Why car leasing sucks right now (EP3)

What's up everybody welcome to the third episode of the car dealership guy podcast I am your host car dealership guy and today I want to talk about car leasing. I get this question a lot car dealership guy. What is going on with car leasing? Why are the payments so crazy high? I leased BMW for $300 a month three four years ago now they want $600 a month. Why is this happening? There's a very good reason for why it's happening and I'll take you through that.

大家好，欢迎来到《汽车店家人》播客的第三集。我是您的主持人——汽车店家人，今天我想谈谈汽车租赁。作为汽车店家人，我经常被问到这个问题——汽车租赁怎么了？为什么付款如此高昂？我三四年前每月只付300美元就租了一辆宝马，现在他们要我付每月600美元。这是为什么？其实这背后有一个非常好的原因，接下来我将为您详细解释。

I'll also talk about how leasing is impacting use car prices and how it's going to continue impacting use car prices for Several years to come at the minimum and so without further ado. Let's get into the show. Let's just start with some high-level context right historically. Why has car leasing been a popular Mechanism for consumers to get transportation. It starts with the fact that leasing gives you the option to drive a newer car at a lower monthly payment relative to if you would be buying that car. I mean because at the end of the day You're not buying the car. You're just leasing it for a couple of years.

我也会谈谈租赁如何影响二手车价格以及它将继续影响二手车价格至少数年，因此，不多说了，进入正文吧。我们先从一些高层次的背景开始。历史上，为什么租车一直是消费者获取交通工具的流行机制。这是因为租赁为您提供了在每月较低的付款下驾驶一辆更新的汽车的选择，相对于如果您购买该车，您的付款将更高。我的意思是，因为最终的目的是不购买汽车，只是租用它几年。

Typically you'll get some prepaid maintenance package So you don't have to worry about maintenance for two to three years and at the end of the day you return that car You know, it's not your problem. You trade into something brand new and you're good to go and so not the smartest Financial decision necessarily, but obviously a great quality of life decision if that's what's important to you And you prefer the piece of mind that comes with leasing. Well leasing has changed a lot and leasing is down across the board big time. It's one of the areas of the car business that's been impacted the most since pre-COVID if you just look at the data on the stats around February 2019 leasing penetration the percentage of consumers that are buying the car But you know opting to leased it instead to actually buying it it actually peaked around February 2019 at 34%.

通常你会得到一些预付维护套餐，所以你不用为维护操心两三年，最后你归还汽车，问题就不是你的了。你可以换成全新的车，而且轻松愉快地上路，尽管这可能不是最明智的财务决策，但如果你更注重生活品质，喜欢租赁所带来的安心感，那这无疑是一个很好的选择。然而，租赁方式已经发生了很大的变化，全线下降。如果你查看2019年2月的数据和统计信息，你会发现租赁率正处于下降趋势，即消费者购买汽车时更倾向于租赁而非购买，而该比例在2019年2月达到最高点，约为34%。

Right, so we're one in three consumers around that time. We're actually leasing their car Take a guess what that number is today it's around the mid teens and so lease penetration has fallen about 20 points Since 2019 which is extremely meaningful, but the question I'm getting asked a lot is why what is going on and Why is this happening and there's three major reasons and I'll run you through all of them right now. The first thing is that the fact that we've had higher vehicle prices and interest rates has just made the lease equation less attractive for consumers.

好的，那么在那个时期，我们是三分之一的消费者之一。我们实际上正在租赁他们的汽车。猜猜今天的数字是多少？大约是十几岁，所以自2019年以来，租赁渗透率已下降了约20个百分点，这非常有意义。但是，我被问得最多的问题是为什么？为什么会发生这种情况？有三个主要原因，我现在将一一为您解释。首先，事实是，汽车价格和利率上涨，使得租赁方程对消费者不再那么有吸引力。

If you look at pre-COVID and if you fast forward all the way to today right so say the last roughly three years three and a half years The average car payment is up about 29% But the average lease payment since that period is up about 34% and so you have a five point spread between the two and that five point spread is very meaningful for consumers right This is it's one aspect that has made leasing less attractive But the fact is today if you want to lease a car and again, it's not every brand But generally speaking it's most brands the payment equation is not as attractive And you're going to end up paying more for that car or the spread will be smaller between purchasing it and leasing it Then it would have been several years ago Naturally when the financial incentive declines then consumers are less likely to want to lease a car.

如果您看看疫情前和今天的情况，比如大约三年至三年半的时间内，平均汽车贷款上涨了约29%。但自那时以来，平均租赁支付增加了约34%，因此两者之间有五个百分点的差距。这五个百分点对消费者来说非常有意义，这是使租赁不太吸引人的一方面。但事实是，今天如果您想租一辆车，虽然不是每个品牌，但一般来说是大多数品牌，支付方程式并不那么有吸引力。您将付出更多的钱来租这辆车，或者购买和租赁之间的差距将比几年前更小。当金融激励减少时，消费者自然而然地不太愿意租车。

This ties in to the second point which is that car manufacturers They have not had a lot of supply over our last couple of years. We've been in this super supply constrained market due to tip shortages and you know all these other reasons But as an OEM when you don't have a lot of supply. You actually prefer to sell a car as opposed to lease a car because selling a car upfront has some different economics And it's actually better for you to put another car in a road data consumers purchasing Then just putting out another lease and when you're faced with a question Okay, I let me just apply what should I do? Well, I I rather sell the car so let me reduce the incentives on the car leases so that fewer people opt in for that.

这与第二点有关，即汽车制造商在过去几年中未能提供足够的供应。由于零部件短缺和其他原因，我们一直处于供应严重受限的市场中。但是，作为一家原始设备制造商，当你没有太多的供应时，你实际上更喜欢销售汽车而不是租赁汽车，因为直接销售汽车有一些不同的经济效益。而且，对你来说最好的选择是让更多消费者购买汽车，而不是只是提供更多的租赁。当你面临一个问题时，‘我要怎么做’，我宁愿卖车，因此我将降低汽车租赁的激励措施，以便更少的人选择租赁。

The third reason why leasing is down Is an interesting one and I actually fall into this bucket personally my my wife had a new lexist that the lease was up about a year ago And we were going to return it and then I said wait wait a second. This doesn't make any sense I ran the math I ran the the man high market value, which is you know the wholesale value I ran its traded numbers and I just realized that it does not make sense for me personally to return this car To the dealer or to the lender lexist financial because I'm in the money, right? So the car has appreciated a lot more than the residual value the residual value is just a fancy term for the value of the car If I had to you know pay it off today to lexist, which is what I ended up doing and so I'm just one example of this But there's plenty more in the market that I've fallen to this bucket and that I've had this that had done the same Math the same calculus and I've said it does not make sense for me to return my car to the dealer and let me just hold on to it.

第三个导致汽车租赁下降的原因很有趣，而我也个人会受到影响。我的妻子曾经租了一辆凌志，租期大约在一年前结束，本应该把车归还给经销商或金融公司，但我想了一下，这样做并没有意义。我运算了这辆车的市场价值、批发价值以及交易数据，发现按当前情况，我并不需要归还车辆。因为车辆的增值超过了剩余价值，即汽车的价值。最后，我选择了将租车款一次性支付给凌志，这就是其中的一个例子。市场上有很多人做出了相同的决定，他们也计算了市场价值、批发价值和交易数据，并得出了“不归还车辆”的结论。

And that's exactly the next point which is that Fewer people are returning their cars to dealers and if that is doing two things number one It's lowering lease penetration because the leasing cohort or you know people that lease cars is a very steady cohort of consumers Typically of course there's fluctuation But people that love leasing and they prefer that choir car that way and that's to prefer lifestyle They love leasing and They do it consistently and so with fewer people that lease cars choosing to buy them out instead Uh 20% to be exact right that's the difference of consumers from around 2019 till today that are opting in to actually Purchase their leases opposed to return it Well, that's putting more pressure on the use car market and of course it's reducing the demand for leasing.

这恰好是下一个点，也就是越来越少的人将他们的汽车还给经销商，这会带来两件事。第一，这降低了租赁渗透率，因为租车人群通常是一个非常稳定的消费者群体。当然，有波动，但是那些喜欢租赁并喜欢这种购车方式的人很坚定，他们喜欢租赁，一直保持这种方式。现在，越来越少租车人选择购买车辆而不是将其退回经销商，确切地说，从2019年到现在有大约20%的消费者选择实际购买其租赁车辆而不是将其退回，这会对二手车市场产生更大的压力，并且当然也会降低租赁市场的需求。

All those three points combined the fact that we have higher prices higher interest rates lease offers are just not as compelling and the car manufacturers are specifically driving that And lastly the fact that fewer people are returning their leases to the dealerships. All that is resulting in reduced lease penetration as they mentioned down 34% from the peak of February 19 to the midteens today. And so the question I always get is how will this impact the use car prices and the use car market for years to come. And the answer is that it's going to have a very big significant impact because we're not replenishing the use car market with new supply.

所有这些因素加起来，这是一个事实：我们的价格越来越高，利率也越来越高，租赁优惠也不再具有吸引力，而车辆制造商特意推动这种情况。最后，归还租赁车辆给经销商的人数越来越少。所有这些都导致租赁率下降，如他们所述，从2021年2月的峰值下降了34％至今天的中期。所以我经常被问到的问题是，这会如何影响未来数年的二手车价格和二手车市场。答案是它会有非常重要和显著的影响，因为我们没有用新的供应来补充二手车市场。

20% fewer leases being returned to dealers. The lease penetration overall down from 34% to about 12 to 15%. All that is just we're going to result in fewer cars entering the secondary market.

20%的租赁合同被客户退还给经销商的数量减少了，整体租赁渗透率从34%下降到约12%至15%。这都将导致更少的汽车进入二级市场。

It's no secret that use car prices have remained relatively steady throughout all this craziness and throughout interest rate increases. And it's simply because people that would have otherwise maybe gone for a lease or you know purchased that new car. Well, they're priced out of that market now.

众所周知，在这个疯狂的时期和利率上升的背景下，二手车价格一直保持相对稳定。这仅仅是因为那些本来可能会选择租赁或购买新车的人，现在被排斥在那个市场之外了。

They know that hey, this does not make sense. I don't want to pay 700 dollars for a lease or whatever the payment is. Well, let me just go to the use car market and I'll buy a six-pensive car there. Needless to say, they end up overpaying for some car because the use car market is also up over 40% in the last three years.

他们知道这不合理，我不想为租车支付700美元或者其他款项。那么，我就去二手车市场买一辆便宜的车。不用说，他们最终会为某些车付出过高的价格，因为过去三年二手车市场也上涨了40%。

But it's still cheaper than what you'll otherwise pay on a monthly basis in lease or a new car purchase. I would say that we should expect this to continue this way. Unfortunately, until all OEMs rebound their supply and we see that lease offers become compelling again.

但是与每月的租赁费用或购买新车相比仍然更便宜。我认为我们应该期望这种情况会继续下去。不幸的是，在所有原始设备制造商都恢复供应并且我们看到租赁优惠再次变得有吸引力之前，情况可能会持续。

And lease penetration begins to rise because maybe the pricing equation is a bit more attractive. There's more incentives and it makes more sense for consumers to lease a car as opposed to buy a car. Until that point, we're going to exceed this continued pressure on the use car market.

“租赁率开始上升，可能是因为价格问题更加有吸引力。有更多的激励措施，对消费者来说租赁一辆车比购买更有意义。在此之前，我们将继续看到对二手车市场的持续压力。”

And it's going to be mainly impacted by the fact that people are just not leasing as many cars. So I hope I hope you found that helpful and it taught you a couple of things about what is going on in the current state of leasing.

这主要是由于人们租赁汽车的数量减少所导致的影响。希望这能对您有所帮助，并教会您一些关于当前租赁状况的知识。

How this is going to impact the use car market and what's to come. I'll keep you posted on if there are any changes. That's all for today. Please don't forget to like and subscribe. Follow the show and I'll see you next week. Bye. Bye.

这将如何影响二手车市场，未来会出现什么情况。如果有任何变化，我会让你知道。今天就到这吧。请不要忘记点赞和订阅。请关注节目，下周见。拜拜。