What Is Tesla Doing With the Model 3? / Ford Earnings Call: A "Worrying Trend" ⚡️
发布时间 2023-05-04 05:18:10 来源
摘要
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00:00 - Cybervault
00:22 - Last Megapack from GF1NV
1:43 - What Is Tesla Doing with Model 3
5:34 - Future of Die Casting
5:55 - Samuel Garcia at Fremont
6:15 - Rumor on Purchase Increases
6:33 - Tesla Fun Fact
6:42 - Ford's Earnings
11:03 - Attempt to Repeal IRA
11:40 - Rivian R1S
12:00 - No Starlink Data Caps
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#TeslaModel3 #FordEarningsCall #TeslaNews
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Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Luma. So first up today, Todd Rogers, one of Tesla's maintenance techs said that the last Mega Pack has been built at Gig in Nevada, meaning going forward, all Mega Packs will be produced in laythrook, which of course is where they will have better margins, and perhaps more importantly, this should open up space and resources at Gig in Nevada for Tesla's semi-production and perhaps more 2170 cell production as well.
欢迎来到 Electrified，我是您的主持人 Dylan Luma。今天首先要说的是，特斯拉的维护技术人员 Todd Rogers 表示，兆瓦级电池组制造已经完成，这意味着未来所有兆瓦级电池组都将在莱斯瑟鲁克工厂生产，因为那里的利润更高，也更重要的是这将为特斯拉在内华达吉格工厂的半拖车生产以及更多的 2170 电池生产腾出空间和资源。
Just in case you're new, Tesla has laid out plans to invest about $3.5 billion to expand manufacturing capabilities at Gig in Nevada, specifically with plans to produce high volumes of the semi-truck and to make enough cell batteries for 2 million light duty vehicles every year in Gig in Nevada. As we were told, some of last year, Tesla would be phasing out the original Mega Pack called the MP1 and shifting to the newer MP2, but simultaneously they also mentioned the MP2 XL, which is what laythrook is producing now. And don't forget, we were told that the MP2 XL is actually cheaper to produce than the older MP1 system because they switched over to CATL's prismatic LFP cells, and they did tell us that Tesla would end the MP2 production by the first quarter of this year and only produce the MP2 XL thereafter, so going forward it sounds like only the Tesla Mega Pack 2 XL and all will be built in laythrook. That is of course only until Shanghai comes online.
如果你是新来的，特斯拉计划在内华达的Gig扩大制造能力，投资约35亿美元，具体计划是生产大量的半挂车和为Gig生产足够2百万辆轻型车所需的电池单元。我们被告知，去年特斯拉将逐步淘汰原始的Mega Pack (MP1) 并转向更新的MP2，同时他们也提到了MP2 XL，现在laythrook正在生产它。不要忘记，他们告诉我们MP2 XL的制造成本比较老的MP1系统要便宜，因为他们转向了CATL的棱柱形LFP电池，他们也告诉我们特斯拉将在今年第一季度结束MP2的生产，并且以后只生产MP2 XL，因此从现在开始，只有特斯拉的Mega Pack 2 XL将在laythrook建造，当然，直到上海工厂投产。
August of last year, the Model 3 long range was removed from the configurator Elon said the wait list was too long, will enable again as we ramp production. Well about 9 months later and finally the long range all wheel drive Model 3 is now available $47,240, 4,325 plus miles of range. I believe that plus is just an estimate because the official EPA range test has not been done. And a 0-60 time of 4.2 seconds, which is very good performance and typically the LFP packs that many are speculating is what this is are a bit slower than that so we'll come back to that in a second.
去年8月，Model 3长续航版被从配置器中去除了。埃隆说等待名单太长，会在我们扩大生产后重新启用。现在，大约9个月之后，长续航全轮驱动版Model 3终于推出，售价47,240美元，续航里程为4,325英里。我相信“+”只是一个估计值，因为官方的EPA续航测试尚未进行。而且0-60英里/小时加速时段只需4.2秒，这是非常出色的性能，通常被猜测为LFP电池组的许多都比这慢一些，所以我们稍后再回到这个问题。
And the current estimated delivery time frame is June where the other 2 Model 3 options are currently in May. Here's where the debate ensues though the Model 3 long range all wheel drive only qualifies for a $3750 federal tax credit or half of the full amount. So when it comes to Model 3 and Y eligibility we now have 2 Model 3 variants that are only half of the credit, the performance gets the full and then all Model Y variants get the full credit.
目前预计交货时间为六月，而其他两个Model 3选项目前在五月。然而在此处引发争议的是，Model 3长续航四驱版本仅符合3750美元的联邦税收抵免，仅为全额的一半。因此，在Model 3和Y的资格问题上，我们现在有两个仅享有一半抵免的Model 3版本，性能版享有全额抵免，而所有Model Y版本都享有全额抵免。
Look, I'm definitely not ready to be dogmatic about what sells are using what type of pack it is because it's just impossible to know for sure at this stage in my opinion. But either way let's just run through some things to consider. Again, that range number of 325 could ultimately be higher or lower so we can't draw too many conclusions until the official EPA number is out. And don't forget when the Model 3 long range was removed from the configurator in the summer of last year it was getting 358 miles of range and it cost $58,000 at the time. So could this car be using LFP cells from China which is why it would only get half the credit maybe but that would be a lot more range than the current rear wheel drive Model 3 that only gets 272 miles of range that is using those LFP cells.
看，我绝对还不想对使用什么类型的电池包进行武断的断言，因为在我看来，在这个阶段确切地知道肯定是不可能的。但无论如何，让我们来考虑一些事情。再说一遍，325的续航里程数字最终可能会更高或更低，所以在官方EPA数字出来之前，我们不能得出太多结论。而且不要忘记，当去年夏天Model 3长续航被从配置器中删除时，它能够行驶358英里的距离，当时的售价为58000美元。那么这辆车会不会使用来自中国的LFP电池，可能只会获得一半的积分，但是这将比目前仅能行驶272英里续航里程的后轮驱动Model 3使用这些LFP电池好很多。
As I said if it was LFP personally I would expect the performance 0 to 60 number to be a bit slower. Just keep in mind that variant before it was removed getting 358 miles of range using NCA or NCM cells you're really only supposed to charge up to 90% that gives us 90% usable which is actually 322 miles of usable range. Whereas if this car is using LFP cells you can charge to 100% all the time they encourage it which is again right around 325.
正如我之前所说，如果这辆车是使用LFP电池，我个人认为加速到60英里的表现可能会稍微慢一些。请记住，在此之前的那个版本使用NCA或NCM电池，它可以行驶358英里的里程，但您实际上只能充电到90%，这给我们提供了90%可用的里程，实际可行驶里程是322英里。但如果这辆车使用LFP电池，您可以一直充电到100％，而这差不多是325英里可行驶里程。
This pack could also be CATL's new M3P cells we've been hearing about but remember these are actually different than the LFP which is Lithium Iron Manganese phosphate. Just remember there are differences. Maybe the packs actually still using 2170 cells and the NCA or NCM chemistries but perhaps they're just being imported from a different country which again could be the reason why it's only getting half the credit. Tesla could also be varying the actual size of the pack which would throw all of our numbers and assumptions off so that just adds another layer of uncertainty. And then sadly the question still remains is how does the project Thailand Model 3 refresh fit into all of this. Hopefully we have answers by quarter three but do we get performance and spec upgrades or is it really just a design change?
这个电池组也可能是我们之前听到过的CATL的新M3P电池，但请记住，这些实际上与LFP（磷酸铁锰锂）不同。请记住它们之间存在差异。也许这些电池组实际上仍然是使用2170电池和NCA或NCM化学反应，但也许它们只是从不同的国家进口，这可能是它只获得一半信用的原因。特斯拉也可能在实际电池组的尺寸上进行变化，这将使我们所有的数字和假设都不确定，因此这又增加了另一层不确定性。然后，遗憾的是，问题仍然存在：泰国Model 3刷新项目如何适应所有这些变化。希望到第三季度我们能得到答案，但是我们会获得性能和规格升级，还是仅仅是设计变化？
I guess only time will tell. But honestly guys at the end of the day for the average consumer none of what I just talked about actually matters. The only thing that matters is that this vehicle which should be the best selling Model 3 variant is back available again which should mean very good things for Model 3 sales. I will add this variant is not available in Canada as of now.
我想只有时间能证明。但老实说，对于普通消费者，我刚才所说的一切其实都无关紧要。唯一要紧的是这款车应该是销量最好的Model 3版本，现在回来了，对于Model 3的销售来说应该是好消息。我要补充的是，目前这个版本在加拿大还不可用。
Figured it was a good time to mention from benchmark that the LFP cathode material in China fell to a 17 month low in the middle of April. The price of LFP cathodes in China has fallen 42% so far this year. Mainly driven by all of that new investment in LFP cell production last year now finally starting to come online.
在中旬的四月份，中国的LFP阴极材料降至17个月低点，我认为现在是提到这个基准的好时机了。中国的LFP阴极材料价格今年已经下跌了42%。这主要是由去年所有投资于LFP电池生产的新项目终于开始投入运营所推动的。
On LinkedIn Eidre also shared this image saying the future of die casting is not only gigapress this machine will produce electric motor rotors and it has the Tesla red color which means maybe this will be going to Tesla in the past Tesla has done die casting for other parts so it would not be a surprise at all.
在领英网上，Eidre分享了这张图片，表示压铸的未来不仅仅在于Gigapress这台设备，还能生产电动机转子，而且它也采用了特斯拉的标志性红色，这意味着或许它将被用于特斯拉的生产中。过去，特斯拉也曾对其它零件进行过压铸，因此这一点并不令人惊讶。
Samuel Garcia the governor of Nuevo Leon just tweeted out were acquiring the world's experience to make the most of the installation of the Tesla plant in Nuevo Leon. For this reason we visited its first plant, free month where the 4 car models are produced and already have 22,000 workers. However we are still waiting for the official green light for gigamexico.
萨缪尔·加西亚，新莱昂州州长刚刚在推特上表示，我们正在借鉴世界的经验，以在新莱昂州最大限度地利用特斯拉工厂的建设。为此，我们参观了其第一家工厂，这里生产了4种汽车型号，已经有22,000名工人。然而，我们仍在等待正式的Giga Mexico项目的绿灯。
Tried cautiously with this one I would paint it as a rumor for sure but a Chinese source said that the times finance learned from a Tesla store sales consultant in Beijing that the number of people ordering Tesla cars has increased significantly and the number of people buying after the price increase is up significantly.
小心谨慎地描述，我认为这只是一个传闻，但一位中国消息来源称，时代财经从北京一家特斯拉门店销售顾问那里得知，订购特斯拉汽车的人数显著增加，并且在涨价后购买的人数也大幅上升。
As Sawyer pointed out a cool Tesla fun fact Tesla is currently on average opening one new supercharger site globally every 13 hours.
正如索耶所指出的有趣的特斯拉事实，特斯拉目前平均每13个小时在全球范围内开设一个新的超级充电站。
A few quick notes from Ford's earnings release specifically for the model e-division which is their EVs. On the lower Q1 wholesale sales just remember F150 lightning production was down so they could fix some battery problems and the Machee production was down for a bit as they re-tooled the line so they could actually double the production capacity.
福特发布了关于其电动汽车部门模型E的收益公告，并针对以下几个方面进行了快速注释。关于第一季度的批发销售额下降，需要注意的是，F150闪电版的生产受到电池问题的影响而下降了，而Machee的生产也下降了一段时间，因为他们重新调整了生产线，以将生产能力提高一倍。
But when it comes to the earnings before interest in tax margin for the EV business it's negative 102% which just means that if Ford is selling an EV for $50,000 it's basically costing them over $100,000 to make it. Obviously that's not sustainable so the question becomes well what did Ford say about this going forward.
但是，就电动汽车业务的税前利润率而言，这个数字是负102％，这意味着如果福特销售一辆售价为50,000美元的电动汽车，它的制造成本实际上超过100,000美元。显然，这是不可持续的，因此问题就变成了，福特在未来会有什么说法。
On the call Ford said their on track this year toward a contribution margin approaching break even in the model e-division. Contribution margin is simple it's really just sales or revenue minus the variable costs. It really tells the company what specific product profitability is and how it changes based on revenue changes. So whatever is left over after removing those variable costs is then going to be there to actually cover the fixed costs.
福特公司在电话会议上表示，他们在电动车部门今年正朝着达到接近盈亏平衡的贡献边际的方向稳步前进。贡献边际很简单，实际上就是销售或收入减去变动成本。它真正告诉公司具体产品的盈利能力，以及随着收入变化会如何变化。因此，在扣除这些变动成本后剩余的资金将用于支付固定成本。
So Ford is expecting its Model e-business to bring in more revenue than at least the variable costs by this year and then for their first generation products like the Machee F-150 Lightning they're expecting those to be EBIT margin positive by the end of 2024.
福特计划在今年通过其Model e-business能够创造比至少可变成本更多的收入，并且对于其第一代产品，例如Machee F-150闪电版，他们希望在2024年底之前能够实现EBIT利润率为正。
So for Ford to go from negative 102% EBIT margin now to any positive number in the next less than two years would be a huge accomplishment color misceptical. Ford is just using that hypothetical $50,000 EV number right now it cost Ford $102,000 to make that car. So can they remove $52,000 in cost over the next less than two years? It's a big task.
福特现在EBIT毛利率为负102%，能在未来不到两年内实现正利润是一项巨大的成就，让人感到怀疑。福特目前只是以假设的50,000美元的电动汽车数字为基础，但实际上造这辆车的成本是102,000美元。因此，他们能否在未来不到两年的时间内，消减约52,000美元的成本呢？这是一项艰巨的任务。
They also said we expect Ford Model e-bid margin to improve to around negative 20% in the second half of this year. But here's the thing this primarily will be based on their ability to drive significantly higher sales volumes. Ford did say that through the end of this year they'll have reduced the bill of materials for the Machee by $5,000 per vehicle.
他们还表示，我们预计福特模特e竞标利润率在今年下半年将提高到约负20%。但这主要基于他们推动销售量显著提高的能力。福特确实表示，到今年年底，他们将每辆Machee的材料成本降低5000美元。
Ford has also said we're not going to price just to gain market share. We're quite different than maybe some of the peer EV players that are pricing just for growth. They said Ford's second generation is where they can really make hey. And they added we do not subscribe to a win vehicle share at any cost approach.
福特还表示，我们不会为了占领市场份额而定价。我们与其他可能为增长而定价的竞争对手非常不同。他们说福特的第二代产品是他们真正可以起飞的地方。他们还补充说，我们不会采取不惜一切成本的方式来赢得车辆份额。
There's a reason lately I've been talking about Tesla's captive financing and we get confirmation from Ford as they said we've seen a number of banks pulling back from auto lending and they don't see it getting a lot better over the coming months for banks.
最近我一直在谈论特斯拉的自营融资，而福特的言论证实了这一点。他们说我们看到了许多银行撤出汽车贷款市场，并不认为在未来几个月银行的情况会有很大改善。
And when it comes to cost reductions for the bill of materials Ford said we have a significant reduction in play on the lightning as well. So it'll be very interesting to see if Ford passes on those savings to the customer with lower F-150 lightning prices or will the Cybertruck entering the market blow that up and change the game.
在降低配件清单费用方面，福特表示，我们在闪电版上也大幅缩减了成本。因此，福特是否会通过降低F-150闪电版的价格向消费者传递这些节省，或者Cybertruck的进入市场会否改变这一局面，这是非常有趣的。
Farley again reiterated how he thinks the price cuts in the EV space is a worrying trend. Ford also waved the white flag when it comes to in-car entertainment saying that we kind of lost that battle 10 years ago and he was getting at how they're going to keep Apple CarPlay in its future vehicles. Sounds like right now Ford isn't even going to attempt to have its own in-car software UI.
法利再次强调他认为电动汽车领域的价格战是令人担忧的趋势。福特也放弃了车内娱乐方面的竞争，表示我们在10年前已经输掉了那场战斗，他的意思是他们将在未来的汽车中继续保留苹果的CarPlay系统。现在看来，福特甚至不会试图拥有自己的车载软件界面。
The biggest takeaway from all of this is what this will mean for the other legacy OEMs and their electric car divisions. No one else is really giving this level of transparency but we can expect the numbers to be in a similar realm not great right now. That's of course to be expected but as Morgan Stanley has been pointing out we'll now some of these legacy OEMs kind of pull back on their spending and the transition to EVs and opt to be more niche like players.
所有这些中最重要的收获是，这将对其他传统原始设备制造商（OEM）和他们的电动汽车部门意味着什么。没有其他人真正提供这种透明度，但我们可以预期数字处于类似的范围内，现在并不太好。当然，这是可以预料的，但正如摩根士丹利一直指出的，我们现在会看到一些传统的OEM公司会在支出和向电动车发展的转型方面有所退缩，并选择成为更具有专业特色的参与者。
Obviously being super selective and careful where they actually choose to compete as Ford just said they were going to do. That would of course be awesome for Tesla but as somebody who wants the EV transition to happen I'm not sure these numbers being public is going to expedite that process. And honestly right now none of the legacy OEMs have proven they can even make EVs at scale let alone do it affordably so there's still huge challenges to overcome.
明显地，福特公司刚才说他们会非常精心选择参与的竞争场所。对特斯拉来说，当然是一件好事。但作为希望电动汽车转型顺利推进的人，我不确定这些数字被公开会加快这个进程。而且，现在，传统的汽车制造商都还没有证明他们能够大规模生产电动汽车，更别说做到价格亲民了，所以仍然存在巨大的挑战需要克服。
You guys know I don't get political I'm not picking sides here or anything I'm just sharing the facts. I just wanted to put this on your radar that a new bill that did indeed pass the house the Limit Save Grow Act of 2023 would significantly scale back the federal support for renewable energy and energy storage that's been enabled by the inflation reduction act.
你们知道我不涉足政治，我没有站队，只是想分享事实。我想提醒大家，一项新的法案——2023年限制节能成长法案——已经在众议院通过，该法案将大幅减少由通货膨胀削减法案支持的可再生能源和能源储存的联邦援助。
Not only is this bill looking to pull back on all of the great things the IRA has done so far but it also would hope to increase investments in the country's fossil fuel sector. For what it's worth there are some lawyers out there saying at a federal level you can't unwind this this being the IRA.
这个法案不仅试图削减IRA已经取得的所有利益，还希望增加国家化石燃料领域的投资。有些律师认为在联邦层面上你不能取消IRA的计划。
Rivian has announced the official IIHS results for the R1S and it joins the R1T as winning the highest safety award for 2023 the top safety pick plus and this was after the standards and requirements were even harder to achieve as of this year so honestly great for Rivian.
Rivian宣布了R1S的官方IIHS结果，该车型与R1T一同获得了2023年的最高安全奖——TOP SAFETY PICK PLUS，并且在今年的标准和要求更加苛刻的情况下获得了该奖项，这对Rivian来说真的是太棒了。
In an email from Starlink to customers they said your subscription will remain unlimited and will no longer be deprioritized after one terabyte of data use. You can also now easily change your service plan on your account portal or the Starlink app and here are the four services available.
在Starlink发送给客户的电子邮件中，他们表示您的订阅将保持不受限制，并且在使用一TB数据后不再被降低优先级。现在您可以轻松地在账户门户或Starlink应用程序上更改服务计划，以下是四种可用服务。
You can find me on Twitter at DillonLumus22 hope you guys have a wonderful day please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
你可以在Twitter上找到我，我的用户名是DillonLumus22。希望大家有美好的一天，如果你们喜欢这个视频，请点赞。特别感谢我的Patreon支持者。