们需要在接下来的两个季度平均每个季度交付45.5万辆，以达到255.5万辆。这将是一个相当显著的增长，考虑到第二季度约46.5万辆的交付量。但是，180万辆的目标似乎正在顺利进行，他们可能最终会达到这个范围，我认为这将是今年一个很好的结果。

Now obviously that is pending things with Project Highland a little bit and how that might influence these numbers could affect things but even this quarter probably had an effect and still tracking towards that and then inventory we'll talk a bit about here in a second but you know people always bring up inventory and obviously in this quarter we're seeing significantly more vehicles produced than delivered but just looking at the 920,000 produced year to date 889,000 delivered 96.5% of the vehicles Tesla's produced this year have effectively been delivered even if that's some carryover from last year that ends up in these actual numbers it's kind of the way to look at it so I think that helps give some context on you know all almost all the vehicles that Tesla's producing end up being delivered at some point there's obviously going to be a little bit of a difference there between 100% as Tesla scales they need time to deliver those vehicles so it's probably not going to be 100% unless they're drawing down from past inventory which over a long period of time is not what's going to happen you know that would only happen if you're not not really growing quickly so we'll talk a little bit more on inventory but just wanted to throw that statistic out there as well.

现在显然，这还要考虑到Highland项目可能对这些数字产生的一些影响，但即便如此，即使是本季度，这可能仍然对结果产生了影响，而且仍在追踪这个目标。至于库存，我们稍后会详细讨论，但你知道，人们总是提到库存，显然在本季度我们生产的车辆要远远超过交付的数量，但仅仅看一下截至目前生产的92万辆车，实际交付的已经达到了88.9万辆，这意味着特斯拉今年生产的96.5%的车辆已经有效地交付出去了，即使其中一部分是去年的积压订单导致今年的实际交付，总之，就这么看是一个不错的结果。这可以帮助理解特斯拉所生产的几乎所有车辆最终都会被交付，当然在100%的交付率上可能会有些差距，因为特斯拉在扩大规模的同时需要时间交付这些车辆，所以交付率可能不会达到100%，除非他们从过去的库存中调取，但长期看这种情况不会发生，因为这只会发生在公司的增长速度没有得到提升的情况下。我们稍后会更详细地讨论库存问题，但只是想在这里提一下这个数据。

Alright, so focusing in a little bit more on the production side I've just taken a quick screenshot here of the sheet that we would normally go through because I think this is probably the most important part of it so what's very interesting here these you know these numbers are just estimates for this breakout between factories but I want to highlight this June number for Shanghai because we don't have this yet obviously we get sort of firm numbers with the CPC reports every month but we don't have that effort June and June is particularly interesting because there have been rumors of of course the Model 3 production line shutdown for Project Highland so there's a possibility that we really didn't have any or any significant production from the Model 3 in June and that's kind of what this scenario would be showing if that's the case then you know Model Y generally is a little bit lower than 60,000 or so so if you just plug that in for June that gives us about 222,000 from Shanghai which this number is important because it kind of dictates how the rest of the numbers fall through in terms of how we would estimate them so if you look at Fremonts you know it's usually somewhere in this 140 to 145,000 range and then the balance would of course have to come from Berlin and Texas and that's really what we're getting to when we're talking about this June number for Shanghai because if this is higher if there was really volume Model 3 production in Shanghai and June which we don't really think that there was then that means a lot fewer vehicles coming from Berlin and Texas if the number does come in a little bit more in this 55,000 range that means there's going to be a lot higher production from these two factories which would be great in terms of how their ramps look from here so we know Tesla has given us some updates on hitting you know 5,000 per week milestones at various points in time but we haven't had quite as many of those this quarter so it's been a little bit more of a question on how these are ramping if this Shanghai number is lower reflects a lot more positively so kind of a weird situation but when we do get these numbers in about a week that will tell us a lot more about Berlin and Texas and we kind of want these to be low because we know the reason for that being low and if it is low good for Berlin and Texas so we'll come back to that but just wanted to kind of highlight that as the main thing to watch regarding these production numbers in terms of the information that we will still get from this point

好的，那么更加专注于生产方面，我在这里简单地截取了一张表格的截图，因为我认为这可能是最重要的部分。这些数字只是我们通常会去了解的工厂之间的初步估计，但我想要重点关注上海的6月份数字。毕竟，对于6月份的数字，我们现在还没有确切的数据。每个月我们会通过CPC报告得到实际数字，但是6月份的数据非常有趣，因为有传言称，在项目高原的模型3生产线可能停产了。所以，如果真是这样的话，6月份的模型3的产量可能要非常低，这个情景就是在展示如果真是这样的话，模型Y的产量一般都会低于6万辆，所以如果我们把这个数字纳入6月份的产量，那么上海工厂的产量大约为22.2万辆，这个数字很重要，因为它会决定其他数字的变化方式，即我们如何估计其他工厂的产量。如果我们看看弗里蒙特工厂，它的产量通常在14万到14.5万辆左右，在柏林和德克萨斯工厂，则只能补充剩下的产量。所以，当我们讨论上海工厂的6月份产量时，我们实际上在讨论柏林和德克萨斯工厂的情况，因为如果这个数字更高，如果6月份的上海工厂真的有大量的模型3产量，尽管我们并不这么认为，那么从柏林和德克萨斯工厂所生产的车辆就会大大减少。而如果数字接近5.5万辆，那么柏林和德克萨斯工厂的产量将会更高，这对于它们的产能展望来说是非常好的。我们知道，特斯拉在过去一段时间里发布了一些达到每周5000辆的里程碑更新，但是这个季度获得这样的更新并不多，所以对于产能的增长我们还有一些疑问。如果上海的数字更低，那将会更积极地反映出柏林和德克萨斯工厂的生产水平，所以这是一个有些奇怪的情况，但当我们在大约一周后得到这些数字时，我们将会对柏林和德克萨斯工厂有更多的了解，我们希望这些数字能够低一些，因为我们知道这种情况产生的原因，并且如果产能低一些，对柏林和德克萨斯工厂来说将是一件好事。我们会继续关注这个问题，但只是想要强调一下，这是关于这些产量数字的主要关注点，关于我们从现在开始会得到的信息。

And then on the inventory position uh oh one second here guys getting a call on the inventory position the change in inventory as we talked about it did increase again this quarter we can see that that has increased for the last five quarters in a row now so significant increases over that period of time Tesla would now be sitting on about 100,000 vehicles of inventory which I think is why we go back to this because that sounds like a lot but you know if you're delivering 96 and a half percent of what's being produced that should still put you in a pretty good position if we look at... that 100,000 vehicles of inventory and we put it in kind of days of inventory from the Q1 report we can see how that's trended over time so last year at this point there was just four days of... inventory but now we've had this significant increase so up to 15 days of inventory at the end of last quarter with this new addition of you know 13,500 vehicles to inventory this calculation it only increases to 16 days so although it looks like it's a lot in terms of Tesla's actual delivery rate it's really not too much of it that's why I was saying before when we're talking about this percentage as Tesla scales it's very normal for inventory to increase in you know association with that increased scale uh Tesla's gonna have more stores they're gonna have more vehicles that are coming off of the production line uh sort of at the end of the quarter that just can't be delivered so although they could probably get away with a little bit you know lower inventory than where they're at right now 16 days significantly significantly below the automotive industry average nothing out of line there uh and it's not even out of line with Tesla's history really it's maybe a little bit higher but but not anything crazy in terms of if you put it in relation to the scale of the delivery number which is what that days of inventory metric does so I'm... pretty happy with that you know it's it's always kind of nice to see Tesla deliver more than they produce because it really helps earnings and cash flow and all those things look really nice but at the end of the day as long as this is staying in a reasonable range you know I think it's it's good um you know it's it's a fine and healthy number at this point so just wanted to give some context there on on the uh the inventory position because I know that we'll probably get a lot of attention on sort of the bearish side... uh as that has built pretty significantly over the last year but again coming off of a very low base alright and then I do just want to quickly talk about scheduling here so I guess last thought on on you know the delivery numbers really strong I'm very happy with them you know normally we would do a preview so I could kind of give my thoughts heading into this so we've got some of that context and hopefully this walkthrough of you know the Shanghai number helps provide some of that but really happy with the numbers here excited to see the progress that Tesla's making hopefully now as we head into Q3 maybe this will be the you know the quarter where we get this added a little bit where we can get a little bit more information sorry for the background noise and then one other item here the earnings report Tesla is scheduling that for July 19th so Wednesday July 19th after market close which is generally the... it's all good generally the period where we would expect that delivery number or the earnings report to be and then just last couple things on scheduling so this week we will have the 4th of July holiday obviously on Tuesday so the markets are closed that day and then on Monday we will have an early market close as well so just something to keep an eye out for this week with the holiday and then one other thing obviously this week scheduling has been very difficult earlier this week so I do as you guys should know over the last 1300 episodes very much value consistency so my apologies for that just some other things that have taken priority at the moment but as soon as we can get back to a normal cadence we'll do that this week was actually supposed to be this week was supposed to be this upcoming week was supposed to be a vacation week for me so still gonna try to do some of that I'll try to be on you know standby... for any major news but again appreciate the patience on that and hopefully we'll be back to a normal sort of a schedule pretty soon all right that'll wrap it up for today so as always thanks for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on twitter at tessellpodcast and we'll see you at some point sometime soon thank you

然后关于库存位置，抱歉大家等一下，我接到了关于库存位置的电话。正如我们之前讨论过的，库存的变化这个季度再次增加了。我们可以看到过去五个季度都出现了增长的趋势，所以在这段时间内增长很显著。特斯拉现在大约有10万辆车的库存，这听起来确实很多，但是如果你能交付生产的96.5%的车辆，那应该还是处于相当不错的位置。如果我们看一下库存中的100,000辆车，并将其转换为库存天数，从一季度的报告中我们可以看到这个趋势。去年这个时候只有四天的库存，但现在我们有了显著增加，上个季度末库存增加到了15天，加上13500辆车后这个计算结果只增加到了16天。所以虽然看起来很多，但从特斯拉的实际交付速度来看，实际上没有太多库存。所以我之前说过，随着特斯拉的扩大规模，库存增加是非常正常的现象。特斯拉会有更多的门店，并且会有更多的车辆从生产线上下线，但在季末无法交付。虽然现在的库存可能还可以再降低一点，但是16天的库存显然远低于汽车行业的平均水平，也与特斯拉的历史相符，或许略高一点，但并不是什么疯狂的数字，尤其是如果将其与交付数量相比较，这就是库存天数度量的作用。我对此感到非常满意，能看到特斯拉的交付量超过生产量，这对收益和现金流非常有帮助，所有这些指标看起来非常不错。但是综合考虑，在这个合理范围内，这个数字是可接受且健康的。因此，我想对库存位置进行一些解释，因为我知道可能会有很多人持悲观态度，认为库存在过去一年里有了显著的增长。但实际上是从一个非常低的基数上增长的。好，接下来我想简单谈谈安排的问题。我想最后再说一下关于交付数量，实际上这个数字非常强劲，我对此非常满意。通常我们会进行预测，这样我就可以提前给出自己的看法。所以我提供一些建议，希望提供一些背景，希望通过介绍一下上海的交付数量来提供一些帮助。非常满意这里的数字，期待着看到特斯拉正在取得的进展，希望在第三季度，也许这将是一个可以增加一点的季度，我们可以获得更多信息。对于背景噪音我要道歉，再提一个事项，特斯拉的财报将安排在7月19日，即周三，财报将在市场收盘后公布，这通常是公布交付数量或财报的时间段。最后，关于安排还有几点，本周将会有7月4日的假期，当然当天市场休市，周一市场也将提前收盘，对此要留意。还有一件事情，本周的安排非常困难，我在过去的1300期节目中非常重视持续性，所以对此表示歉意。目前有其他事情占据了优先地位，但一旦我们能够恢复正常步调，我们会尽快做到这一点。本周本应是我的假期周，所以仍然尽量安排一些事情，我会尽量保持待命状态，以获取任何重大消息，但是对此需要耐心，希望我们很快能回到正常的节奏。好了，今天就到这里，感谢大家的收听，记得订阅并接收通知，你也可以在Twitter上找到我，我的账号是tessellpodcast，到时候再见，谢谢。