The Coming Chinese EV Export Boom
发布时间 2023-04-30 23:00:00 来源
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There is an EV export wave building in China. Recently I read a Reuters article about an EV auto show in Shanghai. There, China's leading domestic EV producer BYD showed off their seagull hatchback. It was priced at just 11,300 USD. It immediately caught my eye. BYD later announced that they received 11,000 orders from the seagull 24 hours after pre-sales opened.
在中国，正在形成一股电动汽车出口浪潮。最近我读到一篇路透社的文章，介绍了上海的一次电动汽车展。在那里，中国领先的国产电动汽车生产商比亚迪展示了他们的海鸥掀背车，价格仅为11,300美元。它立即吸引了我的注意力。比亚迪后来宣布，在海鸥预售开放24小时后，他们收到了11,000个订单。
According to self-reported UN Comrade Data in 2022, Chinese electric vehicle exports grew 131% year over year to 20.9 billion dollars in value, though there is a little caveat here that we will talk about later. Anyway, I've been wanting to do this one for a long time now.
根据2022年联合国自报数据，中国电动汽车出口价值增长131％，达209亿美元，尽管此处有一个小小的陷阱，稍后我们将讨论。无论如何，我一直想做这件事，现在终于做到了。
意思：2022年根据联合国发布的数据显示，中国的电动汽车出口价值同比增长了131%，达到209亿美元，但其中存在一些限制（需要解释）。无论如何，我已经长期渴望着做这个报道了。
In this video, just a few thoughts on the coming Chinese EV boom. But first, let me talk about the Patreon. Early access members get to see new videos and selected references for those videos before their release to the public. It helps support the videos and I appreciate every pledge, and I recently added an annual subscription option too. Thanks and all with a show.
在这个视频中，我将分享一些有关即将来临的中国电动车热潮的想法。但首先，让我谈谈Patreon。早期访问会员可以在视频发布之前看到新视频和相关引用。这有助于支持视频，我很感激每一个支持者，并最近增加了年度订阅选项。谢谢观看。
Let us start with some history. The development of China's EV industry, they say new energy vehicles in China but I'll stick with EVs, is a story of an incredibly successful industrial catch-up.
让我们从历史开始。中国新能源汽车行业的发展是一个极其成功的工业追赶的故事，虽然他们称之为中国的新能源汽车，但我会坚持使用电动车。
意思：这段话讲述了中国电动车行业的发展历程是一个非常成功的工业追赶故事。
The three critical systems inside an EV are the battery, drive motor, and power train control systems. The battery stores energy, the drive motor converts that energy into motion, and the power train oversees and manages that whole process. In 2000, China's lithium ion batteries and electric drive systems lagged about 10 years behind Japan.
电动汽车内部有三个至关重要的系统，分别是电池、驱动电机和动力总成控制系统。电池负责能量的存储，驱动电机将能量转化为动力，动力总成则监督并管理整个过程。到了2000年，中国的锂离子电池和电动驱动系统与日本相比落后了约10年。
To catch up, the Chinese government gave the EV high status as one of the 863 projects. Over the next 10 years, the 863 policy offered about 2 billion RMB of financial support to domestic firms. This was to help blunt the financial burden of developing these pricey but critical EV technologies. Also the Chinese government's first EV policies focused on improving their domestic players' technical sophistication.
为了追赶西方国家，中国政府将电动汽车作为“863计划”之一，并从接下来的10年中向国内企业提供了约20亿元的财政支持，以减轻开发这些昂贵但至关重要的电动汽车技术的财务负担。此外，中国政府的首批电动车政策着眼于提高国内厂商的技术水平。
So in addition to financial subsidies, the government implemented technology transfer requirements whenever foreign players wanted to tap the Chinese market. For instance, Toyota could only enter China in 2005 after they agreed to jointly produce the car with China FAA Auto Group. But it was in 2009 that the people's republic really moved the EV into the heart of their automobile industrial policy, the 2009 Automotive Readjustment and Revitalization Plan.
除了财政补贴，政府还实施了技术转移要求，以便外国企业想要进入中国市场。例如，丰田只能在同意与中国FAA汽车集团合作生产汽车之后，才能于2005年进入中国市场。但真正将电动汽车纳入他们的汽车产业政策核心的是2009年的汽车调整和振兴计划。
This is a big multi-component plan encompassing all types of cars, but specifically with regards to EVs, it sought to expand domestic EV production capacity. Chinese firms were encouraged to offer new EVs by 2011 and manufacture their EV parts locally. Furthermore, they were given a target EV market share of 5% or about 500,000 units.
这是一个涵盖所有类型车辆的大型多元计划，但特别关注电动汽车，旨在扩大国内电动汽车生产能力。中国企业受到鼓励，在2011年前推出新型电动汽车，并在本地制造他们的电动汽车零部件。此外，他们被要求在电动汽车市场占有率方面达到5％或约50万辆的目标。
And on the other side, the central government passed new policies to kickstart demand. First, they announced that they would subsidize 13 city governments to purchase EVs for use in public services like post, taxis and sanitation. And then in 2010, they trialled consumer subsidies for EVs in five cities.
另一方面，中央政府通过出台新政策来推动需求。首先，他们宣布将资助13个城市政府购买用于邮政、出租车和环卫等公共服务的电动汽车。然后，在2010年，他们在五个城市试行了针对个人购买电动汽车的补贴政策。
Global buyers or leasing companies can get subsidies ranging from 50,000 RMB for plug-in hybrid or 60,000 RMB for full EV. Local governments can also provide grants of their own on top of that to essentially place EVs at price parity with internal combustion engines. According to statistics, Chinese electric vehicle sales grew from 480 to 1,090 from 2009 to 2010, then grew again to 4,750 the year after, a 10X increase in two years.
全球购买者或租赁公司可以获得插电式混合动力车50000元人民币的补贴或全新电动汽车60000元人民币的补贴。当地政府还可以根据需要提供他们自己的资助，以将电动汽车的价格与内燃机的价格基本持平。 根据统计，自2009年至2010年，中国电动汽车销售量从480辆增长到1090辆，然后在接下来的一年内增长到4750辆，两年增长了10倍。
The number of charging poles went from 134 to 6,200 to 13,300 over that same period, it has since gone to 159,000 in 2015. New entrance flooded into the market, just as importantly, patent applications grew 44% indicating increasing R&D intensity.
同期内充电桩数量从134个增加到6,200个，再到13,300个，而在2015年则增加至159,000个。新的市场进入者不断涌现，更重要的是，专利申请数量增长44％，表明研发强度不断增强。
This policy success and the industry's growing technical proficiency convinced the Chinese government that they had opened a window of opportunity to dominate a growing valuable industry. In 2012, the EV consumer subsidies were rolled out to the rest of the country, and despite the occasional fraud or two, the consumer subsidies have been extremely successful, helping to subsidize some 3-6% of the EVs cost.
这个政策的成功和行业不断提高的技术水平让中国政府相信他们已经打开了一扇主导一个不断增长有价值产业的机遇之窗。在2012年，电动汽车消费者补贴政策扩大到了全国其他地区。虽然偶尔会有一两起欺诈案件，但消费者补贴政策已经非常成功，帮助补贴了3-6%的电动汽车成本。
In 2022, those national subsidies were finally entirely removed, originally there were to be gradually phased out starting in 2017 with a total removal in 2020, but then were extended due to COVID. According to one estimate from China Merchants Bank International, the government had paid out some $15 billion in total from 2012 to 2021. Another article by the excellent online magazine Sixth Tone said that the government spent $22.5 billion in EV subsidies from 2010 to 2020, citing data from the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
到2022年，国家补贴全部取消了。最初计划在2017年逐步削减，到2020年全部取消，但由于COVID的影响而延长了时间。根据中国招商银行国际的一项估计，政府从2012年到2021年已经支付了大约150亿美元。另一篇来自优秀在线杂志《第六声》的文章称，中国工业和信息化部的数据显示，政府在2010年到2020年间花费了225亿美元用于电动汽车补贴。
Ten years and 15 to $22.5 billion have changed a whole lot. China's EV market has grown to become the world's largest in 2022 with 6.5 million new energy vehicles, EVs and plug-in hybrids, shipped with 5.67 million sold. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, there were nearly 26.86 million automobile sold in China in 2022, so EVs made up 22% of all automobile sales in China and nearly 60% of global EV sales volume.
在过去的十年里，中国的新能源汽车市场发生了翻天覆地的变化，投资金额达到了150亿至225亿美元。到2022年，中国的电动汽车市场已经成为全球最大的市场，累计销售新能源汽车、电动汽车及插电式混合动力汽车达650万辆，其中售出567万辆。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，2022年中国汽车销量接近2686万辆，因此电动汽车占据了中国汽车销售总量的22%，并占据全球电动汽车销售量的近60%。
This large market has also fostered intense competition. Domestic EV makers have hit every metric the government has set out for them. According to counterpoint research, there are over 94 brands with 300 models ranging from $5,000 to $90,000. Local brands have over 80% of the market. At the very top you have BYD, the market leader with nearly 30% of the market. But there are also traditional players like Wooling, Sherry, Hong Kong, and even more, EV startups like X-Pang and Neo. With the exception of Tesla, China's most popular EV brands are made by domestic manufacturers.
这个庞大的市场也培育了激烈的竞争。国内电动汽车制造商已经达到了政府制定的每一个指标。根据Counterpoint Research的数据，有超过94个品牌，涵盖价位从5000美元到90000美元不等的300多款车型。本土品牌占据了市场的80%以上。在最顶端，你有拥有近30%市场份额的市场领导者BYD。但也有传统的车企如吉利、上汽、比亚迪等，以及更多的电动汽车初创企业如小鹏和蔚来。除了特斯拉，中国最受欢迎的电动汽车品牌都是由国内制造商生产的。
Notable brands are the BYD song, which is a crossover utility vehicle. The Wooling Hongwang Mini EV, which is a small city car capable of seating 4 people. It is quite cute, comes in multiple colors and doesn't cost much, something like 5-10 million. The BYD Qing, which is a compact sedan, all the BYD cars are named after Chinese dynasties. So if it is like anything like its namesake, I expect this one to collapse shortly after its first model. Am I a war for EV with the best name? The Aura Good Cat, Haomao, or Funky Cat is sort of looks like a Porsche.
引人注目的品牌有比亚迪宋，它是一个跨界多功能车。Wooling Hongwang Mini EV是一款小型城市汽车，可以容纳4人。它很可爱，有多种颜色可选，价格不高，大约是500-1000万。比亚迪轻，是一款紧凑型轿车，所有比亚迪汽车都以中国的朝代命名。如果它像它的名字一样，我希望这款车型在推出后不久就会崩溃。我是否拥有最佳命名的电动汽车？Aura Good Cat、毫毛或Funky Cat看起来有点像保时捷。
This intense competition has cut margins to the Chinese EV ecosystem. The BYD makes something like a thousand dollars USD of net profit for each EV sold. X-Pang, Neo, and the auto all sold millions of dollars of EVs in 2022, but we're not able to turn a profit. The competition will only intensify in 2023. Tesla, a lacquer in the Chinese market, kicked off the year by cutting prices and going for volume. Over 40 other brands have followed in turn. The competition has cut a lot of fat out of the Chinese EV ecosystem.
激烈的竞争压缩了中国电动汽车产业的利润。比亚迪每销售一辆电动汽车，净利润大约为一千美元。小鹏、蔚来、长安等车企在2022年销售了数百万美元的电动汽车，但未能盈利。2023年，竞争只会变得更加激烈。特斯拉作为中国市场的后来者，开年以降低价格并扩大销量开局。随后，还有40多个品牌跟进。竞争削减了中国电动汽车生态系统的许多多余部分。
China is the world's factory, but their EV manufacturing advantages are particularly strong. This is due to lower R&D costs, better scale, less capital invested, and cheaper labor. At the CES convention in January 2023, the CEO of Forvia, an auto supplier, said that Chinese EV makers can make a small EV for 10,000 euro less than the Europeans can. The EV supply chain advantage is substantial. Internal combustion engines have on average 30,000 components compared to the EV's 20,000. Many of these electric car components are made inside China, further cutting down on cost.
中国是全球的工厂，但他们在EV制造方面的优势特别突出。这是因为研发成本较低、规模更大、投资较少和劳动力更廉价。在2023年1月的CES大会上，一家汽车供应商Forvia的CEO表示，中国的EV制造商可以比欧洲人少花1万欧元生产一台小型EV。EV供应链的优势是重大的。内燃机平均有30,000个组件，而EV只有20,000个。许多这些电动汽车零部件都是在中国内部生产的，进一步降低成本。
One of the biggest cost drivers in an EV is the battery pack. BYD and especially Cato are some of the world's biggest producers of battery packs, leveraging scale and an integrated supply chain. They strike deals directly with the resource holders to cut costs to the bone. In 2022, Cato generated about 48 billion USD in revenue and 4.4 billion in profit. They have about 32% market share of the EV battery pack industry, a comfortable lead on Korea's LG energy solution. There are also R&D leaders, a while back I talked about their sodium ion batteries in an earlier video. Commercializing such a thing would be a massive leap forward on the materials front.
电动汽车的最大成本驱动因素之一是电池组。比亚迪和特别是卡通是世界上最大的电池组生产商之一，利用规模和一体化供应链。他们直接与资源持有者达成协议，将成本削减至最低。 2022年，卡通的收入约为480亿美元，利润为44亿美元。他们在EV电池包行业中拥有约32％的市场份额，领先于韩国的LG能源解决方案。还有研发领袖，前段时间我在早些时候的视频中讲到了他们的钠离子电池。实现商业化将是材料领域的一次巨大飞跃。
I consider them one of China's most formidable national champions. Anyways, the intense competition and cost advantages have incentivized the Chinese EV makers to go abroad in search of new markets. The American markets are somewhat difficult for Chinese EV makers to import into because of higher duties, but the European markets are for now pretty open.
我认为中国的这些企业是国家最强大的冠军企业之一。不管怎样，激烈的竞争和成本优势鼓励中国的电动汽车制造商寻找新市场。由于关税更高，中国电动汽车制造商进口到美国市场有一定的困难，但目前欧洲市场相对开放。
The top countries importing these Chinese EVs in 2022 are Belgium, United Kingdom, Spain and Slovenia. Now here comes the caveat. If we break down what brands are being exported out of China to Europe, 49% of Chinese made EV exports to Europe from January 2021 to March 2022 were Tesla cars. After that, we have Chinese owned European brands with 35%. These are like Polestar, a Sweden-based brand owned by Givi and MG Motor, which is owned by Psych Motor. And then we have the European joint ventures with 14% market share, like BMW and Renault Group. BMW exports the IX3 Electric SUV while Renault the Dacia Spring EV hatchback.
2022年进口这些中国EV的主要国家是比利时，英国，西班牙和斯洛文尼亚。但是有一个警告。如果我们分解一下从中国向欧洲出口的品牌，从2021年1月到2022年3月中国制造的电动汽车出口到欧洲的49%是特斯拉汽车。之后，我们有拥有35%的欧洲品牌，例如瑞典品牌Polestar，由吉利控股，和Psych Motor拥有的MG Motor。然后我们有欧洲合资企业占14%的市场份额，例如宝马和雷诺集团。宝马出口IX3电动SUV，而雷诺出口Dacia Spring EV掀背车。
Tesla's exports into Europe are yet another indication of the superior cost structures of the Chinese EV manufacturing supply chain has opposed to that in Europe, less material shortages, cheaper labor and more aggressive work practices. The Tesla is also working on a Gigafactory in Germany, which I presume will eventually cut into Chinese Tesla exports. You might also argue that Tesla should be a unique case because it is an American brand.
特斯拉在欧洲的出口表明，相比欧洲，中国电动车制造供应链的成本结构更为优越，缺少的材料更少，劳动力更便宜，工作方式更具侵略性。特斯拉还在德国建造 Gigafactory，我认为这将最终对中国特斯拉的出口造成影响。你也可以认为特斯拉应该是一个独特的案例，因为它是一个美国品牌。
But I think it would be a mistake to underestimate these Chinese owned brands. In 2006, the Chinese automaker brilliance tried to bring their low-cost sedan, the BS6, unfortunate name, to Europe. But then the car received a Euro NCAP rating of 1 out of 5 stars, deliveries were suspended and it created the impression that Chinese cars were unsafe. But like I said, I don't think you should underestimate these companies prowess.
但我认为低估中国品牌会是一个错误。2006年，中国汽车制造商华晨尝试将他们的低成本轿车——不幸命名为BS6——引入欧洲。但是这辆车获得了欧洲NCAP评级的1颗星，交付被暂停，并创造了中国汽车不安全的印象。但就像我所说的，我认为您不应低估这些公司的实力。
I am reminded of the European smartphone industry. 20 years ago, the top mobile phone brand was Nokia with 35% share. Siemens and Ericsson had significant shares as well. The Koreans were the only Asian vendors in the market. Today the European smartphone market has drastically changed. Apple and Samsung are in the lead, but the next two vendors are Xiaomi and Huawei.
我想起了欧洲的智能手机产业。20年前，最顶尖的手机品牌是诺基亚，拥有35%的市场份额。西门子和爱立信也有可观的市场份额。当时，韩国厂商是市场上唯一的亚洲品牌。今天，欧洲的智能手机市场发生了巨大变化。苹果和三星领先，但下一家厂商是小米和华为。
Likewise, with the Chinese mobile phone brands, the Chinese EV brands are following a strategy of flashy marketing, extensive investment dollars, and fully featured offerings at good prices. Great Wall Motors, or a funky cat, a cousin to the aforementioned Good Cat, is launching in the UK for about 32,000 pounds, features like facial recognition, and of course, a 5-star safety rating. Over the past two years, BYD launched BYD branded models in 16 countries and ordered carrier ships so to ship their EVs over to Europe and Australia. X-Pang also built experienced stores and service centers in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway. They also recently opened up Norwegian sales for their SUV and sedan cars this year.
同样地，像中国的手机品牌一样，中国的新能源汽车品牌正在遵循光鲜亮丽的市场营销策略、大量的投资和价格相对实惠的功能齐全的车型。例如，大众品牌或者叫Good Cat的堂兄弟——奇瑞汽车即将在英国推出售价约32,000英镑的汽车，它具有识别面部的功能，当然还获得了5星级的安全评定。在过去的两年里，比亚迪在16个国家推出了品牌车型，并下订单购买了运输船，用于将他们的电动车运往欧洲和澳大利亚。小鹏汽车还在丹麦、荷兰和挪威建立了经验丰富的门店和服务中心。他们今年还在挪威推出了SUV和轿车销售。
A significant portion of the European economy is based on automobiles, so any new entry or development is worth tracking. But what if anything should Europe do? Should they raise protective trade barriers like what was done in the United States? EU policymakers are probably talking about it. William Lee, CEO and founder of the Chinese EV Maker Neo said that he would not be surprised to see some form of protectionist policies coming from importers.
欧洲经济的一个重要部分依赖于汽车业，因此任何新的进入或发展都值得关注。但欧洲应该做些什么呢？他们应该像美国那样提高贸易保护壁垒吗？欧盟政策制定者可能正在讨论这个问题。中国电动汽车制造商Neo的CEO兼创始人威廉·李表示，他不会对来自进口国的某种形式的保护主义政策感到意外。
But these policymakers will need to walk a fine line. Many European automakers have joint venture operations in China and heavily rely on Chinese sales of traditional cars. Volkswagen Chairman Oliver Bloom has said that China is their most important market. Any protectionism against EV imports will see trade retaliation of some form. Furthermore, these EV cars are not just going to Europe. They're also being exported to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America too. The United Arab Emirates is the fifth biggest EV importer, and a kind Asianomertive viewer from Saudi Arabia emailed me to note the large number of Chinese branded car CCs on the roads there.
但这些决策者需要小心谨慎。许多欧洲汽车制造商在中国拥有合资企业，并且严重依赖于传统汽车在中国的销售。大众董事长奥利弗·布鲁姆表示，中国是他们最重要的市场。任何对进口电动汽车的保护主义都将导致某种形式的贸易报复。此外，这些电动汽车不仅将出口到欧洲，还将出口到东南亚、中东和拉丁美洲。阿拉伯联合酋长国是第五大电动汽车进口国，并且来自沙特阿拉伯的一个友好的亚洲观察者给我发送了电子邮件，指出了当地路上大量的中国品牌汽车。
Legacy automakers in Korea, Japan, Europe, Canada, and the United States will have to compete hard for both their own markets and those overseas. They can't just retreat into regional castles. I reckon what is most likely to happen is that Europe gets the biggest Chinese EV makers to build a factory on European soil. Cato already has one in Germany. I don't see a joint venture or technology transfer agreement happening though. It would be strange for them to do something like that. It echoes the entry of the Korean car makers Hyundai and Kia a few years back. Some tensions ameliorated by localization.
韩国、日本、欧洲、加拿大和美国的传统汽车制造商将不得不为自己的本国市场和海外市场进行激烈的竞争。他们不能仅仅局限于本地领域。我认为最有可能发生的是欧洲将争取让最大的中国电动汽车制造商在欧洲建立工厂。Cato已经在德国有一个工厂了。我不认为他们会达成合资或技术转移协议。这样做会显得很奇怪。这类似于几年前韩国汽车制造商现代和起亚的进入。一些紧张局势得到了本地化的缓解。
Meanwhile the traditional European automakers bring out their EVs to occupy the premium and medium price markets while the Chinese makers take a comfortable niche behind the home teams. I think it is hard to argue against the successes of China's EV consumers' subsidy policies. Yet at the same time one has to consider the strange effects that nine years of subsidies might have had on the Chinese market.
同时，传统的欧洲汽车制造商推出他们的电动汽车占据高端和中端市场，而中国制造商则在本土市场占据着一个舒适的利基。我认为很难反对中国电动汽车消费者补贴政策的成功。但同时，我们必须考虑到这九年的补贴可能对中国市场产生的奇怪影响。
By 2020 the average amount of subsidy per car was about $19,000 RMB, $2,755. The Chinese government is unlikely to continue paying out these subsidies. It is a lot of money to be doling out to an industry that is growing at very high volume. Provinces are free to give their own subsidies to and some are. But there will be a lot of pushback from members of the industry who will argue the China's leading position in the new energy economy will be challenged and copied by other countries. Like America's inflation reduction act of 2022, which I might argue apes the Chinese subsidy policies. If it works for them, it could be working for the Americans too.
到2020年每辆车的平均补贴金额约为19000人民币（2755美元）。中国政府不太可能继续支付这些补贴。这是向一个高速增长的行业发放的大笔资金。省份可以自行提供补贴，有些省份已经这样做了。但产业成员将会反对，他们会认为中国在新能源经济领域的领先地位将受到挑战，并被其他国家效仿。就像美国的通胀减少法案（我认为是效仿中国的补贴政策）。如果这对他们有用，对美国人来说也可能会起作用。
Reuters reported last year that the Chinese government started talking with its automakers about the issue.
路透社去年报道说，中国政府开始与汽车制造商谈论这个问题。这意味着中国政府开始关注汽车行业的问题，并在积极探索解决方案。
We also have another Nikesh peace discussing tax exemption extensions as well.
我们还有另外一份尼克什和平的文件，讨论税收豁免延期的问题。
It will be interesting to see how the central government responds and doubly interesting to see how the European economy responds to the coming EV onslaught from China.
很有意思的是，我们将会看到中央政府会如何回应，同时也很有意思的是，我们将会看到欧洲经济如何应对中国即将来临的电动汽车攻势。
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大家晚上好，今天晚餐节目到此结束了，感谢您的收看，请订阅本频道，下次再见！