LIVE: Opendoor Q1'2023 Earnings Discussion & AMA
发布时间 2023-05-07 21:52:53 来源
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Recording of our Discussion & AMA live on Twitter Spaces - May 4, 2023. Please like and subscribe!
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So, Open Door just reported earnings today. It's been a bit of a tough run for Open Door since its past summer when there was pretty steep and rapid decline in home demand which led to the same happening to home prices in Open Door was left with a lot of inventory that wasn't worth as much as it paid for it. So it's still feeling the aftershock or the after effects of that decline in inventory value and Q1 came out, earnings came out today, beat on the top line, beat on the bottom line at least with the adjusted numbers.
今天，Open Door 刚刚公布了其收益报告。自去年夏季以来，Open Door 面临着一些困难，当时家庭需求出现了非常陡峭和迅速的下降，这导致 Open Door 的房价也同样下降，而它所拥有的库存物品的价值也不再如之前高昂。因此，公司仍然感受到了库存价值的下降所带来的余波或后遗症，在第一季度财报公布时，顶线和底线都超出了预期，至少调整后的数字是如此。
So highlights revenue of 3.1 billion, gross profit of 170 million, although that includes evaluation adjustment. The adjusted gross margin was negative 3.3%. Adjusted EBITDA, negative 341 million. They purchased 1750 homes and they had an inventory balance of 2.1 billion down quite a bit from or year over year. The guidance came in sequentially much better with regard to the adjusted EBITDA. So revenue was almost cut in half, Q2 revenue guide of 1.8 billion down from 3.1. But the adjusted EBITDA guide was a 100, negative 190 million, an improvement from negative 340 in this quarter.
亮点是总营收31亿元，毛利润为1.7亿美元，但这包括评估调整。调整后的毛利率为负3.3%。调整后的EBITDA为负3.41亿美元。他们购买了1750套房屋，并且库存余额为21亿美元，比去年同比下降了很多。关于调整后的EBITDA，指南顺序上的表现要好得多。因此，营收几乎减半，第二季度营收指南为18亿美元，从31亿美元下降。但是，调整后的EBITDA指南为负1亿美元，比本季度的负3.4亿美元有所改善。
So I think globally it was a pretty short call. There were not a lot of questions and they kind of went through it. It sounds like they're very kind of buckled down and focusing on writing the ship. But I think that there was a lot of interesting strategic points and pearls that they mentioned that are worth talking about today.
我觉得，总体来说，那通电话的时间很短。并没有太多的问题，他们也很快地解决了。听起来他们非常专注于振兴公司，重振生机。但是，他们提到的一些有趣的战略要点和珍珠，今天值得我们讨论。
So some of the biggest ones I would say are that open door said that they plan to maintain double digit spreads on purchase homes that they purchase for their balance of 2023. And in conjunction with that, that they're planning on acquiring roughly 1,000 homes per month for the rest of the year as well.
我认为其中最重要的一些是，开门计划继续保持2023年购买的住房的双位数差额。与此同时，他们还计划在今年剩下的时间内每月收购大约1000套房屋。
I think both of those are probably the biggest updates from the quarter because it's strategically very different from what they've done in the past. And Kerry was pretty explicit about how many homes they intend to purchase. And obviously 1,000 homes a month is sub scale relative to what we have come to think of open door as.
我认为这两件事可能是季度里最重要的更新，因为它们的战略与过去非常不同。Kerry非常明确地表达了他们打算购买的房屋数量。显然，相对于我们所认为的开放门面积，每月购买1,000个住房规模较小。
But either way, lots, lots I think here to talk about and I'm happy to dive into any of these points. But maybe we start just seeing if anybody has any questions and if not, then I'll kind of continue on.
无论如何，我认为有很多事情可以讨论，我很愿意深入研究这些问题。但或许我们可以先看看是否有人有问题，如果没有，那么我就会继续讲下去。
Well, if you have any questions, feel free to request to speak and we can bring you up here. But maybe I also took some notes. Maybe let's start with acquisition case. That's quite interesting. So Kerry said they will stay at 1,000 homes per month for the remainder of the year. But at the same time, I think there was a follow-up question on costs and how they will vote next year.
如果你有任何问题，请随时要求发言，我们可以把你请上来。但可能我也做了一些笔记。也许我们可以从收购案开始讨论。这很有趣。Kerry说他们将在今年剩下的时间里保持每月1,000个房屋的数量。但同时，我认为还有一个跟进问题是关于成本以及他们明年如何投票的。
So they kind of mentioned that they will only increase marketing spent Q1, 2024 and the basic data will move that increase in marketing spent, they will go to kind of the 2019 levels of a 10-billion dollar run rate where they want to be adjusted income profitable by mid 2024.
他们有点提到他们只会在2024年第一季度增加营销支出，基本数据会推动营销支出的增加，他们会达到每年100亿美元的运行率，这是他们想在2024年中期实现调整后盈利的水平。
Yeah, I think I think one of the tough parts of that for me or the part that I'm kind of scratching my head on the math about is if you're acquiring 1,000 homes a month, the most homes you could sell in a quarter, I mean, just mathematically is 3,000, right?
是的，我认为我在这方面的难点或者让我有些苦恼的部分，就是如果你每个月收购了1,000个房屋，在一个季度内你最多能卖掉的房屋数量，仅仅是从数学上来看就是3,000个，对吧？
And so if you're selling 3,000 homes at $400,000 at home, that's 1.2 billion. And so if you're getting 10% adjusted gross margins on that, let's say that you're getting 120 million in gross profit, 90 million is currently the op-ex. And that doesn't include selling or holding costs, which is usually 4% of revenue.
如果你在国内以40万美元的价格销售3,000套住房，那么总额为12亿美元。如果你在这笔生意中获得了10%的调整后毛利率，那么你的总毛利为1.2亿美元。其中，经营支出目前为9000万美元。这还不包括销售或持有成本，通常为收入的4%。
So basically what they're saying is that for Q3 and Q4, even if they have really excellent gross margins, they will not be profitable quarters by any stretch of the imagination. And even if you get to the 10 billion run rate, you would need to have, I mean, that's still only 2.5 billion a quarter, right? So you'd need to have probably closer to like 10 to 15% gross margins if you were going to be breakeven at that level.
基本上，他们说的是对于第三季度和第四季度，即使它们有非常出色的毛利率，也不会在任何意义上是盈利的季度。即使你达到了100亿收入的水平，每个季度只有25亿，对吗？因此，如果想要在这个水平上达到收支平衡，你可能需要更接近于10%到15%的毛利率。
So I mean, the spreads have to be pretty wide for that to make sense. We're bringing down the costs, which is what they mentioned they're working on. Right, but they're not. They're not going to be bringing down. I mean, they said that the op-ex was going to be probably a little bit higher next year, especially with marketing. Yeah. But to your point, there's parts in that like selling and holding costs that go into the contribution profit that it seems like they're trying to get stable improvements, 100 basis point improvement and cost there specifically.
我的意思是，为了让这有意义，（市场）价差必须相当大。我们要降低成本，这也是他们宣称正在努力的。但实际上他们并没有。他们不会下降。我的意思是，尤其是在市场营销方面，他们说运营成本可能会稍微高一些。但就你的观点而言，似乎他们正在努力稳定贡献利润中销售和持有成本方面的100个基点（即1个百分点）的提高。
So yes, if they were able to add 100 basis points of cost savings, that would be material for $10 billion run rate. But basically, they said the expectations that they're not going to scale up this year any time soon. They want for mortgage rates to stabilize, which means they don't have to be much lower. It's just a volatility has to go down, right? They want the housing market volatility to normalize and get sellers back. The big problem is in the market, there's not enough sellers. And they expect that to get better next year. That's a big assumption.
是的，如果他们能够实现100个基点的成本节省，那对于100亿美元的营收规模来说是很重要的。但基本上，他们表示他们不会很快在今年扩大规模。他们希望抵押贷款利率稳定，这意味着不必降得太低。只是波动性必须降低，对吧？他们希望住房市场波动性能够正常化，并让卖家回归。市场中的大问题是卖家不够。他们预计明年会有所改善，这是一个巨大的假设。
This is also, I thought one of the most interesting parts that they mentioned strategically, you just were talking about how there's no sellers, right? Inventory is locked up. And they talked on the call about this opportunity to identify latent sellers or sellers who, homeowners who plan to sell their home at some point. But they, it wasn't the right time or didn't have the energy or they were worried about home values, whatever the reason is, right? With their exclusives model, they're finding ways to convert those latent sellers into actual sellers. And I think it's an interesting commentary on a product that is desired right now, probably more than most other cycles because inventory so scarce and so locked up. And so if you can get these people off the sidelines because you've made it so easy for them to sell their home and they can accumulate offers and people find a value on that, then it's potentially a way that you can break some of that standstill or housing ice age in these local markets.
我认为，他们提到的战略上最有趣的部分之一是，你刚才说没有卖家，对吗？库存被锁定。他们在电话中谈论了这种能够确定潜在卖家或计划在某个时候卖房的卖家的机会。但他们没有选择时机或没有精力，或者他们担心房价等等原因。通过他们的独家模式，他们正在寻找方法将这些潜在卖家转变为实际卖家。我认为这是对当前最受欢迎的产品的有趣评论，可能比其他周期更受欢迎，因为库存如此稀缺，如此被锁定。因此，如果你可以让这些人走出困境，因为你让他们卖房变得如此容易，并且他们可以积累报价，人们会发现价值，那么这可能是打破这些当地市场停滞或房屋冰河时代的一种方式。
Yeah, that's a great transition. Let's talk about a few things that we learned about some Nicole. First, they revealed that they're currently focusing their efforts of the third party exclusives on Plano and Texas, which we kind of put together with Dallas because that's how it's listed on the website. So we've seen most of the third party activity while they had some initial third party listings in Austin and Houston as well. It's basically just Dallas right now, which now they really does basically in Plano.
是的，这是一个很棒的过渡。让我们来谈谈我们了解到的一些关于尼克尔的情况。首先，他们透露目前正在专注于在德克萨斯州的普兰诺进行第三方独占策略，我们可以根据网站上的列表将其与达拉斯联系在一起。所以我们已经看到了他们在达拉斯进行了大部分的第三方活动，虽然一开始他们也在奥斯汀和休斯顿有一些第三方列表。但现在基本上只有达拉斯，而且现在他们将其归类为普兰诺。
So that's where they're experimenting with all this third party stuff. And they've revealed that almost 60% of sellers they pitched in Q1 on the third party exclusives, 60% of those sellers agreed to enroll into the program, which seems really high, 60%. Within the quarter, they drove to about 3% of listing share in Plano. I'm not sure how big the market is in Plano. I don't know if it's thousands of homes or it's a relatively small market. I mean, it's not in Houston or Dallas. But yeah, 3% is still a good number that they did in three months.
这就是他们正在进行所有这些第三方内容实验的地方。他们已透露，在第一季度中向几乎60％的销售商推销第三方独家产品，而其中60％的销售商同意加入该计划，这似乎非常高，有60％。在这个季度内，他们在普兰诺的上市份额增长了约3％。我不确定普兰诺市场有多大。我不知道它是数千个房屋，还是相对较小的市场。 我的意思是，它不在休斯顿或达拉斯。但是，3％仍然是他们在三个月内做得很好的数字。
And basically they're focusing right now on making sure they're perfecting their customer experience. And to do that, like you said, they need sellers. And right now it's not a great time to get regular sellers. So they really focused in on those latent sellers that really don't know if they actually want to sell and try to convince them to list their exclusives. My questions there are like how big is that market really?
基本上他们现在的重点是确保完善他们的客户体验。为此，正如你所说，他们需要卖家。但是现在，获得定期卖家并不是一个很好的时机。因此他们真的专注于那些潜在的卖家，这些卖家并不确定他们是否真的想要出售，并试图说服他们列出他们的专属商品。我的问题是，这个市场到底有多大？
Like imagine they really doubled down on latent sellers and roll out nationwide. Is that, I mean, it's a net add to home inventory. They're unlocking a new market. But what do you think how big that market could be? That's a good question. So you were just real quick, you were talking about the size of Plano. Zillow currently has 220 homes in Plano for sale for whatever that's worth. So not huge, but not tiny either.
就好比想象一下，他们真的在潜在卖家身上投入更多资源，并在全国范围内推广。这意味着什么？这将向房源中添加净值。他们正在开拓一个新市场。但你认为这个市场有多大？这是个好问题。所以你刚才说得很快，你在谈论Plano的规模。Zillow目前在Plano有220所房屋出售，无论价值如何都不算很大，但也不算太少。
I think I've always felt like this sort of third party aggregate offers for your home. Sort of the dream way to at least start your home selling process, right? The activation energy is almost nothing. You get to accumulate all these offers. You get to be in the driver's seat. I mean, you automatically have a way out or a way to get cashing your pocket no matter what. And so I think in that regard, in all of those different facets, it's a potential improvement over the traditional experience. But that being said, I don't think it's meant to replace the traditional experience. So many of these different products are ways that OpenDoors trying to improve the transaction.
我认为我一直都觉得这种第三方聚合房屋销售的方式，是至少在开始你的房屋销售过程中的梦想方式，对吧？激活能量几乎为零，你可以积累所有这些报价，你可以坐在驾驶座上。我的意思是，无论如何，你都自动拥有了一种出路或一种获得现金的方式。因此，在所有这些不同的方面，它都是相对传统体验的潜在改进。但是话说回来，我不认为它意味着要取代传统的销售方式。这些不同的产品是OpenDoors试图改进交易的方式。
Is it different steps along that transaction process? So it's the same as list with OpenDoor, right? Like, if you're a homeowner and you go through the exclusive program, you don't find an offer that makes sense. You just don't think that there's a good value there. You can then move down the funnel into list your home with OpenDoor, right?
这个交易过程有不同的步骤吗？所以和OpenDoor的列表一样，是吗？比方说，如果你是房主，通过专属计划后你没有找到一个合理的报价，你认为那里没有好的价值。你可以通过OpenDoor的列表把房子推下市场，是吗？
And maybe you convert a home buyer through that, maybe you don't. But then, if that doesn't work out, you can just take a cash offer from OpenDoor, right? Like, there's so many different ways that they're coming at this. And none of them, none of their different products are replacing the entire traditional real estate transaction. It's just adding a few more frictionless offerings that you can use to bypass the traditional real estate experience if the traditional real estate experience is not working for you.
也许你能通过这种方式转化成一个购房者，也许不能。但是如果这不起作用，你就可以接受OpenDoor的现金报价，对吧？他们用很多不同的方式来推销这个产品。而且，他们的不同产品都没有取代整个传统房地产交易。只是添加了一些更加“无摩擦”的服务，如果传统的房地产交易对你来说不起作用，你就可以使用这些服务来绕过传统的房地产经验。
And even still, OpenDoors iterating with traditional real estate experience as well, which they talked about in the call with all their partnerships with agents. It seems like they're really doubling down on that, which I think is good. And something that we have to continue to monitor, it's probably pretty good unit economics as well, relative to first party.
即便如此，OpenDoors仍在继续与传统的房地产经验进行迭代，并通过与所有合作的代理商进行通话来谈论这一点。看起来他们确实在加倍努力，我认为这是好的。这是我们需要继续关注的事情，与第一方相比，它的经济单位可能相当不错。
But I think it's an interesting one. Let's talk about partnership. But last thing they mentioned on Exclusive is the time when we should expect. They re-emphasize that they're right now in building, though, they're nowhere close to scaling. So they're going to continue to ramp up into 2024, we should probably see at least that's what they mentioned last or next call a few new market launches, but the end of 2023. And they're targeting a more material volume potentially in 2025.
不过，我认为这是一个有趣的话题——合作伙伴关系。但是，在《独家报道》中，他们最后提到的是我们可以期待的时间。他们再次强调，他们现在正在建设阶段，虽然他们离扩张还差得远。因此，他们将会一直向2024年加速发展，我们可能会在最后一次或者下一次的通话中看到几个新的市场推出，但要等到2023年底。他们的目标是在2025年实现更大规模的成交量。
So all of this is really small scale. What I'm interested, I follow up question would be, if I would be an analyst, is like, if they have exclusives rolled out in multiple markets, they obviously go now also, first party exclusives, which they don't count into their progress of the third party marketplace or the exclusive marketplace. And that will drive down costs as well. They're still selling a lot of homes for exclusives where they don't pay a seller commission.
所有这些都是非常小规模的。我的问题是：如果我是一名分析师，我会想知道，如果他们在多个市场推出独占产品，显然也包括第一方独占产品，而这些产品并不计入他们的第三方市场或独占市场的进展，那么这将进一步降低成本。他们仍在出售很多独占房屋，而这些房屋不需要支付卖方佣金。
So that will probably somehow show up in 2024 as well, which they probably don't put into this material volume here. But yeah, let's talk about partnerships. There was a little bit of news on the partnership side and how they are really doubling down on those low cost acquisition, some of those. One reason probably is being that their conversion rates with those high spreads are really low.
这可能在2024年以某种方式出现，但他们可能没有将其放入此材料量中。但是，让我们谈谈合作伙伴关系。在合作伙伴关系方面有一些新闻，他们正在加倍努力那些低成本的收购。一个原因可能是，他们的高利差的转化率确实很低。
They were at 10% last quarter, now in this quarter in Q1, they were, I think, close up to 15% because they, the spreads came down a little bit. But that means you can't really spend a lot of marketing if that doesn't end up in somebody selling in only 10 to 50% of the time. So, they are doubling down on the partnerships. One being Zillow. Zillow went live in the five largest markets in Q1.
上个季度他们完成了10%的业绩，现在Q1季度，我认为他们的业绩接近15%，因为点差有所下降。但这意味着如果销售只占10%至50%，就不能投入太多的市场营销费用。因此，他们正在加倍依赖合作伙伴，其中一个是Zillow。 Zillow 在 Q1 季度在五个最大的市场推广。
They also said that they're redfin and realtor.com partnerships that basically look the same as the Zill partnership are rolling out now nationwide. And they mentioned on the agent side that 50% of their agent referrals are now coming from agents that did business with OpenW4. That means they have a substantial amount of agents that just regularly refer customers to them, which was quite interesting.
他们还说，他们与Redfin和realtor.com的合作伙伴关系现在已经在全国范围内推出，其基本上与Zill的合作伙伴关系相同。而且他们还提到，他们的代理人转介绍的50%现在来自曾经与OpenW4做过生意的代理人。这意味着他们有相当数量的代理人定期向他们推荐客户，这非常有趣。
Yeah, I think that's a great summary of kind of what happened on the call at a high level. Unless there's any other topics that you have, it'd be great to take some questions, some boxes, and people. Yeah, please raise your hands. Let me check if we get any questions on the Discord.
是的，我认为这是对电话会议中发生的事情的一个很好的高层次总结。除非你有其他的话题需要讨论，现在可以提出一些问题、提供宝贵的建议和意见。请抬起你的手，我来检查一下我们在Discord上是否有任何问题。
I mean, we have a question here from in the Discord, from the corridor. He says, I know that now is slow slash risk off, but when will things roughly be back to normal next year, if the target is only 20% of what it was, I'm not sure what he means by the question, but I guess you could summarize it. Like when are we going to be back on track on that $50 billion run rate revenue they targeted in their investor slides like a year ago?
我是说，我们在Discord上收到了一位叫做From the Corridor的问题。他说，我知道现在是缓慢/风险较低的时期，但是如果目标只是过去的20％，明年什么时候情况会大致恢复正常呢？我不确定他的问题意思是什么，但我猜你可以概括一下。就像我们什么时候才能回到他们一年前在投资者幻灯片中设定的500亿美元的年收入目标上呢？
Yeah, I think he's touching on probably one of the most important questions about Open Door at this point, because Open Door has moved from this ubiquitous, we'll offer on any home in their buy box, relatively close to the home's value, and then resell and try to make all the margin and the transaction fee to double digit spreads, very conservative, low conversion rates, much smaller market.
是的，我认为他谈到了Open Door现在最重要的问题之一，因为Open Door不再是无处不在的，只需要在他们的“购买框”中为任何房屋提供价值相对接近的报价，然后再重新销售并尝试获得所有的利润和交易费用，而是变成了双位数价差、非常保守、转换率较低、市场规模较小的模式。
And so I think the question that most of us should be thinking about is, is the model still interesting, is the model as investible in that situation because it's not Amazon in that situation, right? It's more of a boutique offering. And I guess I don't mean it as, is it still an interesting model? I mean it as does the company believe that they can get back to that situation where they could offer on most homes and the tam was enormous because it was most homes in the United States.
因此，我认为我们大多数人应该思考的问题是，这个模型仍然有趣吗？在这种情况下，这个模型在投资上是否有价值，因为它不是亚马逊在这种情况下，它更像是一种精品服务。我的意思不是这个模型是否仍然有趣，而是公司是否相信他们可以回到那个能够为大多数房屋提供服务的状态，并且销售潜力是巨大的，因为这代表着美国大多数房屋。
If there is a path back to that and they can structurally reduce costs in a way that that's not just a pipe dream, it's something that actually could be done or at least close to what that vision was. And I think it's still a very interesting model in worth staying in and paying attention to. But that's probably what I was trying to get at is, you know, for the rest of the year we're going to be at this very sub-scale level through 2024. Our run rate's only going to be $10 billion. That's, you know, we've been there done that for open door, right?
如果有一条回到那里的路径，他们可以以一种结构性地降低成本的方式来实现这一目标，这不仅是一个空想，而且实际上可以实现或至少接近那个愿景。我认为这仍然是一个非常有趣的模式，值得关注和留意。但这可能是我试图表达的，你知道，在接下来的一年里，我们的水平将非常不足，直到2024年。我们的运行速率只会达到100亿美元。对于Open Door来说，我们已经经历过这样的事情了，对吧？
But is there a long-term aspiration still to be a much, much, much larger player than the current iteration? It's a good question. I assume the answer would be yes, but to reiterate what we saw in the slides from last year and I hope we will see a new investor next year that is closer to where they are right now or on the way to where they're going at that point. They had that path to $50 billion run rate mapped out with 100 markets and 4% market share. Still seems intainable, but it got pushed back by at least two years, I guess, from the initial timeline.
但是，是否仍有一个长期的追求，要比现在的状态大得多、多得多呢？ 这是一个很好的问题。我认为答案应该是肯定的，但要重申去年幻灯片中所看到的，并希望我们明年能看到一个新的投资者，他们更接近现在的状态或在那个时候走到了哪里。他们有一条通往500亿美元的运营规模的路径，覆盖100个市场并拥有4%的市场份额。这仍然似乎是不可达到的，但是从最初的时间表推迟了至少两年，我猜想。
Yeah, agreed. It's an interesting, interesting question. I think her all wanted to ask a question. I think that the mic is muted.
没问题，同意。这是一个非常有趣的问题。我认为她想问一个问题。我觉得麦克风被关闭了。
意思是：是的，同意。这是个有趣的问题。我认为她想要提问，但我觉得麦克风被关闭了。
Oh, okay, sorry. One thing I find it interesting is that once these properties are purchased, why there is not a talk from them about until those properties are sold, can they not rent it and generate a stream of revenue? It just seems odd to me that, okay, this is what we are going to purchase and this is what we are planning to sell.
噢，好的，抱歉。我觉得有趣的一件事是，一旦购买了这些物业，他们为什么不在出售之前谈论一下，他们难道不能把它租出去并产生收入流吗？对我来说这似乎有些奇怪，就像，“好的，这是我们要购买的，这是我们计划要出售的。”
And everything is dependent on the interest rate and a lot of external factors, but there are a lot of other creative ways they can utilize those assets, which I don't hear as much about unless I'm missing something. That's a great point.
所有事情都取决于利率和很多外部因素，但是还有很多其他创造性的方式可以利用这些资产，除非我漏掉了什么，否则我没有听到太多关于这些的讨论。这是一个很好的观点。
So just so you know, in early 2022, like January 2022, I met with Daniel Morello at Open Door for the first time through investor relations. And I pitched him a version of that exact product. So we were tracking Open Door's performance at the time and they had all of these homes that were held for a very long period of time.
为了让你了解，早在2022年1月，我首次通过投资者关系见到了Open Door的Daniel Morello。我向他推销了一个跟那个产品很类似的版本。当时我们一直在关注Open Door的表现，他们有许多房产超长期持有。
And I questioned whether or not it would make sense to funnel some of those homes. If those homes were not getting a certain number of visits or attention or offers, they sort of move into this long-term funnel where they're not only listed for sale, but also listed for rent. And then those homes are rented.
我曾经考虑过把一些房屋进行筛选。如果这些房屋没有得到足够的访问量、关注或报价，它们就会进入一个长期的筛选过程，在这个过程中它们不仅会被列出待售，也会被列出待租。然后这些房屋就会被出租。
You earn some income on them and wait for them to appreciate to where you bought them and then sell them. And Daniel did not love that idea. And he kind of mentioned that, which was very instructional, that the debt that Open Door has is meant to be short duration debt.
您会从这些投资中赚取一些收入，并等待它们升值到您购买它们的价格，然后再卖出。但丹尼尔对这个想法并不赞成。他提到，Open Door的债务应该是短期债务，这是非常有教育意义的。
And so if you're using that debt to finance homes that you're then renting to people, it's sort of against the covenants that they set out when they secured that financing. And so that's part of the issue, not to mention the operational difficulty of alternating between trying to be this asset-like technology player and the landlord at the same time. It's quite expensive.
因此，如果你使用那种债务来资助房屋，然后将其出租给他人，那么这与他们在获得这种融资时设定的契约相违背。这就是问题的一部分，更不用提同时努力成为资产化科技企业和房东的运营困难了。这也非常昂贵。
And I think it's easier said than done, but I agree. It would be nice to have some sort of solution for these longer held homes so that they can make money on them while they're waiting to sell. Right. Thank you.
我认为这件事说起来容易做起来难，但我同意。为了那些长时间拥有的房屋能够在等待售出期间赚钱，有一些解决方案会很不错。是的，谢谢。
All right, we have another question here. One from Corridor. He's asking, what's going on with all those high margin services? It's never us about it, never mentioned. It was only a year ago. It was the key part of the story contributing to up to 22k per home.
好的，我们这里有另一个问题。来自Corridor的问题，他问，所有那些高利润的服务怎么了？从来没有跟我们谈过，从来没有提到过。只有一年前，它是故事的关键部分，每个房屋的贡献高达22k。
Any sort of a tetrate progress, it's still part of the thesis. And he's sharing here the slide from, again, the investor dot deck where we see Padle and S grow being $2,500 of target contribution margin per home. Then we had home loans, which obviously got discontinued, which were supposed to be $5,000 of target contribution margin per home. If by with open door and in the future, maybe home burn key, upgrade and remodel, home insurance, moving services. I think those features are a ways off.
任何形式的四次方进展，都是这个论文的一部分。他在这里分享了一张来自投资者演示文稿的幻灯片，上面显示了 Padle 和 S grow 的目标贡献利润为每套房屋 2,500 美元。然后我们有了房屋贷款，显然已经停止，本来应该为每套房屋带来 5,000 美元的目标贡献利润。通过与 Open Door 和未来可能的 Home Burn Key、升级和改造、房屋保险、搬家服务等合作，我认为这些功能还有很长的路要走。
Title and S grow is the best of all of them. They've recently made some moves with Title and S grow to double down on that, but their high margin, T&E revenue is down over the past few quarters because they're not acquiring as many homes. So they're not able to realize that margin, that profitability because they're not acquiring those homes. As they begin to ramp up again, I think it'll be a more material piece of their earnings and revenue. So that's something to watch.
《Title and S grow》是它们中最好的业务。最近，他们采取了措施加倍投资于《Title and S grow》，但是由于他们没有收购更多的房屋，他们的高利润T&E收入在过去几个季度中有所下降。因此，他们无法实现这种利润率和盈利能力，因为他们没有收购那些房屋。随着他们再次加速增长，我认为这将成为他们收益和收入的更重要的组成部分。因此，这是需要关注的。
Obviously mortgage isn't happening. I don't see anything with insurance or warranty right now. I was impressed to see that they renovated 2,500 homes from the Q2 offer cohort starting in Q4. I mean, operationally, that's very complex. I think it speaks to the fact that they actually have invested and continued to invest in the operations team that can renovate and repair homes. So that might be something that comes sooner rather than later.
显然，按揭贷款不太可能发生。目前我看不到任何有关保险或保证的内容。但我惊异地发现，自第二季开始，在第四季开始的时候已经翻新了2,500个房屋。从操作上来讲，这是非常复杂的。我认为这说明他们实际上已经投资并继续投资于能够翻新和修理房屋的操作团队。所以这可能是早日实现的事情。
But in the meantime, it seems like carry's number one priority is to get first party right. And home loans or mortgages, they still have the partnership with law of the company. So they offer mortgages to like this part of buy with open door, but I'm sure they also offering to movers that are selling to open door. So they probably get a decent revenue cut there. It's probably about $5,000, maybe more like 2,500. But it's basically no cost on their end to just push them out a different funnel. And it probably like improved the experience because they have a tight integration there.
但同时，现在似乎Carry的头等大事是获取第一方权利。至于房屋贷款或抵押贷款，他们仍与该公司的法律合作伙伴保持合作关系。因此，他们向像Open Door这样的购买方提供贷款，但我相信他们也向出售给Open Door的搬家者提供贷款。所以他们可能在那里得到不错的收入分成。这可能约为5,000美元，甚至可能超过2,500美元。但这基本上对他们来说没有成本，只需要将它们推到不同的漏斗上即可，这可能会改善用户体验，因为他们在那里有紧密的整合。
Buy with open door is still going on, they did a lot of changes to that program. They also have quite a big team investing into the infrastructure of building an e-commerce checkout for real estate, which would mean buy with open door, but also the future of open exclusives. And I assume a lot of that renovation and upgrade and remodel infrastructure that they're building and maybe the muscle that they flexed here with renovating 2,500 homes will be part of that e-commerce experience. Like imagine you could just customize the home you're buying with buy with open door or on exclusives while you're checking out. They would be. That is something they have talked about in the past that might be a bit on the backburner right now. And we'll probably get there. And yeah, home insurance is something they experimented with before or weren't here as well. Maybe they're also offering some of that through like some referral program, but none of them are done in house right now.
购买开放门还在继续进行，他们对这个项目进行了许多改变。他们还有一个相当大的团队投资于建立房地产电子商务结算基础设施，这意味着购买开放大门，但也是开放排他性的未来。我认为，他们正在建造的大部分翻新、升级和改造基础设施，以及在翻新2500栋房屋时展示出的实力，都将成为电子商务体验的一部分。就像你可以在购买开放门或排他性房源时自定义房屋一样，这将是非常有用的。这是他们曾经谈论过的，但现在可能被搁置了一段时间，但我们可能会到达那里。家庭保险是他们之前尝试过的事情，在这里也没有完成。也许他们也通过一些引荐计划提供其中一些服务，但现在没有一家公司在此领域。
Um, we have a question here from Stephen on this court as well. He's asking, can you please talk a bit about your graphic diversity in them in the most recent purchases? It seems that they should be in a better position to ramp up purchases sales back up if they have a stronger food hold in more than just a handful of markets. Maybe put another way. How many of their 52 markets? 53. Our markets are fully rent. Tyler, do you have data to open right now and can give a bit of clarity here? I am opening it up right now. Let me tell you. As we can look at Q one data in particular. I don't know.
嗯，这里还有来自斯蒂芬的问题。他问道，您能否谈一谈最近购买的产品的图形多样性？如果他们在不止少数市场中占据更强的食品地位，那么他们应该能够更好地提高销售。或者说，他们的52个市场中有多少是完全租用的？53个。泰勒，您现在能够打开数据并提供一些清晰的信息吗？我现在正在打开数据。让我告诉你。尤其是我们可以查看Q1的数据。我不知道。
I mean, it still seems like there are few places that they're buying quite a few homes, but most of them are very few. Yeah, so I haven't seen too much change in the strategy there. I mean, Atlanta is the most and then other than that, only Phoenix Charlotte, Houston, Tampa and Dallas had 100 or closer 100. And then, you know, it really drops off after that. So I'd say probably of the 1700 homes purchased in Q one, maybe 70% of it. We're in the top 15 markets.
我的意思是，他们買了很多房子的地方还是很少，大部分地方房子数量很少。是的，所以我并没有看到这里的策略有太多变化。我意思是，亚特兰大是最多的，其他的话，除了菲尼克斯、夏洛特、休斯顿、坦帕和达拉斯还有大约100个房子或更少。然后，你知道的，之后房子的数量确实就大幅度下降了。所以我想说，Q1购买了1700套房子中，也许70%左右是在前15个市场中购买的。
Yeah. We shared a charred on sales on Twitter before for Q one says, probably should share charred on purchase as well. It looks a little bit different. Like you said, Atlanta took over Phoenix. We also saw Texas. The Texas go get a bit weaker. But Dallas was an Austin with quite strong markets in the past. I assume they're a little bit riskier recently. That's why they're not purchasing as much there. And I don't know if you saw Tyler Ed at the year, the markets have been launched today to do as well, which is quite useful. And I had no idea what that was. I was like, what? What is this mean? It's the year that the market launched. So yeah, cool.
是的。我们之前在 Twitter 上分享了 Q1 销售走势，也许应该分享一下采购方面的走势。看起来有点不同。就像你说的，亚特兰大取代了凤凰城。我们也看到了德克萨斯州。德克萨斯州变得稍微弱了一些。但达拉斯一直是过去市场相当强劲的奥斯汀。我想最近他们有点冒险。这就是为什么他们在那里的采购量不是那么多。我不知道你有没有看到 Tyler Ed 今年，他们今天发布了市场运营的情况，这非常有用。我原本没有任何想法，我一直在想，这是什么意思？指的是市场的启动年份。所以，不错。
The earliest markets. Let's maybe take a look at 2021 markets, which should be kind of subscale at this point. Greensboro is doing probably really well for 2021 market. Like it's overtaking markets did they launched in 2018. Some of the new markets from 2022 are just really small right now. Like New York, San Francisco, Albuquerque. They're hiring in those markets. I saw a job listed for Albuquerque, New Mexico. So they probably are planning to invest more there.
最早的市场。或者让我们看看2021年市场，这个时候应该是有些次要的。格林斯伯勒在2021年市场上可能表现得非常好。它正在超越他们在2018年推出的市场。2022年的一些新市场现在非常小，比如纽约，旧金山，阿尔布开克。他们正在这些市场招聘。我看到过阿尔布开克，新墨西哥州的一则招聘信息。因此，他们可能计划在那里投资更多。
But yeah, I think being set up in 50 free markets and probably underutilized and many of them will give them a good platform to scale back up. Yeah, it's just interesting because even at OpenDorse Apex, like when they were just buying homes left and right, it was still pretty concentrated amongst a few key markets. And I think in markets like Atlanta and Phoenix and Dallas and Orlando and Tampa, Houston, I think in those markets, they've really aggregated these cost efficiencies and really had a deep understanding of those markets. That's probably why they leaned into them so significantly rather than aggressively growing other ones. But since OpenDorse has gone public, I don't know if we've seen a new market become a prime market for them or become a material portion of the revenue.
是的，我认为在50个自由市场中建立业务，许多市场可能并没有充分利用，并给他们提供了一个良好的平台，以便再次扩大规模。这很有趣，因为即使在OpenDorse Apex时期，他们左右购买房屋，市场仍然集中在一些关键市场。我认为在亚特兰大、菲尼克斯、达拉斯、奥兰多、坦帕、休斯顿等市场，他们真正聚集了这些成本效益，并深刻了解这些市场。这可能是为什么他们倾向于这些市场而不是积极发展其他市场的原因。但自OpenDorse上市以来，我不知道是否看到了新的市场成为他们的主要市场或成为收入的重要组成部分。
All right. Maybe we have any other questions? One must think, oh, we have a question here, great. Hey Aaron, do you have a question for us? Yeah, how are we going, everyone? Can he meet me or us? Yes, we're doing great. Nice. Yeah, I guess my thoughts, nothing's too new what was reported today in terms of especially the last earnings release. There's been a reset, a bit knowledge, a lower run rate, they've been conservative, high spreads, low-perch, seeing volume. A lot of that was discussed last quarter, including shaving off 100 basis points in additional cost, etc.
好的，也许我们还有其他问题吗？人们会想，哦，我们这里有个问题，很好。嘿，亚伦，你有什么问题要问我们吗？是的，大家好吗？他能见我或我们吗？是的，我们很好。不错。是的，我想我的想法，今天报道的内容并没有太多新东西，特别是最近的收益发布。已经进行了重置，有点知识，降低了运行速率，他们保守，高溢价，低利率，看到交易量。 上季度就已经讨论了很多这方面的内容，包括进一步削减100个基点的成本等。
My thoughts, what's needed now to increase conviction in the business over the next few periods? It's simple saying if they can hit adjusted net profit on a $15 billion run rate, that's all that's needed. Before the business or the stock can actually take a much higher leg upwards, because it could really just trade relatively flat for the next year if you are having to wait till mid 2024. So yeah, it's more just where my head's at in terms of thinking versus a question, but what do we need to see over the next two, three or four quarters? And when do people start getting a lot more bullish on the business?
我认为，现在需要做的是如何在未来几个季度内增强对业务的信心。简单来说，如果他们能够在150亿美元的年收益率下达到调整后的净利润，那就是所需的全部。在业务或股票真正可以大幅上涨之前，这是必须的，因为如果你必须等到2024年中期，那么它实际上可能只会相对平稳地交易。因此，我的想法更多是关于思考的，而不是一个问题，但在接下来的两三或四个季度内我们需要看到什么？什么时候人们开始对业务非常乐观？
I'm personally impressed with after the big stuff up where it's gone and they are executing as they say, but it still doesn't feel like it's enough for people to have conviction on this business. So just came to get your guys thoughts.
个人印象是，经过之前的大失误后，他们正在按照所说的执行，但仍然感觉这还不足以让人们对这个业务产生信心。因此，我想听听你们的想法。
It's a great and tough question, because I think I think a lot of people who were bearish on open door from the start feel probably appropriately indicated for that. And I think a lot of the people that were very bullish on open door have since retreated because of what happened this past year. There's a lot of boxes that need to be checked on the way back. And I think we touched on a few of them, which is really just that the first party business is not just the money losing business, that it actually can be valued as something. And that takes a certain amount of scale and a ton of discipline and much more cost-cutting, I think, for it to be a stable business.
这是一个很好而且非常困难的问题，因为我认为起初对开放门户持悲观态度的许多人可能觉得他们这样做是合适的，而那些一开始非常看好开放门户的人，已经因为去年发生的事情而逐渐撤退了。在回到正轨之前，有很多方面需要解决。我们提到了其中一些，就是第一方业务并不仅仅是亏损的业务，它实际上也可以被看作是一个有价值的部分。这需要一定规模和很多纪律性，以及更多的成本削减，我认为这样才能让它成为一个稳定的业务。
But then you start to get into one of the things that could really excite people on the sidelines. And I think that's the third party marketplace, number one, because that is ubiquitous capital and asset light model that could scale very well, especially with these partnerships. And then you also start talking about their open doors product for landlords. So they're them being the infrastructure layer for landlords, for REITs, for all these institutional players that they work with. And truthfully, those relationships and that product feeds third party marketplace as well. So they all work better together.
但是，当你开始涉足可能真正激发旁观者热情的事情时，你会发现第三方市场是其中一个。首先它是一个无处不在的资本和资产轻模式，可以通过这些合作伙伴扩展得很好。然后，你也可以开始谈论他们为房东开设的开门产品。因此，他们成为房东、房地产投资信托基金和所有这些机构投资者的基础层。事实上，这些关系和产品也会影响到第三方市场，并使它更好地运作。所有这些要素共同作用，效果更佳。
But if that can scale and if the third party marketplace can scale, the first party marketplace is much better insulated. And I think the business is viewed as more investible. But again, to your point, those are down the road items. Those are not really 20, 23 milestones. But I do think that longer term, if they continue to make progress, those would be drivers of the thesis.
但如果这种扩展能够扩大规模，如果第三方市场也能扩大规模，那么第一方市场就会更好地受到保护。我认为这种商业模式被认为更有投资价值。但是，再次强调，那些都是长远的事情，不是20年或23年的重要里程碑。但是我认为，从长期来看，如果他们继续取得进展，这些将成为主张的驱动因素。
Yeah, yeah, no, I think, you know, we're on a similar page in terms of what's needed to drive it forward. What I'd find interesting is what are they coming to the next earnings release with? That's not similar to this or the last one. You know, so in terms of their commentary around performance of third party players say, Zelo, you know, nothing changed there. And then in terms of say 3P, not a lot has changed there.
嗯，我认为我们在推动这件事前进所需的方面上，我们的想法很相似。我觉得有意思的事情是，他们下一次收益公告会带来什么？这不同于这次或上次。就他们对第三方玩家Zelo的表现评论而言，似乎什么也没有改变。至于第三方的表现，也没有什么改变。
So this is what's interesting for me is, you know, what can they bring? And so part of it is, you know, I'd still love to see them getting in front of the camera a lot more whether it's podcasts or similar. Because if you only hear from them once a quarter and you turn up and they haven't actually improved Zelo integration or increased purchasing, etc. Then I think that can leave people, you know, especially analysts leaving, not thinking a lot is happening. And yeah, I'd just like to see still a lot more hands-on stuff happening from the business. I guess we'll towel over the next few quarters.
对我来说最有意思的是，他们能带来什么？因此，我希望他们能更多地站在摄像机前，无论是播客还是类似节目。因为如果你只看见他们每个季度一次，而他们实际上并没有改善Zelo集成或增加购买等，我认为这会让人们，特别是分析师们，离开时认为没有太多事情发生。而且，我希望从业务方面看到更多的实际行动。我想我们会在未来几个季度看到这一点。
But overall, I think, you know, they've done exactly what they said they would so you can't hold that against them. I mean, we're not great at doing that. The business was going well, right? We didn't hear much from them. There was not much media appearances other than like maybe at CNBC interview with Kerry at the time when she was CFO.
总体而言，我认为他们做到了他们所说的话，所以你不能责怪他们。我的意思是，我们在这方面做得不太好。这个公司一直很顺利，对吧？我们没有听到他们的太多消息。除了凯丽担任财务总监时，可能会在CNBC采访中出现，媒体上也没有太多曝光。
Yeah, I agree. I hope we will hear more from them. I assume it's not going to be the case until they're back on their feet and back growing. It just probably doesn't make much sense for them to talk right now.
是的，我同意。我希望我们能听到更多关于他们的消息。我认为在他们恢复元气并重新开始成长之前，这种情况可能不会发生。现在他们发表讲话可能没有太多意义。
One thing to mention because I guess we're talking about devaluation, they're stock price. And we usually don't really comment on that because it's just impossible to predict where it's going. One thing I guess I can say is like they're valued still for a basic bankruptcy. So like maybe it's enough for them to just show that they can make this for the stock price to significantly go up from here. I mean, we were scratching on the we were about $2 scratching on the $3 a few months ago. I mean, I don't think it takes much to get back there. Maybe macro improves a little bit and like they'm showing that they can make this. And I think they did a good job with that on this quarter. We will see in the next week how the stock price will move from that. Tyler any other comments on that?
有一件事要提到，因为我猜我们正在谈论的是货币贬值，它们的股价。我们通常不会真正评论它，因为它完全无法预测它会走向何方。我猜我可以说的是，它们目前的价值仅仅还够应对基本破产的风险。所以，或许只要他们能够证明他们能够走出困境，股价就有可能从这里显著提升。我是说，几个月前，我们还在2美元到3美元之间波动。我认为，只要宏观经济略有好转，他们证明自己能够应对风险，那么他们肯定会重返高峰。我认为，他们在本季度做得非常出色，接下来的一个星期内，我们就能看出他们的股价如何变动。Tyler对此有其他评论吗？
Thanks, guys. No, I mean, I agree with all that. I think you both made some good points about some of the challenges of investing in open door and then also what can be baffling about devaluation and yet also fitting. But I think it's still a show me story for a lot of people. I think open door still feels internally like they have a lot to prove and a lot to accomplish before the end. I do think that this quarter was improvement but as we kind of talked about, it's also what was expected. And I think there's few more quarters of this where it's like not their best work but clearly we're moving in the right direction with Q4 being probably a pretty banner, gross margin result as we head into 2024.
谢谢你们。不，我的意思是，我同意你们说的所有内容。我认为你们两个针对投资“开门”面临的一些挑战以及贬值令人困惑但仍然适用的一些观点都很有道理。但我认为对于很多人来说，这仍然是一个“让我看看”的故事。我认为“开门”内部仍然感觉自己有很多事情要证明和完成。我确实认为这个季度有所改善，但正如我们之前谈到的，这也是预期的结果。我认为还有几个季度这样，这不是他们最好的表现，但显然我们正在朝着正确的方向前进，到2024年第四季度可能会是一个非常出色的毛利率结算期。
Yeah. And I guess on the topic of media attention, we saw Keith going on various podcasts talking about open door going on CNBC. It probably didn't really help the stock. So I'm not sure if this really moved in either. If we saw like a record or carry going on on media tours. To be clear, we've tried to interview people from open door for a podcast, for a video to try to tell the story a little bit better and they've always said no.
是的。关于媒体关注的话题，我们看到Keith在各种播客上谈论Open Door，还登上了CNBC的节目。可能这并没有真正帮助股票。所以我不确定这个事件是否产生了影响。如果我们看到像Record或Carry这样的人走上媒体巡回演出，或许会有所不同。明确一下，我们曾经尝试采访Open Door的人，想制作一部视频，更好地讲述这个故事，但他们总是拒绝了。
I mean, we're with you. We'd like it to but it's always been now. All right. Maybe to close this off, one thing that they mentioned and we knew about this for a while and Tyler tweeted about it as well. They now officially saw that of 92% of the homes they made an offer on between March and June. And that's a hat of their schedule where their pre-expectations were 85%.
我的意思是，我们支持你。我们希望能够，但它一直是现在的情况。好的，也许为了结束这个话题，他们提到了一件我们早就知道的事情，Tyler也在推特上提到过。他们现在正式宣布，在三月至六月份提出报价的92%房屋中，他们成功了，这超出了他们预期的85%。
Which is really great news. That means we're only getting closer to not have to talk about this key to offer cord ever again. Anything to add to your title?
这真是个好消息。这意味着我们离不再需要讨论这个提供线的钥匙越来越近了。你还有什么要补充的标题吗？
92 of a cohort. Sorry you caught me while I was taking a bite of dinner. No, I mean, I think I think they're getting close. There has been a little bit of a disseleration and the speed with which they're selling off this Q2 offer cohort, but they're still making progress. I think it's going to be a material part of their Q2 sales and then 25% or less of Q3.
我们的销售队伍已经卖出了92个销售组合。对不起，你打扰到我在吃晚餐。我的意思是，我认为他们正在接近成功。尽管销售第二季度优惠组合的速度有所放缓，但他们仍在取得进展。我认为这将成为他们第二季度销售的重要组成部分，而在第三季度则占销售的25％或更少。
Yeah, so we are seeing the end of the tunnel here. All right. Thank you everyone for joining in. You can listen to the whole, if you can listen to the whole thing and probably tomorrow on our YouTube channel. We also uploaded the earnings call and have a transcript of it on the website as well.
是的，我们现在已经看到了隧道的尽头。好的，谢谢大家的参与。如果你能听整个过程，那么你可以在我们的YouTube频道上收听。我们还在网站上上传了财报电话的记录及其翻译。
Thank you for joining us. And obviously subscribing to DataDore so we can continue doing this work and follow Open Door along as they get back to their prime.
感谢您的加入，同时订阅DataDore让我们能够继续从事这项工作，也让我们能够继续跟随Open Door，看他们重新崭露头角。
Thailand yet are closing thoughts. Yeah, thank you guys for always showing up. It's a little tougher to talk about Open Door these days and I think investing in general is maybe a little bit less fun than it was in the past. But I still think that this is a super interesting model. We're still trying to be as accurate and fair about the company as possible.
泰国，尚有未结束的想法。是的，谢谢你们总是参与讨论。现在谈论Open Door可能有些困难，而且我认为投资可能比以前少了一些乐趣。但我仍然认为这是一个非常有趣的模式。我们仍在努力尽可能准确和公正地评论这家公司。
We really like doing this, but we obviously can't do it without you. Thanks so much for the questions and the support. All right. See you soon.
我们非常喜欢这样做，但显然如果没有你的帮助，我们无法完成。非常感谢你的提问和支持。好的，很快再见。