Central Banking 101 - Market Participants - Joseph Wang
发布时间 2023-05-04 03:48:05 来源
中英文字稿 
Hey everyone, this is Joseph and welcome to class 1. In this class, I will go over some of the major market participant types. This is really important because each market participant type has a different perception of the world.
大家好，我是约瑟夫，欢迎来到第一堂课。在这节课中，我将介绍一些主要的市场参与者类型。这非常重要，因为每种市场参与者类型对世界的看法都不同。
They have different business models, different constraints and they all have a big impact on pricing. So basically, if you're trading the market, it's very helpful to have an idea of who you might be trading against and how they think.
他们有不同的商业模式，不同的限制，这些都对定价产生巨大影响。因此，如果您在市场上进行交易，了解您可能与谁竞争以及他们的思维方式非常有帮助。
In this class, what I'll do is go over several major market participant types and for each market participant type, I'll briefly describe what the market participant is, how they behave and to add a little bit more color into their behavior, I'll go over a case study where we can see how they interact with the market.
在这门课上，我将介绍几种主要的市场参与者类型，对于每种市场参与者类型，我会简要描述市场参与者是什么，他们的行为方式，并加入一些案例研究，以更好地展示他们如何与市场互动。
The big takeaway I'd like you to have from this class is to understand that investors have different beliefs and constraints. So they buy and sell in the market for different reasons. Now this is really, really important because it's a little bit different than what we are often taught in school.
我希望这堂课可以带给你的最重要的一点是了解到投资者有不同的信仰和约束条件，因此他们在市场上以不同的原因买卖。这非常、非常重要，因为这与我们在学校中经常听到的略有不同。
When I was studying finance, for example, we would learn many different valuation models. A very common one could be, for example, the discount cash flow model where in evaluating an investment, I would try to forecast what a company would make for the next few years and then come up with a discount rate and discount those cash flows to the present to kind of have a sense of what the net present value would be and use that to inform my investment decision. Now, that's an interesting framework, but it might not be super useful when you're investing in the markets.
举例来说，当我学习金融学时，我们学习了很多不同的估值模型。一个非常常见的估值模型可能是贴现现金流模型，在评估一项投资时，我会尝试预测公司未来几年的收益，然后得出一个贴现率并将这些现金流贴现到现在，从而了解净现值会是多少，并使用这些来指导我的投资决策。现在，这是一个有趣的框架，但在投资市场上使用可能并不是特别有用。
The reason being that everyone approaches their investment process with either a different framework or they can even use the same framework and have different inputs. Now for example, let's say I find a company and I think it's a great company based upon my DCF model and I want to buy its stock.
原因是每个人都采用不同的框架来进行投资过程，即使使用相同的框架，其输入也可能会有所差异。例如，假设我使用DCF模型找到了一家我认为很棒的公司，并且想要购买它的股票。
Now when you are investing in the markets, the way that you make money is if that stock price goes higher. That means if other people go and they buy that stock as well. But the thing is many investors in the markets could be using other methods or other inputs, even if everyone was using the same DCF model for example, they could have different information that suggested them that maybe the company's outlook isn't so great or they could be more risk-averse and have a higher discount rate such that they don't feel the company is a very good value.
当你在市场投资时，赚钱的方式是股票价格上涨。这意味着其他人也会购买这支股票。但问题是市场上许多投资者可能使用其他方法或其他输入，即使每个人都使用相同的DCF模型，他们可能有不同的信息表明公司前景不太好，或者他们可能更加风险规避，设置更高的折现率，认为该公司价值不太好。
So using any valuation model itself isn't really going to tell you whether or not the price will go higher. You'd have to have some idea of how other people think about it. This also works in another way as well. If you're looking at market pricing, it's very difficult to infer based on that pricing itself what the market is saying.
因此，使用任何估值模型本身并不能告诉您价格是否会上涨。您必须了解其他人如何看待它才能确定。这种方法也适用于另一方面。如果您看市场定价，仅凭定价本身就很难推断市场在表达什么意思。
That again goes to the point that everyone approaches this with a different way. For example, post-Great Financial Crisis, the central banks have become major market participants and they're out there buying treasure securities and other credit risk free assets because they're trying to implement monetary policy. They're not even trying to make money. And yet if you're looking at, say, interest rates themselves and trying to infer some kind of economic condition from it, it'd be a little bit troubling because you have such a large amount of buying in that market, stemming from people who are not trying to make money and not trying to express an economic view, but simply trying to carry out their policy goals.
再次强调每个人的做法都有所差异。例如，在经历了大型金融危机之后，中央银行已成为主要的市场参与者，他们购买国库券和其他没有信贷风险的资产，因为他们试图实施货币政策。他们甚至没有试图盈利。然而，如果你看看利率本身并试图从中推断经济状况，可能会有些困惑，因为在这个市场上有如此多的购买，来自那些并不试图赚钱或表达经济观点，而只是试图实现他们的政策目标的人。
In the rest of this class, what I'll do is I'll walk through a number of different market participants' types and hopefully convey to you the idea that people buy and sell in the markets for wide range of reasons. It's very helpful to understand this because sometimes prices don't mean what you think they mean.
在接下来的课程中，我将介绍各种不同市场参与者的类型，并希望向你们传达这样一个想法：人们在市场上买卖的原因千差万别。了解这一点非常有帮助，因为有时价格并不意味着你所认为的意思。
Now the first major market participant type that I like to talk about is security zealers. Now security zealers are probably the most important market participant type that you've never heard of. If you're trying to buy or sell things that are not traded on exchange, for example government bonds or corporate bonds or foreign exchange or some kind of derivative, you actually have to trade through a dealer.
现在我想先讲一下我喜欢谈论的第一个主要市场参与者类型——证券交易商。证券交易商可能是你从未听说过的最重要的市场参与者类型。如果你想买卖在非交易所交易的东西，比如政府债券、公司债券、外汇或某种衍生品，你实际上必须通过交易商进行交易。
Now if I'm buying a stock, then oftentimes I'd go to my broker and my broker will route the order to an exchange. But if I were buying a government bond, I'd have to call up a dealer and then a dealer would quote me a price and I can accept or decline. Or if I had, say, $10 billion in treasuries that I wanted to sell, I'd have to also call up a dealer and the dealer would make me an offer.
现在，如果我买股票，通常会去找我的经纪人，然后我的经纪人会将订单路由到一个交易所。但如果我要买国债，我必须打电话给经销商，然后经销商会给我报价，我可以接受或拒绝。或者如果我有100亿美元的国库券想要出售，我也必须打电话给经销商，然后经销商会给我报价。
Dealers are kind of like huge pawn shops for financial products. What they do is they buy financial products from some of their clients, warehouse them, so hold them in their pawn shop, so to speak, until they can find another client to offload them to. They make money by buying low and selling high. That's their business motto. So it's important to note that they're not in the market to take any directional risk.
经销商有点像金融产品的巨大当铺。他们的工作是从他们的一些客户手中购买金融产品，储存在他们的当铺里，等待找到另一个客户将它们卖掉。他们通过低买高卖赚钱。这是他们的商业口号。因此，重要的是要注意，他们不参与市场方向风险。
So back to the example where I sell my dealer $10 billion worth of treasury securities. If my dealer were to buy it from me, he would take those treasury securities but hedge his exposure. So even if treasury is rallied or if they sold off, he wouldn't really be impacted by it. He makes money off the spread. So what he's trying to do is he's trying to buy it from me at one price and sell to another person at a slightly higher price. That's his business model.
回到我向经销商出售100亿美元国库证券的例子。如果我的经销商从我这里购买，他会拿走这些国库证券，但会避免风险。因此，即使国库证券上涨或下跌，他也不会受到太大影响。他从差价中赚钱。他的商业模式是从我这里以一个价格购买，然后以稍高的价格卖给另一个人。
Now in the chart on the bottom, what you can see is dealers are a pretty big part of the financial system. They have four and a half trillion dollars in assets. They are very much one of the main arteries of the financial system because of any big investor and any hedge fund wants to do, wants to go and buy a lot of stuff. They have to contact the dealers. But remember dealers are buying and selling to make markets, buying low and selling high. They're not expressing a view or they're not having any directional exposure.
在底部的图表中，你可以看到经销商占据了金融系统中相当大的一部分。他们拥有4.5万亿美元的资产。由于任何大型投资者和任何对冲基金都想要做的事情是去大量购买物品，所以他们非常是金融系统的主要动脉之一。但请记住，经销商是为了市场买卖而买卖资产，买低卖高。他们不表达任何观点或方向性风险。
So one interesting example that I like is what happened with the Gava squeeze in GME stock in January 2021 that really helps illustrate how dealers can impact market prices. So on the left, you see the stock price for GME, which is the ticker for GameStop. Now GME in January 2021, they was trading below $50 and it rocketed to as high as almost $350. Now if you were some kind of fundamental, more valued dream investor, you would look at this and be like, well, this is really weird. There's nothing changing in the market. The underlying business hasn't changed and yet the stock price is going higher.
我最喜欢的有趣例子是关于2021年1月Gava Squeeze对GME股票的影响，它真正帮助了解提供商如何影响市场价格。在左边，你可以看到GME股票的股价，它是GameStop的股票代码。在2021年1月，GME股票价值从低于50美元飙升到了将近350美元。如果你是某种基本的、更具价值的投资者，你会认为这真的很奇怪。这并没有改变市场和潜在的业务，但股票价格却在上涨。
The reason that the stock price is going higher obviously is because there's a lot of people buying it. And there's been a lot of studies about what went on here. One of the more well-known ones is a study done by what's called the ad hoc academic committee of equity and options market structure. So these is a group of people with industry and academia experience. They did a study and they suggested that what likely went on here is that the tremendous buying that drove GME stock from about $50 to $350 was actually hedging by dealers. So it really wasn't anyone very bullish on the future of GME. It was really just someone mechanically hedging.
股票价格上涨的原因显然是因为有很多人在买入。对此有许多研究。其中一项比较知名的研究是由所谓的股票市场和期权结构临时学术委员会进行的。这是一个由行业和学术经验丰富的人组成的团体。他们进行了研究，建议在这里发生的可能是GME股票从约50美元到350美元的巨大买入实际上是由交易商进行对冲。因此，实际上并没有人对GME的未来非常看好，而是纯粹机械性的对冲。
And let me give you an example. Let me flesh out how that might happen. Remember, if I want to make a trade oftentimes after a call up a dealer and at that time many investors saw this stock price of GME go higher and what they wanted to do is they wanted to short it. But they wanted to short it by buying put options. So they caught up their dealer and the dealer sold them put options. Now let's say for arguments sake, the dealer sold them some put options and in order to hedge dealers own exposure, the dealer sold short 100 shares of GME.
让我给你举个例子，让我具体说说会怎么发生。记住，如果我想要交易经常就会打电话给交易商，这时许多投资者看到GME的股价上涨，他们想做的是做空。但他们想通过购买购入期权进行做空。所以他们联系了交易商并购买了购入期权。现在假设，交易商为了对冲自己的风险敞口，卖空了100股GME股票。
Remember, dealers don't take any exposure, any directional risk. They're just trying to make money off the transaction. Just as a reminder, a put option is a derivative that becomes more valuable if the underlying stock price goes lower. So after selling the put option, the dealer is short of put. So if GME were to go down, the dealer would start losing money. And the dealer doesn't want to have that directional exposure. And so to protect itself, it needs to sell short GME stock. In this case, for the sake of this example, let's just say the dealers were short 100 shares of GME.
请记住，交易商不承担任何敞口或方向风险。他们只是试图从交易中赚钱。提醒一下，看跌期权是一种衍生品，如果基础股票价格下跌，它的价值会变得更有价值。因此，在出售看跌期权后，交易商会做空看跌期权。因此，如果GME价格下跌，交易商将开始亏损。交易商不希望承担方向风险。因此，为了保护自己，它需要做空GME股票。在这种情况下，为了举例说明，让我们假设交易商空仓了100股GME。
Now, what happened then was the stock continued to go higher. And when the stock continued to go higher, the dealers who were short say 100 shares of GME had to turn around and buy some of that stock back. They had pat to buy some of that back because the puts that they were short were no longer as valuable. As the price of GME stock went higher, the price, the value of the put options became less. And so the dealers did not have to short as many shares of GME to hedge that exposure.
当时发生的事情是，股票继续上涨。当股票继续上涨时，那些卖空 100 股 GME 的交易商不得不回头买回一些股票。他们必须买回一些股票，因为他们空头的看跌期权不再那么有价值。随着 GME 股票价格的上升，看跌期权的价格和价值也下降了。因此，交易商不需要卖空太多 GME 股票来对冲这种风险。
So say if they were short 100 shares, maybe they bought 25 back. And when they were buying shares back, that obviously influences the underlying price of GameStop, such that their price rises and they have to hedge less. So they buy more stock back. So at the end of the day, this dynamic, which many describe as a gamma squeeze, became a self-fulfilling cycle where dealers who were short the stock ended up buying it back, pushing the price higher and thus having to buy back even more. They were active in the markets, buying and selling, not because any view on the markets or all the stock, but simply because their business model demands that they hedge their exposure, that was one of the major drivers of that price.
如果他们短了100股，可能会买回25股。当他们买回股票时，这显然会影响GameStop的基础价格，导致它的价格上涨，使他们需要进行的对冲更少。所以他们会继续买入更多的股票。因此在一天的结束时，这种被许多人描述为伽马挤压的动态变成了一个自我实现的循环，这里卖空股票的交易员不得不买回它们，推高价格，因此不得不买回更多。他们在市场上活跃地买卖，不是因为对市场或整个股票有任何看法，而是因为他们的业务模式需要对冲他们的风险，这是价格的主要驱动力之一.
Remember, people buy and sell for different motivations. In this case, the dealers were simply participating because that was their business model to hedge their exposures. Now, the next major market participant type that I'd like to talk about are the pensions and life insurers. So just as brief as the description, pensions here, and I'm referring to the defined benefit pensions. A defined benefit pension is basically a pension program where they promise their beneficiaries upon retirement a set amount of benefits, say $10,000 a day.
请记住，人们购买和出售商品的动机是不同的。在这种情况下，交易商之所以参与，仅仅是因为这是他们的商业模式，以对冲他们的风险敞口。现在，我想谈谈下一个重要的市场参与者类型——养老金和寿险公司。简单来说，养老金是指受益人在退休后承诺一定数额的福利的养老金计划。比如说，承诺每天提供10000美元。
So if you are a worker at a company with a defined benefit pension, throughout your career for every paycheck, you'll pay a little bit into that pension fund. And when you retire, maybe they'll say give you $10,000 a month. Now life insurance is a little bit similar, your paying periodic payments to the insurer, and when you die, the insurer will pay your beneficiaries a lump sum amount of money. These two programs are similar because they have obligations that are far into the future.
如果你在一家提供确定性养老金的公司工作，那么你的每一份工资都会以一点点的方式缴纳到养老金基金中。当你退休时，或许他们会给你每月1万美元。现金价值保险也有些类似，你可以定期向保险公司缴纳保费，当你去世时，保险公司会给你的受益人支付一定数量的一次性金钱。这两种计划很相似，因为它们都有远期的义务。
For defined pensions, that's the retirement payments they have to make, and for life insurers, that is, the lump sum payments they make when the person with the life insurance contract passes away. Now if you're one of these investors, one of these businesses, and you want to be able to make sure that you have enough money to make those payments in the future, what you do is you'll make investments that are both safe and also long dated. So for example, what you would often do is you would purchase long dated government bonds as a way to hedge your exposure to these long dated liabilities.
对于固定养老金，这意味着他们必须制定的退休支付；对于人寿保险公司，这意味着当持有人去世时他们必须进行的一次性支付。如果你是其中一家企业或投资者，并且想确保未来有足够的资金支付这些款项，你会进行既安全又长期的投资。例如，你购买长期政府债券来对冲对这些长期负债的风险。
So if I'm a pension fund and I have to pay a bunch of money out in the future, let's say 30 years from now, what I'll often do is I'll take the money that I have now, I'll invest it and say 30 year government bonds. And that helps me be sure that in the future 30 years from now, I'll get money from the bond that I purchased just in time to pay the obligations that I promised. This is called asset liability management, and it's how these major investors interact with the markets.
假设我是一个养老基金，未来的30年内我需要支付一大笔资金，那么我通常会选择将我现在持有的资金投资于30年期政府债券。这样做有助于确保在未来的30年里，我可以从我购买的债券中获取资金，以便及时支付我所承诺的义务。这被称为资产负债管理，这也是这些主要投资者与市场互动的方式。
They're interested in part in what the review of the market is, but ultimately their investments are guided by their liabilities. They have long dated liabilities in the future, obligations they have to make. So they're needs to buy long dated assets to match those liabilities. You can see in this chart that they're both major, major players in the financial system. So life insurance companies have no around 10 trillion in assets and the defined benefit pension plans have around 17 trillion in assets. It's a very sizable sum.
他们对市场的评论感兴趣，但最终他们的投资是由他们的负债指导的。他们在未来有着长期的负债和义务。因此，他们需要购买长期资产来匹配这些负债。从这个图表中可以看出，他们都是金融体系中的重要玩家。因此，寿险公司拥有约10万亿的资产，而确定福利养老金计划拥有约17万亿的资产。这是一个非常可观的数目。
In this next example, what we'll look at is how these life insurance companies directly impact the markets through their investment strategy. A very good example of this is what happened with the UK pension inform in 2004. In 2004, the UK government was concerned that some of their pension funds may not be properly funded. That is to say, maybe in the future, some of their beneficiaries may not be receiving all the money that was promised to them. So in order to make sure that the pension funds were well funded, they passed a law that forced all the pensions to be well funded.
在下一个例子中，我们将看到寿险公司通过其投资策略直接影响市场。一个很好的例子就是2004年英国养老金改革。当时，英国政府担心他们的一些养老基金可能没有得到充分的资金支持。也就是说，未来可能有一些受益人无法收到承诺的全部金额。为了确保养老基金得到充分资金支持，政府通过了一项法律强制要求所有养老金都得到充分资金支持。
And if they didn't, they would have to be fined. Now the pension funds, they did not want to be fined. And so they wanted to make sure that they were properly funded. Under the pension fund reform law, that meant that the UK government would basically discount the liabilities of the pension funds and made it wanted to make sure that the assets when discounted to the present were also able to meet them, meet the liabilities. The easiest way that pension funds could do this was to buy longer-dead bonds.
如果他们没有这样做，他们就必须交罚款。因此，退休金基金不想被罚款。因此，他们想确保自己得到适当的资金支持。根据退休金基金改革法，这意味着英国政府基本上会减免退休金基金的负债，并确保其在折扣到当前时的资产也能够满足负债。退休金基金能够最简单地做到这一点的方法是购买较长期的债券。
And so since the passage of that reform, if you look at the chart, the UK pension funds became net sellers of equities, a sort of bunch of equities, and became large net buyers of longer term bonds. On the right, you can see the direct impact on pricing of this. Now this tremendous amount of demand from the UK pension funds pushed longer-dead bonds. Here you can see the black line being the bond maturing in 2055 pushed it down so that the curve was inverted. That means longer-dead yields trading below shorter-dead yields.
自从那项改革通过以来，如果你看一下图表，英国养老金基金会成为了股票的净卖方，转而成为长期债券的大买家。右侧的图表展示了这种做法对价格的直接影响。英国养老金基金会巨大的需求推动了长期债券的需求。你可以看到黑线表示2055年到期的债券，其价格被推低，以至于收益率曲线发生了反转。这意味着，长期债券的收益率低于短期债券的收益率。
So the 2009 bond at the time was trading at yields that were higher than the longer-dead 2055 bonds, and part of that seems to be due to the enormous amount of buying from the UK pension funds, so much so that they actually asked the UK government to issue more longer-dead debt, which the UK government did. Now this is an interesting example because when you think about, let's say, the sheep of the year curve or longer-dead yields, people often look at this and try to assign it some kind of economic interpretation where, let's say, the market is trying to tell you something, but in this case, it seems clear that at least part of the reason is simply because there was a change in regulation forcing some market participants to buy more longer-dead bonds. It was not a signal of any economic weakness or anything. It was simply because there were more buyers. Remember, market prices are just supply and demand, and this regulation pension reform stirred up a lot of buyers.
在2009年，当时的债券收益率比长期到期的2055年债券高，其中一部分原因是来自英国养老基金的大量购买，以至于他们实际上要求英国政府发行更多长期到期的债券，英国政府也确实这样做了。现在这是一个有趣的例子，因为当你考虑年度曲线或长期收益率时，人们经常试图赋予它某种经济解释，比如说市场试图告诉你一些什么，但在这种情况下，看起来很明显，至少部分原因仅仅是因为有一项监管变化，强迫某些市场参与者购买更多的长期债券。它并不是任何经济上的弱点信号或者其他什么，仅仅是因为有更多的买家。请记住，市场价格仅仅是供求关系，这项养老金改革调动了很多买家。
The next type of investors I like to go over are the foreign investors. So foreign investors are very active in US markets. So on the chart, you can see the foreign participation in some of the major US asset classes. You have treasuries, agencies which are largely agency mortgage-backed securities, corporate debt, and equities. You can see that the foreign participation in each of these categories are significant, but you also notice another thing as well. Now, the foreign investors are broken down in this chart by foreign private investors and foreign official investors. Foreign official investors refer to foreign central banks and governments and foreign private investors refer to private sector foreigners. One big difference you'll note is that foreign official sectors tend to invest a lot in treasuries and agency debt because those are credit-risk-free and foreign official sector investors tend to be risk-reverse. Whereas the private sector tends to invest in risk-earned assets like corporate debt and equities.
我接下来要谈的投资者类型是外国投资者。外国投资者在美国市场活跃。在图表上可以看到外国投资者参与了美国主要资产类别中的某些部分，包括国债、代理机构（主要是代理抵押证券）、公司债券和股票。可以看到，外国投资者在每个类别中的参与度都很大，但你还会注意到另一个情况。在这个图表中，外国投资者分为外国私人投资者和外国官方投资者。外国官方投资者指的是外国央行和政府，而外国私人投资者则指的是私人部门的外国人。你会注意到一个很大的区别是，外国官方部门往往投资于国债和代理机构债务，因为这些是无信用风险的，而外国官方部门投资者倾向于回避风险。而私人部门则倾向于投资于风险收益较高的资产，比如公司债券和股票。
So foreigners have a lot of dollars to invest in part because the US runs a chronic current account deficit. So year after year, the US is buying more goods and services abroad than in exports. This means that foreigners end up with a lot of dollars that they usually reinvest into US assets. However, that's not the only reason there's a lot of foreigners investing in the US. The US is a country that over the past few decades has had strong economic growth, has rule of law. It's relatively insulated from the rest of the world and it has very deep and liquid capital markets. So it's a good place to invest or at least have some exposure to.
外国人之所以有很多美元可供投资，部分原因是美国一直存在经常账户逆差。每年，美国都要从国外购买更多的商品和服务，而出口商品较少。这意味着，外国人最终会拥有很多美元，通常会将它们重新投资到美国资产中。 然而，这并不是外国人在美国进行大量投资的唯一原因。过去几十年来，美国经济增长强劲，法治健全。它相对来说与世界其他地区隔绝，并拥有非常深厚和流动性强的资本市场。因此，它是一个不错的投资地方，至少可以在一定程度上获得一些收益。
In the next few slides, I'll talk a little bit more about the foreign official sector in particular. The foreign official sector, as we saw earlier, invests in very conservative dollar assets, mostly credit risk-free assets like Treasury's and agency MBS. The foreign official sector behaves differently from private sectors because they're not really trying to make money. Now globally, the US dollar is the reserve currency. And when thinking about foreign official investors, I think it's helpful to first have an idea as to why these people might be investing dollars.
在接下来的幾張幻燈片中，我將更詳細地談論外國官方部門。正如我們之前看到的那樣，外國官方部門投資於非常保守的美元資產，主要是像國債和機構抵押證券這樣的免信用風險的資產。外國官方部門行為不同於私人部門，因為他們並不是真的在賺錢。全球而言，美元是儲備貨幣。當考慮外國官方投資者時，我認為首先需要想到的是這些人為什麼要投資美元。
Now if you are a foreign government, usually you want to keep a rainy day fund just to be able to help out your businesses or support your currency. Let's say for example that one day your currency becomes very, very weak and that's hurting your businesses. If you had a stash of dollars, what you could do is you could sell the dollars and buy back your own domestic currency that would strengthen your domestic currency and maybe help out some of your businesses. Or let's say that some of your businesses have need of emergency dollars. If you had a rainy day fund of dollars, what you could do is you could take those dollars and you could lend them to your businesses. So if you're a foreign government, what you really care about when you invest your rainy day fund isn't that it makes a lot of money, but that it's there when you need it.
如果您是外国政府，通常会想要建立一笔备用资金，以便能够帮助您的企业或支持您的货币。比方说，有一天您的货币变得非常非常弱，这损害了您的企业。如果您有一些美元资金，您可以卖掉这些美元并购买回您自己的本国货币，这将加强您的国内货币，并可能帮助您的一些企业。或者，假设您的一些企业需要紧急资金，如果您有一笔备用美元，您可以将这些美元借给您的企业。因此，如果您是外国政府，当您投资备用资金时，您真正关心的不是它能赚到很多钱，而是在您需要时它会在那里。
So what you really care about is safety and liquidity. And in practice, that means treasury securities, so debt issued by the government or agency securities, that is to say debt indirectly guaranteed by the US government. And that's as we see what these foreign central banks, foreign governments largely invest in. On the right, you have a breakdown of foreign exchange reserves globally by the IMF. And one thing you'll note is that among the foreign exchange reserves, the US dollar plays a very big role. And that has to do with the fact that the US dollar is the world's reserve currency. This trade is in the US dollars and most ethics transactions are in US dollars as well. So if you are a foreign government, what you really need to have reserves up, what you really need to have a rainy day fund of is dollars more so than the other currency. And that's reflected there.
所以，你真正关心的是安全性和流动性。实践中，这意味着国库证券，也就是政府发行的债务或间接由美国政府担保的机构证券。这也是为什么我们看到这些外国中央银行和外国政府主要投资的是这些证券。在右边，您可以看到IMF列出的全球外汇储备的分部情况。其中一个值得注意的事情是，在外汇储备中，美元扮演了非常重要的角色。这与美元是世界储备货币有关。这种交易以美元进行，大多数伦理学交易也是以美元进行的。因此，如果您是外国政府，您真正需要储备的是美元资金，而不是其他货币。这一点在那里反映出来。
This is a great example of how foreign governments use their rainy day dollar funds. So on the blue line here, what you see is that's the nominal US dollar index. So when the blue line is going higher, that means the dollar is strengthening. On the red line, that's the amount of treasury securities that foreign governments hold at the New York Fed. So if you are a foreign government and you own treasury securities, what you usually do is you store them at the Federal Reserve.
这是一个很好的例子，说明外国政府如何使用其备用美元基金。在这里，蓝线代表名义美元指数。当蓝线上升时，意味着美元正在加强。红线代表外国政府在纽约联邦储备银行持有的国库券数量。因此，如果你是一个外国政府并且拥有国库券，通常会将其存放在联邦储备银行。
Since the Federal Reserve is a credit-risk free counterparty. So you know that these two lines look somewhat in the opposite of each other. So when the blue line goes higher, that is when the dollar is strengthening, it looks like treasury holdings of foreign central banks decline. That relationship is largely because that when the dollar strengthens, that causes trouble for a lot of countries. And what they do is they try to find ways to weaken the dollar and strengthen their own currency.
由于联邦储备是一个无信用风险的交易对手。因此，您知道这两条线看起来有些相反。因此，当蓝线上升时，即美元升值时，似乎外国中央银行的国库持有量会下降。这种关系主要是因为当美元升值时，这会给许多国家带来麻烦。他们会尝试找到方法削弱美元并加强自己的货币。
So what they do then when the dollar is strong against their currency is that they sell dollars and buy their own currency. So where do they get the dollars? Well they have to go to the New York Fed, take the chargeories that they have on store the New York Fed, sell them, take the dollars, then sell the dollars for their own currency. So that is why that when the dollar is strengthening, you see that the amount of treasury is held at the New York Fed that belongs to foreign central banks declines.
当美元对他们的货币汇率升值时，国外中央银行会卖掉美元并购买自己的货币。那么他们从哪里得到美元呢？他们需要去纽约联邦储备银行获取存储在那里的债券，出售这些债券，换取美元，再将美元卖出获取自己的货币。所以当美元升值时，你会发现外国中央银行在纽约联邦储备银行持有的国债数量会减少。
That's foreign exchange intervention. And again, these are public sector actors trying to intervene and directly affect market pricing. From these examples, you can see that it does seem to have an impact on the dollar by making it weaker. And also, I have to imagine that if foreign central banks are selling their treasuries, it probably has an impact on treasury prices as well.
这就是外汇干预。再次强调，这些是由公共部门参与者试图干预市场价格。从这些例子中，可以看出它似乎对美元产生了削弱的影响。并且，我想象一下，如果外国中央银行正在出售其国债，这可能也会对国债价格产生影响。
Now, this is just buying and selling from official sector entities implementing their policy without any reference to underlying fundamentals or economic conditions. The next example are Japanese life insurers. Now, this example ties in our foreign investor type as well as our life insurer investor type. Remember from a few slides back, life insurers look for longer dated assets to match their longer dated liabilities.
现在，这只是官方部门实施其政策进行买卖，与基础基本面或经济条件没有任何关系。下一个示例是日本寿险公司。现在，这个示例涉及到我们的外国投资者类型以及我们的寿险投资者类型。记得从前几张幻灯片中，寿险公司寻找长期资产来匹配其长期负债。
On the left here, you can see that the US 10 year treasury, which is the blue line, has been solely trending lower and then it went higher. It's been around, let's say, 2 to 3% for most of the past 20 years. Now during that time, many investors were marveling how anyone would be investing in US treasuries when they're basically yielding nothing after taking into account inflation. However, there were many investors in US treasury securities.
左侧图表显示美国10年期国债（蓝线）一直处于下降趋势，但后来上升了。在过去的20年中，该国债在2-3%之间波动，因此许多投资者对于为什么有人会投资美国国债感到惊讶，因为考虑通货膨胀后实际收益率几乎为零。尽管如此，仍有许多投资者选择持有美国国债。
And on the right here, you can see that the Japanese life insurers were becoming increasingly interested in foreign bonds. And the reason for that is if you look at the red line, you can see that the Japanese tenure, the tenure JGB was yielding much less than the US tenure treasury. So what looked like a very poor investment to US based investors was actually looking like a pretty good deal for many foreign based investors.
在这里的右边，你可以看到日本寿险公司越来越对外债券产生兴趣。原因就在于，如果你看红线，你会发现日本10年期国债的收益率远低于美国10年期国债。所以对于美国的投资者来说看起来是一个很差的投资，但对于许多基于国外的投资者来说，其实是一个相当不错的交易。
Again, people buy and sell for different reasons. They have different constraints and different goals. The Japanese life insurers were looking for long dated assets. They found what something that were better than what they can get at home and they started to buy more of it. Now, another thing to keep in mind is that when you're a foreign investor purchasing US assets, oftentimes what you do is you hedge out the currency risk.
人们进行买卖有不同的原因，他们有不同的限制和不同的目标。日本寿险公司正在寻找长期的资产。他们发现了比国内更好的资产，并开始增加购买量。现在需要注意的是，如果你是一个外国投资者购买美国资产，通常会对货币风险进行对冲。
So if you look at the second chart on the right, you'll see that the life insurers do actually hedge out a portion of their currency risk. Not everything, but let's say most of it. That affects their returns as well. So that's something to keep in mind. For most of this period, it still made sense to them on an FX hedge basis.
如果你看右边的第二张图表，你会看到人寿保险公司确实对他们的货币风险进行了部分对冲。虽然不是全部，但是基本都对冲了。这也会影响到他们的回报。所以这是需要记住的一点。在大多数情况下，对他们而言，在汇兑对冲的基础上进行这个操作仍然是有意义的。
However, one other thing that I note is that when you're a foreign investor, sometimes you actually do want to have a little bit of foreign exchange risk. Because if you're a Japanese investor and you're purchasing US assets and then the dollar rallies, you're basically getting a double play. You're making money on the treasury side on the interest rate and you're also making money because the dollar appreciated. So that's another thing to keep in mind too. Sometimes foreigners are in purchasing US assets because one, it's better than what they get at home, even if it looks unattractive to a US based investor. And two, maybe they're not so much associated in the asset, but they're trying to make FX currency play thinking that the dollar would appreciate.
然而，我注意到的另一件事是，作为外国投资者，有时你实际上想承担一点外汇风险。因为如果你是日本投资者，购买美国资产，如果美元升值，你就可以获得双重利润。你既能从利率方面赚钱，也能从美元升值中获利。这也是需要记住的另一点。有时外国人购买美国资产是因为，一是比国内更有吸引力，即使对于美国投资者来说可能不太吸引；二是他们可能并不太关心资产本身，而是想进行外汇交易，认为美元会升值。
And if they did that for 2022, when the dollar was appreciating significantly against the yen, they would have done very well as an investor.
如果他们在2022年这样做，当美元对日元的升值非常明显时，他们会成为非常成功的投资者。该句话的意思是，如果在2022年的时候，利用美元相对于日元的升值趋势进行投资，那么将会获得不错的收益。
The next market participant type I'd like to discuss are the hedge funds. Now the hedge funds are difficult groups to discuss because they're also different.
我接下来要讨论的市场参与者类型是对冲基金。对冲基金是非常不同的群体，所以讨论起来比较困难。
Now in this chart, you can look at the performances you're today in 2022 for a wide range of hedge funds strategies. Or every box here is a different strategy and you can note that there's a whole lot of them.
现在在这张图表中，您可以查看各种对冲基金策略在今天到2022年的表现。每个方格都代表一种不同的策略，您会发现这里有很多种策略。
You have your long shorts, which is what else slash S means. You have glue and macro. You have CTAs and you have event-driven funds or quant funds and so forth. There's a lot of variation here.
你有你的长短裤，这也是其他斜杠S的意思。你有胶水和宏。你有CTAs和事件驱动型基金或量化型基金等等。这里有很多的变化。
【简要翻译】本句话涉及到一些专业术语，但简单来说，讲述了在投资领域有许多不同的选择和可能性。
I'll briefly describe some of the major strategy types that you will encounter. Of course, the most basic one is the traditional long short, fundamental based, so you have a hedge fund, perform some kind of valuation analysis on investment and goes to buy it or sell it depending on what it thinks the how good it thinks investment is.
我将简要描述一些你可能会遇到的主要策略类型。当然，最基本的是传统的多空基本面类型，这样你就有一个对冲基金，对投资进行一些估值分析，然后根据它认为投资有多好来购买或出售。
The strategies are event-driven strategies where they're not so much focused on the underlying fundamentals but they're thinking that there might be some kind of corporate event that will be a catalyst in moving prices. It could be that they see a company and they think it's a prime takeover target and they invest in that company with the theory that this company is eventually going to be bought out from a bigger company and thus make them a lot of money.
这些策略是事件驱动的策略，它们并不太关注基本面，而是认为可能会有某种企业事件成为推动价格变动的催化剂。有可能他们看到一个公司，认为它是一个最佳的收购目标，就投资于这个公司，理论上认为这家公司最终会被一个更大的公司收购，从而赚取大量的钱。
Or they could be speculating that it would go bankrupt or sell short or they can be thinking that two companies are about to merge. They can buy one company and sell the other thinking that at the end of the day they'd be able to harvest some kind of premium. Quantitative funds are more data-driven so what they'll often do is they'll try to find out statistical relationships between two asset prices and try to assume that those statistical relationships will persist and then benefit from them.
他们可能在猜测这家公司会破产或卖出空头，或者他们认为这两家公司即将合并。他们可以购买一家公司并出售另一家公司，认为在一天结束时他们能够获得某种买入溢价。量化基金更注重数据，因此他们经常尝试找出两种资产价格之间的统计关系，并尝试假设这些统计关系会持续存在并从中获利。
For example, just as an example, let's say someone found out there was a statistical relationship between price of copper and the price of gold. Well, if they had some kind of quantitative model trying to estimate the relationship between the two, then when the relationship widens and their model suggests that it's going to close again, then they could put on a trade to take advantage of that convergence. CTAs are called commodity trading advisors and what they are is they are basically trend following, which is to say momentum. They mostly trade in commodities and futures.
举个例子，假设有人发现铜价和黄金价格存在统计关系。如果他们有某种量化模型来估计两者之间的关系，当这种关系扩大时，他们的模型会提醒它将再次收敛，则他们可以开展交易以利用此收敛。CTA被称为商品交易顾问，他们主要做趋势追踪（也就是动量），主要交易商品和期货。
So what they'll do is that if something is going higher, they're basically buy it and if something is going lower, they'll sell it. They'll follow the trends. And strangely, this actually works, empirically it works pretty well. And lastly, we have macro funds and there are of course, there are many other strategies. A macro fund would be investment fund that tries to make investments based upon global developments such as centrobake actions or political developments and so forth.
因此，他们的做法是，如果某个东西相对上涨，他们基本上会购买它，而如果某个东西相对下跌，他们会卖出它。他们会跟随趋势。奇怪的是，这种方法实际上是有效的，实证上效果相当不错。最后，我们有宏观基金，当然，还有很多其他策略。宏观基金是一种投资基金，其基于全球发展（例如央行操作或政治发展）进行投资。
They trade in a wide range of asset classes and around the world. So these are just some ideas of what hedge funds invest in. It's such a large and motley group, it's difficult to generalize.
他们交易于世界范围内的广泛资产类别。以上仅是对避险基金投资的一些想法。它们是如此庞大和混杂的一群，很难概括。
But what is important to note is that they have a pretty big impact on market prices from a day to day standpoint, simply because they are such active investors. The chart shows that hedge funds, their total financial assets are about two and a half trillion.
需要注意的是，对于市场价格而言，这些对冲基金在日常投资中产生了相当大的影响，因为它们是如此活跃的投资者。图表显示，对冲基金的总财务资产约为2.5万亿美元。
Now, you'll know that that's a lot smaller than let's say the pension funds and the life insurance and so forth, but this really understates their impact because hedge funds often employ a lot of leverage. So their actual impact on market pricing could be a lot higher than what you see in, let's say, cash only investors. And also because they're so opportunistic, treating in and out every day, they have a pretty big impact on day-to-day market pricing.
现在，你会知道对比养老基金和人寿保险等，对冲基金规模要小得多，但这实际上低估了它们的影响，因为对冲基金通常使用很多杠杆。因此，他们对市场定价的实际影响可能比纯现金投资者要高得多。而且因为他们非常机会主义，每天都在进出，他们对日常市场定价有相当大的影响。
But it's just not clear in which way they influence prices because as we suggested earlier, they employ a whole different kinds of strategies and oftentimes they trade against each other. So it's not clear to actually have some kind of buy-assess to how they would shape prices.
但是它们影响价格的方式并不清楚，因为正如我们之前提到的，它们采用完全不同的策略，往往彼此对冲交易。因此，不清楚实际上如何对它们塑造价格进行某种购买评估。
In this example, I'll go over one of the more popular hedge fund trades that was actually having a big impact on prices a couple years ago. So this is called the cash futures basis trade. Now, as many of you know, the US government has a tremendous deficit and it's issuing a lot of churches all the time.
在这个例子中，我将讲解一种比较流行的对冲基金交易，它在几年前对价格产生了重大影响。这个交易被称为现金期货基差交易。现在，正如你们许多人所知道的那样，美国政府有一个巨大的赤字，并且一直在不断发行债券。
And it's often wondered just who was buying all these trades recent. In the past few slides, we pointed out some participants like Japanese life insurers. But for the couple years before 2020, the largest marginal purchaser of trades was actually the hedge fund community to the tune of a few hundred billion dollars. And that's what you see on the chart on the left.
人们常常想知道最近是谁在买入所有这些贸易。在过去几张幻灯片中，我们指出了一些参与者，如日本人寿保险公司。但在2020年之前的几年中，实际上最大的交易边际购买者是对冲基金社区，数百亿美元的规模。这就是您在左侧的图表中看到的。
You see that it was estimated that US-based hedge funds were increased their exposure in treasury holdings from 600 billion to 1.1 trillion. The thing is, they were not purchasing these treasuries because they had any view of inflation or economic growth or anything. They were purchasing these cash treasuries as part of a cash futures basis trade.
你可以看到，据估计，总部位于美国的对冲基金的国债持有量从6000亿美元增加到1.1万亿美元。问题在于，他们购买这些国债并非因为对通胀或经济增长等任何因素的看法。他们之所以购买这些现金国债，是作为现金期货基础交易的一部分。
What that is is that the hedge fund is trying to exploit pricing differences between the cash treasuries and the treasury futures. Let's say for example, they would buy the cash treasuries and then they would sell short a futures contract of treasury futures. They would hold the two trades until they're too converged and try to harvest the difference between the pricing in the cash market and the pricing in the futures market.
这就意味着对冲基金正试图利用现金国债和国债期货之间的价格差异。例如，他们会购买现金国债，然后卖空一个国债期货合约。他们将持有这两笔交易直到它们趋于一致，并尝试收割现金市场和期货市场价格之间的差异。
And you can see that on the right as well. So on the right, you can see that the hedge funds significantly increased their short your treasury futures at the same time as they increased their long treasury cash positions. Again, they're just harvesting the pricing inefficiencies between these two products, derivatives and the cash market.
你也可以看到右边的情况。在右边，你可以看到对冲基金在增加他们的现金市场长期国债头寸的同时，显著增加了他们的负向期货头寸。同样地，他们只是在利用这两种产品之间的定价不合理性来获取收益，这两种产品分别是衍生品和现金市场。
Without any view on pricing or growth. So looking at this, it's clear that when people buy treasuries, they have different motivations for doing so beyond, especially in the fundamental view. And if you were to look at, let's say, subdue treasury yields, you know, you wouldn't really know if it was because it was part of a hedge for another trade, say the cash futures basis or because they were trying to say that economic growth is going to be slow for the coming years.
没有任何关于价格或增长的看法。因此，可以清楚地看出，当人们购买国债时，他们有不同的动机去做这件事，除了基本的看法之外。如果你看一下低收益的国债，你不会知道它是因为它是另一个交易的对冲，比如现金期货基础，还是因为他们试图表达经济增长在未来几年将放缓。
So the next market Bertram type, I'll talk about are the commercial banks. So the commercial banks, they make loans and they are more involved in the real economy than the financial economy. So let's say they go when they give a homeowner a mortgage or they give a small business alone so that the small business can continue to pay their employees.
下一个我要讲的Bertram类型的市场是商业银行。商业银行提供贷款，更多地涉及实体经济而非金融经济。也就是说，当商业银行为房主提供抵押贷款或为小企业提供贷款，并使小企业能够继续支付员工薪水时，它们会介入实体经济。
But it wasn't actually always like this. There was a time when the commercial banks were very involved in financial markets. In the graph on the bottom, you can see that the blue line are the amount of securities that the commercial banks were purchasing. Heading into the great financial crisis, the blue line was accelerating. And that was because that commercial banks were becoming more interested in participating in the booming financial economy.
但实际上并非总是这样。曾经有一段时间，商业银行在金融市场中发挥着很大的作用。在底部的图表中，你可以看到蓝线代表商业银行购买的证券数量。在迎来大型金融危机之前，蓝线正在加速增长。这是因为商业银行对参与蓬勃发展的金融经济越来越感兴趣。
And then that all stopped in 2008 during the Jake financial crisis, the series of great crisis in the commercial banking sector and thereafter regulations that were meant to make the commercial banks safer placed big limits on what the commercial banks could buy. And those limits basically did two things. They constrained the appetite for commercial banks to buy riskier financial securities. And they also encouraged them to buy financial securities that are credit risk-free like treasuries and agencies.
接着，在2008年的杰克金融危机期间，商业银行业经历了一系列的严重危机，此后，为了使商业银行更加安全，出台了一系列规定，对商业银行的购买行为进行了限制。这些限制基本上有两个方面的影响。它们限制了商业银行购买高风险金融证券的欲望。同时，它们也鼓励商业银行购买信用风险自由的金融证券，如国债和机构债券。
What you can see is the red line there, post 2008, due to the commercial reforms, there is a tremendous demand by the commercial banks for treasury securities. That wasn't because they had any underlying view of law through author inflation, just because they had all these regulations that strongly encouraged them to do so. And they complied. In this next study, we'll see a little bit more into that.
你能看到的是那条红线，在2008年之后，由于商业改革，商业银行对国债有巨大需求。这并不是因为他们有任何对法律本质通胀的看法，只是因为有大量的法规强烈鼓励他们这么做。他们也遵守了这些规定。在下一篇研究中，我们将会更深入地探讨这个问题。
So the specific regulations that the commercial banks were under that compelled them to buy treasuries are called the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio or the LCR. So 2008 is often thought of as a banking sector crises. Banks bought a whole bunch of assets that were not very good. Those assets went bad, so the banks were basically insolvent.
因此，商业银行必须购买国债的具体规定被称为巴塞尔三号流动性覆盖率或LCR。因此，2008年被称为银行业危机。银行购买了许多不良的资产。这些资产变坏了，因此银行基本上已经破产了。
People who lent money to the banks were very worried that they weren't able to get their money out and started to withdraw their money or stop lending to the bank in mass. And so you had a good old fashioned classic bank run. To make sure that this doesn't happen anymore in the future, regulators post 2008 force banks to hold more liquid assets.
那些向银行借钱的人非常担心他们不能取回他们的钱，开始大规模地提取他们的存款或停止向银行借贷。于是，就出现了经典的银行抢跑情形。为了确保这种情况不会再次发生，2008年之后的监管机构强制银行持有更多的流动性资产。
If they had more liquid assets on hand, say cash on hand, that meant it much less likely for there to be a bank run. And that's what the liquidity coverage ratio does. Liquidity coverage ratio forces the banks to hold a lot of high quality liquid assets to meet potential withdrawals. In practice for bank high quality liquid assets mean treasury securities.
如果他们手头有更多的流动资产，比如说现金，那么银行挤兑的可能性就会少很多。这就是流动性覆盖率的作用。流动性覆盖率规定银行必须持有大量高质量的流动性资产以应对可能的提款。在实践中，对于银行来说，高质量的流动性资产指的是国库债券。
It could mean agency and BS or it could mean cash held at the Fed. This study shows that in order to meet those regulations, banks increased their liquid holdings of treasury securities by a few percent of their total assets. So that's the green line you see over there. Once Basel III LCR was issued, you can see that the green line on the bottom climbed from, let's say about a little bit more than 2% of the total assets of the banking system, to about 5% of the total assets of the banking system. Which we, if you recall, is the huge spike in treasury and agency and BS holdings we saw just a slide before.
这可能意味着银行代理业务和 BS（不良资产），也可能意味着存放在美联储的现金。这项研究表明，为了满足这些监管要求，银行将它们的国债证券流动性持有增加了总资产的几个百分点。因此，您可以在那里看到绿线。一旦发布了巴塞尔 III 的 LCR，您可以看到底部的绿线从银行系统总资产的略高于2％上升到银行系统总资产的约5％。您可能还记得，在上一张幻灯片中，我们看到了国债，代理业务和 BS 持股的巨大激增。
So the last market participant type that I'm going to talk about is the Fed. And the Fed is very special because the Fed is a major market participant, but it's a market participant that's really not trying to make money at all. What the Fed is really concerned about is its two mandates, full employment, and price stability.
接下来我要谈的是市场参与者中的最后一类——美联储。美联储非常特殊，因为它是一个主要的市场参与者，但其实它根本不是在赚钱。美联储真正关心的是它的两个任务目标，即全面就业和价格稳定。
And the way that they think that they can arrive at achieving their mandates is by adjusting interest rates to affect the real economy. And one way to adjust interest rates is to purchase lots of assets, specifically what we call quantity of easing.
他们认为实现自己的任务的方式就是通过调整利率来影响实际经济。 而调整利率的一种方式是大量购买资产，特别是我们所谓的宽松政策。
Now before we talk about QE, I'd like you to look at the chart. This chart shows the total assets held by the Fed and you'll notice just the enormous, enormous influence of the Fed has since 2008. Pre-2008, the Fed had relatively small footprint in the financial markets. But from then till now, their balance sheet has grown to over $8 trillion. So now they're not a small participant in the markets. They are very large participant and they have big impacts on financial prices through their involvement.
在我们讨论量化宽松之前，我想让你看一下这张图表。这张图表展示了美联储持有的总资产，你会注意到自2008年以来美联储的巨大巨大的影响。在2008年之前，美联储在金融市场上的影响相对较小。但自那时以来，他们的资产负债表已经增长到超过8万亿美元。所以现在他们不是市场上的小参与者。他们是非常大的参与者，并通过他们的参与对金融价格产生重大影响。
One other thing you'll note is that the Fed also purchases other assets as well. That green line is the Fed acting as emergency lender of last resort to a wide range of market participants to try to support financial stability.
另外一件你需要注意的事情是，美联储也购买其他资产。那条绿色的线代表美联储作为最后救济的紧急贷款人，向广泛的市场参与者提供贷款来支持金融稳定。
So this last example I'll talk about is quantity of easing. Now quantity of easing is how the Fed is trying to stimulate the economy by lowering longer dated interest rates. So the Fed is looking at the 10-year treasury interest rate and it thinks that if it's 10-year, we're a bit lower, maybe that it would simulate more investment, maybe with stimulant more borrowing.
最后一个我要讲的例子是宽松政策的量化。宽松政策的量化是指美联储通过降低长期利率来刺激经济的方法。美联储关注的是10年期国库券利率，认为如果它降低一些，可能会刺激更多的投资、更多的借款。
So in order to lower the 10-year treasury rate, it goes out and buys a whole bunch of longer dated treasury securities. And when it looks at the mortgage market and it's trying to lower mortgage rates, it goes out it does the same. It goes out and buys a whole bunch of agency MBS. And the FAT is the Fed's attempt to stimulate the economy by lowering longer dated interest rates.
因此，为了降低十年期国债利率，美联储会购买一大批长期国库债券。而当它关注抵押贷款市场并试图降低抵押贷款利率时，美联储会采取同样的措施。它会购买一大批代理机构支持的抵押贷款证券。而FAT是美联储试图通过降低长期利率来刺激经济的举措。
Now, whether or not it actually stimulates the real economy, that is a subject of debate and there are many papers written on it. But I think there's a lot less debate to see that it's very stimulative of financial assets.
无论它是否真正刺激实体经济，这是一个有争议的话题，有许多论文写过。但我认为不容易争议的是，它对金融资产非常有刺激作用。
I think many market participants note that there's a reliable relationship between when the Fed is expanding its balance sheet and when the risk assets go higher. So when the Fed is doing QB, it's not just going and buying at any price to be clear. It holds competitive auctions to try to get market-based prices.
我认为许多市场参与者注意到，美联储扩大其资产负债表时与风险资产上涨之间存在可靠的关系。因此，当美联储进行量宽时，并不是只是以任何价格去购买，它会进行竞争性拍卖来获取市场价格。
However, if the Fed promises to buy say $100 billion a month, that it will do so. And I imagine that probably that might force it to buy prices that some of who wouldn't have to buy it, $100 billion, wouldn't take. So these quantitative easing purchases likely have an impact, not just pricing of the treasuries but the pricing of all assets, simply because they're so huge.
然而，如果美联储承诺每月购买1000亿美元，它将会实现这个承诺。我想这可能会迫使一些不必购买1000亿美元的人也买进。因此，这些量化宽松的购买很可能不仅对国债价格产生影响，而且对所有资产的定价产生影响，因为它们是如此巨大。
Now it's important to keep in mind that this is a factor that is not trying to make money at all and it has an unlimited money printer. So they're there going and shaping market pricing without regard to any fundamental view. They're just doing their job and carrying out monetary policy.
现在需要记住的是，这个因素并不试图赚钱，并且拥有无限量的印钞机。因此，他们正在塑造市场定价，而无视任何基本观点。他们只是在执行货币政策，并执行他们的工作。
So if you were to look at rates or look at financial assets and try to infer some kind of signal about economic conditions from them, it would be very difficult because there's such a large investor in the market who is buying, not because they have a view on economy but because they're trying to shape an outcome.
因此，如果你要看利率或金融资产来推断经济状况的信号，这将是非常困难的，因为市场中有一个巨大的投资者正在购买，而不是因为他们对经济有看法，而是因为他们试图塑造一个结果。
In this class, I linked to a number of studies. And if you're interested in looking at additional reading a little bit more into what we discussed today, this is a list of additional reading and all the links are current. So you should be able to find them just by clicking on the link. And thank you and I'll see you in the next class.
在这个课堂上，我列举了许多研究。如果你有兴趣进一步了解我们今天讨论的内容，这是一份额外阅读的清单，所有链接都是最新的，所以你应该可以通过点击链接找到它们。谢谢，我们下次上课再见。