Vehicle Shortages Explained, Car Price Predictions & That Time CDG Bought 50 Chevys | Jonathan Smoke
发布时间 2023-05-12 09:00:07 来源
摘要
In this episode, I'm speaking with Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive.
(00:00) Intro
(00:51) Our unique market environment
(04:12) Jonathan's background
(08:45) The Great Digitization
(11:46) That time CDG bought 50 Chevys at auction
(13:40) Are we in a K-shaped recovery?
(18:45) Domestic vs International supply constraints
(26:00) When do we get back to 2019 price levels?
(33:45) Forecasting new vs used car prices
(38:19) Advising a new car buyer
(41:42) Jonathan's take on EVs
(47:38) DJ Smoke's recommended listening
You can find Jonathan here:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/SmokeonCars
Smoke on Cars section of Cox's website: https://www.coxautoinc.com/economic_insights_category/smoke-on-cars/
Check out https://dealershipguy.com for more and follow me on Twitter @GuyDealership!
Interested in advertising with CarDealershipGuy? Join the sponsor waitlist here: https://cdgpartner.com
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
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I love you brought that up because I get that question on the time when are we going to get back to 2019 prices. Trump roll. The answer to that question is, what's up everyone this is car dealership guy. You're listening to the car dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Let's get into today's episode. Jonathan Smoke is the chief economist at Cox Automotive, a subsidiary of the $20 billion Cox enterprises. In this episode, we spoke about how the car business has transformed over the past five years, why we still have vehicle shortages, when prices will fall in by how much, when he predicts we'll get back to normal, and the time I bought 50 Chevy's in one day on a single auction. Here's my conversation with Jonathan Smoke. All views of car dealership guy and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
我很高兴你提到这个问题，因为我总是被问到：“我们什么时候能回到2019年的价格？”特朗普效应。这个问题的答案是：大家好，这里是车行人。您正在收听我的汽车行业播客，这是我为您提供最公正和透明的汽车市场洞见的努力。让我们进入今天的节目吧。Jonathan Smoke是Cox Automotive的首席经济学家，这是一家总资产价值200亿美元的Cox企业的子公司。在本期节目中，我们谈到了汽车业在过去五年里的转变，为什么我们仍然存在车辆短缺问题，价格何时会下降以及下降多少，他预测我们何时能回到正常状态，以及我曾在一次拍卖中一天内购买了50辆雪佛兰的故事。以下是我与Jonathan Smoke的对话。本播客中，车行人及其他嘉宾的观点仅代表他们的个人意见。这些观点不应作为金融建议。本播客仅供信息参考。
Alright, John Smoke on the pod. John. Did you ever imagine that car prices would be moving like a stock market? This is like the number one conversation I'm having with dealers nowadays. They're like, I'm looking at my inventory. It's like a meme stock going up and down every day. What is going on? Tell me how do you perceive this? Yeah, I definitely would never have projected all of the things that were necessary to give us the environment that produce the increase in car values that we saw mainly through the pandemic. Although coming into the auto industry, I did learn very quickly that car, it is natural for car prices to go up. There's a phenomenon every spring in tax revuncies and that wholesale use vehicle values always appreciate. It has happened every single year in the 27 years and I'm has been tracking it. So you know, it is always possible. But the unique conditions, the shutdown every factory in the world and simultaneously boost demand is really what gave us what we've experienced over the last couple of years. And you know, we're still slowly seeing some things return to normal and give us more of a track that we can follow and predict more accurately. But this is certainly uncharted territory for all of us.
约翰，你曾经想过汽车价格会像股票市场一样波动吗？这是我现在与经销商最常讨论的话题。他们说，我在看我的库存，感觉就像一只“典型股”每天上下波动，到底发生了什么？告诉我，你怎么看待这个问题？
是的，我肯定永远都想不到为了给我们创造生产汽车价值上升的环境，需要进行如此多的事情，这主要是通过大流行病实现的。尽管进入汽车行业后，我很快就了解到，汽车价格自然会上涨。每年春天，拍卖会和批发二手车的价值总是会升值，这是一个现象。这在我跟踪的27年中每年都发生过。所以你知道，这总是可能的。但是独特的条件——关闭世界上每家工厂并同时增加需求，这确实是我们在过去几年中经历的原因。而且，我们仍然慢慢地看到一些事情回归正常，使我们可以更准确地跟踪和预测。但对于我们所有人来说，这肯定是未知的领域。
What does that depreciation curve look like for our use vehicle? So at an individual car level, usually a car loses about 12% of value. In pre-pendemic times, it was miraculous actually how 12% became the average across all model years. Now, technically model years vary a little bit and so you do tend to see older vehicles, especially vehicles that are five years of age or older, very consistently deliver that amount of appreciation and always stay in very close relationship to mileage as well. So they're very, very, very predictable. The nuances that we see kind of throughout the year, I mentioned, you know, during the spring, we normally see wholesale use vehicle values go up and that's because tax refunds drive and an inordinate amount of demand in the spring. You tend to have six to 10 weeks of wholesale prices going up because even though that time of year is pretty well known and predictable, it's impossible to line up the supply to address it perfectly. So as a result, within a calendar year, you usually have less depreciation in the first half of the year because you've got that strange period of time where values are stable or even going up. And so as a result, vehicles tend to lose more of their value in the second half of the year. And then also coincides, when new vehicles are typically have their new models coming out and when new models are coming out, the older version of the new models that are in normal times still sitting on dealer lots get heavy incentives and more discounting and that's also part of the reason why there's usually more depreciation in the back half of the year.
我们的二手车的折旧曲线是什么样的？一辆车通常会贬值约12％。在疫情前，令人惊讶的是，12％成为各个车型年份的平均值。现在，技术上车型年份有些差异，因此您会发现特别是五年以上的旧车，贬值率非常稳定，并始终与里程数保持密切关系。因此，它们非常非常可预测。我们在全年内看到的微妙差异，我提到了春季，通常我们会看到批发二手车价格上涨，这是因为税收退款驱动了春季过度需求。你通常会看到六到十周的批发价格上涨，因为尽管那个时候的市场已经非常稳定和可预测，但要完美地解决供应问题是不可能的。因此，在一年的日历中，通常在上半年的折旧相对较少，因为您拥有那个奇特的时间段，在这段时间内，价值稳定或甚至上涨。因此，车辆 tend to lose more of their value in the second half of the year, 也与新车通常有新的车型推出以及汽车经销商还有一些无法消化的旧款汽车有关，所以促销折扣更多，这也是一年后折旧率较大的原因之一。
I'm curious as you've sort of been in this position where, or let's just say your job has gotten a lot more interesting in the last couple of years. And I'm just going to guess that based on how my job has got interesting. But tell us about, like, how did you even get here? What is your background and what did you do prior to this? How did you get your current position? I think that context is important before we dig deeper into the economy and just abroad a car market.
我很好奇你是否曾经处在这个位置上，或者我们可以说你的工作在过去的几年中变得更加有趣。我只是猜测，因为我的工作也变得越来越有趣了。但是请告诉我们，你是如何到达这里的？你的背景是什么，之前你做了什么？你是如何得到现在的职位的？我认为在我们深入了解经济和国外汽车市场之前，了解这些背景信息是很重要的。
Yeah, my journey to get to where I am today was certainly not a straight path. I basically, first of all, never sought out to be an economist. I studied economics and I loved economics, but I was a very practical, I want to have an impact on the world, wanted to see results. And no way did I want to go down an academic path. And that was pretty much what I thought the economics world was. So I worked, I worked for a year and ended up then going to graduate school and got an MBA and went into management consulting in the 90s. And is the case for anybody that's ever been a management consultant? My first project happened to be with a home building company.
是的，我今天所在的位置的旅程肯定不是一条直线。首先，我从来没有想过要成为一名经济学家。我学习经济学，我喜欢经济学，但我非常实际，我想对这个世界产生影响，想看到成果。我绝不想走学术路线，因为我认为经济学领域就是如此。所以我工作了一年，然后去读了研究生，获得了MBA学位，并在90年代进入了管理咨询行业。就像任何一位曾经是管理咨询师的人一样，我的第一个项目恰好是与一个房屋建筑公司合作的。
And on my second assignment six months in at another real estate related company, that made me a real estate expert. And so I was destined to be in that home building in real estate. I was checking out your LinkedIn and I was looking through the back, I was like, interesting, interesting path over here. Yeah, yeah. So and I was in that industry first as a consultant and then I ended up working in a corporate office of what became a top five large public home building company in the country.
在我另一个与房地产有关的公司工作了六个月后的第二项任务中，我成为了一个房地产专家。所以我注定在房屋建筑和房地产领域活跃着。我查看了你的领英（LinkedIn）并回顾了一下，我觉得这是一条有趣的职业路径。是的，我是首先从事房地产咨询的，然后在一个成为全国前五大上市房屋建筑公司的企业办公室工作。
And eventually in my position, I basically saw how critical it was to have data to drive decisions that we were making. Because in home building, if you mess up on buying the land and you overpay or you buy in the wrong location, you just screwed results for like the next five to 10 years. And it is amazing how, especially back when I started in that industry in the mid 90s, how limited information was being used to really drive decision making. So I ended up being responsible for strategy and basically built up an economics team and started to work with well known economists like Mark Zandee, Moody's Analytics and using that data to help us kind of make decisions.
在我的职位上，我最终基本上看到了数据对我们所做决策有多么重要。因为在房屋建造业中，如果您在购买土地时出错且过度支付或购买了错误的位置，您会破坏未来五到十年的结果。尤其是在我于90年代中期开始从事该行业时，真正推动决策的信息非常有限。 因此，我最终负责策略，并基本上建立了一个经济学团队，并开始与知名经济学家（例如Mark Zandee、Moody's Analytics）合作，利用这些数据来帮助我们做出决策。
And I decided back in 2006 to take my ideas and form my own company. So I started a website, started to do some things and it was going brilliantly until the great recession unfolded and I ended up having to sell my business to a company that eventually named me Chief Economist because of what I was doing with our data and working with clients.
我于2006年决定将自己的想法实践，创建自己的公司。我开办了一个网站，着手做一些事情，进展非常顺利，直到大萧条爆发。最终我不得不将我的公司卖给了一家公司，并因我与客户合作并处理数据的能力被任命为首席经济学家。
And that ultimately eventually got me as the first Chief Economist for realtor.com in the real estate space and boy, those were the years where Zillow, Trulia Redfin, realtor.com were really, it was an arms race on the economics and analytics side. And I learned about the opportunity at Cox and people said I was crazy because I was leaving what I had spent over 20 years developing a reputation and in real estate. But I'd always loved cars. I thought it was an incredible opportunity to have a position with Cox, which was known to me personally.
最终，我成为了房地产网站realtor.com的首位首席经济学家。那时候，Zillow、Trulia、Redfin和realtor.com正处于经济和分析方面的军备竞赛中。在Cox公司发现机会时，有人认为我很疯狂，因为我已在房地产行业建立了20多年的声誉。但我一直很喜欢汽车，我认为这是一个极好的机会能在我所熟悉的Cox公司担任职位。
I'd lived in Atlanta for quite a while and knew lots of folks in various parts of Cox. Plus as a data guy at the end of the day, you couldn't dream of a place that's better for having unique detailed proprietary insights into every corner of the automotive business. So I jumped at the opportunity. I've been here a little over six years and you're absolutely right. It has been a very interesting time. Only one also to be an economist in just more broadly looking at the economy and all the things that's been, things that have been impacting us. But I have zero regrets. This has been a wonderful place to be.
我之前生活在亚特兰大已经有一段时间了，认识了许多来自不同地区的人。由于作为一名数据专家，你无法梦想找到一个能够提供汽车行业每个角落独特详细专有见解的更好的地方。所以我毫不犹豫地抓住了这个机会。我在这里已经待了六年多，你说得对，这是一个非常有趣的时期。除此之外，我也作为一个经济学家广泛关注整个经济以及影响我们的各种事情。但是我没有任何遗憾，这是一个非常棒的地方。
So six years, right? Now the business has transformed an incredible amount just in the past couple of years. I think there's no doubt about it. The 2000s, we saw the rise in the internet and websites. And then in the early 2010s, we got this kind of reinvented online carbine in 2013, you had shift, you had room, you had carbonate. But I mean, the last six years, what have been the most impactful changes or transformations that you've witnessed in the car business?
六年时间，对吧？过去几年间，这个行业变化巨大，这是毋庸置疑的。在2000年代，我们见证了互联网和网站的崛起。而在2010年代初期，我们看到了网络汽车的重新发明，2013年也涌现了Shift、Room和Carbonate等新型汽车企业。但是，过去的六年里，你所见证的汽车行业最具影响力的变化或转型有哪些？
Well, I think absolutely digitization, the movement to transact and completely online and the pandemic forced that issue on the wholesale side and the business to business side in a way that I don't know if we ever would have been able to get some dealers to consider transacting the way that they now transact naturally today. Because basically close to 80% of the transactions at Mannheim are now digital in some reform or fashion. This was a business that up until the pandemic started was really sort of struggling with the idea of letting go with the good old days and the people that would talk about the fried chicken at Mannheim and the experience of being there on sale day.
我认为数字化是绝对的趋势，即在线进行全面交易。疫情迫使批发业和企业间交易这个议题上演进到一种程度，我们不知道是否能够让一些经销商考虑采用今天所自然采用的方式进行交易。事实上，近80％的曼海姆交易现在以某种形式进行数字化。在疫情开始之前，这个行业真的在艰难地面对放弃过去的好时光和那些谈论曼海姆炸鸡和在卖场上体验的人们。
And don't get me wrong. As an economist, watching a vehicle auction and especially being at the biggest lots in the country like Atlanta, Riverside, California, Mannheim, PA, there was nothing quite watching 36 lanes with simultaneous bidding and what was taking place. So the movement to digital, there's no question that has been the biggest transformative change and it's one that's still ongoing. We haven't seen the end of that.
不要误解我的意思。作为一名经济学家，在观看车辆拍卖，尤其是在像亚特兰大、加利福尼亚州的河滨和宾夕法尼亚州曼海姆这样的全国最大的拍卖场时，没有什么比看着36条车道同时竞标和发生的事情更有趣的了。所以转向数字化，毫无疑问，这是最大的变革之一，而且它仍在持续。我们还没有看到最终形态。
Why do you like that? Right? I don't want to understand what's your take on movement to digital here? I think it's very controversial within the industry now. Different players, but they think you have different opinions. But what's your perspective? Yeah. I would say I don't necessarily have a strong opinion like I'm rooting for one side or the other. There is definitely benefits to a data guy though. The more digital a transaction is, the more of information that's being captured and insights that we can leverage. In fact, information becomes part and parcel of people's decision making.
你为什么喜欢那个？对吧？我不想理解你对数字化运动的看法是什么？在这个行业内，我认为这是非常有争议的。有不同的参与者，但他们认为你有不同的意见。但你的观点是什么？是的。我会说我并没有像支持哪一方或另一方这样强烈的观点。对于数据人员来说，数字交易越多，被捕获的信息和我们能够利用的见解就越多。实际上，信息已成为人们决策的一部分。
To me, that's probably a huge improvement. I love to, I love the idea of being a part of this and helping the industry. You mentioned the fried chicken at Mannheim. Listen, I've been to Mannheim, Pennsylvania more times than I can count. When did you start at COX 2017? Was it?
对我来说，那可能是一个巨大的改善。我非常乐意成为其中的一员，并帮助这个行业。你提到了曼海姆的炸鸡。听着，我去过宾夕法尼亚州曼海姆的次数不计其数。你是在2017年加入COX的吗？是吗？
Yeah, early in 2017. Okay. So I'll tell you a secret. In 2016, I want to say, maybe in 2015, I won't forget this because we found this, I want to say it was a hurts or someone was having a big sale and they were selling, they were selling a bunch of inexpensive Chevy's and stuff like that. But I just won't forget that. The price disparities were so great. It was the first time where we were like, wow, we just got in the insane deals at an auction and it really fit our market very well.
好的，早在2017年的时候。那好吧，我来告诉你一个秘密。在2016年或者2015年的时候，我想说，我们发现了一些价钱非常合适的雪佛兰以及其他品牌的便宜车型。因为某个公司正在打折促销。但是这件事情真的让我难以忘怀。价格的差异如此之大，这是我们第一次发现我们可以在拍卖会上获得如此优惠的交易，而且非常适合我们的市场。
We had all of our margins on those cars were definitely better than other sales on a relative basis. But I don't forget that sale or that entire period because I just remember how we bought like 50 Chevy's in a single sale or like two sales or something. I just remember the sales team, like what the fuck is going on? What are you guys doing? But we're like, no, no, trust me. These are purchased so well, like an idiot could sell them and it was exactly what happened and I won't lie. I missed that.
我们的所有汽车的利润率相对于其它销售渠道来说都非常高。但我不会忘记那次销售或整个时期，因为我仍然记得我们在一个销售活动中买了大约50辆雪佛兰。我记得销售团队当时非常惊讶，问我们到底在做什么，但我们强调说这些车的采购非常划算，哪怕一个白痴也能卖掉它们。最终也确实如此，我不得不承认，我很怀念那段时期。
I mean, who wouldn't miss that? That was the last year because I remember that like every year after that, you just got more competitive. There were like more venture dollars flowing into the space. Cars were being bit up closer to their, I guess, you know, fair market price are even higher. That was for me as you know, having been in the business for a while. That was the last year where I remember we were like, wow, like there's this inefficient see that no one knows about. I felt like I had a secret, you know, indeed.
我的意思是，谁不会想念那个时期呢？那是最后一年，因为我记得从那一年开始，你们就变得更有竞争力了。有更多的风险资本流入这个领域。汽车价格越来越贵，接近它们的公平市场价格甚至更高。对于我来说，作为在业务中已经有一段时间的人，那是最后一年，我记得我们像“哇”一样的感觉，就好像这是一个没有人知道的低效率领域，我感觉有一个秘密，你知道的。
So along with that, you know, didn't need fried chicken, but I did love the egg, the eggs and the hamburgers. They were, they were great. I know exactly we're talking about. All right. So enough about me. I think you're a recap it. I think we said about the industry transforming to do those correct. COVID induced adoption has been just incredible, right? Like block downs, all that, right? That's like a dream come true in order to get tech adoption.
所以，除了这些，你知道，我并不需要炸鸡，但我真的喜欢鸡蛋和汉堡。它们非常好吃。我知道你们明白我在说什么。好了，关于我就说这么多。我认为你们应该总结一下。我们谈到了行业正在转型以符合这些要求。COVID-19所引发的采用率变革非常惊人，对吧？像封锁措施等等，这真是实现技术采用的一个梦想成真。
I think another question that I'm getting a lot now, because this is obviously out of a big impact on the market is like, do you think that this has led us now into forever case shaped market? And what I mean by that for the audience and you of course know is, look, car prices nowadays, you have a new cars at record highs or close to record highs, use cars close to record highs. Rates of course are at, I don't know, decade highs. You know better than me, but 20 year highs, 20 year highs.
我觉得我现在经常被问到的另一个问题，因为这显然对市场产生了巨大的影响，就是您是否认为这已经让我们进入了一个永远呈盒状的市场呢？我所指的是，现在汽车价格非常高，新车和二手车价格接近历史高点，而利率当然也处于十年高点，或许是20年高点，您比我更清楚。
There you go.
你拿好了。这句话多用于交给对方物品或完成某项任务后的表达。
What's next for the business? Like how should someone think about this, whether a dealer or a consumer and when it comes to car prices, right?
对于这个业务接下来的规划是什么？不论是车商还是消费者，在出现车价变化的时候，要如何思考呢？
What do you see on the horizon for new cars and use cars in the next couple of years?
在接下来的几年里，你认为新车和二手车市场有什么发展趋势？
Well, fundamentally, this is a still very supply constrained market and one that is not why I'm sorry, kind of, why? People think that like Toyota is colluding with like Kia, like what's the deal, right? And by the way, I'm not saying that's true. I'm just saying what people are de-eving me in rumors, but like, how are we still supply constraints three years after lockdowns?
基本上，这是一个供应非常紧缩的市场，并且这不是我抱歉的原因，为什么？人们认为像丰田与起亚勾结，这是什么情况，对吧？顺便说一下，我不是在说这是真的。我只是说人们在谣言中错误地指责我，但是，我们在封锁三年后仍然面临供应瓶颈如何？
Well, it's kind of like how we started, you know, would you have envisioned a world in which the prices went up the way that they did? And the answer is no, because no one and with the same mind four years ago would have said, okay, we're going to shut every factory in the world down. Simultaneously, we're going to unleash the possibility for everyone that has a job in the United States to work remotely and choose to live perhaps in less population dense areas and become even more car dependent when the whole world was trying to sell us in 2017 that we were at peak vehicle ownership and vehicle ownership was inevitably going to be replaced by miles and miles of autonomous taxis that were going to take us, you know, everywhere.
嗯，这有点像我们开始时的情况，你知道的，你想过价格会像现在这样涨吗？答案是否定的，因为四年前没有人会想到我们会将世界上的所有工厂关闭。同时，我们将为所有在美国有工作的人提供远程工作的可能性，选择在人口密度较低的地区生活，并变得更加依赖汽车，当整个世界在2017年试图向我们出售理念，即我们正在拥有最高的车辆拥有率，车辆拥有率无可避免将被大量无人驾驶出租车所取代，带我们走向任何地方。
So, we've ended up in a world that over the last four years, the car park or what we call in the industry, the number of vehicles that are available out there, which is every new vehicle and every existing vehicle that's registered and being operated has essentially not changed. When in the prior 10 years, we were averaging adding four to five million vehicles a year to the car park.
因此，过去四年来，我们发现我们的世界里停车场或者说汽车数量在行业中称作的车库，也就是所有新的车辆和现有被注册、正在运营的车辆总数基本没有变化。而在过去的十年里，我们平均每年都会增加四到五百万辆车。
That's the difference between new vehicle production and sales into the car park minus the number of vehicles we lose or the scrapage rate. So effectively, the pie didn't change, but yet we simultaneously increased demand because population was growing. Jobs were growing through that time. More licensed drivers were growing.
这就是新车生产和销售到停车场上，减去我们损失的车辆或废弃率之间的区别。因此，实际上饼图没有改变，但我们却同时增加了需求，因为人口正在增长。在那段时间里，就业岗位和持证驾驶员人数也在增长。
And as I mentioned, people were actually moving away from places that they could depend on public transportation more and moving to places that were far more car dependent. We also have some exhibit right here.
正如我所提到的，人们实际上开始远离那些更依赖公共交通的地方，转而移居到更依赖汽车的地方。我们这里也有一些展品。
You did it too, huh? I did exactly that exactly. I would say, I'm out. I am not staying here. Yeah.
你也这么做了，是吗？我也完全那样做了。我会说，我走了。我不会待在这里。是的。
And so the end result has been this disconnect between supply and demand. Then we had the invasion of Ukraine in a series of things last year that basically caused the ability for new vehicle production to just bounce back. It's been very difficult path for vehicle production to recover. So instead of popping right back to 17 million, we actually declined last year because you had an earthquake in Japan.
因此，最终的结果就是供需之间的脱节。去年，乌克兰被入侵造成一系列问题，从而导致新汽车生产的能力减弱。车辆生产的恢复过程非常困难。因此，我们的汽车生产量并没有像本应立即反弹至1700万一样，而是下降了。这是由于日本发生了地震。
You had COVID lockdowns in China that really impacted much of Asian production. You had the war in Ukraine really disrupting things in Europe, even though the war itself wasn't necessarily impacting factories directly. It was raising the cost of energy and all kinds of things that essentially all conspired, if you will, to limit what could be done.
在中国有COVID封锁，这真的影响了亚洲生产的很多方面。在乌克兰的战争也造成了欧洲的诸多不安，即使战争本身并没有直接影响工厂。它提高了能源成本和各种成本，所有这些都在阻碍着实现更多的事情。
And yet we had $4 trillion in stimulus put into the economy where at zero interest rate policy for the Fed to keep the economy going. You had just perfect conditions to not only have people becoming more car dependent because if not wanting to take public transportation or moving to places that were more car dependent, you actually had an abnormal environment that otherwise would have predicted that vehicle demand was going to be boosted simply because of consumers' economic situation and the level of interest rates and how easy it was to get credit.
然而，我们已经在经济中注入了4万亿美元的刺激措施，联邦利率为零，以维持经济发展。正是在这样完美的条件下，人们才更加倾向于开车，因为他们不想乘坐公共交通工具或搬到更加倾向于使用汽车的地方。实际上，由于消费者的经济状况和利率水平以及信贷的易得性，在这种异常环境下，预测汽车需求将会提高。
And we're still not back to that level of production that would cause even the new car market to be at equilibrium with supply and demand. And that's why we just this year across the point where consumers are actually paying less than sticker for vehicles and that was an unheard of concept prior to the last couple of years.
我们仍然没有恢复到能够让新车市场与供需达到平衡的生产水平。这就是为什么今年我们刚刚达到了消费者购买汽车时不用支付指导价的水平，这在过去几年是不可想象的概念。
I saw you guys put out that insight. I tweeted that. Yeah.
我看到你们发布了那篇见解。我在推特上发了那个。是的。
意思：我注意到你们发布了某个见解，我已经在推特上转发了这个信息。
So I want to double click on one thing you said, we're still not back. Explain to the average person, why does Ford or Chevy have vehicles or Jeep have supply. But Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Lexus, Toyota is the number one retailer by units or volume. So I understand they sell more, but just explain to us like how have the domestic brands rebound it so well and whereas the Asia brands have not.
我想强调你刚才说的一件事情：我们仍然没有完全恢复。请用通俗易懂的语言解释一下，为什么福特、雪佛兰或吉普拥有车辆或供应，而丰田、现代、起亚、雷克萨斯和丰田却没有。虽然我知道它们卖得更多，但请解释一下为什么国内品牌的反弹如此出色，而亚洲品牌却没有。
Well, there's a global regional lens to this. So you had unique circumstances in Asia that basically caused that recovery and production to be furthest behind and running into issues that made them actually lose ground in some cases last year. That was particularly for a lot of the Japanese production because a lot of their supply chain was a little bit more dependent on China, a little bit more dependent on the region that was having a much tougher time, quote unquote, getting back to normal.
这个问题存在全球和区域性的考虑。亚洲面临着独特的情况，导致复苏和生产落后，并在某些情况下失去了优势。这尤其适用于很多日本生产部门，因为他们的供应链更加依赖中国和该地区，而这些地方在恢复正常的进程中遇到了更大的困难。
The other end of the spectrum here in North America, we were blessed to get the vaccines earlier to see people returning to more normal activity. So a lot of our factories and a lot of our supply chains improve. But even so, Stellantis Ford GM, they were still had components that for decades ever since the original NAFTA was created, the entire industry was very focused on where is the cheapest possible place in the world to produce every single component and have them all come together really in the assembly of the vehicle.
在北美地区，光谱的另一端是我们非常幸运地早早获得了疫苗，看到人们重新回到更正常的生活。因此，我们的许多工厂和供应链得到了提升。但即便如此，斯泰兰蒂斯、福特和通用汽车仍然存在组件问题。自从最初的《北美自由贸易协定》创建以来的数十年中，整个行业非常专注于在世界上哪个地方生产每个组件的成本最低，并将它们组合在车辆的组装中。
Well, COVID taught the industry in the entire manufacturing world that there's a price to pay when you have actual disruptions to transportation and factory production. So we now at sea manufacturing going from that world that was absolutely focused on the lowest cost and the single best place to produce something to something that's a bit more resilient and able to withstand disruptions and that is adding an additional layer of time that it takes to get us, quote unquote, back to 100% production levels.
新冠状病毒教会了整个制造业界，当你的运输和工厂生产真正受到干扰时，有代价要付出。因此，我们现在看到海上制造业正在从那个完全专注于最低成本和最好的生产场所的世界转向更具弹性和能够抵御干扰的世界，并且这增加了回到100％生产水平所需的额外时间。
And then the third component is labor. Even in North America, we're not recovered on labor because guess what? We've had a labor shortage. We have the lowest unemployment rate since the Korean War. So no one on this podcast, and probably no one listening this podcast was alive the last time the unemployment rate was lower than it is right now.
第三个组成部分是劳动力。即使在北美，我们在劳动力方面也没有恢复，因为猜猜看？我们一直面临劳动力短缺问题。我们的失业率是自朝鲜战争以来最低的。所以，在这个播客中没人，可能在这个播客中听的人也没有活过上次失业率比现在更低的情况。
And as a result, even when you add we've got a strike potentially coming with the UAW this September was Stalantis, firmly in its target. You basically have a scenario that probably even the North American production wasn't as aggressive as it typically would have been in trying to hire people and getting factories back up to three shifts and and running production. Oh, and by the way, we're changing to electric vehicles. And that causes retooling and changes at every part of the entire ecosystem.
因此，即使加上我们可能在九月面临的UAW罢工，Stalantis也坚定地将其作为目标。你基本上会看到，即使在北美生产方面，试图雇用人员并让工厂恢复到三班轮换生产的进度通常会更加积极，现在情况可能不会这么激烈。另外，我们正在转向电动汽车。这导致整个生态系统的每个部分都需要进行改造和变革。
And that too sort of creates a layer of change that I think really made it difficult for us to snap back. And so at the tip of the funnel, that's where new vehicle production is. We need to be at 17 million to really sort of offset the deficit that's been happening at the top. And then in the use market, particularly in what we see at Manheim and in the wholesale, what is being driven for the wholesale market that feeds use retail is really a product of what has happened in the new market over the last three years.
此外，这也创造了一层变化，我认为这使我们很难恢复过来。在漏斗的顶端，新车生产是其中之一。我们需要生产1700万辆车才能真正平衡发生在顶部的赤字。然后，在二手市场上，特别是在我们在Manheim和批发市场看到的情况中，为二手零售市场提供的批发市场推动的产品实际上是过去三年新市场发生的结果。
And where the market has been most starved are in the channels that actually traditionally feed the wholesale market and feed the use retail market, namely sales into fleets, sales into rental, sales into leases. And we've got such a deficit there that when you add both new and used together, we don't think it's possible for us to get to some quote unquote normal space for at least five years. That's how long it's going to take.
市场最缺乏的是传统上为批发市场和零售市场提供渠道的领域，即出售给车队、出售租赁和出售到租赁市场。我们在这方面有如此巨大的逆差，以至于即使将新车和二手车加起来，我们也认为至少需要五年的时间才能达到所谓的正常水平。这就是需要的时间。
And that's assuming you dropped a lot of knowledge box here. So normal space within five years, I, that's something I wanted to ask you. Before we get there, the first question I asked you is about domestic versus Asian brands. And you mentioned three different components that have created shortage.
假设你在这里分享了很多知识，这还是基于正常情况下的五年时间，我有一个问题想问你。在此之前，我要先问你一个问题，关于国内品牌和亚洲品牌的区别。你提到了三个不同的因素导致了短缺。
But what I want to understand is the dealer down his street from you right now has plenty of jeeps in stock, but the Toyota dealer next door has none. Is that mainly a component of present date demand? Maybe that Toyota has more demand than that jeep, or is it just a domestic brands have done a better job at rebounding their manufacturer facilities? So there's a supply component to what you're describing and a demand component with those two brands specifically called out on the supply side.
我想理解的是，你们街上的经销商现在有很多吉普车库存，但隔壁的丰田经销商没有。这主要是现在的需求组成吗？也许丰田的需求比吉普更高，或者是国内品牌在复苏制造设施方面做得更好？所以，您所描述的是供应方面的供应组成和两个品牌的需求组成。
There is no question North American production, whether it's the traditional domestic brands or some of the brands that rely more heavily on North American production are in a much better place and are much more likely to be closer to the level of production they had in 2019 right now than say the factories that are producing vehicles in Japan, Korea, or Europe. It shocks me because all I learned about my whole life was Toyota, you know, they're the cream of the crop.
毫无疑问，无论是传统的国内品牌还是更依赖北美生产的某些品牌，北美生产都处于更好的位置，并且比在日本、韩国或欧洲生产车辆的工厂更有可能接近2019年的生产水平。令我震惊的是，我整个人生所学到的关于丰田的一切都算不上什么，你知道的，他们是上上之选。
And it's like, I don't know. I would have thought that they would figure out their manufacturing better earlier than anyone else. Well, they had some bad luck. I mentioned it sort of dismissed a lot, but there was an earthquake early last year that hit Japan impacted some of their supply chain and in particular their access to semiconductors. So it set them back. There was a while in, especially in the first half of 2021, it looked like Toyota had planned this perfectly.
这就像是，我不知道。我本以为他们会比其他人更早地解决好制造问题。嗯，他们运气不好。我稍微提了一下，但去年早些时候日本发生了一场地震，影响了他们的供应链，尤其是对半导体的获取。这导致他们落后了。在2021年的前半年里，特别是在开始的时候，看起来丰田已经完美地计划好了。
And was going to navigate the supply issues, take share from all the other brands and that pretty much ended up being the case for calendar year of 21. But boy, did that story change last year and that was, it was more a function of a lot of bad luck. And when you look at the day supply and we publish that information, you know every, every week, we still see Toyota at the very bottom and, you know, Jeep and Ram are at the, at the other end of the spectrum. Historically Toyota has been close to the bot. They are used to working in a low environment, but it's abnormally low now. And a lot of that has to do with really bad luck that it impacted Toyota and some of their counterparts in Asia more than it did the North American brands.
去年的情况与之前不同，虽然当初公司计划通过解决供应问题从其他品牌夺取市场份额，但是去年的变故又一次打乱了计划，这主要是因为运气不佳。我们每周都公布库存天数数据，历史上，丰田一直是位于底部的，他们已经习惯了在低库存环境下工作，但现在这种情况是非常异常的。这主要是因为运气不佳，对亚洲地区的丰田以及同行影响更大，相比北美品牌。而克莱斯勒和道奇则相对库存充足。
Definitely. But there is a demand component to this too. And I figured that, but I was wondering how much of it is really demand versus supply. Just figured that, you know, they would figure out supply faster and better. And I think you hit the nail on the head. You just said something of very concerning.
当然，这也有需求方的因素。我之前就考虑过这个问题，但我不确定实际上有多少是需求影响，多少是供应影响。我原本以为他们能更快更好地解决供应问题，但你刚才说得很对。你刚才说的话让我感到非常担忧。
I think to a lot of people, which he said, five years to normalization. What the heck does that mean? Like what is normalization? Do we get back to pre-COVID price levels? Like what does that really mean? Let's just double click on that. Yeah. Well, I love you brought that up because I get that question on the time. And are we going to get back to 2019 prices? Dr. Elbrough. The answer to that question is never at no point. By the way, I give the same answer, but I'm curious to see how you're going to answer that.
我认为对很多人来说，他所说的“五年回归正常化”这个说法很不明白。正常化到底是什么意思？是指我们将回到疫情前的价格水平吗？具体指的是什么？让我们仔细地探讨一下吧。确实很有意思，请允许我来回答这个问题，因为我也时常会接到这样的问题。我们是否会恢复到2019年的价格水平呢？埃尔布鲁医生。对于这个问题的答案是：绝不可能。顺便说一句，我也会给出同样的答案，但我很好奇你会如何回答。
Well, at no point in history, and we've got examples like after big hurricanes that destroy a large amount of vehicles. And there's demand to replace those vehicles happening at the same time. There has never been a case that an increase in prices results in prices in the vehicle market going back to what they once were. Vehicle prices are very sticky, and it's more that you have step changes in what occurs in the prices, especially in a world that is supply constrained. And there is no question that we are supply constrained.
在历史上没有这样的情况，我们可以举出像大型飓风后摧毁了大量车辆的例子。此时有需求来替换这些车辆，但这从未导致车市价格上涨后回到原来的水平。汽车价格非常稳定，通常会出现价格发生突变的情况，尤其在供应受限的世界中更是如此。毫无疑问，我们的供应是受限的。
So then when I talk about it, taking five years, it's the holistic view when you look at what the path for a new vehicle production is going to be. And it's probably the new vehicle market will be getting closer to the possibility of 17 million in less time. Let's say three years. There's definitely a way. And just to tell the audio, like 17 million is considered normal, right? 17 million new units sold per year. That's considered more or less normal. That's right. That's right. I think it's going to be a struggle to get there because you've got these other issues that we were just talking about.
所以当我谈到它需要五年时，我指的是从一个新车辆生产路径的整体视角来看。也许在三年内新车市场就会接近达到1700万的可能性。当然，要说明一下，1700万是被认为是正常水平的，每年售出1700万辆新车。我认为要达到这个数字将是一场艰苦的斗争，因为我们还面临其他问题，正像我们刚刚谈到的那样。
There is still lingering on the supply chain side. The movement to electrification means retooling of factories, the decolonization, take some capacity out. You've got costs relentlessly going up on that side too that suggests that maybe we're going to be in a lower volume environment in order to address the fact that affordability has been reduced as well. So it's not necessarily going to be a snapback to 17 plus the way that prior recoveries might have played out. But it's the wholesale and the use side that takes the longest amount of time to completely normalize.
供应链方面仍然存在着一些问题。汽车电气化的进程意味着需要重新装备工厂，减少产能。同时，相关成本不断增加，这表明我们可能需要在降低汽车价格的同时接受低容量的市场环境。因此，恢复到之前2017年的汽车产量并不是一件容易的事情。但是，汽车批发和使用方面需要更长的时间来完全恢复正常。
What does that basically practically means? It means the use car market is going to be limited in potential for the number of transactions that occur, which means that for dealers that have really focused more on the use car market over the last five years, say, especially franchise dealers, maintaining growth and maintaining the level of volumes and revenue that they got from their use car department is going to be much more challenging and much more competitive because especially we've got a lack of younger vehicles that means virtually every dealer is competing for vehicles that are five to ten years of age, which used to have unique lanes on the.
这句话的意思是什么？基本上实际上意味着什么？这意味着二手车市场的交易量潜力将受到限制，这意味着对于那些在过去五年中更加关注二手车市场的经销商，尤其是加盟经销商，要保持增长和保持他们从二手车部门获得的销量和收入水平将更具挑战性和更具竞争力，因为现在缺少年轻车辆，这使得实际上每个经销商都在争夺5至10年的车辆，这些车辆曾经在二手车市场上有独特的车道。
So for people listening in dealership terms, use cars that's going to shit. That's good. It's not, I wouldn't say it's going to shit because it's really one that is still going to have positive dynamics because dealers are awesome entrepreneurs and they know how to respond to the market and we're all you seating evidence of this. How are they dealing with the more limited market? They're reducing overall levels of inventory and they're turning inventory far more rapidly. We're seeing turns that are probably meaning that most dealers are focused on 30 days or less for their typical turn on inventory. And so as a result, as the market sees periods of strength like we had at the very beginning of the year or when the market starts to see slowing down like we've been experiencing over roughly the last six weeks, dealers can more rapidly adjust and they focus on.
因此，对于在经销商术语听取的人来说，使用正在崩溃的汽车是好的。这是好的。我不会说它正在崩溃，因为它仍然具有积极的动力学，因为经销商是出色的企业家，他们知道如何应对市场，我们所有人都是这个证据的见证者。他们如何应对市场的限制？他们正在减少总库存水平，并使库存转动更迅速。我们看到的转动可能意味着大多数经销商通常关注库存的30天或更短的周转。因此，当市场看到像我们在年初或当市场开始看到我们在大约过去的六周中经历的放缓时，经销商可以更快速地进行调整和专注。
Are you seeing anything else to do? Any other ways dealers are responding to just lack of inventory into market? I think looking for ways to be as productive and as efficient as possible. That is, you know, services in area that I haven't heard you actually talk about much on your podcast yet, but it's. Are you talking to the service department? Service.
你们看到还有其他的事情需要做吗？经销商对市场库存不足作出的其他反应方式有哪些？我认为应该寻找尽可能提高生产力和效率的方法。也就是说，你知道，在我还没有听你们的播客谈论的领域，比如服务。你有跟服务部门交流吗？服务。
Yeah, yeah. I have some great stuff coming up for service. I've very strategically planned the segment. I have really good stuff on wholesale coming up. Just wait, it's going to be really good. All right. So we're going to talk about that a lot. We'll be back to maybe do some color commentary on what we see. Yeah, I mean, man, we'll be doing this quarterly. This could definitely be a recurring thing, I'm sure people will love it.
是的，是的。我即将为服务带来一些很棒的东西。我非常有策略地计划了这段话。我有一些关于批发的非常好的东西即将到来。等着瞧，肯定会很不错的。好的。所以我们将会谈论很多关于这个的东西。也许我们会回过来在我们看到的东西上做一些彩色评论。是的，我的意思是，我们将进行季度性的讨论。这肯定是一个不断出现的事情，我相信人们会喜欢它的。
But yeah, look, I think I've been very. Look, we're used only and it's. We're feeling the headwinds, especially if you skew more like near subprime on credit spectrum of consumers. It's very tough out there, I would say. You know, I see that the. You know, just friends and dealers that are maybe they're in the south or they. You know, self-trocks or $30,000 plus vehicles. They're actually. their business has been a lot more consistent on the use side. And of course, you know, finance ability or, you know, just approvability for their customers has been better. So that's sort of what I've been seeing there.
嗯，我觉得我一直很清楚。我们只能使用特定的方式，而且情况很糟糕。尤其是对于信用谱系接近亚高级的消费者来说，面临很大的困难。我可以说那里很艰难。你知道的，我看到了一些朋友和经销商，他们可能在南方或者他们销售自卸车或者30,000美元以上的汽车。 他们的二手车业务一直很稳定。当然，他们的客户的财务能力或批准能力更好。这就是我所看到的情况。
There's no doubt about it that everything you just said, I mean, is correct, right? Like less inventory, fewer cars, focusing on efficiencies elsewhere, putting more focus on. Well, let's talk about who's getting squeezed, right? Like I can tell you straight up who's getting squeezed. Vendors are getting squeezed. Especially if you're not a. If you're not a vendor that's generating more cash flow, if you know, whether it be just some organizational tool, something for project management, I mean, anything like that, you're likely getting squeezed.
毫无疑问，你刚才说的一切都是正确的，是吧？像减少存货、减少车辆、在其他方面专注于效率提升、更加专注于。嗯，让我们谈谈谁会受到挤压，对吧？我可以直说，谁会受到挤压。供应商会受到挤压。特别是如果你不是那种能够带来更多现金流的供应商，如同某些组织管理工具、项目管理工具，或其他任何类似的东西，你很可能会受到挤压。
And by squeeze, I mean, we're trying to like a brain of negotiate, find a different vendor of whatever it is. I mean, we need to make sure that not only are we preserving our margins, but that we're increasing our margins at a time like this where volume is down. I mean, volume has been the biggest challenge for us, not so much the margins, but volume, right? We're selling, you know, a lot less cars than we would have at any April or May in any prior year. You go back to 2019, we're selling fewer cars, 2018. So it's been very, very challenging.
“挤压”这里指的是像大脑一样思考，尝试寻找不同的供应商或办法。我们不仅需要保护利润率，还要在销售量下降的情况下增加利润率。销售量是我们面临的最大挑战，不是利润率。我们卖出的汽车比之前的任何一年的4月或5月都要少。回到2019年或2018年，我们的销售量都在下降。这是非常具有挑战性的。
And, you know, I just having had conversations, I've been very vocal about, you know, just diversify. And I think that you're right. Like, everyone that invests is so heavily in used over the past couple of years right now is entering just a very challenging period where you're likely not going to see top line growth or you're going to have to struggle to even get there. Our baseline forecast, so throwing out the possibility of recession says that the retail use market will not change over the next two years that we're at this level driven mainly by supply constraints, but also recognizing the affordability challenges of what's likely to be the case with interest rates.
你知道吗，我一直在大声呼吁多元化投资。我认为你说得对。过去几年，所有进行投资的人都对二手市场进行了很重的投资，而现在他们正在进入一个非常具有挑战性的时期，可能你不会看到顶线增长，或者你甚至要努力才能实现。我们的基线预测是，假设没有经济衰退的可能性，零售用品市场未来两年不会有变化，这主要是由于供应约束所致，但同时也认识到利率可能会面临的负担挑战。
And when you say not change as in units will not grow, is that what you mean? Units will not grow. Yes. And what are you forecasting for annual unit sales used? The actual total number, we're in the 36 million total, which includes private party. Retail is slowly crawling its way up towards 20 million again, but it's one that we really don't think the next two years are going to create the opportunities for that.
当您说不会变化时，是指单位不会增长，是这个意思吗？是的。针对二手车的年度销售总量，您的预测是什么？实际的总数是3600万，包括私人买卖。零售逐渐恢复，但我们认为未来两年不太可能有机会实现20万销售额。
So I think the juicy question here is we spoke about supply levels, but what happens to prices over the next three to five years? Neuverse used. Yeah. So through the pandemic with the incredible run up and use vehicle prices that started first, and the reason for that is because the use market is actually the part of the market that is responsive to market conditions. And within the use market, it's the wholesale use market that actually is the best barometer for what supply and demand looks like.
我认为这里的关键问题是，虽然我们已经谈论了供应水平，但未来三到五年汽车价格会发生什么变化？Neuverse使用了。是的。在这场流行病期间，二手车价格出现了惊人的上涨，最先受到影响的是二手市场，原因在于二手市场是对市场情况最敏感的市场部分。在二手市场中，批发二手市场实际上是最好的供需指标。
So we had an incredible run up in use vehicle values that started in the second half of 2020, really reached its peak at the end of 2021. We gave some of that back last year. And over the course of that time, we basically had a scenario, especially at the end of 2021, that the use car price level was way out of alignment with the typical new vehicle price level.
我们在2020年下半年开始经历了一个令人难以置信的二手车价值上涨，真正达到顶峰是在2021年年底。去年我们有一些回调。在这段时间里，特别是在2021年年底，我们基本上出现了一种情况，即二手车价格水平与典型的新车价格水平严重不匹配。
But since that time, the relationship between the two have come much closer to balance. I would say we were very close to being within the natural sort of equilibrium, meaning the market normally corrects itself when you have periods of time that use vehicle values run up or new vehicle values run up because the consumer who is either challenged by affordability and has to switch to use now has an opportunity to go back into the new vehicle market and that reduces demand for use and causes the prices to sort of correct.
自那时起，这两者之间的关系更接近平衡。我认为我们已经非常接近自然平衡了，意味着当市场价值上涨的时间段持续时，市场通常会自我纠正，因为那些由于经济能力受挑战而不得不转向使用车辆的消费者现在有机会重新进入新车市场，这会降低对使用车辆的需求并导致价格趋于稳定。
So last year's decline in use retail, a decline of 10% by our metrics that happened was really part of the path of getting those two back in relation with one another. So we don't think that there's a big gap left that calls for a quote unquote price correction or further reduction in value.
去年零售业的使用量下降了10％，根据我们的指标来看，这实际上是实现两者之间关系的路径的一部分。因此，我们不认为还存在需要进行所谓的价格修正或进一步价值减少的巨大差距。
I think with the run up that we had in the first three months of the year, we had 12 weeks of wholesale prices going up to start the year. We probably are on a path that over the next three months we're going to lose all of those gains. But we are projecting by the end of the year, we're basically going to be back into a rhythm where depreciation is pretty normal if not slightly below normal simply because of the supply constraint in environment we're in.
我认为今年的前三个月，我们经历了一个价格上涨的起步阶段，12周的批发价格上涨之后，接下来的三个月可能会失去所有的收益。但我们预计到年底，由于我们所处的供应不足环境，我们基本上会回到一个正常甚至略低于正常的折旧节奏。
So we think vehicle values are going to be returning to a much more predictable path that's driven by normal time, mileage, usage that delivers depreciation. But if I put in 12% as normal, we probably are going to see depreciation that's closer to like 8% on average.
因此，我们认为车辆价值将会回归到一个更为可预见的轨迹，由常规的时间、里程数和使用情况决定，这将带来折旧。但是如果我把12%作为正常值，我们可能会看到平均折旧率更接近于8%。
Now younger vehicles, that's on used cars. Yeah, younger vehicles have actually appreciated more and so there and they're coming down a bit more because they're the ones that are especially impacted by suddenly more incentives being in the market on the new vehicle side and rental car companies not being as aggressive at buying, which is definitely been a factor that we've seen take place over the last couple of years. Yeah.
现在，年轻的车辆，指的是二手车。是的，年轻的车辆实际上已经升值了，因此它们正在下降，因为它们是受新车市场更多激励影响最大的车型，而租车公司对购买车辆不太积极，这绝对是过去几年我们看到的一个因素。
So pretty much, I mean, from here, you're anticipating that within the next couple of months we're going to give back all the gains from say Q1 or the first several months of the year. And from there, get back on this linear linear, which say a linear decline, predictable decline in used car values. Yes, absolutely.
大致上，我的意思是，从现在开始，你预期在接下来的几个月里，我们会退回Q1或年初几个月的所有收益。然后，我们会回到这个线性下降的趋势，也就是说，二手车价值会呈现出可预测的下降。是的，完全正确。
And so by the end of the year, our current forecast says the man I'm index is going to be up 2% year over year in December, which is pretty darn close to what a normal year over year path would be for the man I'm index.
因此，到今年年底，我们目前的预测显示，男性员工指数将比去年12月增长2％，这差不多就是男性员工指数正常的年度增长路径。
And why is that man I'm index doesn't measure depreciation. It measures the mix of what dealers are paying for inventory, which naturally has inflation as part of it because every month dealers are buying a younger mix of vehicles and they bought last last month. So over time, the man I'm index usually delivers a 2% gain year over year and we think we'll be close to that by the end of the year.
为什么我参考的那个指数不测量折旧？它测量的是经销商为库存支付的混合成分，其中自然包含通货膨胀，因为每个月经销商都在购买更年轻的车辆，而不是上个月购买的车辆。因此，随着时间的推移，该指数通常每年能够提供2％的收益，我们认为到年底时会接近这个水平。
So if you had to, again, to keep this very simple, right, you have to advise a family member on a car purchase right now, right? What would you tell them? New versus use now versus wait, least versus buy.
所以如果你必须的话，为了让事情变得简单，你现在必须告诉家人进行汽车购买的建议，对吧？你会告诉他们什么呢？新车与二手车的区别，现在购买还是等待，折扣最少或是直接购买？
I know it's very general and you know, depends on the car, the program, but like generally speaking, kind of where is your head at? So there's all kinds of questions to kind of get at what is the optimal kind of purchase point.
我知道这是非常笼统的，而且取决于汽车、计划等因素，但总体而言，你对哪个方面比较关注呢？因此，有许多问题可以帮助我们找到最佳购买点。
I think the use vehicle market has far more opportunities to it than the new vehicle market in the short term. I'm actually surprised to hear that. I'm really curious to hear why. As long as you're not looking for a minivan, the most affordable sedans out there, if you're in the market like for a luxury vehicle, you're going to see, you're going to see more buying opportunities.
在短期内，我认为二手车市场比新车市场有更多的机会。听到这个观点我感到有些惊讶，我非常好奇为什么会这样认为。只要你不寻找一辆面包车，二手车市场中最实惠的轿车比如豪华车，你会发现更多的购买机会。
But that's also true in the new market too. Interestingly, what's available, most available in the new market and most incentivized, is also delivering the biggest use vehicle price to clients. So you kind of have opportunities in both spaces. And if you're looking for a vehicle that doesn't fit that category, that's where you're kind of screwed or you need to wait.
但这一点在新市场上也同样如此。有趣的是，在新市场上最多可用和最具奖励的是那些为客户带来最大用途价值的车型。因此，你在两个空间中都有机会。如果你正在寻找不符合这个类别的车辆，那么你有点处于劣势，或者需要等待。
Because the condition, you're saying that if I'm looking, if let's just say, right, I'm going to use GPG as an example, they're the talker that's out today. If GPs are, you know, have all these incentives going for them on the new side, well, the later models will also be depreciating faster on the new side. So you're likely to get a better deal on either side of the spectrum because just the overall price is coming down. That's right.
因为这个情况，你的意思是如果我在寻找，比如说，我以GPG为例，他们是今天最热门的谈论者。如果GPs有所有这些新优惠，那么后来的型号在新的一面也会更快地贬值。因此，你很可能会在任何一边获得更好的交易，因为总体价格正在下降。没错。
And so then financing comes into the category and that's where it's much trickier. Because if you're dependent upon credit in this market right now, you're much more likely to get a better monthly payment and a better total financing costs over time by buying the new vehicle because you're more likely to find in some cases, a 0% interest rate or certainly something under 3% when the average new in so far in May has crossed 9% for the first time in 20 years.
因此，融资也属于这个范畴，但这是更加棘手的。因为如果你在当前市场上依赖信贷，购买新车你更有可能获得更好的月付款和更低的总融资成本，因为你更有可能找到零利率甚至低于3%的利率，而目前的平均新车贷款利率已经在5月首次超过9%，创20年来新高。
Insanity. So the fine anything. I say insanity because it's like the assets, the cars, I'm not come down. It would not be insanity if cars are like, you know, fell by, you know, $10,000 a piece, but it's insanity when the interest rates are this high and that this that collateral is hasn't moved. If anything, it's gone up. Yeah.
疯狂，一切都变得更好。我用“疯狂”这个词是因为它就像财产和汽车，没有下降。如果汽车价格掉了10,000美元，那就不算疯狂了。但是利率这么高，抵押品却没有变化，甚至还上升了，这才是疯狂。
So it's going to depend on what segment you're looking to buy and unfortunately for some segments, like the one you just transacted in, I think it's going to be one where it's going to take several years for it to be an environment where you can brag about the deal that you got. Yeah.
这将取决于你想购买哪个领域的商品，可是不幸的是，对于一些领域，比如你最近进行交易的那个领域，我想它会需要几年的时间才能成为一个你可以炫耀交易优惠的环境。是的。
I mean, I got to tell you like, I never thought I would have to use connections to buy a frickin' minivan like it's a, it was a weird experience. And the fact that I bought a new minivan for less than I would have used, right? That's another very weird phenomenon, but it's just the current state of the market and it's super competitive. I just, it's crazy.
我的意思是，我从来没有想过我要通过人际关系来购买像迷你面包车这样的东西，这是一个奇怪的经历。而且我买了一辆新的迷你面包车，实际上花费比二手车还少，这也是非常奇怪的现象，但这只是当前市场的状态，竞争非常激烈。我只能说这太疯狂了。
Yeah. So, all right. So Elon Musk, friend of the pod, he's shouted us out a couple times. Maybe he's listening right now. So hey, Elon, if you're listening, tell us your take on EVs. I know you've made over the past couple of years, there's been some investments and, you know, yeah.
是的。好的。埃隆•马斯克是我们的朋友，他已经几次提到过我们。也许他现在正在听呢，所以如果你在听，埃隆，请告诉我们你对电动汽车的看法。我知道你在过去几年里进行了一些投资，是的。
We have a mobility division that's very focused on electric vehicles. We bought a company two years ago called Spheres New Technology, which is a major player in second life recycling, working and we are diligently working on incorporating electric vehicle battery health into all of the valuation metrics that we do from Manheim, MMR to Kelly Blue Book values. So that is definitely a space and we are seeing momentum. You know, it's not just on the new side.
我们有一个非常专注于电动汽车的移动设备部门。两年前，我们收购了一家名为Spheres New Technology的公司，它是二次使用回收的主要参与者。我们正在努力将电动汽车电池健康状况纳入我们从Manheim、MMR到凯利蓝皮书价值等所有估值指标中。所以这绝对是一个领域，我们看到了动力。你知道，这不仅仅是在新方面。
We had our biggest quarter ever with electric vehicle sales at Manheim in the first quarter this year. New vehicle market is tight and very low, the shift, which has taken years to really come to fruition is finally taking place and it's becoming meaningful to more of dealers in the broader community and the retail market. So we think this is only the beginning of what we're going to see in that space.
今年第一季度，曼恒汽车销售的电动汽车创下了有史以来最高的记录。新车市场供应不足，而这个变革经过多年才真正开始发挥作用，现在终于到来，并且越来越受到更广泛社区和零售市场的经销商的重视。因此，我们认为这只是我们在这个领域所看到的开始。
So a lot of what my team is going to be focused on is, you know, the things that you've come accustomed to seeing us report on. Think of us as having effectively a parallel addition of the same details covering the electrified space and also covering, well, how are we seeing EVs compare to ice vehicles at how we're seeing. Yeah, like from evaluation, depreciation curves, like how are you seeing them compare?
所以，我们的团队将主要关注的是你们习惯看到我们报道的那些内容。可以认为我们在电气化领域和比较电动汽车与传统燃油车方面，同时添加了相同细节的平行内容。比如从评估、折旧曲线等方面，我们如何看待它们之间的比较。
I mean, generally, like the first 12 weeks of this year, almost all vehicles appreciate them. And over time, we've really seen electric vehicles start to perform better in terms of use vehicle value retention. The yardstick that is traditionally measured is what is the wholesale price relative to the MSRP that's that's retention in in the vehicle world. And especially as Elon's vehicles have slowly become the norm in the industry, electric vehicle value retention is is head and shoulders stronger today than it was five years ago.
我的意思是，一般来说，今年前12周几乎所有的车辆都有升值趋势。随着时间的推移，我们真正看到电动车在使用车辆价值保留方面表现得越来越好。传统上用来衡量的标准是批发价格与建议零售价（MSRP）之间的比率，这是车辆领域的保留率。尤其是随着埃隆的车辆逐渐成为产业的常态，电动车的保值率今天比5年前要强得多。
And why is that why is the price for attention stronger? There's multiple reasons for that. But I would say the electric vehicles that were sold pre Tesla were very heavy and everything wrong with which causes vehicles to not hold their value well, meaning they were heavily leased, they were heavily sold into fleets, they were way overrepresented at at manheim. So their vehicle value retention was awful, a flat out awful. So what you know, at three years before the pandemic, a typical use vehicle would be worth usually about 50 to 60% of what its original sticker was. We had electric vehicles when I started in in 2017 that were worth 10% of what their original sticker was. And that does not help consumer confidence in the vehicle experience.
为什么关注度的价格更高呢？这有多种原因。但我认为，在特斯拉之前销售的电动汽车非常沉重，而且有诸多问题，导致车辆保值能力差，这意味着它们被大量租赁，大量用于车队，而且在曼海姆市场上的代表性远远超过了它们的价值。因此，它们的车辆价值不能得到良好的保持，可以说是糟糕透了。因此，在疫情爆发前的三年中，一个典型的二手车通常只能保留其原始标价的50%到60%左右。而在我2017年开始工作时，我们发现有些电动汽车只剩下原始标价的10%。这并不有利于消费者对车辆体验的信心。
Or the other confidence, frankly. I mean, no one wants to be stuck holding a hot potato, which is, you know, that was the case partially at the beginning of this year, right? When when Tesla began or price cuts, you know, some dealers were like, fuck, like my ass, it just fell like $10,000, it was it was scary. And we we are seeing a little bit of that. If Elon's listening, the consequences of cutting prices on the new side does have consequences. But yeah, but I do understand also, like I did, I treated about this as well.
或者另一方面，老实说，没有人想被卡在持有一个烫手山芋的境地，这也是在今年年初出现的情况之一。当特斯拉开始削价时，一些经销商就像“妈呀，我的屁股，它直接掉了$10,000，非常吓人”。我们正在看到这种情况的一点点迹象。如果埃隆在听，削减新车价格确实会有后果。但我也理解，我也发了一条推文表达这个观点。
Like I think short term, there's going to be volatility. And I do think long term, it's the right move. If you, if truly if your goal is to increase affordability and adoption, at some point, you're going to have to, you know, take the medicine and it's going to impact anyone else that has that, you know, vehicle under balance sheet. So, and we've definitely seen interest, we've got the strongest interest we've ever seen in electric vehicles. And that seems to be cascading into the use vehicle market by what measure though? When you say that, by what measure?
我认为短期内会有波动，但长期来看这是正确的决定，如果你的目标是提高可承受性和普及率，那么你必须在某个时刻接受这种影响，而这会影响到那些拥有该车辆平衡表的人。我们确实看到了对电动汽车的兴趣，这似乎影响了二手车市场，请问您是通过什么样的指标来衡量影响的？
By consumer both stated, like on surveys, are you interested in buying or are you considering an electric vehicle on your next purchase? We've gone in majority interesting in one that choice. And then in what we observe on Kelly Bluebook, it's a great platform to really see what are consumers really looking at? What are they comparing as they're narrowing down their choices? Electric vehicles are definitely part of it. In fact, the interest is way larger than the reality. And that's where affordability as you were pointing out comes into play.
消费者既可以在调查中表示感兴趣，也可以在下次购买时考虑购买电动车？大多数人对这个选择非常感兴趣。我们观察到凯利蓝皮书，这是一个很好的平台来了解消费者真正关注的是什么？他们在缩小选择范围时比较什么？电动车绝对是其中的一部分。事实上，兴趣远远大于现实。这就是你所指出的价格实惠很重要的地方。
And would you say there's like a geographic concentration in like the coastal cities, or is it like more evenly dispersed? Right? Like I'm thinking like, are we talking about like New York, LA, you know, Texas or are we talking about like other states as well, you know, Midwest or whereabouts? So there's no question. Electric vehicle adoption has been first a California thing. Then a west coast thing versus the rest of the country. And then generally an urban phenomenon, other areas. We are seeing interest grow across the board. But it's still a reality that you're most likely to see a consumer in an urban setting where they have access to chargers and a world where electric vehicles are. Yeah. You're more likely to have a friend that's driving one, you know, be where we're really going to see more sales take place.
你会说电动汽车在沿海城市这片地区有集中现象吗？还是说更平均地分布？我在想，这是指像纽约、洛杉矶、德克萨斯这些地方，还是像中西部之类的其他州？毫无疑问，电动车的采用首先是加州的事情。然后是整个西海岸相对于全国其他地区的事情。接着，一般是城市现象，其他地区反应相对较弱。我们看到兴趣正在全面提升。但是现实依然存在：在城市环境中，消费者更有可能看到充电设备和电动汽车的世界。是的。你更有可能有开电动车的朋友，你知道我们真正在看到更多的销售。
Dude, this was super insightful. I think people will love the insight. I think one thing worth mentioning here is our friend John Smoke is a man of many talents. He also DJs. And so I followed that fascinating. I followed your post, your blogs, and we put out soundtracks. And by the way, DJ Sol, David Solomon has some competition. DJs and economics at finance sector. Yeah. Give us some soundtracks to describe the current state of the economy. This would be fun.
这真是太有见地了，我想人们会很喜欢这些见解。我认为有一个值得一提的事情，就是我们的朋友约翰·斯莫克是一个有很多才能的人。他还可以担任DJ。我对此非常感兴趣。我关注了你的帖子、博客，并且我们制作了一些配乐。顺便说一下，DJ Sol（大卫·所罗门）现在又有竞争了。在金融领域担任DJ，这很有趣。是的，给我们播放一些配乐来描述当前经济形势，这将非常有趣。
Well, every quarter, I put together at least one playlist that I think captures the economy and the auto market themes. And I went all hip hop for the first quarter. And I still like top song selection from when I was in high school. It's tricky by run DMC because when you ask me, what are things going to look like? It's so tricky to forecast. But my magnus opus for playlists, I put out right before last week's fed meeting because I was hoping the fed would actually listen and keep rates unchanged. I was hoping that they would channel the Beatles, let it be. But instead instead they were pushing higher and higher. So now we find ourselves in a scenario of I don't know if we're going to necessarily see the bad moon rising by CCR.
每个季度，我都会编制至少一份我认为能捕捉到经济和汽车市场主题的播放列表。在第一季度，我选择了全是嘻哈音乐。我仍然很喜欢我在高中时听的那些热门歌曲。其中 "It's tricky" 是由 Run DMC 制作的，因为当你问我，未来会是什么样子？预测起来真的很棘手。但是在上周联邦储备会议之前，我发表了我最伟大的播放列表，因为我希望联邦储备会实际倾听并保持利率不变。我希望他们能像披头士一样，放手不管。但是相反，他们一直在向上推进。所以现在我们发现自己处于一种情况，我不知道我们是否会看到 CCR 的 "Bad Moon Rising"。
But I'm actually really concerned that the next couple of months are going to be pretty telling in terms of pushing us into a recession, especially when you add other risks like in the banking sector and what's happening with the debt ceiling that's likely to take place over the next couple of years. And at the end of the day, I'm worried about credit. And to me, credit, the song out of the 24 songs that I put up for that is most kind of central to why I'm worried about the indirect consequences of what the fed is doing is ain't no sunshine because there ain't no sunshine when credit is gone. And that's definitely an old school. But just keep on me at smoke on cars on Twitter and I'll publish every playlist that I do.
我真的很担心接下来的几个月将会表明我们正在进入衰退，特别是当你加上银行业和债务上限的其他风险时，这些风险可能会在未来几年发生。最终，我担心的是信用问题。对我而言，信用是我担心联邦政府所做间接后果的中心因素。我为这个问题挑选的歌曲是24首歌曲中最重要的一首，叫做《没有阳光》，因为如果信用消失了，就没有阳光了。这显然是老派的，但你可以在Twitter上关注我并发布我所做的每个播放列表。
I got to admit, when we initially connected, I think your social media team commented on one of my posts and I DM them and blah, blah, blah. But I was, look, I'll admit it, I came out guns blazing into the Twitter verse. I didn't really have like a plan. I was sort of like, you know, this social media stuff. And you know, there's no doubt about it, like, you know, the last six to 12 months, I've really kind of tightened up the game and really put like, you know, kind of honing on my niche. But I was like, this would be fun. And I hope John doesn't, didn't bother him. My inaccuracies early on before I really posted like the fine details to that, I learned how this game works.
我得承认，当我们开始联系时，我觉得你们的社交媒体团队在我发的一篇文章下评论，然后我私信他们，一通废话。但我得说，当时我像是开火了一样冲进了Twitter世界。我没有像个计划，只是感觉这社交媒体挺好玩。过去6到12个月，我真的提高了自己的游戏水平，集中精力把自己的方向确定下来。但在这之前，我可能犯了不少错误，不过我了解了这个游戏的规则。
So I'm just thrilled that we could do this. And like I said, it would be great to do this, you know, on a recurring basis. You know, we can really continue having industry updates and as you started saying like work in, work in, you know, the audience learn more about you about your work and everything else. Well, you got, you got me on Twitter at Smoke on Cars, but really my team and I published something almost every day on the insight section of Cox Automotive's website, which is Cox Autoink.com. And just for the look for the market insights and outlook and you will find a Smoke on Cars section there. It's all of my stuff, but basically all of the metrics and information my team is publishing, which I know you're a fan of. I'm very, very much so.
我非常高兴我们能够这样做。正如我所说，定期进行这样的行业更新会很棒。我们可以继续努力，让观众更多了解你的工作和其他方面。你可以在Twitter上找到我，账号为Smoke on Cars，但实际上，我和我的团队几乎每天都在Cox Automotive网站的Insight部分发布内容，该网站的网址是Cox Autoink.com。只要寻找市场洞察和展望，你就会找到Smoke on Cars的专栏。这是我的所有文章，但实际上是我和我的团队发布的所有指标和信息，而这恰好是你所喜欢的。
And so if you see me post tweets, I say, you know, via our source, Cox Auto, you know where it comes from. Absolutely.
因此，如果你看到我发推文，我会说，你知道的，通过我们的消息来源，Cox Auto，你知道它来自哪里。绝对。
John Smoke, thanks so much. This was awesome. Wealth of knowledge. Had a great time. Thank you.
约翰·斯莫克，非常感谢您。这太棒了。知识财富。过得很愉快。谢谢。
Hope you enjoyed that episode. Please give the podcast a rating, consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about.
希望您喜欢这一集。请给这个播客评分，考虑订阅此节目，并检查节目说明中我们谈论的链接。
Thanks for tuning in. See you guys next time.
感谢收听。下次再见。