New Model Y From Berlin, Europe Sales, Ford Comments, Waymo Expands
发布时间 2023-05-05 08:45:59 来源
摘要
➤ Tesla reportedly begins production of new Model Y configuration at Giga Berlin
➤ April sales in Europe
➤ Tesla Semi to participate in trucking event
➤ Tesla announces Model S Plaid Track Package
➤ Ford comments on pricing, costs, and strategy on earnings call
➤ Waymo doubles coverage area in Phoenix
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Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent
Executive producer Jessie Chimni
Executive producer Michael Pastrone
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Editing assistance by Jasem Ashkanani
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Image(s) and/or footage used under license from Shutterstock.com
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
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Hey everybody, Rob Marwick here and today we are going to be talking about a new configuration for the Model Y out of Gigabril in. We've also got a couple other updates on Europe, some news on Tesla's Model S Plaid and more.
大家好，我是Rob Marwick，今天我们将讨论Gigabril工厂推出的Model Y的新配置。我们还会就欧洲的一些更新、特斯拉的Model S Plaid等方面进行讨论。
Nice light out performance from Tesla stock on the day to day finishing up 4.10% to $161.20 while the NASDAQ was down half a percent on the day.
特斯拉股票在当天表现良好，收盘价为161.20美元，上涨4.10%，而纳斯达克在当天下跌0.5%。
Getting right into the news then, we've got a report today from teslamag.de that Tesla is beginning production of a new configuration of the Model Y at Gigabril in. We know that Tesla in Europe does offer the rear wheel drive Model Y. However currently that version of the Model Y is produced in Shanghai and then imported into Europe. Now the report from teslamag is that Tesla has started production on a similar rear wheel drive smaller battery capacity Model Y at Gigabril in.
让我们马上来看最新消息，来自teslamag.de的一篇报告称，Tesla正在Gigabril开始生产一种新型Model Y配置。我们知道，欧洲的Tesla确实提供后轮驱动的Model Y。但是，目前这个版本的Model Y是在上海生产，然后进口到欧洲。现在，teslamag的报道称，Tesla已开始在Gigabril生产类似的后轮驱动、电池容量更小的Model Y版本。
With Berlin now hitting true volume production and hopefully continuing to ramp up from here, I think the timing makes sense to expand to a lower price Model Y. And unlike the rear wheel drive version from Shanghai, Tesla Meg is reporting that this version will be using front castings in addition to the rear castings similar to what we see on the 4680 Model Ys from Gigabril.
"随着柏林工厂现在开始真正的批量生产，并有望从这里继续加速，我认为现在扩展到价格更低的Model Y是有道理的时间。与上海的后驱版本不同，Tesla Meg正在报道说，这个版本将使用前部铸造件，除了类似于Gigabril的4680 Model Ys后部铸造件之外。"
意思是随着柏林工厂的生产逐步增加，特斯拉考虑扩大Model Y的线路，推出一个价格更低的版本。与此前上海的后驱版不同，这个新版还将加入前部铸造件，类似于Gigabril的4680 Model Y。
Instead of using 4680s though, the report is that these vehicles will in fact feature a battery from BYD. So over the last year or even two years there had been various reports that Tesla was going to be using BYD batteries. At one point we had a report that was no longer going to be the case because of safety concerns. Elon then came out and said that that report was not accurate and that the relationship between the two companies was strong. So if today's reporting is correct, it would make sense why Elon was refuting that at the time.
相比使用4680电池来说，有报道称这些车实际上将搭载比亚迪的电池。过去一到两年中，一直有各种报道称特斯拉将会使用比亚迪的电池。有一次我们收到了一份报告，因为安全问题，这不再是事实。但埃隆出来后说，那份报告不准确，并且两家公司之间的关系很好。所以如果今天的报道是正确的，那么埃隆当时反驳那个报告就有了明显的道理。
In terms of the specs of the vehicle, it sounds like it will have roughly a 55 kilowatt-hour pack and a 440km WLTP range, which is just a bit less, about 3.5% less than the current rear wheel drive configuration from Shanghai shows. So it'll be interesting to see how Tesla manages the introduction of this vehicle if production is really starting right now. I assume that would happen pretty soon, but it is slightly different spec than the Shanghai version, so Tesla will have to manage around that from an ordering and allocation perspective.
就车辆规格而言，听起来它将拥有大约55千瓦时的电池组和440公里的WLTP续航里程，比上海现有的后驱配置略低，约为3.5%左右。因此，看到特斯拉如何管理这款车的引入，如果现在真的开始生产，将是很有趣的。我认为这很快会发生，但它的规格与上海版本略有不同，因此特斯拉将不得不从订购和分配的角度加以管理。
And if this version is ramped up quickly, again that's going to open up supply from Giga Shanghai that will need to be absorbed in another market. Of course we recently talked about a similar configuration being added to the Canada Design Studio and it looks like those are going to come from Shanghai. So that news, that maneuver, likely being done in relation to the news that we're hearing in this report.
如果这个版本被快速推出，那么将会打开Giga上海供应的市场，需要在另一个市场中吸收。当然，我们最近谈到了一个类似的配置被添加到加拿大设计工作室，看起来这些将来自上海。因此，这个消息，那个策略可能是与这份报告中听到的消息有关。
And of course as we talked about before, that absorbed supply in Canada that otherwise would have been fulfilled from the US, and then those vehicles ultimately have to find buyers somewhere else too. So hopefully that makes it very clear how expanded production in Berlin can affect prices and United States as that opens up supply ultimately in the US. And it should be clear why eventually that will allow for cost savings, but those don't appear right away as production is ramping, but they should come over time and that will add to Tesla's structural cost advantage.
当然，正如我们之前所说的，加拿大的供应被吸收，本来应该从美国满足的，然后那些车辆最终必须在其他地方找到买家。因此，希望这样可以清楚地说明柏林扩大生产如何影响价格和美国，因为这最终为美国开放了供应。因此，应该清楚为什么最终这将允许节约成本，但这些节约不会立即出现，因为生产正在加速，但随着时间的推移，这些节约将增加特斯拉的结构成本优势。
The other update that we've got on Giga Berlin comes from an article from MOZ shared on Twitter by Brillenergy, and that is that according to the Brandenburg Ministry of the Environment, a new groundwater supply has been found near Giga Berlin, which could help ease some of the concerns that there have been around water usage for the factory. So good news on that front. Hopefully that'll make some permitting needs for Tesla in the future a little bit easier.
另一则关于德国吉卡柏林工厂的最新消息来自MOZ网站上的一篇文章，被Brillenergy分享在推特上。根据布兰登堡环境部的消息，吉卡柏林公司发现了一处新的地下水源，可以缓解关于工厂用水的担忧。这是一个好消息。希望这会使得特斯拉未来的申请程序更加容易。
Alright, sticking with Europe, now that we are a few days into May, most countries have reported registration information for the first month of the quarter, April, and Roland Purture on Twitter has done a really good job aggregating this data, in this chart we can see the registration data for the first month of each quarter in these countries, historically compared to the second quarter here in 2023. So this quarter off to what seems to be a pretty strong start with easily a record for a first month, and about a 50% increase from January the first month of Kiwant.
说到欧洲，现在五月初，大多数国家报告了本季度的第一个月--四月份的注册信息。Roland Purture在推特上很好地汇总了这些数据，我们可以在这张图表中看到这些国家每个季度的第一个月的注册数据，并与2023年第二季度的历史数据进行比较。从目前的情况来看，这个季度似乎是一个非常强劲的开始，首月注册人数轻松创下纪录，并比今年一月份的Kiwan的首月增长了约50%。
However, as Tesla grows Giga Berlin production as they continue to push for unwinding the delivery wave, this should be expected and in the middle of a change like that it doesn't really mean much in terms of how the entire quarter is going to come in as we saw in China in Q4. In fact, bringing in the context for full quarters, we actually saw this happen last quarter in Europe where the first month of the quarter, or those green bars at the bottom, started off really strong on a quarter over quarter basis, but the entire quarter as a whole, came in as a sequential decline.
然而，随着特斯拉不断扩大吉加·柏林工厂的生产，并继续推动着交付浪潮的取消，这件事是可以预见的。在这样的变化中，这并不意味着整个季度的情况会发生太大的变化，就像我们在中国 Q4 时看到的那样。实际上，如果从整个季度的情况来看，我们上个季度在欧洲也发生了这种情况，也就是季度初的第一个月（也就是底部的绿色条形图）在季度对比上表现非常强劲，但整个季度呈现了一个逐渐下降的趋势。
So point being, there's a lot of quarter left, the first month has not proven to be a very good gauge of how the total quarter comes in. I'll definitely take the increase, that's better than not saying that, but it doesn't mean a whole lot yet, and I think we're still waiting to see signs of more strength in Germany and the UK, which were really drags in the first quarter.
因此，观点是，还剩下很多季度，第一个月并不能很好地衡量整个季度的情况。我肯定会接受增长，这比不接受好，但目前它并不意味着很多，我认为我们仍在等待德国和英国更强的迹象，这在第一季度真的拖累了经济。
Alright, next we've got an update on the Tesla semi, according to reporting by automotive news, Pepsi yesterday confirmed that they would be entering Tesla semi's in an event called run unless it takes place over three weeks later this year in September. One of Pepsi's directors about the decision said quote, we're really excited to participate in the run and allow the industry to have access to the insights and the learnings that we are getting from experiencing these vehicles we're going to run them hard.
好的，下面我们有关于特斯拉半挂车的最新消息。根据汽车新闻的报道，百事可乐昨天证实他们将参加一个叫做“Run Unless”的活动，这个活动将在今年9月举行，持续三周，届时他们将使用特斯拉半挂车。百事可乐的一位负责人在谈到这个决定时说：“我们非常兴奋地参加这次活动，让整个行业能够获得从体验这些车辆中获得的见解和经验，我们会让它们尽可能地发挥。”
The event describes itself as showcasing electric trucks in everyday operation and says that both their previous events featured real-time monitoring of a number of factors including miles traveled, fuel consumed, pickups and deliveries elevation change and vehicle speed among others. So this should be a really good opportunity for third-party monitoring and verification of some of the claims that Tesla has made about the semi so far.
该活动自称展示电动卡车在日常运营中的表现，并表示他们之前的活动都包括实时监测许多因素，包括行驶里程、燃料消耗、提货和送货、高程变化以及车速等等。因此，这将是对特斯拉此前关于半挂车所作声明部分内容的第三方监测和验证的绝佳机会。
Sounds like they'll be posting some of this performance data on the website following the event, and Pepsi has said that they're going to operate the truck at a maximum payload and travel up to 500 miles round trip during this event. They might end up being the final nail in the coffin for some comments from Daimler, a few years back implying that the semi's announced specs would break the laws of physics.
听起来他们将在活动后在网站上发布一些表演数据，百事还表示他们将在这个活动期间以最大载重行驶500英里的往返路程。他们有可能成为几年前戴姆勒发表的一些评论的最后一根钉子，这些评论暗示卡车公布的规格将打破物理定律。
Next up, Tesla today announced that the track package for the Model S platform is coming soon according to their website. It looks like this will begin deliveries in June, which appears to be very similar to the ceramic brake kit that was previously available. Looks like this now includes a set of tires as well, and it unlocks additional track mode software options for the Model S platform. Right now in the US, Tesla is listing this as $15-$20,000. It sounds like there's still a little bit of homologation needed for Europe. Sounds like that'll be happening pretty soon. But this package is also what is needed to unlock the 200-mile per hour top speed for the plant.
特斯拉今天宣布，在其网站上，Model S平台的赛道包即将推出。看起来这将从6月开始发货，与之前可用的陶瓷刹车套件非常相似。现在看起来这也包括一套轮胎，并为Model S平台解锁了附加的赛道模式软件选项。目前在美国，特斯拉将其列为15-20,000美元。欧洲仍需要一些同意措施。听起来这很快就会发生。但这个包裹也是解锁工厂200英里每小时最高速度所需的东西。
Alright, next I wanted to briefly touch on a few comments from other automakers earnings calls earlier this week. We have some comments here from Ford and Stellantis that I think are interesting. Of course, we talked about the financials from Ford earlier this week. They lost $700 million on their EV business.
好的，接下来我想简要谈一下本周早些时候其它汽车制造商财报电话会议上的几条评论。我们这里有来自福特和斯特兰蒂斯的一些评论，我认为它们很有趣。当然，我们已经在这周早些时候谈过了福特的财务状况。他们的电动汽车业务亏损了7亿美元。
In their earnings call though, they said that they are, quote, on track this year toward a contribution margin approaching break even in Model E. Therefore, our first generation products to be EBIT margin positive by the end of next year. End quote. So that implies that right now their contribution margin is negative, which means each additional electric vehicle that they build and sell is actually causing their losses to increase. But towards the end of the year, that would start to be close to not being the case.
在他们的盈利电话会议上，他们说他们正朝着实现Model E贡献利润接近盈亏平衡的目标努力，并预计在明年年底前，我们的第一代产品将实现EBIT利润。这意味着现在他们的贡献利润是负的，这意味着他们建造和销售每辆电动车都会导致他们的亏损增加。但到年底，这种情况将开始接近于不是这种情况。
Sounds like that would then flip pretty early next year, and then they viewed the contribution margin to start to become large enough to cover their fixed costs as well towards the end of next year. Compared to the negative 100% EBIT margin that they disclose this quarter, they expect that towards the end of the year, that will be around negative 20% instead.
听起来这意味着公司很快在明年初就会翻盘，他们预计业务贡献利润会在明年底变得足够大以覆盖其固定成本。与本季度披露的 -100% EBIT利润率相比，他们预计到年底时，这个利润率将会约为-20%左右。
Obviously, a lot of that will be driven by scale, and then they also noted that their expectation is that from the beginning of production for the Mustang Machee to the end of this year, they will reduce the bill of materials cost by $5,000 per vehicle. Of course, they've also cut prices for the Mustang Machee probably by roughly that amount last couple of months.
显然，大部分的成本节约将由规模效应驱动，他们还指出，他们的期望是从Mustang Machee的生产开始到今年年底，每辆车的材料成本将减少5000美元。当然，他们最近几个月还将Mustang Machee的价格降低了大约这个数额。
So they were asked about that, asked about competing with Tesla on price cuts and what their strategy was there, and CEO Jim Farley replied, quote, it depends. Well, first of all, our first three EVs are all very different in terms of pricing. I think the lightning's prices up $11,000 since we launched, and each transit is up a lot. And of course, we're increasing production to get that scale benefit. So the most important thing we've learned from three or four years ago is be careful where you compete, and we have selected where we compete extremely carefully. We want to go after segments where we have great reputation, but there's a lot of conquest customers. End quote.
他们被问及有关与特斯拉的价格战和他们的策略，CEO吉姆·法利回答：这取决于情况。首先，我们的前三款电动车在价格方面都非常不同。我认为闪电的价格自我们推出以来上涨了11,000美元，每款Transit也涨了很多。当然，我们正在增加生产以获得规模效益。所以我们从三四年前学到的最重要的事情是要谨慎选择竞争的领域，我们已经非常仔细地选择了竞争的领域。我们希望攻占那些我们拥有极好信誉但有很多吸引顾客的市场领域。
So basically saying, yes, Mustang Machee prices have fallen, but look at the 4-F-150 lightning, look at the e-transit where there's not as much competition. We have pricing power there. So the lesson seems to be pursue those things more aggressively, which is fine when there's not as much competition in those segments.
基本上说，是的，野马Machee的价格有所下降，但请看看4-F-150闪电和e-transit，在那里没有太多的竞争。我们在那里有定价权。所以，教训似乎是更积极地追求这些事情，在这些领域没有太多竞争时这样做是可以的。
And that's a good thing to do. There is some first mover advantage there, but that doesn't go very far in terms of creating a sustainable competitive advantage in their EV business. So it was kind of interesting to hear that response.
这是一个很好的做法。虽然在他们的电动汽车业务中有一定的先行优势，但这并不能创造出可持续的竞争优势。因此，听到这样的回应还是很有趣的。
And then I also noticed a similar sentiment being echoed in these to-lant asserning's call. When they were talking about many of these same things, they said quote, and so far we haven't made any moves as a result of the competitive moves. I think our products are very competitive in the segments they operate in.
接着我也注意到这种相似的情绪在这些托兰特阿斯宣称的呼声中也被反复强调。当他们谈论许多相同的事情时，他们说过：“到目前为止，我们还没有因为竞争对手的行动而采取任何行动。我认为我们的产品在其所在的市场细分领域中非常有竞争力。”
We're not directly competing with Tesla that much today and the segments we're in. So we're holding our price positions and focusing on managing our profitability across the portfolio. End quote.
现在我们并没有直接与特斯拉进行太多的竞争，因为我们所处的细分市场不同。因此，我们将保持我们的价格立场，并重点管理我们整个产品组合的盈利能力。引述结束。
So Ford basically saying we would have picked our segments more carefully to be in less direct competition with Tesla. Still ain't to saying we don't think we're in direct competition in terms of segments with Tesla. I guess those things kind of work for now a little bit, but that answer is only going to be a viable answer for.
福特汽车基本上是说我们将更谨慎地选择市场细分以减少与特斯拉的直接竞争。但这并不意味着我们认为与特斯拉在市场细分方面没有直接竞争。我想这些东西现在有点有效，但这种回答只是在短期内可行的。
So long. The last thing from the Ford call, I just kind of thought I was am using. Ford talked about one of the things they're doing to drive costs down is monitor vehicles from a digital connectivity standpoint to see what features customers are using and what they're not.
再见了。上次福特的通话中，我只是以为我在使用其中一项。福特提到他们正在采取的一项措施是从数字连通性的角度监控车辆，以了解客户使用和不使用的功能，以此来降低成本。
And then designing out things that are not being heavily utilized to help on costs, which hmm, that does sound pretty familiar speaking of passenger, lumbar support and many other items.
然后设计那些没有被大量使用的东西来帮助节省成本，这听起来相当熟悉，比如乘客、腰部支撑和许多其他项目。
All right, last item for today, then we do have an announcement from Waymo that they have increased their coverage in the Phoenix area, roughly doubling the service area to 180 square miles in that region.
好的，今天的最后一项任务完成了，接下来我们有一项来自 Waymo 的公告，他们已经扩大了在 Phoenix 地区的覆盖范围，将服务面积翻倍，达到约180平方英里。
They also announced that they are now serving 10,000 trips per week to public riders, not including employees. And they are targeting increasing that number by 10 times by next summer.
他们还宣布，他们现在每周为公众乘客提供1万次行程，不包括员工。他们的目标是在明年夏天将这个数字增加十倍。
So obviously these businesses, not without their faults, not without their problems, but crews, Waymo now starting to scale up a little bit more significantly, which as that happens, despite the differences and strategy, I think adds a little bit more pressure incrementally on Tesla for FSD beta.
显然，这些企业虽然有些缺陷和问题，但是团队在快速扩大，其中Waymo现在正在进行更为重要的规模扩张。随着这一趋势的出现，我认为，尽管其战略存在差异，但对于特斯拉的FSD测试版增加了一些压力。
So we'll continue to monitor progress there, but that will wrap it up for today. So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, and also find me on Twitter at Tesla Podcast.
因此我们将继续监测那里的进展，但是今天的节目到此结束了。像往常一样，感谢您的聆听。请确保您已经订阅并开启通知功能，您也可以在 Twitter 上找到我，用户名是 Tesla Podcast。
And we'll see you tomorrow for what is actually Friday for the May 5th episode on Tesla Day. Amitably there's so many speaking numbers today.
明天我们将为您呈现五月5日特斯拉日的节目，事实上属于星期五。今天有太多的数字会被提到，希望您能够愉快地收看。