Markets Weekly June 17

Hello, my friends. Today is June 17th. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week, we're going to talk about three things. First, we're going to talk about whether or not the rally is finally over. Secondly, we will give an update on how the TGA is being refilled. And lastly, we'll review some of the central bank speak that happened this past week and there was a lot of it.

大家好，今天是6月17日，我叫约瑟夫，欢迎收听本周市场新闻。本周我们将探讨三个话题。首先，我们将讨论股市的上涨是否已经结束。其次，我们将更新TGA账户的充值情况。最后，我们将回顾过去一周中央银行发布的许多言论。

OK, starting with the rally. Now, over the past few weeks, as we've seen, the stock market only goes up. And from my perspective, that's been a very, very dangerous development. You never want the stock market to go straight up because that suggests that there's some sort of mania, some sort of instability. And usually, you know, just like Mount Everest, if it looks like it's going to straight up on one side, on the other side, it's oftentimes a lot of downward volatility.

好的，从集会开始。在过去的几周里，正如我们所看到的，股市只有上涨。在我看来，这是非常非常危险的发展趋势。你永远不希望股市一直涨，因为这意味着有一些狂热，一些不稳定因素。通常情况下，你知道，就像珠穆朗玛峰一样，如果它看起来要直上直下，另一侧通常会有很大的波动性。

Now, some of the really smart people that I respect are thinking that we should be really cautious and they're looking at this from the perspective of options. So as we've all learned through the, for example, GameStop, GammaScreens and so forth, options play a big role in driving stock prices. On Friday, we saw the indexes down a bit and that coincided with a major options expiry. So in the options world, you have weekly options, you had monthly expiring options, but the really big options expiry dates are quarterly.

现在，我尊敬的一些非常聪明的人认为我们应该非常谨慎，他们从期权的角度来看待这个问题。因为像 GameStop、GammaScreens 等，我们都了解期权对于推动股票价格起到了重要作用。上周五，我们看到股指下跌了一点，并且这也恰好是一次大规模的期权到期。在期权市场，有周期期权、月度到期期权，但真正大规模的期权到期日期是季度性的。

So that's those are the expiration dates that are that have a lot of open interest. Now, what I've learned from studying really smart people like Jim Carzone, Spark Gamma, Squeeze Metrics, is that the mechanism through which the options affect the underlying stock market is through market maker hedging. So structurally speaking, the real money investors, they are long puts and short calls. So let's say that you manage a billion dollar portfolio, well, you got to hedge some of that downside, right?

那么这些到期日就是那些具有大量未平仓合约的日期。现在，我从研究像Jim Carzone、Spark Gamma和Squeeze Metrics这样聪明的人中学到的是，期权影响基础股票市场的机制是市场做市商对冲。因此，从结构上讲，真正的投资者长看跌期权和短看涨期权。假设你管理一个10亿美元的投资组合，你必须对冲一些下行风险，对吧？

So you go and you buy puts and maybe to offset some of the costs of the puts and maybe to earn a little bit of income, you sell calls, but your calls are covered because you actually own the underlying stocks. Now, with, when the real money community does this in a structural way, obviously they have to trade with someone and that someone is usually a market maker. So market makers take the other side of this trade. They are short puts and long calls, but market makers are not like speculators. They're not trying to get make money through directional exposure.

你可以买看跌期权来锁定保险，也可以卖看涨期权以抵消一部分成本并赚取一点收益，但是你出售的看涨期权是有保障的，因为你实际上拥有相关的股票。真正的金融交易者会按照结构化的方法进行这种操作，他们必须和某人交易，这个人通常是市场制造商。市场制造商扮演着相反的角色。他们是售出看跌期权和买入看涨期权的一方，但市场制造商并不像投机者。他们不会通过方向性暴露获利。

What they're trying to do is to make money off of the transaction fees. And so when they are either long options or short options, they go and they hedge that by buying or selling the underlying. For example, let's say the real money investors of course bought a whole bunch of puts from the market makers. So the market makers are short puts. Now, that means that if the stock market goes down, well, the puts become more valuable. That is to say the short puts become more of a loss towards for the market makers.

他们试图做的是通过交易费用赚钱。所以当他们是看涨期权或看跌期权时，他们去进行对冲，买入或卖出相关资产。例如，假设真正的投资者从市场制造商那里购买了大量看跌期权。因此，市场制造商是看跌期权的卖方。现在，这意味着如果股市走低，看跌期权就会变得更有价值。也就是说，看跌期权对市场制造商而言变得更加亏损。

Now, the market makers, they don't want to speculate on direction. They're only there to make their fees. So when they are short puts, they have to hedge themselves by shorting stocks. Okay, so that means that when the market declines from the market makers perspective, they are losing money on their short puts, but they're making money on their short stock. So they are so they are hedged. Now, now the question is of course, how much stock do they have to sell given their options exposure?

现在，做市商并不想在方向上进行投机。他们只是为了赚取佣金而存在。因此，当他们做空看跌期权时，他们必须通过做空股票来对冲。也就是说，从做市商的角度来看，当市场下跌时，他们在做空看跌期权上亏钱，但在做空股票上赚钱。因此，他们是对冲的。现在问题是，考虑到他们的期权敞口，他们必须卖出多少股票呢？

Now that is actually going to vary a lot. It's going to vary depending upon where implied volatility is. And of course, how many days they are left towards X-chery. Because the more days there are towards X-chery, the more probability it is that eventually the options will end up in the money. And so the market maker who is short puts might end up with a loss. So when there's a lot of time towards X-chery, the all things equal, the market maker who was short puts in my example is going to have to short more stock.

这实际上会有很大的变化。这将取决于暗示波动率的位置以及离到期日还有多少天。因为离到期日还有更多天，期权最终会到达赚钱位置的概率就更高。因此，作为卖出看跌期权的市场制造商可能会遭受亏损。因此，在距到期日较长的情况下，一切平等，我例子中的市场制造商将不得不卖出更多的股票。

But as we approach options expiry, there's less and less time for that put position to become in the money. So as we approach these big options expiry days, the marketing making community who is structurally short puts has to gradually buy back the stock they sold to hedge that position. And those flows are very supportive for the market heading into these option expiry.

但是随着期权到期日的临近，看跌期权变为实际收益的时间越来越少。因此在这些重要的期权到期日临近时，市场制造社区在结构上做空看跌期权，必须逐渐回购他们卖出的股票以对冲该头寸。这些资金流动对市场进入这些期权到期日非常有支持性。

Now to be clear, the market can move a lot and the dealers can be positioned differently. But now as we go into this options expiry, though, the stock bracket has gone straight up. And so those puts are becoming less and less valuable. And as time declines, also less and less likely to be in the money. And so the options makers are buying back their short stock position that they had initially initiated. And that's been supportive for the market over the past time.

现在明确一下，市场可以波动很大，交易商的持仓也可能不同。但现在我们进入这个期权到期日期时，股票价格一路上涨，因此看跌期权变得越来越不值钱。随着时间推移，它们也越来越不可能实现收益。因此，期权制造商正在购回他们最初持有的空头股票头寸。这在过去一段时间对市场是支持性的。

So now though, after June options expiry, the open interest is more or less cleaned and reset. And so there's more of a so those flows go away for a while. And so there's more of a possibility for us to have some downside moves.

现在，在6月期权到期后，持仓量已经基本清除和重置。因此，在一段时间内，这些流动性将消失。因此，我们有更多的可能性出现下行趋势。

Now the second thing that's happening in the options market and I'll play this interview from from Jim with TD now. Lastly, vol, vol supply is becoming unpinned. All the call short interests people wrote calls against all their stock, all the selling of vol that's been happening. It is now being squeezed out by stock replacement. You know how cheap these calls are.

现在期权市场正在发生的第二件事，我现在会播放Jim与TD的采访。最后，波动率，波动率供应正在变得无法固定。所有看跌期权的人都写了看跌期权来抵消他们所有的股票，所有正在发生的波动率售出现在都被股票替代所挤压。你知道这些看涨期权有多便宜。

There's a fundamental basis for vol bid out there. And guess what you're seeing it we're seeing big block orders coming in buying vol and all kinds of different parts of the distribution. Vol and dealer's hands is no longer pinned. It is quickly moving away from that place. And that is a dangerous recipe. You have a lot of people in the real money investment community that that are selling calls. And so they are a structural supply of volatility in the markets.

市场存在着波动率投标的根本基础。而且我们看到了买入波动率的大块订单涌入不同分布的各种部位。波动率和交易商手中的情况不再受限制，正在迅速向其他方向转移。这是一个危险的组合。真正的投资社区中有很多人正在出售认购期权，因此他们在市场上构成了波动性的结构性供给。

Now look at this from a market maker's perspective again. So a lot of real money people are selling calls. So that means the market making community is long calls. So that means the market maker is basically long gamma. So let's say that that's the position right now. Let's say that the stock market rises a bit. Well if the stock market rises a bit that means that the market makers well they're making a little bit of money off their long call position.

现在再从做市商的角度来看这个问题。很多真正的投资者都在卖出看涨期权。这意味着做市商群体持有看涨期权头寸。这也就意味着做市商基本上是持有伽马看涨头寸。那么现在假设他们的头寸是这样的，假设股市稍微上涨了一点，做市商们就可以从他们的看涨头寸中赚到一点点钱了。

But of course they're not in the business of speculating on direction. They're there simply for their fees. So as the market rises a bit and their long call position increases in value they sell the underlying to offset that. So that provides stability in the market. So when vol is well supplied or that is to say what implied vol is really low it's more difficult for the major indexes to move a lot simply because as it moves the market makers push against that move to stabilize it.

当然，他们并不是在猜测市场走向。他们只是为了他们的费用而存在。所以，当市场稍微上涨并且他们的看涨期权仓位增值时，他们会卖出标的资产来抵消。因此，这提供了市场的稳定性。因此，当波动率供应充足或换句话说，隐含波动率非常低时，对于主要指数来说，移动幅度较大是更困难的，因为随着其移动，市场制造商反向推动以稳定市场。

But what Jim is saying now is that because we have all these people who are doing you know Yolo call bets or maybe just speculating by buying more and more calls it's overwhelming the supply of of volatility the structural call sellers in the markets and that's making well implied volatility go higher and that permits larger moves in the index and that's another potential reason to be cautious going forward. It doesn't mean we're going to crash but it does mean that some of the things that have been supporting the market don't seem to be there anymore.

现在Jim说的是，由于我们有许多人参与了‘Yolo call bets’（一种赌博类型的期权买卖）或者只是通过购买更多的期权来进行投机，这超出了市场中对结构性认购卖家的供应，这也使得隐含波动率上升，从而促使指数更大幅度的波动，这也是未来要谨慎的另一个潜在原因。这并不意味着我们将会崩盘，但确实意味着一些支持市场的因素似乎已经不再存在了。

Okay the second thing we're going to talk about is refilling the Treasury General accounts. Now earlier we talked about that the Treasury General account was around $20 billion and the US Treasury had a goal to raise that to about $550 billion by the end of this month and many people were worried that that money would come out of the baking system that is to say it would be a liquidity drain and that would have a negative impact on the market.

好的，接下来我们要谈论的是如何给国库普通账户充值。之前我们已经谈到了国库普通账户大概有200亿美元的存款，而美国财政部目标是要在本月底将它提升到5500亿美元。很多人担心这些钱会从银行体系中流出，也就是会造成流动性不足，对市场会产生负面影响。

Well as of Friday the Treasury General account has risen significantly. It's gone from the low of about $20 billion to $250 billion so there's been a meaningful rebuild in the Treasury General account and at the same time it looks like the reverse repo facility has declined a lot so it actually broke below $2 trillion for the first time in a long time this past week.

截至上周五，财政部普通账户显著增加。它从大约200亿美元的低点上升到2500亿美元，因此财政部普通账户得到了实质性的重建，与此同时，逆回购业务的余额大幅下降，因此在过去这一周中，逆回购余额首次跌破2万亿美元，这是非常长时间以来的首次。

Now that together suggests that so far a big chunk of the rebuild in the Treasury General account has not come out of the banking sector but it's come out of money in the reverse repo facility which is of course neutral for markets so that feared liquidity drain doesn't seem to have happened.

现在，这表明Treasury General账户重建的一大部分资金并没有来自银行业，而是来自反向回购工具中的资金，这当然对市场来说是中性的，所以担心的流动性流失似乎并没有发生。

Now I think there's a couple reasons for this and we also have to be cautious when we interpret what's happening with the reverse repo facility. First off you know there was a lot of concern in the markets of this liquidity withdrawal. We had big investment banks writing scary pieces as to what could potentially happen and the Fed and the Treasury they are actually in tune with what happened in the markets and they respond to it and after the debt ceiling was resolved the US Treasury came out with a statement modifying their plans for refilling the TGA.

现在我认为有几个原因导致了这种情况，我们在解释逆回购交易机制所发生的事情时也必须谨慎。首先，市场对于这种流动性撤出产生了很多担忧。我们看到大型投资银行写下了一些可怕的文章，警告可能会发生什么，而美联储和财政部门都在关注市场的变化并作出了回应。在债务上限问题解决后，美国财政部门发布了一份声明，修改其重新填充TGA计划。

Initially they had planned sold in $550 billion by the end of June they revised that down to about $4.25 so they lowered their target to become more less ambitious and secondly they adjusted their bill issuance to focus more on the very short dated bills. Now I look at this and I'm thinking that they're probably doing this because they want to attract more money market funds to purchase the bills.

他们最初计划在六月底前售出5500亿美元的债券，但后来将目标下调为约425亿美元，以降低目标并更少雄心壮志。其次，他们调整了发行账单的方式，更加关注短期账单。我观察这一情况，认为他们这样做可能是为了吸引更多货币市场基金购买账单。

Now money market funds have expressed some hesitation in purchasing longer dated bills because they don't know the path of interest rates. They don't want to buy let's say a six-month bill and then see that the Fed is actually much more aggressive than their rate hikes and expected. Then they would they would be sitting on some losses and they don't like that. So one of the ways that the Treasury could overcome that concern is to issue a whole bunch of bills that are very short data let's say six weeks. So they've done that and that's I that could help money market funds participate more in bill auctions.

现在，货币市场基金在购买较长期限的票据时表现出了一些犹豫，因为他们不知道利率的走势。他们不想购买一张六个月的票据，然后发现美联储加息的幅度比他们预期的要大得多，那么他们将承受一些损失，而他们并不喜欢这种情况。所以，国库可以采取的解决这个问题的方法之一就是发行很多的短期票据，比如六周。他们已经这样做了，这可能会帮助货币市场基金更多地参与票据拍卖。

Now I don't actually think that all of this is coming out of the RAP and I still think that part of it will come out of the banking system and part of it will come out of the RAP. Now the drop in the RAP you have to be very cautious interpreting it because it's not necessarily money funds going to buy bills. It's very likely first that on June 15th we had a quarterly corporate tax payment date and money market funds are basically just big wads of cash for corporate treasuries. So with a corporate treasurer wants to make tax payments they go and they take money out of their money market fund and then go and pay the US government. So the money market fund then takes money out of the RAP gives it to the corporate treasurer and the corporate treasurer then pays taxes. That's part of it.

我并不认为所有的这一切都是来自RAP，我仍然认为部分来自银行系统，部分来自RAP。现在RAP的降价你必须非常谨慎地解释，因为这并不一定是资金用于购买票据。很可能首先是因为在6月15日，我们有一个季度性的企业纳税日，货币市场基金基本上是企业财务部门的大量现金。因此，当企业财务部门想要支付税款时，他们会从自己的货币市场基金中取出资金，然后再去向美国政府支付。因此，货币市场基金从RAP中取出资金，给企业财务部门，企业财务部门就支付税款。这是其中的一部分。

The second part of it is that on June 15th we had a major coupon settlement. So that means that a whole lot of long data treasuries were paid for by the dealer community. The way that the dealer community pays for these coupon purchases is by borrowing in the repo market and the biggest lender in the repo market is of course the money market funds and we see this in publicly available data as well. Repo volumes spiked high on June 15th and that likely suggests that money market funds were taking money out of the reverse repo facility and lending it to dealers who then took the money to settle their payments to the US Treasury. So in a sense it is draining the RAP but these drains tend to be temporary whereas the drains coming from bills tend to be longer dated since the repo loans tend to be overnight and once dealers who bought the Treasury securities sell them to their clients they no longer need to borrow money from the money market funds anymore. So I would expect the reverse repo facility to bounce back above two trillion dollars this week but over time though there's going to be more money coming out of the reverse repo facility than expected because the Treasury is adjusting their issuance to encourage that.

这段话的第二个部分是关于6月15日出现的一个重要的票面结算。这意味着经纪人群体为大量长期国库券付款。经纪人群体支付这些票面购买的方式是通过在回购市场中借贷，而回购市场中最大的放款人当然是货币市场基金，在公开可获取的数据中我们也能看到这一点。6月15日回购交易量大幅增加，这很可能意味着货币市场基金正在从逆回购设施中取出资金，并将其借给经纪人，经纪人再将这笔资金用于支付给美国财政部的款项。从某种意义上讲，这在耗尽逆回购设施中的资金，但这些资金的流失往往是短期的，而来自短期国库券的流失则往往较长期，因为回购贷款往往是隔夜的，一旦购买国库券的经纪人将其出售给客户，他们就不再需要从货币市场基金中借款。因此，我预计本周逆回购设施将反弹至2万亿美元以上，但长期而言，从逆回购设施中流出的资金将比预期的更多，因为财政部正在调整发行规模以鼓励这样做。

Now the last thing we'll talk about is all the central bank speak we had that happened this past week so we had the ECB meeting and we also had some good information from the Bing of England and Fed Governor Waller. So the ECB hiked 25 basis points and during the press conference Madame Lagarde strongly strongly signaled that they're going to hike again the next meeting. Now why are they hiking? Well honestly it's the same thing we see throughout the world. Inflation has been stubbornly high and their tools don't seem to be working as well as they thought they would.

现在我们要谈论的最后一件事是上周发生的所有央行讲话，包括欧洲央行会议以及英格兰银行和美联储沃勒联席主席的一些好消息。欧洲央行上调了25个基点，拉加德女士在新闻发布会上强烈暗示他们将在下一次会议上再次上调利率。那么为什么要上调利率呢？老实说，这与世界上其他地方一样，通货膨胀一直很高，他们的工具似乎没有像他们预想的那样有效。

The ECB in particular is very concerned about wage growth so wage growth in the Eurozone has been very strong about 5% and not just that productivity has been declining. So this is the same thing that's happening in Australia which we talked about earlier. So if you're paying a worker more money and the workers producing less then your labor costs are rising and that means that you know that that means that basically you have a situation where your wages are inflating more than a system suggested by wage growth and that could feed into other parts of the economy like services inflation which seems to be what they're doing right now and so they're trying to get ahead of this.

欧洲央行特别关注工资增长问题，因此欧元区的工资增长非常强劲，约为5%，不仅如此，生产率也在下降。这和之前我们提到的澳大利亚的情况非常相似。如果你给一个工人更多的钱但他的产出却在下降，那么你的劳动成本就会上升，这意味着你的工资膨胀速度高于工资增长所建议的系统，这可能会影响到经济的其他部分，比如目前似乎正在发生的服务业通货膨胀，因此他们试图抢先解决这个问题。

A lot of inflation so far has been in things like energy and food that's coming down but the wages side that seems resilient just like it is in the US and many other countries as well. Bank of England for example recently is suggesting that they're going to have to hike rates higher than expected as well. Why? Same problem. Wage growth continues to be very strong and even seem to accelerate this last quarter. We have a global labor shortage driven in part by demographics and so try as they try as they are these central banks are having trouble getting wages lower because even as they're trying to slow down economic activity you know we just don't have as many people joining the labor force as we use to so that's going to be a persistent problem.

目前许多通货膨胀主要出现在能源和食品等方面，尽管这部分正在下降，但工资方面似乎仍然坚挺，就像美国和许多其他国家一样。例如，英国银行最近建议他们不得不将利率提高得比预期更高。为什么？根本的问题依然存在。工资增长仍然非常强劲，甚至在最近一个季度似乎还加速了。我们全球存在一种由于人口结构导致的劳动力短缺，因此尽管这些中央银行试图放缓经济活动，劳资成本下降仍然很困难，因为我们现在加入劳动力市场的人数比以前少了，这将是一个持久的问题。

And lastly coming back to the Fed we had Fed Governor Waller give a speech that was very hawkish as you guys may have found out Waller is a great hawk.

最后回到美联储这一话题，我们有美联储理事沃勒发表了一次鹰派言论，你们可能已经知道沃勒是位强硬派。

Now Waller is talking about the trade-off more recently between financial stability and monetary policy. There is a line of thinking that if you hike rates too aggressively well you could get inflation under control but then you risk breaking something in the financial system and that would be bad too so you have to balance this pursuit of fighting inflation with financial stability.

现在沃勒正在谈论最近在金融稳定和货币政策之间的权衡。有一种想法认为，如果你过分激进地提高利率，你可以控制通货膨胀，但是你也会冒着破坏金融系统的风险，这也是不好的，所以你必须在追求抗击通货膨胀和金融稳定之间取得平衡。

Now Waller is nodding to this but then he's also noting that you know earlier in the year we moderated our rate hike path because we're worried about instability in the banking sector and perhaps that the banks might retrench a lot in their lending and so in a sense we won't need as many rate hikes as we thought earlier.

现在沃勒同意这一点，但他也注意到我们在年初时降低了升息路径，因为我们担心银行业的不稳定性，以及银行会在他们的贷款中采取缩减措施，因此从某种意义上来说，我们不需要像之前想的那么多次升息。

Then he says that well we it's not really clear that we've seen banks tightening their lending due to what happened in March. Now they have already been tightening their lending for several months in response to a slowing economy and higher interest rates but it doesn't seem likely March episode is having that big of an impact on it. So maybe that caution we had earlier in the year isn't warranted.

然后他表示，我们并不清楚银行是否因为3月发生的事情而收紧了贷款。事实上，由于经济放缓和利率上升，他们已经在数月内一直在收紧贷款，但这似乎不太可能对三月份事件产生很大影响。因此，也许我们早些时候的谨慎并不必要。

He then goes on to say that we really can't conduct monetary policy simply because we really shouldn't change the conduct of monetary policy simply because we have a few people who did a really bad job in managing their bank. You know we have to conduct monetary policy with in light of our inflation mandate and not just change it because change how we conduct policy simply because some people screwed up.

他接着说，我们不能仅仅因为某些人在管理银行方面表现很糟糕就改变货币政策的实施。我们需要在通胀目标的基础上进行货币政策，而不是因为某些人搞砸了就改变政策实施方式。

And I would also note though that the most recent dot plot had basically everyone on the FOMC signing up for more rate hikes this year and that tells me that they are looking at the data and they're in their bank system and they're not actually not seeing significant deterioration either so that's why they're comfortable pricing in more hikes. And this is also what I wrote about in April. So it looks like it's coming to fruition.

我还想注意到的是，最近的点阵图基本上是FOMC的每个成员都签署了今年进行更多利率上涨的计划，这告诉我他们正在研究数据并且在他们的银行系统中实际上没有看到重大的恶化，所以他们很舒服地价格定在更多的利率上涨。这也是我在四月份写过的。所以看起来这正朝着成果的方向发展。

Okay so that's all I've prepared for today.

好的，今天我为大家准备的就是这些了。

If you like what I'm producing please remember to like and subscribe and of course if you're interested in learning more about the financial system and markets check out my free online courses or my blog and www.outsetgo.com.

如果你喜欢我所制作的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。当然，如果你对了解金融体系和市场更感兴趣，请查看我的免费在线课程或博客，网址是www.outsetgo.com。

Alright thanks so much guys talk to you soon.

好的，非常感谢各位，很快再和你们聊。