FOMC Debrief June 2023
发布时间 2023-06-15 00:00:34 来源
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Hello, my friends. Today is June 14th and this is my June FOMC meeting debrief.
大家好。今天是6月14日，我想和大家谈论一下我在6月FOMC会议后的情况通报。
Now, before we get into what happened at the VED meeting, let's talk about where we are. So, just a level set a bit.
在我们开始讨论VED会议的内容之前，让我们先了解一下我们现在所处的位置。简单来说，先了解一下基本情况。
So, we had a rate hike at the last meeting and between then and now, data was, you know, reasonably positive. We had unemployment beating to the upside and to be clear, it's been beating expectations for quite some time now. We also had an inflation print, which where the headline inflation is coming down, the core inflation, which the Fed cares about, much, much more, remains pretty elevated.
所以，在上一次会议上，我们进行了加息，并且在那之后，数据还算是相对正面的。我们的失业率数据超预期，需要明确的是，它已经超出预期相当一段时间了。我们还有一个通货膨胀指数，其中头条通胀在下降，但是美国联邦储备委员会关心的核心通胀仍然相对较高。
So, during the inter-meeting period, we had Governor Waller come out and say that, you know, he doesn't think that we're done hiking, but he is open to skipping this meeting. So, from his perspective, we would either hike in June or we could hike in July, the skip. After markets heard him, markets were pricing in increasingly aggressive potential of a hike in June. But after he spoke, future Vice Chair Jefferson came and he was all in on the skip. So, he very patiently said that he's on Team Skip. Okay.
在会议期间间隔期间，沃勒州长表态称，他认为我们还没有结束加息，但是他也可以跳过这次会议。从他的角度来看，我们可以在六月份加息，或者跳过六月份，在七月份加息。听到他的声音后，市场开始将加息的可能性越来越聚焦在六月份。但是，在他发表述之后，未来的副主席杰斐逊表示“全力支持跳过”。他非常耐心地宣布他是“跳过派”的一员。
So, once he said that the odds of a June hike went down significantly and people were placing bets on a July hike. So, that's where we get to today. Today, it was widely expected that the Fed would skip and that they would review a more hawkish dot plot. So, all in all, it would be a hawkish skip. And in my perspective, they deliver that very well.
因此，他曾经表示六月加息的可能性显著降低，人们开始打赌七月将会加息。这就是今天的情况。今天，人们普遍预计美联储会跳过这次加息，并审查更鹰派的点阵图。总的来说，这将是一次鹰派的跳票。在我看来，他们表现得非常出色。
Okay. First off, obviously, they did not hike. Secondly, the hawkish part of this skip comes from their dot plot projections. So, every quarter, the Fed produces a set of projections where each FOMC member notes down where they think inflation and growth and the overnight will be at the end of this year, the next year and the following year.
首先，很明显，他们没有加息。其次，这种“鹰派”跳跃是来自他们的点阵图预测。每个季度，联邦储备委员会（FOMC）会制作一组预测，每个委员会成员都会记录下他们认为通胀、增长和隔夜利率在今年、明年和后年的末期会处于什么水平。
I expected that the dot plot to show a higher Fed funds rate for the end of this year. But what was shown was more hawkish than my expectations. So, in March, the dot plot was showing that the Fed expected the federal funds rate, a median expectation of about 5.1% at the end of this year. Now, today, the dot plot shows the expectation is 5.6% at the end of this year.
我原本以为点阵图会显示今年年底联邦基金利率更高，但结果比我的预期更为鹰派。因此，在3月份，点阵图显示联储局预计今年年底的联邦基金利率中位数预期为约5.1%。而今日的点阵图显示预期将达到5.6%。
So, the Fed now is pricing again two more, so, is projecting based on their current projections. Let's say two more hikes this year. And to be perfectly clear, the Fed's projections are not that great. But it is a way of telling you what they're thinking about right now. So, today, they told you that they're skipping today, but they are thinking about hiking two more times this year. And that is more than was projected in March. So, in my view, that's about as hawkish as it could be.
现在美联储又开始考虑加息两次，根据他们的目前预测来进行投影。也就是说，今年可能会再加息两次。需要明确的是，美联储的预测并不是那么乐观，但这是他们目前的想法。今天，他们告诉你他们不会在今天加息，但是他们正考虑在今年加息两次，这比三月份的预测多出一些。从我的观察来看，这是可能出现的最鹰派的情况了。
The second part that I've found this more hawkish than expected is that the individual dot plots, which are plotted, show that there's widespread agreement on the FOMC that we should hike two more times this year. So, right now, there's kind of a discussion, a fight between the delves and the hawks on the FOMC. It was easy to get everyone on the same page to hike from zero to 500 basis points. But as we go further in the tightening cycle, there's a lot more disagreements.
我发现第二个部分比我预期的更加强硬，原因是点形图表明FOMC成员普遍认为我们应该在今年再加息两次。目前，FOMC内部存在熊派和鹰派的讨论和争斗。零基点到五百基点的加息阶段让大家很容易达成共识。但随着货币政策越来越收紧，意见越来越不一致。
The Dovish people, they want to be more cautious, and the hawkish people would point towards entrenched inflation and want to hike a bit more. So, what surprised me is that despite this apparent disagreement, there's widespread support on the FOMC to hike twice this year. So, again, I read that as pretty hawkish.
鸽派人士想要更为谨慎，而鹰派人士则会指出通胀已经根深蒂固，需要再加息一些。因此，让我感到惊讶的是，尽管存在这种明显的分歧，但FOMC广泛支持今年加息两次。因此，我认为这是相当鹰派的表现。
Now, this response, though, is perfectly in line with their broader forecasts. So, in March, their forecasts were that we would hike to 5% and then GDP would slow down, inflation would come down, and unemployment would take up. Well, now in June, none of those forecasts are happening. In fact, GDP has been stronger than expected. The Atlanta Fed note, GDP data, which is very noisy and will be revised, but so far as pointy towards GDP growth, this quarter of about 2%, which is above trend.
然而，这一回应与他们更广泛的预测完全一致。所以，在三月份，他们的预测是我们会升息至5％，然后GDP会放缓，通胀会下降，失业率会上升。嗯，现在到了六月份，这些预测都没有发生。事实上，GDP比预期强劲。亚特兰大联储注释称，GDP数据非常嘈杂并将被修订，但目前指向本季度的GDP增长约为2％，超出趋势水平。
And as you know, unemployment rates is still around multi-decade lows, and we did have a pretty strong jobs report last month. And inflation, well, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, core PCE, has basically been stuck between 4% and 5% for the past several months. So, all in all, things are not evolving according to the Fed's expectations in March.
正如您所知，失业率仍处于数十年来的最低水平，上个月我们确实有一个相当强劲的就业报告。而通货膨胀，即使是美联储最喜欢的核心PCE通胀指标，在过去几个月基本上一直停留在4%和5%之间。总的来说，事情并没有按照美联储在三月份的预期发展。
Now, during the meeting, there's a lot of questions about, you know, if Chair Powell, why don't you just hike now? Why don't you just, you know, why skip a meeting if you think that you need to do more? So, Chair Powell gave a really good refresher on how he's thinking about this.
现在，在会议期间，有很多关于主席鲍威尔为什么不立即加息的问题。如果你认为需要做更多，为什么不跳过一次会议呢？所以，鲍威尔主席对他如何思考这个问题给出了非常好的提醒。
Now, this is helpful for us to understand because it's helpful for us to be able to predict how the Fed will act in the future. So, in response to the question why the Fed isn't just hiking this month again since they thought that they would hike again later twice this year. Chair Powell noted that, well, you know, of course, we don't have to hurry right now because when thinking about rate hikes, there are three things he keeps in mind.
这对我们理解非常有帮助，因为它让我们能够预测联邦储备委员会未来的行动。因此，在回答为什么联储不仅本月再次加息，因为他们认为他们今年后期还会再次加息时，鲍威尔主席指出，我们现在当然不需要急于行动，因为在考虑加息时，他会牢记三件事情。
First is the pace of hikes. Second is how high he wants to hike. And lastly is how long he's going to hold rates where they are. So, last year, you know, Fed was really, really behind.
首先是加息的速度。其次是他想加息的幅度。最后是他要保持利率不变的时间。去年，你知道，美联储真的非常落后。
inflation was really high. So, they hike rates very aggressively. You know, they did a bunch of 75 basis points hikes. Quickly got to around 5%. And now that they're closer to where they want to be, the Fed feels like they have time to just kind of, you know, adjust rates up a little bit at their leisure because they're really close to where they want to be. They're just not exactly clear just how much further so they can take their time.
通货膨胀率非常高，因此他们采取了非常积极的加息措施。他们进行了一系列75个基点的加息，并迅速达到了约5%的利率水平。现在他们接近他们想要的水平，联邦储备委员会觉得他们有时间稍微调整一下利率，因为他们非常接近他们想要的利率水平。他们只是不太清楚还能再涨多少，所以他们可以花时间观察。
And the last thing that the Fed, that the Chair Powell noted was how long he wants to hold rates around here. And as the Fed has been saying over and over again, they want to hold rates higher for longer, so longer than what the market has been expecting.
联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔提到的最后一件事是他想要将利率保持在这个水平多久。正如美联储一再强调的那样，他们希望将利率保持在较高水平更长时间，比市场预期的时间更长。
Now, the market has come a long ways towards the Fed's view. Right now, they're not fully pricing in to more rate hikes by the end of the year. But over the past couple years, the market has eventually come towards the Fed. So that could happen in the coming months, especially as data seems to surprise to the upside.
现在市场已经向美联储的观点走了很长一段路。目前，市场并未完全预估到年底会有更多加息。但在过去的几年中，市场最终接受了美联储的观点。因此，在未来几个月里，这种情况可能会发生，尤其是当数据似乎向上惊喜时。
Now, if you remember our last discussion, the problem facing the Fed is something that is seen throughout the world. You have Australia, Canada, UK, the EU, everyone is dealing with stick here, then expect inflation. And everyone is hiking aggressively. So I suspect that, you know, the US, it is not going to be different. They are going to have to resume hiking after this pause, because inflation is going to be more stubborn than expected. And economic growth is actually going to be more positive than expected.
现在，如果你们还记得我们上次的讨论，美联储所面临的问题在全世界都有发生。澳大利亚、加拿大、英国、欧盟，每个国家都在应对粘滞的问题，而它也意味着通胀。现在每个国家都在进行激进的升息政策。因此，我猜想美国也不会有所不同。经过这一次停顿之后，他们将会重新开始升息，因为通胀将会比预期更棘手。而经济增长实际上将会比预期更积极。
Now, something else that kind of stood out to me was that it seemed like Chair Powell was almost calling the bottom at the housing markets, thinking, noting that it's been rebounding. I thought that was pretty interesting. So certainly housing, very interest sensitive, and it's the first place earlier, one of the first places that's either held by low rates or that is held back by higher rates.
现在，还有一件事情引起了我的注意，鲍威尔主席似乎在暗示房地产市场已经触底反弹了。他提到了房地产市场正在回升，我认为这非常有趣。显然，房地产市场非常关注利率，它是最早受到低利率影响的地方之一，也是最容易受到高利率制约的地方之一。
And we certainly saw that over the course of the last year. We now see housing putting in a bottom and maybe even moving up a little bit. You know, we're watching that situation carefully. I do think.
在过去的一年里，我们确实看到了这一变化。现在，我们看到房地产市场已经达到底部，甚至有可能略微上涨。我们正在密切关注这种情况，我认为……
So all in all, I think this was a meeting just in line with expectations. Nothing super special. One other thing that I would note is that a lot of concern has been discussed about the potential effects of the March baking panic.
总体来说，我认为这次会议符合预期，没有什么特别的。另外一个值得注意的事情是，关于三月份的备货恐慌可能会带来的潜在影响已经讨论了很多。
So there was a lot of concern from FET members that, you know, we have this thing happening in the banking sector. And maybe that might reduce the willingness of banks to make loans. They might tighten living standards. And that was part of the reason why the FET had 25 basis points last meeting instead of 50.
因为银行业发生了很多事情，FET成员感到十分担忧。可能会降低银行发放贷款的意愿，从而收紧生活标准。这也是为什么上一次FET只加息了25个基点而不是50个基点的原因之一。
Now this time around, reporters repeatedly asking the FET, hey, what are you hearing from the data? Are banks tightening their credit standards? Is there less lending and so forth? And and sure, Paul, most interestingly, just kind of dodged that all the time.
这一次，记者们不断向美联储经济预测委员会询问：你从数据中听到了什么？银行是否在收紧信贷标准？贷款是否减少了等等？而保罗一直巧妙地回避这些问题。
Even though the FET has really good data on through their network of contacts, they speak with every day as well as through their regulatory powers where they can simply just ask people, you know, what are you, what are you seeing? He dodged that. So he said that, you know, it's early. He wants to get more data.
尽管外交和贸易部（FET）通过他们每天与之交往以及通过他们的监管权力拥有对数据的真实性极佳的了解，只需询问人们，你知道的，你看到的是什么？但是他回避了这个问题。因此，他说，你知道，现在还很早。他想要获得更多的数据。
I guess that's understandable. But that was a big reason behind having a slower rate hikes earlier on. And now he's not mentioning it so much this time around. I will note though that people who have discussed this, I believe President Keshkari and also President Logan have noted that this is a concern for them, but they actually haven't seen banks pull back so much in lending due to concerns from from the March bank panic.
我想这很容易理解。但正因为这个原因，我们早期加息的速度较慢。现在他在这次讲话中没有太多提及这个问题。我还要注意到，虽然总统Keshkari和总统Logan讨论了这个问题，但他们实际上没有看到银行因为3月份的银行恐慌而在信贷方面撤回那么多。
To be clear, overall, banks have been slowing down lending for the past several months as rates have gone up and in the economic cycle is slowing. One tell though is that every individual FOMC member knows what's happening in their district and also marks down their forecast for a FET or funds rate at the end of the year on the Dopplot.
需要澄清的是，总的来说，由于利率上升并且经济周期放缓，银行在过去几个月里一直在放缓贷款。但是一个明显的迹象是，每个联邦公开市场委员会成员都知道他们所在地区正在发生的事情，并在Dopplot上记录下他们对年底的联邦基金利率（FET）的预测。
And if they're all marking down, well, not all of them, but most of them are marking down two more rate hikes this year, then it seems to me that in their judgment, the slowing down of credit creation from the baking sector hasn't been as severe as expected and may not be as big a crimp as it could be as was feared.
如果他们全部都标记下来了，也就是说，大多数人都会认为今年还会有另外两次加息，那么在他们的判断中，银行业信贷创造的减缓并没有像预期那样严重，可能不会像担心的那样造成太大限制。
So I think that's some indirect positive information that I took from this discussion.
所以我认为这是我从这次讨论中得到的一些间接积极的信息。
Okay, so that's all I prepared for today.
好的，今天我准备的就这么多了。表现出我已经展示了所有我预备的内容。
Be back this weekend.
这个周末回来。
It might be a little bit late, so I have to speak at a conference this weekend, but speak later about the weekly markets review.
可能有点晚了，所以这个周末我必须在会议上发言，但稍后再谈论一下每周市场回顾。
All right, talk to you guys later.
好的，等会再和你们聊。