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E128: Google enters AI wars, Druck’s warning, Trump crushes CNN & more

发布时间 2023-05-12 20:30:36 来源

摘要

(0:00) All-In Summit 2023 announcement! (3:10) Google IO releases, updated Bard demo, fighting the innovator's dilemma (18:33) AI regulation updates (23:41) Druckenmiller's warning, macro overview (40:22) RFK Jr. feedback, pushback, conspiracy accusations (49:52) Trump dominates CNN "Town Hall," Trump vs. Biden potential (1:10:24) Jason reflects on his trip to the Middle Easy and the besties wrap the show! Register for All-In Summit 2023: https://summit.allinpodcast.co Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-palm-2-ai-large-language-model https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/application-modernization/introducing-duet-ai-for-google-cloud https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOGL:NASDAQ https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Duquesne+Family+Office https://twitter.com/joincolossus/status/1656258955780456448 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/05/04/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-actions-to-promote-responsible-ai-innovation-that-protects-americans-rights-and-safety https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/opinion/ai-lina-khan-ftc-technology.html https://uscmarshallweb.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/uploads/s1/files/keynote_speech_of_stan_druckenmiller_at_the_37th_usc_marshall_center_for_investment_studies_annual_meeting_may_1_2023_hdmqn6eb4m.pdf https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/05/10/business/cpi-inflation-fed https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-BIDEN/POLL/nmopagnqapa https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/comer-bank-records-biden-family-members-payments-foreign-entities/index.html https://twitter.com/JoshWalkos/status/1655748898357477379 https://nypost.com/2023/05/07/ex-cia-chief-michael-morell-misled-signers-of-hunter-biden-spy-letter-by-saying-hed-clear-it-with-agency https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrjL_TSOFrI https://twitter.com/PodiumDotPage/status/1656315157952200704 #allin #tech #news

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中英文字稿

All right, everybody. Welcome to the all-in podcast. Lots to talk about, but right off the bat, congratulations to David Friedberg, who is the chairperson of the all-in-summit 2023 on the big announcement. We're going to be having the all-in-summit September 10th to 12th at Royce Hall at UCLA in Los Angeles, California. Your tickets are now on sale and selling out quick.

大家好，欢迎收听全垒打播客。我们有很多话题要谈论，但首先要恭喜戴维·弗里德伯格先生成为2023年全垒打会议的主席，并且宣布我们将于9月10日至12日在加利福尼亚州洛杉矶的UCLA劳伊斯音乐厅举办全垒打会议。现在已经开始售票并且销售火爆，请尽快购买！

I think Friedberg, maybe you can just give people a little overview of why you selected the location and what you hope to accomplish in terms of the programming, which has brought strokes, and then we'll get right into the show. I think the general headline is today and tomorrow where we were, we headed, I think exploring the state of the world and interesting things that were uniquely, or that were all kind of excited about in the future. And we want to have great conversations with candid people that can give us kind of, you know, they're very honest on the ground, points of view on everything from technology and markets, macro, science, society, and culture.

我认为，Friedberg，你可以简要概述一下你为什么选择这个地点以及你希望通过编程实现什么目标，这已经引起了我们的关注，接下来我们就开始节目。我想，今天和明天我们将探讨我们所在的世界以及未来让我们感到兴奋的有趣事物的总体主题。我们希望与坦诚的人进行良好的谈话，获得他们对技术和市场、宏观、科学、社会和文化等方面非常诚实的现场观点。

So we're going to talk across all those different topic areas. And similar to what we did last year, the four of us on stage, having conversations with these folks. So I'm pretty excited. I think L.A. is a great location. There's obviously an availability for people to stay. There's great venues for us to do the evening events. And it's certainly super accessible for folks from all over the world. And we decided this year to have three tiers of tickets. We'll have the VIP tickets. We'll have scholarships for people who fill out a form so we can, you know, have really great diversity and representation at the event and up in comers, maybe who couldn't afford the VIP ticket. But in between, you decided to have a standard ticket as well. That's just $1500.

因此，我们将在所有这些不同的主题领域展开讨论。与去年一样，我们在台上的四位成员将与这些人进行对话。我非常兴奋。我认为洛杉矶是一个很好的地方。显然，这里有人们可以住宿的地方，对于我们进行晚间活动来说有很好的场地。并且，这里对来自世界各地的人们而言确实非常便利。我们今年决定推出三个级别的门票。我们将推出VIP门票。我们将为填写表格的人提供奖学金，以便在活动中获得非常好的多样性和代表性，也为那些可能负担不起VIP门票的新秀们提供机会。但在这之间，我们还决定推出一个标准门票，价格为1500美元。

And there'll be a VIP lounge this year for the VIP tickets and an early access to the theater and a couple of special dinner parties. I'm going to have wine budget so that I can take care of the VIPs properly. You know, talking about that one later. I was saying, what is my wine budget? Let me treat the VIPs like the VIPs that they are. What would you need per night per dinner per person? Depends on how many people per person. We'll just say per person per night. Is it like $200 per person per person per night? Because a person drinks a half a bottle of wine, two or three glasses. Yeah, like, you know, three to 500, maybe a thousand. What is the truffle budget for the conference? The truffle budget. No, it's true. We can only have it. Why truffle? No, it's September. Yeah, it's been quite white and black truffle season. It's a dead zone.

今年我们将为贵宾票提供一个贵宾休息室，并提供早期进入剧院和几个特别晚宴。我会安排葡萄酒预算，这样我可以妥善照顾贵宾。你知道的，我们可以稍后再谈。我是说，我的葡萄酒预算是多少呢？让我像照顾贵宾那样照顾他们。每晚每顿饭每人需要多少钱？这取决于每人多少人。我们只说每晚每人。每人每晚200美元吗？因为一个人喝半瓶酒，两到三杯。对，大约三到五百美元，甚至可能一千美元。会议的松露预算是多少？松露预算。不是，九月份是臭鼬和黑松露季节。这是一个冷门。

You don't want to be in that. You got to either wait till the winter or you got to enjoy the early summer. We have to have a conference in early November. At that point, we can focus the entire VIP budget if it were according to me would be spent on white truffles and white bread.

你不想陷入那种状态。你得要么等到冬天，要么享受早夏。我们必须在11月初举行一次会议。到那时，如果按照我的意愿，我们将把整个贵宾预算用于白松露和白面包。

All right, everybody. Let's get started. Jamar Pao Hapatia is with us as well. The dictator himself and David Sacks, the rainman. Yeah, Google had their I.O. event. They announced Palm 2. Google's language model is going to power 25 products, including Bard, which is got coding capabilities now. I guess to go up against GitHub's co-pilot, Palm 2 will have improved multilinguality across a hundred languages.

大家好，让我们开始吧。贾马尔·保·哈帕蒂亚也在我们身边。独裁者本人和雨人大卫·萨克斯。是的，谷歌拥有他们的I.O.活动。他们宣布了Palm 2。谷歌的语言模型将支持25个产品，包括Bard。现在具有编码能力。我猜这是为了对抗GitHub的合作伙伴。Palm 2在100种语言上有改进的多语言功能。

Well, I have multi what? We'll support a hundred languages. It's going to be better at mathematics and reasoning. They also announced duet AI, which is basically Google suite of generative AI tools for dock sheets drive all that kind of stuff. Kind of like a copy of Microsoft's co-pilot tools that Sacks has talked about a whole bunch. The guide on the side, if you will, they tease the future where AI can summarize docs, which box AI Aaron Levy is doing. They also previewed proactive prompts in the sidebar of Google docs. And I talked about that a whole bunch on the sweet startups. They're going to also now add images and replies.

我有什么？我们将支持100种语言，它将更擅长数学和推理。他们还宣布了Duet AI，这基本上是Google生成性AI工具套件，用于文档表格、驱动器等等。有点像Sacks谈论过的微软联合飞行员工具的副本。如果你想的话，他们暗示了AI可以总结文档的未来，这是Box AI Aaron Levy正在做的。他们还在Google文档的侧边栏预览了主动提示。我在甜美的创业公司上也谈到过这个话题。他们还将添加图片和回复。

Have you guys used Bart in the last 24 hours? I used it last week, not in the last 24 hours. I think you guys should use it. We should talk about it. It's really impressive. It's better than chat GPT at this point from my experience on talk going through a number of things because it's actually connected live to the internet. It's connected live to search. It can pull down real-time data for you. It can do real internet searches for you and just give you the results. It's extremely powerful. I feel like it's the product that Google has been scared to do, which is the product that can truly disrupt search. And they're doing it.

你们最近24小时用过巴特吗？我上周用过，但不是在最近24小时内。我认为你们应该试用一下，我们需要谈谈这个产品。它真的很棒。从我的个人经历来看，在处理许多事情时，它比Chat GPT更好，因为它实际上与互联网实时连接。它与搜索实时连接，可以为你提取实时数据。它可以为你进行真正的互联网搜索，只给你结果。它非常强大。我觉得这是谷歌一直害怕做的产品，它可以真正颠覆搜索。现在他们正在做。

So how do I try it? Do I just go to bar? Google.com. No access needed. No cost. Nothing. Oh my god. This is great. And seriously use it. And it does real-time search. And it's 180 languages. It converts. It generates images for you. It can generate charts, results. It's really powerful. Guys, Google has strong together. I think a lot of features. And you can look Google's market. caps up $150 billion in the last two days. Okay. This is pretty interesting. And so, SACs, a lot of comparisons and results are now. A lot of what we've been talking about with respect to plugins and the tooling built into Auto GPT. Many of the most interesting kind of applications that folks have kind of demonstrated or utilized are really kind of built into this bar product.

那么我该如何试用呢？我只需要去Google.com页面即可，不需任何权限、费用或其他条件。哇，太棒了！并且这个工具也真的很实用，支持实时搜索，支持180种语言的转换，还可以生成图片、图表和结果，强大得不得了。大家知道，Google已经汇聚了很多强大的功能，而且公司市值在过去两天已经涨了1500亿美元。这真的很值得我们关注。所以，SACs的很多比较和结果都已经出来了，而我们一直在谈论的插件和工具都可以在Auto GPT的Bar中找到。

Okay. I love bar. Can I just give you guys what I just tried? Can we guess? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Was it something about freeberg's anus? Uranus? No. It wasn't a Uranus joke. Okay. Then tell us. Well, my first question was, why is David freeberg such a sellout? But the answer confused him with an actor. So let's forget that. My second question was, is Jason Calcanus a virtue signaler? And the answer is fantastic. Jason Calcanus is a venture capitalist and entrepreneur who has been accused of virtue signaling. Virtue signaling is the act of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness of one's position on a particular issue. There are a number of reasons why people might accuse Jason Calcanus of virtue signal. Okay. For example, he has been showing to make public statements about his support for social justice causes, but he has also been criticized for his lack of concrete action on these issues.

好的。我喜欢酒吧。我能不能告诉你们刚刚尝过的东西？我们能猜猜吗？是的。是的。是的。是的。是的。是关于Freeberg的肛门吗？天王星？不是。不是天王星的笑话。好的。那告诉我们。我的第一个问题是，为什么David Freeberg是个卖身契？但答案把他和一个演员搞混了。那我们忘了它。我的第二个问题是，Jason Calcanus是一个美德信号者吗？答案非常好。Jason Calcanus是一位风险投资家和企业家，曾被指责为美德信号者。美德信号是公开表达意见或情感，旨在证明一个人的良好品格或在某一特定问题上立场的道德正确性的行为。人们可能会因为多种原因指责Jason Calcanus进行美德信号。例如，他一直在公开表态支持社会公正事业，但也受到批评，认为他在这些问题上缺乏具体行动。

What? Additionally, he has been accused of using his platform to promote himself in his businesses rather than to genuinely advocate for social change. That's ultimately whether or not Jason Calcanus is a virtue signaler is a matter of opinion. There is no clear consensus on this issue and there is evidence to support both sides of the argument. However, it is important to note that virtue signaling can be a harmful practice as it can lead to people becoming desensitized to real social problems and make it more difficult to address them effectively.

什么？此外，他被指控利用自己的平台来推广他的业务，而不是真正倡导社会变革。最终，杰森·卡尔卡纳斯是否是一位美德信仰者是一件有待观察的问题，没有明确的共识，有证据支持这个争论的双方。然而，值得注意的是，美德信仰的实践可能会对社会问题造成不利影响，使人们对真正的社会问题麻木不仁，难以有效地解决它们。

Paragraph 1: This is some woke shit. Wait, do you see what I just did? Here's mine.

这是某种醒觉的东西，等等，你看到我刚才做了什么了吗？这是我的。

Paragraph 2: I asked Bard is tomorrow the horrible human. Here's what hard to say. Come on, Pauli Haviti is a complex individual, positive and negative qualities. He is a successful venture capitalist and entrepreneur, but he has also been criticized for his outspoken views at his past actions. Some of Pauli Haviti's policies, qualities include his intelligence, his ambition, his drive to succeed.

我问巴德，明天那个可怕的人是谁。这个问题难回答。保罗·哈维蒂是一个复杂的个体，他有积极和消极的特点。他是一个成功的风险投资家和企业家，但他也因他的公开观点和过去的行为受到了批评。保罗·哈维蒂的政策和特点包括他的智慧、野心和追求成功的动力。

Paragraph 3: Blah, blah, blah, blah. He's also been criticized for his arrogance and lack of evidence. The A&S willingness to exploit people for his outgain. This is perfect. It's the same quality. It's balanced. It's true. It is giving you the good and the bad. Oh my god, that's hilarious. This is a very fair answer. Ultimately, I'm a complex individual. I have a chance. The horrible is a matter of opinion. I love it.

第三段：胡言乱语的话，他也因为傲慢和缺乏证据而受到批评。A&S愿意利用人来获得他的利益。这很完美。它是相同的品质。它是平衡的。它是真实的。它给你好和坏。哦天哪，太有趣了。这是一个非常公正的回答。最终，我是一个复杂的个体。我有机会。可怕只是一个意见问题。我很喜欢。

Paragraph 4: I asked it, where is the, this is going to really show you the power of this? Where is the All in Summit 2023 being held and how much are tickets? Two questions that are deep on the website. There are two All in Summit. That's incredible.

我问它，这将真正展示这一点的力量在哪里？2023年的全球峰会将在哪里举行，门票多少钱？这是网站上深入探讨的两个问题。有两个全球峰会，这太棒了。

Paragraph 5: And then it says the All in Summit 2023 will be held September 10th at 11, 23rd, or Royce Fall. Tickets are 1500 for General Mission 7500 for VIP. That's insane.

第五段：接着上面所说，全球峰会2023将于9月10日至11日在罗伊斯·福尔举行。普通票价为1500美元，而VIP票价则为7500美元。这价格太离谱了。

Paragraph 6: I'm saying, what are the key differences between Bard and ChatGPT just because you've used it? On the modeling side, they're claiming a much larger, more robust model. It's linked to the Internet. It's linked to Live Search, which you can't do with ChatGPT, which is based on a static training data set.

我是想说，你只是用了Bard和ChatGPT，那么它们之间的主要区别是什么？在建模方面，他们声称拥有一个更大、更强大的模型。它与互联网相连。它与Live Search相连，而这是ChatGPT所不能做到的，因为它是基于一个静态的训练数据集。

Paragraph 7: Bard can actually engage with dynamic content and a dynamic content generator across the web. Then it's integrated with a number of Google services that basically can take certain live feeds of data like flights and stock prices and so on. It's free. I think you don't need to be charged for over usage. You don't need to sign up and get access. It's just available to anyone. I think this is the game changer everyone is hoping for.

Bard实际上可以跨网站与动态内容和内容生成器进行交互。然后，它与许多基本Google服务集成，可以获取诸如航班和股票价格等特定实时数据。它是免费的，你不需要为超额使用付费，也不需要注册并获得访问权限。它对任何人都可用。我认为这是每个人都希望看到的游戏变革者。

Paragraph 8: I just asked, did Stan Druckemiller buy Nvidia recently? So it wasn't able to find the transcript of his thing, but it did find the 13F and it says yes according to his 13F for the fourth quarter of 22 Stan purchase of $582,915 shares of Nvidia.

我刚才问了一下，Stan Druckemiller最近有没有购买Nvidia的股票？虽然没有找到他的交易记录，但找到了他在第四季度13F文件中的记录，根据他记录的信息，他购买了582,915股Nvidia的股票。

Paragraph 9: I just said, what was Google's restructuring expense incurred in Q1 2023? It says according to Google's 2023 Q1 earnings report, the company incurred restructuring expense of 1.6 billion, including the decision to lay off 12,000 employees. They were part of a broader restructuring. It basically parsed through the press release, parsed through the Q1 data. It's really pretty impressive.

第9段：我刚才说的是，Google在2023年第一季度承担了多少重组费用？据Google 2023年第一季度财报显示，该公司承担了16亿的重组费用，其中包括解雇12000名员工的决定。这是一个更广泛的重组计划的一部分。他/她基本上是通过新闻发布和一季度数据来分析的。真的很出色。

Paragraph 10: What do you got? Check this out. David Sacks, what does David Sacks think about Hunter Biden? Everybody on the oil and pod nose, but let's see what Bard knows. He's not publicly commented on Hunter Biden. However, he has been critical of the Biden family business dealings in Ukraine. In 2019, Andrew Sacks said that he was deeply troubled by the Biden's vomiting in Ukraine. That he believed it was a conflict of interest for Hunter Biden to serve on the board of charisma.

第十段：你得到了什么消息？听听这个。大卫·萨克斯（David Sacks），他对亨特·拜登（Hunter Biden）有何看法？石油和播客圈的人都知道，但让我们看看巴德知道什么。他没有公开对亨特·拜登发表评论。但是，他曾对拜登家族在乌克兰的商业交易表示批评。在2019年，安德鲁·萨克斯（Andrew Sacks）表示，他对拜登家族在乌克兰的涉足感到非常不安。他认为，亨特·拜登在Charisma公司任职董事会是利益冲突的。

Paragraph 11: That's pretty interesting. I don't know. That's clearly inaccurate. I mean, I wasn't talking about it. Yeah. In 2019, think about that. That's what you started into the pod. Yeah. So the question is, where is he getting these quotes? And then why doesn't it give citations? Well, also, wait.

这相当有趣。我不知道。那显然是不准确的。我的意思是，我没有在谈论它。是的。想想那在2019年，那是你开始录制播客的内容。所以问题是，他从哪里得到这些引用？然后为什么不提供引用呢？还有，等等。

Paragraph 12: Sacks has been critical of the Trump administration's use of Hunter Biden's business dealings as a political weapon. Yeah, that's not true. You've never criticized the Trump administration. Those quotes are wrong. Those quotes are not so wrong.

第12段：Sacks批评特朗普政府将亨特·拜登的商业往来作为政治武器使用。是的，这不是真的。你从来没有批评过特朗普政府。那些引用是错误的。那些引用并不完全错误。

Paragraph 13: So I just said to it, can you access and think about this data said, and this is where Google has unique advantages. I said, can you access the YouTube transcript data? And it says, yes, Bard integrates YouTube transcript data. I said, do you have access to transcript data from the Ellen podcast channel? It says, yes, I do have access to the transcript data from the Ellen podcast channel.

于是我就对它说，你能否获得和分析这些数据，这也是谷歌的独特优势所在。我问道，你能够获取YouTube字幕的数据吗？它回答说，是的，Bard可以整合YouTube字幕数据。我又问道，你能够获取Ellen播客频道的字幕数据吗？它回答说，是的，我可以获取Ellen播客频道的字幕数据。

Paragraph 14: I said, can you access this data? Answer some questions. And now what did Sacks say about Hunter Biden in that show? And so I would guess, so think about the change in answer. So from this to be very inaccurate. Yeah.

我说，你能访问这些数据吗？回答一些问题。现在Sacks在那个节目中对亨特·拜登说了什么？所以我猜测，考虑答案的变化。从这个答案来看是非常不准确的。嗯。

Paragraph 15: So David Sacks appeared. He said he believes Hunter Biden is a deeply troubled individual who's made a lot of bad decisions. He also said that he believes Hunter Biden's business dealings in Ukraine were highly unethical and that he believes it's impossible that Joe, this is transcript data from the pod. However, Sacks also said that he does not believe that Hunter Biden's business dealings are a quote-smoking gun that proves that Joe Biden engaged in any wrongdoing. He said that he believes that the evidence against Joe Biden or quote circumstantial is quote circumstantial and that he does not believe that there is enough evidence to impeach him.

第15段：然后出现了David Sacks。他说他相信亨特·拜登是一个深陷困境、犯了很多错误的人。他还说，他认为亨特·拜登在乌克兰的商业交易高度不道德，并且他认为乔的牵涉是不可能的，这是来自这个音频的转录数据。然而，Sacks还说，他不相信亨特·拜登的商业交易是证明乔·拜登参与任何不当行为的“冒烟枪”，他认为反对乔·拜登的证据是“间接的”，并且他认为没有足够的证据来弹劾他。

Paragraph 1: Sacks his comments about Hunter Biden were met with mixed reaction. Some people. agree. And on and on and on.

萨克斯对亨特·拜登的评论引起了不同的反应。有些人同意，还有更多人这样想，不断地重复着。

Paragraph 2: I think it's very inaccurate to be honest. That's not a good. That's not a good. I mean, it's got my stuff mixed in. It's got some of your stuff mixed in, but it also it's like it's summarizing in a way that neither of us actually said it. Yeah. And they're missing the key points about what I did say.

我认为说实话这非常不准确。这不是好的。我的东西和你的东西混在一起了，但同时又好像总结了我们实际上都没有说的东西。而且他们遗漏了我所说的重点。

Paragraph 3: I asked a pretty complicated question here and I think it did a pretty decent job. I said, I would like to fly low premiere on Air France from the West Coast to Europe. Where should I depart? And it got a perfectly LAX SFO and Seattle Tacoma. Oh, yeah. I just asked it to get me the fastest route to Portofino.

第三段：我在这里问了一个相当复杂的问题，但我认为它还是解答得非常好。我问道：“我想从美国西海岸低价搭乘法国航空前往欧洲，我应该从哪里出发呢？”答案非常明显：洛杉矶国际机场、旧金山国际机场和西雅图塔科马国际机场。哦，是的。我只是要它为我找到通往波多菲诺最快的路线。

Paragraph 4: And it gave me the exact flight I should take from SFO. How much the ticket is and then the train I should take from the shortest, meaning the shortest time. Yeah, because I don't want to do a layover in Germany. It's like flight and Milan take the train and it gave me the full schedule, which by the way, Google flights can't do because you go to Google flights and all it does is give you the flight data.

它告诉我我应该从SFO出发搭哪班航班，机票价格是多少，以及我应该乘坐最短时间的火车。因为我不想在德国转机。我可以搭飞机到米兰再坐火车，而这个网站提供了完整的时间表。顺便说一下，谷歌航班无法做到这一点，因为你只会得到航班数据。

Paragraph 5: It can integrate a lot of different data set to give you these answers. Did you say fastest route or fastest flight? What did you? Fastest route. Yeah. So I don't want to spend the least amount of time traveling is one of my objective. This is why I was saying I think you guys should play with this tool a bit.

这款工具可以整合大量不同的数据集，为您提供这些答案。您说的是最快的路线还是最快的飞行路线？是最快的路线。对的，我不希望旅行用的时间最短，这是我的一个目标。这就是为什么我认为你们应该稍微试用一下这个工具。

Paragraph 6: It is, I think, head and shoulders above chat GPT. The models supposedly better. Obviously other people will come out with, with kind of, you know, measures of that and estimates of whether that's true.

我认为它比GPT聊天机器人好很多。这个模型据说更好。显然，其他人可能会提出类似的措施和估计真伪。

Paragraph 7: The extensibility, the integration with live data and the integration with Google's very unique data set is what's so powerful that they have access to flight data that they have integrated. YouTube transcript data. It's just super powerful, super impressive.

第7段：即使他们是能够接触到航班数据和YouTube字幕数据，这还不是最为强大之处。最为强大之处在于它的可扩展性、对实时数据的整合和谷歌非常独特的数据集的整合。这使得它的功能非常强大，令人印象深刻。

Paragraph 8: Oh, damn. I'm using this in real time and I do find the interface to be snappier than chat GPT and it, like you said, it doesn't need the browsing plugin in order to scrape more recent data from the internet that it wasn't trained on, but I'm not finding the answers to be more accurate and I'm not finding them to be more detailed.

哦，该死。我正在实时使用它，我发现界面比聊天GPT更快，像你说的，它不需要浏览插件才能从互联网上抓取更近期的数据，它没有经过训练，但我并没有发现答案更准确，也没有发现它们更详细。

Paragraph 9: It's almost right. I'm not seeing a reason to use this over chat GPT. I prefer chat GPT so far. I'm just telling you.

这几乎是正确的。我看不出为什么要使用它而不是聊天GPT。目前为止，我更喜欢聊天GPT。我只是告诉你。

Paragraph 10: Okay. Well, the recent stuff is important. Well, I mean, clearly chat GPT is going to have to make the browsing plugin much snappier and like much more part of the core functionality rather than something that's like an add-on. Yeah, it can't be an add-on. It's got to be able to incorporate the most recent information.

好的。最近的东西很重要。我是说，显然聊天GPT需要使浏览插件更加迅速和更多地成为核心功能的一部分，而不是像一个附加功能。是的，它不能是一个附加功能。它必须能够整合最近的信息。

Paragraph 11: I did ask some questions about the Ukraine war and then it gave me like a highly compressed view and I said, please provide more detail and then it's actually did a pretty good job expanding it and it did it very quickly. Well, if you look at the view drafts thing, that's always been one of its strengths.

第11段：我确实问了一些关于乌克兰战争的问题，然后它给了我一个高度压缩的视角，我说，请提供更多细节，然后它实际上很快很好地扩展了这个问题。嗯，如果你看看卡片模板里的视角草稿，这一直是它的优点之一。

Paragraph 12: Is that a little format of three different ways for you? By default, if you go to the top right, so you can just sort of cycle through them, but that's an existing feature.

第12段：这对您来说是 3 种不同方式的小格式吗？默认情况下，如果您去到右上方，您可以通过循环来选择它们，但这是一项现有的功能。

Paragraph 13: I mean, I definitely want to keep playing with this. Play with it. It's one of the obviously important releases that I thought they were going to catch up real quick and this seems like we got to race on our hands now.

我是说，我绝对想继续使用这个。玩玩它。这是一个我认为他们会很快赶上的显然重要的发布，现在似乎我们需要赶紧行动了。

Paragraph 14: But I think the point you're making Freeberg is a good one which is one of these big companies just get their act together. It's very hard to discern whether something is 80% as good or 120% better.

第14段：但我认为Freeberg提出的观点非常好，就是那些大公司需要把自己的行动组织起来。很难判断某件事情是只达到了原本的80%，还是做得比原来更好了120%。

Paragraph 15: There's this fuzzy gray area where a lot of people can find utility in a lot of different products and then the one with the better distribution wins. And so if they take Bard and they have the confidence that it just integrated into Gmail or integrated into these other points where they already have hundreds of millions of users, that's like a really tough distribution barrier to overcome.

有这样一个模糊的灰色区域，许多人可以在许多不同的产品中找到实用性，然后具有更好分销的产品胜出。因此，如果他们选择Bard（一种文本编辑工具）并且有信心将其整合到Gmail或这些其他点上，这些点已经拥有数亿用户，那么这就是一个非常难以克服的分销障碍。

Paragraph 16: That's the next step that I think if Google really wants to win here, they have to force distribution of these tools in line to where people are. And if they do that, you're not going to know the difference between 80 and 100%. Someone has sophisticated its sacks may be able to, but the average person will just be like, this is good enough. They've got distribution.

我认为如果谷歌想在这里赢得胜利，下一步就是强制分发这些工具，让它们与人们所处的环境无缝连接。如果他们这样做，你将无法区分80和100％之间的差别。也许某些高级用户可以，但普通人只会认为这已经足够好了，因为他们已经实现了广泛分发。

Paragraph 17: I mean, like with all products, the kind of key advantage and distribution, that's the platform advantage. Can I show you an answer? I think it's like super hallucinating on. So I asked it, what is David Sacks written about SAS?

我是说，就像所有产品一样，关键的优点和分销方式，那就是平台优势。我能给你展示一个答案吗？我认为这个超级令人兴奋。所以我问了它，David Sacks关于SAS写了些什么？

Paragraph 18: And then it says, my venture capital entrepreneurs are essentially about SAS. He's a founder, yeah, okay, that's true. But then it says he's also the co founder of WeWork. Not true. Didn't know that. Then it says, Sacks, congrats, says, Sacks has written a number of articles about SAS, including.

接着文章中提到，我的风险投资创业家们主要关注SAS（公司名称），他是一位创始人，没错，这是真的。但是接下来文章说他也是WeWork的联合创始人，这是不对的，我不知道这个消息。然后文章说，恭喜Sacks，他曾经写过很多关于SAS的文章。

Paragraph 1: And then all five of those articles were not written by me. It's basically like hallucinating really strongly. So significant. hallucination here.

这五篇文章都不是我写的。就像是我非常强烈地幻觉了一样。幻觉非常明显。

Paragraph 2: Oh, you know what? Bart is at the after party for Google IO right now and it's had too much to drink. So it's just straight up drunk.

哦，你知道吗？巴特现在在 Google IO 的派对上，已经喝了太多酒了。所以他现在直接喝醉了。

Paragraph 3: This is why Google didn't want to release this right? Fredberg, like they don't want the Google brand associated with these hallucinations, whereas that's right.

这就是为什么谷歌不想要发布这个权利的原因吗？弗伦伯格认为，他们不想让谷歌品牌与这些幻觉联系起来，这是正确的。

Paragraph 4: Nobody cares what open aives brand. This was a big part of the innovator, it's the lemma that Google faced, which was number one, it could be disruptive to the core business. Number two, it exposes them to regulatory scrutiny. And number three, is if they make mistakes, they're going to get more scrutinized and some, you know, ranking-dinky startup where everyone's so forgiving.

没人在意开放式品牌是什么。这是创新者的一大难题，这也是谷歌所面临的引理：第一，这可能会扰乱核心业务；第二，会使他们遭受监管审查；第三，如果他们犯了错误，他们将受到更多的审查，而无法像那些容易宽恕的小型初创公司一样。

Paragraph 5: But it's great to see, look, I mean, as a shareholder, it's great to see them take this risk. It's great to see them put this out there. They've now released robust coding capabilities. They've integrated scientific research papers. Obviously, they're going to continue to improve model performance, improve integration with these data feeds. And they have a very large head count. I think north of 10,000 people working 10,000 smart people.

但是，作为股东，看到他们承担这种风险真是太好了。看到他们把这个产品推出来真是太好了。现在他们已经发布了强大的编码功能，整合了科学研究论文。显然，他们会继续改进模型的性能，提高与这些数据源的整合性。而且他们有非常庞大的劳动力规模，我认为超过了10,000个聪明人。

Paragraph 6: So if you can organize those people and they've got this significantly advantage in infrastructure, they have a real shot at being a platform player here. The question later is going to be how much is this going to disrupt core search revenue? You know, what categories of search revenue are going to get disrupted? And, you know, are they going to make that up in other ways? And I think time will tell there.

因此，如果您能组织这些人，并且他们在基础设施方面具有明显的优势，他们就有可能成为这里的平台玩家。后续的问题将是这是否会对核心搜索收入造成多大的破坏？您知道，哪些搜索收入类别会受到影响？他们会以其他方式弥补这一点吗？我认为时间会给出答案。

Paragraph 7: But I think this is the progress that shareholders and investors were looking to see with respect to the product competition in AI. And certainly, some shareholder still want to see continued improvements on the cost structure of the business. But that's a separate topic.

但我认为这正是股东和投资者期望看到的人工智能产品竞争的进步。当然，一些股东仍希望看到企业成本结构的持续改进。但这是一个单独的话题。

Paragraph 8: But this was exactly I think really hit the bulls eye on what people were looking for. I don't see how it's a bulls eye. So I just asked it, can you give me a complete list of all the articles on SAS that's actually been lost for years? So now at least it's over the target. Those five articles and mentions are correct. So chat GPT do that? Well, no, because the browsing plug-in.

这恰恰是我认为真正击中了人们想要的东西。我不明白这是怎么打中了要害。所以我问了，你能给我一个完整的列表，列出所有实际上已经丢失数年的SAS文章吗？现在至少已经扫描到了目标。那五篇文章和提及是正确的。那么聊天GPT可以做到吗？很遗憾，因为浏览插件所以不能。

Paragraph 9: But I'm just saying like they got a lot of work to do here on quality. Yeah, they all do. But it is snappy. And I finally got to these five articles being correct.

但我只是想说，他们在质量方面还有很多工作要做。是的，所有公司都是如此。但它确实很快捷。最终，我终于把这五篇文章的正确性弄清楚了。

Paragraph 10: AI regulation. We talked about it five weeks ago on the show. I think well, there's been some movement there. Vice President Harris met with CEOs of alphabet, Microsoft, OpenAI, Sinat Sundar, Satya, and Sam discussed implementing AI safeguards.

第10段：AI监管。我们在节目中五周前就谈到过它。我认为，现在这方面已经有一些进展了。副总统哈里斯会见了字母公司、微软、OpenAI、Sinat Sundar、Satya和Sam的首席执行官，讨论实施AI保障措施。

Paragraph 11: And then on Tuesday, Sam Altman was interviewed by Patrick Coulson, the CEO of Stripe. And he endorsed the idea of IAEA for AI. That's the International Atomic Energy Agency.

周二，Sam Altman接受了Stripe首席执行官Patrick Coulson的采访，并支持了IAEA对于人工智能的想法。IAEA即国际原子能机构。

Paragraph 12: So is that hyperbolic? Delusions of grandeur or right on target? Well, the interesting thing about the IAEA is that what I learned recently from the CEO of Planet Labs, Will Marshall is that the predecessor organization to the IAEA is really this organization called Pugwash.

那么这是言过其实吗？是自大的妄想还是实现了目标？有趣的是，我最近从Planet Labs的CEO Will Marshall那里得知，IAEA的前身组织实际上是一个名为“Pugwash”的组织。

Paragraph 13: And what that was, Einstein and Bertrand Russell in the 50s, Post-Herozema and Nagasaki bringing together academics to basically create a way to think about nuclear disarmament going forward just because they all saw the damage. And there was a large framework that set up the current denuclearization treaties. And then the IAEA was set up after that.

在上世纪50年代，爱因斯坦和伯特兰德·罗素为了防止核武器再次造成巨大破坏，组织了一些学者共同思考核裁军的方法。这个活动是在广岛和长崎爆炸后举行的。他们制定了大量的框架来促进当前的非核化条约。此后，国际原子能机构也成立了。

Paragraph 14: And so I think that there's a thread here which is basically what he's saying is there's something around nuclear disarmament that is very similar to AI, both in terms of its potential, but obviously in terms of its risks.

因此，我认为这里有一个主题，基本上他所说的是，核裁军的某些方面与人工智能非常相似，既有潜力，但显然也有风险。

Paragraph 15: And so there's like a whole monitoring framework. There's a no-your-customer kind of framework. These are not unfettered things that can just live openly in the wild. So I think it's interesting to acknowledge that Sam who's deep in the bowels of one of the most important companies sees both its potential, but it's danger enough to say that this is how we should think about it like nuclear weapons.

因此，有一个完整的监管框架。有一个认识客户（KYC）的框架。这些并不是可以在野外自由存活的无约束的事物。因此，我认为承认在最重要的公司之一的深处的Sam既看到了它的潜力，又看到了它的危险，足以说这就像是我们应该像核武器一样思考它。

Paragraph 16: I think is a very important thing to acknowledge. And the White House pledge to release draft guidelines for AI safeguards that the National Science Foundation plans to spend $840 million on at AI-focused research centers. FTC Chair Lena Khan wrote a guest essay in New York Times calling for AI regulation due to large share risk, including monopoly, solidation, fraud, extortion, and bias.

我认为这是一件非常重要的事情需要承认。白宫承诺发布AI保障的草案指南，国家科学基金会计划在AI研究中心投入840亿美元。FTC主席莲娜·汗在《纽约时报》发表客座文章呼吁对AI进行监管，原因是存在大量风险，包括垄断、合并、欺诈、勒索和偏见。

Paragraph 17: And he thought it's their sex about adding regulation to the mix right now. Are we jumping the gun here and going to smother this thing before it even gets correct answers? Serious risk. And the White House also announced that Kamala Harris would be the AI's R for this issue, which I don't think inspires anyone with confidence that they're going to get this right.

第17段：他认为现在加强监管是与性别有关的事情。我们正在过早地采取行动，会在正确的答案出现前扼杀这件事吗？这是一个严重的风险。白宫还宣布卡玛拉·哈里斯将成为处理该问题的人工智能负责人，我不认为这能给任何人带来信心，他们能正确地处理这个问题。

Paragraph 1: Look, my concern here is I think we should have conversations about the risks of AI. We should be thinking about that. I think people in the industry need to be thinking about what guardrails can we put on it.

第一段：听我说，我担心的是我们应该谈论人工智能的风险。我们应该思考它。我认为这个行业的人们需要思考我们能为之设立的限制措施。

Paragraph 2: I think Elon's raised, I think long-term concerns about whether this could lead to AGI, you basically create a superintelligence that you can't control. I think people in the industry haven't really figured out how to address that.

我认为伊隆提出了一个很重要的问题，那就是远期的担忧是否会导致人工智能 (AGI) 的产生，而这种超级智能可能是难以控制的。我认为行业内的人们还没有真正找到解决这个问题的方法。

Paragraph 3: That problem is called alignment. And everyone's trying to figure out how do you even make alignment work? Is that theoretically possible?

那个问题被称为“对齐”。每个人都在试图弄清楚如何使对齐有效？那理论上是否可能？

Paragraph 4: So there are real and valid concerns, Jake, how you raise the issue of deep fakes. I think providence of data is going to be a real issue. People committing fraud or other kinds of criminal acts using it.

所以，Jake，谈到深度伪造的问题是存在真实且合理的担忧的。我认为数据的来源将成为一个真正的问题。这可能会导致人们利用它进行欺诈或其他各种犯罪行为。

Paragraph 5: So there are real concerns, but the problem is that we have no idea how to regulate this yet. And the fact that Kamala Harris is the AI's R now, again, just points the fact that nobody has a good idea of what this is supposed to be or who the experts supposed to be.

所以我们确实存在真正的担忧，但问题在于我们还不知道如何进行监管。而卡玛拉·哈里斯成为AI的副总统也再次证明了，没有人知道这应该是什么以及谁应该是专家。

Paragraph 6: And this idea of creating an atomic energy commission, look, I can see why Sam and other industry leaders might want that because they're going to quickly develop relationships. The biggest AI companies, which now includes OpenAI, which has the backing of Microsoft and Google, and the biggest of the big tech companies, they have all the lobbyists in Washington, they have all the political connections.

第六段：这个创造一个原子能委员会的想法，我能理解为什么萨姆和其他行业领袖可能想要这样做，因为他们会很快建立起联系。现在最大的人工智能公司包括得到微软和谷歌支持的OpenAI，以及最大的科技巨头企业，他们在华盛顿有所有的游说者，他们与政治家有着紧密的关系。

Paragraph 7: They're the ones who are huge donors, and they have political relationships, and they're going to help construct the regulations. And it's going to turn into another example of industry capture, just like Jorge Jr. told us about on the show last week when he talked about how the big weapons companies influence our foreign policy, the way that the big pharma companies influence the FDA and so on.

他们是巨大的捐赠者，与政治关系密切，他们将协助制定规定。这将成为又一个行业占有的例子，就像乔治·朱尔回顾我们上周所说的那样，大型武器公司如何影响我们的外交政策，以及大型制药公司如何影响食品药品监督管理局等等。

Paragraph 8: We're going to end up in a situation in which the big tech companies have inordered influence over this new regulatory agency. And since it's not clear what the regulatory agency is even supposed to be doing yet, they're going to end up promulgating a bunch of regulations that create a barrier to entry for the little guy. Getting a creative mode with regulation.

我们将面临这样一种情况：大型科技公司对这个新的监管机构产生了重要影响。由于目前尚不清楚监管机构的具体职责，他们可能会颁布一系列的法规，给小型公司造成进入门槛。这将使监管变得创意模式。

Paragraph 9: Yeah. For the big guys, and they'll slow down the whole process of innovation in the space, which some people might like, but I think is really the best hope that America has to get out of its horrible fiscal situation, all this debt.

是的，面对大公司，他们会拖慢整个创新空间的进程，有些人可能会喜欢这样，但我认为这确实是美国摆脱可怕的财政状况、债务缠身的最好希望。

Paragraph 10: We need a massive productivity boost to get out of the massive debt bubble that we're in. So what I'd hate to see is that, yeah, we basically kills this thing in the cradle.

第10段：我们需要一个大规模的生产力提升来摆脱我们所处的巨大债务泡沫。因此，我不希望看到的是，我们在刚刚开始的时候就把这个东西扼杀掉了。

Paragraph 11: Interesting. Yes, we are in a deep pit here, and Stanley Druckermiller gave speech at USC. At the 37th annual meeting of the USC Marshall Center for Investment Studies, and he expressed concern about the financial crisis that could occur in the 2025 to 2035 period, due to the baby boomers charting 65 in the impact on entitlements.

很有趣。是的，我们陷入了一个深不见底的困境，斯坦利·德鲁克米勒在南加州大学发表了演讲。在南加州大学马歇尔投资研究中心第37届年会上，他对2025年到2035年可能发生的金融危机表达了关切，这是由于婴儿潮一代年满65岁对福利的影响所致。

Paragraph 12: He predicted that in 25 years, spending on seniors will grow to 60% of all taxes. Here's a look at the chart. You can see today, there, as the vertical line, about 5% of our GDP goes to Social Security today, and about another 5.5 goes to Medicare Medicaid. It's predicting here that those combined will go from what looks like 12% today, up to 24% of GDP, your reaction.

他预测，在未来25年，老年人的支出将占到所有税收的60%。看一下这张图表。你可以看到，今天约有5%的GDP用于社会保障，另外大约5.5%用于医疗保险。这里预测这些支出加在一起会从今天的12%增加到24%的GDP，你的反应是什么？

Paragraph 13: Freeberg? My reaction is another very important voice stating the obvious. Like the arithmetic, just doesn't work. When we had RFK on last week, I prodded him on his stance and point of view, on the federal deficit, the fiscal deficit, this government runs, and the entitlement programs that are only going to swell.

第13段：Freeberg？我的反应是另一个非常重要的声音，指出了显而易见的问题。就像算术一样，根本行不通。上周我们采访RFK时，我促使他谈论他对联邦赤字、财政赤字、政府运作和只会膨胀的福利计划的立场和观点。

Paragraph 14: And the debt burden, which has an interest payment obligation on it, that the interest payments are swelling. And when you do the arithmetic on all this, it's going to balloon the cost to service the debt. And without some degree of cutting across the board, spending and entitlement programs, discretionary spending and entitlement programs, you can't make the interest payments, which inevitably leads to some form of default.

第14段：而且有债务负担，其中的利息支付义务也越来越多。当你计算所有这些，它将导致支付债务成本的大幅增加。如果不在全面削减支出和福利计划、自由支出和福利计划的程度上采取行动，就无法支付利息，这必然会导致某种形式的违约。

Paragraph 15: That's just the math and the way this all works out. And I think what he's done is put a pen to paper and show him that, call it roughly 2025 to 2035, you start to run into that fiscal scenario, where you can no longer generate enough income from the US economy to fund both the interest payment obligations on the federal debt, as well as these entitlement programs, and something's got to give.

这只是数学，也是整个情况的运作方式。我认为他所做的是将笔放在纸上，向他展示了在粗略地说2025至2035期间，你开始陷入财政困境，无法从美国经济中获得足够的收入来资助联邦债务的利息支付义务以及这些福利计划。必须有所妥协。

Paragraph 16: Either you're going to have to default on the debt, or you're going to have to cut the entitlement programs. And the point he's making is that the longer you wait to cut the entitlement programs, the worse it's going to get, because you're accruing so much debt in the interim. And as we know, that becomes very politically unpopular.

第16段：你要么得违约，要么得削减福利计划。他表达的意思是，你越晚削减福利计划，情况就会变得越糟，因为这个过程中你会累积大量的债务。而众所周知，这在政治上是很不受欢迎的。

Paragraph 1: And what's so scary to me, and I've kind of shared this, and obviously, Chimata's a different point of view, but it feels to me like, this is that don't look up movie moment. where we have this like, you know, looming disaster, we don't have any fuel in the car. And all that everyone's talking about is where are we going to drive the car? And every political conversation, every candidate gets on stage, gets on a podcast, gets on a TV show, and they talk about stuff that is simply not feasible.

我感到很害怕，我已经表达过这种想法了，当然，Chimata有不同的观点，但是对我来说，这就像电影《别看上面》中的场景，我们面临着一场迫在眉睫的灾难，但车子里面的油已经用尽了，而所有人都在谈论我们要去哪里开车。每一次政治谈话，每一个候选人上台，在播客上，上电视节目，在谈论那些根本不可行的事情。

Paragraph 2: And the direction setting with respect to social policy, wars, geopolitics, you know, how are we going to take care of our middle class? None of that stuff is possible to actually execute against without recognizing and acknowledging that we don't have gas in the car. And we have to figure out how to gas up the car.

第二段：关于社会政策、战争、地缘政治方向的设定，你知道，我们要如何照顾我们的中产阶级？如果不承认并认识到我们的车里没有油，那么所有这些都无法实施。我们必须想办法给车加油。

Paragraph 3: And so it's great to see Druckett Miller being vocal, putting very simple clear slides together. It's like what I've mentioned in the past, I would love to see a Clinton-esque Bill Clinton-esque slide deck where he would come up with a poster and show everyone. Here's the economy, folks. And I think Druckett Miller did a great job, and I encourage everyone to go watch that. There's an audio transcript of the talk as well as the slides are publicly available on the internet.

第三段: 很高兴看到德鲁克特·米勒发声，并制作了非常简单明了的幻灯片。就像我过去所提到的一样，我希望看到类似于克林顿类型的幻灯片，比尔·克林顿式的海报展示给每个人看。这就是经济，伙计们。我认为德鲁克特·米勒做得很出色，我鼓励每个人去观看。这次演讲也公开了音频剪辑以及幻灯片，可以在互联网上公开查看。

Paragraph 4: We'll put the links in the show notes here today. I just think it's, whether or not you agree with the outlook, I think it's worth everyone watching and realizing how serious of an issue this is and why this has to become the number one topic of conversation going to this next presidential election cycle.

今天我们会把链接放在节目备注中。我认为，无论你是否赞同这种观点，每个人都值得去看并意识到这是多么严重的问题，而且为什么这必须成为下一届总统选举周期中的头等话题。

Paragraph 5: He's also just close. He short the dollar long gold euro oil and AUD, which I guess is the Australian dollar. And he's also long Nvidia and Microsoft believes Nvidia's got him an upway on the chip market.

他的策略在多个投资品种上表现得不错。他做了空美元多黄金欧元、石油和澳元（我猜是指澳大利亚元）。此外，他还看好英伟达和微软，认为英伟达在芯片市场上有优势。

Paragraph 6: I got a question for Tramoth and then to Sacks. So Tramoth, what's your just reaction to this? Do you think he's Dr. Dooming it and we can have all this debt? And then the question then becomes, is there any way out of this? We had a Trump town hall. I hate to bring it up and go back into the sort of Trump commentary on all this, but he's the lead candidate, Sacks.

第六段：我有一个问题要问Tramoth，然后再问Sacks。那么，Tramoth，你对此有何反应？你认为他是在做“残忍的博士”并且我们可以承担这么多债务吗？然后问题就变成了，有没有任何办法摆脱这个困境？我们有一个特朗普市政厅。我不想提起它，也不想再回到所有这些特朗普的评论，但他是领先的候选人，Sacks。

Paragraph 7: And he said he thinks we can get out of debt. We just got a drill, a bunch of oil, drill belt, baby drill, and we'll get out of this problem. We'll be able to rebound some budget. So Tramoth and then Sacks.

他说他认为我们可以清偿债务。我们刚刚得到了一个钻机、一堆石油、钻井带、小型钻井设备，我们会摆脱这个问题的。我们将能够恢复一些预算。接下来是特拉莫斯和萨克斯。

Paragraph 8: I want to be clear. I don't think it's great that we have these enormous debts and entitlement obligations. But I also don't think that there's some magical number where the economy breaks. And the reason is because we're central to not just our economy, but everybody else's economy.

第八段：我想要明确一点。我不认为我们拥有巨额债务和权益义务是好事。但我也不认为有一个神奇的数字可以让经济崩溃。原因是我们不仅对自己的经济中心，也对其他国家的经济中心都至关重要。

Paragraph 9: We are the reserve currency of the world that's not changing anytime soon. It's not even close. And we are for better or worse. And I think Sacks and I don't like it, but we are the world's policeman. We are a bunch of things. We are the world's center of innovation. We are the world's center of these great leaps forward in humanity.

我们是世界储备货币，这种情况短时间内不会改变。这一点非常明确。不管好坏，我们是世界的警察。我们是很多东西的集合体。我们是世界创新的中心，是人类实现飞跃的伟大源泉。我和萨克斯并不喜欢这种角色，但事实就是如此。

Paragraph 10: When we talk about all of these different things, these aren't coming from random countries. They're coming from the United States. We can debate which company, but we're never debating the country. So I think that there's a legacy of value creation and innovation that we've always been at the forefront of. At least since America was founded. So 1776 to now.

当我们谈论所有这些不同的东西时，它们并不来自随机的国家，而是来自美国。我们可以讨论哪家公司做得更好，但我们从来没有讨论过哪个国家更好。因此，我认为我们一直处于价值创造和创新的前沿，至少自美国成立以来一直如此，从1776年到现在。

Paragraph 11: I think the reality is that debt to GDP will continue to increase. I don't think a single politician can practically get elected by offering to cut entitlement spending to people that have spent their entire lives paying into a system. So as a practical matter, this thing will go up.

我认为现实情况是国债与GDP之比将继续增加。我认为没有一个政治家可以通过承诺削减给那些为整个系统进行了贡献的人提供的福利支出而实际上当选。所以从实际角度来看，这个问题将会继续上升。

Paragraph 12: And I don't think the economy will stop. I think that economics are a relative problem where you have to weigh countries against each other. And what that means is the economic vibrancy, the productivity, the intellect, all of those things where we have to compete with El Salvador, we have to compete with Nigeria, we have to compete with India, we have to compete with Australia.

我认为经济不会停滞。经济是一个相对问题，你必须把不同国家放在一起比较。这意味着我们必须跟萨尔瓦多、尼日利亚、印度和澳大利亚竞争，包括经济活力、生产力和智力水平等方面。

Paragraph 13: And in that context, there is very little historical artifact that says that there's a breaking point. So I just think that if you observe the moment, it's not that what Freeberg is saying is bad. I'm not exactly sure that it's particularly actionable. And I think the disproportionate amount of action is actually the opposite, which is to re-inflate the money supply, to re-inflate assets, to create artificial prosperity and smear it to many, many, many people.

在这种情况下，几乎没有历史文物表明存在一个破裂点。因此，我认为如果你观察当前的情况，Freeberg所说的并不是不好的。但我不确定它是否特别可行。我认为做出大量反应的实际上是相反的，即重新扩张货币供应，重新扩张资产，创造人为的繁荣，并向很多人涂抹上这种繁荣。

Paragraph 14: And I think that you have to think about how do you want to activate your view? I can believe whatever I want, but at the end of the day, I don't want to act in a way that's against my economic best interest, quite honestly. So I believe that winning is measured in dollars and cents on these things.

我的意思是，你需要考虑如何激发你的观点？我可以相信任何我想要相信的东西，但归根结底，我不想以一种违背我经济最大利益的方式行事，说实话。因此，我相信在这些问题上，胜利是用美元和分钱来衡量的。

Paragraph 1: And from that perspective, I don't particularly like it. I think I'm emotionally more aligned to Freeberg, but the practical reality is, I'm on the opposite side, which says the governments will keep spending.

从这个角度来看，我不是特别喜欢这种情况。我认为我的情感更倾向于Freeberg，但实际情况是，我站在相反的一边，即政府将继续支出。

Paragraph 2: Inflation will be here. Assets will keep inflating. The M2 money supply will keep going up. And on general, I'm longed the United States in short every other country.

通货膨胀即将到来，资产将继续增值，M2货币供应量将继续增加。总的来说，我看好美国，而看淡其他国家。

Paragraph 3: Tomac, doesn't that ultimately lead to just inflation? It initially starts at the inflation of assets and asset prices, but it ultimately leads to the inflation of goods and services, which can cripple the economy because then the middle class can't afford things.

汤马克，这最终不是会导致通货膨胀吗？这起初会导致资产和资产价格的通货膨胀，但最终会导致商品和服务的通货膨胀，这可能会使中产阶级无法负担物品而使经济瘫痪。

Paragraph 4: And you have economic slowdown. I mean, that's the historical record of having these kind of inflationary moments. Yeah, I mean, inflation comes and goes, but the position of the American US dollar hasn't changed.

第四段：此外还有经济放缓的问题。我的意思是，这种通货膨胀的时刻，在历史上总是伴随着经济放缓的出现。是的，通货膨胀来了又走了，但美国美元的地位并没有改变。

Paragraph 5: Again, you have to remember like a lot of these foreign governments, 187 or whatever the number is, countries outside the United States, rely on the US dollar. They don't want to own their own currency. Right?

第五段：你必须记住，很多外国政府（数量大约为187个或其他），依赖美元，他们不想太依赖自己的货币。明白吗？

Paragraph 6: And so, yeah, you're right. Dollars do get inflated, but that increased purchasing power also actually drives the balance of power back to the United States because all of these other folks all of a sudden find the ability to import a little bit cheaper.

所以，你是对的。美元确实会被通货膨胀，但这种购买力的增加实际上也会将力量平衡带回到美国，因为其他国家也会发现他们可以更便宜地进口商品。

Paragraph 7: Their economies get slightly better, but the US dollar actually still does well. So there's a complex set of interactions that are all relative.

他们的经济略有改善，但美元实际上仍然表现良好。因此存在一系列复杂的相互作用。

Paragraph 8: So I think it's very hard to point to the US middle class and say, oh, this is why the US breaks. I just don't see very many good examples in a modern globalist era.

因此，我认为很难仅仅从美国中产阶级的角度来指出美国的问题所在。在现代的全球主义时代，我并没有看到很多好的例子。

Paragraph 9: And there are examples. And I think Ray Dallio has pointed these out when you look all the way in the back, but to use the UK right in the 15 and 1600s of the East India trading company when we did not have a global economy or a global reserve currency, I don't think it's very useful.

这里有一些例子。我认为 Ray Dallio 已经在后面指出过了。但是，将英国在 15 和 16 世纪东印度贸易公司作为例子，这在我们没有全球经济或全球储备货币的情况下，我认为并不是很有用。

Paragraph 10: There's things you can learn, you know, taxation. I think we can learn about why taxation does kill innovation. You said that before I agree with that. But I don't think there's much value in saying because it happened in these moments, it's going to happen exactly the same way here.

第十段：有些事情你可以学习，比如税收。我认为我们可以学习为什么税收会扼杀创新。你之前说过这个观点，我也同意。但是我认为仅仅因为在过去发生过这样的事情，就肯定会在这里以同样的方式发生，这种说法并没有多少价值。

Paragraph 11: And I think what people don't understand is we are in a unitary singular mono economy that is anchored by the US dollar.

第11段：我认为人们不理解的是我们处于一个以美元为锚的单一经济体中。

Paragraph 12: Saxony, that's. Saxony, agree. I tend to be on the freeberg drucumular side of this thing.

第12段: 指的是萨克森。萨克森同意。我倾向于站在自由贝格德鲁库拉姆的一边。

Paragraph 13: Drucumular had a great quote in this interview he just gave. I don't know. Freeberg, did you mention this last week that he said that that he compared the debt ceiling and fiscal spending to worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the pier when you know there's a 200-foot tsunami just 10 miles out.

在这次采访中，Drucumular说了一句很棒的话。我不知道，Freeberg，上周你是否提到他说过，他将债务上限和财政支出比作担心30英尺高的海浪会不会损坏码头，而实际上只有10英里外有200英尺高的海啸。

Paragraph 14: Yeah, I saw that quote. So what he's saying is like our short term situation is bad. The long term situation, which isn't even that long term, like 10 years out, is even worse.

是的，我看到过那句话。他的意思是我们的短期情况很糟糕。而且，长期情况更糟糕，即使只是10年之后的情况。

Paragraph 15: And I think there's a growing feeling that our political system is just not up to the challenge of dealing with these problems. It just seems fundamentally unseurious. We never discuss it. The media doesn't really present us with accurate information and it has an agenda.

在我看来，越来越多的人认为我们的政治系统无法应对这些问题的挑战。它似乎基本上不够严肃。我们从未讨论过它。媒体并未真正向我们呈现准确的信息，而是有其自己的议程。

Paragraph 16: You guys want to make a bet? Saxony, you want to make a friendly wager with me? Sure, what's that?

你们想打赌吗？萨克森州，你愿意与我做个友好的赌注吗？当然，那是什么赌注？

Paragraph 17: Okay, I will bet you that debt to GDP gets to 200 before it gets to 50. And I'll bet you however amount of money you want and we can do it for our own personal gain or for charity.

好的，我愿意与你打赌，说国债占国内生产总值比例会在50之前到达200。而且我可以和你打赌任意金额，我们可以为了自己的个人利益或者为了慈善事业。

Paragraph 18: That may well be true, but the question is how bad is 200% debt to GDP? I don't think that's a really bad scenario. I mean, I really don't think it matters.

这可能是正确的，但问题是200%的债务占GDP有多糟糕？我并不认为这是一个非常糟糕的情况。我的意思是，我真的不认为这很重要。

Paragraph 19: I think the point is if you think it's gone left, if that happens, yeah, we'll have a lot of money. You'll just have to profit from it. If you think it's happening, your job is to profit from it.

我认为关键在于，如果你认为情况已经向左转，如果那样发生了，我们将拥有大量的资金。你只需从中获利。如果你认为这正在发生，那么你的任务就是从中获利。

Paragraph 20: I'll make the same bet with you, Freiburg. I think it gets to 200 before it gets to 50 or 250 or 300, you can pick your number.

第20段：弗赖堡，我愿意和你打同样的赌注。我认为它会先升到200，而不是50、250或300，你可以选择你的数字。

Paragraph 21: I think it will too. I'm just like... Let's do the math on that real quick. So the the size of GDP is what? About 25 trillion and we're at about 32 trillion of debt.

我认为也是这样。我只是想……稍微算一下这个问题。那么GDP的规模是多少呢？大约25万亿美元，而我们的债务则是32万亿美元左右。

Paragraph 22: If we're to have 200% debts of GDP right now, it would be at 50 trillion of debt. Now, let's assume that's imputed and illustrated what you would need to finance that. Right.

如果我们现在的债务占GDP的200％，那么债务总额将达到50万亿美元。现在，让我们假设这是一个假设，并说明需要财务支持的方式。好的。

Paragraph 23: 4%. So I think 4%. You have to calculate the duration. I understand, but just... Let's just... Let's just base it. So let's say 4%. So 4% on 50 trillion is 2 trillion a year. Yep.

第23段：4%。所以我认为是4%。你得计算时间。我明白，但是，就...我们就...咱们就按这个来吧。所以，就算是4%。那么50万亿的话，就是每年2万亿。是的。

Paragraph 24: Which is... Isn't that like half the budget? Yeah, more. And that's my point. That's why you have to see taxes go up to over 70% because it's the only way you can...

这就像是预算的一半，对吧？是的，更多了。这就是我的观点。这就是为什么你必须看到税收上涨到70%以上的原因，因为这是唯一的方法...

Paragraph 25: You got to tax everything in order to fund that. So US government has collected 2 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Now, I guess we haven't done a complete year, but let's do 2022.

为了筹资，您必须对所有事情都征税。因此，美国政府在2023财政年度收集了2万亿美元。现在，我猜我们还没有完成一整年的征税，但让我们来看看2022年的情况。

Paragraph 1: It basically collected 3.7 trillion. Right.

它基本上收集了3.7万亿。没错。这句话是在谈论收集的金额数，表达的意思是这个数目非常巨大，达到了3.7万亿的规模。

Paragraph 2: You're using more than half of the government's income based on the current tax rates to fund the interest payments on your debt. That's not even to pay for social services.

第二段：基于当前的税率，您使用了超过政府收入的一半来支付负债的利息。而这甚至还不包括社会服务的费用。

Paragraph 3: That's not even to pay for the defense. That's not even to pay for government services. That's just more than half of the income.

这甚至还没有包括国防费用和政府服务费用。这只是收入的一半多一点。

Paragraph 4: I guess maybe we're just speaking past each other. I guess you guys are expressing anxiety and concern. And I'm just expressing, here's how one would make money because it's pretty obvious what's going to happen.

我想可能是我们之间的表达方式出现了误解。你们表达的是焦虑和担忧，而我只是在说出如何赚钱，因为很容易预见未来会发生什么。

Paragraph 5: We're going to 200. We're not going to 50. So I just kind of... How do you make money? I think there's a lot of ways that you could make money.

我们的目标是达到200。我们不只满足于50。所以我有点疑惑…你是如何赚钱的？我认为有很多赚钱的方式。

Paragraph 6: I'm not going to share those on the pot anymore, but there's a lot of money to make money. What's the trade there? Stan Druckenmiller said it's the opposite of Stan's trades actually.

第6段：我不再在公共场合分享这些了，但是有很多钱可以赚。那么这个交易是什么呢？斯坦·德鲁肯米勒说，它实际上与斯坦的交易相反。

Paragraph 7: Would you go long the dollar in short gold? No, because those are like antiquated ways of making money where you have to have these convoluted derivatives agreements with these banks.

你会做多美元同时做空黄金吗？不会，因为这种方式已经过时，需要和银行签订繁琐的衍生品协议来赚钱。

Paragraph 8: And I've done these before where you're levered up to billions of dollars of risk. It proves nothing and I don't see it while it died.

我以前做过这些事情，你承担了数十亿美元的风险。这证明不了什么，我也看不出它会有什么好处。

Paragraph 9: I think that there are simpler strategies that you can implement, but I think Stan is basically betting that the US will break and that we will be forced in some way to bring debt to GDP closer to 50 than to 150 or 200.

我认为有一些更简单的策略可以实施，但我认为斯坦基本上是在打赌美国会崩溃，我们将被迫以某种方式将债务与GDP的比例接近50而不是150或200。

Paragraph 10: And I would just bet the opposite. And it's not because I want it to happen or that he's not intellectually or morally right.

我会打赌是相反的情况。这并不是因为我希望发生这种情况或者他在智力或道德上有问题。

Paragraph 11: Also, inflation down again, we've kind of gotten used to this, but I thought this was a particularly interesting chart.

此外，通货膨胀再次下降，我们对此已经习以为常了，但我认为这张图表格外有意思。

Paragraph 12: If you look at food goods and energy, all going in the right direction, services still very expensive. Any thoughts on the fed and inflation as we wrap up on sort of where we're right here is another 25 basis points.

如果你看看食品商品和能源，它们都在朝着正确的方向发展，但服务仍然非常昂贵。我们有没有关于联邦储备与通货膨胀的想法？我们现在差不多已经到达了另外25个基点的位置了。

Paragraph 13: Poor inflation is very sticky. Yeah. Right. Yeah. I mean, with CPIs down to 4.9%, but core actually, it was up. It was up. It was up. 5.3% something like that. Yeah, core was up.

第13段：物价低迷非常困难改变。是的。没错。我是说，尽管CPI下降至4.9%，但核心物价实际上上涨了。它上涨了。它上涨了。大约是5.3%。是的，核心物价上涨了。

Paragraph 14: So yeah, the fed is, it raised another 25 basis points, what we have to like 5.25%. I was ready to stop, you know, two hikes ago, because I thought that the economy was breaking, the banking system was breaking.

所以，联邦已经再次提高了25个基点，使利率达到了5.25％。我已经准备好在两次加息之前停止，因为我认为经济已经崩溃，银行系统已经崩溃了。

Paragraph 15: They're up to now to 5.25. You've got core CPIs still sticky. Yes, CPIs come in down, but it looks like inflation's still a problem.

目前他们达到了5.25。核心物价指数仍然比较高。是的，物价指数有所下降，但似乎通货膨胀仍然是一个问题。

Paragraph 16: This is not a great setup for economic recovery. And if you believe, here's a problem with accepting the idea that inflation is going to be persistently high, is if inflation remains persistently high, then the fed won't be able to lower interest rates.

这对经济复苏并不是一个很好的布局。如果你相信通货膨胀会持续高企的话，就会遇到一个问题，那就是如果通货膨胀持续高企，那么联邦储备委员会将无法降低利率。

Paragraph 17: So they'll need to keep them elevated. They not even need to keep raising them. And if that happens, they'll continue to be incredible stress on the banking system. And more banks are going to break.

因此，他们需要保持这些资产的价值上涨。他们甚至可能需要继续提升它们的价值。如果这样做，银行系统将继续承受巨大的压力，更多的银行可能会破产。

Paragraph 18: And then eventually, that will create the conditions for the financial crisis. I think the thing you guys have to be open to is the fact that we've never really tested the ability for the US to borrow durationally beyond 30 years.

接着，这将最终导致金融危机的条件出现。我认为你们必须要接受这样的事实，即我们从未真正测试过美国在30年甚至更长时间内持续借款的能力。

Paragraph 19: And again, we talked about what an error it was in judgment for the Treasury not to issue 100-year bonds. But I think if there's any country in the world that can issue 100-year bonds, it's the United States of America.

第19段：我们再次讨论了财政部不发行100年期债券的错误判断。然而，我认为如果世界上有任何一个国家可以发行100年期债券，那么这个国家一定是美利坚合众国。

Paragraph 20: And I do think that they'll be able to get durational assets that are that far out on the yield curve. So I, again, am less concerned about the debt wall here because I think you'll be able to push matured these out.

第20段：我认为他们将能够获取到到期日在收益曲线很长的可持续性资产。所以，我再次对这里的债务墙不太担心，因为我认为你们将能够推迟到期日。

Paragraph 21: You'll be able to refi a bunch of short-term obligations into the future. And if you look at where the yield curve is, 10 years at three and a half, 340 something.

你将能够将一堆短期债务重新融资到未来。而且，如果你看一下收益率曲线，10年期的收益率是3.5%，大约是340左右。

Paragraph 22: So the thought is that inflation goes down. If you put it out to 100 years, I would be very surprised if 100-year rates, if they priced a bond, weren't somewhere sub 1%.

这里说的是通货膨胀率会下降。如果往后预测100年，我非常惊讶如果100年期限的债券定价不在1%以下。

Paragraph 23: So I do think it becomes effectively free money for the United States. And I think it's just a practical thing they need to explore. By the way, corporates have explored these 50-year bonds and greater.

我认为这对于美国来说就是实际上的免费资金。我认为探索这个方案是一件非常实际的事情。而且，顺便说一下，公司已经探索了这些长达50年甚至更长期限的债券。

Paragraph 24: So I think it's just like it's a matter of mathematics as you guys have just illustrated here that the US has to push out past 30 years. So we'll have 50-year US bonds. We'll have 100-year US bonds.

我认为这就像是数学问题，正如你们刚刚阐述的那样，美国必须要向前推进30年，所以我们将会有50年，甚至100年的美国国债。

Paragraph 25: Again, I'm not here to claim whether it's right or wrong, but I think the simple way to acknowledge that is just that we are going to re-inflate the money supply over the long term because it's the only sustainable way that politicians can get elected and re-elected. And I think the best thing to do there is to own risk assets.

再次强调，我不想断言这是对还是错，但我认为承认这一点的简单方法就是长期重新扩大货币供应，因为这是政治家们能够当选和连任的唯一可持续方式。我认为最好的方法是拥有风险资产。

Paragraph 26: Let's move on to the presidential election real quick. I'm curious, gentlemen. Last week we had RFK on. Did you get any feedback? The show obviously did really well.

我们来快速谈谈总统选举的问题。我很好奇，先生们。上周我们采访了RFK。你们得到了什么反馈吗？这个节目显然表现非常好。

Paragraph 1: A lot of people watched it. I got a tremendous amount of feedback. People thought he was a fascinating, interesting character. Some people thought. he was a conspiracy theorist. They pointed out a bunch of different moments during the interview.

第一段：很多人看了这个节目。我收到了大量反馈。人们认为他是一个迷人、有趣的角色。一些人认为他是一个阴谋论者。他们在采访中指出了许多不同的时刻。

Paragraph 2: But what was the general feedback you got? My biggest thing was I think he surprised a lot of people to the upside. A lot of people emailed me saying they thought one specific thing with him. We tried to address it, which is he's painted as this kind of conspiracy theorist or anti-vax person by the mainstream media. And overwhelmingly, so much of the feedback was, wow, this guy is so totally different because you gave him a long format in order for him to really talk.

第二段：但是你得到了什么一般的反馈呢？我最大的感受是，我认为他让很多人感到惊喜。很多人给我发电子邮件说他们原本认为他会有一个特定的问题。我们试图解决这个问题，这就是，他被主流媒体描绘成阴谋论者或反疫苗人士。而反馈中压倒性的一点是，哇，这个人完全不同，因为你给了他一个长格式来让他真正地说话。

Paragraph 3: I thought he was really engaging and very interesting and very smart. Sacks, did you get feedback on it? Yeah, I mean, I think he is very authentic. I think he's very principled. I think that he's a rebel in a way.

第三段：我认为他非常引人入胜，非常有趣，也非常聪明。萨克斯，你有没有得到反馈意见？是的，我认为他非常真实，非常有原则性。我认为他是一个叛逆者。

Paragraph 4: I mean, to grow up in the Kennedy family and to be part of all of those elite circles, whether it's in Hollywood or Harvard or where do they go for the summer? Martha's Vineyard. Martha's Vineyard or... Can a bunk port. Can a bunk port. I mean, you think about all of the elite circles that he grew up in, and for him to deviate from Democratic Party orthodoxy and elite thinking in all these really significant ways, shows that he is, again, very principled, very authentic and I think a rebel in a really good way. And he's telling people a lot of things that you just don't hear on the Democratic side and through the mainstream media.

我是说，在肯尼迪家庭中成长并成为所有这些精英团体的一部分，无论是好莱坞、哈佛还是他们去哪里度过夏天？玛莎葡萄园。玛莎葡萄园或者卡娜邦克波特。我是说，你想想他成长中接触的所有精英圈子，而他从民主党的正统和精英思维中偏离，以这些非常重要的方式展现出他非常有原则，非常真实，我认为是一个很好的反叛者。他告诉人们很多你不会在民主党内部和主流媒体中听到的事情。

Paragraph 5: So I think it's all positive. Yeah, I got positive feedback on a freeberg. The one thing people said was, some people said not a lot, but they expected us to push back maybe on him harder or something or be harder. I thought we did an interesting job of letting him talk and really taking these topics to 10 or 20 minutes each.

所以我认为一切都是积极的。是的，我在Freeberg上得到了积极的反馈。人们唯一提出的意见是，有些人认为我们应该更加强硬地反击他，或者更加坚定地表达自己的立场。但我认为我们在让他发言的过程中做得很有趣，每个话题都让我们探讨了10到20分钟。

Paragraph 6: The one people were particularly, I don't know, concerned as the right word or puzzled by was that we didn't push back as much on the vaccine stuff. We just let him talk about it. A week later, what do you think about his vaccine position and would you have pushed back more or do you regret not pushing back more freeberg?

第六段：有一个问题让人们特别关注，我不知道“担忧”或“困惑”更适合形容，那就是我们对于疫苗问题没有太多反驳，只是听着他说。一个星期后，你认为他的疫苗立场怎么样？你是否应该更积极地反驳他，还是后悔没有更多地反驳 Freeberg？

Paragraph 7: He made a lot of generalized statements or statements that I think take a concern about one thing and then make them evidence for a whole thing being off. For example, there is a vaccine that is inefficacious. There was a vaccine that had mercury in it. Therefore, all vaccines are bad. Oh, we over-vaccinate now.

第七段：他发表了很多概括性的陈述，或者我认为把一个问题的关注点作为整体被否定的证据。例如，有一种疫苗是无效的。曾经有一种疫苗含有汞。因此，所有的疫苗都是不好的。哦，我们现在过度接种疫苗了。

Paragraph 8: Many vaccines today that kids take going into schools have saved countless lives and they've had a really critical role in reducing a lot of child born illness. It's been just an incredible advance for humanity for medicine, et cetera. I think he had a number of points he made about the COVID vaccine. I know he's made these points for many years. He kind of extrapolates that it's evidence that vaccines are generally over-prescribed and overused and pharma companies are just out to make money and the government is aligned with pharma companies to just try and make money.

如今，许多儿童接种的疫苗进入学校，挽救了无数人的生命，并在减少许多儿童出生疾病方面起到了至关重要的作用。这对于人类的医学领域来说是一个不可思议的进步。我知道他有关于新冠疫苗的几点观点，而且这些观点他许多年前就曾提出过。他认为这证明疫苗通常被过度开处方和滥用，制药公司只是为了赚钱，而政府则与制药公司对齐，只是试图赚钱。

Paragraph 9: I don't think that that is necessarily true. I think that there are certainly incentives that can drive bad behavior, but I do not think that looking at the evidence, both contra-evidence and evidence of safety and benefit that childhood vaccines should be kind of changed in terms of how we're doing things today. There may be some things to change, but generally, I think that they're very beneficial.

我并不认为这是必然的真相。我认为肯定存在可以促使不良行为的激励因素，但经过了解证据，包括对证据、安全性和儿童疫苗的益处的反证和证据方面，我们不需要在如何进行事情方面进行调整。也许有些事情需要改变，但总的来说，我认为它们非常有益。

Paragraph 10: I don't love how he frames these things. I think that instead of having a more nuanced conversation about this particular thing and this particular example, he blankets things and people get scared and they're like, oh my gosh, you're right, we should stop doing vaccines for kids. That's very dangerous. That would be very bad for society. Be very bad for our kids. I think that we need to address that in more detail over time.

我不喜欢他的陈述方式。我认为，他应该更细致地讨论这个特定的事情和例子，而不是一概而论地把所有事情都涵盖在内。这会让人们感到害怕，他们会认为，“哦，天啊，你说得对，我们应该停止为孩子们接种疫苗。” 这非常危险。这对社会和我们的孩子都非常不利。我认为我们需要逐步详细地解决这个问题。

Paragraph 11: It's one of these hard things where you have to have a nuanced conversation to give people all the necessary depth and context to feel better informed, to make a better decision because there's always this kind of gripping fear that if something's off and I'm getting poisoned or I'm getting bad medicine or people are trying to make money off me, people are immediately react negatively and angrily and they want to resolve to a blanket position. I don't think that that's healthy.

这是一件棘手的事情，你需要有一次细致入微的对话，为人们提供所有必要的深度和背景，让他们感到更好地了解，做出更好的决定，因为总有这种令人担心的情况，如果出了点问题，我就会被毒害，或者我会得到不好的药物，或者有人试图从我这里赚钱，人们往往会立刻产生负面和愤怒的反应，想要解决一个笼统的问题。我认为这并不健康。

Paragraph 12: I'd love to have a deeper debate on that but the reason we didn't go into it is because we had limited time with him and we wanted to take our time kind of giving him a chance to talk about the overview of topics and getting his point of view across the set of topics that we generally thought were going to be relevant in the selection cycle.

第12段：我很乐意就这个问题进行更深入的辩论，但我们没有进行深入探讨的原因是因为我们和他见面的时间有限，我们希望花时间让他谈谈主题的概述，让他在我们认为与候选人选择周期相关的一系列主题上表达自己的观点。

Paragraph 1: That's two hours. We still have enough time. You could talk for two hours about vaccine.

这就是两个小时的时间。我们还有足够的时间。你可以谈论关于疫苗两个小时。

Paragraph 2: Could I address the conspiracy theorist point? Yeah. Sure. First of all, that label conspiracy theorist doesn't pack the punch that it used to. As you recall, anyone who thought the virus might have come from the Wuhan lab was once called a conspiracy theorist. If you believed that Fauci and the NIH were funding gain a function of research, that was dubbed a conspiracy theory. If you believe that cloth masked and do anything, that was a conspiracy theory. If you believe that 100 Biden was getting paid off by foreign governments, that was a conspiracy theory. This accusation just doesn't really pack the same punch.

我可以回应一下阴谋论者的观点吗？好的，当然可以。首先，现在用“阴谋论者”这个标签来指称某人已经没有了以前那么有份量了。就像你们所知道的，曾经有人认为病毒可能来自武汉实验室，就被称为阴谋论者。如果你相信福奇和美国国立卫生研究院在资助“功能增强研究”，也被认为是阴谋论。如果你认为布口罩没什么用，也被视作阴谋论。如果你相信亨特·拜登收到了外国政府的贿赂，也被认为是阴谋论。这种指称现在已经丧失了原来的影响力。

Paragraph 3: Not having a relationship with the Russians and this family meeting with the Russians multiple times. That's the look in the conspiracy theory, Jake. My point is it doesn't pack the same punch. In some cases, it's starting to become a badge of honor. That's one thing.

第三段：没有与俄罗斯人建立关系，但这个家庭多次与俄罗斯人会面。这是阴谋论的外貌，杰克。我的观点是，这没有产生同样的影响。在某些情况下，这甚至开始变成一种荣誉徽章。那是一件事。

Paragraph 4: The second thing is when you listen to him make his arguments, he's not just alleging certain things. He's laying out his evidence. He's connecting dots. He's explaining the causation. You can disagree with it.

第二件事是当你听他陈述论点时，他不仅仅是指控某些事情。他在展示证据，连接事实，解释因果关系。你可以不同意他的观点。

Paragraph 5: He is thinking in terms of causation. It made me think about something that Peter T01 said about founders being Asperger's where he flipped it on his head and said, what is it about our society that talks founders out of all of their contrarian ideas unless they are a little bit Asperger's. Interesting.

他在考虑因果关系。这让我想起Peter T01说过的关于创始人都有亚斯伯格综合症的话题。他将这一观点颠倒过来，问：“除非他们稍微有点亚斯伯格，否则为什么我们的社会总是不支持创始人的反传统思想？”这很有趣。

Paragraph 6: What is it about our political system and our media that talks people out of seeing causation unless they are a little bit of a conspiracy theorist? What I mean by that is look at San Francisco. All you have to do is walk down the street and you can see that things have gone totally off the rails and whatever we've done politically is not working.

第六段：我们的政治体系和媒体为什么总是让人们对因果关系产生怀疑，除非他们稍微有点阴谋论者的倾向？我的意思是，看看旧金山，你只需要走在街上就能看到一切已经彻底失控，无论我们在政治上做了什么都没有用。

Paragraph 7: And yet the voters in San Francisco just like completely block that out. They don't see any causation between the way they vote at the city level or at the state level and the policies that are manifest on our streets. They just don't see any causation there. And you can just play that movie over and over again.

第七段：然而，旧金山的选民似乎完全不理会这一点。他们看不到自己在市或州一级投票的方式与我们街道上体现的政策之间的因果关系。他们根本看不到这其中的因果关系。而且你可以一次又一次地播放这部电影。

Paragraph 8: Our elites don't see any causation between the way they ran the country and the election of Donald Trump. The fact that we hauled out our manufacturing in the Rust Belt by throwing open our markets to China exporting our jobs to China the way that we squandered all this money in the forever wars of the Middle East. Regardless of what your views are on those policies, it's pretty obvious to me that they help cause the rise of Donald Trump. And yet you just can't get the media to see any causation between the policies they endorse and the inevitable reaction to them.

我们的精英们并没有看到他们管理国家的方式和唐纳德·特朗普的当选之间的因果关系。事实是，我们通过向中国开放市场、将我们的制造业搬到“锈带”地区并将我们的工作岗位出口到中国，以及在中东的永久战争中浪费了所有这些钱。无论你对这些政策持有什么观点，我觉得很明显这些政策帮助导致了唐纳德·特朗普的崛起。然而，你就是无法让媒体看到他们支持的政策和必然的反应之间的因果关系。

Paragraph 9: And so the way I see this is that our political analysis certainly our mainstream media they're just completely bereft of seeing any causation between policies and the problems in our society. And so along comes RFK Jr. And he's willing to actually connect dots. Now you may not agree with all the dots he's connecting. But maybe it takes it the same way maybe it takes a little bit of an Asperger's founder to stick with their contrarian idea so they don't get talked out of it. Maybe it takes a guy like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. not to get talked out of these things that he believes some of which I think are just obviously true.

我认为，我们的政治分析和主流媒体都完全无法看出政策与社会问题之间的因果关系。然后RFK Jr.出现了，他愿意真正连接各种因果关系。你可能不同意他所连接的所有观点，但也许需要像某些特立独行的阿斯伯格创始人一样坚守自己的反对意见，以免被说服。可能需要像罗伯特·肯尼迪·朱尔回来一样的人坚定地坚持自己的信仰，有些观点我认为显然是正确的。

Paragraph 10: I thought one of the salient points he made was just hey listen farmer spends an awful lot on advertising. The media is dependent on that advertising. They don't seem to criticize it all that much. Maybe that's something we should look into. Now I don't think that like Pfizer is writing the script for Anderson Cooper. But you can be sure that if Pfizer didn't like something Anderson Cooper said they somebody they call it CNN and say something to and have a conversation about you know setting the record straight whatever how you would frame it speaking of CNN. Right.

第十段：我认为他提出的显著观点之一是：农民在广告上花费了很多钱。媒体依赖于这些广告，他们似乎不会过多批评这些广告。也许这是我们应该探究的事情。我不认为像辉瑞（Pfizer）这样的公司会为安德森·库珀（Anderson Cooper）写剧本。但你可以肯定，如果辉瑞不喜欢安德森·库珀说的某些话，他们会打电话给CNN，说些话并且讨论如何澄清事实，提出他们的立场。谈到CNN。

Paragraph 11: And don't leave that point before. I thought it was a really interesting part of the conversation when he mentioned that he had been friends way back with Roger Ailes. Yeah. Roger Ailes specifically told him. Yes. That they could not post certain or tell of I certain content. If it was too critical of farmer companies because they were the no one advertiser. Yeah.

第11段：而且不要忘记之前的那个点。当他提到他曾和罗杰·艾尔斯是老朋友时，我觉得这是谈话中非常有趣的一部分。是的，罗杰·艾尔斯特意告诉他，如果内容对农业公司太过批评，不能发布或讲述。因为农业公司是他们的主要广告商。是的。

Paragraph 12: And should farmer companies even be advertising. So then all of a sudden let's say it was a conspiracy theory or he is like way out there in terms of his belief. But the fact is it does bring up the point should we actually be letting farmer companies advertise on television or on news programs. Maybe they shouldn't be allowed to be on news for more. It's not like it's not like the consumer who watches the ads can go out and buy the drug. I guess you can subscribe by a doctor. They can ask their doctor about it. Yeah. Yeah.

在农业公司进行广告宣传是否合适呢？有人可能会认为这是一种谣言或者是一种极端信仰。但是，这确实引起了一个问题：我们是否应该允许农业公司在电视或新闻节目上进行广告宣传？也许他们不应该出现在新闻节目中。因为那些观看广告的消费者并不能直接去购买药品。我猜，购买药品需要通过医生进行订购。他们可以向医生咨询相关事宜。是的，没错。

Paragraph 1: Well speaking of CNN. There was an absolute train wreck of a presidential town hall with a moderator name.

说到CNN，他们最近有一个总统市政厅节目真是一场完全的灾难，主持人还搞错了名字。

Paragraph 2: Caitlin Collins. I don't recognize her. name. I don't know if she has a show on CNN. But I saw the clips from it.

“凯特琳·柯林斯”这个名字我不认识，也不知道她在CNN有没有节目。但是我看了她节目片段的视频。

Paragraph 3: I couldn't find the full debate. But my Lord was this. It's unbelievable. It's unbelievable. It was unbelievable.

我找不到完整的辩论。但是我的上帝，这是令人难以置信的。这太不可思议了。它真的是令人难以置信的。

Paragraph 4: He got a standing ovation. He absolutely owned her on every question. All of her questions were about January 6th. All of them are valid. But none of them were about running the country essentially.

他收到了全场起立的掌声。他在每个问题上都完全占了上风。她所有的问题都是关于1月6日的。这些问题都是合理的。但是实质上并没有关于如何运营国家的问题。

Paragraph 5: And he was hilarious, at least to this audience. And CNN's staffers are really upset that they did this. That they gave him that they platformed him, which shows you exactly where they stand.

他非常滑稽，至少对于这个观众来说是这样的。CNN的员工非常沮丧他们这样做了。他们给了他演讲平台，这清楚地表明了他们的立场。

Paragraph 6: They're upset. I guess they thought they could own him and they did. Did you guys see the part where he was talking about the trial? And he's like, and she has a cat named vagina.

他们很生气。我猜他们认为他们可以掌控他，而他们确实做到了。你们看到他谈论审判的那一部分了吗？他说，她有一只叫做阴道的猫。

Paragraph 7: Did you mean it was surreal? And I just thought to myself, is this going to be the next year and a half we're going to have these town halls?

你是说这感觉非常超现实吗？我自己想，我们会不会在接下来的一年半时间里持续举办这些城镇大会呢？

Paragraph 8: And then I thought, Oh, he's going to get elected. Is it true that EG and Carol has a cat named vagina? I have no idea. But it was that was a pretty vicious section.

然后我想，哦，他会当选的。EG和Carol 是否有一只名为"阴道"的猫，我不知道。但那是一段相当恶毒的话。

Paragraph 9: And then I got the sense that CNN's management wants this. This is like a ratings bananza for them. And I think they see really want him.

然后我有一种感觉，CNN的管理层希望这样。这对他们来说就像一个评级大丰收。我认为他们真的很想要他。

Paragraph 10: Freeberg said it. It's so true. He's so entertaining. I could not stop laughing. I watched him once again. And I was like, man, it's like one of your one of your old TV shows that you don't really remember watching a lot of it.

第10段：Freeberg 说了这句话，这是真的。他十分有趣。我笑得停不下来。我再次观看了他的表演。我感觉就像是看了一部很久以前的电视节目，虽然不太记得它有多少内容，但仍感到十分有趣。

Paragraph 11: It comes back on and you're like, he's so ridiculous. The things he says. It's true. When he first got elected, I was so afraid.

它重新启动了，你会觉得，他太荒谬了。他说的话真是这样。当他第一次当选时，我非常害怕。

Paragraph 12: And then you realize, this guy is just an entertainer really. He's a terrible politician. Bill Bar said that. Yeah. Did you see the bar interview? The bar clip that I shared is just bananas about Trump.

然后你意识到，这个人其实只是一个娱乐家。他是个糟糕的政治家。这是比尔·巴尔说的。是的。你看过巴尔的采访吗？我分享的那个剪辑对于特朗普来说实在是太疯狂了。

Paragraph 13: But so he's a showman and he's a great showman. He's entertaining. And you realize that he was, that's all he's ever really wanted to be. It was like famous and popular and on television. And he got all of those things and he took it to the most infinite level.

但他是一个表演家，而且是个很棒的表演家。他很有娱乐性。你会意识到，那一直是他真正想成为的。他想要成名、受欢迎，上电视。他得到了所有这些，而且把它们发挥到了极致。

Paragraph 14: What Bill Bar said was most insightful that it's chaos when he actually tries to get things done. He can't get things done.

第14段：比尔·巴尔所说的最为深刻的是，当他真正尝试去完成事情时，会出现混乱。他无法完成任务。

Paragraph 15: And he'll tell you all the things that you want to hear, that he wants to that you want to see get done. He did this to Peter Teele. And Peter Teele spoke about this publicly. So I'm not saying anything out of line here.

第15段：他会告诉你想听的一切，表达他希望你能看到实现的事情。他曾经这样对彼得·蒂勒。彼得·蒂勒也公开谈论过这件事情。所以我在这里说的并不过分。

Paragraph 16: I don't know if this is something that's on the record or not. But it was publicly stated that Peter was disappointed that Trump did not get the things done that he said he was going to get done.

第16段：我不知道这件事是否记录下来了。但公开表态说，彼得对特朗普未能完成他所说的事情感到失望。

Paragraph 17: And I think that's really what what he does is he incites. He entertains. He gets people engaged. He knows what you want to hear. He sells you on it.

第17段：我认为他所做的实际上就是激起情绪。他娱乐人们，让人们参与其中。他知道你想听什么，然后将你说服。

Paragraph 18: He cripples the establishment, whichever one feels treated poorly by that everyone feels held back by that everyone feels has taken something from them that isn't giving something to them.

他削弱了任何一个机构，无论谁感到受到了不公对待，感觉被压制，感觉被拿走了一些对他们不公的东西。

Paragraph 19: And then he says, you know what, I'm going to fix all that for you. And then you get excited by it. And then all of a sudden he doesn't actually deliver it.

第19段：然后他说，你知道吗，我要为你解决这一切。然后你会因此感到兴奋。然而突然间，他并没有真正兑现他的承诺。

Paragraph 20: And in four years of gone by and we've forgotten about it and he's come back in and he's kind of you know titillating again. So I think I think I think the reality is he's got a real shot at getting reelected here.

20号段落：四年过去了，我们已经忘记了它，他又回来了，又开始让人感到兴奋。因此，我认为他有很大的可能被重新选举。

Paragraph 21: Oh my god. Here's what I want to do. I'll go around the horn. I'll start with you, sir. I mean, he said January 6 was like a beautiful day.

天哪。我想这么做。我会沿着弧线走一圈。从你开始，先生。我是说，他说1月6日像是美好的一天。

Paragraph 22: He said that everybody in the Republican Party who said he lost the election is wrong. And that the election was in fact stolen. Like he literally doubled down on every single thing. Paragraph 23: Right. So at the end of this he gets a standing ovation in New Hampshire. So how did CNN pick that audience? Did they do that on purpose? Did they know that was going to be the outcome? Paragraph 24: But at the end of the day, after that does that increases chances of winning the Republican nomination and the presidency in your mind sacks? Yes, of course it does. Paragraph 25: Why? Look, well, look, I mean Donald Trump showed that he's a force of nature. He's a wrecking ball. He went into CNN's carefully laid trap where he's not just up against Caitlin Collins. Paragraph 26: Make no mistakes. You've got an earpiece in her ear with all of CNN's researchers and hosts and producers. They're all feeding her every attack behind. Yeah. Paragraph 27: Exactly. And he basically demolished her. He controlled the interview. He had the crowd laughing when he wanted them to laugh responding the way he wanted them to respond. Paragraph 28: And to the point now, where the staffers are like, oh my god, what do we do? AOC was basically, you know, ringing her hands about how? How could CNN platform him this way? Paragraph 29: So, so look, he gave no quarter. What's so ever? Like you said, he doubled down on everything. He tripled down. Paragraph 30: And he showed his ability to kind of bend reality to his will. So all the strengths. of Trump, that being said, I'm sure that Trump and his campaign were delighted with what happened last night, because I do think it makes him more likely to be the nominee. I think first and foremost, I think Republicans want a candidate who will fight the media and their fake narratives and lies.

第22段：他说，共和党的每个人都说他输掉了选举，都是错的。事实上，选举是被盗的。他确实对每一件事都再次强调了。第23段：对，所以在新罕布什尔州，他得到了起立的掌声。CNN是如何挑选观众的？他们故意这样做吗？他们知道结果会是什么吗？第24段：但最终，这是否增加了他在你看来竞选共和党提名和总统的机会？是的，当然是。第25段：为什么？看，唐纳德·特朗普表明了自己的力量。他是一股破坏力。他走进CNN精心设下的陷阱，不仅仅是与凯特琳·柯林斯对抗。第26段：毫不错失机会，她听筒里塞着CNN所有的研究员、主持人和制片人。他们都在背后指导她攻击。是的。第27段：完全正确。他基本上摧毁了她。他掌控了采访。他在想让人们笑的时候让人们笑，在他希望人们作出回应的时候作出回应。第28段：现在，员工们都在纠结，哦我的天啊，我们该怎么办？AOC基本上在为此烦恼。CNN会这样授予他平台吗？第29段：所以，看，他毫不手软。他对所有事情都再次强调。他三番五次地强调。第30段：他展示了他能够把现实弯曲到自己的意愿。因此，特朗普的所有优势都得到了展示。话虽如此，我相信特朗普和他的竞选团队对昨晚发生的事情感到高兴，因为我认为这使得他更可能成为候选人。我认为，首先，共和党人想要一个能够与媒体、虚假叙述和谎言作斗争的候选人。

Paragraph 31: No matter how many lies Trump tells, they think the media is the bigger liar. And they want someone who is willing to step in the lion's den and take them on. And he is incredibly adroit and quick on his feet. And DeSantis is imploding. Well, I wouldn't say that. He hasn't been in the justice. I would say he declined. So what would any of them do? Yeah. Just be fair. DeSantis clearly is the underdog. Okay, but just give the guy a chance because we haven't even seen what he can do yet. But there's no question that Trump showed an adroitness and a willingness to counter punch and fight back that they base their Republican base, definitely response to.

第31段：无论特朗普撒多少谎，他们认为媒体更加撒谎。他们需要一个愿意在狮子的巢穴里挑战他们的人。而他非常灵巧，反应快。而德桑蒂斯正在崩溃。好吧，我不这么认为。他还没有进入司法部门。我要说他是拒绝了。那么他们中的任何一个会做什么呢？没错，只要公正。德桑蒂斯显然是处于劣势的人。好了，但是给那个家伙一个机会，因为我们甚至还没有看到他能做些什么。但是毫无疑问，特朗普表现出了灵巧和对抗的意愿，他们的共和党基础绝对会回应。

Paragraph 32: Now, yeah. So we know that Trump is happy with the debate. I think the other party that is super happy with his debate is Biden and all of his people. Yeah. Because as much as that debate helped Trump in the Republican primary, it did nothing for him in the general. I don't think. Like you said, Jason, he doubled down on January six. The campaign ads write themselves. Okay, they're going to show footage of January six with a tear gas and the riots. Stop being beaten. People being shot. People pushing down the barricades. And they're going to do a narrative of voice over with Trump saying it was a beautiful day. The people there had love in their arms itself. It writes itself. And then he doubled down really strongly on brovie Wade. That was crazy. Being overturned.

现在，是的。我们知道特朗普对辩论感到高兴。我认为另一个非常高兴的是拜登和他的团队。因为虽然这场辩论帮助特朗普赢得了共和党初选，但在大选中对他没有任何帮助，我认为。就像你说的，杰森，他在1月6日事件上坚定了立场。竞选广告就开始了。他们将播放1月6日的片段，插入催泪瓦斯和骚乱、人们被击打、推倒路障、甚至射击的场景。同时，配以特朗普称它是美好的一天，那些人怀着爱的心在参与活动的旁白。它是天然呈现的。然后他又坚定了推翻罗伊诉韦德案的立场，这太疯狂了。

Paragraph 33: He's like, yeah, that was, I mean, I don't have his quote. I think it doesn't hurt him in the Republican primary, but it's, you know, it will lead to a campaign attack ad in the general. And there were other issues as well. Okay. So the Biden campaign is super happy right now because I think the only Republican he could beat is Trump. I think the reverse is true for Trump. I think the only Democrat who Trump could be it is Biden. I mean, they are both two of the most unpopular candidates in America in a general election. So they love the fact they're going to be facing each other.

他说：“是的，我觉得这个事情不会在共和党初选中影响他，但是在总统大选中，会导致一张攻击广告。还有其他问题。” Biden的竞选团队很高兴，因为他认为唯一可以打败的共和党人是特朗普。而特朗普则是只有拜登可以击败的民主党人。两个人都是美国总统选举中最不受欢迎的候选人之一，他们很开心将要面对彼此的情况。

Paragraph 34: But you know, who doesn't is the American people. Two-thirds American people don't want this choice. They say they are already fatigued by it. And they're only going to get more fatigued by it because I think for the next, like you said, 18 months, we're going to have the Trump show with him taking on the media. And that plays into Biden's hands because Biden doesn't need to campaign. He'll just let Trump and the media beat each other up. He'll do a Rose Garden campaign where once a week he goes in front of the microphones and responds to whatever Trump's latest outrage is.

不过，你知道的，不同意这种选择的是美国人民。三分之二的美国人民不想要这样的选择。他们说他们已经疲惫了。而且他们只会变得更加疲惫，因为我认为在接下来的，像你说的那样，18个月中，我们将会看到特朗普秀和他与媒体的互相攻击。这对拜登来说是个好事，因为他不需要竞选。他只需进行一次玫瑰园竞选，每周一次，他会站在麦克风前回应特朗普最新的丑闻。

Paragraph 1: He doesn't have the vigor to campaign and he won't. And then we'll just see where the chips land. I think that it's it's quite possible here that after 18 months of Trump and the media beating each other up, the American people just say, you know what, this Biden guy is totally senile, but I'm like so tired of the Trump show. I've got Trump fatigue again. I'm just going to have to go with Biden. And I think this is how Biden gets reelected. This is a disaster for American. The fact that we are putting Biden, who's in clearly incognitive decline. and Trump as the two candidates again, the two candidates nobody wants makes me think this is just like a complete disaster for America. Can we not find two other candidates?

他没有精力去竞选，也不会去竞选。然后我们就等着看如何吧。我认为，在特朗普和媒体互相抨击18个月后，美国人民可能会说：“你知道吗，这个拜登老兄完全老迈了，但我对特朗普的表现已经太累了，我只好选拜登了。” 我认为这就是拜登再次当选的原因。这对美国来说是一场灾难。我们将拜登和特朗普作为两名候选人，这两个没有一个人喜欢，让我认为这对美国来说是一场彻底的灾难。我们难道不能找到其他两个候选人吗？

Paragraph 2: Trump, what did you think coming out of his stand up special on CNN? I think that I'm more surprised by the fact that the big Republican mega donors have taken a big step back away from DeSantis. I thought that if the money train on the Republican side picked DeSantis, that it would be very difficult for Trump to overcome it. But he's managed to somehow fade that bullet too. He's like Neo in the matrix. It's like, you have these guys shooting bullets at this guy and he just keeps somehow finding a way to evade them. But this week, I was just going to say, well, Schwartzman, step back, Ken Griffin basically has gone silent. So there's a lot of guys that came close to him.

川普，你觉得他在CNN上的表演怎么样？我认为我更惊讶的是，大的共和党捐助者已经大步后退，远离德桑蒂斯。我原本以为，如果共和党那边的资金列车选择德桑蒂斯，那么川普要克服这个困难会非常困难。但他成功地闪躲了这颗子弹。他就像《黑客帝国》里的尼奥一样。就像，你有一些人在开枪打这个人，但他总是设法找到一种躲避的方法。但这一周，我只想说，施瓦茨曼后退了，肯·格里芬基本上变得沉默了。所以有很多人接近他。

Paragraph 3: And this is what I've maintained, which is I think DeSantis ages poorly. He's best before you actually spend time with him. And the more time people seem to spend, and again, this is just evidence by these big Republican mega donors, they don't seem to be running towards this guy. They seem to be at least saying we're going to hedge your breaching. Yeah, they're waiting.

我一直认为德桑蒂斯会衰老得很快，只有在你真正与他相处之前他才最好。而且似乎越多人花时间接触他，就会越不喜欢他。这个观点还得到了共和党大型捐款人的支持，他们并不急着支持德桑蒂斯，而是想要等待更多信息。

Paragraph 4: Friedberg, any thoughts? And then I'll go back to you. I went for like 10 minutes. The other Friedberg going, then you go, Friedberg. And he thoughts on it in terms of is this make him more electable? Do you think he's going to win? Where's your gut telling? The CNN thing? Yeah. Yes. Post CNN. Do you think he's going to win? Do you think he beats Biden?

“弗里德伯格，你有什么想法？接下来我会回到你那里。我只离开了10分钟。其他的弗里德伯格已经发表了看法，现在该轮到你了，弗里德伯格。你认为他更有可能当选吗？你认为他会赢吗？你的直觉告诉你什么？CNN的事情？是的。是的。在CNN之后，你认为他会赢吗？你认为他能战胜拜登吗？”

Paragraph 5: The crazy polling data is that Biden had 20% of the votes go into RFK Jr. who's like nobody, no one knows candidate, and he's beating a sitting president in his own party. So that says a lot about how much support Biden has. And I think that Trump is going to be pretty appealing as the anti-biden candidate. I mean, Biden was the anti-Trump candidate and now Trump's the anti-biden candidate. And right now he looks like he's dynamic and he was a big shift, I think. RFK Jr. feels a lot like a Trump candidate to me too. I mean, some of the positioning and the statements and the way he talks and being anti-establishment, he could also have that appeal.

令人惊讶的民意调查数据显示，拜登获得了20%的选票，投给了像没人知道的候选人RFK Jr.，而且他击败了自己政党的现任总统。这说明了拜登拥有多少支持。我认为，特朗普将作为反拜登候选人非常吸引人。我的意思是，拜登曾经是反特朗普的候选人，现在特朗普是反拜登的候选人。现在，他看起来非常有活力，是一个重大的转变。RFK Jr. 在我看来也很像特朗普的候选人。我的意思是，他的一些立场和陈述方式，以及他的反建制主义，也具有吸引力。

Paragraph 6: I think there's a non-zero chance Biden actually doesn't run for a reelection at this point. Hmm. Play that out. That's a really scary scenario because I think that's how we get a president Newsom. Listen, I mean, Newsom is warming up in the bullpen right now and he's not just hanging out back there and, you know, spending Shaw. He's pitching fastballs very noisily. He's been running TV ads. He's been going to Florida. He's been picking fights, you know, well outside of his state. He is basically telling the Democratic Party put me in the game coach and he's just waiting for the signal to go. He needs to know from Democratic Party insiders and the establishment that he can go. He doesn't want to risk throwing away his career challenging Biden.

我认为现在有一定可能性拜登实际上不会竞选连任。嗯，想象一下，这是一个非常可怕的情景，因为我认为这就是我们得到纽森总统的方式。听着，我的意思是，纽森现在正在预备区等待，他并不是只是闲逛，花费时间。他正在快速投球，并且非常明显地在做出行动。他一直在放电视广告，还去了佛罗里达，并且在他的州外面挑起了争端。他基本上告诉民主党人：教练，请让我上场，他只是等待去的信号。他需要来自民主党内部人士和主流的许可，他才会行动。他不想冒险挑战拜登而毁掉自己的事业。

Paragraph 7: But if Biden becomes too weak to run and he gets the signal to go, he'll go and he can raise a lot of money and I'm not saying. No, but explain. Sorry. Can you can you guys just explain both of you like how does that actually like what do you guys think happens like there's a press conference that where Biden says he's retiring?

但是如果拜登变得太虚弱无法参选并且他收到信号要退选，他会退选，他可以筹集很多钱，我不是说他一定会这样做，但是我要解释一下。抱歉，能不能请你们两个解释一下，实际情况是怎样的，你们觉得会发生什么，比如拜登会召开新闻发布会宣布退选？

Paragraph 8: I think he said after careful thought and consideration I've made the decision that at my age I'd like to spend more time with my family and not continue this hefty responsibility and I'd love to see someone else take the mantle and I think that that will result, you know, from a series of polls that will indicate that he may not have a shot if he continues this campaign. I think that I'm not saying that's a certainty. I think that's a non-zero chance right now that that scenario plays out.

我认为他经过深思熟虑后说，“我已经做出了决定，在我这个年龄，我想花更多的时间和家人在一起，不再继续承担这个沉重的责任。我希望看到其他人接手，并且我认为这将由一系列民意调查结果决定，如果他继续竞选，就可能没有机会成功。我并不是说这是必然的，但我认为这种情况有一定的可能性。”

Paragraph 1: When that does play out to sexist point it's probably not just Newson, but there's probably half a dozen and likely a dozen folks that pop their head up and want to get not just kind of have a real run at the presidency on the Democratic side, but probably end up saying I want to heighten people's awareness of me and so on and they all run on that on that ticket.

当性别歧视真正发生时，那可能不仅仅是纽森一个人，还可能有五六个，甚至十几个人站出来，不仅仅是想竞选民主党总统候选人，而且还想让更多人关注自己，并通过这种方式获得胜利。

Paragraph 2: But the DNC might be having a real tough conversation in the next couple of months about how Biden is polling and whether he really is the right candidate to have on the ticket.

但是民主党全国委员会可能在接下来的几个月中面临一个真正艰难的讨论，讨论的问题是拜登的民意测验情况以及他是否真的适合作为民主党候选人参选。

Paragraph 3: Let's see. Let me give you a historical example. I mentioned this I think when our FKJ was on the pod, but LBJ was the sitting Democratic president in 1968 and he went into the New Hampshire primary and he won the New Hampshire primary but not by a big enough margin.

让我们来看一个历史案例。我想我在我们上一次的对话中提到过这个例子，1968年，时任民主党总统林登·约翰逊参加了新罕布什尔州初选并赢得了胜利，但是胜利的幅度不够大。

Paragraph 4: A few weeks later he announced he was leaving the race because of health reasons. But the specific challenger who helped knocked him out of New Hampshire was Gene McCarthy and then after that happened Bobby Kennedy got in the race.

几周之后，他宣布因为健康原因离开竞选。但是，最终在新罕布什尔州击败他的是基因·麦卡锡，之后罗伯特·肯尼迪加入了竞选。

Paragraph 5: So we could have a situation here where it's Bobby Kennedy Jr. is you know initially playing the Gene McCarthy role of being kind of the anti-war protest candidate who helps knock Biden out of the race and then who knows. I mean he could become... He could come, Judge Gavin Newsom. They're going to want to come in into the race at that point.

在这种情况下，我们可能会看到Bobby Kennedy Jr.扮演Gene McCarthy的角色，成为反战抗议的候选人，帮助淘汰拜登，然后谁知道呢？他可能会成为......他可能会和加文·纽森法官一起参加比赛，他们会想加入比赛。

Paragraph 6: But remember the thing that happened in early 1968 that caused LBJ to leave the race is you had the TET offensive and Cronkite got back from Vietnam saying the war cannot be won and then at that point it was like game over. Well look this Ukrainian counteroffensive, Zalinsky just announced today that they need more time.

然而请记得，早在1968年发生的事情导致了林登约翰逊退出了总统竞选。当时越南爆发了TET攻势，克朗凯特从越南回来说这场战争无法赢得，那时这场竞选就像结束了一样。现在看这场乌克兰反攻，扎连斯基今天宣布他们需要更多时间。

Paragraph 7: So we've been hearing for months if not a year that you're going to have a big Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring of summer of this year and Ukraine is going to win this war and instead it looks like it's being destroyed. Ukraine is. So this war is turning into a debacle. I think it could be an even worse debacle by the end of the year.

我们已经听了几个月甚至一年，你们将会在今年春夏进行一场重大的乌克兰反攻战，并且乌克兰将会赢得这场战争，但相反的，现在乌克兰正在被摧毁。因此，这场战争正在变成一场惨败，我认为在年底之前，它可能会变得更加糟糕。

Paragraph 8: The economy has a banking crisis going on. It's turning into a big fiasco. So I think it's very possible that Biden could announce that it's time for him to step aside and you could see the floodgates open for Newsom or J.B. Pritzker some like that. However let me just say this.

经济正在经历一场银行业危机，这正在变成一场大灾难。因此，我认为拜登很可能会宣布是时候让他让位了，你可能会看到新生或普里茨克等人大举涌入。然而，让我说这句话。

Paragraph 9: I think the odds of Biden leaving the race went down significantly as a result of last night because all of the political people around Biden are saying we know how to win this thing.

我认为随着昨晚的结果，拜登退出竞选的几率显著降低了，因为围绕拜登的所有政治人士都在表示我们知道如何赢得这场竞选。

Paragraph 10: We just A.B. tested the strategy in the midterms. Remember we had three quarters of the American people in the midterms think that we were ready to recession and the country was on the wrong track and the out of power parties were supposed to gain seats and the red wave turned into a puddle.

我们刚刚在中期选举中进行了A.B.测试该战略。请记住，在那次中期选举中，三分之一的美国民众认为我们已准备好面对经济衰退，全国走向错误轨道，以及在野党应该获得更多议席，但是预想中的“红色浪潮”最终只停留在表面不起多大作用。

Paragraph 11: Why? Because Biden's strategy of saying democracy was on the ballot and running as January 6th. It actually worked. I'm not saying I bought that argument but enough independence did. Independence ended up breaking for Biden and the Democrats Republicans didn't but independence did.

为什么呢？因为拜登的策略是宣称民主制度岌岌可危，并将1月6日视为选举的重要日期。这个策略实际上取得了成效。我并不是说我相信这个论点，但足够多的独立选民相信了。独立选民最终支持了拜登和民主党，而共和党并没有得到这个支持。

Paragraph 12: So independence have bought that argument in the midterms in Trump. Again if he's the nominee they're going to run that same playbook.

第12段：因此，在中期选举中，独立派买了这个观点，支持川普。如果他成为提名人，他们会采用同样的策略。

Paragraph 13: Now it's not guaranteed to work. I think this thing's going to be a nail bider. I think it's going to be a toss up if it's Biden versus Trump. But I think that Biden's people have to feel very good about this matchup because they feel like they already know how to run the skimping.

现在，结果并不能保证。我认为这会是一场胶着战。如果拜登对垒特朗普，那就看运气了。但是我认为拜登的支持者一定会对这场比赛感到很有信心，因为他们觉得自己已经知道如何进行有限制的竞选了。

Paragraph 14: This is what he said about Roe v. Wade. It was such a great victory. I mean can you imagine how that's going to play with women voters?

这是他对罗伊诉韦德案所言的话。那是一个伟大的胜利。我是说，你能想象那将如何在女性选民中产生影响吗？

Paragraph 15: They're just going to be like yeah no it was not a great victory. You took away our right to choose for ourselves. Well definitely democratic women voters will not like it but there's a lot of Republican women voters that that will support that state here.

第十五段：他们只会说“是啊，这不是一个伟大的胜利。”你剥夺了我们自己选择的权利。确实，民主党的女性选民不会喜欢这个结果，但是有许多共和党的女性选民会支持这个州。

Paragraph 16: Let me give you this 30 percent. Let me give you this data of the country. So take a look at this. I don't think you're right Jason. I just shared with you kind of the Reuters polling data the most recent one.

第16段：让我给你这30%的数据，了解一下这个国家的情况。来看看这个数据。我不认为你是正确的，Jason。我只是与你分享了最近的路透社民意调查数据。

Paragraph 17: And the number one issue at 24 percent of likely voters that they care about is the economy. 24 percent. Yeah. Number two is crime at 14 percent. Number three is immigration at 9 percent.

第17段： 24%的可能选民最关心的问题是经济问题。排名第二的是犯罪问题，占14%。排名第三的是移民问题，占9%。

Paragraph 18: Number four is inequality at 6 percent and on and on and on. Only when you get down to like number 10 you get to abortion which comes in at 3 percent. 2 percent of Democrats 1 percent of Republicans.

第18段：第四项是不平等，占6％以上。直到排名第十才提到堕胎，仅占3％。民主党中有2％支持，而共和党中仅有1％支持。

Paragraph 19: Yeah but what is the margin of the election? Well I don't think that that's the issue that breaks it. I think there's other things that there's significant differences on particularly around crime and immigration inequality that are polling much higher in terms of importance to likely voters.

这段话的意思是，选举胜利的比较指标是多少并不是最关键的问题。在选民中，犯罪、移民和不平等等其他因素比这个更重要。特别是犯罪和移民问题在民意调查中得到了更高的支持率。

Paragraph 1: But do they drive turnout? Like abortion does.

它们是否能促进投票率？就像堕胎一样。

Paragraph 2: I don't know. I'm just I'm just thinking of these numbers. It's like you know one. one to 3 percent of people saying it matters to them is not that significant.

我不知道。我只是在考虑这些数字。就像你知道的那样，只有1到3%的人表示这很重要，并不是非常显著。

Paragraph 3: I think these other topics are going to be very divisive and very different very polar difference. And what people say in a poll and what people turn out to vote for like for some people that is a major issue.

我认为这些其他话题会极具分裂性，非常不同，形成极端差异。而人们在民意调查中所说的和人们实际投票支持的可能会有很大的差别，对于一些人来说，这是一个重要问题。

Paragraph 4: But who knows? I think it's a toss up basically. Look like I said I think the only candidate that Biden could be is Trump and Biden's probably the only sitting president that Trump can be. So I mean again they're both in poll nationally in the mid 30s and this is the choice we have.

但是谁知道呢？我认为这基本上是一种抉择。就像我说的，我认为只有特朗普是拜登可能的对手，而拜登可能是特朗普唯一可能击败的现任总统。所以，他们两个全国民调都在中30%左右，这就是我们的选择。

Paragraph 5: I got to give sacks as red meat. I saw these Republicans are going on a revenge tour here to go after the Biden family. They said they would and they have. So the oversight House Oversight Committee reveals I guess nine Biden family members received wire transfers from foreign nationals by shell corporations and they don't have any connections to Biden.

第五段：我得提供真相作为红肉。我发现这些共和党人正在进行一次报复之旅，去攻击拜登家族。他们说过会这么做，现在他们就在这么做了。所以，监察众议院的委员会透露，我猜测有九名拜登家族成员通过外国国家的壳公司收到了电汇，但他们与拜登没有任何联系。

Paragraph 6: We know that Hunter was securing the bag all over the planet. He's clearly a grifter. I don't think it was going to doubt about that. What's the truth here and how much evidence do they have? Because this is obviously a partisan thing just like there were partisan things on the other side when they were investigating Trump.

我们知道亨特在全球范围内都在谋取利益，他显然是个欺诈者，这一点无需怀疑。但问题在于真相是什么，他们有多少证据呢？因为这显然是个有争议的问题，就像调查特朗普时出现的争议一样。

Paragraph 7: So how do you look at this information this revelation to keep they're using this like Biden cried crime family meme. Do you think this is actually evidence of something? Where's it just another rich family with a bunch of LLCs?

那么，你如何看待这些信息，这些披露内容，以保持他们使用拜登哭泣犯罪家族的模因？你认为这实际上是某种证据吗？还是只是另一个拥有一堆有限责任公司的富裕家族？

Paragraph 8: Another rich family wait how do they get rich? Good question. The candidates were a rich family but the Biden's were not a rich family. So how do they get rich? Their only business is they don't have money here. They don't know how much money is actually here and how it's being well whatever it is they have.

另一个富裕家庭，他们如何变得富有？这是一个好问题。候选人中有一个家庭很富裕，但拜登家并不富裕。那么他们是如何变得富有的呢？他们唯一的商业是没有钱。他们不知道这里实际上有多少钱，以及它是如何被使用的，但无论怎样，他们拥有了财富。

Paragraph 9: It's not read meat for me. I just think the media should have done this job investigating the story properly and what this investigation has turned up is that there's a lot of members of the Biden family.

对我来说并不是什么红肉。我只是认为媒体应该认真调查这个故事，而这次调查发现拜登家族中有很多成员涉案。

Paragraph 10: I think they're up to like 10 or 12 or something who received payments flowing from foreign governments. No one can tell you what any of those people did in exchange for the money. It does appear to be an influence peddling operation.

我认为他们已经有10到12个人从外国政府获得了资金。没有人能告诉你这些人为这笔钱做了什么。看起来这像是一个谋取影响力的行动。

Paragraph 11: I don't know whether that's technically influence peddling operation. So people were giving money. Again the point is that why would you give money to members of the Biden family? It presumably for some sort of access to the person who's been a Washington for 50 years.

第11段：我不知道那是否严格属于拜访权之类的活动。但有人给了钱。关键是，为什么要给拜登家族成员钱呢？可能是为了获得这位在华盛顿待了50年的人的某种接触机会。

Paragraph 12: Did they know who gave the money? Is it China? Is it Ukraine? Do they have that data? Well I think we know about Burisma which is basically a Ukrainian. Yeah and then I think China is another one.

他们知道是谁给的钱吗？是中国吗？是乌克兰吗？他们有这些数据吗？我想我们知道Burisma基本上是一个乌克兰的公司。然后我想中国是另一个出资方。

Paragraph 13: Now I don't know what the quid pro quo is for that money but I wonder if this is like the crack in or if this is actually reality because they seem to be short on actual facts. I think they got a lot there but I mean they're putting out all these reports but listen I think to me the actually the bigger story or the bigger scandal is just more details on the way that the security state wrote that fake letter basically calling the Hunter Biden story Russian disinformation.

现在我不知道那笔钱的交换条件是什么，但我想知道这是否像是一个潜入或者这就是事实，因为他们似乎缺乏实际的证据。我认为他们得到了很多东西，但是他们发布了所有这些报告，但是听着，我认为对我来说，更大的故事或更大的丑闻就是有关安全国家写假信的更多细节，基本上称亨特·拜登的故事是俄罗斯的不实信息。

Paragraph 14: There's an email now that just came out where Mike Morell is corresponding with John Brennan and Morell specifically says we're creating the letter to give Biden a talking point in the debate. They're the former CI directors right?

第14段：现在有一封电子邮件，迈克·莫雷尔正在与约翰·布伦南通信，莫雷尔明确表示我们正在撰写这封信，为拜登在辩论中提供说辞。他们是前中央情报局局长，对吗？

Paragraph 15: Yeah exactly. Both of them were CI directors at different points. So there's no question now that that letter where 51 security state officials claimed that the Hunter Biden story is Russian disinformation that was all basically a political dirty trick and dirty tricks happen but I don't think the CIA should be involved.

是的，没错。他们两个都曾经是不同时间担任了中央情报局(CI)的总监。因此现在毋庸置疑的是，那封信件中51位安全国家官员声称亨特·拜登故事是俄罗斯的谣言，这实际上是一种政治的肮脏把戏。不过肮脏把戏必然会存在，但我不认为中央情报局应该参与其中。

Paragraph 16: That's the thing. I don't think the the branches of our government should be involved in helping to get any candidate. These guys weren't even in government. They're former but former yeah. They're really related.

事情就是这样，我认为我们政府的不同部门不应该协助任何候选人的竞选活动。这些人甚至都不在政府中，他们是前政府官员，但是确实有关系。

Paragraph 17: So just to be clear it wasn't like the CIA. They could you have the the security clearances. But it's not the CIA did this. These are former CIA folks. They actually Morell needed the approval of the CIA.

这段话的意思是：要清楚地说明，这个组织不是中央情报局(CIA)。他们可以获得安全审批，但这不是CIA的工作。这些人都是前CIA员工。实际上，Morell需要CIA的批准。

Paragraph 18: That was another thing that came out. That's what bothers me more than anything is I do not think our permanent government, especially security agencies should be involved in partisan politics. They really need to stay out. That is election meddling. That bothers me.

第18段：另一个问题浮现了出来，那就是比起其他任何事情，我更担心的是，我认为我们的永久政府，尤其是安全机构，不应该参与党派政治。他们真的需要保持中立。这是选举干涉，这令我感到不安。

Paragraph 19: That's a form of corruption that I think is even worse than monetary payments.

这种类型的腐败，我认为比金钱支付更加严重。

Paragraph 1: Can you tell us about your trip to the Middle East? What have you been doing there?

你能给我们讲讲你去中东旅行的经历吗？你在那里做些什么？

Paragraph 2: So our bestie raggersoner was coming here and we were out the poker game a couple of weeks ago. Maybe a month ago and he said he was going and I've always wanted to come to UAE and I've never seen Dubai or Abu Dhabi and so I said yeah I'd love to go with you and we did a couple speaking gigs.

我们最好的朋友raggersoner来到了这里，几个星期或一个月前我们刚刚玩了一次扑克游戏。他说他要来，而我一直想来阿联酋，但从未见过迪拜或阿布扎比，所以我说我很想和你一起去，于是我们一起去了，还参加了几个演讲活动。

Paragraph 3: Where are you staying? So four seasons in Ritz, four seasons in Abu Dhabi and the Ritz here in Dubai and I was just going to do these three speaking gigs a podcast and isn't I have seen Dubai incredible.

你住在哪里呢？我在利兹四季、阿布扎比四季和迪拜的利兹酒店住过，我只是为这三次演讲和一个播客而来到这里，这里的迪拜让我感到非常不可思议。

Paragraph 4: Have you been in the financial district here? Yeah. It's all been built in the last 10 years. I would say generally speaking what I'm super impressed about and it's not a fundraising trip.

你来过这里的金融区吗？是的。它在过去的10年中全部建设完成。我会说总的来说，我印象最深刻的不是集资之旅。

Paragraph 5: I was just going but then one of your former employees, Chimoff, set me up with a bunch of meetings because it's like okay there's a lot of people who want to meet you. So I'm doing like maybe a dozen meetings or so and there is a real this is a very progressive place that the UAE of all the and Dubai.

第五段：我本来只是走过去，但你们以前的员工Chimoff给我安排了一堆会议，因为好像有很多人想见我。所以我参加了大约十二个会议，这个地方是阿联酋和迪拜最为进步的地方之一。

Paragraph 6: Obviously is very progressive and so it reminds me of like you know Silicon Valley in the early days where everybody is doing something and it's incredibly cosmopolitan.

显然，这非常进步，让我想起早期的硅谷，那时每个人都在做些事情，而且非常国际化。

Paragraph 7: There's only 500,000 nationals but there's 10 million people here. So there are people than any other language in Dubai. Yeah I mean the number of people here from all around the world is bonkers and then everybody's working on something. Paragraph 8: Everybody's got a project and the people are delightful. Did you go to the French restaurant? I told you about in Abu Dhabi. I did. It's quite nice.

第七段：这里只有50万本国人，但在这里生活的有1000万人。因此，在迪拜，使用任何一种语言的人都比其他地方都多。是啊，我的意思是来自世界各地的人数是惊人的，每个人都在从事某些事情。第八段：每个人都有自己的项目，人们都很友善。你去我之前跟你说过的阿布扎比的法国餐厅了吗？我去了，还不错。

Paragraph 9: Did you get the rib eye? Did you get the rib eye? Yeah we had like a family style thing so I didn't get the rib eye but it was exceptional. The food's exceptional. Paragraph 10: It's just like incredibly cosmopolitan. It's like going to New York you know or London and they are there's a very unique moment in time right now.

第9段：你点了肋眼牛排吗？你点了肋眼牛排吗？是的，我们有像家庭式的餐点，所以我没有点肋眼牛排，但它非常好吃。这里的食物非常出色。第10段：这里就像是非常国际化的，就像是在去纽约或伦敦一样，现在正处于非常独特的时刻。

Paragraph 11: Sax when you go to Abu Dhabi and you stay at the four seasons in the ADGM go to this French restaurant and order the rib eye. It is a top five steak I've ever had. Top five. And I've been there. I never went to Italy. So delicious. So delicious. So delicious.

第11段：当你去阿布扎比并入住位于ADGM的四季酒店时，去这家法国餐厅点一份肋眼牛肉。它是我吃过的前五名的牛排。前五名哦。而且我真的去过那里。我从未去过意大利，但太美味了。太美味了。太美味了。

Paragraph 12: And in Dubai do not stay at the Ritz and I have seen I have seen incredible but the Ritz sucks. State the Bulgari hotel. Beautiful. Just beautiful.

在迪拜，不要住在丽兹（Ritz）酒店，我曾经去过，不可思议的是，这家酒店很糟糕。相反，不妨考虑住在宝格丽（Bulgari）酒店。它太美了，真的非常美。

Paragraph 13: But there's a very unique moment in time. I literally came down the elevator at the four seasons and I met four or five people from Silicon Valley in the lobby.

但是在一个非常独特的时刻，我从四季酒店的电梯里出来，在大厅里遇见了四五个来自硅谷的人。

Paragraph 14: And then I came out of dinner and there was a table of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. It is I mean it's basically like going to the Rosewood in Abu Dhabi.

第14段：后来我吃完晚餐出来，看到一桌硅谷企业家和风险投资家。这就像去阿布扎比的瑰丽木酒店一样。

Paragraph 15: But what a statement that is like the US has tapped out. We are like broke. That's I think basically they are the way it's been explained to me is they believe they have 20 years 30 years to convert the oil economy into a technology capital allocator economy.

但这样的表态就像美国已经走到了尽头，我们就像是破产了一样。我认为，基本上他们的想法是，他们相信需要20-30年的时间，将石油经济转变为科技资本分配经济。

Paragraph 16: And so they want to make evergreen funds to invest. They haven't had a chance to invest in venture capital because most venture capital there weren't that many. They were fully allocated and there was no opportunity now with what's happened in the United States in this pullback and sort of the cycle starting over again.

因此，他们想要成立永续基金进行投资。由于那里的创投资本并不是很多，他们没有机会进行创投投资。这些创投资本已经全部配置完毕，而现在随着美国市场的回落和周期重新开始，也没有机会进行投资了。

Paragraph 17: I think there's an opportunity for them to invest in some funds and start relationships. And then you know we've had a long talk here about human rights in different countries and it's not a monolith over here.

我认为他们有机会投资一些基金并建立关系。接着，我们在这里进行了长时间的探讨，关于不同国家的人权问题，并且这里并不是单一的整体。

Paragraph 18: I mean I don't know who needs to hear that exactly but there there's these countries are very different. Very different. I'm sure they appreciate your lectures on that subject.

18段：我的意思是我不知道确切的谁需要听到这个，但这些国家非常不同。非常不同。我相信他们会感激你对这个主题的演讲。

Paragraph 19: I actually you know what's interesting we didn't have lectures on it but we had I've had multiple conversations about these issues. I enjoy your lectures on this pod.

第19段：实际上，你知道什么很有趣，我们没有听过这方面的讲座，但我有过多次关于这些问题的对话。我很喜欢你在这个播客上的讲座。

Paragraph 20: I don't lecture about it. I think these are important issues that people discuss and the serious thing is a number of these countries are majority young people and they are reforming very quickly and rights are changing and so the question is for you know all of us and for the world is do we collaborate and you know support as they you know become more liberal and become more tolerant and they you know become more western basically and young people it's very western here and the parties going on here are pretty much like the parties I attended in L.A. or New York and so I think actually we're probably not as at least UAE and a couple of countries here are not as disparate as like we what might think.

我不会过多讲解此事。我认为这些是人们需要讨论的重要问题。事实上，有很多这样的国家都是由年轻人组成的，他们在快速地进行着改革，他们的权利发生了改变。问题在于对于我们每个人以及全世界来说，我们是否要合作并支持他们成为更加自由和更加宽容的社会。这些国家的年轻人已经非常西化，这里的派对几乎和我在洛杉矶或纽约参加的派对一样。所以实际上，至少阿联酋和这里的其他一些国家并没有我们想象中那么不同。

Paragraph 21: I'm glad you did the trip because I'm glad you're talking like that that there isn't an us versus them point of view you know visiting and seeing the culture and the intention of the people within the culture super important and I think it's good that you did it so good to hear.

我很高兴你去旅行了，因为我很高兴你的话语中没有我们和他们之间的对立观点。你知道，参观并了解文化以及文化内部人民的意图是非常重要的，我认为你这样做是很好的，真的很好听。

Paragraph 1: I wanted to share the video that these guys did but let's do it next week.

我想分享这些人制作的视频，但让我们下周再做吧。意思是暂时不分享，推迟到下周再做。

Paragraph 2: I think it's really it's worth seeing the Valencia one, no the Lord of the Rings one that this guy did which is amazing.

我认为值得一看的是瓦伦西亚那个，而不是那个家伙制作的《指环王》版本，后者太棒了。

Paragraph 3: Wait, what? This will order the rings video now? Not with us, not with us. Jake help. I don't want to watch it.

等等，什么？这会现在订购《戒指》视频吗？不是跟我们一起的，不是跟我们一起的。杰克帮帮忙。我不想看它。

Paragraph 4: Okay, where would I want to watch that? Yeah, thank you Lb, you're right. I agree. I want to watch the Valencia video for the third time. Did you see that?

好的，我该去哪里观看呢？是啊，谢谢Lb，你说得对。我同意。我想再看一遍瓦伦西亚的视频。你看到了吗？

Paragraph 5: Yeah, I took an outtake from the guys' video on Lord of the Rings. We'll put the link in the show notes, but this guy made this incredible AI generated Wes Anderson does Lord of the Rings, oh I just see that. Did you see that? It's amazing and the clip I'm using today as a background is an outtake from the trailer!

是的，我是从那些人的《指环王》视频中选出来的一段片段。我们会将链接放在节目注释中，但这个家伙制作了一个令人难以置信的人工智能生成的 Wes Anderson 版本的《指环王》视频，哦，我刚刚看到了。你看到了吗？真是太棒了，而我今天要用的片段是从预告片中选出来的！

Paragraph 6: Did you see it? Sex, I don't want to watch it.

你看到它了吗？性爱，我不想看。

Paragraph 7: Oh my god, it's so funny! The guy is incredible! But I mean the creativity and the potential with AI, it's just so evident. This guy talks about it on his website and on his Twitter feed; he did it in a couple of days. A lot of generative tools were integrated to make this possible. It's an amazing two-minute piece of art that I think really speaks to the creativity being unleashed with AI again. Going back to this point about it not just being about job reduction and reductionism but it's really about unleashing new potential that we didn't envision before.

哦，天啊，这太有趣了！这个家伙太不可思议了！但我的意思是，人工智能的创造力和潜力是如此显而易见。这个家伙在他的网站和Twitter上谈到了它；他只用了几天时间。很多生成工具被整合在一起才使这成为可能。这是一个令人惊叹的两分钟艺术品，我认为它真正展示了人工智能再次释放创造力的能力。回到这一点，这不仅仅是关于减少工作和还原论，而是真正释放我们以前没有想象过的新潜力。

Paragraph 8: Separately, there'll be another, I think we should talk about this next week but there's now this kind of generative video game platform that's being demoed where you can instruct the video game intentions and it generates a in reverse a video game experience for you on the fly. It's something we talked about a couple episodes, probably a couple months ago at this point. I had something on "This Week in Startups" who showed a video game where he made like you make 25 objects in the game it's really incredible in a certain style. Then you say, "I want to make more characters like that, I want to make more backgrounds like that" like you take a Wes Anderson style whatever and it just generates them for you and it just keeps generating them for you.

另外，有一种新型的视频游戏平台被展示了出来。我认为我们应该在下周讨论一下。它可以让你指导游戏意图，然后它会即时生成一个相应的视频游戏体验。几个月前，我们在几集节目中讨论了这个问题。有一个人在《本周初创公司》节目中展示了一款视频游戏，他在游戏中制作了25个物体，这真的非常令人难以置信，因为你可以按照某种风格要求生成更多的角色和背景，就像使用 Wes Anderson 风格，它就会生成出相应的角色和背景，而且会不断地为你生成。

Paragraph 9: So one artist can make a palette for a game and you say, "I want to have a penguin in my game, I want to have a zombie in my game." It just does it and then people who are playing the game can say what they want with prompts and it creates it and you can drive a storyline and then you can integrate with other people's storylines. I mean it's really powerful.

因此，一个艺术家可以为游戏制作调色板，然后你可以说，“我想在我的游戏中有一个企鹅，我想在我的游戏中有一个僵尸。”系统会自动生成这些元素，游戏玩家可以根据提示进行选择，并构建情节，然后还可以与其他玩家的情节相互融合。这真的非常强大。

Paragraph 10: Anyway, I gotta run for David Friedberg, David Zach, and Chimapahop here. Hi, my boy J. Cal, I love you boys. We'll see you all next time in the island podcast. Bye-bye, playing out with the greatest hits here on z100.

不管怎样，我得下了。向David Friedberg、David Zach和Chimapahop问好。嘿，我的小伙子J. Cal，我爱你们。我们下次在岛上的播客中再见。再见，现在在z100播放最棒的歌曲。

Paragraph 11: The Balenciaga video featuring the all-in-casts with cameos by Brian Armstrong, Keith Roboi, and Elon Musk. Come at that you Balenciaga. Friday night, eight o'clock. Hardest ticket in New York.

第11段：Balenciaga的视频中，全员出演并由Brian Armstrong，Keith Roboi和Elon Musk客串。你们来吧，Balenciaga。周五晚上八点。纽约最难得的门票。这段话表达了Balenciaga在周五晚上八点的盛大活动，该活动的门票是纽约最难得的，吸引了许多名人前来观看。视频中的全员出演和客串明星颇具吸引力。

Paragraph 12: When you struggle with a problem, that's when you Balenciaga. Fed mollet, quantitative tightening in the front, quantitative easing in the back.

当你遇到问题时，就是你展现出巴黎世家（Balenciaga）的时刻。“Quantitative tightening”在前，即紧缩政策；“quantitative easing”在后，即宽松政策。

Paragraph 13: The greatest source of value and wealth creation in the 22nd century could be driven by terrestrial nucleosynthesis.

第13段：21世纪最大的价值和财富创造源可能会由地球核合成所驱动。

Paragraph 14: Getting dressed is easy, owning the runway is hard.

打扮很容易，就是要走在时尚的舞台上却很难。

Paragraph 15: The big winners of tomorrow will likely be the Minecraft YouTubers of today.

明天的大赢家很可能是今天的Minecraft YouTuber。

Paragraph 16: It's easier than ever to confuse popularity and truth.

比以往任何时候容易混淆流行和真相。

Paragraph 17: I think it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be Balenciaga.

我认为普通人可以选择成为巴黎世家。

Paragraph 18: The mainstream media is the most ancient it's ever been.

第18段：主流媒体目前的历史最为悠久。

Paragraph 19: When I left Facebook, I left an enormous amount of equity on the table. I thought, "I don't want to be a slave to money. I want to be a slave to something bigger."

当我离开Facebook时，我放弃了巨额股权，因为我想：“我不想成为金钱的奴隶，我想成为更伟大的事业的奴隶。”

Paragraph 20: Balenciaga.

巴黎世家。