Can You Trust the Recession Signals? w/ Tavi Costa - YouTube
发布时间 2023-05-16 00:00:00 来源
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请提供原文，我将尽快进行翻译。
Ok now on the point I will drop its line by default through the 甚麼 been so resilient are they starting to roll over? Well, I think the, you mentioned both of them, I would think that the consumer is going to start to weigh in a lot more in the following months. Because you're starting to see credit card loans increase significantly, which means that they are starting to run out of cash and use credit cards.
现在进入主题，我会默认地放弃甚麼的那一方面，它们为什么如此有弹性？它们开始翻盘了吗？嗯，我认为你提到了两者，我认为消费者在接下来的几个月里将会更加注重这一点。因为你开始看到信用卡贷款显着增加，这意味着他们开始用信用卡耗尽现金。
And that's usually not a very good sign. But the consumer is still relatively OK compared to other decades. I do think that we're going to see a significant decline. And it's also related to labor markets. So labor markets have been very strong, but it's just in a few parts of their labor market, specifically, that are looking more resilient. So I don't know.
这通常不是一个很好的迹象。但与其他十年相比，消费者仍然相对不错。我认为我们将会看到一个显著的下降。这也与劳动力市场有关。虽然劳动力市场一直很强，但只有其中的一些部分看起来更有回弹力。所以我不知道。
I think what we're seeing right now, and as far as performance across the markets that I'm really concerned about, remains, yes, that that ceiling is something that is in everyone's minds. And because of the default risk and so forth, I think there's basically zero default risk. I mean, yeah, we can see a technical default and other things. But I'm not sure that's really the problem.
我认为我们目前看到的，以及我真正关心的市场表现，仍然存在着天花板的问题，该问题已经深入人心。由于违约风险等原因，我认为实际上没有违约风险。当然，我们可能会看到技术性违约等问题，但我不确定这真的是问题所在。
What I'm mostly concerned is, as we see those two parties agree on extending to that limit, is can we absorb a large amount of treasury issuances as we move forward after the fact, after agreeing on extending to that limit? And I'm not sure we can, because prior resolvments of that ceiling issue, we've had, I think in 2015 or so, it was an increase of about $1.1 trillion in the next nine months of the debt problem. And since then, that number has been increasing every time we've resolved at that ceiling. And now, last time, it was about $2 trillion.
我最关心的是，既然这两个党派同意将债务上限延长到那个极限，那么在达成共识后，我们能否吸收大量的国库发行品？我不确定我们能否做到，因为在以往的解决这个问题的案例中，比如在2015年左右，为了解决债务问题，我们增加了大约1.1万亿美元的债务；自那以后，每次我们解决这个问题时，这个数字都在不断增加。最后一次时，这个数字达到了约2万亿美元。
They're saying they're going to increase our issue about $1.2 trillion in the next months after that ceiling problem, because they have to catch up with the fact that they have not issue any treasuries. I think that it's easy to make the case that we're going to see over $2 trillion of treasury issuances. And can the market really absorb that today? I'm not sure there's really enough buyers of those instruments.
他们说他们将在下一个月增加我们约1.2万亿美元的发行量，因为他们必须赶上他们还没有发行任何国债的事实。我认为很容易证明我们将会看到超过2万亿美元的国债发行。但是市场今天真的能够吸收那么多吗？我不确定是否真的有足够的买家购买这些证券。
And everything is tied to the treasury market today. Right? I mean, look, even long duration assets are most of this bear market rally we've had since the beginning of the year is being caused by the fact that 10-year yields have not been rising like they were back in 2022. And the fact that we didn't see financial conditions really tighten as much as they were back in 2022. They actually ease up in many of the measurements that we looked at considering credit spreads.
今天一切都与国库市场有关，对吧？我的意思是，即使是持续时间较长的资产，自今年年初以来的大部分熊市反弹也是由于10年期收益率没有像2022年那样上升导致的。而且我们并没有看到金融条件像2022年那样紧缩。事实上，我们在考虑信贷利差等许多指标时实际上放松了很多。
Although, I do think that's an opportunity that credit spreads me blow out. They've been declining recently, along with the VIX. And so I don't know. I think that we're setting the stage for something big to happen, in my opinion. I haven't seen many of those times in my career where you have fundamentals really deteriorating. You have the narrative really deteriorating. But at the same time, some of the instruments that should be showing some of that weakness are not doing that.
尽管如此，我认为信用利差扩大可能是一个机会。最近它们一直在下降，与VIX一起下降。我不知道。我认为我们正在为一些大事情铺平道路。在我的职业生涯中，我没有看到很多基本面真正恶化的时期。您也可能会发现故事情节也随之恶化。但与此同时，一些应该显示出一定疲软的工具却没有这样做。
And I think that the volatility is way too suppressed. And we're creating setting the stage for a vol event in my opinion. Why do you think volatility is so suppressed? What's going on that we're not seeing this reflected in the markets? I think the way we measure volatility in the first place that people like to talk about is the VIX, which arguably is not a good way to really look at volatility itself.
我认为波动率被抑制得太厉害了。我觉得我们正在为一个波动事件做好铺垫。你认为为什么波动率如此被压制？为什么我们没有看到这反映在市场上？我认为我们首先测量波动率的方式是VIX，这可能并不是真正了解波动率的好方法。
But thinking about how the weights of that, which is mostly looking at the S&B 500, put options and so forth, but looking at the underlying index, which is the S&T and looking at the weight of most of those mega-cap companies that have been performing well over the last months or so. I think that's the reason why we haven't seen some of those issues really of fold. Look, credit spreads are also shouldn't be explained by the mega-caps. They should be explained by the fact that we just haven't seen a credit event outside of the banking problems.
但是，考虑到这些权重大多是围绕着标普500、看涨期权等方面的，实际上要看的是基础指数——标普科技指数，以及那些上个月表现良好的大型公司的权重。这就是为什么我们没有看到一些真正的问题出现的原因。当然，信用利差的解释也不应该只与大型公司有关，更多的应该是因为我们还没有看到银行以外的信用事件发生。
So I don't know. I think this is as there was a good chart that we put out. I probably didn't send to you guys. Just came to my mind. But it was a good chart that we put out recently that really looked at the number of bankruptcies that we haven't had in a weight versus today. And there is a lag. Initially, you see a very large amount of assets going bankrupt initially, or businesses that have a lot of assets.
我不太确定。我认为我们发布了一张好的图表。可能我没有把它发给你们。现在想起来了。但是我们最近发布的一份好图表真正地关注了我们避免的破产数量与现在的情况的比较。有一段时间滞后。最初，您会看到最初破产的资产非常庞大，或是有很多资产的企业。
And the following wave is the other number of businesses that follow along with that. And I think we've had some bankrupts happen. Some of them are very important ones, in the banking section, in the crypto space and some others. But I don't know. I would think that there's more to go. And if that is the case, and there's a credit or a vol event in the horizon, credit spreads and vicks are way too cheap. And maybe mega-caps don't deserve to be where they are.
接下来的浪潮就是跟随它的企业数量。我认为我们已经看到了一些破产的发生。其中一些是非常重要的，涉及银行业、加密领域和其他一些领域。但是，我不知道。我认为还有更多的事情要发生。如果是这样，如果在地平线上有信贷或波动事件，信贷利差和VIX（波动指数）就太便宜了。也许大型领头公司不应该处于它们的位置。
Why would you pay 100 times earnings to a company that is not even growing anymore? Most of the things stocks are actually starting to deteriorate. Even on the top line and the bottom line. So I think there's a lot of risk that people are not really perceiving as risk right now. That's so interesting. And we're going to talk about how you grapple with that risk in a second.
为什么你要为一家连增长都没有的公司支付100倍的盈利？大部分股票的实际情况正在开始恶化，即使是在销售额和利润方面也是如此。因此，我认为现在很多人没有意识到的风险实际上是存在的。这非常有趣。接下来我们将讨论如何应对这种风险。
I do want to get to that. But it's interesting that you're talking about tech stocks. Because there was all this concern about future profitability, not being it. We heard all about this rotation that is going to go into value and into more traditional names. And then I feel like ChatGPT came out. And it just blew the roof off. And a lot of the gains that you're seeing, pace and tech are really around this AI revolution. We had open AI, CEO Sam Altman and other tech executives testifying in front of Congress today.
我确实想谈一谈这个话题。但有趣的是你在谈论科技股。因为人们担心未来的盈利能力，听到过这个关于价值与更加传统名称的轮换。然后我感觉ChatGPT出现了。它彻底颠覆了局面。你所看到的涨幅，步伐和科技领域的真正原因是这次人工智能革命。今天，我们有Open AI的首席执行官Sam Altman和其他科技高管在国会作证。
I mean, everyone's trying to wrap their head around this. First of all, do you think that that's ushering it? Do you think that that's responsible for this enthusiasm and this money pouring into the tech sector and causing this outperformance? I sound like a permabair, but I just really, really struggle getting behind a market that the caper ratio is just so excessive or the sickly and just the P ratio is so excessively historically.
我的意思是，每个人都试图理解这个问题。首先，你认为这是引领这种热情和资金涌入科技行业、导致其表现优异吗？虽然我听起来像一个永久性的空头，但我真的很难支持一个市场，其市盈率过高或过于历史性地不健康。
I don't think we've ever seen a time in history when we reach that level that the next 10 years will look really attractive. I know other folks are starting to talk about that as well, Dr. Mueller mentioned that not too long ago. It's an important point because how will valuations really inflate from here, especially if rates are higher than they were 10 years ago and growth would be lower than it was 10 years ago.
我认为在历史上我们从未见过如此吸引人的未来十年。我知道其他人也开始谈论这一点，穆勒博士不久前也提到了这一点。这是一个重要的观点，因为如果利率比十年前更高，增长则比十年前更低，那么估值将如何真正膨胀。
Now, let's use the AI idea, because I think it's something I've been thinking a lot about too. Look, AI is almost like a perfect assistant. It's almost replaces at least 100 people working for you as an assistant sometimes. And it's amazing what it can do. It's been very helpful for our business as well. We've been using quite a lot. And what I find interesting is there is today a gap in valuations between small companies and larger companies. And if anything, what AI really does, in my opinion, so far of my experience using it and talking to people, is that perhaps, yes, there is improvements across the board of technological breakthroughs, but also efficiencies and other things that may be created.
现在，让我们谈一谈AI的想法，因为我认为我一直在思考这个问题。看，AI几乎像一个完美的助手。有时候，它可以代替至少100个工作的助手。它可以做到令人惊讶的事情。它也对我们的业务非常有帮助。我们已经使用了很多。有趣的是，今天小公司和大公司之间存在着估值差距。在我看来，AI所做的事情，也许可以提高整个技术突破，还可以创造效率和其他一些可能。
But one of the things that is interesting is that I think it will close a little bit the gap between smaller companies and larger companies. It's not the need for having to really have an army working for you. It won't be as necessary as it used to be in the past. So something to really think about. Because right now in the market, you see this major, I would say divergence between small cap names and the mega cap names. It really is a divergence. One is going up and the other one is going down. And I'm not sure that is really justified by what's going on either.
但有件有趣的事情是，我认为这将在一定程度上缩小小公司和大公司之间的差距。你并不需要真正雇用一大批员工来完成任务。这种程度并不像过去那么必要了。这是值得仔细思考的问题。因为现在市场上，你会看到小市值公司和巨型公司之间存在明显的分化。它真的是一种分化。一个正在上升，另一个正在下降。我不确定这是否是真正与现实情况相符的。
So look, I think we've had other breakthroughs during parts and times of the market where valuations are really high. Yes, there is maybe this time is different. And we're going to see two sequences of decades of robust growth in corporate earnings. We've never seen this before. We've had that one in the 1920s, one in the 1990s, and one in the 2010s. Both of the other ones were really preceded very important contractions in corporate earnings in a following decade. Can we see something similar today? I think it's very possible.
所以，我认为在市场估值很高的部分和时期，我们已经取得了其他突破。是的，也许这一次不同。我们将会看到两个十年的强劲盈利增长。我们从未见过这样的情况。我们曾经有过一次在20世纪20年代，一次在1990年代，以及一次在2010年代的强劲盈利增长。其他两次都在随后的十年中出现了企业盈利的重要收缩。今天我们能否看到类似的情况？我认为这很可能。
So I'm a little concerned about that. I think we've extrapolated way too much in terms of what we'll look like ahead. And I think this whole idea that markets are discount mechanism, which obviously is the case. In 2022, all we've had is in a discounting of duration, not a discounting of cash flows. I mean, even InfoTack, which, as you're talking about with the AI and other developments, their earnings are down over 11% year over year. Microsoft, which is one of the darlings of AI and so forth, just freeze salaries of their own employees. They're not raising any sellers. So, you know, a solidar conflicting data and information about all this as well. So I think it's a little bit height.
我有点担心这个问题。我认为我们在未来将会变得如何方面推断得过多了。市场是一个折扣机制，这个显而易见。但是到了2022年，所有的折价只是持续时间，并没有折价现金流。就算是InfoTack，它正在进行人工智能等方面的发展，但它们的收益同比去年下降了11%。微软则是人工智能的领头羊之一，但它却冻结了自家员工的薪水，不给卖家涨价。因此，我们在这个问题上会看到很多矛盾的数据和信息。所以我认为有些太过激进了。
Yeah, it's a great observation. A lot of great observations in there.
是的，这是一个很棒的发现。里面有很多伟大的观点。
So if you're nervous about this, these risks that, you know, Vals Tulo, that risks are not being appreciated, credit spreads, tech, megatax, running too fast, too far, how are you positioning?
如果你对以下风险感到焦虑，如Vas Tulo、没被认可的风险、信贷利差、科技、超级税、跑得过快、过远，你如何进行持仓？
How do you protect yourself if we're setting up for a volivant? Well, we have hedges. And I think the long side of the portfolio they won't change much in the next, you know, call it five or 10 years, which is very heavily invested in natural resource companies. I still think there's a lot of reasons to believe that resource companies will do very well. And then you're, there's still a fraction of the global equity market. And yeah, they can get caught up in the recession as well.
如果我们正在为一个波动市场进行准备，你该怎么保护自己呢？我们有对冲策略。我认为我们的组合中的长期持仓不会有太大变化，在未来5到10年中，我们非常重仓自然资源公司。我仍然认为有很多理由相信资源公司会表现得很好。然后，它们仍然只占全球股票市场的一小部分。是的，它们也可能被卷入经济衰退。
So it is absolutely critical to have some sort of a hedge in those businesses, too. And so the way we've been doing it is, we've been, you know, we think credit spreads are gonna blow out. So if they short a lot of junk bonds, we have shorts in the mega-kept space. I think the shorts in the mega-kept space is becoming cheaper and cheaper given the fact that everyone disagrees with the thesis. Everyone thinks that they are supposedly haven assets today, which is insane in my mind.
在这些业务中，拥有某种保护是绝对关键的。我们的做法是，我们认为信用利差会扩大，所以如果他们做了很多垃圾债券的空头头寸，我们就在超大空头空间增加了空头头寸。在我看来，超大空头空间的空头头寸越来越便宜了，因为每个人都不同意这个观点。每个人都认为它们今天是所谓的避险资产，这在我看来是荒谬的。
I think there's still opportunities to be sure things like private equity companies or private equity funds that I think are massively mismarking their balance sheets. You know, some of them carry a lot of, you know, start-ups and the tech startups and they're in their balance sheets, some of them carry commercial real estate in their balance sheets. And, you know, those things just don't need to be marked accordingly. And there is a significant narrative shift happening across the general and the public in general regarding the issues of private equity in different businesses like hospitals and other things.
我认为仍然有机会确保像私募股权公司或私募股权基金这样的企业，它们的资产负债表被严重错误标记。有些公司在资产负债表上持有很多初创企业和科技初创企业，另一些公司在资产负债表上持有商业房地产，但这些资产并不需要按照实际价值进行标记。针对私募股权在不同行业（如医院等）中的问题，公众正在发生重大的叙事转变。
And I think those are gonna be big shifts in terms of the narrative that could eventually hurt those companies. We've always been skeptical about those industries just because, you know, I'm not sure this, if people really knew what was really happening, you know, in terms of how those valuations really occurred and how those fees get paid through those managers, I think people would be surprised.
我认为这些转变将对叙述形成重大影响，最终可能会伤害那些公司。我们一直对这些行业持怀疑态度，因为如果人们真正知道这些估值是如何产生以及如何通过这些管理者支付这些费用的，我不确定是否会感到惊讶。
And so, anyways, I do think there's a lot of pain in that part of the market and still have. You know, some of them are already suffering outflows and other things that we know of. And so, I'm not saying that this will happen tomorrow, but that's one side of the market that I think could be potentially at risk.
总之，我认为市场的那一部分存在很多痛苦，并且仍然存在。你知道，其中一些已经面临流出和其他我们所知道的问题。因此，我不是说这将会在明天发生，但我认为该市场的这一方面可能存在潜在风险。
And so, mega caps, corporate bonds, private equities, I think insurance businesses that carry a lot of, of corporate bonds today, those businesses have a lot of corporate bonds in their balance sheets. It's basically a big chunk of what they own. And so, I think there's, you know, there's reasons to be worried about some of those parts of the markets.
因此，大型股票、企业债券、私募股权以及我认为现今拥有大量企业债券的保险行业，这些行业的银行账户里大量拥有企业债券。这基本上是他们拥有的大块资产。因此，我认为有理由担心市场中的某些部分。
And, yeah, and technology have a separation, right? The smaller companies and the larger ones, the larger ones are really cheap to be finding ways of being exposed to the short side. And I'm really attracted to those.
哦对了，技术和公司之间有一个分离，对吧？小公司和大公司，大公司很便宜去寻找暴露在短侧的方法。我真的很吸引这些。
意思是说，技术和公司之间其实是有差距的，特别是小公司和大公司之间。大公司很便宜去寻找暴露在短侧的方法，而这正是作者所感兴趣的。
Are you, is there a concern that trouble in that part of the, or if the pain starts to become real in that part of the market, that it could become systemic? Do you worry about something like that?
你们是否担心，如果那个市场出现麻烦，或者那个市场的疼痛开始变得真实，可能会变成系统性问题？你们是否担心这样的情况？
Oh, I think there's a potential. You're asking really the question of if there is a risk of a, a full, hard lending sort of scenario. And I think it's a, you know, I would say that there is a very high probability of that.
哦，我认为有潜力。你正在问的问题实际上是是否存在完全困难贷款的风险。我认为这是很有可能的情况，可以说概率很高。
I think very soon here, given how things are developing, the situation with the banks that really adds to that case, I think there was a chart I used recently, which was showing the commercial and industrial loans of, and in terms of growth. And we're starting to, because people are looking at those things in an annual basis, so the Delta on a year-to-year basis, I'm not sure that's really as critical as looking at this in a shorter timeframe, given the fact that most of those developments happen in the last month or so. But you're starting to see some really significant declines in terms of contraction of those loans. And, you know, I think that that is just adding to the case of the yield curve that has been telling and warning us about a potential recession.
我认为，鉴于形势的发展情况，银行的情况真的增加了这种情况，我认为我最近使用过的一张图表显示了商业和工业贷款的增长情况。由于人们正在按年度基础查看这些事情，因此一年对比一年的增长率并不是真正关键的，考虑到大多数这些发展情况发生在过去的一个月左右，因此在更短的时间范围内观察这些情况可能更为重要。但是，你开始看到一些真正显著的下降，即这些贷款的收缩。你知道，我认为这只是加强了收益率曲线已经告诉我们可能会出现衰退的警告。
And the fact that we're starting to see the separation, even on earnings beginning to contract, but revenues is still staying resilient. Revenues would be the less than was to fall. And I think that's in the next earnings, we're probably gonna see that. And if you look at most estimates, we're still seeing growth is still being embedded in most of those estimates today.
事实上，我们开始看到了分离的迹象，即使是收入正在开始收缩，但收益仍然保持着弹性。收入可能会下降，但不会像收益那样明显。我认为在下一个收益报告中，我们可能会看到这种情况。如果你看大多数估计，你会发现今天仍然有增长嵌入在大多数估计中。
So, yeah, I'm concerned about overall in terms of the economy. I think there's gonna be some real pain here in the near future.
是的，我的担忧是关于整体经济状况。我认为在不久的将来，会出现一些实质性的经济困难。
Yeah. So, you're bullish commodities. We talked about that last time you're on. But it's interesting now if we're seeing recession, we're seeing the potential for some vol events. These are all negatives that would presumably hurt demand and weaken the economy. And yet, you're still bullish commodities. It sounds like it's a longer term. I'm gonna let us know if it's a longer term call. And what fuels that?
是的，所以你看好大宗商品。我们上次谈过这个问题。但现在看来很有趣，如果我们看到衰退，看到潜在的波动事件，这些都是负面因素，会影响需求，削弱经济。然而，你仍然看好大宗商品。听起来像是一个长期的观点。请告诉我们这是一个长期的观点，是什么推动了它？
Well, I first informed most, I'm a big believer that we're gonna see correlations playing in markets very different than we saw back in a way. And so, I think that I don't think this is 1970s, but I do think correlations could be very similar in a sense of how you have had protective assets like treasuries in the last couple of decades that have been very good defensive assets here for Folly, I'm not sure that would be the case today. So, you think about gold playing that role?
首先，我想向大家表明，我非常相信我们会看到市场上的相关性与过去截然不同。我并不认为这是20世纪70年代，但我认为相关性可能会非常类似，就像过去几十年中保护性资产如国债一样，一直是很好的防御性资产。但我不确定今天是否仍然适用。所以，你会考虑黄金扮演这种角色吗？
There's a reason why, yes, I know gold has been underperforming less week or two, but it's the only asset in the whole world that is actually about to make new highs in terms of a macro asset, not Bitcoin, Bitcoin's down 70% from all time highs. And so, not NASDAQ, not the S&D 500, not oil, not copper. You know, since it's really interesting to see that gold is holding up well up there. And I think there's a reason for that is trifecta of macroing balances that we have, the 1940s debt, the valuation problem of the 1990s, inflation problem of the 70s, all that is playing a role into allowing gold prices to be lifted.
有一个原因是金价是世界上唯一一个宏观资产即将创出新高的，不是比特币，因为比特币距离历史最高点下跌了70%。也不是纳斯达克、标普500指数、石油、铜等。很有趣的是，金价一直表现良好。我认为这是由于宏观平衡方面的三重因素：40年代的债务、90年代的估值问题以及70年代的通胀问题，这些都在推动金价上涨。
And I think that's probably gonna be the case moving forward. And so, the reason why I'm so bullish on commodities, I understand the risk and the cyclicality of some of them like silver or copper, but I do think gold will play more and more of a role into becoming that defensive asset. It's important to see what's going on with central banks buying those instruments. Central banks were basically the big buyers of treasuries in the 80s.
我认为这往后可能会成为事实。因此，我对大宗商品非常看好。我理解银和铜等一些商品的风险和周期性，但我认为黄金将在成为防御性资产的过程中扮演越来越重要的角色。重要的是看到中央银行购买这些工具的情况。中央银行们在80年代基本上是国债的大买家。
If you look at what caused the 6040 proposed creation, in my opinion, started with the larger institutions, even larger than the patient funds, which are the central banks. They started buying the treasury market before anybody. And then we became, we saw this construction of a conventional portfolio called the 6040s. And I'm not sure that will be the case in the near future, meaning five or 10 years from now, I think there's gonna be not the end of fixing common equities in a portfolio, but a more balanced portfolio where gold will start playing a bigger role into that.
如果你看看6040提议的起因，我认为它始于比患者资金甚至更大的机构，即央行。他们先于任何人开始购买国债市场。然后，我们看到了一个被称为6040的传统投资组合的构建。但我不确定这将在不久的未来，也就是5到10年内仍然有效，我认为会出现更加均衡的投资组合，其中黄金将开始扮演更重要的角色。这并不是弃用常规股票投资组合，而是更加平衡的股票投资组合。
And I think, you know, look at the performance of treasuries versus gold in the 70s, which is very important. That was a major divergence between the two, where gold was rising every time the market had some painful moments. I think we're gonna start seeing that here as well. Jim was asking what resources you like and why. It sounds like even though we're talking about commodities, it's really gold. Or do you like the mall you just like gold the best?
我认为，你知道的，看看70年代国债与黄金的表现，这是非常重要的。那是两者之间的重大分歧，黄金每次市场出现一些痛苦的时刻都会上涨。我认为我们也将在这里开始看到这种情况。吉姆问你喜欢什么资源以及原因。听起来虽然我们正在谈论商品，但实际上是谈论黄金。你是喜欢所有商品还是只喜欢黄金？
Oh, no, I like a lot of. I think the metals and mining is one of the most important ones. I had a chart that I sent to you all looking at the industrial production in the US. And it's such an important chart, because it creates and sets the stage for the long term demand for commodities in general. So if you look at that chart itself, you're gonna see that there's been an 80 year process from the 1920s all the way to 2000, 80 year process of an exponential growth of industrial production in the US. And then from 2000 to now, we've basically seen a stagnant period where there was no growth whatsoever in the industrial production.
哦不，我喜欢很多行业。我认为金属和采矿是其中最重要的领域之一。我有一张图表发给你们，它看着美国的工业生产。这是非常重要 的图表，因为它为一般商品的长期需求创造和设立了舞台。所以，如果你看这个图表本身，你会看到从20世纪20年代到2000年，已经有一个80年的过程，这是美国工业生产指数呈指数级增长的过程。然后从2000年至今，我们基本上看到一个停滞不前的时期，在工业生产方面没有任何增长。
In fact, this was really aligned with the fact that China entered the WTO and became a large exporter of, I think China went from 2% of total exports in the global economy to 15%. So big changes there in terms of reliance in that country.
事实上，这与中国加入WTO并成为大量出口国的事实相符。我认为，中国的出口总额从全球经济的2%增长到了15%。因此，在该国的依赖程度方面发生了巨大的变化。
As we continue to see things play out in terms of more de-globalization trends and so forth, countries will be forced to go above and beyond and shift their economies back to own shore and reduce the geopolitical risk that they currently have. And as we see that happening, it's hard to believe.
随着我们继续看到更多去全球化的趋势发展，各国将被迫更加努力地将经济转向本国海岸，减少当前所面临的地缘政治风险。随着这种情况的出现，我们很难相信。
Just like China entering the WTO created a whole marketing commodities in the early 2000s. I'm really excited about seeing the G7 economies doing the same today. It's gonna be much bigger. So I think there's a case to be made there in long term commodities.
就像中国加入WTO在21世纪初创造了整个市场商品一样，我非常兴奋地看到G7经济体今天也在做同样的事情。这将会更加庞大。因此，我认为长期商品的前景非常好。
And we look at the metals and mining industry itself, which will be serving most of those developments. What, it's like, again, it's a fraction of the S&P 500. It's a fraction of the global equity market. So I'm bullish, not just gold, but silver, copper. We have coal, balt, nickel, all sorts of things.
我们来看金属和采矿业本身，它将为大多数这些发展服务。这是什么意思呢？它就好像只是标普500指数的一小部分，全球股票市场的一小部分。因此，我对不仅仅是金，还包括银、铜等金属市场持乐观态度。我们还有煤炭、钴、镍等各种资源。
And I just think it's really interesting that today you have gold prices approaching new levels and properties that own gold that have, there aren't the process of defining large discoveries of gold, trading have very depressed valuations. And so I've never, either I'm really stupid or this is one of the best opportunities I've ever seen. So I'm really excited about this because I don't know per se 100% the value of everything that we only in terms of their assets on the ground, but boy, it's definitely not what's being priced in the markets today. So I think it's really interesting. The level of inefficiencies we're finding there. And that's why I'm so attracted to it.
我认为今天黄金价格逼近新高，而持有黄金的资产目前并没有被确定出大量的黄金发现，所以其交易价值非常低，这让我感觉非常有趣。我不确定自己是不是真的太傻，还是这是我见过的最好的机会之一。我对此非常激动，因为我无法百分之百确认它们在地面上的所有资产价值，但这绝对不是目前市场所定价的。所以我认为这很有趣，我们发现了这么多的低效率因素，这就是我为什么会被吸引的原因。
So as I'm thinking about this, and I don't know if this is exactly the right question, but if there is, if there is de-globalization, and we do see this industrial boom as everyone reassures, if you've got AI on the loose, and it's gonna be robots that do much of the heavy lifting or a version of computer learning and things are way more efficient because of that. You don't need nearly the amount of people.
当我思考这个问题时，我不知道是否完全正确，但如果存在去全球化的趋势，我们确实会看到工业繁荣，正如每个人所保证的那样。如果你让人工智能失控，那么大部分繁重的工作将由机器人或计算机学习的版本完成，因此效率大大提高，这时你就不需要太多的人力。
Is, does that still mean we see a commodity boom? Do we just get rid of wage inflation, but you still have commodities going up or does that change the calculation of our commodities as well?
这是否意味着我们仍会见到商品繁荣？我们仅仅消除了工资通胀，但您是否仍然看到商品价格上涨，或者这是否改变了我们对商品的计算方式？
Well, we still need bridges to survive. We still need airports, we still need highways, we still need all sorts of things. Industrial capacity needs to be built. And like I said, there's another show between the manufacturing part of the economy relative to GDP today, which used to be a very significant percentage and today is probably one third of what used to be. And it's, you know, we've been in a secular decline on that by the way.
嗯，我们仍然需要桥梁来生存。我们仍然需要机场，我们仍然需要公路，我们仍然需要各种各样的东西。必须建立工业能力。正如我所说的，相对于GDP，今天制造业部分与过去相比占比很低，只有三分之一左右，这已经是一种世俗性的下降趋势。
So I don't think commodities are going away because of AI. I think AI is gonna create a lot of breakthroughs. I'm really excited about the biotechnologist place, for instance, I think there's a lot of, we've been investing in that.
我认为 AI 不会让商品消失。相反，我认为 AI 将创造很多突破。例如，我非常兴奋生物技术领域，我认为我们一直在投资这个领域。
We actually hire recently three months ago, scientists to work with us in finding some of those, before this whole hype on AI really, I should say five months ago or so. And it's been really exciting to learn about that industry overall. And I think with AI, things can really become more and more appealing in that camp. But, you know, and they're not priced the same way a lot of the mega caps and other stock price today for perfection. So I'm attracted to that.
我们实际上在三个月前聘请了科学家与我们一起寻找一些人工智能的内容，这是在整个人工智能热潮之前，我想是大约五个月之前。学习这个行业的整个过程非常令人兴奋。我认为，在人工智能的帮助下，这个领域的事情将变得越来越有吸引力。但是，你知道的，他们的价格并不像很多大市值公司和其他股票价格那样完美。因此，我被吸引了过来。
I don't think AI will change the dynamic in terms of the demand for, you know, copper in terms of the green revolution, the electrification that is happening. Or even gold itself, the fact that central banks are buying gold and you have solar panels being created still needs silver. I don't think we're gonna change that setup for commodities at all.
我认为人工智能不会改变对铜等绿色革命、电气化方面的需求动态。甚至黄金本身，由于中央银行正在购买黄金，而太阳能面板仍需要银。我认为我们不会改变商品的安排。
So I think there's, you know, I think it's, I'll go safe to say that the demand side of it will continue to be very robust and probably increasingly robust over the next five to 10 years for commodities. And the fact that supply remains so tight, commodities are all different in their sense.
我认为，需求方面将继续非常强劲，可能会在未来5到10年内变得更加强劲。事实是，供应仍然非常紧张，而各种商品也有其独特的属性。
But in the metals and mining, I can certainly say that it takes over decades to go from oversupply or to undersupply to oversupply. And I think we're definitely in the undersupply stage right now. And it's gonna take a long time to see that shifting. So, you know, it's hard on to be a bowl. I mean, it's, you know, there's a lot of, those things are really cheap, especially in the ground. I mean, if you think just buying gold or copper in the ground today is never being cheaper.
但就金属和采矿来说，我可以肯定地说，从供过于求到供不应求再到供过于求需要数十年时间。而我认为我们现在绝对处于供不应求的阶段。要看到这种变化需要很长时间。所以，你知道的，很难成为一个看涨派。我的意思是，这些东西现在真的很便宜，特别是在地下。我的意思是，如果你现在想买金或铜，那么从地里买从来没有这么便宜过。
What, and you like, you have a country play on that too. You very bullish on Brazil, correct? Is it related to commodities or are there other factors that make you like Brazil so much?
你的意思是，你也喜欢有一个国家来玩吗？你非常看好巴西，是因为商品还是有其他因素让你这么喜欢巴西？
Well, I think Brazil is interesting because basically, again, if you just, I suggest people to do that, take, you know, a big macro look in terms of, what are the cheapest equity markets in the world today? Start there. Just look at caper ratios across the whole world economy. What you're gonna find is the cheapest economies are Brazil and other commodity-led economies at their very top. The bottom of that, you're gonna see the US, which is by far one of the most expensive ones, and then you have other things like India, which is a commodity-in-porter, and, you know, it's still a lot of hype on India, you know, surpassing in terms of performances, other emerging markets, which I don't believe.
我认为巴西很有趣，因为从宏观角度来看，它可以说是当今世界上最便宜的股票市场之一。我建议人们先了解一下全球经济的市值比率，从中看到最便宜的经济体是巴西和其他以大宗商品为主导的国家。而在底部，美国则是最昂贵的之一，而印度则是富口岸的大宗商品进口国。虽然有很多人炒作印度在表现上超越其他新兴市场，但我不相信这种炒作。
Now, you start seeing things like Brazil that are really cheap and you ask yourself, why is it so cheap? Well, there's a lot of reasons. Well, that a very depressed commodity market over the last decades or so, and the other investments there is reflected in the Brazilian market. Number two, you've had a shift in the political environment that is creates a political risk, but well, though, in a second, there's also political risk in the US. One is price-back, one of the highest- You can say that again. One is price of one of the highest, you know, or most expensive valuations in history, and the other is price of one of the lowest valuations in history.
现在，你开始看到像巴西这样的地方非常便宜，然后你就会问自己，为什么这么便宜？嗯，原因很多。首先，过去几十年里，这是一场非常萎靡不振的大宗商品市场，而巴西市场上的其他投资也受到了影响。其次，你也看到了政治环境的转变，这会产生政治风险。但是，也要注意的是，美国也存在政治风险。巴西的股价是历史上最低的之一，而美国则是历史上最高的之一，两者都存在价格和估值上的巨大差异。
One is price for failure, the other one is price for perfection. I would much rather take the price for failure, because I believe in this commodity cycle that we're probably entering, and I think that it's going to create a lot of opportunities in that part of the market. And remember, the commodity space is very thin and small. Once large institutions begin to really spread their wings, it's hard to believe Brazil is not going to play a role as part of their portfolios.
一个是失败的代价，另一个是完美的代价。我更愿意承担失败的代价，因为我相信我们可能正在进入的商品周期将会在市场的这一部分创造许多机会。而且请记住，商品领域非常有限和小众。一旦大型机构开始真正铺开翅膀，难以相信巴西不会成为其投资组合的一部分。
And so I'm not claiming here it's going to be no volatility, easy trade, not at all. This is going to be heavily volatile, and there's going to be bad news and good news, and get ready for the right. It's always crazy. Brazil, there's always a political price is going on, but how prices are relative to fundamentals of most of the businesses, I mean, look at the banks. They're really cheap today, or look at commodity businesses in Brazil, relative to other commodities in other developed economies. I'm not sure that divergence evaluations is really correct.
我在这里并不想宣称这将是没有波动、容易交易的事情，完全不是。这将非常不稳定，会有好消息和坏消息，准备好应对吧。总是很疯狂。在巴西，总是有政治价格正在进行，但是大多数企业的基本面与价格有关。看看银行，它们今天真的很便宜，或者看看相对于其他发达经济体的其他商品，巴西的商品企业如何。我不确定这种分歧估值是否真正正确。
I think there's a lot of opportunities here in that part of the market, and I'd rather be on the cheap side than on the expensive side. So I'm really excited about that. Yeah, and you like to express that through equities, like a general Brazil ETF fund, or do you have to dig a little deeper into certain sectors or currency or bond? How do you like that?
我认为在市场的这个部分有很多机会，我宁可选择便宜的一边而不是昂贵的一边。所以我对此非常兴奋。是的，你想通过股票表达这种想法，比如一般的巴西ETF基金，还是你需要深入挖掘某些行业或货币或债券？你喜欢哪种方式？
I don't have a currency position, although I'm not opposed to it, I don't have a bond position either, although I'm not opposed to it. I do have equity positions in some commodity producers, the banks, and some of the companies really high dividends as well on top of it, and we do have private investments as well in Brazil and the mining space. And so that is essentially that part of the book. It's not a huge amount of a portfolio. I just want to say that, but it's something I'm excited.
我没有货币仓位，虽然我不反对持有货币仓位。我也没有债券仓位，虽然我不反对持有债券仓位。我确实在一些大宗商品生产商、银行和一些高股息公司持有权益头寸，除此之外，我们在巴西和矿业领域也有私人投资。这是本书的一个重要部分。尽管这不是很大的投资组合，但是我对此非常兴奋。
I think it's, I would think that the understanding of that market would be in demand in the following years. And people that understand that market very well, I would say that those are probably going to have some really interesting years. And I'm excited about that because I'm Brazilian and I've never been excited about Brazil. And so, biasly, negative about it. And recently, I just looking at the things and my views about commodities, I would say recently in less one or two years, I've been really shifting my view on Brazilian equities.
我认为，在接下来的几年中，对那个市场的理解将会受到需求的推动。那些非常了解这个市场的人，我认为他们可能会度过一些非常有趣的岁月。而我对此感到兴奋，因为我是巴西人，以前从来没有对巴西感到兴奋。从偏见而言，我对此持消极态度。最近，我开始审视大宗商品的事情，我认为最近一两年来，我的观点已经开始转变，对巴西股票的看法也随之改变。
And it's been difficult, but I think I am fully now engaged into going public and saying that I think Brazil is going to be a great investment for the next five or the 10 years, yeah. I love it. I love it. Tavio covered a lot of ground. Always really fantastic to have you on. Really interesting. I love your comments about AI, kind of leveling the playing field between big and small companies. I think we haven't heard enough about that. I think it's a really interesting observation. Thank you so much. My pleasure. Thanks for having me. Great to have you on. Thanks to all of you. As usual, we back tomorrow. I think I'm with Daria Stale if I'm not mistaken, but have a fantastic evening. And as always, take care and good luck out there. Thank you.
我认为巴西在接下来的五到十年里会成为一个非常好的投资。虽然有些困难，但我现在完全专注于公开表态。Tavio讲得很广泛，很高兴能有你的参与。你关于人工智能平衡大公司和小公司竞争场地的观点很有意思，我们听到得还不够多。非常感谢。很高兴能来参加。明天我们会回来，如果没有出错的话，我会和Daria Stale一起。祝你度过愉快的晚上，一切顺利。谢谢。