Ford 2023 Q1 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-05-05 07:02:36 来源
中英文字稿 
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Gary and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded.
大家好，女士们先生们。我叫Gary，今天是您的会议主持人。此时此刻，我想欢迎您参加福特汽车公司2023年第一季度收益电话会议。为防止任何背景噪音，所有线路均已静音。在演讲者发言后，将有问题和答案环节。如果您想在此期间提问，请在电话键盘上按星号1。如果您想撤回问题，请按星号2。请注意，此活动正在录制。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Executive Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Gary. And welcome to the Ford Motor Company's first quarter 2023 earnings call. With me today, or Jim Farley, President and CEO, John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer, and also for Q&A is Marion Harris CEO for credit. Today's discussions include some non-gap references. These are reconciled to the most comparable US gap measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck along with the rest of our earnings materials and other important content at shareholder.for.com.
此时，我想将电话转交给投资者关系执行董事Lynn Antipas Tyson。谢谢，Gary。欢迎参加福特汽车公司2023年第一季度的盈利电话会议。今天与我一起的有Jim Farley总裁兼首席执行官、John Lawler首席财务官，以及负责信贷的Marion Harris CEO，供大家进行问答。今天的讨论包括一些非通用会计准则参考。这些准则在我们盈利资料的附录中与美国最相似的通用会计准则进行了调和。您可以在shareholder.for.com上找到我们的资料和其他重要内容。
Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our expectations. Actual results may differ from those stated. The most significant factors that could cause actual results to differ are included on page 25. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are you over year, company EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis, and product mix is volume weighted. Want to make sure you've got a few near-term IR engagements on your calendars. On May 21st and 22nd, we'll host our capital markets event in Dearborn, Michigan.
我们的讨论也包括了关于我们的期望的前瞻性声明。实际结果可能与所述不同。导致实际结果不同的最重要因素包括第25页中提到的内容。除非另有说明，所有比较均以调整后的基础上进行，公司的 EBIT、EPS 和自由现金流均以容量加权的方式进行产品混合。希望确认您的日历上已经预定了一些短期的IR约会。5月21日和22日，我们将在密歇根州迪尔伯恩举办我们的资本市场活动。
For the first time in over seven years, we're looking forward to welcoming representatives of the capital markets to our headquarters. The event will feature unprecedented experiences, including one of the largest displays of our global vehicle portfolio and recent memory, any immersive presentations on the strategic plans of our three new customer-centered business segments. We will also feature details of our software and services strategy, both retail and commercial, as well as ample time to network with our senior leaders. On May 25th, Jim Farley will keynote at Morgan Stanley's Sustainability Conference in New York City, and on May 31st, Jim will participate in a fireside chat with Tony Saganaki at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, also in New York City.
我们期待着欢迎资本市场的代表们到我们的总部参观，这是7年来的首次。此次活动将包括许多前所未有的体验，其中包括我们全球车型组合中最大的展示之一，并且还将有关于三个新客户中心业务部门战略计划的深度展示。此外，我们还将展示我们零售销售和商业服务策略的细节，并提供充裕的时间与我们的高层领导人进行交流。5月25日，吉姆·法利将在纽约市的摩根士丹利可持续性会议上发表主题演讲，5月31日，吉姆将在纽约市的伯恩斯坦战略决策会议上与托尼·萨加纳基进行交谈。
Now I'll turn the call over to Jim. Thank you, Lynn, and hello, everyone. And thanks for joining us today. I'd bottom line the first quarter like this. Our team delivered a solid quarter while making real progress on our Ford Plus growth plan. And I hope that becomes a trend at Ford, boringly predictable when it comes to execution and delivering financials, but extremely ambitious in dynamic and creating the Ford of the future. For the quarter, we saw growth across all of our key metrics. In addition, Ford Pro and Blue were profitable in every region where we operate.
我现在将通话转给Jim。谢谢，Lynn，大家好。感谢你们今天的加入。我想简单总结一下第一季度。我们的团队在执行我们的福特增长计划时，实现了稳定的一季度，并取得了实质性的进展。我希望这在福特成为一个趋势，我们在执行和交付财务方面无聊的可预测性，但在动态和创造未来的福特方面非常雄心勃勃。在这个季度，我们在所有关键指标上都看到了增长。此外，福特Pro和Blue在我们经营的所有区域都实现了盈利。
Our balance sheet is strong. We ended the quarter with close to $29 billion in cash, even as we invest in growth and return capital to our shareholders. With each quarter of the passes, I'm more confident and convinced and thankful we made the decision to create three separate customer-focused businesses. This is unleashed clarity, speed, and accountability across the company, not to mention a whole new level of discipline on capital allocation. So let me cover a few highlights. I'd like to start with Ford Pro.
我们的资产负债表非常强大。即使我们在投资增长和向股东返还资本，我们在本季度结束时也有近290亿美元的现金。随着每个季度的过去，我更加自信、坚定和感谢我们创建三个以客户为中心的独立业务的决定。这释放了整个公司的清晰度、速度和责任心，更别提在资本配置方面的全新纪律水平。所以让我来简要介绍一些亮点。我想从福特专业版开始。
I know many of you were surprised at the true size of the pro-business in March when we recast our financials. Pro starts with marking leadership in our vehicles across the world, tremendous scale, and customer knowledge. We're layering on top of that the future of our industry in the ecosystem of software and services and EV charging that we believe will be invaluable to our commercial customers. This will unlock tremendous loyalty and profitable growth. Our strong order books in North America and Europe, as well as all the demand signals we can see for pro, support our target to nearly double pro-Z bit this year.
我知道很多人对我们在三月份重新计算财务时公布的真实规模感到惊讶。Pro首先在全球的车辆领导地位、广泛的规模和客户知识方面占据优势。我们在此基础上加入了我们行业未来的软件、服务和电动汽车充电生态，我们相信这对我们的商业客户非常宝贵。这将释放出巨大的忠诚度和利润增长。我们在北美和欧洲的强大订单书，以及所有我们能看到的Pro的需求信号，支持我们今年将Pro-Z的目标几乎翻倍的计划。
In March, we launched the all-new Super Duty in Kentucky and Ohio. It has received tremendous reception and it's going to strengthen a franchise that is already the market leader. Importantly, Super Duty is a platform for software and services that help our customers maximize their uptime, accelerate their productivity, and lower total cost of ownership. I would also say the Super Duty launch is a good case study for the disciplined approach we're implementing across our industrial system.
在三月份，我们在肯塔基州和俄亥俄州推出了全新的超级职务车。它受到了巨大的欢迎，将进一步加强我们已经是市场领导者的特许经营权。重要的是，超级职务车是一个用于软件和服务的平台，帮助我们的客户最大限度地提高工作时间、加速生产力和降低总拥有成本。我也可以说，超级职务车的发布是我们正在实施的系统化纪律性方法的一个好案例研究。
Simply put, we slowed the launch down, significantly increased on road and implant quality testing. We dispatched a large and skilled launch team to our plant. We added test vehicles, we drove millions of miles to prove our durability and we deployed new technology and artificial intelligence to catch issues. Basically, we put all the pressure in the system to find and then prevent future quality issues rather than speeding up the line to match our launch curve. Short-term patience, we believe, that will result in long-term gain for our customers and yes, the company.
简单来说，我们减缓了推出速度，大大增加了道路和植入质量测试。我们派遣了一支庞大而高技能的上市团队前往我们的工厂。我们增加了测试车辆，驾驶了数百万英里来证明我们的耐久性，还采用了新的技术和人工智能来发现问题。基本上，我们将所有压力都放在了系统上，以找出并防止未来的质量问题，而不是加速拉线以匹配我们的上市曲线。短期的耐心，我们相信，将会为我们的客户和公司带来长期的利益。
In the quarter, Ford Pro extended its leadership in true commercial vehicle categories. Our share of the class one through seven truck and bands in the US increased by one full share point to 41 percent share. In Europe, we've already been the top commercial brand for eight years now running and our share grew to more than 15 percent. We also maintained our EV strength in North American Europe. In the US, E-Transit has already has already a 50 percent market share and in the quarter, we want a contract to deliver more than 9,000 E-Transit bands to the US Postal Service. Ford Pro's paid software subscriptions rose 64 percent in the quarter, including higher revenue per unit software sales like our telematics and charging software. With these and all the other initiatives, Ford Pro is developing into a resilient business certainly less cyclical than the broader automotive sector.
在这个季度，福特职业者在真正的商用车类别方面扩大了其领导地位。我们在美国一至七类卡车和货车市场份额增加了一个完整的份额点，达到41%。在欧洲，我们已经是顶级商用车品牌八年了，并且我们的市场份额增长到了15%以上。我们还在北美和欧洲保持了我们的电动车优势。在美国，E-Transit已经占据了50%的市场份额，在这个季度，我们赢得了向美国邮政局交付超过9,000辆E-Transit货车的合同。福特职业者的付费软件订阅在这个季度增长了64%，包括更高的单元软件销售收入，如我们的遥测和充电软件。通过这些和其他所有的措施，福特职业者正在发展成为一个具有弹性的业务，肯定比更广泛的汽车行业更少周期性。
In Ford Blue, the team is focused on capitalizing on our red hot product lineup. Our opportunity to smartly grow extends to valuable franchises with great pricing power like the F-150, the new Maverick, the new Bronco, and of course the Mustang. We'll grow our leadership position and pickups in off-road, in performance, and in SUVs with all new derivatives. For example, we just introduced the Bronco less than three years ago and already it's neck and neck and sales with the Jeep Wrangler and it has higher transaction prices. We've also recently expanded the Bronco lineup with exciting derivatives like the Bronco Everglades, the Bronco Raptor, and the Bronco Heritage. The ridd is not only continued to contribute to our growth but importantly, they can also drive higher transaction prices and higher returns. See these derivatives often have 80% per commonality with the base models, but their contribution margin percents can be 30% higher with a twofold increase in capital efficiency.
福特蓝色团队专注于充分利用我们火热的产品阵容进行资本化。我们的智能增长机会，可以扩展到拥有巨大定价能力的宝贵特许经营权，如F-150、新的Maverick、新的Bronco和当然还有Mustang。我们将通过全新的衍生品，在越野、性能和SUV领域增强我们的领导地位和皮卡。例如，我们刚刚在不到三年的时间里推出了Bronco，已经与Jeep Wrangler的销售量不分伯仲，并且拥有更高的成交价。我们也最近扩大了Bronco的产品线，推出了令人兴奋的衍生品，如Bronco Everglades、Bronco Raptor和Bronco Heritage。基础模型与这些衍生品通常有80%的共同点，但是它们的贡献利润率可以比基础模型高30%，资本效率增加两倍，这不仅可以持续为我们的增长贡献力量，而且还可以带来更高的成交价和回报率。
We also have one of the strongest products years coming for Ford Blue, so it's just beginning. We have the new Escape, including the new Hybrid. It's just arriving in dealerships now. Next week, we will reveal the all new Ranger and the highly anticipated Ranger Raptor. That will be followed by an all new Mustang and high performance Dark Horse Mustang this summer. While I can't get into the details yet, we have more exciting news to share about two of America's best-selling vehicles, the F-150 and the Explorer later this year. On top of all that, we have the Lincoln Corsair arriving in dealerships now, and of course, we just revealed the Lincoln Nautilist.
我们即将迎来福特蓝的最强产品年度，这只是个开始。我们有新款逃逸车型，包括全新的混合动力版，它们现在正在经销商展示中心上市。下周，我们将发布全新的游侠以及备受期待的游侠猛禽版。接下来，这个夏天我们还会推出全新的野马以及超高性能的黑马野马。虽然我还不能透露具体细节，但是我们还有更多关于美国两款最畅销车型F-150和探险家的令人兴奋的消息将在今年晚些时候发布。除此之外，我们还有林肯飞行家现在正在经销商展示中心上市，当然，我们也刚刚发布了全新的林肯Nautilist车型。
Now Ford Model E operates with a startup intensity to build a profitable EV business with the differentiated portfolio and the differentiated customer experience. US investors now have true visibility into how Ford Model E's profitability strengthens over time, supported by volume-driven operating leverage, improvements in design and efficiency, and of course, lower battery costs. We're on track this year towards a contribution margin approaching break even in Model E. And for our first generation products to be EBIT margin positive by the end of next year.
现在，福特 Model E 一直在打造一个盈利的电动汽车业务，并通过不同的产品组合和有差异化的客户体验来实现创业初期的强劲发展。美国的投资者现在可以真正地看到福特 Model E 的盈利能力随时间的增长而增强，这得益于规模驱动的运营杠杆效应、设计和效率的改进以及成本更低的电池。我们今年的计划是让 Model E 的贡献利润接近盈亏平衡点，并在明年年底前让我们的第一代产品实现 EBIT 的利润率为正。
Full sales were down in the quarter, which de-leveraged our cost structure. Part of the decline was planned, as we have brought Mustang Machee production down for several weeks, so we could almost double the capacity, and we are now hitting a 35-hour run rate in the plan. Bolleims were also impacted by the lower output of F-150 Lightning. We did the right thing, and I congratulated my team many times by immediately stopping production and working with our battery supplier, finding and then fixing the root cause of a fire that happened on the Ford property. We're now shipping Lightning's, again taking new orders, and increasing production to an annual run rate of 150,000 units, about double what we do now. We are also revealing, we revealed, an all-electric explorer in Europe, which is now very well received.
本季度销售收入下降，因此我们的成本结构没有增加杠杆比率。这部分下降是计划之内的，因为我们将Mustang Mach-E的生产降低了几周，以便将产能几乎翻倍，并且我们现在的生产率每周达到35小时。F-150 Lightning的产量下降也影响了Bollems。我们做了正确的事情，我多次向我的团队祝贺，立即停止生产并与我们的电池供应商合作，找到并解决了一次在福特物业上发生的火灾的根本原因。我们现在重新运送Lightning，接受新订单，并将生产提高到每年15万辆，约是我们目前的两倍。我们还在欧洲展示了一款全电动探险者，受到了极好的反响。
We made progress of Model E in the quarter, advancing our industrial system to scale EVs. The site preparation is already underway for our LFP battery plant in Michigan. Construction continues at the Blue Oval SK Battery Park in Kentucky and of course Blue Oval City in Tennessee. We now plan to transform our Oakville assembly complex into a Canadian hub of electric vehicle and battery pack manufacturing. We also continue to make progress towards locking in all the raw materials that we need to support our capacity targets in 26 and beyond.
我们在这个季度内取得了Model E的进展，在推动工业系统扩大电动汽车方面有所进步。密歇根州的LFP电池工厂的场地准备工作已经在进行中。在肯塔基州的Blue Oval SK电池园区和田纳西州的Blue Oval City，建设仍在继续。我们现在计划将我们的奥克维尔装配复合体转变为加拿大电动车和电池组制造的枢纽。此外，我们还在朝着在2026年及以后实现全部原材料需求的目标取得进展。
Model E is our center of excellence for technology, including software. A good example of that is Blue Coos, which continues to be hit with our customers. Consumer Reports rated it the top-advanced hands-free driver assist system on the market in the US, and that was just version 1.0. Our latest release, which we're OTAing to customers, is version 1.2. It automatically changes lanes with the tap of the turn signal and it delivers a much more natural driving experience hands-free. We also launched Blue Coos in the UK on Mustang Machee and became the first OEM to gain approval for hands-free, highway driving, speed anywhere in Europe. With more than, and now Blue Coos has more than 70 million miles driven to date and we continued to upgrade Blue Coos for customers with each over their update.
Model E是我们技术卓越中心，包括软件。一个很好的例子是Blue Coos，在我们的客户中一直很受欢迎。消费者报告将其评为美国市场上最先进的无手动驾驶辅助系统，并且那只是1.0版。我们的最新发布版本是1.2，我们正在通过OTA向客户发布。它可以通过打转向信号来自动换道，使驾驶更加自然。我们还在UK的Mustang Machee上推出了Blue Coos，并成为欧洲首个获得无手动驾驶高速行驶认可的汽车制造商。迄今为止，Blue Coos已行驶超过7000万英里，我们将继续为客户升级Blue Coos每一个版本。
Before we turn over, John, I want to share our thoughts on how the EV market is evolving in our eyes. It's easy to look at the landscape of the EV market as a monolith, but we plan to be surgical about where we play and how we win with the right products, the right cost structure, and the right price points. We do not subscribe to a win vehicle share at any cost approach. We look at share of vehicles, of course, and share revenue. We also look at share of profits and share of the customer lifetime value. And we believe this is the only way to ensure we drive appropriate returns or return on capital over time.
约翰，在我们翻页之前，我想分享一下我们对电动汽车市场演变的看法。对于电动汽车市场的格局，我们不能简单地把它看作一个整体，我们的计划是要有针对性地选择市场，制定正确的产品、成本和定价策略，以实现成功。我们不认同不惜一切代价争取车辆市场份额的观点。我们不仅关注车辆市场份额，还关注收入市场份额、利润市场份额和客户生命周期价值市场份额。我们认为这是确保在未来驱动适当回报或资本回报的唯一途径。
By 2025, we now expect there to be 45 EV models to be offered in the US in the small and medium utility segment. It will be a very saturated two-row EV market. Against this backdrop to ensure profitable growth, we know we have to have a fresh, compelling offering with the right cost structure, something we continue to improve with the Mustang Machi. We also found the customers are very loyal to full EV powertrains once they enter, but they are not brand loyal for their first purchase. We capitalize on that by getting to the market early with the Mustang Machi and our whole lineup, and it continues to reward us with over 60% of the customers new to Ford.
到2025年，我们预计将有45款电动汽车型号在美国的小型和中型车市场上推出。这将是一个非常饱和的双排座电动汽车市场。在这种背景下，为了确保盈利增长，我们知道我们必须提供具有正确成本结构的全新、有吸引力的产品，这正是我们在野马Machi上不断改进的方面。我们还发现，一旦客户进入全电动动力系统，他们非常忠实，但他们在第一次购买时并不忠于品牌。我们通过在野马Machi和整个产品线上尽早进入市场来利用这一点，这仍然为我们带来60%以上新客户对福特的认可和回报。
We're seeing that the second EV purchase is much more loyal to the brand in these developed EV markets. So we're glad that we have all these customers in our digital and physical ecosystem. We are aggressively lowering our product costs for our current and next generation products. You'll find out a lot more in capital markets today, but in fact, from Mustang Machi from launch to the end of this year, we'll have reduced the bill of materials for Mustang Machi by $5,000 per vehicle. Now in contrast to two road cross-overs that we believe will be a very saturated market, we believe modeling can be highly differentiated in markets where we know the customer well, like the three-row utility space. And as I said, we'll share more about our capital markets event later this month on our product strategy.
我们发现在发达的电动汽车市场，第二次购买电动汽车的客户更加忠诚于品牌。因此，我们很高兴我们拥有这么多数字和物理生态系统中的客户。我们正在积极降低我们现有和下一代产品的成本。您会在今天的资本市场上了解到更多信息，但实际上，从野马Machi发布到年底，我们将每辆车的物料账单降低了5,000美元。相比之下，我们认为，两个越野车市场将会非常饱和，我们相信在我们深入了解客户的市场，如三排座运动型多功能车的模型将会高度差异化。正如我所说，我们将在本月晚些时候的资本市场活动上分享更多我们的产品战略。
I had a chance along with John and most of our leadership team to go to China in the last few weeks and look at the EV market in a Genba Go-N-C activity up close. It's interesting to see how customers are no longer just attracted to traditional luxury brands with EVs or even hardware design anymore. Outstanding hardware styling, performance, quality, or just a given in the EV digital marketplace today. The best new brands are offering integrated digital, retail, lifestyle, and experience that are software defined. This is firmly in our sights for our second generation EVs. This software as a differentiator plus a radically different cost structure and the ability to attract attach value-added software and services gives us confidence we can compete and win in unit revenue, profit, and vehicle share while delivering appropriate returns. And Ford Pro is already there.
我和约翰以及我们大部分领导团队在最近几周有机会去了中国，近距离观察了电动汽车市场。有趣的是，如今的客户不再仅仅被传统豪华品牌的电动汽车或甚至硬件设计所吸引。出色的硬件造型、性能、品质已经成为了EV数字市场中的基本要素。最好的新品牌正在提供软件定义的综合数字化、零售、生活方式和体验。这是我们第二代EV的重点之一。这种以软件为差异化的策略加上不同寻常的成本结构、吸引增值软件和服务的能力，使我们有信心在单位收入、利润和车辆份额方面竞争并取得成功，同时获得相应的回报。Ford Pro已经走在了前面。
We're wrap up by saying we are pleased, but we are not satisfied. As I said, solid execution and some really thrilling progress advancing our Ford Plus plan. I look forward to seeing many of you in person in three weeks for a capital markets event where we will go much deeper into our strategy and our progress. Thanks, Jim.
我们很高兴，但并不满足。正如我所说的，我们的Ford Plus计划在实行中表现出色，取得了一些令人兴奋的进展。我期待在三周内能够亲自见到你们，参加资本市场活动，了解我们的战略和进展情况。谢谢，Jim。
First quarter, we, uh, whole sales were up 9% year over year as we delivered 3.4 billion in adjusted event margin was 8.1% up 140 basis points. Ford blue and Ford Pro profit improved reflecting favorable mix and higher net pricing and as expected, those benefits were partially offset with a loss in model E as we invest in our clean sheet next generation EVs and scale our leading portfolio of first-generation electric vehicles. For the quarter, we delivered 700 million of adjusted free cash flow improving consistent free cash flow from our industrial footprint combined with discipline capital allocation provides us with significant flexibility to fund our growth while also consistently returning capital to our shareholders. Our balance sheet remains strong. We ended the quarter with close to 29 billion of cash and over 46 billion of liquidity. In addition, despite the recent market volatility, we successfully completed the renewal of our 17 billion sustainability linked corporate credit facilities.
第一季度，我们的销售额同比增长了9％，我们交付了34亿美元的调整后的活动利润率为8.1％，提高了140个基点。福特蓝色和福特Pro的利润改善，反映出有利的组合和更高的净定价。正如预期的那样，这些好处部分抵消了模型E的损失，因为我们正在投资于我们的全新一代电动车，并扩展我们领先的第一代电动车组合。在本季度，我们提供了7亿美元的调整后自由现金流，这进一步提升了我们工业足迹的一贯自由现金流水平，同时遵循资本配置纪律，为我们提供了重要的灵活性，以支持我们的增长，并持续回报给股东。我们的资产负债表仍然强劲。本季度末，我们拥有接近290亿美元的现金和超过460亿美元的流动性。此外，尽管最近市场波动，我们仍然成功完成了价值170亿美元的可持续发展债券的更新。
So turning to our customer focused business segments with whole sales up 6% Ford blue delivered 2.6 billion in even 10.4% margin that was 400 basis points higher than a year ago supported by favorable mix and higher volume. Our fresh and exciting product lineup continues to drive strong demand. We have a sales from model E declined in the quarter reflecting plan downtime that allowed us to almost double our production capacity for Mustang Machi. Now the profitability of any EV startup, including Ford model E is highly levered to volume. Importantly, holding volume constant. Our first quarter EBIT margin would have been roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter at around negative 40%.
所以，我们转向以客户为中心的业务板块，其中总销售额增长了6％，福特蓝色品牌的销售额达到了26亿美元，利润率为10.4％，比一年前高400个基点，得益于有利的组合和更高的销售量。我们的全新且令人兴奋的产品线继续推动强劲的需求。本季度，我们从E型车模型的销售下降了，反映了计划的停工，这使我们能够将玛奇马的产能几乎提高一倍。现在，任何电动汽车创业企业（包括福特的E型车模型）的盈利能力高度依赖于销售量。重要的是，保持销售量不变。我们的第一季度EBIT利润率与第四季度相比将保持大致平稳，约为负40％左右。
We expect Ford model E EBIT margin to improve to around negative 20% in the second half of this year, reflecting stronger per unit contribution margin and significantly higher volumes. In fact, we expect model E contribution margin to approach break even this year and we continue to target positive EBIT margin for our first generation vehicles by the end of 2024. Ford Pro delivered an 18% increase in whole sales and EBIT improved 900 million to 1.4 billion for the quarter delivering a margin of 10.3%. The improvement in profitability was supported by higher net pricing, increased volume and favorable mix. Importantly, this was achieved during a quarter when whole sales for super duty were down both year over year and sequentially as we ramped up production of our all new version of this highly popular truck.
我们预计福特E车型EBIT利润率将在今年下半年提高到约负20％，反映出更强的单位贡献利润和显着增加的销量。实际上，我们预计该车型的贡献利润将在今年接近盈亏平衡点，我们继续以在2024年底前实现第一代车型EBIT利润率为正为目标。福特Pro在本季度同比整体销售额增长了18％，EBIT利润提高了9亿美元至14亿美元，实现了10.3％的利润率。利润增长得到了更高的净定价、增加的销量和有利的产品组合的支持。重要的是，这是在整体销售额同比和环比下降的季度实现的，因为我们加紧生产这款备受欢迎的新版超级重型卡车。
Ford Credit delivered EBIT of 300 million down 600 million from a year ago, reflecting lower financing margin, higher credit losses and lower lease income, all of which has been reflected in our full year outlook. Credit loss performance remains strong and is still below the historical average, but beginning to normalize auction values remain robust, but down from their peak in the first half of 2022. Ford Credit liquidity remains strong at 26 billion, up 5 billion from year end. In addition, despite the volatile market conditions, the company has already completed 12 billion of public issuance or roughly 50% of its 2023 funding plan.
福特信贷的营业利润为3亿美元，比一年前下降了6亿美元，反映出融资利润下降、信用损失增加和租赁收入减少，所有这些已经反映在我们的全年展望中。信用损失表现仍然强劲，仍低于历史平均水平，但开始趋于正常化。拍卖价值仍然坚挺，但已经低于2022年上半年的峰值。福特信贷的流动性仍然强劲，达到了260亿美元，比年末增加了50亿美元。此外，在市场波动的情况下，公司已经完成了120亿美元的公开发行，大约完成了其2023年筹资计划的50%。
Turning to our outlook, we continue to expect full year 2023 total company adjusted EBIT of 9 billion to 11 billion, adjusted free cash flow of about 6 billion and capital expenditures between 8 to 9 billion. This guidance includes headwinds that reflect global economic uncertainty, higher industry-wide customer incentives, as vehicle supply and demand rebounds, lower past service pension income, exchange, and investments in growth such as customer service and connected services. And tailwinds driven by improvement in the supply chain are our higher industry volume, with SARS of about 15 million and 13 million in the US and Europe respectively. Launch of our all new super duty and lower cost of goods sold, including materials and commodities.
关于我们的展望，我们仍然预计2023年全年公司调整后的EBIT达到90亿至110亿美元，调整后自由现金流约为60亿美元，资本支出在80亿至90亿美元之间。这个指引考虑了全球经济不确定性和行业内客户激励提高等不利因素，因为随着汽车供需反弹，车辆供应出现瓶颈，过去的退休金收入下降，汇率等方面的影响，以及对客户服务和互联服务等增长的投资。而受供应链改善、行业规模扩大以及新超级重任务车的推出等因素的驱动，我们也会迎来有力的支持。在此情况下，我们预计SARS会达到1500万和1300万辆，在美国和欧洲分别有所增长。此外，我们预计成本会下降，包括原材料和商品的成本。
Turning to the segments, Ford Blue to deliver full year EBIT of about 7 billion, cost improvements and higher industry volumes will likely be offset partially by pricing headwinds. As inventory stocks continue to normalize and industry incentives rise through the year along with adverse exchange. Ford Model E to report an EBIT loss of around 3 billion, largely reflecting discipline investment in new products and capacity. We also anticipate Ford pros EBIT to nearly double to around 6 billion compared to our 2022 result. And this is driven by improved pricing and volume, including the benefits from the launch of our all new super duty. And EBIT for Ford credit is anticipated to be around 1.3 billion.
转向细分市场，Ford Blue将实现大约70亿的全年EBIT，成本改善和行业销量增加可能会被定价方面的困境部分抵消。随着库存继续正常化和行业激励的增加以及不利的汇率影响，这种趋势将会持续到今年。 Ford Model E预计将报告大约30亿的EBIT亏损，主要反映了对新产品和产能的审慎投资。我们还预计，与我们的2022年成果相比，Ford Pro的EBIT将近翻一倍，达到60亿左右。这是由于价格和销量的提高，其中包括我们全新超级重型车型的推出带来的好处。Ford Credit的EBIT预计将达到约13亿。
Additionally, I hope that all of you are blocking time for our next capital markets event on May 21st and 22nd here in Dearborn. A couple of days as we update you on Ford Plus strategy, take a deep dive into financial targets and KPIs for each of our customer-centered business segments and talk about our capabilities and expectations for software and services. By the time we're done, I believe you will even be better equipped to value the expected contributions of each of the segments to forge overall growth and return.
此外，我希望大家都能保留时间，在5月21日和22日参加我们在迪博恩举办的下一场资本市场活动。在这几天里，我们将向您介绍“福特+”战略的最新进展，深入探讨每个以客户为中心的业务领域的财务目标和关键绩效指标，并谈论我们对软件和服务的能力和期望。到活动结束时，我相信您将更好地了解各个业务领域预期贡献的价值，以推动整体增长和回报。
So that wraps up our prepared remarks. We'll use the balance of the time to address what's on your minds. Thank you, operator. Please open the line for questions. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you were using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two.
这样我们就结束了我们准备好的讲话。我们将利用剩余的时间来回答你们心中的问题。谢谢，接线员。请开放问题线路。现在我们将开始问答环节。如果您想提问，请在电话键盘上按星号然后一键。如果您使用的是扬声器电话，请在按键前拿起听筒。如果您想撤回您的问题，请按星号然后二键。
Our first question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Thanks everybody. So Jim, you've compared the current environment for EVs to the year 1913. Same and no one should really be surprised that Tesla is cutting price so much. And then I think you asked the question maybe rhetorically, who's going to blink on growth? So if I put your own question to you, Jim, will Ford blink on growth?
我们的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯。请讲。感谢大家。吉姆，你把当前电动汽车的环境比作1913年。所以没有人应该对特斯拉大幅降价感到惊讶。然后我想你可能是反问了一下，谁会在增长方面退缩？所以如果我把你自己的问题问你，吉姆，福特会在增长方面退缩吗？
Thanks, Adam. It depends. You know, well, first of all, our first three EVs are all very different in terms of pricing. I think the lightning's price is up $11,000 since we launched and he transits up a lot. So and of course, we're increasing production to get that scale benefit. So the most important thing we've learned three, four years ago is be careful where you compete. And we have selected where we compete extremely carefully. We want to go after segments where we have a great reputation, but there's a lot of conquest customers. And we want to innovate beyond just the powertrain, like pro power on board and as well software.
谢谢，Adam。这要看情况而定。首先，我们的前三款电动车的定价都非常不同。我认为，自从我们发布以来，闪电的价格已经涨了11000美元，而Transit的价格也涨了很多。当然，我们正在增加生产规模以获得规模效益。我们三，四年前学到的最重要的一点是要谨慎选择竞争的领域。我们已经非常谨慎地选择了我们要竞争的领域。我们想去攻占我们声誉良好，但却有很多征服客户的市场。我们还想在动力系统之外进行创新，比如Pro Power Onboard和软件方面。
We now know the three shipable software stacks, safety and security productivity for pro and of course partial autonomy. And all those are really great hedges against the inevitable over capacity in certain segments. We could see the over capacity in the two row electric utility segment like years ago, Adam, literally like before we had finished the Machi development. We knew this was coming. That's why we got a team together. And the cost of the bill material by $5,000. We aren't waiting for a minor change. We're not doing things like we normally do. And we continue to get the data off the vehicle to make the software better and better so the customers vehicles get better every day.
现在我们知道有三个可交付的软件堆栈，分别为安全性和安全生产力以及部分自治。所有这些都是对某些领域的不可避免的过剩的有效遏制。我们几年前就已经看到了电力工具领域的过剩，亚当，准确地说是在我们完成“梅奇”（Machi）开发之前不久就已经看到了。我们知道这是即将到来的。这就是为什么我们组建了一个团队。这样可以减少成本约5000美元。我们不会等待微小变化。我们不会像通常那样做事情。我们将继续从车辆中获取数据，以使软件变得更加优化，使客户的车辆每天都变得更好。
I would say the message from me as a CEO is that we are not going to price just to gain market share. We will always balance a healthy profit road map in the first generation of products. And we are going to be able to do a pretty challenging because we didn't know what we didn't know four years ago when we designed them. But now we're two years in designing the second cycle. And in capitol market this day, we will take you through why we believe that 8% margin is totally realistic. Despite all the pricing pressure that we will absolutely get because everyone wants to grow. And we are going to be able to do some of the pure EV players who are pricing just for growth. We will always balance that because we want a profitable EV business. And we're pulling every level we can in the first gen products. The second gen is where we can really make a.
身为CEO，我的意思是我们不会为了获取市场份额而降价。我们将始终在第一代产品中平衡健康的利润路线。这是非常具有挑战性的，因为在四年前设计这些产品时，我们并不知道我们所不知道的事情。但是现在我们已经设计了第二个周期的产品，已经花了两年的时间。在今天的资本市场中，我们将向您展示为什么我们相信8％的利润率是完全现实的。尽管我们绝对会面临所有的定价压力，因为每个人都想增长。但我们将始终平衡这一点，因为我们想要一个有利可图的电动汽车业务。在第一代产品中，我们正在竭尽所能。而第二代产品才是我们真正可以做到的。
I appreciate that Jim. And just as a quick follow up. I know that you are going to be able to do a lot of things with the market share. I know that you are going to be able to do a lot of things with the market share. And I think you are saying this. Now the fact that we are going to have to have a different regulation. And we are going to achieve that. I also want to bring you something that is, the NKG-99PU, which is the result of soon the 5.75 Mass Effect, But, you know, that is not success. In fact, I would say the more we study this, our trip to China was a real piphany for our leadership team.
我感谢你，吉姆。接下来我很快就会跟进。我知道你会用市场份额做很多事情。我觉得你也这么说过。但现在问题是我们需要不同的规定。但我相信我们可以做到。我还想给你带来一个消息，就是 NKG-99PU。这是不久前5.75 Mass Effect的结果。但你知道，这并不是成功。事实上，我们对此进行的研究越多，我们的中国之行对我们的领导团队来说就是一个重大启示。
I would say the more, the thing that I look for as a CEO is not necessarily just the vine growth. It's actually how fast we use the data off the vehicle to make the customer's software experience better. That to me, the quickness of that loop is the fitness for differentiating brand and profit in the future for this new digital product category. We happen to call electric vehicles. To me, yes, volume's important, but that quickness of that loop, which were already on our 10th million OTA, we've now gained 65% more miles traveled on Blue Cruz in three months. We were only 42 million miles three months ago. We're now at 70 million. And the reason why that's growing so fast is because we continue to do OTAs to Blue Cruz to make it better and better. On Ford Pro, those subscriptions are growing fast. So to me of all the metrics I look for as a proof point for our success in this new digital product category we call EVs, I think that's the one Adam, I look for the best. And we will always balance profit with scaling. Thanks, Jim.
我认为作为CEO，我所追求的并不仅仅是葡萄酒的增长，更重要的是我们能够如何更快地利用车辆数据来提升客户的软件体验。对我来说，快速实现这个循环是这个新的数字产品类别中区分品牌和利润的适应性。我们碰巧称之为电动汽车。对我来说，数量重要，但这个循环的快速性就像我们现在已经通过10亿次OTA实现了，在三个月内我们已经在Blue Cruz上行驶了65%的里程，而三个月前我们仅行驶了4200万英里，现在已经到了7000万英里。这个增长如此之快的原因是因为我们不断地通过OTA更新Blue Cruz，使其变得越来越好。在Ford Pro上，这些订阅正在快速增长。对我来说，作为我们在这个被我们称之为电动汽车的新数字产品类别中成功的证明，所有我寻找的指标中，这个就是我最期待的。我们将始终平衡利润和规模。感谢，吉姆。
The next question is from Rod Lacey with Wolf Research. Please go ahead. Hi everybody, I'd actually like to follow up on Adam's question. I'm just looking at the $900 million increase in structural costs in the quarter. And I know that the investments that you're making are aimed at driving growth, but in the past when the industry's experienced higher structural costs, it put a lot of pressure on everybody to hit volume targets, which ultimately wasn't good for pricing. And I know you said, Jim, that you're planning to target segments where you've got strong price can power and you're confident in conquesting customers, but can you just talk a little bit about whether you agree with that assertion that there's gonna be pressure even on Ford, just given the magnitude of the structural cost increase that you're taking on. And what kind of flexibility do you have to make the targets if volume or pricing assumptions come in a bit short?
下一个问题来自沃尔夫研究公司的罗德·莱西，请问。大家好，我想跟随亚当的问题继续探讨。我只是看到本季度的结构成本增加了9亿美元。我知道你们的投资旨在推动增长，但过去行业经历高结构成本时，这会对所有人产生很大的压力，最终并不有利于定价。我知道你说，吉姆，你们正计划针对你们有强烈定价能力和征服客户的细分市场，但你能否简要谈谈你是否同意这个论断，即由于你们接受的结构成本增加的幅度，即使对于福特也会有压力。如果销量或定价假设稍微短缺，你们有什么样的灵活性来实现目标？
Yeah, let me, sorry, you've all went up on Adam's question. Let me start off on the cost there. Yeah, you're right. We did see our structural costs go up in the quarter on a year-over-year basis as we continued to invest, as Jim said, in our EVs, in our digital architecture and our software. I think for us, a key part of that is bringing those structural costs down in blue over time and then driving efficiencies on our overall cost structure in contribution costs, some material costs, warranty and freight, et cetera. So that's where we need to see the turn on our cost structure in those areas as well. And then cost structure coming out of blue as we continue to invest in EV and Pro.
是的，让我谈一下关于成本的问题。抱歉，你们都在回答Adam的问题上发表了观点。我们在继续投资我们的电动汽车、数字架构和软件方面时，的确看到了本季度结构成本同比上升。我认为对我们来说，一个关键的部分是在蓝色领域逐步降低结构成本，然后在贡献成本、一些材料成本、保修和运费等方面推动我们整体成本结构的效率提高。这也是我们需要在这些领域看到成本结构的转变。此外，随着我们不断投资于电动汽车和产品，我们的成本结构也将会不断完善。
Now, of course, we have to do that at an efficient level so that it doesn't put that much pressure on the business. But Jim can talk about this more, but as we're investing in the growth of EVs, we're not doing it where we're proliferating. We're looking to be very focused on the segments we're going into, be very disciplined on the complexity in the number of top hats and models that we have, have the right footprint, the industrial plants need to have the right efficiency levels. And we'll talk more about that at Capital Market State, but we're very, very thoughtful of the fact that as that investment goes in, it needs to be very efficient.
现在，我们当然需要以高效率的水平来做这件事，以便不给业务带来太大的压力。但是Jim可以在这方面讲得更多，随着我们在电动汽车增长方面的投资，我们不是在广泛扩散。我们正在非常专注于进入的细分市场上，非常守纪律地控制我们所拥有的顶盖和模型的复杂程度和数量，拥有正确的足迹，工业厂房需要具备正确的效率水平。我们将在资本市场状态中详细讨论这一点，但我们非常明智地意识到，随着投资的增加，它需要非常高效。
Okay, and just maybe secondly, just switching gears to your variable costs like material freight commodities were up, a billion, three and a quarter, are you still expecting a billion of savings and variable costs and a billion, a billion and a half in quantities? And that's the case. You also have the super volume ramping later this year. I just would be curious about whether you can give us a little bit more color on the first half that's going to have assumptions since your full year guide implies some pretty meaningful decline in the year. Of course, the level we're seeing right now.
好的，也许其次，我们转换一下话题，谈谈你们的可变成本，如材料、运费和商品等方面的情况。这一项在上亿三千两百五十万美元，那么你们是否仍然期望可变成本有十亿美元的节约，并且在数量方面达到十亿到十五亿的节约？如果是这样的话，你们今年晚些时候还会出现大量增长。我很想知道你们能否对上半年的预期进行一些更详细的说明，因为你们全年指导意义上的下降意味着目前的水平相当令人担忧。
Yeah, so when you look at it from a cost standpoint, let's just unpack what happened last year. When you look at the cost increases in 2022, only about 15% of that happened in the first quarter. So on a year-over-year basis coming out of last year, this was a tough read. If you look at it sequentially, when you look at our cost on a sequential basis, our costs were down in the quarter. Then they were down significantly in blue. They were up a little bit knee and they were about flat and pro. So yeah, we have got to gain traction on the cost reductions for sure as we go through the second half of the year. And you'll start to see that come through in the second half. Overall, when you look at it from a cost standpoint, we expect our total cost to come down and the cost to get sold to come down about two billion versus the two five. And that's primarily reflecting the fact that commodities aren't coming down as quickly as we thought. So that's where we see costs unfolding through the second half of the year.
嗯，从成本角度来看，我们来看看去年发生了什么。如果你从2022年成本增加的情况来看，只有大约15%是发生在第一季度。因此，与去年同期相比，这是一个困难的情况。如果你按顺序来看，我们的成本在这一季度是下降的。然后在蓝色的部分，成本大幅下降。在副总的部分略微上升，而在产品上基本持平。因此，在下半年，我们必须加强成本削减的力度。你将会在下半年看到取得进展的情况。总的来说，从成本的角度来看，我们预计我们的总成本将下降，销售成本与之相比将下降约20亿，主要是因为大宗商品的下降速度没有想象中那么快。这就是我们期待在下半年成本发展的情况。
Thank you. The next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自美国银行的约翰 · 马菲。请发言。
意思是，谢谢回答问题。接下来的问题来自美国银行的约翰·马菲。请开始提问。
Good afternoon, guys. Just a first question on flea because that seems to be leading the vine recovery here early in 2023. I was curious how much of a tailwind that was for you and where that shows up in the numbers, whether it's all in pro or do we actually see some, something actually showing up on the blue and in east side. And how much do you expect that to continue to sort of be a tailwind, as good for the course of this year, maybe even for the next year or two?
大家下午好。首先问一下跳蚤市场，因为这似乎在2023年初推动了葡萄酒的复苏。我很好奇这对你们来说有多大的助力，它在哪些数字中显示出来，是全部在专业市场里面，还是我们真的看到一些东西出现在蓝色和东区。你们期望这会对今年的情况继续产生一定推动作用，甚至可能会持续到明年或后年吗？
Yeah, the flea business is largely sitting in pro, John. We see that continuing through the year. We see a strength in pro as we go through the year. There's considerable pent up demand. We now have the new Super Duty will be launching the transit the second half of the year. And we expect that to continue. So that's where we see quite a bit of opportunity as we go through the years. We expect profits in pro to double this year versus last year.
“是的，John，跳蚤业务主要是以专业市场为主。我们预计这种趋势将在今年继续。 随着时间的推移，我们预计专业市场将表现强劲，因为有相当大的潜在需求。我们将在第二半年推出全新的超级重型卡车和运输车，这将为我们带来很多机会。我们预计，与去年相比，专业市场的利润将翻倍。”
On blue, what we saw in the first quarter for blue was about flat pricing was up to 10th, a strong mix. Really strong mix and some volume increases in blue in the first quarter. And that strong mix was on F series. And that's because last year we had the traco issue which kept our F series mixed down. Plus we were launching escape this year in the first quarter. So when you look at it, that's where we see things unfolding. When we go through the rest of the year on blue, we expect that mix to come off. That's not gonna repeat itself. As we run through the rest of the year.
在蓝色产业中，第一季度我们看到的定价大致持平，增长了10%，产品组合强劲，而且蓝色产业的销售量也有所增加。其中，F系列的销售非常强劲，这是因为去年我们在F系列上的产品组合出了问题，而今年第一季度我们推出了Escape系列。所以，我们认为这是蓝色产业的发展趋势。当我们走过蓝色产业的整个一年时，我们预计产品组合将改变，这种情况不会再次出现。
On pro, I just wanna highlight a few things, John. There was a huge back order of vehicle, pent up demand for small business in the US and Europe that is still not even close to being satisfied. So yeah, a lot of the bigger fleets, you hauls, you can imagine that they are the truck and van customers. We've done a good job getting them the product they want.
关于Pro，我只想强调几点，约翰。美国和欧洲的小企业有着巨大的车辆后期订单和压抑的需求，但现在还远远没有得到满足。所以，很多大型车队，像是U-Haul，你可以想象的到，它们是卡车和面包车的客户。我们已经很好地为他们提供他们想要的产品。
They still want more, a lot more. And this is before we launch a new super duty and of course a new transit in Europe. So there's a lot of pent up demand for large fleets. But most of the real profitable pro business is small, a medium sized business. And they have been waiting literally three to four years for their transit and super duties. So the pent up demand we're seeing now is really those customers. And there's still a lot of pricing power and lots of pent up orders for.
他们仍然希望有更多的销量，非常多的销量。这还是在我们推出新的超级卡车和欧洲新的运输车型之前。因此，大型车队有着很强的需求。但是，真正有利可图的客户主要是中小型企业。他们已经等待了长达三到四年之久，期待着他们使用的运输车型和超级卡车。因此，我们现在看到的积压需求真正来自这些客户。而且我们还有很大的定价能力和积压订单。
And especially now that we have brand new super duty and transit in Europe, it's gonna be even more intense to get those products. So the larger fleets, we've done a good job getting them more product, but there's a ton of pent up demand for pro vehicles with those small and medium sized business, which is the heart and soul of the team.
尤其现在我们在欧洲推出了全新的超级重型货车和交通工具，获取这些产品的竞争变得更加激烈了。我们已经成功地满足了更大的车队的需求，但对于小型和中型企业来说，专业车辆的需求量仍然很高，这是我们团队的核心和灵魂所在。
And Jim, if I could follow up just on the pricing discussion, there seems to be a change in the philosophy of the way that people are thinking about this, particularly that new large competitor that is cutting price. And that you can cut price on the front end and not make a lot of money on the hardware, but you can make a whole lot of money on the software and services on the back end. So you're not so worried about profit on the front end. You're worried, you think you can make it up on the back end.
嗨，吉姆，如果我能继续谈论定价问题，人们对此的思考方式似乎有所改变，特别是那位新的大竞争对手正在削减价格。你可以在前端降低价格，不在硬件上赚很多钱，但你可以在软件和后端服务上赚很多钱。因此，你不用担心前端的利润，你认为可以在后端弥补它。
And as you think about your business evolving over time, do you think in five years time plus that you're gonna be sort of selling the vehicles hardware and making all the money on the back end? I mean, how should we think about sort of the balance of how the money is earned on vehicles going forward?
当考虑您的业务随时间演化时，您是否认为在未来五年或更长时间内，您会售卖车辆硬件并在后端赚取所有利润？ 我的意思是，我们应该如何平衡未来车辆赚钱的方式？
Well, that business model, I mean, outside of maybe Tesla, that business model is live at well at Ford right now in Pro. So when I answer your question, please understand that we are operating that kind of business where our after sales and software is now, large 30 plus percent attach rates. And I would say the answer is, I am not giving any relief to my vehicle teams for software sales or any kind of margin advantage.
好的，那种商业模式，除了特斯拉可能还能胜任，现在在福特的Pro部门非常成功。所以当我回答你的问题时，请明白我们正在经营这种类型的业务，我们的售后和软件现在有超过30%的占比。我可以说的是，我不会为我的车队提供任何软件销售或任何种类的利润优势。
They, those products have to get to 8% on their own. And we see the software and especially for Pro, the physical after sales, those attach rates and charging equipment that we're seeing 30 plus percent attach rates, that's plus business for us. That's an annuity we wanna create. And we do not wanna commoditize our products. That is not our strategy. Maybe someone else's, but not ours. And that's coming from a company that is already doing, like we could do that now with Trump, but we are not gonna do that. I hope that's clear.
这些产品必须自己达到8%的增长。我们看到软件特别是Pro，以及售后服务、充电设备的挂接率已经达到了30%以上，这对我们来说是一笔生财之道。我们不想让我们的产品成为大众商品，这不是我们的策略。也许其他公司是这样做的，但不是我们。尽管我们已经可以通过跟特朗普合作实现，但我们不会这样做。希望清楚了。
Very helpful, thank you. The next question is from Ryan Brankman with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
非常有帮助，谢谢。下一个问题来自JP摩根的Ryan Brankman。请发言。
All right, thanks for taking my question. I read Jim that you recently said at a charity event in Detroit, we're going to have to rethink what the Ford brand means in a place like China. So where do you think you stand with regard to your China operations currently? I mean, Lincoln seems like a bright spot, but what aspirations do you have for your operations in that market, either in terms of the portfolio or margins or returns and for what timeframe would you like to achieve those aspirations?
好的，感谢您回答我的问题。我在某个慈善活动中读到，您最近说，“我们需要重新思考福特品牌在像中国这样的地方的意义”。那么，您认为目前福特在中国市场的地位如何？我指的是，林肯似乎是一个亮点，但在该市场中，您对产品组合、利润率或回报方面有哪些期望？您希望在什么时间范围内实现这些期望？
Well, thank you, and I guess that's the end of my charity work. But, you know, we, you know, pro and blue are profitable everywhere in the world, including China.
好的，谢谢你。我想我的慈善工作到此结束了。但是，你知道的，在包括中国在内的全世界，我们的专业知识和技能都是很有收益的。
But I'm glad you asked this question because we went to China to finalize our strategy as a leadership team. And I guess I would explain, so our ice business there is profitable, Lincoln's a success, you know, but you have to look at China through the strategy lens because it's not a huge business for us. And we believe that not only is it the biggest EV market in the world, but customers digitally are ahead of the rest of the world.
但我很高兴你问了这个问题，因为我们作为领导团队去中国制定了我们的战略。我想我可以解释一下，我们在那里的冰淇淋业务是有盈利的，林肯也很成功，但你必须透过战略的镜头来看待中国，因为它对我们来说并不是一个巨大的业务。我们相信，中国不仅是世界上最大的电动汽车市场，而且数字客户领先于世界其他地区。
And so it's a really important market for us. And what we really see in our presence there is battery tech, digital experience for the customer and advanced product, both software and hardware integrated. Our strategy going forward in China will change. We're gonna go to a much lower investment, leaner, more focused business in China with higher returns.
因此，这对我们来说是一个非常重要的市场。我们在那里真正看到的是电池技术、数字客户体验和先进的产品，包括软件和硬件的整合。我们在中国的战略将发生改变。我们将采取更低的投资、更精益、更专注于利润更高的业务模式。
And I'll give you an example, and I want to lay out the whole strategy here, but since you asked the question, I think our partnership with JMC is a good example. We are gonna double down our commercial business, including EVs in China. We also believe that JMC can be an export hub for affordable EVs and ice commercial vehicles using the Ford distribution network for our pro business around the world. We have great pro dealers in South America, South Africa in Australia and Mexico, places that we can export.
我给你举个例子，想要布局所有策略，但既然你问了这个问题，我认为我们与江铃汽车的合作是一个好的例子。我们将加倍推动我们在中国的商业业务，包括电动车。我们也相信江铃可以成为一个出口平台，出口廉价的电动车和Ford配送网络用于全球pro业务的商用车。我们在南美、南非、澳大利亚和墨西哥拥有伟大的pro经销商，可以出口至这些地方。
And now we have a source of a fantastic, affordable EVs and commercial ice products with JMC. That's an example of how we're gonna approach China from now on. And we're not gonna try to serve everyone. It'll be a lower investment, leaner, much more focused business in China. And we're gonna have a team on the ground that will be global resources for the company because of how important the market is in EV.
现在我们有了一个与江铃汽车公司合作的源头，可以提供优秀而实惠的电动汽车和商用冰产品。这就是我们从现在开始如何对待中国市场的一个例子。我们不会试图为所有人服务，而是将把业务重心放在中国市场，精益求精，降低投资。我们将在中国建立一个团队，作为公司全球资源，因为电动汽车市场对我们来说非常重要。
Okay, great, thanks. And then just lastly, what is the latest you're seeing in terms of, auto-lone APR, credit availability, maybe in light of some of the turmoil that we've seen in the banking sector in the US. The SARS been very strong this year. Inline are stronger than your expectation for 15 million total SAR, particularly in light of the higher rates, maybe helped by the strong equity news vehicles.
好的，非常感谢。最后一个问题，您最近看到的汽车贷款利率、信用可用性方面的最新情况是什么？考虑到我们在美国银行业中看到的某些动荡，您的看法可能是什么？今年SARS非常强劲，整体SARS数量可能比您预期的1500万高，特别是考虑到更高的利率，可能是由于强劲股票市场的推动。
But just curious, if you're hearing anything maybe different at the margin from your dealers or customers or just how you're thinking about the auto-finance market generally. Yeah, Ryan, it's Mary. And we have seen a number of banks pulling back from auto-lending, which is kind of a whole market of banks through difficult markets.
但只是好奇，如果你从你的经销商或顾客那里获得了一些不同的信息，或者你对汽车金融市场的思考是否有所不同。是的，Ryan，我是Mary。我们已经看到许多银行退出汽车贷款市场，这是因为整个市场在困难的市场环境下。
And that's created a bit of a pricing opportunity for us as well as improvement in share, financing share for us. So I don't see it getting a lot better over the coming months for banks, but the credit availability is still there for customers and captives. Across the industry, you're going to continue to support the OEMs.
这也为我们创造了一些定价机会以及股份和融资股份的改善。因此，我认为在未来几个月内，对于银行来说情况不会有很大的改善，但是对于客户和子公司来说，信贷可用性仍然存在。在整个行业中，我们将继续支持原始设备制造商。
Very helpful. Thank you. The next question is from James Tickarello with BNP Parabas. Please go ahead. Hey, hi everyone. It is first question on price. So it's pricing overall. You still expect it to be neutral for the year.
非常有帮助。谢谢。下一个问题来自BNP Paribas的James Tickarello。请发言。
嘿，大家好。这是关于价格的第一个问题。所以，总体上的定价，你们仍然期望它在今年是中性的。
New sounds as though blue is guy to be negative for the full year as incentive spend picks up. But yeah, can you just help them back how we should be thinking about this year's price for Model E and Pro with the super-duty strength still to come.
新的声音像是暗示蓝色可能会在全年内保持负面趋势，因为激励开支在上升。但是，是的，你能帮助他们回到我们应该如何看待今年 Model E 和 Pro 的价格，同时超级强度仍在到来。
大意：这段话提到了一些市场趋势以及企业的产品定价策略，建议重点关注今年的车型价格以及即将推出的可行驶距离更长的超级车型。
Yeah, so overall for us, our bridge, from 2223, we expect pricing for us to be neutral. We still expect that to be the case. We do expect the second half to see pricing pressures, especially on blue as we see supply and demand normalized.
嗯，对我们来说，总体而言，我们的协议从2223开始，我们预计我们的定价将是中性的。我们仍然期望如此。我们预计下半年会出现定价压力，特别是在蓝色领域，因为我们看到供需逐渐趋于平衡。
Pro, we believe, they'll be pricing strength throughout the year. And on E, we see pricing being slightly down on a year over your basis as well. So overall, no change to what we had talked about at the teaching, we see pricing is neutral for Ford. Okay, got it.
在专业市场中，我们认为在整个年份内会有定价优势。在E方面，我们预计同比价格略有下降。总的来说，在我们之前讨论的范围内，我们认为福特的定价是中性的。好的，明白了。
And then just to confirm, you talked about 20% of minus 20% Model E margins for the second half, is that right? Contribution margin, yeah. Contribution margin. Okay, all right, thank you. Appreciate it.
然后只是确认一下，您提到了Model E 在下半年的20%利润率减去20%的情况，是吗？是贡献利润率，对的。好的，谢谢。感激不尽。
Total, sorry about, no, no, no. Total margin, contribution margin positive. Total margin would be, even margin would be minus 20. Got it, yeah, so that might follow on to that. That's what I thought you'd say. Can you help ridge what the benefits are from a materials perspective, scaling?
总的来说，很抱歉，没有，没有，没有。总利润边际为正数。总利润为负20。我明白了，可能会跟随发展。你能帮忙解释一下材料层面的优势和规模化吗？
In terms of the buckets, maybe that you provided at the teaching, what helps get to that minus 20% of minus 20% run rate for the second half, thanks.
关于您在教学中提供的桶，能否说明一下如何帮助我们在下半年达成负20%的运营率，谢谢。
It's not different than what's in the teaching. I mean, when you look at it, we're gonna scale through the year. We start to grow volumes. We have the LFP battery coming in, and then we have the design reductions that Jim talked about getting to about a $5,000 reduction on Machee, we have a significant reduction in play on lightning as well.
这并不与教学上的内容有什么不同。我的意思是，当你看到了它，我们将会随着时间逐渐扩大规模。我们开始增加产量。我们即将推出LFP电池，并且像Jim所说的那样，我们将在Machee上实现大约5,000美元的设计降低，我们还将在闪电上实现重要的降价。
So it's the same buckets that we talked about at the teaching. Thanks. Next.
所以这些桶是我们在授课中谈论过的相同桶。谢谢。接下来。
Next question is from Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的丹·列维。请你提问。
Hi, good evening, thanks for taking the question. I just want to follow up on that last question on the contribution margin. And I know you didn't disclose contribution margin at the teaching, but you know, at the midpoint of, if I look at what you disclose in your deck, it's roughly negative $4,000 contribution margin right now. And you said a lot of this is on sort of material reduction. So I just want to understand how easily you can reduce content mid cycle, you know, the product.
大家好，晚上好，很感谢你回答我的问题。我想跟进最后一个提到的贡献利润问题。虽然我知道你们在讲解中没有披露贡献利润，但从你们提供的资料中可以看到，现在大致上是负4000美元的贡献利润。你也提到其中很多是物料减少导致的。因此，我想了解一下你们在产品生命周期中如何轻松地降低内容。
I know you said that there are some design changes that you can do, but physically you see more material, content modifications at the end of a product cycle. So just want to get a sense of your visibility on content modifications to get that contribution margin to break even.
我知道你说你可以做出一些设计上的改变，但实际上在产品周期的末期你还需要进行更多的物料和内容上的修改。所以我想了解一下你对于内容修改的可见度，以便达到贡献利润的盈亏平衡点。
So there's a couple of things you can do from a content standpoint to drive your costs down. One of them is we're using the digital connectivity of the vehicle to understand what features the customers find valuable. And if they're not using something that we have on the vehicle, we can design that out. The other thing we're doing is, as Jim said, we didn't wait on Machee. So we started to put together what we thought of as bundled actions into minor programs as we work through Model E and we're launching those as we go through the year this year and into next year to get us to that $5,000 reduction.
从内容角度来说，有几个方法可以降低成本。其中一个是利用车辆的数字连接性来了解客户认为有价值的功能。如果他们没有使用我们在车辆上拥有的某些功能，我们可以将其设计出来。另一个方法是，就像Jim所说，我们没有等待Machee，而是开始将我们认为的捆绑操作组成小型程序，随着我们推出Model E，我们将在今年和明年陆续推出这些程序，让我们实现5000美元的降低成本。
You know, as a first mover, you know, we felt it was important to get to market quickly. We've readily admitted that the design and efficiency of our first generation products isn't where it needs to be. And we're working on that, those reductions now. And we're taking all the learnings from that and incorporating it into our second generation products. And we'll talk more about that in a couple of weeks at Capital MarketStid. So yeah, there's things you can do. You just need to be thoughtful about it as you go through the product. And where there's opportunities, you bundle them together, you do a minor launch, you do a change, and you go. And that's what we're doing on E. And we're using the connected data to take out features that the customers don't value.
作为第一批开拓者，我们认为快速进入市场很重要。我们承认我们第一代产品的设计和效率远未达到所需水平。我们正在努力改进这些缺陷，并将其转化为第二代产品的经验。在未来几周的资本市场研讨会上，我们将详细讨论这一点。你可以做很多事情，只要在产品开发过程中仔细思考，利用机会进行捆绑营销，进行小范围推广和改进，然后再推出。这正是我们在E产品上所做的，我们利用连接数据删除客户不需要的功能。
Great, thank you. And then as my follow up, I just want to touch on some of the earlier questions that were asked and this notion of how you're looking at volume. You know, and I think the message clearly you're making is that you're not necessarily, you're balancing that volume with profit. But historically, this has been a business that is dictated by volume.
很好，谢谢。接下来，我想回答一些之前提出的问题，关于你如何看待销量的问题。我认为，你的明确表态是你不仅仅考虑销量，而是在平衡销量和利润。但在历史上，该业务通常是由销量主导的。
This is dictated by utilization. And if I read your comments correctly that you're focused on sort of unique segments and you want to sort of get out of the fray a little bit, that would probably tell me that if you're punching at 4 million units a year now, which is low versus actually where you've been historically, that if you're focused on these more premium segments or more unique segments, that there could be a much lower volume going forward.
这是由利用率决定的。如果我正确地读懂了您的评论，您的重点是独特的细分市场，您希望脱离一些竞争，那么这可能告诉我，如果您现在每年生产400万个单位，这与您历史上的生产量相比较低，如果您专注于这些更高档的细分市场或更独特的细分市场，那么未来的生产量可能会大幅降低。
So how should we think about your volume or volume? I realize that's probably a better question for the CMD, but how are you thinking about sort of structurally what type of volume you should look at in the future?
那么我们应该如何考虑你们的销量或者容量呢？我明白这可能更适合询问CMD，但你们对于未来的销量结构是如何考虑的呢？请尽量简单易懂地表达。
Good question. So I want to make it really clear that our growth strategy for the company is very aggressive and it focuses on conquest customers. So we plan to grow and that capacity increase for E and Pro is mostly additive to the company's overall growth. And what gives us confidence in that is that we are targeting conquests, vehicles, and software to customer categories that we know really well.
这是个好问题。我想要让大家清楚地知道，我们公司的增长战略非常积极，并且注重争夺新客户。因此我们计划扩大规模，而E和Pro的容量增长主要是对公司整体发展的一种补充。我们有信心，因为我们的目标是将车辆和软件留给我们熟悉的客户群体。
It's not lost on us that when we launched lightning, almost all the full-size pickup truck, EV customers were new to Ford and new to the segment. So what we learn in lightning's case, a segment traditionally has been 13% of the industry for pretty much my whole career can be much, much bigger when you add new product features like a frunk, lockable storage for full-size truck, zero emissions, and the ability to power your house for three days. A lot of new customers bought a lightning that never owned a pickup truck before.
我们清楚地知道，当我们推出闪电版时，几乎所有购买全尺寸皮卡电动车的消费者都是新加入福特和该市场领域的。因此，通过闪电版的案例，我们发现，传统上只占行业13%的市场，加入了新的产品特点，如前备箱、可锁定的全尺寸卡车储物、零排放和为房屋供电三天的功能，会变得更加巨大。许多新客户购买了闪电版，而他们之前从未拥有过皮卡车。
And we intend to do that with free-raw crossover and with a bunch of EV Pro vehicles, which we think will be huge growth for us. So you should expect that a lot of that capacity we're putting in is for growth for the company, but we are not gonna grow at any cost. We're gonna manage that incremental new growth for profitability and growth together. And we've put a lot of thinking into our product strategy.
我们计划通过免费原料交叉和一系列电动车辆来实现这一目标，我们认为这对我们来说将是巨大的增长机遇。因此，您应该期望我们投入很多能力是为了公司的增长，但我们不会不惜一切代价去增长。我们将同时管理盈利和增长的新增长。我们已经考虑了很多关于我们的产品战略。
One of the most important aspects of our product strategy is not to have too much top-hat engineering. We wanna have a lot of scale per top-hat. And again, we'll go into this cap on market stage you said because I think it's best to answer there with real examples where you can really see our strategy coming to life. But we've learned a lot from lightning and from Machee. Frankly, the number of new customers we're seeing is very encouraging for us because of our capacity increase. And we know that the second cycle product can be radically simpler and lower cost. Aside from the scaling effect. And again, we'll lay this out in cap on market stage for you and for everyone else.
我们产品策略中最重要的一个方面是不要有太多的顶帽工程。我们希望每个顶帽都有很大的规模。而且，我们会在您提到的市场阶段中设定上限，因为我认为最好用真实的例子来回答，这样您可以真正看到我们的策略实现。但是我们从Lightning和Machee中学到了很多。坦率地说，由于我们的产能增加，我们看到的新客户数量非常令人鼓舞。除了规模效应外，我们知道第二个周期的产品可以变得更简单和更低成本。再次，在市场上，我们将为您和其他所有人明确阐述这一点。
Great, thank you. The next question is from Tom Nareian with RBC. Please go ahead. Hi guys, thanks for taking the question. Just had two quick follow-ups. So for blue, it sounds like the downshift that I implied in the rest of the year is really coming more from MIX and not price. As you're saying in that neutral on price for the full year, is that right? Yeah, so MIX, we have very strong MIX and Q1. We don't expect that to repeat as we go through the year. And we do expect on the full year basis that we will see some pressures on pricing in blue on a full year basis as we go through the second half of the year. Remember, what's really important is to understand that run rate of price as you come out of the back end of the year because you have the approval impact for all of the units that are in stock. And then you have to take the incentive levels from Q1 of 2024 and apply it to those units that are in stock. So you've got to think about that on a run rate business coming out of the end of the year. But overall, yeah, it's for blue, we definitely see that there'll be some pressure on pricing. OK.
非常好，谢谢。下一个问题来自RBC的Tom Nareian。请提问。嗨，大家好，感谢回答问题。我有两个快速的跟进问题。对于蓝色，听起来我所暗示的今年剩余时间的下滑更多来自MIX而非价格。你说对价格全年保持中性，是吗？是的，MIX在第一季度非常强劲。我们不认为这将在今年的余下时间内重复。而就整个年度而言，我们预计在蓝色方面在全年基础上会看到一些价格压力，因为我们进入今年下半年。请记住，真正重要的是要了解从年底开始的价格基础，因为您必须考虑库存中所有单位的批准影响。然后，您必须将2024年第一季度的激励水平应用于这些库存单位。因此，您必须考虑这一运营率业务是从年底开始的。但总的来说，是的，对于蓝色，我们肯定会看到一些价格压力。好的。
And then another follow up. So on this question of attach rates, you have 30% attach rate on Pro, which is amazing. And just curious, as you think about that, is there an incentive perhaps to increase that attach rate perhaps by sacrificing on price? Presumably, those subscription revenues come in at higher margins. Or is the view, we're not going to, at the end of the day, we make these products and the subscription services are add on to enhance the product. I mean, how do you think about that trade off? Thanks. It's a great question. Right now, given the order bank we see for Pro's business, the more we can invest in profitable, high growth products that the better. But you should think it's a very important question you're asking for Pro, because I don't think everyone would realize that the margins on software and the margins on parts are actually pretty similar. So in the end of the day, the customer wants us to have fantastic products for Pro, but they're largely regulated, kind of a box or pick up truck pet or whatever. So really, for the customer, the value is going to be the software, the attached rates, and the experience they get with an integrated approach.
又有一个跟进问题。关于附加率的问题，您的Pro产品有30%的附加率，这非常惊人。我很好奇，您是否有增加附加率的动力，可能通过牺牲价格来实现？假设这些订阅收入的利润率更高。或者是认为，我们最终生产这些产品，而订阅服务只是增强产品的附加产品。我是说，您如何权衡这一问题？谢谢。这是一个很好的问题。目前，考虑到我们为Pro业务看到的订单量，我们能够投资于利润丰厚、高增长的产品的越多，就越好。但您应该认为这是个非常重要的问题，因为我认为并不是每个人都意识到软件和零部件的利润率实际上是相当类似的。因此，在最终的分析中，客户希望我们提供优秀的Pro产品，但它们主要是受监管的、像箱子或皮卡车一样的产品。所以，对于客户来说，价值在于软件、附加率和他们在综合方法下的体验。
Think about this future state, which we are executing to. 100% prediction of failure of components before they fail. You censor the vehicle to do that. It's integrated in software. The software gets better every day, so you can predict failure more precisely and for more components. The customer gets a vehicle that never really goes out of service. If you're a small, medium-sized commercial pro customer, which is most of the time in Europe and US, those customers, they take one van down. That's 20% of the revenue. So they will pay because they can drive more business with a vehicle that's never off the road. So think about this not as a trade-off between the vehicle profit, the parts business, and the software. Think about it from the customer standpoint as an integrated approach, where everything is designed for each other, where you can't think of doing prognostics without a vehicle designed to do that, or the fulfillment of the parts business pre-picking the part before the customer even gets there so that they can do the service really quickly. So the vehicle is not off the road for very long, if it does need service.
考虑一下我们正在实现的未来状态。在零部件故障之前，对零部件故障的预测率达到100%。您可以对车辆进行审查以实现这一点，这已经集成在软件中了。每天软件都变得更好，因此您可以更精确地预测故障并更多地涵盖部件。客户会得到一辆基本不需要维修的汽车。 如果您是欧洲和美国大多数时间都面对的小型和中型商业客户，它们只要停用一辆车，就损失了20%的业务收入。因此，他们会乐意支付费用，因为他们可以使用从未停运的车辆从事更多业务。因此，不要将其视为车辆利润，零件业务和软件之间的权衡。从客户的角度来看，将其作为综合性方法来考虑，其中所有事物都是互相设计的，其中您不能想象进行预后诊断而没有一个设计用于执行该功能的车辆，或者提前准备零部件业务以在客户到达之前进行零部件拣选，以便能够快速地进行维修服务，因此，如果车辆确实需要维修，那么它的停运时间并不会很长。
So I don't really think we think of it from the customer standpoint as a trade from margin. We think of designing the whole system so that every piece of it adds value. And you can't kind of think of the physical product of the software independently of each other. Now, it may turn out over time, let's say, on the low part of pro that's a software in the parts business more profitable. But from the customer standpoint, we're designing the pro business where they're inseparable. Like the prognostic example. I hope that makes sense to you. Yeah, it does. Thank you.
说实话，我们并不认为客户从保证金交易的角度来看待这个问题。我们考虑的是设计整个系统，使它的每个部分都具有增值的作用。同时，你不能在物理产品和软件之间进行独立思考。当然，长期来看，比如在软件和零部件业务的低端，可能会发现软件更加盈利。但从客户的角度来看，我们正在设计专业业务，使其不可分割，就像先见之明的例子一样。希望我的话有意义，能够对你有所帮助。嗯，我明白了，谢谢。
And the last question today is from Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much.
So I think you're an unsurprised cut on the Mac E today. And to your point, Jim, I think this is a more competitive segment within all the various EV segments. Can you maybe comment on the demand environment for lightning? There's, I've seen some anecdotal evidence of some decent amount sitting on some dealers' lots. I read that you're planning to ship some to no way, which it feels like the US pickup market should have more demand than your ability to supply. So can you just maybe talk a little bit about where lightning demand is in general and where there's sort of like cost actions on EDs in order to bring down the price?
最后一个问题来自德意志银行的Emmanuel Rosner。请继续。
非常感谢。
我认为今天Mac E的降价应该不会让你感到意外。而且，Jim，我认为在所有不同的电动汽车细分市场中，这是一个更具竞争力的细分市场。您可以评论一下闪电的需求环境吗？我看到有一些铺放在一些经销商的停车场上的证据。我读到您计划将一些电池车出口到挪威，感觉美国的皮卡市场应该比您的供应能力更有需求。所以您可以谈谈闪电需求的总体状况，以及为了降低价格而采取的ED成本措施吗？
But there's only one or two in the market. So I can understand why maybe some people would look at it that way if they don't have a product in the market. But from our standpoint, the lightning demand is outstanding. We've taken $11,000 worth of pricing, enlightening $11,000. And yes, thank goodness that we are seeing now some dealer stock for the first time in like two years for lightning. And we're really excited about our cost reductions. And of course, the software we're shipping to the vehicle like Bluepoos 1.2. But the demand for lightning is really, really strong. I look at, bring a trailer every week, because two years ago, it was like, I don't know, the most popular new vehicle on bring a trailer was a lightning with four miles on it that someone was flipping. And the prices have come down, and they're basically at MSRP now. So we're selling it a full MSRP. The demand is higher. In fact, I would say that the pricing is higher than MSRP still. And we're totally sold out in Norway like we are everywhere. So this is a global segment, we believe. Ford is clearly the number one pickup truck maker in the world. Or we're not going to just keep our pickup trucks in the US. It's a global market. So we feel great about the demand or else we wouldn't be doubling production this year.
市场上只有一、两款这样的产品，所以如果没有市场的产品，我可以理解为什么有些人会这样看。但从我们的角度来看，Lightning的需求非常突出。我们已经以11,000美元的价格售出了等同于11,000美元的Lightning。而且，谢天谢地，我们现在已经看到了两年来的第一批Lightning的经销商库存，我们对成本的降低感到非常兴奋。当然，我们正在向车辆提供类似于Bluepoos 1.2的软件。但Lightning的需求非常强烈。我每周都关注拖车带来的情况，因为两年前，拖车上最受欢迎的新车是一辆只行驶了4英里的Lightning，有人在翻新它。价格已经下降了，现在基本上与MSRP相同。因此，我们正在以全额MSRP销售。需求更高了。实际上，我认为价格仍然高于MSRP。我们在挪威像在其他地方一样完全售罄。我们相信这是一个全球性的市场。福特显然是世界上排名第一的皮卡制造商。或者我们不会仅仅把我们的皮卡留在美国。这是一个全球市场。因此，如果需求不强劲，我们就不会在今年将产能翻倍。
Thanks for that, Jim. And then just maybe one follow up for John. So, curious if you could just put a final point on the puts and takes for your unchanged 2023 guidance. I think you mentioned in terms of costs from materials and freight, maybe now $2 billion benefit, instead of $2.5 billion. Are there any other big pieces which are there more or less of a benefit or headwind than you saw previously?
感谢你的回答，吉姆。然后我有一个问题想问约翰。你可以总结一下你们对2023年业绩预测所做的加减吗？你之前提到材料和运输成本的节省可能会有20亿美元的好处，而不是之前的25亿美元。还有没有其他关键部分比之前更有益或更具风险？
Yeah, sure. So we had shared what we thought the bridge was earlier this year. And so, as I said, we think pricing overall for us will be about neutral for the year. We said that our COGs are primarily material logistics. We had said it would be about $2.5 billion. We think it's about $2 billion now. That's primarily due to commodities, not coming down as quickly as we had thought. Volumes, we were up 9% in Q1. We expect to be about up about 6%, 6% for the full year overall. So I think you can look at that. And those are the three areas that have basically changed versus what we had bridged before. We see past service pension at about $2 billion negative credit. We don't change there. We're about that one for. And we're going to continue to invest and grow up. And then we saw exchange another of about a billion. So that bridge largely remains the same, except we got a little bit of movement between some volume and some commodity costs.
是的，当然。所以我们早些时候已经分享了我们对这座桥的看法。正如我所说，我们认为我们的定价在全年整体上将保持中立。我们曾经说过我们的成本主要是物料物流，大约是25亿美元。现在我们认为是20亿美元。这主要是由于商品价格没有我们预计的下降得那么快。我们在第一季度销量增长了9%。我们预计全年销量总体增长约6%。你可以看到这一点。这些都是与我们之前预测的三个方面不同的地方。我们认为过去的服务养老金约为20亿美元的负债。我们没有改变这一点。我们将继续投资和成长。我们预计汇率将有约10亿美元的涨幅。所以这个桥梁基本上保持不变，除了销量和商品成本方面略有些许变化。
Perfect. Thank you. Excuse me, this concludes the Ford Motor Company first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
非常好。谢谢。对不起，这就结束了福特汽车公司2023年第一季度盈利电话会议。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话了。