Carvana’s secret sauce, what’s next for auto lenders, pros/cons of credit unions | Chris Coleman

Somebody asking the other day like would you want to run Carvana as a business? For sure not like I it's so operation intensive. I mean We're gonna believe that part out

前几天有人问，你想把Carvana作为一项业务经营吗？肯定不想，因为它需要非常高的操作密集度。我的意思是，我们不要考虑这个方面。

What's up everyone? This is car dealership guy You're listening to the car dealership guy podcast Which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market before we start I need your help to grow the car dealership guy community Please take a second to subscribe to the show and leave us a rating below so that more people can benefit from this content

大家好，我是汽车经销商。欢迎收听我的《汽车经销商》播客节目。通过这个节目，我努力为大家提供最客观透明的汽车市场见解。在我们开始之前，我需要大家的帮助，让《汽车经销商》社群变得更大。请花费一点时间订阅我们的节目，并留下您的评级，这样更多的人可以从这些内容中获益。

All right, let's get into today's show Chris Coleman is co-founder of clutch a fintech startup founded in 2020 with the purpose of creating Digital lending experiences for credit unions prior to founding clutch Chris co-founder company called Carlipsa, which was ultimately acquired by Carvana in 2017

好的，让我们进入今天的节目。克里斯·科尔曼是 Clutch 的联合创始人，该公司是一家成立于2020年的金融科技初创公司，旨在为信用社创造数字借贷体验。在创立 Clutch 之前，克里斯还共同创立了一家名为 Carlipsa 的公司，该公司最终于2017年被Carvana收购。

In this conversation We spoke about selling Carlips out of Carvana how to get the lowest interest rates when buying a car Founding and growing his new startup clutch why Carvana was able to pay top dollar for your car in 2021 and will Carvana actually survive Here's my conversation with Chris Coleman

在这次谈话中，我们谈到了关于从卡尔嘉（Carlips）出售汽车的话题，以及如何在购买汽车时获得最低的利率。我们还聊到了创立和发展他的新创业公司Clutch的经历，以及为什么Carvana在2021年能够以极高的价格购买你的车，以及Carvana是否能够继续生存下去。以下是我与克里斯・科尔曼（Chris Coleman）的谈话内容。

All views of car dealership guy and any guests on this podcast are so weak their opinions You should not treat any opinion expressed by car dealership guy or any guest as a specific inducement to make a particular investment This podcast is for informational purposes on me

这个播客中汽车经销商的观点以及任何客人的观点都很薄弱，你不应将他们所表达的任何观点视为特定投资的诱因。这个播客只是提供信息。

All right Chris great you have here From Stanford to use cars. I mean what the fuck like how does that happen? Please explain us to me Yeah, I mean I think it wasn't quite that directly, but yeah, my parents have the same question Yeah, so I met a co-founder Nick at Stanford Business School. I had actually always been a core enthusiast growing up and so I worked for a number of random car companies too, by the way So I was always trying to figure out whether this is actually a career in cars

嗯，太棒了Chris，你来自斯坦福大学，并且现在使用汽车。这怎么可能？请和我解释一下。嗯，我觉得并不是那么直接，但是我的父母也有同样的问题。事实上，我在斯坦福商学院认识了合伙人Nick。我从小就一直是汽车爱好者，所以我也曾在一些汽车公司工作过。我一直在努力找出在汽车领域是否可以发展职业。

So I worked for McKinsey Thinking I would get to work at lead you know as an exact exact car companies didn't have and I worked all sorts of other Random things including casinos which obviously has nothing to do with cars Then I followed a boss to this company called Coda automotive. Do you remember hearing about them? I don't they they were like they were trying to import this car from China and electrify it the whole thing turned out to be somewhat not a scam, but like they could never It's close to a scam is not a scam

我曾经在麦肯锡工作，认为我可以在一些精准的汽车公司工作。但实际上，我还从事过各种随机的工作，包括赌场，这显然与汽车无关。后来，我跟随一位老板来到Coda汽车公司。你还记得听说过他们吗？我不记得了。他们试图从中国进口一辆汽车并进行电气化改造，但整个项目似乎有些骗局的味道，虽然不完全是骗局。

It was like this This car that was made in China that didn't really meet US crash regulations It required a ton of reengineering that required scaling up this battery joint venture that never quite worked and so The great experience not a good outcome And so I went to Stanford trying to figure out whether there's still a career to be had in cars or do something else

事情是这样的：这辆中国制造的汽车并不符合美国的碰撞标准，所以需要大量的重新设计和工程技术来满足标准，其中还需要扩大这个从未真正成功过的电池合资企业。这是一次并不太好的经历，最终结果也不尽如人意。于是我去了斯坦福大学，试图找一个与汽车相关的职业或者做点其他的事情。

I met Nick there and in between my first and second year actually got my dream job Which is working in McLaren and so I worked in the UK launching their road cars division It turns out that making Xotic sports cars also really hard business It's not like even though you make a ton of gross mortgage on the car. It's like It's actually more like fashion than it is cars Um, and so it's very tough to know what's fashionable and what's not

我在那里遇到了尼克，在我大学第一和第二年之间实现了我的梦想工作，也就是在麦凯伦公司工作。我在英国工作，负责推出他们的公路车部门。事实证明，制造豪华跑车是一个非常艰难的业务。即使你从卖车中赚了很多钱，它也不像汽车那样，更像时尚。所以很难知道什么是时尚的，什么不是。

Um, it's just sort of fell into that trap again And then met Nick and the one thing that we did know consistently throughout throughout all this is hey There's money in the dealership space and so if there is an angle to be attacked Maybe there's an angle from this sort of peer-to-peer market that that we thought could exist for Individuals who wanted to sell their cars and so that's what sort of spawns We started this business called curlipso and how be it going to Depth of what that was like

嗯，我们又陷入了那个陷阱，然后遇到了尼克。在这一切中，我们一直知道的一件事就是：汽车销售市场中有很多钱可赚，因此如果有一个可以攻击的角度，也许从这种点对点市场的角度来看，我们认为个人想要卖掉自己的车辆可能存在一些机会。这就是我们开始这项名为Curlipso的业务的原因，但是深入了解具体情况还需要更多的时间。

Yeah, so your your new company of course is called with clutch and maybe not so new anymore I mean you've been operating you founded several several years ago, but I think it's important to tell the audience I mean you in a way I would say you pioneered a segment of the market Um with again, I'll let you explain what curlipso was but fascinating model and I think there's been several spin-offs of it since but go ahead

嗯，你的新公司当然叫做"clutch"了，也许已经不算那么新了，因为你几年前就创立了这个公司。我认为告诉观众你在某种程度上开创了市场的一个领域很重要。我会让你解释一下curlipso到底是什么，这是一个非常有趣的模型，我认为自那以后已经出现了几个类似的模型，但是你可以先说明一下。

Yeah, it's funny in like 2013 everybody started realizing you might be able to sell use cars online It was a year that like all these Quote go big startups popped up so we had us We had room we had shift and we had carvana All of us actually started from pretty different places of like what the key was And I think even curvana's like what the key was is very different than people think it is And so we started from this place of hey the problem we want to solve is the peer-to-peer market

是的，在大约2013年左右，人们开始意识到可以在线销售二手车，这很有趣。在那一年，很多所谓的“大型初创企业”涌现出来，我们有我们自己的公司，我们有Room、Shift和Carvana。实际上，我们从一开始就有很不同的问题要解决，甚至Carvana认为问题的关键和人们想象的非常不同。因此，我们从这个角度出发，我们要解决的问题是点对点市场。

We think that individuals can more easily sell their cars into this market And if we can sort of cut out middleman expenses Through some sort of tack and I can get into what that was Then we can facilitate these peer-to-peer transactions more easily

我们认为个人可以更容易地将他们的汽车销售到这个市场上。如果我们可以削减中间人的费用，并通过某种方式实现这一点，我可以解释一下这是什么，那么我们可以更轻松地促进这些点对点的交易。

So you mean again peer-to-peer you just mean like a private sale. I sell my car to you. You sell your car to me Yeah exactly

所以你的意思是点对点交易，你只是指像私人销售一样。我把我的车卖给你。你把你的车卖给我，对吗？

The goal of the company was to try and get people who otherwise would have traded in a car To be like you know, it's just as easy to sell it peer-to-peer And so why don't I do that and therefore I'll get more money That was a whole theory behind it

该公司的目标是试图让那些本来会以旧车换新车的人们意识到，以点对点的方式出售车辆同样简单，为什么不这样做，可以赚更多钱。这就是它的整个理论基础。

And the way we did this is we like installed these you know lock boxes and GPS trackers on these cars We would monitor all the test drives and do all the marketing for that individuals car

我们的做法是在这些车辆上安装锁盒和GPS跟踪器，然后对所有试驾进行监控，并为每辆车做营销。

Um, we actually ended up going to a Y Combinator for that experience and We ended up reaching a peak of like 50 or 60 cars. It was an absolute nightmare Like it was it was the worst 50 or 60 cars a month 60 cars sold a bit a month sold a month sold a month and it was let it's literally the worst business you could start like if you told me to do anything else I would literally do anything else at this point if you're like Silt toilet paper. I would glad. I would be like that's a much better business. Let's do it

嗯，我们实际上去了Y Combinator获得那个经验，最终达到了50到60辆汽车的高峰。那是一场绝对的噩梦，卖出来的每月60辆车是可怕的。这是你可以开始的最糟糕的生意，如果你要让我做别的事，我会毫不犹豫地去做，比如卖卫生纸，那将是一个更好的生意。

So what was so difficult right was it you know, plenty of people Buying cell cars every day plenty of dealers and so what specifically made it so difficult about this peer-to-peer model It's the wrong market to select into it's like all the worst things that you can get compounded And so anyone buying like part of the problem is there's no room for you to make money and let me explain why

那么，为什么这个点对点模式很困难呢？毕竟每天有很多人购买电动车，也有很多经销商，是吗？具体说，是什么让这个点对点模式变得如此困难？这是一个错误的市场选择，就像是所有最糟糕的事情都同时发生了。购买电动车的人太多，你没有赚钱的空间，让我解释一下为什么。

And so like if you if you are Captivated by the marketing message of get more for your car That means that you want more money for your car than you could have got it a dealership right? So you already have that expectation of higher transaction value If you're buying in the private market chances are you're trying to get a lower transaction value And so the individuals here are both willing to spend quite a lot of time to make sure that's true And they value their time less than you value your time And so inherently what happened is people buying would would just consume a ton a ton of hours Trying to get this car to be as cheap as possible and the people selling obviously wanted the most money And so in all of these cases you ended up adversarial to both counter parties And no matter what you offered of of value You quote unquote like there were other ways to make money like you know

因此，如果您被“让您的汽车价值更高”这样的营销信息所迷住，这意味着您希望能获得比在经销商处买更多的钱，对吗？因此，您已经对更高的交易价值有了期望。如果您在私人市场购买，您可能正在努力获得更低的交易价值。因此，这里的个人都愿意花费很多时间来确保这是真的，并且他们的时间价值低于您的时间价值。因此，固有的情况是购买者会消耗大量时间，试图尽可能地便宜买到这辆汽车，而卖方显然希望得到最多的钱。在所有这些情况下，您与两个交易方都变得对抗性。无论您提供的价值是什么，就像“您喜欢的”，都有其他赚钱的方法，例如...

You could make money on financing contracts or on selling warranties and things like that But it's pretty hard to insert yourself in there without physically taking possession of a car And that's something we didn't want to do because if we started doing that we're like okay now if we if we go down that road We may as well just be a dealership because then we don't have all these this two-sided Satisfaction problem we haven't self-selected into the wrong market

你可以通过融资合同或销售保修等方式赚钱，但要在不实际取得汽车的情况下介入其中相当困难。这是我们不想做的事情，因为如果我们开始这样做，那么我们就像一个经销商一样，因为我们将面临两面满意问题，我们没有自我选择错误的市场。

And so you kind of end up in nowhere land of Neither side values of service you may provide to the level that makes sense economically And so like we just made very little per car So you go to Carvana right Carvana acquires car lipso yes, and I what I'm really curious about is the transition from going to work

所以你会陷入一个双方都不重视你可能提供的服务的 “无人之地”，经济上讲不怎么合理。所以我们每辆车赚的很少。于是你去了Carvana，Carvana收购了汽车，我真正好奇的是从工作场所过渡过来的情况。

At Carvana and ultimately right like years down the road founding a company That focuses on credit unions right to think that first thing that comes to my mind is okay Chris had some insight While at Carvana something told him hey, this is an alternate opportunity in the market right But let's kind of break it down step by step how you went from Carvana and what that you know transition was like for you

在Carvana工作，并最终创立一家专注于信用合作社的公司，如果我们考虑多年后的情况，我的想法是克里斯在Carvana工作期间获得了某些洞察力。他感觉到市场上会出现另一种机会。但让我们一步一步地分析他是如何从Carvana过渡到现在的情况。

Yeah, there's actually like it's actually a steer step so let's go through the full steer step too So with car lipso we started with this peer-to-peer model that didn't work and we knew it didn't work at the end of why commenter like we Why comment it was like you know do things that don't scale we took it way too literally and didn't do anything that scaled And so

是的，实际上这是一个很重要的步骤，所以让我们通过完整的步骤来讲解。我们从一个点对点的模式，也就是车辆共享的方式开始，但这种方式并不可行。在某个时候，评论者提到我们需要做一些不可扩展的事情，但我们过于字面地理解了这个建议，没有采取任何可扩展的行动。

At the end of it like some of our employees one of our employees still has like PTSD from answering phone calls like you won't answer a phone call I mean So like he's so distraught by what happened to him during this this phase and so At that point we said hey, why don't we actually just try and direct Sale cars from auctions and so we'll cut out this two-sided model will only serve buyers And since these auctions are like price set marketplaces Now we have almost unlimited selections

到最后，我们公司的一些员工因为接电话而患上了类似创伤后应激障碍，比如你不得不接电话。有一位员工在这个阶段发生了什么让他非常痛苦。所以我们当时就提出来，为什么不尝试通过拍卖直接销售汽车，这样我们就可以省去这个双向模式，只服务于买家。由于这些拍卖是按照价格设定的市场，所以我们几乎可以无限选择。

So if somebody says hey, I want x car Then we can simply find x car in the marketplace will we'll figure out effectively how to SEO these aggregators And so we would basically take every car that was in manheimer or desa Cross-reference how it would rank on sites like car gurus and see what existing inventory was there And then choose to advertise a select number of bins to generate a ton of leads That's like the first thing in a half.

如果有人说他想要 x 车，那么我们可以在市场上找到 x 车，然后有效地决定如何在聚合器上进行搜索引擎优化。我们会基本上列出在 Manheimer 或 Desa 上所有的车，并将其与像汽车顾问这样的网站进行排名的交叉引用，看看已有的库存。然后选择广告推广一些挑选出来的车型来产生大量的潜在客户。这是步骤中的第一步半。

Okay, so this this is important right because I get asked all the time people like hey Can can consumers buy from auctions and and I mean this was like 10 years ago, right? And so this is not anything new but I Keep going I mean, I'm just really intrigued like tell us you know bad debts experience You know what worked what didn't go ahead?

好的，这很重要，因为我一直被问到人们问我“消费者可以从拍卖购买吗？”这个问题，我是说这是10年前的事情了，对吧？所以这并不是什么新鲜事，但我还是坚持下去了。我非常感兴趣，告诉我们你的坏账经历，什么起作用了，什么没有起作用？

Yeah, yeah So at the time what happened was all these Nissan Leafs came off lease And Nissan had completely screwed up the residual and so we could we would see that these leaks were transacting In wholesale for like 10 to 13 grand and people's buyouts were like 17 20 grand And so we started listing these leafs being like hey there, you know 13 grand you can get a leaf and we'll make good money at 13 grand And so we put these leafs on or other cars that sort of met these metrics and they would immediately show up top of car gurus rankings And we would generate a ton of phone calls and someone call in super confused being like him coming down to your lot We have to explain we definitely don't have a lot. Please don't come here.

当时的情况是，所有这些日产叶子车都结束了租约，而日产完全搞砸了残值，所以我们可以看到这些汽车批发价格为10到13千美元，人们的赎回价格为17到20千美元。于是我们开始列出这些叶子车，告诉人们说，你可以花13千美元买一辆叶子车，我们可以从中赚到可观的利润。我们把这些车子放在了网上，或者其他那些符合这些度量标准的车子，它们会立即在Car Gurus排名榜上排在前面，我们会收到大量的电话，有些人会打电话过来很疑惑，问我们是否在买卖这些车辆，我们必须解释我们并没有这些车辆，请大家不要来这里。

Here's the deal And a lot of people were freaked out, but if for every you know for every three freaked out people There was one person who was willing to go ahead with it And so sure enough like the first car we sold was this Nissan Leaf to a guy who already had a leaf that was turning in his lease Like I was like in his mid 70s and he's like ask for it. It's worth trying it out shows up super happy that was super easy and so he's just start doing more and more of this And so That model ended up being a lot easier because you don't have this like two-sided audience You need to serve totally impartial about the inventory What we kept getting deeper and deeper into is you're like you still lean all the things that a car dealership has

这就是我们的交易。很多人都被吓坏了，但是如果每三个受到惊吓的人中有一个愿意尝试的人，那么我们就可以继续进行。因此，第一辆我们卖出去的车是一辆Nissan Leaf，卖给了一位已经正在将其租赁的Leaf转让给我们的人。他已经七十多岁了，但他决定试一试。他很高兴，这很容易，于是他开始越来越多地购买。这种模式变得越来越容易，因为我们不需要服务于两个不同的客户群体，对库存完全持中立态度。我们不断深入了解的是，您仍然需要掌握汽车经销商所需的所有知识。

Right, like you still need to do the reconditioning and so like EVs inherently need less reconditioning so starting there was much easier than as we got into more and more complicated cars The thing that sort of where we tapped out is you know like old businesses you think whenever you start It's gonna just completely keep going And what happened was there was a limited audience at the time was like willing to completely buy online Who met the credit profile that we had And so we could reach a point of sort of a hundred to a hundred fifty cars in San Francisco But we could never break through that wall It was like we had a decent You know, it was a it was a decent small dealership that advertised online that could have been profitable within a few markets And that was like yeah, but we were a venture back company

没错，就像你仍然需要进行改装一样，电动汽车本身需要较少的改装，因此从那里开始比随着我们进入越来越复杂的汽车领域更容易。我们达到了瓶颈的事情就是你知道，就像旧的企业，你开始的时候可能会一直保持前进。但发生的事情是，在那个时候，只有有限的受众愿意完全在线购买适合我们的信用档案。因此，我们可能在旧金山达到了100到150辆汽车的数量，但我们永远无法突破这道墙。这就像我们有一个不错的、能够在几个市场上盈利的小型经销店，它在线上做了广告。这就是我们是一家风险投资公司的原因。

But the key here is like you didn't actually own the inventory or it didn't sit on your balance sheet correct Yeah, we got flooring for the inventory and so like our turn time on a car was like seven days and so The flooring Companies all got super confused. They're like hey, you're paying this off way too quickly We're like well the car's gone and they're like And they you know they do these all I don't know if you've been through like a flooring company audit But then they come and they look for all the inventory like where is it? We're like we sold it when we keep telling you guys like this like we already bought it and we already sold it It's it's out of like it's done at this point and they ended up confused in each time we'd have to explain to the new auditor who came around What was happening because also he expected like a dealership lot and we had a tiny warehouse

但关键在于你实际上并没有拥有存货，或者它没有被计入你的资产负债表中，是这样吗？是的，我们为存货获得了融资，因此我们的汽车周转时间为七天。因此，融资公司都感到困惑。他们说，你还清这笔款项得太快了。我们解释说，汽车已经出售了。然后，他们会进行库存审计。我们说我们已经买了，然后立刻卖了，所以这些存货已经处理完了。每次有新审计员过来的时候，我们都要再次解释情况，因为他们通常会预期我们有一个像车行一样的展厅，但我们只有一个小仓库。

How did the auctions feel about you advertising the cars to say you know the consumers and you know manheim did they give you any Flack for that progressively yes and so i mean the reality is it works out great for the auction So it actually isn't beneficial for them and i think in some ways they'd love to do it They just can't up can't end up in this environment

你把车辆广告投放给消费者时，拍卖公司对此有什么感觉？他们对你称自己认识消费者和认识曼海姆有任何反感吗？从一定程度上说，是的，他们开始有反感了。但是事实是这对拍卖公司非常有利。所以，实际上对他们并没有什么好处，我认为在某种程度上，他们很愿意这样做。只是在这种环境下他们不能这样做。

We're actually everybody's doing it and somebody is simultaneously selling because a lot of dealers actually Would sell the same car that they also had at auction and so they would continue to list that car in hopes that someone might You know at the last minute come through and pull through on that car that's not getting sent to wholesale Um, and so we got a few you know angry dealer calls of wise your car listed here and so the things we did

其实现在所有人都在这样做，有些人同时在卖车子，因为很多经销商实际上会同时在拍卖行出售他们也拥有的同一辆车，他们会继续将这辆车列在清单上，希望最后有人能够买下即将被送到批发的车子。因此我们接到一些生气的经销商电话，问为什么他们的车子在我们这里被列出来。为此我们做了一些调整。

The auction company got mad at us saying hey look you can't advertise these explicit vans and so just don't do that And so we ended up doing is Actually creating these synthetic vans that would go on the aggregators and then putting this huge disclaimer In the ads themselves saying hey, this is not the exact car there are there's a car that is exactly of the specification that That you can buy And that that worked. I didn't know you can create synthetic vans you learn something you every day

拍卖公司对我们很生气，说“嘿，你不能宣传这些含蓄的厢式货车，所以不要那么做”。于是我们最终做的是制造这些合成厢式货车，将它们放在聚合器上，然后在广告中加上巨大的免责声明，说“嘿，这不是确切的汽车，有一辆确切规格的汽车可以购买”。这行得通。我不知道你可以创造合成厢式货车，你每天都会学到一些东西。

So tell us about the transition to Carvana Yeah, good point And so we got to a point where we said this business is not going to scale and so the reality is for Carlips So we sort of came to a point where we knew we wanted to sell the business And so we're saying look doesn't scale um We have this asset which was effectively we had built all these tools that scraped the auction sites And that could pull in exact details about each of the vans And so one of the things about consumers buying online is like a lot of our consumers We're buying 30,000 dollar plus luxury cars

请告诉我们有关转向卡瓦纳的情况。 是的，这是个好问题。我们到达了一个点，意识到这个业务不会扩展。对于卡利普斯来说，现实是这样的。我们意识到想要出售业务。我们意识到这个业务不会扩展。我们拥有这个工具，可以从拍卖网站获取所有信息，并且可以获取每个车辆的详细信息。关于在线购车，消费者购买价值30,000美元以上的豪华汽车。

And so they're like hey, I want to you know, I want a seven series and it's got to have rear-heated seats and the massagers in front and the m-sport pack And so you had to be able to get a you know a sales guy off the street to be able to do all this Without actually knowing each and every car in full intimacy And so we developed these like Almost he's like a window sticker like tools that would break apart the window sticker or the options and features for each car on a venn level

于是他们说：“嘿，我想要一个7系，后排座椅要有加热功能，前排要有按摩器，还要有M运动套装。”因此，你必须能够让一个从街上招来的销售员能够做到这一点，而无需对每辆车都有详细了解。因此，我们开发了一些类似于车窗标签的工具，可以将每辆车的选项和功能拆分到Venn图层面上。

And we could do that for like 80% of vans not every not every venn not a venn man or either like Honda's didn't matter um And so Carvana was interested in that ability to do that They're like hey if we could do this then it improves how we merchandise our cars We also sell cars online some of these same issues because often they would end up with you know Describing a car that had a heated seats that didn't actually have it because The guy walking around the car just made a mistake Um and obviously you ended up with a very upset customer when that happens and that was like anchoring feature for them um, and so we ended up talking to Carvana in like really 2017 before their IPO And so we had these conversations of sort of what's the technology we have what would fit into Carvana what makes sense and why and then The transaction eventually went through and sort of may of that year um

我们可以为80%的货车做到这一点，不是每一辆货车都可以，不是每一个货车司机，也不是像本田这样的车型。Carvana很感兴趣这种能力，如果我们能做到这一点，那么它将改进我们推销汽车的方式。我们也在网上销售汽车，遇到了同样的问题，因为有时会出现描述拥有加热座椅的汽车实际上并没有的情况，因为走在车旁的人犯了错误。当出现这种情况时，你最终会得到非常烦恼的客户，这是他们的关键特别功能。因此，我们在2017年就已经与Carvana进行了对话，在他们的IPO之前。我们交流了我们拥有的技术，我们如何适应Carvana，合理性以及原因。最终交易在那年5月完成。

And then me and like it was me and Nick were co-found as a business Nick At first we're like okay, let's just get the business sold and then let's figure out what we're gonna do in the building So we actually had no idea what our role would be in Carvana It was like whatever the role is like if they want us to you know clean the windows Let's just get this thing to the door for three years that's fine um And so we got to deal through the door part of that was Nick was gonna go work in buying cars from consumers um, which he was very half-hearted about at first because we had tried something similar at Carvana and it didn't work that well

然后我和Nick创立了一个公司，最初我们的想法是把这个业务卖出去，然后再看看我们在这个建筑里要做什么。实际上，我们对于在卡尔瓦纳公司要担任的角色一无所知。无论我们的角色是什么，如果他们想让我们擦窗户，让我们把这个产品送到门口三年也无妨。所以我们通过门面完成了交易。其中一部分是Nick要去从消费者那里购买汽车，起初他对此非常半心半意，因为我们之前在卡尔瓦纳公司尝试了类似的方法，但效果不佳。

And that environment Worked phenomenally well at Carvana for different reasons Why is that why did it work so well Carvana? Carvana was spending on like it was a windfall of marketing dollars that they were already spending to sell cars And we were trying to kickstart one marketing message at Carvana So like when we ran a bunch of early experience to buy cars for consumer We would run a bunch of advertising around hey we want to buy your car or we'd contact random people on Craigslist who are really selling and be like Hey, we want to buy your car None of that worked in isolation But Carvana was doing like very broad-based marketing on TV And the message people got was kind of car car

卡尔瓦纳的环境在不同方面的表现都很好。为什么会这样呢？卡尔瓦纳在市场营销方面投入了大量资金，就像市场营销风险已经得到很好的控制一样。我们试图在卡尔瓦纳推动一个市场营销信息，因此当我们提供消费者购车体验时，我们会进行大量广告宣传，比如向Craigslist上的随机人群发送信息，或者说“嘿，我们想买你的车”。但是单独采取这些措施都不起作用。但是卡尔瓦纳在电视广告上进行了大量广告宣传，所传达的信息是关于汽车的。

Uh, and as a result of that there was a natural windfall and people who wanted to sell their car and we're going there anyway And so the problem was different It wasn't finding marketing leads the problem was actually monetizing the funnel And so like the issues Nick had to deal with it Carvana were not generating net new interest or volume and that was the problem we dealt with at Carlypso that we couldn't solve Um, and so it was a natural like byproduct of Being associated with a large scale dealership that you got this inherent volume anyway

嗯，由于这个原因，产生了自然的收益，想要出售他们的汽车的人已经打算去那里了。因此问题不同了，不是寻找市场领先者的问题，而是实际上如何从中获利。就像Nick在Carvana所面临的问题一样，它不是生成新的兴趣或销售量，而是我们在Carlypso所遇到的无法解决的问题。因此，与大规模经销商关联的自然副产品是你已经拥有这种内在的销售量。

Yeah, and I mean Carvana has been tremendously successful in buying from public You know, I think it's debated on the valuations they put on cars throughout different periods Did you guys work on their valuation model? Was that part of your your team? And you know, we're going to put you on the spot over here Yeah, there's actually there's multiple there were two valuation models in the building when I was there And so the one that would the the valuation model for buying cars we could see where it was actually different Then the valuation model for buying through wholesale auction And so I worked very closely with the team that did valuation for buy from auction and I worked Semmy semi closely with a team that was buying direct from consumer But like the triggers were different and the way the inventory mix Was looked at was different and arguably you actually got different cars too Like the cars you got from buy from consumer were arguably older you had a higher condition variance Uh, they tended to be less pricing benchmarks internally.

是的，并且我是说，Carvana在从公众手中购买车辆方面非常成功。我认为他们在不同时期放置车辆估值是有争议的。你们有没有参与他们的估值模型？这是你们团队的一部分吗？我们要把你们放在困境中。实际上，在我还在那里的时候，有两个估值模型。一个是用于购买汽车的估值模型，我们可以看到它实际上是不同的。另一个是用于通过批发拍卖购买的估值模型。因此，我与负责批量购车估值的团队密切合作，并与直接从消费者那里购买的团队半密切地合作。但触发器不同，库存混合的方式也不同，可以说你实际上得到了不同的汽车。从消费者手中购买的汽车往往更老，有更高的条件差异，他们的价格基准内部较低。

So they were more unique skews Like auctions auctions is somewhere were a little easier because you had like Generally anything you bit on you had some Pricing benchmarks from other things that were similar in inventory They tended to be less unique skews and so you couldn't get it that far off and three you always had this Like it was a simultaneous auction So you you could never pay that much more than someone else is paying Because you didn't pay your highest willingness you paid n minus one Like that's the inherent nature of the auction versus you could end up paying your highest willingness and buy from consumer

因此，它们是更独特的偏差。像拍卖一样，拍卖地点更容易一些，因为你对于你竞标的东西有一些定价基准，这些基准是从库存中的其他类似物品中得出的。它们往往是不太独特的偏差，因此你不能让它远离定价基准。同时，它们总是一个同时拍卖。因此，你永远不会比别人付出更多的价格，因为你不会付出你的最高愿意支付价格，而是支付n减1。这是拍卖的本质，与你最终可能支付你最高愿意支付的价格并从消费者那里购买的情况不同。

Explain to me like a third grader. How how did Carvana managed to you know out just out compete the market with their you know relatively high offers throughout the last three four or five years right like just break that down for us very simply Yeah, I mean like Carvana's actually Like the way to think about the business and this was the eye opening part from moving there from Carlips O is At Carlips O we tried to sell to almost all Uh prime credit buyers And they're a terrible audience for online carbine Like they're terrible because they have great alternatives everywhere else And so like if you if you try and sell in recidic class to a prime buyer You're being compared to a recidic p.o. program And then you're like why would you buy from You know randomee versus Mercedes CPO Mercedes has great dealerships and not like bad and not bad operations You know nobody's getting beaten in the backroom as people like to portray the car comes with a warranty from the manufacturer Um, and so like it's it's actually a good option and people know Two things one is they know what other cars they can get They know that they can afford them so there's no question for ability and then be they generally know the financing rate that they should get And so they're not being you there's no there's no opportunity to make a lot of margin On these consumers and then the online model is arguably not better for them You're like okay, here's the trade-offs You can wait for your car You're not going to know the condition with any certainty until it arrives And um, it's not going to have this OEM warranty that you might get from a dealership and so like is that really better Like if if I can walk into a Mercedes D like get my car the same day. I know the rate. I'm gonna get um Like I can walk out with a car and know the condition at the moment. I see it It's really it's really like it's not like you avoid any major step in the process by buying online You still have to do all the same steps. You can't avoid any step of buying Um, and so I think that I'm assuming you're gonna I'm assuming you're gonna contrast this to sub or near prime.

以一个小学三年级的理解方式解释给我，Carvana是如何在过去3-5年内通过相对高的报价击败市场的呢？其实呢，Carvana的商业模式思路是这样的：我们可以将车辆在线上销售给那些信用状况不好的消费者，这些人在寻找好的汽车购买方式时有很多限制，也没有更好的选择。而那些信用状况好的人会选择去经销商购买，他们享有更佳的购买条件和品质保障。在线购买汽车需要等待汽车送到自己手里，也无法保证车辆的具体情况，而且也不会获得制造商的保修。因此，有钱人和信用状况好的人会选择去经销商购车，而在线销售更适合那些信用状况不好的人，他们不得不在价格，质量和选择方面做出妥协。

Yes. Yes, which is a different audience like if you take sub prime Subprime is actually the best audience to serve online Um, and the reason being like think about the experience from the consumer from the standpoint like if you're a sub prime Get simmer you actually have real Uh, what'll call like budget risk So you walk into a dealer you actually don't know what you can afford with the high degree of certainty And so you know roughly the down payment and roughly the payment you can afford but a lot of a lot of times That's contingent on what the finance company will extend to you in credit And so you actually await your answer from the dealer But you still want to buy a car that you went in for And so you may enter a dealership being that I want to walk out of here with this you know, 2015 Chevy Tahoe But when financing terms come across the guy behind the sales desk is gonna convince you that you actually need a 2013 Volkswagen Beetle And you're like, well, because he's only got 50 cars on the lot financing came back awkward You have to go through this embarrassing exercise at which he tries to convey that the Beatles a good Stepping stone car for you and and that like Carvana just kind of made that experience much Much more palatable because you get financing rates on everything and there was enough inventory Where if the Tahoe didn't work out Stepping back from a Tahoe was easier to figure out what you could get

是的。是的，不同的受众群体需要不同的服务，比如如果你考虑次级贷款。其实，次级贷款是在线服务最好的受众群体。这是因为从消费者的角度来看，如果你是次级贷款客户，你实际上面临的是真正的预算风险。当你步入经销商时，实际上你不知道你能承担什么，这是一个非常高的风险。你大致知道你需要的首付和月供，但很多时候这取决于金融公司是否能给你提供信贷。所以你需要等待经销商的答复。但你仍然想要买你需要的车。这时你可能进入经销商，想说“我想离开这里有一辆2015年的雪佛兰探长”。但是当融资条件呈现出来时，销售柜台后面的那个人会说服你说你实际上需要一辆2013年的大众甲壳虫。因为他只有50辆车在车库里，而且融资的回报让人有点尴尬。你不得不经历这样一次尴尬的过程，他试图告诉你甲壳虫是你的一个好的起点车，而且Carvana几乎让那个经历变得更加令人愉悦，因为你可以得到所有的融资，而库存充足，如果探长不好，退回甲壳虫来的容易，你可以更好地找到自己需要的车。

I'm gonna cut you off for saying but how does that translate to paying you know, $20,000 for a 2013 Civic with 110,000 miles? Good question. So, hey, you can make you can you make more money on on higher finance rates, right? So there's only so much you can mark up the spread on a prime buyer So if you have you know, DCU or the biggest credit, you know, one point was offering something like 1.49% interest rates There's only so much money you could mark that up and still remain competitive to finance any car Right, and so So your ability to make more to spread on the loan is very limited on the prime segment Then be the prime segment has a lower attached of products And so like you don't if you could you don't need to buy a warranty Which just means that all it means is that they're Not gonna buy as many warranties and you know aftermarket products as a subprime consumer may correct correct and and so those two things like you may make limited morgid on the front of the car But between financing margin and product margin You can sort of forward calculate what you expect to make on those two elements And you can price the car in such a way that you might discourage prime buyers and incur its subprime buyers to buy that car Um, and so like a prime a prime buyer is looking at price of vehicle and they roughly know the financing rate and if they finance They'll pay what the payment is right a subprime buyer is looking at a payment-based purchase And so they're not even like the price is almost irrelevant because there's so much else that goes in the monthly payment of what matters for that consumer In addition to can they get over the down payment threshold Of do they have enough money to actually Enable the transaction at all and so they could buying dynamics. They're just very different between these two audiences And so there is the ability a to do some price discrimination So you could select into this audience and not that one and then be your ability to mark up these loans Is better on this non prime audience and so where you might make you know two percent on a prime buyer That can be you know six to ten percent on a subprime buyer And you I mean you see that in Carvana's financial statement right like the biggest driver of Of margin for them is being able to build this entire stack of Of If they had to survive on front and margin alone. It's not a business.

我要打断你说的话，但这又如何转化为支付你知道的，110,000英里的2013年Civic价值20,000美元呢？好问题。所以，嘿，你可以在更高的金融利率上赚更多钱，对吧？因此，在优质买家征信中，你只能加标记有限度。所以，如果你有像DCU或最大的贷款机构之类的信用背景，在一些情况下，利率可能会高达1.49％。你只能在这个基础上加上更多的钱款，并仍然保持竞争优势在任何的汽车融资。因此，你在贷款方面获得利润能力非常有限于优质买家方面。而优质买家的产品附加值较低。比如说，你不需要购买额外的保修，这只意味着你不要买太多保修和售后产品，如次贷需求者可能。因此，尽管你在卖车前的利润很有限，但你能够预测贷款和产品的利润，并按照这两个方面里的预期获利将汽车定价，以使优质买家失去兴趣，而次贷买家获得购买车辆的能力。优质买家在寻找车辆价格时会粗略估计贷款利率，如果他们贷款，他们会支付贷款利息。而次贷买家则是以付款周期的方式购买，因此价格几乎无关紧要，因为对他们而言，能够构成每月付款的其他因素更为重要，例如：是否能够超过付款的阈值，是否有足够的资金来支持整个交易等。因此，这两种消费者的购买动态有很大的差异。因此，有能力进行一定程度的价格歧视。你可以选择这个受众，而不是其他领域，您对非优质消费者的贷款标记能力更佳，因此，您可能会从优质买家那里获得2％的收益，而从次贷买家那里可能会获得6%至10%的收益。你可以从Carvana的财务报表中看到这一点。他们的利润最大的驱动因素就是能够构建完整的产品堆栈。如果他们仅靠前端利润便无法维持业务的运转。

Mm-hmm. Yeah, it's The definitely the rates that we're seeing and especially now and it's always been you know The subprime customers always been a payment shopper. You know, they're they're shopping for financing They're not shopping for cars. It's certainly cars important, but it's much less important Correct, and so I think that that that's something that helps people understand right they see like oh Carvana You know quote-a-quote overpaid for my car, but did they really right like let's look at the business It's a vertically in great business. They have it's like five businesses and one. It's like that's right You know, it's like in that sense where you know Amazon is vertically integrated. I guess you could say it's similar But that enables them to you know pay more for that car under certain circumstances and you know, they do have a disproportionately their audience is disproportionately skewed towards subprime and bad credit

嗯，没错，我们现在所看到的是确实的费率，特别是现在。而且，一直以来次级客户都是支付顾客。他们寻找融资而不是寻找汽车。当然汽车很重要，但它相对而言不那么重要。所以我认为这可以帮助人们了解，他们看到卡瓦纳（Carvana）“过高地支付了我的车”，但他们真的是这样吗？让我们看看这个企业。他们从事垂直整合业务，就像是五个业务整合在一起。它就像是垂直整合，就像亚马逊（Amazon）。这让他们在某些情况下能够更多地支付这辆车，而且他们的受众在很大程度上都是次级和坏信用客户。

And so like everything you're saying makes sense now, but here's what I want to understand right so you you have this inside now I'm going back if you know a couple years here you're at Carvana You see that subprime is a lot more lucrative. It just that's the reality of the business And and then you go to credit unions, which is like the peak epitome of like cream of the crop like I have amazing credit Like don't fuck with me. So how does that happen? Yeah

所以，你现在说的所有事情都很有道理，但是我想了解的是，你现在内部有这个看法，但如果我们回过头去看几年前，你在Carvana，看到次级贷款更有利可图，这就是业务的现实。然后你去了信用联盟，这就是顶峰和最佳的象征，就像我拥有惊人的信用一样，不要跟我闹。那么这是怎么发生的呢？

Here's how it happens so like it's it's not all like a the spectrum So it's not like all subprime prime So there's not only two audiences a full spectrum in the audience I think the the insight was hey the financial products end up being the key profit drivers Here and then be one of the other insights was a lot of buyers. They don't think about this too hard And so like whatever the whatever the rate was one reason Carvana could exert control is because people didn't shop around for financing Like Carvana only offered its own financing through their own pages

这是它发生的方式，所以它不是全部的一个光谱。所以它不是全部次级贷款或全部主贷款。观众是一个完整的光谱，不仅有两个听众。我认为洞见是，金融产品最终成为关键的利润驱动因素。另一个洞见是，很多买家并没有仔细考虑这个问题。因此，无论利率是多少，Carvana都可以施加控制，因为人们没有在其他地方寻找融资选项。像Carvana这样，只能通过自己的页面提供自己的融资。

And so you you either kind of went with it or not People were not shopping figuring out what is the true market rate of what my credit should get me across all these other lenders um And so what we said is if we look at the best lenders Right like the cheapest cost of capital is actually credit unions And the reason that's true is why is it yeah, they're not for profits And so the credit the credit union effectively has to return slightly more than a treasury yield on their book of loans And so there there were bank they're like a banking system setup in the early 1900s where they're effectively a cooperative They exist for the benefit of their members, which is anyone who has a loan or deposit with the institution

因此，你要么接受它，要么不接受它。人们并没有在寻找真正的市场利率来决定我的信用在所有其他放贷人中应该得到多少。因此，我们认为，如果我们看看最好的放贷人，比如最便宜的资金成本实际上是信用联盟。原因是什么呢？是因为它们是非营利性组织。因此，信用联盟必须在它们的贷款账本上返还略高于国库收益率的资金。这是从20世纪初就建立起来的银行系统，它受益于其成员（即任何在机构拥有贷款或存款的人）的利益，实际上是一种合作组织。

And so what that means is they effectively run Uh a net zero bank So as if like if you their cost of capital is cheaper is cheaper exactly exactly they're getting they're getting deposits at near for free from consumers They have to return some interest yield, but they don't pay profit on the interest yield And so therefore you're you're roughly net benefited by that Uh not for profit spread Um and credit unions do like 25th a third of used auto loans by the way they're huge

这意味着他们有效地运作了一家净零银行。换句话说，如果他们的资本成本更低，他们将得到消费者近乎免费的存款，虽然他们必须支付一定的利息给消费者，但不必在这些利息上支付利润。因此，你在不为人知的条件下得到了大约的利润。信用社喜欢发放汽车贷款，大约25%到33%的二手车贷款来自信用社。

I'm gonna say yeah, it's like a third of used auto loans And so Like if I'm a consumer in the market today, right and and I'm a dealer and you know We get credit customers that come with credit union checks all the time We also work with credit unions, but If I'm a consumer today or if you know if if a consumer right you're your your mother wants to buy a car She doesn't hate Chris. I want to buy car and I'm going to finance it one way or another like what would you tell her to do?

我觉得这就像是二手车贷款的三分之一。 如果我今天是个消费者，并且我是一个经销商，我们不断地有来自信用社的客户支票。我们也合作与信用社，但是假设今天我是一个消费者，或者你的母亲想要买车，但她不知道如何在一定程度上进行财务规划，你会给她什么建议呢？

Yeah, I mean To yeah the good question There's there's many ways to go about that process like the the old way would be hey go get a pre approval from a credit union Walk into the dealership Pick the car you want show them this you know Use the financing that you have from the credit union and some credit unions will issue checks a lot don't do that because it's a fraud vector

是的，我的意思是，是一个非常好的问题。有很多方法可以处理这个过程，比如旧的方法是去信用社获取预批准，在经销商那里挑选你想要的车辆，展示你拥有的信用社融资，有些信用社会发放支票，但很多不会这样做，因为这会导致欺诈行为。

Still there is another way which is simply if if you demand that the dealer uses a credit union that you already know They can go that route they they have indirect channels already and so you can walk into the dealership and say hey, I want to finance through you know Varidian credit union and Most credit unions who are connected on cuddle or who have dealer track or others can still send loans that way There are of any sort of larger medium size You're smaller you're smaller dealerships may not be connected credit unions. That's arguably not where you're getting your car anyway

还有另一种方法，就是要求经销商使用你已经了解过的信用合作社。他们可以通过间接渠道来实现这一点，所以你可以走进经销商店，说：“嘿，我想通过 Varidian 信用合作社获得融资”。大多数连接在 cuddle 或有 dealer track 等平台的信用合作社仍然可以通过这种方式发送贷款。如果是大型或中型的经销商，都可以实现。而较小的经销商可能没有与信用合作社连接。但对于你购车来说，这可能并不重要。

Um, but like my recommendation will be go into a good dealership That's connected with credit unions already through cuddle or through dealer track Pick one of these credit unions you can see the advertised rates for prime credit And walk out with a great car loan.

嗯，但我的建议是去一家与信用联盟已经通过聚乐部或经销商轨迹联系在一起的好的经销商之一。选择其中一个信用联盟，您可以看到优质信用的宣传利率，并获得一笔优秀的汽车贷款。

So if I do that I can't buy through Carvana you can still buy through Carvana, but it become alluded and so here's here's here's Here's part of the process and so the problem the problem with car financing is that you have this asset that has all these paper Documents associated which is like this we mortgage is the same more is even more antiquated you've been through mortgage But like effectively the vehicle title is this piece of paper that needs a bunch of random signatures on it to establish chain of custody

如果我这样做的话，我就不能通过Carvana购买，但你仍然可以通过Carvana购买，但这变得有点含糊了。以下是购买过程的部分内容。但是汽车融资的问题在于，你拥有这个资产，它有很多相关的纸质文件，类似于我们的抵押贷款，但更加陈旧。你可能已经贷过款，但实际上，车辆所有权和车辆抬头就是需要一堆随意签名的那张纸，用于确定产权链。

The the strange part is the title actually becomes electronic often when it goes to DMV And so there's the electronic leans which will say hey chase actually has ownership in this car Once the paperwork is filed and so if you were to want to buy through Carvana and finance your credit You can still do that, but the process would be different you'd buy through Carvana You'd go with Carvana financing 30 days later you'd refi that loan So you'd go to your local credit and say hey, I want to I have this deal with Carvana I want to switch that loan for this loan And that's something that's very easy to do It's actually easier like the refi process is much easier than the corbine process because of the CLT

奇怪的是当汽车去DMV时，标题通常会变为电子格式。因此，有电子留言，可以显示出Chase实际上拥有这辆车的所有权。一旦文件被提交，如果你想通过Carvana购买并融资，你仍然可以这样做，但是流程会有所不同。你会通过Carvana购买，使用Carvana融资，然后在30天后重新融资。你可以去当地的信用机构，告诉他们你想要转换贷款，从Carvana转换到他们这里的贷款，这是非常容易的。实际上，重新融资的过程比购买的过程更容易，因为有CLT。

What's the what's the bare thesis for credit unions right? I think we know that clearly the both thesis is that I mean it's just cheaper cost of capital and I've been very vocal about it You know we clearly work with credit unions dealers Any normal reputable dealer will work with credit unions I'm seeing that you know the spreads between a credit union and a traditional lender nowadays are like You know, huge repoints. It's very very very significant. Yeah. Yes But like what's the bare thesis here right like why does this not work out or why why does this peak or not scale beyond like you know mega proportions Yeah, I mean, I think there's a couple cases so and I think not not all credit unions are impact the same way

信用联盟的基本论点是什么？我认为我们清楚地知道，这就是更便宜的资本成本，而我一直非常强调这一点。你知道我们清楚地与信用联盟经销商合作，任何正常的有声誉的经销商都会与信用联盟合作。我发现现在信用联盟和传统贷方之间的利差很大，非常非常显著。但是，这里的基本论点是什么，为什么这不能最终扩大到巨大的规模？我认为有几种情况，而且我认为并非所有的信用联盟都会受到同样的影响。

If you look at like there's if you look at banking there's kind of three segments of banks too. There's mega banks There's regional banks and community banks and then there's credit unions I think the sector I'd actually worry most about is that middle sector because they have none of the scale and none of the advantage of the other end um

如果你看看银行业，可以分成三个领域：大型银行、地区银行、社区银行和信用合作社。我认为，值得最担心的领域是中间这个领域，因为他们既没有规模，也没有其他两端的优势。

The the credit unions the credit unions are we most about are the small credit unions were like you It's very hard to get out of this those are the one that you were you worry about them the most you said I worry about small credit unions a lot Yes, and the reason the reason being is because They're not of a scale where they can then get out and like make these investments that a substantial order to like do this modernization to remain on par with the chase or a well as far go

我们最关注的信用合作社是像你们这样的小型信用合作社。很难摆脱这些小信用合作社，这使我们最担心。你说你非常担心小型信用合作社。原因是它们规模不够大，无法进行大量投资，以便进行现代化，保持与大型银行（如JPMorgan Chase或富国银行）平起平坐。

And you need to continue to attract deposits And so you need to attract deposits in order to be able to do lending Lending I think is actually your strongest advantage. I think deposits tend to be a more commodity product Right like if you do checking do you really care where your checking account is it just has to function as a checking account and be easy

你需要继续吸引存款，这样才能够进行放贷。我认为放贷是你们的最大优势。相较而言，存款更像一种普通商品。例如，如果你开设一张支票账户，你真的关心它在哪个银行吗？你只需要它能正常运作并且易于使用就好了。

But at the same time it has to be easy and so to do that you need to make these investments And technology to allow people to use their checking account in easy way And it's just harder to make these investments if you're small scale Right like some of the largest FinTech companies will bend over backwards to work with chase But if you only have you know 4000 members or 4000 potential customers No one's even chasing you as a potential higher of this technology and so it's very hard to serve That segment in a way that makes sense for the technology provider and for the credian

同时，这也必须要容易实现，为此需要进行相关投资，包括技术上，让人们能够更加方便地使用他们的支票账户。如果你是一个小规模的机构，这将会更加困难。例如，一些最大的金融科技公司将不遗余力地与JP摩根大通等大公司合作，但如果你只有4000名会员或潜在客户，没有人会认为你是一个潜在的技术提供方，因此很难为这个细分市场提供有意义的服务，既不利于技术提供方，也不利于客户。

And the credians left a little bit handicap with antiquated tools trying to give people to sign up for their services They've already got limited branch or other reach And so these smaller credians the trend you're seeing is Maybe 20 years ago there were about 10,000 credians Currently there's about 5,000 and so they tend to merge and consolidate Into larger and larger assets The biggest credians tend to think more like banks And so the larger the credian the more it becomes focused is this like this larger efficient high investment institution

克里迪安（Credian）使用落后的工具，试图让人们签约他们的服务，但他们留下了一点残障。他们已经有了有限的分支机构或其他渠道。所以目前你所看到的趋势是，这些小型的克里迪安——约20年前大约有10,000家，现在只剩下大约5,000家——趋向于合并和整合，成为更大的资产。最大的克里迪安倾向于像银行一样思考。因此，克里迪安越大，它就越专注于成为一个高效、高投资的机构。

And so like it's it is in everyone's benefit to get some scale as a credian The the bear case is just like can you do that quickly enough and can you remain competitive with mega banks who seem to be drawing in all these assets

因此，对于每个信贷机构来说，扩大规模都是有利的。然而，风险在于你是否能够快速实现扩张，并与那些正在吸引各种资产的大型银行保持竞争力。

Do you think the traditional lenders like now that rates are you know significantly higher than they were To one two three years ago. Do you think that traditional lenders? You know the capital ones and you know the allies or whoever right publicly traded Have you know lots of leverage when it comes to cost of capital like how do they survive At least in the prime segment versus the credit unions over the next couple of years

你认为传统贷款方对于现在的利率高于一两三年前是否感到不满意？你认为传统贷款方，例如Capital One和Ally等公开交易的贷款机构，在资本成本上具有很大的杠杆作用，他们如何在优质客户群体上与信用社竞争并在接下来的几年中生存下来？

Yeah, I mean, I don't think everyone needs to survive everywhere And so I don't think that needs to be true for them to still have great businesses I think the other thing about lending is lending tends to be highly cyclical Right, and so some of these very well-run business like allies a great example of ally understands us That they're not like in some ways Harvana got a little caught off guard by the cyclicality of just how quickly Lending swung from one side to the other and I mean, it's not like they're the only ones who got caught off guard The fence never raised rates at the rate that it had raised rates, but they Both a made big investments at that time and then be got hit by this which tends to impact profit But allies been through these cycles before and so they understand like Hey, when rates are low things are going to be great when this is environment where things are changing very rapidly It's going to be more confusing

是的，我的意思是，我不认为每个人都需要在任何地方生存，因此我认为这不需要是他们仍然拥有伟大企业的条件。我认为贷款的另一个问题是，贷款往往是高度周期性的。所以一些非常良好管理的企业，比如盟友，很好地理解我们。他们并不是像哈瓦那那样被快速借贷周期的变化所困扰，也并不是唯一一个被快速借贷周期的变故所影响的企业。尤其是当银行没有按照之前惯例的速度提高利率时，这种情况往往会影响利润。但盟友已经经历过这些周期，因此他们了解：嘿，当利率低的时候，情况会很好，当环境快速变化时，会更加混乱。

We may need to get in and out of some of these segments that we've served in certain times well and Like we maintain that flexibility and they've been good at that. That's why they've been around a long time as a business Um, and so like when when rates are near zero People tend to be less sensitive as rates go up. They tend to be more sensitive because each mortal point impacts them more Um, and so like I think creditians will thrive in this environment as people become more rate sensitive Um, and that's like a great time for them and then Allie will as rates go down ally will come back and sort of reserve that prime segment very well

我们可能需要在特定时间内进出我们服务的某些细分市场，并且我们需要保持灵活性，而他们在这方面做得很好。这就是为什么他们作为一个企业存在了很长时间的原因。当利率接近零时，人们往往不太敏感。随着利率的上升，人们往往变得更加敏感，因为每个百分点都会对他们产生更大的影响。因此，我认为信贷机构将在这种环境下蓬勃发展，因为人们变得更加关注利率。这对他们来说是一个很好的时机。当利率下降时，Ally将回归并很好地保留这个主要细分市场。

So I think if they think it's a good natural progression into your current company with clutch um, you know What are you guys doing specifically for credit unions and you know How is that going to help consumers? Can you give us some background on the thesis for the company?

我认为，如果他们认为这是一种很好的自然发展方式，可以预见加入当前的公司，那么你知道，你们具体是在为信用联盟做什么，以及这将如何帮助消费者？你能给我们一些关于该公司论文的背景吗？

Yeah I mean the thesis for the companies at credians are the best lenders and they should be capturing more share a wall out of debt Like that's a thesis in a nutshell and The reason they're not capturing more share of debt is just they've been harder administratively to deal with And so we're trying to facilitate how creditians can execute loans Both for a consumer standpoint and from an internal operations standpoint Like there's both how easy is it to apply and then there's how easy as it to actually book From the people doing the work in the back office Um, and so we're trying to serve both of those like both of those are our customers in some ways

我的意思是，Credians公司的论点是他们是最好的贷款人，应该占据更多的债务份额。这就是论点的要点。而他们不能占据更多的债务份额的原因是行政上更为困难。因此，我们试图帮助Creditians公司执行贷款，无论是从消费者角度还是内部操作角度。这既涉及到申请的便捷程度，也与后勤人员的实际操作难易程度相关。因此，我们试图为这两个方面服务，这些方面在某些方面都是我们的客户。

Tell me in you know in five years, right? You guys have scaled and you've empowered more credit unions Right how did how is that change to carbying experience to car business? Right like what's the impact that you guys have made in five years? Yeah, I mean, I mean, I think there's a couple things a um, I think credit unions should have a much larger market share of auto loans than they currently do And so like it should be people find other areas to compete on the fringes of credit unions and A lot of other lenders shouldn't be nearly as competitive Right like credit unions should be financing a much larger portion of loans in their currently financing a and then be a huge portion that should also be direct like the ability to both uh refinance debt that's not quote-unquote optimal and so as consumers get better credit credit unions should be able to yield and and get that opportunity more easily

请告诉我，你认为未来的五年内，情况会如何？您们已经扩大规模，赋予了更多信用联盟的权力。那么这对购车经验和车辆业务有何影响？您们在五年内取得了什么成就？我认为有几个方面值得一提。首先，信用联盟应该占据更大的汽车贷款市场份额，目前的情况并不如此。其次，其他许多贷款人在信用联盟边缘寻找竞争机会时应该没有那么有竞争力。信用联盟应该融资比当前融资更大的贷款，并且直接面向那些非“最优”债务的再融资需求，随着消费者的信用逐步改善，信用联盟应该更容易获得这样的机遇。

So if you were if you were an ally customer, but now you've made you know, 15 payments on time We should be able to refy that loan and discover that loan very easily if you're a credit you remember and that should be a compelling reason to be a credit You remember is that there's this there's this sort of active watching out for you for all your debt portfolio

如果你曾经是盟友客户，但现在你已经按时付款了15次，我们应该能够很容易地给你重新融资或发现融资的贷款，如果你是个有信用的记忆者，那就更有说服力了。成为信用记忆者的一个具有吸引力的原因是，我们可以为你所有的债务组合提供主动的监控，对你进行保护和帮助。

I think it's not just cars though, too. I think the other manifestation is even if you look at a platform like credit karma Like you won't see a you won't see a credit union on credit karma Which is like super puzzling because yeah, why why can't I connect to it like they cannot connect to credit karma They don't have APIs. There's no way to connect to the balance sheet of a credit unit And so like that technology infrastructure still needs to be built out um, and yet often like if you look at some of these lenders All they do is resell portfolios to credit unions And so there's many lenders who will literally aggregate traffic from karma Repackage that and resell that debt to credit unions And that's like the the strangest sort of middleman intermediary that you could have where if you said hey If the credit unit can simply direct connect to these consumers and connect to the largest sort of Places that consumers get financing then we should be able to grow the balance sheet of Of credit union lending across the board is if you're looking for a person loan and you're near prime or prime That should be a credit union loan if you're looking for an auto loan and any direct origination channel That should be a credit union loan

我认为这不仅仅是汽车问题。如果你看一下像信用卡王这样的平台，你也会发现没有信用联合社。这非常令人困惑，因为为什么我不能与之相连？他们不能连接信用卡王，因为他们没有API。没有一种方式可以连接到信用联合社的资产负债表。因此，这种技术基础设施仍然需要建立。然而，如果你看一下某些放贷人，他们唯一所做的就是将各种组合转售给信用联合社。有很多放贷人实际上会聚合从信用卡王获取的流量，重新包装并将这些债务转售给信用联合社。这是一种奇怪的中间人，如果你说“如果信用联合社可以直接连接这些消费者并连接到消费者获取融资的最大位置，我们就应该能够在整个信用联合社放贷的负债表上实现增长，就像如果你寻求个人贷款并在近期或点数档位接近，则应该贷给信用联合社；如果你寻求汽车贷款并以任何直接开源渠道，那就应该是信用联合社的贷款。

But does that dry up? I mean do they have enough funds in capital to fund the I mean these trillion dollars of loans That we're putting out there. I mean what what is that much point of maturity I'm sure some investors have asked you this at some point because that's the first thing that comes to mind Okay, so there's this large addressable market, but you know how much capital do these credit unions really have Yeah, I mean the good news is it varies hugely by credit union Right so like some credit unions hit lending caps and have done so others still have plenty of drive powder Um, you're always playing as a lender you're always playing this two-sided game, which is like I need to get deposits Uh in order to do lending and the way you get deposits is Two ways either a you like provide great banking services that people can trust And I think credit unions have a lot of growth strategy there as well Or be that you can also pay high rates which are things like you know CD accounts and things like that and they often pay above market and those accounts as well because They can effectively anything you're making from your lending book You can effectively distribute a portion of that to those high yield CDs too

那么这些款项会被用完吗？我的意思是，它们有足够的资本来支持我们提供的万亿美元贷款吗？这是一些投资者可能会问到的，因为这是他们首先会想到的事情。好吧，市场很大，但你知道这些信用合作社实际上有多少资本吗？是的，我是说这个好消息是它因信用合作社而异。有些信用合作社已经达到了贷款上限，而有些信用合作社还有很多资本。作为借方，你总是在玩这个两面性的游戏，那就是我需要获得存款来进行贷款。你获得存款的方式有两种：一种是提供可信赖的优秀银行服务。我认为信用合作社在此方面有很多增长策略。另一种是你可以支付高利率，例如定期存款账户等，它们通常会支付高于市场的利率，因为它们可以从你的贷款账本中有效地分配一部分利润给那些高收益的定期存款账户。

And so they do have way they have to play a balancing game of hey, I want to grow my lending book But I also need to figure out how to grow deposits as well And I think the more success they can have And marketing as a whole the more confident. They'll be growing both ends of this book So if you look at a lot of credit unions today, they're a little bit gun shy on marketing And the reason being is because they don't have great digital distribution paths So if you attract a consumer like some of our credit unions you can't even open accounts digitally So if you were to market for digital loans You may say hey, I want to go out and I want to find somebody who needs a personal loan. Let's say I can get their loan application approved But they may still need to come physically into a branch In order to finalize the loan and deposit account opening And so like they're just a little bit and because of that they're paying a lot more marketing than what you imagine Somebody like upstart might pay because you can finalize everything through upstart You can't do that with a credit unions so they have to find five times as many consumers

因此，他们必须玩一个平衡游戏，他们想要增加贷款业务，但同时也需要找到增加存款的方式。我认为，他们能够在市场营销方面取得更多成功，就会更加自信地增加贷款和存款。所以，如果你看看今天的许多信用合作社，他们对市场营销有些害怕，原因是他们没有很好的数字分销路径。因此，如果你像我们的一些信用合作社一样吸引了一个消费者，你甚至无法通过数字方式进行账户开立。所以，如果你想要市场推广数码贷款，你可能会说，“嘿，我想要找到一个需要个人贷款的人”，我可以获得他们的贷款申请批准，但他们仍需要亲自到分行去办理贷款和开立存款账户。因此，他们的市场营销要比像Upstart这样的公司支付更多的费用，因为你可以通过Upstart完成所有的东西，而在信用合作社则不能这样做，因此他们必须找到五倍于Upstart的消费者。

Um, and so the more comfortable they get with marketing the more The returns from all of these activities are compounding But it all goes back to like do you have an experience? It's competitive With the the best other finance companies out there and if you can be a parody With any with uh, you know with it's the same experience as a chaser wells forgo or some of these other fintechs Then all of a sudden now you can be equivalent in marketing But now you've got the rates right so you're you're a better financial product at the same cost of marketing You should win nine out of ten times in any battle

嗯，所以越是熟悉营销，回报就会更多，所有这些活动的回报都是累积的。但最关键的是，你是否有经验？这是竞争的关键。在所有最优秀的金融公司中你一定要能够与之匹敌。如果你能够与JP摩根大通或者其他一些金融科技公司提供同样的经验，那么你就能在营销上与他们一战。再加上你有更好的利率，就可以以同样的营销成本提供更好的金融产品。在任何比拼中，你都有九成的胜算。

Who's the ultimate beneficiary here right like do you think it's consumers or do you think it's dealers because they can put more cars in the road Or I mean do you think it's everyone really because look the way I see it is in an environment where money's cheap And you know, it's like sloshing around everywhere right like just companies are not efficient And it feels to me like now where you know things have gotten a lot more expensive lending's expensive If people are starting to turn over every stone and they're looking for ways To operate more efficiently and to increase their conversion right like I mean I can tell you that our conversion uh in the sub in ear prime segments from call it like lead to sale Has just consistently dropped since January and it's not driven by Um anything necessarily in store, but it's it's the lending the lending has gotten tough and it's tightened up And we just cannot convert that segment of the market right and it puts us in a very tricky situation because you're missing volume targets You have the customers coming in they want to buy the cars Um, and of course I'm referring to you know, this is not prime segment which credit unions typically work with but I wonder like do you think this is a ultimately just a net benefit for the entire industry and you know You'll see we'll start to see uh bigger companies say like carmax and carvana maybe Show some more innovation on that realm Or do you think that this is more of it doesn't really gain getting get into the mainstream as much And it stays more behind the scenes and you know you work to digitize them But we don't see this more in the mainstream dealership side

这里的最终受益者是谁？你认为是消费者还是经销商，因为他们可以在道路上放更多汽车。或者说，你认为是每个人都受益，因为在资金便宜、到处都是的环境下，公司效率不高。我觉得现在的情况更贵，贷款利率很高，人们开始翻遍每一个角落，寻找更有效的运营方式和提高转化率的方法。我可以告诉你，自一月份以来，我们在次级和优质客户领域的转化率从线索到销售一直在稳步下降，这不是因为店内的任何特定因素，而是贷款利率收紧了。我们无法转化这个市场领域的客户，这使我们陷入了非常棘手的境地，因为我们错过了销售目标。顾客来买车，但我们却无法卖出。当然，我指的是这不是信用社通常处理的优质客户，但我想知道，你认为这对整个行业来说是一项最终的净利益吗？我们是否会看到像carmax和carvana这样的更大公司在这个领域展示更多的创新？或者你认为这不会进入主流市场，而更多停留在幕后，你要努力数字化它们，但我们不在主流车店这边看到它？

Yeah, I think that's a good question I think it's the very least like the one benefit you'll have is consumers right like consumers paying lower rates For ostensibly this like I don't think they actually care that much about their financial product right like it's not like if I get an ally or a Uh, you know chase loan. I'm not like I love I love the chase brand. This is such a I'm proud to talk about the brand of my loan I don't think it's like a brand entity. I think it's it's a more commoditized product And so I think from a loan perspective the consumer is going to benefit I think where the brand may come in is in the other suite of services institution can provide and that's where that's where creditians When and that's arguably work dealerships can win as well And so what I mean by that is like if creditians get more comfortable doing more lending Like you often see that they don't serve this near prime segment even though they could And so creditians can lend up to 18% like that's typical user recaps for credit you you almost never see an 18% loan Right like you'll almost never see that and it's because a lot of them just don't feel comfortable lending that segment. Yeah But there there is a way as they get more technologically advanced as they get more comfortable with um Actually orchestrating a booking the loan These loans tend to be harder to book because you tend to need more steps and more verifications And so it is you can sort of enable that you can serve a broader segment I think that's where that's where actually dealerships will benefit Which is if creditians can get more comfortable moving Down the credit spectrum that means that dealerships are more easily able to sell more cars Through this credit you and channel And that works out well for both parties

是的，我认为这是一个好问题。我认为最起码你会得到一个好处，那就是消费者会享受更低的利率。这可能并不是因为他们真的关心他们的金融产品，而是因为它是一个更具普遍性的产品。因此，从贷款角度来看，消费者会受益。我认为品牌可能会在其他机构能够提供的套房服务中发挥作用，这就是信用会员协会利益所在的地方，同样也是汽车经销商能够获得利益的地方。如果信用会员协会变得更舒适从事更多的贷款业务，那么汽车经销商就更容易通过信用会员协会的信贷渠道销售更多的汽车。这对双方来说都是一个好的结果。

All right, so there you have it folks go buy from a credit union That's that's all you need to know from today. No other takeaways. Bye. Bye. I'm just kidding Um, I mean Chris. This has been awesome like just your wealth of knowledge and you've had a lot of experience And I've really enjoyed it where can people learn more about with clutch your work, you know anything Yeah, I mean you can go to with clutch.com to learn about our company What I would say though if if you're a consumer the best way is to actually go Like you can experience our same platform through any one of our sort of 60 partner creditians And if you go to with clutch you can see who this partner creditians are we work with some amazing partners Who are actually doing like we do the technology but they do the real hard work and they're the ones who The other ones who are offering the great consumer service We're the ones who are enabling that service And so look at any one of those 60 partner creditians. They're absolutely wonderful institutions And if you want to find a way to interact with the creditian, that's a great starting point

好的，这就是今天的全部内容，大家可以去信用合作社购买。没有其他要点了。再见。再见。只是开玩笑，我是说克里斯。这真是太棒了，您有丰富的知识和丰富的经验，我真的很享受这次交流。如果人们想要了解更多关于With Clutch的工作，该去哪里呢？您知道什么？是的，您可以访问withclutch.com了解我们公司的信息。但是，如果您是一位消费者，最好的方法是通过我们大约60个合作信用合作社中的任何一个来体验我们的平台。如果您访问with clutch，您可以查看这些合作信用合作社是谁。我们与一些出色的合作伙伴合作，他们实际上从事真正艰苦的工作，他们是提供卓越的消费者服务的人。我们是使其服务成为可能的人。因此，请查看这60个合作信用合作社中的任何一个。它们是绝对出色的机构，如果您想找到与信用合作社互动的方法，那么这是一个很好的起点。

Before we go to the last question. I want to do a quick 180 And ask you a juicy question This Carvano survive where's Carvano in five to ten years? Good question. Yeah I mean, I think they survive and I'll know that they survive in the same way they exist today like The if you look at Carvano's origin like the one origin was hey We'll have the centralized pool of inventory and if you just just take that to extreme Right, if you take the two extreme you're like okay We have one big distribution center in Kansas where we house 100,000 cars and just distribute those across the country

在我们进入最后一个问题之前，我想快速地反转方向，问你一个有趣的问题。那就是，Carvano能否在未来五到十年内存活下来呢？这是个好问题。我觉得他们能够存活，并且能以今天的方式继续存在。如果你看看Carvano的起源，它的一个起源是建立一个集中式的库存池。如果你将这个想法推到极致，你会发现，我们可以在堪萨斯州建立一个大的配送中心，储存10万辆汽车，并将它们分布到全国各地。

I think over time what you've seen is that like this model converges to a less logistics heavy dealership And so like the things that Carvano has proven or can you sell cars online? Is there a segment of the population that this is good for? The things that they're behind on the proof points for Are is this economically viable and sort of like all weather conditions And I think the old the old weather part is not yet flushed out I think the debt they've taken on is arguably like the biggest new surround their neck right now Which is they just have massive interest payments Could they if they didn't have these massive interest payments and they'd finance it through equity would it be easier to get this pathway out? Yeah, and like if they converge eventually to a more carmax like model but more online Does that seem like that's a viable path? I think both those are true. There's like restructuring that needs to happen between now and then Uh in order to make that happen, but I think they've they've proven too much to go away entirely And so there's certainly someone that will Like I think they can navigate a way out of it. I just think this like some ugly roads they need to cross between now and then

我认为随着时间的推移，你所看到的是像这种模型趋向于一个更少依赖于物流的经销商。因此，像Carvano已经证明或者说你能在线销售汽车吗？这对某些群体有好处吗？他们所落后的证明点是这是经济可行的，且能适应各种天气条件。我认为后者的部分尚未完全显现出来，他们负债累累也是目前最大的一个顾虑，因为他们面临巨大的利息支出。如果他们没有这些巨额的利息支出，而是通过股权融资，那么是否更容易实现这条道路呢？是的，如果他们最终趋向于更像是卡马克斯（Carmax）这种在线模型但更多的汽车销售，那是否看起来是一条可行的道路呢？我认为这两种情况都是成立的，但现在和未来之间需要进行重组才能做到这一点，但我认为他们已经证明了太多，不能完全退出。因此，他们肯定有办法脱困。只是在此之前，他们需要跨越一些丑陋的道路。

But somebody asked me the other day like would you want to run Carvano as a business? For sure not like I it's so operation intensive. I mean We're gonna believe that part out Fair All right, well Chris last question.

有人问我，“你想把Carvano当作一家企业经营吗？” 当然不想，这需要太高的运营成本。我的意思是，我们不应该考虑这一方面。好了，Chris最后一个问题。

I'm curious what have you changed your mind on in the last five years What have I changed my mind on the last five years? I mean I think Carvano like I got to give you some insight into my mindset at the beginning versus the end too because when I went to Carvano A lot of it was just to see the end of the Carlips of story Like we went thinking this business will never ever ever work Um, and actually they proved a lot more than we then we felt possible like they opened my eyes up This like subprime and non prime segment and how they buy cars which is very different than the segment we dealt with And so completely changed my mind on how to think about that area.

我很好奇，过去五年你改变了哪些想法？在过去的五年里，我改变了哪些想法？我的意思是，我认为卡尔瓦诺， 我必须给你一些见解，让你了解我在开始和结束时的心态，因为当我去卡尔瓦诺时，很多事情只是为了看到卡利普斯的结局。我们以为这个生意永远都不会成功。但是事实证明他们比我们想象的要强得多，他们开了我的眼，让我了解到了次贷和非次贷的市场并且了解了他们如何购买汽车，这与我们所处理的市场非常不同，所以我的想法完全改变了。

I think the other thing too is like Learning through 2021 and 2020 like uh Used to somewhat believe in this like rational market theory and obviously it's not true at all um because people like The story of Carvano has been the same for the past Like you could see everything I have my friend. I see it every day If you could see you could see everything that's happening and yet the swing between What they were and what they are like neither neither of these endpoints are true. It's somewhere in between but like um People just get carried away with exuberance all the time

我认为另一件事是，通过2021年和2020年的学习，我有点相信理性市场理论，但显然这完全不是真实的，因为像Carvano的故事一直都是这样，你可以看到一切，我也是每天都看到，但是它们之间的波动并不真实，实际上在两者之间，但是人们总是被狂热所带着。

Do it I love it. I'm rooting for you guys. You're working on some awesome stuff I really you know, I really appreciate it and this has been great. So thanks for coming on Chris and I'm sure I'm sure we'll talk again soon and you know, I'm just excited to see your progress with clutch of course Thanks for thanks for having me on awesome.

做吧，我喜欢它。我支持你们。你们正在做一些超棒的东西，我真的很感激，这次交流非常棒。所以谢谢你来参加Chris，我相信我们很快又会联系，当然，我也很期待看到Clutch的进展。谢谢你邀请我参与这次非常棒的活动。