Tesla Just Announced 4680 Battery Milestone + Giga Updates, Musk Interviews

Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, happy Friday today we are talking about a new 4680 battery production milestone from Tesla, we've also got some updates on Tesla's Gigafactory's new interviews with Elon Musk and a couple other items as well.

大家好，我是Rob Maurer，在这个开心的星期五，我们要谈谈特斯拉新的4680电池生产里程碑，同时还有最新的关于特斯拉超级工厂的更新、Elon Musk的采访以及其他一些相关内容。

Alright looking at the stock, nice day today for Tesla up 1.8% closing at $260.54 while the Nasdaq was down 7 tenths of a percent, so sort of reversing the underperformance that Tesla had had yesterday.

好的，看着股票，今天特斯拉表现不错，上涨1.8％，收盘价为260.54美元，而纳斯达克下跌百分之七，因此可以说是扭转了昨天特斯拉的表现不佳。

Alright, so Tesla had just tweeted out. A little bit before starting this episode, that they have produced their 10,04680 cell at Gigataxis this week. So a couple of things we need to contextualize there, the first question that comes to mind is does this mean that they've produced their 10 millionth cell and it just happened to be produced at Gigataxis or does it mean that this is the 10 millionth produced by Gigataxis specifically.

好的，那么特斯拉刚刚发布了一条推文。在开始这一集之前的一会儿，他们宣布本周在吉卡特西斯生产了104680个电池单体。有几个我们需要了解的背景问题，首先浮现在脑海的问题是，这是否意味着他们已经制造了第1000万个电池单体，而它只是在吉卡特西斯产生的，还是特别指的是吉卡特西斯生产的第1000万个电池单体。

So thankfully we've got a couple of other hints from Tesla's past tweets about this subject that can help us determine what is more likely. So back in December, end of December last year, Tesla tweeted congrats to the 4680 cell team on achieving 868,000 cells built in the last seven days equal to more than 1,000 cars.

所幸地，我们从特斯拉之前针对这个主题的推文中获得了一些其他的线索，这些线索可以帮助我们确定更有可能的情况。所以去年的12月底，特斯拉发推文祝贺4680电池团队在过去的七天内制造了868,000个电池，相当于一千多辆车。

So that gives us some context of where they were at at that point in time. Obviously most of this, or if not all of this production was happening at the Cato Road facility in California. And you know if you think about the production rate since this period of time it's been 25 weeks or so. So if they had only now produced 10 million over that period of 25 weeks, that's only about 400,000 cells a week, which would be much lower than the rate that they were hitting at this point in time.

这让我们了解了当时他们的情况背景。很明显，他们的大部分或者所有生产都是在加利福尼亚州的卡托路（Cato Road）工厂进行的。如果你思考自那时起的生产率，已经过去了大约25个星期。所以，如果他们现在只生产了1000万，那么在这25星期内仅生产了约400,000个细胞，这个速率比当时的速率低得多。

Obviously this could have been a peak rate and it could have dialed back production. But with them also adding production at Gigataxis at that point, it seems much, much, much more likely that this tweet today is about specifically just Gigataxis. So that's my primary thought here is that this would just be Texas.

显然，这种产量可能是一个峰值，他们可能已经减少了产量。但是因为他们在Gigataxis增加了产量，因此今天的推文似乎更有可能是有关Gigataxis的。因此，我的主要想法是这只与德克萨斯州有关。

If we look at kind of what this would mean in terms of number of vehicles then 10 million would be about 12,000 cars worth roughly in that ballpark. If you're talking a little bit more than 800 cells per car and probably talking a little bit less than one gigawatt hour of battery production. So if you assume that most of that has happened at Gigataxis specifically and over the last six months or so, it kind of gives you an idea of where the run rate would be a couple gigawatt hours a year, specifically just from Texas.

如果我们看看这意味着多少辆车，那么1千万辆约相当于12,000辆汽车，大概每辆车使用的电池细胞数量略高于800个，电池产量略低于1千兆瓦时。如果假设这些大多数是在Gigataxis工厂内，且时间为最近6个月，那么我们可以大概地了解到，Gigataxis每年的产能可能有几个千兆瓦时。

And then Tesla had said previously that Kato Road was at some point supposed to scale up to about 10 gigawatt hours per year. So I don't think they're probably there and we don't even know if those plans are still on the table. But if you kind of piece those two things together, we could be talking about hopefully a multi gigawatt hour run rate on 4680s at this point. And more importantly, hopefully scaling up pretty quickly.

特斯拉此前曾表示，加托路计划在未来扩大到每年约10亿瓦时的产能规模。因此我认为他们可能还没有达到这个目标，而且我们也不知道这些计划是否仍然存在。但是如果你将这两点联系起来，我们可能正在谈论一个多个千瓦时的运行速率，而且更重要的是希望能够快速扩大规模。

I think the other item to bring in here as context would be that Tesla has obviously started to sell the 4680 Model Y and added that to the design studio rather than just throwing those vehicles into inventory. So I think that also gives us more confidence that they're probably just talking gigataxis numbers here versus the total which would be quite low if those are going into vehicles, which clearly they are if Tesla's confident enough to put that in the design studio.

我认为，在这里还需要提供的另一个背景是，特斯拉已经开始销售4680版Model Y，并将其列入设计工作室，而不仅仅是将这些车辆投入库存。因此，我认为这也让我们更有信心，他们可能只是在谈论千吨级的数字，而不是总数，如果这些车辆已经放进去了，那么相当低，显然，如果特斯拉足够有信心将其放入设计工作室。

So exciting to see this. I think relatively good progress. Obviously, it's slower than what Tesla had originally intended, but making progress and doing so relatively quickly in the grand scheme of things feels slow day to day, but going from nothing to 10 million produced here again in six months suggests that Tesla's got some things figured out and hopefully can continue to scale pretty quickly from here. So we'll see on that, but exciting to see that milestone.

这太激动人心了。我认为相对来说进展还不错。显然，进展比特斯拉最初想象的要慢，但是在总体进程中相对快速地取得进展，从日常角度来看可能会感觉比较慢，但是在六个月内从零开始生产到1000万件的成就表明特斯拉已经找到了一些方法，并希望能够继续快速扩大规模。所以我们会拭目以待，但看到这个里程碑还是很令人兴奋的。

The next update here is from UBS. They took a tour with Tesla's IR team of Gigabirlin. So we had some reporting on that yesterday, but their takeaway was that there was really strong utilization at the factory. They had last seen it on Q3 2022. So compared to their last visit, obviously running at much higher throughput rates now, they say this is with a three shift model. And of course, as Tesla had already confirmed, hitting 5,000 vehicles per week.

接下来的更新来自瑞银。他们与特斯拉的IR团队到Gigabirlin参观了一下。所以我们昨天已经有了一些报道，但他们的结论是工厂的利用率非常高。他们上次是在2022年Q3看到的。与他们上次参观相比，现在显然以更高的吞吐量运行，据他们说这是采用了三班制。当然，正如特斯拉已经确认的，他们正在达到每周5,000辆车的生产量。

They say that the company can increase the output towards 10,000 per week with four shifts on the existing footprint with no significant additional capex required. So obviously a big deal. We don't know exactly what Tesla's plans are there. Originally the intent was to try to get to 10,000 per week by the end of 2023. Could be a little bit on pause with the macro environment. Tesla might be, as we talked about yesterday, focusing a little bit more on cost control rather than really maximizing the output at this point in time.

据称，该公司可以在现有的基础上通过四班增加产量达到每周10,000个，而不需要进行重大的额外资本支出。所以这显然是个大交易。我们不知道特斯拉的计划是什么。最初的意图是在2023年底之前试图达到每周10,000个。由于宏观环境，这可能会稍稍停滞。像我们昨天谈到的那样，特斯拉可能更注重成本控制，而不是在此时点真正地最大化产量。

So from the two where it didn't sound like there were any additional comments on that piece regarding the ramp up. Now they do say in regards to giga casting, Tesla now has six machinery units installed and there are two others to be installed soon. But for now, Tesla is only using giga casting for the rear underbody with of course, 2170s that are coming in from China rather than the both front and back giga castings and structural battery pack, which would of course utilize 4680s. So that will depend I think on how the ramp goes in Texas. They do say all batteries arrive from China. The cell building at giga, giga Berlin looks finished from the outside, but there is no production yet and a timeline for ramping up production for those cells. Aperlin was not provided. So I think that's a result of what we've previously talked about with the inflation reduction act. It seems like Tesla probably re-prioritizing a little bit in terms of battery production, at least for the time being until or if Europe responds to that sort of in kind.

所以从两个评论中我们没有听到任何关于生产升级的额外评论。现在他们提到了在超级铸造方面，特斯拉已经安装了六台机器，还有两台即将安装。但目前，特斯拉仅在后底盘使用超级铸造，当然，这些来自中国的2170电池，而不是前后都使用超级铸造和结构性电池组，这当然会使用4680电池。所以我想这将取决于德克萨斯的生产升级进展如何。他们说所有电池都来自中国。超级铸造在柏林外部看起来已经完成了，但还没有生产，关于其生产升级时间表没有提供。我认为这是之前我们谈论的通货膨胀减缓措施的结果。特斯拉似乎在电池生产方面进行了重新优先考虑，至少在一段时间内，直到欧洲采取类似的行动为止。

So I think that's what we're seeing here of no production in there yet is basically a direct result of the inflation reduction act. So I think Tesla probably just waiting to see how that plays out before really diverting potentially efforts that could be going to 4680s here in North America to 4680s over in Europe. But nevertheless, it sounds like they are planning to ramp up those front casts. So maybe they ship over from North America. Who knows?

我认为我们现在看到的还没有生产结果，基本上是通货膨胀减缓法案的直接结果。所以我认为特斯拉可能只是在等待看看这是否会发挥作用，然后再真正将潜在的努力转移到在欧洲的4680s上，而不是在北美的。但不管怎样，听起来他们正在计划加快这些前方铸件的生产速度。所以也许他们会从北美发货。谁知道呢？

All right, we've also got a lot. I wouldn't say an update necessarily about some reporting here from Reuters on China expansion plans and giga Shanghai. So we'd heard Elon talk about how there were some impediments or some challenges to expanding further in China. Obviously, he just had his visit over in China. So hopefully, you know, making some progress on some of those things. But according to the Reuters report here, China's state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission said that they have been cautious about approving new EV production plans by all automakers because of concerns about over capacity and deepening price war launched by Tesla according to executives at rival companies and analysts.

好的，我们也得到了很多信息。根据路透社对中国扩张计划和超级上海的报道，我不会说这是一个更新，我们听到埃隆谈到在中国进一步扩张存在一些障碍或挑战。显然，他刚刚在中国进行了访问，因此希望在这些方面取得一些进展。但是根据路透社的报道，中国国家发展和改革委员会表示，他们一直谨慎地批准所有汽车制造商的新电动汽车生产计划，因为竞争对手和分析师们担心产能过剩和特斯拉发起的深化价格战。

So not a direct comment here, but obviously we have seen, you know, a little bit of the weakness in the automotive market in China seems to be improving a bit, but probably makes sense that they would be potentially concerned about over capacity as there is a lot of desire to grow and expand production, whether that's from Tesla, BYD or other EV makers there in China. So further, the report says that after meetings with senior Chinese officials, including the vice premier, Musk told a small group of Tesla staff that he saw positive progress in discussions about the expansion, possible expansion in China without elaborating. So again, hopefully that alleviated some roadblocks for reduced roadblocks in China, but you know, Elon has been pretty upfront about, you know, how that sits right now. So we'll see if anything further develops there.

这不是直接评论，但显然我们已经看到了中国汽车市场的一些疲软，似乎正在逐步改善，但他们可能会担心产能过剩问题，因为特斯拉，比亚迪或其他中国的电动汽车制造商都有很强的生产扩张欲望。此外，报告称，在与包括副总理在内的中国高级官员会面后，马斯克告诉一小群特斯拉员工，他正在讨论可能在中国扩张。再次希望这减轻了某些障碍，但伊隆一直非常坦率地表达他的看法。所以我们将继续关注事态的发展。

Then we've also got a quick update on Gigataxis here as well. So apparently, according to Tesla scope, the new Model Y performance and the Model Y long range are now made with a new drive unit in the rear. So this is apparently rolling out right now as of June 13th or newer. They say that this new unit has subtle efficiency improvements and utilizes recycled materials. Some other changes were listed of varying significance, but they are not able to share those yet. So we'll see. But it sounds like at least a little bit of a, you know, maybe not next generation, but next iteration of a rear motor there for the Model Y and hopefully they'll be able to share those other changes and we'll hear a little bit more soon.

在这里，我们还有关于Gigataxis的最新信息。根据特斯拉监测，据说新的Model Y普通版和长续航版现在都配备了位于后部的新驱动单元。这似乎是从6月13日或更早开始推出的。他们说，这个新单元有微妙的效率改进，使用了回收材料。还列出了其他一些变化，但不能分享那些细节。我们就拭目以待吧。但听起来至少有一点点后置马达的下一代或新一代的迭代，希望他们能分享这些其他的变化，我们会尽快听到更多消息。

Sorry if you guys hear sirens. It sounds like it's a lot right now outside. Next update is on Powerwall. So Tesla is implementing a rebate program on Powerwall. People can receive up to $500 back, or I guess $500 back on Powerwalls that are installed between June 15th and October 31st. So Tesla's offering that $500 rebate and it does apply to multiple Powerwalls. Tesla says once confirmed, Tesla will send you a check of $500 for each Powerwall. So that'll run through October 31st as I mentioned there, which kind of an unusual timing to end a promotion like this, but perhaps has something to do with when Tesla maybe intends to launch, you know, the next generation Powerwall 3, which has been rumored quite a bit. There's been some little bits of leaks out about that, but nothing official quite yet. So we'll keep an eye on that, but that could be related to why Tesla's implementing this rebate program at this time.

对不起，如果你们听到警笛声，外面似乎很吵。下一个更新是关于Powerwall的。因此，特斯拉正在Powerwall上执行退款计划。人们可以获得高达500美元的退款，或者在6月15日至10月31日之间安装的Powerwalls可以获得500美元的退款。特斯拉提供这个500美元的回扣，并适用于多个Powerwalls。特斯拉表示，一旦确认，它将为每个Powerwall发送一张500美元的支票。正如我之前提到的那样，这将持续到10月31日，这种时机结束这种促销是有点不寻常的，但也许与特斯拉打算推出下一代Powerwall 3有关，这已经被传言许多次了。已经有一些小泄漏出来了，但还没有官方消息。因此，我们将继续关注，但这可能与特斯拉此时执行此退款计划有关。

And then yesterday we talked about with Powerwall's virtual power plant programs, particularly in Puerto Rico. We've got an update here from a Tesla executive that the story that we talked about yesterday has made some progress. And it looks like there has been some more approval and that the energy partner that Tesla would be working with on the VPP, which is the Luma in Puerto Rico, has to be ready by July 14th now with this new approval to be able to offer the VPP.

昨天我们谈到了Powerwall的虚拟电厂计划，特别是在波多黎各。我们从特斯拉高管那里得到了一个更新，昨天我们谈到的故事已经取得了一些进展。看起来已经有了更多的批准，而且特斯拉将与波多黎各的能源合作伙伴Luma一起在7月14日前准备好，以便提供虚拟电厂服务。

So it looks like some good progress there in just a day since we have last talked about the Puerto Rico VPP. Next quick update on Tesla Semi. So another recall here for the Semi from NHTSA, or I guess from Tesla, but published on NHTSA's site.

看起来波多黎各VPP方面在我们上次谈论后的一天取得了一些良好的进展。接下来是有关特斯拉半挂车的一个快速更新。NHTSA又发起了特斯拉半挂车的召回，或者说是特斯拉提出了召回建议并被NHTSA发布在官网上。

The number of vehicles involved in the recall 36, so no major change in number of semis out there, which isn't surprising. It doesn't seem like Tesla is really actively producing more after getting that test figured out to PepsiCo. This recall was not really anything significant.

召回涉及的车辆数量为36辆，因此半挂车数量没有太大变化，这并不令人感到意外。看起来特斯拉在为百事可乐公司成功通过测试后并没有积极生产更多的车辆。此次召回并没有什么显著的影响。

It's a door closure warning system issue, which I believe Tesla has resolved over the air. So the most interesting thing is the production thing here. And it talks about vehicles that were produced from November 30th to March 15th. So it could be more vehicles that are produced since then, and maybe Tesla is keeping those internally. But, you know, unfortunately, no major updates here on the number that are at least external, at least involved in this recall.

这是一个关于门关闭警报系统的问题，我相信特斯拉已经通过空中更新来解决了这个问题。因此，最有趣的事情是生产方面的问题。文件说的是从11月30日到3月15日生产的车辆。那么自那时以来生产的车辆可能更多，也许特斯拉正在内部处理这些。但是，很不幸，至少在外部，至少涉及到这次召回的数量没有太大的更新。

So the next item is an interview that Yuan did in France. He's been really active. So a number of things that we'll talk about here from the interview, probably about an hour long, nothing that people that have followed closely have really not heard before.

下一个项目是袁在法国进行的采访。他非常活跃。这次采访大概持续了一个小时，我们谈到的一些事情可能是那些一直关注他的人已经听说过的。

Obviously, the thing that is catching the most headlines is Yuan again, saying that most of the value of Tesla in terms of the market cap is primarily based on autonomy. He said at least in his opinion. So we've heard him, you know, express that before. Makes sense when he's, you know, talking about the value of autonomy being five times the value of an individual vehicle. That's just kind of how Elon thinks about it.

很明显，最吸引注意力的事情是袁建平再次表示，特斯拉的市值大部分基于自动驾驶技术。他说，至少在他看来是这样的。我们之前已经听过他这样说过。当他谈到自动驾驶技术价值是单个车辆价值的五倍时，这是有道理的。这就是埃隆的想法。

So we won't go too deep into that as we've discussed it before. And Elon again said, although I've said this before, I think we will solve autonomy soon. So another update on that. And probably the only other thing of note relating to Tesla was that he did say that Tesla should be at almost two million vehicles this year, something like that.

因为我们之前已经讨论过这个问题，所以我们不会深入探讨它。而且埃隆再次表示，尽管我之前已经说过了，我认为我们很快就可以解决自主性的问题。所以这是关于这方面的另一个更新。而且，可能和特斯拉有关的唯一其他值得注意的事情是，他说特斯拉今年应该可以生产近两百万辆车，大概是这样的。

So it was just a rough ballpark, but that was his comment in terms of, you know, kind of Tesla's size in terms of automakers and how many deliveries they might have this year. So nothing new there. That's kind of what Tesla's guided to between, you know, that 1.8 to stretch goal, two million number. And it sounds like that's, you know, still kind of what Elon is thinking for this year.

这只是个大概的估计，但他的评论是关于特斯拉在汽车制造商中的规模以及他们今年可能交付的数量。这并不新鲜。特斯拉的指导范围在1.8到2百万之间，看起来伊隆今年的想法也差不多。

Now, as I mentioned, Elon did have some other meetings with, including with Bernard Arnow. So two of the richest men in the world, you could call them top two, depending on, you know, how you're ranking those and if you include some, maybe family money elsewhere. But obviously two very wealthy individuals here. It sounds like they, you know, Elon and his mom met with their family.

正如我提到的，埃隆和伯纳德·阿尔诺等人有其他会议。所以你可以称他们为世界上最富有的两个人，具体取决于如何排名以及是否包括其他某些家族的财富。但显然，这是两个非常富有的人。听起来他们，埃隆和他的妈妈与阿尔诺家族见面了。

So not sure exactly what was discussed. It doesn't sound like that's been reported on, but one of the sons here was also part of the panel today in that interview, you know, asking you on questions. So kind of interesting to see, probably mostly would be focused on Twitter and advertising type of stuff would be one of us guests and, you know, whatever else sent to billionaires discuss at their leisure. You want also met again, as we anticipated with the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, and no further reporting that I've seen on what they have discussed, but obviously they're pushing, you know, France is pushing for some investment from Tesla with Macron saying, let's work together.

不确定到底讨论了什么。似乎还没有报导，但这里的一个儿子今天也是面板成员，在那个访问中向您提问。所以能看到的东西可能主要集中在 Twitter 和广告等类型的东西上，其中一个嘉宾会谈到这些。还有，不论富豪们闲聊什么。 正如我们预期的那样，您也再次见到了法国总统马克龙，但是我还没有看到进一步的报导，他们讨论了什么。但显然，法国正在推动从特斯拉获得一些投资，马克龙说，让我们一起工作。

So maybe more to come on that. Definitely a lot of action in France right now. And a couple more Elon interviews that will be coming up. So on Monday, there's going to be a guest or Elon will be a guest on a newspaper program, it sounds like there in France as well. And then Zuby music on Twitter tweeted that Elon will have a new podcast or he'll have a new podcast with Elon that will be published tomorrow morning.

也许还有更多的消息。现在法国非常活跃。还有几次埃隆的采访即将发布。据说，周一，法国某家报纸的节目将邀请埃隆为嘉宾。还有，推特上的Zuby音乐表示，埃隆将会有一个新的播客，将于明天上午发布。

So a couple more interviews for Elon to look out for. And then for the rest of the calendar, we do have a market holiday on Monday. So the NASDAQ will be closed for Juneteenth. And then we do have a couple of other macro items next week, but most likely no episode with the markets closed on Monday.

埃隆需要注意接下来还有几个采访。接下来的日历上，周一是市场假期，因此纳斯达克将关闭以庆祝“节日”（Juneteenth）。下周我们还会有一些其他的宏观消息，但很可能由于周一市场关闭，不会有市场更新的节目。

All right. So that our episode for today and for the week as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast and we'll most likely see you on Tuesday for the June 20th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.

好的，今天和这一周的节目就到这里了，感谢您的倾听。请确保订阅并开启通知。您也可以在Twitter上找到我，我的账号是Tesla podcast。我们很可能在星期二的6月20日的节目中再次见到您。谢谢。