Elon Musk talks Twitter, Tesla and how his brain works — live at TED2022
发布时间 2022-04-15 02:20:59 来源
摘要
In this unedited conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Elon Musk — the head of Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink and The Boring Company — digs into the recent news around his bid to purchase Twitter and gets honest about the biggest regret of his career, how his brain works, the future he envisions for the world and a lot more. (Recorded at TED2022 on April 14, 2022)
This live interview includes an excerpt from another exclusive, extended conversation recorded a few days earlier at Tesla's Texas Gigafactory. Watch that full video here: https://youtu.be/YRvf00NooN8
1:22 Tesla Texas Gigafactory interview clip
11:34 Elon Musk live at TED2022
11:48 Twitter, free speech and open-sourcing the algorithm
27:40 Tesla and short sellers
32:02 If you could go back in time and change one thing, what would it be?
33:44 Electric vehicles, manufacturing and sleeping on the floor of the Tesla factory
38:04 "At this point I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth."
39:15 Elon's "Master Plan" and accelerating a sustainable energy economy
42:36 SNL, Asperger's, childhood and how Elon's brain works
46:48 "I was absolutely obsessed with truth."
49:23 Philosophy, the meaning of life and the "why" of things
51:43 What the future will look like
52:37 "We want to do our absolute best to make sure the future is ... something you can look forward to and not feel sad about."
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Hello. So, in just a few minutes Elon Musk will be joining us here live on stage for a conversation. Rumor has it. There are a few things to talk about with him. We will see.
大家好。所以，只剩几分钟，埃隆·马斯克将通过舞台上的现场对话与我们见面。传闻有几个话题要和他聊聊。让我们拭目以待。
But before that, I just want to show you something special. I want you to come with me to Tesla's huge Gigafactory in Austin, Texas. So the day before it opened last week, the evening before, I was allowed to walk around it, no one else there. And what I saw there was honestly pretty mind blowing.
但在那之前，我只想向你展示一些特别的事情。我希望你能和我一起去特斯拉在德克萨斯州奥斯汀市的巨大超级工厂。所以在上周它开放的前一天晚上，我被允许在那里四处走动，没有其他人。而我在那里看到的实际上令人惊叹。
This is Elon Musk's famous machine that builds the machine and his view, the secret to a sustainable future, is not just making an electric car, it's making a system that churns out huge numbers of electric cars with a margin so that they can fund further growth.
这是埃隆·马斯克著名的机器，它建造机器，并且表达了他对可持续未来的见解。不仅仅是制造电动汽车，他认为关键是建立一个能大量制造电动汽车并具有利润空间的系统，以便他们可以用这些利润来支持进一步的发展。
When I was there, none of us knew whether Elon would actually be able to make it here today. So I took the chance to sit down with him and record an epic interview. And I just want to show you a nine, an eight minute excerpt of that interview.
当我在那里的时候，我们谁都不知道埃隆是否真的能今天来到这里。所以我决定抓住机会与他面对面坐下来，录制一场史诗级的采访。现在我只想给你展示这次采访的一个九分钟、八分钟的摘录。
So here from Austin, Texas, Elon Musk.
所以，来自德克萨斯州奥斯汀的埃隆·马斯克。
Want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence? I'm curious about your timelines and how you predict and how come some things are so amazing on the money and some art.
你们现在想转向一下关于人工智能的讨论吗？我对你们的时间表和你们的预测很好奇，还有一些事情为什么如此恰到好处，而其他一些则不太令人满意的。
So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example, I mean you've kind of been amazing. I think in 2014, when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars, you said 2020, I think we will do half a million a year. We did all six exactly half a million.
所以说到预测特斯拉车辆的销售情况，比如说，你猜得相当准确。我记得在2014年特斯拉那一年销售了60,000辆车时，你说2020年我们每年会卖出50万辆车。我们确切地达到了这个数字，每年卖出了50万辆车。
Five years ago, last time you came to tech, I asked you about full self driving. And you said, yeah, this very year, I am confident that we will have a car going from LA to New York without any intervention. Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right. But so talk, what's the difference between those two? Why has full self driving in particular been so hard to predict?
五年前，你上次来到科技公司的时候，我问过你关于全自动驾驶的事情。你说，是的，就在这一年，我有信心我们能够开发出一辆能从洛杉矶到纽约完全无人干预的汽车。是的，我不想让你震惊，但我并不总是对的。那么，我们来谈一谈，这两者之间有什么区别？为什么特别是全自动驾驶如此难以预测呢？
I mean, the thing that really got me, and I think it's going to get a lot of other people, is that there are just so many false storms with self driving, where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, and then it turns out you just hit a ceiling. Because if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve. So it's like a series of log curves. So most people don't want to log curve business, but it goes up sort of fairly straight way. And then it starts tailing off.
我的意思是，真正让我困扰的是，我认为这也会困扰很多其他人，那就是自动驾驶技术中存在太多虚假的突破。你以为自己已经找到解决问题的方法，已经掌握了这个问题，结果却发现你只是碰到了瓶颈。因为如果你将进展绘制成图表，进展看起来就像一个对数曲线。所以它就像一系列的对数曲线。所以大多数人不想涉足这种对数曲线领域，但进展一开始是相对直线上升，然后逐渐开始趋缓下降。
And you start, and there's a kind of ocean, diminishing returns. In retrospect, they seem obvious. But in order to solve full self driving properly, you actually just you have to solve real world AI. Because you said, what are the road networks designed to work with? They designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains, and with vision, our eyes.
当你开始的时候，会有一种海洋般的递减收益。回过头来看，它们似乎显而易见。但实际上，为了正确解决完全自动驾驶问题，你必须解决真实世界的人工智能。因为你说过，道路网络是为何而设计的？它们是为了与生物神经网络——我们的大脑，以及我们的视觉——眼睛相适应而设计的。
And so in order to make it work with computers, you basically need to solve real world AI and vision. Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets in order to have self driving work for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets. I guess we put it that way. It's sort of like quite obvious that the only way to solve full self driving is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision.
为了让自动驾驶在计算机上运行，你基本上需要解决现实世界的人工智能和视觉问题。因为我们需要相机和硅神经网络，以使设计用于眼睛和生物神经网络的系统能够实现自动驾驶。我想我们可以这样说。显而易见，解决全面自动驾驶的唯一途径就是解决现实世界的人工智能和复杂视觉问题。
What do you feel about the current architecture? Do you think you have an architecture now where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve not to tell off any time soon?
你对当前的建筑有什么感觉？你认为现在的建筑是否存在着一种可能性，即对数曲线在短期内不会消失？
Well, I mean, these may be an infamous last words, but I actually am confident that we will solve this year. That we will exceed, you're saying the probability of an accident, what points do you exceed that of the average person? I think we will exceed that this year. We could be here talking again in a year. It's like, well, another year went by and it didn't happen. But I think this is the year.
嗯，我的意思是，这可能是一些臭名昭著的绝笔，但我真的相信我们能够解决今年的问题。你在说概率上会发生事故，那么你超过普通人的哪些点呢？我认为今年我们会超越这些点。也许明年我们还会再次聊到这个问题。就像是说，又过了一年，什么都没发生。但我觉得今年就是关键的一年。
Is there an element that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines to drive people to be ambitious? Without that, nothing gets done.
有没有一个因素，你实际上故意制定了激进的预测时间表，以激发人们的雄心壮志？如果没有这个因素，就什么事情也无法完成。
So it feels like at some point in the last year, seeing the progress on understanding the AI, the Tesla AI understanding the world around it led to a kind of an aha moment. Because you really surprised people recently when you said probably the most important product development going on at Tesla this year is this robot optimist. Is it something that happened in the development of full self driving that gave you the confidence to say, you know what, we could do something special here.
所以感觉在过去的一年里，通过了解人工智能的进展，特斯拉AI对周围世界的理解似乎引发了一种“恍然大悟”的时刻。最近你说到特斯拉今年最重要的产品开发可能是这个机器人优化算法，这真的让人们感到惊讶。是自动驾驶技术的发展给你带来了自信，让你认为我们可以在这方面做出一些特别的事情吗？
Yeah, exactly. So, you know, it took me a while to sort of realize that in order to solve self driving, you really needed to solve real world AI. And the point of which you saw real world AI for a car, which is really a robot on four wheels, you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well. The thing that the things that are currently missing are enough intelligence, enough intelligence for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things without being explicitly instructed.
是的，完全正确。所以，你知道，我花了一些时间才意识到，要解决自动驾驶，你真的需要解决现实世界的人工智能问题。当你看到一个真正的汽车上的现实世界人工智能，它实际上是一个四轮的机器人，你就可以推广到双腿机器人上。目前缺失的东西是机器人具有足够的智能来在真实世界中导航并且在没有明确指示的情况下做有用的事情。
So the missing things are basically real world intelligence and scaling up manufacturing. Those are two things that Tesla is very good at. And so then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators and sensors that are needed for a human right robot. People have no idea. This is going to be bigger than the car.
所以缺失的东西基本上是现实世界的智能和扩大制造规模。这两件事是特斯拉非常擅长的。因此，我们基本上只需要设计用于人类机器人所需的专用致动器和传感器。人们完全不知道。这将比汽车更大。
But so talk about, I mean, I think the first applications you've mentioned are probably going to be manufacturing. But eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home. If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house and knew where every object in that house was or was supposed to be and could recognize all those objects, I mean, that's kind of amazing, isn't it? Like, the kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do would be what? Like tidy up? Yeah, absolutely. Or make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn. Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures. Exactly. Take care of grandmother and make sure, yeah, exactly. I mean, it could recognize, obviously, recognize everyone in the home. Could play catch with your kids. Yes.
但是，所以说，我想第一批应用可能会是在制造领域。但是最终的愿景是让这些机器人能够在家庭中使用。如果你有一个真正能够理解你家的三维结构、知道每个物品在哪里或应该在哪里，并且能够识别所有这些物品的机器人，那就太令人惊讶了，不是吗？比如，你可以让机器人做什么呢？整理房间？对，当然。或者做晚餐，修剪草坪。给奶奶拿杯茶并给她展示家庭照片。确切地说，照顾奶奶并确保，是的，确切地说。我是说，它可以明显地识别家中的每个人。 它还可以和你的孩子玩接球游戏。没错。
I mean, obviously we need to be careful. This doesn't become a dystopian situation. Like, I think one of the things that's going to be important is to have a localized wrongship on the robot that cannot be updated over the air. Where if you, for example, would it say, stop, stop, stop, that would, if anyone said that, then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing. And that's not updateable remotely. I think it's going to be important to have safety futures like that. Yeah, that sounds wise. And I do think they should be a regular 3D supplier, I've said this for many years. I don't love being regulated, but I think this is an important thing for Fox City.
我的意思是，显然我们需要小心谨慎。这不应该变成一个反乌托邦的局面。就比如说，我认为一个重要的事情就是在机器人上设置一个无法通过网络更新的本地错误控制器。比如说，如果有人说停止，停下来，那么机器人就会停下来，这种情况就不可远程更新。我认为拥有这样的安全特性非常重要。是的，听起来很明智。我也认为他们应该成为定期的3D供应商，我已经说了很多年了。虽然我不喜欢受到监管，但我认为这对于福克斯城是一件重要的事情。
And do you think there will be basically like, say, say 2050 or whatever, that like a robot in most homes is what they will be and people will probably have them account on them. You'll have your own butler, basically. Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot, probably. I mean, how much of a buddy do you, like, do you have any applications you thought is that, you know, can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner, a lot of money? I mean, I do promise the internet that I'd make cat goals, we could make a robot cat goal. I mean, I would love to see internet, you know. So, yeah, I guess it'll be what whatever people want, really, you know.
你觉得大概在2050年左右，大部分家庭里都会有一个机器人，并且人们可能会非常依赖它们。你将会有自己的管家，基本上就像是你的朋友机器人。嗯，你可能会有一种伙伴机器人。我是说，作为一个伙伴，你认为有哪些应用是可以拥有浪漫伴侣、性伴侣、还有很多财富的？我是说，我向网络承诺过会制作猫目标，我们可以制作一只机器猫目标。我是说，我很想看到互联网上的这个。所以，是的，我想这将完全取决于人们的需求。
What sort of timeline should we be thinking about of the first models that are actually made and sold? Well, you know, the first, you know, is that we tend to make art for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive, and things that people don't want to do. And, you know, I think we'll have like an interesting prototype sometime this year. We might have something useful next year, but I think quite likely within at least two years. And then we'll see rapid growth year over year of the usefulness of the human right robots and decreasing costs and scaling up production.
我们应该考虑首批实际生产和销售的模型的时间线是什么样的呢？嗯，你知道，第一点是，我们倾向于为那些危险、无聊、重复的工作制作艺术品，以及那些人们不想做的事情。你知道的，我认为我们可能会在今年有一个有趣的原型，明年可能会有一些有用的东西，但至少两年内很可能会有相当有用的东西。然后，我们将看到人权机器人的实用性逐年增长，成本逐渐降低，并扩大生产规模。
Help me on the economics of this. So, what do you picture the cost of one of these being? Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high, like less than a car. Yeah, but think about the economics of this. If you can replace a $30,000, $40,000 a year worker, which you have to pay every year with a one-time payment of $25,000 for a robot that can work longer hours, doesn't go on vacation. And that could be a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs. How worried should the world be about that? I wouldn't worry about the sort of putting people out of a job thing. I think we're actually going to have and already do have a massive shortage of labor. So, I think we will have not people out of work, but actually still a shortage of labor, even in the future. But this really will be a world of abundance. Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them. It will be so cheap to have goods and services. It will be ridiculous.
帮我解释一下这个经济学问题。那么，你认为这个的成本会是多少呢？嗯，我认为成本其实不会很高，比买辆车要便宜。是的，但要考虑一下经济方面。如果你可以用一次性支付2.5万美元买一个可以长时间工作、不休假的机器人来替代一个年薪3万到4万美元的员工，那么某些类型的工作可能会迅速被取代。世界对此应该有多担忧呢？我不会担心失业问题。我觉得实际上我们将来会面临劳动力严重短缺的局面，现在可能已经开始短缺了。所以，我认为我们将来不会出现失业问题，而是仍然会面临劳动力短缺。但这将会是一个物质充裕的世界。任何人需要的商品和服务都将随处可得。拥有商品和服务将变得非常便宜，简直是太可笑了。
So, that is part of an epic 80-minute interview, which we are releasing to people members of TED 2022 right after this conference. You should be able to look at it on the TED Live website. There's public interest in it. We're putting that out to the world on Sunday afternoon, I think, Sunday evening. But if you're into this kind of stuff, definitely a good thing to do over the weekend.
所以，这是一次史诗般的80分钟访谈的一部分，我们将在本次会议结束后向TED 2022会员提供。您应该可以在TED Live网站上查看。这引起了公众的兴趣。我们计划在星期日下午或者星期日晚些时候发布给全世界。但是如果你对这种东西感兴趣，在周末的时候绝对是个好选择。
Now then, hearing from Elon Live, there's huge public interest in that. We have opened up this segment to Live Stream. We're joined right now by, I think, quite a few people around the world. Welcome to Vancouver. Welcome to TED 2022. You're joining us in the last day of our conference here in a packed theatre. We've been hearing all week from people with dreams about what the next era of humanity is going to be. Now, arguably, the biggest visionary of them all. Elon Musk. APPLAUSE Hey, Elon, welcome.
现在听说，Elon Musk正在直播中，这引起了巨大的公众兴趣。我们已经开放了这个环节进行直播。现在我们有很多来自世界各地的人参加了。欢迎来到温哥华。欢迎来到2022年的TED大会。你加入了我们在一个拥挤的剧院里进行的会议的最后一天。这一周以来，我们一直听到人们对于人类下一个时代的梦想。而现在，无论如何，最有远见的人之一——埃隆·马斯克。掌声雷动。嘿，埃隆，欢迎你。
So, Elon, a few hours ago, you made an offer to buy Twitter. Why? How did you know? A little bird tweeted in my ear or something. I don't know. Have you seen the movie TED about the bear? I have. I have. So, yeah, yeah. So, is there a question? APPLAUSE Why make that offer? So, well, I think it's very important for there to be an inclusive arena for free speech, where all, yeah. Twitter has become kind of the de facto town square. So, it's just a really important that people have both the reality and the perception that they are able to speak freely within the bounds of the law. One of the things that I believe Twitter should do is open source the algorithm and make any changes to people's tweets, if they're emphasized or de-emphasized, that action should be made apparent so that anyone can see that action has been taken. So, there's no sort of behind the scenes of manipulation, either algorithmically or manually. APPLAUSE
所以，埃隆，几个小时前，你提出要收购Twitter。为什么？你怎么知道的？可能是有小鸟在我耳边啁啾了一下。我不知道。你看过那部关于熊的电影TED吗？我看过。我看过。所以，嗯，嗯。那么，有问题吗？（掌声）为什么要提出这个收购？嗯，我认为保持一个包容性的言论自由领域非常重要，所有人都有机会在法律的范围内自由表达。Twitter已经成为类似城市广场的平台。因此，确保人们既在现实中又在认知上都能够自由发言非常重要。我认为Twitter应该开源算法，并且在对用户的推文进行强调或弱化时，明确显示已经采取了什么行动。这样就不会有在幕后进行操作，无论是算法上还是人工干预。（掌声）
Last week, when we spoke, Elon, I asked you whether you were thinking of taking off. You said no way. You said, I do not want to own Twitter. It is a recipe for misery. Everyone will blame me for everything. What on earth changed? No, I think everyone will still blame me for everything. If I acquire Twitter until it goes wrong, it's my fault, 100%. I think there will be quite a few arrows. It will be miserable, but you still want to do that. I mean, I hope it's not too miserable, but I just think it's important to the fun. It's important to the function of democracy. It's important to the function of the United States as a free country and on many other countries, and to help freedom in the world more broadly than the US. I think the civilizational risk is decreased if the more we can increase the trust of Twitter as a public platform. I do think this will be somewhat painful. I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it. I should also say the intent is to retain as many shareholders as is allowed by the law in a private company, which I think is run 2000 or so. It's definitely not from the standpoint of let me figure out how to monopolize or maximize my ownership of Twitter, but we'll try to bring along as many shareholders as we're allowed to. You don't necessarily want to pay out 40 or whatever it is, billion dollars in cash. You'd like them to come with you. I could technically afford it. But one of the things is this is not a way to make money. I think this is, it's just that I think this is my strong intuitive sense is that having a public platform that is maximally trusted and broadly inclusive is extremely important to the future of civilization. You've described yourself. I don't care about the economics at all. Okay, that's core to here. This is not about the economics. It's for the moral good that you think will achieve.
上周，埃隆，我们交谈时，我问过你是否考虑退出。你说绝对不会。你说，我不想拥有Twitter。那将是一场悲惨的灾难。每个人都会因为一切都怪罪于我。地球上到底发生了什么变化？不，我认为每个人仍然都会因为一切都怪罪于我。如果我接手Twitter，直到出错，那是我的错，100%。我认为会有很多指责。那将是悲惨的，但你仍然想要做到那一点。我的意思是，我希望没有太多的苦难，但我只是认为这对于乐趣来说很重要。对于民主的运作，对于美国作为一个自由国家以及其他许多国家的运作，对于帮助世界范围内的自由，这都是重要的。我认为，如果我们能够增加Twitter作为一个公共平台的可信度，文明风险将会减少。我确实认为这些将是有些痛苦的。我不确定我是否真的能够收购它。我还应该说，意图是在私营公司中保留尽可能多的股东，根据法律规定，我认为可以保留大约2000个左右的股东。这绝对不是为了垄断或最大化我对Twitter的所有权，而是我们将尽力带上尽可能多的股东。你并不一定希望支付出40亿或其他金额的现金。你希望他们和你一起来。从技术上讲，我是有能力负担得起的。但其中一个问题是这不是赚钱的途径。我认为，拥有一个最受信任且广泛包容的公共平台对于文明的未来非常重要，这是我强烈的直觉。你把自己描述为这样的人。我一点也不关心经济。好吧，这是核心。这并不是关于经济，而是关于你认为能够实现道义善行的目标。
You've described yourself, Elon, as a free speech absolutist. But does that mean that there's literally nothing that people can't say and it's okay? Well, I think obviously Twitter or any forum is bound by the laws of the country that it operates in. So obviously there are some limitations on free speech in the US. And of course, Twitter would have to abide by those rules. Right. So you can't incite people to violence. A direct incitement to violence. You can't do the equivalent of crying, fire in a movie theater, for example. No, that would be a crime. It should be a crime. Here's the challenge.
你将自己描述为言论自由至上主义者，但这是否意味着人们可以说任何话都可以？嗯，我觉得很显然，Twitter或任何论坛都受其运营国家法律的约束。因此在美国，言论自由是有一些限制的。当然，Twitter必须遵守这些规定。对，你不能煽动别人进行暴力行为。直接煽动暴力行为是不允许的。比如，你不能在电影院里大喊“火灾”等类似的行为。不，那是违法的。而且应该是一种犯罪行为。这是一个挑战。
It's such a nuanced difference between different things. So there's incitement to violence. That's a no if it's illegal. There's hate speech, which some forms of hate speech are fine. I hate spinach. Main if it's a sauteed cream sauce at me quite nice. But the problem is, so let's say someone says, okay, here's one tweet. I hate politician X. Next tweet is, I wish politician X wasn't alive, as we some of us have said about Putin right now, for example. So that's legitimate speech. Another tweet is, I wish politician X wasn't alive with a picture of their head, with a gun site over it. Or that plus their address. I mean, at some point, someone has to make a decision as to which of those is not okay. Can an algorithm do that? Or surely you need human judgment at some point? No, I think the, like I said, in my view, Twitter should match the laws of the country, and really, there's an obligation to do that.
这些事情之间的差异非常微妙。有煽动暴力的言论。如果违法的话，那是不行的。有仇恨言论，有些形式的仇恨言论是可以接受的。我讨厌菠菜。主要是炒奶油汁的时候非常好吃。但问题是，比如说有人发了一条推文：“我讨厌X政治家。”接下来的一条推文是：“我希望X政治家不要活着”，就像我们现在有些人对普京说的那样。这是合理的言论。而另一条推文是：“我希望X政治家不要活着”，上面附着他们头的图像，头上有一个枪瞄准器的标志。或者加上他们的地址。我是说，在某种程度上，有人必须做出决定，哪些是不可以接受的。一个算法能做到吗？还是说最终仍然需要人的判断力？不，我认为Twitter应该遵守国家的法律，并有责任这样做。
But going beyond that, and having it be unclear who's making what changes to where, having tweets sort of mysteriously be promoted and demoted with no insight into what's going on, having a black box algorithm promote some things and other things, I think this can be quite dangerous. So the idea of opening the algorithm is a huge deal. And I think many people would welcome that of understanding exactly how it's making the decision. And critique it. And critique it. Like an improvement. What I mean is like, I think the code should be on GitHub, you know. So then, and so people can look through it and say, like, I see a problem here. I don't agree with this. They can highlight issues, suggest changes. And the same way that you sort of update Linux or Signal or something like that, you know.
然而，超越这一点，让人不知道谁对哪里做了哪些改变，让推文神秘地被推广或降权而不知道发生了什么，让一个黑匣子算法推广某些东西而不推广其他东西，我认为这可能非常危险。因此，公开算法的想法是很重要的。而且我认为很多人会欢迎这样做，了解它是如何做出决策的。并对其进行批评。并且批评是一种改进。我的意思是，我认为代码应该放在GitHub上，这样人们可以浏览并发现问题。他们可以指出问题，提出改变建议。就像你更新Linux或Signal等软件一样。
But as I understand it, like at some point right now, what the algorithm would do is it would look at, for example, how many people have flagged a tweet as obnoxious. And then at some point a human has to look at it and make a decision as to, does this cross the line or not? That the algorithm itself can't, I don't think yet, tell the difference between legal and okay and definitely obnoxious. The question is, which humans make that call? I mean, do you have a picture of that? Right now, Twitter and Facebook and others, you know, they've hired thousands of people to try to help make wise decisions. And the trouble is that no one can agree on what is wise. How do you solve that? Well, I think we would want to err on this. If in doubt, let the speech let it exist. If it's a grey area, I would say let the tweet exist. But obviously, in a case where there's perhaps a lot of controversy that you would not want to necessarily promote that tweet. I'm not saying this is the, I have all the answers here. But I do think that we want to be just very reluctant to delete things and have just be very cautious with permanent bans. Timeouts, I think, are better than permanent bans.
但据我理解，就像现在某个时刻一样，算法会考虑例如有多少人将某条推文标记为讨厌的。然后在某个时候，一个人必须来看一看并决定是否越过了界限。我认为算法本身目前还无法区分合法、可以和确确实实讨厌的之间的区别。问题是，哪些人会做决定呢？我是说，你有这方面的了解吗？目前，Twitter、Facebook和其他平台已经雇佣了成千上万的人试图帮助做出明智的决策。问题是，没有人能够就哪些决策是明智的达成一致。你怎么解决这个问题呢？嗯，我认为我们应该错在这方面。如果有疑问，就让言论存在。如果是一个灰色地带，我会说让这条推文存在。但显然，在存在争议很多的情况下，你可能不希望推广那条推文。我不是说我拥有所有答案。但我确实认为我们应该非常不愿意删除事物，并且对永久封禁要非常谨慎。暂时禁言比永久封禁更好。
But just in general, like I said, it won't be perfect, but I think we want to really have, like I said, the perception and reality that speech is as free as reasonably possible. And a good sign as to whether there's free speech is someone you don't like allowed to say something you don't like. And if that is the case, then we have free speech. And it's, it's damn annoying when someone you don't like so something you don't like. That is a sign of a healthy functioning free speech situation. So I think many people would agree with that. And look at the reaction online. Many people are excited by you coming in and the changes you're proposing. Some of this are absolutely horrified.
但就总体而言，正如我所说，它不会变得完美，但我认为我们确实希望，如我所说，人们能够真正感受到和实际体验到言论尽可能自由的感觉。一个很好的标志是，当你不喜欢的人被允许说你不喜欢的话时，是否依然存在言论自由。如果是这样的情况，那么我们就有了言论自由。当你不喜欢的人做了你不喜欢的事情时，那真的很烦人。这是一个健康、正常运作的言论自由环境的迹象。所以我认为很多人会同意这一观点。并且看看网上的反应吧，很多人对你的加入和你提出的改变感到兴奋，但也有一些人感到绝对的恐惧。
Here's how they would say it. They would say, wait a sec. We agree that Twitter is an incredibly important town square. It is, it is, you know, where the world exchanges opinion about life and death matters. How on earth could it be owned by the world's richest person? That can't be right. So how, how do you, I mean, what's the response there? Is there any way that you can distance yourself from the actual decision-making that matters on content in some very clear way that is convincing to people?
以下是他们会怎样说。他们会说，等一下。我们都同意 Twitter 是一个非常重要的广场。你知道的，世界上人们在这里交换对生死事件的意见。怎么可能它会被世界上最富有的人所拥有呢？这肯定是不对的。那么，你们如何回应呢？你们是否可以以一种明确且令人信服的方式与实际决策上的内容保持距离？
Well, like I said, I think the, it's very important that like the algorithm be open sourced and that any manual adjustments be identified like, so if this tweet, if somebody did something to a tweet, it's, there's information attached to it that this, that action was taken. And I, I, I, I, I would personally be, you know, in their editing tweets. But you'll know if something was done to, to promote the mode or otherwise affect a tweet. You know, as for media sort of ownership, I mean, you've got, you know, Mark Zuckerberg owning Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp. And with a share ownership structure that will have Mark Zuckerberg the 14th still controlling those entities. So, like literally. Well, certainly the, we're going to have that at Twitter. If you commit to opening up the algorithm, that, that definitely gives some level of confidence.
嗯，就像我说的那样，我认为算法的开源非常重要，并且任何手动调整都应该被标识出来，所以如果有人对一条推文做了一些操作，它会附带有关这个操作的信息。对于推文编辑，我个人认为，你会知道是否对推文进行了修改，无论是为了宣传还是对推文产生其他影响。至于媒体所有权方面，你知道，马克·扎克伯格拥有Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp，而且通过股权结构，马克·扎克伯格第14代仍然控制这些实体，就是字面上的意思。嗯，请确保在Twitter上承诺公开算法，这肯定会给人一定的信心。
Talk about, talk about some of the other changes that you've proposed. So, you, the edit button, that's, that's definitely coming. If you, if you have your way. Yeah. Yeah. And how do you, how do you, I think, I mean, one, frankly, the, the, the, the top priority I have, I would have is, is eliminating the, the spam and, and scam bots. And the bot armies that are in Twitter. You know, I think, I think these, these, these, these, these, these, these, these, these, these, influence the, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they make the product much worse. If I, if I had a Dogecoin for every crypto scam I saw. We'd have more, you know, about 100 billion Dogecoin.
让我们谈谈你提出的一些其他变化。你提到的编辑按钮肯定会出现，如果你能实现的话。是的。那么，我想问一下，我觉得优先级最高的是消除Twitter上的垃圾信息、欺诈机器人和机器人军团。我认为它们严重影响了产品质量。如果我每看到一个加密货币骗局就获得一枚狗狗币的话，我们就会有大约1000亿个狗狗币了。
Do you regret sparking a sort of storm of excitement over Doge and, you know, wet, wet, it's gone or? I mean, I think Doge is fun and, you know, I've always said don't bet the form of Dogecoin. FYI, it's good, you know. But I, I think it's, it's, I like Doge's and I like memes and it's got both of those. And, but just on the, on the edit button, how, how do you get around the problem of, so someone tweets Elon rocks and it's tweeted by 2 million people. And, and then, then after that they edit it, I'm, Elon sucks. And, and then all those retweets, they're all embarrassed and, how do you, how do you avoid that type of changing of meaning so that retweeters are exploited?
你对于引发一场兴奋的风暴，关于Doge狗币的事情，你后悔了吗？你知道，湿湿的，但现在已经过去了，还是怎样？我的意思是，我觉得Doge狗币很有趣，而且我一直说过不要把赌注放在狗币上。顺便说一句，它还不错，你知道的。但是，我对Doge狗币感兴趣，也喜欢梗，而这个都有。但是，就修改按钮而言，你如何解决这个问题呢？比如，有人发推说Elon棒极了，然后被2百万人转发了。之后他们修改成了我错看了，Elon烂透了。然后所有那些转发的人都感到尴尬，如何避免这种意义的改变，以免利用转发者？
Well, I think, you know, you, you, you don't only have the edit capability for a short period of time and probably the thing to do upon the edit would be to zero out all retweets and favorites. Okay. I'm open to ideas though, you know. So in one way, the algorithm works kind of well for you right now. I just, I wanted to share this. This is, so this is a typical tweet of, of mine kind of lame and wordy and whatever. And look at, and the amazing response it gets is this. Oh my God, 97 likes. And then I tried another one. And, 29,000 likes. So the algorithm at least seems to be at the moment, you know, if Elon Musk expand to the world immediately. I, not bad, right? Yeah, I guess so. I mean, that is good. Cool.
好的，我觉得，你知道，你，你，你不只是有一个短暂时间的编辑能力，而且在编辑之后的做法可能是把所有的转发和点赞清空。好的。不过，我愿意听听你的意见，你知道。所以从某种程度上来说，算法现在对你来说确实起到了作用。我只是想分享一下这个。这是我典型的推文，有点无聊啰嗦什么的。而看看，它竟然得到了这么大反响。哇哦，97个赞。然后我试了另一个。结果是，29000个赞。所以目前看来，这个算法对于如果埃隆·马斯克立刻扩展到世界来说，至少似乎还不错，对吧？是的，我猜是这样。酷！
I mean, you, but you've, so help us understand how it is you've built this incredible following on Twitter yourself when, I mean, some of the people who love you the most look at some of what you tweet and they, they, they think it's somewhere between embarrassing and crazy. Some of it's amazing. I mean, it's a little. But, but, but, but it's, is that, is that actually why it's worked or why, why is it worked? I mean, I don't know.
我的意思是，你，但你已经，所以帮助我们理解一下，你是如何在Twitter上建立起这样一个令人难以置信的粉丝群的，就连那些最爱你的人也会看着你发的一些推文觉得它们在尴尬和疯狂之间。其中一些是很了不起的。我的意思是，有一点点。但是，但是，但是，这难道不是它取得成功的原因吗？为什么它能够成功呢？我是说，我不知道。
I mean, I'm, you know, tweeting more or less stream of consciousness, you know, it's not like, let me think about some grand plan about my Twitter or whatever, you know, I'm like, literally, you know, on the toilet or something. I'm like, oh, this is funny. And then tweet that out, you know. That's, that's, that's like most of them. You know, oversharing. But you are obsessed with getting the most out of every minute of your day. And so why not? You know, so I don't know. I just like try to tweet out like things that are interesting or funny or, you know, and then people seem to like it.
我的意思是，你知道的，我差不多是在心血来潮地发推文，你知道的，不像是让我想想关于我的推特上的一个伟大计划或者其他什么的，你知道的，我就是，字面上地，你懂的，就是在上厕所或者什么的。我就是觉得，哦，这个挺有趣，然后发出去，你知道的。那就是，那就是大部分的情况。你知道的，我会分享过多的东西。但是你总是痴迷于充分利用每分钟的时间。所以为什么不呢？你知道的，所以我不知道。我只是试着发一些有趣或者好笑的事情，你知道的，然后人们似乎喜欢。
So if, if you are unsuccessful, actually, let me, before I ask that, let me ask this. In fact, I don't. Yeah. So how can I say is funding secured? I have sufficient assets to complete the, it's not a forward looking statement. Blah, blah, blah. I have to, I mean, I can do it if possible. Right. So, and I should say actually even in the, originally the, with the, what tells the back in the day, the funding was actually secured. I want to be clear about that. In fact, this may be a good opportunity to, to clarify that. If funding wasn't being secured and I should say, like, why, why do I not have respect for the SEC in that situation? And I don't mean to blame everyone at the SEC, but certainly the San Francisco office.
所以假设，假设你不成功，实际上，在我询问之前，让我先问这个问题。事实上，我并不知道。是的。那么我应该如何说资金已经确保了呢？我有足够的资产来完成，这不是一个前瞻性陈述。呃，呃，呃。我必须这样说，如果可能的话。对。所以，实际上，我也应该说，以前从某种程度上来说，那时资金确实是已经确保了的。我想要明确这一点。事实上，这可能是一个很好的机会来澄清这一点。如果资金没有被确保，而且我应该说，为什么我在那种情况下不尊重证券交易委员会呢？我并不是要责怪证券交易委员会的每个人，但肯定是旧金山办事处的人员。
It's because the SEC knew that funding was secured. But they pursued the, an active public investigation nonetheless. At the time, Tesla was in a precarious financial situation. And I was told by the banks that if I did not agree to settle with the SEC, that they would, the banks would cease providing working capital and Tesla would go bankrupt immediately. So that's like having a gun to your child's head. So I was forced to concede to the SEC, unlawfully, those bastards. And, and, and now they, they, they, it makes it look like I lied when I did not in fact lie. I was, I was forced to admit that I lied to save Tesla's life. And that's the only reason.
这是因为证监会知道资金已得到保证。尽管如此，他们仍然积极进行了公开调查。当时，特斯拉处于一个不稳定的财务状况。并且银行告诉我，如果我不同意与证监会和解，他们将停止提供运作资金，特斯拉将立即破产。这就像是把枪顶在你孩子的头上。所以我被迫向证监会让步，违法了，那些混蛋。现在他们让人看起来像我撒谎了，事实上我并没有撒谎。我被迫承认撒谎是为了挽救特斯拉的生命，这是唯一的原因。
Given what's actually happened, given what's actually happened to Tesla since then though, aren't you glad that you didn't take it private? Yeah, I mean, it's difficult to pretty self in the position at the time. Tesla was under the most relentless short seller attack in the history of the stock market. The system called short and distort, where the barrage of negativity that Tesla was experiencing from short sellers in Wall Street was beyond all belief. Tesla was the most shorted stock in the history of stock markets. This is saying something. So, you know, this was affecting our ability to hire people. It was affecting our ability to sell cars. It was, it was, yeah, it was terrible. Yeah, they wanted Tesla to die so bad they could taste it. Well, most of them have paid the price. Yes. Where are they now?
考虑到实际发生的事情，考虑到自那时起特斯拉所经历的一切，你难道不庆幸当时没有将其私有化吗？是的，我的意思是，在当时，把自己置身其中是很困难的。特斯拉遭受了股市历史上最为猛烈的空头攻击。这种被称为做空和失实宣传的系统，特斯拉所遭受的来自华尔街空头卖空者的负面评论简直难以置信。特斯拉成为了股市历史上被做空最多的股票，这可不是说说而已。所以，你知道的，这影响了我们招聘人才的能力。影响了我们销售汽车的能力。是的，这是可怕的。是的，他们如此希望特斯拉破产到无法再维持了。好吧，他们中的大多数已经付出了代价。是的。他们现在在哪里？
So, that was a really strong statement. I mean, obviously a lot of people who support you, I would have thought, would say, you have so much to offer the world on the upside, on the vision side. Don't waste your time getting distracted by these battles that bring out negativity and make people feel that you're being defensive or… People don't like fights, especially with powerful government authorities. They'd rather buy into your dream. Aren't you encouraged by people just to edit that temptation out and go with the bigger story?
所以，这是一个非常有力的陈述。我的意思是，显然有很多支持你的人，我本以为他们会说，你在积极方面，愿景方面对世界有很多贡献。不要浪费时间被这些战斗分散注意力，这些战斗带来负面情绪，让人觉得你在辩护或者...人们不喜欢争斗，特别是与强大的政府机构对抗。他们更愿意相信你的梦想。你不觉得被人们鼓励去删掉这种诱惑，去追求更宏大的故事吗？
Well, I mean, I would say, like, you know, I'm so under a mixed bag. You know, I mean… Well, you're a fighter and you don't like to lose and you are determined that you don't, basically. I mean, you are… Sure, I don't like to lose. I'm not sure many people do. But the truth matters to me a lot. Really, like, sort of pathologically, it matters to me.
嗯，我的意思是，就像你知道的那样，我感觉自己有点不知所措。你知道，我的意思是...嗯，你是一个斗士，不喜欢失败，你坚定地决心不失败。我的意思是，你...当然，我不喜欢失败。我不确定有多少人会喜欢。但对我来说，真相非常重要。真的，它对我来说几乎是一种病态的重要。
OK, so you don't like to lose. If, in this case, you are not successful in, you know, the board does not accept your offer, you've said you won't go higher. Is there a plan B? There is. I think we would like to hear a little bit about plan B. For another time, I think. Another time? Yeah. All right. That's a nice tease.
好的，所以你不喜欢失败。如果在这种情况下，你的提议被董事会拒绝了，你说你不会再加价。那有没有计划B？有的。我觉得我们想多听一点关于计划B的内容。以后再说吧，我想。以后？是的。好吧，这是一个不错的暗示。
All right, so I would love to try to understand this brain of yours more, Ylan. I… With your permission, I'd like to just play this. This is the… Oh, actually, before we do that, he was one of the… of the thousands of questions that people asked. I thought this was actually quite a good one. If you could go back in time and change one decision you made along the way, do your own edit button? Which one would it be and why? Do you really like a career decision or something? Just any decision over the last few years, like your decision to invest in Twitter in the first place or your… Anything? I mean, the worst business decision I ever made was not starting Tesla with just JB's travel. By far, the worst decision I've ever made is not just starting Tesla with JB. That's number one by far.
好的，Ylan，我非常愿意尝试更好地理解你的思维。如果可以，我想直接进行一下探索。这是...哦，实际上，在我们开始之前，有一个问题。这是在人们提出的成千上万个问题中，我觉得这个问题挺好的。如果你能回到过去，改变自己的一次决定的话，你会怎么选择？像职业决策或其他什么的？过去几年中，比如你最初决定投资Twitter的决定，或者...任何决定？我的意思是，我曾经做过的最糟糕的商业决策就是没有和JB一起创办特斯拉。这绝对是我做过的最糟糕的决策，没有与JB一起创办特斯拉。这是第一名，无疑的。
All right, so JB's travel was the visionary co-founder who was obsessed with and knew so much about batteries. And your decision to go with Tesla, the companies that was, meant that you got locked into what you'd concluded was a weird architecture now. There's a lot of confusion. Tesla did not exist in any… Tesla was a shell company with no employees, no intellectual property when I invested. A false narrative has been created by one of the other co-founders, Martin Everhard. I don't want to get into the into the nastiness here, but I didn't invest in an existing company. We created a company. And ultimately, the creation of a company was done by JB and me. And unfortunately, there's someone else, another co-founder who has made it his life's mission to make it sound like he created the company, which is false.
好的，JB的旅程是一个有远见的联合创始人，对电池非常着迷并且对其有很多了解。而你决定选择特斯拉，这家刚刚成立的公司，意味着你陷入了一个你认为很奇怪的架构中。存在很多混乱。当我进行投资时，特斯拉只是一个没有员工、没有知识产权的空壳公司。其中一个其他联合创始人，马丁·埃弗哈德，制造了一个虚假的叙述。我并没有投资一个已经存在的公司，而是我们创建了一个公司。最终，公司的创建是由JB和我完成的。不幸的是，还有另一个联合创始人一直把它当作自己一生的使命，让别人误认为他创立了这家公司，但这是错误的。
Wasn't there another issue right at the heart of the development of the Tesla Model 3, where Tesla almost went bankrupt? And I think you have said that part of the reason for that was that you overestimated the extent to which it was possible at that time to automate a factory. Huge amount was spent kind of over automating and it didn't work. And it nearly took the company down. Is that fair? I mean, first of all, it's important to understand what is Tesla actually accomplished that is most noteworthy. It is not the creation of an electric vehicle or creating electric vehicle prototype or low volume production of a car. There have been hundreds of car startups over the years, hundreds. And in fact, at one point, Bloomberg counted up the number of electric vehicle startups and they got to almost 500. So the hard part is not creating a prototype or going into limited production. The absolutely difficult thing, which has not been accomplished by an American car company in 100 years, is reaching volume production without going bankrupt. That is the actual hard thing. The last company, American company to reach volume production without going bankrupt was Chrysler in the 20s. And it nearly happened to Tesla. Yes, but it's not like, oh geez, I guess if we'd just done more manual stuff, things would have been fine. Of course not. That is definitely not the case. So we basically messed up almost every aspect of the Model 3 production line from cells to packs to driving voters, motors, body line, the paint shop, final assembly, everything. Everything was messed up. And I lived in the Fremont and Nevada factories for three years, fixing that production line, running around like a maniac through every part of that factory, living with the team. I stepped on the floor so that the team who was going through a hard time could see me on the floor. They knew that I was not in some ivory tower. When whatever pain they experienced, I had it more.
特斯拉Model 3的开发过程中，有没有另一个核心问题，使得特斯拉几乎破产？我记得你说过，其中部分原因是你高估了当时自动化工厂的程度。巨额资金花在了过度自动化上，但并没有成功。这几乎导致了公司破产。这样说公平吗？首先，重要的是要了解特斯拉真正取得了哪些值得注意的成就。它并不是创建一辆电动车或者制造电动车原型或小批量生产一辆车。这些年来，汽车初创公司有数百家，数百家。事实上，有一段时间，彭博社统计了电动汽车初创公司的数量，达到了将近500家。因此，困难的不是创建原型或进行有限生产。真正困难的事情是，100年来，没有一家美国汽车公司能够实现大规模生产而不破产。最后一家在不破产的情况下实现大规模生产的美国公司是20世纪的克莱斯勒。而特斯拉几乎陷入了同样的境地。是的，但这并不是说，哦天哪，如果我们只多做一些手工操作，事情就会好起来。当然不是。绝对不是这样。因此，从电池到包装，再到驱动电机、车身装配线、涂装车间和最终总装，我们基本上弄砸了Model 3生产线的每一个环节。我在弗里蒙特和内华达工厂住了三年，修复了那条生产线，像个疯子一样在整个工厂的每个部分里奔跑，与团队同甘共苦。我亲自下到生产线上，让正在经历艰难时期的团队看到我。他们知道我没有在象牙塔里，无论他们经历的痛苦有多大，我都经历过了。
And some people who knew you well actually thought you were making a terrible mistake, that you were driving yourself to the edge of Sanity almost. Yes, true. And that you were in danger of making bad choices. And in fact, I heard you say last week, Elon, that you, because of Tesla's huge value now, and the significance of every minute that you spend, that you are in danger of sort of obsessing over it, spending all this time to the point of, to the edge of Sanity. That doesn't sound super wise, isn't there? Like, your time, your completely sane, centered, rested time and decision making is more powerful and compelling than that sort of, I can barely hold my eyes open.
一些了解你的人实际上认为你正在犯下一个可怕的错误，你正在几乎将自己推向精神崩溃的边缘。是的，说的没错。他们认为你可能会做出糟糕的选择。事实上，上周我听你说过，由于特斯拉现在的巨大价值和你每分每秒的重要性，你可能会沉迷其中，花费过多时间，甚至到达精神崩溃的边缘。这听起来并不明智，不是吗？像你的时间，完全理智、冷静、休息充足的时间和决策，比那种我几乎睁不开眼睛的状态更强大和有说服力。
So surely it should be an absolute strategic priority to look after yourself. I mean, there wasn't any other way to make it work. There were three years of hell, 17, 18, 18, 19, with three years, this longest period of excruciating pain in my life. There wasn't any other way. And we barely made it. And we were on the regular edge of bankruptcy the entire time. So when you draw one, sorry, I don't like it. Those were three, three, so so much pain. But it had to be done or Tesla would be dead. When you looked around the Gigafactory that we saw images of earlier last week and just see where the company has come. I mean, do you feel that this challenge of figuring out the new way of manufacturing, that you actually have an edge now, that it's different, that you figured out how to do this. And from those three years, what won't be repeated, you've actually figured out a new way of manufacturing.
所以，确保自己的良好状态应该是绝对的战略重点。我的意思是，没有其他办法使它发挥作用。有三年的痛苦，17、18、18、19年，这是我一生中最痛苦的时期之一。没有其他办法。我们几乎无法维持下去。整个时间，我们一直处在破产的边缘。所以，当你画下这个，抱歉，我不喜欢它。这些是三个三个非常痛苦的岁月。但这是必须的，否则特斯拉就会倒闭。当你环顾 Gigafactory，我们上周早些时候看到的照片，看到公司发展到了哪个地步。我的意思是，你是否感到，研究新的制造方式这个挑战，你现在是否占据优势，是否有所不同，是否找到了方法。在那三年中，不会再次发生类似的事情，你们实际上找到了一种新的制造方式。
At this point, I think I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth. Please, that's. I can tell you how every damn part in that car is made. Basically, you should just live on the factory. You live in the factory for three years and. That was nice. That was fine, you know, to something? Someone wants to compose a symphony to that expression of confidence, something like that. I have no idea what that is. Anyway, yeah, every aspect of a car of six weeks this Sunday, I know. I mean, you talk about scale right now. You're in the middle of writing your new master plan. And you've said that scale is at the heart of it. Why does scale matter? Why are you obsessed with it? What are you thinking?
此时此刻，我觉得我对制造业的了解比地球上任何活着的人都要多。请听我说，我可以告诉你汽车中每个该死的零件是如何制造出来的。基本上，你应该住在工厂里。你在那里住上三年。那感觉不错。那感觉还不错，你知道吗，就像要有人想创作一部交响乐曲表达这种自信，类似这样的东西。我完全不知道那是什么。无论如何，是的，我对六周后的汽车每个方面都了如指掌。我是说，你现在正在撰写你的新总体规划，你还说规模是其中的核心。为什么规模如此重要？你为什么对此如此着迷？你在想什么？
Yeah, well, see, in order to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy, there must be scale because we've got a transition, a vast economy that is currently overly dependent on fossil fuels to a sustainable energy economy. One where the energy is. Yeah, I mean, we've got to do it. So the energy's got to be sustainably generated with wind solar, hydro, geothermal. I'm a believer in nuclear as well, I think you have a talk about. Since solar and wind is intermittent, you have to have stationary storage batteries. And then we're going to transition all transport to electric. If we do those things, we have a sustainable energy future. The faster we do those things, the less risk we put to the environment. So sooner is better. And so scale is very important. It's not about fresh releases, it's about tonnage. What was the tonnage of batteries produced and obviously done in a sustainable way. And our estimate is that approximately 300 terawatt-hours of battery storage is needed to transition transport electricity and heating and cooling to a fully electric situation. Others may. There may be some different estimates out there, but our estimate is 300 terawatt-hours. Yeah.
嗯，好吧，你看，为了加速可持续能源的出现，必须要有规模，因为我们需要将现有过度依赖化石燃料的庞大经济转变为可持续能源经济。其中能源是可以的，嗯，我的意思是，我们必须这样做。因此，能源必须通过风能、太阳能、水能和地热能可持续地发电。我也是核能的支持者，我认为你应该对此进行讨论。由于太阳能和风能是间歇性的，我们需要有静态储能电池。然后我们将所有交通工具转向电动化。如果我们做到了这些，我们就能拥有可持续能源的未来。我们越快地做这些，就越少给环境带来风险，所以越早越好。因此，规模非常重要。这不是关于新鲜的推出，而是关于吨位。我们生产的电池有多少吨，显然必须是可持续的方式完成。我们的估计是，为了将交通、电力和冷热供暖过渡为全电动形式，大约需要300太瓦时的电池储能。可能还有其他估计存在，但我们的估计是300太瓦时。嗯。
So we dug into this a lot in the interview that we put last week. And so people can go in and hear that more. But I mean, the context is that is, I think about a thousand times the current install battery capacity. I mean, the scale up needed is breathtaking, basically. So your vision is to commit Tesla to try to deliver on a meaningful percentage of what is needed and what and call on others to do the rest. This is a task for humanity to massively scale up our response to change the energy grid. Yes. It's like basically how fast can we scale and encourage others to scale to get to that 300 terawatt-hour install base of batteries. Right. And then of course, there'll be tremendous need to recycle those batteries, which is. And it makes sense to recycle them because the raw materials are like high grade ore. So people shouldn't think, well, they'd be this big pile of batteries. Nothing to get recycled because even a dead battery pack is worth about a thousand dollars. So. But this is what's needed for a sustainable energy future. So we're going to try to take a set of actions that accelerate the day of a sustainable energy future sooner.
所以在我们上周的采访中我们深入探讨了这个问题。人们可以去听一听更多的细节。但是我的意思是，目前的安装电池容量的规模大约是当前的1000倍。关键是，我们需要大规模扩大规模，这真是令人叹为观止。因此，你的愿景是让特斯拉致力于努力交付所需的一部分，并呼吁其他人完成其余部分。这是一个让人类大规模扩展应对能源网络变革的任务。是的，基本上就是我们需要多快速地扩大规模，并鼓励其他人也扩大规模，以达到300太瓦时的电池安装基数。当然，废旧电池的回收需求也将非常巨大。回收它们是合理的，因为原材料就像高品位矿石。所以人们不应该认为这些电池只是一堆废物，无法回收，因为即使是废弃的电池组也价值约1000美元。但这正是可持续能源未来所需的。因此，我们将尝试采取一系列行动，加速可持续能源未来的到来。
Okay. There's going to be a huge interest in your master plan when you publish that. Meanwhile, I just. I would love to understand more what goes on in the sprain of yours because it is a pretty unique one. I want to play with your permission this very funny opening from SNL, Saturday Night Live. Can we have the volume there actually, please? Sorry. It's an honor to be hosting Saturday Night Live. I mean that. Sometimes after I say something, I have to say, I mean that. So people really know that I mean it. That's because I don't always have a lot of international variation in how I speak, which I'm told makes for great comedy. I'm actually making history tonight as the first person with Asperger's to host SNL. And I think you followed that up with. At least the first person to admit it. The first person to admit it. I mean. So this was a great thing to say. I would love to understand how you think of Asperger's. Whether you can give us any sense of even you as a boy, what the experience was or as you now understand with the benefit of hindsight. Can you talk about that a bit?
好的。当你公布你的总体计划时，你会引起巨大的兴趣。与此同时，我希望能更多地了解你过去的经历，因为它是非常独特的。我想播放一段非常有趣的SNL（Saturday Night Live）的开场表演，你是否同意？可以调高音量吗？对不起。能够主持Saturday Night Live真是我的荣幸。我的意思是真心话。有时候在我说完某些话后，我必须再强调一遍，我是真心的。这是因为我说话的方式没有太大的国际差异，据说这对喜剧很有助益。实际上，今晚我正在创造历史，成为首位主持SNL的自闭症患者。而且我觉得你接着说了一句很好的话。至少是第一个公开承认的人。第一个公开承认的人。我的意思是。这真的是件了不起的事。我很想了解你如何看待自闭症，你是否能给我们一些关于你儿时经历或者现在在回顾中的体会。你能谈谈这个吗？
Well, I think everyone's experience is going to be somewhat different. But I guess for me, the social cues were not intuitive. So I was just very bookish and I didn't understand this. I guess others could intuitively understand what does meant by something. I would just tend to take things very literally as the words as spoken were exactly what they meant. But then that turned out to be wrong. They're not simply saying exactly what they mean. There's all sorts of other things that are meant. It took me a while to figure that out. So, you know, we'll eat quite a lot. I did not have a sort of happy childhood to be frank. It was quite rough. I read lots and lots of books. And so that gradually I understood more from the books that I was reading and watched a lot of movies. And, you know, just it took me a while to understand things that most people intuitively understand.
嗯，我认为每个人的经历都会有所不同。但是对我来说，社交暗示并不直观。所以我就只是个书呆子，对此一无所知。我想其他人可能能直观地理解意味着什么。我只是倾向于将事情理解得很字面，因为所说的话确切地表达了它们的意思。但后来证明我是错的。他们并不只是简单地说出自己的意思。还有很多其他的含义。我花了很长时间才弄明白这一点。所以，你知道，我们会吃很多东西。坦率地说，我的童年并不快乐。相当困难。我读了很多书。所以渐渐地，我从阅读的书和看了很多电影中理解得更多。你知道的，要花一些时间去理解大多数人能够直观地理解的事情。
So I've wondered whether it's possible that that was in a strange way an incredible gift to you and indirectly to many other people. In as much as brains plastic and they go where the action is. And if for some reason the external world and social cues which so many people spend so much time and energy and mental energy obsessing over, if that is partly cut off, isn't it possible that that is partly what gave you the ability to understand inwardly the world at a much deeper level than most people do? I suppose that's certainly possible. I think there's maybe some value also from a technology standpoint because I found it rewarding to spend all night programming computers just by myself. And I think most people, most people don't enjoy typing strange symbols into a computer by themselves all night. They think that's not fun. But I thought it was, I really liked it. So I just program all night by myself and I found that quite enjoyable. But I think that is not normal. So, I mean, it does, you know, I've thought a lot about, it's a riddle to a lot of people of how you've done this, how you've repeatedly innovated in these different industries. And it does, you know, every entrepreneur sees possibility in the future and then acts to make that real. It feels to me like you see possibility just more broadly than almost anyone and can connect with it all. So you see scientific possibility based on a deep understanding of physics and knowing what the fundamental equations are, what the technologies are that are based on that science and where they could go, you see technological possibility. And then really unusually, you combine that with economic possibility. Like what it actually would cost, is there a system you can imagine where you could affordably make that thing? And that sometimes you then get conviction that there is an opportunity here, put those pieces together and you could do something amazing.
所以我一直在想，是否有可能那样以一种奇特的方式是给了你一个难以置信的礼物，间接地也给了许多其他人。因为大脑是具有可塑性的，它们会去跟随行动。如果由于某种原因，外部世界和社交暗示，这是那么多人花费了大量时间和精力去纠结的事情，如果在某种程度上被切断了，那么难道不可能正是这部分使你能够比大多数人更深层次地理解内心世界吗？我想这是有可能的。从科技角度来看，可能也有一些价值，因为我发现整晚一个人编程计算机是有回报的。但我认为大多数人并不喜欢整晚一个人在计算机上输入奇怪的符号。他们认为那不是乐趣。但我觉得很好，我真的很喜欢。所以我整晚都只是一个人在编程，我觉得很愉快。但我知道这不是正常的。所以，我想很多人都对你如何做到这一点感到困惑，对你在不同行业中一再创新的方式感到困惑。对于每一位创业者来说，他们看到未来的可能性，然后采取行动使之变为现实。对我来说，你似乎看到的可能性比几乎任何人都要广泛，并且能够与之联系起来。你基于对物理学的深入理解，知道基本方程和基于该科学的技术以及它们的发展方向，你看到了科学的可能性。然后非常特别的是，你将这个与经济可能性相结合。像你能不能想象一个实惠的系统来生产那个东西？有时你确信这里存在着机会，然后把这些要素放在一起，你可以做出一些令人惊奇的事情。
Yeah, I think one aspect of whatever condition I had was I was just absolutely obsessed with truth, but just obsessed with truth. And so the obsession with truth is why I studied physics because physics attempts to understand the truth of the universe. Physics just is just what are the provable truths of the universe and truths that have predictive power. So for me, physics was sort of a very natural thing to study. Nobody made me study it. It was intrinsically interesting to understand the nature of the universe and then computer science or information theory. Also to just understand logic and there's an argument that that information theory is actually operating at a more fundamental level than even physics. So just yeah, physics and information theory were really interesting to me.
是的，我认为我所拥有的任何一种状态的一个方面就是我对真理痴迷，完全痴迷于真理。因此，对真理的迷恋是我学习物理学的原因，因为物理学试图理解宇宙的真相。物理学就是试图揭示宇宙中可证实的真理和具有预测能力的真理。对我来说，物理学是一件非常自然的事情去学习的。没有人强迫我去学习它。理解宇宙的本质对我来说本身就是一件非常有趣的事情，然后还有计算机科学或信息理论。另外，只是为了理解逻辑，可以说信息理论实际上在更基本的层面上操作，甚至比物理学还要 fundamental。所以，是的，对我来说，物理学和信息理论真的非常有趣。
When you say truth, I mean it's not like some people, what you're talking about is the truth of the universe, the fundamental truth that drive the universe. It's like a deep curiosity about what this universe is, why we're here, simulation, we've got time to go into that. But I mean, you're just deeply curious about what this is for, what this is, this whole thing.
当你说真相时，我的意思是这与一些人不同。你在谈论的是宇宙的真相，驱动宇宙的基本真理。就像对这个宇宙是什么，我们为什么在这里，模拟等等有着一种深刻的好奇心，我们有时间去深究这些。但是我的意思是，你对这是为了什么，这一整个事物有着深深的好奇心。
Yes, I mean I think the why of things is very important. I actually, when I was an art, so young teens, I quite depressed about the meaning of life and I was trying to sort of understand the meaning of life, looking at reading religious texts and reading books on philosophy. I got into the German philosophers, which is definitely not wise if you're a young teenager, I have to say. New but dark. So much better read as an adult. And then actually I ended up reading the H.I.A.G.A.S. Guide to the Galaxy. Which is actually a book on philosophy, just sort of disguised as a silly humor book, but actually the book is actually a philosophy book. And Adams makes the point that it's actually the question that is harder than the answer. You know, this sort of makes a joke that the answer is 42. That number does pop up a lot. And 420 is just 10 times more significant than 42. Make a triangle with 42 degrees and 269. No such thing as a perfect triangle or is there? But even more important than the answer is the question. That was the whole theme of that book. I mean, is that basically how you see meaning then? It's the pursuit of questions.
是的，我是说我认为事物的原因非常重要。实际上，当我还是一个艺术家时，就是很年轻的时候，我对生命的意义感到相当沮丧，我试图去理解生命的意义，阅读宗教文本和哲学书籍。我开始研究德国哲学家，对于一个年轻的青少年来说，这绝对是不明智的选择，我不得不说。新奇但黑暗。但作为成年人的阅读体验会更好。后来，我真正开始阅读《银河系漫游指南》。这实际上是一本关于哲学的书，只是伪装成一个愚蠢有趣的书，但实际上这本书是一本哲学书。亚当斯（Douglas Adams）指出，问题实际上比答案更难。你知道，它开了一个玩笑，说答案是42。这个数字确实经常出现。而420则比42重要十倍。用42度和269度构成一个三角形。完美的三角形不存在，但是有吗？但比答案更重要的是问题本身。这是那本书的整个主题。我的意思是，你是不是也认为意义就是追寻问题呢？
Yeah, so I have a sort of, you know, a proposal for a worldview or a motivating philosophy, which is to understand what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe. And to the degree that we expand the scope and scale of consciousness, biological and digital, we would be better able to ask these questions, to frame these questions, and to understand why we're here, how we got here, what the heck is going on. And so that is my driving philosophy is to expand the scope and scale of consciousness that we may better understand the nature of the universe.
是的，我有一种种类，你知道的，一种关于世界观或者激励哲学的提议，那就是理解在宇宙中寻找关于答案的问题。在我们扩展意识的范围和规模（生物和数字方面），我们将能够更好地提出这些问题、框架这些问题，并理解我们为什么在这里，我们是怎么到这里的，到底发生了什么。所以，我的主要哲学就是扩展意识的范围和规模，以便更好地理解宇宙的本质。
You know, one of the things that was most touching last week was seeing you hang out with your kids. Here's, if I may, you look vaguely like a ventriloquist on me there. I mean, how do you know that's real? So that's X and you know, it was just a delight seeing you hang out with him. And what's his future going to be? I mean, I don't mean him personally, but the world he's going to grow up in. What future do you believe he will grow up in?
知道吗，上周最感人的事情之一就是看到你和你的孩子们一起玩耍。如果我可以这么说的话，你在那里有点像个腹语师。我的意思是，你怎么知道那是真的呢？所以，那是X，看到你和他在一起真是令人愉快。那他的未来会是怎样的呢？我指的不是他个人，而是他将成长的世界。你认为他将在什么样的未来中长大？
Well, I mean, a very digital future. A very different world than I grew up in, that's for sure. But I think we want to obviously do our absolute best to ensure that the future is good for everyone's children. And that, you know, that the future is something that you can look forward to and not feel sad about. You know, you want to get up in the morning and be excited about the future, and we should fight for the things that make us excited about the future. You know, the future cannot just be that one miserable thing after another, solving one sad problem after another. There got to be things that get you excited, like you want to live. These things are very important and you should have more of it. And it's not as if it's a done deal, like it's all to play for. Like the future may be horrible. Still, there are scenarios where it is horrible, but you see a pathway to an exciting future, both on Earth and on Mars and in our minds through artificial intelligence and so forth.
嗯，我的意思是，一个非常数字化的未来。一个与我成长的世界非常不同的世界，这一点是肯定的。但是我认为，我们肯定要尽最大努力确保未来对每个人的孩子都是美好的。你知道，我们希望期待未来，而不是感到悲伤。你知道，早上起来，你应该对未来感到兴奋，并且我们应该为让我们对未来感到兴奋的事情而奋斗。你知道，未来不能只是一个接一个可悲的事情，解决一个接一个悲伤的问题。必须有让你激动的事情，让你想要活下去。这些事情非常重要，你应该有更多这样的事情。并不是说一切都已经决定了，就像一切都尽在掌握。未来可能是可怕的。尽管如此，还是有一些情景可以通向一个令人兴奋的未来，无论是在地球上还是在火星上，还有通过人工智能等方式在我们的头脑中。
I mean, in your heart of hearts, do you really believe that you are helping deliver that exciting future for X and for others? I mean, I'm trying my hardest to do so. I, you know, I love humanity and I think that we should fight for a good future for humanity, and I think we should be optimistic about the future and fight to make that optimistic future happen.
我是说，在你的内心深处，你真的相信你正在为X和其他人带来那个令人兴奋的未来吗？我的意思是，我正竭尽全力这样做。你知道的，我热爱人类，我觉得我们应该为人类的美好未来而奋斗，我认为我们应该对未来保持乐观，并努力使这个乐观的未来成为现实。
Gailon, I think that's a perfect place to close this. Thank you so much for spending time coming here and for the work that you're doing and good luck with finding a wise course through on Twitter and everything else. Give them a hug. Thank you. Thank you, now. That was really fun.
盖伦，我认为这是一个结束的完美场所。非常感谢你抽出时间来到这里，并为你所做的工作祝你好运，希望你在推特和其他事情上能找到明智的方式。给他们一个拥抱。谢谢你。现在谢谢你，真的很有趣。