LIVE: Opendoor Q4'2022 Earnings Discussion & AMA
发布时间 2023-03-10 18:06:06 来源
摘要
Recording of our Discussion & AMA live on Twitter Spaces - Mar 10, 2023. Please like and subscribe!
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First of all, things that we want for joining. Make sure you raise your hand if you have a question. We will start with a little intro from Tyler, telling us about OpenDOS Q4. But make sure you already raise your hands now. So we have some questions lined up to discuss and talk about.
首先，我们所想参加的事情。如果您有问题，请确保举手。我们将从Tyler的简短介绍开始，他将告诉我们有关OpenDOS Q4的信息。但请务必现在就举手。因此，我们已经准备好一些问题来讨论和谈论。
Cool. All right, thanks to Vashin. And thanks everybody for joining the spaces. We really wanted to do this spaces right after earnings, while it was fresh. And everyone kind of had questions at the top of their minds. But unfortunately, I couldn't make it because of a working engagement. But we're here now. And I think there's still a lot to discuss. And there really hasn't been much coverage of OpenDOS earnings, which was important for a few different reasons. But I'm just going to kind of walk through some of the highlights that I think are probably worth diving into tonight. And then after that, if anyone has any questions, we can start kind of going deeper into the quarter.
很酷。好的，感谢Vashin。还有谢谢大家参加这个场地。我们真的希望在收益后立即举行这个场地，因为这样可以保持新鲜感。每个人都有一些问题在脑海中。但不幸的是，由于工作安排，我不能参加。但现在我们在这里。我认为仍然有很多需要讨论的事情。而且，对于几个不同的原因，OpenDOS的收益还没有得到很多关注，这是重要的。但我只是想简单介绍一些我认为可以深入讨论的亮点，之后如果有任何问题，我们可以开始深入探讨这个季度。
So at a high level, OpenDOS, beat on the top line, and missed on the bottom line. Certainly for our own internal expectations, believe they came in with 7,512 homes sold, 2.9 billion, and revenue, adjusted gross margins of negative 3.2%. And homeless purchase of 3,427. And on the call, there were some notable announcements.
在较高的层面上，OpenDOS在销售量上表现出色，但在利润方面则不尽如人意。根据我们公司内部的预期，他们售出了7512套房屋，总营业额为29亿美元，经过调整的毛利率为负3.2%。还有3427套无家可归者的购买。在电话会议上，还有一些值得注意的宣布。
Number one, their chief investment officer, Daniel Marillo, announced his resignation the day before the earnings call. He had been heading up the data and pricing teams for OpenDOS for a few years up into that point. And he was going to be, he came from Citadel and before that blackstone. And he was heading back to the hedge fund world, which in which he will indubitably make quite a bit more money.
OpenDOS的首席投资官丹尼尔·马里略在收益电话会议前一天宣布辞职。他曾领导OpenDOS的数据和定价团队数年。他曾在城堡投资和黑石集团工作，并将回到避险基金领域，在那里他毫无疑问将赚到更多的钱。
Another point worth mentioning is that new CEO, Carrie Wheeler, outlined new guidance for cost-cutting initiatives. So she plans to eliminate 100 basis points of cost from OpenDOS operating structure over the next year. And she thinks that's conservative. And she also mentioned new guidance for third party, the third party marketplace. So previously, Eric Wu had said that they intend for third party marketplace to be 30% of all of OpenDOS transactions by the end of 2023. We were a little skeptical of that. And she backed that estimate to 30%. Of transaction share only in the markets that exclusive is active. So exclusive is currently active in Austin, Houston, DFW, which are all big markets for OpenDOS, but definitely a smaller estimate, more like 4% of total transaction share versus 30% of all transaction share.
有一点值得一提的是，新任CEO Kerry Wheeler提出了新的成本削减措施指导方针。她计划在未来一年内从OpenDOS的运营结构中削减100个基本点的成本。她认为这个指标是保守的。她还提到了第三方市场的新指导方针。此前，Eric Wu曾表示他们打算到2023年底时，第三方市场成为OpenDOS所有交易的30%。我们对此有些怀疑。她支持将该估计值仅限于Exclusive（一种市场活跃度很高的服务）所在市场的交易份额，即Austin、Houston和DFW。这三个市场都是OpenDOS的大市场，但更接近4%的总交易份额，而非30%的总交易份额。
One of the highlights of the call was they mentioned that list with OpenDOS or list with certainty had conversion rates of 20% to 25% for real sellers, which was really exciting because it's another way that OpenDOS can monetize the transaction in an asset light off balance-sheet way. So high profit margins, very similar to third party marketplace, with the caveat being that list with certainty is only active in one market right now.
电话会议的一个亮点是他们提到，在OpenDOS列表或确定性列表中，真正的卖家的转化率达到了20%到25%，这真的很令人兴奋，因为这是OpenDOS可以通过资产轻量级的资产表外方式获利的另一种方式。因此，利润率很高，与第三方市场非常相似，但要注意的是，确定性列表目前仅在一个市场上活跃。
And I think last but not least, probably the part that we've been most intent on figuring out is OpenDOS guidance. So for the quarter, OpenDOS provided Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Revenue, I believe, 2.45 billion and Adjusted EBITDA, let's see, of negative 350 to negative 370 million. So if you back that out, that comes to an Adjusted Gross margin of negative 5% at the midpoint, which would be about 180 basis points lower than what they posted for Q4.
我认为最后但同样重要的是，我们一直在极力寻找的部分可能是OpenDOS的指导。因此，这个季度，OpenDOS提供了收入和调整后的EBITDA指导。 我相信收入为24.5亿美元，调整后的EBITDA为负35亿到负37亿美元。因此，如果你计算回来，这将导致中间点的调整后毛利率为负5％，大约低于他们在第四季度的发布情况。
And for us, because we're monitoring all the data, we found this kind of interesting because it's a lot worse than they did in Q4. And Q4, they sold 90% of their sales were from the Q2 offer cohort. That's down precipitously in Q1, and certainly in Q2, as well, and we've seen improving margins. So that's something that we've been monitoring and really poking at and trying to figure out where the discrepancy is. And I think we have some solutions, but not all of it. And it's going to make for an interesting quarter when they finally do report.
对于我们来说，因为我们正在监测所有数据，所以我们发现这非常有趣，因为它比他们在第四季度做得更糟。在第四季度，他们销售的90％是来自Q2提供队列。在第一季度和第二季度，这一数字急剧下降，同时我们看到了利润率的提高。因此，我们一直在监控并确实在努力找出差异所在的原因。我认为我们有一些解决方案，但还不是全部。当他们最终进行报告时，它将会是一个有趣的季度。
Great. Thanks, Tyler, for the summary. If you have any questions, make sure to visit your hands so we can get you up here, so speaker. One thing that we can double click on while we're waiting for some questions is the new lineup for 2023 for the seller products. Right now, first party, OpenDocache offers are at a record low conversion rate of 10%. Most of you to the offers being bad and low and the current market being frozen in terms of volume.
太好了，谢谢Tyler提供的摘要。如果你有任何问题，请举手让我们把你拉到发言者面前来。在我们等待问题的过程中，我们可以双击一下卖家产品2023年的新阵容。目前，第一方开放文档缓存的转化率创下了记录的低位，只有10％。主要是由于提供的内容不好，市场需求量冻结。
So basically, OpenDocache has last year announced that exclusive will kind of fill that gap with better offers because they would list the home on exclusives and get real offers from sellers that they're looking, so from buyers that are looking at exclusives and from other institutions. That was kind of their plan to get to 30% of their sales through that in 2023.
基本上，OpenDocache去年宣布，独家列表将填补那个空白，并提供更好的报价，因为他们会将房源列入独家，并从卖家那里获得真实的报价，同时也能吸引正在关注独家房源的买家和其他机构。这是他们打算在2023年通过这种方式实现30%销售额的计划。
Now, as you mentioned, they kind of attracted goal a little bit mainly to them saying that the product is not quite in a state yet, where they want to roll it out to more markets because that would make it a lot harder. If you're only in one state in free markets, you can change fundamental pieces of the experience much faster than if you rolled out to 10 or 20 markets for that kind of makes sense.
现在正如你所提到的，他们认为把目标放得高了一点，主要是因为他们认为产品还没有达到他们想要推广到更多市场的状态，因为那样会变得更加困难。如果你只在一个自由市场，你可以更快地改变体验的基本组成部分，而如果你推广到10或20个市场，那将会变得更加困难。这样说可能就更加易懂了。
And what they are backfilling or what they alternatives is they want to offer sellers aside from that, is this list of certainty product. Which we heard the first time in the earnings school, they opened a list with OpenDoc product before and was more of like, hey, we connect you to a part-language in and they will list the home for you and it will cost you less than it would cost you with a regular realtor.
他们所填的或提供的替代选择，除此之外，还有一份确保产品清单。在盈利学校中，他们先是公开了OpenDoc产品清单，类似于“我们将为您联系熟谙该领域语言的人，他们将为您列出房屋并以比常规房地产经纪人更少的费用向您收取佣金”。
But they never promoted it. It wasn't ever part of the seller funnel when you come in together cash offer. Well, now because they're conversion rate and they're officer are quite low because they have to be risk off and expect to hold the home longer. And with the longer holding time, they also have to incorporate the housing price depreciation that might happen during that time.
但他们从未进行过推广。当你提出现金出价时，它从来不是卖家购买的一部分。现在，他们的转化率和销售人员非常低，因为他们必须承担风险并预计房屋保持时间更长。随着持有时间的延长，他们还必须考虑可能发生的房屋价格贬值。
They will offer that sell a funnel that they have to partner agents and basically have an alternative to list your home on the MLS with a partner agent and still have the first party office of backup. So you'll get connected to a partner agent from OpenDoc, you'll list your home like you would do with a regular realtor.
他们将向合作代理提供销售漏斗，并且基本上提供一种选择，即与合作代理在MLS上列出您的房屋并仍然具有备份的第一方办公室。所以，您将与OpenDoc的合作代理联系，像与常规房地产经纪人一样列出您的房屋。
It's a little bit of a different experience, I guess they also aim for most of the experience not being in person, you don't have to go to like a realtor's office, you just do it from your home. But in the end, if you can't sell an MLS, you can always fall back to the offer that OpenDoc gave you and it will be a discounted offer.
这是一种有点不同的体验，我想他们的目标是让大部分体验不必亲自前往，你不必去房地产中介的办公室，可以在家里处理。但最终，如果你无法在MLS上销售，你总是可以转向OpenDoc给你的报价，它将是一个折扣报价。
So because if a home is listed on the MLS and doesn't sell, obviously, the development of the home was depreciated. So that's kind of the lineup for this year. They have to cash off a business, which is currently at a conversion rate low. They will have list of certain D, currently only one market, but likely rolling out to more soon.
因为如果一个房屋在MLS上列出来没卖掉，显然它的价值已经下降了。所以这就是今年的计划。他们必须销售一家业务，而现在兑换率较低。目前只有一个市场被列入特定的D清单，但很可能很快会推广到更多市场。
And then they have to free for the marketplace exclusive business that is currently on the available in Texas. And they said they might roll this out to more markets by the end of the year.
然后他们必须为市场提供目前仅在得克萨斯州可用的独家业务。他们表示可能会在年底前将此推广到更多市场。
Do you have any questions? I'm just going to check the Discord. If you have a question, I want to chat with us. Just raise your hand and we can get you out here. This is Peter.
你有任何问题吗？我正要查看一下Discord。如果你有问题，想要跟我们聊聊，请举手，我们会帮你解决。我是Peter。
We've got one request here. Hey David. Can you hear me? Yes. Yeah, thanks for taking my question. So I guess I was just in light of the Q4 earnings results and what feels like maybe a, I don't know, like kind of a difference between what's publicly accessible that Datador can scrape and what OpenDoer is doing, maybe behind the scenes in terms of on there, and of things, whether it's, I don't know, like incentives that aren't publicly visible.
我们这里有一个请求。嘿，戴维，你能听到我吗？能。是的，谢谢你回答我的问题。我想我只是针对第四季度收益的结果以及感觉上可能有一些差异，即Datador可以抓取的公开可访问的数据和OpenDoer在幕后可能正在做的事情，无论是什么，比如不公开可见的激励措施之类的东西。
Do you feel like that poses a problem for the accuracy of the Datador information stream that at least was thought to give maybe investors a competitive advantage in terms of like the crystal ball into the future, whereas now it looks like there's much more of a, I don't know, like a invisible kind of, like there's a lot more, a lot less visibility.
你是否觉得这会给Datador信息流的准确性带来问题？这个信息流曾被认为能够为投资者提供未来的“水晶球”，因而获得了竞争优势，但现在看起来它变得更加不可见，可见度降低了许多。
Do you think that that's possibly true moving forward? And if so, yeah, kind of, are there any ideas about how to navigate that landscape in terms of investment thesis moving forward?
你认为这可能是未来的真相吗？如果是的话，有没有关于如何在投资论点上驾驭这个局面的想法？
Yeah, that's a great question, thanks David. I can tell you, I can tell you, after the earnings result came in and, you know, gross margin, adjusted gross margin came in lower than we expected. We really spent that weekend and really the rest of that week going over the numbers and trying to figure out what the discrepancy was. And we tried it a few different ways. And, you know, at first, which I've sort of spelled out, we wondered if it was more of a calculation problem.
是的，这是个非常好的问题，谢谢David。我可以告诉你，当收益结果公布后，我们发现毛利率和调整后的毛利率比我们预期的要低。我们花费整个周末和后面的那个星期去仔细研究数据，并试图找出其中的差异。我们试了几种不同的方法。一开始，我们想知道这是否更多的是个计算问题。
And, every way we did the numbers, they all came out the same. And then, you know, we assumed, okay, maybe it's the non-disclosure states, right? Because we can only, we only have visibility into the sales data for disclosure states. So, states like Texas, which is a fourth of open doors business, we don't have any data on sales margin. And so, even if you assume the worst for those non-disclosure states, the gross margin just doesn't make a lot of sense. And so, part of what we are in the process of doing is edge case right now.
无论我们计算数据的方式如何，结果都是相同的。然后，我们猜测，也许是非公开披露的州的原因吧？因为我们只能看到公开披露状态的销售数据。所以像德克萨斯这样占开门业务四分之一的州，我们没有任何销售利润数据。即使你对这些非公开披露的州最坏的情况做出设想，整体毛利润也显得不太合理。因此，我们现在正在进行边缘情况的探究。
So, we're trying to find all the different edge cases that could explain the discrepancy between the margins and trying to use that to create a better model. And I think we have some good ideas for ways that we can get closer. And certainly some proxies that we haven't considered before, that on back tests already make a few of our metrics more accurate. I can say, you look at all the other metrics that we assess for revenue, homes purchase, home sold, we were, you know, less than 6-10 of 1% to weigh from actual on that.
所以，我们正努力寻找所有可能解释差异的不同边缘情况，并试图利用它们来创建一个更好的模型。我认为我们有一些好的想法可以让我们更接近答案。此外，我们还有一些之前没有考虑过的替代方法，在回测中已经让我们的一些指标更加准确。我可以说，如果你看看我们衡量营收、房屋购买和出售等所有其他指标，我们与实际情况的偏差都不到6-10％。
So, I still think that there's a lot of value in that. And then when you go back to the past 22 quarters that we have data for the quarterly estimates, the gross margin has always been much, much closer than this quarter. So, I think that we are seeing a phenomenon right now that probably has a lot to do with open door attempting to sell off as much inventory as possible very quickly. And using whatever leverage they possibly can to offload that inventory. And so, I think in that regard, it's a little bit of a unique situation. And it makes sense that they were able to achieve such incredible volumes using some sort of incentive or some sort of measure to accelerate those, those resales. But to your point, we take this very serious, very seriously.
所以，我仍然认为这是非常有价值的。当你回顾过去22个季度的数据，每个季度的毛利率都比本季度要接近得多。所以，我认为我们现在正在看到一种现象，这种现象很可能与开放式门窗试图尽快销售尽可能多的存货有很大关系，他们使用任何可能的杠杆来摆脱存货。因此，在这个方面，这是一个有点独特的情况。可以理解的是，他们能够使用某种激励措施或某种措施来加速这些再销售，从而实现如此惊人的销售量。但是，正如你所说，我们非常严肃对待这个问题。
It's our business to be right, not to be bullish on open door, not to be bearish on open door, just to be plain and fair and right. And so, definitely for Q1, we've already revised our gross margin estimates down for the quarter with the assumption that there's some sort of incentive structure, or some loss of gross margin in these transactions. And that being said, there's also like limits to what open door can give in concessions since you can't just report a number on the sales deed and then actually collect a different number.
我们的任务是做正确的事，而不是在开放门的问题上表现出牛市或熊市的态度，只是简单、公正、正确。因此，对于第一季度，我们已经将毛利率预估下调，假设在这些交易中存在某种激励机制或毛利损失。即便如此，Open Door可提供的让步也是有限的，因为你不能在销售契约上报告一个数字，然后实际上收取不同的数字。
So, there's some rules around the amount of seller credits you can give for, even if they do rate buy downs for the buyer, there's a limit to that, right, that the lender allows for. It's not going to be unlimited. For now, we probably have to go a bit broader in the range that we estimate for and obviously we're looking to, different ways too, improve the estimate. We are still, we are very accurate in the number of sales and purchases. I'm pretty proud of that. And that gives, that is an important number as well because it doesn't matter how much, especially in the rest of this year, like volume will be a really important thing we need to look at. Thanks.
所以在卖方提供贷款买盘时，有一些规定限制了卖家所能提供的贷款金额，即使他们为买家提供了利率优惠。这个限制是贷方所允许的。这个限制是有限的。现在，我们可能需要对我们的估算范围进行更广泛的调整，显然我们还在寻找不同的方法来改进我们的估算。我们非常准确地计算出了销售和购买的数量。我为此感到非常自豪。这也是一个重要的数字，因为特别是在今年的其余时间里，交易量将是我们需要关注的一个非常重要的事情。谢谢。
Right, any other questions? If you have a question, please request to speak. If you don't want to speak, you can also post us a question in the discord.
好的，还有其他问题吗？如果您有问题，请请求发言。如果您不想讲话，也可以在Discord上向我们提问。
I'll go ahead and ask another question. I don't know. This is David again. But I guess one of the things that concerns me as an investor and pretty heavily invested, probably inappropriately so. But I guess one of the things that concerned me was the fact that Eric Wu was absent from the call. I guess I understand that he's shifted roles relative to his kind of passing over to a character healer. And I think, you know, I think there's potentially good reasons. But I guess at least for me, I'm starting to notice some concern about maybe there's a story behind the story is the cover story, the actual story, is it that he is dedicated to product?
我继续提出另一个问题。我不知道。这是David再次发言。但我想作为一名投资者，我的投资可能有些过度了。然而，我关注的事情之一就是Eric Wu在电话会议中缺席了。我理解他的角色转变成了角色治愈者，我觉得可能有很好的原因。但至少对我来说，我开始担心是否有一个故事背后的故事，是掩盖的故事还是真实的故事，他是否专注于产品？
And I guess I'm just trying to figure out or maybe behind the signs and trying to sus out if there's more afoot than at least the cover story is. And maybe that's just the nature of it being down and so anxiety or paranoia creeps in. But I do know of many companies where for sure the cover story is, you know, we're transitioning, yada, yada, yada. And behind the scenes, there's more turmoil.
我猜我只是试图弄清楚或者在标志的背后试着了解是否有更多事情正在发生，至少掩盖故事如此。也许这只是因为它被压制了，所以焦虑或妄想症滋生。但我确实知道许多公司的掩盖故事肯定是，你知道，我们正在进行过渡，等等。在幕后，更多的动荡正在发生。
So I guess I'm just wondering if anybody has any thoughts or ideas about that because I did find it. I at least for me would be easier to stomach transition if it still felt like, okay, everybody's still here on board and his absence seemed to me to be a point of concern.
所以我想知道是否有人有任何想法或想法，因为我发现了这个问题。如果感觉仍然像是，好的，每个人都还在船上，那么对于我来说，过渡就会更容易接受，他的缺席似乎是我担心的问题。
I think that's another question, David. I think that there are three likely reasons, probably all contributing that Eric was on the call. One I would say is at least anecdotally, Eric hates interviews. And he really doesn't like being involved in that, which I think has been frustrating at times.
我认为这是另一个问题，大卫。我认为可能有三个原因导致埃里克参加了会议，可能所有的原因都起了作用。首先，我想至少可以说，埃里克讨厌面试。他确实不喜欢参与其中，我认为有时这令人沮丧。
But everyone we know who knows Eric has said that he really doesn't like doing press, he doesn't like really talking to anyone but individual investors. I think that's one, two, it's Carrie's first call as the CEO. And I think, you know, take that for what it is, but perhaps you wanted her own space, or, you know, to run the show on her end, hard to know. And then three is, this call was anti-third party, right?
我们所有认识 Eric 的人都说他真的不喜欢做媒体宣传，他不喜欢和除个别投资者以外的任何人交谈。我认为这有一、二个原因，第一是这是 Carrie 担任首席执行官后的第一个通话。你知道，这可能是为了让她有自己的空间或者掌控局面，很难说。其次，这次通话是反对第三方的，对吧？
Like, Eric is now president of Marketplace. The company previously had sort of talked about the idea that third party Marketplace was going to fix the margin issue by the end of 2023. But really, this call was saying, no, we're not going to do that. The focus is on making the first party business work. And so what Carrie seemed to want to focus on was getting through the Q2 offer cohort, lowering the cost structure and scaling the third party Marketplace prudently.
埃里克现在是Marketplace的总裁。该公司此前曾谈及第三方市场将在2023年底解决利润问题的想法，但实际上，这次呼吁是在说，我们不会这样做。重点是使第一方业务运作顺利。因此，凯丽似乎想要重点关注完成Q2的优惠组，降低成本结构，并谨慎扩展第三方市场。
But for Eric, I think it would have been a tough call because basically his previous estimate was, you know, called seven times bigger than it was actually going to be. He was just moved to president marketplace and opened or just posted their largest loss ever. I think for all of those reasons, it was probably not super exciting for him to get on stage and be, you know, beyond the call as well.
如果没有Eric，我认为这将是一个艰难的抉择，因为基本上他以前的估计是，你知道的，比实际要大七倍。他刚刚被调任为市场总裁，并开了他们有史以来最大的亏损。出于这些原因，我认为对他来说，在舞台上表现得比要求更好可能不是非常激动人心。
And so those are the guesses that I would hazard as to why he wasn't as involved in this call. And I assume that currently what most analysts and investors are also interested in is how open the world survived this. And it felt like the call was all around, like laying out a plan that is very much led by Carrie and Dodd. I was happy to see Dodd there. He's the new chief. I agree.
那么这些是我猜测他为什么在这次电话会议中参与度不高的原因。我认为当前大多数分析师和投资者最感兴趣的是全球如何度过这次危机。这次电话会议的内容似乎围绕着一项计划展开，这个计划非常由Carrie和Dodd主导。我很高兴看到Dodd在那里，他是新的负责人。我同意。
He's definitely stepping up in his role and maybe taking on some of the responsibilities that Daniel Merudo left behind when he's going to leave later in March. So it was good to have them there. One thing I want to see by the end of the year when focus changes on exclusives and deferred party marketplace again is I would like to have every day, obviously.
他肯定在扮演自己的角色时有所进步，或许还接管了丹尼尔·梅鲁多在三月离开后留下的一些职责。所以他们在那里是很好的。我希望到年底，当重点再次放在独占和延迟的第三方市场时，每天都能有所进展，显然这是我希望看到的。
And we'll see if that will happen. Thanks. We have a send-d here with a question and we also have a question in the discord we can get to. Classics. Hello. Thanks for taking the questions, guys. So just to follow up on the last question.
我们会看看那是否会发生。谢谢。我们在这里收到了一个带有问题的邮件，而在电报中也有一个问题，我们也会回答。你好。谢谢你们回答问题。所以，就跟上一个问题继续说。
So we know we are excited about the 3P marketplace and given the earnings call. You know, they have not mentioned anything. They want to just stray away from it. So how are you guys planning on getting, is there a way to get that data that the same the purchase from Open Door is happening in 3P, via 3P or via 1P marketplace? Is there a way that you guys are figuring it out like how we will be able to get data so that we know that this is happening in 3P or 1P? Thanks.
我们知道我们对第三方市场很兴奋，但在盈利电话中，他们并没有提到任何相关的信息。他们想要离开这个话题。那么你们打算如何获取数据呢？有没有一种方法可以获得来自Open Door的购买数据，无论是通过第三方市场还是第一方市场？你们是否已经找到了一种方法来获取数据，以便我们知道这是在第三方市场还是第一方市场上发生的？谢谢。
So how we are approaching data collection on the 3P site is we scrape all the homes that are listed on Open Door exclusives basically multiple times a day and some of those homes are Open Door owned and we see that they're pre-MLS homes that open their first list on exclusives for 14 days and then they go on the market. So we can observe if those 3rd party homes were sold by exclusives in that 14 day window or after that for the 3rd party homes, we basically see that there's a home that is not owned by Open Door and we can see how long it's listed there and if it goes into contract.
我们在3P（第三方）网站上进行数据收集的方法是，我们每天多次爬取Open Door独家上架的所有房屋，其中一些房屋是Open Door所有的。我们发现，这些房屋是预-MMLS（多组合列表服务，即公开房屋交易预期，后期归纳为一个平台上）。他们在独家上架14天后才挂到网上。因此，我们可以观察这些第三方房屋是否在这14天窗口期内被独家售出，或者在此之后售出。对于第三方房产，我们基本上看到那里有一座不是Open Door所有的房屋，并且我们可以看到它在那里挂了多久，如果进入合同的话。
Currently we see if a home that is listed goes into contract then from that point we add this home to an observed list and we see if this home actually ends up selling. Now there's a second aspect of this 3rd party marketplace which involves institutional investors and if the seller sells to an institutional investor which historically has been like 10% to 15% of Open Door sales, we cannot observe that.
目前我们会观察某个已上市的房子是否成功签订合同，并将其添加到观察列表中，之后我们再观察该房子是否最终成功售出。然而，在这个第三方市场中，还有一种情况是涉及到机构投资者，如果卖方将房产出售给机构投资者，而这种情况在Open Door销售中通常占10%到15%的比例，我们是无法观察到的。
So that is a gap in our data and we will need to rely on whatever Open Door tells us about the 3rd party marketplace here. So we only have part of the data that how the 3rd party marketplace actually works. I would say that it's the more important part. Like I'm happy they are making sales institutions but they will always be like a ceiling on that. Well if the 3rd party marketplace goes really well and the real sellers, real buyers, transacting on this marketplace with Open Door being just the party in between, that is where the Ultra Bull case comes in. That's what we're really interested in.
因此，这就是我们数据的一个缺口，我们需要依赖Open Door关于第三方市场的信息告诉我们。因此，我们只有第三方市场实际运作的部分数据，我认为这是更重要的部分。虽然我很高兴他们正在为机构销售创造业务，但这将始终是一个限制因素。如果第三方市场运作得非常好，真正的卖家、真正的买家在这个市场上交易，而Open Door只是在两者之间的协调方，这就是极限牛市的情况。这就是我们真正感兴趣的。
Yeah, no, that's a good starting point. So now if I have to think about it, now we can get in those regions that I'm not really sure about where they are with the 3p's. I believe there are 3 cities or 3 states. So we can have the inventory that Open Door owns in those states and then the listing that are off those lists. So that could be the 3p part and out of those, how many close it all goes into contract and then end up getting closed. We can get some sort of a percentage in those states, no? Am I missing anything? Sorry.
没错，那是个不错的起点。现在如果我要考虑的话，我们可以进入那些我不太确定它们所属区域的3P地区。我相信有3个城市或3个州。因此，我们可以对Open Door在这些州所拥有的存货进行清点，以及在这些州拥有的房源清单。那可能是3P的部分，然后从中有多少成交最终全部进入合同并完成交易。我们可以得到这些州的某种百分比，对吧？我有什么遗漏的吗？抱歉。
Yeah, we could get the percent of homes in those markets that are selling by the exclusive market place. And this is a number, at least for the first party homes that listen to exclusives that we have in the data to a dashboard. On the 3rd party homes, we don't really know what the total amount of people is that go through the funnel. We just see which end up listing and how many of those go into content and how many gets sold. I mean, there are not that a huge volume right now of homes here listing. So it's relatively small, but this is one thing we will be looking at and reporting is like, what is the conversion rate from being listed to going into contract and being sold just like we have the data as well for the first party homes.
我们可以从那些市场中卖出独家房屋的市场份额中得出百分比。对于我们数据面板中列出独家房屋的第一方房屋来说，这是一个数字。对于第三方房屋，我们并不真正知道漏斗中有多少人。我们只能看到哪些人最终列出房屋，有多少进入内容，以及有多少被销售。我是说，目前列出房屋的数量并不是很大。所以这是我们要关注和报告的一个方面，就像我们也为第一方房屋提供数据一样，我们会报告从列出到签约和销售的转化率。
Okay, okay, great. Thanks. And just one follow up on that. So what did you guys think? I just want to have one of your opinion on, you know, how Kerry went on about, okay, in 2024, we'll have a 10 billion from 1p and then, you know, adjusting net income positive. And she's only looking at that 1p marketplace. And she's not even summing up anything coming from 3p, right? What are your thoughts? What were your thoughts around that?
好的，好的，很好。谢谢。只想再追问一下，你们认为怎么样呢？我只是想听听你们对凯瑞在2024年时说的那段话的意见，她提到了从1p中获得100亿美元，然后将净收入调整为正值。她只看重这个1p市场，甚至没有计算任何从3p市场中得到的收益，你们有什么想法？你们对此有何看法？
Yeah, I, I mean, I think even in her own words, it was a, it was a conservative estimate regarding her expectations for 2024. I think, I think both Sebastian and I were a little, a little surprised about the revenue run rate guide, given that, you know, they're far above that number for both Q4 and Q1 in terms of top line guidance. But, but then again, it seemed like she was saying that they really don't intend to acquire very many homes in the near future, which, you know, obviously is going to bring down, bring down revenue. But I, I think if they actually are going to get 30% market share of the third party marketplace in the markets that exclusive is active. As I said earlier, that would be 4% of overall transaction volume if we're just doing DFW Houston and Austin. And they said that they're going to add more markets probably throughout the year. So, you know, I would expect that number to be at least around 10% plus by mid 2024. And if List with Open Door has a little bit more traction and is released in additional markets, it would be surprising for those to not contribute to the bottom line in some sort of, in some sort of meaningful way.
嗯，我觉得即使是她自己的话，她对2024年的期望也是保守估计。我们对营收的预估指导有些惊讶，因为从一线指导来看，Q4和Q1的收入都高于该数。但是，她似乎在说他们并不打算在近期收购太多房屋，这显然会降低收入。但是，如果他们真的在Exclusive活跃的市场上得到了第三方市场的30%份额，就像我之前说过的，在仅考虑DFW Houston和Austin的情况下，这将占总交易量的4%。他们还说他们可能会在今年内增加更多的市场。因此，我预计到2024年中期，这个数字至少会达到10%以上。如果List with Open Door有更多的市场吸引力并在其他市场发布，那么它会以某种有意义的方式为底线做出贡献，这也不足为奇。
Okay, thank you. Thank you. Hey, Tyler and Seb, thanks for taking my question. Obviously, we want to, you know, get through this phase and, you know, put the queue to cohort behind us. But my question is like, you know, what if mortgage rates go to like 8% and then let's pretend that, you know, all of the markets where they have a queue to cohort inventory. If the prices drop, let's say another 10 to 15% this summer, due to the mortgage rate impact, what would be the impact to Open Door's, you know, balance sheet and, you know, can they get through this period? Thank you.
好的，谢谢你们。谢谢你们。嗨，泰勒和塞布，谢谢你们回答我的问题。显然，我们想要度过这个阶段，让排队成为组群变成过去。但我的问题是，如果抵押利率达到8%，并且让我们假设所有有排队组群库存的市场价格下降了，比如今年夏天降了另外10到15％，这对Open Door的资产负债表会有什么影响，他们能度过这个时期吗？谢谢。
Hey, thanks. Thanks for the question. I think, I think, yeah, it would be, it would be concerning if we got into another situation similar to the summer of 2022. I think, I think Open Door probably wouldn't survive something like that if they were buying at the same volume that they were, you know, in that summer.
嘿，谢谢。感谢你的提问。我觉得，我觉得，如果我们进入类似2022年夏季的另一种情况，那将是令人担忧的。我认为如果Open Door以与当时夏季相同的规模购买房产，他们可能无法生存下来。
I think I posted a tweet the other day that in May, Open Door bought nine times as many homes as they did in January. And so I think there was, there were a lot of issues that led to Open Door having this year-long plus drag on their, on their business, on their cash and their margins.
我认为我前几天发布了一条推特，说五月份，开门公司购买的房屋数量是一月份的九倍。因此，我认为有很多问题导致开门公司在业务、现金和利润上出现了一年多的拖累。
I think one of them was, it was a historically hot market that accelerated basically into a brick wall, right? And so that's very different than today, which we can talk about sort of the macro backdrop of today, but it's a very different environment right now.
我认为其中一个是，它是一个历史上炙手可热的市场，基本上加速了到一个砖墙，对吧？所以这与今天非常不同，我们可以谈谈今天的宏观背景，但现在的环境非常不同。
意思是，说的是历史上炙手可热的市场已经出现问题，但今天的市场环境非常不同。
Two, they were buying so many homes at the time that the market crashed. They're not buying practically any homes right now. And I think when it comes to the Q2 offer cohort, we expect Open Door to be, you know, in the 95 plus percent of the way sold, you know, give or take a few hundred basis points of the Q2 offer cohort by the end of Q2.
第二，他们在市场崩盘时购买了如此多的房屋。现在他们几乎不再购买任何房屋。我认为在第二季度的报价中，我们预计开放门会在第二季度结束时已售出95％以上的房屋，大约还有几百基点的浮动。
And, you know, we're in March right now. So that's just a few more months away. And so the overhang for them, the total inventory that they actually have on their balance sheet right now is pretty low. So they are positioned unquestionably better right now for any sort of dislocation in the market.
现在是三月份了，你知道的。所以只有几个月就到了。因此，对于他们来说，他们现在实际上在资产负债表上拥有的总库存非常低。因此，无论市场出现任何紊乱，他们无疑处于更好的位置。
That's sort of the positioning part. The second piece is the macro, right? And like what is currently going on in the market? And, you know, mortgage rates are already above 7% I believe, or at least they were recently. So 8% doesn't seem so far away. Certainly wouldn't be a huge shock, right?
这是产品定位中的一部分。第二部分是宏观环境，对吧？现阶段市场发生的事情是什么？你知道，抵押贷款利率已经超过7％了，至少最近是这样。所以8％似乎并不遥远。当然不会引起太大震动，对吧？
But I think what's currently going on in the housing market is even though mortgage rates are up, inventory supply just continues to drop. And so I think that that's a huge buffer for prices, right? Because there's just so few supply and demand is actually the access that's being favored right now.
我认为目前房屋市场的情况是尽管房贷利率上升，但房源供应仍在持续下降。因此，我认为这是价格的一个巨大缓冲，因为供应很少，而需求实际上是受到青睐的。
So, you know, could we be in another situation where housing drops and quickly sure, but it just seems like that's kind of already happened. And certainly the delta, I think, couldn't really be much larger barring some sort of, you know, black swan event. I think the big run up to the hottest housing market to suddenly having a market where no deals were done. That's really what drove a lot of the collapse in, in, you know, the price of open doors equity in these homes.
那么，你知道，我们是否可能会遇到另一种房价下跌并迅速下降的情况，但似乎那种情况已经发生了。当然，除非发生某种黑天鹅事件，否则我认为增量不可能更大。我认为，曾经是最热房地产市场的大涨势头突然变成了市场上没有任何交易的情况。这正是Open Doors房屋产权价格崩溃的主要原因。
Yes. Thank you. Appreciate that answer.
是的，谢谢。非常感谢你的回答。
And I guess after that, Open.dead did have quite high margins at the end of Q2 last year. So they were preparing for, they had highest spread. They were preparing for something to happen, but not what actually happened.
我猜想在去年Q2末，Open.dead的利润率确实相当高。因此他们正在为某些事情做准备，并且他们具有最高的差价。他们正在准备发生的事情，但并非实际发生的事情。
Now we are, if we look at the spreads or the embedded margin, this is how we kind of observed that. For the newest cohorts, it's like another magnitude difference. Right there, they're really risk off and the purchases they are doing. They, they make sure they have enough buffer there that even if prices would drop 50%, things wouldn't go as bad as they did last year.
现在，如果我们看看借贷利差或嵌入式利润率，就可以发现这种情况。对于最新的收件人，这是另一种巨大的差异。他们真的很谨慎，并且购买时会确保有足够的缓冲，即使价格下跌50％，情况也不会像去年那样糟糕。
Right. Like you look at the, if you back out the contribution margin before interest of homes that opened or purchased. Beyond August, so anything from September and beyond the contribution profit margin is north of 10% most cases. And I think as a whole, it's certainly around that, that number.
没错。如果你排除了8月以后开业或购买的房屋的利息前贡献利润，从9月开始的所有贡献利润率在大多数情况下都超过了10%。我认为总体来说，它肯定在那个数字左右。
So it kind of gives you an idea that. If this, if this event didn't happen. Or if open door continues operating operating at this low volume, they can certainly do it at very high margin, even in a, even in a down market.
这句话表达的意思是，如果这个事件没有发生或Open Door继续以低容量运营，他们仍然可以在低迷的市场中以高利润运作。
See, I think that's fair, you know, you know, I'm a big bull, right? But my biggest concern is like, you know, in order to hit that 10 billion dollar run rate. You know, it's so it's 2.5 billion a quarter. They got to sell roughly, let's say, 7,500 homes a quarter. You know, they got to really be offering like 15% less because they got a account for the cost of borrowing. You know, at like a 15% drag, I don't know if I would sell my home to like open door. Right? And I am a bull. So, you know, I'm just worried that, you know, if it, if it does go to like 8%, then, you know, prices do, let's say drop like another 7 to 8%. And then the offers, right? You know, if the offers are ridiculously low, I don't even know if they can, you know, transact 8 billion, sorry, 8,000 homes a quarter for like another, let's say, you know, three to four quarters. And that's just going to impact their balance sheet quite a bit, right? So, they may have paid the raise capital or I don't know, there's a lot of uncertainty. And I'm just like a little bit worried.
我认为这很公平，你知道的，你知道吗，我是一个大牛，对吧？但我最担心的是，为了达到那每季25亿美元的营收目标。你知道，每个季度他们需要销售大约7500套房屋。你知道，他们必须真的提供15％左右的折扣，因为他们必须考虑借款成本。如果有15％的拖累，我不知道我是否会将我的房子卖给像Open Door这样的公司。而且我是个热心的支持者。所以，我只是担心，你知道，如果它真的到了8％，那么价格会再次下降大约7到8％。然后是报价，你知道吗？你知道，如果报价非常低，我甚至不知道他们是否能在接下来的3到4个季度内完成每个季度8000套住宅的交易。这将对他们的资产负债表产生相当大的影响。所以，他们可能需要筹集资本，或者我不知道，有很多不确定性。我只是有点担心。
I think that's a totally fair concern. And I think you bring up a lot of great points that are reasonable for the bear case. I will say, I think, one of the things that we've seen for open door is that they can actually transact in volume. And sometimes it's unclear where they choose to transact and why. But I will say, you know, situations like the Zillow partnership, as that's turned on in more marketplaces, that's a much broader funnel for purchase acquisitions. It's just a, it's just a much, much larger aperture of home sellers that are walking through open doors funnel. And I think that gives me a little bit more comfort.
我认为这是一个非常公正的关注点。我认为你提出了很多很好的观点，这些观点是合理的看法。我想说的是，我们已经看到开放门可以实际上进行大宗交易。有时不清楚他们选择在哪里进行交易以及为什么选择该地点。但我想说的是，像Zillow合作这样的情况，随着在更多的市场上的开放，这将为购买收购提供更广泛的漏斗。这只是一个更大的漏斗，有更多的房屋卖家从开放大门的漏斗中走过。我认为这让我更加放心。
I mean, the fact that it's only in two markets right now is unfortunate and like anything for open door, the more markets that they're active and actually active, not just like on paper active, but where they're, they're transacting in volume. The more that that happens and the more that that's divorced from a few concentrated markets, I think the more insulated open door is from these sorts of situations. But yeah, to your point, I think, I think in another really bad down market, anyone who's transacting in real estate is going to do poorly, but especially open door because they're trying to recover.
我的意思是，它目前只在两个市场上运营是不幸的，就像对于开放式门户（open door）的任何事情一样，越多市场参与，实际上活跃的市场越多，不仅在纸面上活跃，而是在市场上成交量大的地方。这种情况发生得越多，离开少数集中的市场，我认为开放式门户就越能避免这种情况。但是，是的，我认为在另一个真正不景气的房地产市场中，任何在房地产交易的人都会做得不好，但特别是开放式门户，因为他们试图恢复。
They're trying to get back on the saddle. They're going to make it out of this current situation, but I don't think they have the capital to get out of two. Right? And so I think it's going to be, it's going to be important to watch how they're navigating this. I'm sure your concerns are part of the reason why open door hasn't begun to meaningfully accelerate purchase volumes because they want to make sure that when they do, they're ready and they have trust and confidence in the data. So yeah, I know you wanted them to acquire more forms, but yeah, I think they should be conservative, just get through this period and hopefully see that on the side, that way, that way, they can get back to where they were.
他们正试图重新站起来。他们将走出目前的局面，但我认为他们没有足够的资本摆脱两难境地。对吧？因此，我认为观察他们如何应对这个局面非常重要。我相信你的顾虑是open door没有开始有意义的加速购买量的原因之一，因为他们想确保在这样做时，他们已经准备好并且对数据有信任和信心。所以，是的，我知道你希望他们收购更多的形式，但我认为他们应该保守一些，只是通过这段时期，并希望在这方面看到一些好的迹象，这样他们就可以回到他们原来的位置。
Anyway, thank you. Appreciate the answers. Hey, RT. You have a question for us. Yes, I do. Thanks for hosting this call. I had a question specifically around Founders Fund with Keith Roboi being really the catalyst for open door and then he expresses a concern with the board of directors. He expresses concern with the move to a wartime CEO, not in those specific words. And being Founders Fund, right, they'd back Founders having the Founders step down. Have you had any updates on how much influence Founders Fund has on the board of directors? And any direction that Keith Roboi may still be giving open door because their advice is kind of priceless at times, especially during moments like this.
无论如何，谢谢你。感谢你的回答。嘿，RT，你有一个问题要问我们。是的，我有。感谢你主持这个电话会议。我有一个关于Founders Fund的问题，Keith Roboi实际上是开放门户的催化剂，然后他对董事会表达了担忧。他对将公司交给一位战时CEO表示了担忧，虽然没有用那些具体的词语。而且，作为Founders Fund，他们会支持创始人下台。您是否有任何更新，Founders Fund在董事会上具有多少影响力？Keith Roboi可能仍然会给出关于开放门户的建议，因为他们的建议在这样的时刻非常宝贵。
Founders Fund doesn't have a board seat anymore. I mean, sorry, Founders Fund never has had a board seat on open door. I think it was through coastal adventures that Keith was on the board when he left the company. And then Kosa gave up the board seat. And so Keith had to step down from his board seat as well. And to what extent Keith has impact on the company is really hard to tell. I think the last thing we heard from him on Twitter was at the end of last year before Kerry took over as CEO. He was involved in some advisory role. At least that's what he said on Twitter. He is not involved in the day to day.
创始人基金不再拥有开放门的董事席位。我是说，很抱歉，创始人基金从未在开放门任职董事。我认为是通过海岸探险公司，当Keith离开公司时，他才在董事会任职。然后Kosa放弃了董事席位。因此，Keith不得不辞去他的董事职位。至于Keith对公司的影响程度，真的很难说。我认为我们最后从Twitter上听到他的声音是在去年底，凯里担任CEO之前。他参与了一些咨询工作。至少这是他在Twitter上说的。他不参与日常工作。
We know that he seems doesn't have any special insight there. So I was just curious if we knew if any of the board of directors that are on the board right now, have ties to Founders Fund. Not like directly from Founders Fund, but if they're Founders Fund friendly. The latest tweet I saw from Keith was almost indirect, but it looked like very direct on open door where he was again pretty bullish on the $20 price. And that was I think about three or four weeks ago. Thank you.
我们知道他似乎在那里没有任何特殊的洞察力。所以我只是好奇我们是否知道现在董事会上的任何董事会成员与创始人基金有关联，不是直接来自创始人基金，而是他们是否友好于创始人基金。我最近在 Keith 的一条推文中看到的几乎是间接的，但在 Open Door 上看起来很明显，他对20美元的价格再次表示看好。我想那是大约三到四个星期以前。谢谢。
Hey, Art. Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. And obviously, Keith has accomplished quite a bit and Founders Fund as well. From what I understand, Eric and Keith still interact and they're still friendly. And Eric has a board seat. Obviously doesn't have the CEO title anymore, but it's still President's marketplace. But yeah, I think this is a tough time for the company and that sort of advice and experience would be, would be priceless, as you said. Thank you. And I think the other board seats that Open Door has with GGV capital and I think it's Excel Ventures. They're not found unfriendly.
嗨，Art。是的，我觉得这是一个很好的问题。很明显，Keith和Founders Fund已经取得了相当大的成就。据我所知，Eric和Keith仍然有联系，而且他们还是朋友。Eric仍然拥有董事会席位，虽然不再担任CEO，但仍然是总统的市场。但是，我认为这对公司来说是一个艰难的时期，这种建议和经验就像你所说的一样是无价之宝。谢谢。Open Door在GGV Capital和Excel Ventures拥有的其他董事会席位是友好的。
Like, I, we don't know what's happening in the board. Nobody tells us. But I don't think they would like push out a founder without them having a saying. It just feels like it was more of a mutual agreement that Carrie should take over CEO. But who knows, we might know in a few. A few years. Any other questions? You have one question from. Oh, sorry. Oh, no, you're good. Yeah, thanks for hosting the space guys. It's always a great resource.
我们并不知道董事会里面发生了什么。没有人告诉我们。但是我不认为他们会在没有创始人发表意见的情况下将其排除在外。感觉更像是一个共同商定，让 Carrie 接任 CEO。但是谁知道呢，也许几年后我们会知道。还有其他问题吗？你有一道问题。哦，对不起。噢，没事。是的，感谢你们主办这个空间，它总是一个很好的资源。
But I think you touched on it lightly, but just to reiterate and make it clear. The 30 year mortgage rates at, you know, it's over 7% now. And I just, I can't imagine a lot of people are selling their homes, especially if they have a lower rate locked in. And, you know, of course, fewer will be able to purchase, you know, at the current rate. And do you forecast the I buyers having difficulty finding quality properties? And is there a possibility that Open Door could run out of homes, per se? If rates continue to rise, assuming they want to sell around 7500 homes a quarter.
但我认为你稍微提及了一下它，我想再强调一下并让它更清楚。你知道，30年抵押贷款利率已经超过了7%。我不敢想象有很多人会出售房屋，特别是如果他们已经锁定了较低的利率。当然，更少的人能够以当前的利率购买房屋。你是否预测“i买家”（注：指在线买房公司）会面临难以找到高质量房产的困难？如果利率继续上升，Open Door是否有可能没有房源？假设他们每个季度想要销售约7500套房屋。
Yeah, I think that definitely could happen. I think, you know, we're in a situation where the current expectation for home sale, home sold in 2023 is like 50% lower than previous years, the most recent previous years. I think we're kind of at a standstill with residential real estate right now. And the higher you raise mortgage rates, the less affordable, you know, these homes get. I will say that there are some ways that Open Door can try to have elevated volumes as compared to the rest of the housing industry. And we saw this in the fall of last year after home prices started to collapse and mortgage rates for rising.
是的，我认为这种情况肯定会发生。我认为我们现在处于一种局面，房屋销售的预期在2023年比最近几年要低50%。我认为目前住宅房地产处于停滞状态。而且，如果抬高抵押贷款利率，这些房屋的价格就会变得更加买不起。不过，我要说，Open Door 有一些方法可以提高其销售量，与房地产行业的其他公司相比更具竞争力。我们在去年秋天看到，房价开始下跌，抵押利率上涨后，Open Door 的销售量有所增加。
Open Door began buying smaller homes or cheaper homes, right? Cheaper at least on a year over your basis. So they moved from buying on average $350,000 to buying on average $300,000 homes. And I think on the surface it looks like, okay, they're widening spreads, right? And so they're going to insulate their margins. But on a per square foot basis and on how many bedrooms, how many baths, how many pools, if you look at all those metrics, the homes were cheaper homes, right?
Open Door开始购买更小或更便宜的房屋，对吗？至少在一年的基础上便宜一些。所以他们从平均购买价值35万美元的房屋转向购买平均价值30万美元的房屋。表面上看起来像是他们在扩大利润差，因此他们将保护自己的利润率。但是，如果按每平方英尺、卧室数量、浴室数量、游泳池数量等指标来看，这些房屋实际上是更便宜的房屋。
And I think that kind of goes along with the idea that there's probably the median home price in the United States, or at least what's most commonly, maybe we'll call it the mode, what's most commonly transacted when mortgage rates rise, or a cheaper home, right? Because that's going to be the place that people gravitate towards because that's the home that they can afford, because they've lost buying power. I think that's potentially an avenue where open doors been able to have elevated volumes relative to the rest of the market, certainly in a market by market basis. But yeah, if you get in a situation where mortgage rates are 8%, 10%, and homeowners are like, I have a 3% mortgage rate.
我认为这与美国可能存在的中位房价有关，或者至少是最常见的房价，也许可以称之为众数，当房贷利率上涨或者房价更便宜时会更普遍出现。这是因为人们会倾向于购买自己负担得起的房子，因为他们的购买力下降了。我认为这可能是开放门能相对于其他市场拥有较高交易量的途径。但是如果房贷利率上升到8%, 10%, 那些拥有3%房贷利率的房主可能会面临困境。
I'm not going to move, right? Those are situations where people just stop moving, right? And so you kind of get into this more desperate situation. I think that would be bad for anyone in the residential real estate industry. You'd be bad for agents, you'd be bad, certainly for open door. And I think it would be really challenging for consumers as well. We have a question here or two questions from the discord. Let's start with the second one. Jacob is asking, why do you think Las Vegas market in particular is performing so poorly? It seems like even the post Q2 cohort is performing below the market. Below other markets.
我不会去搬家，对吧？那些情况下人们会突然停止搬家，对吧？这种情况对任何从事住宅房地产行业的人来说都会很糟糕。对于房地产经纪人来说不好，对于“Open Door”来说也不好。而且我认为对消费者来说也会非常具有挑战性。我们在Discord上有一个问题或两个问题。让我们从第二个问题开始。Jacob问为什么你认为拉斯维加斯市场表现如此糟糕？似乎甚至是Q2后的同类市场表现低于其他市场。
Do you have an opinion on that, Tyler, on the last thing you guys were keeping? Yeah, I think Las Vegas probably did a head fake. So I think Las Vegas probably had a false bottom in home prices. And so even when open doors started buying fewer homes, the water spreads, Las Vegas just kept going down. I think San Francisco did a similar thing. Just the nadir or the trench of the price valuation was lower than they thought. Which is why in the worst markets, that's the phenomenon that we've seen. Is that even through December in some cases, the margin on these cohorts of homes are still well below average, which means that it's going to take longer for them to dig out of those markets.
I will say Phoenix, it looks like they're at least in their most recent cohorts since like September, they're definitely writing that ship. It's just because they had so many homes at the time that the market crashed. It's just going to take more months for them to get back to normal. Yeah, it's interesting that especially on Twitter Las Vegas has a lot of eyes. Is that landslamp? Yeah.
泰勒，你对于你们上一次讨论的事情有何看法？我认为拉斯维加斯可能做了一个假动作，他们在房价上有一个错误底部。即使Open Doors开始购买更少的房屋，房价依然下跌。我认为旧金山做了类似的事情，价格的谷底比他们想像的更低。这就是为什么在最糟糕的市场中，这就是我们所看到的现象。即使到了12月，某些情况下，这些租户的边际利润仍然低于平均水平，这意味着他们要花更长的时间才能摆脱这些市场。
我想说凤凰城至少在最近的租户中，比如在九月以来的租户，他们正在改变局面。这是因为在市场崩溃时，他们有很多房屋。他们只需花更多时间才能恢复正常。有趣的是，特别是在Twitter上，拉斯维加斯有很多关注度。这是Landslamp吗？是的。
Well, the good thing is open doors more in more than two markets and more than two states. I think market expansion that they did in the last few years really is helping them out here. And the second question was, the revenue projections for Q1 are between $2.45 billion to $2.6 billion. From the data he's seeing, it seems to be collecting his own data. It seems like revenue has been should be a lot higher.
好消息是，开放的门在两个以上的市场和两个以上的州展现了更多的机会。我认为他们最近几年的市场扩张确实对他们有所帮助。第二个问题是，Q1的收入预计在24.5亿到26亿美元之间。从他所看到的数据来看，似乎在收集自己的数据。收入似乎应该高得多。
I guess maybe Thailand can go into what we're seeing for Q1 in terms of revenue or home sold a little bit. But one thing that is important to note, it came up multiple times in this call today, is the $10 billion revenue run rate that they were talking about. I think one important sign that they're sending us here by telling us we will be at that revenue rate by mid 2024 is that we should probably not expect that revenue run rate for H2. It's very likely that we will be waiting below that. And it's all because of the depressed acquisitions that we are seeing.
我猜泰国在营收或销售房屋方面可能会与我们在第一季度所看到的情况类似。但重要的一点是，在今天的电话会议上多次被提到的是他们谈及的100亿美元的营收增加速度。他们告诉我们，到2024年中期，我们将达到这一营收水平，这是他们发出的一个重要讯号，我们可能不应该期望后半年能达到这个营收水平。这是因为我们目前看到的收购活动萎靡不振。
So, Q1 revenue. Tyler, what are you thinking about Q1 revenue? I'll say since Open Door has been public every single time that they've guided for revenue, it's been conservative. I don't think they've missed on the top line in any material manner once. So, we expect them to almost always be very conservative on their revenue guidance. And that's, I mean, Kerry Wheeler was CFO that entire time. Right? So now she's CEO. I don't think that there's going to be any stylistic changes in the estimates on that account because I really doubt that Eric wasn't charged with that.
Q1收入问题，泰勒，你对Q1收入有什么看法？我认为自从Open Door上市以来，每次他们引导收入，都非常保守。我认为他们从未在收入方面有过实质性的失误，因此我们预计他们几乎总是非常保守地引导他们的收入。这个时间段Kerry Wheeler一直是首席财务官，现在她成为了CEO。因此，我认为在估计方面不会有任何风格上的变化，因为我真的怀疑Eric不会负责处理这个问题。
I would say the thing that shocked us most from the guide was not the revenue, but was the margin guide. Right? If you back out, you know, negative 360 adjusted, negative 360 million adjusted EBITDA, the negative 5% adjusted gross margin that you get to is a shocking figure relative to the Q4 performance relative to the data we're seeing for Q1. And I think it's, it was under under discussion, the call, no analysts had any follow-up questions for it. I think that's the area of contention where I, I feel like I just, I'm constantly just staring at those numbers trying to make sense of how that could possibly be.
我认为最让我们震惊的不是收入，而是利润率预测。你同意吗？如果你把负的360亿美元调整后的EBITDA和负的5%调整后的毛利率排除在外，你将会得到一个令人震惊的数字，相对于Q4表现和我们看到的Q1数据来说。我认为这是电话讨论中的争议点，没有分析师会有任何后续问题。我觉得这是一个有争议的地方，我一直在盯着这些数字试图弄清楚这是怎么可能的。
But the revenue, yeah, I mean, it's conservative, but, but not outside the ballpark for for their prior quarters. All right. It's a do one more question and wrap it up for today. We have Javardo.
但是收入，嗯，我是说，它很保守，但并没有超出他们之前季度的预期。好的，做一个更多的问题，今天就结束了。我们有Javardo。
简单翻译：收入保守，但没超过之前季度预期。最后一个问题为Javardo。
So, Jannin, this is a good question for us. Hey, hey, Sebastian and, and Tyler, I got a question just very general on the third party marketplace. Could you guys talk about what's the advantage that open their has with the position that they're in and how it would be difficult for a competitor to get into the same space. I mean, the idea that I have for the third party marketplace is that you're getting rid of intermediaries by not having a real turn on the cell set on the by side. We just have open door that with scale, hopefully, amortizes costs among all the transactions that they do.
所以，Jannin，这对我们来说是一个很好的问题。嘿，嘿！Sebastian和Tyler，我有一个非常普遍的问题，关于第三方市场。你们能否谈一谈开放式市场的优势所在，以及竞争对手进入同一领域会有多么困难？我的理解是，第三方市场的理念是通过不在买方或卖方上施加额外的盈利，从而通过开放市场来消除中间商。我们只需要开放的门，希望通过交易规模来分摊成本。
And then I think the idea that I have is that if you're a seller, they'll help you with the whole repair process and simplify preparing the home for the buyer and on the buyer side. I guess they help with guaranteeing the transaction and making it smooth and hopefully digitizing all the paperwork. Do I have the right idea? Yeah, hey, Javardo. Thanks for the question. I think it sounds like there's maybe two parts of this question. One is what's the unique advantage that open door has in building a third party marketplace relative to peers and then also what's the value proposition for the seller.
然后我认为我的想法是，如果你是卖家，他们将帮助整个修复过程并简化为买家准备房屋的过程，同时也会帮助保证交易，并使其变得顺畅，希望将所有纸质工作数字化。我理解正确吗？是的，嗨，Javardo。谢谢你的问题。我认为这个问题可能有两个方面。一是开放门相对于同行在建立第三方市场方面有什么独特的优势，另一个方面是对卖家的价值主张。
So I'll start with the first one. I think what's unique about open door that I think what makes it so that Zillow, for example, couldn't build this is that open door is offering a price for every single one of the homes that are listed on this marketplace. And so no matter what happens, no matter if open door can't aggravate any more offers for these homeowners, they always have an offer in their back pocket, which is worth something.
我会从第一个开始。我认为开放大门的独特之处在于，它提供了每个在这个市场上列出的家庭的价格，而这正是让Zillow无法建立这个市场的原因。所以无论发生什么，即使开放大门不能为这些房主提供更多报价，他们始终有一个价值的报价备胎。
And I would argue worth something significant, right? Always knowing that you can you can take an offer no matter what I think gives you a lot more leverage in the transaction. So the reason that the Zillows can't build this third party market place is because they exited I buying. And you know, perhaps offer pad could build this as well if they have aspirations to do so.
我认为这在交易中值得一定的重视，对吧？总是知道无论我怎么想，你都可以接受交易，这会给你更多的谈判筹码。所以 Zillows 不能建立第三方市场的原因是因为他们退出了 I Buying。也许 Offer Pad 也有建立这种市场的愿望，他们也可以这样做。
But you certainly need a decent a decent set of or decent scale to make this kind of thing happen. Certainly in the markets that you're operating. And so perhaps offer pad could do this and in some of their larger markets or as they scale themselves. But I think to answer your second part of your question is what's the value prop for the seller.
但你肯定需要一套不错的设备或规模，才能让这种事情发生。特别是在你运营的市场上。也许Offerpad可以在他们较大的市场或其自身扩张时做到这一点。但我认为回答你问题的第二部分，即卖方的价值主张是什么。
I mean, open doors third party marketplaces. If you're a homeowner, you send in pictures and information on the home and open door just goes out and gets offers for you, right? Including one from them and open door acts as your realtor.
我的意思是打开第三方市场。如果你是房主，你可以提供房屋的照片和信息，开门就会为你获取报价，包括他们自己的一个报价，作为你的经纪人进行代理。
And you pay 5% but the current model is that open door gives you back 2% so it really only costs 3% normally for the home seller. It's 6 to 5%. So there's there's a lot of value in that. But I think this is this is what home selling should be right like home buying is different home buying is a much more.
你需要支付5%，但是目前的模式是开门回馈你2%，所以对于卖家来说，实际上只需要支付3%的费用。这相当于6比5%。所以这个价值还是很高的。我认为这就是房屋销售所应该的，而房屋购买则是不同的，购买房屋要更复杂些。
I've said this before selling is finance, buying is romance right buying your home can't be broken down into something something as as 2 dimensional is money right and that's that's part of the reason that realtor has said that open door needs them to make their business model work.
我曾经说过：销售是金融，购买则是浪漫。对于买房这个问题，它不可能被简单地归结为纯粹的金钱问题，这也是为什么房地产经纪人声称Open Door需要他们的原因之一。因此，购买你的家园是一项非常复杂的决策。
You just need more to make the buying experience magical and so just making it all offline. I think we're a few years away from that certainly but but the selling part it's just finance right it's just I want to get as many offers as possible and I'm going to choose the best one or I'm going to be able to sell to the group that I want to.
你只需要更多的元素来创造一个神奇的购物体验，所以可以把所有的事情都放在线下完成。我认为这种情况可能还需要几年的时间才能实现，但是销售部分只是财务问题，它只是想尽可能地获得更多的报价，然后找到最好的那一个，或者向我想要的群体销售。
And open door has all of these eyeballs from home shoppers. It has all of its institutional partners and so it can accumulate all these offers for these for these homeowners which creates a really great value proposition because nothing else exists like it. And it's it's easy. It's hassle free. It's certain because you always know you have an offer.
"开放门户"拥有所有家庭购物者的目光。它拥有所有机构合作伙伴，因此它可以为这些房主积累所有这些优惠，这创造了一个真正伟大的价值主张，因为没有其他类似的东西。而且它很容易，没有麻烦，保证你总是知道有一个报价。
And I think that's why we're really excited about the third party marketplace if and when it it scales to the to the size that we think it would be. And I would add to that that Zillow is very dependent on realtor's in their business model and on emiluses right.
我认为这就是为什么我们十分兴奋于第三方市场的原因，如果它的规模达到我们所期望的程度的话。同时我还想强调的是，Zillow在他们的商业模式中非常依赖于房地产经纪人和emiluses的支持。
Zillow had many many rights with emilus providers in the past that tried to pressure them into certain directions and obviously that would probably not go much better if Zillow would try something similar or or if they would try to cut out the agents that are financing the whole company with their add dollars right it's a it's a difficult position to be in as Zillow if you want to push.
在过去，Zillow与一些房地产服务提供商有过很多权利，这些提供商试图向他们施加压力，使他们朝某些方向发展。显然，如果Zillow尝试类似的事情，或者试图削减资助整个公司的广告投入的代理商，情况可能并不会好转，对于Zillow而言，这是一个困难的处境，如果他们想要前进。
If you want to change the system while you're taxing the system currently and how you stay company. It's the classic counter positioning mode right like Hamilton Helmer's counter positioning mode if Zillow tried to compete or tried to create the same product it would be cannibalizing its its golden goose.
如果你希望在纳税并且维持公司的情况下改变系统，那么这就是经典的对立定位模式。就像Hamilton Helmer的对立定位模式一样，如果Zillow试图竞争或创建相同的产品，那么它就会在妨碍它的核心业务。
And I guess we could go into like more detailed like one thing that I think a lot of people are an estimate is how advanced open doors pricing engineers and I know a lot of people will laugh now and point to the losses that they made last year.
我想我们可以更详细地谈谈一件事，那就是很多人低估了开放式车门定价工程师的技术水平。我知道很多人现在会笑话他们去年的亏损。
But the important differences if you're pricing for marketplace you don't have to forecast free four months into it in advance and that kind of back out the actual cash price that you can give a seller while you take the risk.
但是，如果你是针对市场定价，你不需要提前预测四个月的免费时间，并在你承担风险的同时反推出你可以给卖家的实际现金价格。
No, you just price the home as if would have been priced right now it would sell right now and that's the price that is on exclusives that the price where the buyers that the buyer see for the third party marketplace and they're enormously good at that and they have a lot of a lot of a priority data that nobody else has because they've inspected millions of homes over the last eight nine years and if they collected more data on that that probably anybody in the US has on on on real estate or residential real estate and that is really worth something and that should result in a bad experience for buyers and sellers in the spirit party marketplace as well.
不，您只需按照现在的市价定价房屋，这样房屋就可以立刻卖出，这也是专属房屋的价格，即买家在第三方市场看到的价格。他们在这方面非常擅长，并且拥有大量的优先数据，这是其他人没有的，因为他们在过去的八九年中检查了数百万套房屋。如果他们收集到了更多的数据，可能比美国其他人在房地产或住宅房地产方面的数据还要多，这确实很有价值，应该会给第三方市场的买家和卖家带来良好的体验。
Unless we have another short burning question I think we can wrap it up for for today. Tyler do you have any closing statements for us?
除非我们有其他简短的问题需要解答，否则我认为今天的讨论可以结束了。Tyler，你有任何结束语吗？
My closing argument yeah I think well one I appreciate you all being here and and your questions. I would say globally this is not the end to 2022 that I think any of us who are constructive on open door we're hoping for. This housing dislocation the downturn hurt it was it was a deep cut and I think a lot of open doors original thesis has been dented in and I think there's reason to question what's going on right and they've lost a lot of leadership at the top there's been shuffling in the organization there's been layoffs and in the macro situation is is tough to for anyone in the in technology but particularly residential real estate space all that said the metrics that we're seeing every day on data door show us that the company is getting better week on week and they have been since mid November and so that I mean margins margins are improving.
我的结论陈述，我感谢你们所有人的出席和提问。我认为整个世界不只是我们这些对开放门持建设性态度的人所期望的2022年的终结。这次住房危机的影响很大，造成了深刻的伤害，我认为开放门最初的投资论点已经受到了损害，我们有理由质疑其中的原因。他们失去了很多高层管理人员，组织内部也进行了大规模的调整和裁员。对于科技行业，尤其是住宅房地产领域来说，宏观经济形势也很严峻。尽管如此，每天我们看到的数据指标表明，从去年11月中旬开始，企业的表现逐渐变好，此情况正在持续。这意味着毛利率正在提高。
It seems like even embedded margins of their of their q2 cohort inventory around the rise as well either because they've sold off the worst of them or because there has been a little bit of HPA early in 2023. But either way it seems like they're improving and and that they're going to get through this with the current cash position they have and certainly all the comments by management suggests that they they believe that they are going to get through this. I don't know what that means for the stock price obviously you know that's that's not my job and and I wish I could do that but I but I can't but.
似乎他们的Q2队列库存嵌入边际也在上升，这可能是因为他们已经将最差的产品出售了，或者是因为2023年初有一点点高层面积，但无论如何，似乎他们正在改善，并且他们将凭借现有的现金头寸度过这一时期，并且管理层的所有评论都表明他们相信他们将度过难关。我不知道这对股票价格意味着什么，显然，这不是我的工作，我希望我能这样做，但我不能。
But it seems like currently today open doors still trading like a company that's not going to make it and Sebastian and I feel otherwise and it's difficult to tread that line especially publicly because we want to be as honest as possible about the data we want to be honest about when we're disappointed and when we're excited but hopefully hopefully you can kind of see that. At the very least we're trying to be honest about it and we are we are doing the best we can to make sure that the data that we're presenting are as accurate as possible but we do believe in this company and and the long term the long term opportunity that they're trying to meet in residential real estate which is a very very broken industry.
但现在开放门似乎仍在像一个注定会倒闭的公司一样交易，而且Sebastian和我有所不同，这很难在公开场合言传身教，因为我们希望尽可能诚实地表达数据，我们想说我们失望和兴奋的时候要诚实，但是希望你能看出来，至少我们在努力诚实，我们正在尽最大的努力确保我们呈现的数据尽可能准确，但我们确实相信这家公司，长远来看，他们在为居民房地产解决一个非常非常脆弱的行业。
Right thank you everyone make sure to subscribe to the data door front porch podcast that we do by weekly now on on YouTube on Spotify and if you just want to ask more questions or follow all the research work we do make sure to join our discord on data door that I am slash community and see you soon. Bye.
大家好，非常感谢大家！请务必订阅我们的“Data Door Front Porch”播客节目，我们现在每两周会在YouTube和Spotify平台上播出。如果您想问更多的问题或关注我们所做的所有研究工作，请加入我们的Data Door社区Discord。再见！