Tesla Semi Ramp Delayed, Musk Comments on Charging, Toyota Hopes We Forgot

Hey everybody Rob Merritt here and today we are talking about new comments from Elon Musk on the Tesla Semi and Tesla's production targets, also on Tesla's decision to open up the supercharging network, new sales data out of China, updates on hardware 4 and more.

大家好，我是罗布·梅里特，今天我们要谈论埃隆·马斯克对特斯拉卡车和特斯拉生产目标的新评论，以及特斯拉决定开放超级充电网络，中国新的销售数据，硬件 4 的更新等等。

First thing though, Tesla stock strength and street continues finishing up about 3.5% to day to close at $258.71 while the NASDAQ was up just 8-10% of a percent, meaning the record run for positive days for Tesla stock now extends to 13.

首先，特斯拉股票的强劲表现在道路上持续增长，今日涨幅约为3.5％，收于258.71美元。而纳斯达克只有微不足道的0.8-1.0％的涨幅，这意味着特斯拉股票正创造连续13个积极交易日的纪录。

And today we've made it through the first major economic report of the week the Consumer Price Index or CPI report, largely coming in line with expectations.

今天，我们已经度过了本周的第一个重要经济报告——消费者价格指数报告（CPI报告），其大体符合预期。

The headline number or the total consumer price index looks the best here that came in at a 4% increase year over year, that's the lowest in two years, but was still up for 10% of a month, which is about double the rate that you want to see it increasing at.

标题数字或总消费者价格指数在这里看起来最好，同比增长了4%，这是两年来最低的，但仍然增长了10%的一个月，这是你想看到它增长的速度的大约两倍。

And if we look at core, so excluding food and energy which can be a bit more volatile and energy drove the total index down pretty significantly this month, so looking at core, that was up 5.3% year over year, so still decline from where we've been but not declining all that rapidly, and core was also up for 10% of a month over month, so a little bit more than double where you'd want it to be to annualize out to 2%.

如果我们看核心指标（排除更加波动的食品和能源部分），本月能源驱动总指标下降得相当显著。所以，从核心指标看，同比上涨了5.3%，虽然相对于之前有所下降，但下降速度不算太快。月环比来看，核心指标上涨了10%，比达到2%年化增长率的水平要高出一倍多。

And it's been pretty locked in at that level, 5 out of the last 6 months, coming in at 0.4% month over month, the 6th month, that was up half a percent, so good to see things coming down, but as far as the CPI report at least is concerned, inflation still looking pretty sticky, but it's just the CPI report, there are other measures, while the Producer Price Index report tomorrow morning, and then tomorrow afternoon, a couple hours before market close, of course we'll have the FOMC statement and interest rate decision followed by the press conference from Jerome Powell.

过去六个月中，物价水平一直停留在0.4％的水平上，其中有5个月持续不变，第6个月有所上升，上涨了0.5％。我们看到物价有所下降，但就CPI报告而言，通货膨胀仍然看起来相当困难。但这只是CPI报告，还有其他措施。明天早上会发布生产价格指数报告，下午收市前几个小时，当然我们将会有FOMC声明和利率决定，随后是Jerome Powell的新闻发布会。

Expectations for a pause at least at this meeting did increase a little bit from yesterday, it was about 80% yesterday, now about 90% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, and the aggregate increase by the July meeting expectations for that went down a little bit as well.

昨天对于此次会议至少暂停的预期略微增加了一些，昨天约为80%，现在根据CME Group FedWatch工具大约为90%，而到7月份的会议预期总体上稍微降低了一些。 意思是说，昨天人们对于此次会议是否会暂停加息的预期有所提高，预计有80%的人认为会暂停，而今天这个预期上升到了90%左右；而整体来看，到7月份的会议，预期有所下降。

So plenty more macro news to come tomorrow, but for now let's move on to some new data out of China, we've got updated insured vehicle numbers for the week of June 5th to June 11th, so 10th week of the quarter, we've got about three weeks left, this quarter's going pretty quick, but a really, really strong week here for Tesla 16,400 insured vehicles, that is the third highest week over the last three quarters.

明天还有许多宏观新闻要发布，但现在我们来看一下中国的一些新数据。我们获得了6月5日至6月11日所保车辆数量的更新数据，这是本季度的第10周，还有大约三周时间，这个季度过得很快，但对于特斯拉来说，这是一个真正非常强劲的一周，保险覆盖的汽车总数达到了16,400辆，这是过去三个季度中第三高的一周。

That puts the total through the first 10 weeks of Q2 at 111,000 quarter to date, at the same points in a quarter in Q4, Tesla was at about 97,500 and in Q1 about 88,000, remember Q1 facing Chinese New Year early in the quarter, but Tesla so far pacing well ahead of those last two quarters.

这使得第二季度前10周的总销量达到了111,000辆，而在Q4的同一季度，在同等时间点，特斯拉的销量大约为97,500辆，而在Q1则为88,000辆。请记住，Q1早在季初就面临了中国春节的影响，但特斯拉目前的销售速度遥遥领先于前两个季度。

For Tesla to hit a record this quarter, we're looking at about 26,000 or so needed over the following three weeks, the last three weeks of the quarter, so only about 9,000 a week, which looks pretty achievable at this point, remember we might run into some supply issues for the Model 3 regarding Project Highland if there is some significant downtime there, which does seem to be the case, so that could start impacting these numbers, especially as we get to that other quarter, but that record still does look to be within reach, so I'm very happy with this number, I think it's a great number for Tesla, and hopefully we see this strength continue over the last few weeks of the quarter.

为了使特斯拉在这个季度创纪录，我们需要在接下来的三周内达到大约26,000辆的销量，每周仅需要约9,000辆，这看起来相当可行。但要记住，如果Model 3的Project Highland出现了一些重大停机时间，我们可能会遇到一些供应问题，这似乎是有可能发生的，这可能会开始影响这些数字，尤其是在到达另一个季度时。但那个纪录看起来仍然是可以实现的，所以我对这个数字非常满意，我认为这对特斯拉来说是一个伟大的数字，希望我们在这个季度的最后几周能够继续保持这种强劲的势头。

Alright next we've got a bit of an update on Tesla's hardware 4, not a huge update here because we've kind of known about this, we had some other confirmation, but green the only, he's gotten his hands on a Model S or X vehicle with hardware 4, he is also confirmed as we'd heard from someone else that the radar is present in this vehicle, so this is the new high definition radar that we've talked about quite a few times, no confirmation if this is on Model Y yet, as we've started to hear some reports of Model Y having hardware for, so we'll continue to keep an eye out for that, outside of that not a lot of other details here yet from green, I'm hopeful that as he has more time with the vehicle there will be some other insight that he can share, I think right now the big question is on the camera suite, since we've had some leaks and other information suggest that maybe there are going to be additional cameras added later on, so my hope is that he can get a little bit better of an understanding of what the situation is exactly there, but we'll see.

接下来我们更新一下特斯拉的硬件4，这并不是一个重大更新，因为我们已经知道了一些情况，但有些方面得到了证实。 Green只是买到了一辆Model S或X的车辆，并且也已确认了雷达的存在，这是我们多次谈论过的新高清雷达。目前我们还没有确认Model Y上是否有这个功能，因为我们听说Model Y有硬件4。除此之外，Green没有提供其他细节。我希望随着他更多时间与车辆接触，他能分享一些其他的见解。我认为现在最大的问题在于相机套件，因为我们有一些泄漏和其他信息表明可能会在后期增加更多的摄像头，所以我的希望是他可以更好地了解到那里的准确情况，但我们要继续观察。

Alright next up we've got a couple of new comments from Elon Musk who in Austin today appeared at the Edison Electric Institute Conference, unfortunately I haven't been able to find a full recording of this yet, if anyone has that please pass that along, so we're kind of going off second or third hand reports here, but we've got a couple of those first from the Wall Street Journal, they are reporting that Elon during this discussion said that he doesn't expect the company to begin producing the Tesla Semi in larger volumes until the end of next year and apparently cited battery supply constraints, so it's not clear exactly if that's a general battery supply constraint, Tesla's recent comments have suggested that they're a little bit less constrained on that front at least for the moment, or if that is more of a 4680 battery supply constraint specifically, which is obviously in much tighter supply right now. Tesla has said that the advancements for the 4680 that they talked about at Battery Day aren't necessarily needed to accomplish the metrics for the semi, but obviously Tesla is juggling a lot of different things with the battery supply chain especially with the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act, which we already know has changed some plans and might change how Tesla is deciding to allocate batteries, which could push one part of the business that wasn't presumed to be battery constrained into a constraint, so unfortunately not a whole lot of detail in this report, and it also says that Elon did not specify what he means by higher volumes of production, my first guess would be that they're just kind of setting the ramp back a little bit, which isn't too surprising given that we just had those announcements about Giganovata and Tesla's got to really get that built up, and obviously that's going to take some time.

下一个话题是来自埃隆·马斯克的一些新评论，他今天在奥斯汀出席了爱迪生电气研究所的会议。不幸的是，我还没有找到完整的录像，如果有人有，请分享一下。因此，我们现在只能从二手或三手报道中得到一些情况。根据《华尔街日报》的报道，他在会议期间表示，他不认为公司将开始大规模生产特斯拉半挂车直到明年底，并且似乎是因为电池供应限制的问题。目前还不清楚这是否是普遍的电池供应限制。特斯拉最近的评论表明，他们在这方面的限制至少目前来说相对较少，或者这是否更具体地是指4680电池供应限制，显然现在这种情况紧张得多。特斯拉表示，他们在电池日谈到的4680电池的进展并不一定是半挂车指标的必需品，但是显然，特斯拉在电池供应链方面正面临很多不同的问题，尤其是在推出通货膨胀减缓法案之后。我们已经知道，这已经改变了一些计划，可能会改变特斯拉决定分配电池的方式，这可能会使那些本来不预计受到电池限制的业务部门受到限制。不幸的是，这份报告中没有太多的细节，而且它还说埃隆并没有明确说明他所说的“生产规模更高”是什么意思。我的第一个猜测是他们只是将半挂车的生产计划推迟了一点点，这并不令人惊讶，因为我们刚刚宣布了盖伊高瓦塔项目的消息，并且特斯拉必须真正地将其建立起来，而这显然需要一些时间。

Of course, I'm sure we all remember Elon's previous comments about the volume targets for the semi on the Q3 2022 earnings call, Elon said quote, as I think everyone knows at this point, it takes about a year to ramp up production, so we expect to see significant, we're tentatively aiming for 50,000 units in 2024 for Tesla's semi in North America, and obviously will expand beyond North America end quote. So most people interpret that to be a target of 50,000 units actually produced in the fiscal year of 2024, with the words he said it's a fair interpretation, but Elon is usually talking about production rates, so I've kind of always interpreted it as a production rate target. Certainly my model has a much lower number in there for next year, but even then I'll probably have to adjust that downward based on whatever is being delayed here.

当然，我相信我们都还记得埃隆在2022年第三季度收益电话中有关半挂车的销售目标的评论。埃隆说：众所周知，要推广生产需要大约一年的时间，因此我们预计在2024年将在北美地区生产50,000辆特斯拉半挂车，在北美地区之外的销售也将逐步扩大。因此，大多数人将其解释为2024财年实际生产50,000辆半挂车的目标。尽管埃隆说的话是可以理解成这个意思的，但他通常谈论的是生产率，因此我一直将其解释为生产率目标。当然，我的模型中明年的数字要低得多，但即使如此，我也可能需要根据被延迟的情况将其下调。

Now the other comment that Elon made is apparently regarding the decision to open up superchargers. Again here we're limited on not having the exact quote, the context, the intonation, but according to post on Twitter, Elon said that opening up the supercharger network to other OEMs quote probably isn't good for business, but it was the morally right thing to do to accelerate sustainable transportation end quote. So of course we've talked a lot about this over the last few days, I think as Elon wants others to adopt this standard, he's gonna be you know, obviously careful about saying that this gives Tesla some huge advantage over those competitors that he's trying to get on board, and I do think that he thinks that's the right thing for the mission, I think a lot of us would agree with that, and to an extent there's probably a degree of inevitability of these being opened up whether it's by regulation or Tesla deciding that it can be good for business, I think it ultimately comes down to how things end up being structured, and we don't have a lot of those details yet. Now obviously it diminishes the network effect that the supercharger network brings to Tesla when it was closed, but if Tesla can do enough other things to compensate for that, which obviously they are striving to do, then this would likely result in being a win for the business, there's just a couple of contingencies that are yet to shake out. It's definitely fascinating to watch that happen.

目前，埃隆所说的另一个评论显然是关于对其他汽车制造商开放超级充电站的决定。不过，我们现在无法得知确切的言论、背景和语调，但根据 Twitter 上发布的一篇文章，埃隆表示，让其他制造商进入超级充电站网络“可能不利于业务，但这是为加速可持续交通而做出的道义正确的决定”。因此，我们在过去的几天里已经讨论了很多关于这个问题，我认为埃隆希望其他人采用这种标准，他会非常小心地说这并不会使得特斯拉在与竞争对手争取合作时占据巨大的优势。但我认为他认为这对于实现使命是正确的事情，很多人也会赞同这一观点。可能无论是因为监管规定还是因为特斯拉认为这有利于业务，这些超级充电站最终会被打开，我认为这最终取决于事情的结构如何，我们现在还没有太多细节。显然，当超级充电站是关闭的，这种网络效应会降低，但如果特斯拉可以做足其他的补偿措施，显然他们正在努力做这些事情，那么这很可能会成为业务上的胜利，只是还有一些细节有待实现。看到这个过程的发展确实很有意思。

Now speaking of this charging situation, we do have new comments from Stellantis, we had joked last week about how maybe we'd have a Twitter space from then this week, not yet, but we do have a comment. Stellantis has told Reuters that quote, at this time we continue to evaluate the NACS standard and look forward to discussing more in the future, end quote. So a little bit of a non-statement, but it does at least show that this is under consideration, under discussion, with in Stellantis, which of course it is, they definitely seem like they would be in a position to be the next Dominata fall as sort of the other major American automaker, although obviously that's increasingly murky these days, but I assume they'll jump on board at some point and then it'll be really interesting to see what other foreign manufacturers do, which will be the first of those, if any, to do the same. That seems like it would kind of be the last wall to fall before this really is a standard.

说到这个充电情况，我们现在有来自斯泰兰蒂斯的新评论。我们上周开玩笑说，也许从这周开始我们会有Twitter空间，但现在还没有，不过他们给路透社发表了一份声明。斯泰兰蒂斯表示：“目前我们继续评估NACS标准，并期待未来进一步讨论。”这听起来有些模糊，但至少表明这个问题正在斯泰兰蒂斯内部被考虑和讨论，这当然是应该的。他们显然会成为另一个主要美国汽车制造商，虽然现在的情况越来越模糊，但我认为他们最终会支持这个标准。那么其他外国汽车制造商会怎么做呢？谁会成为第一个支持这个标准的制造商呢？这似乎是这个标准形成前的最后一道墙。

Alright next we've got a couple updates from other automakers first from Toyota, they head into their annual meeting and ahead of that meeting they announced some plans I guess on their EV strategy. The couple of big headlines from this is that they have said that their next generation battery electric vehicle to be introduced in 2026 will have a cruising range of 1000 kilometers or about 620 miles. Alright sounds good, but also why isn't Toyota the one that is making the case that all of these batteries that are being put into EVs can be used better across more plug-in hybrid EVs? They're just going to do the exact opposite and shove enough batteries to get 620 miles a range into one? Alright it sounds like they really believe in what they were saying before. And then the other big announcement is that they have discovered a technological breakthrough in solid state batteries and expect to commercialize those in about five years. Hmm sounds kind of familiar, let's go back to July 25th of 2017 reading this Wall Street Journal headline that says Toyota nears technological breakthrough in its electric car batteries.

好的，接下来我们有一些来自其他汽车制造商的更新，首先是来自丰田的消息。他们即将召开年度会议，会前他们宣布了一些关于他们的电动车战略计划。其中的两个大标题是，他们表示将在2026年推出下一代电池电动车，巡航里程可以达到1000公里或者大约620英里。听起来不错，但是为什么丰田不应该是那个提出将所有这些电池放入更多的插电式混合动力电动车中使用的人？他们只是要把足够的电池塞进去，让一辆车的续航里程可以达到620英里吗？听起来他们真的相信自己之前所说的话。另一个重要的公告是，他们已经从固态电池方面取得了技术突破，并计划在约五年内实现商业化。嗯，听起来有些熟悉，让我们回到2017年7月25日，《华尔街日报》 的标题，丰田接近在其电动车电池方面取得技术突破。

Literally the exact same words and at that point they said that they were working on production engineering for these batteries and expected to start selling cars with the new batteries by the early 2020s. Such a coincidence that that's about five years out from that point in time. Don't worry though I'm sure at this point it's totally a huge breakthrough and it's totally going to be cost and volume competitive and will somehow just fault Toyota right to the very top of the EV market suddenly alleviating all of these constraints that they've talked about for what a decade now. We gotta move on because it's just it's too frustrating.

字面上说的是完全相同的话，而当时他们表示正在研发这些电池的生产工程，并期望在2020年初开始销售使用新电池的汽车。与此同时，这恰好是从那个时间点开始的五年左右。不过不要担心，我相信现在这已经是一个巨大的突破，完全可以在成本和量产方面更具竞争力，并会让丰田公司成为电动汽车市场中扮演重要角色，从而消除他们已经谈论了一个十年的约束。我们必须继续前进，因为这太令人沮丧了。

As for things that actually exist we've got an update from Polestar on the Polestar 2. They've announced a starting price of $49,900 in the US and say that customers can begin taking deliveries as early as summer 2023. They've also confirmed that the Polestar 2 will be eligible for the full $7,500 tax credit for both trims of the vehicle. There is a long range dual motor with a 78kWh battery, 276 miles of EPA range and a long range single motor with an 82kWh battery and 320 miles range.

关于真实存在的事情，我们从 Polestar 收到了 Polestar 2 的最新消息。他们宣布 Polestar 2 在美国的起售价为 $49,900，并表示客户可以在 2023 年夏季开始交付。他们还确认 Polestar 2 将符合车辆的两个版本均可获得完整的 $7,500 税收抵免。车型分为长续航版双电机，搭载 78kWh 电池，EPA 续航里程为 276 英里；和长续航版单电机，搭载 82kWh 电池，续航里程为 320 英里。

Next we've got a quick update from Waymo their co-CEO has announced that they have expanded their coverage for 1000 plus public riders in San Francisco to the entirety of San Francisco previously I think Chinatown Fisherman's Wharf Union Square was a little bit partitioned off so it looks like that has been added and now all of San Francisco covered 24-7. Alright last couple of things quick update on Starship Elon was asked on Twitter when the next launch would be and he said 6-8 weeks so that would put things right around early August definitely a lot earlier than a lot of people would guess right after the first orbital test flight so another possibly really exciting event to keep an eye on for the calendar for Q3. And then lastly I briefly yesterday mentioned most people probably know my thoughts on battery swapping for those that don't I got a couple of questions on that in the comments I've talked about it on a few occasions but probably most succinctly in an episode where I was talking about Neo compared to Tesla so I'll link to that in the description and it'll be time stamped to the part where I'm giving my thoughts on battery swapping if you are curious otherwise that'll wrap it up for today as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on twitter at tesselpodcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday June 14th episode of Tesla David thank you.

接下来，我们有Waymo的快速更新，他们的联合首席执行官宣布，他们已将覆盖范围从旧金山1000多名公共乘客扩大到整个旧金山。之前，我想，唐人街、捕鱼人码头和联合广场都有一小部分区域被分割出来了，所以现在似乎已经添加了整个旧金山24小时覆盖。好了，最后几件事情，来自Starship的快速更新：埃隆被问到下一次发射将在何时，他在推特上回答说需要6-8周，所以时间应该就在8月初左右，这肯定比很多人的猜测时间要早得多，可能会是下一件非常令人兴奋的事件，可以在Q3的日历上关注一下。最后一件是昨天简要提到的，大多数人可能都知道我对换电池有何看法，如果不知道的话，我在评论栏中回答了一些问题，我在一些场合谈到了它，但或许最简洁的是我在一集Neo与Tesla的节目中，我将其链接在描述中，并会给其时间戳，以便你们查看。否则，今天的更新就到这里为止，感谢您的聆听，确保您已订阅并开启通知。您还可以在Twitter上找到我@tesselpodcast，我们将在明天6月14日星期三再次见面。感谢。