How Much Dealers Make, Secret to Acquiring 15 Dealerships, Getting the Best Car Deal | Jake Lebowitz
发布时间 2023-05-05 09:00:03 来源
摘要
In this episode, I'm speaking with Jake Lebowitz of Raceway Auto Group in New Jersey. We talk about how much he makes as a dealer, his secret method for acquiring 15 car dealerships, the most profitable customers, why he won't touch Ford dealerships, and tricks to get the best car deal.
(00:00) Intro
(01:08) Raceway Auto Group
(02:40) M&A activity
(06:47) Sourcing strategies
(13:32) Jake's best deal
(17:13) Delegating operations
(21:45) Best and worst customers
(25:09) Jake's thoughts on used cars
(30:23) The uphill battle for small dealerships
(32:42) Which car brands are on the decline
(43:00) How consumers can find good deals
(46:17) Forecasting car prices
(52:42) Wrapping up
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
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Personally, I maybe would have looked at a Ford deal two or three years ago. I won't even do due diligence on a Ford deal. Some may say, hey, you may miss an opportunity. If I can't trust that the upper management is going to take care of the dealer, how can I invest our hard earned dollars into that brand?
个人而言，也许两三年前我会考虑购买福特的交易。但现在我甚至不会对福特的交易进行尽职调查。有人可能会说，嘿，你可能会错过一个机会。但如果我无法相信上层管理层会照顾好经销商，我怎么能把我们辛苦挣来的钱投资到那个品牌呢？
What's up everyone? This is Car dealership guy. You're listening to the Car dealership guide podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market. Let's get into today's episode.
大家好！我是汽车经销商。您正在收听《汽车经销商指南》播客，这是我为您提供最客观透明的汽车市场洞察力的努力。让我们进入今天的剧集。
Jake Leeberwitz is partner and dealer principal at Raceway Auto Group, a 15 store car dealer group in the New Jersey and Pennsylvania region. This episode was a car business masterclass. We spoke about how much money he makes as a dealer, the secrets to profitably acquiring 15 car dealerships, tricks for consumers to get the best car deal, or the most profitable customers out of car dealership, and his blunt message to Elon Musk on EVs. Here's my conversation with Jake Leeberwitz.
杰克·利伯维茨是赛道汽车集团的合伙人和经销商总负责人，在新泽西和宾夕法尼亚地区拥有15家汽车经销商。这期节目是一次汽车业务的大师课。我们谈到了他作为经销商赚取多少钱，成功收购15家汽车经销店的秘诀，消费者如何获得最佳汽车交易或在汽车经销店中获得利润最高的客户，以及他对埃隆·马斯克的电动车的坦率看法。以下是我与杰克·利伯维茨的谈话。
All views of car dealership guy and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
本播客中汽车经销商和来宾的所有观点仅代表其个人意见。不应将任何表达的观点视为财务建议。本播客仅供信息参考之用。
All right, Jake. Let's dive right in. Give us some background on your dealer group. What brand do you represent? Would let's just have some context there.
好的，杰克。让我们直接开始。请告诉我们一些关于你的经销商团队的背景信息。你代表哪个品牌？只是让我们有一些背景信息。
So we are our largest brand is Kia. We have five key dealerships in the Metro, Philadelphia, Jersey, Pennsylvania markets. We also have Hyundai, Chevy, Alvy, Volkswagen, and we've recently acquired a Nissan store. And we have Chrysler Jeep Dodran as well, and a Suzuki truck, which is a, you know, a medium duty truck franchise.
我们最大的品牌是起亚。我们在大都市、费城、新泽西和宾夕法尼亚等市场有五个主要经销店。此外，我们还有现代、雪佛兰、阿尔维、大众，最近还收购了一家尼桑商店。我们还有克莱斯勒吉普道奇，以及铃木卡车，这是一家中重型卡车特许经营店。
And what are your revenues per year? Like give us just some context. How many cars do you sell a year?
您每年的收入情况怎么样呢？请给我们提供一些情境。您每年销售多少辆汽车呢？
We sell anywhere from 1500 to 2200 vehicles per rooftop per year. If you extrapolate that to, you know, group wide, I would say you're probably in the, you know, 3000, 2500 to 3000. You know, a year range and revenue anywhere from 50 to 80 million, a rooftop, I would say. So 50 to 80 million, you have to say roughly 15 rooftops? Yup, yup. So if you do the math, I mean, we're getting close to about a billion in revenue, I would say. It's great. You know, some of the higher volume stores, you can get up to 80 million range, lower volume, maybe 50, 60 million.
我们每个销售点一年售出大约1500至2200辆车。如果你将这个数字推广到整个集团，我认为您大约可以得到2500至3000辆汽车的销售范围，营业收入大约在每个销售点5000万至8000万之间。所以你可以大概估计需要大约15个销售点？没错。那么如果你计算一下，我们的营业收入已经接近10亿美元了。这很不错。一些高销量的店铺，可以达到每个店铺年销售8000万的范围，低销量的店铺可能只有5000万至6000万。
You mentioned to me your dealer group, you guys have been very active with just M&A, acquiring dealerships. How many dealerships have you acquired over the last two years?
你跟我提到了你的经销商组织，你们一直在积极地通过兼并收购来扩大经销商网络。你们在过去的两年里收购了多少家经销商？
Last two years have been pretty active. And we're big on not just buying any deal that comes across the desk. We're big on, you know, doing deals with a lot of efficiency across our platform. So for instance, you know, we might get called on a deal that we think is a good deal. But maybe it's two, three hundred miles outside of one of our markets. And there's not a lot of, you know, people process location efficiency with that deal. Does it mean we won't look at it? But we prefer deals where either we have brand efficiency, market efficiency, people efficiency.
过去两年一直非常活跃。我们非常注重的不仅是购买任何经营交易。我们非常注重的是，通过我们的平台实现高效率的交易。例如，我们可能会接到一个我们认为是好的交易请求。但也许这个交易距离我们市场之一两到三百英里。这个交易的位置效率不高。这意味着我们不会考虑这个交易吗？但是，我们更喜欢那些有品牌效率、市场效率和人员效率的交易。
For instance, we did a deal last April, which was a key deal in Metro Philadelphia. And this was a deal that we, we had interest on it for a long time. We liked the market. We identified the market based on the annual, you know, monthly annual registrations into the market. And we saw that Kia had a lot of upside in that market.
例如，我们在去年四月份完成了一笔交易，这是在费城市场上一个关键的交易。我们对这笔交易很感兴趣，并且已经关注了很长时间。我们喜欢这个市场，并根据每年月度市场注册数量来确定市场。我们认为Kia在这个市场上有很大的发展潜力。
How did you see that Kia had upside?
你是怎么看到Kia有上升空间的？
简单表述：你为什么觉得Kia有发展潜力？
So basically what we'll do is we'll look at a share its Al's report, for instance. And we'll look at how many, you know, competitive vehicles are being sold into that market. And, you know, if Kia has, let's say, you know, 10, 8% share. And the market selling, you know, 12, 1500 cars a month. If you just do the math, you know, you should be doing at least a hundred new Kia's. And then if you outperform and you've conquested and you take share from other brands and you sell out of your market, you could do a hundred and fifty two hundred cars. So, so we're big on also looking at the market and looking at our closest competing dealers.
基本上，我们会看一下某一份报告，比如Al的报告，然后看看销售竞争车型在市场上占有多少份额。如果Kia占有10-8%的份额，市场上每月卖出12,1500辆车。如果你做一下计算，你应该至少卖出100辆新的Kia。如果你表现更好，攻占了市场份额，并从其他品牌中占领了份额，你可能能卖出150-200辆车。因此，我们非常关注市场，并关注我们最接近的竞争经销商。
And if we believe they're dealers that we can take share from, and I'll give you a good example in 2016 we bought Alentown Kia, which is up in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania. Amazing market, amazing people, blue collar. We were new to that market. And what we found is great, hardworking people. If you treat them right, they'll, they'll, you know, buy a car and they'll be happy forever. And when we did that deal, we recognized that there were two or three competitive Kia dealers that were not really that strong in our view. Meaning we were more likely to sell cars into their market than them selling our cars, you know, their own cars into our market.
如果我们相信他们是我们可以从中夺取市场份额的经销商，我可以给你一个好例子，在2016年，我们收购了宾夕法尼亚州利哈伊山谷地区的阿伦敦起亚。那是一个很棒的市场，有很棒的人们，他们是蓝领工人。我们是新进入该市场的。我们发现那里有很多伟大、勤劳的人们，如果你对他们好，他们就会购买汽车，并一直感到满意。当我们做这笔交易时，我们认识到在该市场中有两三个有竞争力的起亚经销商，但在我们看来并不是那么强大。这意味着我们更有可能向他们的市场销售汽车，而不是他们将自己的汽车销售到我们的市场。
Why do you think that is? Is it because you're platform your scale?
你为什么认为是这样的呢？是因为你的平台规模大吗？
为什么你这么认为？是因为你的平台规模很大吗？
No, you know, I think it's understanding the brand. I think it's understanding how to each brand kind of has its own. You know, you kind of have to find your edge with each brand. And I think over the years, so what's your edge?
不，你知道的，我认为重要的是理解品牌。我认为重要的是了解不同品牌各具特色。你必须找到每个品牌的差异点。而且我认为，这些年来，你找到了自己的差异点是什么？
I would say our edge with Kia is where the number one volume Kia dealer group in the region by 70% probably. You know, that gives us massive economies of scale. For instance, if I can display 300, 400, 500 new keys on my website, and you know, the other dealer is displaying 30 new keys on their website. Hey, Google now is solely ranking you on inventory.
我认为我们与起亚的优势是在该地区我们是销量最高的起亚经销商集团，可能高出70％。这为我们带来了巨大的经济规模。例如，如果我可以在我的网站上展示300、400、500辆新的起亚汽车，而另一个经销商只在他们的网站上展示30辆新车。嘿，现在Google只是根据库存来排名你的网站。
They used to rank you more on content and SEO. And now if you have the most inventory, you are the most relevant Kia dealer, no matter what. So you mentioned three Kia stores in three different locations. I think lots of people are wondering and are going to be just fascinated by how do you source these stores? Where do you get like it's just from brokers? Is this from connections and where do you find these stores?
以前他们更注重你的内容和SEO排名。现在，如果你拥有最多的库存，无论你是谁，你都是最相关的起亚经销商。你提到了三家不同地点的起亚店。我认为很多人都很好奇，会对你是如何获得这些店铺感到着迷。你是从经纪人得到的吗？还是通过人脉关系？你是如何找到这些店铺的？
Good question. We've used brokers in the past. We haven't recently in our most recent. We just acquired a Nissan dealership in Creole. There was no broker involved on that.
好问题。我们过去使用过经纪人，但最近并未使用。我们刚刚在Creole收购了一家日产汽车经销店，这并没有涉及到经纪人。
How did you get connected to that store?
你是怎么和那家商店联系上的？
So that store was really just getting connected to the seller building a relationship with the seller identifying. You know, where we may have had leverage, which could be a million things. You may have a piece of real estate in a market that the seller wants. You may have a dealership in another market that the seller wants. But generally, the other thing is a lot of sellers have framework agreements. They can only have say, you know, five of a brand in a market.
那家店实际上只是在建立与卖家之间的联系，认识卖家。你知道，我们可能拥有杠杆，这可以是一百万件事情。你可能在卖家想要的市场拥有一块房地产。你可能在其他市场拥有一家经销商，卖家也想要。但一般来说，其他的一件事是很多卖家有框架协议。他们只能在市场上拥有五个品牌。
So they may want to buy another one of that brand out, you know, in that market. And this may be the store they need to sell. So we identified a that that store gave us significant operational efficiency in the market. When I say that we outsell Honda and Toyota and Hyundai in this market out of a six, maybe a 6,000 square foot building. You know, these other dealers Toyota Honda, their facilities are 30,000 feet. And we have about 30, 40, 50 parking spaces and they have 2,300. In addition, this facility we're in wasn't built to be a car dealership. So we lack, you know, we lack capacity in the shop. We have six bays.
所以他们可能想要再购买那个品牌的另一辆车，在那个市场上。而这家店可能是他们需要销售的店铺。因此，我们确定了这家店在市场中给我们带来了重要的运营效率。当我说我们在这个市场中比本田、丰田和现代销售量还高时，我们是在一个6,000平方英尺的建筑物里完成的。你知道，这些其他汽车经销商的设施面积达到30,000平方英尺，而我们只有大约30、40或50个停车位，而他们有2,300个。此外，我们现在所在的设施并不是为了当汽车经销商而建造的，所以我们在店里缺乏容量。我们只有六个停车位。
We probably need 26 bays. So we basically knew that in order for us to really grow in this market, which we've done. Like I said, we're, you know, top volume in the region out of this store. And we outsell Toyota and Honda in a big market, a big Metro New Jersey market. So we identified that either we need to develop a piece of property, which we be gad doing. And we still are going in that direction.
我们可能需要26个舱位。因此，我们基本上知道，为了在这个市场上真正增长，我们必须采取行动。就像我说的那样，我们是该地区最大的销售商。我们在一个大型的新泽西市场中销售比丰田和本田更多的车辆。因此，我们意识到，要么我们需要开发一块物业（我们很乐意这样做），要么我们需要找到其他解决方案。我们仍在考虑这个方向。
But once this potential deal came across our desk as being, you know, the viable that we can maybe do the deal. We saw, okay, this store has 30 bays. They have 300 parking spots. They have 14 technicians. So what does that give us? It gives us all the flexibility that we needed with Kia. It's right across the street. And now, you know, you don't have to go and develop another piece of land if you don't want to, because you can service more cars, service more use cars. You can hold more used cars. And you've got a lot of efficiency in a market like that. You can leverage your best people.
一旦这个潜在的交易出现在我们的桌面上，我们就觉得这是可行的，也许我们能够达成交易。我们看到，这家店有30个修车车位，300个停车位，14个技师。这给了我们所有我们和Kia打交道所需的灵活性。而且它就在街对面。现在，如果你不想去开发另一片土地，你可以为更多的汽车提供服务，为更多的二手汽车提供服务。你可以持有更多的二手车。在这样的市场上，你可以利用你最好的人员，获得更高的效率。
So it's very much a case by case basis. And you know, it's interesting. You know, you're saying like pretty much real estate. Obviously a major aspect. And we'll talk about that soon. I'm curious, what are you paying for a dealership like that? And like, you know, for what are the margins? What are the revenues?
这很大程度上是根据不同情况而定。有趣的是，你说的基本上是房地产，显然是一个主要方面。我们很快会讨论这个问题。我很好奇，像那样的经销商你花了多少钱？利润率是多少？收入是多少？
So a deal like that. There's significant intangible value there that is hard for anybody except maybe me or, you know, our partners to understand. And basically when I say that, I mean, you know, if you just value Nissan, let's say, maybe Nissan in a good metro market is a three to four multiple, right? So, so just for the audience, three to four times on the net earnings from prior year. Correct.
这样的交易，存在着显著的无形价值，除了我或者我们的合作伙伴，很难有人理解。基本上来说，如果你只是估价日产汽车的话，在好的城市市场，它可能是三到四倍的倍数，也就是上年度净收益的三到四倍。这里指的是净收益的三到四倍的市值。
Three to four times. You try to look at three to five year. It's hard to look at just COVID big banner years and put a multiple on it and say, hey, this is what it's worth. We, we run pro for every deal we do. We run a pro forma on where we basically, because the other thing is your expensive structure is going to change. You're going to have more debt if you're paying more for the store. If you're paying more for the real estate, your rent factor is going to be higher. So we like to basically overlay our planned performance on a pro forma and project, hey, this is what we can do at our average new car use car gross profit. What we believe we can improve the service, you know, labor margins by, for instance, maybe there 66% labor margin, maybe we're seventy four seventy five percent.
三到四倍。你们试着看三到五年。很难仅凭COVID大横幅年份来评估价值并加倍。我们为每笔交易运行专业格式。我们运行格式来确定基准性能，因为你的成本结构会改变。如果你为店铺和房地产支付更多，你会有更多负债。如果你为房租支付更多，你的租金系数会更高。因此，我们喜欢在预测中将计划绩效与基准绩效相叠加，并预测我们可以通过提高服务和劳动力利润率来改善业绩，例如，也许他们的劳动力利润率是66％，我们可以提高到74％-75％。
So we'll extrapolate that and we'll project what that brings us to. And of course, volume, if they're selling 16 eSons and we think we could do 150 eSons, of course, there's upside. there.
我们将推断它的结果，然后预测它会带给我们什么。当然，如果他们销售了16个eSons，而我们认为我们可以做150个eSons，那么当然会产生向上的影响。
So, and what are the returns here projecting like what's the IRR payback period? What are you looking for? So if you just look at that deal, I would say we're looking for 40% IRR give or take. But if you also add back the upside with giving key a more capacity with having the ability to sell more used cars and service more used cars, right? I would say then your IRR can go up another 15 20% because Kia is now, I don't know if you saw the latest carigan report, but I believe Kia was in the mostly in the five X range. Yeah, Kia is killer enough. Yeah, and Hyundai as well.
那么，这里投资的回报率是多少？IRR回收期是多少？你们期望的是什么？如果只看这个交易，我会说我们期望40%左右的IRR。但如果加上通过增加凯亚车辆销售和服务能力所带来的上涨潜力，那么IRR可以再上涨15-20%。你知道吗，最近的卡里根报告显示，凯亚的价格适中，因此凯亚车型的销售和服务能力都非常出色。此外，现代汽车也很厉害。
So if you think about, okay, five X, if I can generate another million in net income with the added capacity, even if it's just on used car, even if it's just on servicing more used cars, then a million out of five X adds what five million and added blue sky value.
所以如果你考虑一下，好的，有五倍的X，如果我能借助增加产能来产生另外一百万的净收入，即使只是在二手车或服务更多二手车上，那么从五倍的X中增加一百万将使价值增加五百万和未来潜在价值。
So this deal is very intriguing and interesting for the audience blue sky you just mean multiples. Blue sky I just mean what is the dealership worth beyond the fixed assets? The intangible value. Yeah, exactly.
对观众来说，这笔交易非常有吸引力和有趣。你所说的“蓝天”意味着多个方面。我指的是除固定资产外，经销商价值的内在价值。对，就是这样。
Tell us about your best deal like you know, I think everyone here wants to know like you've been doing this you guys have done some great deals and what has been your your sweetest deal that you've done.
告诉我们您最好的交易，就像您知道的那样，我认为在这里每个人都想知道，就像您一直在做这些，你们做了一些很棒的交易，你们最甜的交易是什么。
So I believe each deal you have to do at the right time. I believe there's almost a cadence to the way you want to execute deals and I've missed deals where I look back and I'm like, how did I miss that deal? You know, how did I not execute on that? That feels the worst you know like miss missing a deal is so much worse than making a mistake sometimes. Yeah, so it's it happens to the best of us you can't do every deal you can't buy all the real estate.
我认为每个交易都需要在正确的时间进行。我相信在执行交易时有一种近乎节奏的方式，有时我错过一些交易，回过头来思考，我会说，我怎么会错过那笔交易呢？怎么没能在那笔交易上有所斩获呢？错过一个交易感觉很糟糕，有时比犯错还要糟糕。是的，这种情况发生在我们中的各位，你不能做所有的交易，你也不能购买所有的房地产。
You know, I think what's important is doing the right deals at the right time and a lot of a lot of dealers what I've noticed is they want to just buy every dealership they can buy they end up you know spreading themselves thin. And they actually go backwards you know they're less efficient because they're just doing their you know they don't have the capacity to take on the deals they're doing.
你知道吗，我认为重要的是在正确的时间做正确的生意，我发现很多经销商都想尽可能多地收购其他经销商，结果变得过于分散。他们实际上会退步，因为他们只是在做业务，没有能力承担他们正在做的生意。因此，重点是做正确的生意，而不是做更多的生意。
Whereas we very much look for efficiency we look for markets with a lot of upside and if we're paying say 10 million blue sky goodwill. We need to see that we can take that store to being worth 20 million or 25 million blue sky and ultimately we're not really sellers.
虽然我们非常看重效率，但我们也希望找到有很大上涨空间的市场。如果我们支付了1000万的无形资产，我们需要确信我们能把这个门店的价值提高到2000万或者2500万的无形资产。最终，我们不是真正的卖家。
We more so want to identify good deals generate efficiencies and markets generate cash flow for a long time and so I would say our best deal raw numbers I would say is is key in freehold. At the time when when I we bought this store 2017 they were losing money the reputation was completely battered. I renamed the store from Kia of freehold to raceway Kia because there's a local race track and people are familiar with raceway.
我们更希望发现好的交易，提高效率，开拓市场，为长远的现金流创造可能。我会说，我们最好的交易实际上是在自由地产。当我们在2017年购买这家店时，它们亏损严重，声誉已经彻底受损。我将店面从自由地产Kia更名为赛道Kia，因为当地有一个赛道，人们熟知赛道Kia。
So I went in I rebranded built a team took care of the the community which I'm a big believer in is give back to your local community sponsor literally give back to your local police directly give back to your local charities. So anything you can do in the community during covid giving masks donating you know pp medical supplies all of that stuff that goes a long way. Freehold has been a massive deal for us we bought the store for south of 2 million let's just say and I would say we returned that the first year in what was a very challenging year kind of growing the business.
于是我进去了，重新定位品牌，建立了一个团队，并照顾了社区，我坚信回馈当地社区，赞助当地警察，直接给予当地慈善机构回馈。因此，在covid期间，你可以在社区中做任何事情，例如捐赠口罩、医疗用品等，这些都会产生长远的影响。对我们来说，Freehold是非常重要的一笔生意，我们花了不到两百万的费用购买了这家店，并且我会说，我们在第一年就回报了这笔费用，尽管这是一个非常具有挑战性的年份，但我们在经营业务上取得了进一步的增长。
And and now I would say this is one of our best stores platform wide and like I said there's so much upside here with said store worth to they do you think. I don't really want to speak in in in real numbers terms I'll leave it up to you carigan and hey and a lot of these places or public yeah you know publics you could see what their top key of stores are making.
现在我要说，这是我们最好的商店之一，像我之前说的，这个商店还有很大的上涨空间，你认为这家商店值多少钱呢？我不想用具体数字说话，我会让你来决定卡里甘，还有这些商店很多都是公开的，你可以看到它们最好的商店都赚了多少钱。
So just assume that you know if we're in the top 20 or 25% which we we are extrapolate that multiply it by 5 and you have an idea of what this store is maybe where.
因此，假设您知道我们在前20或25％中，我们是的，那么将其外推乘以5，您就可以大致了解这家商店的位置。
So one thing I'm interested in is you know 15 stores. How do you structure your partnerships right because you're obviously not at every single store every single day managing the business and so really curious you know how you align incentives you know do you bring operating partners at every store how does it tell me about tell us about that world.
我感兴趣的是关于你们15家店的结构合作方式。因为显然你们无法每天都在每一家店里管理业务，所以我非常好奇你们如何对齐激励机制，是否会在每个店铺都带来运营合作伙伴。可以和我们分享一下这个世界的情况吗？
Good question. We like to give our operating partners a lot of incentive that doesn't necessarily mean we give them equity but it does mean that if they achieve certain growth rates or certain income thresholds within a certain period of time that they can earn a bigger piece of whatever maybe the net income is or if it's a.
好问题。我们喜欢为我们的运营伙伴提供很多的激励，但这并不一定意味着我们会给他们股权，而是意味着如果他们在一定时间内实现了某些增长率或收入门槛，他们可以赚取更大的净收入份额或其他的什么。
You know it sells manager as they sell more cars they earn a bigger piece of the gross profit our it depends on the market if if I have a great general manager in one market that I believe can operate more than one store then we'll let that you know specific operator get involved in two three four stores and earn out of all those stores right. Now you can't pay everybody on everything so you have to kind of pick your pick your spots of pay this is a great operator in this market and if he does a great job in this store let's pay him on it and it all has to work so we generally will you know we'll run a pro forma on compensation and we'll see if this store goes on and we're going to get the right. We'll see if this store goes from you know making a million a year to making three four million a year what is this gentleman deserve based on or woman deserve based on the work and now we're more and more looking into letting those operators by real equity down the line so hey if you really help us take off in this store. You know two three four years we're going to let you buy five ten fifteen percent equity at a maybe a discount to whatever the stores actually worth and then it gives them a real incentive to take care of the business like it's their own to grow the culture to build the culture and to do to do business the right way.
销售经理销售的车越多，他们就能得到更大比例的毛利润，但这取决于市场。如果我认为一个很棒的总经理可以在一个市场上经营多家店铺，那么我们会让这个经营者参与到两三四家店铺并从这些店铺赚钱。但不能为每个人都支付所有的东西，所以必须根据情况选择支付的对象。我们通常会根据报酬进行预测，并看看这家店是否能获得成功。如果这家店从一年赚100万美元，增长至三四百万美元，这位经营者应得到多少报酬。现在，我们越来越多地考虑让这些经营者在未来购买真实的股权，让他们获得真正的动机来照顾业务，增加文化，以及用正确的方式做生意。如果他们在这家店铺为我们带来了长足的发展，我们将为其提供让其在业务价值更低的情况下购买5％，10％或15%的股权的机会。
I think a lot of old school dealers were properly incentivizing you know general managers for the long term and I think a lot of dealers found out the hard way so we're big on long term incentivization and giving somebody real career growth over time. And then would you say operating partner I'm assuming you don't necessarily mean a general manager is that right. It the the operating partner may be the general manager many of my stores I structure them as I personally will take equity in the deal you know twenty five thirty three percent however much. And then I have a couple partners that have equity in the deal and then on top of that I may identify a general manager that may get paid on the net profit every month and get a piece at the end of the year. And it depends on the market you know every store may not need that general manager in it if you have efficiencies in a market you may not need as much personnel at that level. But yeah I would say a general manager is not always an operating partner first of all right but a general manager generally can turn into an operating partner is they execute over time you don't say somebody is every year they're growing new cars. We got Tia Presidents Club in freehold and counterhockey in Kia if you're getting accolades like that and you're achieving you know great results over time we're going to give you an opportunity to buy equity which is going to help them earn over time.
我认为很多老派车商都很好地激励了总经理，使其以长期为目标。我认为许多车商都吃了苦头，所以我们非常注重长期激励，为员工提供真正的职业成长。你所说的“运营合伙人”，我想你并不一定指的是总经理是吗？在我的许多门店中，我会将股权分配为我个人占25％到33％不等的比例。然后我有几个合伙人也持有股权，然后在此基础上，我可能会确定一个总经理，他可以获得每月的净利润分成和年底的一定比例。这取决于市场需求，如果市场效率高，则可能不需要那么多此级人员。总的来说，我认为一个总经理并不总是一个运营合伙人，但是如果他们有长期执行的能力，他们通常可以成为运营合伙人。如果你能像在Freehold和Kia一样获得名声和成就，我们将给你买股票的机会，这将有助于你长期获得收益。
So this is I mean fascinating details let's let's shift gears a bit I want to go into the operations because I think a lot of people are very curious like the nitty gritty of running the business specifically what are the most in least profitable customers that you service. So I believe in you know serving all customers the same but when you say when you ask that question I immediately think of wholesale parts those customers they could be you know. Estimark it parts warehouses they can be body shops those customers are largely running on credit and the margins are extremely thin I actually really try to avoid that business you know your margins might be 10% 12% if if that so you're you're putting a lot of time a lot of resources and if one of those customers goes belly up it could cost you a lot of money.
这是令人着迷的细节，让我们稍微转变一下话题，我想谈谈运营，因为我认为很多人对经营业务的细节非常好奇，特别是你们服务的最赚钱和最赚钱的顾客是谁。我坚信要平等地服务所有客户，但当你问这个问题时，我立刻想到批发零部件客户，他们可能是Estimark的零部件仓库或者车身修理厂，这些客户几乎都在赊账经营，而且利润空间非常小。我其实很想避免这类业务。你的利润率可能只有10％到12％，如果这样的客户破产了，那么你将会付出很大的代价，因为你投入了大量时间和资源。
And it for me that the parts managers job is to keep the parts department clean and if all day they're focused on this low margin business where is there opportunity for them to take advantage of the higher margin business which is what. Which is counter retail you know selling a roof rack to a customer or you know just helping the used car department source parts you know that's hugely important as you know as a use car dealer. You know in addition your your service department is hugely profitable so your customers that are coming in for their 15 30 45 60 K services there hugely valuable what are the margins there I would say. Labor anywhere from 65 75% gross margin and part your anywhere from 40 to 45% and that's also where you're your your OEM warranty comes at the play which as you know is hugely profitable and the OEMs will or paying the dealer to fix the cars so what's the margin on the OEM warranty how does that get priced.
对我来说，配件经理的工作是保持零部件部门的清洁，如果他们整天都专注于低利润业务，那么他们在利用高利润业务这一机会上会有哪些机会呢？这就是反向零售，您知道将屋顶行李架卖给客户或者协助二手车部门寻找零件是非常重要的，您知道作为一个二手车经销商多么重要。此外，您的维修部门的利润非常可观，您的客户前来进行15、30、45、60K维修服务，其价值巨大，利润率是多少？我想，劳动力的毛利率在65-75％之间，零件的毛利率在40-45％之间，同时这也是您的原厂保修的作用，您知道这是非常有利可图的，OEM将支付经销商维修汽车，那么OEM保修的利润率是多少，它是如何定价的呢？
So the OEMs basically look at your customer your warranty like customer pay they call it so if you're selling a customer say a. You know an engine job right they'll look at pay the dealer is selling the customer this engine jump or X and they'll look at maybe a hundred or two or 300 consecutive repair orders and they'll identify your warranty rates off of that so they're basically you know they don't just say hey we're paying you X basically a lot of the states. Legislative that as a dealer you have the right to ask the factory for a certain amount of warranty dollars and you know the the strong dealers I believe ask for what they are entitled to. So that that's kind of how it works and it's a moving target every every year every couple of years you need to reassess and align.
所以原始设备制造商主要关注您的客户和保修问题，即所谓的客户支付。如果您向客户销售发动机维修工作，他们会查看经销商向客户销售的这种发动机维修工作或服务的价格，然后查看一百到两百甚至三百个连续维修订单，并根据此来确定您的保修率。他们基本上不会仅仅说：“我们支付你某个价格。”在许多州，立法规定作为经销商，您有权向工厂索取一定金额的保修费用，而强大的经销商会要求他们有权获得的费用。这就是它的工作原理，它是一个动态目标，每年或每几年您需要重新评估和调整。
How do you feel about the use car space right now you know we haven't touched this just yet but you know thinking through margins and opportunities in a dealership your your franchise you guys have a all franchise every single store what's your general take on use cars and you know what are you doing in store right now how are you directing your teams in terms of inventory management show another huge advantage of of having scale and having many dealerships is data right. If I have let's say 15 or 20 rooftops and I can see data more data points kind of like you know why did Google outperform ask G. Juryavu because they had more data and they had more efficiencies across their their platform and what I mean by that is every month every week even every day I look at the car business as a you know you know you can see.
你对二手车空间的使用有何感受？虽然我们还没有涉及这一点，但考虑经销商销售利润和机会时，您作为特许经营者，您的每家门店都是特许经营，那么您对二手车的总体看法是什么？目前您的门店在做什么？在库存管理方面，您如何指导您的团队？拥有规模和多个经销商的另一个巨大优势就是数据。如果我有15或20个商店，我可以看到更多的数据点，就像为什么Google超越了Ask G. Juryavu一样，因为他们拥有更多的数据和更高的平台效率。我的意思是每个月，每个星期，甚至每天都要以汽车业务来看待。
You need like day trading attention yeah we're like a stock market I was just having this conversation the other day with another CEO you likely know him but yeah we're just saying like what this is like we're like tracking a stock market yeah so I'll send out quarterly use car summary some of which you've seen to my teams which include you know general managers general sales managers use car managers even the B.D.C. And what I noticed that was interesting I believe in November December of this let of a 22 was that a time where you would expect seasonal weakness we saw use car day supply go from 50 3.54 to 43 44 so they supply went down which means that there's less inventory available which means there's less inventory available in a seasonally softer time and I noticed that across all of my rooftops used car water was going like this which is your you know your your profit or your loss in your use car inventory pretty much the difference from it's yeah the difference from what it's worth to the lenders on book versus what you actually own it correct.
你需要像日内交易一样关注市场，我们就像是一个股票市场。我最近和另一个CEO谈起了这个话题，我们说，这就像我们正在追踪股票市场一样。所以我会给我的团队发送季度二手车总结报告，其中包括总经理、销售经理、二手车经理甚至是B.D.C。有趣的是，在去年11、12月份，我们看到了二手车日供应量从53.54降到了43.44，这是一个季节性较弱的时期，日供应量的降低意味着可用库存减少了。我注意到，在我所有的营业点中，二手车利润或损失的水平都在波动，这基本上是指它的价值与在账面上的贷款人所拥有的价值之间的差异。
So what I was able to identify at that time was that hey day supply is trending lower waters trending lower even though the macro was bleak and and a little scary I understood that structurally they used car market had changed there's less lease returns coming back you know there's very little fleet lease business so you're not you're not seeing those volume cars that you use to see and what else now it costs you used to be able to buy a key of forte for you know 18,000 new and the same key of 4th day is 25,000 right so you know the the 2019 or 2020 key of 4th day or Honda Civic or on Dilanstra is going to be worth structurally more than what it was worth you know pre supply issue where you're leasing cars and they're coming back off and you have rental company selling cars into the market so what we try to do is take advantage so so when I notice that my email went out and said hey step up trade every car you can don't don't not trade a car if you're 2000 away if it's a good car meaning you know it's a car that's going to sell less than 60 days let's say right because in two three months you've got said you're very March you've got tax time coming you've got the strong season coming and I just was able to forecast that it was likely that the market would go higher and and it has and you know those quarterly you know stacks that I look at generally have been hugely valuable as a group it's enabled us to have similar strategy
在那个时候，我能够确定的是，当时的供应量呈下降趋势，尽管宏观经济形势黯淡而有些可怕，我了解到，结构上二手车市场发生了变化，回收的租赁车辆越来越少，几乎没有车队租赁业务，因此你看不到那些以前看到的大量车辆。
现在，你曾经能够以18000美元的价格购买一辆Kia Forte，而现在，同样的Kia Forte价格已经涨到了25000美元。因此，2019或2020年的Kia Forte、本田思域或奥迪拉斯特拉等车型，在供应问题之前，结构上的价值将比之前更高，当你租赁车辆并把他们卖到市场上回收时。
因此，我们试图利用这一情况。当我注意到这一情况时，我发送了电子邮件，告诉大家要升级换车，不要因为离目标只差2000美元的缘故而不更换车辆，如果这是辆好车（指能够在不到60天内售出的车辆），就更换它。因为在两到三个月后，例如在三月份税收时，强劲的季节来临，我只是预测市场可能会上涨，事实也证明了我的预测是正确的，我的季度报告观察通常很有价值，能使我们拥有相似的策略。
and the other thing that I'm big on is almost like like retail arbitrage to give you an example the Metro New Jersey markets pick up trucks might not move quickly lehigh valley they move like that right so if I'm able to trade a pickup truck in Metro New Jersey and ship it to you know rural Pennsylvania where you used to maybe send that truck to the to the sale to make the money now you're able to you know make the money wholesale through the deal of traded it and then you're able to retail it and make the right amount of money on the retail end you're able to make the warranty reinsurance and service it so that's why you're seeing so many less cars at the auction is because you've got a lot of dealer groups that are understanding that different cars work better in different markets and they're shifting vehicles to different to different Metro's yeah
我非常推崇的另一件事情就像零售套利一样，举个例子，在新泽西城市区市场上，皮卡车可能不会很快销售，但在利哈伊谷，它们销售得很快。因此，如果我能够在新泽西城市区交易一辆皮卡车，并将其运输到你所在的宾州农村，你就能够通过进行批发交易来赚取利润，而不是像以前那样将该卡车运到销售现场赚取利润，之后再通过零售赚取合适的利润。你能够提供保修、再保险和服务，所以你会看到拍卖场中的汽车数量很少，因为很多经销商都明白不同的汽车在不同的市场上运作效果不同，会将车辆转移到不同的城市。
I think hearing everything you're saying I it's it's pretty fascinating how much the business has changed and how like you said it's your treating it almost like a stock market when it comes to inventory management which is obviously you know it's the largest line out of the balance sheet I you know it makes me feel like I don't see how franchise dealers that are single point locations can truly compete in the long run here even in the shore on frankly but it just seems like there's you know you need you need so much sophistication and you know the economies of scale at this point it's just I think it's you know really really uphill battle for the single point dealerships what do you think totally agree I think the smaller mom and pop dealers you know it's going to be there even if they are truly exceptional operators not having the economies of scale like we spoke about and in addition you have more stores you have more cost efficiency you know if you can run an office out of one location and you don't have to hire three clerks a title clerk a accounts receivable and HR you're saving 20 30,000 a month right there and you know the smaller stores it's either adapt and out perform with an edge but even if they adapt and out perform with an edge it's still going to be difficult by not having those efficiencies like a larger dealer has so yeah I mean I think you've already seen a ton of consolidation you know those are also what we target are the smaller dealers and markets that we like so for instance if we like a certain metro New Jersey market we'll identify hey this is not publicly owned or this is not large group owned let's let's you know create a relationship with the seller and you know not just approach them hey sell your dealership it's hey you know let's become friends let's understand each other and when you're ready to maybe part ways with your store give me the first shot right and that's worked wonders for us over the years and I believe it will continue to be that way
我觉得听到你讲的一切，我觉得这是非常有趣的，业务已经改变了很多，就像你说的，在库存管理上，你几乎像对待股票市场一样对待它，这显然是财务报表中最大的一行，我觉得单点位置的特许经销商在长期竞争中真的没有办法竞争，即使在海岸方面，但似乎你需要这么多的复杂性和规模经济，我认为这是一个非常艰难的战斗。你认为呢？完全同意。我认为小型的家庭式经销商，即使他们真的是杰出的运营商，仍然会存在，但由于缺乏我们所谈到的规模经济，而且如果你有更多的门店，你的成本效益会更高，如果你可以在一个地点管理一个办公室，你不必雇佣三个办事员，一个工商登记员，一个应收账款和一个人力资源，你就可以节省20000到30000美元，而在较小的店铺中，您需要的是适应并具有优势，但即使他们适应并具有优势，没有像较大经销商那样的效益仍然将是困难的，所以，我认为你已经看到了大量的合并，在我们所喜欢的市场上，这也是我们的目标，例如，如果我们喜欢新泽西地区的某个城市，我们会确定这不是公共拥有的或不是大型集团拥有的，我们会与卖家建立关系，不仅仅是向他们靠近，让他们销售你的经销店，而是“让我们成为朋友，让我们相互了解，当你准备与你的店铺分道扬镳时，请给我第一次机会”，这在这些年中为我们带来了奇迹，我相信它将继续这样做。
You mentioned brands you like but I'm curious like what brands don't you like right now from a dealer's perspective or from a consumer's perspective frankly like what brands do you think I just you know on the decline and for what reason.
你提到了你喜欢的品牌，但我很好奇，从经销商或消费者的角度来看，你目前不喜欢哪些品牌，实际上你认为哪些品牌正在走下坡路，出于什么原因。
I think right now the domestics are in a tough position and I'm a Chevy dealer we love Chevy you know but the domestics have sort of found themselves in a little bit of a spot where it's very expensive for them to produce vehicles right you know whether that be union labor issues or whether that be the way they source their supply children now the Koreans are excellent with that right and and so I think it's important to understand you know who is positioned which way and I believe hugely in Chevy they take care of the dealer I believe Ford is a domestic where you can look at it and say okay they've got domestic headwinds and in production but they're also sort of alienating their dealers right how so how so Jim Farley with his you know anti dealer profit campaigns and his EV you know hey you're going to sell direct to consumer or we're not going to give you it I think the good progressive OEMs have learned that dealers are their best customer and dealers are their best source of growth.
我认为现在国内车厂处于困境中，我是一名雪佛兰经销商，我们热爱雪佛兰，但是国内车厂发现自己的生产成本很高，无论是工会劳工问题还是供应链的问题，而韩国厂家在这方面做得很好。因此，了解哪些厂家处于哪个位置非常重要。我非常相信雪佛兰，他们非常关注经销商。而福特是本土厂家，可以看到他们面临生产上的困难，但他们也在疏远经销商，吉姆·法利的反经销商利润运动以及他的电动车销售政策让我们看到了这一点：直接面对消费者出售，否则我们将不会给予加盟。好的、进步的汽车制造商已经意识到，经销商是他们最好的客户和增长来源。
And you know if you want to just go and alley and eight dealers you're going to find yourself in a hard position especially with franchise law right franchise law basically means that dealers cannot go direct to consumer dealer OEMs have to go through dealerships and there are associations like NJ car and PAA and every state has its own lobby association that battles on behalf of dealers to ensure that no OEM is going to try to ever cut the mail and at any you know any instance where that happens the local lobby is step up and they do what needs to be done so personally I maybe would have looked at a Ford deal two three years ago I won't even look I won't even do due diligence on a Ford deal now you know some may say hey you may miss an opportunity but if I can't trust that the upper management is going to take care of the dealer how can I invest our hard earned dollars into into that brand right so yeah it makes total sense yeah.
如果你想直接找到厂商做生意，而不是通过代理商，那么你会发现自己会陷入困境，尤其是在特许经销法的限制下。特许经销法基本上意味着经销商不能直接向消费者销售，OEM必须通过经销商销售，而每个州也有自己的协会，如NJ car和PAA，他们会代表经销商进行斗争，确保任何OEM都不会削弱他们的利益。如果发生任何此类情况，当地的协会会站出来，做出必要的行动。因此，个人而言，两三年前我可能会考虑福特的交易，但现在我甚至不会去着手研究福特的交易。有人可能会说，你可能错过一个机会，但如果我无法信任上层管理层会照顾好经销商，我怎么能将我们辛苦赚来的钱投资到这个品牌中呢？所以这完全是有道理的。
So like Nissan on the other hand, I believe you know carigan recently showed that Nissan dealer demand is increasing and Nissan multiples have remained steady so the multiple is kind of going higher the other demand has gone you know up which means that I believe now is a great time to identify and buy Nissan buy it that doesn't mean just buy it in you know rural West Virginia right it maybe means look at the good markets where they used to sell two three hundred Nissan's and they're now selling 70 or 80 and maybe they're some of those deals make sense especially if you have a efficiency in that market.
另一方面，就像日产汽车一样，我相信您知道卡里根最近表明，日产汽车的经销商需求正在增加，而其倍数保持稳定，这意味着倍数有所提高，而需求也在上升。这意味着现在是一个很好的时机来确认并购买日产汽车，这并不意味着只在西弗吉尼亚的农村购买，而是应该关注那些过去销售两三百辆日产汽车的市场，现在可能只卖出70或80辆，也许这些交易是有意义的，特别是如果您在该市场具有效率。
Domestics I think Subaru I think is challenging to understand Subaru is a phenomenal product it's got a you know a cult-like following for sure but I do think Subaru multiples got a bit ahead of themselves and a bit elevated Subaru got all the way up into the seven eight range and and me personally if he, if you're offering me a Subaru store or a Hyundai or Kia store I'm going to take the Hyundai or Kia store wow most of the time at all the time it depends on the market but ultimately if you think of just raw math right if you're paying seven eight on a store that's making three million you know that's twenty-one to twenty-four million right of catch out like verse a four five multiple making three million is twelve to fifteen million so you have to spend another eight to ten million to maybe generate similar returns to to to me.
在国内，我认为Subaru是比较难以理解的品牌，尽管它拥有一批像狂热粉丝一般的追随者，但我认为Subaru的倍增有点过头了。和我个人而言，如果你让我选一个Subaru的店面和一个现代或起亚的店面，我会选现代或起亚的店面。当然这主要取决于市场情况。如果你做一些简单的数学运算，比如一个三百万收入的店面下，七八的倍增就意味着需要二十一到二十四百万的现金流。相比之下，使用四五倍增只需十二到十五百万即可创造类似的回报。所以说，你需要再额外出八到十百万的现金才能创造类似的回报给我看。
I think it eats into your I or R it eats into your you know compound that adjusts you know you're your compounded return over time and I think Subaru will be just fine. I just can't see myself paying a seven multiple for something that I believe might be closer to in the in the five five and a half range yeah. It just seems like I mean Subaru Toyota, you know, there are the top of the market they've been there and it seems like you know you mentioned Kia Hyundai Nissan there's just more upside with those brands.
我认为它会削减你的投资回报或复合收益率，这会影响你随时间的投资回报。我认为Subaru会不错，但我无法为我认为可能更接近于五到五个半的范围的东西支付七倍的价格。这似乎就像Subaru和丰田，他们是市场的顶端，他们一直在那里。你提到了起亚、现代和日产，这些品牌似乎有更多的上涨空间。
If you and when we were, you know, largely acquiring Kia and Hyundai deals Kia and Hyundai was maybe a two multiple, you know, maybe a one and a two multiple so anytime you can acquire some, it's unbelievable seeing how far they've come yeah and look what have they done they've executed right they built the right cars at the right time they tell you right is unbelievable that the week it came out it was flawlessly executed and they're hotter now than ever.
当我们大量收购起亚和现代汽车的交易时，其股票可能是两倍或者一倍。任何时候若能够收购到它们的股票就很难以置信，看看它们现在发展得如何，他们完美地执行了他们的计划，制造了正确的汽车在合适的时刻，这是令人难以置信的。当它（汽车）发行的那周，真的是执行得无可挑剔，并且他们比以往更受欢迎。
And something that's very interesting is I was in the Palm Beach area a couple of months ago, and I heard multiple wealthy people saying Kia tell you right is unbelievable, my wife drives one my cousin drives one and I never heard that before, you'd always kind of hear all but it's a key right and and what he had did with their with their logo change was they basically changed the way that the customer perception and it was it was flawless execution, and I remember you even had a post, you know, people are searching KN right people thought it looked a little off, but it was more so key is more so Kia basically making the statement that hey this is not the old Kia this is the new Kia of the future, and kind of watch what we do, and I think a lot of brands can learn a lot from Kia and Hyundai, and not just how they're building cars and how they're designing cars but what they do, and you know how they take care of dealers, and when I say that my Kia, and I'm on Kia's dealer council, and my local even if I wasn't, my local Kia VPs regional national they will take my call at midnight if I have a call and they'll address a concern on the spot whereas at guarantee you try to get a Honda executive on the phone, you will not hear from them for some time.
很有趣的是，几个月前我在棕榈滩地区，听到多名富人说Kia Telluride是令人难以置信的好车，我妻子和表亲都在开，这是我从未听过的，因为以前总是会说“这不就是一辆Kia吗？”而他们做的却是，通过改变客户的认知，彻底改变了这种看法，执行得非常出色，我还记得你发的帖子，人们在搜索时认为KN看起来有点奇怪，但实际上，Kia更多地是在告诉消费者，“嘿，这不是以前的Kia了，这是未来的Kia，看着我们的表现”，我认为很多品牌可以从Kia和Hyundai身上学到很多东西，不仅是他们制造和设计汽车的方式，还包括他们的服务和他们如何照顾经销商。因为我是Kia的经销商顾问，即使我不是，当我有问题时，我的当地Kia副总裁和区域和国家领导人，将在午夜时刻接听我的电话，并立即解决我的问题，但如果你试图联系本田高管，你可能要等很长时间才能得到回复。
You know really really interesting I would just pick up a minivan or were in the midst of getting a sienna, and you know into the family family scrolling with more space and whatnot and I get a lot of DMs, and so a lot of people were asking me. I'm really curious why you chose sienna over carnival to this version of the minivan and I actually found that fascinating because like you go back 10 years that would never even be a comparison it's like that's a joke but now yeah, and I'll be honest with you my response was frankly that. That was where I got a deal first and it made sense, and listen you can go wrong with Toyota obviously but truthfully it was it was a good question you know and I was like wow I didn't expect to get that from so many people in my but here's a great example I have a client who has a key a carnival sx which is the high the higher level ones and going back to turn only the dealers with above 85 90 95% turn we're getting those carnivals so they're they're in that they were in very short supply and they're still in very short supply.
你知道真的很有趣，我刚刚买了一辆米尼巴 或者说正忙于购置一辆 塞纳，你知道这是一种更适合家庭使用、有更多空间等等的车型，我收到了很多私信，很多人都问我。我真的很好奇，你为什么选择塞纳而不是嘉年华呢？这个版本的米尼巴，我觉得非常有趣，因为如果你回到10年前，那根本不会成为一个比较。真是个笑话，但现在，我要诚实地告诉你，我的回答很简单，那就是我先买到了优惠，合理的价格，难道丰田做的不好吗？但说实话，这是一个很好的问题，我很惊讶这么多人问我。这是一个很好的例子，我有一个客户，他有一辆嘉年华SX版，那是一款高端的车型，回头看当时只有85、90、95%，销售量很高的那些车行才能拿到嘉年华，所以它们现在依然供不应求。
You know people ask why more micro chips to build them you know harder to build harder to source you know might be harder to source the windshield glass or the navigation components or the leather components right that's used in that vehicle but a client came to me looking for tell you ride sx and they had a key a carnival sx lease. About two years in they were already about 25,000 over miles which will generally cost you you know 15 20 cents a mile right and this customer has about 12,000 equity in that lease on the carnival sx that they're over mileage by 20 25,000 miles on now they've got 12,000 and equity that they could use towards their color to ride.
你知道吗，人们问为什么要使用更多的微芯片来建造它们，你知道，这样建造更难，更难源代码，你知道在那种车辆中使用的挡风玻璃、导航组件或皮革组件可能更难获得。但是有一位客户来找我说要乘坐tell you ride sx，他们有一辆Carnival sx租赁车。大约两年后，他们的行驶里程已经超过25,000英里了，这通常会花费你15-20美分的里程费。这位客户在租赁Carnival sx上已经有了大约12,000美元的资产净值，但是他们的里程已经超过了20-25,000英里。现在他们有12,000美元的资产净值可以用来购买他们的Tell You Ride。
So what does that tell you it tells me that the demand is extremely strong that key of themselves did have realized how strong these would hold up and what I've noticed over the last one to three years is many fans are extremely strong and I do not see the demand fading for that. Many fans are happy people were telling me oh you're going many fan gang I said listen up a dealer to us many fans are like the Rolex like you know we get those things they fly off the shelf so I value it very highly.
这句话告诉我们什么呢？它告诉我需求非常强劲，这些关键点本身也意识到了它们的强大保持力。在过去的一到三年中，我注意到很多粉丝非常强大，我并不认为这种需求会消失。很多粉丝都很高兴地告诉我：“噢，你要去做粉丝的事情吗？”我说：“请听我说，许多粉丝就像劳力士一样，你知道我们得到这些东西后，它们就会脱销。所以我非常重视。”
But absolutely yeah especially the way they're making them now with you know the seats go all the way back and they've got like TVs. It's wild yeah so speaking of demand you know we have lots of dealers that listen to this we have lots of vendors investors and you know many things but we also have lots of consumers and just car shoppers so really curious to hear from you what do you think or what can consumers do to maximize the deal they get from a from a dealership.
特别是现在的汽车都是座椅可以全部向后倾斜，还有电视屏幕，特别酷。关于市场需求，我们知道听众里面有很多经销商、供应商、投资者，但也有很多消费者和购车者。因此，我很想听听你的看法，消费者应该如何最大程度地从经销商那里获得优惠。
So I think that's a good question basically in layman's terms people want a good fucking deal how do they get it. So I think consumers are smarter and more well researched than ever you know you got you on Twitter right which I love obviously but consumers they have so much information at their fingertips and they know that you know they're not going to get it key to tell you right sx for invoice right it's not going to happen because the market is efficient right it's like you can't go and buy birch or half the way stock it.
我想这其实是一个好问题，基本上普通人都想要一个好的交易，他们该如何获得它。所以我认为现在的消费者比以往更聪明、更有研究能力，你看，他们在Twitter上，拥有大量的信息，他们知道他们不会得到那个可以让你告诉他他的价值的钥匙。即使是联机发票，市场也是高效的，就像你不能去买给你现货的毫米树一样。
You know 150 dollars a share if it's 350 share and and you know consumers they understand and they research so what I suggest is a dealers need trades right so if you have a trade that your borderline on always try to bring it to the table right because that's a huge edge as a consumer and it dealer will always be willing to step up in a trade. Additionally a bank will always generally give you a better APR if there's a trade in the mix especially an open credit line trade.
你知道，如果一支股票价值150美元，你购买了350股，消费者会了解并进行研究。因此，我建议经销商需要进行交易，如果你的边缘交易总是试图将其带到谈判桌上，因为这对消费者来说是一个巨大的优势，而且经销商总是愿意进行交易。此外，如果有交易混合在其中，尤其是有一个开放信用额度的交易，银行通常会给你更好的年利率。
Additionally I would say you know just be real with the dealer hey you know I'm looking for you know a key of forte and I want to be here and I believe good dealers that operate with integrity are going to do their best within their process. To get you the deal that you need and especially the dealers with more scale you know if if I sell say seven 800 new key is a month I may be willing to take that shorter deal that you know the little small rule key a dealer only sells for the isn't willing to take because they just don't have the inventory right so I would shop your larger platform dealers I would always try to bring a trade to the table.
此外我还想说，与经销商相处时要真实坦诚，告诉他们你需要的是一把强劲的钥匙，你想和他们合作，并且我相信有正直经商的好经销商，他们会在他们的流程内竭尽所能地为你提供所需的交易。尤其是那些规模更大的经销商，如果我每个月能卖出七八百把新的钥匙，我可能会愿意接受更短的交易，或者是那些只能销售少量规格的小经销商不愿意接受的交易，因为他们没有足够的库存。所以我建议去那些规模较大的经销商那里看看，同时也要尝试将您的交易带到谈判桌上。
I would definitely always do your research right trust book verify and you know ask questions ask the Internet sales department questions on you know what's your day supply if my day supply on a vehicle is five you're not you're not going to get a great deal on it because there's too much demand right but if I have a you know if I have 60 key affordable 60 key affordies I'm going to give you a great deal on that car and you may get a great deal on a low day supply car if it's you know if we're short of a number or if we have a high objective in a certain month that doesn't mean we're going to do that deal last day of the month but mid month we may be willing to take a little bit shorter lighter of the deal if it's a month where our objectives might be higher.
我会一直建议你要做好你的调研，相信书本上的内容，进行核实，并且向销售部门询问一些问题，比如你们车辆的库存情况。如果我的某款车辆的库存只有5辆，那么你可能不会得到太好的报价，因为需求太高了。但是，如果我们的60款车型库存较多，我将会给你一个很好的报价，当然，如果我们某个月的目标比较高，我们也可能在月中较轻松地交易一些库存不足的车型，这并不意味着我们一定会在月末做出类似的决定。
Yeah some some great alpha so flipping to the macro before we wrap up what do you think prices look like by next year and you know specifically new verse used again this things have been so volatile here over the last year in 2022 we saw use car prices sort of just come down linearly every single month and then boom we had a pop in January and it's sort of been going up since then new car prices of course have been coming down not equally distributed across the board.
嗯，伟大的Alpha，我们在结束之前先看一眼宏观的情况，你认为明年的价格会怎样呢，尤其是新车和二手车，因为过去一年里这些价格波动很大。在2022年，二手车价格基本上就是每个月都线性下降，然后在一月份突然升高，自那以后就一直在上涨。当然，新车价格也一直在下降，但并非完全相等的分布。
You know the Asian brands are still selling for above MSRP in most places and there's shortages the domestic brands are now offering more incentives on certain models and makes but on an aggregate what do you see for prices on the you side on the new side within a year so this is a very tricky question it's tricky because we still have increasing. Cost of capital right so anytime a OEM has to pay a higher big you know to hold their own capital the supply that they're putting into the market is going to probably be priced a little bit higher to offset their their carrying cost number one number two inventory levels definitely remain constrained use car inventory levels are slowly increasing but certain segments are increasing much more than others for instance your your smaller sedans you might be seeing more supply of those because they're easier to produce than your third row you know your your pathfinders or your tell your rides or your traverses right because those cars those cars just take more to produce.
您知道亚洲品牌在大多数地方仍然以高于建议零售价的价格销售，并且存在短缺，而国内品牌现在在某些型号和品牌上提供更多激励措施，但全局上，您对新车价格未来一年的预期如何？这是一个非常棘手的问题，因为我们仍然面临不断增长的资本成本。因此，每当原始设备制造商必须支付更高的利率来持有自己的资本时，他们向市场提供的供应可能会稍微定价更高，以抵消其持有成本。第一，库存水平肯定仍然受到限制，二手车库存水平正在缓慢增加，但某些细分市场的增长要比其他市场更多。例如，您可能会看到更多的小型轿车供应，因为它们比您的第三排车型更容易生产，如Pathfinder、Telluride或Traverse，因为这些车型需要更多的成本来生产。
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So I believe that inflation and higher rates are going to stick around for a bit. I believe the cost to produce vehicles is going to remain quite high. I think that vehicle prices on the new car side will stay elevated for the next six to 12 months but I think after six to 12 months they will come down and level out a bit.
我认为通货膨胀和利率将会持续一段时间。我相信汽车生产成本将保持相当高的水平。我认为，新车的价格将在未来的六至十二个月内保持高位，但是在六至十二个月之后，它们将下降并趋于稳定。
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The other thing is that OEMs are very strategically not placing too many incentives on vehicles. They're instead trying to use that money as subvented rate money so you know if you can still get zero percent or 1.9% as a consumer it's worth more to you than getting $1,500 and rebate that right. So the OEMs recognize this they recognize what segments are hot so I don't foresee like carnivals and tell your rides and palisades tanking in price anytime soon. I don't foresee use car prices really going that much lower over the next 12 months 12 24 36 yeah you might get a little bit of a decline I think once you know the economy maybe takes a little bit of a step back but again we you know that the star was what two three years ago it was supposed to be 18 19 million and I think it was maybe 11 or 12 and just for the audience by saw you just mean how many new cars sold in a year which should have been closer to 19 million but really sold 11 so we just had this crazy under production of vehicles correct.
另一方面，原始设备制造商(OEMs)采取战略手段不会给车辆太多的激励。相反，他们试图将这些资金用作订购利率资金。因此，作为消费者，如果您仍然可以获得零利率或1.9％的优惠，这对您来说比获得1500美元的折扣更有价值。因此，OEMs认识到了这一点，并了解哪些领域很受欢迎，因此我不认为嘉年华、塔吉尔和帕拉赛德的价格会在短期内大幅下跌。我认为未来12个月，二三年内，二手车价格不会下降太多。也许在经济出现一些问题时，你会看到小幅下降，但去年曾预测过汽车销售量将达到18-19百万台，但实际上只售出了11百万台。这意味着我们存在着导致汽车生产紧缩的这种荒谬情况。
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Also you have you know D urbanization you have people moving from Manhattan into New Jersey or into Connecticut you have people moving from San Fran and L.A. to Arizona or to Seattle right or whatever it is and what happens they stop taking transit and they start driving their car more so it's a it's like a double effect of demand side where the demand side is driving price right supply even if even if all we have can ramp up supply you still have that demand component and people need cars and the average age of the vehicle in the road is I don't know 13 years so I say the other thing that people aren't really talking about is the same twofold number one warranty costs and warranty prices to consumers and you know costs to service your vehicle at 30k what what happens with inflation labor costs go up and your cost to service your car is going to go higher you know higher so I think that will also force people into buying new cars so they have a 60 K service and you know they need to put up 25 hundred to change their injectors or their throttle body or whatever it is they might just buy a car so I think that will create more demand and you might not see you may see strong new car sales prices for 24 months it would have surprised me at all and also EVs you know what about EV battery costs there had a customer the other day it was 30 thousand to replace their battery you know you don't hear Elon Musk talking about that but down the line that that's a factor you like gave the pot a shout out nice so you know Elon if you're listening we got to get you on the pod talk a little bit about the economy and the EVs and what's happening yeah and and what's your plan you know for for battery costs and and if a customer needs to replace a battery in two three years you know is are you going to you are you going to give them a tax credit into a new car or you go or they just going to have to stomach that massive you know cost to replace that battery.
此外你可能不知道的是城市化现象，人们从曼哈顿搬到新泽西或康涅狄格州；从旧金山或洛杉矶搬到亚利桑那州或西雅图等地，这些人就不再使用公共交通，而是更多开车。这就是需求端的双重作用：需求端推动价格上涨，即使我们可以增加供给，你仍然有这个需求因素，人们需要汽车，道路上的车辆平均寿命大约为13年。我认为大家并没有真正谈论的另一个双重因素是保修费用和保修价格，对消费者的影响以及在保养汽车方面的成本。汽车在行驶30,000公里后需要保养等，通货膨胀和劳动力成本上升会导致保养汽车的成本上涨，这会迫使人们购买新车。我认为这会创造更多的需求，你可能会看到未来24个月新车销售价格上涨，这一点并不奇怪。另外，还有电动汽车，电池成本是一个问题，我有一个客户把电池换掉花了3万美元，但似乎埃隆-马斯克并没有谈论这个问题，但未来会成为一个因素。埃隆，如果你在听，我们一定要把你请到节目上来，谈一谈经济和电动汽车领域的事情，以及你的计划，比如关于电池成本和如果客户需要在两三年内更换电池，你会给他们新车的税收抵免等。
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This has been awesome to have just you know really learned a lot and I think people really love this episode if people want to learn more about raceway group yourself I'm working they go to one more so raceway auto group you know we have multiple key stores I've got raceway Chevy and PA I've got we've got stores in Berlin, Knoj, Jersey we've got stores in Allentown PA on you know you can learn more about me at any of our raceway Pio websites or or length in or I'm always open to engaging with customers.
这真的很棒，我学到了很多东西，我认为人们会非常喜欢这一集。如果人们想了解更多关于Raceway Group以及我在这里的工作，他们可以去我们的另外一个网站Raceway Auto Group。我们有多家门店，包括Raceway Chevy和PA，我们在Berlin、Knoj、Jersey和Allentown PA都有门店。您可以在我们Raceway Pio网站或其他网站了解更多关于我的信息，我也很乐意与客户互动。
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Welcome to another episode of The Dealer Playbook podcast. Today's guest is Jake Sweeney, the Vice President and General Manager of Jake Sweeney Automotive located in Cincinnati. Jake's family has been in the automotive business for decades and has a wealth of knowledge and experience in the industry. In this episode, Jake shares some of his insights into dealership operations, growth strategies, and customer service.
欢迎来到下一集的《销售商操作手册》播客节目。今天我们邀请到的嘉宾是杰克·斯温尼（Jake Sweeney），辛辛那提的杰克·斯温尼汽车公司的副总裁和总经理。杰克的家族在汽车业务上已经有几十年的经验和知识，他在这一行业中拥有丰富的见解。在这一集中，杰克分享了他对销售商运营、发展战略和客户服务的一些见解。
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Jake talks about the importance of investing in the right people when it comes to dealership operations. He explains that dealerships are no longer just selling cars, but they also need to provide an exceptional customer experience. This means hiring the right people who can deliver that experience to customers. Jake shares how he has been investing in his employees' training and growth, and how it has led to positive results.
杰克谈到在经销商运营中投资于合适的员工的重要性。他解释说经销商不再仅仅售卖汽车，他们还需要为顾客提供出色的服务体验。这意味着雇用能够向顾客提供这种体验的合适的员工。杰克分享了他如何投资于员工的培训和成长，并且这已经带来了积极的结果。
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Customer service is a critical factor in the success of a dealership, and Jake believes that the best way to provide great customer service is to focus on providing value. He talks about the various benefits and services that his dealership offers, such as Uber on lifts for customers and lifetime car washes and oil changes. Jake believes that customers are willing to pay for value, and the dealership's price is a byproduct of the value they offer.
客户服务是经销商成功的关键因素，Jake认为提供优质客户服务的最佳方式是关注提供价值。他谈到他的经销商提供的各种利益和服务，例如为客户提供Uber搭便车、终身洗车和更换机油。Jake相信客户愿意为价值付款，经销商的价格是他们提供的价值的副产品。
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Jake also shares his insights into dealership growth strategies. He explains the importance of investing in the right technology and marketing tools to attract new customers. He emphasizes the need to have a strong digital presence and to invest in impactful marketing campaigns that resonate with customers. Jake also discusses the role of community involvement in dealership growth, highlighting the importance of giving back to the community and building a positive reputation.
Jake还分享了关于经销商增长策略的见解。他解释了投资于适当的技术和营销工具来吸引新客户的重要性。他强调具有强大的数字存在和投资于与客户产生共鸣的有影响力的营销活动的必要性。Jake还讨论了社区参与在经销商增长中的作用，强调了回馈社区和建立良好声誉的重要性。
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Jake concludes the interview by emphasizing the importance of providing value to customers and employees. He invites listeners to reach out to him personally if they need a Nissan Chevy or any other vehicle. He also talks about his website, SellUsYourLease.com, where customers can sell their leases for cash. Jake is passionate about closing deals and working with customers, and he believes that providing value to them is the key to long-term success in the automotive industry.
杰克在采访中强调了向顾客和员工提供价值的重要性。他邀请听众在需要尼桑雪弗兰或任何其他汽车时，可以直接联系他。他还谈到了自己的网站SellUsYourLease.com，客户可以在上面出售他们的租赁，以获取现金。杰克热衷于达成交易并与客户合作，并认为向他们提供价值是在汽车行业长期成功的关键。