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Nio Battery Pack Swapping // Everything You Need to Know

发布时间 2023-06-14 22:57:20    来源

摘要

Today I'm going to walk you through everything you need to know about Nio Battery Pack swapping. Everything from cost to some surprising drawbacks that I haven't seen discussed elsewhere. Links: https://www.makeuseof.com/how-much-cost-replace-tesla-battery/ https://twitter.com/AEONde/status/1658064514737111041 Use my referral link to purchase a Tesla product and get free credits you can redeem for awards like Supercharging miles, merchandise and accessories. https://ts.la/jordan72005 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thelimitingfactor Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/limitingfactor42069 Teespring: https://teespring.com/stores/the-limiting-factor Twitter: https://twitter.com/LimitingThe *Timeline* 00:00 Introduction 01:16 Why Nio? 01:41 Customer Facing Costs: Renting vs Owning the Pack 07:10 Customer Facing Costs: Swapping vs Charging 10:41 Throughput Swapping vs Charging 14:31 Swapping Stations: Drawback 1 // Single Point of Failure 15:19 Swapping Stations: Drawback 2 // Pack Inventory 20:31 Swapping Stations: Drawback 3 // Cost 22:42 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 1 // Speed 23:15 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 2 // Repair Costs 24:40 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 3 // Fixed Range 25:07 Owning a Battery Pack: Drawback 4 // Degradation? 28:27 Wasted Batteries? 29:52 Summary Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said

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Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee, and this is The Limiting Factor. I've been fascinated with battery pack swapping for EVs for a number of years, but most of the videos I've seen on the topic didn't answer some of my basic questions about the technology. I thought it would be a fairly straightforward topic, so I decided to do a quick 10 minute video. However, when I dug into battery pack swapping, it quickly expanded from a 10 minute video to a 30 minute video, because the basic questions I had all led down rabbit holes with some surprising conclusions.
欢迎大家回来，我是乔丹·吉西吉(Jordan Geisigee)，这是《极限因素》(The Limiting Factor)的节目。我多年来一直对电动车的电池更换技术很感兴趣，但是我看到的大部分视频都没有回答我对这项技术的基本问题。我以为这应该是一个相当简单的话题，所以我决定做一个快速的10分钟视频。然而，当我深入研究电池更换技术时，它很快从一个10分钟的视频扩展到了一个30分钟的视频，因为我所有的基本问题都引出了许多令人惊讶的结论。

For example, the fact that battery pack swapping will likely leave companies who adopt it stuck in the mud from a pack technology perspective, and that a swapped battery pack provides less than 80% of its nameplate capacity. So today I'll discuss those points along with the cost structure of renting and swapping the battery pack versus owning and charging the battery pack and much more. Let's get into it.
举例来说，采用电池包更换技术的公司，在电池技术方面很可能被锁死，而更换的电池包提供的电量不到其额定容量的80%。因此，今天我将讨论这些观点，以及租借和更换电池包的成本结构与拥有和充电电池包的成本结构等等。让我们开始吧。

Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, Twitter subscribers, and YouTube members. These are the people who sponsor my videos and make the channel possible. As always, the links for support are in the description. For this video, I'm going to be using Neo and their battery pack swapping system as an example. That's for two reasons. First, Neo's built their brand around battery pack swapping. Second, besides operating out of their home country, China, they've also started entering the European market and will likely eventually enter the US market. So there's a good chance my audience will encounter Neo at some point.
在我们开始之前，我想特别感谢我的Patreon支持者、Twitter粉丝和YouTube会员。这些支持者赞助了我的视频，使得这个频道得以存在。一如既往的，支持链接在说明里。在这个视频里，我将以Neo和他们的电池更换系统作为例子。原因有两个。首先，Neo的品牌建立在电池更换系统上。其次，除了在本国中国运营之外，他们也开始进入欧洲市场，很可能最终会进入美国市场。所以我的观众很可能在某些时候会遇到Neo。

Let's start by looking at the customer facing costs of battery pack swapping. Bear in mind that because Neo isn't clear about costs on their website, I've had to collate their fee structure from multiple sources. That fee structure varies between China and Europe. I'll be using the fee structure that's been reported out of Europe and converting it to US dollars.
让我们先看一下电池更换服务对客户的成本。请注意，由于Neo官网上没有清楚说明成本，我不得不从多个来源整合他们的收费结构。此收费结构在中国和欧洲之间有所不同。我将使用欧洲报道的费用结构，并将其转换成美元。

When you buy a Neo vehicle, you can either rent the battery pack or own the battery pack. Obviously, buying the battery pack has a high one-off upfront cost and the rental option has lower upfront costs but means paying a monthly fee for as long as the customer owns the vehicle. Beyond that, there are two battery pack sizes available. A standard range 75kWh battery pack and a 100kWh long range battery pack.
当您购买Neo的车辆时，可以选择租用电池组或拥有电池组。显然，购买电池组需要高额的一次性前期成本，而租赁选项则具有较低的前期成本，但意味着客户在拥有车辆的同时需要支付每月费用。除此之外，还有两种电池组尺寸可供选择。标准75kWh电池组和长达100kWh的超长续航电池组。

If a customer chooses the ownership option, the 75kWh battery pack costs $13,000 and the 100kWh battery pack costs $23,000. Is that fair? Let's look at that two ways. First, from the perspective of profit margin. Currently, the manufacturing cost of high nickel battery packs is around $150 per kilowatt hour which means the 75kWh pack costs Neo around $11,000 and the 100kWh battery pack costs them around $15,000.
如果客户选择拥有权选项，则75kWh电池组售价为13,000美元，100kWh电池组售价为23,000美元。这是公平的吗？让我们从两个方面来看。首先，从利润率的角度来看。目前，高镍电池组的制造成本约为每千瓦时150美元，这意味着75kWh电池组的成本约为Neo的11,000美元，而100kWh电池组的成本约为15,000美元。

So the 75kWh battery pack has a $2,000 profit margin and the 100kWh battery pack has an $8,000 profit margin. That is, the 75kWh pack is a fair deal and the 100kWh pack carries a luxury premium. Second, let's look at whether the high initial cost of owning the battery pack is fair by comparing it to the cost of renting the battery pack.
因此，75kWh电池组有2000美元的利润率，而100kWh电池组有8000美元的利润率。也就是说，75kWh电池组是一个公平的交易，而100kWh电池组带有奢华溢价。其次，让我们看看拥有电池组的高初始成本是否公平，通过比较租用电池组的成本来判断。

A 100kWh battery pack in a Tesla vehicle should last at least 330,000 miles. Given that Neo's vehicles are less efficient, which we'll talk more about later, let's say that their 75kWh battery packs respectively last 250k and 300kWh. The average person in the US drives 13,500 miles per year, which means Neo's battery packs should last 18 years for the short range and 22 years for the long range pack.
三个反引号中的文字说的是，特斯拉车辆中的一个100千瓦时电池组应该至少使用330,000英里。考虑到Neo的车辆效率较低，我们稍后将详细讨论，假设它们的75千瓦时电池组分别可以使用250k和300k英里。美国人的平均年行驶里程为13,500英里，这意味着短程Neos电池组应该可以使用18年，而长程电池组则可以使用22年。

When we amortize the cost over 18 and 22 years, it comes to $58 per month for the 75kWh pack and $87 per month for the 100kWh battery pack. If the customer chooses to rent the battery pack instead, the cost is $180 US dollars per month for the 75kWh pack option and $315 US dollars per month for the 100kWh pack option.
当我们将成本分摊到18年和22年后，75kWh包的每月成本为58美元，100kWh电池包的每月成本为87美元。如果客户选择租用电池包，则75kWh包选项的成本为180美元每月，100kWh包选项的成本为315美元每月。

That means it costs 3 times as much per month to rent the battery pack instead of owning the battery pack. And stretching that over the life of the battery pack on the low end, renting the 75kWh battery pack ends up costing $40,000 over the course of 18 years, which is $27,000 more than the cost of owning the battery pack. On the high end, renting the 100kWh battery pack ends up costing $84,000 over the course of 22 years, which is a whopping $61,000 more than the cost of owning the battery pack.
这意味着租借电池包每月要花费的费用是拥有电池包的3倍。以低端的电池寿命为例，租借75kWh的电池包在18年的使用期内最终成本为$40,000，比拥有电池包的成本多出$27,000。在高端的情况下，租借100kWh的电池包在22年的使用期内最终成本为$84,000，比拥有电池包的成本多出$61,000。

Setting the battery pack is clearly a much better decision if you are the average driver. The only way to tilt the scale here would be if you are driving more than around 50,000 miles per year, which would brick your battery pack within about 6 years.
“如果你是一名普通司机，那么选择安装电池组显然是一个更好的决定。唯一让情况倾向于另一方的方法是，如果你每年的行驶里程超过约50,000英里，那么你的电池组将在大约6年内变得无法使用。”

On that note, if the 18 to 22 year time frame is too abstract, another way to look at the cost of owning versus renting is how long it would take to come out ahead if you buy the battery pack instead of renting the battery pack. As shown on screen, it takes about 6 years to break even for both battery packs.
在这方面，如果18到22年的时间范围过于抽象，另一种看待拥有与租用成本的方式是，如果您购买电池组而不是租用电池组，需要多长时间才能实现收支平衡。如屏幕所示，两种电池组均需要约6年才能收支平衡。

So if you buy the battery pack then after 6 years, you can start pocketing $2,000 to $4,000 per year. 6 years in, the vehicle will only have about 81,000 miles on it, and the battery pack will be less than 1 third of the way through its life. That means the vehicle would still have 93 to 94% of its original range.
如果你购买了电池组，那么6年后，你每年可以获得2000到4000美元的收益。6年后，这辆车的里程数仅为大约81,000英里，而电池组的寿命不到三分之一。这意味着车辆仍将拥有93到94％的原始续航里程。

Some might argue that with the rented battery pack you'd still have access to 100% of the battery pack at 81,000 miles, but that's not actually true. More on that later in the video.
一些人可能会认为，在行驶到8.1万英里时，使用租用的电池包仍然可以访问100％的电池包，但事实并非如此。稍后在视频中会详细说明。

Before we move on, there are three things to keep in mind here with renting versus owning. First, none of these calculations include financing costs. Depending on the length of the loan and the interest rate, that would add about another year to the break even cost for owning versus renting the battery pack.
在我们继续之前，关于租借与拥有，有三件事需要牢记。首先，这些计算都不包括融资成本。根据贷款期限和利率的不同，拥有电池组与租用电池组之间的达到成本平衡需要增加约一年时间。

Second, if a customer has the cash on hand to buy the battery pack outright, they could rent the battery pack instead and invest that money and potentially come out ahead financially. Third, when Neo first entered Europe, for the rental option, they offered a signing bonus of 600kWh per month of free charging, which is worth a couple of hundred dollars per month. My understanding is that promotion ended in March, but if something like that is available, renting the pack is worth it if the customer doesn't charge from home and if they put a lot of miles on their vehicle.
第二，如果客户有足够的现金来直接购买电池组，他们可以选择租赁电池组，并将这笔钱投资，从而在财务上更有优势。第三，当NEO首次进入欧洲市场时，他们提供了签约奖励，每月免费充电600千瓦时，价值几百美元。我了解到这项促销已于三月结束，但如果仍有类似的优惠，租赁电池组对于那些无法在家充电且行驶里程较多的客户来说是有价值的。

However, in the long term, I'd be surprised if Neo regularly offers free charging or swapping promotions. That's because they're already losing tens of thousands of dollars for every vehicle sold and eventually they have to drive towards profitability to become a viable company.
然而，从长远来看，如果蔚来经常提供免费充电或交换促销活动，我会感到惊讶。这是因为他们已经为每辆汽车销售亏损了数万美元，最终必须朝着盈利的方向努力，才能成为一个可行的公司。

While we're on the topic of charging costs, how much does it cost to swap the battery pack versus charging it? So far, we've only talked about the cost of the battery itself, not charging it. If you choose the ownership option with Neo, battery pack swapping is off limits and the customer must charge at home or charging stations instead.
当谈到充电成本时，更换电池组与充电的成本各是多少？到目前为止，我们只讨论了电池本身的成本，而没有讨论充电。如果您选择Neo的所有制选项，则更换电池组是禁止的，客户必须在家或充电站进行充电。

With that option, you pay the typical vehicle charging rates that vary depending on which country you're in. If you rent the battery pack, you can either use the battery pack swapping stations or use charging stations. However, it's worth noting that at least for the time being, Neo's vehicles fast charge rather slowly.
使用该选项，您需要支付因国家而异的典型车辆充电费率。如果您租用电池组，您可以使用电池组交换站或充电站。但是需要注意的是，目前为止，NEO的车辆快速充电速度较慢。

That's because they only accept 140 kilowatts of power versus the 250 plus kilowatts of other brands. Neo is rolling out a high-power 500 kilowatt charger, but that's primarily geared towards the 80% of non-neo vehicles that use their charging network in China.
这是因为它们只接受140千瓦小时的电量，而其他品牌可以接受250千瓦及以上的电量。Neo推出了一个高功率的500千瓦充电器，但主要是为了满足中国80%的非Neo车辆在他们的充电网络上充电的需求。

Moving along, there's two parts to Neo's fee structure for pack swapping. First, there's a $10 service fee for each battery swap, but customers who rent the battery pack get two free swaps a month. Second, there's a fee for the cost of the electricity that was used in the swapped battery.
移动到下一步，Neo的电池更换服务有两个部分价钱。首先，每次更换电池的服务费为10美元，但租用电池包的客户每月可以享受两次免费更换。其次，还有一项电池更换所使用电力成本的费用。

For that electricity, Neo charges the same rate that a customer would pay at a charging station. Because of that, we can effectively ignore the electricity cost when comparing the cost difference between charging stations and swapping stations.
对于这个电费，Neo收取的费用与客户在充电站支付的费用相同。因此，我们可以在比较充电站和交换站的费用差异时有效地忽略电费成本。

With that in mind, how much would the service fees for swapping add up to per year? Depending on pack size, each battery swap should provide 250 to 300 miles of real-world range. That means the two free swaps cover 5 to 600 miles of driving per month, which is half the 1100 or so miles that an average driver in the US needs per month.
考虑到这一点，每年更换电池的服务费用会达到多少？根据电池组大小，每次更换电池应该能提供实际行驶250至300英里的里程。这意味着两次免费更换可以覆盖每月行驶5至600英里，这是美国普通司机每月行驶大约1100英里的一半。

To cover the additional mileage, two additional swaps would be needed, and those swaps will incur a service fee of $10 each for a total of $20 per month or $240 per year. That is, the swapping service itself is a fair price, and the extra costs of pack swapping are buried in the battery rental agreement.
为了覆盖额外的里程数，需要进行两次额外的电池更换，每次更换需要支付10美元的服务费，每月总共为20美元，一年总共为240美元。也就是说，电池更换服务本身价格合理，而电池更换的额外成本都包含在电池租赁协议中。

If we did include the cost of electricity and assume that the customer charges at home, they'll save about $250 per year on electricity because both swapping and charging stations charge a premium for electricity. Then, if we add the service fees for battery swapping on top of the electricity premium, that makes home charging $500 to $600 less per year than pack swapping, which is over $3000 over the course of six years.
如果我们把电费算进去，并假设客户在家里充电，他们将节省大约每年250美元的电费，因为更换电池和充电站都对电费收取溢价。然后，如果我们再加上换电池的服务费，那么家庭充电每年比换电池少500到600美元，这就是在六年内节省了超过3000美元。

If a customer did charge at home, depending on the pack, that money could be used, for example, to cover financing costs and or a home charger. To wrap things up on cost, the key message here is that the reason why Neo offers battery pack swapping is the same reason any company offers a product or service to generate revenue.
如果客户在家进行充电，根据不同的套餐，这笔钱可以用于支付融资成本或家用充电器等费用。总体来说，成本方面的关键信息是，Neo提供电池包更换的原因与任何公司提供产品或服务来产生收入的原因相同。

It's not a free service, and over the long term, it can be quite expensive. Some people will find battery pack swapping useful and will be willing to pay for it. The question is, what proportion of those people are actually aware of the additional costs they're taking on?
这并不是一个免费的服务，从长远来看，它可能非常昂贵。一些人会发现更换电池包很有用，并愿意为此付费。问题是，这些人有多少真正意识到他们所承担的额外费用呢？

I've personally spoken to many potential EV buyers who think a vehicle battery is like a cell phone battery, and it'll only last a few years rather than 10 to 20 years. That is, as the public becomes more educated on EV batteries and battery charge times improve, my view is that they'll gravitate towards charging rather than swapping.
我个人与许多潜在的电动汽车买家交谈过，他们认为电动汽车电池就像手机电池一样，只能持续几年，而不是10到20年。随着公众对电动汽车电池的认识越来越深入和电池充电时间的改善，我认为他们会更倾向于充电而不是更换电池。

On that note, let's move on from customer facing costs and compare the throughput speeds of swapping stations versus charging stations. Neo recently launched their version 3.0 battery pack swapping station that holds 21 battery packs. That means it can support a throughput of one vehicle every 3 minutes if the batteries are in a constant rotation with a 1 hour charge speed for each pack.
在这个基础上，让我们离开与顾客费用相关的话题，来比较换电站和充电站的吞吐速度。Neo最近推出了他们的3.0版本电池包换电站，能够容纳21个电池包。这意味着，如果电池包在不断轮换，每个电池包的充电速度为1小时，那么它可以支持每3分钟进行一次车辆更换。

However, 3 minutes doesn't include pulling in and out, so in reality, the swapping time is 4 minutes and 11 seconds, which means up to 344 vehicles per day. Version 2.0, which launched in 2021, held 13 packs and could maintain a rate of roughly 1 pack swap every 5 minutes. Version 1.0, launched in 2018, held 5 packs and could therefore maintain a rate of 1 pack swap every 12 minutes. That is, they've improved the speed over time and that will likely continue.
然而，3分钟并不包括拉进和拉出的时间，因此实际上交换时间为4分11秒，这意味着每天可达344辆车。2021年推出的2.0版本拥有13个电池包容量，可以维持每5分钟换一次电池的速度。2018年推出的1.0版本拥有5个电池包容量，因此可以维持每12分钟换一次电池的速度。也就是说，他们随着时间的推移改进了速度，这可能会继续下去。

Bear in mind that the charging network is still mostly version 1 and version 2 chargers, so most of the network can't sustain V3 swapping speeds and can probably only maintain an average rate of 8 packs per hour or a swap speed of about 7 to 8 minutes including parking.
请记住，充电网络大部分仍然是版本1和版本2的充电器，因此大部分网络不能维持V3交换速度，可能只能保持平均每小时8个电池组的速率，或者包括停车在内的交换速度大约为7到8分钟。

As for charging stations, including Ingress and Egress, it's possible to fit at least 6 charging stalls in the same area as a Neo charging station. The length of the average supercharging stop is seasonal but should get below 25 minutes per charge this summer. That comes to about 346 vehicles per day for 6 stalls, which is nearly identical to Neo's battery swapping throughput of 344 vehicles per day for the version 3.0 swapping station, which is just starting to be deployed.
关于充电站，包括进出口，可以在与Neo充电站相同的区域内放置至少6个充电桩。平均超级充电停留时间因季节而异，但本夏季应该能降至每次充电不到25分钟。对于6个充电桩，每天达到约346辆车，几乎与版本3.0换电站的换电量相同，后者正在开始部署，每天可换电344辆车。

Overall, Tesla's supercharging speed has been dropping by 1.5 minutes per year and that will continue as they make improvements to routing software, improve battery chemistry and start to roll out their new V4 supercharger. That means within 5 years the average supercharger stop will be below 20 minutes and within 10 years it'll be 10 minutes. Our Invest is forecasting 4 minutes for 200 miles of range by 2027 and that is possible but it won't be at a network level.
总的来说，特斯拉的超级充电速度每年下降1.5分钟，随着他们改进路由软件、改进电池化学和开始推出新的V4超级充电器，这种情况将会继续。这意味着在5年内，平均超级充电站的停留时间将低于20分钟，在10年内将降至10分钟。我们的投资预测到2027年，每200英里的里程需4分钟充电时间是可能的，但这不会在网络层面上实现。

And the first adoption of fast charging at those speeds will likely come from an edgier Chinese car or battery company looking for a gimmick to attract media attention. The question is, if a customer is given the choice between a gimmicky vehicle that can fast charge in 4 minutes or a gimmicky vehicle that can battery swap in 4 minutes, which will they choose? In my view, charging because it'll be cheaper and chargeable at any charge station rather than proprietary swapping stations.
第一次采用这种快速充电技术的极有可能是某个具有颠覆性的中国汽车或者电池公司，他们会寻找一些能够吸引媒体关注的噱头。但问题是，如果提供给消费者选择的是一个能够快速充电4分钟的噱头车辆或者一个能够在4分钟内更换电池的噱头车辆，他们会选择哪一个呢？在我看来，充电更为便宜，而且可以在任何充电站进行，而不是专门的更换电池站。

Regardless, even if we assume a slower improvement rate of 1.5 minutes per year for fast charging, it's clear where things are headed. Eventually, the speed of fast charging will be well below 10 minutes and that's for the average vehicle. It'll happen much sooner for the newest and fastest charging vehicles on the newest and fastest chargers. So expect outliers well before then.
无论如何，即使我们假设快速充电的改进速率放慢到每年1.5分钟，事态显然已经非常明朗。迟早，快速充电的速度将远远低于10分钟，这是针对平均车辆而言的。对于最新和最快速充电设备上的最新和最快速充电车辆，它将在更短时间内实现。因此，请在那之前期待一些例外情况。

For example, when Tesla releases a 500 mile range version of the Cybertruck and if the V4 Supercharger can hit 350 kilowatts of power output, the Cybertruck should be able to charge 90 kilowatt hours in 15 minutes, which would be 250 miles of range.
举例来说，如果特斯拉发布了一款Cybertruck可以行驶500英里的版本，且V4超级充电桩可以达到350千瓦的功率输出，那么Cybertruck应该能够在15分钟内充电90千瓦小时，这相当于250英里的续航里程。

That is, in terms of throughput for a given footprint, battery pack swapping and charging are neck and neck, but charging stations have more room for improvement and will eventually dominate. I'm sure there'll be some people who prefer pack swapping, but I don't know if there'll be enough of them to support an entire swapping network when we get into the 2030s. And that's before taking into account the other drawbacks of swapping stations.
这句话的意思是，就所占空间所获得的吞吐量而言，电池更换和充电的效率差不多。不过，充电站还有更大的提升空间，最终会占据主导地位。当然会有一些人喜欢电池更换，但未来是否有足够的人支持电池更换网络尚不确定，尤其是考虑到电池更换站的其他缺点。

There are three. Let's take a look at each. First, they have hundreds of moving parts and if any of those parts fail, the whole swapping station shuts down and no one can charge. It's a single point of failure. Not only that, with more parts and more things to go wrong, diagnosis and repair can become more challenging and time consuming. That's as compared to a charging station, whether usually at least eight stalls to charge at and each of those stalls have very few potential points of failure. That allows Tesla to have an uptime of well over 99.9% for their charging stations.
这里有三个问题。我们来一个一个看。第一个问题是，它们有数百个可动部件，如果其中任何一个部件出故障，整个交换站就会关闭，没人能够充电。它是一个单点故障。此外，随着更多的零件和更多的故障点，诊断和维修可能会变得更加具有挑战性和耗时。这与充电站相比，充电站通常至少有八个充电位，每个充电位几乎没有故障的潜在点。这使得特斯拉的充电站可用时间超过99.9％。

Yes, battery pack swapping stations generally offer charging in addition to pack swapping, but if the swapping station is out of order, then the charging station now has to take double the traffic, which could increase wait times. The second drawback of swapping stations is the faster the throughput of the swapping station, the more batteries it needs to hold. NIO's swapping stations have increased from holding five batteries to 13 and now to 21 batteries in the newest version.
是的，电池包交换站通常除了交换电池外还提供充电服务，但是如果交换站出现故障，那么充电站现在必须承担双倍的交通量，这可能会增加等待时间。交换站的第二个缺点是交换站的吞吐量越快，需要持有的电池就越多。NIO的交换站已从持有五个电池增加到13个，现在又更新到最新版本的21个电池。

That's because each one of those batteries takes about an hour to charge and with more charging visits per hour, more batteries are needed. On that note, many people are under the impression that battery packs swapping will make batteries last longer because the batteries would be slow charged, which causes less degradation. That may not be the case.
这是因为每个电池需要约一个小时的充电时间，如果每小时需要更多的充电次数，那么就需要更多的电池。此外，许多人认为电池包替换会让电池使用寿命更长，因为电池会慢充电，这会导致更少的退化。但这可能并非如此。

NIO's only keeping enough packs on hand to satisfy a one hour rotation speed, which means the batteries will have to be fast charged on nearly every cycle to keep pace. I'll talk more about how NIO deals with degradation later in the video, but the key point here is that NIO's batteries are going to be put through a demanding commercial service life.
NIO仅存储足够的电池组来满足每小时轮换速度，这意味着电池几乎每个周期都需要进行快速充电以保持步伐。我会在视频后面更多地谈论NIO如何处理退化问题，但关键点在于，NIO的电池将经历严峻的商业服务寿命。

Interestingly, the fact that NIO has to increase pack inventory at pack swapping stations when they increase the speed of the swapping stations, hence to a potential albatross around NIO's neck. When NIO increases swapping speed, or if they want to change the design of their pack, they have to keep more and different types of battery packs in stock at each station.
有趣的是，NIO必须在更换站增加包装存货，当他们提高更换站的速度时，这可能成为NIO的难题。当NIO增加更换速度，或者如果他们想要改变他们的包设计，他们必须在每个站点存储更多的和不同类型的电池包。

For example, if NIO came out with a compact vehicle that used a smaller 50kWh battery pack and a NIO swapping station holds 21 battery packs, some of those would have to be the new 50kWh pack, some 75kWh and some 100kWh pack. To keep things simple, let's say 7 of each battery pack. If the station runs at anywhere near its peak rate of 21 packs per hour, what's going to happen?
举个例子，如果蔚来汽车推出一款紧凑型车辆，采用较小的50千瓦时电池组，而NIO换电站可容纳21个电池组，其中一些必须是新的50千瓦时电池组、一些是75千瓦时电池组，还有一些是100千瓦时电池组。为了简单起见，假设每种电池组都有7个。如果换电站以接近其最高速度的21个电池组每小时的速率运行，会发生什么？

Odds are that it's going to run out of one pack type. Yes, they could give a free upgrade from a 50kWh to a 75kWh pack, but that wouldn't work in reverse. Customers would be disappointed with a smaller pack than they've paid for with their rental fees. They could of course adjust the mix of packs in the swapping station to align with the local mix of vehicles, but that only decreases the odds that it runs out of packs and doesn't solve the underlying problem of matching packs to vehicles.
"可能会出现一种情况，即只剩下一种电池包类型。是的，他们可以免费将50kWh电池升级到75kWh电池，但反过来就不行了。顾客会因为租车费用所支付的电池容量变小而失望。当然，他们也可以调整交换站的电池组合以与当地车型混合匹配，但这只能降低电池用尽的概率，并不能解决电池与车辆匹配的根本问题。"

That means if NIO wanted to make a compact vehicle with a smaller battery pack, they have two options. First, they could increase the number of swapping stations, but it would be pretty frustrating for a customer to drive farther or take a detour to find a swapping station that has their pack in stock. Second, NIO could increase the stock of batteries at each swapping station, which would require expanding the battery capacity of new stations like they did from version 1.0 to 3.0.
这意味着如果NIO想制造一辆配备更小的电池组的紧凑型汽车，他们有两种选择。首先，他们可以增加交换站的数量，但对于客户而言，要驾驶更远或是绕路寻找库存有他们电池组的交换站可能会很烦人。其次，NIO可以增加每个交换站的电池库存，这将要求扩展新交换站的电池容量，就像他们从版本1.0到3.0所做的那样。

However, even if they only need to increase the number of packs at each swapping station by 7 packs, at an average pack cost of $11,000, that would mean $77,000 of additional capital outlay for each charging station. That works as long as NIO can increase the speed of charging stations proportionally with the number of packs held, but that reaches a limit pretty quickly given that their pack's swapping speed is already down to 3 minutes.
然而，即使他们只需要在每个换电站增加7个电池组，平均每组电池的成本为11,000美元，这意味着每个充电站需要额外的77,000美元资本支出。只要 NIO 能够将充电站的速度与持有电池组的数量成比例地提高，这种方式就有效，但这很快就达到了极限，因为他们的电池组更换速度已经降至3分钟。

With all that said, I don't think the additional cost and complication of holding more battery packs for each new pack design at each station is the biggest drawback of the pack inventory problem. It's the impact on innovation. There's three reasons for that.
说了这么多，我认为在每个站点为每种新电池设计持有更多的电池组的附加成本和复杂性并不是电池库存问题最大的缺点。它会对创新产生影响，原因有三点。

First, any new pack design has to be stocked at thousands of charging stations. If the new pack design turns out to be a bad idea, NIO will have to live with the consequences for a decade or more, because that's how long those vehicles will be on the road. Second, the vehicle has to be designed around the pack rather than the other way around, which means the pack, to a certain extent, will dictate vehicle design.
首先，任何新的电池组设计都必须放置在数千个充电站。如果新的电池组设计被证明是一个不好的想法，NIO 将不得不承担后果十年或更长时间，因为这些车辆将在路上行驶。其次，车辆必须围绕电池组设计而不是反过来，这意味着电池组在一定程度上将决定车辆设计。

Third, it may hamper NIO's ability to move to more advanced pack designs that can cut vehicle weight, like structural battery packs. Meanwhile, a company like Tesla that relies on charging stations instead of pack swapping is free to innovate on pack design however they like. The plug design is always the same for Tesla vehicles using Tesla chargers, regardless of what's going on with the pack.
首先，它可能会阻碍NIO转向更先进的包装设计，例如结构型电池组，以减轻汽车重量。与此同时，像特斯拉这样依赖充电站而不是包装交换的公司，则可以自由地创新包装设计。对于使用特斯拉充电器的特斯拉车辆来说，插头设计始终保持不变，不受包装状态的影响。

Beyond that, with an adapter, a Tesla vehicle can use thousands of other charging stations as well. While it's true that NIO vehicles with rented battery packs can use both swapping stations and chargers, it would be pretty frustrating to pay thousands of dollars per year for the ability to do pack swapping only to have to use a charger that takes 40 minutes.
此外，透过适配器，Tesla 车辆可以使用数千个其他充电站。虽然 NIO 租用电池的车辆可以同时使用换电站和充电器，但年度需花费数千美元仅为了换电而使用 40 分钟的充电器会让人感到非常沮丧。

On that note, some people have pointed out that NIO has said 60% of their customers prefer pack swapping over charging. Here's my thoughts on that. Many of the people buying NIO vehicles are buying them because they want access to the battery swapping feature. That is, there's a selection bias here. If a customer selects a product for a feature and pays for that feature, it's natural to expect they'd make use of that feature. From that perspective, in my view, 60% is a poor showing because 40% of the people are paying for a feature they prefer not to use. That is, unless the 40% of customers not using the feature own their battery pack, in which case they shouldn't have been included in the survey.
一些人指出，NIO曾表示其60％的客户更喜欢电池交换而不是充电。针对此，我有一些想法。买NIO汽车的许多人都是因为他们想要使用电池交换功能。也就是说，在这里存在选择偏差。如果一个客户为了一个功能而选择并为此付费，自然会希望他们会使用该功能。从我的角度来看，60％是一个糟糕的表现，因为40％的人支付了他们不喜欢使用的功能。除非那40％未使用功能却拥有自己的电池组，那么他们就不应该包含在调查中。

Let's look at the third drawback of battery swapping stations. The last version of NIO's swapping station, version 2.0, cost about $435,000 to build. Some people have claimed that NIO's new version 3.0 station, which is fully automated, will cost less to build. But I don't buy that. That's nothing to do with the full automation, but rather because it needs to hold eight more batteries than the previous version. Each of those eight batteries will cost on average $13,000 each. That adds up to $104,000 in extra battery pack inventory. $104,000 plus a station cost of $435,000 is about $539,000. I'm sure NIO is getting better at building these stations, but not enough to overcome the higher inventory cost for batteries and also not enough to overcome the fact that the swapping stations will have higher maintenance and repair costs than charging stations. Another way will say a build cost of $500,000 per swapping station.
让我们来看看换电站的第三个缺点。NIO的换电站2.0版本的建造成本约为435,000美元。有些人声称NIO的全自动3.0版本的换电站的建造成本会更低。但我不相信。这与全自动化无关，而是因为它需要存放比上个版本多8个电池。每个电池的平均成本约为13,000美元。这将增加104,000美元的额外电池库存成本。104,000美元加上435,000美元的站点成本约为539,000美元。我相信NIO在建造这些站点方面做得越来越好，但不足以克服电池的更高库存成本，并且也不足以克服换电站将比充电站具有更高的维护和修理成本的事实。换句话说，每个换电站的建造成本约为500,000美元。

In the US, each Tesla supercharger stall costs on average about $40,000 to build, which means $240,000 for a six-stall charging station. That is, as far as I can tell, a Tesla charging station will cost less than half what a NIO swapping station will cost for roughly the same throughput for a given footprint. Furthermore, Tesla's costs will likely decrease over time for two reasons. Superchargers can be built in factories and dropped in place on site. Mass manufacturing drives down cost. Second, the battery is actually most of the bottleneck for charging speed, not the charging station. Even with no changes to the charging station, as battery chemistry improves, charging times will improve. That's as opposed to swapping stations, which for the same footprint and throughput will likely decrease in cost relatively slowly. That's because half the cost of a swapping station is batteries. So the cost of the swapping station will decrease it roughly the same rate as the cost of battery cells. Battery cells will continue to get cheaper, but that's been slowing due to price materials increases.
在美国，每个特斯拉超级充电站的车位平均造价约为40,000美元，一个6个车位的充电站需要花费240,000美元。据我所知，一个特斯拉充电站的成本不到同等容量的NIO换电站的一半。此外，特斯拉的成本可能会随时间而降低，原因有两个。超级充电站可以在工厂内建造，然后在现场安装。大规模生产降低成本。第二，电池实际上是充电速度的瓶颈，而不是充电站。即使充电站没有任何改变，随着电池化学的不断改进，充电时间也会有所改善。与之相反，换电站的成本相对较慢地降低。因为换电站的一半成本是电池。因此，换电站的成本将以大致相同的速率降低，如电池电池细胞的成本。电池电池细胞将继续变得便宜，但由于材料价格的增加，其速度已经放缓。

To balance things out, let's move on to the drawbacks of owning a battery pack and supercharging. First, as I've said already, and what's immediately apparent is that charging a vehicle on a fast charger like Tesla's superchargers will take on average about 25 minutes. That's considerably slower than a four-minute battery swap. However, the 25-minute charging speed is only a drawback if a customer lives in a highly urban environment. Most supercharging occurs while the driver is making a rest stop during long trips, and most charging in general occurs at home.
接下来我们来说一下拥有电池组和超级充电站的缺点，以平衡一下观点。首先，像特斯拉超级充电站这样的快速充电器充电会平均需要大约25分钟，这比四分钟的电池更换要慢得多。但是，如果客户住在高度城市化的环境中，这25分钟的充电速度只是一个缺点而已。大多数超级充电发生在司机长途旅行中休息的时候，大多数充电都在家里进行。

The second drawback of owning a battery pack is the risk that the battery will develop a defect after the warranty ends, and the customer then has to pay for a new battery pack out of pocket. From what I can tell, Neo has a 10-year unlimited buy-all warranty on the entire vehicle. Tesla battery packs have an 8-year warranty that ranges from 100 to 150,000 miles. In either case, if the battery pack fails 8 to 10 years from now after the warranty ends, the replacement costs for those batteries will probably run about 5 to 10,000 in today's dollars. As said, the odds of the battery pack failing are fairly low. According to data by Recurrent, 1.5% of their 14,000 EV customers needed a battery replacement, and that includes recalls by companies like Hyundai and Chevy. On average, Tesla battery packs tend to have the lowest replacement rate, with their newer vehicles tending to fare better. I can't say how much of that is due to the age of the pack and how much of it is due to improvements in pack manufacturing, but both factors are probably contributing to the higher reliability for newer packs.
拥有电池组的第二个缺点是，保修期结束后电池可能会出现缺陷，客户必须自己掏腰包购买新的电池组。据我所知，Neo汽车拥有10年无限购买全保修。特斯拉电池组的保修期为8年，里程范围为10万至15万英里。无论哪种情况，如果电池组在8到10年后失效而保修期已经结束，这些电池的更换成本可能会在今天的美元价值上约为5到10,000美元。正如所说，电池组出现故障的可能性相当低。根据Recurrent的数据，他们的14,000个电动汽车客户中有1.5%需要更换电池，这包括由像现代和雪佛兰这样的公司发布的召回。平均而言，特斯拉电池组往往具有最低的更换率，他们的较新车型往往表现更佳。我无法确定这种情况在多大程度上是由于电池组的年龄和电池组制造方面的改进造成的，但两个因素都可能对新电池组的更高可靠性产生贡献。

Either way, ultimately, the customer is left with a choice, except what's probably less than a 5% chance of the battery pack failing and paying $5 to $10,000 for a battery replacement or a 100% chance of paying an extra $30 to $60,000 in rental fees.
不管怎样，最终顾客都需要做出一个选择。这个选择可能是不到5%的概率需要花费5到10,000美元更换电池组，或100%的概率需要支付额外的30到60,000美元的租金费用。

The third drawback of owning a battery pack is that you're stuck with the same range for the life of the vehicle. With Neo, you can change your plan on a monthly basis and upgrade to a larger battery pack size or downgrade to a smaller battery pack size.
拥有电池组的第三个缺点是，一辆车的寿命内你只能拥有相同的续航里程。但是在Neo里，你可以每月更改你的计划，并升级到更大的电池组容量或降级到更小的电池组容量。这样，你可以根据自身需求灵活选择，避免浪费和不必要的投资。

Currently, those pack sizes are 75kWh and 100kWh. There is 150kWh pack planned for this year, but it'll have a high price to limit availability. The fourth drawback of owning the battery pack is that it'll degrade over time. After 20 years and a few hundred thousand miles of driving, the pack would be at about 80% of its original range. The pack is good down to about 70%, so a customer can probably squeeze another 5 to 10 years out of it, but 80% is typically considered end of life.
当前，这些电池组的容量是75kWh和100kWh。今年有一个150kWh的电池组计划，但价格很高以限制其可用性。拥有这个电池组的第四个缺点是，它随着时间的推移会逐渐降解。在20年和几十万英里的行驶之后，电池组的续航里程将恢复到其原始容量的80％左右。电池组的电量可以支持到大约70％，因此客户可能还能挤出5到10年的使用寿命，但通常80％被认为是电池寿命的终点。

However, although owning the battery pack means a customer has to deal with degradation, I'm not sure if Neo's solution is much better. Bjorn Nyland did an exhaustive job of putting Neo vehicles through their paces and summarizing his experience on YouTube. Then, at AonDee on Twitter, did a great job of summarizing Bjorn's videos into one megatweet with links to Bjorn's videos.
然而，尽管拥有电池组意味着客户必须处理降解问题，我不确定Neo的解决方案是否更好。Bjorn Nyland在YouTube上对Neo的车辆进行了全面的测试，并总结了他的经验。然后，在Twitter上的AonDee通过一个超级推文很好地总结了Bjorn的视频，并附上了链接。

I'll link the tweet in the description if you're interested in reading further. What Bjorn found was that the 100kWh battery packs that Neo advertises only allow you to access about 85 to 88kWh for 100 to 0% discharge. Tesla and every other manufacturer do this as well to extend battery life, but the number is more typically around 94% for a Tesla rather than 85 to 88%.
如果你有兴趣进一步阅读，我会在描述中链接该推文。Bjorn发现，Neo广告中所宣传的100kWh电池组实际上只能让你利用大约85到88kWh的电量从100%的充电状态放电至0%。特斯拉和其他制造商也这样做以延长电池寿命，但特斯拉的比例通常在94%左右，而不是85到88%。

But then Neo takes it a step further and limits the maximum charge state to 90% at the battery swapping stations. That means the actual usable capacity from 100kWh battery pack swap is 77 to 79kWh. So although I've seen some Neo fan videos pointing out that battery pack swapping is better than charging because you get a full battery pack with each swap, it's simply not true. Even worse, Neo's efficiency is about 15 to 35% worse than their best performing competitors.
但是，Neo更进一步，将电池交换站的最大电荷状态限制为90%。这意味着从100kWh电池包更换中实际可用的容量为77到79kWh。因此，尽管我看过一些Neo粉丝视频指出电池包更换比充电更好，因为每次更换都能得到一个满电池包，但这并不是事实。更糟糕的是，Neo的效率比它们最佳表现的竞争对手要差15到35%。

That matters because although battery pack swapping is much quicker than charging, Neo's vehicles are electron guzzlers. That means less range per battery swap and swapping more often. Which of those trips to the swapping station doesn't just involve the 4 to 5 minute swapping time but also the time it takes to travel to the swapping station.
这很重要，因为虽然换电池包比充电快得多，但Neo的车是电子耗电大户。这意味着每次电池更换的续航里程更少，需要更频繁地更换。去换电站的哪一次不仅涉及到4至5分钟的更换时间，还需要前往换电站的时间。

But getting back on track, in my view, the reason that Neo places so many limits on the battery pack is to make their battery packs last longer. That could be for two reasons. First, to increase the profit they make on each battery pack throughout its life. Second, as I said earlier, they only keep just enough packs at each station to meet the maximum throughput of the station. That means they'll be charging the battery packs on an aggressive 1 hour charge cycle on every charge cycle.
然而回到正题，我认为Neo之所以对电池包设置那么多限制，是为了延长电池包的使用寿命。这可能有两个原因。第一，增加电池包的使用寿命，提高电池包每个周期带来的利润。第二，就像我之前所说，他们只在每个站点保留足够数量的电池包，以满足站点的最大吞吐量。这意味着他们会在每个充电周期上采用激进的1小时充电周期。

So placing limits on the battery pack may be the only way to make those battery packs last as long as a battery would that's mostly home charged. Regardless, the effect on the customer is that they don't get full access to the advertised capacity of the battery. In my view, that's actually a worse outcome than owning the battery pack and dealing with degradation.
将电池组的限制放置可能是让电池组的寿命与大部分在家充电的电池相同的唯一方式。无论如何，对客户的影响是他们无法完全使用电池的宣传容量。在我看来，这实际上比拥有电池组并处理退化的结果更糟糕。

That's because 100kWh Tesla battery pack can experience about 15 years of degradation before it reaches 77 to 79kWh of remaining capacity, which is what Neo provides on a brand new battery pack from a swapping station. Now that we've covered the key points of battery rental and swapping vs ownership and charging, let's look at one final point before moving on to the summary.
这是因为100千瓦时特斯拉电池组在剩余容量达到77至79千瓦时之前，可能会经历约15年的衰减，这也是Neo从更换站提供给全新电池组的剩余容量。现在我们已经探讨了电池租赁、更换与拥有和充电之间的主要要点，让我们在进入总结前再讲一个最后的要点。

Many people have pointed out that battery swapping takes batteries off the market that could instead be used in vehicles. At first, that point seems persuasive, but the more I looked into it, the more I came to view Neo's additional battery pack requirement as neutral.
很多人指出，电池交换会使市场上的电池被用于其他车辆。起初看来这个点很有说服力，但是我越看越觉得Neo的额外电池包需求是中性的。

Much like gas stations, swapping stations will have a throughput well below their peak rate for most of the week and then get hit hard at specific times like Thursday through Friday in the evenings. Each swapping station can swap up to 344 packs a day, but the reality will probably be closer to 150, which is about 1000 packs per week.
这段文字的意思是，像加油站一样，更换站在大部分时间内其流量将远低于峰值，只在特定时间（例如周四到周五的晚上）会遭受大量客流。每个更换站每天可以更换高达344个电池组，但实际上可能只接近每天150个，即每周1000个电池组。

If the average swapping station holds 20 packs and each vehicle swaps once per week, that's one extra pack for every 50 vehicles. That's a large number of battery packs at scale, but it's not a huge number proportional to Neo's vehicle fleet. If that were the whole story, I'd say Neo's battery pack inventory was diverting batteries that could be used elsewhere, but there is more to the story.
如果每个换电站平均容纳20个电池包，并且每辆车每周换一次，那么每50辆车就会多一个电池包。就规模而言，这是很多电池包，但相对于Neo的车队规模而言，这并不是一个巨大的数字。如果这就是全部的故事，我会说Neo的电池包库存会分散可以用于其他用途的电池，但这不是全部的故事。

Neo's connecting their swapping stations to the grid and using them similar to the way that Tesla uses megapacks. The battery pack inventory can be used to buffer the grid when electricity prices are high and draw from the grid when electricity prices are low. That can occur during most of the week when the swapping station is underutilized. That is, Neo's battery pack inventory doesn't appear to be wasted.
Neo公司正在将他们的交换站连接到电网上，并使用它们类似于特斯拉使用Megapack的方式。电池库存可以用来在电力价格高时缓冲电网，并在电力价格低时从电网中提取电力。这在交换站利用不足的大部分时间内可能发生。也就是说，Neo公司的电池库存似乎没有被浪费。

In summary, let's review the key points of battery pack swapping versus charging. Although battery pack swapping has lower upfront costs, on a long-term basis, it can increase the cost of owning the vehicle by 50 to 100%.
总之，让我们回顾一下电池包更换与充电之间的关键点。尽管电池包更换具有较低的前期成本，但从长远来看，它可能会增加车辆的拥有成本50%至100%不等。

With regards to throughput, Neo's swapping stations are on par with charging stations. However, they cost more than twice as much per unit of throughput, but they come with other drawbacks as well. They represent a single point of failure, and because they have so many moving parts, they're more likely to fail and more expensive to fix. Plus, any expansion in throughput requires a corresponding increase in battery pack capacity.
关于吞吐量，Neo的交换站和充电站一样。但是，它们的单位吞吐量成本是充电站的两倍以上，并且还有其他缺点。它们代表了单点故障，并且由于它们有很多运动部件，它们更容易出现故障，修复也更昂贵。此外，任何吞吐量的扩展都需要相应增加电池组容量。

That's as opposed to Tesla charging stations, which can support higher vehicle throughputs with no change to the infrastructure, and over the past five years have achieved an average uptime of 99.9%. Beyond all that, the most serious drawback of battery pack swapping for me is that Neo has locked themselves into a pack design that could seriously stifle innovation both at the pack level and, in terms of their ability to move into new vehicle classes.
这是与特斯拉充电站相反的，特斯拉充电站能够支持更高的车辆通行量，而无需改变基础设施，并且在过去五年中平均运行时间达到了99.9%。此外，对我来说，电池更换的最严重缺点是Neo已经锁定了一个电池组设计，这可能会严重扼杀电池组的创新能力，并且无法移动到新的车辆类别。

That's because any new pack will require expanded inventory at their existing swapping stations, which appear to have limited capacity for that inventory. The sole advantage of pack swapping for most people in most use cases appears to be that it's faster than charging, but that advantage will decrease over time.
这是因为任何新的电池组都需要扩大其现有换电站的库存容量，而这些站点的库存容量似乎有限。对于大多数人在大多数使用情况下，电池组更换的唯一优势似乎是它比充电更快，但这种优势随着时间的推移会减小。

Charging of course isn't perfect either. Besides slower charging speeds, there's a potential for large repair bills after the warranty runs out, but that risk is low and can be accommodated for with financial planning. Battery degradation is also often listed as a drawback for owning the vehicle and the battery pack instead of renting the battery pack, but that appears to fall apart with some analysis.
充电当然也不完美。除了充电速度较慢外，还存在在保修期过后可能出现的高额维修账单的风险，但这种风险很低，可以通过财务规划进行适当的准备。据称，拥有车辆和电池组而不是租用电池组的劣势之一是电池降解，但这似乎在一些分析中是站不住脚的。

Neo software locks a good chunk of their battery packs to reduce degradation because their battery packs have a brutal commercial service life. So renting a Neo battery pack is like using a battery pack that's already seen a decade or two of degradation. That's compounded by the fact that Neo vehicles are much less efficient than their peers.
"Neo软件锁定了他们的大部分电池组以减少降解，因为他们的电池组具有残酷的商业使用寿命。因此，租用Neo电池组就像使用一种已经经历了十年或二十年的降解的电池组。而这又加剧了Neo车辆远不如同类车辆高效的事实。" 意思是Neo公司会对自己的电池组进行限制来减少降解，因为这些电池组的商业使用寿命很短，所以租用Neo电池组的话，相当于使用已经降解很多年的电池组，再加上Neo车辆本身的功率效率不高，所以对使用者不太友好。

So who is Neo targeting with their battery swapping technology? To me, it appears to be five groups. First, people who live in highly urban environments that have no access to parking and charging at any point during the week, like parking garages, malls, and grocery stores. Second, people that are willing to pay for it as a luxury that differentiates their experience from other EV buyers. Third, first time EV buyers that don't realize how long battery packs last and how reliable they are are worried about the time it takes to charge an EV compared to a gas station and haven't done the math on what battery pack swapping as a feature will cost them.
那么Neo的电池更换技术是针对哪些人群的呢？我认为主要有五类。第一类是居住在高度城市化的环境中，在整个星期内都没有停车和充电的地方，例如停车场、购物中心和杂货店。第二类是愿意支付额外费用，将其视为与其他电动汽车买家不同的奢侈品的人。第三类是首次购买电动汽车的买家，他们不知道电池组可以使用多久以及其可靠性，担心充电时间比加油站长，并没有计算过作为一种功能的电池更换将花费他们多少。

These customers may feel like they're getting a great deal because they're reducing their upfront costs, but haven't considered what it means in the long term. Fourth, people who drive more than about 50,000 miles per year and can take advantage of the potential loophole in Neo's rental agreement, which as far as I can tell doesn't place a limit on the number of pack swaps a vehicle can do. Fifth, people who are good at investing and can afford to buy the battery pack outright. These customers can rent the battery pack and invest the upfront costs instead of buying the battery pack and potentially come out ahead financially.
这些客户可能感觉他们正在得到一笔好买卖，因为他们减少了他们的前期成本，但他们没有考虑长期意义。第四，每年行驶超过50,000英里并可以利用Neo租赁协议中的潜在漏洞的人，据我所知，该协议并没有限制车辆可以进行多少次电池更换。第五，擅长投资并能够负担得起直接购买电池组的人。这些客户可以租用电池组并投资前期成本，而不是购买电池组，可能在经济上占得先机。

Overall, I don't have anything against pack swapping. There are use cases where pack swapping could be an excellent idea and I've listed those on screen. But in my view for passenger vehicles, it's really a niche use case, not the ideal use case. If you enjoyed this video, please consider supporting the channel by using the links in the description. A special thanks to my YouTube members, Twitter subscribers, and all the patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all your support and thanks for tuning in.
总体而言，我并不反对包交换。在某些情况下，包交换可能是一个绝佳的主意，我已经在屏幕上列出了那些情况。但在我看来，对于乘用车而言，这只是一种小众的用例，而不是理想的用例。如果您喜欢这个视频，请考虑使用描述中的链接来支持本频道。特别感谢我的YouTube会员、Twitter订阅者和所有在制作名单上列出的赞助人。我感谢所有您们的支持，感谢收看。