EV lifespan secrets, Tesla’s impact on dealerships, Investments in the EV space | Scott Case
发布时间 2023-04-28 09:00:00 来源
摘要
In this episode, I'm speaking with Scott Case, co-founder and CEO of Recurrent.
(00:00) Intro
(00:56) EV battery reports? Recurrent's story
(02:37) What happens when your EV's warranty expires
(06:15) The truth behind EV battery range
(08:52) Scott's take on EV % of market share by 2030
(11:20) How changing Tesla prices are impacting dealerships
(16:06) The Recurrent Flywheel
(20:45) When does an EV lose most of its value?
(24:01) Investment opportunities in the EV space
(31:48) Operational changes for dealerships
(33:54) The bear case for EV adoption
(43:57) Wrapping up
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
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GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
Because it's like you had this train of thought and I'm like I cannot stop him now and if I turn off the camera to go pick the Wallet from a tooth, he's gonna lose his train of thought. You absolutely have to leave this in.
因为这就像你有了这个思维的火车，而我不能阻止他，如果我关掉镜头去从牙里拿钱包，他会丢掉他的思路。你绝对要留下这个。
This is amazing. What's up everyone? This is car dealership guy. You're listening to the car dealership guy podcast, which is my effort to give you access to the most unbiased and transparent insights into the car market.
这太不可思议了！大家好，我是汽车经销商。你们正在收听我的汽车经销商播客，这是我为了让你们获得最中立和透明的汽车市场见解所做出的努力。
Let's get into today's episode. Today I've Scott Case on the pod, founder and CEO of Recurrent. Recurrent's Adventure Back startup that's working to grow EV adoption by creating health reports for electric cars. In this conversation we spoke about the truth behind EV battery ranges, how changing Tesla prices are impacting dealerships, investment opportunities in the EV space, Scott's bare case for EV adoption and much more. Here's my conversation with Scott Case.
让我们开始今天的节目吧。今天的节目中，我邀请到了Recurrent的创始人兼CEO Scott Case，他的初创公司Adventure Back正在通过为电动汽车创建健康报告来推动电动汽车的普及。在这次对话中，我们谈到了电动汽车电池续航距离背后的真相、特斯拉价格变动对经销商的影响、电动汽车领域的投资机会、Scott支持电动汽车普及的理由等等。接下来，请听我的与Scott Case的对话。
All views of car dealership guy and guests on this podcast are solely their opinions. None of the views expressed should be treated as financial advice. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
本播客中汽车经销商和嘉宾的所有观点只代表他们的个人意见。不应将任何表达的观点视为财务建议。本播客仅供信息目的。
All right Scott, let's get this going. So you wake up one day, you decide that people need EV battery reports. What does this even mean? Explain to us in very simple terms what you're working on nowadays.
好的，斯科特，让我们开始吧。所以有一天你醒来，决定人们需要电动车电池报告。这到底是什么意思？请用非常简单的语言向我们解释一下你现在正在做什么。
好的，我现在正在致力于制作电动车电池报告，以便消费者可以更好地了解他们的电动车电池如何工作和表现。这些报告将包括一系列测试数据，例如电池寿命、充电速度、充电效率和更多有关电池性能的信息。我的目标是提供准确且易于理解的信息，帮助人们做出更明智的购买和使用决策。
All right, so Recurrent is basically a shopper. You could think of it as like a service for an EV shopper first and foremost and that's we realized when we started the company three years ago that people were asking fundamentally different questions. When they went to buy a used EV then they ever did for use combustion engine car. And it's sort of informed by like everybody that had a series of iPhones and they know the battery wears down and so they just they're trained to ask that question. They're like, oh an EV is a giant battery with wheels on it. So I'm going to start asking questions when it comes to buying one of those used.
好的，Recurrent实际上是一种购物者。您可以把它看作是一项面向EV购物者的服务，这是我们三年前创立公司时认识到的基本事实，人们在购买二手EV时提出的问题与购买用燃油发动机汽车时不同。这受到了拥有一系列iPhone的每个人的影响，他们知道电池会磨损，因此他们会问这个问题。他们说：“哦，EV就是一个带有轮子的巨大电池，所以当购买二手EV的时候，我将开始提出问题。”
And so like what we do for at the sort of fundamental level is like help the buyer of a used EV understand what they're getting and that in the battery like how far is it going to take them? How was that change in if for weather conditions and how will that change over their over the life of the vehicle as they own it?
因此，我们基本上的工作是帮助买家了解二手电动汽车的情况，特别是电池的寿命会带来多大的里程距离。我们还会告诉他们，在不同的天气条件下，电池的使用寿命会发生变化，而这些变化会在使用车辆的整个寿命中得到体现。
So not to oversimplify this but are we talking like a form of car facts for EV batteries? Is that how I should think about this?
那么，不太简单地说，我们是在谈论一种用于电动汽车电池的汽车事实表吗？我应该这样理解吗？
I mean, so I would not describe our company as car facts. I think car facts as lawyers would probably have an issue with that. But I think like in terms of I would say that this is a the battery state is is probably the most important thing about these cars. It's by far the biggest cost item and it's literally a black box when it comes to buying used EV. So yeah, so so basically this that's the function we're serving.
我的意思是，我不会把我们的公司描述成汽车事实。我认为像律师那样的汽车事实可能会对此有问题。但从我个人的看法来看，我认为电池状态可能是这些汽车中最重要的事情。它的成本是最高的，并且在购买二手电动汽车时，电池状态就像一个黑匣子一样。所以基本上这就是我们目前所服务的功能。
Look, I'm a dealer, right? And I think one of the things I think about is what does that price elasticity look like for EVs? Right? So let me explain this specifically. Correct me from wrong. The Tesla battery EV warranty is 10 years. The battery warranty is 10 years. Depends on the model. Most of them are eight to 10 years, 100,000, some of them are much to 120,000 miles on the warranty. Yeah. So how are you predicting those valuations of cars?
看，我是一名经销商，对吧？我想的一个问题就是EV的价格弹性看起来如何？我来具体解释一下。纠正我如果我错了。特斯拉电池EV的保修期为10年。电池保修期为10年。根据型号而定。大多数是8至10年，100,000英里，其中一些为120,000英里的保修期。是啊。那么你如何预测这些汽车的估值呢？
Right? If I buy a Tesla, I'll just say, right? And I get to 10 years with that car. What happens to the value of my car when that warranty just eclipses? Prices are all time highs, interest rates are all time highs. I mean, we're everyone is becoming more efficient and they're being more thoughtful about their purchases, right? We're no longer in this monopoly money era. So how should consumers think about that when their warranty eclipses? And how do you play into that?
对吧？如果我买了特斯拉，我只需要说一声，对吧？然后我能和那辆车相处 10 年。但是，当那个保修期过去时，我的车价值会发生什么变化呢？现在价格和利率都创历史新高。我是说，我们每个人都变得更有效率了，我们更加深思熟虑地购买商品，对吧？我们不再处于垄断货币的时代。那么，当消费者的保修期结束时，他们应该如何考虑呢？你又如何介入其中？
Yeah. So first of all, I'll say a couple of things. One is there's not that many of these cars on the road that actually have expired warranties. Like the, you know, the entire EV industry basically has been the last like 10 years, really like at volume five years. So there's a lot of unknown territory out there. Most of what we're doing is not like, oh, is this car going to just straight up die? You know, it's three, four, five years in. How much battery is left? And therefore, like what utility are you going to get out of the car? You know, for the next three years.
首先，我想说我们讨论的车辆并不多有过期保修。就像整个电动汽车行业，在过去的十年中真正大量生产的时间只有五年左右，因此还有很多未知领域。我们大部分所做的并不是为了查看这辆车是否会直接失灵，而是看它已经使用了三、四或五年后，剩下多少电池容量，以及它还能为您提供多长时间的实用性。
So let me explain what I mean by that. Like a car with an original EPA range, which is wrong, by the way, right on day one for a bunch of reasons, but a car within it with an originally. Why is it wrong? Why is it so?
让我解释一下我的意思。就像一辆原装EPA可行驶里程错误的汽车，在第一天就因为许多原因而出错了，但其中一辆原装车辆。为什么这是错误的？为什么会这样？
So, so oh boy, we want to go on this sidebar. I want to go. I want to go. Yeah, doesn't account for weather variance. So like there's no heating tests. So the cars with heat pumps do way better in winter than cars with resistive heat.
嗯，我们想进行这个侧边栏。我想去。我想去。但是，这并不考虑天气的变化。因此，没有加热测试。因此，配有热泵的汽车在冬季的表现比配有电阻式加热的汽车好得多。
And so like the difference between, you know, losing 40% of your range in the winter versus 10% like not at all apparent from from from EPA numbers. It's like kind of thing number one.
就像在冬天失去40%的行驶范围与几乎没有失去的10%之间的区别一样，并没有从美国环境保护署的数据中表现得很显著。这就是关键点之一。
Thing number two is that manufacturers can just sort of put adjustments on to the EPA range number based on kind of how are they feel?
第二件事是制造商可以根据他们的感受，对EPA范围数字进行调整。简言之，制造商可以随意对数字进行调整。
That's literally how the how the test works. And so all the time, I mean, there's like a bunch of material and consumer reports and Edmonds that have done real world tests that like most of the time, testless don't get their EPA range or even on day one versus most other EVs do actually and exceed it.
这就是测试的字面含义。因此，总的来说，就像一堆材料、消费者报告和Edmonds进行现实世界测试一样，大多数情况下，电动车的测试范围并不达到其EPA的范围，即使是在第一天，而大多数其他电动车实际上都超过了这个范围。
So, you know, in real world conditions, that's backed up in our data. And then, you know, that once the car is ages and the battery begins to lose capacity, which is a natural thing that happens to all lithium ion batteries, then just like the chemistry and the back size, everything is different about the car versus the iPhone but like you cannot violate the laws of physics.
因此，你知道，在现实世界条件下，这一点在我们的数据中得到了支持。然后，你知道，一旦汽车老化并且电池开始失去容量，这是所有锂离子电池都会出现的自然现象，就像汽车和iPhone的化学成分和背面大小不同，但是你无法违反物理定律。
Like there's still lithium ion batteries that do wear down the over time. Okay, so how wrong are these ranges? If they're saying, you know, the range is, you know, 100 miles, which I'm just making up, I know it's more than that. But like how how wrong are these ranges?
就像锂离子电池一样，随着时间的推移，它们确实会逐渐损耗。好吧，这些行驶里程数有多不准确？如果它们说，你知道，这种车的续航里程是100英里，我只是举例而已，我知道实际上它的续航里程更长。但是，这些续航里程有多不准确？
Okay, so, so let's just let's take new cars, right? So like this is just car on day one EPA range of 100 miles. We could you could have in the very best of conditions if you drive it like carefully in warm weather, you could get 140 miles. You wouldn't be crazy. You on the opposite side of that, you could with a car with resistive heat, meaning like the traditional kind of heating system.
好的，那就让我们以新车为例吧。比如，这辆车在第一天的EPA行驶里程是100英里。如果您在温暖的天气下小心驾驶，那么您可以获得140英里的行驶范围，这并不是什么不可思议的事情。相反，如果您的车只配备了传统的电阻加热系统，那么您的行驶里程将会更低。
In the dead of winter, you might get 60 miles. So as your max range, like that's that's a big difference just based on weather and the EPA test does not take in an account.
在寒冷的冬季，你可能只能行驶60英里。因此，你的最大行程就是如此，这取决于天气条件，而EPA测试并没有考虑到这一点。
Okay, so let's take the opposite side of this. Let's just talk about ice, right? And a regular gas car, like that range can be perfect either. How wrong is the range or is the publicized range on a just internal combustion vehicle? Do you have any idea?
好的，我们来讨论一下相反的观点。我们仅谈论冰，对吧？和一辆普通的汽油车相比，它的续航里程也可能是完美的。内燃机车辆的公布续航里程有多大的误差呢？你有什么想法？
（大意：作者提出了另一种观点，想讨论内燃机车辆的续航里程误差问题。想了解读者对此是否有想法）
Yes, so that's an interesting question. So the there are as you know, like when you use the AC or when you, you know, it's probably less noticeable in the winter when you use the heat in a combustion engine car, it's efficiencies reduce somewhat.
是的，这是一个有意思的问题。你知道，当你使用空调或者在燃油车里使用暖气时，燃油的效率会略微降低。在冬季使用暖气时，这种情况可能会不那么明显。
I think it's particularly noticeable with AC in the summer. The I guess the problem, but also, you know, kind of it's eliminated, eliminated out of lemon situation is internal combustion engine vehicles are so inefficient with their ability to turn energy into forward motion.
我认为在夏季打开空调时，这一点尤其明显。我的意思是，问题显而易见，但同时也可以通过消除柠檬式情况来解决。内燃机车辆非常低效，无法将能量转化为前进运动。
They just create a lot of waste heat. And so over the over the decades, engineers have figured out how to turn that waste heat into essentially almost free heat for the cabin. Contrast that with that's why that's why it dries your skin when you turn on the heat in the car. Yeah, yeah, I guess that's right. Yeah.
它们只是产生很多废热。因此在过去几十年中，工程师们已经想出了如何将废热转化为实质上几乎免费的车舱热量。相比之下，这就是为什么打开汽车的加热器会使你的皮肤变干的原因。是的，是的，我想你说得对。
Now contrast that with electric vehicles that are a something like I think it's like the number is 96% of energy from a battery is translated into forward propulsion. So they're very, very efficient. There's almost no waste heat. And so when you turn the heat on, you have to just straight up pull extra energy from the battery, right?
现在与电动汽车相比较，它们仿佛是将96%的能量从电池转化为前进动力。因此它们非常高效，几乎没有浪费热量。因此，当你打开加热设备时，你必须直接从电池中获取额外的能量。
So it's, I mean, it's a it's a it's a great thing that they're so efficient, but it's sort of a the downside to it is that with with traditional like resistive heat systems, where just like you have to heat some coils, you know, and blow air through it, it takes a lot of extra energy.
这么说吧，他们的效率非常高是一件好事，但是弊端是传统电阻加热系统需要加热线圈，然后将空气吹过去，这需要额外的能量。
Now some of the more modern EVs, the tech, every Tesla model Y pretty much every Hyundai at this point. So I think the the new Tesla Model 3s have a different technology in there called heat pump, which is like it's not like brand new technology.
现在有一些更现代的电动汽车，例如每款特斯拉Model Y和几乎每款现代汽车。所以我认为新的特斯拉Model 3采用了一种不同的技术，叫做热泵。这种技术不是全新的。
I'm in a hotel room right now. There's a heat pump and then the, you know, and up in the ceiling. They are much more efficient in essentially translating energy into hot and cold air.
我现在在一个旅馆房间里。有一个热泵，还有一个在天花板上的，你知道的那个。它们在将能量转化为热空气和冷空气方面更加高效。
And so cars, cars with a heat pump in them lose like on average 10 to 15 percent of range in winter. They're just that more efficient. And so like honestly, I'm like, I'm an EV guy, right? I'm like fanboy the whole deal.
因此，带有热泵的汽车在冬季平均损失10到15％的续航里程。它们只是更加高效而已。老实说，我是一个电动汽车爱好者，我非常喜欢它。
And I would say to my friends who live in northern, like live in places where it's so super cold in the winter, like, you know, unless you're only using a car to drive around the city, like I wouldn't buy an EV that didn't have a heat pump in it. I mean, I respect your intellectual honesty.
我会跟在北方生活的朋友们说，比如那些在冬天特别冷的地方生活的人，你们如果不仅在城市里开车，我就不会买没有热泵的电动车。虽然我尊重你们的知识诚实。
I would say so on that note, I mean, I have so many questions. But first things first, if that's your belief, right? What percentage market share do EVs hold by 2030 or say 2035?
在这方面我会这么说，我的意思是，我有很多问题。但首要问题是，如果这是你的信念，对吧？到2030年或者说2035年，电动车所占市场份额将会是多少？
All right. So I heard Steve Greenfield on your podcast last week. And here's what I'll say about Steve. Great, incredibly knowledgeable. He and I actually agree on the next about five years of EV adoption, right? So like we both, we both think five years from now, this is, you know, 30 percent, I think of the market, right? And then we'd start to diverge, right?
好的，我听了上周你的播客节目中关于Steve Greenfield的访谈。我要说的是，Steve非常棒，非常有知识。他和我其实在电动汽车（EV）采用率下个五年方面意见相同，对吧？所以我们两个都认为五年后，EV将占据市场的30%。接下来我们的观点可能会有分歧。
Now here's my my theory of the case. First of all, look at like all these different expert forecasts, Boston Consulting Group has been one in particular that reruns this like that very sophisticated model to sort of figure out adoption globally and in the US. So here's here's here's what their numbers have said. So the first time they ran this forecast was 2018 and they said they were using 2030 as their projection year. They were like in 2018. They said 12 years from now it's going to be 21 percent of the market as EVs. So these are new sales, right? They reran at the next year and they were like, actually, it's going to be 26 percent.
现在，我想分享一下我对这个案例的理论。首先，我们来看看各种专家的预测，波士顿咨询集团是其中一家，他们使用了精密模型来预测全球和美国的电动汽车采用率。这是他们的数据：首次预测是在2018年，他们以2030年为预测年份。在2018年，他们预测12年后电动汽车市场占比为21%。第二年再次预测，他们发现电动汽车市场占比将达到26%。
They reran it in 2020, sorry, 2021. They were like, yeah, actually, we think it's going to be 42 percent. And they reran it just nine months ago, middle of 2022. And they said, now there's only eight years away 2030. They think now it's over half for 53 percent. And then that projection, you draw that forward to 2035. And this was before any of all the federal sort of like tailpipe regulations and all the new stuff, the inflation reduction act, they were saying 72 percent in the US, right?
他们在2020年(或2021年，对不起，我记不清了)重新运行了它。他们说，实际上，我们认为它将达到42%。仅有九个月之前，在2022年中期，他们重新运行了它，当时距离2030年只有八年。现在，他们认为已经超过了一半，达到了53%。如果把这个预测向前推到2035年，这是在所有联邦尾气排放法规和所有新规中实施之前，他们认为美国能达到72%。
By 2035. So I probably think it's somewhere in between those, you know, where Steve's Steve's estimates and Boston Consulting Group is. But I think it's notable that every time they've rerun that analysis, it's leaps up for the same year. So I think there's something systematically that's happening faster than the underlying data would show. So to be clear, so you're saying at least 50 percent by 2030. I would, yeah, I would lay down a hundred dollar bet with Steve right now that it's over 50 percent of new car sales are electric vehicles by 2030. And I would actually, I would have probably even go 60 40 and Steve, if you're listening 200 bucks on that. I don't know. It's great. It's going to be so long before I have to pay out or he has to pay out. He's probably take that bet.
到2035年，我认为新能源汽车销售量占比应该会超过目前史蒂夫和波士顿咨询集团预测的数字，但不会超过这两个数字之间的平均数。然而，值得注意的是，每一次重新运行分析时，都会发现预测数字在同一年上升。因此，我认为存在某种系统性的加速，快于基础数据所显示的速度。明确说一下，您是指到2030年至少有50％的新车销售是电动车吗？是的，我敢跟史蒂夫打赌100美元，到2030年，新能源汽车销售量占比超过50％。甚至我觉得可能会超过60％。如果史蒂夫在听，我也愿意打赌200美元。不管怎样，我和他谁输谁赢，都不会那么快的。
I mean, I talk to dealers all the time, right? I'm a dealer and there's definitely dealers that sell a lot more EVs than us. One of the concerns lately has been just the price risk, right? Like just to give you an example, Tesla has dropped roughly 15 percent in their values since the beginning of Q1. And, you know, as dealers, you hold this inventory on your balance sheet. If you don't sell that car, you know, relatively quickly 30, 60 days, I mean, you're stuck with serious depreciation and you're taking a big L. And so how do you at recurrent, right? You're clearly working on battery transparency and, you know, directly impacts the value. How can you fix that? How can you help, you know, ease dealers and, you know, ease that prevention of buying an EV now that in a way there's this new risk added to the market. It's no longer just, hey, I'm going to buy an EV and hopefully it's great and I'll sell it and, oh, you know, it's nice and dandy. It's going to follow a normal depreciation schedule. Now, as a dealer, you've just, there's another risk added into my calculus, which is, well, what happens if the OEMs change the prices? It's not only Tesla, right? Ford changed some prices of its new cars, new EVs.
我的意思是，我经常与经销商交流，对吧？我自己也是个经销商，肯定有些经销商比我们卖更多的电动汽车。近来，一个担忧就是价格风险，对吧？就拿特斯拉来举例，自本季度初以来，他们的价值大约下跌了15%。你知道，作为经销商，你要在你的资产负债表上持有这个库存。如果你不能在30、60天内相对快速地卖掉汽车，你将遭受严重的折旧损失，从而承担巨大的亏损。因此，你如何解决这个问题，Recurrent呢？你显然在致力于电池透明度，并直接影响价值。你如何修复这个问题？你如何帮助经销商，缓解购买电动汽车的问题，现在市场上有了一个新的风险。现在不只是：嘿，我要买辆电动汽车，希望它很棒，我可以卖掉它，哦，你知道，一切都很好。现在，作为一个经销商，我的计算中又添加了另一个风险，就是，如果OEM们改变价格会发生什么情况？不仅是特斯拉，对吧？福特也改变了其新车、新电动汽车的价格。
So how do you get around that? And like, how does recurrent help mitigate that apprehension? Yeah. So listen, we are a bunch of battery, a company full of battery nerds, right? So we're not, I can't like tweeted Elon and tell him to stop changing prices. You know, so it's not like that there is some, some of this is out of our control.
那么你怎么应对这个问题？同时，再说一下，recurrent如何帮助缓解这种担忧呢？是的，我们是一群电池迷，我们公司里全都是电池迷。所以，并不是我们可以像发推特给Elon那样让他停止改变价格。有些情况是我们无法控制的。
You know, I think for dealers who are thinking about do I go and play the used Tesla roulette game? Because it like, there's a lot, I mean, these are like the model wise, the most popular car in the world now. Like this, this here, model threes are flooding the used market. Like there's an incredible, there's kind of a number of opportunities if you want to go in on this. But I think like there's a couple of keys to this. I'll say three things for a dealership thinking about them. Do I go use Tesla's or not?
你知道吗，我认为对于那些正在考虑是否参加二手特斯拉轮盘游戏的经销商来说，这是非常值得思考的。因为这些车款现在是全世界最受欢迎的汽车，尤其是Model 3。二手市场上这些车几乎不计其数，因此如果你想尝试这个市场，就会有很多机会。但我认为这里有几个关键点，如果你是一家经销店考虑这个问题，我建议你考虑以下三个方面。
One is I think you're going to find, you're probably not going to want to carry a lot of inventory and you're going to want to figure out like no wind is sort of like downsize and no end to upshift and sort of get sort of like, I think like watch the watch the tea leaves of what the price changes are likely to do. Just let me stand. I think that's going to get muted as there are just more numbers out there. Like the, the, do you do that's practical? I mean, I'm a dealer. I want to sell cars. I don't want to follow the macro like cardio ship guy.
我认为你会发现，你可能不想承载太多的库存，你需要想办法缩小规模并提升效率。你需要密切关注价格变化的走向。但是我认为，随着市场上出现越来越多的竞争对手，这个市场会变得更加沉闷。我是一个经销商，我想卖车，而不想像宏观经济学家那样追随市场趋势。
Okay. So then, then the easy way of doing is just like minimize your. risk by not holding that many in inventory. So really think about what can we do to to to to pick up and and dispose units quickly. So you're not holding the hundred cars basically at the same time. Which I think is like a generally good practice. You want to be thinking about with anything. I think that just takes her a little bit higher on, you know, on the, you know, on the used Tesla's because of that sort of like the volatility right now.
好的，那么简单的做法就是通过减少库存来降低风险。因此，真正需要考虑的是如何快速选择和处理车辆，这样你就不会同时持有一百辆车。我认为这通常是一个很好的做法，无论你做什么事情都应该这样思考。由于目前的波动，我认为这会使她在二手特斯拉市场上的地位更高。
So I that's one thing, right? Like two, I'd say like make sure you know what you're getting. So that's very true from a battery perspective. You know, like I think that's like a, you want to make sure and, you know, the dealers working with recurrent.
所以这是一件事情，对吧？再说第二点，我会说，确保你知道你得到的是什么。从电池的角度来看，这是非常重要的，你要确保与转换经销商合作。
Sorry, I know that's supposed to be plug in my, my own company, but like dealers working. What do you mean? Of course, of course. Yeah, great. Then fine. I'm unplugging my company. Plug away. Plug away. Record. Record. Record. Record. Record. Record. So dealers working with the recurrent can use our tools to to essentially understand what they're getting. Like they know, like, oh gosh, this battery is a 92 or this, this one's an 80 and that's and the 92 is like going to be better. I'm going to be able to explain it, you know, and sell it for more and sell it faster. What does that mean? Is this on a scale? Yeah. So we just have like a rating system that basically says like, you know, 92 means this car gets 92% of the range that it did when it was new. And that's like actually pretty great, you know, and that's not uncommon. That happens all the time. You know, and we just use that kind of number score sort of zero to 100.
抱歉，我知道我应该推销我的公司，但就像经销商的工作一样。你是什么意思？当然，当然。太好了，那就好了。我撤回我的公司。继续推销。继续推销。记录。记录。记录。记录。记录。所以，与回收经销商合作，他们可以使用我们的工具来了解他们得到了什么。就像他们知道，啊，天哪，这个电池是92的，或者这个是80的，92就会更好。我能够解释它，你知道，以更高的价格更快地出售它。这是什么意思？这是基于一个刻度吗？是的。因此，我们只是有一个评分系统，基本上表示，你知道，92表示这辆车在它是新的时候得到了92％的续航里程，这实际上非常好，这是很常见的。我们只是使用了0到100的数字得分。
But just knowing what you're getting as a dealer is just as important as a shop or knowing what they're getting. So I think that's what we kind of have realized and are really helping our dealers with. But besides the battery and by the way, really extra important on older, on older vehicles where you're like, you know, that are coming up on that warranty cut off and you want to make sure that you're not getting something that you're not going to be able to sell because the range is just so degraded. But the other thing is separate from batteries is like understanding how to you can't just look at a van anymore and say and know exactly what what the car is and what it's equipped with, you know, there's like you need to be able to figure out how to how to identify the software and the hardware that's on there of the software subscription.
作为一个经销商，知道自己在获取什么信息和了解对方获取的信息同等重要，就像了解商店的信息一样。我认为我们意识到了这一点，正在与我们的经销商一起努力解决。除了电池以外，老车上面的电池尤其重要，因为它们即将到达保修期截止日，您需要确保没有买到车辆续航能力强度严重降低的产品。另外，除了电池之外，还需要了解如何识别车辆上的软件和硬件，无法再通过观察车辆外观来了解车辆的配备情况，需要学会如何检查软件订阅的相关信息。
What's transferable like do you is full self driving transferable on this car is a free super charging transferable like there's all kinds of like more complicated questions that are if you can get good at it, like it's an incredible opportunity because you're you're zicking where everybody else is zagging. So I think there's a big opportunity here from a dealer perspective.
你认为哪些功能可以转移？例如这辆车的全自动驾驶功能是否可以转移？超级充电免费是否可以转移？这些问题比较复杂，但如果你能了解清楚，这将是一次绝佳的机会，因为你可以和其他竞争者不同。我认为作为一名经销商，这里有很大的机会。
So let's piggyback off of that for a second. You mentioned like other parts of the EV calculus, right? Like is this transferable the charging? I did some research into a car and I was looking through your offerings and you're offering something for shoppers for EV owners and for dealers. Yeah. How do you how do you balance that? Where's the you know asymmetrical opportunity here? Is it just having this kind of you know all in one bundled marketplace or service that that you know is able to tackle every part of the market? I always think about like, you know, are we horizontally integrating? Are we vertically integrating? Like where are we you know, where are we building that mode and how are we becoming a stronger company that's providing more value?
那么，让我们借此思考一下。您提到了电动汽车的其他方面，对吗？比如充电转移，我研究了一辆汽车，并查看了您提供的一些服务，包括面向购物者、电动汽车车主和经销商的服务。您是如何平衡这些服务的？哪里存在不对称的机会呢？只是提供一个综合的市场或服务，能够应对市场的所有方面吗？我一直在想，我们是否正在进行横向整合或垂直整合？我们在哪里构建这种模式，以及如何让我们成为一个提供更多价值的更强大的公司？
Yeah. Well, there's sort of a there's a there's a flywheel here. So I think that yeah, we do we are trying to serve three different audiences, but let me just like walk through why they're all connected. So I already talked about what we do for a shopper like you show up, how to use a car dealer or interact on their website and anyone who wants to take a look, as long as I'm in the plugging mode, you can go to Dell Grand Automotive Group and see what recurrent reports look like from a retail perspective as they as they do.
是的。嗯，这里有一个飞轮。我想我们是在尝试服务三个不同的受众，但让我解释一下它们为什么互相关联。所以，我已经提到我们为像您这样的购物者所做的事情，您可以出现在汽车经销商或他们的网站上，并且任何想要查看的人，只要我在推销模式，您可以去戴尔格兰德汽车集团看看从零售角度来看的周期性报告是什么样子的。
Those guys sell a lot of used TVs like to everybody in Silicon Valley and and they're using their work and with us, right? So, but it answers those questions that shoppers have. From a dealer perspective, you know, there's this it's it's mostly the same offering I will say is like, you know, we've seen that dealers that that use our reports and help in the retail side, they sell their cars faster, they set expectations with their buyer.
那些人在硅谷向所有人销售大量二手电视，并且他们和我们一起工作，是吗？这样做回答了购物者们的问题。从经销商的角度来看，我们可以说，这基本上是相同的，就是我们已经看到我们的报告帮助零售方面的经销商更快地售出汽车，他们与买家建立了期望。
So like, you know, to go back to what we talked about earlier, a car an EPA a car with an EPA range of 250 miles that gets 220 today is great. It's fine. Most people drive 30 miles a day like you don't need any of that, right?
所以，你知道的，回到我们之前讨论的话题，一辆车如果有250英里的EPA行驶里程，今天只有220英里，那就很好了。这很不错。大多数人每天开车只开30英里，就像你一样，不需要那么高的行驶里程，对吧？
Now, however, if you were expecting 250 and what you get is 220, like you might be pretty mad, you know, and you might show up at the dealership and return the car. Now we've seen like our dealers working with us, they walk customer through this is what you're going to get like you like you'd walk a customer through a car facts report and and all of a sudden customers having their expectations set they're like, yeah, great.
现在，如果您期望得到 250，但实际上只得到了 220，您可能会感到非常生气，您可能会到汽车经销店退还汽车。现在我们已经看到我们的经销商与我们合作，他们会向客户解释这就是您将得到的内容，就像您向客户解释汽车事实报告一样。突然间，客户的期望得到了设定，他们会说“太好了”。
I understand what I'm getting and then I'll return the car. And then and then from a dealer perspective, also like how to value and price use TVs like which are no longer the the right way of thinking about this like don't price a car with high mileage lower because, you know, what if that car just had a battery replacement like every Chevy bolt ever made like, you have a Chevy bull with 75,000 miles on it with a with a battery that's brand new higher capacity than what it had when it was new and it gets more range than it did when it was new.
我会先了解到车的状况，然后再归还车辆。而从经销商的角度来看，也需要了解如何评估价格，例如对于那些不再被考虑的电视类似的车型，不要因为里程数高就将价格定低，因为也许这辆车刚刚更换了电池，就像Chevy Bolt车型一样，如果它能够拥有全新的电池，那么就能比当初的性能还有更好的续航能力。
So like there's just this like absolute disconnect of kind of the value of a used EV compared to its odometer number at this point. So that's the like kind of you can got to obviously I think that the shopper questions and the dealer sort of like experience pretty aligned.
因为目前二手电动车的价值与行驶里程数之间存在明显的脱节，所以买家的疑问和经销商的经验基本一致。这就是目前最重要的问题。
And then the last thing is the owner piece of this we actually funny thing is like we started the company originally with an owner product and that's like if you're an EV owner you can come and sign up on our website for free to track your car's data basically your battery data. And that's really cool for for us from a data perspective that's really what comes now we have 15,000 cars that are actively on our platform they're feeding us data wirelessly every streaming data over the you know the over the internet every day.
然后最后一件事是关于这个项目的所有者部分，我们实际上很有趣的是，我们最初是因为拥有一款产品才创立了这家公司。如果你是一名电动汽车车主，你可以在我们的网站上免费注册，以追踪你的汽车数据，基本上是你的电池数据。对于我们来说，这真的很酷，因为从数据的角度来看，我们现在拥有15,000辆汽车正在活跃地使用我们的平台，每天无线地向我们传输流数据。
It allows us to basically get this really big comparison set of cars to kind of compare to when we see a car show up at a used car dealer. You're like the you're like the ancestry dot com of EV back oh my gosh that's our new mono right there.
这个工具可以让我们获得一组大量的汽车比较数据，以便在我们看到一辆二手车时进行比较。你就像是EV回溯网站的一个版本，太神奇了，这将成为我们的新单轨系统。
But yeah but the other thing is that when it turns out from an owner perspective like when we've been tracking the data all the way along when they go to sell their car like we have kind of like their car's permanent record. And so when they choose like hey I want to sell it they they can share their recurrent reports and they're selling their car for hundreds of thousands of dollars more because there's no uncertainty about the battery.
但是还有一件事，就是当从车主的角度来看时，当我们一直跟踪数据时，当他们要出售他们的汽车时，我们就有了他们汽车的永久记录。因此，当他们选择出售时，他们可以分享他们的重复报告，因为电池没有任何不确定性，他们可以将他们的汽车卖出几十万美元的价格。
So it all kind of feeds together I think and actually what we're doing now with with with some of our dealers is we're actually doing a you know turn turn doing a connection thing where just you know from a dealer perspective it looks like a first sale by owner lead gen business where it's just like hey when we have people in our fleet who have been taking really good care of their batteries and we've got all the data and they're like yeah I'm ready to sell we're doing kind of like matchmaking and and it looks like it's just a new source for dealers to acquire great inventory.
我认为所有这些都在某种程度上相互呼应。事实上，我们现在正在与一些经销商合作，进行一种连接的方式，从经销商的角度来看，这似乎是一种首次销售者线索生成业务。当我们的车队中有些人对他们的电池进行了良好的保养，并且我们有了所有数据，他们愿意出售时，我们正在进行一种类似于匹配的操作，看起来这只是经销商获取优质库存的一种新源。
So that's I think that's like ends up being the circular flywheel that we're doing across all those parties.
这样，我认为我们在所有派对中做的这个循环飞轮就这样形成了。意思是这个循环飞轮成为了我们在各种派对中的常规做法。
Is there like a point where is the point with the most meaningful drop in valuation from a battery score right like is it like 65 like at that point I would just not buy a car below that like you're gonna there's a highly likely you're gonna have to replace the battery right as a dealer frankly and a consumer like I would be curious to know like where at what point should I not touch that car obviously there's a price to everything but I don't want to go and start replacing batteries I don't want to do that yeah
有没有一点，在电池评分方面造成估值最有意义的下降，比如说65分，这个点以下的车我就不会买，因为你很可能不得不更换电池，作为一个销售商和消费者，我很想知道在哪个点我不应该考虑这辆车。当然，每个事物都有一个价格，但我不想去更换电池，这是我不想做的。
So I mean what I'll say is that that you know most EVs that we see and we score and like everything all the used EVs running through Odessa from an auction perspective are getting recurrent scores on them so like we're seeing a lot of stuff that's pretty varied and you know most of what we're seeing is in the 90s a little bit in the 80s like all that's fine I would say what I would you know as a dealer and as a as a shopper I would say like you know really a car this couple years old like there's not too much of a difference it's gonna happen there as you get into 3 4 5 6 year-old car like there's there's there there's just more variance right and so you could have two cars EPA of 260 and now one of them is 180 and one of them is 210 like they're both fine you're not gonna have to do a battery replacement you know on those but like you should pay more for the 210 because you're gonna get more utility out of it you know and that's I think we're what we're seeing it just and I'm not to put words in your mouth these are totally my words but it just sounds like you already came up with the ancestry.com thing so I know I was gonna say like it just feels to me like the EPA ratings are a scam it's like and and I'm not even blaming the EPA it's like it's like how can you really have any confidence in that
我想说的是，我们所见到的大多数电动汽车和我们打分的电动汽车，以及从拍卖的角度来看所有二手电动汽车在Odessa都有定期的评分。我们看到了很多不同的情况，大部分评分在90分左右，有些在80分左右，这一切都很好。我认为如果一个几年前的车，不会有太大的区别。但是如果是一个三到六年的车，就会有更多的差异。你可能会看到两辆车EPA都是260，但其中一辆是180，另外一辆是210。这两辆车都没问题，你不需要更换电池，但你应该为210的车付更多的钱，因为它能提供更多的便利。我认为我们所看到的情况就是这样，我不是要替你说话，这都是我的话，只是听起来好像你已经想到了祖先网站的事情。我想说的是，EPA评级感觉像是一种骗局，并不是在责备EPA，只是感觉你真的能对这有信心吗？
I mean you know I think that the that no they're not a scam they they run a standardized protocol and they you know they they are following that protocol I just don't think that that protocol is particularly it just doesn't match up with a real world rating so in the same way that like Miles Pergallon you know differs in different sort of conditions I think that's like the EPA probably didn't start out that way I actually don't really know like the highway number and the city street number you know I think that I I think that it would be helpful to to to have EPA winter versus EPA summer I think from a range perspective I think they're really interesting because I think it would it would all honestly cause more people to a more automakers to sort of like think about gosh lift the what's the winter range you know loss which we actually did a whole I mean that was like we you asked about the research that we've been doing so one of the other things we do with all the data that's streaming off of these cars is we pull together aggregate research pieces and and publish them and so like in December we did a thing essentially like modeled by model what's the range lost for all these different EVs in the in the dead of winter which you know like no one else is publishing that data but we're sitting there looking at it and we're like well yeah I'm gonna I'm gonna call a ball of all a strike a strike when when one car loses 40% in the in the winter and another car because it has resistive heat and another car only loses 10% like that's valuable information that's not just relevant to use shoppers to relevant to a new EV shopper you have this very intimate insight into the segment
我的意思是，我认为他们并不是欺诈，他们运行的是标准化协议，并且他们遵循这个协议。只是我认为这个协议不太符合真实世界的评级。就像每加仑英里数在不同条件下有所不同一样，我认为环境保护署(EPA)当初也不是这样的。我不确定高速公路和城市街道的数字是什么，但我认为能够进行EPA冬季和EPA夏季的划分会很有帮助。从续航方面来看，我认为它们非常有趣，因为它们会促使更多的汽车制造商考虑冬季续航损失。我们做的另一件事就是收集所有流出这些车的数据，并进行综合研究和发布。例如去年12月，我们对不同型号的电动车在严寒的冬天里续航损失做了一个模型分析，这种数据其他人都没有发布，但我们却可以通过分析获得宝贵的信息，不仅对购车人有帮助，还对新的电动车购买者有相当大的吸引力。
it's very clear that what you're working on now is extremely necessary and the market needs it so where are the picks and shovels now within the space and from your insights you're so close to this right where are the opportunities um let me throw two ideas out here one is a one for dealers I think it's not investor question but it's an opportunity for the dealer perspective that I don't think people are thinking about yet uh and the second one I'll do is sort of like I think is another company that probably needs to exist and I don't know that we do a lot of going on right so so investors entrepreneurs like go for the second idea that I'm gonna say
很明显，你现在所从事的工作是极其必要的，市场需要这个，那么在这个领域中，需要哪些工具和资源呢？根据你的见解，你离这个很近，那么有哪些机会呢？让我提出两个想法。一个是给交易商的一个机会，我认为这不是一个投资者的问题，但是从交易商的角度来看，这是一个机会，我认为人们尚未考虑到。第二个想法我会介绍一下另一个可能需要存在的公司，不知道我们是否对此有很多想法，那么投资者和企业家可以考虑我要提出的第二个想法。
From a dealer perspective, um, I'm gonna talk about tax credits for a minute and I know dealers are not so excited about this but bear with me for a second. Every single story I've ever read about the EV tax credits all about the news side right, like the where's the battery made, like what's qualifying for the full 7500 all these questions right?
从经销商的角度来看，我想要谈一谈税收抵免，我知道经销商可能对此没有那么兴奋，但请给我一点时间。我所读到的有关电动汽车税收抵免的每一篇报道，都关注于新闻方面，比如电池是哪里制造的、什么符合完整的7500美元抵免标准等等这些问题。
As a part of last year's inflation reduction act, they put in the first time ever, the federal government is to stuck a tax credit on used cars. Right now, for basics, it's a four thousand dollar tax credit on a car up to uh sort of like a certain purchase price. There's income limits, there's no batteries so we're sourcing a requirement, this doesn't matter, the only thing is like it's only like a car can't be transferred you know more than once and get the thing again. So, but the really key piece of that from a dealer perspective, which I think actually has uh an opportunity to just transform and grow the dealerships or share of the of the used car sales is uh every car that gets one of these credits has to be sold by a dealer. It doesn't apply to private party sales, and so like that's half the market all of a sudden that like the dealership industry has a chance to pick up, like a whole bunch more cars almost, then there's a four thousand dollar sort of like a cost advantage that a dealer has basically, um.
作为去年通胀降低法案的一部分，他们第一次为二手车设立联邦政府的税收抵免。目前，对于基本款车型，购买价格达到一定标准的车辆可以获得四千美元的税收抵免。有收入限制，没有电池是一项要求，但这并不重要，唯一要注意的是车辆不能多次转让以获得税收抵免。但从经销商的角度来看，真正重要的一点是，每辆获得这些抵免的汽车必须由经销商销售。这不适用于私人转让销售，因此经销商行业有机会拓展二手车销售份额，从而获得更多汽车和四千美元的成本优势。
So, I think that that's like that that if dealers can sort of like kind of get past all the price volatility and the stuff like that like this is a 10 year long program that could double the size of the used car market for them, like that's a big deal. So, you're so you're basically saying that dealers have a cost advantage when it comes to selling used EVs because they qualify for credit that a private party sale does not?
那么，我认为如果经销商能够克服价格波动等问题，这将是一个为期10年的项目，可以使他们的二手车市场翻倍，这是一件大事。因此，您的意思是经销商在销售二手电动车方面具有成本优势，因为他们有资格享受私人销售没有的信用贷款？
It's the so it's the buyer from the dealership can get that four thousand dollar tax credit and they and the buyer from a private party sale cannot get that, yes. So, it translates to you know and.
这个意思是：这意味着通过从经销商购买，买家可以获得四千美元的税收抵免，而从私人销售中购买的买家则无法获得这项抵免。因此，这就意味着通过从经销商购买，您可以获得更多的优惠。
it right now in 2023 it's a it's a tax you know form that the buyer has to fill out starting January 2024 uh I don't know the mechanism but but it's it's a cash on the hood sort of like point of sale rebate basically that like uh income qualified buyer which actually is pretty generous like you you can make up to a hundred fifty thousand dollars married filing filing jointly and still take this tax credit like uh and and the dealer will be able to just like discount the price by four thousand dollars and then get you know get a check from the government for that four thousand dollars like and now we got to figure out how exactly that works but like that all of a sudden makes it such that that all the whole dealer economics like could work and have that have an advantage over a private party sale you know.
目前在2023年，这是一个税收的形式，买方必须在2024年1月开始填写，我不知道具体机制，但这就像是现金折扣的销售点一样，有资格的买家其实非常宽松，您可以以每年15万美元的收入结婚联合申报纳税，并仍可享受此税收抵免。经销商将能够通过4000美元的折扣，同时获得政府的4000美元检查支付。现在我们得弄清楚具体是如何运作的，但这突然使得经销商的经济模式可以比私人销售更具优势。
so so again being unbiased here right like what why only dealers right like why can't you get this credit as a private party sale so I think what the government did was they said they were like you imagine like if I'm your you know I'm like hey cousin I'll send it I'll sell you my car this year you sell it back to me next year we both get four thousand dollar tax credits like I just I think of the the government was like we need sort of a a business entity involved in this in order to make sure it's not like there's not just rampant fraud so I suspect that's why that happened it's crazy because you know I'm thinking here it sounds it sounds like there's some opportunity here as well like almost like some you know officially licensed dealer as a middle man that facilitates these transactions for consumers not in for the purpose of cheating the system rather creating a platform specifically for people that want to sell private party legitimately right you have some verifications in place but you want to still get that credit yeah and so it just sounds to me like there's some opportunity there all right so you're right so there they may be there as you know you're thinking about you you took it to the second question of where's the investment where's the where's the startup opportunity like maybe I think there is something there.
再次中立地说，为什么只有经销商才能获得这个优惠，为什么作为私人交易方，你不能获得这个信贷？我认为政府的作法是他们说如果我是你的亲戚，我会卖给你我的汽车，你明年再卖给我，我们都可以获得4000美元的税收抵免，政府可能认为必须有一个商业实体介入来确保不会有欺诈行为。这太疯狂了，因为我认为这里也有一些机会，就像一个正式授权的经销商作为中间人，为那些希望合法出售私人车辆的消费者创造平台，你可以设立一些验证的机制但希望仍能获得信贷。所以，对我来说，这听起来是一个机会。你很有道理，你考虑到了第二个问题，就是投资在哪里，创业机会在哪里？或许我认为这里确实存在一些机会。
the other thing though is like the research has generally shown that that because EVs are still pretty new and a look the tech is brand new that people are still more likely to want to buy from a dealer because they sort of feel like I have more recourse than like meeting some guy in the Walmart parking lot and you know right in a cashier's check or whatever you know there's just say for for EVs specifically EVs people yeah shoppers are more inclined to buy from a dealer and they're also more inclined compared to ice cars to pick up an extended warranty on on on EVs than they are for ice cars so yeah like yeah so it's like I just I think that like there there are some dealerships that are like yeah like they're just they're working through this tech change and finding new opportunities here and there are other dealerships that I in my opinion are cut like are just like cutting off their nose despite their face kind of thing and just be like God the EVs through them and not seeing the opportunities that I think some folks are out there that are they're going for them you know so that's what I would say.
然而，研究普遍表明，由于EV还比较新，技术也是新的，人们更倾向于从经销商购买，因为他们觉得这样更有可靠性，比如在沃尔玛停车场遇到一些人并写支票或其他方式支付。在专门购买EV时，人们更倾向于从经销商购买，并且相比冰车，他们更倾向于选择购买EV的延保。因此，我认为一些经销商正在努力应对这种技术变革，并在新的机会中寻找机遇，而另一些经销商则没有看到这些机遇。所以这就是我想说的。
Fascinating. Here's another thing that comes to mind. And when I think about your company, I'm thinking about like a healthcare company, like an insurance company. And if I create something or a way, right? If you prove that doing xyz lowers fatalities or you know, obviously not smoking, you have less death, and or like you know less sicknesses, blah blah blah. And so the healthcare company is incentivized, you know, for you not to smoke and whatnot. It saves the money. So I'm trying to think like, is your company thinking about incentives for dealerships to innovate to sell more EVs and not just thinking that the dealers are all like an enemy because they want to sell more ice cars, like how are you thinking about that? A way for you to do some play like that, right? You're clearly providing value to dealers and others in helping them mitigate losses. And so I'll leave it at that. Let's, you know, respond.
有趣。这让我联想到另外一件事情。当我想到你们的公司时，我想到的是像医保公司一样的医疗保健公司。如果我设计了某种方式，证明采取特定行动可以降低死亡率或减少疾病，比如戒烟。这样医疗保健公司就会被激励，提高人们的健康水平，以减少支出。我在想，你们的公司是否考虑为经销商提供激励，以推动他们创新销售更多的电动汽车，而不只是认为经销商是敌人，因为他们想销售更多的燃油汽车。你们考虑过这种方式吗？明显地，你们为经销商和其他人提供了帮助，以减少他们的损失，所以就让我们看看你对此有何回应。
Coming into this industry, I did not appreciate how many different players would be needed to sort of transform their businesses based on the physical change in cars. And so I thought, well, there's dealerships, there's shoppers, that's it, right? I'm not, and I didn't come from the auto sort of industry. I came from climate tech, right? And so this is like the past three years have just been a very rapid learning experience. And I've tried to surround myself with a lot of people that have been the auto industry for a long time. So, you know, learning the applicability of on the wholesale side, on the fleet side, like they're sort of like there. We've got folks who are engaged in with them both those fronts. We've now had a bunch of conversations with insurance companies that want to do what you're doing, is like kind of price discriminate on risk and the value of the asset, which I think, like right now the battery state isn't a really important piece of that. Extended warranty companies, finance, and companies, there are just so many different players, and jm and a actually as an investor are so like, yeah, look at that. Yeah, so there's like, I didn't know that there are, there's a lot of that happening right now. I don't think that there are any, there may be one nascent extended warranty offering for EVs that actually covers the battery and there's all kinds of restrictions on that, but like, there's just, it's very, very early, and no one feels like they have the data yet for that. And I think, I think, I think that is absolutely an opportunity for us moving forward.
进入这个行业之前，我没有意识到需要多少不同的玩家来基于汽车的物理变化来转型他们的业务。所以我原以为只有经销商和购车者，对吗？其实我不是来自汽车行业，我是来自气候科技领域的。所以过去三年来，我就像是在一个非常快速的学习经历中。我试图围绕自己与很多长期从事汽车行业的人士。所以，学习批发侧、车队侧的适用性，我们已经有此方面的人员了。我们现在与保险公司进行了许多谈话，他们想要做你们正在做的事情，即基于风险和资产价值来价格歧视，我认为，目前电池状态就是其中非常重要的一部分。延长保修公司、金融公司，有很多不同的玩家，而jm和a作为投资者也很重视这些机会。所以，我之前并没有意识到这种情况正在发生。我认为目前可能只有一个早期的EV延伸保修提供者真正涵盖了电池，并且有很多限制，但是，现在还很早，没有人认为他们已经拥有了所需的数据。我认为这绝对是我们未来的机会。
As a dealer, how does my workflow change over the next couple of years when it comes to buying EVs? Or is something like recurrent plugged in natively to my workflow, to my systems, you know, whether it be auction or you know, buying from wherever right, does it just get plugged in just like there's a condition report on a car right? Then there's like EV report. Is that what is that what the future looks like? I think and I'm going to say, and I'm going to say one more thing. Like, is Manheim capable of creating that type of experience built in natively to the point where it really derisks the buying experience for dealers, what do you think?
作为一名经销商，未来几年我在购买电动汽车方面的工作流程会发生哪些变化？或者说，类似于定期的插入到我的工作流程和系统中，无论是通过拍卖还是从其他地方购买，这样的东西会像车辆状况报告一样被插入其中吗？未来是不是就是这样的情况？我认为，还有一点要说的是，曼海姆是否有能力创建这样的内置体验，使经销商真正能够减轻购买的风险，您认为呢？
So I do think that this eventually does become one of the things you look at. You look at the auto check score, you look at, you know, the car facts like record, you know, the mid-experience, you know, history adjusted, you know, like it was in accidents or whatever, black book value, whatever. And then you also, for EVs, you look at the EV battery score. I don't think it's going to be like, we're trying to not make it super complicated because it's one element of you know, electric vehicles are still vehicles, right? And so I think this is one element that is super important that's absolutely going to be, you know, something you're looking at from a dealer perspective. Right now it's not really integrated, we're not really integrated into like everywhere, but it shows up in the deser reports, it shows up in like any car than any of our dealers buys. They have a little like easy iPhone widget to like to check the battery just by looking at the dashboard basically and comparing it to all the cars we have. I think over time that does, that just like that finds its way into every sort of thing, every different channel. And yeah, like I think we're, you know, I know we're the first mover here and the first book points on the board. We've been doing this three years and have all this data to show for it. So hopefully, you know, we end up as the standard for this, but you know, I don't know. The problem is real, right? And so I think that like, we're, I think we're a great solution and we're out there with points on the board everywhere and you both will see what what the market says.
所以我认为这最终会成为你考虑的因素之一。你会查看汽车自检分数，查看车辆记录，了解中间经验，根据历史记录调整，例如是否曾发生过事故，黑书价值等。对于电动汽车而言，你还会查看电池评分。我认为我们不会把这搞得太复杂，因为电动汽车还是汽车。我认为这是一个非常重要的因素，绝对是从经销商的角度考虑的东西。目前，这并没有真正整合到任何地方，但它会出现在消费者报告中，也会出现在我们的任何一家经销商购买的汽车上。他们有一个简单的 iPhone 工具来查看电池，只需查看仪表板并将其与我们所有汽车进行比较即可。我认为随着时间的推移，这将出现在各种渠道中。是的，我知道我们是第一个采取行动的人，也是第一个表现出成果的人。我们已经这样做了三年，并且有大量数据可以证明。希望我们最终成为这方面的标准，但我不知道。问题是真实的，所以我认为我们是一个很好的解决方案，而且我们在各个领域都拥有成绩，你们会看到市场会怎么说的。
In the spirit of having a balanced conversation, I mean, I think we clearly know the bulk case of EVs and it's clear that adoption is increasing and market is growing.
为了保持平衡的对话，我觉得我们都明白电动汽车的主要情况，而且采用率正在增加，市场正在壮大。
What is the bear case about the EV world and adoption for the future? Well, what here's what.
未来的电动汽车世界及其普及面的风险是什么？这就是其中一个。
I would say is like today and this this is going to change very quickly over the next sort of like couple of years right but right now public charging public fast charging outside of the test and network kind of sucks like and so it's really I mean I so I drive a Volkswagen 94 it's a great car super cool car I was gonna ask you that question.
我想说的是，现在的情况就好像今天，但是在未来两年内情况会很快改变。但就目前而言，公共快速充电站还未普及，这真的很糟糕。我驾驶的是一辆大众94年的汽车，它非常棒，超级酷。我想问你同样的问题。
yeah no yeah so great yeah let's get to that right interesting like I didn't have that car when I started the company I drove a see I drive my other car super route back like you know like a good any good Seattle Seattle customer like yeah I tweeted about that before yeah yeah you fit the bill I don't my god do I ever fit the bill basically so but but you know I've charged that car I've free three three years of charging with the electrician America you know with that I got with the car a year and a half ago I've charged it publicly four times like in a year and a half and it just because like I have a level two charger in my house like I don't even really need it honestly I could probably be on a level one and I always leave the house full so like I'm almost never the only time I've ever happened.
嗯，没错，太好了，让我们来谈谈吧，有意思，就像我开始公司时，我没有那辆车，我开了一辆.....我开着我的其他车，超级舒适的旅途回来，就像你知道的，像好的西雅图客户那样。嗯，我之前曾经在推特上发过那方面的帖子，你很合适。天哪，我真的很适合，本质上我已经用电美国免费充电3年了，你知道，我在一年半之前得到那辆车时就已经这样了。在一年半的时间里，我只在公共场合充电4次，因为我家里有一台二级充电器，实际上我根本不需要它，说实话，我可能只需要一级充电器，我总是离开家之前充满电，所以几乎从来没有出现过没电的情况。
what's the difference from a level one to level two charging sorry yeah so level one is just like you plug it into a wall outlet like that's it right level two is like the kind where where it's like it's it's on it's on a 220 volt circuit and then you either have a you know 20 30 40 50 60 amp like power going to it so like I think ours is like a 30 amp circuit or whatever so that but those are the level two and then and then that's and then level three or DC fast charging is what like the Tesla superchargers what the most the electrician America EVGO stations are not actually that's not most but it's but that's but that's that's what's getting built out from public charging perspective the kind where you can like stop at the highway rest stop or the Walmart parking lot and put you know charger car from you know 30 to 80 percent in like 15 minutes you know that's that's a DC fast charging and like right now that that infrastructure is not good you know like even as an EV fanboy like I just I've had terrible experiences even the four times I've done that right like it doesn't really work well right.
什么是一级和二级充电的区别？一级充电只需插入墙上插座即可，而二级充电需要使用220伏电路，通常有20、30、40、50、60安培的电源，我们使用的是30安培电路。三级或DC快速充电即特斯拉超级充电器以及美国EVGO站，这是当前正在从公共充电角度建设的基础设施，可以在公路休息站或沃尔玛停车场停车，将汽车充电从30%到80%，只需15分钟。而目前，在此基础设施方面存在问题，即使我作为一个电动车迷，曾经尝试充电四次，也遇到了糟糕的体验和效果。
and so there's a lot that has to change with that but here's my thing is like and this gets back to the like Stephen Myz argument about adoption like the first my opinion the first 50 percent of EV adoption like could and I'm not talking just like sales I'm talking like vehicles in the car park like you know like the first 50 percent could basically happen now like one of every two cars you know with everybody with a with a house right with a garage or a driveway could be in an EV without any change to public charging right you can't get rid of your second car your ice car until then but like you know the average trip to 30 miles a day like you know you that's pretty easy to get with with with essentially the tech that's out there now and and just plugging in your wall no problem you know.
因此，需要做很多改变。但我的看法是，这与Stephen Myz的关于采用的论点有关。我认为，前50％的电动汽车采用率可以在现在实现，而不仅仅是销售，我指的是停车场中的车辆，你知道的，如果每两辆车中就有一辆是电动汽车，并且每个人都有一个有车库或车道的房子，那么就不需要改变公共充电等方面的问题。在那之前，你不能摆脱第二辆车或是燃油车，但是每天平均30英里的车程，使用现有技术并将其插入墙上插座，没有问题。
I think the biggest issue I see there it seems like unless there's some crazy disruption in the EV space and we really do get you know massive price cuts and it becomes more affordable it just seems like you know to to be able to drive an EV when there isn't just ubiquitous found fast charging everywhere you're going to need to have you know a house with a charger that's readily available and I just I just don't know if that's the majority of the market today and again everything I'm saying is I have no horse in this race for me yeah yeah I'm more so curious like what happens next.
我认为我看到的最大问题是，除非在电动汽车领域发生一些疯狂的颠覆，我们真的能够获得巨大的价格优惠，让它变得更加实惠，否则只有到处都能找到快速充电，你才能驾驶电动汽车。你需要有一个可靠可用的充电器和一个能源供应的住所，而我不确定这是当今市场的大多数需求，而且我说的一切都与我没有任何关系，我更好奇的是接下来会发生什么。
I actually think that that the toughest part some of the toughest part about EV adoption is going to be urban environment where there's like parking is at a premium and getting new getting new power sort of like threaded to parking lots and parking garages is more challenging I think the the first wave of this happens in the suburbs where everyone has you know a two car garage and you know enough panel space to put in a charger that's like all that can happen today you know again with the infrastructure we have and the driving distances are about right.
我认为电动汽车推广中最困难的部分是在城市环境中，停车位比较紧张，将新的电源连接到停车场和停车库更具挑战性。我认为第一波推广将在郊区发生，那里每个人都有双车库和足够的面板空间安装充电器，这是当下我们能做的全部，同时行驶距离也相对适中，顺应当前的基础设施和技术水平。
I actually I actually kind of think that that rural environments where you where there's plenty of space and you can just plug in you know even though the distances are longer you know I think like I think that if it's if you have your you have your F-150 your you know gas car and gas truck and then you have your you know your your car does run errands in and the fact that you don't have to buy gas anymore for that car like that that that pencils to me.
我其实认为，生活在乡村环境中，有大量的空间，即使距离更远，你也可以轻松到达目的地。如果你拥有自己的F-150或汽油卡车，以及跑腿用的车辆，而且你不再需要为后者购买汽油，这对我来说非常划算。
I mean even yeah I hate gas I absolutely hate it it's the worst. yeah yeah and even like gas prices are down right no gas prices are down for more they were a year or so ago when it was like six dollars a gallon and it's still but it's still four to four bucks a gallon where I live so like it's not pleasant you know no like but you know it's funny and not not the not the sound not the sound pretentious but like the actually the the prices is like is I'm less sensitive to that for me it's the the inconvenience if you know it's not on any of my roots unfortunately and you know you're home there's the kids you know this one is just one's crying this one is fooders on the earth whatever you're doing and it's like oh shit like I'm low on gas I got to run out so I make the best out of it you know whatever it's a it's a trip but the time that that I'm telling you it's that that does bother me no again in a year and a half the only four times that I view that I've that I've had to charge my car on you know in public charging is when I've forgotten to do it overnight like that's it you know it's other than that it's always like I always leave my garage full and I just drive past the gas station like kind of flip it off every time you know you know what I mean so like do we have wireless charges yet what is that gonna happen like you know you know you know no like honestly like I don't I've really I've there's like some company that's doing like little robotic arms to like kind of seek and plug the thing in I'm like what the fuck's the big deal you like you just take the thing and you just plug it in like how hard is that like seriously when you need robots to do this or wireless you are but if you would have told me that it's same thing for the iPhone I would have told you that it's not gonna happen it will happen it will absolutely happen
我的意思是，即使是加油这种东西，我也是厌恶的，我绝对讨厌它，它太糟糕了。是的，是的，即使汽油价格在下降，不，汽油价格比一年前更低，当时每加仑要六美元，现在尽管降低但在我住的地方仍然是四美元一加仑，所以不太愉悦，你知道的。但你知道，有趣的是并不是，不是为了显摆，但价格对我来说不是太敏感，对我来说更不方便，如果你知道的话。它不在我的线路上，不幸的是你在家里和孩子们在一起，你们做着各种事情，这个哭，那个饿，然后你突然意识到“哦，我加油不够了，我得去加油站”，所以我想要做最好的准备你知道的，就是去做这次旅行，究竟是怎么回事。这时，时常会困扰我，一年半来，我只是那么四次，我必须到公共场合去开车，找一个可以充电的地方。除此之外，我每时每刻都设法保持车库里充满电，而且每次经过加油站时，我都会蔑视地看一眼。你知道我的意思吗？我们已经有无线充电器了吗？这什么时候会发生？你知道吗？老实说，我真的不知道。有一些公司正在做小型机器臂，可以自动找到适合你的充电插头。但是这是多么困难的事情啊，只是拿出充电线然后插上去有什么难度吗？不需要机器人去做，也不需要无线充电器，但如果有人告诉我这种事情会发生在iPhone上，我也会说不可能实现，但是如今它肯定会发生。
I guess I just don't see like I feel like that's like one of those things like when you're not when you don't own an EV at you're like I don't want to remember to plug in and I don't have to like go and do that every time no first of all I don't you don't do it every day I do like plug it in every four days or five days or something like that and and just goes overnight and then I I'm done in the morning but it's just not like it's just not a thing you know like it's easy to change that habit and it's like way nicer than like you said go in the gas station so wait so you jump to the funny question which is I was gonna ask you what car you have you clearly drive at EV now now just here let me understand so when you started recurrent did you have an EV yet or not oh no no so no so I lived in Seattle at the time so yeah that coast of the lead comment hit a little close to home but so I lived in Seattle at the time no 1923 house no driveway no garage no off-street parking on my side of the street right so what's a single family home okay so that's the investor story that's the investor story yeah no so I so I had a we had we had we had just had the had the Subaru outback that we you know parked and and so I only got the I moved to Tacoma Washington a year and a half ago and I have a garage for the first time since high school so like yeah so I'm not like I can plug it in now so yeah that's one I got one
我想我并不认同那种想法，觉得记得插上电源这件事就像你没有一辆电动车一样，你可能会说我不想记得每次都要去插电或者做其他的事。首先，你并不需要每天去插电，我一般会每四到五天才去一次，而且只需要一晚上就能充满电了。这其实并不是什么难事，而且会很方便，比如你不需要去加油站，这样就很省事。等等，你刚才跳到一个有趣的问题，我想问一下你现在开什么车，你应该已经开电动车了，是吧？刚开始你开 Recurrent 的时候，有没有开电动车呢？噢，没有，我当时住在西雅图，住进去的是一栋建于 1923 年的房子，没有车道也没有车库，再加上我的那一边街道没有停车位，所以说我们只有一辆 Subaru Outback，只能停到路边。我2019年搬到了华盛顿州 Tacoma，这是我高中以来第一次有车库，所以现在我可以充电了，我的车是电动车。
and I'm over here thinking like I'm over here thinking about like the cognitive dissonance of of you know running a company like recurrent and not driving EV at the beginning at least but probably was like a funny time period but it was a funny story you know it's like you think like oh yeah this is a used EV company like oh he must have had this experience of buying an used EV and then and had a bad experience no I didn't like it just like I just saw how people are asking different questions in the industry wasn't answering them and I'm like that's gonna hold back the used market like that can't like somebody's got to fix that I'm like uh okay sure I can hold you're you're absolutely right I think that's one of the biggest apprehensions that dealers have it's a debattery so I think you're you're on the right track man
我不禁思考着，如果我经营的公司是Recurrent，却没有一开始就使用电动汽车，那么这将产生认知失调。但可能是一个有趣的时期，也是一个有趣的故事。你可能会认为，这是一个二手电动汽车公司，这个人一定有过购买二手电动汽车的经验，并且遭遇了糟糕的经历。但事实是，我并不是因为不喜欢它才这样做的，我只是看到了人们在这个行业里提出了不同的问题，并且没有得到答案。我认为这将阻碍二手市场的发展，必须有人来解决这个问题。因此，我接受了这个挑战，你是对的，我认为这是经销商最大的顾虑之一，也是二手电池的主要问题点。我认为你做得很对，你正走在正确的道路上。
I love I absolutely love what you're working on and you mentioned plug earlier so I mean tell us more like where for for consumers for for dealers for owners right I think anyone on this call that has any association with EVs in their life and whatsoever could benefit from the software that you guys have created so can you just tell us a little bit where we can find out more about it yeah for sure so our website is recurrent auto.com if you are an EV owner today and you're listening to this podcast you should come and sign your car up uh three uh you you we get some you get some nice battery metrics you know on a monthly basis and then when you go to sell your car you're gonna be able to sell for hundreds or thousands of dollars more like that's our value property there if you're a dealer like we can help you essentially help you both on the acquisition side you know um and on the retail side and that's working really well and we're start really starting to scale that business and then if you're shopper like like you you know sorry this is our dealers but you should be asking your dealer like hey you shouldn't buy one of these without without without without looking the repair report you're gonna get those questions a lot of leading dealers are working with us now we you can also see our stuff on Edmund so that's like the first third party market listings aggregator marketplace to uh to include that yeah so like every uh used DV um uh SRP and VDP uh on Edmunds now sort of like has recurrent range information they actually have a really cool map visualization that shows how far you can go from your home to like one way and round trip that's they've done a great job with it so like yeah my friends were on like yeah where where do I go to sort of like find uh used DV listings yeah I would send them there because they're they're doing it they're doing it really well they're the first ones
我真的非常喜欢你正在从事的工作，你之前提到了插头，所以能否详细介绍一下，对于消费者、经销商、车主来说，哪里可以使用这个软件呢？我认为，任何与电动汽车有关的人都可以从你们创建的软件中受益。你能告诉我们一些更多的信息吗？当然可以。我们的网站是recurrentauto.com。如果你是今天的电动汽车车主，并且正在收听这个播客，那么你应该来注册你的汽车。每个月，您会得到一些很好的电池指标，然后当你要卖车时，你将能够以数百或数千美元的价格出售。这是我们的价值所在。如果你是一个经销商，我们可以帮你在采购方面以及零售方面有所帮助，并且这已经取得了很好的效果，我们开始大力发展这个业务。如果你是一个购物者，你要问问你的经销商，你不能在没有查看维修报告的情况下购买一辆车。我们现在与众多领先的经销商合作，你也可以在Edmunds上看到我们的产品，这是第一个第三方市场清单聚合市场。他们提供了非常不错的地图可视化功能，可以显示你能够从家里出发的距离和往返路线，处理得非常好。所以，如果我的朋友问我在哪里可以找到二手电动汽车的列表，我会把他们引荐过去。
this is all off the record this is off the record or Harley you can keep this part on the record I've had a walnut stuck in my tooth this entire episode and I didn't want to stop Scott because he just had the groove going the flow going so that's what I've been dealing with this entire episode this is amazing this is like the most entertaining part of the I would actually lead with this could you do like the teaser where it's like yeah I've had this fucking walnut in my mouth we need we need to see your Scott you absolutely have to leave this in this is amazing
这都不是正式记录，哈利，你可以把这一部分记录下来。我一直卡着一颗核桃在我的牙齿里，因为我不想打断斯科特的状态，他现在正跑得飞快，所以我一直在这个问题上挣扎。这太神奇了，这是整个节目最有趣的地方，我实际上会以此开始。你能不能做一个预告片，就像这样：“是啊，我嘴里卡着这颗该死的核桃”，你必须保留这部分，斯科特。这太棒了！
uh let's do it maybe uh you should do like a spot do you have sponsorships on this podcast yet so we have a we have a pretty healthy wait list uh sponsorships are likely going to start over to next couple podcasts yeah first first sponsor the podcast the Walnut Growers Association of America there we go I love it okay so the question so back to the question right so back to the question
嗯，我们来做吧，也许你可以做一个广告，你的播客上已经有赞助商了吗？我们有一个相当健康的等待名单，赞助商可能会在接下来的几个播客开始。第一个赞助商是美国核桃种植协会，好了，我喜欢这个。那么回到问题上。
what have you changed your mind on in the last couple of years um I think that before I this is Evie related right is is it goes back to this charging thing like I thought um that just from the outside I thought that that long distance travel was like fine uh with with Evie's I don't think it is today in less year unless you're on the Tesla super charging network um and so I I would say like not only what I say to folks in northern climates like you know don't buy an Evie that doesn't have a heat pump like do it model wide do any of those Hyundai models there's a couple others that have heat pumps in there I'd say that pretty freely right now um good awful yeah and uh and then the second thing is I would say like you know before you like it like I would absolutely everybody out there should have one of it if they've got two cars they should have one car this Evie hands down it's great the less gas the whole thing um before you go and replace your second car though where you're going to do road trips with it I think either you got to be on a long range Tesla with the supercharger or you or you got to wait a couple years like before that the the bit until the rest of the charging network gets built out uh to really make it faster li uh faster reliable you know that's and there's a lot I think there's a lot that's gonna change a lot that's gonna change over the next couple of years but that's sort of where I'm at that is absolutely a good nugget and that's another thing I didn't know so that is great
你在过去几年里改变了哪些想法？我认为，在此之前，关于某些事情，比如充电问题，我曾认为电动车能够轻松地进行长距离旅行，但我现在认为除非你使用特斯拉的超级充电网络，否则电动车不适合进行长途旅行，这种情况在过去的一年中更为显著。我会建议人们，尤其是在北方气候的地区，不要购买没有热泵的电动车，例如有热泵的现代车型以及其他几种车型。我会毫不犹豫地这样说。 在那些必须要用第二辆车出行的情况下，在你替换第二辆车之前，请确保你已经拥有了一辆电动车，因为它非常棒，耗油量较低等等。但是在需要进行远足旅行的时候，你必须在特斯拉的长距离充电站或者等待几年，直至充电网络得到完善以便让电动车更加快速和可靠。我认为未来几年将会发生很多变化，但这是我目前的想法。这是一个很好的建议，我之前并不知道，真的很有用。
Scott thanks so much for coming on this was awesome had a ton of fun and learned a lot so appreciate it and uh I'm sure we'll do this again thank you guys really fun you're lucky that all done thanks all right hope you enjoyed that episode please give the podcast or rating consider subscribing to the show and check the show notes for links to what we talked about thanks for tuning in I'll see you guys next time
Scott，非常感谢你的到来，这真是太棒了，我们玩的很尽兴，也学到了很多东西，真的很感谢，而且我相信我们以后还会再做这样的节目的。谢谢大家，我们玩的很开心，你们很幸运，因为这一切都结束了。好了，希望你们喜欢这一集，请给这个播客打个评分，考虑订阅这个节目，并检查节目说明中的链接，感谢你们收听，下次再见！