Why (Almost) Nobody Invests in Japan - VisualPolitik EN - YouTube
发布时间 2022-05-28 16:00:00 来源
中英文字稿 
Both in the economic and political arena, Japan is coming back into fashion. One example? Since he arrived in the Oval Office, Joe Biden has made it clear that Japan remains the linchpin of US security policy in Asia.
在经济和政治领域，日本正在回归流行。一个例子是什么？自从他进入椭圆形办公室以来，乔·拜登已经明确表示，日本仍然是美国在亚洲安全政策中的关键。
Proof of this is that both Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Japan on their first international trip, and not only that. The Japanese Prime Minister at the time was the first foreign guest Biden received as president at the White House. Quite a statement of intent.
这一点的证据是，国务卿安东尼·布林肯和国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀都在他们的首次国际出访中访问了日本，而且不仅如此。当时的日本首相是拜登就任总统后在白宫接待的第一位外国客人。这是一种明确的意图表达。
And of course, it's not just about the relationship between Tokyo and Washington. Increasing economic competition from China is causing the Japanese government to step up its game. There is, for example, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the CPTPP, one of the largest free trade and economic integration agreements in the world that is being led by none other than Japan.
当然，这不仅涉及东京和华盛顿之间的关系。来自中国的经济竞争日益加剧，推动日本政府提高竞争力。例如，日本正在领导世界上最大的自由贸易和经济一体化协议之一——《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（简称CPTPP）。
A country that, according to public opinion polls, is the most trusted power in South East Asia, the world's fastest growing economic region. But we're not only talking about the political field. The truth is that the Japan is also becoming fashionable economically.
据公共舆论调查显示，这个国家是东南亚最受信任的大国，也是全球增长最快的经济区域。但我们不仅仅谈论政治领域。事实是，日本也在经济上变得时尚。
Despite all its limitations, such as eternal crises, the demographic decline, or the weakness of the yen, the land of the rising sun, or rather, Japanese companies, are reinventing themselves. Starting in the late 1990s, when 1st South Korean and Taiwanese companies and then Chinese ones began to compete head-to-head with many Japanese manufacturers, they were gradually forced to produce goods that were more difficult to make and imitate.
尽管日本面临永久性危机、人口下降和日元疲软等很多限制，但作为“旭日之国”的日本企业正不断重塑自我。自20世纪90年代末，韩国和台湾企业率先开始并逐渐被中国企业所追赶之后，日本制造商逐渐被迫生产更难生产和仿制的商品。
In other words, move up the value chain. And that's exactly what they did. Many Japanese companies have transformed themselves into suppliers of high-tech, highly innovative materials and components that are indispensable in the global production chain.
换句话说，升级价值链。这正是他们所做的。许多日本公司已经转变为高科技、高度创新的材料和零部件供应商，这些材料和零部件在全球生产链中是不可或缺的。
To give you an idea, although for us and consumers it may be somewhat invisible, Japanese companies control more than 50% of the market share in many of the advanced components and supplies of high-tech industry, from specialty glass to semiconductor manufacturing equipment to complex chemicals, if you use high-tech products, Japan probably has a lot to do with it.
让您了解一下，虽然对我们和消费者来说可能不太明显，但是日本公司在很多高科技行业的先进零部件和供应方面掌控了超过50%的市场份额，从特种玻璃到半导体制造设备再到复杂化学品，如果您使用高科技产品，很可能与日本有很大关系。
In many ways, this explains how, since 2009, Japan's real per capita growth has grown almost at the level of the United States and has driven above countries like France or the United Kingdom. Yeah, that's right. Japan's GDP is barely growing, but we have to take into account that its population, particularly that of working age, has been shrinking for years.
从很多方面来看，这解释了为什么自2009年以来，日本的实际人均增长率几乎与美国持平，并超过了法国或英国等国家。没错，日本的GDP几乎没有增长，但我们必须考虑到它的人口，特别是工作年龄的人口，多年来一直在减少。
In other words, with a lower population, they produce more. In per capita terms, Japan's economic performance over the last decade has been reasonably good. And, if we also take into account that it is still the third largest consumer market in the world after the United States and China, we can get an idea of why Japan's economy is once again attracting the attention of multinationals.
换句话说，他们人口较少，却能生产更多。从人均角度来看，日本过去十年的经济表现相当不错。如果我们还考虑到它仍然是继美国和中国之后全球第三大消费市场，我们就能明白为什么日本经济再次引起跨国公司的关注了。
However, hold on just a minute, because something is not adding up. Despite all its attractions, the truth is that international companies barely invest in Japan. Check this out.
然而，请稍等一下，因为有些事情不太对劲。尽管日本有许多吸引人的特点，但事实是国际公司几乎不太在日本投资。看看这个。
But having said that, let's move on. Why is nobody investing in Japan? Well, to say that nobody invests in Japan is obviously a bit of an exaggeration. But surely, you won't think it's such an exaggeration if I tell you that the United Nation ranks Japan second to last in the world only to North Korea in terms of foreign direct investment received as the percentage of GDP.
“说了这么多，我们继续说下去吧。为什么没有人投资日本呢？当然，说没有人在日本投资是有点夸张的。但是，如果我告诉你，根据联合国的统计数据，日本只仅次于朝鲜，排名倒数第二，是以国内生产总值为基础的外国直接投资的流入量，那么你肯定会认为这个说法并不夸张了。”
This is a huge anomaly. The bottom line is that FDI accounts for just over 4% of Japan's GDP. To give you an idea, the average for developed countries is 44%. Normally countries that want to boost their economic growth would encourage foreign companies to locate their open new facilities, such as factories or new offices to buy local companies or invest in the country's public or private bonds.
这是一个巨大的反常现象。在日本国内，外国直接投资仅占国内生产总值的4%左右，相比之下，发达国家的平均水平为44%。一般情况下，想要提高经济增长的国家会鼓励外企进驻、新建生产设施（如工厂或办公室）、收购当地企业或者投资该国的公共或私人债券。
However, this is not the case in Japan, which remains completely disconnected from foreign direct investment flows. But does that mean it's forbidden to make a productive investment in the land of the rising sun? Oh, in fact, Japan's politicians have been talking about encouraging foreign investors for almost 20 years. And in a way, they have done just that.
然而，在日本，与外国直接投资的流动完全脱钩，这种情况并不适用。但这是否意味着在日本进行富有成效的投资是被禁止的呢？实际上，日本的政治家们已经谈论鼓励外国投资者近20年。而且，在某种程度上，他们确实正在这样做。
When Koyzumi took office's Prime Minister in 2001, FDI in the country was a mere 1.2% of GDP, prompting the government to set a target of 5% by 2011. At first, things went smoothly. And the percentage of foreign investment increased to 4% in 2008. Since then, however, things have remained stagnant.
当小泉纯一郎于2001年担任日本首相职务时，日本国内的外商直接投资占国内生产总值的比例仅为1.2%，这促使政府制定了到2011年将外商直接投资占比提高至5%的目标。最初，情况进展顺利，外商直接投资占比在2008年增至4%。然而，自那时起，情况一直没有改善。
So the question is, what is the reason for this anomaly? Why does Japan not attract productive investment? Why does nobody, or almost nobody, want to invest in this country? How is it possible that in this race, the only country the land of the rising sun beats is North Korea?
那么问题就是，这种异常的原因是什么？为什么日本没有吸引到富有成效的投资？为什么没有人或几乎没有人想在这个国家投资？在这场竞赛中，唯一被太阳升起的国家击败的是朝鲜？
Well, VisualPolitik fans, the key seems to lie in corporate operations. Let me explain. In a typical developed country, up to 80% of FDI inflows take the form of corporate mergers and acquisitions. However, that is not the case in Japan. It seems to be a legacy of the immediate post-World War II era.
嗨，VisualPolitik的粉丝们，关键似乎在于企业运营。让我来解释一下。在一个典型的发达国家，FDI（外国直接投资）流入的高达80％会采取企业合并和收购的形式。但是在日本不是这样的。这似乎是二战后立即的遗留问题。
At that time, Tokyo restricted FDI to prevent foreign companies from taking control of the market. Years later, when entry into the OECD forced the Japanese government to overturn these restrictions, Japanese policymakers divide countermeasures of sorts to make it more difficult for multinationals to buy Japanese companies.
当时，东京限制外国直接投资，以防外国公司控制市场。多年后，日本入会OECD迫使政府推翻限制，日本政策制定者采取了一些对策来使跨国公司更难购买日本公司。
A large part of these countermeasures had to do with the promotion of cross-shear holdings between companies and above all, with the return of a large conglomerate, the Karitsu. To give you an idea, today these conglomerates continue to exercise enormous control over the national economy.
这些对策中的大部分涉及促进公司间的交叉持股，尤其是涉及一个大型企业集团Karitsu的重返。为您提供一个想法，今天这些企业集团继续对国家经济行使极大的控制力。
The Karitsu control 26,000 parent companies, 56,000 subsidiaries and employ about 18 million people, almost a third of all Japanese employees. This is not even counting many companies that act as subcontractors and suppliers closely linked to these groups. The Toyota Group, for example, has some 1,000 subsidiaries and 40,000 suppliers, most of which are closely linked to this group.
Karitsu集团控制着26,000家母公司、56,000家子公司，并雇用了约1800万人，几乎占据着日本所有雇员数的三分之一。这还不算许多作为这些集团密切相关的分包商和供应商的公司。例如，丰田集团拥有约1,000家子公司和40,000家供应商，其中大部分都与该集团紧密相关。
In other words, in practice, they are not entirely independent. In this way, the Karitsu exercise such control over Japanese companies that they leave little room for foreign corporations to gain a foothold. It is something like a very closed ecosystem. The problem is that the ecosystem is so closed that in many fields, it is fueled enormous inbreeding that comes at the expense of productivity and change.
换言之，在实践中，它们并不完全独立。这样，Karitsu对日本企业进行了控制，以至于留给外国公司很少的立足之地。它类似于一个非常封闭的生态系统。问题在于这个生态系统太封闭了，在许多领域中，它培养了巨大的近亲繁殖，这是以生产力和变革为代价的。
For example, the digital transition in Japan lags far behind its counterpart countries. To make matters worse, despite its intentions, the government has introduced even more control mechanisms. For example, in 2020, it pushed through Parliament a change in the foreign exchange and foreign trade law to lower the threshold by which a corporate transaction requires government approval. From 10% of the shares, it dropped to around 1%.
例如，数字转型在日本远远落后于其他国家。更糟糕的是，尽管其意图，政府还引入了更多的控制机制。例如，在2020年，政府通过议会修改外汇和对外贸易法，将公司交易需要政府批准的门槛降低。从10%的股份下降到约1%。
The result is that buying a company in Japan can be an almost impossible mission. And that explains the very little FDI that enters the country in relative terms. However, this is something that could start to change very soon for three main reasons.
结果是在日本收购一家公司几乎是一项不可能的任务。这也解释了相对而言进入该国的外商直接投资非常少的原因。然而，这种情况可能很快因三个主要原因而发生改变。
Firstly, surveys are beginning to show greater social acceptance of foreigners taking control of local companies. This is something that is traditionally generated DREAD in the country. Secondly, demographic decline is forcing many small and medium-sized enterprises to close their as their owners retire and have no successors.
首先，调查显示外国人接管本地企业的社会接受度正在增加。这在该国传统上会引起恐慌。其次，人口下降正在迫使许多小型和中型企业关闭，因为它们的业主退休并没有继承人。
Among these lines in 2020, a report published by the FDI promotion council, a government advisory body, argued that foreign capital inflow could be the solution to this problem. We are talking about more than 600,000 profitable SMEs that might have to close within the next three years. There are 6 million jobs at risk.
在这些行业中，2020年外商投资促进委员会（一种政府咨询机构）发布的一份报告认为，外来资本流入可能是解决这个问题的方法。我们正在谈论的是将有超过60万盈利的中小企业在未来三年内可能不得不关闭。有600万个就业岗位面临风险。
And thirdly, plans to raise the economic growth and profitability of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and driving changes in the corporate governance policies of companies. We'll tell you about it in an upcoming video, so don't forget to subscribe to all of us here at VisualPolitik to stay in the loop.
第三，计划提高东京证券交易所的经济增长和盈利能力，并推动公司治理政策的改变。我们将在即将发布的视频中介绍，所以不要忘记订阅我们在VisualPolitik的所有内容，以保持信息畅通。
However, as we have mentioned on other occasions, this is not the only area where Japan's economy has become the odd one out in terms of economic globalisation.
然而，正如我们在其他场合所提到的，这并不是日本经济在全球化经济方面成为异类的唯一领域。
意思是：此处指日本经济在全球化的领域存在其他方面是与众不同的。
Check this out. A country that is also close to talent. In contrast to most developed countries, Japan has a fairly small immigrant population, barely 2% of the total. In the United States, for example, that figure exceeds 13%.
看看这个。日本是一个也接近人才的国家。与大多数发达国家不同，日本的移民人口相对较少，仅占总人口的约2%。例如，在美国，这个数字超过了13%。
Not only has this meant excluding a lot of talent, but is also contributed to deepening the demographic crisis the country is experiencing. Its population first began to decline in 2005, and it has been steadily shrinking since 2011, which is taking a major toll on the working age population.
这不仅意味着排除了大量人才，而且还加剧了该国正在经历的人口危机。该国的人口在2005年首次开始下降，自2011年以来一直稳步萎缩，这对劳动年龄人口造成了巨大影响。
For example, in 2019, more than 28% of the population was over the age of 65, and only about 60% of Japanese residents were between the ages of 15 and 64. This explains why this country suffers from one of the highest levels of labour shortages in all developed countries. According to the Japanese government itself, we are talking about a shortage of 6.5 million workers by 2030.
例如，在2019年，超过28％的人口年龄超过65岁，只有约60％的日本居民年龄在15至64岁之间。这就是为什么该国在所有发达国家中遭受劳动力短缺问题的最高水平之一。据日本政府自己的数据，到2030年这个国家将面临650万工人短缺的问题。
So far, some changes have already been introduced to encourage the arrival of foreign labour, but everything indicates that things will have to move faster in the future. And so, visual positive viewers, you can see that in some fields the Japanese economy is the most close to international flows, but that is about to undergo a huge transformation.
迄今为止，已经采取了一些改变来鼓励外国劳动力的到来，但一切表明未来的事情必须变得更快。因此，积极看待未来的人们可以看到，在某些领域，日本经济是最接近国际流动的，但即将经历巨大的转型。
The question is, will it be enough to balance all of the problems the country is facing? Will Japan become the new fashionable destination for multinationals? These are questions the only time it can answer.
问题是，这是否足以平衡这个国家面临的所有问题？日本会成为跨国公司的新潮流目的地吗？只有时间才能回答这些问题。
For now, leave us your thoughts below in the comments, and very importantly, if you have found this video that we have made in collaboration with our friends from Value School, don't forget to like it, and leave us your impressions in the comments.
暂时留下你的想法在下面的评论区，非常重要的是，如果你发现这个视频是我们与Value School合作制作的，请别忘了点赞，并在评论中留下你的印象。
All the best, and I'll see you next time.
祝你一切顺利，下次再见。