Tesla's Savage Impact Report in 5 Minutes / What Is GM Doing? ⚡️
发布时间 2023-04-25 20:46:41 来源
摘要
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00:00 - Tesla Prices
00:31 - Cybertruck Battery Pack
1:05 - SuC Opens in China
1:35 - Tesla Weekly Insurance China
2:17 - Song Scrubbing
2:27 - TSLA Stock Valuation
3:16 - Morgan Stanley on TSLA Stock
4:25 - Tesla in Norway
4:46 - Tesla Impact Report
10:32 - GM and Samsung
10:55 - What Is GM Doing?
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#TeslaImpactReport #TeslaStock #GMCruise
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Welcome to electric fide. It's your host Dylan Lumis quick shout out to my newest patrons Jeff H and Amara sale Thank you for choosing to support the channel
欢迎来到Electric Fide。我是主持人Dylan Lumis，特别感谢我的最新赞助者Jeff H和Amara Sale，谢谢你们选择支持该频道。
We touched on this last week, but with the base model Y now under $47,000 it's $759 less than the average new car selling price in the United States when in the middle of last year It was $20,000 more and the model 3 in the black is now $7.8,000 more affordable than the average new car price in the US
上周我们提到过这个话题，但现在基础款 Model Y 的价格已降至 47000 美元以下，低于去年中旬美国新车平均售价 759 美元，而此前它比平均售价贵 20000 美元，Model 3 黑色款现在的价格比美国新车平均售价便宜 7800 美元。
Tesla Roddy highlighted a few different filings that showed Tesla is looking to expand in Fremont and specifically on the second floor This is always going on, but here's why it's interesting now If you've been watching the electrified now for a while you may remember late last year Tesla Roddy reported confirming with sources that Fremont was chosen for the task of kicking off Cybertruck pack manufacturing so Tesla is potentially taking 4680 sales from Kato Road assembling them into modules and packs in Fremont and then they'll ship them to Austin to go into the Cybertruck
特斯拉罗迪强调了几个不同的申报文件，显示特斯拉正在寻求在弗里蒙特扩张，尤其是在二楼。这种情况一直存在，但现在之所以有趣是因为以下原因。如果你一直在关注电动汽车的发展，你可能还记得去年年底特斯拉罗迪通过消息确认，弗里蒙特被选中作为Cybertruck电池包制造的起点。因此，特斯拉可能会从Kato Road收购4680电池，将它们组装成模块和电池组，然后将它们运往奥斯汀，用于Cybertruck的生产。
Tesla Asia tweeted out certain non-Tesla vehicles can now charge at selected super chargers and destination charger stations in China The more non-Tesla vehicles using Tesla superchargers and the Tesla app getting into the ecosystem the better Don't take my word a Goldman Sachs analyst said we estimate the incremental revenue opportunity could be 1 to 3 billion dollars in a few years Just from opening up the supercharger network Which could drive 15 to 75 cents of incremental EPS
特斯拉亚洲在推特上发文称，现在可以在中国部分超级充电站和目的地充电站给某些非特斯拉车辆充电。越多的非特斯拉车辆使用特斯拉超级充电站和特斯拉应用程序进入生态系统，就越好。别只听我的，高盛分析师表示，我们估计未来几年的增量收入机会可能达到10亿至30亿美元，仅靠开放超级充电网络就能带来每股15到75美分的增量收益。
the C and EV post has stopped Reporting the Tesla weekly insurance registration data, but Tesla Chan has seemingly picked up the task So here's that data plugged into the table and if you wanted to compare to the same week in quarter one That number was 7,496 so so far Tesla is ahead of pace relative to Q1 Adding up the first three weeks of quarter one the total was 22.2000 Adding up the first three weeks of quarter two and the total is 29.7000 off to a great start And we're not going to stay here But here's that same data in bar chart form. So pause if you'd like
这篇帖子提到，C和EV等媒体停止了报道特斯拉每周的保险注册数据，但特斯拉专家公众号似乎接手了这项任务。下表中展示了该数据，如果您想与第一季度的同一周进行比较，那个数字是7,496，因此目前特斯拉在第二季度相对于第一季度领先。对于第一季度的前三周，总计为22,200，而第二季度前三周的总计为29,700，开局良好，我们会继续加油。如果您愿意，这里也有同样数据的柱状图形式。
I've yet to find a new reliable source for the BYD figures, but I'll keep looking I know this song scrubbing with timecode feature has been around now for a while But I'd also venture to guess not everybody is aware that it's there So just passing it along.
我仍未找到关于BYD数据的新可靠来源，但我会继续寻找。我知道这个具有时间码特征的歌曲清洗功能已经存在一段时间了，但我也敢猜测不是每个人都知道它的存在，所以我只是想传递这个信息。
Did you guys happen to see that Nvidia is currently trading around 26 times sales and 160 times earnings? Meanwhile here are Tesla's numbers and no, let me be clear I'm not trying to argue I think Tesla should be valued like Nvidia right now Not at all that would be a topic for a separate video
你们有没有注意到Nvidia目前交易的市销率是26倍，市盈率是160倍？同时，以下是特斯拉的数据，但是请注意，我并不是在说特斯拉现在应该像Nvidia一样被评估，这不是我要讨论的话题，我们可以在另一个视频中讨论。
So just for fun if we take Tesla's trailing 12 months earnings per share times the same PE ratio Nvidia has right now That would be a share price of 544 dollars and if we take Tesla's trailing 12 months of total revenue AKA sales multiplied by the current Nvidia price to sales ratio of 26 That would give Tesla a market cap of 2.2 trillion dollars right now Tesla's market cap has been hovering just over 500 billion dollars.
如果我们只是出于娱乐目的，将特斯拉过去12个月的每股收益乘以与Nvidia当前相同的市盈率，那么特斯拉的股价将达到544美元。如果我们将特斯拉过去12个月的总营收（也称为销售额）乘以Nvidia当前的市销率（26），那么特斯拉目前的市值将达到2.2万亿美元。而特斯拉的市值一直在5000亿美元左右徘徊。
So just something to think about in another New note from Morgan Stanley on Tesla stock they say with few exceptions We expect the EV programs of legacy OEMs to remain lost making four years to come and this was prior to Tesla's most recent price cuts and A point that is really worth talking about they say the price for being a competitor in the EV world dominated by Tesla and the Chinese OEMs may be too surrender to accept being a smaller company So how many legacy OEMs will choose to keep their EV prices higher to try to generate some margin versus getting into the price war and trying to gain market share? It's a huge question
当谈到特斯拉股票时，根据摩根士丹利最新的研究报告，他们认为除了少数例外，大多数传统汽车制造商的电动汽车项目在未来四年中依然会陷入亏损状态。这还是在特斯拉最近的价格下调之前的情况。而值得探讨的是，他们说在被特斯拉和中国汽车制造商主宰的电动汽车市场中，成为竞争对手的代价可能是接受做一个较小的公司。那么，有多少传统汽车制造商会选择保持他们的电动汽车价格较高，以试图赚取一些利润，而不是卷入价格战，试图占领市场份额呢？这是一个巨大的问题。
There's also a narrative out there that the IRA tax credits are going to level the playing field when it comes to EVs But Morgan Stanley actually disagrees saying the relative scale and cost advantages still stand out and can represent gaps in operating margin That can be measured in thousands of basis points Our reading of IRA incentive structure for EVs is that it is significantly more positive for Tesla than non-Tesla players Potentially widening the gap in cost performance
有一种说法认为，IRA税收抵免将在电动汽车方面实现公平竞争。但摩根士丹利实际上持不同观点，认为相对规模和成本优势仍然突出，可能导致运营利润出现巨大的差距。我们对于IRA奖励结构的理解是，对于特斯拉而言，它比其他电动汽车制造商受益更大，并且可能会加剧成本绩效方面的差距。
I don't always agree with Jonas and Morgan Stanley but in this case I definitely do I love to this chart from Roland this could be Tesla unwinding the way that could be gigabrahlin ramping It could be Tesla having some extra inventory rolling over Either way, each line here is Tesla sales in Norway for the first month of the quarter And you can see in April things are drastically different so something to keep an eye on
我并不总是同意 Jonas 和摩根斯坦利的观点，但在这种情况下我肯定同意。我喜欢 Roland 的这张图，它可能是特斯拉正在逐步减少股权，也可能是它正在增加产量。它可能是特斯拉库存超过了预期。不管怎样，这里的每条线都是特斯拉在挪威当季的销售情况。你可以看到，四月份的情况有很大的变化，所以需要密切关注。
Tesla's impact report for 2022 came out and it's a beast of a document Incredibly detailed, very impressive from Tesla if you have time I'd encourage you to leave through it But if you don't I did so let's run through the highlights And be ready to pause if you want to read more because we're going to go fast
特斯拉的2022年影响报告已经发布，这是一份非常详细的报告，如果你有时间，我鼓励你浏览一下。但如果你没有时间，我已经看过了，下面让我们快速浏览一些亮点。如果你想要更多的阅读，请准备好暂停。
A huge point we all need to internalize a sustainable energy economy globally will require about half of the actual energy of the fossil fuel economy Why? Because sustainable sources are much more efficient.
我们需要深刻理解的一个重要点是，实现全球可持续能源经济所需的能源量只有化石燃料经济的一半左右。为什么呢？因为可持续能源更加高效。
Tesla has published the world's first battery passport which is basically a digitally traced shipment of their cobalt sourcing using blockchain technology. Why blockchain? Because it's immutable and it's public so if it was private people can adjust it and change it when If it's public on the blockchain that can't happen. If you've been around the space you'll know that there are some not great things that take place in the DRC when it comes to cobalt sourcing so Tesla has created a fair cobalt alliance in a founding membership role focused on improving this situation so that paired with his new battery passport is really awesome to see. Further Tesla has actually got rid of 12 cobalt suppliers and they've increased their direct sourcing of cobalt 255% which was only 50% in 2021.
特斯拉发布了全球首个电池护照，基本上是使用区块链技术追踪其钴采购的数字化装运。为什么使用区块链技术？因为它是不可更改的，并且是公开的，如果是私人的，人们可以进行调整和更改，但如果在区块链上公开，这种情况就不会发生。如果你对这个领域比较了解，你就会知道，在钴采购方面，德国民主共和国发生了一些不太好的事情，因此特斯拉创建了一个公平钴联盟，担任创始成员，致力于改善这种情况，此外，特斯拉实际上已经淘汰了12个钴供应商，并将其直接采购的钴增加了255％，而2021年仅为50％，这是非常令人兴奋的消息。
That whole narrative that Tesla is bad because their anti-union thing. Well how about this data? The effective per hour pay for manufacturing roles at Tesla works out to $32.28. Meanwhile, according to the BLS the average median wage for production associates is only $17.87. So Tesla is almost paying double the going rate.
那些谴责特斯拉因为反工会而被视为不好的说法简直只是无稽之谈。你看看这些数据吧：特斯拉制造岗位的有效小时薪为32.28美元。与此相比，根据美国劳工统计局的数据，生产员工的平均中位数工资仅为17.87美元。所以，特斯拉支付的工资几乎是行业标准的两倍。
This topic deserves a video of its own but Tesla is continually using its connected vehicles to analyze every single real world crash. As well as millions of simulations to continue to make changes to make the vehicle safer using real world data. The study of injuries has been accelerated by the creation of automated data pipelines and by leveraging machine learning to analyze large data sets.
这个话题值得用一段视频来讲解，但特斯拉公司正在利用它的可连通车辆来分析每一个真实世界的事故，同时也利用数百万个模拟来持续改进车辆，利用真实世界数据来使车辆更加安全。由于自动化数据通道的建立以及利用机器学习来分析大数据集，伤害研究正在加速进行。
We all love to analyze gross margins and they're all different depending on which factory the cars are coming from. But don't ever forget with each new factory it's almost a brand new design from a first principle standpoint. I don't need to explain why the Shanghai layout is so much more efficient than the Fremont layout. And we can think about Gigamaxico in future factories being even more revolutionary. And not just in the factory layout but in what's going on in the factory. I'm thinking about the new modular manufacturing strategy that Tesla has planned for the next-gen vehicle. So any competitor modeling itself after Shanghai or Austin is already going to be behind by the time the next-gen factories come online.
我们都喜欢分析毛利率，但不同工厂生产的汽车毛利率不同。但永远不要忘记，每个新工厂都是从第一原则出发的全新设计。我不需要解释为什么上海布局比弗里蒙特布局更高效。而且我们可以思考未来工厂（如Gigamaxico）将变得更加革命性。而且不仅仅是在工厂布局上，还包括工厂内发生的事情。我正在思考特斯拉为下一代车型规划的新模块化制造策略。因此，任何仿效上海或奥斯汀的竞争者，在下一代工厂投入使用时都将落后。
In case you saw this slide where it said the global supercharger network was 100% renewable in 2022. It's because this was achieved through annual renewable matching. Google actually put out a post a few years ago talking about they got to 100% renewable energy through this matching. Basically for every kilowatt hour of electricity they consumed they also purchased a kilowatt hour of renewable energy. It doesn't have to be in the same location or even at the same time. It's really just these companies buying enough renewable energy from anywhere to offset its energy use. It would have been nice to get a percentage split between on-site renewable and this matching. But sadly we did not.
如果你看到这张幻灯片上写着到2022年全球的超级充电站网络将100%使用可再生能源，那是因为这是通过年度可再生能源匹配实现的。几年前，谷歌曾发布过一篇文章，介绍他们是通过这种匹配达到了100%的可再生能源。基本上，他们每消耗一度电，就会购买一度可再生能源，这并不一定要在同一地点或同一时间。这些企业只需要从任何地方购买足够的可再生能源来抵消其能源消耗。如果我们能够获得现场可再生能源和这种匹配之间的百分比分配，那就太好了，但可惜我们没有。
How about that narrative that Tesla's are terrible for the environment because when these batteries hit the end of life. They're just going to end up at a landfill and yada yada. Well, that's actually not true. Tesla said none of our batteries manufacturing scrap or fleet returns go to landfills. Tesla is basically storing all of them that they can't recycle yet for the future when the technology is ready to do so. And yes, Tesla is already recycling at GignaVada. Look at the numbers from 2021 to 2022 in terms of metric tons 1500 of nickel to 2300. 200 cobalt up to 300. And 300 of copper up to 900 in just one year's time. And they've also started lithium recovery as well.
那么，有人说特斯拉的车对环境不好，因为当这些电池寿命结束时，它们最终会被丢到垃圾填埋场等地。这个说法其实并不正确。特斯拉表示，所有生产废料和退役车辆的电池都不会被扔到垃圾填埋场，而是被暂时存储起来，等到技术准备就绪时再进行回收利用。此外，特斯拉已经在吉格纳瓦达开始了回收利用工作。就2021年到2022年间的数据而言，重量单位为公吨，镍的回收量从1500增长到2300，钴的回收量从200增长到300，铜的回收量从300增长到900。同时，他们也开始了钠回收的工作。
When it comes to battery retention, Tesla said that on average vehicles in the US get scrapped after about 200,000 miles. And at that point, Tesla's on average model SNX because they've been out in the wild longer. They have more data. They only lose 12% of their capacity on average.
说到电池保持效果，特斯拉表示美国的汽车平均在行驶约20万英里后报废。这时，特斯拉的平均SNX型号因为已经在外面使用较长时间，所以具有更多的数据。它们平均只会失去12%的容量。
No surprise here, but Universal for 2022 said that SpaceX and Tesla were still the top two destinations for engineers looking to work. This will play out in incredible ways in the long run. Outside of one year dating back to 2010, Tesla has grown its employee headcount every single year. Adding 29,000 employees globally last year. Given that Tesla had 3.6 million job applicants in 2022, we can be fairly confident Tesla is not going to lack talent.
毫不意外，Universal在2022年表示，SpaceX和特斯拉仍是工程师求职的前两个首选地点。从长远来看，这将带来令人难以置信的影响。自2010年以来，除了一年外，特斯拉每年都增加了员工数量。去年全球新增了29,000名员工。鉴于特斯拉在2022年有3.6百万求职者，我们可以相当有信心地认为，特斯拉不会缺乏人才。
That whole Tesla uses way more water than any other automaker narrative. Well, that one also is dead. It's actually the opposite, Tesla is leading the industry in terms of water use per vehicle manufactured. And credit where it's due, BMW is right up there with them.
“特斯拉用水多”这种说法完全是没道理的。相反，特斯拉每生产一辆车的用水量是行业领先的。要承认其贡献，宝马在用水方面也做得不错。
If Tesla ever does choose to advertise it will definitely not have a shortage of talking points. My honest takeaway from the report, it just reiterates how much Tesla cares about doing well for the environment. And all of the… things they're working on way down through the supply chain To put these reports together and tell the world what it's really up to Look, at the end of the day, Tesla is just built different They are mission driven and mission focused And that's part of why so many people around the world love this company
如果特斯拉选择广告，它绝对不会缺乏谈资。我从报告中得出的诚实结论是，特斯拉非常关心环境保护，而且他们一直在从供应链的各个方面进行研究和工作，为此特斯拉不遗余力地组织这些报告，向世界展示真实情况。总的来说，特斯拉真的是与众不同的公司，他们专注于使命，这也是为什么世界各地的人们都热爱这家公司的其中一部分原因。
Here we have GM and Samsung starting a new joint venture investing about $3 billion to build a battery plant in the United States I think they're talking about expected start of production in 2026 And they're aiming for annual production capacity of 30 gigawatt hours And they're set to make high nickel, prismatic and cylindrical battery cells
在这里，通用和三星建立了一个新的合资公司，投资约30亿美元，在美国建立一个电池工厂。我认为他们正在谈论预计的2026年开始生产，并且他们的目标是年产能达到30吉瓦时。他们计划生产高镍的棱柱形和圆柱形电池。
And how about this from GM, we just got it's earnings but potentially much bigger news They're planning to end production of the Chevy Bolt models by the end of this year Now yes, I know that the sales they use in these cars are the older non-alty and batteries But still, we saw that in quarter one of this year GM reached over 20,000 EV sales in the United States Well, as you can see, 19,700 of those were the Chevy Bolt EV or the EUV This was one of the few competitive advantages in the EV market for GM playing in that sub $30,000 category
GM 的新闻可能更大。他们计划在今年年底停止生产 Chevy Bolt 模型。虽然这些汽车使用的是旧式、非阿尔蒂的电池，但在今年第一季度，GM 在美国实现了超过 20,000 辆的电动汽车销量，而其中 19,700 辆是 Chevy Bolt EV 或 EUV。在 EV 市场，这是 GM 的少数竞争优势，因为它在价格低于 30,000 美元的市场中发挥了作用。
When it comes to GM's earnings for the first quarter, they did actually beat on EPS and revenue And they upped their guidance for some metrics for this year Here are the numbers I have not had a chance to dive into them I've really just been going through the Tesla Impact report And GM CFO said they don't think they need to match Tesla's recent price cuts saying they feel good about where they're priced right now
就通用公司第一季度的收益来看，它们的每股收益和收入实际上达到了预期，而且他们提高了今年一些指标的预测。这里是数字，但我还没有时间深入研究。我现在主要在看特斯拉的影响报告。通用首席财务官认为他们不认为需要配合特斯拉最近的价格调整，他们对自己当前的定价感到满意。
And an update on cruise, they're now up to around 240 driverless autonomous vehicles operating in San Francisco However, the cruise division still lost $561 million in the first quarter Kyle Vote, the CEO of cruise, said the cruise is now running 24-7 across all of San Francisco But there are some disclaimers, it's only a small portion of their fleet now serving driverless rides 24 hours a day The fully driverless cars will only be available to cruises power users who are members of the public Who get free rides in exchange for testing out beta features It's really only the customers who ride in cruises vehicles between 10 pm and 5.30 am That are actually paying for their trips And that's only in the northwest section of San Francisco
而就无人驾驶汽车而言，最新消息显示，目前在旧金山运营的无人驾驶汽车已经达到了大约240台。然而，航海部门在第一季度仍亏损了5.61亿美元。Cruise的首席执行官Kyle Vote表示，现在Cruise已经在旧金山全境24小时不间断地运营。但是这里需要注明的是，现在仅有他们车队的一小部分正在提供24小时无人驾驶乘车服务。完全无人驾驶汽车仅可提供给Cruise的忠实用户，他们是公众成员，以测试beta功能为代价获得免费乘车服务。实际上，仅有在每天晚上10点至早上5点半之间乘坐Cruise车辆的客户才会支付车费，这仅限于旧金山西北部的区域。
But most importantly, the billion or a trillion dollar question is how scalable is this technology to other cities For me personally, I definitely have my doubts
然而，最重要的是，这个问题是，这项技术在其他城市的可扩展性如何？对我个人而言，我确实有一些疑虑。
中文意思：这项技术能否在其他城市进行扩展是一个价值数十亿甚至数万亿美元的问题。对于我来说，我确实有一定的怀疑和疑虑。
You can find me on Twitter at Dylan Luma's 22 Hope you guys have a wonderful day Please like the video if you did And a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters
你可以在 Twitter 上找到我，账号是 Dylan Luma's 22。希望你们过得愉快。如果你喜欢这个视频请点个赞。巨大的感谢送给我所有 Patreon 的支持者们。