Why Thailand's Geography Breeds Instability
发布时间 2020-11-18 00:00:05 来源
摘要
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Like most places on Earth, Thailand has had a strange year. Its largest city, Bangkok, is the world's number one most visited city, measured by international arrivals. As the pandemic spread across the globe, it felt an even greater impact than other well-traveled cities like Paris, London, and Dubai. Markets, nightclubs, and temples were now suddenly empty after teaming with foreigners for years non-stop.
像地球上大多数地方一样，泰国经历了一个奇怪的一年。它最大的城市——曼谷是世界上来访人数最多的城市，以国际旅客抵达人数计算。随着全球大流行的传播，泰国受到的影响比其他热门旅游城市如巴黎、伦敦和迪拜更加严重。市场、夜总会和寺庙现在突然变得空荡荡，这些地方曾连续多年被外国人围满。
But only after a brief com period of strictly enforced curfew were the usual swarm of visitors replaced with a new one, pro-democracy protesters. Thousands of loosely organized students flooded the streets of Bangkok, defined the emergency lockdown orders to incite change long overdue. They asked for the resignation of the Prime Minister and reforms to the powerful monarchy. Currently, anyone found to have defamed, insulted, or threatened Thai royalty can be jailed for years, while the king spends much of his time relaxing at his villa in Germany, paid for by the Thai public.
仅仅是在经历了一个严格实行的宵禁短暂的沉寂期之后，传统的参观人群被一个新的人群所替代，即倡导民主的抗议者。数千名松散组织的学生涌上曼谷街头，打破了紧急封锁令，以引发早就应该进行的改变。他们要求总理辞职，对具有强大权力的君主制度进行改革。目前，任何公开诽谤、侮辱或威胁泰王室者都可能被监禁多年，而国王大部分时间都在他在德国的别墅中休闲，费用由泰国公众支付。
One of the country's vocal opposition parties was legally dissolved by the courts in February. But while Thailand's current lack of tourists is highly unusual, these protests are not the least bit. One of the few consistencies and Thai politics is their extreme turbulence. The country has cycled through more governments than almost anywhere else in the modern world.
今年二月份，该国一支声音较为强烈的反对党被法院合法解散。虽然泰国当前缺乏游客非常不寻常，但这些抗议事件却一点也不稀奇。在泰国政治中，少有的一贯性就是其极度动荡不安。这个国家比现代世界上几乎任何其他地方都经历过更多的政府轮替。
This timeline shows every coup and attempted coup since 1910, roughly 21, though there have been so many that experts disagree on the precise number. Notable is not just the sheer number, but also the frequency. The longest a single government has maintained power is 15 years, and just twice in the entire period. Only three other nations have had more constitutions, Haiti, Venezuela, and the Dominican Republic.
这个时间表展示了自1910年以来所有的政变和未遂政变，大约有21次，尽管有这么多，但专家对具体数字意见不一。值得注意的不仅是数量，而且还有频率。单一政府维持权力最长的时间是15年，整个时期只有两次。只有另外三个国家所拥有的宪法更多，分别是海地、委内瑞拉和多米尼加共和国。
But there's a less obvious reason for Thailand's instability, one that has nothing to do with the monarchy, democracy, or even politics whatsoever. Looking at a map, you can tell a lot about a country, take away all labels, markers, and otherwise human-generated data, and you can still identify the ingredients of a nation. How big or small it is, which rivers or oceans it has access to, who its neighbors are, climate, latitude, forestation, shape, and so on. All of these things can affect a country's political stability.
泰国不稳定的原因之一，是一个不那么明显的原因，与君主制、民主或政治无关。从地图上看，你可以了解一个国家的很多信息，去掉所有标签、标记和其他人类生成的数据，你仍然可以识别出一个国家的成分。该国大小、它可以访问哪些河流或海洋、它的邻国是谁、气候、纬度、森林覆盖率、州的形状等等。所有这些因素都会影响一个国家的政治稳定性。
A small European nation situated between two large powers and land masses, you can expect plenty of invasions, and it's no surprise that this hunk of snow has been well protected from attack. But what you can't tell from looking at a map is a country's concentration of power. Big or small, much more important when it comes to stability is where decisions get made, how many places and how far apart they are.
这是一个位于两个大国和大陆之间的小欧洲国家，因此经历过很多次入侵。因为这个国家受到了很好的保护，所以不会对此感到惊奇。但地图上无法体现的是一个国家内部的权力集中程度。无论大小，稳定性更重要的是决策的制定地点、数量以及距离的远近。
Of course, in no nation is power truly divided evenly. It always concentrates in pockets, just as water droplets naturally attract and combine. This is no surprise. Civilization, in general, develops unevenly. Once cities are founded, they experience network effects. When there's a critical mass of energy, transportation, buildings, and jobs, more people move, which in turn creates more of all those things, which again attracts more people and so on until they spill over into neighboring cities or grow to consume them entirely.
当然，在任何一个国家中，权力都不会真正地平均分配。它总是集中在某些地方，就像水滴自然吸引和结合一样。这并不奇怪。总的来说，文明的发展是不平衡的。一旦建立了城市，就会出现网络效应。当能源、交通、建筑和就业岗位达到一定的临界质量时，更多的人会搬迁，这反过来又会创造更多的这些事物，吸引更多的人，如此循环，直到它们溢出到邻近城市或完全占领它们。
Still, there are limits. For example, simple geography may support several centers of power, like LA and New York on opposite coasts. The other reason for this growth ceiling are countervailing forces. For example, as cities like San Francisco grow, demand pushes rent to untenable levels, forcing an exodus in the opposite direction. So, while a country's largest city is usually far bigger than its second largest, this proportion varies based on many factors, like economic development. We can see this fact reflected in this list showing the ratio of a country's largest to second largest city.
然而，总归存在限制。比如，简单的地理位置会支持多个权力中心，像洛杉矶和纽约分别位于两个海岸线上。另一个导致城市增长上限的原因是对抗性力量。例如，随着旧金山等城市的增长，需求推动房租上涨至难以承受的水平，迫使人们选择反方向迁徙。因此，虽然一个国家的最大城市通常比第二大城市要大得多，但这个比例因许多因素而异，例如经济发展。我们可以通过这份列表看到这个事实在不同国家的最大城市与第二大城市比例上的反映。
It's primacy ratio. Those larger cities, which are at least twice as large as the next largest, are said to be primate cities. The exert outsized influence on the nation as a whole, and represented almost exclusively to the outside world. For example, the Greater London area is home to nearly 10 million inhabitants, far more than second place Manchester. Similarly, Mexico City is home to around 9 million people, about 7 million more than any other.
这是主导比率。那些比第二大城市至少大两倍的大城市被称为主导城市。它们对整个国家产生巨大的影响，几乎代表了外部世界。例如，大伦敦地区有近1000万居民，比第二名曼彻斯特多得多。同样，墨西哥城有约900万人口，比其他任何城市多出约700万。
There are many other examples, including Cairo, Paris, Jakarta, and Seoul, but without a doubt, the absolute most primate of them all is Bangkok, Thailand, with at least 10 million people, depending on where you draw the metropolitan boundaries. This dwarfs the country's second largest city, which has only 385,000 people. That's a ratio of at least 26 to 1. No other large nation has a population this unbalanced, and yet it's home to nearly 70 million people, meaning almost everyone lives either around Bangkok or in one of its hundreds of small, distant cities.
有许多其他的例子，包括开罗、巴黎、雅加达和首尔，但毫无疑问，它们中最原始的是泰国曼谷，据说至少有1千万人，具体依据都市边界的划定。这远远超过该国第二大城市的人口，后者仅有38.5万人，比例至少为26比1。没有其他大国的人口这么不平衡，但它却是将近7千万人的家园，意味着几乎所有人都住在曼谷附近或其成百上千的小城市之一。
The capital magnetically concentrates nearly every major institution, because where else would they go? Bangkok is home to two large airports, one serving as the hub for international flights, and the other for shorter regional ones. Its 50 districts reportedly grow by as many as a million people during the day, as workers commute from their homes outside the metropolitan area. The city is also home to nearly all of Thailand's major universities, along with the vast majority of its hospitals.
首都具有磁性吸引力，几乎每个主要机构都集中在那里，因为其他地方去哪里呢？曼谷拥有两个大型机场，其中一个服务于国际航班的中心，另一个则为短途区域航班服务。据报道，这个城市的50个区在白天会增加近100万人，因为工人从都市区域外的家庭通勤。这个城市也是泰国几乎所有重要大学的所在地，以及大多数医院的所在地。
All together, Bangkok contributes 29% of the national GDP. In 2010, it accounted for 80% of all urban land. How does any of this relate to hourly coups? That's where geography and politics collide, because not only are all of Thailand's museums and schools here, but also all of its action. It houses the headquarters of all of its major banks, multinational corporations, the national stock exchange, national newspapers, broadcast media, publishers, and most importantly, branches of government. Bangkok singularly holds the country's monarchy, military, and bureaucracy, which in turn appoints all provincial governors and district officers.
总的来说，曼谷为全国GDP贡献了29％，在2010年，它占据了所有城市土地的80％。这和每小时的政变有什么关系呢？这就是地理和政治的碰撞，因为泰国所有的博物馆和学校都在这里，也是所有活动的中心。它拥有所有主要银行的总部、跨国公司、国家证券交易所、国家报纸、广播媒体、出版商，最重要的是，政府的分支机构。曼谷独自拥有该国的君主、军队和官僚机构，这反过来任命所有省长和区长。
For obvious reasons, Thailand has greatly benefited from this close proximity. Indeed, many nations nurse primate cities as a strategy for rapid development, hoping to later export their work across the country. Every financial or political decision can be made and executed within a few hours drive. There are no time delays or words lost in translation.
显而易见，泰国因为与其他国家的近距离接触而获益匪浅。确实，许多国家采用大城市发展战略，以期能够快速发展，并希望随后将其工作输出到全国。所有的金融或政治决策可以在几小时内做出和执行。没有时间延误或翻译上的误差。
On the other hand, there's also a downside. Bangkok is a single imperative choke point, whose capture or disruption can cause every category of chaos across the rest of the nation. In small but symbolic and important physical arteries, roads, monuments, and government buildings are exactly the site's protesters seek to occupy and interrupt. The areas unusually poor city planning, or lack thereof, ensures that many streets are extreme bottlenecks, which if blocked can freeze entire regions.
另一方面，曼谷也有一个不利面。曼谷是一个唯一的关键要塞，如果被攻占或破坏，可能会在全国范围内引发各种混乱。在一些象征性的重要交通要道、道路、纪念碑和政府建筑上，游行者们正试图占领和打断这些地方。由于城市规划特别贫乏或缺乏，许多街道成为极端瓶颈，一旦被封锁，可能会导致整个地区陷入冻结状态。
All of these factors predispose Thailand to frequent coups, though not necessarily successful ones. Since after the physically small territory is captured, it can easily fall again. Of course, geography doesn't solely or even principally explain Thailand's instability. There are other political and structural reasons which would be foolish to overlook. For example, its mix of democratic institutions and unchecked royalty creates inevitable tension. But the primacy of Bangkok ensures that when they do happen, coups are relatively quick and decisive.
所有这些因素都使泰国更倾向于频繁发生政变，尽管不一定成功。因为在掌控了这个地理上小的领土之后，它很容易再次失陷。当然，地理学并不能完全或甚至主要解释泰国的不稳定。还有其他政治和结构上的原因，如果忽视它们是愚蠢的。例如，它的民主制度和无法控制的王室组成创造了必然的紧张局势。但曼谷的首要地位确保了当政变发生时，它们相对迅速和决定性。
Just as important, the extreme contrast in living conditions, opportunities, and wealth between the nation's capital and the other 85% or so of the country fuels the desire for change in the first place. In other words, the very same inequalities which make revolution possible also motivate them, as the rural population craves the same attention and resources as the city. While these facts do not necessarily doom Thailand to an eternity of coups, they make real lasting change a slow effort. Still, progress is very much possible. The latest round of protests has broken the decades-long seal on criticizing royalty, opening the door to honest and open debate. When structural progress is eventually made, it will be thanks to the hard fought protests of today.
同样重要的是，该国首都和其它85%左右的地区之间的极端生活条件、机会和财富差异也激发了改变的渴望。换句话说，让革命成为可能的不平等也同时激励着人们，因为农村人口渴望得到与城市同样的关注和资源。虽然这些事实并不一定注定泰国会永远经历政变，但它们让真正的持久变革变成缓慢的努力。仍然，进步是完全有可能的。最新一轮的抗议活动打破了批评皇室长达数十年的封印，打开了诚实和公开辩论的大门。当结构性进展最终取得时，将归功于今天艰苦斗争的抗议活动。
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