Stanley Druckenmiller talks about if we're in a tech bubble, what makes a great investor, and more
发布时间 2022-06-27 20:16:28 来源
摘要
Stanley Druckenmiller is widely considered one of the greatest investors ever. During one stretch, he compounded assets at 30%+ a year for 30 straight years.
Recently, he sat down to discuss:
* the parallels between recent rally and the Dotcom bubble
* the biggest risk to the equity market
* how he uses TOGGLE for his investment decisions
* knowing when to sell
* managing emotions when investing
* figuring out what makes a stock go up or down
Read the full interview here: https://thehustle.co/stanley-druckenmiller-q-and-a-trung-phanin
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On the parallels between the recent tech sell-off and the Dotcom Bubble
Takeaway: Like the Dotcom Bubble, current tech valuations are “speculative”. However, Druckenmiller believes today’s high-growth tech stocks — particularly those involved with digital transformation (e.g., cloud stocks) — will be able to grow into these valuations within 3-4 years.
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On the potential for a strong value stock comeback
Takeaway: There is likely more money to rotate out of growth stocks into value stocks. The Big Tech names (e.g., FAAMG) should not be seen as growth stocks, though, and actually offer decent value at current prices.
***
On which of the FAAMG names might first reach $5T
Takeaway: As a total guess, Amazon followed by Microsoft.
***
On the biggest risks to the equity market
Takeaway: The biggest risk is if rising inflation forces the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
***
On the long-term effects of the retail trading and Wall Street Bets
Takeaway: Retail traders will remain a force, but with investments in less “radioactive names” than GameStop.
***
On how Toggle or other investing tools could have been used in the 1980s
Takeaway: Druckenmiller believes in having a multi-disciplinary approach to investing (e.g., fundamentals and technicals). A product like Toggle — which creates financial analytical tools for hedge funds and retail alike — is another useful tool for an investor to have in the toolkit.
***
On making concentrated, high conviction bets
Takeaway: The best investors (e.g., Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, George Soros) make concentrated bets in high conviction plays. They don’t practice the business school teaching of “diversification”.
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On knowing when to sell
Takeaway: If the reason you bought a security changes, then you should sell. Conversely, just because a stock falls XX%, it doesn’t mean you have to sell if the thesis remains.
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On managing emotions while investing
Takeaway: Fighting emotions is a lifelong battle in investing. It doesn’t matter how long you’ve been in the game.
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On the biggest investing mistake he’s made
Takeaway: Druckenmiller lost $3B by buying in at the top of the Dotcom Bubble. Even with 20+ years of investing experience at that point, he couldn’t stomach watching others make money while he was on the sidelines.
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On figuring out what actually makes a stock go up or down
Takeaway: A lot of people can do fundamental analysis, but finding out what *actually* makes a stock move requires more digging.
***
On Bitcoin
Takeaway: Bitcoin was a solution in search of a problem. It found one: Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his very loose monetary policy.
***
On Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
Takeaway: Bitcoin has likely won the “store of value” battle for crypto. Druckenmiller sees Ethereum as potentially a Yahoo or MySpace: an early-mover technology that was replaced by a better product (Google, Facebook).
***
On Dogecoin
Takeaway: It’s all a joke to Druckenmiller. He just starts laughing when he sees it go up. He won’t short it because he doesn’t “like putting campfires out” with his face.
***
On career advice for 20-year olds
Takeaway: Try different careers until you find something you’re passionate about. Druckenmiller said he would participate in the investing industry even if he only made $50k a year. Prioritize happiness over money.
***
On when (or if) he will retire
Takeaway: Druckenmiller wants to have a connection to the investment markets every day so he doesn’t ever see fully retiring.
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