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E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more

发布时间 2023-06-03 05:43:49    来源

摘要

(0:00) Bestie intros + Vegas recap! (4:01) Sacks donation strategy, Biden's uncomfortable truth, mental acuity concerns, fantasy picks for president! (30:43) Debt ceiling agreement, US debt situation, is USD dominance in trouble? (1:11:34) Book banning follow-up (1:19:10) Nvidia going for a vertically integrated monopoly in AI hardware (1:26:31) Biden's fall, populism in both parties Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/us/politics/biden-public-appearances-media.html https://nypost.com/2023/04/26/biden-cheat-sheet-shows-he-had-advance-knowledge-of-journalists-question https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/jpmorgan-s-jamie-dimon-says-maybe-one-day-i-ll-serve-my-country https://twitter.com/billackman/status/1663959113703751720 https://apnews.com/article/debt-limit-biden-mccarthy-house-votes-9375cce9b7526b2d0a5728f8d4a18a0a https://apnews.com/article/debt-ceiling-deal-food-aid-student-loans-3c284b01d95f8e193bca8d873386400e https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/643-april-2023-market-update-on-bitcoin https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/exit-liquidity-3052309e6bfa https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/05/05/blog-us-dollar-share-of-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-instead-of-dollars-for-chinese-oil-sales-11647351541 https://www.barrons.com/news/china-brazil-strike-deal-to-ditch-dollar-for-trade-8ed4e799 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/does-chinas-role-in-saudi-iran-rapprochement-represent-a-new-order-.html https://www.barrons.com/articles/dollar-china-petro-yuan-saudi-b0b6e48f https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/brazil-takes-steps-to-transact-in-yuan-as-ties-with-china-grow https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-economy-fx/yuan-tops-euro-as-brazils-second-currency-in-foreign-reserves-idUSL1N3632DU https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/brics-draws-membership-requests-from-19-nations-before-summit https://pen.org/index-of-school-book-bans-2022 https://www.newsweek.com/kill-mockingbird-other-books-banned-california-schools-over-racism-concerns-1547241 https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/news/james-bond-ian-fleming-books-rewritten-b2289747.html https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/feb/20/roald-dahl-books-rewrites-criticism-language-altered https://twitter.com/mdcps/status/1661194749821218818 https://resources.nvidia.com/en-us-grace-cpu/nvidia-grace-hopper https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1664343681321541636 https://youtu.be/CwJaSa335mE #allin #tech #news

GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......

中英文字稿  

Free burger punchy now. Free burger. Punchy obviously punch drug salty free burger reminds me of a story for this weekend.
现在免费提供汉堡，口感强烈。免费提供汉堡。显然是强效药物口味的免费汉堡让我想起了这个周末的一个故事。

Okay, we're waiting in line to go to the Encore beach club to see Kigo. Ooh, and Kigo me and free burger at the back of the line. Everybody else has gotten through. All you guys are filtering into the booth. I go is tight everywhere. Can they say to take out your clothes?
好的，我们正在排队去Encore海滩俱乐部看Kigo。哦，还有Kigo请我和免费的汉堡在队伍后面。其他人都进去了。所有人都挤在展位里。他们能不能让我脱衣服啊？

So I put on my phone. That's all I have my key card. He takes out a phone is key card at a small bag of the salted, Victor salted pistachio. Oh, he tried. He will leave home without the. He has his back of pistachios and they're like, no food in the club.
所以我拿起了手机。那就是我唯一带着的门禁卡。他拿出一部手机和一张门禁卡，还有一小袋咸味开心果。哦，他试了试。他不能没有这些东西离开家。他背着一袋开心果，好像俱乐部里没有食物。

Guy says no food in the club. No. And he goes, what do you mean, no food? This is in a bag. It's like, it's just pistachios. Just pistachios. They get in an argument back and forth. Back and forth. He's like, I'm going to take a stand. This is outrageous. I said, free work. Come on. Let's just go.
这个人说俱乐部里不能吃东西。他说不行。然后他就问，你是什么意思？这只是一袋开心果而已。他们开始反复争吵。他说，我要采取立场。这太荒谬了。我说，别这样了，让我们走吧，这是免费的工作。

So we go inside. This is where he takes us in. And then he's like, can you believe it? They took my fucking pistachios. Like these are my pistachios. He's tilted. That's tilted easily. And then and then saw the way out. He's like, if I see that guy, he's pistachios. And I thought this is a fucking curb. You're enthusiasm skit right here. He saw the about the pistachios. This is something about the sothe pistachios. A guy was walking through the casino later eating the pistachios.
所以我们走进里面。这就是他带我们来到的地方。然后他说：“你们能相信吗？他们拿走了我的该死的开心果。这些是我的开心果。”他很生气。他很容易被激怒。然后，我们又看到了出路。他说：“如果我看到那个家伙，他就死定了。”我想：“这就像是《热情似火的好奇心》的一个段子。”他谈起了开心果的事情。这里涉及到一些关于开心果的话题。后来有个人拿着开心果走过赌场走廊。

I fell in love with free work this weekend. I had so much fun with this fucking. Oh my God. There he is. He's in the club. He's so he was he was living his best life in the club. Nick, show the bigger picture. Nick just zoom out so you can see. Oh, there I am. Yeah, I'm right next to him. There's me. Look at how huge my ass looks. God. That's a lot of that's a lot of S. That is a lot of show that. Look at that huge dumper. Wow. Isn't it incredible? And what's going on with those? Are you those underwear? Who's good as that? J kills?
我周末爱上了自由工作。这个东西真的太好玩了。哦天啊，他在俱乐部。他度过了他在俱乐部最美好的时光。尼克，把画面放大点。让镜头拉得更远，你就能看到我站在他旁边了。看看我的屁股有多大。太神奇了。还有那些内裤，是谁的？是J Kills的吗？

That's my job. But I think it's just the T-shirt. I think it's just the T-shirt. You obviously stopped the Azempuk. No, I'm still. I'm so sideways. I was 175. You put it right back on, didn't you? Nope. Nope. You stopped the Azempuk and it came right back.
这是我的工作。但我认为只是T恤衫的原因。你显然已经停止了Azempuk。不，我还在服用。我的体侧很严重。我曾经有175磅。你是不是立刻又增重了？没有。你停止了Azempuk，体重就又恢复了。

Vegas was so fun. I got to say, I got to shout out to those guys that run that Delilah joint. I think that's like the best new restaurant. That is a really great place. So right. A little loud. I wish it would just go like one notch lower on the volume for the old people's world. A good scene. Good bye. What you hit 50? Yeah.
在拉斯维加斯玩得太开心了。得说一声，必须要感谢那些经营Delilah餐厅的人。我认为那是最棒的新餐厅。真的非常好。稍微有点吵。我希望它的音量能再调低一点，适合老年人的世界。是个好餐厅，再见了。你已经五十岁了吗？是的。

All the clubs are two with us again on the all in podcast. The architect himself, crazy hair doesn't care. David Sacks. Friedberg is committing suicide in the bottom of a pool. Apparently, he just cannot take all the adulation and insight. That's a leaving Las Vegas scene. Exactly. That's you leaving Vegas down 150 times, which you could have given to DeSantis like Saks did.
在All In的播客中，我们再次与所有俱乐部合作。建筑师本人，疯狂的头发不在意，David Sacks。Friedberg正在一个游泳池的底部自杀。显然，他无法承受所有赞美和见解。这就是一个场景，就像电影《离开拉斯维加斯》中的情节一样。确切地说，这就是你不断地输掉150次，而你本可以像Saks一样把这些输掉的钱给DeSantis。

And hot off of his wonderful weekend, the afterglow of Vegas. Chamath polyhopper. We went to Vegas to play cards. It was a wonderful weekend. We had a great time. Everybody bonded. A lot of laughs were had. Wonderful time. Wonderful time. Wonderful time.
刚结束了一个美好的周末，并带着拉斯维加斯的余晖，这就是Chamath polyhopper。我们去了拉斯维加斯玩纸牌，度过了一个美妙的周末，大家都非常愉快，互相交流，笑声不断。这是一个美好的时光，无比美好。

I got into craps. I was never a craps guy, but I had one of those like. How great was Jay Kowling craps? Oh my god. I had a 40. I had a 40 die roll run. It was incredible. There's something about that game that is like super addicting to me.
我开始迷上了 Craps 游戏。我以前并不是 Craps 狂热者，但有一次经验改变了一切。我见识了 Jay Kowling 所玩的 Craps，简直太神奇了。我自己也体验了一次 40 次连续骰子点数的壮举，太惊人了！这个游戏的某种机制让我上瘾。

Oh, when you just go out of 40 die row. Oh, I think craps really is one of the best gambling games ever created. So exciting. It's so exciting. It's so exciting. It's so exciting. It's like hitting the hard ways and then the the feature bats. feature bats. The feature bats. The feature bats. Leaky bats.
哦，当你刚走出40号推子（指赌场中摆放骰子的位置）时，我觉得狂骰真的是有史以来最好的赌博游戏之一。太刺激了，就像打中难点然后获得彩池一样激动人心。彩池、彩池，还有获得高额奖励的“漏洞”游戏。

No, but when they hit, they're just so fun. When they hit, they just all the dopamine gets released and loved it. Ice-biked aces for the max bet. It was like, oh, I saw that. You put 500 on it. Yeah, they only let me bet 500, but I bet 31 to one on aces hit it. Table went crazy when that 15 dimes were pushed.
不，但当它们命中时，它们非常有趣。当它们输赢时，所有的多巴胺都会释放，我喜欢这种感觉。我在底注上下了最大赌注，赢了很高兴。这就像，哦，我看到了。你在上面下了五百美元的赌注。是的，他们只让我下五百美元的注，但我下了三十一对一的赌注，最后赢了。当赢了一万五千美元时，台子上的人都疯了。

I was speaking about pushing 150 dimes. It's actually been getting a lot of press for being the architect. I saw some stories. Let me ask you a question. Total fake news. All fake news. We know that everybody's emailing me to try to get answers about you. I just see you on this, but the press has been trying to cover your role architecting the Ron DeSantis president.
我正在谈论推动150个十分硬币的事情。这件事实际上已经因为它的设计者而受到很多关注。我看到了一些报道。让我问你一个问题，所有这些都是假新闻。全部都是假新闻。我们知道每个人都在给我发电子邮件尝试获取关于你的回答。我只看到你在这件事情上，但媒体一直试图报道你在建造Ron DeSantis总统方面所扮演的角色。

We talked about it last week. What's the color? We did. Well, the press wants to know what 150 dime skis is. They can look it up in the urban dictionary. I think that would be easier. But let me ask you a question about your giving strategy or your donation strategy. I noticed that you're donating to RFK for president and you're donating to Ron DeSantis. Are you donating to any other president and why are you betting both sides of the aisle? This is confusing to me.
上周我们已经谈过了。颜色是什么？是的。媒体想知道 150 美分的雪橇是什么意思，他们可以在城市词典中查找。我觉得那会更容易些。但我有一个关于你的捐赠策略的问题。我注意到你向 RFK 和 Ron DeSantis 捐款，你还向其他总统捐款吗？为什么你在赌注两边？这让我很困惑。

I thought you wanted one side to win. I mean, I've already explained this on previous pods. I don't know the answer. What's the? First way to understand my political giving is just to watch the all in pod. I always end up describing who I'm supporting and why and which causes on the pod first. Then I back it up. I put my money where my mouth is. There's no mystery. There's no like backroom deals going on. It's just me writing checks and supportive things I've almost always already talked about on the pod.
我认为你想要一方胜利。我的意思是，我在以前的播客中已经解释过这个问题了。我不知道答案是什么。第一种理解我政治捐赠的方法就是观看我的“全力以赴”播客。我总是在播客中先描述我支持谁、为什么支持以及支持哪些事业。然后我会用行动来支持自己的话。没有什么神秘的事情在后台进行。这只是我写支票并支持我在播客中几乎已经谈过的事情。

What about this question of betting both sides? You're betting for both teams in a basketball series. I don't understand that. Well, I've said that it's not competitive at this point. I've said that I would support RFK Jr. for the Democratic Party nomination and I support DeSantis on the Republican side because of contradiction. I guess if they both made it to the general, then I'd have a real dilemma. But let's face it, they're both underdogs and they're a lane.
这个问题是关于同时赌注双方的。在一场篮球系列赛中，你同时为两个团队下注。我不太明白这个做法。嗯，我已经说过，在这个阶段这并不具备竞争力。我已经说过我支持RFK Jr.竞选民主党提名，并支持DeSantis竞选共和党，在这两方的矛盾中，所以我赌了双方。如果他们两个都进入了总统选举，那么我将面临真正的难题。但让我们面对现实，他们俩都是局外人，都处于落后。

Okay. It'd be a high-class problem to have if it ended up being a DeSantis Kennedy race instead of a Biden Trump repeat. Well, I mean, I've played blackjack with you. You do play multiple hands at once. So I guess this does track. It's not enough action for you to just play one hand. I don't really see a contradiction there. Right now there's a Trump DeSantis race going on and there's a Biden Kennedy race going on.
好的。如果最终成为德桑蒂斯·肯尼迪与拜登·特朗普的重现，那将是一个高级问题。好吧，我是说我曾经和你一起打过二十一点。你总是同时玩多手。所以我想这很符合情况。你不能只玩一手，这对你来说不够刺激。我真的看不到其中的矛盾。目前正在进行一场特朗普-德桑蒂斯的竞赛和一场拜登-肯尼迪的竞赛。

Okay. Now you hold a lot of fun racers. Mr. Moth and I are actually doing an event for Bobby Kennedy soon in the next two weeks. God, let's go to you, Jamal. Well, I think it's important to just acknowledge an uncomfortable truth and I come at it from a person who's independent. I'm not registered Democrat or Republican, but I've donated millions of dollars to the Democrats in the last couple of cycles.
好的。现在你手上有很多有趣的竞赛者。莫斯先生和我将在接下来的两周内为博比·肯尼迪举办一次活动。上帝啊，让我们听听你的看法，贾迈勒。我认为重要的是要承认一个不舒服的真相，而我是一个独立的人。我没有注册民主党或共和党，但在过去几个选举周期中，我已向民主党捐赠了数百万美元。

But I'm concerned about Joe Biden's mental acuity. And recently when you look at how the White House behaves, the thing that I'm worried about is that there's almost like this sensation that there's a shadow government that's actually running the country. And we didn't elect any of those people. And this is nothing to say anything bad about Janet Yellen or Jeff Zients or anybody else.
我担心乔·拜登的心智能力。最近当您看看白宫的行为方式时，我所担心的是几乎有一种感觉，好像有一个影子政府正在实际运作国家。我们没有选举这些人中的任何一个。这并不是要说珍妮特·耶伦、杰夫·齐恩茨或任何其他人有任何不好的事情。

But I think it's very important to acknowledge that, you know, other presidents have typically seen turnover in the highest ranks of government every two years or so. And there's been incredible consistency. Now one could say, well, that's a good thing. The other side of it is, well, that's what allows more vibrancy in government and to make sure that the president remains always in charge.
我认为认识到一个很重要的事实是，其他总统通常每两年左右会看到政府最高层的人员流动。而且一直保持着卓越的一致性。有人可能会说，这是一件好事。另一方面，这也能确保政府更具活力，确保总统始终处于掌控之中。

And so I think it's very important in this moment where we have a president who's 82 odd years old or however old he is. We need to have a chance, the American public to re underwrite his mental acuity. And I think that's a judgment that we should all be allowed to make. And I think the fairest way to do that is to feel the candidate who can be on the debate stage with him and who can actually just go toe to toe on the critical issues so that we as an American electorate can decide for ourselves, where does this issue land?
因此我认为，在我们的总统已经82岁甚至更老的情况下，现在非常重要。我们需要有一个机会，让美国公众重新评估他的智力敏锐度。我认为这是我们都有权做出的判断。我认为最公正的方法是选择一个能够在辩论舞台上与他并肩作战，在关键问题上真正能够对抗的候选人，以便我们作为美国选民可以自行决定这个问题的结果。

Is he mentally super sharp and ready to go for another four years, in which case, a lot of folks will support him? Or is this a moment where we actually need to be very responsible at the future of the country and not create some puppet government situation? I don't think it's funny that we have this weekend at Bernie's like meme that goes around about him. This is the president of the United States. It's the most important person in the world. We can't be in a situation where like that is a 30% probability that people joke about.
他是否心智非常敏锐，准备再来四年，这样的话，许多人会支持他？或者这是一个我们真正需要负责任对待国家未来的时刻，而不是创造出操纵政府的局面？我认为，我们不能以为他像《伯尼的周末》那样的模因梗是好笑的。他是美国总统，是全球最重要的人物。我们不能让人们以30%的可能性来开玩笑。

So my support of Bobby Kennedy is in part because what I've heard from him, I find intriguing. But the more important thing is somebody needs to be in the arena on the democratic side and put to test this mental acuity construct here and get us to an answer. Because otherwise I am worried that there's a bunch of folks that were not elected who are actually running the government. And I'm not sure how much Biden actually knows or doesn't know.
我的支持波比·肯尼迪部分原因是我从他那里听到的话让我感到很有趣。但更重要的是，有人需要在民主党方面进入竞选行列，测试这种认知能力的结构并使我们得到答案。否则我担心有一群未被选中的人实际上在运行这个政府。我不确定拜登真正知道多少或不知道多少。

And I want to know the answer to that question. I think everybody wants to know the answer and feels like Democrats would like a different candidate, that's what the polling is showing to be put on the field here. And there is the issue of he's had the fewest number of news conferences. We don't get to hear from him directly, which then fuels, I think, this perception, Friedberg, that he's in cognitive decline. And perhaps the cognitive decline has increased.
我想知道那个问题的答案。我觉得每个人都想知道答案，并且觉得民主党人想要一个不同的候选人，这正是调查结果所显示的。还有一个问题是他开的新闻发布会最少。我们无法直接听到他的意见，这更加助长了他智力下降的认知，也许智力下降已经加剧了。

Republicans love to, in the right, love to make these images of him confused on stage. Who knows if he's actually confused or if those are being selectively edited. But it certainly doesn't look good when you don't put the person out there to face the music and to take hard questions. I can't imagine he would do very well in a town hall or in an extended number of debates.
共和党人喜欢在正确的时候制造这些让人困惑的他在舞台上的形象。谁知道他是真的困惑还是被选择性编辑了。但当你不让这个人面对现实并回答难题时，这肯定不会有好的表现。我无法想象他在镇上大厅或更多的辩论中会做得很好。

And so this is the thing that I find truly scary is if the guy can't make it through the debates and he can't debate RFK and 10 other people and he can't do news conferences and we haven't heard directly from him or had him face some really hard questioning. He did one thing on MSNBC or CNN and it was so pathetically sycophantic and it looked like it was highly edited.
因此，我觉得真正可怕的是，如果这个人无法通过辩论，不能与RFK和其他10个人辩论，无法进行新闻发布会，并且我们没有直接听到他的发言，或面对一些真正艰难的质询。他在MSNBC或CNN上只做了一件事，结果如此让人厌恶且过于剪辑。

I kind of liked the host who did it. I'll pull up her name in a minute. I forgot her name right now. She's actually pretty good. She's kind of funny and she's kind of insightful, but she just thought through soft wealth to soft wealth. Is there an age, so can of science that we should have a cognitive test for office in your mind? I don't have an opinion on that. You don't? On an age? I mean, yeah, like should we have a cognitive test?
我有点喜欢做这个主持人的人。我一会儿就会查一下她的名字。我现在忘了她的名字。她实际上很不错。她有些有趣，有些深刻，但她只是想通过柔性财富来解决问题。是否存在一个年龄，以便我们应该对官员进行认知测试？我对此没有意见。你不觉得吗？关于年龄？我的意思是，是的，我们应该进行认知测试吗？

A cognitive test? Should we cognitively test the president of the United States for office? I think what Chamath is saying is that when you hold debates and you do town halls and you do rallies, then that is a cognitive test. You'll see you'll be able to take the cognitive measure by seeing how quick on their feet they are. But if Biden doesn't debate anybody, we won't see it. And right now they're saying they want to debate Kennedy. So that tells you right there that they're afraid of something.
进行认知测试？我们是否应该对美国总统进行认知测试以确定是否适合担任职务？我认为 Chamath 的意思是，当你举行辩论、市政厅会议和拉力赛时，那就是认知测试。你可以通过观察他们的反应速度来进行认知测量。但如果拜登不参加任何辩论，我们就无法看到。现在，他们说他们想和肯尼迪进行辩论，这就告诉你他们害怕什么。

I just want to reiterate this. This is the single most important person in the world in the single most important job. If it breaks your brain in a moment like this, to not be partisan and think what would you do if it was the other side? I just think you're like an unpatriotic rube and you're going to get tricked. I'm not saying you, Jason. I'm saying anybody that thinks that. I mean, your camp. I want to see him debate.
我想再强调一下。这个人是世界上最重要的人，他担任的工作也是最重要的。如果在这样的时刻，你不能超越党派思考，想想如果是另一方会怎么做，那么我认为你就像一个不爱国的乡巴佬，将会被愚弄。我不是说你，Jason。我是指那些持有这种想法的人。我的意思是，我想看他辩论。

Yeah, especially if the Ukraine war is still going on because we're that close to being in a direct shooting war with Russia, which could lead to a nuclear war. So you need somebody to be contained. I'll be more worried about the relationship. I think it's contained. I think it's escalating. I don't think it's contained. It's escalating. And as of yesterday, there seems to be some conflagration between Kosovo and Serbia that's kicking up. So all of a sudden, we're talking about a totally different European land war and we have fiscal instability. We're about to talk about it today, but the home market could implode in the United States.
如果乌克兰战争仍在进行中，我们距离与俄罗斯的直接军事冲突非常接近，这可能会引发核战争。因此，我们需要控制局势。我更担心两国关系的问题。我认为目前它还受到控制，但也有升级的可能。昨天还发生了科索沃和塞尔维亚之间的一些冲突，突然间我们就会谈到完全不同的欧洲陆地战争问题，而我们又正在经历财政不稳定。今天我们将讨论这个问题，但美国的房地产市场可能会崩溃。

The commercial real estate market has already imploded. There's all this complexity. And I think that the idea that you can't demand the most important person in the world to be on top of their game, I just think that that's outrageous. You expect the best player in the NBA to be elite, right? Yes, of course. Yes, they have to get good sleep. They have to have good fitness. They're measuring every single dimension of an NBA player's life. They measure their sleep now, their diet, their shooting percentages, everything.
商业房地产市场已经崩溃了。这里存在着很多复杂性。我认为，认为你不能要求世界上最重要的人处于顶尖状态的想法是荒谬的。您希望NBA中最好的球员是精英，对吧？是的，当然。是的，他们必须得到充足的睡眠。他们必须有良好的健康状况。他们正在测量NBA球员生活的每个方面。他们现在测量他们的睡眠，饮食，投篮命中率等等。

And we're not doing that for the president of the United States. By the way, the MSNBC host who got the one interview I've seen with Biden in years was Stephanie Rule, our UHLE from 11th hour. Well, they given the questions. Have you seen that like Biden has these cue cards when he goes with the podium and literally has got the questions and it says who to call on. So they script the whole thing. That's a stack deck. That's a stack deck.
我们不是为美国总统这样做的。顺便说一下，我看过的拜登接受的唯一一个采访是由我们的11点主播Stephanie Rule（UHLE）进行的。那些问题都是提前准备好的。你看过拜登在发言台上使用提示卡，上面列出了问题和要点人物吗？所以他们把整个事情都给编剧了。这是有预谋的。

But Trump did that as well. If you remember, you did that in fairness. No, I gave him the questions. I'm saying I'm saying he said a PR the machinini lady. She had a huge binder and she would flip to the talk. My point is that's okay.
特朗普也曾那样做。如果你记得的话，你也做过公平对待。不，我给了他问题。我是说他说了一个公关机器人女士。她有一个巨大的文件夹，她会翻到讲话。我的意思是那没关系。

Hey, we never did the same thing with the answer. What are you talking about? Didn't you pick the first five speakers first five questions were people you knew you said that he didn't stack the deck, Jason. Come on, stop. We didn't have a script. You picked the first five speakers. My point is that is not a conference. That's an introductory event. That's the one announcing. Okay, fine. Same thing.
嘿，我们在答案方面从来没有做过相同的事情。你在说什么？难道你不是先选择了前五个演讲者，他们的前五个问题都是你认识的人，你说他没有操纵局面，Jason。拜托了停止。我们没有剧本。你选择了前五个演讲者。我的观点是这不是一个会议。那是一个介绍性的事件。那是一个宣布的事件。好吧，一样的事情。

You're you're talking about a White House press conference and he goes up to the podium and secretly when they zoom in on the camera, they're seeing that literally he knows who to call on and what the question is going to be. So in other words, the media is cooperating with the Biden administration for access for access and they're giving him the questions. All right. Anyway, let's let's move on.
你在说白宫新闻发布会，他走到讲台上，当摄像机放大镜头时，你会发现他实际上知道该找谁和问题将会是什么。换句话说，媒体正在与拜登政府合作为获取访问权，并提供问题。好的，无论如何，让我们继续吧。

I think it's very important to just acknowledge. You're trying to normalize it by comparing it to completely different kind of event. I am saying that is something they never did that with Trump. They never give Trump the questions. Trump loves to mix it up. That's why he's winning.
我认为只是承认问题的存在非常重要。你在通过将它与完全不同类型的事件进行比较来实现正常化。我想说的是，他们从未对特朗普这样做过。他们从未把问题呈现给特朗普。特朗普喜欢搅和。这就是为什么他赢得胜利。

That's how you know he's still mentally fit. I mean, mentally unfit Trump would be a scary proposition. You may or may not like his personality or temperament, but no one is accusing him of being in the denial. No, he's sharp. Or having dementia.
这就是你知道他仍然精神健全的原因。我的意思是，精神不健康的特朗普会是一个可怕的前景。你可能喜欢或不喜欢他的个性或性格，但没有人指控他否认现实。不，他很敏锐。也没有老年性痴呆症。

I think it's important to get on the record. I don't think we are saying that he is unfit to be president. I think at least what I'm saying is we have a right to underwrite the president every four years. On this dimension, this is the biggest issue that I see with Biden. And I'm concerned in the lack of turnover in the White House. And I want to know that he is actually in charge day to day and making the decisions versus a shadow government. That's all I want to know.
我认为把这件事情记录下来很重要。我们并不是说他不适合当总统。至少我认为的是，我们每四年有权利支持总统。在这一方面，我认为拜登存在最大的问题就是缺乏白宫的人员变动。我担心他是否每天都在掌握局面并做出决策，而不是让另一个管理层掌握实权。这是我想知道的全部。

I want to see him live on the debate stage so that he can validate that he is firmly on the controls. 100% of Americans want this. The only people who don't want it is people who are in power who are part of his group. That's not 100%. Does it mean?
我想看他在辩论舞台上现场表现，这样他可以证明他牢牢掌控局面。美国人民100%都想看到这一幕。唯一不想看到的是那些掌权并与他同一阵营的人。可他们并不代表100%。这是什么意思呢？

Well, I know. I'm talking about Americans who vote. They all want to see him debate. I don't know anybody who doesn't want to see a vibrant debate. So I think this is something the Democratic Party needs to the Democratic Party needs to rethink their stance on this. Put him out there, put him on the field, up or down, left or right.
我知道，我在说那些投票的美国人。他们都希望看到他的辩论。我不认识任何一个不想看到精彩辩论的人。因此，我认为这是民主党需要重新考虑的事情。让他站出来，让他上场，无论左右方向如何，支持或反对。

He has to debate at least three, four debates in the primaries, you know, earn his slot. It'll do real damage to the Democrats if Bobby Kennedy gets a ton of steam and they ignore him. I'll give you a different example of how Bobby's being roadblock, which is when you go to 538.com and you look at, you know, Nate does a great job of pulling up all of the polling that happens from all of the polling agencies.
他必须参加至少三到四场初选辩论，以赢得自己参选的资格。如果鲍比·肯尼迪获得了大量支持却被忽视，那将对民主党造成真正的伤害。我来给你举个不同的例子，说明鲍比被阻碍的情况。例如当你去538.com看看时，你会发现Nate从所有的民调机构中收集并展示出了所有的民调情况。

There are many instances where the Democratic field won't even include him when they ask him questions. And so there is definitely a concerted effort here. And I think it's not that I don't want Joe Biden to win. I think he could be fantastic. Again, I voted for him and I think that if he's mentally sharp and his hands are on the controls that you think he's sharp, no, I'm saying, I don't know. I know. I want to know for myself.
在许多情况下，民主党候选人在提问时甚至不会包括他。因此这里肯定有一个协调的努力。我认为，并不是说我不希望乔·拜登赢得胜利。我认为他可能会很棒。再一次，我投了他的票并且如果他精神状态清晰，掌控了手中的控制权，那么你认为他很聪明，我不是这么说，我不知道。我想自己知道。

What do you think the chances are? I don't want to. I mean, just using logic here, I think they could be pretty good actually. You know, there's a lot of it. Like, if you look at Buffett, he's 92. He's sharp as attack. Munger's 96. He's sharp as attack. I think that if you live reasonably well and Biden's got some great things working for him.
你认为这个可能性有多大？我不想说。从逻辑上讲，我认为可能性相当不错。你知道，有很多因素。比如说，如果你看巴菲特，他已经92岁了，却非常精明。蒙格尔已经96岁了，也非常精明。我认为如果你过得相对不错，拜登也有一些很好的因素支持他。

He's he's been a T total of his whole life. So all the things that would have caught up with you in your 80s, Biden has avoided. So from a health perspective, he has the best chance of being on top of his game. Can he be physically frail? I don't care about that. You know, that happens to everybody. So I think it's important to disambiguate those two.
他一生都是个禁酒主义者。所以你在八十岁时可能会遇到的所有问题，拜登都避免了。从健康的角度来看，他有最好的机会保持自己的状态。他会身体虚弱吗？我不关心那个。你知道，那是每个人都会经历的。所以我认为将这两者分清楚是很重要的。

And so it is very easy to tell when you're standing on a debate stage, hell, you can sit on the debate stage. I don't care. But I want you to be able to explain what you think in a way that's cogent and coherent. And you walk away thinking, Oh, I feel safer with him with his hands on the controls here. So that's what do you think?
因此，当你站在辩论舞台上时很容易明白自己的想法，甚至可以坐在那里。对此我并不在意，但我希望你能以明晰且连贯的方式表述你的想法。当你离开时，大家都感到放心，认为你掌管这里非常安全。你认为呢？

You see, what do you think the chances are? He's sharp as attack. He's not in cognitive decline. He's not a tech. We know that. The question is whether he can serve at all. Should people have to take a cognitive test? You think that would be a good improvement?
你看，你认为他有多大的机会呢？他很聪明，状态非常好，没有认知退化问题，也不是一个科技人员。我们知道这一点。问题是他是否能够胜任。人们是否应该接受认知测试？你认为这会是一个好的改进吗？

No, look, I think the debate's the cognitive test. But let me ask. You have to just sand it and stuff like that, because it does seem like people are. The voters are the cognitive test. Okay.
不，你看，我认为辩论就是认知测试。但是让我问一下。你们需要简单地对话进行打磨等，因为好像人们看起来正在进行这样的测试。选民就是认知测试的对象。好吧。 这段话意思是，辩论本身就是一种认知测试，但说话者认为选民才是真正的认知测试对象。同时，说话者还提到了对话参与者需要进行沙盘等活动，以免误解或者混淆观点。

The problem is when the media is cooperating with the candidate by not asking them tough questions or even worth sharing the questions with them to give voters a false impression of how strong they are. I mean, look, the media's job is to be fundamentally antagonistic with the people on power, not to cooperate with them.
问题在于当媒体不向候选人提出艰难的问题，甚至不与他们分享问题，以给选民一种错误印象，认为他们很强大时，媒体正在与候选人合作。我的意思是，媒体的工作是基本上与权力人物敌对，而不是与他们合作。

Here are something super intriguing that happened this week. Jamie Diamond has hinted at running for office. Bill Ackman made a case for him to run for president in 2024. This is getting a lot of steam. Well, some people are talking about it on CNBC and it's trending on Twitter on Wednesday.
本周发生了一些非常引人入胜的事情。杰米·戴蒙德暗示他将竞选公职。比尔·阿克曼为他在2024年竞选总统做出了论据。这引起了很大的关注。一些人在CNBC上谈论它，并在周三在Twitter上趋势。

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond made some comments about potentially running for office in the future. I love my country and maybe one day I'll serve my country in one capacity or another. He's 67 years old. He didn't know that.
JP摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙德曾就未来可能参选公职发表过一些评论。我热爱我的国家，也许某一天我会以某种身份为国家服务。他现年67岁，之前不知道自己的年龄。

Bill Ackman tweeted his support for Diamond running as a dem against Biden. Ackman put out a number of compelling points. Diamond is one of the world's most respected business leaders. That's true. Politically centrist, pro business, pro free enterprise, all true. Supportive of well designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate, smart, thoughtful, pragmatic. Notice how to bring opposing parties together, highly respected by right, left and center. I think that's also true. Superbly managed JP Morgan through every crisis. Quote, no bullshit, straight talking charismatic leader with an enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them.
比尔·阿克曼在推特上表达了对达蒙德作为民主党参选人对拜登的支持。阿克曼提出了许多有说服力的观点。达蒙德是世界上最受尊敬的商业领袖之一，这是事实。在政治上持中间立场，支持商业、自由企业，这一点也是真实的。支持设计良好的社会计划和理性的税收政策，可以帮助不幸的人们，聪明、思想深刻、务实。注意，如何把对立的政党团结起来，受到左、右和中间的高度尊重。我认为这也是真实的。在每一次危机中，优秀地管理摩根大通。引用阿克曼的话，他是一个不说废话、直言不讳、颇有魅力的领袖，对世界问题和如何解决它们有着广泛的理解。

Chamath, I'll just ask it to you plainly. If you had three choices or four choices, Trump, DeSantis, Biden, and the Jedi, Jamie Diamond, stack rank those for us, rank them. Who do you got? Who do you vote for? Those are your four choices for all the Jamie Diamond one. Okay. DeSantis two. Okay. And Trump and Biden, it's a bit of a tie. Bit of a tie. Garbage garbage.
Chamath，我直接问你一个简单的问题。如果你有三个或四个选择，包括特朗普、德桑蒂斯、拜登和绝地武士杰米·戴蒙德，你会怎么排列它们，选择谁投票？对于戴蒙德，请称其为第一选择。好的。德桑蒂斯第二。特朗普和拜登则有点不好说。很糟糕。

Okay. Not garbage garbage. But it's a bit of a tie. I mean, it's two people that nobody wants to vote for. It seems wants to run.
好的。不是垃圾，但这是一个平手局面。我的意思是，这是两个没有人想投票的人。似乎没有人想竞选。

I personally believe that the era of Septigenarians and Octogenarians should come to an end in terms of their ability to run this country. I want that transition. Now Jamie is 67, but he's still much younger than these two other guys.
我个人认为，七十岁和八十岁的时代应该在领导这个国家的能力方面结束了。我希望看到这种转变。现在杰米67岁了，但他仍比这两个人年轻得多。 意思：我认为七八十岁的人应该不再执掌国家重要职务，需要进行交替换届。现在，虽然杰米也已经67岁，但他比那两个人更加年轻。

And again, I go back to- Two years is a lot. It's a lot of vitality, energy. It's matters. And I think that he is a very competent economic rational actor. So it would be interesting to see.
再次回到这个问题——两年有点长了，代表着很多活力和能量。这很重要。我认为他是一个非常有能力的经济理性行为者。所以，观察他的表现会很有趣。

I mean, look, the reality is, if I had to be really honest with you, I think that what we should do is keep chipping away at the establishment and how they pick candidates. It's going to be a slow process. But I think in 10 or 15 years, the real thing that we should all do is if there's enough citizen journalism that we should really just change the constitution so that we can allow people, people that have been here for 25 plus years, that have paid all their taxes, that have followed all the rules to run for president.
我的意思是，看，现实是这样的，如果我真的必须对你说实话，我认为我们应该继续攻击建制派和他们选举候选人的方式。这将是一个缓慢的过程。但我认为，10或15年后，我们所有人真正应该做的事情是，如果有足够的公民新闻报道，我们应该真正改变宪法，以便允许那些在这里居住25年以上，已缴纳所有税款，遵守所有规定的人竞选总统。

And then we could actually just, we could vote Elon in and just have him clean it up the way he's cleaning up everything else. But honestly, why not just do that? I mean, who would not want that?
然后我们实际上可以投票让伊隆过来把这一切都清理干净，就像他正在清理其他所有事情一样。但老实说，为什么不这样做呢？我是说，谁不想呢？

SACs, let me ask you to stack rank and then we'll get to the change in the constitution issue, which is that is a hell of Mary. How would you rank those four?
SACs，让我请你排序，然后我们会讨论修改宪法的问题，这是一个艰难的决定。你会如何对这四个方面进行排名？意思是要求对四个方面进行排序并讨论修改宪法这个困难的问题。

I think that we have run out of topics to talk about if Bill Ackman's latest political brain fart is a major topic of conversation. Frank fart.
我认为，如果Bill Ackman最近的政治胡言成为主要谈话话题，那么我们已经没有话题可谈了。真是无聊的胡说八道。

I think this is inspiring. You guys put Trump in office. The GOP put Trump in office. He's the outsider is outsider lunatic. And you can't even consider Jamie. You're laughing at that and you put Trump in office. You guys put Trump in office and you're going to do it again. You mean you guys listen, the GOP.
我认为这很振奋人心。你们把特朗普送上了总统宝座。共和党把特朗普送上了总统宝座。他是个外行的疯子。而你们甚至无法考虑詹米。你们正在嘲笑这个想法，但你们却把特朗普送上了总统宝座。你们把特朗普送上了总统宝座，而你们将会再次这么做。我的意思是，听着，共和党。

You're both a party. Here's the part about this conversation that sort of makes sense. Two thirds of the country says that they are uninspired and in fact fatigued by the idea of having a repeat of the same choice that four years ago. Everybody wants a different choice. So I get this like fantasy basketball drafting thing that we're trying to do here. Okay.
你们两个都是一群人。这次谈话的部分听起来有些合理。三分之二的人表示，他们对再次做出四年前同样的选择感到缺乏灵感和疲劳。每个人都想要不同的选择。所以我认为我们在这里尝试进行一种幻想篮球选秀的事情。好的。

The reason why I call it a brain fart and I look, Bill's a really smart guy. I'm not dragging him. But in order to win the presidency, you have to get the nomination of a major party. And the problem with all this like fantasy drafting is that you're trying to draft people who are anathema to the party that you're trying to get them the nomination from.
我把这称为“脑细胞屁”，我想说，比尔是个非常聪明的人，我不是要贬低他。但是为了赢得总统职位，你必须获得一个主要政党的提名。而这种花式选人的问题在于，你试图挑选一些与你试图获得提名的政党格格不入的人。

And Trump was able to get the nomination of the Republican party. Jamie Dime would have to get the nomination of the Democratic party. That's not going to happen. And it does remind me of Bloomberg. Remember, Bloomberg spent $100 million on his campaign. Even late, yeah, him away. He spent a lot of money and he made it to the first question of the first debate. Remember what happened? Elizabeth Warren said that this is a billionaire who talks about. He didn't fight. He laid down. He rolled over. She like ended him with one question, one debate. So my point is that you got to be able to get the nomination of a major party.
特朗普成功获得了共和党的提名。而詹米·奈米需要获得民主党的提名，但这不可能发生。这让我想起了彭博。记得吗，彭博在他的竞选活动中花费了1亿美元，即使很晚，他还是退出了。他花了很多钱，但只闯过了第一次辩论的第一个问题。还记得发生了什么吗？伊丽莎白·沃伦说，这是一个谈论贫困的亿万富翁。他没有拼搏，只是倒下，认输了。她一句话就结束了他的竞选之旅。因此，我的观点是，你必须能够获得一个主要政党的提名。

And actually, I think neither party could nominate a banker right now. I mean, if you saw what happened around the whole banking crisis that I think still going on in slow motion, I mean, the amount of animosity both towards the banks that went under and the idea of potentially bailing them out and then also the animosity towards JP Morgan when it actually bought first republic. I mean, both parties have such a strong populist wing in them right now that I think you could never get. Yeah, the head of the number one bank in the US to be their candidate.
实际上，我认为现在两个政党都不可能提名一位银行家。我的意思是，如果你看到围绕整个银行危机所发生的事情，我认为这种危机仍在缓慢发展，对那些破产银行以及可能被救助的银行的反感情绪以及对JP摩根实际收购第一共和国的反感情绪，两党现在都有如此强烈的民粹主义翼，以至于我认为你永远不可能获得美国头号银行的负责人成为他们的候选人。

You're completely wrong. I think in this case, respectfully, I mean, he could run as an independent as well. And although, you know, you like to think or it seems like you're proposing that things are going to be as they always were, Trump shows a wild card and then people forget Ross Perot, you know, he got 19% of the popular vote. He hit 20 million votes to Bush's 40 million and Clinton's 44. It is not unprecedented. And we are in a really struggling time.
你完全错了。在这种情况下，我觉得他可以作为一个独立候选人参选。虽然你想象或者似乎你提出的是一切都将像往常一样，但是特朗普表现出了一张王牌，人们也可以忘记罗斯·佩罗特（Ross Perot），你知道他得到了19%的普选票，拿到了2000万张选票，而布什和克林顿分别拿到了4000万和4400万张选票。这不是前所未有的事情，我们正在经历一个非常艰难的时期。

You started this off by saying that Democrats should draft Jamie Diamond. Now you're saying that I'm fighting for independent. Why? What is independent? There's no movement to draft the top banker in the country. Like where do you see this reality star like Trump in? Okay, that was the wild card of all wild cards. He ran in one of the two major parties and he hit a nerve. I know that's my point. So that's what you got to tell me about Ross Perot. And how did he hit 20 million votes? And isn't the world much different right now because of media, because of people going direct?
你开始说民主党应该招募杰米·戴蒙德，现在却说我在为独立人士而战。什么是独立人士？这个国家没有运动去招募顶级银行家。你认为像特朗普这样的真人秀明星在哪里？好吧，那是玩得最疯狂的牌。他在两个主要党派之一参选，引发了共鸣。我知道这是我的观点。那么你应该告诉我罗斯·佩罗特的情况，他是如何获得2000万选票的？现在的世界是否因为媒体，因为人们直接进行而变得截然不同了呢？

We're talking, I mean, Shabaf just proposed Elon. If you're proposing Elon, you're saying people are proposing a constitutional amendment so that competent people sure who are not born in the country. Got it. Now, if you've lived here for 25 years or 30 years, you've created hundreds of thousands of jobs and paid tens of billions of taxes. The idea that you are less fit than half these politicians to run for president is insane. Okay, well, that's a different question.
我们在讨论，我是说，Shabaf刚刚提议支持Elon。如果你支持Elon，那么你就是在说人们正在提议宪法修正案，以确保有能力的人即使没有在这个国家出生也可以参选。明白了吗？现在，如果你在这里生活了25年或30年，创造了成千上万的就业机会，纳税数十亿美元。认为你比这些政治家中的一半不适合竞选总统是荒谬的。好的，那就是一个不同的问题了。

What do you think about that? That idea is stupid. Do you think we should change the constitution to allow non-nationals to run for president? Don't stop saying non-nationals. It's so gross. It's like, well, you know, it's people that weren't necessarily born here. But if you've lived your whole life here, the majority of your life and you've built value for America and helped it win, all of a sudden you're less capable of being president, that's absolutely not true. Oh, I didn't say it was. I'm describing what the constitution says. This was called the Schwarzenegger amendment because, you know, when he was governor of California, there were people who wanted him to run for president.
你认为这个主意怎么样？那个想法很愚蠢。你觉得我们应该修改宪法来允许非国民竞选总统吗？别再说非国民了，那太恶心了。就好像，你知道的，那些不一定是这里出生的人。但如果你在这里生活了一辈子，大部分时间都为美国创造了价值并帮助它获胜，突然之间你就不太能胜任总统这个职位，这绝不是真的。哦，我没说这是真的。我是在描述宪法所说的。这项修正案被称为施瓦辛格修正案，因为你知道，当他担任加利福尼亚州州长时，有人希望他竞选总统。

But look, it's too hard to change the constitution. It's a very difficult process. So do I think that's going to happen? No. Would you be in favor of that? And under what circumstances? Do you think that it's about saying we should change that? He's emphatic. We should change in effect. So what do you think? It's not a pressing issue for me. I'd rather have a balanced budget amendment. I'd rather that the president have a line item veto to control spending.
但是看吧，改变宪法太难了。这是一个非常复杂的过程。所以我认为这会发生吗？不可能。您是否赞成这样做？在什么情况下？你觉得这是说我们应该改变宪法吗？他强调说，我们应该实质性地改变。那你怎么看？这对我来说不是一个紧迫的问题。我更希望有一个平衡预算的修正案。我更希望总统能行使逐条预算否决权来控制支出。

If you want to blow up the government and cut it down to size and impose the ideals of liberalism, true liberalism, free speech, well controlled borders, but good immigration, et cetera, et cetera, I feel like there are lots of people who could do that. And the only difference is they were accidentally not born here, except they've created more value in America than most Americans that were born here. I think the term would be actually be foreign born national would be the most accurate term. They're national now. Whatever they were born for. Whatever dumb term you want to use. I'm just using the ones in the Constitution, the government is a sorry, Jamal, for using accurate terms. I'll try to use less accurate terms in the future.
如果你想颠覆政府并缩小它的规模，推行真正的自由主义理念——言论自由，良好的边境管制和优秀的移民政策等等，我觉得有许多人可以做到。唯一的不同之处就是，他们是无意中没有在这里出生，而事实上，他们在美国创造的价值比大多数出生在这里的美国人还要多。我认为最准确的术语应该是“外国出生的国民”。无论出生在哪里，他们现在都是美国的国民。不管你想使用什么愚蠢的术语，我只使用宪法中的术语。政府很抱歉使用准确的术语，我会尽量在未来使用不太准确的术语。

So back to Jamie. Jamie Diamond. Nobody here is questioning whether he is a supremely competent executive. He's gone fully grant that he's done an amazing job. Being JP Morgan, it was ready the biggest. He's made it even bigger. How is that possible? Whether that's a good thing. In the face of them saying we got to stop the banks from getting bigger. He's bigger. Yeah, whether that's a good thing for the country ultimately is a different question.
回到詹米。詹米·戴蒙德。在这里没有人质疑他是否是一个极其能干的高管。我们承认他做得很好。作为JP摩根的CEO，它本已是最大的，但他把它做得更大了。这怎么可能？面对着人们纷纷表示我们必须阻止银行扩大的呼声，他还是让银行变得更大了。这是否对国家最终产生有益影响是另一个问题。

No one questions his competence and his expertise. But again, I see no ground swell for him in either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or even as an independent because again, it doesn't fit the populist mood of the country right now. Agreed.
没有人质疑他的能力和专业知识。但是，我仍然看不到他在民主党、共和党或者作为独立候选人方面有什么大规模的支持，因为目前的民意气息并不符合这一点。同意。

So that's your pragmatic path to victory. But let me ask you about competence then because maybe I can frame the question and get a better answer out of you. That's what I thought I was answering when you said who's getting more competent. Well, I mean, you guys interpret my questions. How have you like you interpret it in terms of competence?
这是您实现胜利的务实道路。但是让我问问您关于能力的问题，也许我可以更好地引导问题并从您那里得到更好的答案。当您问谁变得更有能力时，我的理解是回答这个问题。我是说，您们可以解读我的问题。那么，您如何解读这个问题的能力方面？

Sacks interpreted the question of pragmatically to getting into office. But let's ask Sacks the question and I'll ask you pragmatic analyst sacks the question of competence. In terms of competence, I gave you like four people. Is he the most competent person to run the country right now? No, I think the sadness is more competent than him. I think that of all the major candidates who actually have a realistic shot, DeSantis is the most supremely competent as an executive.
萨克斯从实际角度解释了进入政府的问题。但是让我们问问萨克斯这个问题，我会问你这个实际分析师，他在能力方面是否是领导国家的最有能力的人之一？就能力而言，我给了你四个人，他是现在领导国家最有能力的人吗？不，我认为萨迪斯比他更有能力。我认为在那些有实际机会的主要候选人中，德桑蒂斯作为行政主管最有能力。

He's run the state of Florida. He did it during COVID, which was a major crisis. We all saw what happened. All of our friends were leaving California because California had locked down. Schools were closed. We had the worst learning loss of any state. Small businesses were going under. Our toddlers had to wear these stupid pointless cloth masks to spool. You're including Jamie and that crew. Hold on. So, DeSantis kept Florida open. DeSantis kept Florida open. They had a great economy. It's number one in job creation investment. People moving there. He preferred the speech balance and budget. And that's why he was able to grow his majority from under one person when he first got elected to 20 points.
他曾领导佛罗里达州，并在COVID大流行期间实施了领导工作，这是一个重大危机。我们都看到了发生了什么。我们所有的朋友都离开了加利福尼亚，因为那里被封锁了。学校关闭，我们在学习上的损失比其他任何州都要严重。小企业在垮台。我们的幼儿们不得不戴着毫无意义的布口罩去上学。而且，你包括了杰米和那个团队在内。等等，所以DeSantis让佛罗里达州保持开放。佛罗里达州经济非常出色，是就业创造和投资方面排名第一的州。吸引了越来越多的人前往。他注重平衡和预算，这就是为什么他能够将他的优势从首次当选时的不到一人扩大到20个百分点的原因。

So you believe he would be more qualified than Jamie Diamond? Yeah. Because he's actually been tested in a political realm. Got it. You see, you think that is the better test? I disagree. And I think probably the number one thing you have to do to be effective politically is to be able to understand when the media, the mainstream media and all their fake experts are wrong. Because that's why the country is at such a mess. We keep listening to all these fake experts who are wrong about everything, including COVID.
所以你认为他比Jamie Diamond更有资格吗？是的。因为他实际上已经在政治领域接受过考验。明白了。你认为这是更好的考验吗？我不同意。我认为要想在政治上有效，最重要的一件事是能够理解当媒体、主流媒体和所有他们的虚假专家都错了的时候。因为这就是为什么这个国家陷入如此糟糕的混乱。我们继续听取这些错了的虚假专家的意见，包括COVID。

Did Trump do a good job as president? You remind? He listened to the fake experts. He had Fauci in there. So you don't think Trump did a good job as president? On COVID, he listened to Fauci too much. But okay, because Trump was an outsider and you seem to think he did a good job as president and a lot of Republicans do. So that's my point. He was an outsider. You love putting words in our mouth and characterizing it.
特朗普的总统工作做得好吗？你记得吗？他听从了虚假的专家，让福奇参与其中。所以你不认为特朗普做得好吗？在COVID方面，他听太多福奇的话。但因为特朗普是一个局外人，你似乎认为他做得很好，很多共和党人也这么认为。这就是我的观点。他是一个局外人。你喜欢替我们下定义和描述我们。

I'm not. I'm asking you to do a good job. In ways that I never quite said. Okay. I'm just asking you. I think that Trump did a number of good things in office. For example, he kept us out of foreign wars. And I think the economy was pretty good until COVID. But yeah, he had no political. But I would say they were like two big Achilles heels. One was we had huge deficits. Yeah, that's that during Trump. And the other was once COVID happened, he listened to Fauci. And Fauci was driving the train during COVID and hold on, gave us the lockdowns. And then Trump never fired Fauci. And on Trump's last day in office, he gave us a medal. Insane, insane.
我没有要求你做出好的工作，而是我从未完全表达过的方式。好的，我只是在询问。我认为特朗普在任期内做了很多好事。例如，他让我们远离外国战争，而且我认为经济在COVID之前相当不错。但是，他没有政治头脑。但我认为他们有两个致命伤。一是我们有巨额赤字。对，那就是在特朗普的时期。另一个是COVID发生后，他听从了福奇的建议。福奇在COVID期间掌控一切，实施封锁政策。然后特朗普从未解雇福奇。在特朗普任期的最后一天，他还给福奇颁了奖章，简直是疯了。

And just so everybody remembers June 16, 2015. Ben Carson and businessman Donald Trump tied in fourth place with 5%. So things can change. And now Trump is swinging wildly at DeSantis saying that DeSantis was worse than Cuomo on COVID, which is a more affordable. I really do not want to re-litigate that. That's the last thing I want to re-litigate is COVID. Man, we got bigger fish to fry. DeSantis, I think, has been doing really well over the last week because Trump has been making all these wild attacks on him. And DeSantis has been responding. So now they're really punching at each other. It's really interesting.
大家记得2015年6月16日，本·卡森和商人唐纳德·特朗普得分并列第四，得分为5%。事情会发生变化。现在特朗普猛烈抨击德桑蒂斯，说他在COVID方面比库莫糟糕，这是一个更亲民的问题。我真的不想再重提这个问题了。我们有更重要的事情要处理。我认为德桑蒂斯在过去一周的表现非常好，因为特朗普一直在对他进行猛烈攻击，而德桑蒂斯一直在回应。现在他们真的在激烈地攻击对方，这很有趣。

I'll pivot to the debt ceiling real quick here. The House voted overwhelmingly to pass the debt ceiling agreement. 314 to 117. It's in the hands of the Senate. It can be passed by the time you're listening to this. Some Republicans think spending didn't go far enough. No shocker there. But Speaker McCarthy called it a first step. Projected the bill would reduce budget deficits by 1.5 trillion over the next decade.
我将在这里快速谈论一下债务上限。众议院以压倒性的投票结果通过了债务上限协议，314票对117票。现在这个协议在参议院手中，可能在你听到这段话时已经被通过。有些共和党人认为支出不够多，这并不出乎意料。但麦卡锡议长称这是第一步，估计这项法案将在未来十年内削减1.5万亿美元的预算赤字。

Some highlights, non-defense spending flat in 2024 at 704 billion only increases 1% in 2025 and aim to limit federal budget growth to 1% for the next six years. For since 30 billion in unspent COVID relief money, that seems logical. Fully funds medical care for veterans. That seems like a good idea. It's 20 billion from the IRS over the next two years to put towards non-defense programs. That's that crazy idea to hire 80,000 or something IRS agents. Pauses on student loan repayments will now end in August. We've talked about that on the show. Biden student loan forgiveness plan will be settled in the Supreme Court.
此处的重点是，非国防支出在2024年将保持在7040亿美元不变，仅在2025年增长1%，并旨在限制联邦预算在未来六年内增长1%。由于仍有300亿美元的未使用COVID救助金，这似乎是合理的。充分资助退伍军人的医疗保健，这似乎是一个好主意。在未来两年中，IRS将提供200亿美元用于非国防项目。这似乎是雇佣80000名或类似数量的IRS特工的疯狂想法。学生贷款偿还的暂停将在8月结束。我们已在节目中谈到过这个问题。拜登的学生贷款宽限计划将在最高法院解决。

Some stats on US debt put up two charts here and then I'll get freeburg's position because he's very passionate about this. US annual surplus for deficits through end of year 2022. See those great years? I think those are the democratic.com Clinton years. He did. He ran it up. Well done Clinton. US national debt end of year 2022. My lord. 32 getting close to 32 trillion US annual federal spending. Up and around breaking 6 trillion a year and tax revenue by deficit here. There you have it.
这里展示了一些关于美国债务的统计数据。我会放上两张图表，然后得出Freeburg的观点，因为他对此非常热情。第一张图展示了美国从现在到2022年年底的赤字盈余情况。看到那些伟大的年份了吗？我想那些应该是民主党人克林顿时期。他增加了债务。做得不错，克林顿。第二张图展示了2022年年底的美国国家债务。哎呀，达到了32万亿。此外，美国年度联邦支出也在不断增长，已经接近了每年6万亿美元。税收与赤字之间的差距也在不断扩大。这就是数据。

Go to that red chart. This is the our national debt. This is a upside down hockey stick. So this is what's concerning about it is we're going to be exponential on this thing. The problem with this just to reframe it once again for the hundred thousand time. Wait a second. Wait this red chart isn't this freeburg's losses in Vegas this weekend? I think that's our collective losses in Vegas. We had. I think we did the math. This group was accounted for 10. 10. 10. Of Vegas is blackjack revenue for the year. So good job everyone. Good job.
走到那个红色图表那里。这是我们的国家债务。这是一个上下颠倒的曲棍球杆图表。所以让我们担心的是，我们在这方面将呈指数增长。这个问题就是再次为100,000次重新定义一下。等一下。等一下。这个红色的图表不是指本周末在拉斯维加斯的弗里伯格的损失吗？ 我想那是我们在拉斯维加斯的集体损失。我们算了一下，这个群体占了拉斯维加斯一年的二十一点黑杰克收入的十分之一。所以大家做得很好。干得漂亮。

People everybody in Vegas is now completed their Q three quarter targets early. So the problem obviously with mounting debt is the interest payments on the debt cause you to take out more debt and there's a tipping point where it becomes insurmountable. And there are many people sounding the alarm that we may be entering that point that in order to fund the interest obligations on the debt, we need to take out more debt and then there's more interest payments and therefore there's more debt and it just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
拉斯维加斯的所有人现在已经提前完成了他们第三季度的目标。显然，债务不断增加的问题在于债务的利息付款会导致你借更多的债务，直到出现无法解决的临界点。有很多人正在发出警报，认为我们可能正在进入这个临界点，为了满足债务的利息需求，我们需要借更多的债务，随之而来的又是更多的利息付款和更多的债务，这个问题会不断扩大。

And so this chart I'm sharing here is actually from the federal government's GAO, the government Accountability Office, which acts almost like an independent accounting and forecasting body trying to provide some outlook on the fiscal condition of the federal government. And this is an analysis I think they put out a few weeks ago showing that as of the fiscal year 22, 8% of the overall federal budget was going towards interest spending by fiscal year 25, it'll be 26% and then net interest spending will need to grow to half of the budget.
这里我分享的图表实际上来自于联邦政府的政府问责办公室（GAO），该机构几乎像独立的会计和预测机构一样，试图为联邦政府的财政状况提供一些展望。这是他们几周前发布的一项分析，显示截至财年22年，8%的联邦预算用于利息支出。到了财年25年，这个比例将会增加到26%，净利息支出需要增长到预算的一半。

But if you go to the other. Sorry, why don't you say that? Why don't you say the years because it's important to note what years they're talking about? 2050, 1, 20, 96 is what they're showing. This is a long window. I get it, but let me show you this chart. Just pull up the first chart. So this is our federal government's interest payments per year. And so this is how much the government pays on interest for the debt. By the way, most of the debt is getting refinanced now at the higher interest rates because a lot of this debt was sitting in in the era since 2008, but as the debt has to get refinanced and more debt is taken on to fund the interest payment obligations, the interest payment actually starts to mount more significantly. And that's what we've seen in the last two fiscal years in particular.
但如果你看另一个方面，抱歉，你为什么不说呢？为什么不说这些年份，因为注明他们所说的是哪些年份很重要呢？他们展示的是2050年1月20日至2096年的一个长期窗口。我知道，但是让我给你展示一下这张图表。打开第一个图表。这是我们联邦政府每年的利息支付。这就是政府为债务支付的利息金额。顺便说一句，现在大部分债务都以更高的利率进行再融资，因为很多债务都是在2008年以后存放的，但是当债务必须进行再融资并且需要承担更多的债务来支付利息时，利息支付实际上开始显著增加。这就是我们在过去两个财政年度中看到的。

Now when you take this chart and you overlay how much we spend on defense. So here's defense spending. We are, I think as of this month or last month, now spending more, the federal government is spending more on interest payments on the federal debt than they are on national defense. Whether we believe we are spending money on national defense in a smart way or in an accountable way or whether these are good strategic priorities and good strategic decisions, the fact remains that at some point here our ability to actually fund the programs that we want to fund, whether they're Social Security, Medicare or defense, the major cost outlays for the federal government, it's going to get further hindered and continually more hindered by the fact that these interest payments are climbing so significantly.
现在，当你将这张图表和我们在国防上的支出重叠在一起时，我们花在国防上的支出是这样的。我认为从这个月或上个月开始，联邦政府现在花费在支付联邦债务利息上的钱比花费在国家国防上的还多。无论我们是否认为我们在聪明和负责任的方式上花费在国家国防上的资金，或者这是否是良好的战略重点和决策，事实是，在某个时候，我们实际上资助我们想要资助的项目的能力，无论是社会保障、医疗保险还是国防，这些将是联邦政府的主要开支，都将因为这些利息支付的不断上涨而受到越来越大的阻碍。

And if you go to the third chart, I think it kind of provides the final point, which is Social Security. And we're very quickly seeing interest payments mount to the point of where Social Security spending lays. And when that happens, obviously, as you guys know, everyone talks about that as being the golden program, the right and the left, the Democrats and the Republicans simply will not touch Social Security from a policy perspective, from a getting elected perspective, but the economic and arithmetic reality is running up against them, which is that the interest payments on the debt are starting to threaten our ability to fund Social Security and Medicare.
如果你看第三份图表，我认为它提供了最终的观点，即社会保障。我们很快就会看到利息支出达到社会保障支出的程度。当这种情况发生时，众所周知，无论左右两派的民主党和共和党，从政策和竞选的角度来看都绝不会触及社会保障，因为它被视为黄金计划。但是，经济和算术现实正在迎头碰上他们，利息支出开始威胁我们资助社会保障和医疗保险的能力。

There's many more charts we could pull up to highlight this. The Republicans in announcing the debt deal this week made a lot of proclamations about it being a win and showed how we were able to reduce spending by $2 trillion. I think the statement they made, the deal cuts $2.1 trillion in spending over the six-year life of the bill and $1.5 trillion in statutory mandate savings over the next two years. $2.1 trillion over six years. Remember, we're talking about a $7 trillion per year budget.
我们可以列举更多的图表来强调这一点。共和党在宣布债务协议时，发表了很多有关此协议是胜利的宣言，并且展示了我们如何能够减少2万亿美元的支出。我认为他们所说的那份协议将在六年内削减2.1万亿美元的支出，并在未来两年内减少1.5万亿美元的法定节约。2.1万亿美元的支出削减是在六年内实现的。请记住，我们这里谈论的是一年7000万亿美元的预算。

So that's $42 trillion over those six years. We're cutting $2 trillion of 42. So it's a 5% impact. It's a start, but what leverage do they have now? I'm not the one that actually did decide to make cuts. That feels to me, and we did predict here that they would get this done. Does feel to me like this is some amount of progress, right?
所以，在这六年内总计为42万亿美元。我们要削减42万亿的2万亿美元。因此，它的影响率为5%。这是一个开始，但他们现在有什么杠杆作用呢？我并没有决定削减开支。我觉得，我们之前就预测过他们会这样做。这对我来说似乎是一定程度的进展，对吧？

Do you feel good about it or indifferent, Friedberg? I think you guys know, I think that we have to tackle the structural problem of revenue spending interest rates. Those are very big numbers that are challenging each other. Chipping away at the spending doesn't quite get us there. And it doesn't seem like there's a clear path here. Even the argument that RFK made when he came on our show, RFK Junior made when he came on our show, that cutting military spending would have an impact.
弗里德伯格，你对此感觉良好还是不感兴趣？我认为你们知道，我们必须解决收入支出利率的结构性问题。这些都是很大的数字，相互之间存在挑战。削减支出并不能完全解决问题。而且似乎也没有明显的解决途径。即使是RFK Junior在我们节目上提出的削减军事开支会产生影响的观点，也不太可行。

I mean, you guys see military spending is already starting to get overtaken by the interest of payment spending. So does that really move the needle? I think it's going to be an economic reality that all programs are going to need to be cut back in order to fund the debt obligations or we're going to see massive inflation.
我的意思是，你们已经看到军事支出已经开始被支付利息的支出所超过。这真的有什么作用吗？我认为这将是一个经济上的现实，所有的计划都需要被削减以资助债务义务，否则我们将看到巨大的通货膨胀。

I guess my question was, you feel like this was a good step or a good signal that maybe the government is and our representatives are getting the message that they need to make some cuts at some point. I don't think that there's any way to provide the necessary fiscal security for the federal government without bipartisan unitary support around the objective, which is to get to a balanced budget and to reduce the overall debt and interest payment obligations.
我想问的问题是，您觉得这是一个好的步骤或一个好的信号，表明政府和我们的代表意识到他们需要在某个时刻进行一些削减。我认为没有任何方法可以为联邦政府提供必要的财政安全，而不是围绕目标获得两党一致支持，这个目标是实现预算平衡并减少总债务和利息支付义务。

And if you can't start from that point, it's this push and pull over what programs get cut, but I want more money being spent. I want to have a pipeline. I want to do that. So you're not super enthused by this. I thought it was a positive step, Chamath. You have talked about refinancing the debt, putting the $100 trillion coin or whatever. We wind up doing refinancing this on a long arc, 50 year, 100 year arc.
如果你无法从这个点开始，就会发生推拉，争吵哪些项目被削减，但我希望能花更多的钱。我想要建立一条管道。我想要做到这一点。所以你对此并不是非常热心。我认为这是一个积极的步骤，Chamath。你谈到过债务再融资，放置100万亿美元的硬币，或者其他什么。我们最终会以50年、100年的持续时间重新融资。

What does this debt ceiling reconciliation or whatever we're going to call it, that they came to some sort of agreement here, signal to you. You predicted they would get through this pretty easily. So yeah, boring, nothing burger, nothing, but move on. I see. Would you ask a question? Would you buy a 100 year bond from the federal government?
这个债务上限调解，或者不管怎么称呼它，他们在这里达成了某种协议，对你意味着什么？你曾预测他们会轻松地通过这一点。所以，对我来说没啥特别的，无聊，毫无意义，但是我们需要继续前进。我懂了。你想问一个问题吗？你会买联邦政府的100年债券吗？

If I was a foreign government, yes. What interest would you need to get paid on that to take that on? Probably 1 to 2 percent. 1 to 2 percent for 100 years? Yeah. So it would be downside protection. You just feel like this is a secure place to put some amount of money. This is how any country with a turbulent currency would make this decision. And you could actually get close to zero.
如果我是一个外国政府，是的。你需要得到多少利息才能接受这个？可能是1到2个百分点。100年1到2个百分点的利息？是的。这是为了保护投资的下行风险。你只是感觉这是一个安全的地方来放置一些资金。这就是任何有风险货币的国家做出这个决定的方式。事实上，你甚至可以接近于零。

I think that when we had ZIRP, you probably could have charged a negative interest rate because you would have effectively been charging countries, third world developing countries, even first world countries that just wanted a protective mechanism against their currency volatility. They would have probably paid you. Just like today, you can get B.O.J. debt. That's negative yielding.
我认为，在零利率政策时期，可能可以收取负利率，因为实际上你在向国家、第三世界发展中国家，甚至想要一种防护机制来应对货币波动的第一世界国家收费，他们可能会为此支付费用。就像今天一样，你可以获得日本银行债券，这是负收益的。

So it's no longer negative, but it's still probably in the realm of 1, 1 and 1 half percent. It's nothing. If you just do the math, it's nothing. And this is why I don't understand why everybody just gets their underwear and a bunch here. OK. Nongender underpants. Put the red chart up there. It's nothing. It's nothing. It's nothing. It's nothing. It's a hockey stick.
所以它不再是负数，但可能仍在1、1.5%的范围内。这不算什么。如果你只是算一下，不值一提。这就是为什么我不明白为什么每个人都要紧张得像要失去什么似的。好的，不分男女的内裤，把红色图表放在那里。这不算什么。这不算什么。这不算什么。这不算什么。它就像一只曲棍球棍。

Nothing means nothing. I think you guys. What you see here is an accelerating problem. Yeah. Cut revenue. The debt is getting bigger and bigger at the same time that foreign governments and investors in general don't want to fund our debt. So therefore interest rates will rise. Our interest costs will keep going. That's not why interest rates are going up. Well, if they're going up because the Fed is raising rates because of inflation, but at the same time that's happening, foreign governments are not as interested in having dollar reserves and US Treasuries.
什么也不代表什么。我想你们应该知道，这里出现了一个日益加重的问题。是的，收入缩减了，债务在增加，而外国政府和投资者一般不愿意为我们的债务提供资金，因此利率将会上升。我们的利息成本将会持续增加。不过这并不是利率上升的原因。嗯，如果利率上升是因为通货膨胀导致美联储提高利率的话，但与此同时，外国政府对美元储备和美国国债的需求不如以前。

Said who? Guys demonstrated by what? You look at the foreign reserves of these countries, of these sovereigns. They are much less interested in holding US Treasuries. Foreign reserves China. Starting with China and all the BRICS countries. Foreign reserves are up. These guys are banking US dollars like nobody's business. I don't think so. I think it's been going down since 2008. I'll find you a chart. Yeah. Maybe from 2008, I don't know, from the great financial crisis at the absolute depths. But what I'm saying is that in general, the anchor currency for governments and central banks will likely be in the future, the United States dollar.
是谁说的？这些家伙是通过什么证明的呢？你看看这些国家和主权国家的外汇储备，它们对持有美国国债的兴趣要少得多。中国的外汇储备。从中国和所有金砖国家开始。外汇储备正在增加。这些家伙像没事一样存储美元。我不这么认为。我认为自2008年以来一直在下降。我会找一个图表给你看。是的。也许从2008年开始，我不知道从大危机的最低点开始。但我的意思是，总的来说，政府和央行的锚定货币未来可能是美元。

And we get back to the circular argument, which is I don't think it's possible for politicians to cut expenses. So I am just an advocate for cutting revenue because I do think it's the simplest way to force people because the next time they go through these machinations and all this theater around a debt ceiling, they'll just have less revenue to play with. And it'll just become a harder and harder and harder problem. Meanwhile, I do think that you have to take the ball where it lies and take these 24 or $30 trillion and refinance it well out into the future and make a bet on US exceptionalism and US GDP. And if you don't want to believe it, don't fucking be here. Move to some other country where you think it's so much better and go do it there.
我们回到那个循环推论，我的意思是，我不认为政客们能够削减开支。因此我只是支持减税，因为我认为这是迫使人们的最简单方法，因为下一次他们进行这些操作并展开关于债务上限的所有这些戏剧时，他们将拥有更少的收入可以玩耍。问题会变得越来越困难。同时，我认为你必须在债务到期前将这24或30万亿美元的债务重组，对美国的排他性和美国国内生产总值进行押注。如果你不相信，请不要在这里浪费时间。搬到其他你认为更好的国家去做吧。

But, Timak, what if the markets not there? What if the buyers are not there and you're wrong? Sure. I mean, you know what, an asteroid could hit the earth in the next day. We could talk about all kinds of long-tailed consequences, but there is there you have to be able to probably wait these things and then spend your time thinking about the things that are more probabilistic and be able to compartmentalize the anxiety of the less probabilistic things. I think that could there be a scenario where there is no interest? Sure. Is there one? No, because you see every day the government's in the market doing auctions and there is a robust demand for United States government debt.
但是，Timak，如果市场不存在怎么办？如果买家不在，你错了怎么办？当然。我的意思是，你知道吗，明天可能会有一颗小行星撞击地球。我们可以谈论各种长尾影响，但有一些事情你必须能够等待并花时间思考更有可能发生的事情，同时能够整理那些不太可能发生的事情带来的焦虑。我认为可能会有没有兴趣的情况出现吗？肯定有可能。但是现在没有这种情况发生，因为我们每天都可以看到政府在市场上进行拍卖，美国政府债券有着强劲的需求。

And until there isn't this argument is specious. And all I would tell you is just keep trying, put out more, try a 45-year-old bond and see how it feels like. Try a 50-year. You don't have to do 100 if it makes you too anxious. That's fine. Let me just ask you, at some point, if the market isn't there, the buyers are not there. Yeah, but let's just go through the analysis because I know that you think it's at zero chance, but if it's as low probability, do you agree that the severity is high, that the significance of that being the case?
直到没有这个争论，它就是苍白无力的。我只能告诉你要继续尝试，发行更多债券，试着发行一种45年期的债券，看看它的感觉如何。尝试一种50年期的债券。如果100年期债券让你太紧张就不必发行。我想问你，在某个点上，如果市场不在那里，买家也不在那里，你怎么看？是的，但让我们仍然进行分析，因为我知道你认为它的机会为零，但如果它的概率很低，你是否同意其严重性很高，其意义重大？

Again, I am not going to give an IODA of breadth to a long-tail five-sigma outcome. It is a waste of time because it occupies, and I'll tell you why I don't do it. It occupies my mind share, which takes away from me figuring out how to make money and win on the field today. So I have, I wake in a 24-hour day, just to give you a sense of it, I sleep for eight, I'm eating for another one or two, all this bullshit, I have four or five hours a day of useful thinking time, and I try to think of the belly of the probable. And I try to compartmentalize these dumb long-tail sigma events because it distracts me from making money and winning. I actually try to think about long-tail sigma events that could make me money. This isn't one of them. So I just don't spend time thinking about it.
我不会因为一个长尾五西格玛结果而浪费时间。因为它会占据我的意识空间，从而分散我今天如何赚钱和赢得比赛的精力。所以在一天中，我睡觉八个小时，吃饭还要一两个小时，这些都是无关紧要的，我只有四五个小时的有效思考时间。我会尝试分隔开那些干扰我赚钱和赢利的愚蠢的长尾西格玛事件。我会去思考那些可能为我带来收益的长尾西格玛事件，而这并不是其中之一。所以我不会浪费时间去思考它。

I could be totally wrong. Can we pull up this chart? I could be totally wrong, but it's worked for me so far, and I'm going to stick to what works. Guy, Sax has been on Google for five minutes. He's got something for you, Jamal. Go ahead. You should stick to the investing strategy that works for you. I'd like to talk about the status of US Treasuries. So if you look here, this is total foreign treasury holdings as percent of marketable treasury securities. So it's gone down from the mid 50s to the low 30s since 2008, 2009 as a percentage.
我可能完全错了。能拉起这张图吗？我可能完全错了，但这种方法对我有效，我会坚持用这个策略。伙计，Sax已经在谷歌上看了五分钟。他有一些东西要交给你，Jamal。请说。你应该坚持适合你的投资策略。我想谈谈美国国债的现状。所以，如果你看这里，这是外国国库券持有总数占可交易国库债券的百分比。因此，自2008年至2009年以来，这个比例已从中50年代下降到低30年代。

So foreign governments don't want our treasuries as much as they used to starting with China. They are diversifying into other currencies and gold. And there are a bunch of good reasons for that.
外国政府不再像以前那样想要购买我们的国债，特别是中国。他们正在将资产分散到其他货币及黄金投资。这有很多好的原因。

By the way, this comes from a blog, which is really interesting. It's a crypto guy named Arthur Hayes. And this is actually a pretty interesting piece called exit liquidity. Hayes writes interesting pieces on the banking system and de-dollarization. He's got a little bit of a do-mer thesis with respect to the US dollar. And obviously he's pro-Bitcoin.
顺便提一下，这篇文章来自一个非常有趣的博客。这个博客的作者是一个加密货币人士，名叫阿瑟·海耶斯。这是一篇相当有趣的文章，名为“退出流动性”。海耶斯在银行系统和去美元化方面写了很有趣的文章。他对美元持有一种厌倦的态度，显然他是支持比特币的。

His views are sort of similar to topologies. But hey, man, I think one of the points he makes that's really interesting is that if you're to zoom out 30,000 feet and think about the regime that we had during, let's call it the unipolar moment where China and the United States were strong trading partners and we had this close relationship with them.
他的观点有点类似于拓扑学。但是，嘿，我认为他提出的一个非常有趣的观点是，如果你放眼到三万英尺高处，想象一下我们在“单极时刻”（指中国和美国成为强大贸易伙伴并与其建立密切关系时期）所拥有的政权，那就很有意思了。

The way the global economy worked is that China would sell goods to the United States. They would have huge trade surpluses. And then they would take those dollars and then use some of them to buy raw materials like energy that was called the petro dollar. And then they would take other dollars, their surplus. And instead of repatriating at home, they would have to then convert that money into RMB and brought it home. They didn't do that. That actually would have increased the value of their currency, thereby making their export less attractive. This is why they're accused of currency manipulation. They took their surplus dollars and bought US assets, mainly US treasuries.
全球经济的运作方式是中国向美国销售商品，中国拥有巨大的贸易顺差。然后他们会拿这些美元的一部分去购买能源等原材料，这被称为石油美元。然后他们会拿赚到的其他美元，不是将其汇回国内，而是将其兑换成人民币并带回国内。他们没有这么做，这实际上会提高他们货币的价值，从而使他们的出口失去吸引力。这就是为什么他们被指控操纵货币。他们将剩余的美元用于购买美国资产，主要是美国国债。

So we had this trading relationship with China. I think everyone understands the physical world side of that trading relationship where you had US manufacturing jobs got exports of China. They basically made everything. A lot of cheap goods came into the US. They had a trade surplus. What I think people don't understand is that a huge part of that trade surplus was used to finance US deficits and debt. And so you had this cozy relationship between US elites, US politicians and China where they got to rack up these huge deficits.
我们与中国有这样的贸易关系。我想每个人都了解这种贸易关系的物理世界方面，即美国制造业的工作得到了来自中国的出口。他们基本上制造了一切。许多廉价商品进入了美国。他们有贸易顺差。我认为人们不理解的是，这种贸易顺差的巨大部分被用来融资美国的赤字和债务。因此，美国的精英、政治家和中国之间有着亲密的关系，他们得以积累巨额的赤字。

The government got to spend a lot of money and China would fund it very cheaply. But now that's all ended. That stopped because we're basically starting to decouple from China. So China doesn't want to do its business and dollars if they don't have to. Obviously, for the products they sell at the US, they'll take dollars. But they're already trying to do as many transactions as they can buying oil, for example, or energy in RMB.
政府一直在大量支出，而中国提供的资金非常便宜。但现在这一切都停止了。这是因为我们基本上正在与中国分离。因此，如果不必要，中国就不想进行业务和美元交易。显然，对于在美国销售的产品，他们会接受美元。但他们已经试图尽可能进行更多交易，例如用人民币购买石油或能源。

I don't want to dispute this chart because this chart is true. But it's a small part of how the entire puzzle works. And so this is a Bitcoin maximalist who cherry picks a few data points to try to make a point. But if you look at the IMF data and I put it to you in the group chat, you can't just look at US Treasury securities. You have to look at actual absolute dollar reserves. And when you look at that over time, it hasn't fluctuated that much. And so for all the dopes that don't understand how this shit works, it's not just securities. It's actually also money. And the actual amount of US dollar money hasn't changed that much. Gone between 60 and 70%. It's just 99 in the chart.
我不想质疑这张表，因为这张表是真实的。但它只是整个问题的一个小部分。因此，这是一个比特币极端主义者挑选几个数据点试图阐述观点的例子。但如果你看看IMF的数据，我在群聊中也分享了这个数据，你不能只看美国国债。你还必须看实际的绝对美元储备。当你看到它随时间的变化，它并没有变化很多。所以，对于所有那些不了解这个东西是如何工作的白痴，它并不仅仅是证券。它实际上还涉及货币。美元实际货币数量并没有变化很多，一直在60%到70%之间，只是这张图中显示了99%。

I just find this argument again, one of these long Sigma arguments that are anxiety riddled. And I just don't want to waste my time thinking about it because it'll distract me from winning on the field today. You got to be able to block things out if you want to be a capital advocate or a great, but an interesting discussion nonetheless.
我刚刚又看到了这个争论，一个充满焦虑的长时间Sigma论点。但我不想浪费时间去想它，因为这会分散我的注意力，打扰我今天在场上胜利的机会。如果你想成为一个资本倡议者或伟大的人，就必须能够屏蔽掉这些事情，但这仍然是一个有趣的讨论。

I don't think these things are just noise. I think you're seeing a trend. I mean, look how many headlines there are about the BRICS countries getting together and starting to transact in currencies other than dollars.
我认为这些事情不仅仅是噪音。我认为你看到了一种趋势。我的意思是，看看有多少关于金砖国家聚集并开始用非美元货币进行交易的头条新闻。

Yeah. You know what? I mean, you said before you don't trust the press. So you trust the press on these headlines all of a sudden. I don't think that that's actually I don't think anyone's disputing the fact that China and Saudi Arabia and China and Brazil are doing energy transactions in RMB. I think it's very tiny. They're doing putting all their money to venture capital in the West private equity in the rest real estate in the West, the Middle East. That's where they're there. That's a different issue.
是的，你知道吗？我的意思是，你之前说过你不相信媒体。所以你突然相信媒体这些标题了。我不认为有人会质疑中国、沙特阿拉伯和巴西正在使用人民币进行能源交易这个事实。但这只是很小的一部分。他们把大部分资金投入到西方的风险投资、私人股本和房地产等领域。那是完全不同的问题。

There's a different issue. Look, no one is disputing the fact that China and the BRICS countries more generally are trying to create a trading block that is not dependent on the US dollar. I think it's a gradually the same or rattling. It's like the fact that they're trying to just let the US know like, hey, we have other options here and I think it's China just trying to it's China on their heels trying to make deals with other folks. China pursuing their self interest, which is not to be dependent on a dollar that's been weaponized and controlled by the US political.
有一个不同的问题。看，在这个问题上没有人会对中国和金砖国家更普遍地试图创造一个不依赖美元的贸易区进行争论。我认为这是逐渐变得相同或者有点不安。就像他们试图让美国知道，嘿，我们还有其他的选择，而我认为这是中国试图在追赶其他人。中国正在追求他们的自身利益，这意味着不依赖美国政治所武器化和控制的美元。

You can be sure that Saudi UAE and the entire voting block in the Middle East are shipping their money West, not East. I think you have a very accurate assessment of what China wants, but it doesn't mean it's going to happen. I think you have to make a bet. Do you think it's going to happen or not? China is a con. That's not going to happen. The reason I said this before is China is in a demographic time bomb and that will dominate everything else. That is a country that is imploding and there's anti-capitalist.
你可以肯定的是，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和整个中东的投票区都在向西方输送他们的资金，而不是向东方。我认为你对中国想要什么有很准确的评估，但这并不意味着它会发生。我认为你必须打赌。你认为会发生还是不会发生？中国是一个骗局。这不可能发生。我之前说这句话的原因是因为中国面临人口时限炸弹，这将主导其他一切。那是一个正在崩溃的反资本主义国家。

And there's anti-capitalist. They're anti-capitalism. No, no, no. I'm going to say that they are capitalist. I'm not going to make these judgments, but I'm going to tell you practically speaking as they are demographically imploding. They do not have enough people. The country will be halved by the death rate and the lack of birth rate by 2300. Okay. So in another 70 odd years, that is a problem that is going away and that is just mathematical. And if you just again, you just have to take a deep breath, look at the data and just extrapolate and you see this is not a problem.
有些人是反资本主义者。他们反对资本主义。但是，实际上，我要说他们其实是资本主义者。我不打算做出这些判断，但是人口统计数据表明他们正在遭受人口减少的危机。到 2300 年，他们的人口将因死亡率和出生率的下降而减半。好的，在另外 70 多年内，这个问题将会逐渐消失，这只是一种数学问题。如果您深呼吸、查看数据并加以推断，您会发现这不是一个问题。

China has real problems. There's no question about it. They've got demographic problems. They've got problems in the banking system. They've got a real estate bubble. They've got problems. There are questions about whether the leadership now is turning away from the capitalism that got them to this point. They are. So there's no question that China has problems, but you want to talk about trends. There is a major trend in the world right now where, again, the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Korea, and you can put Saudi Arabia in that bucket and a lot of other countries, they are looking to diversify off of the dollar.
中国面临着真正的问题，这是毫无疑问的。他们面临着人口问题、银行系统问题、房地产泡沫问题等多种问题。现在的领导人是否正在远离让他们走到这一步的资本主义也存在疑问。所以毫无疑问，中国有问题，但是现在讨论趋势。目前世界上存在一个主要趋势，即金砖国家——巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、韩国，你还可以把沙特阿拉伯和许多其他国家归入这个范畴，他们正在寻求多元化，远离美元。

I'm not saying that the dollar is going to stop being the world's reserve currency because I agree with you that there's no ready replacement at hand, but they are trying to do as many transactions as they can off of the dollar. And they do not want to hold treasuries like they did 10 or 15 years ago. I don't see data that confirm the transactions off the dollar. That's a very loaded statement. I don't think that's true. That statement is true. What are you talking about? This was like major.
我不是说美元会停止成为世界储备货币，因为我同意你所说的没有现成的替代品，但他们正在尽可能地避免使用美元进行交易。而且他们不想像10或15年前那样持有国债。我没有看到数据证实不使用美元交易。这是一个非常引人注目的声明。我不认为这是真的。这个声明是正确的。你在说什么？这是一件大事。

No, they tried to do one trade. China and Saudi and China and Brazil are. No, Saudi and China talked about it and they didn't do it. They talked about it. Yeah, I would like to see data on that, not just a couple of headlines because I think everybody wants to. No, I'm just trying to talk about. What are you talking about? Give us the data. The Brazil thing happened, but I think it was a small trade, David. Yeah. That's what. Yeah.
不，他们试图进行一次交易。中国和沙特，以及中国和巴西之间都进行了尝试。不，沙特和中国只是进行了讨论，但最终并未达成交易。他们只是进行了谈论。是的，我希望看到一些数据，而不仅仅是一些标题，因为我认为每个人都希望如此。不，我只是试图谈论一下。你在说什么？请给我们提供数据。巴西的事情确实发生了，但我认为那只是一次小的交易，David。是的。那就是。

No, I'm saying the Saudi Arabia, China thing did not happen. Your statement was they're trying to talk many transactions as possible off the dollar. I don't think they're trying to do as many transactions off the dollar. I don't have never seen any actual data. You don't know. Support. You're just making shit up. No, you're trusting. You want to get off the dollar. Of course they want to get off the dollar if they can't.
不，我是说沙特阿拉伯和中国的事情没有发生。你的说法是他们试图尽可能多地将交易转移到美元之外。我不认为他们试图尽可能多地将交易转移到美元之外。我从未看到任何实际数据。你不知道。这是胡说八道。不，你是信任。你想摆脱美元。当然，如果他们不能摆脱美元，他们肯定会想办法。

No, no, I think Jason saying you're right, what they want to do, but what they are doing. China is what he's debating. They're trying. They're sending their money west. I don't think they're trying to send it east. I don't think that's even- No, no, hold on a second. You're right that Saudi Arabia is investing in the US. They're, I'd say, highly diversified. That's a little different than what China is doing. Yes, we're in agreement. China wants to get people off the US dollar. China's in decline. China's got big issues. We all agree on that.
不，我认为Jason说的是你是对的，即他们想要做什么，但他们正在做什么。他正在辩论中国。他们正在尝试。他们正在向西方发送他们的钱。我不认为他们试图向东方发送。我认为这甚至都不是-不，不，等一下。你说得对，沙特阿拉伯正在投资美国。他们，我会说，高度分散。这与中国所做的有些不同。是的，我们是有共识的。中国想让人们摆脱美元。中国正在衰落。中国有很大的问题。我们都在同意这一点。

The Middle East has a lot of cash. I think if they're going to decide what to do with it, they'll appease China to have a solid relationship to ship oil there.
中东地区拥有大量的现金。我认为，如果他们要决定用这笔钱做什么，他们将讨好中国，以建立牢固的关系并将石油运往中国。

But I think China's the most- China's the most- China's the most- China's the most- China's the most- And their hearts are in the West. That's where they're going to change- There's been a giant- China's- China's- Michael Realignment.
但我认为中国是最-最-最-最-最-最-最。他们的心在西方。那是他们将要改变的地方-这是一个巨大的-中国的-中国的-迈克尔重新排列。

How much you noticed? I think the realignment is- The Chinese just negotiated it. The Middle East becoming westernized and being accepted in the West and moving towards an investor in the West in technology. That's actually the trend.
你注意到多少了？我认为重组是这样的——中国人刚刚谈判成功。中东正在西方化，被西方接受，并朝着成为西方技术投资者的方向发展。这实际上是趋势。

The Chinese just negotiated or approached mall between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Did you notice that? That's a fine idea, but I'm just talking about where they're putting their chips. Yeah, but these things are all connected.
中国刚刚在沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间进行了谈判或接触，你有注意到吗？这是一个好主意，但我只是在谈论他们将筹码放在哪里。是的，但这些事情都是相互关联的。

Where are they putting their chips? I think what you've explained and I think we're in agreement, they'll sell their oil to China. Then what do they do with the bag? They take that same bag and they want to put it towards the West.
他们把筹码放在哪里？我认为你解释的很清楚，我们都同意，他们将把他们的石油卖给中国。那他们接下来要做什么？他们会拿着同样的筹码，用于向西方投资。

No, no, no, it's even worse. Again, the thing is even if you settle a trade in the yuan, I think you guys keep forgetting this key thing, which is the yuan is pegged to the US dollar. So it is a proxy dollar. So if you really want to decouple, you first have to let this currency free float. They have no desire to let them do that, especially in a moment where they're economically imploding internally. Then you go back to the circular argument where everything goes back to the dollar.
不，不，不，情况甚至更糟。问题在于，即使你在人民币结算一笔交易，你们似乎忘记了一个关键点，即人民币与美元挂钩。因此，它实际上是美元的代理货币。因此，如果你真的想要分离，首先必须让这种货币自由浮动。他们没有想过这么做，特别是在他们经济内部正在崩溃的时候。那么问题回到了循环论证上，一切都回到了美元。

So yes, they're saber rattling sacks. I acknowledge what you're saying. I think you're totally right that they would love a free floating currency.
所以，他们是喜欢耍弄威胁的家伙。我认同你的观点，我认为你完全正确，他们喜欢自由浮动的货币。

The Chinese would love Chinese and they want that free floating currency to not be pegged to the dollar. But right now they have kept it pegged to the dollar. So it says, Google that and it says not. It says, I just Google is you on pegged to USD and it says the Chinese Yuan is not pegged to the US dollar was pegged from 94 to 2005, but in 2005, China made its currency a floating exchange currency.
中国人热爱自己的货币，并希望人民币的汇率能够自由浮动，不再与美元挂钩。但现在他们仍然将人民币挂钩在美元上。如果查一下谷歌会发现并非如此。我刚刚查过，谷歌上写着人民币从1994年到2005年间与美元挂钩，但在2005年，中国将其货币变为浮动汇率制度。

It is not a floating currency. And then do you trust that? Who's right? I think it's highly manipulated. I agree with that, but I don't think it's pegged. It's not a floating currency. It is not a free floating currency. China controls the exchange rate between themselves and the US dollar.
这并不是一种浮动货币。你相信这个吗？谁是对的？我认为这是很受操控的。我同意这个观点，但我不认为这是被挂钩的。这不是一种自由浮动的货币。中国控制他们和美元之间的汇率。 （注：该段话意思是说，中国的货币不是自由浮动的，其汇率是被中国政府控制的，不过不是被挂钩的。）

Let's move on. I think we've covered this. It'd be actually one thing that might be interesting.
让我们继续前进吧。我认为我们已经涵盖了这个问题。单有一件事可能会很有趣。

But just in reality, you have no basis for declaring that things like the moves that China is making with Brazil and Saudi Arabia, you're just declaring that to be fake news. Nobody's saying fake news. We're saying it's happening, but it's probably minor and it's probably more described as say-a-ra-ra. What's your basis for believing that? Because we have no evidence to prove that it's occurring. We just have a couple of headlines and some small, I mean, where is it?
但是在现实中，你没有依据宣称中国与巴西、沙特阿拉伯的贸易行动是假新闻。没有人说它是假新闻。我们只是说这些行动确实存在，但可能是轻微的，可能更应该被描述为说一句口号。你有什么依据来相信这一点呢？因为我们没有证据来证明它正在发生。我们只有一些标题和一些不起眼的东西，它在哪里呢？

I mean, all we're seeing is the money in Saudi Arabia is they're selling oil to China correct. They're doing deals there. Then they're taking that money and then they want to invest it in the West. Who are you talking about? The other thing to keep in mind is that the Saudi real is pegged as well to the US dollar. That's been there since I think the mid-80s.
我的意思是，我们看到的只是沙特阿拉伯卖石油给中国，然后在那里做生意。然后他们拿这些钱想要投资到西方国家。你在谈论谁？另外需要记住的是，沙特阿拉伯的货币也与美元挂钩，这一情况从80年代中期开始就一直存在。

China is a very opaque manipulated currency market where they keep the dollar you want spread quite fixed. On the other side, Saudi has kept the same peg, $3.75 to the dollar since the mid-80s. Again, it all just goes back to the US dollar. It's all proxies for the dollar. There's some symbolic value, I suppose, in trading in yuan. Everything goes back to the dollar because that's what it's measured in. It's not symbolic.
中国是一个非常不透明的操纵货币市场，在这里，他们会让你想要的美元汇率相当稳定。另一方面，沙特自80年代中期以来一直将汇率固定在3.75美元兑一美元。再次强调，这都归结于美元。这一切都是代理人，代表着美元。可能会有一些象征性的价值，我想，在人民币交易中。一切都是以美元为基准，因为它是衡量标准。这不是象征性的。

What's happening is deeply geopolitical. You've got a couple of things going on. One is that the US has now instituted sanctions on over 40 countries. Moreover, the whole world saw that in the case of Russia, we froze their foreign reserves and basically seized the property of their oligarchs. But if you're an oligarch in the Middle East, do you think you want to keep all of your money on all of your reserves in dollars? You understand that the dollar has been weaponized in its political instrument in the United States. That's just a fact.
所发生的事情深层次地关乎地缘政治。有几个因素在产生影响。其中之一是美国对40多个国家实施了制裁。此外，全世界看到，在俄罗斯的情况下，我们冻结了他们的外汇储备并基本上扣押了他们的寡头的财产。但是，如果你是中东的一个寡头，你是否认为想要保留你所有的货币储备？你明白美国政治上把美元当做武器使用的事实。这只是事实。

So you're going to look to diversify. You're going to look to put your money in gold. You're going to look to put your money in other currencies. Is there, like I said, a currency at hand that's ready to be a replacement for the US dollar? No. And it can't be the yuan. They don't have an open capital account. So who would you be? Where would you diversify? If you were the CIO, where would you diversify?
所以你要寻求多元化投资。你会考虑把钱投资在黄金上，也会考虑投资在其他货币上。但有像我先前说的，是否有一种货币准备好取代美元呢？没有，也不能是人民币。因为人民币没有开放资本账户。那你会选择什么呢？你会在哪里进行多元化投资呢？如果你是首席投资官，你会选择哪里进行多元化投资？

What I would do if I were the secretary of the treasury of China is I would say that, okay, for the exports of the US, we're going to keep getting dollars and we'll do something with those dollars. But for everybody else, we're going to try and do as many transactions as R&B as possible. But what about the sellers of oil to China? What would they do? They get R&B. So you would tell us exactly the traits that we're talking about. You tell them to hold R&B over US and Europe.
如果我是中国财政部长，我会说，好的，对于美国的出口，我们会继续获得美元，并用这些美元去做一些事情。但对于其他国家，我们会尽可能多地使用人民币进行交易。但对于向中国销售石油的销售商该怎么办呢？他们会得到人民币。因此，您会告诉他们什么是我们正在谈论的特征。您会告诉他们将人民币存放在美国和欧洲之上。

China is seeking to pay salary rate. We understand that. If you don't, you actually don't understand it. I do understand it. Let me understand. I'm asking you as. Let me explain how it works. Let me ask you a question. Would you ask CIO of Saudi or UAE? Would you want to keep R&B? Would you want to keep euros or US dollars? Where would you want to keep your money? And the question is, if they sell that, would they want to keep it in R&B? I don't think they want to keep the one. Honestly, to answer your question, I want to put it in gold. That's right. I would. I would. I put it in gold.
中国正在寻求支付薪酬。我们理解这个。如果你不理解，你实际上并不理解它。我理解了。让我理解一下。我问你一个问题。你会问沙特阿拉伯或阿联酋的CIO吗？你想保留人民币吗？你想保留欧元还是美元？你会把钱放在哪里？问题是，如果他们卖了那个东西，他们想把它放在人民币里吗？我认为他们不想保持人民币。老实说，回答你的问题，我想把它放在黄金里。没错，我会这么做。

Okay. They're saying to Saudi Arabia and Brazil, we're going to pay you for your oil in R&B. And then you are going to take that R&B and you can buy our products because, again, we make everything we're the factory of the world. And if you still have a surplus after that, you can settle that surplus in gold because Beijing has a very liquid gold exchange market. They're giving them Amazon gift cards. That's what they're proposing. Here's your gift cards. Yeah. Spend it in our factories.
他们的意思是向沙特阿拉伯和巴西表示，我们将以R&B支付你们的石油费用。然后你们可以用这些R&B购买我们的产品，因为我们是世界工厂，生产各种产品。如果你们还有剩余资金，可以用金子来清算，因为北京有一个很流通的黄金交易市场。他们给他们提供亚马逊礼品卡，这是他们的建议。这是你们的礼品卡。是的，在我们的工厂里花费它。

Two data points on this, Saks, that I just read. It's in this Barron's article that I included, Nick. You may just want to link to it in the show notes, which I thought was pretty good. Swift, which is sort of like the international payments backbone. The share of Yuan transactions briefly rose above 3%. In 2022, that was the peak and it's now off 26% down to about 2.2%. So actually, the share of Yuan transactions has actually been shrinking in the last year. And then the second is that what this article states, which is interesting, is that all the Belt and Road loans that China gave into all these developing countries in Africa, the Africans were like, we don't want this Yuan. And so they just dollar swapped. And so now the BRI loans are all serviced in US dollars as well.
我刚刚读到了Saks上的两个数据点，并在这篇我包括的Barron's文章中，Nick。你可能只想在节目注释中链接它，我认为这篇文章相当不错。其中一个是关于国际支付骨干Swift的。人民币交易的份额短暂地上升到了3％以上。在2022年达到峰值，现在下降了26％左右，约为2.2％。因此，实际上，在过去一年中，人民币交易的份额已经在缩小。第二个是这篇文章所陈述的有趣的事实，即中国向非洲所有这些发展中国家提供的所有一带一路贷款地，非洲人说，我们不要这个人民币。因此，他们只是进行美元换汇。因此，现在BRI贷款也都以美元为服务。

So all the trillions of dollars China spent. I'm just saying that again, I'm not. They're on alternative Swift. I mean, again, we weaponized Swift as well. Yeah, but Swift is still 98% of the world of how it works. All I'm saying is I just like to keep things simple.
所以中国花费了数万亿美元，我只是再次强调这一点。他们正在使用另一种备用的SWIFT系统。我是说，我们也把SWIFT武器化了。是的，但SWIFT仍然占世界支付系统的98％。我只想保持事情简单。

I think the US dollars here for a while. I think that debts suck. I would love to have no deficits. But I also think these numbers are roughly like we're playing plus or minus on the margin two to 300 basis points. We talked about that last week. And so I want to keep my brain open to the simple, obvious things like, you know, selling it. That's what it's come to is CPJ for you. Trim off. You're like, it's a down market. I'm a big CPG guy now. Yeah. That's where Trim offs focused. Why don't you pull freeberg into this debate?
我认为美元会在这里停留一段时间。我认为债务是不好的。我很想没有赤字。但我也认为这些数字大约相当于我们在基准点上加减两到三百个基点。我们上周谈论过这个问题。因此，我想保持头脑开放，关注简单明显的事情，比如出售股票。这就是我们现在所面临的情况。裁剪和瘦身。市场在下跌，我现在是一个CPG大师。是的，这就是Trimoffs的焦点。为什么不把Freberg拉入这场辩论呢？

I have one more point to do. I'm a doctor. Do go ahead, doctor. I'm just a doctor. Do you want to talk to reality or at least I try to be? I don't know. Like there was a deal, you know, China had a big visit with Brazil in March. We talked about it briefly. I shared a couple of these articles that covered the transactions. They signed $10 billion of trade agreements and cooperative agreements, all of which were meant to settle in Yuan. Brazil's kind of made the statement that they're going to start to settle in local currency. And they're doing this multilateral trade program globally with partners where they're going to trade and transact in local currencies. They're not set to the dollar. They're not fixed to the dollar.
我有一个额外的观点。我是一名医生。医生，请说吧。我只是一名医生。你想和现实说话，或者至少我试着这样做吗？我不知道。就像有个交易一样，你知道，中国在三月份与巴西有了一次重大访问。我们简要谈到过这件事。我分享了一些报道这些交易的文章。他们签署了价值100亿美元的贸易协议和合作协议，所有协议都以人民币结算。巴西已经宣布了他们将开始使用本地货币结算。他们正在与全球各个合作伙伴进行多边贸易项目，在当地货币中进行交易和交易。他们没有以美元为基础。他们没有与美元固定。

And I think that's just part of a general movement. I don't think it's about, hey, we got to get off the dollar as soon as possible, but I think it's about we could diversify. And there are other stable economies around the world. They might be having demographic issues or various economic issues. But gosh, man, don't we all? Europe, China, the US. It's got debt problems, demographic problems, over leverage problems, growth problems. And fundamentally, I don't think that there's as safe a haven as there has been historically.
我认为这只是整个趋势的一部分。我不认为这是关于我们必须尽快脱离美元的问题，而是关于我们可以多元化的问题。全世界还有其他稳定的经济体。他们可能面临人口问题或各种经济问题。但是，天哪，我们大家都有这样那样的问题，欧洲、中国和美国，它们都存在债务问题、人口问题、过度杠杆问题和增长问题。从根本上讲，我认为没有像历史上那样安全的避风港。

And as a result, I mean, a lot of these governments and a lot of the business leaders in these countries are very much open to doing transactions in multiple currencies. And that's the beginning of the end. It's the beginning of a set of transactions that isn't about, hey, we're all getting against the dollar. It's over. Let's crush the dollar. It's like, we're just going to do trades in other currencies. No big deal. The end. Dr. Do.
因此，许多政府和企业领袖非常愿意进行多种货币的交易。这标志着事情的开始。这些交易并不是为了击垮美元，而是在其他货币中进行交易，非常普通。结束了。

All right. Shout out. It's just the end of the dominance, right? It's the end of every trade. We're talking about the end of the dominance and China imploded during that same time period. So I forgive me. I still believe in American exceptionalism. American exceptionalism wins.
好的。喊出来吧。这只是统治结束的结果，对吗？每个贸易都结束了。我们正在谈论统治结束，而中国也在同一时期内陷入了危机。所以请原谅我，我仍然相信美国的特殊性。美国的特殊性获胜了。

There's another article from Bloomberg. This is from April 24th. All of a sudden this guy loves the mainstream. Rick's draws membership bids from 19 nations for something. Listen, Jake, I'm fine. If you want to say this is fake news, go for it. Are you saying it's fake news? It just funny how they like believe it's fake news. I know. I need information about the world. When they write an article about me, that's completely made up. I'm going to call it fake news. Why are you treating every press article is the same. That makes no sense.
这是Bloomberg的另一篇文章，发表于4月24日。这个家伙突然喜欢主流媒体了。Rick的计划已经吸引了来自19个国家的会员竞标。听着，杰克，我没事。如果你觉得这是假新闻，可以去说。你是在说这是假新闻吗？他们信以为真这都有点滑稽。我需要了解世界上的信息。如果他们捏造一篇关于我的文章，那我就称之为假新闻。为什么你把每篇新闻都看成相同的呢？这毫无意义。

By the way, it does make sense for the BRICS to expand, right, Saks? Because it's like, if NATO was purely an economic organization, that's probably what BRICS evolves into over time. And it makes a ton of sense for them to do it. They're creating a competing China. They're setting up an alternative to the IMF. They've got this alternative to the IMF that they're setting up that's not dollar denominated. And they've got seven nations in this thing now.
顺便问一下，BRICS扩张是有意义的，对吧，Saks？因为这就像是，如果北约纯粹是一个经济组织，那么随着时间的推移，BRICS可能会发展成为这样的组织。他们正在创造一个竞争的中国。他们正在建立一个替代IMF的选择。他们已经有了这个不以美元计价的IMF替代品，并且现在这个组织已经有七个国家。

And by the way, Jason, when I say the beginning of the end, I don't mean the end of the world or the end of the US. The US will continue to be the innovation hub of the world. The US will continue to have freedom and civil rights that no other country can parallel. The US is an incredible place to live better than anywhere else on earth. But the economic status of the US, given how we have spent money and how we continue to operate our federal government with this extraordinary deficit and debt spiral problem, means that other people have to be protective of their currencies and their assets in a way that's thoughtful.
顺便说一下，杰森，当我说“末日的开始”时，我并不是指世界的末日或美国的末日。美国将继续成为世界创新中心。美国将继续拥有没有其他国家可以匹敌的自由和公民权利。美国是一个比地球上任何其他地方都更好生活的地方。但是，考虑到我们如何花钱以及我们如何继续在联邦政府中运作，我们面临着巨额的赤字和债务困境，这意味着其他人必须以周到的方式保护自己的货币和资产。

It doesn't necessarily mean it's all over and everything. But the dominance you said beginning with has had economically. You could already see this in all the trade barriers and tariffs that are going up, the decoupling that's going on. Look, the United States set up a system of global free trade basically in 1945. And we had a bipolar world with, we have the Soviets in America, but the Soviets basically opted out because they were communist. They had their own system, but it wasn't a compelling part of the world economy. Then we had the unipolar world. So basically for over half a century, we had this completely open system where there were no trade blocks in the world. Now we are seeing the rise of trade blocks with multipolarity.
这并不意味着一切都结束了。但是，你所说的开始占主导地位的经济实力已经开始显现。你已经可以在各种贸易壁垒和关税上看到这一点，以及正在进行的脱钩。看，美国基本上在1945年建立了一个全球自由贸易体系。我们有一个双极世界，苏联和美国，但苏联基本上退出了，因为他们是共产主义者，他们有自己的系统，但它不是世界经济的有力部分。然后我们有了单极世界。因此，在半个多世纪的时间里，我们拥有了完全开放的系统，在世界上没有贸易障碍。现在我们看到了多极性的贸易集团的崛起。

Yes. The US is pursuing a contradictory policy because on the one hand, hold on, here's the contradiction. On the one hand, we run these massive deficits and debts. So we are a debtor nation who needs to make its debt attractive to debt holders or our interest rates are going to keep going up. Okay. So that's on the one hand. On the other hand, we are doing things like weaponizing the dollar and weaponizing swift and imposing sanctions and engaging in geopolitical fights that are highly antagonistic to the nations that are our would be holders of our debt.
是的，美国正在实行一种矛盾的政策，因为一方面，我们进行大规模的赤字和债务。因此我们是一个债务国家，需要让我们的债务对债权人具有吸引力，否则我们的利率将继续上升。这是一方面。另一方面，我们正在像武器化美元和武器化SWIFT、实施制裁和进行高度对抗性的地缘政治斗争，这些斗争高度敌视着那些本应成为我们债务持有人的国家。

So one of those two things has got to give. Either we reduce our debt and our deficits and the need, remember, we're not, this is not a stable situation. We continue to issue what is it? Somewhere between one and two trillion a year of new government debt. So we have to constantly find more and more money in the world to support our debt at the same time that we're weaponizing the dollar in the financial system so that these sources of global capital don't want to participate.
因此，必须有一件事得放弃，我们要么减少债务和赤字，因为记住，这不是一个稳定的局面。我们持续发行多少呢？每年新的政府债务在1到2万亿之间。因此，我们必须不断在世界上寻找更多的资金来支持我们的债务，并且同时将美元武器化于金融系统，以便这些全球资本来源不愿意参与。

And I agree with Saks. This is why I think the disappointment to me is that there isn't bipartisan recognition of this being as severe as a war. It is the sort of thing that the government that both parties need to get behind and say, let's figure out a path to solving this problem. This is the objective. We've got to get our fiscal affairs in order. And then all the other stuff, the social stuff, the policy stuff, we can fight about, we can argue about later, but we have to put some gas in the tank. We have to be able to drive where we want to go and we can't drive right now.
我同意Saks的观点。我认为令我失望的是没有两党认识到这与战争一样严重。这是两党政府需要共同努力的问题，让我们找到一个解决问题的路径。这是我们的目标。我们必须整顿我们的财务事务。然后，所有其他的事情，社会问题，政策问题，我们可以稍后争论，但我们必须加油了。我们必须能够驾驶我们想要去的地方，而现在我们却无法驾驶。

Here's what I'll say to you, Friedberg, since you said the beginning of the. Now, maybe it's a poor choice of words. It's not the end. You said, hold on. Let me just do. You just say the beginning of the end. Yeah. But but don't miss carry. The end of what end of the. The end of the dollar dominance in global trade. Okay.
弗里德伯格，我要对你说的话，因为你说了“结束的开始”这个词。也许这不是很恰当的用词，它并不是指结束。你说，“等一下，让我来说说。”你只是说了“结束的开始”。没错，但是不要误解这是什么结束。它指的是美元在全球贸易中的主导地位的结束。好吧。

I disagree with you. I think dollar dominance will continue for some time.
我不同意你的观点。我认为美元的主导地位将会持续一段时间。

J. Are you just speeding that the world is becoming more multipolar? Do you think we're still living in unipolarity?
J.你认为世界正在变得更加多极化吗？你认为我们还是生活在单极性的世界中吗？ （注：此句翻译根据原文理解，如有不妥之处请谅解）

No, and Nord, do we need to live in unipolarity for America to still be the champions? We still aren't winning.
我们需要美国仍然成为冠军，就必须生活在单极化的情况下吗？但我们仍然没有获胜。

How to pace that nobody else is. Space winning. We're going to win cars, AI. We're probably going to win chips and we're going to probably win material science and batteries and we're obviously going to win biota. We're winning in every one of these categories. We're the clear winner.
如何前进不被其他人超越，获得领先地位。我们将赢得汽车、人工智能。我们可能会赢得芯片，还可能会在材料科学、电池和生物技术方面取得胜利。我们在所有这些领域都取得了胜利，是明显的赢家。

The only thing we're not the clear winner in is factories and mass producing schlocky stuff that's sold in Amazon. China is completely imploded and the Middle East is taking their last 20 or 30 years of capital and they're investing it in the West in space energy cars. Chips, basic materials, batteries, all the stuff that's happening here on our shores.
我们唯一没有在工厂和大规模生产Amazon上销售的垃圾产品方面成为明显的赢家。中国已经完全崩溃，中东正在将他们过去20或30年的资本投资于西方的太空能源汽车。芯片，基础材料，电池，所有这些正在我们这里发生。

We are in the most winning position. We've probably ever been in as a country. We took a bad beat. We spent too much money. We got a dysfunctional government.
我们目前处于最有可能获胜的位置，这也是我们国家历史上最好的时刻。我们受到了惨败。我们花费了太多的钱，政府也出现了功能失调的情况。

We got culture wars. We got a lot of bad stuff distracting us. But the truth is when you look at brass tacks, when you look at innovation, we're winning on almost every dimension. We're just a little caught up in the fog of culture wars and thinking that we're going to be dominant and perfect in terms of our budget.
我们陷入了文化战争和许多干扰我们的不良事物。但事实上，在看到创新时，几乎每个方面我们都处于领先地位。我们只是有点被文化战争的迷雾所困扰，认为我们在预算方面会占主导地位并且完美无缺。

We do have to fix our budget. We all agree on that. But we are winning and China is currently stalled out. It's because of freedom. It's because we support entrepreneurs because of the basic human freedoms we have.
我们确实需要修整我们的预算。我们都意识到了这点。但是我们正在获得胜利，而中国目前却陷入了停滞。这是因为自由。我们支持企业家们，这是因为我们拥有基本的人类自由。

You two guys are Dr. Doom. This is so stupid. I'm hopping off. I'm done with this. Just strike my shit out of this episode. I'm trying whatever you want.
你俩就像“毁灭博士”一样，太愚蠢了。我要下车了，我受够了。这一集请把我的东西删去吧。我会任你们想怎么做。

Is there anything else you want to talk about today? This is going to be done. I'd love to talk about Nvidia, but I don't know if you guys like I'm sick of being characterized as Dr. Doom J Cal.
今天你还想讨论其他问题吗？这个问题就要处理完了。我很想谈谈Nvidia，但是我不知道你们是否认为我老是扮演厄运博士J Cal的角色已经很烦了。

It's fucking stupid. It's like we want to have a real conversation about real conversation instead of your extreme like what I said. I'm not talking extreme. I'm not I'm trying to have like an actual discipline conversation about where things are going. Responding and why it's not about oh my god. The US is going to win. Everyone is going to lose.
这太他妈愚蠢了。我们好像想要就真正的对话而言，而不是像你所说的极端。我不是在说极端的话。我是想有一个真正的有条理的对话，讨论事情发展的方向和回应的原因。这不是关于美国赢了，所有人都输了的问题。

It's not a win-lose situation. We cannot afford to continue to spend the way we're spending with our federal government. That's it.
这不是赢输的局面。我们不能再继续用我们的联邦政府以现在的方式开支了。就是这样。

I agree with that. We have to decide the problem winning on that. So why are we winning? It's not the conversation. Why is the federal government is different from US innovation. There's a difference. The federal government. These are the voters.
我同意这个观点。我们必须决定这个问题如何获胜。那么我们为什么能获胜呢？不是因为谈话。联邦政府为什么不同于美国的创新。它们之间有区别。联邦政府是选民投票产生的。

We're voters elect to tax and spend and voters elect people to create a system that can legally go in and take assets and spend assets and borrow money. And we've done it in an extent now that is becoming almost a runaway train. It is a problem. We saw the negative red chart that sacks had you pull up several times that has nothing to do with US dominance and fucking electronics and chips and biotech and all this other sort of stuff.
我们作为选民，选举税收和支出的方式，选举人们去创建一个合法的系统，可以进入并拿走资产、花费资产和借款。我们现在已经做到了一个几乎失控的程度，这是一个问题。我们看到了萨克斯研究报告中那张负面的红色图表，它与美国的主宰地位、电子、芯片和生物技术等其他方面没有任何关系。

We have a problem with how we spend money at the federal level. I agree with that. I agree with that. That's the conversation. But I believe that the dominance that we have in entrepreneurship and every one of these categories is what will pull us out of this. The free enterprise system is a wonderful system that produces a lot of good prosperity for America.
我们在联邦层面上的资金支出存在问题。我同意这一点。这就是我们讨论的内容。但是，我相信我们在创业和每个领域中的优势将帮助我们走出这个困境。自由企业系统是一个Wonderful的系统，为美国创造了许多繁荣。

Okay, that's great. I agree with that. And it remains to be seen if China can sustain its remarkable economic growth that's had over the last few decades. So that remains to be seen.
好的，那很棒。我同意这个观点。而中国能否继续保持过去几十年来取得的出色经济增长，还有待观察。这个还有待看到。

However, the United States is behaving like a late stage empire. And that is separate from the system that got us here. We have unsustainable fiscal deficits. We spend way too much money that we don't have. We have a uncontrolled southern border. Our cities are in decline. We've got hundreds of thousands of people living on the streets. Have you seen it?
然而，美国的行为方式像一个晚期帝国。这与我们所处的制度是分开的。我们有不可持续的财政赤字。我们花太多的钱，而我们没有那么多钱。我们的南部边境失去了控制。我们的城市正在衰退。我们有成千上万的人生活在街头。你看到了吗？

We look like a third world country. There's three or four countries. Three or four cities. We are all we are meddling in countries all over the world engaging in wars or proxy wars. We are behaving like a late stage empire.
我们看起来像是一个第三世界国家。有三到四个国家。三到四个城市。我们正在干预全世界各地的国家，参与战争或代理战争。我们的行为像是一个后期帝国。

So Jake Cal, it's true that the United States has a wonderful system. And that's what got us here. It got us to unipolarity where we were the world's only superpower. But now we're in a world in which other countries are rising to. It's more multipolar. Agreed.
杰克•卡尔，美国确实有一个出色的系统，这就是让我们成为现在这个样子的原因。这个系统使我们成为了世界上唯一的超级大国。但是现在，我们生活在一个其他国家也在崛起的多极世界里。同意这个观点。

And whether we continue, our dominance will depend on whether we make the right decisions right now. And right now we are not making the right decisions. Adding too truly into the debt in peacetime a year makes no sense.
我们是否继续保持主导地位，取决于我们现在是否做出正确的决策。但现在我们所做出的决策并不明智。在和平时期让负债真正增加一年是毫无意义的。

Yeah. Your little rant, it's like Wily Coyote going off the cliff and pretending like if he just doesn't look down, there's nothing to worry about. I have said from the beginning, we need to get spending under control. But I am also incredibly enthusiastic about how we're performing in innovation and capitalism right now. It is off the charts how well this country is doing on those dimensions.
没错。你的小怒斥就像是威利-卡约特(Wily Coyote)跳下悬崖，然后假装不往下看，就什么都不用担心。从一开始我就说过，我们需要控制开支。但我也非常热衷于我们在创新和资本主义方面的表现。目前这个国家在这些领域的表现非常出色。

Tromoth, do you have any thoughts while we wrap up the thing? No, I think we ended up conflating a bunch of issues into one. I'll just say what I've said before, which is that the United States is kind of the simplest, safest bet and that these decisions are made on a relative basis.
Tromoth，在我们结束的时候，你有什么想法吗？ 不，我认为我们把一堆问题混合到了一起。我会再次说出我之前说过的话，即美国是最简单、最安全的选择，这些决定是相对的。

China. Unfortunately, for them has a huge demographic problem that will diminish them economically and you're already starting to see it, but it's going to get really exacerbated in the next 10 or 15 years. That's just the mathematical reality for a country that has literally zero immigration and no solution. Europe is not in a very great situation. And the only place that's really firing in all cylinders is India, but it has a long way to go to build the infrastructure that can really scale and make it as predictable as United States. Could it do it? I think so, but it's going to take a long time that 50, 60, 100 years of investment.
中国不幸的是，他们面临着一个巨大的人口问题，这将使他们在经济上受到打击。你现在已经开始看到一些影响，但在未来的10年或15年中它将会更加严重。这是一个数学上的事实，对于一个几乎没有移民和没有解决方案的国家来说。欧洲的情况也不太好。唯一一个真正火力全开的地方是印度，但是它需要很长的时间来建设能够真正扩大规模并且使它像美国一样可预测的基础设施。它能做到吗？我想是的，但需要50、60、100年的投资。

So I don't know. I just kind of like try to simplify for myself. I think the US will be fine. I think the dollar will be fine. I don't think it's right to spend this much, but I think that politicians are incapable of cutting expenses. And so I would like to cut their revenues. That's it.
我不确定。我只是尽量为自己简化。我认为美国会没事的。我认为美元也会没事。我认为这么多钱不该花，但我认为政治家们无法削减支出。因此，我想削减他们的收入。就这样。

It's a great discussion, Freeburg. I don't think you understand what the audience actually wants to hear. This is actually the core of the debate that we just had. Well, just do what Friedberg asked you, which is just to play his clip and his words and then I'll wrap it up. I have it right here.
这是个非常好的讨论，Freeburg。我认为你不理解听众实际想听的。这实际上是我们刚刚进行的辩论的核心。好吧，就按照Friedberg要求你做的，播放他的片段和他的话，然后我会总结一下。我这里有它。

I think that the Saudi China trade, if this happens and oil is sold in one is the beginning of, I think, the end of the assumption that the US dollars are global reserve. That's all. Yeah. That was your prediction that you said in the beginning of the end, you've said it twice. So if you don't believe it's the beginning of the end, it's fine. Of the US dollar as a global reserve. Yes, you believe that it's the US dollar will not be the global reserve. You said it twice. Yeah. And I disagree. I think that will be will remain the global reserve for all lifetime. That's all. It's a fundamental difference.
我认为，如果沙特和中国的贸易成交并且石油只以其中一个货币出售，这将是“美元作为全球储备货币”的结束。就是这样。是的，这是你之前说的一个预测，你说过两次，是“美元结束的开始”。如果你不相信这是开始了，那也没有关系。对于美元作为全球储备货币，你相信它不会再继续，你说了两次。是的。但是我不同意。我认为美元将一直是全球储备货币。这是一个根本性的分歧。

Let's move on. Yes.
让我们继续前进。是的。

I'm reticent to bring up the cultural wars, but these have become prominent. So maybe we could have a meta discussion about these. There are three things going on. One, we touched on the book banning. I'm using air quotes there. And there's been a lot of feedback that's come in since then just to follow up briefly on it. Books are not exactly being banned. It's a much more granular and nuanced issue.
我不太想提起文化战争，但是这已经成为一个突出的问题。也许我们可以就此进行元讨论。目前有三件事情正在发生。首先，我们提到了书籍禁止。这里用了引号。自那时以来，收到了很多反馈，简要总结一下。并没有完全禁止书籍。这是一个更加细致和微妙的问题。

There was a bill 1467 that happened that Ron DeSantis did sign. This said that parents reasonably should get to see what's being put into classrooms. And as you might suspect, this is being done at a very local level. When you put all that control at the local level, you will have different constituents, banned books that maybe shouldn't be. Some of them are obvious ones that were too graphic that I think most parents would agree shouldn't be in a school library.
有一项名为1467号的法案已被罗恩·德桑蒂斯签署。这项法案规定，家长有权合理地了解学校教学内容。正如你所猜测的那样，这是在非常地方的层面上实施的。当你把所有的控制权都拱手交给地方政府，你会看到不同的居民会禁掉一些书籍，这可能是不应该的。其中一些书籍太过直白，我认为大多数家长都会认为这些书籍不应该出现在学校图书馆中。

Other ones were horror books or young adult books. You can look at all this stuff, just search for pen banned books report, pen America. And if you, there are instances of books that shouldn't be banned, being banned and instances of books that we'd all agree on, but it is not exactly book banning. It's letting each of the school districts make their own decisions and they're not going to make perfect decisions when you put them out in the edges.
其他书籍包括恐怖小说或青少年读物。你可以查看所有这些，只需搜索“pen banned books report, pen America”。有一些书被禁止，但它们本不应该被禁止，还有一些书我们都同意禁止，但这并不是真正的书籍禁止。这只是让每个学区做出自己的决定，当你将它们置于边缘时，他们不会做出完美的决策。

So just to make that super clear. I think you're right to focus on the terminology here because this is a question of what is put in the school library. That's it. So that's not a ban. Right. A ban would be if you couldn't purchase the book for yourself or your kids, any parent can buy any book they want in Florida.
为了让这个问题更加清晰明确。我认为你在关注术语方面是正确的，因为这是关于学校图书馆收录什么书籍的问题。就这而言，并没有禁令。对，禁令是指任何家长都不能在佛罗里达州购买这本书或给孩子购买这本书。

We do have an issue, I think, with the curriculum where really important classic books are being removed from the curriculum for political reasons. I think in California, books like Tequila Mockingbird or Huck Finn, they're being removed because they're being accused of being racist, even though the whole point of those books is to, I think, call it out and teach kids about racism.
我认为，我们在课程上确实存在一个问题，很重要的经典书被因政治原因从课程中删除。在加州，像《杀死一只知更鸟》或《哈克贝利·费恩历险记》这样的书被指控是种族主义的，因此被删除，尽管这些书的整个目的是为了揭露种族主义并教导孩子们。

So there's a lot of stupid things happening from the left in terms of removing books from the curriculum, which I think is a much bigger deal than removing books from a school library. There's also things happening with Ian Fleming's James Bond books being rewritten posthumously because two sex is sexism or Raw Dolls books are being posthumously edited. So books are literally being rewritten in a way that their authors never intended. That is positively Orwellian. That really is. That's really wrong. That's really wrong. That's really wrong.
在左派方面，很多愚蠢的事情正在发生，比如从课程中移除书籍，这比从学校图书馆中移除书籍更加重要。还有一些事情正在发生，伊恩·弗莱明的詹姆斯·邦德系列被追溯改写，因为两性歧视或者罗尔德·达尔的书被追溯编辑。这就是书籍实际上以其作者从未打算的方式被改写。这是极像奥威尔的。这真的错了。这真的错了。这真的错了。

Now on this on this the Santa's thing, I mean, look, this is this is going to be a point to the level now of being a hoax. One of the stories going around is that there was this book of poetry, this totally innocuous book of poetry that was being banned in Florida. And I wanted to find out that. Yeah. So I wanted to find out the truth of it. Well, as it turns out, like you said, J Cal, this is in Miami D school district. A decision was made. This is not by DeSantis. This is made at the level of individual schools, okay, which are voted on and their parents on these school boards. So it's going to just follow the demographics and whatever that local community is. Right.
现在关于圣诞老人的事情，我的意思是，看，这可能会变成一个谎言的程度。有一个传言是，佛罗里达州有一本无害的诗集被禁止出版。我想找出真相。事实是，正如你说的J Cal，这是在迈阿密D学区决定的，而不是DeSantis做出的。这是由个别学校在投票时做出的决定，他们的家长在这些学校董事会上投票。所以它只会遵循当地社区的人口统计和观点。

So basically what happened is this book of poetry was literally moved from the elementary school library to the middle school library. That's what happened. But all of a sudden this was spun on social media and by the mainstream media as if the Santa said banned this book of poetry to the point where Miami Dade school district had to put out a tweet correcting this. So never banned or removed. It was just moved from one library to another from the.
基本上，所发生的事情就是这本诗集从小学图书馆被实际上转移到了中学图书馆。这就是所发生的事情。但突然之间，社交媒体和主流媒体上都把这个事情解读为圣诞老人禁止了这本诗集，以至于迈阿密戴德县学区不得不发布一条推文进行更正。所以这本书从来没有被禁止或移除，只是从一个图书馆转移到了另一个图书馆而已。

So really, I think this is a super interesting point, David, where you and I are in agreement. You and I are both for freedom of speech and we're big advocates of that. And then there are decisions and you could reasonably make this decision. Hey, let the parents decide. Great. When you let the parents decide, you have to take into account that these school boards could be hijacked by different groups of people or they could be very small monocultures of you know, little towns or cities. Here's the list, by the way, if anybody wants to look at this, you could actually look at the very granular list, Penn America keeps an index of all these and put the thing in the chat here and you'll see things in left, right, everybody in between some places are banning all the LGBTQ books, some are banning the critical race books or books by people of color. Other ones are banning, you know, the James Bond novels, et cetera. So it's a free for all of parents executing their rights at a very local level. And you know, I guess if you want parents to have a say in their schools, it's going to be slightly imperfect and variable. But it's not like censorship going off, but there is censorship going on, I guess, in some ways.
我认为这是一个非常有趣的观点，David，在这个观点上我们是意见一致的。你和我都支持言论自由，并积极倡导这一点。但是在做决定时，你可以合理地做出这样的决定——让家长决定。很好。但是，当你让家长决定时，你必须考虑到这些学校董事会可能被不同的人群劫持，或者可能是一些小城镇或城市的单一文化。顺便说一下，如果有人想查看这个列表，您可以查看非营利组织Penn America保持的所有这些索引，并在这里将该信息放入聊天室，您将看到左翼、右翼和中间所有人的书被禁止阅读，一些地方禁止所有LGBTQ图书，一些禁止批判性种族图书或有色人种的书籍，其他一些禁止007小说等。所以，家长在当地履行自己的权利，这是一个自由竞争的过程。我想，如果你希望家长在学校中发表意见，这可能会有一些缺陷和差异，但它并不像有人独裁，但在某些方面，确实存在审查。

The political question is, do you allow government bureaucrats to dictate to parents what their kids are going to see or have access to? And I don't think that's viable. I mean, look, parents could take their kids out of the school and homeschool them if they wanted. Yes. So at the end of the day, so they have that right. So why would you deny parents the right to determine what's in the school library? And it does seem like all of this goes by the way, some of these books that have been removed are actually really questionable. Yeah, Lord of the Flies will probably get removed because they don't like somebody being labeled fat piggy.
这个政治问题是，你是否允许政府官员向父母规定他们的孩子看什么或者接触什么内容？我认为这是不可行的。我的意思是，如果父母想要，他们可以把孩子从学校中带走并自己教育孩子。因此，最终结果是，他们有这个权利。那么为什么要剥夺父母决定学校图书馆内容的权利呢？并且看起来，这些被移除的图书中有一些都非常值得质疑。比如，《蝇王》可能会被移除，因为人们不喜欢有人被称为肥猪皮奇。

No, no, no, no, no, I'm saying, right, like there are some great books that were written in an age where you just say things in a certain way that aren't meant to be offensive, but these books are very powerful. And I don't know about you guys, but I had a bunch of books that I read when I was younger that had a huge impact on me. And then the English. I don't want those books getting removed from the curriculum. You're right. Lord of the Flies. Lord of the Flies. Incredible. To kill a mockingbird. Those were all important books that I read as part of the curriculum.
不，不，不，不，不，我的意思是，有些伟大的书是在一种特定的语言环境下写成的，那些方式并不是有意冒犯别人的，但这些书非常有力量。而且我不知道你们，但我在年轻时读过很多书，对我产生了巨大的影响。我不想那些书从课程中被移除。你是对的。《蝇王》。《蝇王》。太不可思议了。《杀死一只知更鸟》。这些都是我在课程中读过的重要书籍。

But all we're talking about it, I think, is this even this very minor issue of what's in the library. Obviously, the parents should get to the side. And some of the things that have been removed from the library are pretty out there. Like for example, there was one book that was educating kids on like how to get a grinder date, which they're not even supposed to be able to do, right? Like grinders for 18 and up. There are other topics that like suicide and harm and other ones. When do you introduce that to a child? Is that something that's third grade or, you know, a suicide discussion? When should that reasonably occur?
我认为我们所讨论的只是图书馆里有什么，这个问题非常微小。显然，父母应该有发言权。其中一些被移除的书籍非常出格，例如，有一本书在教孩子如何约会，而他们甚至还没有资格使用这类应用程序，对吧？约会软件是18岁以上的。还有其他一些涉及自杀、伤害等话题的书籍，应该在何时向孩子介绍？这是一个三年级的话题，还是自杀讨论该在何时合适？

This is a crazy question, but I'll ask it to you guys. I would rather Lord of the Flies be removed from a library than edited because then at least there's a different place where you can get your original book. Oh, for sure. The idea of editing a book is so insane. It's so mind control. Yeah. It's really bad. That idea is very, very bad because you're reading something thinking that this is what the author intended and all of a sudden it's manipulated by some brand-old false expert under some guys that you had no decision making in. That's really bad.
这是一个疯狂的问题，但我还是想问问你们。我更愿意《蝇王》被从图书馆移除，而不是被编辑，因为这样至少还有别的地方可以找到原始的书。对，编辑一本书的想法太疯狂了。这是在进行思想控制。这个想法非常糟糕，因为你正在阅读一些作者所想表达的思想，结果被某些无知的所谓专家操纵，而你没有任何决策权。这非常糟糕。

What's really I think important of this discussion is what's how the press frame something, how politicians frame them and then how they're actually executed on the ground can be very different. So this has become a raw shock test for what caused you back. And when you actually look at this list, you'll see people in California, people in Colorado banning quote unquote banning or just not including certain books and libraries. Its parents having age old debates about when do you introduce certain topics to your kids? That's your job as a parent. What happens in the library is going to be variable.
我认为这次讨论真正重要的是，媒体如何框定某些事情，政治家如何框定，然后实际执行时会有很大的不同。因此，这已经成为了一种原始冲击测试，用于测试您的信仰。当您实际查看这个清单时，您会看到加利福尼亚州和科罗拉多州的人们禁止引用某些书籍或在图书馆中不包括它们。父母们一直在辩论什么时候向孩子介绍某些话题？这是您作为父母的工作。图书馆中会发生什么是可变的。

All right. Nvidia is going for verbal integration. They unveiled their GPU CPU super chip called Grace Hopper after the Navy Admiral, obviously Nvidia Grace GPU is 72 arm, new or version V2 CPU cores, whatever that means. You see you can deliver up to 370 score on a spec crate 2017 in base, whatever that means. I'm sorry, I'm not familiar with all the bench market. I thought cool is the is the peak of humor on the show. Listen, we're talking about Pentium chips. I could have kept up here, but I had kept up with this since then I used. We're talking about the Intel inside Pentium chips. Yes, I could. I did keep up with chips. I'm sorry. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, I, yeah, when we got past gigabit, I stopped.
好的。Nvidia 正在进行口头融合。他们发布了他们的 GPU CPU 超级芯片，名为 Grace Hopper，显然是以海军上将的名字命名的。Nvidia Grace GPU 在72个 ARM、新版或 V2 CPU 内核中运行，不知这是什么意思。你可以在基础上在2017年的规格箱中提供最高达370分的性能，不知这是什么意思。对不起，我不熟悉所有的基准测试。我以为酷是节目上幽默的顶峰。听着，我们正在谈论奔腾芯片。我本来能跟上的，但自从我使用过的那时起，我就没有跟上了。我们正在谈论英特尔的奔腾芯片。是的，我可以。我跟上了芯片。对不起。是的。是啊。是啊。不，我是说，当我们过了吉比特时，我就停了。

I think what's really interesting here is this is a really important moment. We're like that design that Grace Hopper design, which is basically a massive system on chip. It's an entire rig. It's a GPU and CPU and memory and interconnects. This is like them going for the jugular. This is what's crazy in a moment like this. That is basically them trying to create an absolute monopoly because if you have these rigs and these rigs are the most capable for learning and you have their SDK CUDA, which is becoming the de facto software layer now that you use to write to their H100s or Grace Hopper when it's available and the A100s, that could create a level of lock-in that I think people should be thinking about. If you're the hyperscalers like Amazon and Google and Microsoft, what is your reaction to this? If you're Facebook, what is your reaction to this?
我认为这里真正有趣的是，这是一个非常重要的时刻。我们就像Grace Hopper设计的那种设计，它基本上是一个大型的芯片系统。它是一个完整的装备，包括GPU，CPU和内存以及互连。这就像它们在瞄准要害。这时刻疯狂的地方就在于此。这基本上是他们试图创造一个绝对的垄断，因为如果你拥有这些装备，而且这些装备是学习能力最强的装备，并且你有他们的SDK CUDA，这正在成为你编写到他们的H100或Grace Hopper的事实软件层，当它出现时也可用于A100，那可能会造成一种程度的锁定，我认为人们应该考虑这一点。如果你是像亚马逊、谷歌和微软这样的超级规模企业，你的反应会是什么？如果你是Facebook，你的反应会是什么？

I think it's really important because if these guys continue to innovate at this scale, you're not going to have any alternatives. It goes back to what Intel looked like back in the day, which is an absolute straight-up monopoly except the difference is that even when you wrote something to Intel CPUs, you could actually run it on an AMD processor and it would work with no changes. That's not necessarily the same. If you go from an A100 to something else, an FPGA or some other silicon, you have to translate the model. It's very important to understand that there's no extensibility here. If NVIDIA continues to drive this quickly and continues to execute like this, it's a one-and-done, one-company monopoly in AI at the hardware layer. I think that people are probably thinking about how to blunt that competitive outcome, but that's what I took away from that announcement from them, which is like they are ready to go for the jugglier here in what looks like the most important market that's emerged in the last decade.
我认为这非常重要，因为如果这些人继续以这样的规模创新，你就没有其他选择了。这让我们想起了英特尔早期的情况，他们是绝对的垄断，但不同之处在于，即使你把程序写给英特尔的CPU，你也可以在AMD处理器上运行它而不需要任何更改。但这并不是完全相同的。如果你从A100转换到其他处理器，比如FPGA或其他硅片，你必须翻译出模型。理解没有可扩展性是非常重要的。如果NVIDIA继续以这样的速度推动，继续像这样执行，AI的硬件层将成为一个独家垄断。我想人们可能正在考虑如何削弱这种竞争结果，但这是我从他们的公告中得到的结论，他们准备在看起来是过去十年中最重要的市场上展开进攻。

The valuation, Chamath, trading at 200 times or 50 times even though I would have been in the past. The simple thing about price-to-equity ratios is if you take the price-equity ratio and you invert it, that's your implied yield. Price-to-earnings. Price-to-earnings, sorry. You invert it. That's your yield. NVIDIA is yielding at these prices. I think it's somewhere like 2 to 2.5%, which is less than, and it's almost half of a typical two-year bond. When you have a yield that that's low, you have to see it just grow absolutely massively. But there's this principle in capitalism, which is in order to grow like that, you're generating so much profit that competitors look at it and say, hold on, you don't deserve that much profit. I'm going to take some of that. You're a profit's my opportunity. You're a margins my opportunity.
这段话谈论了股票估值和反映其收益率的价格盈利比。Chamath认为，就算之前他会买下价格为200倍甚至50倍的股票，价格盈利比的简单原理在于，将价格盈利比倒置，即可得到股票的暗示收益率。NVIDIA的收益率在这些价格下大约为2%到2.5%，比一般两年期债券的一半还要低。当收益率如此低时，公司必须大规模扩张才能赚取利润。但在资本主义中存在一种理念，一旦一个公司赚取了过多利润，竞争者们会抱怨说，你不应该赚那么多，我来分一杯羹。你的利润就是我的机会，你的利润率就是我的机会。

I think that your margin is my opportunity is exactly what happens. I think what I'm waiting for, Friedberg, is like in the next two quarters, if AMD, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon don't announce something substantive, there's a very good chance that NVIDIA runs away with this. I think that that's very problematic. In that case, that price is cheap.
我认为你的利润是我的机遇，这正是现实情况。我认为我在等待的是，如果AMD、Facebook、Google、Microsoft和Amazon在接下来的两个季度里没有宣布任何实质性的消息，那么NVIDIA很有可能将一锅端。我认为这是非常棘手的。在这种情况下，那个价格就很便宜了。

My bet, though, it's a different version of your bet, but we get to the same outcome, is that I don't think that that's going to happen because it's just too important. I think that everybody other than NVIDIA wants vendor diversity, right? You don't want to get locked into one person, one set of hardware. Or one clob, you know, one SDK. You don't want that. Nobody wants that except NVIDIA and NVIDIA shareholders.
我的押注是，虽然和你的押注版本不同，但我们得到的结果是一样的，我认为那不可能发生，因为它太重要了。我认为，除了NVIDIA之外，每个人都希望有供应商多样性，对吧？你不会希望被锁定在一个人、一套硬件或一个软件开发工具包（SDK）里。除了NVIDIA和NVIDIA的股东之外，没有人希望那样。

My bet is in the next two quarters, you start to see some real action so that folks start to have to balance their forecasts where it's not just a 100% NVIDIA, but it's NVIDIA plus plus plus plus. That's sort of what I would bet because it just seems like logical and right because I'd otherwise it would be pretty derelict of these hyperscalers to just throw their hands in the air and just give the whole market to them. It would be derelict of AMD.
我打赌，在未来两个季度内，你会看到一些真正的行动，以至于人们不仅仅是看到100%的英伟达（NVIDIA），而是英伟达加加加加。我会这样打赌，因为这似乎是合乎逻辑和正确的，否则这些超大规模的企业就会非常懒惰，只是放弃整个市场给英伟达。这会对AMD也是不负责任的。

The other thing that's happening is, you know, AMD is a great memory solution, but they really don't have a deterministic AI chip. I think that Lisa Sue needs to act decisively here and build something, announce something, buy something, but she needs to be really aggressive here. If you look at the language models, a lot of them are taking less and less CPU, GPU to actually build them.
另一件事是，你知道，AMD是一个很好的内存解决方案，但他们真的没有决定性的AI芯片。我认为Lisa Sue需要在这里果断行动，建立一些东西，宣布一些东西，购买一些东西，但她需要在这里非常积极。如果你看一下语言模型，很多模型都需要越来越少的CPU和GPU来构建它们。

So this has been like a bit of a race or a competition on hugging face. I showed the leaderboard on another episode, maybe two episodes ago, but I've been talking to some of the people who are doing these language models to moth and they said there's massive inefficiency. And so, yeah. And by the way, the other thing that Fibrid mentions, J. Cal is also happening, which is like the Fibrid, you talked about the atomization of these models is happening, I think, even faster than when you first brought that up. Yeah. So what took two or three million dollars last year is now taking $200,000 just through software improvements and code improvements.
这就像在 Hugging Face 上进行的一场比赛或竞争。几集之前，我曾展示过排行榜，但我与一些正在开发这些语言模型的人谈过话，他们说效率不高。另外，Fibrid提到的J. Cal也正在进行，就像你所说的，Fibrid，这些模型的原子化正在发生，甚至比你第一次提出时更快。去年需要两三百万美元的东西，现在仅通过软件和代码的改进就可以实现20万美元。

Crazy. And now they're thinking a number of the other thing people are coming to is because of so much, what's the term hallucinations that people are using? Because of the hallucinations, people are making narrower models that are deeper and legal or just, you know, stack overflow, just core or just a vertical and core. They take less GPU, but they get better results because you've constrained the data set and that's resulting in, you know, better outcomes. So I think this could also be where maybe people don't need as much GPU or CPU at the same time.
疯狂的，现在人们认为许多人使用的一个原因是因为幻觉太多了。因为这些幻觉，人们开始将模型设计更加精简，更加垂直、精简，或只有核心。这些模型占用的GPU更少，但结果更好，因为它们限制了数据集，这导致了更好的结果。因此，我认为这也许是人们不需要同时使用太多GPU或CPU的地方。

So many people are going after it. So that could flip where the demand could actually decrease because of software efficiencies or hitting some benchmark that's reasonable enough. What do you think? Fibrid, Berg. Look, I think as performance improves as cost declines like any economic model, there's a pretty nonlinear relationship with demand. So we'll find new ways to apply this technology. I think the demand is only going to go nonlinear.
很多人都在追求这个技术。因此，需求可能会因为软件效率的提升或者达到足够的基准而减少。你认为呢？Fibrid、Berg。我觉得，就像任何经济模型一样，随着性能的提高和成本的降低，需求与之存在着相当非线性的关系。因此，我们会找到新的应用技巧。我认为，需求只会变得更加非线性。

Another thing that's happening is people are starting to build like Mosaic ML. They're building cloud independent models. So you can take the same model, build it on your own proprietary personal cloud, not educate chat, cheapy, too far, not educate, but do it with your own model. And then you can move it for an introduction and fine tuning seems to like get to the point that we can run these things on small machines cheaply, quickly. And it just it'll change the, it'll change the applications.
另一个正在发生的事情是人们开始建立像马赛克ML这样的模型。他们正在建立云独立的模型。因此，您可以使用相同的模型，在您自己的专有个人云上构建它，而不是使用educate chat、cheapy等工具，您可以使用自己的模型完成。然后，您可以进行介绍和微调，从而使得我们可以便宜快速地在小型设备上运行这些东西。这将改变应用的面貌。

You're saying run inference. Cheap. Yeah, not run training. Run inference. That's right. Oh, no. It's not good. Biden just had a big fall on stage at the US Air Force Academy graduation. Oh, no. I don't think he'll be okay. But whoa. It's not like he fell off the stage. He's just trapped.
你是说要进行推理运算，是便宜的吗？是的，不是运行训练，而是运行推理运算。没错。哦，不，情况不太妙。拜登在美国空军学院毕业典礼上大摔一跤。哦，不。我想他不会没事的。但哇，他不是从舞台上摔下来了，只是被困住了。

No, no, he doesn't. Doesn't look good, but it could have broke something. Well, hopefully it's okay. I hope he's okay. Yeah. I mean, we just had this whole talk about it. Yeah. I mean, it's just like. And I think like physical, like these kinds of physical things are, are normal. And I think people need to be much more empathetic about that kind of stuff. I mean, he was riding a bike over the summer last year. I remember. And you look great.
“不，他没有受伤。看起来不太好，但可能是摔了点东西。希望他没事。我希望他没事。对啊，我们刚刚讨论过这个。这很正常，我认为人们应该更有同情心。我想这些身体上的问题，像骑车这种活动是很正常的。我记得去年夏天他还骑了一辆自行车，看起来很不错。”

Yeah. I mean, FDR was in a wheelchair. So I don't care about that. I like care about his mental acuity. Yeah. Me too. Okay. By the way, I want him to be well enough to run because I'm scared of some of the other Democratic candidates they might put up. Same.
是的，我的意思是，罗斯福总统使用轮椅出行。所以我不关心这个。我更关心他的智力清晰度。是的，我也是这样想的。好的，顺便说一句，我希望他能够身体健康地参选，因为我害怕其他可能被提名的民主党候选人。我也是这样想的。

Yeah. Like I don't want to get a president in Newsome or a president in Harris. I mean, I don't think Biden is very good, but I think he's better than Harris or Newsome. Biden drops out who's the lead candidate in your mind. RFK. Really? Wow. I would prefer RFK to Biden. But I think what will happen if Biden drops out is we'll get a flood of establishment Democrat candidates in the race. Newsome, maybe JB Pritzker, Harris for sure.
嗯，我不希望新瑟姆或哈里斯成为总统。虽然我不认为拜登很好，但我认为他比哈里斯或新瑟姆更好。如果拜登退出，你认为谁是领先者？我觉得是RFK。真的吗？哇。我更希望RFK成为总统而不是拜登。但我认为如果拜登退出，会有一大堆民主党的正统候选人加入竞选。比如新瑟姆，或许还有JB普里茨克，哈里斯肯定会参选。

There's a lot of differences between the left and the right. But the one similarity is that there's a large amount of voters in both of those blocks who don't fundamentally like these establishment candidates. And I think that that sentiment is exactly the same. And so you can have a pro Trump wave on the right, just like you could have a pro RFK wave on the left. And they are solidified by the same idea, which is I think you're going to see more and more outsiders have a chance through the nomination process to get in.
左派和右派之间存在很多差异。但其中一个相似之处是，在这两个阵营中都有大量选民根本不喜欢这些既得利益者候选人。我认为这种情绪是完全一样的。因此，你可以在右翼看到一波支持特朗普的浪潮，就像你可以在左翼看到一波支持RFK的浪潮。他们都被同样的想法所固定，即我认为你将会看到越来越多外部人士有机会通过提名程序进入其中。

I think the Democratic Party will stop it. I mean, they shut down Bernie Sanders. Remember that? Sanders against Hillary Clinton. And they shipped him. They rigged the primary against him. I'll not use that word. Oh, I think it just labeled our, I just labeled the episode. No, but look, I mean, the establishment has in the Democratic Party has a huge influence over the outcome because they control the super delegates, right? They'll never.
我认为民主党会阻止它。我的意思是，他们把伯尼·桑德斯排除在外，还记得吗？桑德斯对阵希拉里·克林顿。他们排挤了他，对他的初选进行了舞弊。我不会用那个词。哦，我想我刚刚给这一集贴上了标签。但是，看看，我是说民主党内的当权派对结果有巨大影响，因为他们掌控着超级代表，他们永远不会……

So wouldn't do some supercharge the Republican base? I mean, being like a coastal elite and what's happened with San Francisco and LA, I think that just drives out the Trump voters in a massive way. I said like over a year ago, I thought that the 2024 would be a new, some to Santa's race. I still think there's like a 10, 20% chance of that. Wow, that would be wild. It'd be wild. Maybe 10%.
这样做不会激发共和党支持者的积极性吗？我的意思是，像沿海精英和旧金山、洛杉矶那样的情况，我认为这只会大规模排斥特朗普的选民。我大约一年前就说过，我认为2024年将是一个新的向圣诞老人竞选的竞争。我仍然认为有10%到20%的机会。哇，那将非常激烈。可能是10%。

What about Joe Manchin? What's the story there? Anybody have any insights on Joe Manchin? We had a phenomenal dinner at my house last week. He is so wait, try me. Okay. So what do you think? What do you think about it? I don't know if you publicly just close it. Well, it's already happened. We had a fabulous dinner and he met a lot of people here and he's amazing. Did Saks come to that? And Heather is amazing. Heather's amazing too. His daughter, who she ran, I think it was my land, pharmaceutical, incredible executive. Joe Manchin would jump in, yeah. You think, Trima? Manchin's fabulous. If Biden wasn't in, Joe Manchin would jump in, you think? I don't know. I don't want to speculate on anything like that. And I think he's an amazing American patriot.
关于乔·曼钦，有什么故事吗？有人对乔·曼钦有什么见解吗？上周我们在我家共进了一顿美妙的晚餐。他非常____（可能是一个形容词，但具体缺失，需要根据上下文理解）。所以你认为怎么样？你对此有什么看法？我不知道你是否已经公开关闭了这个话题。不管怎样，我们已经共进了美妙的晚餐，他在这里认识了很多人，他很棒。萨克斯来参加了吗？希瑟也很棒。他的女儿是我地产公司的执行总裁，非常不可思议。乔·曼钦会加入吗？你认为呢，Trima？曼钦是很棒的。如果拜登没有参选，他会加入吗？我不知道。我不想猜测这种事情。我认为他是一个伟大的美国爱国者。

Is that your guy, Freberg? Would you go Joe Manchin? Because he wants to control spending? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I'll tell you one of the reasons why I like RFK Jr. is that, I mean, there's so many issues that he is deviating from Democratic Party Orthodoxy. He's in favor of free speech and against censorship. He's in favor of civil liberties and against this massive surveillance state that we've created. And on foreign policy, he wants to end all the crazy wars.
弗里伯格，那个人是你的吗？你会支持本尼?曼钦吗？因为他想要控制支出？我不知道。我不知道。我不知道。我告诉你我喜欢罗伯特·F·肯尼迪的原因之一就是，他违背了民主党的正统立场，支持言论自由，反对审查制度，支持公民自由权利，反对我们建立的庞大监视国家。在外交政策方面，他希望结束所有的疯狂战争。

And I would say that of all the candidates I've heard, he understands the situation in Ukraine the most deeply. Now both Trump and the scientists have called for a ceasefire and that's good. And I think RFK would work towards a ceasefire too. But RFK Jr. goes deeper and explains how the whole situation in Ukraine came about. And so he understands it very deeply.
我觉得，在我听过的所有候选人中，RFK对乌克兰的形势理解最深入。现在，特朗普和科学家都呼吁停火，这很好。我认为RFK也会努力争取停火。但是，RFK Jr.更深入地解释了乌克兰整个局势的形成原因。因此，他对此有很深的理解。

All right, folks. Do you have it? Another episode of the All in the Podcast for the dictator, the architect David Sachs. And I know he's a kingmaker. No, he's a king. I like architect. That's a kingmaker. Sure. Kingmaker. We like that. I will take news. You like architecture, King. It's crazy. The whole thing was just like made up. No, but I know, but as a nickname, which one you prefer? What do you prefer? Architect. What do you prefer? What do you prefer? King. What do the articles say? Kingmaker? I think architect is more spandallish. The article is about a call that never happened. Take news with a person you don't know with a person. I don't know. Right. Okay. That aside, what nickname would you like us to use going forward? Kingmaker. Putting aside that the whole article was made up. Yes, putting that aside architect. Can I go with Kingmaker? I like Kingmaker. I like architect. But it's silly. Mr. Secretary, please tell us which one.
大家好。你们有听到了吗？一个新的All in the Podcast的节目又来了，这次我们邀请的是独裁者和建筑师David Sachs。我知道他是一个权力巨头，不，他是一个国王。我觉得叫他建筑师也不错，因为他可以成为一个金牌制造者。是啊，金牌制造者，这个很好。我来说一下新闻，你喜欢当建筑之王。这真是太疯狂了，整篇文章都是捏造的。不过，作为一个绰号，你更喜欢哪个呢？建筑师。你呢？你喜欢哪个？王者。那篇文章中说了什么？金牌制造者？我觉得建筑师更有西班牙风情。不过那篇文章是关于一个从未发生的电话。和某个你不认识的人谈新闻。好的，那就不提那篇文章了，以后你希望我们用什么绰号呢？金牌制造者。就当那篇文章是假的好了。好的，那就叫他建筑师好了。不过这样有点儿傻。秘书先生，请告诉我们你对哪个绰号更喜欢。

Yeah, Secretary of state. Look, I'm a mid-level donor, mid at best. You're mid at best. Some Redditors are going crazy right now. I'm a mid-best. And then influencer, I'm mid at best. So I'm a mid-mid. Can you be Secretary of state? I'm mid-mid.
没错，国务卿先生。听着，我只是一位中层捐赠者，最多也只能算中级水平。而您呢也只是中级水平。现在有些 Reddit 用户都疯了。所以说，我只是一个中间水平。如果算成影响者，我最多还是中级水平。总之，我只能算中间水平。你能当国务卿吗？我只能算中间水平。

However, it's true that there are very few podcasters who probably donated anything. You could be. Yeah. Henry Kissinger, a metal and all bright. Highest ranking farm-borne citizens to lead. Yes. I think that you would be an exceptional Secretary of state. I'm just going to put that. So you could be Secretary of state cabinet. I think you would be Secretary of state. Because you have the intellectual firepower to actually not get bamboozled on this stuff. You'd hold your ground.
然而，确实很少有播客主可能捐赠了任何东西。但是你可以。是的。亨利·基辛格，金属和光明。最高级别的出生在农场的公民领导。是的。我认为你会是一个非常出色的国务卿。我来表明一下。所以你可以成为国务卿内阁成员。我认为你会是国务卿。因为你有足够的智力来不会被这些东西迷惑。你会坚持自己的立场。

You know, actually, I think was pretty good on foreign policy. He doesn't get any credit. It was Jared Kushner. I was listening to an interview with him. And this happened like eight months ago. And he was describing the whole situation in Ukraine. And he says very clearly that he and Trump understood that bringing Ukraine into NATO was a red line for the Russians. And they never went there. So they armed Ukraine, but they were very careful to not make any statements about Ukraine coming into NATO. He understood that that was a serious provocation. I'll post the interview in the chat. But it was with, I think, Gerard Baker from the Wall Street Journal. So Jared understood the situation better than most of these, you know, foreign policy elite establishment types who don't understand how their actions could be perceived as provocative by the other side.
你知道吗，其实我觉得他在外交政策上做得相当不错，可惜没有得到应有的认可。其实靠的是贾德·库什纳。我听了他的一次采访，大约八个月前。他当时描述了在乌克兰的整个局势，明确表示他和特朗普明白把乌克兰引进北约将是一条红线，会引起俄罗斯方面的强烈反应。因此他们为乌克兰提供武器支持，但是非常谨慎，从未做出有关乌克兰加入北约的任何声明。他了解这是一种严重的挑衅行为。我会在聊天室里发布这个采访。采访是由《华尔街日报》的杰拉尔德·贝克主持的。所以贾德对局势的理解比大多数外交政策精英更好，他们并不了解他们的行为如何被对方视为挑衅行为。

Well, he, he's sure secured the bag after getting out of that gig to billion. And he got the Abraham records done. And now binds his flush out down the toilet because he's alienated the Saudi so much they've gone to the Chinese. I mean, the fact that there's flights between Israel and the Middle East nations now and they seem to have a common. It's pretty awesome. I don't think you understand how much Biden has alienated the Saudis. You wouldn't shake. And Biden wouldn't shake the man's hand. What was the point of that? I am not in favor of buying.
嗯，他在亿万富翁那份工作结束后，确保了自己的待遇并完成了亚伯拉罕的记录。现在，他把自己丰厚的财富都冲进了马桶，因为他已经让沙特人感到很疏远，他们已经转向了中国。我的意思是，现在以色列和中东国家之间有航班，他们似乎有共同点，这很棒。我不认为您理解拜登已经让沙特人感到多么疏远了。您不会跟那个人握手，这有什么意义呢？我不支持购买。

What was that like a fist bump or the pre negotiated fist bump? Yeah, it's a little how insulting is that the one thing I loved about Trump was he was willing to meet with anybody. My idea for our policy is meet with as many people as possible as often as possible and not go to war. I would meet with Kim Jong Un Putin, Xi Jinping on the regular every country we should be in with because that's how progress gets me not meeting with him is.
那是什么，拳头碰拳头还是预先商定的拳头碰拳头？是的，这有点侮辱人，我最喜欢特朗普的一件事就是他愿意和任何人见面。我们的政策理念是尽可能频繁地与尽可能多的人见面，不去打仗。我会定期与金正恩、普京、习近平等人会面，与每个国家保持联系，因为这是取得进展的方式，不会与他会面将是错失机会。

Yeah, I mean, it's not a reward. I think there's a part of this military industrial complex that believes a meeting with the president is a reward or an endorsement of the worst things anybody's ever done. It's not. It's a meeting to try to make the world safer or to try to build common ground. And so that is not me or Jim Kramer or wherever you want to try to frame it. It's intelligent and I'm for intelligent foreign policy. We're just talking to people.
我是说，这不是一种奖励。我认为，这个军工复合体的一部分认为与总统会面是对任何人做过的最糟糕的事情的奖励或认可。不是的。它是为了尝试让世界更安全或建立共同基础而进行的会议。所以这不是我、吉姆·克莱默或者你想要谈论的其他人。这是明智的，我支持明智的外交政策。我们只是在和人们谈话。

Let's talk about some people who said yes to come to all in summit. Let's just do a quick speaker. We're on time. I got to go. I got to go. I love you guys. I love you. I love you.
让我们谈谈一些同意参加All in Summit的人。我们简单快速地进行演讲。我们还有时间，我得走了。我爱你们。我爱你们。我爱你们。 简单意思：我们来谈谈那些同意参加All in Summit的人，并进行快速的演讲。时间充足，我必须先走了。我非常喜欢你们。

Yeah, fuck this. I'm done with this shit. Yes. My turn. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it
是啊，见鬼去吧。我受够了这些破事。好了，轮到我了。他说我们要将它开源给粉丝们，结果他们就疯狂地用它。

Love you guys, I sweet of kin flop Going on with you What, what, your weather's right Oh, my, my, my Besties are gone
亲爱的，我爱你们，我很开心能和你们在一起。你们现在在忙什么呢？你们那边天气怎么样？哦我的天啊，最好的朋友们都不在了。

I don't think that's my, uh, dog clickin' a nice, you driveways
我认为那不是我的狗，嗯，发出这个声音。 你的车道上有人敲击。

10x, wait at all Oh, man, my ambitatia is really weak, yeah
哦，天啊，我非常缺乏雄心壮志，要等上很长时间啊。

We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy Because they're all just like this, like this sexual tension that we just need to release and help
我们应该找一个房间，举行一个大规模的群交狂欢。因为大家都充满了这种性紧张感，我们需要释放它，帮助大家。

What, your, that beat, what? Your beat, your beat Beat, what? We need to get merges, our match
什么，你的，那节奏，什么？你的节奏，你的节奏。节奏，什么？我们需要合并，对手匹配。 意思是在问对方的节奏是什么，然后强调要匹配上对手的节奏。

I'm going all this I'm going all this.
我会去做这一切的。意思是我将会去完成所有需要做的事情。