Cybertruck Leaks: Production Running / Tasha Keeney and Ron Baron on Tesla ⚡️
发布时间 2023-06-23 21:11:39 来源
摘要
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Highland thread: https://twitter.com/teslascope/status/1671956434878345218?s=20
Cybertruck patent: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2023114084&_cid=P12-LJ7TUE-75101-1
Tesla Actuator Team: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xChD-gv_pc&t=41s&ab_channel=Tesla
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00:00 - Elon and Zuck Update
1:05 - Steer by Wire & Hatchback
1:49 - Cybertruck Leaks and Patent
5:45 - Tesla Semi Patent
6:39 - Giga Berlin Train Station Update
7:12 - Ron Baron on TSLA Stock
7:54 - Tasha Keeney on Tesla's FSD Lead
9:58 - Physical Tesla Recall
10:20 - Tesla Van Rumor
10:43 - Lexus RZ 450 EV
11:38 - VW ID1
12:33 - Rivian Integrating ABRP
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#TeslaCybertruck #TashaKeeney #CybertruckProduction
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中英文字稿 
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Lumis. Quick shout out to my newest patron, Ted B. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到“电气化世界”。我是您的主持Dylan Lumis。在此向我最新的赞助者Ted B.表示快速的致谢，感谢您选择支持我们的渠道。
This will undoubtedly be bad news for some of you, so let's get it out of the way. I was talking to both Elon and Mark last night. Both guys are absolutely dead serious about this. They both want to do it. Mark Zuckerberg hit me up for us and said, is he serious? And I said, I don't know. Let me ask him. I asked him and he said, yeah, I'm dead serious.
这肯定是一些人的坏消息，所以让我们先把它处理掉吧。昨晚我和埃隆和马克都聊了聊。这两个家伙都是非常认真的。他们都想去做这件事情。马克·扎克伯格找我并问我，他是否认真。我说，我不知道。让我问问他。我问他，他说，是的，我非常认真。
This would be the biggest fight ever in the history of the world. Bigger than anything that's ever been done. It would break all pay per view records. These guys would raise, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars for charity. And, you know, if you don't have to be a fight fan to be interested in this fight, you everybody would want to see it.
这将是世界历史上最大的一场比赛。比任何以往的比赛都要更大。这将打破所有的点播记录。这些家伙将筹集数亿美元用于慈善事业。即使你不是搏击迷，你也会对这场比赛感兴趣，因为它是每个人都想看的。
As I said yesterday, if there's a silver lining to be had, it's that hopefully there is a big charity component to this whole event. So nothing is guaranteed, but figured I'd pass this along.
就像我昨天所说，如果有什么好处的话，那就是整个事件中有一个慈善组织的大部分。所以并不是什么都有保证，但我想转达出来。
And to those of you vehemently opposed to this entire situation, at least Mama May is on your side.
对于那些对整个情况强烈反对的人，至少Mama May站在你们这一边。
Rob did cover this thread on the Project Highland rumors last night, so I won't go over it again, but if you miss that, either watch his video or I will have this Twitter thread below. I do have to say though, if these rumors are true, it's even better than I was expecting.
Rob昨晚已经涉及了有关“高地项目”传言的此帖子，所以我不会再重复了，但如果你错过了，可以观看他的视频，或者我会在下面提供Twitter线索。不过我必须说，如果这些传言是真的，那就比我预想的还要好。
And if I'm getting greedy in a pipe dream world, the one feature I would love to see on the Model 3 is a hatchback. But presumably that's a decent amount of new engineering, not mentioned in the thread. So unlikely to see that.
如果在一个虚幻的世界里我变得贪心了，我最想在Model 3上看到的是一个掀背式车门。但据推测那需要相当多的新工程，这个帖子中并没有提到。所以不太可能会看到那个。
意思是：如果在虚幻的梦境中，我变得贪婪了，我最想在Model 3上看到的是一个掀背式车门，但是这需要相当多的新工程，这个帖子中并没有提到，所以很不可能看到那个。
Additionally, when it comes to the steer by wire mentioned, I had come into this thread thinking Cybertruck was maybe 5050 to have that feature. After this thread and the sources they mentioned, I would now be more at about 75%, likely to see steer by wire on a Cybertruck, which of course would be awesome.
当涉及到所提到的电动转向时，我一开始以为Cybertruck可能会有50/50的可能。但是在阅读了本主题和它所提到的资料后，现在我更加倾向于Cybertruck会有75%的机会采用电动转向技术，这当然会非常棒。
Yesterday alone, we saw multiple instances of different Cybertruck sightings. And so now we might have between 10 and 20 Cybertrucks globally in testing, because remember, at least one is over in New Zealand. Here's one more quick video sighting from yesterday, but today we actually get some Cybertruck leaks inside the giga Austin factory showing us the real Cybertruck production line may be in action, because some of these prototype alpha builds that we've seen were built in Fremont.
仅昨天就有多次不同的Cybertruck发现。现在全球测试可能已经有10到20辆Cybertruck，因为请记住，至少有一辆在新西兰。这是昨天的又一个快速视频发现，但今天我们实际上看到了一些giga Austin工厂内的Cybertruck泄露，展示了真实的Cybertruck生产线可能已经开始运作，因为我们看到的一些原型α型号是在弗里蒙特建造的。
First up from Joe Tettmeyer, we see that two 9,000 ton gigapresses are installed at Gigatexis. Zooming in on one of Joe's photos, you can see some Cybertruck casting sitting on the floor. So here's that same shot zoomed out, you can pause if you'd like.
乔·特特迈尔的报道显示，Gigatexis安装了两台重达9,000吨的巨型压铸机。从照片中可以看到一些Cybertruck铸件摆放在地板上。下面是同一张照片的缩小版，您可以按暂停键查看。
At the time of recording, Joe has not yet uploaded the YouTube video where these shots actually came from, so be on the lookout for that if you want to see more. I just wanted to highlight it wasn't that long ago that Tesla had a sheet or curtains up that were blocking this window presumably to block our view. Those have conveniently been taking down almost like Tesla wants us to see what's going on.
在拍摄时，乔还没有上载这些镜头实际来源的YouTube视频，所以如果您想看更多，请注意观看。我只想强调不久之前，特斯拉在这个窗户上挂了一些板条或窗帘，据推测是为了挡住我们的视线。这些东西现在方便地被拆下来了，就好像特斯拉希望我们看到正在发生的事情一样。
Then on Facebook from Alejandro Garcia, we have this video, which I think is the Cybertruck body on the actual Cybertruck production line at Gigatexis. Alongside that video, we got these two pictures, this cyber bin over on the left, and then this image that some people are saying is a Cybertruck door, I'm not sure I'd be ready to go that far, but whatever it actually is, definitely looks destined to be in the Cybertruck. And this image was spotted outside of Gigatexis, and we think that these are Cybertruck castings. In these racks, that's a pretty good indication that these will actually be used.
在 Facebook 上，Alejandro Garcia 发布了这段视频，我认为这是真正的Cybertruck产线上的Cybertruck车身。除了这个视频，我们还得到了这两张图片，左边是这个电脑垃圾桶，右边是一张被一些人认为是Cybertruck车门的图片，我不确定能否确认是车门，但无论它是什么，它肯定是注定要出现在Cybertruck里的。这张图片是在Gigatexis外被发现的，我们认为这些是Cybertruck铸件。在这些架子上，这是一个相当好的迹象，这些铸件实际上将被使用。
These are not just scrap parts. At the same time, Tesla has been making some small tweaks to the Cybertruck reservation page, so if you have one, check yours. If when you reserved yours, you had a configuration, it will show that, and you can get some more details about support, trade and estimates, and different agreement documents. You can't configure or really do anything here yet, but clearly Tesla is getting ready for that step.
这些不仅仅是废弃配件。同时，特斯拉一直在对Cybertruck预定页面进行一些微小的调整，所以如果您是其中一位，可以去查看自己的页面。如果在您预定时进行了配置，那么页面会展示配置信息，并且您可以获取更多有关支持、交易和估价以及不同协议文件的详细信息。您目前还不能进行配置或实际操作，但特斯拉显然正在为下一步做好准备。
Simply put, it looks like some actual Cybertruck production line testing has begun. Now, no, I don't think these vehicles will be going to customers in the future I just think it's testing, exciting to see either way.
简单地说，看起来一些真正的Cybertruck生产线测试已经开始了。现在，我不认为这些车辆将来会交付给客户，我只是认为这是测试，无论如何都很令人兴奋。
We also get a filed patent from Tesla for a power tailgate mechanism. It's a system for moving a hinge between an open position and a closed position. The hinge couples a closure panel to a body. The system can include an actuator for driving the closure panel between the open position and the closed position. A counterweight member reduces a mechanical effort provided by the actuator to drive the closure panel. I paused on actuator because let's not forget about Tesla's actuators team, where they're essentially making custom in-house actuators for optimists that they could of course use elsewhere as well.
我们还从特斯拉获得了一项电动尾门机构的专利。这是一种在开启和关闭位置之间移动铰链的系统。铰链将封闭面板与车身连接。该系统可以包括一个用于驱动封闭面板开关的执行器。一个平衡重件可以减少执行器提供的驱动封闭面板的机械力量。我强调了执行器，因为让我们不要忘记特斯拉的执行器团队，在那里，他们基本上是为自己定制的内部执行器，以优化其在其他地方也可以使用。
The pictures aren't great here, but the patent will be below. What you really need to know, this design will also include a controller and sensors again to move the tailgate. In the patent, Tesla talks about reducing the number of components, which streamlines the supply chain, makes installation a lot easier, and of course lowers costs. But most importantly, they talked about reliability and lighter weight, which could of course increase range a bit.
这里的图片并不太清楚，但专利文件会在下面。你需要了解的是，这个设计还包括了控制器和传感器来移动车尾门。在专利文件中，特斯拉谈到了减少零部件的数量，优化供应链，使安装更加方便，并当然降低成本。但最重要的是，他们谈到了可靠性和更轻的重量，这当然可以稍微提高续航里程。
One of the best parts though, Tesla said you would be able to open and close the tailgate through your key fob and the mobile app. And remember, it's a patent. There are no guarantees we see this in the first Cybertrucks produced, but we have to keep in mind Tesla had shown this ramp when the Cybertruck was unveiled. At least for now, there's no official indication whether that will still be a feature or not. Again, the patent will be below and personally, I've never owned a pickup truck, but I would guess that if you have, a few people would have left your tailgate open a time or two when you drive away. So to have those sensors and to get notifications that you left it open and be able to close it real quick from your phone or a key fob, pretty nice feature.
其中最好的一部分，特斯拉说你将能够通过你的钥匙和移动应用程序打开和关闭尾门。不过需要记住，这是一个专利，没有保证我们会在第一批生产的Cybertruck上看到这一创新，但我们必须记住，特斯拉在Cybertruck发布时就展示了这道坡道。至少目前还没有官方表明这是否仍然是一个功能。总之，专利将在下方，个人认为，我从未拥有过皮卡车，但我想如果你有，有些人会在你开走时把尾门留开。因此，拥有这些传感器，收到留开尾门的通知并能够通过手机或钥匙快速关闭尾门，是一个很不错的功能。
Speaking of patents, Tesla also filed another one titled windshield wiper systems. This one was for the Tesla semi just part of the abstract, a first wiper arm and a second wiper arm both supporting at least one wiper blade, a wiper motor drives rotation of the first wiper arm. An actuator is coupled eccentrically to the second wiper arm so as to convert rotary motion of the actuator to reciprocating motion of the second wiper arm. I won't dive into this one. This is probably less relevant to a majority of you than the Cybertruck one, but of course, patent will be linked below. It should be noted though, the wiper patent for the Tesla semi is also addressing some aerodynamic challenges that other iterations have faced.
说到专利，特斯拉还申请了一项新专利，题目是“雨刷系统”（windshield wiper systems）。这项专利是用于特斯拉半挂车的，摘要中只提到了第一和第二雨刷臂都支持至少一个雨刷片，并使用雨刷电机来驱动第一雨刷臂的旋转。一个致动器偏心地与第二雨刷臂耦合在一起，以将致动器的旋转运动转化为第二雨刷臂的往复运动。我不会深入解释这一项专利。对于大多数人来说，这可能比 Cybertruck 的关注度略低，但当然，下面的专利链接会给出。但值得注意的是，特斯拉半挂车的雨刷专利也解决了其他版本面临的一些空气动力学挑战。
If you're wondering, yes, this shirt I'm wearing is from Sawyer's twin birch. Yes, I'm a big fan. No, he's not paying me to say this. He doesn't even know I'm saying this. So if you want to support Sawyer, I'll have his link to twin birch below.
如果你想知道，是的，我穿的这件衬衫是来自Sawyer的双胞胎白桦。是的，我是个大粉丝。不，他没有付我来说这些话。他甚至都不知道我在说这些话。所以，如果你想支持Sawyer，我会在下面放他的双胞胎白桦链接。
We haven't checked in on giga Berlin in a while. So I wanted to show you a clip from Tobias Lind in his recent video showing the train station that is still under construction, but making good progress. Again, this is expected to transport people and there have been talks of transporting cars via rail as well. The rest of that clip was Ron talking about how he runs his fund in some anecdotal stories, but if you take his $1,500 Tesla stock price target by 2030, multiply that by the rough number of Tesla shares outstanding, that would give us a market cap for Tesla of about $4.7 trillion by 2030.
我们有一段时间没有检查千兆柏林了。所以我想向你展示来自托比亚斯林德最近视频中的一段片段，展示仍在建设中但进展顺利的火车站。同样，这预计将用于运输人们，也有谈论通过铁路运输汽车的计划。那段剪辑的其余部分是罗恩谈论如何运营他的基金，也有一些趣闻轶事。但如果你按照他对特斯拉股票在2030年的目标价格1,500美元乘以特斯拉未来股票数量的粗略估计，那么到2030年特斯拉的市值将达到大约4.7万亿美元。
This coming from a man who has already made billions of dollars from Tesla stock. If you think that's exciting, well, have a listen to this Tesla by our research, thanks to our associate Daniel McGuire. He put out some great stats today. We think that they're in full self-driving their FSD software. Their fleet is travelling over 1 million miles every 14 hours. That compares to just 2 million miles in the cumulative lifetime of cruise, which is GM's autonomous car project.
这话是来自一个已经靠特斯拉股票赚了数十亿美元的人口中。如果你觉得这已经很激动人心了，那好，听我介绍一下我们的研究员丹尼尔·麦奎尔为特斯拉整理的数据吧。我们认为，他们的全自动驾驶软件FSD已经实现，他们的车队每14个小时就能行驶超过100万英里。相比之下，通用汽车的自主驾驶车项目Cruise的综合行驶里程只有200万英里。
So the advantage is really unparalleled and we think this is what unlocks superior AI capability. Our price target for Tesla over the next five years is that we think it has an expected value of roughly $2,000 per share. We're talking about American made cars here, which is critical. It's great brand image. It's great for our country. It's great for tax credits. But what the list does not show is that not all of these cars are made equal and the advantage that Tesla has in software and data is unparalleled compared to peers.
因此，优势真正是无与伦比的，我们认为这是实现卓越人工智能能力的关键所在。我们对特斯拉的价格目标在未来五年内是，我们认为其预期价值大约为每股2000美元。我们谈论的是美国制造的车辆，这是至关重要的。它是一个伟大的品牌形象，这对我们国家来说非常重要。它是通过税收减免的方式优惠的。但是这张名单没有显示的是，并非所有的车都是平等的，特斯拉在软件和数据方面的优势是无与伦比的，与同行相比这是无可比拟的。
And really, all automakers should be pursuing full autonomy. That's the future of the auto industry. We find that if you're looking backwards, it's very tough to predict these exponential growth stories that we see. And I think that Tesla is just the perfect example of that. So $2,000 a share times that same rough number of Tesla shares outstanding would be a market cap of about $6.3 trillion sometime around 2029.
实际上，所有的汽车制造商都应该追求全面自动驾驶，这是汽车行业的未来。我们发现，如果你只顾望后镜，很难预测我们所见到的指数级增长故事。我认为特斯拉就是这样的一个完美例子。因此，如果以每股2000美元的价格乘以特斯拉的发行股份数量，则到2029年左右的市值应该约为6.3万亿美元。
And look, I know at first glance it may seem wild and a lot of things really are going to have to break right and come together. However, if Tesla has robot axes deployed in some geographies, if Optimus is doing real work, if dojo is as successful as Tesla hopes that it's going to be if you pair those AI driven business lines with what Tesla auto and Tesla energy will be doing in another five years. Honestly, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. Of course, the macro has to comply. And again, a lot has to break right. But it should be a very exciting couple of years.
听着，我知道乍一看可能有些疯狂，许多事情确实需要顺利发展。但是，如果特斯拉在某些地区部署了机器人轴，如果Optimus在做实际工作，如果道场像特斯拉希望的那样成功，如果将这些由人工智能驱动的业务线与特斯拉汽车和特斯拉能源在另外五年内所要做的结合起来。老实说，我认为这并非不可能。当然，宏观环境也需要保持合适。再次强调，许多事情必须顺理成章。但是未来几年将非常令人兴奋。
We have a rare physical Tesla recall, but it's only affecting a handful of model three and wise due to a pyrotechnic battery disconnect. Essentially, this is that device that disconnects the high voltage battery in the event of an accident or other event. If you're one of the unlucky few that needs this done, Tesla will just replace the battery disconnect for free.
我们有一个罕见的物理特斯拉召回，但它只影响了一小部分Model 3和Y，由于一个火药电池断开装置。基本上，这是一个装置，在事故或其他事件中断开高电压电池。如果您是需要进行这项操作的那不幸少数人之一，特斯拉将免费更换电池断开装置。
I hesitated to share this one because I've never seen a tweet from this account. I cannot at all comment on the credibility level, but passing it along anyway, there's a secret 12 passenger Tesla van prototype in a hidden room in the boring company's Las Vegas headquarters according to a source. We already know to some extent Tesla has been working on a van, so let's take this one for what you will.
我犹豫着是否分享这个消息，因为我从未见过这个帐户的推特。我无法对其可信度做出任何评论，但还是要传递出来，有消息称在乏味公司拉斯维加斯总部的一个隐藏房间里有一辆神秘的12人座特斯拉面包车原型。我们已经知道特斯拉一直在开发面包车，所以就看你们怎么看待这个消息了。
Lexus is about to come to market with its first EV offering and it's the RZ450 manufacturer estimated range of up to 220 miles. And that's actually on 18 inch wheels. If you bump it up to a 20 inch wheel, the range number goes down to 196. This vehicle is supposed to have a battery pack size usable capacity around 65 kilowatt hours on a 400 volt architecture starting at about $60,000. Corey from Monroe Live did a walk-around first impressions of the vehicle and overall came away with some features he liked of course some others that he didn't kind of meh overall. I'll link that video below if you missed it. I have to say though from a luxury brand for their first electric vehicle to come out with a range of only on average around 200 miles is just not going to get it done in my opinion.
雷克萨斯即将推出首款电动汽车RZ450，预计续航里程可达220英里，这还是在18英寸轮胎的情况下。如果升级为20英寸轮胎，续航里程将下降至196英里。该车的可用电池容量约为65千瓦时，在400伏特的结构下，起价约为60,000美元。Monroe Live的Corey对该车进行了实地参观，并对一些特点印象深刻，但也有一些不太满意。如果您错过了这个视频，我会在下面提供链接。然而，我认为对于豪华品牌来说，首个电动汽车的平均续航里程只有约200英里，这不足以满足市场需求。
It sounds like Volkswagen is full steam ahead on a sub 17,000 year old electric ID one hatch that should arrive in the next five years VW CFO said this I love how he starts the quote for the time being we're quite confident we can achieve that price point. This car will have the first in-house battery cells from our Valencia plant and he's saying their confidence in achieving this price point is because of relief on the raw material side lithium and nickel from that perspective they think they can hit the target and at the same time have a decent margin. I can guarantee you right now they are going to need much more than just raw material prices to come down to hit that price point with a decent vehicle and have decent margins. We don't learn much about this ID one other than it's not going to use the same ME B entry platform that the ID two is using. The name is yet to be finalized but it sounds like this one is still a few years away.
大众汽车正在全速推进一款低于17,000年的电动ID一号掀背车型，预计将在未来五年内亮相。大众首席财务官表示：“目前，我们相当自信地认为我们能够达到这个价格点。”这款车将采用来自瓦伦西亚工厂的首批自主生产的电池单元，他说他们的价格点达成信心来自于有关原材料锂和镍的减轻负担的情况，他们认为能够实现目标并且获得不错的利润。但是，我可以向您保证，为了配合较高的性能和利润，他们需要更多的努力而不仅仅是原材料价格的下降。我们对这款ID一号掀背车型所了解的不多，除了它不会使用ID二号采用的MEB入口平台，名称还未最终确定，但看起来，这款车还需要几年的时间才能推出。
In an update from Rivian, they tell us they have already integrated some features of their recent acquisition of a better route planner and you can use some of those features through the Rivian mobile app in the latest software update. Things like multiple trip stops, setting your preferred arrival range, customization for different charger selections, and more. These user experience customer interface type of features are a huge deal for repeat customer so happy to see Rivian moving forward with this one.
Rivian最新的更新中，他们告诉我们他们已经将最近收购的更好的路线规划器的一些功能集成到了最新的软件更新中，你可以通过Rivian移动应用程序使用其中的一些功能。例如多站点的旅行计划、设置您的首选到达时间范围、为不同的充电器选择进行自定义等等。这些用户体验客户界面类型的功能对于重复购买者来说非常重要，因此很高兴看到Rivian与此前进。
You can find me on Twitter at Dylan Loomis 22. Hope you guys have a wonderful and safe weekend. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
你可以在推特上找到我，我的用户名是Dylan Loomis 22。希望大家周末愉快和安全。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，非常感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。