Tesla Highland Rumors, Jonas Downgrade, Silly Initial Quality

Hey everybody Rob and we're here and today we are talking about some more new rumors on Tesla's project Highland. We've also got updates on EVs in China, new Cybertruck photos, an update from Morgan Stanley and more.

大家好，我是罗布，今天我们要谈论有关特斯拉高地项目的最新传言。此外，我们还会给你带来有关中国电动汽车的更新、新的Cybertruck照片、摩根士丹利的最新消息等等。

Quickly looking at the stock Tesla today kind of following the markets around both starting in the red but finishing up Tesla up 2% to close at $264.61, the Nasdaq up almost 1% on the day.

今天快速地观察特斯拉的股票走势，一开始市场呈红色，但是随后结束时特斯拉上涨了2%，收于264.61美元，纳斯达克当天上涨了近1%。

This was despite a downgrade for Tesla from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley today. Although they did increase their price targets, they dropped from an overweight rating to an equal weight rating due to the run up in Tesla stock recently.

尽管摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯今天给特斯拉下调了评级，但他们仍然将价格目标上调了，尽管特斯拉股票最近大涨，但他们由于这一原因，将其从超重评级降为等重评级。

So kind of similar to what we talked about with Barclays and for similar reasons, they say quote, we see Tesla as an AI beneficiary and an auto company. High expectations on the former has brought the stock to a fair valuation, moving us to equal weight with a revised $250 price target, bull case $450, bear case $90 and quote. From their prior price targets, those are $50, $60 and $20 increases respectively. Quote, while we move to equal weight in our view, Tesla remains a must own company in any EV portfolio. We see continued evidence that Tesla is emerging as an industrial standard bearer for one of the greatest industrial changes we've witnessed in over a century, the electric transport and renewable energy economy. This goes well beyond supercharging deals with the likes of GM and Ford and look for other potential areas of collaboration, battery supply, operating system, FSD, etc. to follow and quote.

巴克莱公司提到的原因类似，他们表示：“我们认为特斯拉是人工智能的受益者和汽车公司。” 对前者的高期望值带来了公平的估值，使我们将其股票评级提升至“等重”，并调整了价格目标为250美元，看涨情况450美元，看跌情况90美元。从他们之前的价格目标来看，这分别增加了50、60和20美元。此外，他们还指出：“虽然我们认为特斯拉的地位是等重的，但在任何电动汽车组合中，特斯拉仍然是必不可少的公司。我们看到持续的证据表明特斯拉正在成为我们在一个世纪以来见证的最大工业变革之一中的一个工业标杆，即电力运输和可再生能源经济。这远远超出了与通用汽车和福特汽车等公司达成超级充电协议的范畴，我们期待在电池供应、操作系统、FSD等其他潜在合作领域的发展。”

So after such a dramatic rise, no surprise to see the analysts taking a more weight and C approach on price targets and ratings at the moment, it is kind of a strange time in the market and not too long from heading back into earnings season again, which seemed to play a role in kicking off a lot of this around the first time, especially with Nvidia's report.

经历了这样一个戏剧性的飙升之后，分析师们对于股价目标和评级采取了更加谨慎的态度，这在目前的市场中有一些奇怪的现象。不久之后就要进入财报季节了，这似乎在第一次（股价飙升）中发挥了一定的作用，特别是与Nvidia的报告有关。

Alright, next up, we've got some rumors on Tesla's project, Highland. This is a Twitter thread from at Tesla's scope. I think we'll probably just go through this kind of line by line because there's a lot in here. Tesla's scope in the past has provided some good insight on things like this. There have been times where maybe things were a little bit overhyped as well. So just kind of keep that in mind. But it does sound like they've got quite a few sources for the information that they're sharing here.

下一步，我们听到一些有关特斯拉项目Highland的谣言。这是来自@TeslaScope的Twitter线程。我想我们可能需要逐行分析，因为里面有很多内容。过去，特斯拉的范围提供了一些好的洞察力。有时可能会有一些过度夸大其词的情况，所以请注意这一点。但是听起来他们有很多消息来源来分享他们在这里分享的信息。

So it's a thread about the Model 3 redesign. They say, Highland represents Tesla's continued innovation and ingenuity of the last 16 years with the most significant refresh of an existing model. So they say it's a complete overall, including a major refresh of the exterior, but also significant updates to the interior, and that the prototypes that we've seen on the road the last few months are only a tease of what is coming.

这是关于Model 3重新设计的一个帖子。他们说，Highland代表着特斯拉过去16年持续的创新和智慧，这是对现有车型最重要的更新。他们表示这是全面的改变，包括对外观的重大更新，以及对内部的重要更新。我们在过去几个月在路上看到的原型只是一个预览。

They say Tesla is incorporating dozens of technological improvements within a Highland, including for the first time ever, steer by wire with a yoke and steering wheels. So that would be a significant, very significant change. We just talked about the patent that showed up for that a few days ago. But I haven't seen a whole lot of people talking about that showing up on the refreshed Model 3. So that'd be one of the most interesting and exciting changes here. And if they are doing that on Highland, would they not also be doing that on the Cybertruck at the same time? It would seem pretty likely.

据说特斯拉正在制定许多技术改进，包括首次采用操纵杆和方向盘的电动转向。这将是一个非常重要、非常重要的变化。我们刚刚谈到了几天前出现的专利。但是我没有看到很多人谈论这些变化出现在更新的Model 3上。所以这将是最有趣和激动人心的变化之一。如果他们在高地上这样做，那么他们同样也会在Cybertruck上这样做吗？这似乎很有可能。

They say other changes include Matrix LEDs on all trims and redesigned RGB ambient lights, which they also say are coming to the Model S and X as part of a quote unquote secret minor refresh tentatively happening within the next two months or earlier, which I think puts a lot of weight on refresh, probably more just an iteration as Tesla normally does with their cars. Anyway, they continue on to say based on our conversations we've now had with at least a dozen employees across various roles within the company, Highland's interior will feel fresher, more modern, and much closer to the look and feel of the recent Model S and X redesign.

他们说其他变化包括所有车款都将加装矩阵LED灯和重新设计的RGB环境灯光。他们还称这些变化将在未来两个月内或更早期的“秘密小改款”中应用于Model S和X车型。我认为，这些变化会给整个车款带来重大影响，但还仅仅是特斯拉通常所做的车型迭代。无论如何，他们接着说，根据我们与公司内各个角色的至少十几名员工所进行的交谈，海兰德的内饰将会更为清新现代，更接近于最近Model S和X的重新设计的外观与内饰感受。

So relatively, I don't think the S and X are really all that different in terms of the design aesthetic. Obviously, they've got the ventilated seats. We've heard some rumors about that for the Model 3 Highland already. Maybe we see a bigger screen, some more emphasis on gaming like we saw with the S and X refresh, but I think we all have a good idea of what Tesla likes the interior to look like, and I would expect it to look like that without any major surprises. They do say that a rear screen has been experimented with, but no word on whether or not that would be included.

相对来说，我认为S和X在设计美学上并没有太大的差异。显然，它们都有通风座椅。我们听说过Model 3 Highland的一些传言。也许我们会看到一个更大的屏幕，一些更强调游戏的东西，就像我们在S和X的更新中所看到的那样，但我认为我们都对特斯拉喜欢的内饰有一个很好的想法，并且我期望它看起来就是那样而没有任何重大的出乎意料的地方。它们确实说过有在后面安装显示屏的实验，但目前没有关于是否会被包括的消息。

They say one of the focuses is on recycled materials. I don't think any surprise on that. And then also focus on streamlining the experience when switching between models, which I don't think makes a ton of sense. It's already pretty easy.

他们说一个重点是使用回收材料，我觉得这不是什么意外。而且还要专注于简化在不同型号之间切换时的体验，我觉得这没有太多意义。已经很容易了。

Obviously, there's differences between the three and the Y and the S and X. So maybe that just means it's more similar to the S and X. Obviously, we expect stocks to go away, which I guess would make things more similar, but I'm not putting a whole lot of weight in that comment.

显然，三款车型以及Y和S和X之间存在差异。因此可能意味着它更类似于S和X。显然，我们预计股票会消失，这可能会使事情更加相似，但我并不十分重视这个评论。

They say that the mirrors will display an R when in reverse. So can't change around that one. And then also no surprise, but hardware four would be incorporated on the redesign. And they do say that that would include with the new front fascia, a bumper camera. So that remains one of the biggest questions on hardware for right now is if there are going to be additional cameras added, like we had seen suggested from some of their leaks, we've yet to see that in production vehicles. But of course, there was one on the production beta Cybertruck.

他们说当反向行驶时，后视镜会显示一个“R”，因此无法更改此功能。此外，没有什么令人惊讶的，但是硬件4将被纳入重新设计中。他们还表示，这将包括新的前保险杠摄像头。因此，眼下硬件方面最大的问题之一是是否会增加其他摄像头，就像我们从一些泄密消息中看到的那样，但是我们尚未在生产车辆中看到。但当然，在生产的Cybertruck beta版上有一个。

They say upgraded speaker system like we've heard elsewhere, but been told to expect minor improvements. They say some power efficiencies from removing some sensors, including utilizing GPS based data. There may be a more robust air filter. And they say that the exterior lights are not expected to receive any significant changes, which is a little bit weird since we have seen those covered up on the test vehicles that we've seen out and about. And then finally on the product, they say some seat changes. So this is not necessarily all encompassing, but that's what they are aware of so far.

据他们说， Model Y的升级扬声器系统和其他车型一样，但预计仅有轻微改进。他们表示通过移除某些传感器并利用基于GPS的数据来达到一些功率效率。这可能会有更强大的空气过滤器。虽然我们看到测试车辆的外部灯光被覆盖，但据他们说，预计外部灯光不会有任何重大变化，这有些奇怪。最后，他们说车型的座椅也会有所变化。尽管这不是全面的更新信息，但这是目前他们所知道的。

And again, I think the steer by wire, if that does come into fruition would be the biggest update there, the rest seems like things we could pretty easily guess for pricing. They say that they have not received any concrete information, but they're confident that Highland would be priced similarly to the current generation, which just seems like their guess. And then on the actual launch, they say sadly, that's a confusing topic.

再说一遍，我认为如果转向电控技术成为现实，那将是最大的更新，其他似乎是我们可以很容易猜测的价格。他们说他们没有收到任何具体信息，但他们有信心高地车价格会与当前一代车型类似，这似乎只是他们的猜测。而对于实际上市时间，他们说很遗憾这是一个令人困惑的话题。

Quote, with multiple delays already occurring, we've received conflicting opinions from the employees we've spoken to some say in one to three months, some say later this year, others have said key one 2024 and quote. So we'll see some of that discrepancy could be explained by which region they're talking about maybe earlier in China, maybe later in the US, but it could still be some months away.

引用一段话，并已经发生了多次延迟，我们从我们接触的员工那里收到了不一致的意见，一些人说是在一到三个月内，一些人说是在今年晚些时候，另一些人说是在2024年的关键时刻。所以我们会看到一些差异可能是由于他们所谈论的地区，可能在中国早些时候，可能在美国晚些时候，但它可能仍然有几个月远。

All right, moving on from project Highland, we've got a couple of new photos of the Cybertruck here and more importantly than just new photos of something we've seen a lot, actually photos of the Cybertrucks in pairs. And that is something we have not seen a whole lot of. So Tesla owners club San Joaquin Valley tweeting a few photos that were sent to them of two Cybertrucks end to end on a trailer, which I think is just really exciting to see because it's reminiscent of what we will be seeing when the Cybertruck is actually being delivered.

好的，我们离开Highland项目，这里有几张大Cybertruck的新照片，更重要的是，这次我们不仅能看到已经看过很多次的新照片，还能看到两个Cybertrucks成对儿出现的照片，这是我们之前没有看到过的。所以特斯拉车主俱乐部圣华金谷发布了几张两个Cybertrucks并排停在拖车上的照片，我觉得这真的很令人兴奋，因为这和实际交付Cybertruck时我们将看到的情景非常相似。

And there will be full trailers of these things going out. We'll see drone videos of lots filled with Cybertrucks, which will be a ton of fun. And the Cybertruck with its aesthetics just hits a little bit differently in a big group than a bunch of Model 3s or Model Ys. So I'm excited for that. This is a little bit of a preview. And then we also have another shot of two Cybertrucks, this one from Bay Area Carbon on Instagram, obviously these two with the camouflage wrap.

未来会发布这些产品的完整预告片。我们将看到无人机拍摄的填满Cybertrucks的地块的视频，这将非常有趣。Cybertruck的设计美学在大群体中的表现与一堆Model 3或Model Y不同，这让我感到兴奋。这是一个小小的预览。另外，我们还有来自Bay Area Carbon在Instagram上的另外两个Cybertruck的照片，这两个都有伪装的覆盖物。

All right, next up, we've got some news on EVs in China. China as has been rumored for quite some time has announced that they will be extending the EV purchase tax exemption and actually extending it at least in part through 2027. So new energy vehicles purchased in 2024 and 2025 will be exempted up to about $4,200 per vehicle. Obviously that would be dependent upon the sales price. And then for 2026 and 2027, that maximum will be capped in half. So the Secretary General of the China passenger car association CPCA saying that quote, the extension by another four years beat market expectations, and quote, which I would agree with. I think the last extension for this was just one additional year. So for them to do now four years on it, that's pretty significant. So this will be a big window for Tesla to take advantage of that incentive alongside other new energy vehicles. It just makes the case to buy an ice vehicle even more difficult to make. And we'll continue to support the market share growth and the cost curve decline of EVs.

好的，接下来我们要谈谈中国的电动汽车(EV)方面的一些消息。作为一个长期传言的消息，中国宣布将延长购买电动汽车的免税政策，并且他们至少会在2027年之前部分延长这个政策。因此，在2024年和2025年购买的新能源汽车将免税高达每辆车4200美元。当然，这取决于销售价格。而在2026年和2027年，这个最高额度将缩减一半。中国汽车工业协会秘书长在一份声明中表示：“再延长四年超过了市场预期”，我也同意这个看法。我认为上一次的延期只是一年。因此，他们现在延长四年，这非常重要。这将是特斯拉以及其他新能源汽车的一个大机会，使购买传统内燃发动机汽车的理由变得更加困难。这将继续支持市场份额的增长以及电动汽车成本曲线的下降。

Next, I want to revisit yesterday's topic of Dojo and AI as I was streaming Elon also shared some more comments on this on Twitter, noting that Dojo has actually been online and running useful tasks for a few months, which isn't actually anything new because Tesla did announce that at AI day two. But obviously the graphic that we talked about yesterday said start of Dojo production in July this year, which is yet to come. So whatever they have been doing and whatever they plan to do going forward, there is an inflection point that they anticipate happening in July. Separately, Elon also gave us an update on the revision to the auto wipers. He has said before that that's still single frame single camera yet to be updated to surround video, but he is saying that actually smart auto wiper software releases in about three weeks. So I think we're all very much looking forward to that. And then he also says that our patented actually smart summon is probably a month or two after that, which I feel like we may have heard that before. So as usual, maybe don't put a ton of stock in it, but it will be here eventually. And I'm very much looking forward to seeing how it performs.

接下来，我想重新讨论一下Dojo和人工智能，因为我在直播时，Elon也在Twitter上分享了一些更多的评论。他指出，Dojo实际上已经上线并运行了一些有用的任务几个月了，这并不是什么新鲜事，因为特斯拉在AI day two上宣布过。但显然，我们昨天谈论的图表显示，Dojo的生产将从今年7月开始，这还没有到来。所以无论他们过去做了什么，将来打算做什么，他们都预计在7月会出现一个拐点。另外，Elon还向我们更新了自动雨刷的修订版。他之前曾经说过，那仍然是单帧单相机，还没有更新到周围视频，但他表示，智能自动雨刷软件实际上将在大约三周后发布。所以我想我们都非常期待它的到来。然后他还说，我们的智能召唤专利可能会在一个多月后或两个月后发布，我感觉我们以前可能听过这个。所以像往常一样，可能不要太在意，但它最终会到来。我非常期待看到它的表现。

Alright, last couple of items JD Power has released their initial quality study for 2023. This is never a study that Tesla performs particularly well in. And as we have talked about when this has come out in the past, and like we've talked about, one reason for that might be Tesla's inclusion of more technology in their vehicles than other brands might have. Similar to issues that we've talked about with how consumer reports grades things, there doesn't seem to be really any control for where problems occur here, and how number one impactful those might be or number two, the influence that those might have on quality or reliability over time, which I think is how a lot of people interpret initial quality scores or in the case of consumer reports or liability scores.

好的，最后几个项目是JD Power发布了他们2023年初期质量调查报告。特斯拉通常在这项调查中表现不佳。我们之前已经谈到过，一个原因可能是特斯拉比其他品牌在车辆上使用更多的技术。与我们谈论的消费者报告评分问题类似，这里似乎没有对问题出现的位置进行任何控制，也没有对这些问题有多大的影响或者它们可能对质量或可靠性随时间发生的影响的控制。我认为这就是很多人对初期质量得分或在消费者报告的可靠性分数上的解释方式。

But when you dig in is often not the case, especially when with a brand like Tesla, it's getting updated. Some of those features are getting updated over time. Anyway, as usual, Tesla not officially ranked because they don't allow customer data to be reported to JD Power in states that they have the option to not allow that, which is nice. Most brands just seem to pass over that data happily, but from the scores they are able to collect, they say that Tesla has 257 problems per 100, which would be near the very bottom of the list and 33% more than the average brand, but ahead of other newer EV brands like Polestar at 313, Lucid at 340, Rivian at 282, and overall industry-wide JD Power is reporting that problems per 100 was up pretty significantly year over year, and their first comment about this in this entire press release is that, quote, the continuing decline in quality can be attributed to multiple factors, such as greater usage and penetration of technology, end quote. So hey, JD Power, maybe that's an indication that you should be partitioning out parts of the survey, and I'm sure they probably do this for their actual customers, but for these rankings and these awards, are they really studying what they initially set out to be studying with this? Probably not so much anymore.

然而，当你深入挖掘时，通常情况并非如此，尤其是对于像特斯拉这样经常进行更新的品牌。其中一些特性随着时间推移得到更新。无论如何，特斯拉通常没有被正式排名，因为他们不允许客户数据被报告给JD Power，这在他们有权不允许的州份中是很好的。大多数品牌似乎都很愉快地忽略了这些数据，但根据他们所收集的分数，他们表示特斯拉每100个问题中有257个，距离排名末尾非常近，比平均品牌高33％，但领先于其他较新的电动汽车品牌，如Polestar 313，Lucid 340和Rivian 282，而整个行业的JD Power表示每100个问题显著增加了很多，第一个评论就是：“质量不断下降可归因于多种因素，例如技术的更广泛使用和渗透。”那么，JD Power，也许这是你应该将调查的一部分分出来的一个指示，我相信他们可能会为他们的实际客户做到这一点，但对于这些排名和奖项而言，他们真的研究了他们最初的研究目的吗？可能不再是那么重要了。

They even specifically call out problems with driver assistance systems. What that has to do with initial quality, I don't know that to me seems completely separate. For example, if someone owns a Tesla and they experience phantom breaking once and they report that, that would take Tesla's problems per 100 vehicles up in this initial quality study. And then, hooray, everyone gets to go say that Tesla doesn't make reliable vehicles because look at this low initial quality score. It just doesn't make any sense at all, you could have a car that doesn't have any driver assistance system that then doesn't even have the opportunity to have problems in that area. If you want to call that initial quality, I guess go ahead, but in that case, the best initial quality would just be to not have a car at all.

他们甚至特别指出了驾驶辅助系统的问题。我不知道这与初始质量有什么关系，对我来说似乎完全不同。例如，如果有人拥有一辆特斯拉，他们经历了一次幻影刹车并报告了这一点，那将会使特斯拉每100辆车的问题数量增加，这将会在这个初始质量研究中被记录下来。然后，万岁，每个人都可以说特斯拉不制造可靠的车辆，因为看这个低初始质量分数。这根本没有任何意义，你可能拥有一辆没有任何驾驶辅助系统的车，那么这个区域就没有问题的机会。如果你想称之为初始质量，那我猜你可以这样做，但在这种情况下，最好的初始质量就是根本没有车。

Alright, let's move on from that.

好的，让我们继续进行，不再讨论那个问题。

The last topic for today is an announcement about a major loan for Ford. The Department of Energy has announced that they have agreed to a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $9.2 billion to Blue Oval SK, which is a partnership between Ford and SK on for battery production factories in the United States, one in Tennessee, and two in Kentucky. The three factories in aggregate are eventually expected to reach capacity of 120 gigawatt hours per year. So this is a conditional commitment to basically the intent to proceed with the loan, but there will still be requirements for Blue Oval SK to achieve the financing. And that would likely be tranche-based as certain milestones are reached. But initially seems like a pretty big win for them, obviously a lot of potential capital there to finance those plants.

今天的最后一个话题是关于一笔给福特的重大贷款的公告。美国能源部宣布，他们已经同意向福特和SK合作的Blue Oval SK提供一笔最高达92亿美元的有条件贷款，用于在美国建设电池生产工厂，其中一个位于田纳西州，另外两个位于肯塔基州。这三个工厂预计最终将达到每年120千兆瓦时的产能。因此，这是对继续贷款意图的有条件承诺，但是对于Blue Oval SK来说，仍然需要达到融资的要求。这可能是在达到一定里程碑时进行分阶段的，但最初看起来他们已经赢得了一个很大的胜利，显然有很多潜在的资本可以用于资助这些工厂。

Alright, that will wrap it up then for today. As always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. Also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday, June 23 episode of Tesla Gaming. Thank you.

好的，今天的节目就到这里结束了。一如既往，谢谢你们的聆听，请确保你已经订阅并开启了通知。同时，你也可以在Twitter上找到我的账号Tesla podcast。我们明天见，在6月23日周五的特斯拉游戏节目中。谢谢。